Ice melt, sea level rise and superstorms: evidence from pale

Hard to overstate the significance of this topic. Unfortunately, the material in here will become more and more depressing as time goes on. Not much hope of any alternative to that.

Re: Ice melt, sea level rise and superstorms: evidence from

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References

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Re: Ice melt, sea level rise and superstorms: evidence from

Postby admin » Sun May 01, 2016 5:46 am

_______________

Notes:

1. Where ocean depth exceeds 1000 m, these conditions yield D D1000 m, thus excluding any first-order abyssal bathymetric imprint on upper ocean eddy energy, consistent with theory and observations. The other objective of the stated condition is to limit release of potential energy in the few ocean gridboxes with ocean depth less than 400 m, because shallow depths limit the ability of baroclinic eddies to release potential energy via vertical motion.

2. Other parts of Fig. 27 are discussed later, but they are most informative if aligned together. In interpreting Fig. 27, note that long-lived greenhouse gas amounts in ice cores have global relevance, but ice core temperatures are local to Greenland and Antarctica. Also, because our analysis does not depend on absolute temperature, we do not need to convert the temperature proxy, ɤ(18) O, into an estimated absolute temperature. We include CH4 and N2O in the total GHG climate forcing, but we do not discuss the reasons for CH4 and N2O variability (see Schilt et al., 2010), because CO2 provides ~80% of the GHG forcing.

3. The tight fit of CO2 and Antarctic temperature (Fig. 28a) implies an equilibrium Antarctic sensitivity of 20° C for 2 CO2 (4 Wm(-2) forcing (200→300 ppm forcing is ~2.3 Wm(-2); Table 1 of Hansen et al., 2000) and thus 10 C global climate sensitivity (Antarctic temperature change is around twice that of global change) with CO2 taken as the ultimate control knob, i.e., if snow/ice area and other GHGs are taken to be slaves to CO2-driven climate change. This implies a conventional climate sensitivity of 4° C for 2 x CO2, as GHG and albedo forcings are similar for glacial-to-interglacial climate change and non-CO2 GHGs account for ~20% of the GHG forcing. The inferred sensitivity is reduced to 2.5–3° C for 2 x CO2 if, as some studies suggest, global mean glacial–interglacial temperature change is only about one-third of the Antarctic temperature change (Palaeosens, 2012; Hansen et al., 2013b).

4. For comparison, our assumed freshwater injection of 360 Gt year(-1) in 2011 with 10-year doubling yields an average mass loss of 292 Gt year(-1) for 2003–2013. Further, Velicogna et al. (2014) find an ice mass loss of 74±7 Gt year(-1) from nearby Canadian glaciers and ice caps with acceleration of 10±2 Gt year(-2), and there is an unknown freshwater input from melting ice shelves. Thus our assumed Northern Hemisphere meltwater was conservative.

5. Planetary energy imbalance induced by meltwater cooling helps provide the energy required by ice heat of fusion. Ice melt to raise sea level 1m requires a 10-year Earth energy imbalance 0.9Wm(-2) (Table S1; Hansen et al., 2005b).
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