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Iran Just Named Google, Microsoft and Nvidia as Its Next Targets
Money over history and Geld über Geschichte
Mar 11, 2026

Iran has reportedly expanded the scope of the ongoing Middle East conflict by naming major US technology companies as potential targets. According to reports citing Iran’s IRGC-linked Tasnim News Agency, offices and infrastructure connected to companies such as Google, Microsoft, Nvidia, IBM, Oracle, and Palantir have been described as “new targets” as the conflict moves toward what analysts call infrastructure warfare.

These companies operate critical cloud computing infrastructure, data centers, and regional headquarters across Israel and several Gulf countries. Iranian officials claim that technologies developed by these firms have been used in military and intelligence operations supporting Israel and the United States.

The warning comes as tensions escalate across the Middle East, with infrastructure, financial institutions, and economic centers increasingly being mentioned as potential targets. Analysts say that if technology infrastructure becomes part of the conflict, the economic and geopolitical consequences could extend far beyond the battlefield.

In this video we explain:
• Why Iran named major tech companies as targets
• How cloud infrastructure and data centers became part of modern warfare
• The role of companies like Google, Microsoft, and Nvidia in global military technology
• What this could mean for the future of cyber and infrastructure conflict



Transcript

0:00Yesterday, Iran published a list. Not a list of military bases, not radar installations, not oil fields, naval vessels, or missile defense systems.
0:088 secondsThose have been targets since day one. Everybody knew those were coming. Yesterday's list was different.
0:1414 secondsYesterday's list had six names on it that have never appeared on any military target list in the history of modern warfare. Six names that collectively represent more economic value than the
0:2222 secondsGDP of most countries on Earth. Six names that every person reading this right now has used today, probably before breakfast. Google, Microsoft,
0:3131 secondsNvidia, IBM, Oracle, Palanteer, the IRGC, Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, the most powerful military force
0:3939 secondsin the Middle East outside of the United States itself, published through its official Tasnim news agency, a formal declaration that every office, every
0:4747 secondsdata center, every cloud infrastructure node these companies operate across Israel and the Gulf is now, in their exact published words, Iran's new
0:5555 secondstargets. And then they did something that no military force in modern history has ever done before issuing a strike campaign. They warned civilians to
1:021 minute, 2 secondsleave, not to evacuate a neighborhood near a missile base, not to stay away from a military airport or naval facility. They told the civilian public
1:091 minute, 9 secondsof the Gulf, the people who live and work in Dubai, Abu Dhabi, Manama, and Tel Aviv, to not stand within one kilometer of any US or Israeli linked
1:181 minute, 18 secondsbank, one kilometer from a bank because the bank might be hit by a missile. That warning was issued yesterday, March 11th, 2026. Day 12 of a war that was supposed to be a short-term excursion.
1:291 minute, 29 secondsToday is day 13. And the question every government, every investor, every tech executive, and every ordinary person with money in a Gulf bank account is
1:381 minute, 38 secondsasking this morning is the same question. Is this real? Here's how you answer that question. You look at what Iran already did. Not what it
1:451 minute, 45 secondsthreatened, not what it announced, not what an IRGC spokesperson said in a press release, what it actually did.
1:511 minute, 51 secondsBecause the threat published yesterday is not the first chapter of the story.
1:541 minute, 54 secondsIt is chapter two. And chapter 1 already happened 11 days ago on the very first morning of this war. On March 1st, 2026,
2:022 minutes, 2 secondswhile the world was still processing the news that Kamina was dead and the Middle East was on fire, Iran fired drones at a data center. Not a military facility, a
2:112 minutes, 11 secondsdata center. Three Amazon Web Services facilities located in the UAE and Bahrain. the cloud computing backbone for banking, payments, delivery
2:192 minutes, 19 secondsplatforms, and enterprise software across the entire Gulf region. Two of the UAE facilities were directly struck.
2:262 minutes, 26 secondsOne in Bahrain was damaged by a nearby explosion. AWS confirmed structural damage, disrupted power delivery. Fire suppression systems activating inside
2:342 minutes, 34 secondsserver rooms, flooding equipment with water to stop the blaze. Amazon told its customers, "Expect recovery to be prolonged given the nature of the physical damage involved." Within hours,
2:442 minutes, 44 secondsKareem, the Gulf's largest ride sharing and delivery app used by tens of millions of people every day, went offline. Payment processors, Hub Pay and Alain reported outages. Emirates NBD,
2:552 minutes, 55 secondsfirst Abu Dhabi Bank, and Abu Dhabi commercial bank all reported service disruptions. Enterprise software across the region lost connectivity. Investing
3:033 minutes, 3 secondsapps, delivery trackers, digital wallets, all of it suddenly dark because a drone had set fire to the building where the servers lived. The Uptime
3:113 minutes, 11 secondsInstitute, the Global Authority on Data Center Resilience and Infrastructure Security, confirmed what had happened with a single sentence that nobody in Silicon Valley, nobody in the Pentagon,
3:203 minutes, 20 secondsand nobody in the Gulf's trillion dollar investment community wanted to read.
3:233 minutes, 23 secondsThis was the first confirmed military attack on a hypers scale cloud provider in the history of warfare. Nothing like it had ever happened before. Iran did it
3:313 minutes, 31 secondson day one. Before the smoke cleared over Thran, before the first casualty figures were published, before oil crossed $100 a barrel, before the
3:383 minutes, 38 secondsStraight of Hormuz closed, Iran looked at the American economy, identified its most modern, most critical, most globally connected infrastructure and
3:463 minutes, 46 secondshit it on the opening morning of the war. That was the proof of concept. Yesterday's list, Google, Microsoft,
3:523 minutes, 52 secondsNvidia, IBM, Oracle, Palanteer, is the expansion of what was proven possible on day one. And to understand why what
4:004 minutescomes next is not just a military story or a technology story, but potentially the most consequential economic event of this decade, you need to understand one
4:084 minutes, 8 secondsthing that the architects of this war never modeled, never calculated, and apparently never asked. What do these six companies actually mean to the
4:154 minutes, 15 secondsUnited States military? Because the answer is not what most people think.
4:204 minutes, 20 secondsAnd Iran knew the answer before Washington ever launched the first air strike. Google, Microsoft, Nvidia, IBM,
4:274 minutes, 27 secondsOracle, and Palunteer are not simply technology companies. They are not just consumer brands or stock market darlings or the companies whose apps fill your
4:354 minutes, 35 secondsphone screen. In 2026, they are the operational infrastructure of American military power. And that is precisely why Iran named them. Microsoft Azure
4:444 minutes, 44 secondsholds the Pentagon's classified cloud computing contracts, multi-billion dollar agreements that make Microsoft servers the digital backbone of US
4:514 minutes, 51 secondsmilitary communications, logistics, and intelligence processing. When an American general needs to coordinate air operations across six countries
4:584 minutes, 58 secondssimultaneously, the computing infrastructure running underneath that coordination is in significant part Microsoft's. Google Cloud has active
5:065 minutes, 6 secondsdefense contracts that its own employees protested for years. contracts providing AI capabilities to military intelligence operations. Palunteer did not become a
5:145 minutes, 14 seconds$60 billion company by selling software to hospitals. It built the data analytics architecture that US special operations forces use for targeting. The
5:235 minutes, 23 secondssystem that takes raw intelligence from satellites, signals intercepts, and field reports and converts it into strike coordinates. Nvidia's chips do
5:305 minutes, 30 secondsnot just run gaming graphics cards and consumer AI assistance. They power the artificial intelligence systems,
5:365 minutes, 36 secondsprocessing satellite imagery in real time over Iranian airspace right now,
5:405 minutes, 40 secondsidentifying missile launchers, tracking vehicle movements, and generating the target lists that American and Israeli aircraft are using to select their next strike. IBM provides enterprise
5:485 minutes, 48 secondsinfrastructure to US intelligence agencies that predates the modern cloud era and runs some of the most sensitive government computing operations on
5:555 minutes, 55 secondsEarth. Oracle hosts classified US government data under contracts that make it one of the most strategically embedded commercial companies in the American national security architecture.
6:066 minutes, 6 secondsIran's argument published explicitly through Tasnam is that these are not neutral civilian businesses sheltering behind commercial activity. They are the
6:136 minutes, 13 secondscompanies whose technology is enabling the air strikes that have killed more than 300 Iranian civilians, struck 10 medical centers, bombed a girl school in
6:216 minutes, 21 secondsManab, killing over 150 children, and reduced entire neighborhoods of Tran to rubble. Iran is arguing and international legal scholars will debate
6:296 minutes, 29 secondsthis for years that companies whose products directly power military targeting have forfeited their status as protected civilian actors. Now look at
6:376 minutes, 37 secondswhere these companies have built their Middle East presence because geography tells you everything about the scale of what is at stake. Google's Middle East
6:446 minutes, 44 secondsheadquarters is in Dubai. Not a small liazison office but a major regional operation sitting inside one of the most recognizable commercial districts in the
6:526 minutes, 52 secondsworld. Microsoft maintains its largest regional presence in Abu Dhabi where it committed $3 billion in data center investment in 22 and4 alone. Oracle has
7:017 minutes, 1 secondbeen aggressively building Gulf infrastructure as the region positions itself as the AI capital of the emerging world. NVIDIA has deep partnerships with
7:087 minutes, 8 secondsUAE sovereign wealth funds and government AI initiatives. IBM operates across the Gulf providing enterprise technology to governments and financial institutions. All of it, every server,
7:197 minutes, 19 secondsevery office, every fiber connection was built on a single foundational assumption that was formalized into official US policy just 6 weeks before
7:267 minutes, 26 secondsthis war started. In January 2026, the United States announced the Pax Silica Initiative, a formal partnership with the UAE and Qatar designed to anchor
7:357 minutes, 35 secondsAmerican AI chips and cloud infrastructure in the Gulf, specifically to prevent that technology from flowing toward China. The security frameworks built around that initiative were
7:437 minutes, 43 secondssophisticated and expensive. They covered export controls, chip tracking,
7:477 minutes, 47 secondspolitical alignment agreements, and technology transfer restrictions. They were designed to keep advanced American semiconductors out of Chinese hands. Not
7:557 minutes, 55 secondsone word of the pack silica security architecture contemplated Iranian drones. Not one contingency plan addressed what happens when the buildings themselves become military
8:048 minutes, 4 secondstargets. 11 days ago, Iranian drones set an Amazon server farm on fire in the UAE. Yesterday, the IRGC published a formal list naming five more American
8:128 minutes, 12 secondstech giants as its next targets. The entire PAX silica assumption, the trillion dollar strategic foundation of American technology dominance and the
8:208 minutes, 20 secondsworld's most important energy region is now being stress tested against the reality that a country America is actively bombing has decided to shoot
8:288 minutes, 28 secondsback at the buildings where the future of American AI lives. The financial consequences are already cascading in ways the market has not yet fully
8:368 minutes, 36 secondspriced. Goldman Sachs analysts told Bloomberg this week that investor models have treated the AWS attacks as a contained isolated incident. One data
8:448 minutes, 44 secondscenter, temporary outage, workload migrated to other regions, services restored within days. That containment assumption rests on one condition that
8:528 minutes, 52 secondsthe attacks remain isolated. The IRGC's published list from yesterday is a formal declaration that the assumption
8:598 minutes, 59 secondsis wrong. This is not isolated. This is a campaign and a campaign against Google's Dubai headquarters. Microsoft's
9:079 minutes, 7 secondsAbu Dhabi campus and Oracle's Gulf operations executed with the same drone accuracy that took down Kareem and three
9:139 minutes, 13 secondsUAE banking apps on day one will not be absorbed by rerouting traffic to Frankfurt servers. It will be absorbed by stock markets, by pension funds, by
9:229 minutes, 22 secondsevery technology investor on Earth who wakes up tomorrow and realizes that the data center their money is sitting inside just appeared on an Iranian military target list and the US Navy
9:319 minutes, 31 secondscannot protect it. Here's the question that nobody in Washington is answering publicly, but that every CEO on that IRGC list asked their security team
9:399 minutes, 39 secondsyesterday morning. Can the United States military protect a Google office in Dubai? Not rhetorically, specifically,
9:479 minutes, 47 secondspractically right now on day 13 of a war where American interceptor stockpiles are being replenished from South Korean storage facilities, where the US Navy
9:559 minutes, 55 secondshas acknowledged it cannot guarantee safe passage through the Straight of Hormuz, where three Amazon data centers are still in recovery from drone strikes
10:0210 minutes, 2 seconds11 days ago. Can America defend a commercial tech building in the UAE against the same drones that already proved they could reach and destroy
10:0910 minutes, 9 secondscivilian infrastructure on day one of this war? The honest answer is not reliably, not without cost, and not indefinitely. The asymmetry here is
10:1810 minutes, 18 secondsbrutal. As one infrastructure security expert told rest of world this week, it is cheaper to attack than to defend.
10:2510 minutes, 25 secondsProtecting a data center against a sustained Iranian drone campaign requires layered air defense systems, Patriot batteries, radar coverage,
10:3210 minutes, 32 secondsinterceptor missiles, the same systems that are currently depleted across the entire Middle East theater from 13 days of continuous combat operations. The
10:4110 minutes, 41 secondscost of defending a single data center campus approaches the cost of building a new one. And Iran can send another drone for approximately the cost of a used
10:4910 minutes, 49 secondscar. This is the economic warfare logic that the architects of Operation Epic Fury never modeled. Trump's team plan for a military operation. Degrade Iran's
10:5710 minutes, 57 secondsmissile capabilities, eliminate its nuclear infrastructure, signal overwhelming American superiority. They expected Iran to fight back militarily,
11:0511 minutes, 5 secondsabsorb losses until the costs became unbearable. What they did not expect was that Iran would open a simultaneous front against the commercial and
11:1211 minutes, 12 secondstechnological infrastructure of the American economy itself. One where every defensive move costs more than the offensive one and where the attacker
11:2011 minutes, 20 secondsdoes not need to destroy the target to win. It only needs to make the target dangerous to be near. The $6 trillion in global equity market value wiped out since February 28th reflects oil prices,
11:3011 minutes, 30 secondsenergy supply shock, and generalized war risk. It does not yet reflect the specific scenario the IRGC published yesterday. If Iran follows through, if
11:3811 minutes, 38 secondsGoogle's Dubai headquarters or Microsoft's Abu Dhabi campus sustains the same drone strike that took down Amazon's UAE availability zones, the
11:4611 minutes, 46 secondsmarket response will not be a gradual repricing. It will be a violent, rapid reassessment of every tech company's Middle East exposure, every Gulf States's investment credibility, and
11:5511 minutes, 55 secondsevery assumption built into the packed silica framework that American and Gulf leaders spent years constructing.
12:0112 minutes, 1 secondMicrosoft's stock does not need to be hit by a missile to fall. It needs its investors to open their phones, read that its Abu Dhabi data center is on an
12:0912 minutes, 9 secondsactive Iranian target list, and decide that the risk adjusted return on Gulf exposure no longer makes sense. That repricing happens in milliseconds on
12:1612 minutes, 16 secondsalgorithmic trading systems. The damage arrives before the drone does. And running underneath all of this is a geopolitical message that Iran is
12:2412 minutes, 24 secondsbroadcasting simultaneously to every government in the world that is watching this war from outside the conflict. The Straight of Hormuz is closed to everyone
12:3112 minutes, 31 secondsexcept Chinese flagged vessels and Muslim-owned shipping. The IRGC technology target list names American companies. Chinese companies, Huawei,
12:4012 minutes, 40 secondsAlibaba Cloud, Bite Dance, all of which have significant Gulf presence do not appear on it. Iran is telling every government, every sovereign wealth fund,
12:4812 minutes, 48 secondsevery tech executive evaluating their next data center investment, American infrastructure in this region is a military target. Chinese infrastructure
12:5612 minutes, 56 secondsis not. Choose accordingly. That message is landing. Gulf state governments that spent the last decade carefully balancing between Washington and
13:0413 minutes, 4 secondsBeijing, attracting both American AI investment and Chinese technology partnerships are now watching the American half of that balance sheet catch fire in real time while the
13:1213 minutes, 12 secondsChinese half passes through the straight of Hormuz without interference. No official statement is needed. The geometry speaks for itself. Trump called
13:1913 minutes, 19 secondsthis war a short-term excursion. Israeli minister said regime change could take a year. The US military asked for four to six weeks to achieve objectives that
13:2813 minutes, 28 secondshave no military finish line. The IRGC's underground command network, 31 hardened facilities buried beyond the penetration depth of conventional weapons, is still
13:3613 minutes, 36 secondsoperational after 13 days of the most intensive American bombing since 2003.
13:4213 minutes, 42 secondsIran's factories are running double shifts, replacing weapons faster than air strikes destroy them. And now on day 13, the war has reached into the server
13:4913 minutes, 49 secondsrooms of the companies that run the American economy and put their addresses on a published hit list. The Amazon fire suppression systems activated 11 days
13:5713 minutes, 57 secondsago to save servers from Iranian drone damage. The fires went out. The recovery took days. Yesterday, the IRGC named Google, Microsoft, Nvidia, IBM, Oracle,
14:0614 minutes, 6 secondsand Palunteer. Today is day 13 and somewhere in Dubai right now in a tower that is very easy to find on a map,
14:1214 minutes, 12 secondsGoogle's Middle East headquarters is open for business with its address on a list that was published yesterday by the people who already proved 11 days ago
14:2014 minutes, 20 secondsthat they know how to find a building and how to hit it. The question is not whether they can. They already showed us they can. The question is when.

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Blow to Trump as Iran launches unprecedented strikes targeting US ships | Janta Ka Reporter
Janta Ka Reporter
Mar 12, 2026

Minutes after Donald Trump claimed victory over Iran, the Islamic Republic hit two American oil tankers with precision strikes. This was the first time that Iran successfully targeted an American oil tanker in the Persian Gulf. In total, Iran struck as many as six ships in the region, raising fears of a significant hike in oil prices globally. Rifat Jawaid explains why this latest development is bad news for Trump and the global economy.



Transcript

0:00Iran has just dealt the most painful blow to Donald Trump in the ongoing conflict. And Trump may have just caught many American nationals killed by his
0:088 secondsfake bravado. That's because the Iranians last night destroyed two American oil tankers in the Middle East.
0:1515 secondsAfter pulling off this feat, Iran issued a chilling warning to Americans asking them to prepare themselves for $200
0:2323 secondscrude oil price in the international market. The manner in which the Iranians have destroyed these two American oil
0:3030 secondstankers hints at a welldevised military strategy. This is nothing like less than a Hollywood thriller movie. This would be the broad focus of my video. So,
0:4141 secondsplease stay tuned. Two oil tankers that the Iranians destroyed last night in the Iraqi waters have been identified as
0:4949 secondsSafe Sy Vishnu and Zephiros. Safe Vishnu is an American company. The video of
0:5656 secondsthis oil tanker in flames has gone viral. We also shared the video on our telegram channel last night. You can watch it there. Details are on the
1:051 minute, 5 secondsscreen and in the description of this video. What's extraordinary is the fact that the Iranians used a combination of
1:131 minute, 13 secondsdrones including underwater drones and explosive laden speedboats to pull off these strikes. While Shahed type drone
1:221 minute, 22 secondsacted as a decoy to distract the crew's attention, underwater drones and speedboards full of explosives hit these
1:301 minute, 30 secondsships with precision while these vessels were in the Iraqi waters. Both ships,
1:361 minute, 36 secondsthis is important, both ships had loaded the fuel cargo in Iraq just before the Iranians launched their brutal strikes.
1:451 minute, 45 secondsAnd this happened just when this motormouth man called Donald Trump was telling his supporters that he had already won.
1:531 minute, 53 secondsWe've won. Let me tell you, we've won.
1:561 minute, 56 secondsYou know, you never like to say too early you won. We won. We won the bet. In the first hour, it was over.
2:022 minutes, 2 secondsMeanwhile, the UK Maritime Operations has reported an attack on another oil tanker with drones in the state of
2:082 minutes, 8 secondsFormos. So this takes the number of ships being attacked by Iranians in the last 24 hours to six.
2:172 minutes, 17 secondsThis raises plenty of questions on the fake bravado of Trump who yesterday said that the state of Hormuz was safe for
2:242 minutes, 24 secondsnavigation. But Iranians have sunk three ships in the Persian Gulf alone and that
2:312 minutes, 31 secondstoo just when they tried to defy the ban imposed by the Islamic Republic. One of them was a Thai ship carrying oil to
2:392 minutes, 39 secondsIndia. Clearly, these ships were encouraged to cross the state of Hormos by Trump's claims. So, would it be
2:472 minutes, 47 secondsunreasonable to hold this man squarely responsible for these deaths and destruction?
2:542 minutes, 54 secondsIn the explosion of the American oil tanker in the Iraqi waters, at least one sailor of Indian origin is believed to
3:013 minutes, 1 secondhave been killed. More details are still awaited.
3:053 minutes, 5 secondsAnother aspect of this development is the Iranians opening a new front even on the 11th day of the conflict. Iran
3:133 minutes, 13 secondsannounced yesterday that it was doing away with the policy of reciprocal attacks. Meaning that from now on its
3:203 minutes, 20 secondsstrikes would be in all directions even when the Islamic Republic was not being attacked. These developments have
3:283 minutes, 28 secondsalready pushed the Brent crude oil prices to exceed $100 a barrel. The closure of the state of hormones coupled
3:353 minutes, 35 secondswith the disruption in production across the Arab world and these brutal attacks on ships full of oil will have a
3:443 minutes, 44 secondscatastrophic impact on the oil prices in the international market.
6:316 minutes, 31 secondsTrump may be laughing right now and making fun of the cold-blooded murder of 100 plus Iranian sailors, but soon he
6:396 minutes, 39 secondswill realize what his crazy actions are going to do to his country's economy.
6:446 minutes, 44 secondsListen to this Iowa farmer. He says the closure of the state of Hormuz has seen the cost of fertilizers shoot up by 77%.
6:546 minutes, 54 secondsfertilizer. Those that need to buy are hurting pretty bad because uh we've had this huge jump in fertilizer prices
7:027 minutes, 2 secondsbecause of this uh this conflict. And you know with only about 30% of fertilizer coming through the straight
7:087 minutes, 8 secondsof Horz uh that's if you divide that out per day that's about 09% of the world's fertilizer coming through there. And even if the US only uses 30% of that,
7:207 minutes, 20 secondswhich I think is probably a really high number, that's 0.03%.
7:257 minutes, 25 secondsAnd per day. So we've only been in conflict for nearly 12 days here. And our fertilizer costs have jumped nearly 77%.
7:357 minutes, 35 secondsAnd our corn price has only gone up by 5%. So we've got some real challenges here ahead of us. So what's the way out?
7:447 minutes, 44 secondsColonel Douglas McGregor feels that there aren't many neutral stakeholders left in the region who could mediate a
7:517 minutes, 51 secondstruce between Iran and the US. He suggests India's Narendra Modi should be approached by Trump to convince the Iranians to end the war.
8:028 minutes, 2 secondsHow do we get out?
8:068 minutes, 6 secondsI think uh you have to find an intermediary first of all, someone who is not part of the problem. My my personal preference if I were advising
8:148 minutes, 14 secondsthe president is to call president or excuse me prime minister Modi in India.
8:198 minutes, 19 secondsNow you can say well he was just in Israel. Well that's fine. He has good relations with Israel. That's not a bad thing. He also has good relations with
8:268 minutes, 26 secondsIran. Uh he's he's never been an enemy of the Iranian people. Neither are the Shiite Iranians his enemy. He knows
8:328 minutes, 32 secondsthat. And he has reasonable relations with the Chinese. They have their differences up in the mountains in the Himalayas, the Hindu Kush. And that is a
8:408 minutes, 40 secondslegacy of British colonialism. But my point is that he's historically leading a neutral state and a neutral state that is growing in in stature, in power, in
8:488 minutes, 48 secondsinfluence and importance. We should recognize that and welcome it, not treat it as a problem. And I think if President Trump talked to him and said,
8:568 minutes, 56 seconds"Look, uh, we we need to end this." And somebody will say, "Well, why do you need to end it?" Because if we don't,
9:029 minutes, 2 secondswe're going to hit $300 per barrel of oil. We're going to watch 60 to 80% of the stock value crash. People are going
9:119 minutes, 11 secondsto lose trillions in wealth. It will be a disaster and it's not something we'll recover from. We've we've already seen that the Israelis hit a refinery on the
9:189 minutes, 18 secondsoutskirts of Tyrron and what did Iran do? They destroyed the refinery and it's supporting infrastructure in Hifa.
9:269 minutes, 26 secondsHow does this help us? How does this help anybody? The damage that's being done is going to be semi-permanent. And by that I mean it's going to take years
9:339 minutes, 33 secondsto recover from this. The Qatari government has said we're shutting down.
9:379 minutes, 37 secondsWe can't store anymore. We can't drill anymore. We can't refine anymore. I mean, this this is a catastrophe. We look at this and say, well, only 3% of
9:459 minutes, 45 secondsour oil comes from the Gulf. Well, I got news for you. 50% of it goes to India. 50% goes to China. You know, 70 plus%
9:529 minutes, 52 secondsgoes to Japan. Mid 60% or so, 64, 65%
9:569 minutes, 56 secondsgoes to South Korea. Now, did we call the president or the prime minister of Japan? Then we call the president of Korea and say, "By the way, we're
10:0410 minutes, 4 secondsconsidering a war against Iran, act action against Iranians, and we want to know what you think the impact will be
10:1210 minutes, 12 secondson your country because you are friends of ours. You are our allies." Did we do that? I don't think so. I think we are
10:2010 minutes, 20 secondsacting like the biggest bully in the schoolyard to hell with everybody else.
10:2310 minutes, 23 secondsThis is what I want and I'm going to pound your face into the dust. I mean, we've all seen those people. They exist.
10:2810 minutes, 28 secondsI grew up with some of them. Had the crap kicked out of me once or twice at recess. I know exactly what that is.
10:3310 minutes, 33 secondsWell, you can't do that in international relations for very long before people gang up against you. And we already have this thing called bricks. And we seem to
10:4110 minutes, 41 secondsbe determined to destroy that because we see bricks. And right now it has what 10 members something like that. And there are 50 60 standing in line ready to
10:4810 minutes, 48 secondsjoin. We don't like it because they're looking at potentially goldbacked currency. What a novel idea. And if it's not gold, it'll be gold plus maybe
10:5610 minutes, 56 secondsplatinum, silver, who knows, other precious metals. And we're saying, well,
11:0011 minutesthis is a threat to us. It's a threat to our petro dollar. Tucker, we're killing the petro dollar right now in the Gulf.
11:0611 minutes, 6 secondsThis is going to end this very lucrative cycle where people we buy oil, they take the dollars that they that they get from
11:1511 minutes, 15 secondsus and they reinvest it in our country in a place called the bond market.
11:1811 minutes, 18 secondsUh-uh. Not anymore. And that's one of the engines that drives our economy. We've thrown all caution to the wind.
11:2611 minutes, 26 secondsThink of any number of worst case scenarios and they are on the horizon.
11:2911 minutes, 29 secondsPresident Trump is still president of the United States, not president of Israel. And he has to think about the consequences here at home for us, for
11:3811 minutes, 38 secondsthe average man, not for the billionaire class, the Epstein class, for the rest of us. I don't see that we're thinking this through. And I don't just blame him
11:4611 minutes, 46 secondsbecause he's had wholehearted support from everybody on the hill. Don't believe any of those Democrats from Chuck Schumer to Slotkin to any number of them. Oh, I was always against it.
11:5411 minutes, 54 secondsReally? Well, you sure as hell aren't on record, and things are getting very bad.
11:5911 minutes, 59 secondsEventually, I think members of his own party will desert him if he doesn't find an offering. So, back to your question. Step number one, find a mediator.
12:0712 minutes, 7 secondsSomebody that they will listen to because no one is going to listen to us.
12:1112 minutes, 11 secondsIf you're an Iranian, would you pay any attention to what we say? How many times have they been attacked in the midst of negotiations now? Twice. Why would the
12:1812 minutes, 18 secondsRussians pay any attention to us? It this is this is a catastrophe. And if we do nothing, eventually we will wake up and discover there are some aircraft in
12:2612 minutes, 26 secondsthe airspace over Iran. They're probably Russian and they probably will put up something similar to Awax and if that shows up then the message is stop
12:3612 minutes, 36 secondsand the question is what do you do? The fact that Iranians have now said that they wouldn't take part in this year's FIFA World Cup football. It shows that they are in this war for a long haul.
12:4912 minutes, 49 secondsAnd mind you, this war was imposed on them by the reckless military adventurism by Trump and his Israeli terrorist boss Benjamin Netanyahu.
12:5812 minutes, 58 secondsThis war criminal hasn't been seen for weeks now. This shows his real cowardice. Although this conflict appears to have done one good thing
13:0713 minutes, 7 secondsaside from ending the influence of Americans and Israelis in the Arab world. Now Sudin forces are making huge
13:1613 minutes, 16 secondsgains in the territories. previously held by the RSF.
13:2113 minutes, 21 secondsThese RSF fighters were brutal and they indiscriminately killed innocent civilians. They were being funded by the
13:2913 minutes, 29 secondsUAE. Now that Iran has bombed the hell out of the UAE, they are not in a position to continue supplying arms to
13:3613 minutes, 36 secondsRSA fighters, thereby making them increasingly weak. Sudin people are now thanking the Iranians by calling this a Ramadan miracle from Thran.
14:0114 minutes, 1 secondI will leave you with this clip of the Sky News broadcast on how the Department of War in the US or Department of
14:0714 minutes, 7 secondsDefense as it was called earlier spent more than $90 billion on fine dining in
14:1414 minutes, 14 secondsjust one month alone. This is no joke and this is a guy whose crazy decision have led to the deaths of many American soldiers.
14:2514 minutes, 25 secondsWhen would Americans wake up? Now James,
14:2814 minutes, 28 secondswe spoke about Pete Hegsith earlier busying himself with war. His department though uh they seem to be pretty busy uh
14:3614 minutes, 36 secondswith a spot of fine dining as well. An analysis by government watchdog Open the books found that the Department of War,
14:4414 minutes, 44 secondsDepartment of Defense as was spent 93 billion with a B in September 2025
14:5214 minutes, 52 secondsalone. That's the highest total spent since at least 2008. Yeah. It's all because of something called the use it
14:5914 minutes, 59 secondsor lose it policy. If you're allocated a budget by the federal government, you have to use it otherwise. when more
15:0715 minutes, 7 secondsfunding comes around. The following year, you get less than you were allocating last time. So, it got to September, the defense department were
15:1515 minutes, 15 secondsunder budget. Instead of keeping some cash stored away, maybe for a war, they uh they went large on the luxury items.
15:2515 minutes, 25 secondsSo, we've got the list here. Are you ready? Go for it. $2 million on Alaskan king crab. Mhm.
15:3315 minutes, 33 seconds$6.9 million on lobster tail. He's favorite apparently. 6.9 million, $1 million on salmon, $140,000 on donuts,
15:4415 minutes, 44 seconds$140,000 on donuts, $124,000 on ice cream machines, $26,000 on sushi
15:5015 minutes, 50 secondspreparation tables, and a whopping $15.1 million on ribeye steak.
15:5715 minutes, 57 secondsProbably took me a week and a half to polish that off. Yeah, it goes on as well. Not just food,
16:0116 minutes, 1 secondJames. $1.8 million on musical in musical instruments. $100,000 on a grand piano for the Air Force Chief of Staff's
16:0916 minutes, 9 secondshome. $26,000 on a violin. Not sure who that was for. And $22,000 on a custom ma handmade Japanese flute.
16:1816 minutes, 18 secondsOh dear. Sounds like your house, Mark.
16:2016 minutes, 20 secondsOn top of the billions of dollars spent on technology contracts, purchases from foreign governments and businesses, uh
16:2816 minutes, 28 secondsthe department also found inventive ways to ensure it used as much of its budget as it could in the final month. Fruit baskets were bought for $12,000.
16:4016 minutes, 40 seconds400 of the highest tech iPads were also uh on the inventory. It's a shame they didn't have um Elon Musk still within
16:4916 minutes, 49 secondsthe government. Remember him? That feels like a very long time ago, doesn't it?
16:5316 minutes, 53 secondsYeah, he was the Doge man with the chainsaw. Uh went into all the departments, cut their budgets. Um yeah,
17:0017 minutesnot really working out in the Department of War, is it?
17:0317 minutes, 3 secondsUh no, there would have been no Steinway in the house if Musk had been around.
17:0617 minutes, 6 secondsThat's it for me. Thank you very much for your support of this platform and our journalism. If you haven't subscribed to my channel, please do so because that's one of the many ways you can support independent journalism.

[admin]

’Rush All THAAD Systems…’: Trump’s PANIC MOVE Iran Batters U.S. Air Defences Amid Raging War
Times Of India
Mar 12, 2026 #usiranwarupdates #usiranwar #middleast

The United States has redeployed six THAAD missile defense systems from South Korea to the Middle East as tensions with Iran escalate. In response to Iranian drone and missile attacks, Washington is urgently boosting its air defense capabilities to protect troops and assets in the region. Videos circulating online show U.S. military trucks moving THAAD systems under cover of night, highlighting the urgency of the redeployment.



Transcript

0:077 seconds[music]
0:2828 secondswith the Iran. giving a befitting reply to the United States military. Donald Trump has done the unthinkable.
0:3636 secondsWashington DC has shifted six terminal high alitude area defense or THAD missile systems from South Korea to the
0:4444 secondsMiddle East. Videos circulating on social media showed US military trucks moving THAD systems in the middle of the
0:5252 secondsnight. The Donald Trump administration is under fire with missile defense systems being under most strain due to
1:001 minuteIran's fierce retaliation. The US military is using both the THAAD and Patriot missile systems to take down
1:081 minute, 8 secondsIranian missiles. But US officials were quoted as saying by the Associated Press that they were struggling to stop waves
1:151 minute, 15 secondsof drones launched by the Islamic Republic. The THAAD system is designed for defeating medium-range ballistic
1:221 minute, 22 secondsmissiles, while the Patriot system is for taking down short-range ballistic missiles and crude aircraft.
1:391 minute, 39 secondsThe Middle East stands on the edge of a dramatic and dangerous turning point.
1:431 minute, 43 secondsTensions between Iran and the United States have [music] erupted into one of the most intense confrontations the region has seen in decades.
1:561 minute, 56 secondsAccording to statements released by the Islamic Revolutionary [music]
1:591 minute, 59 secondsGuard Corps, Iranian forces have reportedly destroyed 10 highly advanced American radar systems [music] across
2:062 minutes, 6 secondsthe Persian Gulf region, marking what Thrron describes [music] as a major blow to US military surveillance and defense capabilities.
2:182 minutes, 18 secondsIranian officials say their air defense systems [music] have also downed multiple highv value American drones operating in the region.
2:262 minutes, 26 secondsThe announcement came from IRGC spokesman Ali Muhammad Naini who delivered a [music] fiery message claiming that Iran now holds the
2:342 minutes, 34 secondsstrategic upper hand in [music] the confrontation.
2:412 minutes, 41 secondsAccording to Naeni, American military infrastructure across the Persian Gulf has been heavily damaged or neutralized.
2:482 minutes, 48 secondsHe insisted that [music] the balance of power has shifted and that Iran, not Washington, will decide when the conflict ends.
2:562 minutes, 56 secondsThe remarks directly targeted Donald Trump, who currently leads the United States. Iranian officials accused the American administration of hiding
3:043 minutes, 4 secondsbattlefield setbacks and misleading the public about the situation on the ground.
3:103 minutes, 10 secondsIn Thran's view, the war is not only continuing, but expanding. Iranian forces say they have launched multiple waves of missile and drone strikes as
3:193 minutes, 19 secondspart of Operation True Promise 4, a large-scale retaliation campaign conducted by the Naval and Aerospace divisions of the Revolutionary Guards.
3:303 minutes, 30 secondsThese attacks reportedly targeted both US installations across the region and sites inside Israel, escalating the
3:373 minutes, 37 secondsconfrontation into a wider regional crisis. Iranian officials claim their missiles are carrying warheads weighing
3:443 minutes, 44 secondsmore than a ton [music] and are striking military targets with increasing intensity. They argue that despite Western claims that Iran's missile
3:523 minutes, 52 secondsstockpile is dwindling, their capabilities remain strong and operational.
3:583 minutes, 58 secondsMeanwhile, Washington has portrayed the conflict very differently. President Trump recently described the confrontation as a short-term excursion,
4:074 minutes, 7 secondssuggesting that the United States retains overwhelming military superiority and that the conflict [music] will end quickly.
4:154 minutes, 15 secondsBut analysts across the world are divided. Some experts believe the fighting could spiral into a prolonged [music] regional war involving multiple
4:234 minutes, 23 secondscountries and military alliances. Others say both sides are engaging in information warfare, exaggerating victories while downplaying losses.
4:334 minutes, 33 secondsWhat is clear is that the conflict [music] has already transformed the strategic landscape of the Middle East.
4:394 minutes, 39 secondsThe Persian Gulf remains one of the most militarized regions on Earth, hosting numerous American bases, naval fleets,
4:464 minutes, 46 secondsand advanced surveillance networks designed to monitor missile launches and air activity.
4:524 minutes, 52 secondsIf Iranian claims about destroyed radar [music] systems are accurate, it could temporarily weaken early warning capabilities that protect US forces and
5:015 minutes, 1 secondallies across the Gulf. That possibility alone raises the stakes dramatically.
5:075 minutes, 7 secondsRadar systems play a critical role in modern warfare. They track incoming missiles, coordinate air defense responses, and guide interceptor systems
5:165 minutes, 16 secondsdesigned to protect bases, ships, and cities from attack. Taking out multiple radar installations could create gaps in
5:235 minutes, 23 secondssurveillance, a serious strategic advantage in a high-tech conflict.
5:295 minutes, 29 secondsAt the same time, Iran's leadership has signaled that the conflict could grow even larger. IRGC officials warned that
5:365 minutes, 36 secondsif the conflict continues, security across the region could collapse for everyone involved. In their words,
5:435 minutes, 43 secondssecurity will be for all or insecurity will be for all. It is a statement that underscores the potential global consequences of this conflict.
5:545 minutes, 54 secondsThe Middle East sits at the heart of the world's energy supply routes and the Persian Gulf [music] carries a significant portion of global oil shipments.
6:036 minutes, 3 secondsAny prolonged [music] war in the region could disrupt energy markets,
6:076 minutes, 7 secondsinternational trade, and geopolitical stability.
6:146 minutes, 14 secondsBeyond the military dimension, the war has also become a battle of narratives.
6:236 minutes, 23 secondsBoth sides are trying to shape [music]
6:256 minutes, 25 secondsglobal perception, broadcasting their victories, denying their losses, and attempting [music] to influence public opinion at home and abroad. For now, the situation remains highly volatile.
6:426 minutes, 42 secondsMissile launches, drone strikes, and retaliatory operations continue to raise fears that the conflict could widen further, potentially drawing [music] in
6:506 minutes, 50 secondsadditional powers. As tensions rise and rhetoric intensifies, one question looms over the region. Will this confrontation
6:586 minutes, 58 secondsremain a limited military clash? Or will it evolve into a full-scale regional war?
7:067 minutes, 6 secondsFor the people living across the Middle East and for the wider world watching closely, the answer could shape global security for years to come. And as both sides claim strength and determination,
7:177 minutes, 17 secondsthe conflict between Iran and the United States appears far from over. Meanwhile,
7:227 minutes, 22 secondsan Iranian foreign ministry spokesman said Thran has rejected ceasefire requests from countries including China,
7:297 minutes, 29 secondsFrance, and Russia.
7:347 minutes, 34 secondsVarious contacts are currently being established with the Islamic Republic of Iran. And of course, you have been following all of these reports closely in the news. Representatives from China,
7:427 minutes, 42 secondsRussia, France, and even several other countries within this region are in constant communication with us along with various other nations, including both Islamic and non-Islamic countries
7:507 minutes, 50 secondsaround the world. Some of them, yes, are actually
7:567 minutes, 56 secondswilling to act to stop this war or establish a ceasefire. Well, this is their request and we are fulfilling it.
8:068 minutes, 6 secondsThe power to stop the war lies entirely within the hands of the Islamic Republic of Iran. This means that whenever the Islamic Republic of Iran decides that even they must come to a complete halt,
8:138 minutes, 13 secondsthe final decision remains with the Islamic Republic of Iran. In this regard, this is because they were the ones who committed acts of aggression and they were the ones who carried out these armed attacks. In point of fact,
8:228 minutes, 22 secondswe should only reach a stage where we stop our activities when we are able to truly feel or have a firm and absolute guarantee that these aggressive acts of hostility will never occur again in the
8:318 minutes, 31 secondsfuture. and they must be prepared to take full responsibility for all of their past actions. These two specific conditions are absolutely essential.
8:378 minutes, 37 secondsThey must accept responsibility for all of their actions. It's not like they'll they'll just come today and say stop stop and say and ceasefire and we'll
8:478 minutes, 47 secondssimply say very well and it's done. We now have the upper hand. Look, every effort they made has failed. Even now they haven't reached their goals. The
8:548 minutes, 54 secondsIslamic Republic of Iran has inflicted heavy and painful damages on the Zionist regime, America and their allies.
9:019 minutes, 1 secondJust consider the state of the global economy and the energy sector. This is proving to be very very painful for them. So you see we have inflicted devastating blows in this area.
9:109 minutes, 10 secondsTherefore we tr we truly have the upper hand here and as a result the Islamic Republic of Iran will ultimately determine the end of the war. [music]
9:299 minutes, 29 seconds[music]

[admin]

US Admits DEFEAT To Iran’s IRGC In Hormuz? ‘NOT READY’: German Ship ‘HIT’ In Fresh Strike | Watch
Times Of India
Mar 12, 2026 #straitofhormuz #usiranwar #oilmarket

In a chilling escalation of the US-Israel conflict, debris from projectiles struck the German giant Hapag-Lloyd's container ship "Source Blessing" near the strategic Strait of Hormuz, igniting a fire onboard. This comes one day after the NATO nation-based firm suspended all Gulf cargo bookings, citing the regional mayhem threatening global trade amid the ongoing war between the US, Israel, and Iran. The incident came as the US Energy Secretary told CNBC that the American military is currently “not ready” to escort tankers through the critical Strait of Hormuz.



Transcript

0:00It can't happen now. We're simply not ready. All of our military assets right now are focused on destroying Iran's.
0:2424 seconds

Fragments from exploding projectiles struck a container ship perilously close to the vital straight of Hormuz. German
secondsshipping giant Hopag Lloyd confirmed on March th. Debris slammed into the vessel identified as the source blessing
secondsas it sailed dangerously near this strategic choke point closed by Iran following the USIsraeli attacks on the
secondscountry. While the vessel did not take a direct hit, shattering fragments sparked a raging fire on board right in the war
secondszone. Hopag Lloyd, one of the world's biggest container shipping titans and a cornerstone of global trade, now
minute, secondsscrambles hundreds of vessels across routes crippled by the war.
minute, secondsA spokesperson from the German company told AFP that it doesn't know where the debris came from, whether it was a rocket or a drone or another munition.
minute, secondsMeanwhile, the crew battled back with the blaze extinguished and all crew members confirmed safe so far, dodging
minute, secondsdisaster in the crossfire of the war that has engulfed the Middle East.
minute, secondsThe report of the incident came as the US energy secretary Chris Wright told CNBC that American military is currently
minute, secondsnot ready to escort tankers through the critical straight of Hormuz because all its assets are focused on striking Iran.

Will it happen soon that that the Navy can do that?

It'll happen relatively soon, but it can't happen now. We're simply not ready. All of our military assets right
now are focused on destroying Iran's offensive capabilities and the manufacturing industry that supplies their offensive capabilities. You know,
we don't want this to be a brush off for a year or two. We want to permanently destroy their ability to build missiles,
to build drones, to have a nuclear program. It it is amazing. They have invested all of the wealth of their country, deprived the rights of all of
their people simply to build a war machine, and we are systematically day by day destroying that war machine.

Do you think by the end of this month the US Navy will be escorting some of those ships through the straight?

I think that yes, I I I think that is quite likely the case. But again, I mean, I'll be over at the Pentagon later today, but that is that is what the
military is working on. And yes, a lot of critical materials come out of the Straits of Hormuz.

minutesCommenting on the disruption of energy supplies since the start of the US-led war on Iran, Wright said the US will be
minutes, secondsincreasing its net exports of natural gas to meet the global demand.
minutes, secondsUm, look, we have a large global economy. Fortunately, with President Trump's policies, you know, the United States is a net exporter of oil. We're a
minutes, secondsnet exporter of natural gas. And in fact, we're growing our net exports of natural gas this spring, this summer.
minutes, secondsYou'll see massively more capacity online by the end of this year. Natural gas is another product. So, we we've done the right things in the US to make
minutes, secondsthe Western Hemisphere a much better place and to supply the world, but it is short-term pain for the long-term gain, but it's simply a mustachieve thing.
minutes, secondsOtherwise, you've got decades into the future of an Iran that can hold the world hostage whenever it wants.
minutes, secondsWright's comments came as an attack on two oil tankers off Iraq killed at least one person and oil prices briefly soared
minutespast US dollars Since launching the war on Iran, US President Donald Trump has sought to calm the markets by
minutes, secondsoffering US Navy escorts for oil tankers and reinsurance facilities for shipping companies, but no escorts have so far
minutes, secondstaken place. Meanwhile, the latest incident involving the Hopag Lloyd vessel came as the firm halted all Gulf cargo bookings until further notice,
minutes, secondsciting the war, which is boiling over into an open conflict. The decision by Lloyd, came after a Danish shipping
minutes, secondscompany, Meers, took a similar step this month. Both oil giants from NATO nations have had to bear the brunt of the war
minutes, secondsstarted by US and Israel as it turns the seas near Iran into a battlefield.
minutes, secondsA sudden strike in the straight of Hormuz has ignited fresh fears over the safety of the world's most critical
minutes, secondsenergy corridor. A cargo ship is burning in one of the world's most dangerous waterways. The straight of Hormuz, the
minutes, secondsnarrow maritime corridor that carries a massive share of the world's oil, is now at the center of a fresh security crisis.
minutes, secondsBritish maritime authorities say a container vessel has been struck by suspected projectile.
minutes, secondsThe ship is now ablaze. Its crew has been forced to evacuate and the attack is sending shock waves through global
minutes, secondsshipping routes and energy markets because the straight of Hormuz is not just another shipping lane. It is the
minutes, secondslifeline of the global oil economy and that lifeline is under threat.
minutes, secondsAccording to the United Kingdom Maritime Operations, the master of a container ship reported that the vessel had
minutes, secondssustained damage after being hit by what officials called a suspected projectile.
minutes, secondsThe strike set the cargo ship ablaze in the waters of the Strait of Hormuz. The crew quickly began evacuation procedures
minutes, secondsand requested assistance. UK MTO confirmed that while the ship had suffered damage, all crew members were
minutes, secondsreported safe. The extent of the damage to the vessel, however, remains unknown.
minutes, secondsThe incident took place roughly nautical miles northwest of the Emirate of Ross Alqa. That location places the
minutes, secondsstrike directly inside the tense waters of the Strait of Hormuz. Authorities have now warned vessels transiting the
minutes, secondsregion to proceed with caution as investigations into the incident continue.
minutes, secondsBut the timing of this attack has raised serious concerns because tensions in the Strait of Hormuz have already been
minutes, secondsescalating. Iran's elite revolutionary guards have claimed what they describe as complete control of the waterway.
minutes, secondsThat declaration alone has alarmed governments and energy markets around the world. The straight of Hormuz is one
minutes, secondsof the most strategically important maritime corridors on Earth.
minutes, secondsAt its narrowest point, the channel is less than mi wide. On one side lies Iran. On the other side lies Oman. And
minutes, secondsthrough this narrow passage flows a significant portion of the world's oil supply. Any disruption here can ripple
minutes, secondsacross the global economy almost instantly. That is why even a single maritime incident in the strait attracts
minutes, secondsworldwide attention. But this incident is not happening in isolation.
minutes, secondsData compiled by maritime monitoring agencies shows that the threat to shipping in the region has been growing
minutes, secondsrapidly. Between March st and March th alone, at least oil tankers in or near the straight of Hormuz were
minutes, secondsstruck, targeted, or reported security incidents. The data comes from the UK Maritime Organization, the International
minutes, secondsMaritime Organization, and Iranian authorities.
minutes, secondsEach incident has added to the sense that the region is entering an increasingly dangerous phase.

[admin]

Part 1 of 2

Iran HITS US Oil Tankers, Trump PANICS Then THIS HAPPENED | Alexander Mercouris & Patrick Henningsen
Danny Haiphong
Streamed live 111 minutes ago #iran #israel #trump

Geopolitical analysts Alexander Mercouris and Patrick Henningsen joins to discuss the latest breaking developments in the US-Israeli war on Iran including: Iran's massive retaliation in the Strait of Hormuz that's shaking the global economy, military updates on the ground, and what the political status of the war is as Trump and Israel waver on their objectives and their ability to fight another day.



Transcript

Welcome everyone. Welcome back to the show. It's your host Danny Hiong. I am joined by geopolitical analyst and host of the Duran Alexander Mccurus and the
secondshost of st Century Wire and independent journalist and geopolitical analyst Patrick Henningson. Gentlemen, thanks so much for joining me today.
secondsThank you. Pleasure to be here and a pleasure to be with Patrick again. Just a sec. Of course.
secondsAmazing. Yes. I'm so glad to have you both because we're doing these daily uh updates on the war on Iran and of course the historic retaliation which has just
secondsescalated quite dramatically in the last hours. And so I wanted to get right to it. So while Donald Trump is saying
secondsthat the United States has won this war uh now that we're entering or or getting close to the second week of USIsraeli
secondsaggression uh we have a dramatic escalation. We have rising oil prices.
secondsThey're back at $per barrel because not only is a straight of Hormuz closed,
secondsbut Iran has just struck an a US affiliated oil tanker. I can just pull
minute, secondsup uh what the video that Iran released of this in the Persian Gulf. Here it is.
minute, secondsAnd so uh according to uh reports this was done via uh I don't know if it's
minute, secondsunderwater sea drones or overwater sea drones but it was done by uh their drone technology. It was very rapid very quick. This is one of two tankers
minute, secondsactually that was hit. And uh we also know that the straight of Hormuz is closed and that has caused a lot of
minute, secondsproblems uh not least uh the fact that we have and here is the evidence of uh
minute, secondswhat I was reporting. Um despite all of these reserves being released, we had uh the US release over I believe million of its reserves. IAEA countries,
minute, secondsof them, released hundreds of millions of reserves, but it didn't do anything to stop the rise of these prices. And Iran has promised that they
minutes, secondswill go up to $a barrel, which of course is just untenable. So, how about we start with you, Patrick? What is your
minutes, secondsreaction to this latest escalation and uh what has transpired here in the leadup to it?
minutes, secondsSure. Thanks, uh, thanks Danny. Great to be with you. Um the on the oil on the oil question I think uh the the pressure
minutes, secondsa lot of the pressure you're seeing on the price right now it's uh futures market so um this is you know psychological pressure this is emotion
minutes, secondsthis is people worried about what's going to happen in two weeks or a month um but uh nonetheless the longer the
minutes, secondsstraight uh keeps um uh inoperable then you're just going to see that number go up and up the the reserves that are
minutes, secondsgoing to release. I mean, look, four they're saying it sounds like a lot. million barrels of oil, but uh the the
minutes, secondsshortfall on the closure of the Straits of Hormuz is approximately million barrels per day. So, that's really
minutes, secondsdays days worth of uh coverage that this sort of thing would release. It's not and they're talking about this in
minutes, secondsthe United States. They're celebrating this announcement by the International Energy Agency like this is some great mana from heaven, but it's not. It's um
minutes, secondsit's actually a desperate situation whereby you you you'd want to avoid at all cost having to uh release your
minutes, secondsstrategic reserves. I mean, the United States hasn't even filled up uh the strategic reserves that it expended during the Biden administration so that
minutes, secondsBiden could suppress the price of uh gas during the election cycle, which is insane, but that's what happened. Um so
minutes, secondsthat you've got that going on. At the same time, there's there's all sorts of things going on on the international oil markets that I think are very revealing.
minutes, secondsUh like the the fact that the United States is relaxing sanctions on uh on Russia, for instance. uh with the sales
minutes, secondsto India and so forth. But what's really extraordinary about this and is I'll just round it off here. The US is attempting,
minutes, secondsbelieve it or not, to uh to to to proposition the Chinese uh that because of the u shortfall of oil coming out of
minutes, secondsthe Persian Gulf that they might consider buying US uh oil and LNG uh at
minutes, secondsat a premium of course. So I mean so they're basically the the Persian Gulf becomes the Hormuse becomes the
minutes, secondsNordstream pipeline. Uh at this point it's the same type of thing. So they want they want to uh uh not not
minutes, secondsde-industrialize China but put it into the type of uh vice grip uh in terms of energy that they've done to Germany as an example um and Europe and in general.
minutes, secondsSo I think this is this is not going to fly at all uh in Beijing. But you have the same situation with South Korea,
minutessame situation with J Japan. Um, so if this is if this is what the brain trust in Washington are thinking that this is
minutes, secondspart of some big geostrategic D chess plan, I really beg to differ with them.
minutes, secondsI don't think this is going to go very well.
minutes, secondsWell, Alexander, I want to bring you in here and I just want to make sure that uh the audience knows that Donald Trump,
minutes, secondsdespite uh what's going on in the straight of Hormuz and the Persian Gulf and with the oil markets and this massive escalation in the war, uh he
minutes, secondssays, and I'm curious if you believe that this is somewhat of a panic move here, uh where Donald Trump is essentially declaring victory already.
minutes, secondsHere's what he had to say. Is that a great name?
minutes, secondsWell, it's only good if you win. You know, you can only do and we've won. Let me say we've won. You know, you never like to say too early you won. We won.
minutes, secondsWe won the bet. In the first hour it was over, but we won. But but they gave me a list of names of general. Sir, you can pick the name you'd like, sir. I said,
minutes, secondsthe name of what? The name of the attack on Iran, sir. And they gave me like names. Then I'm like falling asleep. I
minutes, secondsdidn't like any of them. Then I see Epic Fury. I said I like that name. I like that name.
minutes, secondsSo Alexander uh he's going off about the name of the operation which began almost two weeks ago and now we're here and he's he's saying we won. What do you
minutes, secondsmake of these comments in lie of the context we uh have laid out here?
minutes, secondsWell, it I mean it's absolute fant fantasy. It's the sort of statements that he's making which uh I mean the
minutes, secondslonger this continues the more prices oil prices rise and prices are going to continue to rise the longer this goes on
minutes, secondsfor um the more statements like that he makes the more his credibility starts to
minutes, secondsfall apart. If the United States won this battle in the first hour, then why
minutes, secondsis Iran still fighting? I mean, I it is obviously and completely absurd. Um, and
minutes, secondsI think it is panic. I think he's finding that the situation is out of control. I think that there were expectations that the Iranians would
minutes, secondsfold much more quickly than they have. I think he didn't expect that there would be this massive disruption in global
minutes, secondsenergy markets. And uh following on from what Patrick was saying, it might actually be interesting to see what the
minutes, secondsIAEA, the EA, the International Atomic Energy Agency are saying about the
minutes, secondssituation because they've been speaking about uh the um the release. They say
minutes, secondsthat the Middle East war is creating the biggest supply disruption in the history of the oil market. Flows about of about
minutes, secondsmillion barrels per day of crude and products through the straits of Hormuse have crashed to a trickle. And then they
minutes, secondsgo on to say the coordinated emergency stroke release, that's what Patrick was talking about, provides a significant
minutes, secondsand welcome buffer, but in the absence of a swift resolution of the conflict,
minutes, secondsit remains a stop gap measure. And it goes on to say that whatever things are
minutes, secondsdone crucially the most important thing is the duration of disruptions to shipping through the straight of Hormus.
minutes, secondsSo it goes directly to what Patrick was saying. Ultimately Donald Trump could say whatever he likes but that is the reality.
minutes, secondsYeah. And uh Patrick, it's not just the Persian Gulf where we see the images happen. There are reports I I mean of
minutes, secondscourse we know that uh now uh there are reports of three ships uh one of them supposedly tie three ships in the
minutes, secondsstraight of Hormuz that have been hit uh as well and Iran has not made any uh qualms about how it is controlling the
minutes, secondsflow of traffic. Al Jazzer is saying that up to six vessels have been attacked up until this point uh by
minutes, secondsIranian drone boats and they're saying sea mines although we've heard very little confirmation of that from uh Iranians themselves but uh this is
minutes, secondsextending into a massive economic campaign uh in this war uh that complements the military one for Iran.
minutes, secondsAnd so I'm curious on what you think about this entire situation in totality because it's uh I I guess I'm I'm
minutes, secondsgetting a bit confused by the differences in the rhetoric by the US administration versus the reality.
minutes, secondsSure. I mean uh f firstly uh you know I'll start with Trump uh claiming that uh the United States has already won the
minutes, secondwar or they've degraded uh Iran's defenses to some such a degree that um they're they're defenseless and hopeless
minutes, secondsthat Iran launched it th barrage th barrage uh yesterday of missiles and by
minutes, secondsall accounts it was the most in terms of volume of of missiles hitting US hitting
minutes, secondsIsraeli targets. Um, and so how's that possible if if the United States has degraded their missile capabilities,
minutes, secondsblown up all their launchers as US uh as Hexath and Trump and others have been repeating? Uh, how's that even possible?
minutes, secondsSo clearly that's not the case. And what you have to remember is while this is a different conflict uh this is a different war than Ukraine and Russia,
minutes, secondsyou have to remember that for three straight years now, three straight years, we were told day in day out by the entirety of the Western media, by
minutes, secondsall of the Western politicians across Europe and in the United States that Russia was on the verge of collapse,
minutes, secondsthat the Russian army was a spent force, that the Russians were out of bullets,
minutes, secondsthat the Russians were fighting with shovels, that the Russians had lost millions of men and Ukraine hadn't lost anybody and that we just need a few more
minutes, secondsweeks and we can turn this thing around and Moscow is going to collapse. Putin is in hiding. Putin's dying of cancer. You name it. Uh it was we had it all.
minutes, secondsAnd guess what? The opposite was true.
minutes, secondsSo I I I would assume that we are in a very uh heavy information war right now uh between Washington uh and Tel Aviv.
minutes, secondsAnd I would assume then that a lot of what we've seen in terms of claims by the Pentagon, claims by the Trump administration as to their successes that they would be wildly exaggerated.
minutes, secondsIf if we're going by Ukraine and Russia as a comparison, as a guide, I I would I would bet along those lines. And so if
minutes, secondsthat's the case, then uh there's a rude awakening that might be coming at at some point in the near future. Now that's not to say that Iran hasn't
minutes, secondsincurred severe losses both militarily I'm sure uh across various naval air
minutes, secondsforce uh army uh militias as well besiege but it might be exaggerated uh compared to what the claims that the US
minutes, secondsum is making. So let's just put that um on there as well. Now, uh is what's interesting on uh Alexander mentioned
minutes, secondsthe uh the IAEA, the International Atomic Energy Agency, Iran media just uh released a report of leaked documents
minutes, secondsthat show that the IAEA that their chief uh Raphael Gi had been fully coordinating um with well this this was
minutes, secondsreleased earlier, but um those documents are are are out there that they were coordinating with the Israelis. So um
minutes, secondsand this this has been known for a while. Um so that's that basically means that you can rule out any negotiations
minutes, secondsgoing forward regarding the nuclear program. I think that so we can kind of remove that off the table. So what are we left with right now? We're left with
minutes, secondsfrom the US point of view with regime change. Uh and then we're also left with uh I guess uh the ballistic missile
minutes, secondsprogram. Um so those are the three main pillars of what the US is you know claiming that is justification for this war to begin with. Uh and then you have
minutes, secondsadmissions by US officials like Rubio and others that uh the the Israelis were going in unilaterally and the United
minutes, secondsStates had to go with them. And I would argue with and uh that if that's the case then the US has no ability to
minutes, secondsrestrain Israel but yet has to follow Israel into a conflict. So that's a big major shift I think in terms of uh uh
minutes, secondsgeopolitics, in terms of great power politics. That's not to say the US is not a a superpower militarily. They are the preeminent military superpower.
minutes, secondThat's not to say they're not an economic superpower. They are the preeminent economic superpower with the dollar as a world reserve currency and
minutes, secondsthe leverage they're able to employ with that. However, from a political point of view, uh who has uh who has the most
minutes, secondspower politically and it looks like politically in terms of influencing US uh actions, policy and what which
minutes, secondsdirection the US is going to take at least in the short term uh and using this giant military machine that the US have. Israel has leverage over the
minutes, secondsUnited States. I think this is undeniable uh at this point. So if that's the case, that really kind of changes the calculus in terms of how
minutes, secondswe're analyzing th these types of situations. This is uh this is new territory. I mean, maybe this is was the
minutes, secondscase previously with the Bush administration, the neoonservative uh cabal that kind of uh steered US policy
minutes, secondsduring the 's in the run-up to /and then afterwards, but it's just done in such an overt way now and it's being admitted by for better or for worse,
minutes, secondsthis is being admitted by uh the Secretary of State and the White House now. So that to me is a kind of new
minutes, secondspolitically speaking this is a new territory and a new conversation that we're entering into here and it'll be
minutes, secondsvery interesting to see how this takes a shape um in terms of US politics. We're seeing record levels, I think, of people
minutes, secondsquestioning the special relationship with uh Israel in the United States. And and this is a conversation that's
minutes, secondshappening a lot more openly than it has ever before in my lifetime. And I think personally I think that's significant. I
minutes, secondshope that's going to translate into something productive in terms of outcomes uh in terms of deescalation in
minutes, secondsthis case and perhaps uh a slightly bigger shift geopolitically in the world view of the United States and uh its political economy.
minutes, secondsYeah. Yeah. Great points, Patrick. And uh uh you know, Alexander, what Patrick are saying is leading to what seems to
minutes, secondsbe a runaway train here. uh we have uh when you mentioned a regime change being uh maybe one of the few things left on the table. Well, it seems like Iran has
minutes, secondstaken that off the table in many ways because here you have the new uh Ayatollah uh supreme leader of Iran
minutes, secondsMustava saying giving his first public remarks uh since he was uh elected into that
minutes, secondsposition. And the big uh uh news from these remarks is that uh he reiterated the straight of Hormuz will remain
minutes, secondsclosed and that they're going to continue targeting US bases and urged uh friends and neighbors in the region aka
minutes, secondsthose countries surrounding Iran to get rid of these bases. And so uh amid all this though uh you have talks now in the
minutes, secondsWall Street Journal that uh now that there is this move this global implications of the straight of
minutes, secondsmoves being closed that uh perhaps there needs to be uh a a as military analysts are saying close to the Pentagon close
minutes, secondsto Washington it may require a ground operation to seize the Iranian coastline and reopen it. So, a kind of runaway
minutes, secondstrain happening here. Alexander, what's your reaction to this? It's it seems like a disaster uh already in the making.
minutes, secondsWell, I would have thought so. I mean, a military operation to seize the Iranian coastline, I would assume, is going to
minutes, secondsrequire a very, very significant, very large force of US forces indeed. And I
minutes, secondsmean anybody who knows the geography of Iran, anybody who knows the landscape in some parts of the coastline, I mean the area for example around the straits of
minutes, secondsHummus I believe I am told is rocky and hilly and uh a difficult to control. I
minutes, secondsmean that is a ground war. That is exactly what the United States has repeatedly said it doesn't want. That is what is unpopular in the United States.
minutes, secondsAnd of course it completely contradicts Donald Trump's current message which is that victory has already been achieved.
minutes, secondsSo I think that is a disastrous plan and I wonder whether politically it is even possible. But then that
minutes, secondsbrings us back to the other point. the point about uh Mkhtad Himene now as the
minutes, secondssupreme leader saying that the straits of Hormuz must remain closed because if
minutes, secondsa military operation, a ground operation is incredibly difficult, if regime
minutes, secondschange is not going to happen and there is a big report today in the Guardian which says that Israeli
minutes, secondssecurity and intelligence officials are briefing that they no longer believe that regime change in Iran is going to
minutes, secondshappen, that the government there appears to be fully stable and completely in control. Well, given all of these options,
minutes, secondsum it it is beginning to look as if we are on the brink of a major crisis with
minutes, secondsno certain outcome and with the president's own position
minutes, secondsI in serious jeopardy the longer this continues either he holds back um
minutes, secondscontinues the operations as we're seeing them now. Um, the US military itself begins to run down its missile stocks, whatever.
minutes, secondsThe Iranians continue to strike,
minutes, secondsthe oil prices continue to rise, that will in itself undermine his political
minutesposition. or he begins negotiations with the Iranians from a critically weak
minutes, secondsposition very different from the position he was in two weeks ago or he
minutes, secondsstarts to take these incredible risks with ground operations and things of that kind which I I have to say um have
minutes, secondsunthinkable consequences for the United States and for him personally.
minutes, secondsYeah, Patrick, your your comments on a possible ground operation. Uh, as we observe these developments in their
minutes, secondsbroader context, it reminds me of how over and over again the Trump administration appears to corner itself
minutes, secondsinto requiring a more disastrous uh escalation. Uh, and here the Venezuela
minutes, secondsoption isn't there. They don't have the opportunity. They're not going to swoop in and kidnap Moshabi. They already killed Ayatollah Ali Kamei. It's over.
minutes, secondsThere's no more uh quick out in that way. And so here we already have talks of I mean we've had talks for several
minutes, secondsdays to up to a week now of potential ground invasion. But now they're honing in on specifically the straight of Hormuz issue in large part I think
minutes, secondsbecause of the panic. But your reaction to this possible reality impending reality that's uh facing this empire in chaos right now.
minutes, secondsSure. I mean I would I would uh say you know any kind of ground operations are just strategically a nightmare. hugely
minutes, secondsproblematic. One is you're not going a D-Day style coastal, you know, incursion is just as your backs against the wall.
minutes, secondsUh Iran has the high ground, uh specifically with the as Alexander was saying about the uh the the topography and the terrain around the straits of
minutes, secondsHormuz. Um but having said that, any encampments and maintaining supply lines deep into Iranian territory, that's
minutes, secondsproblematic. any encampments are going to come under drone attack and missile attacks um on Iranian territory. That's just going to happen. Um so they're
minutes, secondthey're going to have that's not to say uh what the problems they would have interfacing with Iranian uh forces on the ground and Iran's special forces uh
minutes, secondsand uh Kud's forces are formidable uh fighting forces as they proved in the battle against ISIS which a lot of people forget led by guess who? Kasum uh
minutes, secondsGeneral Kasumsulammani uh who Trump assassinated uh in January of
minutes, secondsSo but but I think the the any ground action by the United States would have to come with some kind of uh an
minutes, secondsobjective and the obvious objective is from the US point of view there's there's a lot of pressure on the US now would there will be a lot of pressure
minutes, secondsincreasingly to do something that would help to open the straits of Hormuse or allow uh uh tankers to be escorted uh
minutes, secondsthrough that waterway. So anything short of that um I think is going to come is going to be problematic. is not going to achieve anything. But so Donald Trump is
minutes, secondsbig on optics, okay? And there's nothing more uh that's that's that about optics that's more pronounced than the Navy.
minutes, secondsOkay? And naval action. And if you notice, the United States has kept its naval assets in a standoff position
minutes, secondsquite far away from uh Iran, relatively speaking. and their support base uh where the fifth fleet was stationed or
minutes, secondsthe base in Bahrain that's more or less rendered uh I think inoperable and possibly not even fully staffed um
minutes, secondsat this point and the other bases that would provide support for any kind of a naval uh uh action by the US are are not
minutes, secondsu operational uh in the Gulf not to the any degree that they were before this conflict started. So, so the the
minutes, secondscomments by the uh United States uh energy secretary Chris Wright are very revealing because he's being pressed by the uh the US media that are quite
minutes, secondsengaged on this issue saying when you know are the US Navy going to be able to escort uh tankers through the straits of Hormuse. And he said, well, that could
minutes, secondhappen soon, not now most likely by the end of the month. Uh he said recently when he was talking to one of the major
minutes, secondsuh US networks. So that'll be the end of March. So what's going to happen in terms of the oil markets uh between now and the end of the month? I would say
minutes, secondsI'm looking at the looking at the calendar here, Patrick.
minutes, secondsThe pressure the pressure would just be immense by then. Um on the Trump administration to basically wind this thing down. Um looking at uh you know,
minutes, secondsyou're talking about by the end of there's definitely going to be futures calls by the end of the month over $a barrel. No, without a doubt. And so
minutes, secondswhat's that going to mean in terms of inflationary pressure? I mean, right now in Southern California, uh, we're looking at a gallon. Okay, five.
minutes, secondsThat's San Diego and, uh, Los Angeles.
minutes, seconds. Uh, in Arizona, we're looking at $uh, per gallon here. Um, and so on the west coast of the US, very
minutes, secondsexpensive. Um, cheaper on the east coast for obvious reasons in terms of uh,
minutes, secondssupply chains and availability, but nonetheless across the country, that's that's a hell of a lot of pressure. So I don't think that they're going to be
minutes, secondsable to pull this off in terms of using the US Navy uh to escort. So the mine the the mining of the Straits of Hormuse uh all all these other things they all
minutes, secondscontribute to uh the the final conclusion which is that uh this this is a very difficult problem to untie for
minutes, secondsthe for the US right now. And are they going to be able to do this through brute force? Are they, you know, is it going to be uh is US air power uh hit
minutes, secondscontinuing to hit uh Iranian hunt down Iranian naval assets? I don't think it's that simple. I don't think it's that simple. And they have other problems as
minutes, secondswell that they have to deal with um uh with regards to Israel and managing the the the the barges that are coming and
minutes, secondshitting uh Tel Aviv as well as other US facilities in the region. So listen,
minutes, secondsthis is uh hugely complicated. This is a great victory for Iran because what Iran has done very cleverly here is they
minutes, secondsbrought the conflict to the world. Iran has brought the conflict to the world.
minutes, secondsThis isn't they're not isolated backed into a corner. So from that point of view and they have incurred heavily heavy losses and paid a huge price for
minutes, secondswhat they're attempting to do which will be in the end to evict the United States from from the region that or at least from the Persian Gulf. That will be, I
minutes, secondsthink, the takeaway. Uh the history will look back at this, but getting there is not going to be easy, nor is it going to be pretty for anybody involved.
minutes, secondsYeah. Yeah. And I Alexander, I want to get you in here and we're definitely going to talk about the the implications regionally and globally. Iran promised a
minutes, secondsregional war if they were attacked and and here we are. I mean even just here uh on this day uh Iran despite the
minutes, secondsstraight of Hormuz operation that they're waging despite of course all the missile uh strikes I think they're up to now as of uh speaking they're still
minutes, secondshitting uh installations they're still hitting uh uh assets in the region here is Abu Dhabi they just recently targeted
minutes, secondsin the UAE uh a facility housing US military personnel so you know this continues Alexander and so your reaction
minutes, secondsto anything Patrick said and uh also what seems to be a uh you know cascading disaster uh in the making.
minutes, secondsWell, there's a number of things.
minutes, secondsFirstly, uh uh any military operation to seize the Iranian coastline uh that that kind of ground operation I mean would
minutes, secondstake not just until the end of March to prepare. It would take far leer to
minutes, secondsprepare than that. The logistics to do it are simply not there at the moment.
minutes, secondsThe American bases in the region have been deserted. Many of them have been massively attacked. The logistic chains
minutes, secondsto keep American troops supplied. Um I mean they simply do not exist. Um,
minutesdeploying the US fleet to unblock the Straits of Hormuz
minutes, secondswould mean bringing warships into danger, into areas where there are potential mines,
minutes, secondswhere uh the Iranians can hit them with drones, where the Americans can where the Iranians can hit them with missiles
minutes, secondsand all kinds of things. Maybe since in places we're talking about kilometers from the Iranian coastline, even
minutes, secondsartillery, you know, conventional artillery. This looks to me like an enormously complex, very difficult, very, very
minutes, secondshigh-risk operation. And I wonder whether the planning to prepare for it exists. And I would have thought that
minutes, secondsgiven the way that the United States military usually works in which they prepare for operations over many many
minutes, secondsmonths, the time scale that's been talked about the end of March, it looks to me impossibly optimistic
minutes, secondseven if this is achievable at all. Now Chris Wright is, as I understand it, the US energy secretary. Um, I suspect that
minutes, secondshe's talking about an operation by the end of March in order to try to reassure energy markets, telling them, look,
minutes, secondswe're going to open the Straits of Hormuz by the end of this month. Hold out just a little bit longer
minutes, secondsand um by the end of this March, by the end of March, by the end of this month,
minutes, secondsthis problem will be solved. He's already, I'm afraid, shown that he's
minutes, secondsprepared to say things or has said things which turned out to be completely untrue. I believe it was he who recently
minutes, secondstweeted and then deleted his street that a tanker had actually been escorted through the Straits of Hormone by an
minutes, secondsAmerican warship. So I I don't think he has much credibility here now. Um,
minutes, secondsfor the moment there are many, many different people playing in the markets.
minutes, secondsMany of them are speculating. They're uncertain which way it's going. Um,
minutes, secondsmaybe these words of reassurance will calm people on a particular day. But the
minutes, secondslonger these sorts of reassurances are given and the less
minutes, secondsuh it appears that they are being translated into proper
minutes, secondsoutcomes to release energy flows, the more you're likely to see credibility collapse and credibility in the markets.
minutes, secondsIf you lose credibility in the markets,
minutes, secondsthis I can absolutely say, then it is almost impossible to recover it and that
minutes, secondthat would be a crisis um which I don't think any administration in um the recent history of the United States has faced.
minutes, secondsYeah. Yeah. Well, uh I think great points and and now we enter Patrick if we could begin with how the regional war
minutes, secondsnow that uh Iran is very much engaged with uh it's not just uh that it is closing the straight of Hormuz but uh
minutes, secondslast night uh as uh I was preparing for the show it was uh reported that Iran and Hezbollah were engaging in a joint and coordinated strike on Israel. Uh,
minutes, secondsand Hezbollah has just announced a new operation called, I believe, operation uh, Devoured Straw. And, uh, according
minutes, secondsto some reports, and I'll just play what the scenes were like last night.
minutes, secondsAccording to some reports, uh, this barrage here fell % of them hit their targets, and Hezbollah said that they carried out targets on military uh,
minutes, secondsinstallations inside of Israel, especially to the north. So, uh,
minutes, secondsPatrick, your, uh, reaction to how this has turned into a regional war and where
minutes, secondsexactly it is because there's been massive censorship of course of the damage on the Israeli side. Uh, now
minutes, secondsthere's satellite, I think Planet Labs is delaying all uh, releases of information for at least two weeks of
minutes, secondsanything that happens in the Gulf. Uh so your thoughts about this and and where it really is because the US and Israel
minutes, secondsare also uh really targeting civilians and Iran says about civilian sites have been hit.
minutes, secondsYeah. Yeah. On the on the Hezbollah question there um uh you know some people are saying too little too late for Hezbollah but um I I will say that
minutes, secondsuh yeah what what this shows is that Hezbollah is still uh active. Um they're they still exist. They're still able to
minutes, secondsfight. uh they're stable still able to mount uh some kind of a response. Um they did abide by the ceasefire for the longest time, but that didn't get them
minutes, secondsanywhere. Uh only pain and suffering for South Lebanon. Uh because Israel has an advantage and the advantage is that the
minutes, secondsold playbook that the assumptions that the US or its allies would uh restrain from targeting densely populated
minutes, secondscivilian areas or killing large numbers of civilians. those assumptions are no longer uh valid when you're talking
minutes, secondsabout uh wargaming and uh these types of scenarios. Um so the gloves are off and no one's willing to step forward and
minutes, secondsrestrain them. So Lebanon, while you could say it's part of the regional war, um it's it's not an independent country.
minutes, secondsLebanon is under the full control of the United States uh and Israel %
minutes, secondspolitically. Um, so what what it what it does show is that you have, you know,
minutesfor the first time ethnic cleansing under the under the threat of death by Israel from the suburbs of uh the Daha
minutes, secondsin the suburbs of South Beirut. people have been displaced this
minutes, secondsweek from south uh south Beirut. Uh and Israel has also attacked their encampments on the beach just last
minutes, secondsnight. So I mean it's the where where is the outrage uh from this? where are the sanctions? Where are the calls for uh embargo of Israel? I mean, it's just
minutes, secondsunbelievable how this thing has fallen apart. So, when we talk about the uh the regional aspect of this, to me, the more uh the two the two compelling areas that
minutes, secondswe can look at, well, three anyway, but but two in particular, one is Turkey uh and the other is Iraq. Uh with regards to Turkey, um we're we're we're entering
minutes, secondsinto a new phase uh between Turkey and Israel. we have open threats from Israeli ministers calling Turkey the
minutes, secondsnext Iran. Um so when Israel talks you should listen uh when you hear these sort of statements made. So Turkey is
minutes, secondsnow being framed possibly as a a hostile uh adversary of of Israel uh as a NATO member. That's quite interesting. So, we have to ask ourselves the question, uh,
minutes, secondsDanny, if Israel were to attack Turkey,
minutes, secondsuh, in order to hit military installations or or some kind of a targeted strike or even assassinate one of its leaders, do you think the United
minutes, secondsStates or anybody in Europe is going to step forward and condemn Israel for that? And the answer is maybe not. Maybe not. Uh, in the current political uh,
minutes, secondsframe that we have. So, what does that tell you? That tells you that we have the potential now for great instability um in the region right now. And then
minutes, secondswith Iraq, the United States have uh crossed a red line this week. They attacked the PMU base uh in Iraq. Okay.
minutes, secondsSo I was I'm not sure if it was Israel or the United States that actually hit it, but uh initial reports said the
minutes, secondsUnited States hit this base. So what does that mean? you have a fatwa from the Ayatollah alsistani in Iraq who uh
minutes, secondsregionally is is one of the I would say top three most powerful voices um in the region. Um and so so he if he calls for
minutes, secondsthe mobilization which he's he's called for uh solidarity now that everybody must have collective um support of Iran
minutes, secondsin this battle against western imperialism and against the uh against Israel. You also have the leading Sunni
minutes, secondscleric, Sunni cleric in Iraq also issuing uh a type of a fatwa recognizing
minutes, secondsthat this is now for the entire Islamic uh world. This this is now a challenge that Iran must be uh defended and the US
minutes, secondsaggression must be opposed. That to me is significant because uh in terms of mounting any significant actions against
minutes, secondsI Islamic Republic of Iran, Iraqi airspace, Iraqi territory and that includes the KRG, that includes Iraqi
minutes, secondsKurdistan is essential. Otherwise, the operation is hugely complicated. Hugely complicated. The Gulf States uh claimed
minutes, secondsthat they were going to shut their airspace uh and not allow it to be used for overflight. Saudi Arabia made a big statement before this conflict. They
minutes, secondsthey didn't abide by that at all. The evidence suggests that the both Israel and the US have used Saudi airspace um
minutes, secondsas parts of their operations. Um, so and then the other uh so so Iraq, keep a close eye on Iraq because they could
minutes, secondsvery easily be pulled into um some kind of a maybe an Iraqi civil war regarding Kurdistan, maybe onto Iranian territory
minutes, secondsto if the if the CIA want to activate these Kurdish um uh Iranian Kurdish uh fighters uh which the reports are that
minutes, secondsthey're threatening to use to invade uh the uh the Kurdish region uh in in western uh Iran. But Pakistan is also a
minutes, secondsvery important in terms of the regional um uh conflict here. Pakistan's hugely important. You're seeing massive street
minutes, secondsprotests in Pakistan in solidarity of Iran. That doesn't surprise, it shouldn't surprise anybody, but what that means is there going to be some
minutes, secondsupward pressure on the political uh uh uh system in Pakistan to maybe take uh
minutes, secondsmaybe to lean a little bit towards tan in their own self-interest. Okay.

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Part 2 of 2

Even India even India has hasn't uh hasn't
minutes, secondsmade some sort of very clear definition or support for Israel uh in this conflict. That means India also sees
minutes, secondspossibly the danger and the risk of what is happening in terms of regional stability and for their own interests for energy uh supplies. So the there's
minutes, secondsthat's very interesting on the eastern side of this. Um, so I think from a regional point of view, there's a lot there's it's still taking shape and we're not even talking about Yemen yet.
minutes, secondsUh, and what what uh what Yemen could do in terms of mobilizing uh against Israel or US forces in the region. And by the
minutes, secondsway, the the the the escape last thing I'll say, the the pressure release valve for the Persian Gulf is are the
minutes, secondspipelines that Saudi Arabia has um for shipping from the Red Sea. Okay. that bypass the Persian Gulf. That that could
minutes, secondsvery easily be disrupted uh by the Yemenes uh if they so choose. Can the United States manage all of that? Can
minutes, secondscan Israel manage a fivefront war? Maybe not. We'll see. But um those are all the things that I'm looking at.
minutes, secondsYeah. I mean, Alexander, that's a a massive outline there of the regional situation. What have you made of this
minutes, secondsexplosion of a regional war which had so many components to it? Uh but every single day we are seeing uh the results
minutes, secondskind of bear out. Is is this already out of control? And uh uh you know Iran has has laid out its terms about what it
minutes, secondswants. I believe the president has three terms. I don't know if you you saw those. Yes, I have.
minutes, secondAnd you could talk about it a little bit in the context of its strategy which is being carried out. We talked before the show he said Iran is doing exactly what
minutes, secondsit said it was going to do and now we see the results of it.
minutes, secondsI I don't think the situation is under out of control. I think that what we are in fact seeing is rather a strategy that
minutes, secondsIran developed before the war and which in fact they announced before the war.
minutes, secondsSo everything that we have seen is not a situation spiraling out of control. It may look like that to us in the west,
minutes, secondsbut rather it is the implementation of a a strategy prepared for and announced before this
minutes, secondsconflict began in Tehran. The problem is that people were not listening and in many many cases I think they were uh
minutes, secondslistening instead or rather believing far too much their own propaganda. So um
minutes, secondfirstly they assumed there was lots of rhetoric about how Iran was weak, how the government there was weak, how it
minutes, secondsbeen weaker, it was it has become weaker than at any point since the revolution, how Iran was a house of
minutes, secondscards. All you needed to blow at it was and it would all f fall fall over. So that eventually that propaganda began to
minutes, secondsshape some of the decisions that we made and if or say we made that were made in the United States and in Israel and by
minutes, secondsthe way across the whole west because all western governments to some extent have been involved in this and the same about Hezbollah we were talking about
minutes, secondsHezbollah in my opinion and you know I'm not expert in these matters but I think
minutes, secondsit is entirely really sensible for Iran for Hezbollah to hold back in the first
minutescouple of days. What Hezbollah needed to do was basically to contain an Israeli
minutes, secondsground offensive, which apparently they are successfully doing, and then to launch their own rocket attacks on
minutes, secondsIsrael once the Israeli air defense was depleted
minutes, secondsdepleted by the Iranian drone and missile strikes. Iran. Hezbollah doesn't
minutes, secondshave the same kind of stockpile of advanced missiles that Iran does. It's a
minutes, secondsmilitia. It is not a state. So, it makes complete sense for Hezbollah to hold
minutes, secondsback up to this time. And again, I suspect that this was coordinated. But again, we had all of this rhetoric, all
minutes, secondsof this propaganda that was circulating after the events of that Hezbollah was weak, that it had been badly
minutes, secondsbattered, that it couldn't resist, that the organization was on the brink of collapse, that the militia was
minutes, secondsunraveling, that it wouldn't be able to replace Nazala, his former chief. And now we see that it is fully in
minutes, secondscontention and it is fully there and it is operating as well. So again we we
minutes, secondspeople in Washington and in Israel got swept along by a lot of the propaganda
minutes, secondsand rhetoric that they were uh that they were um
minutes, secondsputting out. They ended up believing far too much on it of it themselves and now
minutes, secondsof course that they're colliding with reality. They've been caught and what we
minutes, secondsare seeing as a situation that is spiraling out of control. I think it's
minutes, secondsnot so much a situation that is spiraling out of control. Rather it is
minutes, secondsone where one side has a plan which is it is implementing and the other side
minutes, secondsdoes not because their plan has failed and they are trying desperately to make
minutes, secondsup some kind of plan and to think out what they are going to do in a situation
minutes, secondsthat they never anticipated finding themselves in.
minutes, secondsYeah. And uh Patrick uh when you mentioned Yemen earlier, I thought to myself over the last few days since the straight of Hormuz closure has really
minutes, secondstaken off, I uh I was thinking that the reason why it hasn't or the Houthies on Sarala hasn't entered yet is because
minutes, secondsthey're waiting actually for the crisis to get so bad that they attempt to move oil and commercial cargo etc. uh the
minutes, secondshostile parties or ships associated with them um through there and then they would close it and that would only intensify the crisis. And then we heard
minutes, secondsfrom Iran saying that well if they try to uh find another avenue uh for their oil or they try to u you know wage an
minutes, secondsescalation over the straight of Hormuz that they would uh face another straight that would be uh closed and I thought to
minutes, secondsmyself are they talking about the Babe here? So, uh, anyway, your final thoughts on this before we move on to the last segment.

[Patrick Henningsen] Yeah, of course that would be problematic for the United States. You know, they supposedly defeated Yemen last spring, but maybe they haven't. So they would have to basically fight multiple fronts there. And reports are the United States are very much depleted in terms of their air defense, in terms of interceptors, in terms of their precision munitions. This is why B-52s are being loaded up at British air bases, US B-52s, and B-B2s are being loaded at British bases for high altitude heavy bombing, and bunker busters etc in Iran. So that to me is the final sort of wave. It's going to take them a very long time to replenish and to restock.

In fact, if you look at the other big problem the United States has, the reports in South Korea that they're dismantling some of the remaining THAAD systems to be redeployed to the Middle East, I would assume for protection of Israel, most likely. And what that goes to show is that the entire US protection racket, and now you can see it's a protection racket, the Pacific posture is a protection racket, because if it was really about countering North Korea, because that's the stated aim of the United States for maintaining the level of forces that they have in South Korea, Japan, in the Pacific, supposedly, it's to counter the crazy dictator Kim Jong-un and his nuclear threat. If it was, then they wouldn't be dismantling THAAD systems in South Korea. So everybody knows now, and the same with the Gulf. If it was about protecting the Gulf Arab countries, then they've utterly failed in that regard. They've drawn fire to all of those Gulf countries by hosting US bases in every single position right around the Persian Gulf.

And the thing I point to as well is if it was about protecting the Arab countries, or protecting the oil, clearly the US is not interested at all. Otherwise, they wouldn't have gone down this misadventure path three weeks ago. But what it shows is if you look at the fact how US forces are activated in these bases, and also the naval assets that were put into place, not only in the Indian Ocean, Diego Garcia, Djibouti, the Red Sea, and the Eastern Mediterranean, we saw it. The evidence in the receipts are in True Promise 1, 2, 3, and 4, all of these were activated for one purpose, in Iraq as well, the bases in Syria, in Jordan, for one purpose and one purpose only: to defend Israel, to provide a defense perimeter, an envelope of protection for the state of Israel. The US, they're not just projecting force there, the US has sacrificed their footprint in the the Persian Gulf for Israel. There's no other way to look at this, because it doesn't make any sense from a US imperial point of view that they would compromise, and sacrifice, all of this investment, all of these various bases, the division of labor that's been assembled around the region, I mean why would they just allow that to be trashed? It doesn't make any sense unless it's not about US interests, or maybe it was but now Israel's interests have led US political decisionmaking regarding military and foreign policy in this instance. And I think it's very difficult to argue that that's not the case. In fact, I don't think anyone can make a coherent argument that that's not the case. So that's the other thing that this has revealed. So it's extremely interesting.

And the last thing I'll say on the big picture, Danny, and this kind of speaks to what Alexander was alluding to just a few minutes ago, the plans that have been afoot for this region. And if we look at the situation in Lebanon, the arc of Hezbollah, the arc of Iran, when the dirty war in Syria was set in motion in 2011, they fully expected, and these are from statements by the members of the Obama administration, the intelligence community, and the reporting at the time, which I followed very closely, having covered that conflict, also having been on the ground in Syria during the war when I was working doing journalism there, they fully intended to see the Black Flag flying over Damascus in 2013. Now think about that for a moment. When did the Black Flag end up flying over Damascus? December 2024. That's over a decade behind schedule. Don't think for a moment that they did not expect Syria to collapse. And what also delayed that was Russia's intervention in the fall of 2015, that further hamstrung the west and NATO in this sort of dirty war -- and Israel obviously is very much the leading force in the destabilization of Syria -- the US and Israel they fully expected to do this 10 years earlier. And what happened during that 10-year period is Iran built up its missile program, many generations of drones and missiles, their space program, satellites, proprietary systems, all developed during that decade. So "best laid plans of mice and men," as Robert Burns famously said. And this is why this is not going to plan right now for the United States and for Israel. This is a very different scenario we're experiencing than the one that would have happened in 2015. And that's one way I'm looking at it from a historical perspective.

Yeah. No, great points. And in the closing segment, Alexander, I wanted to get to the role of Russia
minutes, secondsand China here because uh of course a lot has been made in Western mainstream media recently about this as this war
minutes, secondshas gone in a I think a very surprising direction for uh the US and its counterparts uh and its allies. Uh uh
minutes, secondsAlazer wrote this about how Russian China helped see Iran see the battlefield because there have been reports about Russia providing
minutes, secondsintelligence uh in the western mainstream media. American officials are telling the western mainstream that's what they're doing to help uh give Iran
minutes, secondsprecise locations of warships, aircraft and other assets in the region. And then there was this report uh Alexander with
minutes, secondsall the straight of of course with all the reports of the uh straight of hormuz here let me just fix this uh there's
minutes, secondsreports of uh a record nut mount of oil Iran is actually exporting through it and it's
minutes, secondsessentially going all to China. I don't know if that's % accurate but most of it is going to China. And so, uh, I'm
minutes, secondscurious, Alexander, if you could talk about the, uh, role of Russia and China in this war, their positions, and how,
minutes, secondsuh, you've seen, uh, this develop.
minutes, secondsIn some ways, this is a difficult topic because, um, if the Russians and the Chinese are involved in assisting Iran
minutes, secondsmilitarily in some way, then this this assistance is being provided very much
minutes, secondsunder the surface in a deniable in a deniable way. So there's a lot of speculation that the Chinese and the Russians are providing Iran with
minutes, secondsintelligence assistance which might explain why the Iranians are able to stay ahead of the game, why they know
minutes, secondswhere the American bases are, where the American facilities are. I even saw a statement which may have come from an
minutes, secondsIranian military as official. I have to use the word may because there's an awful lot of false force information um circulating. But if this report is true,
minutes, secondsand I think it probably is, he said that the Iranians know exactly where the Americans are in the Mediterranean, in
minutes, secondsthe Arabian Sea, um on land, in every place. They have information about how many troops there are in the various
minutes, secondsbases around the Middle East. If the Iranians have that level of knowledge of the battlefield,
minutes, secondsit is difficult to believe given Iran's limitations.
minutes, secondsIt is not a superpower that Iran could collect this kind of information by
minutes, secondsitself. It is probably receiving it to some extent from China and from Russia.
minutes, secondsThe Chinese definitely have been busy over the last few weeks publishing all sorts of very interesting satellite
minutes, secondsphotos of American bases across the Middle East. You could almost say that that is free upfront publicly provided
minutes, secondsintelligence being provided to the Iranians. So there is that. But let's put that aside.
minutes, secondsThere is I think another critical factor which is that Iran is not alone. Um the very fact that there are two great
minutes, secondspowers China the world's biggest industrial power um a economic
minutes, secondssuperpower by any measure and a military superpower as well saying that it supports Iran that Russia a less
minutes, secondspowerful country but nonetheless a great power with formidable forces not so far
minutes, secondsfrom Iran shares a potential route to Iran through the Caspian Sea,
minutes, secondsthat it supports Iran. The fact that these countries are prepared to speak up for Iran, say that this is a war of
minutes, secondsaggression against Iran, that they're pre able to provide economic help to Iran. All of that makes an enormous
minutes, secondsdifference because if you are in the kind of position that Iran is in,
minutes, secondspsychologically it matters massively that you are not fighting a power, a superpower like the
minutes, secondsUnited States by yourself. Now let's say this war continues. Let's say it becomes protracted.
minutes, secondsLet's say it metastasizes into a long-term war of attrition
minutes, secondsand that we see constant military activity and crisis in the Middle East.
minutes, secondsWell, in that kind of situation, given the stance that the Russians and the Chinese have already taken, I think it
minutes, secondsis very difficult to imagine a situation where they would not start providing
minutes, secondsIran with more overt military aid. In other words, help with missiles, help
minutes, secondswith spare parts, help with other types of weapons, help with drones,
minutes, secondsmanufacturing of drones, and that kind of thing. And the reason the Chinese and
minutes, secondsthe Russians would do that would not just be because the longer that Iran continues fighting, the more important
minutes, secondsit becomes to keep Iran going, but because exactly as happened during the
minutes, secondsVietnam War, the Chinese and the Russians at that point in their own self-interest
minutes, secondswill understand that this is the way they gain leverage over the United States. We discussed this very same
minutes, secondspoint in a program we did together um on this very show some weeks ago and it seems to me that the logic of that, the
minutes, secondscalculus of that is even stronger today now that the war is underway than it was when we discussed it.
minutes, secondsYeah, Patrick, uh same question to you.
minutes, secondsyour observations of of this development that uh has uh only been I think understated by the western mainstream
minutes, secondsmedia with reports of the intelligence assistance from Russia and of course uh the economic assistance and some you
minutes, secondsknow uh talks of the same kind of assistance as well to Iran. Oh sorry you're muted. Hold on there.
minutes, secondsYeah. Yeah. First of all, on the intelligence uh uh question, um I I think um anything in the UAE or Bahrain
minutes, secondsspecifically and Qatar um I I would and and this is this is myself uh what I
minutes, secondslearned when I was in the in the Gulf um working in the Gulf and visiting in the Gulf as well as speaking to people now
minutes, secondswho u u were are I'm talking to from the Gulf reflecting on what's happened over
minutes, secondsthe last uh let's say uh weeks that uh Iran has uh incredible intelligence uh
minutes, secondsin the UAE and in especially in the Bahrain the UAE and Qatar maybe less so in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia but it's
minutes, secondsnot very far from Iran but the the amount of Iranian nationals and and when I say Iranian nationals not just uh you
minutes, secondsknow these aren't service workers these are uh people in management positions business owners uh billionaires that are
minutes, secondsbased in the Gulf. Um they have an incredible intelligence network and what what the US is the mistake the US has made over the years. They're able to
minutes, secondsoperate quite freely in a place like Dubai. It's like sort of Switzerland of the Middle East. Um, so I I would say I
minutes, secondswould assume that Iran knows every single location of every CIA station,
minutes, secondsevery single uh Israeli intelligence uh operation base uh whatever in in places like the Emirates and Bahrain as well um
hour, secondsmore and Qatar. Um so in terms of targeting and intelligence is probably very good uh for that Iran has
hour, secondsincredible capabilities there. Um so I I would say yeah maybe they get some assistance from uh from Russia or China.
hour, secondsQuite a lot could be gleaned as you said uh Danny just from from uh public access satellite imagery um as well no longer
hour, secondsavailable uh for the reasons you stated uh Danny. So that's the first thing. Um uh on the other front uh I would say
hour, secondsthat uh in terms of uh historically you have to remember something about Iran as
hour, secondswell and we we it's different from Syria in the sense that the the Iranians have
hour, secondsthis historic uh you know suspicion of foreign powers including the Soviet Union. Now that that has pedigree that
hour, secondsgoes way back. Assyria didn't have any such reservations um because they've been you know cooperating on certain
hour, minutelevels uh politically um and maybe militarily with with Russia for a very long time. Um so there's a lot of
hour, minute, secondshistory there um and a lot of overlap there in terms of interests. Not so with Iran. It's it's very different. Um certainly economically trading with
hour, minute, secondsChina um and any cooperation there that they they have a lot to to benefit from.
hour, minute, secondsSo does China. It's mutually beneficial um there. Um in terms of Russia has made a lot of offers. They've they've made a
hour, minute, secondslot of overtures to uh militarily speaking. But what do you have to to realize about Iranians? They're fiercely
hour, minute, secondssovereign, fiercely um independent, and they've been like this for a very long time. Um so that makes them different um
hour, minute, secondsin the region than a lot of other countries that for for for to varying degrees have have come under the umbrella of the United States or or the
hour, minute, secondsBritish um empire as well historically Pakistan being a perfect um example of that. So that's why you haven't seen
hour, minutes, secondsthis sort of, you know, o overt coordination. Certainly they could benefit from Russian protection or a Russian no-fly zone or something like
hour, minutes, secondsthat in a way that Syria benefited from it. But why hasn't happened is because politically it's a very different environment um with Iran, the Iranians.
hour, minutes, secondsSo they're very proud of their uh independence, very proud of the sovereignty, stubbornly so. Stubbornly so. And many critics would say too much
hour, minutes, secondsfor their own good. maybe in in a certain respect. Um so so that that that factor is there in the background and I
hour, minutes, secondsthink that also might explain some trepidation on the part of you know Iranian uh leaders and politicians and
hour, minutes, secondsum engaging more directly uh in this kind of military uh alliances um operationally speaking with with the likes of Russia uh and China.
hour, minutes, secondsYeah. Yeah. And Alexander uh uh in Iran have said even of very recently uh in the midst of this war that they don't rely on any other country militarily.
hour, minutes, secondsThat's that's they don't. Um at the same time though just what has transpired in this war already. I I I take it that
hour, minutes, secondsthere are going to be massive global consequences that of course are already taking shape. But I'm curious at this
hour, minutes, secondsstage of the war, how do you see the the world already changing uh what direction and what does that look like? Uh given
hour, minutes, secondsthat we are talking about now the other two uh big powers in the world, Russia and China.
hour, minutes, secondsWell, I I I think what this is going to do is exactly like the Ukraine war did.
hour, minutes, secondsIt is going to deepen cooperation between the other two great powers,
hour, minutes, secondsbetween China and Russia. I mean, the United States has just conducted an overt act of aggression, an overt war of
hour, minutes, secondsaggression against Iran, and which is a friend of both of these countries. And um they're going to say to themselves,
hour, minutes, secondswell, we have a superpower in the United States, which disregards all the rules,
hour, minutes, secondswhich conducts aggressive wars, which creates havoc in the international system. We have to deepen our relations
hour, minutes, secondsand strengthen our de facto alliance with each other because of course if we don't then we're next. So I I I think
hour, minutes, secondsthis is going to accelerate that division that we're already seeing in the world. But as to the immediate
hour, minutes, secondsgeopolitical consequences, it depends a great deal on how this war ends. If the United States is able convincingly to
hour, minutes, secondsclaim some kind of victory in Iran, if it breaks the siege of Hormus, if it
hour, minutes, secondsachieves some kind of regime change, if it there's even a collapse in Iran, then it will be seen as strengthening the
hour, minutes, secondsglobal position of the United States at least for a time. Conversely,
hour, minutes, secondsif it loses, if it suffers a defeat in the Middle East,
hour, minutes, secondsthen the geopolitical effect of that is going to be simply enormous. It will be very, very difficult at that point to
hour, minutes, secondsdispute that the United States is in some kind of relative decline as a
hour, minutes, secondssuperpower if it has proved unable to defeat Iran.
hour, minutes, secondsAnd by the way, if it's been unable to defeat Iran, then it is has no prospect
hour, minutes, secondsof intervening successfully militarily in Ukraine. I mean, all the talk about back stops for European forces in
hour, minutes, secondsUkraine, no fly zones that still some people talk about. I mean, that that goes to pieces. I mean, if they can't
hour, minutes, secondscrush Iran, they have no chance in Ukraine against Russia. just saying but
hour, minutes, secondI I if that happens then I mean the whole landscape the whole political landscape of the Middle East changes and
hour, minutes, secondsthe whole global landscape changes and control of oil routes and things of that that all changes as well and then I
hour, minutes, secondsthink probably even in the United States itself you will start to see a major rethinking of foreign policy. Those
hour, minutes, secondspeople who are advocates of restraint are going to be strengthened. It would be a much bigger disaster for the United
hour, minutes, secondsStates geopolitically than the failure in Iraq ever was. Yeah. Well, uh, same question to you,
hour, minutes, secondsuh, Patrick. How have you seen the world change or how do you see the world changing amid where we are in this war now?
hour, minutes, secondsWell, in so many different ways. And uh the so too many to mention, but uh uh the last point Alexander made I think is
hour, minutes, secondsquite poignant in that um this could be um seen as as much more profound uh even than the Iraq war and the debacle that
hour, minutes, secondsthat's that is now recognized as and Afghanistan for that matter. And for the simple reason is this. Uh the difference between those previous conflicts and
hour, minutes, secondswhat we have now is um Iran has put to uh has put to rest the assumption that
hour, minutes, secondsuh and the and the big red line you know the United States has never attacked a country that could hit back in any significant way. That's always been a
hour, minutes, secondsred line for the US military. The entire doctrine, the entire posture uh during their unipolar moment was predicated on rapid reaction, surgical uh operations,
hour, minutes, secondsuh uh limited operations, uh shock and awe. Um but it never factored in uh a country that could actually strike back
hour, minutes, secondsand in any kind of meaningful way. And Iran is the first in history to do that,
hour, minutes, secondsnot only to the United States, but to attack um Israel in in a meaningful way.
hour, minutes, secondsuh and and and inflict real pain on on Israel. Israel is a bonafide regional superpower. They are the militarily
hour, minutes, secondsspeaking the regional superpower. The United States is is the global military superpower. So they've t Iran's taken on
hour, minutes, secondsboth of them. Now the bad the dark side of this is uh the United States also has
hour, minutes, secondsform in history that if it feels that it is losing um that it reserves the right to deploy uh overwhelming force and that could that could come in different ways.
hour, minutes, secondsIt could come in the leveling of Pangyang during the Korean War. It could come in the form of the firebombing of Dresden. could come in the form of
hour, minutes, secondsHiroshima and Nagasaki, be it tactical or strategic nuclear weapons or operation rolling thunder under uh
hour, minutes, secondsLynden Baines Johnson uh and Richard Nixon. Um so that's the dark side of this. Uh would the political pressure be
hour, minutes, secondssuch uh in the US and combined with the Israeli political pressure uh to draw a line under this conflict by dropping the
hour, minutes, secondsham the hammer of all hammers uh in making a ma massive statement not only to the Iranians but to the world. Um and
hour, minutes, secondsand that would result in I think um I I I don't know where where we would be in terms of uh the global conversation at
hour, minutes, secondsthat point. Certainly, we'd be into a new era um where all bets are off um on on so many different uh factors of
hour, minutes, secondstrying to game out World War II and and the changing of the global order and so forth, the economic collapse that would
hour, minutes, secondscoincide with this that is coinciding with this right now even as we speak.
hour, minutes, secondsSo, um, so there's different there's still some unknown there's still some unknowns here in terms of how uh what could potentially unfold here and and I
hour, minutes, secondsof course would would like uh to see that not happen of course and to see this contained into a conventional uh uh
hour, minutes, secondframe. if it if it is contain contain contained into a conventional warfare frame um I think I think uh that the
hour, minutes, secondsUnited States will be the loser um just just by nature the fact that now all of the region and their former allies are
hour, minutes, secondshave already begun to re-evaluate the relationship um with the US and this the nature of this protection racket that that America has been running uh and
hour, minutes, secondsalso the the nature of the Abraham Accords are dead the Abraham Accords are dead. They're never coming back. Um, we
hour, minutes, secondscould have a, you know, bring in the bring in the uh the the the the cohort of uherary violinists uh over the
hour, minutes, secondsAbraham Accords. Now it's over. So, so these are profound outcomes already. The question is uh what what what how is
hour, minutes, secondsIsrael and the US going to react in the face of defeat or or potential defeat? That's that's still an open question.
hour, minutesYeah. Well, uh, maybe I can get both of your final comments on anything that we haven't spoken of, but to that point,
hour, minutes, secondsone of our viewers was asking, can Iran stop Israel if Israel tries to Samson option? This is something that is definitely on the minds of viewers here.
hour, minutes, secondsAnd it certainly is on the minds, I think, of a lot of us who are analyzing the situation and seeing how, you know,
hour, minutes, secondswe are getting to the point where wars are becoming for the United States, for the empire, for Israel, and anyone else following the US along as well. Uh,
hour, minutes, secondsthey're they're coming to this very dangerous point. I think that's what we've been all I think all been talking about over the last even decade or so.
hour, minutes, secondsBut uh Alexander any uh last remarks and then and then Patrick any last remarks as well as we head out?
hour, minutes, secondsI mean Patrick is is absolutely right. I mean the stakes in this for the United States now are enormous. I mean, the
hour, minutes, secondsUnited States could walk away from Vietnam and it could walk away from Iraq and its global position was dented but not fundamentally undermined or damaged.
hour, minutes, secondThis is completely different. I I if the United States suffers a defeat at the hands of Iran at a time when the United
hour, minutes, secondsStates senses that the balance of economic power is also shifting against
hour, minutes, secondsit and suffers this defeat in the Middle East then this is an absolute geopolitical crisis. I mean nothing
hour, minutes, secondsnothing would replace it and of course for Israel it is an even greater crisis.
hour, minutes, secondsI mean, uh, Patrick was talking about this ring of bases and facilities that had been created around Israel in order
hour, minutes, secondsto protect Israel. If we have a situation where all of that is brought into question, where potentially the
hour, minutes, secondsUnited States withdraws, which is not an impossible or fantastic possibility in the event of an American defeat, well,
hour, minutes, secondswhere does that leave Israel? Exactly.
hour, minutes, secondAnd how does Israel at that point respond to a local security environment
hour, minutes, secondswhich is profoundly different from that which it has known over the last or
hour, minutes, secondsso years. So for Israel it's a critical it's a crisis moment as well. And given
hour, minutes, secondssome of the opinions that we've heard expressed by some people in Israel, it's very very difficult, very worrying to know how they might respond.
hour, minutes, secondsYeah. And Patrick, uh any final words as we close here?
hour, minutes, secondsYeah. And and just to to add to what Alexander said, you know, um if the US were to withdraw from its positions uh
hour, minutes, secondsin the Persian Gulf, those those main bases uh around the Ark of the Persian Gulf and in Iraq uh as well, uh I don't
hour, minutesthink they do have I think an important facility in Turkey and and insulate air force base, but um but it's Iran could
hour, minutes, secondsalso extend uh the the their targeting uh perimeter and That might include Djibouti. Uh that might include Diego
hour, minutes, secondsGarcia is very much in range of an intermediate.
hour, minutes, secondsIran has missile capabilities to hit Diego Garcia. They haven't yet. Um and also Cyprus um as well. We we can't uh
hour, minutes, secondsignore the fact that Cypress is an important uh escape hatch uh for the Israelis, but it's also uh a the major
hour, minutes, secondslistening station in the region for GCHQ uh and also the NSA. they they Israel coordinates. They triangulate with
hour, minutes, secondsCyprus in terms of signals intelligence and so forth. So that those are all interlin with all of Israel's uh
hour, minutes, secondslistening and forward uh uh detection and surveillance. Okay, it's all uh part of a ring that RAF Equatori and the US
hour, minutes, secondsbase in Cypress is is part of that. Um so but I if if this if this conflict extends to uh to Djibouti um to some of
hour, minutes, secondsthese other uh facilities as well. I mean maybe that's that's something the US might be able to manage in a standoff
hour, minutes, secondsum position as well. But it is a very different region uh once you take them out of the Persian Gulf and then you
hour, minutes, secondshave you have the potential for uh independent Arab states uh possibly coming together. I mean, I I would not
hour, minutes, secondseven personally uh if this if this if this becomes a war of attrition, if we're talking about a couple of years, I
hour, minutes, secondsmean, this could just be waves of different attacks by the US and Israel,
hour, minutes, secondsthis could just reinflame every few every six months. Um, it could be over the course of years. It might end up in a with a ground invasion by the US in two years time or something like this.
hour, minutes, secondsBut in I if that happens, Gulf states,
hour, minutes, secondsif they're still able to survive and they're viable, they're going to be having a very very different thought about the security architecture of the
hour, minutes, secondsregion. So much so that you may even see uh uh something like uh Saudi Arabia or some of these Gulf states for their own
hour, minutes, secondssurvival they might find it prudent to back the PMUs uh in Iraq as a sort of
hour, minutes, secondspredictable and stable bull work against some of these problems. So that might seem like something crazy today, but
hour, minutes, secondsthey did back all of the jihadist and you know ISIS type elements for west for for Western Israeli interests before.
hour, minutes, secondsThey did wage a war against Yemen at the behest of the United States for many years. Um and that didn't seem to work
hour, minutes, secondsout very well for the Gulf States. So they could also change maybe some of their interest and the things that they're doing, the the projects and the
hour, minutes, secondspeople that they're backing as well. And that would have a profound transformation I think overall and certainly make my life more much more
hour, minutes, secondsuncomfortable for the United States. So it's it's a possibility but these are some of again some of the things that possibilities that uh might might come up in the future.
hour, minutes, secondsYeah. Well uh gentlemen we'll have to come back together at some point very soon. Uh uh this was a great show. So, I want to make sure everybody knows that
hour, minutes, secondsboth of your uh all of your work or or both of your individual works are in the video description, Alexander, your
hour, minutes, secondsindividual YouTube, the Duran YouTube channel and Patrick, your Substack and st Century Wire YouTube channel. I wanted to make sure everyone hits the like button before they go. Um, and I
hour, minutes, secondswant to thank everyone who supported today. I really appreciate all of you uh for coming out here. Uh, those who were able to give super chats, those who
hour, minutes, secondsweren't. Um, I want to also thank all the moderators, of course. And we'll head out of here together. Everyone, hit the like button before you go. That
hour, minutes, secondshelps continue to get Alexander and Patrick's uh voice out there. And you can check their work on the video description. And all the places support
hour, minutes, secondsthis channel are there as well. I'll see you tomorrow a.m. Eastern time with Professor John uh Gianuin. Uh, so join me then. a.m. Eastern time,
hour, minutes, secondsMarch th. All right. See you then. Bye-bye. Okay. Uh, there we go.

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https://t.me/JantaKaReporter/2125

US-owned SAFESEA VISHNU was destroyed by underwater Iranian drones. Another American tanker too was sunk. This is the first time Iranians have sunk two American oil tankers in this conflict.

https://t.me/JantaKaReporter/2128

Another video of the moment when the US ship was hit by Iranian explosives.