Nuclear War Expert: 72 Minutes To Wipe Out 60% Of Humans, In The Hands Of 1 Person! - Annie Jacobsen
by Steven Bartlett
The Diary Of A CEO
May 13, 2024
"I look at the person coming at me as someone who could be on my team or even as an opponent, but not an enemy that I would have to kill."
-- Annie Jacobsen
Annie Jacobsen is an investigative journalist, New York Times bestselling author, and a 2016 Pulitzer Prize finalist. Her books include, ‘Area 51’, ‘Operation Paperclip’, and ‘The Pentagon’s Brain’.
Transcript
Intro
0:00
no matter how nuclear war begins it ends in 72 minutes and 5 billion people would
0:08
be dead do you think there will be a nuclear war so I've interviewed former secretaries of defense the former
0:14
nuclear sub Commander the Secret Service and what I learned was oh my God Annie
0:22
Jacobson investigative researcher and writer who specializes in uncovering the world's biggest secrets We Are One
0:29
misunder standing away from nuclear apocalypse and yet you have presidents threatening nuclear war in fact the
0:36
president of the United States doesn't need to ask anyone to launch a nuclear missile it makes me realize how important the decision to pick our
0:42
leaders is nothing could be more important could you play out scenario where nuclear war broke out yes and I
0:49
can describe in painstaking horrific detail precisely what happens
0:56
so but after nuclear war the survivors would be forced to live underground and
1:02
envy the dead Annie is there anyone you interviewed that brought you to tears
1:07
yes I met a woman who is a survivor of the Nagasaki bomb and I haven't written about this
1:13
yet but someone I interviewed and someone that meant a lot to me wired
1:18
that nuclear weapon that was dropped on Nagasaki can you speaking about the
1:24
impact that it had on both those individuals and it's horrifying
1:30
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1:57
[Music] episode Annie you wrote this book about nuclear war
Why Write This Book Now?
2:02
and published it in March 2024 the timing of this book seems to be
2:10
a little bit coincidental when I or not when I look at what's going on in the
2:16
world at the moment why did you write a book about nuclear war and why did you
2:21
write it now as an investigative journalist before nuclear war a scenario
2:28
I had written six previous books all of which are about the military and
2:35
intelligence organizations in the United States DARPA Area 51 always the Pentagon
2:40
the CIA that's my that's my beat and think about how many sources I have in
2:46
each book a hundred or more how many covering all the wars by the way since
2:52
World War II all these intelligence and Military programs uh intensely kinetic
2:59
and think of how many people said to me with a kind of Pride I dedicated my life
3:07
to preventing nuclear World War III that's always the idea in the defense department and in the CIA we are there
3:15
to prevent nuclear war and so during the previous administration former president
3:22
Trump there was this presidential rhetoric going on you may recall fire
3:27
and fury Trump and the president of North Korea the leader of North Korea
3:33
threatening this kind of thing and I like many I'm sure began to wonder my
3:39
God what if deterrence another word for prevention
3:45
fails and that is the question that I put to all of those sources in the book
3:51
and that result is nuclear war a scenario what was your
3:58
intention I wanted to show in horrific detail just
4:05
how horrible just how apocalyptic nuclear war will be because I think many
4:14
people have forgotten or don't know to begin with
4:20
the consequences of a nuclear exchange as I show in the book almost
4:26
certainly if a nuclear exchange happens and we're talking strategic ballistic missiles it will not stop until the
4:33
world ends and we are talking about in seconds and minutes not in days and
4:40
weeks and months that is astonishing when did you start writing
4:46
the book when was the first word written so probably during covid was the first
4:52
word written but keep in mind my reporting on nuclear weapons goes back
4:57
my entire career my first book Area 51 is about a a joint CIA Air
5:04
Force Base out there in the Nevada desert inside a secret test and training
5:11
range where the United States government used to explode nuclear weapons
5:16
atmospheric nuclear weapons in the 50s and so my when I was reporting Area 51 I
5:23
inter I wound up quite literally I did not intend to but I wound up interviewing
5:30
the people who armed wired and fired those nuclear weapons early Manhattan
5:36
Project members and they that was kind of my B story of Area
5:41
51 and what I learned was like oh my God
5:46
and I was also surprised to learn that most people didn't even know we the American government set off a hundred
5:52
some odd atmospheric nuclear weapons in the desert in Nevada testing them so my
5:58
reporting to answer that's a long- winded answer of I've been on this issue
6:04
peripherally you know for years for more than a decade but the idea in this book
6:10
the word one as you ask was like once I understood that nuclear war is a
6:16
sequence it begins the first fraction of a second after detection then I could
6:22
see clearly oh my God it's a ticking clock scenario because it just all
6:27
happened so fast I ask that again because so if you started writing the first word of the book on nuclear war in
Are We Getting Closer to Nuclear War?
6:35
Co sort of 2020 2020 roughly 2021 around there 20
6:41
2021 yeah since then things have escalated around the world in terms of conflict in a way that I imagine you
6:47
couldn't have forecasted and even it's almost ironic that in the month that your book was published Putin moved I
6:53
think he moved nuclear weapons into bellarus and the rhetoric and he started saying that he would use them and if you
6:58
look at the terminology him and his commanders are using towards the world it seems like we're at a moment that I
7:04
haven't seen in my lifetime where the subject of nuclear war seems to be more real than ever before you're absolutely
7:11
right and that is astonishing because in 2021 when I began the
7:17
interviews people were forthcoming with me you know as you know from the list of
7:22
sources I've interviewed former secretaries of defense former nuclear sub Commander you know former former
7:29
stratcom Commander former FEMA director former cyber Chief and a lot of these
7:36
individuals shared with me in 2021 this idea that wow the world has kind of
7:42
forgotten that the nuclear threat is always there and so over the course of
7:50
reporting and writing you're absolutely right that the geopolitical temperature of the world
7:57
has escalated to a point point that you have not seen in your lifetime and I haven't seen in my
8:04
lifetime setting the stage even more we talked about how possible nuclear war is
Who Is in Charge of the Nuclear Button?
8:11
but one thing I learned from reading your book which actually surprised me was that it doesn't take thousands of
8:17
people to agree on a nuclear war for it to begin in the case of the United States it only takes one person to make that
8:24
decision which I find quite unnerving that there's one individual that could theoretically make the
8:31
decision that would destroy the Earth you're absolutely right and this kind of
8:37
thing is surprising to almost everyone one of the things that I strive to do in
8:43
my reporting is take very complex Science and Technology military
8:50
issues and simplify them down for the Layman just for the average Joe or the
8:56
average Jane and I do that by interviewing the really smart really knowledgeable
9:04
people on those subjects I have two things going for me perhaps as an
9:09
investigative journalist that help in conveying the story is that I'm not a scientist and so I can ask questions
9:17
that the average person would ask like really try and help me understand this whatever this is and then also that I
9:25
have a real interest in making what is conveyed to me make
9:32
sense to other people in their lives right so and also perhaps make them
9:38
realize I never even stopped to think about the fact how strange is it that the United States President this is what
9:45
you learned in the book and you're talking about the United States president has sole presidential authority to launch a nuclear war what
9:51
does that mean it's exactly like it sounds what's so interesting is a lot of this stuff this nomenclature that gets
9:57
thrown at you if you just break down it's Soul solo presidential he's the
10:04
podus authority he doesn't have to ask anyone for permission not the SEF not
10:10
the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff not the Congress I love the worried look on your face in this moment
10:16
because it is once you know that you say well first you might Google
10:23
is it really true and you will get for example on Reddit like that's not really
10:29
true you'll get like hundreds of thousands of people you know coming in with their opinions but how that's not
10:35
really true well it is really true it's absolutely true and in fact during the
10:40
former president Trump Administration Congress became so sort
10:46
of I want to say motivated or alarmed by this issue meaning they were being asked questions by the powers that be is this
10:54
actually true that they released a report stating specifically and quote it in the book yes it is true as
11:02
commanderin-chief the president has this sole Authority he doesn't need to ask
11:07
anyone and hopefully sort of my bringing sort of Concepts like that to the four
11:14
right away the reader can then become engaged and they say well that's weird
11:19
why and then I can give you a very simple answer without necessarily taking
11:25
you through the whole history of presidential Authority but it has to do with the ticking clock of it and I
11:31
explained to you right away that a ballistic missile travels from one
11:36
continent it's called an ICBM people have heard of that intercontinental ballistic missile again exactly like it
11:44
sounds it can travel from one continent to the next in roughly 30 minutes
11:50
carrying a nuclear warhead to strike a Target once you realize wait a minute there are only 30 minutes this isn't
11:58
like hey guys should did we go have a war in Iraq let's discuss this let's debate this let's take it to the
12:04
Congress this is there is a ballistic missile sir coming at the United States
12:10
and you must act and that's why in the
12:15
simplest layman's terms sole presidential Authority exists so let's
12:21
define then what these weapons are we've many of us have seen that film up inimer we saw them out in the desert I think in
The Evolution of Nuclear Weapons
12:27
New Mexico playing playing with with all these weapons and eventually making this one bomb that they would then drop drop in
12:34
Japan the weapon we see in that film which was in the 19 made in the 1940s that ultimately led to the end of the
12:39
war is that the same weapon that we're talking about today no well in in in
12:45
sort of principle in yes meaning it's an atomic bomb but there's two things that
12:51
separate where we are now one has to do with the size and the power of the bomb
12:57
so the the in 194 5 there were atomic bombs now there are thermonuclear bombs
13:03
so an atomic bomb is used inside a thermonuclear weapon as the trigger okay
13:11
it is a bomb inside a bomb and the power of the thermonuclear bomb is so
13:17
astonishingly you know destructive you can read the details I interviewed Richard Garwin who designed the first
13:24
thermonuclear bomb for Edward Teller when he was 24 years old I interview me in his '90s he explains to me and I
13:32
explain to you what the power is behind that but this so the atomic bomb and and
13:37
it has to do with size like the old atomic bomb the one that was dropped on Hiroshima was the size of a small
13:43
elephant okay 15 kilotons in a big giant elephant-sized bomb inside of an
13:50
aircraft having to fly from tinan Island to over Hiroshima where it drops in an
13:57
aircraft that all changed when we brought the Nazi
14:03
scientists to us oh let's have let's figure out how to do two things let's figure out how to create more powerful
14:10
bombs that's the result the result is the thermonuclear bomb and let's make them smaller we can't load an
14:17
elephant-sized weapon into the top of a ballistic missile it needs to be smaller and so so much of this buildup was about
14:24
creating more powerful weapons to be smaller in size and then you see the military-industrial
14:31
complex you you can imagine and I do this as a history lesson in just a few short pages to try to bring readers up
14:37
to speed without losing the drama of the narrative
14:43
and the results if you flash forward to where we are now which is where we've been for a very long time is a nuclear
14:49
Triad just like it sounds three parts we have icbms silos under the ground so
14:57
those are weapons hidden in the ground ground in the United States there are 400 of them there were more now there
15:03
are 400 you can find out where they are on a map they're in silos underground
15:08
silos across the Midwest and the west then we have our nuclear armed
15:14
nuclear powerered submarines that carry that same kind of concept of a
15:20
ballistic missile with a warhead in its nose cone we have those same systems on
15:27
submarines and the technology behind it is astonishing I take the reader through it fast from the experts who explain it
15:34
to me in a digestible way and those systems lurk around in the oceans all 24
15:43
hours a day seven days a week 365 days a year they're called the handmaidens of
15:49
the Apocalypse they're almost impossible to find right they are impossible to find the nuclear the former nuclear
15:55
force subc Commander um Admiral Connor had this great way of describing
16:02
it to me when I said like how hard is it to find a sub he said Annie it's easier
16:07
to find a grapefruit sized object in
16:13
space than a nuclear sub under the sea and it's not just the United States that
Who Has Nuclear Weapons?
16:18
have these weapons which I think is important to say there's many people listening all around the world now who
16:24
have these weapons in their country to you list um several of those countries I think it's nine countries in total that
16:29
has nuclear weapons right what are those countries I know we have them back in the UK yeah there are nine nuclear armed
16:35
Nation also really interesting to think about that the whole sort of let's have a Triad let's have all these weapons
16:41
that we will you we will have a concept of mutual assured destruction so we will have these weapons but we will never use
16:47
them because everyone would be destroyed those Concepts go back to the 50s when there were only two nuclear armed
16:54
Nations the United States and Soviet Russia so you know really making all of
17:00
this more precarious talk looping back to your you know notion that like my God
17:07
we are at this precipice of danger which we are is because there are nine nuclear
17:13
armed Nations many of which are in direct conflict with others or their
17:19
neighbors and they are the US Russia China the UK France India and Pakistan
17:29
Israel North Korea and there's some threat that
17:35
Iran are trying to absolutely I mean this is a very very very
17:41
significant threat and you really have to look I think the book I stay away
17:47
from the sort of geopolitical posturing or analysis or even um you know opinion about the
17:56
political aspect of all of this but but I think readers get to take their away
18:01
their and have because I have read a lot of the responses and had a lot of really
18:06
interesting conversation since the book published a month ago but yes you can
18:12
take away what you think about the fact what my God you put a tenth nuclear
18:18
armed nation in here that is Iran how more destabilizing is that going to
18:26
be to Safety and Security and when I look at the list of countries
18:32
um you've written about that have these nuclear weapons the US Russia they're both basically in proxy wars at the
18:38
moment with obviously the the war going on in Ukraine think about Pakistan and India um Israel and Iran you know
18:46
they're both at conflict fly throwing different missiles at each other and DRS at each other at the moment um the UK
18:53
and France are obviously part of NATO so they're kind of sucked into the whole Russia Ukraine us conflict that's going
18:59
on that proxy war there these countries right now many of them I think the majority of them are involved in a
19:05
direct war or some form of proxy war as it is and with many of these wars it's
19:10
hard to find the way that it ends the way out the kind of golden bridge because Ukraine aren't going to relent
19:16
so Russia aren't going to necessarily decide one day that they're going to lose the war that would cause
19:22
significant ramifications for Putin his reputation and Russia as a whole the US can't let Ukraine lose for a variety of
19:29
geopolitical reasons and then at the same time all this conflict started in Israel following the the attack in
19:34
Israel which has sucked Iran in in much of that region it all seems like you know these are the countries right now
19:41
that are involved in the conflict that is scaring many much many of us um in a significant way
19:48
and if all these countries operate in a similar way where there's one individual that can make the decision to release
19:54
those weapons it is quite scary the UN
19:59
Secretary General said recently that we are one misunderstanding one
20:06
miscalculation away from nuclear Armageddon and so the scary part of it
20:13
is that when you look at that sort of verbage right when I talk about you know
20:18
nuclear Armageddon nuclear apocalypse nuclear Holocaust those are words out of the
20:27
mouths of some of these leaders so there is a very clear notion that if
20:33
nuclear war starts it ends civilization that is almost certainly
20:40
known among the leaders and yet you have people like the president
20:46
of Russia and the president of the United States and the leader of North Korea throwing around threats and terms
20:56
you know the leader of North Korea recently accused the United States of having a
21:01
Sinister intention of provoking nuclear war I mean that is a provocation on top
21:08
of a provocation you know embedded in but to your point what's the point of
21:13
being scared well the point is to
21:18
realize that paity is not necessarily the answer that your knowledge of this
21:25
situation leads to that's just that's just the history of of civilization one of the things it did
What Is the Football and Why Is Near the President 24/7?
21:32
make me think when I realized that there's one individual in in the United States where we are now who can make
21:38
that decision and that there's basically like someone following the president with a briefcase called that it's like
21:44
the football or something yes what is that football for people that don't know yeah and so so now that people know
21:50
about the football or whe they read it you'll you'll see you can see in photographs of the president you will
21:55
almost if he's in frame you'll see the Aid that's the military aid an
22:01
individual who is assigned to be with the president 24/7 365 and inside the
22:07
football it's called the emergency satal are two important things there's in
22:13
instrumentation that allows the president to be identified as the president to the National military
22:21
command center which is the nuclear bunker beneath the Pentagon okay so it's a it's a call and response authent
22:30
authentication and then there is something called colloquially the black
22:36
book and it was told to me the reason it's called the black book is because it involves so Much Death and what the
22:43
black book is is a list of nuclear strike options for the president to
22:48
choose from and so once the president is notified that a ballistic missile is
22:54
coming at the United States and he has to make a decision about a Counterattack he must look quickly
23:01
because as you learn in the book and as I learned from presidents uh there is a six minute window of decision making and
23:10
so there's no time for a Roundtable discussion there is a list of options
23:17
that has been pre-prepared for the president to choose from and I interviewed for the book
23:25
someone who actually was responsible for some of those decisions in the 880s and
23:32
he described to me in appalling detail what it was like to have worked on this
23:39
in the Pentagon like worked out numerically different targets and why
23:46
they would be Targets in said strike XYZ or Q against said nation and then later
23:53
seeing the black book and realizing the like sort of transmutation of that
23:58
information information to what was described by the only Mill Aid who's ever gone on the record speaking about
24:04
this as essentially like a Denise menu list of options
24:10
and so you understand that this list is so watered down into strike options and
24:19
there is so little time that the president in essence has really no
24:25
idea what he's striking and how many millions people will be killed when I
How Important Is Picking the Right Leader?
24:31
hear that it makes me realize how important the decision to pick our leaders is something I didn't realized
24:36
before nothing could be more important and yet I learned in the book and I'm talking about from former secretaries of
24:43
defense people very close to the president that most presidents are ill
24:49
informed about their role as commander-in-chief in a nuclear war
24:54
because and it was said to me most don't want to know and again so this brings us
24:59
back to that Paradox of deterrence the original question I asked in writing and
25:04
Reporting this book what if deterrence fails deterrence is this idea we will have so many nuclear weapons pointed at
25:12
the other side they will have so many nuclear weapons pointed at us no one would be insane enough to let any of
25:19
them loose that's how we all stay safe another way of saying deterrence is more
25:25
nuclear weapons make us more safe you can decide if you think that's a little or a wellan but that is what
25:32
exists okay so with that in mind we should really be doing mental checks on
25:39
our leaders every three months because we've all probably had an experience
25:45
with someone who's had a episode you know and I'll I'll leave it
25:52
at episode because there's a variety of different types of episodes one can have and I was thinking well if the president just has a bit of an episode
25:58
and gets a little bit paranoid or you know sort of has a little bit of a schizophrenic paranoia which can happen to people for
26:05
a variety of different unpredictable reasons then that President could potentially make a decision to end the
26:11
planet and there doesn't seem to be a defense mechanism to stop him doing that or her doing that you're reminding me of
26:18
a famous story when Nixon was president and it was during the Watergate scandal he probably knew the end of his
26:25
presidency was near and he was very drunk one night and he began to threaten
26:32
or rather he just began to talk you know in in this sort of extremely verbose drunken manner about how he could end
26:38
the world or kill tens of millions of people with the push of a button and his
26:43
it is said that that Kissinger called up the military and said if the president orders any kind of a nuclear strike talk
26:50
to me first really and do you so do you think that would have
26:56
happened I mean we you know it's hard to know isn't it all of these stories
27:02
unless they come out of the mouth of the individual who actually said that are in
27:07
essence stories so there's an element of Truth to them for sure um you know the
27:13
actual command and control who's going to follow the rules people ask me that
27:18
question o often and I took that exact question like you know I think people
27:24
have a niev that if you're in the nuclear command and control whether you're missileer in a an underground
27:29
silo or a Submariner on a sub that you might when you get this command suddenly
27:36
have this heart you know like in a Hollywood movie have this moment where you say my goodness I'm going to save
27:41
the planet rather than destroy it I put that question to Dr Glenn
27:47
McDuff the historian at the classified museum at Los Alamos the one you and I
27:53
can't go see um and I said do you think that could happen and he said
27:58
Annie you have a better chance at winning Powerball than betting on
28:04
someone in the nuclear chain of command and control to defy orders and I said
28:10
why and he said well you are trained to follow orders I spoke to a CIA agent or
What If the President Is Dead?
28:18
should I say a former CIA agent called Andrew Bustamante might have seen him does some podcasts and um after speaking
28:24
to him I I completely agree because as he said he was trained to basically he was selected and trained on
28:31
the basis that he would follow orders in that moment and they even do drills to make sure dummy drills to make sure that
28:37
they're prepared I guess psychologically to follow through all those instructions it made me think as well that if if um
28:44
what if the president's dead what if the president is hit by a nuclear weapon
28:49
from another country and now they can no longer make the decision is the decision deferred onto somebody else well I take
28:56
the reader through that precisely because those are the kind of questions that I had to ask of my sources as I was
29:02
reporting this on the one hand as I was learning what happens in the seconds and minutes you know after a launch is
29:09
detected because we have a satellite system that detects the launch of a nuclear weapon in under a fraction of a
29:15
second but it's not always very trustworthy this is why I'm concerned the ours is very trustworthy as far as I
29:20
understand it's called cbers it's built by Lockheed and it's astonishingly powerful other nations do not have that
29:27
same kind of Technology cuz I was reading about the sort of historic um mistakes that were made sometimes people thought there was a a nuclear bomb or a
The Biggest Mistakes in Nuclear Detection
29:34
strike coming and it was actually just a bunch of swans absolutely I was a little bit like I me these are these are you
29:40
know this is the one miscalculation one misunderstanding away from nuclear arm again what what are those instances from
29:46
history where the nuclear detection system was triggered and someone in some country decided um not to follow through
29:54
on a notification I think the most interesting stories that I report come
30:00
from the person who is an actual firsthand witness to it because what often happens is the telephone game you
30:07
know whereby one person tells the story and then your imagin you add a detail so I write about a couple of them in the
30:13
book but one of them came to me firsthand and I'll share that with you which was former Secretary of Defense
30:19
Bill Perry and he was on the night watch during the Carter Administration he
30:24
wasn't the secretary of defense yet he had like the job before that the director of research and Engineering at
30:30
the Pentagon but it was his his night watch informed the president job and he
30:36
was told by the National military command center which is the bunker beneath the
30:41
Pentagon that there were ballistic missiles on the way from Soviet
30:47
Russia this was confirmed by the nuclear bunker beneath offet Air Force Base in
30:54
Nebraska the stratcom bunker and not only were intercontinental ballistic missiles
31:00
flying at the United States but they were subl launched ballistic missiles coming at the United States and it was a
31:07
massive motherload of warheads and Perry described to me as I
31:13
recount in the book what that was like to try and process in your mind oh
31:21
my God I'm going to have to tell the president and going to have to and he is
31:27
going to have to make make a Counterattack and within a matter of
31:33
minutes he got word that it was a mistake and a mistake you might ask like
31:39
a mistake how does a mistake happen what he told me was that it was a VHS tape a
31:46
simulated war game a simulated attack by
31:51
the Soviet Union against the United States and the VHS tape had mistaken ly been inserted into
31:59
a machine in the nuclear bunker beneath the Pentagon and because it is linked to stratcom it was seen in both
32:07
places and Perry said to me it looked real because it was meant to look
32:15
real there was a president you talk about that played a nuclear war game and
Nuclear War Games and Strategies
32:23
discovered that there could be no winners so proud
32:29
profit is one of the few a very rare Declassified nuclear war
32:36
game people talk about you know jealously guarded secrets in the United States government you can be sure that
32:42
anything having to do with nuclear war gaming is way up there in the top
32:48
secrets along with what is actually in that black book but the proud profit war
32:54
game was Declassified Reagan had ordered it I don't believe he participated in it his sect Des everybody in the Comm
33:01
nuclear command and control participated it for two weeks in 1983 and this is Declassified I reprint
33:08
some of it in the book and if you have a look at it you might say to yourself what's the point of
33:15
declassifying something that looks like this it's just black it's like there's a number here and a word there and a page
33:21
number but mostly it's entirely redacted and so what's the point of De
33:27
classifying it well for the public something very valuable came out of that which is it allowed a certain civilian
33:36
who was participating a Yale Professor named Paul Bracken to actually speak
33:41
about it in a general way he couldn't you know couldn't tell opsac but he
33:47
could generally talk about it and what he said in his own book was that no
33:52
matter how nuclear war begins NATO is involved NATO is not involved China is
33:58
involved China's no matter how it begins it ends in nuclear Armageddon and
34:03
bracken's words was that everyone left really
34:08
depressed nuclear Armageddon essentially means the world is destroyed nuclear Armageddon is the world is destroyed and
34:14
when you get to the end of the book which happens in 72 minutes and that comes from something that former
34:21
stratcom director General Keeler said to me when we were discussing and interviewing and I said we I asked him
34:28
about what could happen if there was a nuclear exchange between Russia and the United States and he said the world
34:35
could end in the next couple of hours so from where we are now in this
34:40
conversation to the end of this conversation if a nuclear war broke out and we were sat here by the end of this
34:46
conversation basically the entire world would be destroyed and you and I wouldn't even know before the first
34:52
Missile hit that was shocking to me to have that confirmed in essence by uh
34:57
Obama FEMA director so FEMA the Federal Emergency Management agency is the is
35:03
the agency in the United States that's in charge of disasters right so if there's a hurricane or a flood or an
35:08
earthquake FEMA steps in to help the people they have something called population protection planning Craig
35:16
Fugate was Obama's FEMA director for eight years and he just covered an extraordinary amount of catastrophes in
35:22
the United States he was also responsible for planning for a nuclear war he told me they did that he also
35:28
said we plan for asteroid strikes these are called Low probability High
35:34
consequence events but what Fugate told me that was shocking is that there is no
35:40
population protection planning in a nuclear war because everyone will be dead and he explained to me that there's
35:47
nothing that that the that he could do as FEMA director he would really be putting his efforts from this nuclear
35:54
bunker where he would be which is called Mount weather he would be putting his efforts on the continuity of government
36:01
issues the continuity of like the government has what are called essential
36:07
functions so and you know as a nuclear war is happening the government is trying to prepare to keep the government
36:15
running which is a form of fantasy in itself and when you read fugates
36:21
interviews with me he's just so candid about how there is nothing anyone can do
36:28
and you know what he told me was so shocking I went back to him and said
36:33
like I just want to really make sure these are your actual quotes that you that that and he absolutely you know he
36:41
was one of the first people to write an Amazon review of the book after it published here in the United States and
36:49
I find that both terrifying but also heartening for this reason is that a lot
36:56
of these people who leave office because my sources are all former and then the
37:03
title they when they are in the command and control they are very focused on
37:08
doing their job hence what we spoke about earlier about like following orders they are civil servants they are
37:15
dedicated civil servants they believe in National Security they believe in you
37:20
know the perseverance of government and then they leave office and they are just
37:26
regular people again and that's when the heart I think begins to lead and
37:33
particularly as people get older because I interview a lot of people in their 80s and 90s and then they begin to think about
37:42
what this means in terms of Legacy what is nuclear command and
37:49
control really as buttoned up as this is might be them talking you know as as I
37:56
thought and is it a good idea in a world that is
38:01
so rapidly changing both geopolitically and also in terms of Technology was
How Do the Decision Makers Cope?
38:09
there one individual you met that comes to mind when I ask who the most troubled
38:14
person was in terms of the work they participated in or troubled in the context
38:20
of what they know and what it means for Humanity and how they're grappling with that the most concerned and sort of of
38:27
the most activated by all means would be former Secretary of Defense Bill Perry and he's now in his 90s and I I don't
38:34
believe he's doing interviews anymore but it it's not surprising that Perry shared with me his intense worry about
38:43
all of this because he has been actively working on this and you know
38:49
for at least 152 years and when I say this I mean bringing the information to
38:57
the public so that the public is aware he wrote his own book with a colleague called the button and he has you know
39:04
really he did a podcast called at the brink and what's fascinating is Perry
39:10
spent most of his life dedicated to what you might call the military industrial
39:15
complex right to the research and development of weapon systems that I
39:21
write about in my other books the DARPA book in particular because this is all
39:26
part and partial to what we're talking about here that you have this sort of
39:32
Industry military weapon system industry that is in a constant state of forward
39:39
movement it's deeply tied to economics to jobs to prosperity and so where does
39:46
that take us and and at what point does it end it was Eisenhower who said in his
39:51
famous speech where the public really learned about this so-called military-industrial complex because
39:58
Eisenhower spoke of it in his farewell speech but he also said an important thing in the second half of that speech
40:04
which doesn't get nearly as much airtime which is that a knowledgeable and alert
40:10
citizenry is how you balance sort of an idea of peace with an idea of
40:17
defense and I think what frightens both of us that we talked about in the beginning here was that peace and
40:23
defense are very different than constant states of
40:29
War 72 minutes you you go through this in the
How Would We Know Where the Nuclear Bomb Got Launched From?
40:34
book minute almost minute by minute showing exactly what will happen we know in those first couple of minutes there's
40:39
a notification that there's a you know a nuclear bomb coming in from somewhere my question on that was and I was thinking
40:45
about this earlier as we were talking about it how does the president know how does the world leader of that country know the prime minister of the UK
40:51
whoever it might be or Netanyahu or Putin know where that nuclear bomb has
40:57
come from because we talked about this sort of black black book of places this menu that the president has in that
41:04
football that his Aid is carrying around how does he know which place to pick on
41:09
the menu to send a nu CLI bom back powerful distinction right this is not 911 where suddenly there are planes in
41:16
the Trade Center towers and you know everyone is scrambling to say who did
41:21
this and the CIA is saying this is Al-Qaeda it has the mark of but no one knows for sure this is not that this is
41:29
the fact that for 79 years the United States has been building nuclear weapons
41:35
nuclear weapons systems and also systems to detect other people's nuclear weapons
41:41
should they have them okay but what if the submarines okay so good point on the submarines which is but we have a set of
41:50
satellites called cbers which are parked now I'm only when you said what how
41:56
would Netanyahu know how how would the president of r that is a different
42:01
scenario what I am talking about is the US president because I have interviewed
42:07
people in the US defense department and the intelligence community and the defense department knows precisely where
42:16
a weapon comes from within a second of launch because the cber satellites can measure the hot rocket exhaust so you
42:23
imagine a Rocket taking off lots of fire beneath it that is measured from 22,000 Mi up in geosync I
42:31
mean that is just a technological astonishment and then there Begins the
42:37
data sent down to these various commands in the United States the Aerospace data
42:42
center the space force and they begin measuring the trajectory of the missile
42:48
and figuring out where it's going to go like it's not going to Moscow and it's not going to Guam those would be opposite directions is it going to San
42:55
Francisco or is it going to the East Coast that is learned in 100 seconds
43:01
approximately okay now you are right you cannot you if some if a submarine
43:07
launches a ballistic missile there's no way of knowing where that came from which is why in the scenario I have that
43:14
happen and it creates a whole other set of problems what are those I I mean I
43:20
mean what is the answer to that cuz I was imagining if the cber system sees a nuclear bomb coming out of the Pacific
43:26
Ocean I mean that could be rishy sunak that could be that could be the UK firing one
43:32
at America it could be you know could be anybody you are absolutely right that there is no way of knowing and in the
43:39
scenario that I chose because I wanted to try to take the reader through a logical sequence if you could even call
43:46
any of this logical because it's all you know they call it mad Mutual assured destruction it's really
43:51
Madness but you cannot know who launched that uh so does we just go for our enemy
43:58
in that situation I mean do you know what I mean now you have a new task you are going to
44:05
right nuclear war an even worse scenario well because that's what you would do
44:10
right if you're President Biden your a turns during goes hi president there's a nuclear bomb heading our way I go I know
44:16
who exactly who that who did that and and you might start firing a couple of
44:21
back back just the people that you assume would do it and then they do the same
44:28
um the nuclear armed submarines that are owned by Russia and
44:36
China regularly come within a couple hundred miles of East Co of each coast
44:42
of the United States and you can assume the same about England and how do we know this well you can't see a submarine
44:50
moving in real time but you can track the submarines movements after the fact
44:56
owing to a very complex system of underwater surveillance systems that we
45:03
have in place and there's a map that appeared in a recent defense department
45:10
budget request to Congress which I reproduce in the book that shows just
45:15
how close those submarines those enemy submarines get to the coast and that
45:21
reduces the travel time of a ballistic missile down to under 10 minutes
45:27
and so this idea that we really are living at the edge of Apocalypse is not an exaggeration the question is how
45:35
would this start why would this start again read the scenario and you begin to
45:43
realize this could start in or have a discussion with you and you this could start in so many the training test tape
45:51
I mean and the real takeaway is asking ourselves is why did n of us know about
45:57
this or most of us rather there's so many ways this could
What Happens After the First Minutes?
46:03
start and one of them one of them obviously again has emerged front of mind for society since you started
46:08
writing the book which is artificial intelligence before I get to that though I really want to I really want to close off on this 72 minutes I understand the
46:16
first couple of minutes there um what does the person listening to this need
46:21
to know about what happens in the subsequence what are 60 minutes there's a very fast process
46:28
where the trajectory of the ballistic missile is being determined and we're
46:33
talking in the first minutes of the sequence because everyone is getting ready to tell the president because what
46:38
they're going to tell the president is Sir you need to choose a Counterattack that is called get the blue clock
46:44
running does the president not like get in some plane super quick so we'll get there in a second that's where the
46:50
that's the decision tree problem okay so everyone is working on figuring out the trajectory of the ballistic missile
46:57
and there is the first confirmation when you see it and by the way a ballistic missile cannot be redirected or recalled
47:05
cannot be now ultimately the defense department will wait for second
47:11
confirmation of that missile from a ground radar system we have them around the world the one in the scenario that
47:18
would see it is in Alaska it has to be able to see and confirm that missile is
47:24
definitely coming this way and that happens at around 8 or 9 minutes and so
47:30
the process in between them everyone's getting ready to brief the president about a Counterattack and so in the
47:37
scenario the president learns around three minutes and then they're waiting on the secondary confirmation and in my
47:43
interviews with the Secret Service as I was reporting the book interesting things would happen exactly
47:49
like your question like wait a minute what would would the president be
47:55
staying at the White House so I as the reporter put that question to the former director of The Secret Service who
48:00
explains to me how there is a team called the counter assault team um and
48:06
that is that is the sort of paramilitary organization of the C of the Secret
48:11
Service that's going to always be there to move the president really fast if need be and in this situation they make
48:20
a decision we're moving him if the target is Washington DC or anywhere on
48:25
the E East Coast for that matter we cannot have the president anywhere near Ground Zero and their job that they are
48:33
sworn to do is to protect the president and so that then you're going to have a bit of a stalemate because the military
48:41
command wants the president on on comms to be able to give him Counterstrike
48:46
orders that is what they want and they can only get those orders from the
48:51
president but the secret service has a totally different agenda and in my scenario the Secret Service considering
48:58
they're the only ones in the room that are armed win they take the president out and he flies out of Washington DC in
49:07
Marine One Marine one being the helicopter the helicopter that is that yeah you know and then I learned even
49:12
more interesting details like okay so in the scenario the likely situation is
49:18
that the electromagnetic pulse will really threaten the the electronic system in Marine 1 and it will be in
49:24
deep danger of crashing for people that don't know for people that don't know an an electromagnetic pulse is like a thre
49:31
pulsed sort of shock wave that essentially just zeros out Electronics
49:37
imagine your house getting struck by lightning a direct hit and no surge
49:43
suppressor I mean it's just it's all the electronics go out and that will almost certainly happen Marine one is outfitted
49:51
retrofitted against EMP attack because they think about these things but no one
49:57
knows if it's going to really work it's been tested in a chamber there so what you're saying sorry just to clear is
50:02
that whoever's attacking the United States or another country would send an electronic pulse first no the pulse is
50:10
part of the of the bomb going on okay it's it's a it's inherent in the nuclear explosion okay and so even if even if
50:16
you're getting the president out if he's 78 n miles 10 miles out of ground zero
50:22
as they rush because remember this is all happening in 30 minutes under 30 minutes as they rushed to get him out of
50:27
the White House the EMP could seriously damage the Marine one so the Secret
50:33
Service people I interviewed explained to me that they would have a backup plan which would be to Tandem jump the
50:40
president out of the aircraft in a with with a parachute they would strap the president onto them and jump out of the
50:46
aircraft because at least there would be the the aircraft is going to crash if it gets hit by the electromagnetic bols so
50:52
at least there's a better chance well then you have to have the mill Aid has to have a parachute cuz he's got the
50:58
black book and the direct the the special agent in charge of the president is definitely going to go so then I
51:04
learned that this incredible detail that there aren't parachutes in Marine one so
51:10
they have to go to the White House office to get the parachutes you know these kind of details I believe provide
51:17
the reader with a number of things like the the astonishing understanding of how many
51:24
different scenarios are in play all the time you know being rehearsed so that we
51:31
because we might have a nuclear war at the same time that the messaging is we will never have a nuclear war and then
51:38
when you begin to look at all the competing agendas that will happen you you realize it's just chaos upon
51:45
Mayhem what if the president dies in the strike and before we've made a
What Happens if the President Dies
51:52
Counterattack which is something that stratcom thinks about and it's certainly why have that in the scenario because if
51:58
the president is the only one that can order a count a Counterattack that can launch nuclear weapons what if he dies
52:05
and so I learned in the reporting that if you're the president let's say he even gives the order okay here's my
52:11
counter- strike I'm choosing this from the Black Book the situ the command and control is
52:17
set up that if the president orders 82 nuclear weapons in response you can't launch 83 nuclear
52:24
weapons it's 82 and 82 only and then to do another launch requires passwords p i
52:32
mean it requires so much bureaucracy there's not time for that and so there's this almost unknown little detail inside
52:41
of the nuclear command and control apparatus called a universal unlock code
52:46
which I learned about in the book and the eyebrow goes up for exactly that reason as did mine when I wait what then
52:53
you find out that the president can release to the stratcom commander the universal unlock code
53:01
which basically says okay you if I die you have permission to
53:07
launch nuclear weapon number 83 or nuclear weapon number 5,000 you know all
53:13
the way up and that is a pretty shocking
53:21
concept