Iran Just Exposed The Saudi Base That Was Building Israel's Air Power: The F-35 Fueling Hub
Warfare Meet History
Mar 15, 2026
The geopolitical silence has been broken by a massive, high-velocity confirmation. On March 14, 2026, the Iranian Revolutionary Guard (IRGC) claimed a direct hit on Prince Sultan Air Base (PSAB) in Saudi Arabia—not as a random act of aggression, but as a surgical strike against what they call the "hidden heart" of Israel’s air dominance. Tehran has now explicitly branded PSAB as a clandestine fueling and logistical hub for Israeli F-35I "Adir" stealth fighters, alleging that these jets have been utilizing the base as a "midway point" to extend their strike range deep into Iranian territory. This explosive revelation, backed by Iranian intelligence reports of a massive $500 million strike that reportedly damaged five U.S. KC-135 Stratotankers on the ground, has unmasked a level of covert regional cooperation that neither Washington nor Riyadh has ever publicly admitted.
The impact of this "exposure" is creating a political firestorm across the Middle East. While Saudi Arabia officially maintains that its airspace is not being used to attack Iran, the presence of critical U.S. aerial refueling assets—the "flying gas stations" that allow stealth fighters to operate hundreds of miles from their home bases—has turned PSAB into a prime target. By hitting these tankers, Iran is not just attacking a base; they are attempting to physically sever the "Kill Chain" that allows the IAF to operate over Tehran with impunity. As the Trump administration pushes for a global naval coalition to force open the Strait of Hormuz, the strike at Prince Sultan Air Base signals that the war is no longer confined to the borders of the combatants. It has become a battle over the invisible lines of logistical support that keep the world's most advanced air forces in the sky.
Transcript
An Iranian ballistic missile dropped out of a clear desert sky and slammed into the tarmac of Prince Sultan Air Base in Saudi Arabia. And five of the most
strategically important aircraft in the American arsenal, KC Stratanker refueling planes were blown off their landing gear simultaneously, not
destroyed, damaged. But here's what the Pentagon didn't say in the hours that followed and what the White House was not rushing to explain. Those weren't
just tankers. They were the invisible spine of Israel's entire air war against Iran. And Iran just proved it knew exactly where that spine was. It is
Sunday, March th, It is a.m. local time at Prince Sultan Air Base, km southeast of Riyad. And
somewhere in the rubble of that flight line, inside the scorched aluminum of those KCs,
lies the answer to a question Washington has never publicly answered. Who exactly has been refueling the F-I Adir stealth jets that have been penetrating
Iranian airspace since the first strikes of Operation Epic Fury on February th?
The answer, it turns out, has been Saudi Arabia all along. And Iran just told the world. There's a third person in this story. Someone who was not in any of the
negotiating rooms, not in Geneva, not in Musket, not photographed with Steve Witoff or Abbas Ragchi, someone who has been quietly shaping every military
decision made in this conflict from a location that no intelligence agency has publicly confirmed. We'll come back to that, but first you need to understand
exactly what was sitting on that Saudi airfield and why its destruction would have been, in the words of one former Sentcom logistics officer, a killshot to
Israeli strike operations. Aerial refueling aircraft such as the KCrepresent a critical enabling system for longrange air operations, meaning that
even limited damage to tanker fleets can produce disproportionate effects on sorty generation, mission endurance, and the ability to sustain high tempmpo
combat activity across the Middle East theater. That's the careful bureaucratic way of saying it. Here's the direct way.
Without those tankers airborne and positioned in the right corridor, the F-Iadier cannot reach for. It cannot reach Natans. It cannot reach the
shardened mountain tunnels beneath SEN where Iranian engineers have been quietly moving their most sensitive nuclear hardware for the past months.
The F-Adair has a publicly stated combat radius of roughly m. Thran is approximately miles from Israeli
territory. You do not have to be a general to do that math. Israel and the US modified the F-system to carry additional fuel that did not impact the
F-'s stealth features with one US defense official confirming this is a gamecher. Israel had our cooperation on this modification. But even with those
modified external drop tanks, a technical feat described as surgery on an existing jet because any change to the F-'s body risks compromising its
radar absorbent materials. The math still doesn't close without aerial refueling over Saudi or Jordanian airspace. And that is the secret Prince
Sultan Air Base has been holding since at least the opening hours of Operation Epic Fury. Two weeks ago, signal number
one. On February th, hours before the bombs fell, F-As from Hill Air Force Base, Utah, arrived at RF
Lacken Heath in England, a base frequently used as a stopover for fighters heading to the Middle East.
That same day, a dozen F-E Strike Eagles departed Seymour Johnson Air Force Base in North Carolina and also arrived at Lyken Heath with more
arriving the following day. Open source flight trackers lit up. Spotters with cameras and radio scanners cataloged every registration number. But the tankers,
the tankers were already gone. They had been prepositioned at Prince Sultan days, possibly weeks earlier, quietly without announcement, without a scentcom
press release, without crucially any acknowledgement of what mission profile they were supporting. According to OSENT analyst Stefan Watkins, as much as %
minutes, secondsof the US tanker fleet has been airborne at various times during the period of heightened operations. %.
minutes, secondsThat is not a defensive posture. That is an operational rhythm that can only be explained by a sustained high tempmpo strike campaign requiring aerial
minutes, secondsrefueling at multiple points across a kmter theater. Every sorty those F-s flew from Nevatim air base in the
minutes, secondsNegv toward Iranian nuclear facilities involved at least one aerial refueling rendevous over Saudi territory. Every single one. And the Iranians knew it.
minutes, secondsThey've known it since June when Israeli pilots described how they saw Iran's defense arrays waking up, if at all, only after the strike had already
minutes, secondsbeen completed during Operation Rising Lion. Thrron's analysts spent eight months studying every data point of that -day war. They tracked the flight
minutes, secondspaths. They measured the fuel burn. They back calculated the refueling windows.
minutes, secondsAnd what they found pointed directly at Prince Sultan. Here's what nobody is telling you. The strike on those KCs
minutes, secondson March th was not impulsive. It was not a random retaliation. It was the product of Iranian intelligence analysis that identified the single logistical
minutes, secondsnode that makes Israeli F-deep strike missions possible and then systematically targeted it. The strike
minutes, secondsdemonstrates that Iranian forces are willing to target bases inside Saudi Arabia, expanding the geographic scope of the conflict to include partner
minutes, secondsnations hosting US forces rather than only direct combat zones. But more than that, it signals that Iran has mapped the entire architecture of the American Israeli air war. Every relay point,
minutes, secondsevery tanker corridor, every forward operating base that Washington never officially admitted was part of this campaign. Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Qatar,
minutes, secondsand the United Arab Emirates have each stated or suggested they would not permit the United States to use their airspace or bases to conduct strikes on
minutes, secondsIran. They said that publicly for the cameras, for the Arab street, for their own populations who were watching this war unfold on Al Jazzer with growing
minutes, secondsfury. But here's the gap between the public statement and the operational reality. Prince Sultan Air Base is a strategic forward operating base located
minutes, secondsin the Saudi interior some kil kilos from the Iranian coast and it regularly hosts US assets. When Iranian ballistic
minutes, secondsmissiles started raining down on it on March th, footage of which spread across X within minutes, showing an impact. so close to US service members on the tarmac that the blast wave
minutes, secondsvisibly moved them. Saudi Arabia did not expel American forces. They did not even formally protest because they couldn't because they are in this war whether
minutes, secondsthey publicly admit it or not. And now we reach the catch, the first pivot.
minutes, secondsBecause here's what changes everything you just heard. President Trump said on Saturday that four of the five tanker aircraft targeted suffered virtually no
minutes, secondsdamage and are already back in service with the fifth expected to return to the air shortly. four of five back in the air rapidly and open source tracking data confirmed it. Despite the attack,
minutes, secondsthe base remained active with multiple tankers tracking online during aerial refueling missions launched from Prince Sultan. Iran didn't the spine.
minutes, secondsIt scratched it. And in doing so, it may have miscalculated in a way that has now accelerated the American military timeline rather than slowing it. Because
minutes, secondswhat Iran actually accomplished on March th was to publicly declare to every defense ministry on Earth, to every satellite intelligence service watching
minutes, secondsthat it knows where the F-fueling chain lives. And the moment that intelligence is public, the Americans have to respond. Not with more refueling
minutes, secondstankers in the same spot, with a dramatic escalation in the tempo of strikes designed to finish this war before Iran can find and target the next
minutes, secondsnode in the chain. That is the logic of the situation as of this morning, and it is terrifying.
minutes, secondsLet's go back to February th to a hotel in Geneva and the room is divided by more than walls. US envoys Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff sat with
minutes, secondsOman's foreign minister Bin Hammed al-Busidi as part of Omani mediated indirect talks with the two delegations in separate rooms and al-Busidi carrying
minutes, secondsmessages between them. Iraqi was down the corridor. Witito was at the table and the Omani diplomat was walking back and forth across a carpeted hallway
minutes, secondscarrying the diplomatic equivalent of live grenades. The US side was disappointed by the Iranian positions during the morning session. But Omani
minutes, secondsforeign minister Al- Busidi said after that session that they had shown significant progress and Argi said both sides had shown clear seriousness about getting a deal. Progress. Seriousness.
minutes, secondsThose words were chosen carefully because what was actually on the table in that Geneva hotel was something Iran had never previously offered. Iran
minutes, secondsproposed a three-step plan in which it would temporarily lower uranium enrichment to three. % halt high level
minutes, secondsenrichment permanently, restore IAEA inspections, and commit to implementing the additional protocol allowing for surprise inspections at undeclared
minutes, secondssites. For context, the JCPOA, the deal that took years of multilateral diplomacy to produce, the deal Trump
minutes, secondswalked away from in capped Iran at %. Iran was offering to go back to that threshold. That is not nothing.
minutes, secondsThat is by any technical measure of nuclear non-prololiferation, a significant concession. But here's what Witco told Trump when he flew back from
minutes, secondsGeneva, less than hours before the coordinated US-Israeli strikes on Iran began on February th, the third round
minutes, secondsof Omani mediated talks ended in Geneva with Oman's foreign minister assessing substantial progress and agreement to meet again on March nd for technical
minutes, secondstalks. And then Trump said he was not happy with the way they were negotiating.
minutes, secondshours later, the bombs fell. By the time the third round of talks ended in Geneva, Trump had likely already made the decision to go to war. That's not
minutes, secondsspeculation. That's what the Arms Control Association said publicly,
minutes, secondsciting recordings and transcripts from briefings with Witoff himself. The question that hangs over this entire war, the question that foreign
minutes, secondsministries from Ankra to Beijing are asking is whether the Geneva talks were a genuine diplomatic effort or whether they were a delay mechanism designed to
minutes, secondskeep Iran at the table while the Pentagon finished prepositioning its assets. F-As at Lacken Heath.
minutes, secondsDozens of KC s at Prince Sultan. The USS Gerald R. Ford carrier strike group moving toward the Israeli coast. The USS
minutes, secondsAbraham Lincoln carrying F-C's and FAs already in the waters south of Iran. The F-Raptors that had helped
minutes, secondsescort BSpirit stealth bombers during last June's Operation Midnight Hammer Strikes on Iran's nuclear facilities were being deployed to Israel for the first time for possible combat
minutes, secondsoperations. The chest pieces were all in place before Witoff sat down across that hallway from Arachi. The Omani diplomat was carrying messages between rooms, but
minutes, secondsthe real message was being written on a targeting list ft above the Persian Gulf. Now, the third person in the room, Netanyahu, not physically in
minutes, secondsGeneva, but present in every sentence Witkoff uttered to his Iranian counterparts. On the Tuesday before the Geneva talks,
minutes, secondsWhite House envoy Steve Witco met in Israel with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and a group of senior Israeli defense officials. Israeli officials
minutes, secondssaid Witkoff was briefed on Israel's latest intelligence on Iran and that Netanyahu emphasized that Iran can't be trusted. Netanyahu briefed WhitF.
minutes, secondsNetanyahu shaped the American position.
minutes, secondsAnd then Netanyahu watched as Whit carried that briefing, that assessment,
minutes, secondthat worldview, that strategic preference for military action over a deal into the room with the Iranians.
minutes, secondsThis is the hardliner in the room that nobody in Washington wants to discuss on camera. Israel had a direct channel into the American negotiating position. And
minutes, secondsIsrael's position, as it has been since June was that no deal that leaves Iran with any enrichment capability is
minutes, secondsacceptable. Israel is the only country in the Middle East currently operating F-jets, having used them in air strikes on Iran in October and June
minutes, secondsThe F-'s ability to destroy Iranian air defense systems allowed older Israeli planes to operate over Iran almost unchallenged, likely
minutes, secondscontributing significantly to Israel's success. Israel has now used this aircraft in combat against Iran twice.
minutes, secondsThe institutional knowledge the Israeli Air Force has built up, the tactics, the electronic warfare profiles, the refueling corridors, the penetration
minutes, secondsroutes is unparalleled, and it is knowledge that Israel has no interest in surrendering to a diplomatic agreement that allows Iran to rebuild those air defense networks over the next years.
minutes, secondsThis brings us to the F-fueling question that the title of the story raises and to the secret that Prince Sultan Air Base has been keeping for the
minutes, secondsbetter part of two years. Israel's Fi Adir has had conformal fuel tanks and external tanks developed that are
minutes, secondscompatible with the aircraft. A capability no other F-operator possesses, giving it far greater endurance for deep strike missions
minutes, secondsagainst high-v value Iranian nuclear sites such as Fordo and Natans. That is the hardware side, but hardware alone doesn't get you there. The software side
minutes, secondsis equally critical. Unlike any other F-operator, Israel possesses direct access to the jet's source codes, allowing it to modify mission software,
minutes, secondsintegrate new weapons, and customize flight systems independent of US oversight. This autonomy is the single most important asymmetric advantage in
minutes, secondsthe current war. It means Israel's F-s are effectively a different weapon system than any other F-on Earth.
minutes, secondsThey carry different electronic warfare packages. They communicate through different data links. They can carry weapons, including, according to some intelligence assessments, domestically
minutes, secondsproduced penetrator munitions that no other F-pilot has ever been cleared to deploy. Israel's ability to customize
minutes, secondsparts of its F-fleet software has provided opportunities for the aircraft to integrate indigenous weaponry,
minutes, secondsfueling considerable speculation that the aircraft may be able to deliver locally produced nuclear weapons. That sentence from a serious defense analysis
minutes, secondspublication is extraordinary. We are not in the realm of conspiracy theory. We are in the realm of what happens when a nation state has complete software
minutes, secondsautonomy over the world's most advanced stealth fighter combined with a confirmed nuclear arsenal and an existential threat sitting miles
minutes, secondsaway. And the fueling hub that makes all of it operationally possible has been sitting at Prince Sultan Air Base in Saudi Arabia in plain sight of Iranian
minutes, secondssatellite imagery. And apparently known to Iranian intelligence operatives who spent eight months after Operation Rising Lion reverse engineering every flight path, every refueling window,
minutes, secondsevery tanker registration number that appeared in open source flight tracking data. But here's the second catch. The second pivot that flips this entire
minutes, secondsnarrative again. Several of America's Arab partners, including Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the UAE, have stated or suggested that they would not permit
minutes, secondsthe United States to use their airspace or bases to conduct strikes on Iran,
minutes, secondswith some making their announcements after conversations with senior Iranian officials. They publicly refused, but Prince Sultan was operational, which
minutes, secondsmeans one of two things is true. Either Saudi Arabia privately authorized the refueling operations while publicly denying them, a piece of diplomatic
minutes, secondsperformance theater designed to protect Riad from Iranian retaliation, or the United States was conducting tanker operations from Saudi soil without the
minutes, secondsexplicit sanction of the Saudi government. Neither option is comfortable for Washington. Both options explain why when the missiles hit those
minutes, secondsKCs on March th, the United States Central Command declined to comment.
minutes, secondsSentcom has not released any official statement on the incident. No statement on five American military aircraft being struck by an Iranian ballistic missile
minutes, secondson the soil of a declared major non-NATO ally. The silence itself is a confession. A US service member died after being seriously injured during an attack at the Saudi base on March st.
minutes, secondsAnd the Saudi Ministry of Defense stated they intercepted five Iranian drones near Prince Sultan on the following day. By March th, two weeks into this war,
minutes, secondsthe total number of US refueling aircraft grounded had risen to seven after two KCs were also damaged in what appeared to be a mid-air collision.
minutes, secondsAll six crew members aboard the KCthat crashed near Trival along the Iraqi Jordanian border were killed as
minutes, secondsconfirmed by the Pentagon on Friday. Six Americans dead in a tanker crash over Iraq. Five more tankers hit on the ground in Saudi Arabia. The conflict in
minutes, secondsis pushing these vintage airframes and their crews to the breaking point.
minutes, secondsThis is the cost of the F-fueling hub that America never admitted. Not just in dollars, in lives. Conservative estimates from congressional sources put
minutes, secondsthe cost of this war at roughly $billion a day on top of a federal budget already structurally stressed. $billion every hours. And what has it
minutes, secondsbought? The effective closure of the Straight of Hormuz, through which % of the world's daily oil supply normally flows, has driven tanker traffic down
minutes, secondsroughly %, creating a net daily supply shortfall of approximately million barrels. The straight is essentially
minutes, secondsclosed. Not because Iran built a physical wall across it. Because, as one analyst put it with devastating clarity,
minutes, secondsit's not the missiles that closed the straight, it's the actuarial tables.
minutes, secondsInsurance underwriters pulled war risk coverage. Without insurance, no ship owner sends a vessel through. And without those vessels, the global energy
minutes, secondssystem begins to seize. Brent crude oil futures um have closed above $per barrel for a second consecutive day.
minutes, secondsCalifornia gasoline prices have already exceeded $per gallon. The IEA's member states unanimously agreed to release million barrels of oil from
minutes, secondsemergency reserves, roughly days of global consumption. Four days, that's the buffer. The global economy has approximately days of emergency
minutes, secondscushion against the complete closure of the Strait of Hormuz. And the strait has now been effectively closed for days.
minutes, secondsHere's the geopolitical domino effect in real time. The straight closes. Iranian sea drones, explosive drone boats using encryption and frequency hopping in the
minutes, secondscritical shipping lane, attack the oil tankers that tried to run the blockade. Anyway, Saudi Arabia reduces its oil production by % after the shutdown of two offshore fields,
minutes, secondsincluding the Sophania oil field. Brent crude hits $in a single session,
minutes, secondsbriefly crashes back to $on a false report from the energy secretary that the Navy has begun escorting tankers through the strait recovers toward $
minutes, secondswhen the White House press secretary clarifies the tweet was wrong. Somewhere a few hundred traders make a lot of money on that gap. The global south,
minutes, secondsnations without strategic petroleum reserves, without petro dollar buffers,
minutes, secondsbegins to feel genuine energy poverty within the first week. India's restaurants face an LPG supply crisis. Fertilizer exports through the strait,
minutes, secondwhich account for a significant portion of global food production inputs, have effectively halted. The food system and the energy system are being squeezed
minutes, secondssimultaneously. And in Washington, in the situation room, the people running this war are realizing something that their pre-war models did not adequately
minutes, secondscapture. Iran is not trying to win militarily. Iran's strategy of horizontal escalation, widening the conflict across nine countries rather
minutes, secondsthan fighting to win militarily, mirrors historical playbooks from Vietnam and Kosovo that cost the United States dearly. They are not trying to defeat
minutes, secondsthe USS Abraham Lincoln or shoot down an F-Raptor. They are trying to outlast the American will. They are trying to make this war expensive enough, long
minutes, secondsenough, and painful enough that the domestic political mathematics in Washington shift because Iran is holding out, believing the US will quit the
minutes, secondsfight. That is the Iranian strategic assessment as of this morning. And they may not be wrong. Trump said in an interview the war would end when I feel
minutes, secondsit in my bones. That is not a strategic objective. That is a mood. And moods change. Signal number two. Watch what's
minutes, secondshappening right now with the new Iranian Supreme Leader. Iran's new Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Moshaba Kame, son of
minutes, secondsthe late Ali Kamani, who was killed in the opening strikes of Operation Epic Fury, has issued his first public statement vowing to avenge those killed
minutes, secondsin the war and pledging that the Straight of Hormuz will remain closed until the war ends. The father's death created the son's mandate. And the Sun,
minutes, secondsyounger, more ideologically hardened with more to prove and less institutional memory of Iran's pre-revolutionary economic integration with the West, is not sending back
minutes, secondschannel messages asking about deal frameworks. He is planting his flag in the rubble of the American strike on Car Island and saying, "We will outlast
minutes, secondsyou." Trump, for his part, said he directed Sentcom to bomb more than $Iranian military targets on Car Island while preserving the oil infrastructure.
minutes, secondsWriting on Truth Social, "Our weapons are the most powerful and sophisticated that the world has ever known. But for reasons of decency, I have chosen not to
minutes, secondswipe out the oil infrastructure on the island."
minutes, secondsFor reasons of decency. That is the presidential framing of a decision that JP Morgan analysts have privately been calling the most consequential binary
minutes, secondschoice of the entire war. If Carg Island's oil infrastructure were fully disabled, analysts at JP Morgan said the loss of Iran's storage buffer and
minutes, secondsscarcity of viable export alternatives would rapidly trigger upstream shutins across major southwest fields with as much as half of Iran's national output
minutes, secondsat risk. The oil infrastructure on Carg is Trump's ultimate card, and he just told the world he has it and chose not
minutes, secondsto play it yet. Now, back to the question of who has been in this war that nobody on camera will acknowledge.
minutes, secondsBack to the base that was building Israel's air power. Back to Prince Sultan. The Royal Saudi Air Force is expected to require extensive tanker
minutes, secondssupport, likely KCA or AMRTS to achieve strategic range operations,
minutes, secondsparticularly for missions surveilling or deterring Iran's ballistic missile infrastructure, IRGC naval assets, and Cuds force facilities in the Persian
minutes, secondsGulf. Saudi Arabia's own military planning has always assumed American refueling infrastructure would be the backbone of any high-intensity regional
minutes, secondscampaign. Which means Prince Sultan was never just a base for American operations. It was the foundation of the entire Gulf security architecture. The
minutes, secondsbase that made Israeli F-deep strikes possible. The base that made American Braids on Fordo and Natans possible. The base that connected every aerial
minutes, secondsrefueling corridor from Nevatim to the Gulf of Oman. And Iran, after eight months of targeting analysis, put a ballistic missile right through its
minutes, secondsfront gate. Iran's foreign minister Arachi in a social media post after the strikes began wrote that Washington had squandered a diplomatic opening saying,
minutes, seconds"Plan A for a clean, rapid military victory failed, Mr. President. Your plan B will be even bigger failure." That post went up hours after the Geneva
minutes, secondstalks collapsed and the bombs began falling. Arachi also said the deal was lost after the intervention of what he called an America last cabal.
minutes, secondHe didn't need to name Netanyahu.
minutes, secondsEveryone in the diplomatic community understood exactly who he meant. The Arms Control Association noted that Oman's foreign minister assessed substantial progress in the Geneva
minutes, secondstalks, an agreement to meet again for technical discussions, and then less than hours later, the coordinated USIsraeli strikes began, less than hours. Iraqi's fury is not irrational.
minutes, secondsThe Omani mediator was told there would be another round of talks. He had already arranged the venue. The Iranian technical team was preparing to travel to Vienna for expert level discussions
minutes, secondson verification protocols and enrichment thresholds. And then the sky over Thran lit up with cruise missiles. When asked
minutes, secondsabout negotiations, Arachi told NBC News, "We are not asking for ceasefire.
minutes, secondsWe don't see any reason why we should negotiate when we negotiated with them twice and every time they attacked us in the middle of negotiations." Twice. June
minutes, secondsduring the -day war. February during the Geneva round. Both times active diplomacy. Both times American
minutesand Israeli strikes. Iran's foreign minister is telling the world we cannot negotiate with a partner that strikes while talking. And he is not wrong about
minutes, secondsthe timeline. Whether he is right about the strategic intent whether the United States was genuinely seeking a deal or using talks as a delay mechanism is a
minutes, secondsquestion that historians will spend decades litigating. But here's the third pivot. The catch that changes the catch.
minutes, secondsThe US came into the Geneva talks with a demand that Iran agree any future nuclear deal will remain in effect indefinitely and give up its stockpile
minutes, secondsof kg of enriched uranium. The US was willing to show flexibility on Iran's demand to retain the right to enrich uranium, but only if tan could prove there was no path to a bomb.
minutes, secondskgs of enriched uranium. That stockpile, if further processed to weapons grade, represents the raw material for multiple nuclear devices.
minutes, secondsIt is the single most contested number in this entire conflict. Iran would not transfer it abroad. The US insisted it must leave Iranian soil. Neither side
minutes, secondswould move. And in that gap, that specific technical, seemingly mundane disagreement about the physical location of kg of fistal material, a war
minutes, secondsbegan. While Iran intended to retain its enriched uranium stockpile within its borders, the US insisted it must be transferred to a third country. Trump
minutes, secondsalso rejected Putin's proposal to move Iranian enriched uranium to Russia. Even Putin tried to solve this problem. Trump said no. Think about what that means.
minutes, secondsRussia offered to take Iran's enriched uranium off the table, literally. And the United States refused. Because the issue was never just the uranium. The
minutes, secondsissue was regime change. The issue was that a Washington that had spent two years watching Israel demonstrate the F-'s ability to penetrate Iranian
minutes, secondsairspace had concluded that military pressure, not diplomacy, was the tool most likely to achieve not just denuclearization, but a fundamental
minutes, secondstransformation of the Iranian political system. Trump told reporters the war would last as long as necessary. And when asked about Iranians toppling the
minutes, secondsIslamic government, he said that's a big hurdle to climb for people who don't have weapons. citing Iran's paramilitary basage force. He knows regime change isn't imminent. His own words admitted.
minutes, secondsAnd yet, the military campaign continues. At a billion dollars a day, with the straight of Hormuz closed,
minutes, secondsglobal food and energy systems under stress, and seven American KCtankers,
minutes, secondsthe invisible backbone of this entire war, damaged or destroyed in the skies and on the airfields of a country that is not officially in this conflict. The
minutes, secondsUS embassy in Iraq urged citizens to leave the country immediately. The Formula organization canceled its Bahrain and Saudi Arabia Grand Prix
minutes, secondsraces. Iran deployed explosive suicide skiffs disguised as fishing boats in the straight of Hormuz. The French carrier strike group Charles de Gaulle with to
minutes, secondsships entered the Mediterranean heading toward the eastern Med and Red Sea. Marines from the st Marine Expeditionary Unit aboard the USS Tripoli were ordered to the Middle East.
minutes, secondsNot for a ground invasion, the administration insists, but for embassy security, evacuation operations, and coastal special operations. An
minutes, secondsamphibious assault ship in the Persian Gulf, Marines, a closed straight, a new Supreme Leader vowing to continue the war, and five damaged KC strat
minutes, secondstankers at a base that America never officially admitted was the beating heart of Israel's most consequential air campaign in a generation. The first week
minutes, secondsof Operation Epic Fury alone cost roughly $billion. And Congress will soon take up a supplemental funding package to replenish weapon stockpiles,
minutes, secondsfacing razor thin Republican majorities and conservative fiscal hawks in both chambers. $billion in days. The
minutes, secondsmath of sustaining this campaign without a political endgame is becoming impossible to ignore, and the Iranians are counting on it. Here is what we know as of this morning, Sunday, March th,
minutes, secondsThe KCtankers at Prince Sultan are back in the air, most of them. The F-s at Neatim are still flying.
minutes, secondsIsraeli jets struck more than Iranian infrastructure targets over just the past day, including ballistic missile launchers loaded and ready to
minutes, secondsfire toward Israel. The war is not pausing, it is accelerating. And Iran, having exposed the Saudi tanker base,
minutes, secondshaving demonstrated that it knows exactly where the F-fueling chain lives, is now watching to see whether Washington will move those assets, or
minutes, secondswhether the inertia of existing basing agreements and the physical constraints of tanker logistics will keep them exactly where they are at Prince Sultan,
minutes, secondskm from the Iranian coast, inside Iranian ballistic missile range. Iran has begun actively laying naval mines in the straight, a development intelligence
minutes, secondsofficials say could extend the effective blockade for weeks beyond any ceasefire. Thran still possesses between and %
minutes, secondsof its mine laying craft. It can deploy hundreds more. Even if a ceasefire were announced tomorrow, even if Aragchi picked up the phone and called Oman's
minutes, secondsforeign minister tonight, the physical clearance of those mines from the Strait of Hormuz could take weeks. The economic damage would continue. The oil markets
minutes, secondswould remain disrupted. The fertilizer shortage would continue. The food supply chain pressure would persist. And somewhere in a city we cannot name, in a location no satellite has publicly
minutes, secondidentified, the person who actually set the timeline for this war, who told WITO in that Tel Aviv briefing room that Iran can't be trusted, who has been
minutes, secondscoordinating Israeli strike packages with Sentcom for the past two weeks, who made the decision that June 's Operation Rising Lion was the proof of
minutes, secondsconcept, and February was the execution. is watching the refueling corridors over Saudi Arabia, watching the tanker tracking data and calculating
minutes, secondswhether five damaged KC s in a closed straight are a price that changes anything in Washington. They don't think
minutes, secondsit does. Not yet. The next hours will tell you whether they are right. Here is the binary. It is not complicated. It does not require a geopolitical PhD.
minutes, secondsEither the United States and Iran find a back channel. Not through Oman this time because RXG has said publicly he will not negotiate while under bombardment,
minutes, secondsbut through some other intermediary.
minutes, secondsPerhaps Qatar, perhaps Turkey, perhaps a private communication that no journalist will know about until it appears in a memoir years from now. And that back
minutes, secondchannel produces a temporary sessation of hostilities that allows the strait to begin reopening, insurance underwriters to return, oil tankers to begin moving
minutes, secondsagain, and global energy markets to exhale, or Iran's new supreme leader,
minutes, secondsMoshdaba Kamune, having pledged to avenge his father's death and keep the straight closed, continues the war of attrition, continues targeting KC s
minutes, secondsat Prince Sultan, continues hitting oil tankers, continues firing missiles at nine countries simultaneously, continues the horizontal escalation. until the
minutes, secondsbillion dollar a day math of this campaign combined with $gasoline and a congressional funding battle forces a political reckoning in Washington that
minutes, secondsno amount of F-stealth and no number of Tomahawk cruise missiles can prevent.
minutes, secondsDeal or no deal. The straight opens or the straight stays closed. The tankers fly safe missions or they get hit again on the ground in Saudi Arabia at a base
minutes, secondsthat America never officially admitted was the engine of this war. That is the choice and the clock is
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Scott Ritter: Trump Sends 2,500 Marines into Iran’s Kharg Island Death Trap, US Bases WIPED OUT
Danny Haiphong
Mar 15, 2026 #israel #Iran #trump
Scott Ritter is a former Major, Intelligence Officer, US Marine, and UN Weapons Inspector. Ritter breaks down Trump's Marine deployment and where it will lead as Iran seizes the initiative toward victory in the US-Israeli war against it.
Transcript
The Wall Street Journal is reporting that a a Marine expeditionary unit consisting usually I guess you're the
expert here. So I definitely want to ask you about this Marines will be sent to the Middle East. And that begs the
question, Scott, how is the war, now that it's two weeks in, how is the war going for the United States and for all
the aggressor parties right now uh given this escalation? And maybe you can talk about what this escalation really means.
Well, I mean, um, first of all,
a marine expeditionary unit is basically a a reinforced battalion. U, so you have a battalion of Marines that have
different other attachments put on um to give them greater capability intelligence- wise, logistics wise.
They're relatively self- sustaining for a limited period of time. They have an air component, so you have helicopters and fixed uh wing strike artillery. They
used to have tanks, but we don't have tanks anymore. Uh, but it's it's it's Marines that are capable of, you know, conducting expeditionary
operations ashore. um you know and and and in theory the the the you know marine uh expeditionary units
traditionally will um have been deployed uh in in around the world like carrier battle groups um just floating offshore
uh floating around the world ready to respond at a moment's notice to any emergencies that might uh occur. So, um,
you know, I don't know which MW has been, uh, has been, you know, given the,
um, the warning order, and I don't know where they're coming from. Are they already deployed? Are they, you know,
are they, are they, you know, training off the coast of Australia, or are they currently in the United States or Okinawa or wherever, you know, the MU
would be generated from um, and and need to embark, uh, and and and and travel. But their forte is assault from the sea.
minute, secondsUm and they tend to operate off of um you know amphibious assault ships um where you put several hundred marines on
minutes, secondsa single ship and then uh they either go from you know ship to shore using LCAS or landing craft or they uh they they go
minutes, secondsship to shore using helicopters. Um when General Burgerer, former come of the Marine Corps, became the comedant a
minutes, secondscouple years ago, um he did a review of the national security strategy and the national defense strategy and he's supposed to write comedant's guidance.
minutes, secondsAnd what he said is that he cannot in good faith uh say that the Marine Corps is capable of implementing the tasks that they've been given by the National
minutes, secondsCommand Authority. I mean, one of the reasons was that we are married to a legacy um amphibious assault concept that dates back to, you know,
minutes, secondsGeneral Leune, the the man who invented amphibious warfare um and the Second World War where we perfected the art. Um
minuteshe said that modern munitions and such area denial weapons uh make it impractical because if we close in on an
minutes, secondshostile shore in amphibious assault uh shipping u and they hit one of our uh
minutes, secondsships with a missile we lost Marines and that's it. That's the end of the game. Um we haven't changed our legacy.
minutes, secondsHe tried to in the Pacific, he tried to come up with a uh a new regiment regimental structure that um that that
minutes, secondsused smaller ships carrying up to marines to um you know make it harder to
minutes, secondsstop the entire uh assault by sinking one ship. Um we were looking at long range strike weapons etc. It'd be
minutes, secondsinteresting to see that that system by the way has been declared to be a failure. I don't know if they've disbanded those units, but uh basically
minutes, secondsthese this new structure was supposed to be confronting the Chinese in the South Chinese Sea. And um I think we've the
minutesMarine Corps has determined that this has not been a success. Um I don't know if we still have units configured that because actually those units would be
minutes, secondsvery um more realistically employable in a straight or Hermuz situation than bringing in a standard uh amphibious
minutes, secondsready group. Um, I just think this is fantasy and pie in the sky, though,
minutes, secondsbecause a MU has, uh, specific limitations. Uh, you know, it can't sustain itself forever. It has limited
minutes, secondscombat power. Um, and you know, let's say that you engage it. Um, how do you
minutes, secondsreinforce it? Okay, so you put them in and they they get they get engaged. Let's say you want to take Car Island.
minutes, secondsUh, so we achieved the beach head. Uh,
minutes, secondsit's just a battalion. It's not more than a battalion. There's only so much a battalion can do. Um, you know, so, you know, if you go three companies across,
minutes, secondsum, you know, now you've you've secured the beach head, but where's your follow on assault forces? You've got to take them from the troops you have. So, you
minutes, secondsgot to thin out this and assault forward. Um, what if the enemy puts up concerted resistance? What if they counterattack? Is there reinforcements
minutes, secondsthat come come in? Do we have a second Mew coming in? So now we're talking about a brigade, not a not a battalion. Um,
minutes, secondsthis is insanity. The size of Car Island, you know, we we it took us divisions during World War II to take that to take those islands. So the, you
minutes, secondsknow, this isn't going to be Granada where, you know, a marine expeditionary unit or at that time I think it was called a MAU, a marine amphibious unit
minutes, secondswas able to run around and rescue students and uh and and kill Cubans and uh and kill Grenadians. Um, you know,
minutes, secondsthis will be resisted by Iranian forces that have lived on the island. Uh,
minutes, secondsthey've dug into the island. U, they have their fire support identified. Um,
minutes, secondsand they're going to make sustainment of this force impossible. Once we land,
minutes, secondswe'll be shelled the entire time. Wave after wave after drones will be coming in. How much anti-air does the Marine Corps have for a MW? Not much. We have
minutes, secondssome handheld man pads. Um, but we have a limited amount of ammunition and when we burn through it all, the drones will
minutes, secondssteep come and this is not going to happen. There will not be a Marine leader who will say that's a mission we're willing to do. We know that the
minutes, secondsmilitary's already told Trump to pound sand. Take the ships through the the straits, naval escorts. And Navy went,
minutes, seconds"No, we're not doing that. Not gonna happen." Um, and we're not going to put boots on the ground. this is a
minutes, secondsa show force. Um because we don't have any capability to put boots on the ground. Uh so for the president to say,
minutes, seconds"Well, I may have to." This is just a a show of force, but it's not enough. The Marines are good, but they're not that
minutes, secondsgood. And they can't do um what the president wants with the forces and and it's very risky. Uh because if we go in
minuteswith um an amphibious assault ship and it gets hit by a missile, we could lose Marines plus the embarked sailors,
minutes, secondsthe who are part of the crew. You know,
minutes, secondswe could have men in the water. Um no president wants that. And for what?
minutes, secondsTo take an island that isn't going to open up the straight or moves anyways.
minutes, secondsUm but I I just think this is basically a propaganda thing.
minutes, secondssafety. I I don't I my guess is that this war will be over before those Marines are on station. Again, I don't know where they're coming from. So, if they're close, they could be on station,
minutes, secondsbut my guess is that Trump is desperately looking for an off-ramp, but in the meanwhile, he's going to be posturing because the whole Trump thing
minutes, secondsis peace through strength, and you have to be looking strike. So, he's going to continue to drop bombs on empty buildings and um and and and and allow
minutes, secondsPete Hagath to say psychopathic things and um and such, but he knows this war is lost. I mean, there's a general
minutes, secondsconsensus in Washington DC that there will be no regime change um and that the missiles will launch, keep being launched. We can't stop them. Um and
minutes, secondsthat if Iran wanted to, they could shut the straight hormuz and strangle the global economy. right now they you know if you're if you call and coordinate you
minutes, secondscan go through otherwise you get sunk there's nothing we can do to stop it but Iran is in the driver's seat right now they're the ones with all of the
minutes, secondsinitiatives uh we are reacting to them the whole concept of boots on the ground is a reaction to the reality of the
minutes, secondssituation that we're not winning and therefore we would have to bring in additional resources to achieve outcomes that can't be achieved right now that's
minutes, secondsthe definition of losing according to the Wall Street Journal it is going to be the Japan-based USS Tripoli that is going to be uh uh
minutes, secondsbringing in that uh marine expeditionary unit. So, I guess they're uh they're moving from Japan. Uh I don't know how long that will be
minutes, secondsout of Okinawa. It'll be Okinawa based Marines. Uh the ship might be the Tripoli might be u homeported in Japan,
minutes, secondbut they're probably going to take um the uh the Marine battalion that's um in
minutes, secondsuh in Okinawa. um that battalion is traditionally um trained in conventional
minutes, secondsum application, but because it's part of the Pacific, they may have some experience in doing the um the specialized tactics. Uh again, if you
minutes, secondscan uh to be honest, if you take the way I do it is I take my Marines uh to um you
minutes, secondsknow, land in um you know, a a port city um far away from the Persian Gulf. Um
minutes, secondsand then I would um assemble them and their resources um in the United Arab Emirates and I would run a um a short
minutes, secondstoshore amphibious assault. I wouldn't be bringing the tripollet anywhere near um the Iranian coast. I would have my marines uh doing you know an assault
minutes, secondsfrom the shore helicopter and small boat based. Uh if you go in with small boats um you can afford to lose one or two um
minutes, secondsyou know marines in the water hopefully we can rescue them. Uh you come in with helicopters and we should be able to project some power ashore. We should be
minutes, secondsable to achieve a beach head. Um maybe if we did it as a raid that is possible.
minutes, secondsWe're very good at raids. So, we'd go in there, uh, element of surprise, uh,
minutes, secondsextreme violence. Marines are very good at violence and aggression. Um, and you just assault through, blow up some things, blow up, uh, a couple buildings,
minutes, secondstake some prisoners, and then you withdraw. The raid is the only military operation where uh, you design
minutes, secondsretreating. And normally, we don't even consider retreat because retreat is is defeat. But a raid you have, you go in,
minutes, secondsyou do your mission, and then you withdraw. And so we could be looking at a marine raid on Car Island. And if they have this MW that's been configured for small boat operations,
minutes, secondsum, you know, that becomes more realistic. But then again, you have to ask yourself politically, is this worth it? Um, because there's a chance things
minutes, secondsgo very bad. The Iranians have been preparing for this. It's not like we're going to take them by surprise and we could be walking into a trap and next thing you know you have a company of
minutes, secondsMarines cut off on Kar Island. Um you know people need to start looking up Cotang Island. That's another uh place
minutes, secondsfrom the Marine Corps history. That's where we went in to rescue the Mayagu crew when they were um taken over by the Camir Rouge uh at the end in April I think of
minutes, secondsUm, we ended up doing a a helicopter assault on Cotang Island. Um, almost all the helicopters were shot down. Uh,
minutes, secondsMarines were in the water. Um, Marines were on shore split in two portions. Uh,
minutes, secondsthat it looked like they could get overrun. Um, you had to run constant air support missions in until we could finally get them out. And it was only through a miracle that we found enough
minuteshelicopters that hadn't been shot down to come in and get them off the island.
minutes, secondsAnd even as well, we left three Marines behind. a threeman Mgun crew uh didn't get on the last helicopter and
minutes, secondswere left behind. Marines don't ever leave anybody behind, but we left these three Marines behind and they were captured and executed by the Camir Rouge. Um a huge embarrassing moment for
minutes, secondsthe United States Marine Corps. Um we could end up, you know, Car Island could become the next Kotang Island. So we
minutes, secondspeople need to study their history and understand,
minutes, secondsyou know, what can and can't be done. I remember I when I was brought into uh the ad hoc planning sale put together by
minutes, secondsGeneral Gray. Um one of the plans that I promoted and was actively going for and there was a lot of support for was a
minutes, secondsraid a marine raid on the uh Azubai logistics facility. We're going to take a reinforced company of light light
minutes, secondsarmored vehicles and uh basically put them on the ground and have them run up the highway and shoot the hell out of this site, blow things up, kill everybody, and then then evacuate,
minutes, secondsleave. And uh everybody thought it was the sexiest plan ever, except a colonel who had flown helicopters during Desert
minutes, secondsOne, Colonel Ciphford. And uh he looked at it, he was very nice to me. I mean, I give him full credit for this, but he said, um, you know, there's so many
minutes, secondsthings that could go bad here. And if the Marines are, you know, in the, you know, in a firefight and they start
minutes, secondstaking casualties and, um, they can't be extracted, um, they can't be reinforced.
minutes, secondsUm, we lose this this Marine Company for what? For a propaganda exercise. Your raid isn't going to change the war. Your raid is designed to have people say,
minutes, seconds"Look what we can do." And we don't need to have anybody say, "Look what we can do." Um, if it doesn't change the war,
minutes, secondsif it doesn't win the war, we shouldn't be doing it. It doesn't influence the war. It shouldn't be a feel-good exercise. And hopefully, we have Colonel
minutes, secondsCiphertz today that will be saying the same thing about a Car Island operation.
minutes, secondsThis is not a war exercise. you are not going to seize Car Island with a MW and hold it um and be able to secure shipping because the Iranians will still
minutes, secondscontrol their coast and they'll just make life a living hell for the Marines on Car Island and um and and they will
minutes, secondscontinue to sink shipping that seeks to transit through the uh straight over Moose. So, this is a political exercise,
minutes, secondsa feel-good exercise, a propaganda exercise. it has no impact on the overall operation and there's a really
minutes, secondsgood chance that we go bad and we lose a lot of Marines. So, I'm hoping there's enough real Marine leadership that says,
minutes, secondsyou know, I don't need to win a Silver Star. I don't need to get a Purple Heart. I don't need a combat medal. Um what I need is to keep my Marines alive.
minutes, secondsU so that if we ever really need to use them for a war effort, um they're available. But who wants to write letters home just so you can say, "Yeah,
minutes, secondsI I I I uh I was I invaded Car Island." No one.
minutes, secondsBrilliant military strategist uh Pete Hegth Scott uh recently said that the straight of four moves is actually open
minutes, secondsso long as Iran does not shoot at any ships. They are just free to go. what Donald Trump said uh the day before that
minutes, secondsthat uh ships just need to be courageous uh and just go through the straight. Um uh talk about you said earlier that Iran
minutes, secondsmaybe we can get to the Iranian side now. Iran has the initiative. uh talk about what that looks like now in two weeks in and what you make of these
minutes, secondscomments, these genius comments by Pete Hgstath around the straight of Hormuz closure which is uh sending shock waves
minutes, secondsthrough the uh oil prices and the oil markets.
minutes, secondsI mean some things just speak for themselves. Um this is a secretary of war um who has tried to impress people. I mean I I
minuteslistened to him talk. is literally, you know, there there was a period of time when when,
minutes, secondsyou know, we used to be leaders. The Marine Corps trains leaders. That's what we did. That's what I went through when I went through a basic school and officer candidate school and I got into
minutes, secondsthe fleet Marine Force. Um, we weren't managers. We were leaders. We led. I mean, and leadership is a whole
minutes, secondsdifferent thing. You don't impress people with your words. You impress people with your actions. You lead by example. You become a tactical expert
minutes, secondsnot because you can articulate it, but because you can do it. Marines know a leader because a leader stands before. Marines say, "I'll follow you to hell."
minutes, secondsA manager comes forward and Marines are going, "Yeah, get the hell out of here. I'm not dealing with you." Uh, you know,
minutes, secondsMarines create leaders. I'm not saying they create that this is the best thing in the world for all of society. I'm just saying for combat application,
minutes, secondsthere's no replacement for true leadership, especially at the small unit level. Uh, I was trained in in that
minutes, secondschool and I think I did a pretty good job. Um, but the one thing you didn't do as a leader is get up there and
minutes, secondsthe troops. Uh, and you you you didn't have to sell them on anything. You just had to tell them this is your mission.
minutes, secondsLet's get it done.
minutes, secondsWhat happened after the Gulf War though is you know we went into a peacetime military transition back into a peace
minutes, secondstime military and um we needed to um you know have a peace dividend. The cold war was over. We were looking at the
minutes, secondsconsolidation of forces and instead of leading we were told to manage. I remember when this happened because um
minutes, secondsyou know we they the the Marine Corps bought into something called TQM, total quality management and we all of the
minutes, secondsyoung you know captains who won the Gulf War um got put into a room into a in a into a you know an auditorium and said
minutes, secondsyou are now managers and we went no we're not we're leaders. I mean we revolted. We literally revolted. He said, "No, we refuse to to play this game." And a lot of people ended up leaving the Marine Corps because of it.
minutes, secondsBecause we do leadership. We don't manage. Manage is what the Air Force does. Army wants to manage or you know
minutes, secondsyou manage this. But um we're not going to do that. Um but the Marine Corps transition and as a manager now you
minutes, secondsbecome a salesman. See leadership isn't about selling anything. I either inspire you or I don't. I either know what I'm
minutes, secondsdoing or I don't. When I stand in front of a team of inspectors and say, "Today we're going to go to the gates of hell to the presidential palace and we get
minutes, secondsout of the vehicles. Machine guns are going to be aimed at our face. RPGs aimed at our cars and they're going to be threatening to blow your arms off.
minutes, secondsWhat I need you to do is just relax because I'm in charge. Look at me. If I panic, you panic. But if I stay calm,
minutes, secondsyou stay calm. I have a plan. This is my plan. I'm going to implement the plan."
minutes, secondsAnd the inspectors all went, "Okay." and we went into the world's worst situations and things went to hell in the hand basket and I would get out of
minutes, secondsthe vehicle and be calm. That's leading by example. And my calmness led them to be calm. We stayed focused on our mission and we accomplished the mission.
minutes, secondsUm that's leadership. Um, but if I had to get out there while I'm doing this and sell them, what we're doing here is
minutes, secondsapplying psychological um, manipulatory uh, you know, tactics to get the enemy
minutes, secondsto overrespond and stimulate the hypothalamus of the the you'd be sitting there going, "What?" That's Pete Hicks
minutes, secondsright now. He's just throwing words out there. He is a guy that doesn't know how to lead. He's a guy that manages and is seeking to impress people with his
minutes, secondslanguage. He's a salesman up there selling something. And what he's selling is % garbage. Pure garbage. And um it shows because a leader is also honest.
minutes, secondsLook at the letter that Dwight Eisenhower wrote to prepare to give if D-Day went bad.
minutes, secondsLook at that letter. He didn't sit there and try and deflect and say, you know,
minutes, secondsthis that and the other. He said, "It's on me. I made the decision, you know,
minutes, secondsand the failure is all mine. Um, and you know, we are going to learn. We're going to come back, regroup, and we're going to move on and do the next thing. But,
minutes, secondsyou know, this has been a failure. My failure. Pete Hex doesn't have the courage to stand up there and go, "Yeah,
minutes, secondswe got it wrong." Um, you know, we made certain assumptions. Um, you know, and I I I acted on those assumptions and, uh,
minutes, secondswe were wrong. And so now what we're going to do is we're gonna have to hit the pause button and re-evaluate. We're going to be meeting with the president to uh to discuss options and I'll get back to you as soon as we have options.
minutes, secondsBut no, the ward isn't going the way we wanted it to go. Um we're not achieving the results that we thought we needed to achieve at this time. And um you know,
minutes, secondswe're going to we're going to have to make adjustment. That's honesty. And I think people would appreciate honesty instead of saying, "Well, we didn't
minutesexpect the the the the Iranians to be able to, you know, continue to fire their missiles, but we're in control.
minutes, seconds% degradation, bombs on target, we're killing. We're the most lethal force."
minutes, secondsThat's That's just that's just, you know, and people see right through it. And so here's you have that kind of man whose brain now is in the business of just selling crap.
minutes, secondsAnd what you get is that statement, the straight of Hormuz isn't closed. It's open. It's open because we say it's
minutes, secondsopen. It's open. It's only closed if the Iranians shoot at you. Well, no Sherlock. I mean, that's the definition of closing the straight horror moves.
minutes, secondsWhen the Iranians decide to close it by shooting at you, so it's not open. You haven't uh succeeded. He can't tell the
minutes, secondstruth, though. He's he's so impressed. I mean, this this notion that we're winning because we say we're winning,
minutes, secondsbut we haven't achieved any of the metrics of victory. We sank the Iranian Navy. Then why can't you open up the straight of Hormuz? Because the whole idea of sinking the Iranian Navy,
minutes, secondsaccording to Donald Trump, and he says it over and over, we sank all their ships. I don't know why we can't go through the straight of Hormuz because it was never about the ships, Donnie,
minutes, secondsbaby. Never about the ships. When you look at the Arif brigade, there's four battalions of them. Their job is to keep you from crossing through the straight
minutes, secondsor Hormuz. What have you done to I don't want to hear about you sinking um a boat that had nothing to do with anything. I want to know what you've done with the
minutes, secondsArif brigade. Where's the first battalion? Where are their modern cruise missiles? Where's the second battalion?
minutes, secondsWhere's the third battalion? We know where the fourth battalion is. They're on Car Island and they're going to kill you if you try and put Marines across the beach because they've been living on
minutes, secondsCarlagen for a long time and they've dug a lot of holes and stuff. You thought it was bad going into Euima, Mount Sarabachi. You thought it was tough going into Tarowa, try going to Car
minutes, secondsIsland and have your Marines assaulting across uh a terrain that the enemy controls and they'll be shooting you from the front, the back, the rear u
minutes, secondsunderground, rising up Hezbollah all over. What Hezbollah is doing to Israel and southern Lebanon, the Iranians will do to the Marines on Car Island. Marines
minutes, secondswill fight bravely and we may even prevail tactically because we're we're pretty damn good. But we'll lose a lot of Marines for what? So that Pete
minutes, secondsHaggath can say we have projected power of ashore. American boots are on the ground and I'm telling you that ground is now free. Those boots are touching
minutes, secondsfree Iranian soil. I mean that's the kind of crap he would say. Yeah. Um for for what? So no, we we don't we're
minutes, secondsnot in charge of anything. The Iranians are directing this war every step of the way. The Iranians got us to strip five
minutes, secondsTHAAD batteries from South Korea. The Iranians did that. They got us to strip Patriot batteries from the Pacific. The
minutes, secondsIranians did that. The Iranians have got us considering putting boots on the ground. None of these things were things that we thought about when we started
minutes, secondsthis war. We're only doing it because the Iranians are in charge. The Iranians are dictating the pace of operations and
minutes, secondwe're reacting. And now I get to John Boyd's udaloop. Um, you know, the udaloop was the fighter, you know,
minutes, secondsfighter fight. If you have two planes come in and John Boyd was, you know, using the udaloop, observe,
minutes, secondsorient, decide, and take the action. So he's looking, he observes, sees you,
minutes, secondslooks at your airplane, knows what kind of plane you have. He says, "I want to bleed off some speed." So he's going to pull in a client note. He has superior speed. You're going to pull him, but you
minutes, secondscan't match it. You're going to be slower. Now, he's going to keel over.
minutes, secondsYou're going to make a turn. He's going to come in behind you. He's going to shoot you down because you've been reacting to him the entire time. He anticipated your reactions, and he took
minutes, secondscontrol of the situation. The Iranians are executing a perfect udaloop on the United States. They have observed what we're doing. They've oriented on us.
minutes, secondsThey making decisions and they are acting. And they are generating this decision-making cycle quicker than we are. They are inside our decision-
minutes, secondsmaking cycle, which is the key to victory. So, we are reacting to them. We are doing things. They're in control.
minutesThey're they they're controlling the pace of operations. They're controlling targeting. They're controlling everything that we're doing. And um
minutes, secondswe're losing. There's no aspect of this war where we're winning. None whatsoever. Unless you want to say that uh we win by blowing up empty buildings.
minutes, secondsAnd uh that's what we're doing. We're blowing up empty or schools with children. Uh we're very good at blowing up schools with children, but we're not blowing up military facilities of note.
minutes, secondsUm the Iranians have been preparing for this. They're underground. They're dispersed. And it's also misleading.
minutes, secondsWe've been using a lot of standoff weapons. We're not penetrating into Iranian airspace. When we decide to penetrate into an Iranian airspace, we
minutes, secondswill come face to face with Iranian air defense. And that's a whole different level of fighting. I I see the mouth breathers in the MAGA world, you know,
minutes, secondsget very excited about the, you know,
minutes, secondsthe AA's a nice aircraft, but, you know, the last several generations, the A-has fought in Afghanistan and in uh
minutes, secondsIraq against insurgents. The last time the A-went up against a uh a modern military was in the Gulf War. And I'd
minutes, secondsinvite people to take a look at the battle damage suffered by the A-and include that uh you know A-s were being shot down on the last day of the
minutes, secondswar. We were losing pilots on the last day of the war because uh modern battlefields aren't friendly to low slow flying aircraft like the A-Uh out
minutes, secondswest when the A-was used in scut hunting. We didn't allow it to go below I think I forget what the cap was. Um,
minutes, secondsI was going to say it might be ft, but we had to keep it keep the A-very high to avoid getting shot
minutes, secondsdown by air defense. So, even though it's this thing where it goes burp and sexy and all that, the A-was way up here because it couldn't get down here,
minutes, secondsuh, or else it gets shot down. So,
minutes, secondsagain, the people that are talking about the A-don't have any experience with the A-They don't know anything about modern warfare. And um but again, the
minutes, secondsfact that we're talking about putting the A-into this situation is a reaction to the
minutes, secondsIranian actions. Um so, you know, we're not sitting there saying, "Let's insert the A-to shake things up." The
minutes, secondsIranians aren't expecting it. The Iranians are like, "N you haven't suppressed us, so we know you're going to come in with joint special operations forces, As, helicopters, and we're
minutes, secondsready." They posted their their their boys out there saying, "Please come come. We want to party with you." Um,
minutes, secondsthey're in charge. They're inside our udaloop. They're winning this war.
minutes, secondsEven the propaganda machine is having a lot of difficulty interpreting events. Uh, a lot of uh uh there, you know,
minutes, secondsthere was a fire, for example, on the USS Ford. Uh there was I think the USS Lincoln was approached by an Iranian
minutes, secondsvessel and they even admitted Sentcom did of missing of of of trying to shoot the vessel and then having to shoot missiles at the vessel because they
minutes, secondscouldn't get it with uh their uh with their gun on board. But then there's the uh the issue I want to know if you have any comments on the uh refueling tanker.
minutes, secondsI think believe there were two. one uh was was crashed and there were six American Americans who died uh from that
minutes, secondsand then another I think was able to land over Iraq. Talk about what this the
minutes, secondsexplanation for this was. It wasn't friendly fire and it wasn't hostile fire and uh the Iraqi resistance took credit
minutes, secondsfor the refueling taker um talk about what you've noticed about how the US Sentcom in particular is talking
minutes, secondsabout this war now given that it seems like every incident is explained as some kind of error rather than I said you
minutes, secondssaid earlier like maybe it'd be better to be honest and say maybe we're actually taking some hits here. Well,
minutes, secondsagain, I um I know you don't want to give the enemy false credit or you don't want to hype
minutes, secondsup the enemy, but I will say this. Um aerial refueling is a complex operation.
minutes, secondsWe're flying a lot of airplanes into um you know, into the Iranian theater and so the skies over western Iraq are
minutes, secondspacked with refuelers. We had this problem in Desert Storm, uh, where, you know, we're sending strike packages into to Iraq and they're going off and doing
minutes, secondstheir thing. Maybe they get, uh, some SAM missiles fired at them and they have to hit their afterburner sucking up more fuel. So, they're they're bingo fuel,
minutes, secondswhich means they can't make it home. Um,
minutes, secondsand now the tankers have to adjust to this. The the tankers are in a in a in a rotation over here waiting for the planes to come up and take fuel. But
minutes, secondsinstead now the taker has to make an adjustment and come in and and take a new position to to get the fuel in. And
minutes, secondssometimes Awax isn't up to the job. Awax is the controller. There's the one managing the battle space, the airspace.
minutes, secondsAnd uh Awax may have taken their eye off the ball, may have gotten complacent. Um or planes just did it without going to
minutes, secondsAwax because of an emergency. We don't know what was going on. But what I can say is that um we had so many near collisions of uh of refuelers during
minutes, secondsDesert Storm. Uh it's a real problem when you get that kind of tight airspace.
minutes, secondsKeeping uh aircraft from flying into one another is um is a big challenge. Uh I have no reason to believe this was
minutes, secondsanything other than two tankers in a very complicated uh airspace with a whole bunch of airplanes flying through.
minutes, secondsum they they got in each other's airspace and they collided. That's what I believe happened. Uh if there was a surface air, first of all, we're not
minutes, secondsgoing to put a tanker over an area where the surface air missiles. That just isn't going to happen. Uh we've cleared that ground. If you remember, there was
minutes, secondsan incident a little while ago where uh American forces landed on the in Anbar province. Um and uh and we're setting up
minutes, secondsa base of operations and uh an Iraqi uh unit responded investigating. There was a firefight and we killed a bunch of the
minutes, secondsIraqis um because we're not going to allow the insurgency to come in and set up underneath our
minutes, secondsrefueling um platform. So, we have troops on the ground in Iraq uh who are actively patrolling and um they aren't
minutes, secondsgoing to let anybody shoot down these tankers. You can't the tankers, you know, can't we lose the war if we can't
minutes, secondsrefuel the aircraft and we can't refuel the aircraft if our tankers are responding to surface air missile attacks. So, we have troops on the ground in western Iraq. I don't think
minutes, secondswe're supposed to know about that, but there was the media report, so I'm going to comment on that. um and their job is to
minutes, secondsactively patrol and keep um anybody from firing surfacetoair missiles against the refueler. So, I'm confident that there
minutes, secondswasn't a missile attack against our aircraft. What I'm confident is that we have a very complicated airspace that includes Israeli aircraft. Uh and that's
minutes, secondsa problem, too. I mean, who's refueling whom? Uh are we, you know, um do we have separate refueling areas for the Israelis or are they jumping in? Um, and
minutes, secondsagain, just having experienced this during the Gulf War, you know, you got the tanker up there and you get a schedule and so Awax will say, "Okay,
minutes, secondsyou know, flight of three uh, you know, F-s coming in, call sign, you know,
minutes, secondsuh, Juliet one, two, three, uh, you know, they're going to refuel in this order." So, they get they get stacked up. Juliet one comes in, takes on fuel,
minutes, secondsbreaks off. Three comes in all of a sudden, you know, you know, this is this is Charlie an F-Bingo, fuel, low
minutes, secondson fuel. Emergency refuel. Um, and they're like, "Okay, Charlie, you need to vector over." No, I can't make it.
minutes, secondsBring the tanker to me. And now the tanker's breaking off. F-s down there has to break off uh while the tanker moves in. But they didn't coordinate
minuteswith this other tanker that's making its big move in with a couple more airplanes behind it. And so planes are now moving towards each other. Awax is supposed to
minutes, secondsdeconlict and two planes were in the same airspace. That's always a bad thing.
minutes, secondsPeople need to research how we do refueling operations, especially in an environment like this where we're running um hundreds of combat sorties
minutes, secondsinto Iran on a daily basis. The skies over western Iraq are loaded with aircraft. And um you make a mistake, you pay with your pri you paid the price.
minutes, secondsAnd tragically, six Americans lost their lives because one KCran into another KC
minutes, secondsThat's my take.
minutes, secondsYeah. Well, yeah. And uh lost their lives for a war that uh that's another question. Is not going so well. Yeah.
minutes, secondsIt's not their It's not their fault.
minutes, secondsThey're doing their job. They've been given a mission of refueling aircraft.
minutes, secondsThat's their mission. I don't blame these people at all. I blame the president Hegathth Rubio and all the
minutes, secondsguys with stars on their shoulders. The guys with stars on their shoulders especially, they should have stopped this war. When you have Tulsi Gabard,
minutes, secondseverybody's like, "Where's Tulsi?
minutes, secondsWhere's Tulsi?" Well, Tulsi was actually doing their job. Ladies and gentlemen,
minutes, secondsTulsi actually put together a national intelligence community assessment delivered to the president before the decision to go to war was made where she basically said, "We will lose this war.
minutes, secondsWe will not achieve regime change and we will not get the military victory you're looking for. Don't do this. That's her
minutes, secondsjob." The president opted not to listen to her. But for all the people, where's Tolshi? She's a traitor. She's not doing
minutes, secondsher job. She did her damn job. She did her damn job where the generals who are supposed to tell the president, "Hey,
minutes, secondssir, the intelligence doesn't support this. We can't do this. I'm ordering you. I'd like that order in writing and
minutes, secondsI want it copied to the United States Congress because after you give me that order in writing, I'm going to resign and then I'm going to Congress to say that this is an unlawful order,
minutes, secondsyou know, and then you your career is over. My career doesn't matter. I serve the American people." um you know so the
minutes, secondssecond that you ask me to break the law or carry out you know conduct a war crime um I'm not going to do that and I'm not gonna you know sell my soul to
minutes, secondscontinue we need we don't have military people of that caliber anymore. There was one the the the director of the joint joint staff he was fired because
minutes, secondshe told the president we can't do this isn't going to happen.
minutes, secondsWe have a secretary of war who's a clear psychopathic war criminal. Um, I'm finishing up an article right now that
minutes, secondsmakes this case in black and white and he um should be removed from office and
minutes, secondsthen u the attorney general should be uh prosecuting him for violations of the war crimes act law that says that
minutes, secondsyou can't operate in violation of the Geneva Conventions and and he has and uh several of the general officers are in the kill chain have done the same thing.
minutes, secondsUm the the girls school serves as the um as the proof positive of this. But these are the people that are supposed to say
minutes, secondsno to stupid ideas. Um and they're they when you have the director of national intelligence get the consensus view of
minutes, secondsthe US intelligence community that um this war can't be won that none of the goals and objectives can be achieved
minutes, secondsthat we're we're going to lose. Um, you know, this is where military officers worth their their their weight and gold stand up and say, "No, Mr. President,
minutes, secondsno. Uh, we we're not going to do this.
minutes, secondsUm, it's unlawful. Um, you know, there's no reason to do this." You and yet they don't do that. We don't have people willing to, you know, make those calls.
minutes, secondsAnd uh that's why it's important to prosecute peak heads because people have to understand that there are consequences for failing to do your duty
minutes, secondsand failing to obey the constitution and failing to obey the law.
Danny Haiphong
Mar 15, 2026 #israel #Iran #trump
Scott Ritter is a former Major, Intelligence Officer, US Marine, and UN Weapons Inspector. Ritter breaks down Trump's Marine deployment and where it will lead as Iran seizes the initiative toward victory in the US-Israeli war against it.
Transcript
The Wall Street Journal is reporting that a a Marine expeditionary unit consisting usually I guess you're the
expert here. So I definitely want to ask you about this Marines will be sent to the Middle East. And that begs the
question, Scott, how is the war, now that it's two weeks in, how is the war going for the United States and for all
the aggressor parties right now uh given this escalation? And maybe you can talk about what this escalation really means.
Well, I mean, um, first of all,
a marine expeditionary unit is basically a a reinforced battalion. U, so you have a battalion of Marines that have
different other attachments put on um to give them greater capability intelligence- wise, logistics wise.
They're relatively self- sustaining for a limited period of time. They have an air component, so you have helicopters and fixed uh wing strike artillery. They
used to have tanks, but we don't have tanks anymore. Uh, but it's it's it's Marines that are capable of, you know, conducting expeditionary
operations ashore. um you know and and and in theory the the the you know marine uh expeditionary units
traditionally will um have been deployed uh in in around the world like carrier battle groups um just floating offshore
uh floating around the world ready to respond at a moment's notice to any emergencies that might uh occur. So, um,
you know, I don't know which MW has been, uh, has been, you know, given the,
um, the warning order, and I don't know where they're coming from. Are they already deployed? Are they, you know,
are they, are they, you know, training off the coast of Australia, or are they currently in the United States or Okinawa or wherever, you know, the MU
would be generated from um, and and need to embark, uh, and and and and travel. But their forte is assault from the sea.
minute, secondsUm and they tend to operate off of um you know amphibious assault ships um where you put several hundred marines on
minutes, secondsa single ship and then uh they either go from you know ship to shore using LCAS or landing craft or they uh they they go
minutes, secondsship to shore using helicopters. Um when General Burgerer, former come of the Marine Corps, became the comedant a
minutes, secondscouple years ago, um he did a review of the national security strategy and the national defense strategy and he's supposed to write comedant's guidance.
minutes, secondsAnd what he said is that he cannot in good faith uh say that the Marine Corps is capable of implementing the tasks that they've been given by the National
minutes, secondsCommand Authority. I mean, one of the reasons was that we are married to a legacy um amphibious assault concept that dates back to, you know,
minutes, secondsGeneral Leune, the the man who invented amphibious warfare um and the Second World War where we perfected the art. Um
minuteshe said that modern munitions and such area denial weapons uh make it impractical because if we close in on an
minutes, secondshostile shore in amphibious assault uh shipping u and they hit one of our uh
minutes, secondsships with a missile we lost Marines and that's it. That's the end of the game. Um we haven't changed our legacy.
minutes, secondsHe tried to in the Pacific, he tried to come up with a uh a new regiment regimental structure that um that that
minutes, secondsused smaller ships carrying up to marines to um you know make it harder to
minutes, secondsstop the entire uh assault by sinking one ship. Um we were looking at long range strike weapons etc. It'd be
minutes, secondsinteresting to see that that system by the way has been declared to be a failure. I don't know if they've disbanded those units, but uh basically
minutes, secondsthese this new structure was supposed to be confronting the Chinese in the South Chinese Sea. And um I think we've the
minutesMarine Corps has determined that this has not been a success. Um I don't know if we still have units configured that because actually those units would be
minutes, secondsvery um more realistically employable in a straight or Hermuz situation than bringing in a standard uh amphibious
minutes, secondsready group. Um, I just think this is fantasy and pie in the sky, though,
minutes, secondsbecause a MU has, uh, specific limitations. Uh, you know, it can't sustain itself forever. It has limited
minutes, secondscombat power. Um, and you know, let's say that you engage it. Um, how do you
minutes, secondsreinforce it? Okay, so you put them in and they they get they get engaged. Let's say you want to take Car Island.
minutes, secondsUh, so we achieved the beach head. Uh,
minutes, secondsit's just a battalion. It's not more than a battalion. There's only so much a battalion can do. Um, you know, so, you know, if you go three companies across,
minutes, secondsum, you know, now you've you've secured the beach head, but where's your follow on assault forces? You've got to take them from the troops you have. So, you
minutes, secondsgot to thin out this and assault forward. Um, what if the enemy puts up concerted resistance? What if they counterattack? Is there reinforcements
minutes, secondsthat come come in? Do we have a second Mew coming in? So now we're talking about a brigade, not a not a battalion. Um,
minutes, secondsthis is insanity. The size of Car Island, you know, we we it took us divisions during World War II to take that to take those islands. So the, you
minutes, secondsknow, this isn't going to be Granada where, you know, a marine expeditionary unit or at that time I think it was called a MAU, a marine amphibious unit
minutes, secondswas able to run around and rescue students and uh and and kill Cubans and uh and kill Grenadians. Um, you know,
minutes, secondsthis will be resisted by Iranian forces that have lived on the island. Uh,
minutes, secondsthey've dug into the island. U, they have their fire support identified. Um,
minutes, secondsand they're going to make sustainment of this force impossible. Once we land,
minutes, secondswe'll be shelled the entire time. Wave after wave after drones will be coming in. How much anti-air does the Marine Corps have for a MW? Not much. We have
minutes, secondssome handheld man pads. Um, but we have a limited amount of ammunition and when we burn through it all, the drones will
minutes, secondssteep come and this is not going to happen. There will not be a Marine leader who will say that's a mission we're willing to do. We know that the
minutes, secondsmilitary's already told Trump to pound sand. Take the ships through the the straits, naval escorts. And Navy went,
minutes, seconds"No, we're not doing that. Not gonna happen." Um, and we're not going to put boots on the ground. this is a
minutes, secondsa show force. Um because we don't have any capability to put boots on the ground. Uh so for the president to say,
minutes, seconds"Well, I may have to." This is just a a show of force, but it's not enough. The Marines are good, but they're not that
minutes, secondsgood. And they can't do um what the president wants with the forces and and it's very risky. Uh because if we go in
minuteswith um an amphibious assault ship and it gets hit by a missile, we could lose Marines plus the embarked sailors,
minutes, secondsthe who are part of the crew. You know,
minutes, secondswe could have men in the water. Um no president wants that. And for what?
minutes, secondsTo take an island that isn't going to open up the straight or moves anyways.
minutes, secondsUm but I I just think this is basically a propaganda thing.
minutes, secondssafety. I I don't I my guess is that this war will be over before those Marines are on station. Again, I don't know where they're coming from. So, if they're close, they could be on station,
minutes, secondsbut my guess is that Trump is desperately looking for an off-ramp, but in the meanwhile, he's going to be posturing because the whole Trump thing
minutes, secondsis peace through strength, and you have to be looking strike. So, he's going to continue to drop bombs on empty buildings and um and and and and allow
minutes, secondsPete Hagath to say psychopathic things and um and such, but he knows this war is lost. I mean, there's a general
minutes, secondsconsensus in Washington DC that there will be no regime change um and that the missiles will launch, keep being launched. We can't stop them. Um and
minutes, secondsthat if Iran wanted to, they could shut the straight hormuz and strangle the global economy. right now they you know if you're if you call and coordinate you
minutes, secondscan go through otherwise you get sunk there's nothing we can do to stop it but Iran is in the driver's seat right now they're the ones with all of the
minutes, secondsinitiatives uh we are reacting to them the whole concept of boots on the ground is a reaction to the reality of the
minutes, secondssituation that we're not winning and therefore we would have to bring in additional resources to achieve outcomes that can't be achieved right now that's
minutes, secondsthe definition of losing according to the Wall Street Journal it is going to be the Japan-based USS Tripoli that is going to be uh uh
minutes, secondsbringing in that uh marine expeditionary unit. So, I guess they're uh they're moving from Japan. Uh I don't know how long that will be
minutes, secondsout of Okinawa. It'll be Okinawa based Marines. Uh the ship might be the Tripoli might be u homeported in Japan,
minutes, secondbut they're probably going to take um the uh the Marine battalion that's um in
minutes, secondsuh in Okinawa. um that battalion is traditionally um trained in conventional
minutes, secondsum application, but because it's part of the Pacific, they may have some experience in doing the um the specialized tactics. Uh again, if you
minutes, secondscan uh to be honest, if you take the way I do it is I take my Marines uh to um you
minutes, secondsknow, land in um you know, a a port city um far away from the Persian Gulf. Um
minutes, secondsand then I would um assemble them and their resources um in the United Arab Emirates and I would run a um a short
minutes, secondstoshore amphibious assault. I wouldn't be bringing the tripollet anywhere near um the Iranian coast. I would have my marines uh doing you know an assault
minutes, secondsfrom the shore helicopter and small boat based. Uh if you go in with small boats um you can afford to lose one or two um
minutes, secondsyou know marines in the water hopefully we can rescue them. Uh you come in with helicopters and we should be able to project some power ashore. We should be
minutes, secondsable to achieve a beach head. Um maybe if we did it as a raid that is possible.
minutes, secondsWe're very good at raids. So, we'd go in there, uh, element of surprise, uh,
minutes, secondsextreme violence. Marines are very good at violence and aggression. Um, and you just assault through, blow up some things, blow up, uh, a couple buildings,
minutes, secondstake some prisoners, and then you withdraw. The raid is the only military operation where uh, you design
minutes, secondsretreating. And normally, we don't even consider retreat because retreat is is defeat. But a raid you have, you go in,
minutes, secondsyou do your mission, and then you withdraw. And so we could be looking at a marine raid on Car Island. And if they have this MW that's been configured for small boat operations,
minutes, secondsum, you know, that becomes more realistic. But then again, you have to ask yourself politically, is this worth it? Um, because there's a chance things
minutes, secondsgo very bad. The Iranians have been preparing for this. It's not like we're going to take them by surprise and we could be walking into a trap and next thing you know you have a company of
minutes, secondsMarines cut off on Kar Island. Um you know people need to start looking up Cotang Island. That's another uh place
minutes, secondsfrom the Marine Corps history. That's where we went in to rescue the Mayagu crew when they were um taken over by the Camir Rouge uh at the end in April I think of
minutes, secondsUm, we ended up doing a a helicopter assault on Cotang Island. Um, almost all the helicopters were shot down. Uh,
minutes, secondsMarines were in the water. Um, Marines were on shore split in two portions. Uh,
minutes, secondsthat it looked like they could get overrun. Um, you had to run constant air support missions in until we could finally get them out. And it was only through a miracle that we found enough
minuteshelicopters that hadn't been shot down to come in and get them off the island.
minutes, secondsAnd even as well, we left three Marines behind. a threeman Mgun crew uh didn't get on the last helicopter and
minutes, secondswere left behind. Marines don't ever leave anybody behind, but we left these three Marines behind and they were captured and executed by the Camir Rouge. Um a huge embarrassing moment for
minutes, secondsthe United States Marine Corps. Um we could end up, you know, Car Island could become the next Kotang Island. So we
minutes, secondspeople need to study their history and understand,
minutes, secondsyou know, what can and can't be done. I remember I when I was brought into uh the ad hoc planning sale put together by
minutes, secondsGeneral Gray. Um one of the plans that I promoted and was actively going for and there was a lot of support for was a
minutes, secondsraid a marine raid on the uh Azubai logistics facility. We're going to take a reinforced company of light light
minutes, secondsarmored vehicles and uh basically put them on the ground and have them run up the highway and shoot the hell out of this site, blow things up, kill everybody, and then then evacuate,
minutes, secondsleave. And uh everybody thought it was the sexiest plan ever, except a colonel who had flown helicopters during Desert
minutes, secondsOne, Colonel Ciphford. And uh he looked at it, he was very nice to me. I mean, I give him full credit for this, but he said, um, you know, there's so many
minutes, secondsthings that could go bad here. And if the Marines are, you know, in the, you know, in a firefight and they start
minutes, secondstaking casualties and, um, they can't be extracted, um, they can't be reinforced.
minutes, secondsUm, we lose this this Marine Company for what? For a propaganda exercise. Your raid isn't going to change the war. Your raid is designed to have people say,
minutes, seconds"Look what we can do." And we don't need to have anybody say, "Look what we can do." Um, if it doesn't change the war,
minutes, secondsif it doesn't win the war, we shouldn't be doing it. It doesn't influence the war. It shouldn't be a feel-good exercise. And hopefully, we have Colonel
minutes, secondsCiphertz today that will be saying the same thing about a Car Island operation.
minutes, secondsThis is not a war exercise. you are not going to seize Car Island with a MW and hold it um and be able to secure shipping because the Iranians will still
minutes, secondscontrol their coast and they'll just make life a living hell for the Marines on Car Island and um and and they will
minutes, secondscontinue to sink shipping that seeks to transit through the uh straight over Moose. So, this is a political exercise,
minutes, secondsa feel-good exercise, a propaganda exercise. it has no impact on the overall operation and there's a really
minutes, secondsgood chance that we go bad and we lose a lot of Marines. So, I'm hoping there's enough real Marine leadership that says,
minutes, secondsyou know, I don't need to win a Silver Star. I don't need to get a Purple Heart. I don't need a combat medal. Um what I need is to keep my Marines alive.
minutes, secondsU so that if we ever really need to use them for a war effort, um they're available. But who wants to write letters home just so you can say, "Yeah,
minutes, secondsI I I I uh I was I invaded Car Island." No one.
minutes, secondsBrilliant military strategist uh Pete Hegth Scott uh recently said that the straight of four moves is actually open
minutes, secondsso long as Iran does not shoot at any ships. They are just free to go. what Donald Trump said uh the day before that
minutes, secondsthat uh ships just need to be courageous uh and just go through the straight. Um uh talk about you said earlier that Iran
minutes, secondsmaybe we can get to the Iranian side now. Iran has the initiative. uh talk about what that looks like now in two weeks in and what you make of these
minutes, secondscomments, these genius comments by Pete Hgstath around the straight of Hormuz closure which is uh sending shock waves
minutes, secondsthrough the uh oil prices and the oil markets.
minutes, secondsI mean some things just speak for themselves. Um this is a secretary of war um who has tried to impress people. I mean I I
minuteslistened to him talk. is literally, you know, there there was a period of time when when,
minutes, secondsyou know, we used to be leaders. The Marine Corps trains leaders. That's what we did. That's what I went through when I went through a basic school and officer candidate school and I got into
minutes, secondsthe fleet Marine Force. Um, we weren't managers. We were leaders. We led. I mean, and leadership is a whole
minutes, secondsdifferent thing. You don't impress people with your words. You impress people with your actions. You lead by example. You become a tactical expert
minutes, secondsnot because you can articulate it, but because you can do it. Marines know a leader because a leader stands before. Marines say, "I'll follow you to hell."
minutes, secondsA manager comes forward and Marines are going, "Yeah, get the hell out of here. I'm not dealing with you." Uh, you know,
minutes, secondsMarines create leaders. I'm not saying they create that this is the best thing in the world for all of society. I'm just saying for combat application,
minutes, secondsthere's no replacement for true leadership, especially at the small unit level. Uh, I was trained in in that
minutes, secondschool and I think I did a pretty good job. Um, but the one thing you didn't do as a leader is get up there and
minutes, secondsthe troops. Uh, and you you you didn't have to sell them on anything. You just had to tell them this is your mission.
minutes, secondsLet's get it done.
minutes, secondsWhat happened after the Gulf War though is you know we went into a peacetime military transition back into a peace
minutes, secondstime military and um we needed to um you know have a peace dividend. The cold war was over. We were looking at the
minutes, secondsconsolidation of forces and instead of leading we were told to manage. I remember when this happened because um
minutes, secondsyou know we they the the Marine Corps bought into something called TQM, total quality management and we all of the
minutes, secondsyoung you know captains who won the Gulf War um got put into a room into a in a into a you know an auditorium and said
minutes, secondsyou are now managers and we went no we're not we're leaders. I mean we revolted. We literally revolted. He said, "No, we refuse to to play this game." And a lot of people ended up leaving the Marine Corps because of it.
minutes, secondsBecause we do leadership. We don't manage. Manage is what the Air Force does. Army wants to manage or you know
minutes, secondsyou manage this. But um we're not going to do that. Um but the Marine Corps transition and as a manager now you
minutes, secondsbecome a salesman. See leadership isn't about selling anything. I either inspire you or I don't. I either know what I'm
minutes, secondsdoing or I don't. When I stand in front of a team of inspectors and say, "Today we're going to go to the gates of hell to the presidential palace and we get
minutes, secondsout of the vehicles. Machine guns are going to be aimed at our face. RPGs aimed at our cars and they're going to be threatening to blow your arms off.
minutes, secondsWhat I need you to do is just relax because I'm in charge. Look at me. If I panic, you panic. But if I stay calm,
minutes, secondsyou stay calm. I have a plan. This is my plan. I'm going to implement the plan."
minutes, secondsAnd the inspectors all went, "Okay." and we went into the world's worst situations and things went to hell in the hand basket and I would get out of
minutes, secondsthe vehicle and be calm. That's leading by example. And my calmness led them to be calm. We stayed focused on our mission and we accomplished the mission.
minutes, secondsUm that's leadership. Um, but if I had to get out there while I'm doing this and sell them, what we're doing here is
minutes, secondsapplying psychological um, manipulatory uh, you know, tactics to get the enemy
minutes, secondsto overrespond and stimulate the hypothalamus of the the you'd be sitting there going, "What?" That's Pete Hicks
minutes, secondsright now. He's just throwing words out there. He is a guy that doesn't know how to lead. He's a guy that manages and is seeking to impress people with his
minutes, secondslanguage. He's a salesman up there selling something. And what he's selling is % garbage. Pure garbage. And um it shows because a leader is also honest.
minutes, secondsLook at the letter that Dwight Eisenhower wrote to prepare to give if D-Day went bad.
minutes, secondsLook at that letter. He didn't sit there and try and deflect and say, you know,
minutes, secondsthis that and the other. He said, "It's on me. I made the decision, you know,
minutes, secondsand the failure is all mine. Um, and you know, we are going to learn. We're going to come back, regroup, and we're going to move on and do the next thing. But,
minutes, secondsyou know, this has been a failure. My failure. Pete Hex doesn't have the courage to stand up there and go, "Yeah,
minutes, secondswe got it wrong." Um, you know, we made certain assumptions. Um, you know, and I I I acted on those assumptions and, uh,
minutes, secondswe were wrong. And so now what we're going to do is we're gonna have to hit the pause button and re-evaluate. We're going to be meeting with the president to uh to discuss options and I'll get back to you as soon as we have options.
minutes, secondsBut no, the ward isn't going the way we wanted it to go. Um we're not achieving the results that we thought we needed to achieve at this time. And um you know,
minutes, secondswe're going to we're going to have to make adjustment. That's honesty. And I think people would appreciate honesty instead of saying, "Well, we didn't
minutesexpect the the the the Iranians to be able to, you know, continue to fire their missiles, but we're in control.
minutes, seconds% degradation, bombs on target, we're killing. We're the most lethal force."
minutes, secondsThat's That's just that's just, you know, and people see right through it. And so here's you have that kind of man whose brain now is in the business of just selling crap.
minutes, secondsAnd what you get is that statement, the straight of Hormuz isn't closed. It's open. It's open because we say it's
minutes, secondsopen. It's open. It's only closed if the Iranians shoot at you. Well, no Sherlock. I mean, that's the definition of closing the straight horror moves.
minutes, secondsWhen the Iranians decide to close it by shooting at you, so it's not open. You haven't uh succeeded. He can't tell the
minutes, secondstruth, though. He's he's so impressed. I mean, this this notion that we're winning because we say we're winning,
minutes, secondsbut we haven't achieved any of the metrics of victory. We sank the Iranian Navy. Then why can't you open up the straight of Hormuz? Because the whole idea of sinking the Iranian Navy,
minutes, secondsaccording to Donald Trump, and he says it over and over, we sank all their ships. I don't know why we can't go through the straight of Hormuz because it was never about the ships, Donnie,
minutes, secondsbaby. Never about the ships. When you look at the Arif brigade, there's four battalions of them. Their job is to keep you from crossing through the straight
minutes, secondsor Hormuz. What have you done to I don't want to hear about you sinking um a boat that had nothing to do with anything. I want to know what you've done with the
minutes, secondsArif brigade. Where's the first battalion? Where are their modern cruise missiles? Where's the second battalion?
minutes, secondsWhere's the third battalion? We know where the fourth battalion is. They're on Car Island and they're going to kill you if you try and put Marines across the beach because they've been living on
minutes, secondsCarlagen for a long time and they've dug a lot of holes and stuff. You thought it was bad going into Euima, Mount Sarabachi. You thought it was tough going into Tarowa, try going to Car
minutes, secondsIsland and have your Marines assaulting across uh a terrain that the enemy controls and they'll be shooting you from the front, the back, the rear u
minutes, secondsunderground, rising up Hezbollah all over. What Hezbollah is doing to Israel and southern Lebanon, the Iranians will do to the Marines on Car Island. Marines
minutes, secondswill fight bravely and we may even prevail tactically because we're we're pretty damn good. But we'll lose a lot of Marines for what? So that Pete
minutes, secondsHaggath can say we have projected power of ashore. American boots are on the ground and I'm telling you that ground is now free. Those boots are touching
minutes, secondsfree Iranian soil. I mean that's the kind of crap he would say. Yeah. Um for for what? So no, we we don't we're
minutes, secondsnot in charge of anything. The Iranians are directing this war every step of the way. The Iranians got us to strip five
minutes, secondsTHAAD batteries from South Korea. The Iranians did that. They got us to strip Patriot batteries from the Pacific. The
minutes, secondsIranians did that. The Iranians have got us considering putting boots on the ground. None of these things were things that we thought about when we started
minutes, secondsthis war. We're only doing it because the Iranians are in charge. The Iranians are dictating the pace of operations and
minutes, secondwe're reacting. And now I get to John Boyd's udaloop. Um, you know, the udaloop was the fighter, you know,
minutes, secondsfighter fight. If you have two planes come in and John Boyd was, you know, using the udaloop, observe,
minutes, secondsorient, decide, and take the action. So he's looking, he observes, sees you,
minutes, secondslooks at your airplane, knows what kind of plane you have. He says, "I want to bleed off some speed." So he's going to pull in a client note. He has superior speed. You're going to pull him, but you
minutes, secondscan't match it. You're going to be slower. Now, he's going to keel over.
minutes, secondsYou're going to make a turn. He's going to come in behind you. He's going to shoot you down because you've been reacting to him the entire time. He anticipated your reactions, and he took
minutes, secondscontrol of the situation. The Iranians are executing a perfect udaloop on the United States. They have observed what we're doing. They've oriented on us.
minutes, secondsThey making decisions and they are acting. And they are generating this decision-making cycle quicker than we are. They are inside our decision-
minutes, secondsmaking cycle, which is the key to victory. So, we are reacting to them. We are doing things. They're in control.
minutesThey're they they're controlling the pace of operations. They're controlling targeting. They're controlling everything that we're doing. And um
minutes, secondswe're losing. There's no aspect of this war where we're winning. None whatsoever. Unless you want to say that uh we win by blowing up empty buildings.
minutes, secondsAnd uh that's what we're doing. We're blowing up empty or schools with children. Uh we're very good at blowing up schools with children, but we're not blowing up military facilities of note.
minutes, secondsUm the Iranians have been preparing for this. They're underground. They're dispersed. And it's also misleading.
minutes, secondsWe've been using a lot of standoff weapons. We're not penetrating into Iranian airspace. When we decide to penetrate into an Iranian airspace, we
minutes, secondswill come face to face with Iranian air defense. And that's a whole different level of fighting. I I see the mouth breathers in the MAGA world, you know,
minutes, secondsget very excited about the, you know,
minutes, secondsthe AA's a nice aircraft, but, you know, the last several generations, the A-has fought in Afghanistan and in uh
minutes, secondsIraq against insurgents. The last time the A-went up against a uh a modern military was in the Gulf War. And I'd
minutes, secondsinvite people to take a look at the battle damage suffered by the A-and include that uh you know A-s were being shot down on the last day of the
minutes, secondswar. We were losing pilots on the last day of the war because uh modern battlefields aren't friendly to low slow flying aircraft like the A-Uh out
minutes, secondswest when the A-was used in scut hunting. We didn't allow it to go below I think I forget what the cap was. Um,
minutes, secondsI was going to say it might be ft, but we had to keep it keep the A-very high to avoid getting shot
minutes, secondsdown by air defense. So, even though it's this thing where it goes burp and sexy and all that, the A-was way up here because it couldn't get down here,
minutes, secondsuh, or else it gets shot down. So,
minutes, secondsagain, the people that are talking about the A-don't have any experience with the A-They don't know anything about modern warfare. And um but again, the
minutes, secondsfact that we're talking about putting the A-into this situation is a reaction to the
minutes, secondsIranian actions. Um so, you know, we're not sitting there saying, "Let's insert the A-to shake things up." The
minutes, secondsIranians aren't expecting it. The Iranians are like, "N you haven't suppressed us, so we know you're going to come in with joint special operations forces, As, helicopters, and we're
minutes, secondsready." They posted their their their boys out there saying, "Please come come. We want to party with you." Um,
minutes, secondsthey're in charge. They're inside our udaloop. They're winning this war.
minutes, secondsEven the propaganda machine is having a lot of difficulty interpreting events. Uh, a lot of uh uh there, you know,
minutes, secondsthere was a fire, for example, on the USS Ford. Uh there was I think the USS Lincoln was approached by an Iranian
minutes, secondsvessel and they even admitted Sentcom did of missing of of of trying to shoot the vessel and then having to shoot missiles at the vessel because they
minutes, secondscouldn't get it with uh their uh with their gun on board. But then there's the uh the issue I want to know if you have any comments on the uh refueling tanker.
minutes, secondsI think believe there were two. one uh was was crashed and there were six American Americans who died uh from that
minutes, secondsand then another I think was able to land over Iraq. Talk about what this the
minutes, secondsexplanation for this was. It wasn't friendly fire and it wasn't hostile fire and uh the Iraqi resistance took credit
minutes, secondsfor the refueling taker um talk about what you've noticed about how the US Sentcom in particular is talking
minutes, secondsabout this war now given that it seems like every incident is explained as some kind of error rather than I said you
minutes, secondssaid earlier like maybe it'd be better to be honest and say maybe we're actually taking some hits here. Well,
minutes, secondsagain, I um I know you don't want to give the enemy false credit or you don't want to hype
minutes, secondsup the enemy, but I will say this. Um aerial refueling is a complex operation.
minutes, secondsWe're flying a lot of airplanes into um you know, into the Iranian theater and so the skies over western Iraq are
minutes, secondspacked with refuelers. We had this problem in Desert Storm, uh, where, you know, we're sending strike packages into to Iraq and they're going off and doing
minutes, secondstheir thing. Maybe they get, uh, some SAM missiles fired at them and they have to hit their afterburner sucking up more fuel. So, they're they're bingo fuel,
minutes, secondswhich means they can't make it home. Um,
minutes, secondsand now the tankers have to adjust to this. The the tankers are in a in a in a rotation over here waiting for the planes to come up and take fuel. But
minutes, secondsinstead now the taker has to make an adjustment and come in and and take a new position to to get the fuel in. And
minutes, secondssometimes Awax isn't up to the job. Awax is the controller. There's the one managing the battle space, the airspace.
minutes, secondsAnd uh Awax may have taken their eye off the ball, may have gotten complacent. Um or planes just did it without going to
minutes, secondsAwax because of an emergency. We don't know what was going on. But what I can say is that um we had so many near collisions of uh of refuelers during
minutes, secondsDesert Storm. Uh it's a real problem when you get that kind of tight airspace.
minutes, secondsKeeping uh aircraft from flying into one another is um is a big challenge. Uh I have no reason to believe this was
minutes, secondsanything other than two tankers in a very complicated uh airspace with a whole bunch of airplanes flying through.
minutes, secondsum they they got in each other's airspace and they collided. That's what I believe happened. Uh if there was a surface air, first of all, we're not
minutes, secondsgoing to put a tanker over an area where the surface air missiles. That just isn't going to happen. Uh we've cleared that ground. If you remember, there was
minutes, secondsan incident a little while ago where uh American forces landed on the in Anbar province. Um and uh and we're setting up
minutes, secondsa base of operations and uh an Iraqi uh unit responded investigating. There was a firefight and we killed a bunch of the
minutes, secondsIraqis um because we're not going to allow the insurgency to come in and set up underneath our
minutes, secondsrefueling um platform. So, we have troops on the ground in Iraq uh who are actively patrolling and um they aren't
minutes, secondsgoing to let anybody shoot down these tankers. You can't the tankers, you know, can't we lose the war if we can't
minutes, secondsrefuel the aircraft and we can't refuel the aircraft if our tankers are responding to surface air missile attacks. So, we have troops on the ground in western Iraq. I don't think
minutes, secondswe're supposed to know about that, but there was the media report, so I'm going to comment on that. um and their job is to
minutes, secondsactively patrol and keep um anybody from firing surfacetoair missiles against the refueler. So, I'm confident that there
minutes, secondswasn't a missile attack against our aircraft. What I'm confident is that we have a very complicated airspace that includes Israeli aircraft. Uh and that's
minutes, secondsa problem, too. I mean, who's refueling whom? Uh are we, you know, um do we have separate refueling areas for the Israelis or are they jumping in? Um, and
minutes, secondsagain, just having experienced this during the Gulf War, you know, you got the tanker up there and you get a schedule and so Awax will say, "Okay,
minutes, secondsyou know, flight of three uh, you know, F-s coming in, call sign, you know,
minutes, secondsuh, Juliet one, two, three, uh, you know, they're going to refuel in this order." So, they get they get stacked up. Juliet one comes in, takes on fuel,
minutes, secondsbreaks off. Three comes in all of a sudden, you know, you know, this is this is Charlie an F-Bingo, fuel, low
minutes, secondson fuel. Emergency refuel. Um, and they're like, "Okay, Charlie, you need to vector over." No, I can't make it.
minutes, secondsBring the tanker to me. And now the tanker's breaking off. F-s down there has to break off uh while the tanker moves in. But they didn't coordinate
minuteswith this other tanker that's making its big move in with a couple more airplanes behind it. And so planes are now moving towards each other. Awax is supposed to
minutes, secondsdeconlict and two planes were in the same airspace. That's always a bad thing.
minutes, secondsPeople need to research how we do refueling operations, especially in an environment like this where we're running um hundreds of combat sorties
minutes, secondsinto Iran on a daily basis. The skies over western Iraq are loaded with aircraft. And um you make a mistake, you pay with your pri you paid the price.
minutes, secondsAnd tragically, six Americans lost their lives because one KCran into another KC
minutes, secondsThat's my take.
minutes, secondsYeah. Well, yeah. And uh lost their lives for a war that uh that's another question. Is not going so well. Yeah.
minutes, secondsIt's not their It's not their fault.
minutes, secondsThey're doing their job. They've been given a mission of refueling aircraft.
minutes, secondsThat's their mission. I don't blame these people at all. I blame the president Hegathth Rubio and all the
minutes, secondsguys with stars on their shoulders. The guys with stars on their shoulders especially, they should have stopped this war. When you have Tulsi Gabard,
minutes, secondseverybody's like, "Where's Tulsi?
minutes, secondsWhere's Tulsi?" Well, Tulsi was actually doing their job. Ladies and gentlemen,
minutes, secondsTulsi actually put together a national intelligence community assessment delivered to the president before the decision to go to war was made where she basically said, "We will lose this war.
minutes, secondsWe will not achieve regime change and we will not get the military victory you're looking for. Don't do this. That's her
minutes, secondsjob." The president opted not to listen to her. But for all the people, where's Tolshi? She's a traitor. She's not doing
minutes, secondsher job. She did her damn job. She did her damn job where the generals who are supposed to tell the president, "Hey,
minutes, secondssir, the intelligence doesn't support this. We can't do this. I'm ordering you. I'd like that order in writing and
minutes, secondsI want it copied to the United States Congress because after you give me that order in writing, I'm going to resign and then I'm going to Congress to say that this is an unlawful order,
minutes, secondsyou know, and then you your career is over. My career doesn't matter. I serve the American people." um you know so the
minutes, secondssecond that you ask me to break the law or carry out you know conduct a war crime um I'm not going to do that and I'm not gonna you know sell my soul to
minutes, secondscontinue we need we don't have military people of that caliber anymore. There was one the the the director of the joint joint staff he was fired because
minutes, secondshe told the president we can't do this isn't going to happen.
minutes, secondsWe have a secretary of war who's a clear psychopathic war criminal. Um, I'm finishing up an article right now that
minutes, secondsmakes this case in black and white and he um should be removed from office and
minutes, secondsthen u the attorney general should be uh prosecuting him for violations of the war crimes act law that says that
minutes, secondsyou can't operate in violation of the Geneva Conventions and and he has and uh several of the general officers are in the kill chain have done the same thing.
minutes, secondsUm the the girls school serves as the um as the proof positive of this. But these are the people that are supposed to say
minutes, secondsno to stupid ideas. Um and they're they when you have the director of national intelligence get the consensus view of
minutes, secondsthe US intelligence community that um this war can't be won that none of the goals and objectives can be achieved
minutes, secondsthat we're we're going to lose. Um, you know, this is where military officers worth their their their weight and gold stand up and say, "No, Mr. President,
minutes, secondsno. Uh, we we're not going to do this.
minutes, secondsUm, it's unlawful. Um, you know, there's no reason to do this." You and yet they don't do that. We don't have people willing to, you know, make those calls.
minutes, secondsAnd uh that's why it's important to prosecute peak heads because people have to understand that there are consequences for failing to do your duty
minutes, secondsand failing to obey the constitution and failing to obey the law.
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- Site Admin
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Re: Part 2 Anti-Anti-Nazi Barbarian Hordes are Knocking Down
by admin » Mon Mar 16, 2026 6:46 pm
Trump freaks out after Netanyahu begs for ceasefire; offer new unbelievable deal - OPTM
OPTM
10 hours ago
Transcript
Friend, if you are just waking up or tuning in from around the world, let me tell you exactly what is happening right now in these hours. Because the
secondssituation on the ground has shifted so dramatically in the past hours that we are witnessing something many analysts never thought they would see in
secondstheir lifetime. The Islamic Republic of Iran has unleashed waves and waves of consecutive strikes against occupied Palestine that began intensifying
secondsyesterday afternoon and have continued relentlessly through the night into early today.
secondsFew hours. Iran has also launched multiple missiles targeting Israel.
secondsThere is no risk for Israel as Iran has once again opened fire after a brutal hours of sustained joint strikes.
secondsIn fact, Iranian missiles hit Nef Vienna in Israel. electricity in Israel and where Iran has attacked.
secondsAnd what we are seeing is nothing short of the complete unraveling of the Israeli military doctrine that has supposedly guaranteed the security of
secondsthe entity for decades. According to reports coming out of Al Jazzer and confirmed by Iranian news agencies,
minute, secondsincluding Press TV and the Tehran Times,
minute, secondsthe th wave of what the IRGC has designated as Operation True Promise
minute, secondshas targeted multiple cities simultaneously with a coordination that suggests months, if not years of
minute, secondspreparation. Tel Aviv is burning in places that the international media will not show you. Ashdad has taken direct
minute, secondshits to its port infrastructure. ISAT is facing unprecedented barges from both Iran and coordinated Lebanese resistance
minute, secondsforces. And Hifa, oh friend, Hifa is experiencing the kind of bombardment that the northern entity has not seen
minute, secondssince the war. Except this time, it is not just rockets. It is precision ballistic missiles that are overwhelming what remains of the air defense systems.
minute, secondsThe most significant development that the mainstream western press is trying desperately to downplay is the fact that Israeli interceptor missiles are running
minutes, secondsout. They are depleted. They are gone in many critical sectors. And when you see videos emerging on social media platforms of missiles slamming into
minutes, secondsbuildings without being intercepted, you are witnessing the direct consequence of a two-week campaign that exhausted the expensive American supplied interceptors
minutes, secondswhile Iran deliberately conserved its strike capabilities for exactly this moment. Reports from Semaphore, which the Israeli government initially denied
minutes, secondsbut then walked back, confirm that Israel informed the United States that it is critically low on ballistic
minutes, secondsmissile interceptors. And a US official quoted in those reports essentially admitted that this was expected and anticipated, which tells you everything
minutes, secondsyou need to know about how Washington views Tel Aviv as a useful but ultimately expendable asset when the
minutes, secondscalculus shifts. Now, here is where the story takes an even more dramatic turn,
minutes, secondsand I need you to really pay attention because this is the part that exposes the sheer panic inside the bunkers where the Israeli leadership has fled.
minutes, secondsBenjamin Netanyahu, who has spent his entire political career projecting an image of strength and security, is reportedly in hiding at an undisclosed
minutes, secondslocation where he is being treated for wounds sustained during an earlier Iranian ballistic missile strike that landed far closer to his position than
minutes, secondsanyone in his inner circle wants to admit. sources with direct knowledge of the situation. And I am drawing here from multiple regional news agencies
minutes, secondsthat have cultivated sources inside the Israeli military establishment indicate that Netanyahu has been begging through back channels for an immediate
minutes, secondsceasefire, pleading with anyone who will listen, including reaching out to mediators in the region who want nothing to do with him after his years of arrogance to stop the Iranian onslaught.
minutes, secondsBut here is the thing that Netanyahu apparently never understood about the Iranian character. Thrron has flatly rejected any discussion of a ceasefire and they have done so publicly,
minutes, secondsemphatically, and with a historical justification that is difficult to argue against. The Iranians remember the
minutes, secondsso-called -day war of June when they agreed to a ceasefire under international pressure only to watch the
minutes, secondsUnited States and Israel use that pause to reposition their forces and resume attacks with renewed intensity. The Revolutionary Guards have stated in no
minutes, secondsuncertain terms that this time there will be no ceasefire until their objectives are achieved. And those objectives have shifted from retaliation
minutes, secondsto ensuring that Israel never ever dares to attack Iranian soil again. The new supreme leader Ayatollah Seyed Mohaba
minutes, secondsKam has consolidated power with remarkable speed and the message coming out of Thran is consistent.
minutes, secondsThis war will end on Iranian terms, not on American terms and certainly not on Israeli terms. Before I take you deeper
minutes, secondsinto the strategy that Iran has unleashed and the complete failure of American intelligence to anticipate what is happening right now, I need to ask
minutes, secondssomething important from you. If you have been watching corporate media coverage of this conflict, you know they are not telling you the full story. They
minutes, secondsare not showing you the destruction and they are certainly not explaining why Iran is winning this war of attrition.
minutes, secondsThat is why independent journalism like this depends on people like you who want the truth. Please take a moment right now to hit that like button and more
minutes, secondsimportantly share this video with someone who needs to understand what is really happening in West Asia. Drop a comment, just a simple dot if you want
minutes, secondsto help break the algorithm that silences voices critical of Western policy. And if you have not already subscribed, click that button to join
minutes, secondsthis community of people who refuse to accept the propaganda being fed to the masses. Your support is literally the
minutes, secondsonly thing keeping honest journalism alive right now. Let me walk you through what is actually happening on the ground because the picture emerging from
minutes, secondsIsraeli cities is one of chaos and complete defensive failure. The Iron Dome, that supposedly impenetrable
minutes, secondsshield that Israel has spent decades marketing as a technological miracle, is being exposed for what it has always been, an expensive system designed to
minutes, secondsintercept unguided rockets fired from Gaza, not a system capable of defending against saturation barges of advanced Iranian ballistic missiles equipped with
minutes, secondscluster munitions. When the Times of Israel reported that Israel is running critically low on interceptors, what
minutes, secondsthey did not emphasize enough is that this shortage is not just about numbers.
minutes, secondsIt is about the complete inability to defend multiple cities simultaneously.
minutes, secondsWhen Iran launches from different directions with different types of missiles that confuse the radar systems in Holan, a suburb of Tel Aviv, vehicles
minutes, secondsare burning in the streets because shrapnel from intercepted missiles falls like rain, causing as much damage as the missiles themselves. In the Schella
minutes, secondsregion, in Lachish, in Samaria, areas that have not seen this level of attack in decades, families are huddled in
minutes, secondsshelters that were never designed for prolonged stays. Running out of food,
minutes, secondsrunning out of water, running out of hope, and bleed them, they are. The port of Ashdod, which handles a significant percentage of Israel's imported goods,
minutes, secondshas been hit repeatedly with fires burning out of control because the firefighting services cannot reach the affected areas while missiles are still
minutes, secondsfalling. Isot, that southern resort city that Israel loves to portray as a peaceful escape, has become a ghost town
minutes, secondsas Iranian missiles have targeted military installations and port facilities. But it is Hifa that tells the most disturbing story for Israeli
minutes, secondsplanners. Hifa is not just a city. It is the heart of Israel's northern economy, home to the country's largest port,
minutes, secondscritical oil refineries, and industrial facilities that the Israeli economy cannot function without. And for the past hours, Hezbollah has been
minutes, secondspounding Hifa and its surroundings with a ferocity that suggests they have been saving their best rockets for exactly this moment. The Times of India reported
minutes, secondsthat Hezbollah launched over rockets in a single barrage targeting the bait lead base, the Glo facility near Tel
minutes, secondsAviv, which houses Mossad and military intelligence units, and the Atllet base near Hifa. But that was days ago, and
minutes, secondsthe pace has only accelerated since then with Hezbollah announcing separate attacks in just the dawn hours alone,
minutes, secondstargeting Israeli troop concentrations. the Kiryat Shmona settlement, Matula,
minutes, secondsand multiple military positions along the border. What the Israeli military completely miscalculated was the willingness and capability of Hezbollah
minutes, secondsto enter this fight at full strength when the US and Israel launched their unprovoked war against Iran on February
minutes, secondsth, killing then Supreme Leader Ali Kam and over Iranians in the initial strikes. They apparently assumed
minutes, secondsthat Hezbollah would limit itself to symbolic responses. Instead, Hezbollah opened a northern front that has stretched the Israeli military to its
minutes, secondsbreaking point. The Lebanese resistance movement has been firing rockets and missiles at northern Israeli settlements and military bases with a precision that
minutes, secondsindicates Iranian guidance systems and targeting data. They have struck the Einim base. They have hit Israeli armored vehicles near the Kiam detention
minutes, secondscenter with guided missiles. They have targeted gatherings of Israeli forces with rocket bargages that leave no time
minutes, secondsfor troops to reach shelters. The Marin air operations control base, which serves as the brain of Israeli air operations in the north, has reportedly suffered damage to its radar systems,
minutes, secondswhich would explain why Israeli interceptions in the north have been even less effective than in the center.
minutes, secondsAnd here is the thing that the Israeli public is only beginning to understand.
minutes, secondTheir military cannot fight a two-front war against determined enemies who are willing to absorb casualties and continue fighting. The Israeli doctrine
minutes, secondshas always been based on the assumption that they could defeat any enemy quickly through superior technology and air power. But Hezbollah has spent nearly two decades building tunnel networks,
minutes, secondsstockpiling rockets, and training fighters who know that they will likely die but fight anyway because they believe in something larger than
minutes, secondsthemselves. When Anidolu agency reported that Hezbollah carried out attacks since dawn on Saturday alone, they were
minutes, secondsdocumenting a pace of operations that the Israeli military simply cannot sustain a defense against. Every rocket
minutes, secondsthat falls on Kiraat Shimona, every missile that hits Matula, every guided weapon that destroys an armored vehicle is another message to the Israeli
minutes, secondspopulation. Your government started this war and your government cannot protect you. Now, I need to take you deeper into
minutes, secondsthe Iranian mindset because if you do not understand why Thrron is rejecting every ceasefire proposal, you will miss the most important strategic dynamic of
minutes, secondsthis entire conflict. The Iranians have a long memory, and they remember June with a clarity that Western
minutes, secondsanalysts apparently lack. During the so-called -day war, when US and Israeli forces attacked Iranian
minutes, secondspositions and Iranianbacked groups across the region, Iran agreed to a ceasefire mediated by international
minutes, secondsparties who promised that the aggression would stop and that diplomacy would resume. And what happened? No sooner had
minutes, secondsIran halted its retaliatory strikes than the US and Israel used that pause to resupply their forces, reposition their
minutes, secondsassets, and prepare for the next round of attacks. The current Supreme Leader's father, Ayatollah Ali Kam, reportedly
minutes, secondsfelt personally betrayed by that experience, and he instilled in his son and in the entire Revolutionary Guard command structure a fundamental
minutes, secondprinciple. never trust the word of the Americans or the Israelis because they treat ceasefires as tactical pauses
minutes, secondsrather than diplomatic commitments. But here is the problem for Trump. His just for fun strikes have not achieved their objectives. Car Island, which handles
minutes, secondsmost of Iran's oil exports, was hit. But Iranian engineers have reportedly restored some operations already, and the real impact has been to provoke Iran
minutes, secondsinto targeting American allies in the Gulf. The UAE, which the Iranians accuse of allowing US forces to launch strikes from bases near Dubai and Rasal Kaima,
minutes, secondshas suddenly found itself in the crosshairs. Dubai's Palm Island was rocked by explosions. Fuja port has been
minutes, secondshit by drone and missile debris, and the entire Gulf region is now effectively a war zone. The Formula races in Bahrain
minutes, secondsand Saudi Arabia have been cancelled because it is no longer safe to hold international events in countries that host American bases. The Straight of
minutesHormuz through which about % of global oil passes is effectively closed and Trump is now begging countries like
minutes, secondsJapan, South Korea, France and Britain to send warships to secure the waterway and they are all running for the hills.
minutes, secondsJapan's policy chief said sending warships carries high risk and requires great caution. France has denied it will
minutes, secondssend ships at all. China is calling for an immediate halt to hostilities without committing to anything. The United
minutes, secondsKingdom is discussing options without making promises. In other words, Trump's coalition of the willing is turning into
minutes, secondsa coalition of the unwilling. and the United States is left exposed trying to fight a war that no one else wants any part of. Let me help you understand the
minutes, secondsstrategic architecture of what Iran is doing. Because this is not random violence. This is a carefully calibrated
minutes, secondscampaign designed to achieve specific political objectives through military means. The Iranian doctrine developed over decades of facing technologically
minutes, secondssuperior enemies is built on the concept of holy defense and asymmetric warfare.
minutes, secondsIran knows it cannot match American air power or Israeli technology in a conventional force onforce battle. So
minutes, secondsinstead of trying to do that, they have built a network of capabilities designed to impose unsustainable costs on their enemies over time. The first element of this strategy is horizontal escalation.
minutes, secondsRather than confining the conflict to Iranian territory, Thran has opened multiple fronts across the region.
minutes, secondsAmerican bases in the UAE, in Bahrain,
minutes, secondsin Qatar, in Kuwait have all been targeted. In Kuwait, two drones hit the Ahmmed Aljab air base, injuring three
minutes, secondssoldiers, and the international airport's radar was damaged. In Qatar,
minutes, secondsfour ballistic missiles and several drones were intercepted over Doha. In Saudi Arabia, waves of drones have
minutes, secondstargeted the eastern regions and the Shea oil field with six ballistic missiles intercepted over AlcarCH. Every
minutes, secondsAmerican base, every Gulf allies infrastructure, every symbol of US presence in the region becomes a target,
minutes, secondsforcing Washington to defend everywhere while Iran attacks selectively. The second element is economic warfare. By
minutes, secondsthreatening the strait of Hormuz and actually striking oil infrastructure,
minutes, secondsIran has sent global oil prices spiking which hurts the American economy, the European economy and especially the
minutes, secondseconomies of US allies in Asia who depend on Gulf oil. The Indian government has already issued statements about petrol and LPG supplies, urging
minutes, secondscitizens not to panic by while admitting that the situation is serious. Iraq's oil production has plunged % because they cannot export through the Gulf.
minutes, secondsThis economic pressure creates political pressure on Washington from allies who do not want their economies destroyed by an American war they never asked for.
minutes, secondsThe third element, and this is the most important one, is the exploitation of American domestic politics. The American
minutes, secondspublic does not want another war in West Asia. Polls show only % of Americans support war with Iran. Every day this
minutes, secondsconflict continues. Every day, American bases are hit. Every day, American casualties mount. The political pressure
minutes, secondson Trump increases. And Trump, for all his bluster, has no plan B. He launched this war thinking it would be a quick
minutes, secondsvictory, a Venezuela style operation where the regime collapses after a few strikes. Instead, he finds himself in a
minutes, secondsquagmire with no exit strategy facing a unified Iranian population, a capable Iranian military, and a network of
minutes, secondsregional allies who are hitting American assets with impunity. The shifting timelines tell the story. First, Trump said the war would last four to weeks.
minutes, secondsNow, he says it will continue as long as it takes, which is Washington speak for we have no idea what we are doing.
minutes, secondsFriend, I have been covering this region for many years, and I have never seen anything quite like what is unfolding right now. The confidence, the
minutes, secondsarrogance, the sheer stupidity of launching an unprovoked war against a nation of million people with a
minutes, secondssophisticated military doctrine, a unified population, and a historical memory measured in millennia rather than decades. It defies comprehension.
minutes, secondsBut here we are watching the consequences unfold in real time. I want to hear from you in the comments. Where
minutes, secondsare you watching from? What is your local media telling you about this conflict? Are you seeing the same gaps in coverage, the same emissions, the
minutes, secondssame propaganda that I am seeing? Drop your thoughts below. Share this video with someone who needs to understand
minutes, secondswhat is really happening. And if you have not already, please subscribe and hit that notification bell so you do not miss the updates that are coming as this
minutes, secondstory continues to develop. The truth is not always comfortable and it is certainly not always popular, but in times like these, it is the only thing that matters. Stay safe, stay informed,
minutes, secondsand stay
OPTM
10 hours ago
Transcript
Friend, if you are just waking up or tuning in from around the world, let me tell you exactly what is happening right now in these hours. Because the
secondssituation on the ground has shifted so dramatically in the past hours that we are witnessing something many analysts never thought they would see in
secondstheir lifetime. The Islamic Republic of Iran has unleashed waves and waves of consecutive strikes against occupied Palestine that began intensifying
secondsyesterday afternoon and have continued relentlessly through the night into early today.
secondsFew hours. Iran has also launched multiple missiles targeting Israel.
secondsThere is no risk for Israel as Iran has once again opened fire after a brutal hours of sustained joint strikes.
secondsIn fact, Iranian missiles hit Nef Vienna in Israel. electricity in Israel and where Iran has attacked.
secondsAnd what we are seeing is nothing short of the complete unraveling of the Israeli military doctrine that has supposedly guaranteed the security of
secondsthe entity for decades. According to reports coming out of Al Jazzer and confirmed by Iranian news agencies,
minute, secondsincluding Press TV and the Tehran Times,
minute, secondsthe th wave of what the IRGC has designated as Operation True Promise
minute, secondshas targeted multiple cities simultaneously with a coordination that suggests months, if not years of
minute, secondspreparation. Tel Aviv is burning in places that the international media will not show you. Ashdad has taken direct
minute, secondshits to its port infrastructure. ISAT is facing unprecedented barges from both Iran and coordinated Lebanese resistance
minute, secondsforces. And Hifa, oh friend, Hifa is experiencing the kind of bombardment that the northern entity has not seen
minute, secondssince the war. Except this time, it is not just rockets. It is precision ballistic missiles that are overwhelming what remains of the air defense systems.
minute, secondsThe most significant development that the mainstream western press is trying desperately to downplay is the fact that Israeli interceptor missiles are running
minutes, secondsout. They are depleted. They are gone in many critical sectors. And when you see videos emerging on social media platforms of missiles slamming into
minutes, secondsbuildings without being intercepted, you are witnessing the direct consequence of a two-week campaign that exhausted the expensive American supplied interceptors
minutes, secondswhile Iran deliberately conserved its strike capabilities for exactly this moment. Reports from Semaphore, which the Israeli government initially denied
minutes, secondsbut then walked back, confirm that Israel informed the United States that it is critically low on ballistic
minutes, secondsmissile interceptors. And a US official quoted in those reports essentially admitted that this was expected and anticipated, which tells you everything
minutes, secondsyou need to know about how Washington views Tel Aviv as a useful but ultimately expendable asset when the
minutes, secondscalculus shifts. Now, here is where the story takes an even more dramatic turn,
minutes, secondsand I need you to really pay attention because this is the part that exposes the sheer panic inside the bunkers where the Israeli leadership has fled.
minutes, secondsBenjamin Netanyahu, who has spent his entire political career projecting an image of strength and security, is reportedly in hiding at an undisclosed
minutes, secondslocation where he is being treated for wounds sustained during an earlier Iranian ballistic missile strike that landed far closer to his position than
minutes, secondsanyone in his inner circle wants to admit. sources with direct knowledge of the situation. And I am drawing here from multiple regional news agencies
minutes, secondsthat have cultivated sources inside the Israeli military establishment indicate that Netanyahu has been begging through back channels for an immediate
minutes, secondsceasefire, pleading with anyone who will listen, including reaching out to mediators in the region who want nothing to do with him after his years of arrogance to stop the Iranian onslaught.
minutes, secondsBut here is the thing that Netanyahu apparently never understood about the Iranian character. Thrron has flatly rejected any discussion of a ceasefire and they have done so publicly,
minutes, secondsemphatically, and with a historical justification that is difficult to argue against. The Iranians remember the
minutes, secondsso-called -day war of June when they agreed to a ceasefire under international pressure only to watch the
minutes, secondsUnited States and Israel use that pause to reposition their forces and resume attacks with renewed intensity. The Revolutionary Guards have stated in no
minutes, secondsuncertain terms that this time there will be no ceasefire until their objectives are achieved. And those objectives have shifted from retaliation
minutes, secondsto ensuring that Israel never ever dares to attack Iranian soil again. The new supreme leader Ayatollah Seyed Mohaba
minutes, secondsKam has consolidated power with remarkable speed and the message coming out of Thran is consistent.
minutes, secondsThis war will end on Iranian terms, not on American terms and certainly not on Israeli terms. Before I take you deeper
minutes, secondsinto the strategy that Iran has unleashed and the complete failure of American intelligence to anticipate what is happening right now, I need to ask
minutes, secondssomething important from you. If you have been watching corporate media coverage of this conflict, you know they are not telling you the full story. They
minutes, secondsare not showing you the destruction and they are certainly not explaining why Iran is winning this war of attrition.
minutes, secondsThat is why independent journalism like this depends on people like you who want the truth. Please take a moment right now to hit that like button and more
minutes, secondsimportantly share this video with someone who needs to understand what is really happening in West Asia. Drop a comment, just a simple dot if you want
minutes, secondsto help break the algorithm that silences voices critical of Western policy. And if you have not already subscribed, click that button to join
minutes, secondsthis community of people who refuse to accept the propaganda being fed to the masses. Your support is literally the
minutes, secondsonly thing keeping honest journalism alive right now. Let me walk you through what is actually happening on the ground because the picture emerging from
minutes, secondsIsraeli cities is one of chaos and complete defensive failure. The Iron Dome, that supposedly impenetrable
minutes, secondsshield that Israel has spent decades marketing as a technological miracle, is being exposed for what it has always been, an expensive system designed to
minutes, secondsintercept unguided rockets fired from Gaza, not a system capable of defending against saturation barges of advanced Iranian ballistic missiles equipped with
minutes, secondscluster munitions. When the Times of Israel reported that Israel is running critically low on interceptors, what
minutes, secondsthey did not emphasize enough is that this shortage is not just about numbers.
minutes, secondsIt is about the complete inability to defend multiple cities simultaneously.
minutes, secondsWhen Iran launches from different directions with different types of missiles that confuse the radar systems in Holan, a suburb of Tel Aviv, vehicles
minutes, secondsare burning in the streets because shrapnel from intercepted missiles falls like rain, causing as much damage as the missiles themselves. In the Schella
minutes, secondsregion, in Lachish, in Samaria, areas that have not seen this level of attack in decades, families are huddled in
minutes, secondsshelters that were never designed for prolonged stays. Running out of food,
minutes, secondsrunning out of water, running out of hope, and bleed them, they are. The port of Ashdod, which handles a significant percentage of Israel's imported goods,
minutes, secondshas been hit repeatedly with fires burning out of control because the firefighting services cannot reach the affected areas while missiles are still
minutes, secondsfalling. Isot, that southern resort city that Israel loves to portray as a peaceful escape, has become a ghost town
minutes, secondsas Iranian missiles have targeted military installations and port facilities. But it is Hifa that tells the most disturbing story for Israeli
minutes, secondsplanners. Hifa is not just a city. It is the heart of Israel's northern economy, home to the country's largest port,
minutes, secondscritical oil refineries, and industrial facilities that the Israeli economy cannot function without. And for the past hours, Hezbollah has been
minutes, secondspounding Hifa and its surroundings with a ferocity that suggests they have been saving their best rockets for exactly this moment. The Times of India reported
minutes, secondsthat Hezbollah launched over rockets in a single barrage targeting the bait lead base, the Glo facility near Tel
minutes, secondsAviv, which houses Mossad and military intelligence units, and the Atllet base near Hifa. But that was days ago, and
minutes, secondsthe pace has only accelerated since then with Hezbollah announcing separate attacks in just the dawn hours alone,
minutes, secondstargeting Israeli troop concentrations. the Kiryat Shmona settlement, Matula,
minutes, secondsand multiple military positions along the border. What the Israeli military completely miscalculated was the willingness and capability of Hezbollah
minutes, secondsto enter this fight at full strength when the US and Israel launched their unprovoked war against Iran on February
minutes, secondsth, killing then Supreme Leader Ali Kam and over Iranians in the initial strikes. They apparently assumed
minutes, secondsthat Hezbollah would limit itself to symbolic responses. Instead, Hezbollah opened a northern front that has stretched the Israeli military to its
minutes, secondsbreaking point. The Lebanese resistance movement has been firing rockets and missiles at northern Israeli settlements and military bases with a precision that
minutes, secondsindicates Iranian guidance systems and targeting data. They have struck the Einim base. They have hit Israeli armored vehicles near the Kiam detention
minutes, secondscenter with guided missiles. They have targeted gatherings of Israeli forces with rocket bargages that leave no time
minutes, secondsfor troops to reach shelters. The Marin air operations control base, which serves as the brain of Israeli air operations in the north, has reportedly suffered damage to its radar systems,
minutes, secondswhich would explain why Israeli interceptions in the north have been even less effective than in the center.
minutes, secondsAnd here is the thing that the Israeli public is only beginning to understand.
minutes, secondTheir military cannot fight a two-front war against determined enemies who are willing to absorb casualties and continue fighting. The Israeli doctrine
minutes, secondshas always been based on the assumption that they could defeat any enemy quickly through superior technology and air power. But Hezbollah has spent nearly two decades building tunnel networks,
minutes, secondsstockpiling rockets, and training fighters who know that they will likely die but fight anyway because they believe in something larger than
minutes, secondsthemselves. When Anidolu agency reported that Hezbollah carried out attacks since dawn on Saturday alone, they were
minutes, secondsdocumenting a pace of operations that the Israeli military simply cannot sustain a defense against. Every rocket
minutes, secondsthat falls on Kiraat Shimona, every missile that hits Matula, every guided weapon that destroys an armored vehicle is another message to the Israeli
minutes, secondspopulation. Your government started this war and your government cannot protect you. Now, I need to take you deeper into
minutes, secondsthe Iranian mindset because if you do not understand why Thrron is rejecting every ceasefire proposal, you will miss the most important strategic dynamic of
minutes, secondsthis entire conflict. The Iranians have a long memory, and they remember June with a clarity that Western
minutes, secondsanalysts apparently lack. During the so-called -day war, when US and Israeli forces attacked Iranian
minutes, secondspositions and Iranianbacked groups across the region, Iran agreed to a ceasefire mediated by international
minutes, secondsparties who promised that the aggression would stop and that diplomacy would resume. And what happened? No sooner had
minutes, secondsIran halted its retaliatory strikes than the US and Israel used that pause to resupply their forces, reposition their
minutes, secondsassets, and prepare for the next round of attacks. The current Supreme Leader's father, Ayatollah Ali Kam, reportedly
minutes, secondsfelt personally betrayed by that experience, and he instilled in his son and in the entire Revolutionary Guard command structure a fundamental
minutes, secondprinciple. never trust the word of the Americans or the Israelis because they treat ceasefires as tactical pauses
minutes, secondsrather than diplomatic commitments. But here is the problem for Trump. His just for fun strikes have not achieved their objectives. Car Island, which handles
minutes, secondsmost of Iran's oil exports, was hit. But Iranian engineers have reportedly restored some operations already, and the real impact has been to provoke Iran
minutes, secondsinto targeting American allies in the Gulf. The UAE, which the Iranians accuse of allowing US forces to launch strikes from bases near Dubai and Rasal Kaima,
minutes, secondshas suddenly found itself in the crosshairs. Dubai's Palm Island was rocked by explosions. Fuja port has been
minutes, secondshit by drone and missile debris, and the entire Gulf region is now effectively a war zone. The Formula races in Bahrain
minutes, secondsand Saudi Arabia have been cancelled because it is no longer safe to hold international events in countries that host American bases. The Straight of
minutesHormuz through which about % of global oil passes is effectively closed and Trump is now begging countries like
minutes, secondsJapan, South Korea, France and Britain to send warships to secure the waterway and they are all running for the hills.
minutes, secondsJapan's policy chief said sending warships carries high risk and requires great caution. France has denied it will
minutes, secondssend ships at all. China is calling for an immediate halt to hostilities without committing to anything. The United
minutes, secondsKingdom is discussing options without making promises. In other words, Trump's coalition of the willing is turning into
minutes, secondsa coalition of the unwilling. and the United States is left exposed trying to fight a war that no one else wants any part of. Let me help you understand the
minutes, secondsstrategic architecture of what Iran is doing. Because this is not random violence. This is a carefully calibrated
minutes, secondscampaign designed to achieve specific political objectives through military means. The Iranian doctrine developed over decades of facing technologically
minutes, secondssuperior enemies is built on the concept of holy defense and asymmetric warfare.
minutes, secondsIran knows it cannot match American air power or Israeli technology in a conventional force onforce battle. So
minutes, secondsinstead of trying to do that, they have built a network of capabilities designed to impose unsustainable costs on their enemies over time. The first element of this strategy is horizontal escalation.
minutes, secondsRather than confining the conflict to Iranian territory, Thran has opened multiple fronts across the region.
minutes, secondsAmerican bases in the UAE, in Bahrain,
minutes, secondsin Qatar, in Kuwait have all been targeted. In Kuwait, two drones hit the Ahmmed Aljab air base, injuring three
minutes, secondssoldiers, and the international airport's radar was damaged. In Qatar,
minutes, secondsfour ballistic missiles and several drones were intercepted over Doha. In Saudi Arabia, waves of drones have
minutes, secondstargeted the eastern regions and the Shea oil field with six ballistic missiles intercepted over AlcarCH. Every
minutes, secondsAmerican base, every Gulf allies infrastructure, every symbol of US presence in the region becomes a target,
minutes, secondsforcing Washington to defend everywhere while Iran attacks selectively. The second element is economic warfare. By
minutes, secondsthreatening the strait of Hormuz and actually striking oil infrastructure,
minutes, secondsIran has sent global oil prices spiking which hurts the American economy, the European economy and especially the
minutes, secondseconomies of US allies in Asia who depend on Gulf oil. The Indian government has already issued statements about petrol and LPG supplies, urging
minutes, secondscitizens not to panic by while admitting that the situation is serious. Iraq's oil production has plunged % because they cannot export through the Gulf.
minutes, secondsThis economic pressure creates political pressure on Washington from allies who do not want their economies destroyed by an American war they never asked for.
minutes, secondsThe third element, and this is the most important one, is the exploitation of American domestic politics. The American
minutes, secondspublic does not want another war in West Asia. Polls show only % of Americans support war with Iran. Every day this
minutes, secondsconflict continues. Every day, American bases are hit. Every day, American casualties mount. The political pressure
minutes, secondson Trump increases. And Trump, for all his bluster, has no plan B. He launched this war thinking it would be a quick
minutes, secondsvictory, a Venezuela style operation where the regime collapses after a few strikes. Instead, he finds himself in a
minutes, secondsquagmire with no exit strategy facing a unified Iranian population, a capable Iranian military, and a network of
minutes, secondsregional allies who are hitting American assets with impunity. The shifting timelines tell the story. First, Trump said the war would last four to weeks.
minutes, secondsNow, he says it will continue as long as it takes, which is Washington speak for we have no idea what we are doing.
minutes, secondsFriend, I have been covering this region for many years, and I have never seen anything quite like what is unfolding right now. The confidence, the
minutes, secondsarrogance, the sheer stupidity of launching an unprovoked war against a nation of million people with a
minutes, secondssophisticated military doctrine, a unified population, and a historical memory measured in millennia rather than decades. It defies comprehension.
minutes, secondsBut here we are watching the consequences unfold in real time. I want to hear from you in the comments. Where
minutes, secondsare you watching from? What is your local media telling you about this conflict? Are you seeing the same gaps in coverage, the same emissions, the
minutes, secondssame propaganda that I am seeing? Drop your thoughts below. Share this video with someone who needs to understand
minutes, secondswhat is really happening. And if you have not already, please subscribe and hit that notification bell so you do not miss the updates that are coming as this
minutes, secondstory continues to develop. The truth is not always comfortable and it is certainly not always popular, but in times like these, it is the only thing that matters. Stay safe, stay informed,
minutes, secondsand stay
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Re: Part 2 Anti-Anti-Nazi Barbarian Hordes are Knocking Down
by admin » Mon Mar 16, 2026 8:37 pm
Iran’s National Security chief Larijani assassinated; Trump faces big rebellion | Janta Ka Reporter
Janta Ka Reporter
Mar 17, 2026
Iran has confirmed the deaths of its National Security Council head Ali Larijani and Basij commander Gholamreza Soleimani. But US President Donald Trump faced the biggest setback of his second term today when his counter terrorism chief Joe Kent resigned in protest against his decision to launch military strikes against Iran. Rifat Jawaid explains the significance of both these massive developments
Transcript
Two huge developments and this could shape the future of the ongoing conflict in Iran. The settler colony has claimed
to have killed Iran's National Security Council chief Ali Larijani and besieged militia commander Hulam Raza Sulmani.
Iran has now confirmed the death of both Larijani and Sulmani, a top member of the Trump administration, then resigned
today in protest against the illegal invasion of Iran. This would be the focus of my video tonight. Plenty to
unpack here and I'm already late for my video tonight. So, sorry for that, but that's because it's my daughter Zabin's
birthday. Happy birthday to my little angel. Anyway, so please stay tuned.
Israeli terrorists have claimed to have killed Ali Larijani and Sulmani both.
The Islamic Republic has confirmed the deaths of Larijani and Sulmani.
Larijani's death would be a huge blow to Iran, but it will also result in a dramatic shift in Iran's approach to its
minutenational security. I will explain how in a bit. But Larijani kind of saw this coming and he wasn't overly concerned
minute, secondsabout risks to his safety. Only a few days ago, he was bravely walking on the streets of Thran while taking part in
minute, secondsthe Kutz day rally. It was quite extraordinary to see him and other members of the Iranian leadership to forget about their safety and engage
minute, secondswith members of the public. Larijani's decision to walk on the streets of Thran, even amidst indiscriminate bombings, was so inspiring for average
minute, secondsIranians, that the black jacket that he wore that day became one of the most sought after piece of clothing for Iranians. Larijani's social media
minute, secondsaccount has just confirmed that he has returned to his creator. The social media post read and I quote, "In the
minute, secondsname of Allah, the most gracious, the most merciful, dear, and proud people of Iran to the Muslim nations and the free
minute, secondspeople of the world, a servant of God has returned to God. Indeed, a servant of Allah has joined his Lord as a martyr." End quote.
minutes, secondsWhen you see Larijani's last social media post today, you can understand just how fearless these Iranians are
minutes, secondsabout death. He wrote on Twitter, and I quote, "On the occasion of the funeral ceremony for the valiant martyrs of the Islamic Republic of Iran's Navy, their
minutes, secondsmemory will forever remain in the heart of the Iranian nation. And these martyrdoms will strengthen the foundation of the Islamic Republic's
minutes, secondsarmy for years to come within the structure of the armed forces. I beseech the Almighty God for the highest ranks
minutes, secondsfor these dear martrs. End quote. As I said, it's a massive loss for Iran.
minutes, secondsLarijani was someone who has seen the Iran Iraq conflict and responsible for shaping the security apparatus of his
minutes, secondscountry. But his passing can also mean that his successor would be a lot more hawkish in his approach towards the US
minutes, secondsand the settler colony because they have seen the reality of their illegal aggression. So if Israeli terrorists thought it was a great idea to
minutes, secondsassassinate Larijani then good luck to them. Larijani at least believed in the importance of diplomacy despite being
minutes, secondsthe security chief. Rest assured that his successor won't. So the more American and Israeli terrorists kill the members of the Iranian leadership team,
minutes, secondsthe more they are busy creating a new Iran which may not like to believe in diplomacy at all. Also, I wouldn't be
minutes, secondssurprised if Iran completely takes a new approach towards its nuclear ambition now since the country now knows what
minutes, secondsit's been made to face for no fault of its own. Even members of the Donald Trump administration are now coming out
minutes, secondsin the open to register their protest against the illegal invasion of Iran.
minutes, secondsTrump's homeland security chief Tulsi Gabbad had already said that Iran was not pursuing nuclear weapons. Today,
minutes, secondsAmerica's counterterrorism chief counterterrorism chief Joe Kent resigned from the Trump administration saying
minutes, secondsthat his conscience doesn't allow him to continue with his country's illegal invasion of Iran. He wrote on Twitter
minutes, secondsand I quote, "After much reflection, I have decided to resign from my position as director of the National Counterterrorism Center effective today.
minutes, secondsI cannot in good conscience support the ongoing war in Iran. Iran posed no imminent threat to our nation and it is
minutes, secondsclear this is very important and it is clear that we started this war due to pressure from Israel and its powerful
minutes, secondsAmerican lobby. It has been an honor serving under Porters and Tulsi Gabard and leading the professionals at NCTC.
minutes, secondsMay God bless America. End quote. His statement added and I quote, I support the values and the foreign policies that
minutes, secondyou campaigned. He's addressing Donald Trump on in which you
minutes, secondsenacted in your first term until June of You understood that the wars in the Middle East were a trap that robbed
minutes, secondsAmerica of the precious lives of our patriots and depleted the wealth and prosperity of our nation. In your first
minutes, secondsadministration, you understood better than any modern president how to decisively apply military power without getting us drawn into neverending wars.
minutes, secondsYou demonstrated this by killing Kasamsulmani and by defeating ISIS. Early in this administration,
minutes, secondshighranking Israeli officials and influential members of the American media deployed a misinformation campaign
minutes, secondsthat wholly undermined your America first platform and swed pro-war sentiments to encourage a war with Iran.
minutes, secondsThis echo chamber was used to deceive you into believing that Iran posed an imminent threat to the United States and
minutes, secondsthat should you strike now, there was a clear path to a swift victory. This was a lie and is the same tactic the Israeli
minutes, secondsused to draw us into the disastrous Iraq war that cost our nation the lives of thousands of our best men and women. We
minutes, secondscannot make this mistake again. As a veteran who deployed to combat times,
minutes, secondsand as a gold star husband who lost my beloved wife Shannon in a war manufactured by Israel, I cannot support
minutes, secondssending the next generation off to fight and die in a war that serves no benefit to the American people, nor justifies
minutes, secondsthe cost of American lives. I pray that you will reflect upon what we are doing in Iran and who we are doing it for. The
minutes, secondstime for bold action is now. You can reverse course and chart a new path for our nation or you can allow us to slip
minutes, secondsfurther towards decline and chaos. You hold the cards. End quote.
minutes, secondsEssentially what Kent is saying is that US government is being run by the Israeli terrorists. That's exactly what I have been saying all along.
minutes, secondsUS is an Israeli colony and who is responsible? none other than this deranged occupant of the White House
minutes, secondscalled Donald Trump. In Joe Kent had told Tucker Carlson that war with Iran would be bloody. Let me just ask you one last question cuz he, you know,
minutes, secondshe called it years ago. Um, you referred to what a war with Iran would do to the United States, and I I don't
minutes, secondsknow that a lot of people in this country fully understand what Iran is as a nation state. It's not Afghanistan.
minutes, secondsWhat do you think the immediate and then longer term effects of a war with Iran would be on the United States
minutes, secondsimmediately? It would be very bloody. I I have no doubt that we could probably defeat some of their air defense and go in there and have another shock and awe
minutes, secondscampaign. But again, like we saw how the shock and awe campaign in Iraq really didn't actually work in the long run. Uh so I have no doubt that we'd have some immediate results that people would cheer about here in the United States.
minutes, secondsBut Iran, Persia has always been an empire. It's been around longer than any of the other players in the modern Middle East right now. And they are not
minutes, secondsgoing anywhere. And right now, Iran has a lot of internal problem. They have a lot of internal strife with the Ayatollah. And that that government that's only been in power since
minutes, secondsBut again, if we start conducting strikes in Iran, everyone in Iran will rally around their leader and they will become even more revolutionary. And then
minutes, secondswe will have Iranian proxies throughout the entire region that will be conducting attacks just like we had uh in Jordan. And really in the long term,
minutes, secondsTucker, the axis that has been built uh really since Putin invaded Russia and we decided that since Putin invaded Ukraine and we decided we were going to throw this massive sanctions package at them,
minutes, secondsChina has come in as a major player and we are deeply compromised by China. They control a lot of our economy. They control uh global manufacturing. They're
minutes, secondsdeeply embedded in in Wall Street and they've also made deals with the Iranians. They want access to Iranian pro. Uh not to mention the fact that
minutes, secondsBiden killed off US energy independence and now he's going after LNG and the world's biggest LNG exporters are Iran,
minutes, secondsRussia and Qatar. So this axis would become very powerful if we get deeply involved and deeply entangled with Iran.
minutes, secondsWe are do we are playing right into China's hands because China would like nothing more than for us to be uh committing our military industrial base
minutes, secondsto a war in Eastern Europe in Ukraine and then to be committing our conventional military power, our blood and our treasure back in the Middle
minutes, secondsEast. That will make the Pacific, our actual border, extremely vulnerable to Chinese aggression. Or China will simply
minutes, secondsjust watch us bleed out economically as we bleed out on the battlefield on these couple different theaters. It's absolute insanity. It's opening up Pandora's box.
minutes, secondsAnd again, for what gain to the American people,
minutes, secondsI I mean, I think that's the most reasonable, common sensebased, factual assessment I've seen of this from anyone.
minutes, secondsBut how did Trump react? Like a typical loser, he said Kent wasn't worthy of his role.
minutes, secondsMr. President, your director of national counterterrorism, Joe Kent, he just resigned today. He said he can't support your conflict with Iran. What's your
minutes, secondsreaction to that? And did you Well, I read his statement. I always thought he was a nice guy, but I always thought he was weak on security. Very
minutes, secondsweak on security. Uh I didn't know him well, but I thought he seemed like a pretty nice guy. Uh but when I read a
minutes, secondsstatement, I realized that it's a good thing that he's out because he said that Iran was not a threat. Iran was a
minutes, secondsthreat. Every country realized what a threat Iran was. The question is whether or not they wanted to do something about it. And many people, many of the
minutes, secondsgreatest military scholars are saying for years that president should have taken out Iran because they wanted a nuclear weapon. They were uh if we
minutes, secondsdidn't do the attack or if I'll go a step further, if I didn't terminate the Iran nuclear deal given to us, one of
minutes, secondsthe worst deals ever made by Barack Hussein Obama. Remember when they sent Boeing s over there loaded with cash?
minutes, secondsSo why did this deranged occupant of the White House appoint him for this hugely important position? Clearly his
minutes, secondsderangement is costing his country and the world and he continues to remain in a state of denial. More and more Europeans are now deserting him. Today,
minutes, secondsFrench President Emanuel Macron openly contradicted Trump's claims, stating that his country would never take part in opening the state of Almuz.
minutes, secondsWe are not party to the conflict and therefore France will never take part in operations to open or liberate the straight of in the current
minutes, secondscontext. On the other hand, we are convinced that once the situation has calmed down and I deliberately use this term broadly. Once the situation has
minutes, secondscalmed down, that is to say, once the main bombing has ceased, we are ready along with other nations to assume responsibility for the escort system.
minutes, secondsBut it is all political, technical and obviously with all the actors of maritime transport, with the insurers and operational work that we must build.
minutes, secondsWe have begun exchanges with India, with several other European partners or partners in the region.
minutes, secondsThen came this German foreign minister said that his country was pursuing talks with Iran. He said that if the US was
minutes, secondsunable to open the state of Hormuz, then how on earth Trump expected Europeans to do this job?
minutes, secondstarget.
minutes, secondsLook, these bloodthirsty maniacs are determined to cause chaos across the world by their reckless imperialistic
minutes, secondsactions. Even though it's clear that they simply cannot achieve any of their so-called objectives in Iran, they
minutes, secondscontinue to cause carnage. The more they indulge in such depraved actions, the more they are making Iranians resolve
minutes, secondsstronger to retaliate with more ferocity. Trust me, if you thought Iran caused chaos across the Middle East in
minutes, secondsthe last days, wait until you see what the new leadership does now. Trump and his war criminal Israeli friends
minutes, secondswould then be asked if it was all worth it. That's it for me. Thank you very much for your support of this platform and our journalism. If you haven't
minutes, secondssubscribed to my channel, please do so because that's one of the many ways you can support independent journalism. God bless you all.
******************
Janta Ka Reporter
Mar 17, 2026
Iran has confirmed the deaths of its National Security Council head Ali Larijani and Basij commander Gholamreza Soleimani. But US President Donald Trump faced the biggest setback of his second term today when his counter terrorism chief Joe Kent resigned in protest against his decision to launch military strikes against Iran. Rifat Jawaid explains the significance of both these massive developments
Transcript
Two huge developments and this could shape the future of the ongoing conflict in Iran. The settler colony has claimed
to have killed Iran's National Security Council chief Ali Larijani and besieged militia commander Hulam Raza Sulmani.
Iran has now confirmed the death of both Larijani and Sulmani, a top member of the Trump administration, then resigned
today in protest against the illegal invasion of Iran. This would be the focus of my video tonight. Plenty to
unpack here and I'm already late for my video tonight. So, sorry for that, but that's because it's my daughter Zabin's
birthday. Happy birthday to my little angel. Anyway, so please stay tuned.
Israeli terrorists have claimed to have killed Ali Larijani and Sulmani both.
The Islamic Republic has confirmed the deaths of Larijani and Sulmani.
Larijani's death would be a huge blow to Iran, but it will also result in a dramatic shift in Iran's approach to its
minutenational security. I will explain how in a bit. But Larijani kind of saw this coming and he wasn't overly concerned
minute, secondsabout risks to his safety. Only a few days ago, he was bravely walking on the streets of Thran while taking part in
minute, secondsthe Kutz day rally. It was quite extraordinary to see him and other members of the Iranian leadership to forget about their safety and engage
minute, secondswith members of the public. Larijani's decision to walk on the streets of Thran, even amidst indiscriminate bombings, was so inspiring for average
minute, secondsIranians, that the black jacket that he wore that day became one of the most sought after piece of clothing for Iranians. Larijani's social media
minute, secondsaccount has just confirmed that he has returned to his creator. The social media post read and I quote, "In the
minute, secondsname of Allah, the most gracious, the most merciful, dear, and proud people of Iran to the Muslim nations and the free
minute, secondspeople of the world, a servant of God has returned to God. Indeed, a servant of Allah has joined his Lord as a martyr." End quote.
minutes, secondsWhen you see Larijani's last social media post today, you can understand just how fearless these Iranians are
minutes, secondsabout death. He wrote on Twitter, and I quote, "On the occasion of the funeral ceremony for the valiant martyrs of the Islamic Republic of Iran's Navy, their
minutes, secondsmemory will forever remain in the heart of the Iranian nation. And these martyrdoms will strengthen the foundation of the Islamic Republic's
minutes, secondsarmy for years to come within the structure of the armed forces. I beseech the Almighty God for the highest ranks
minutes, secondsfor these dear martrs. End quote. As I said, it's a massive loss for Iran.
minutes, secondsLarijani was someone who has seen the Iran Iraq conflict and responsible for shaping the security apparatus of his
minutes, secondscountry. But his passing can also mean that his successor would be a lot more hawkish in his approach towards the US
minutes, secondsand the settler colony because they have seen the reality of their illegal aggression. So if Israeli terrorists thought it was a great idea to
minutes, secondsassassinate Larijani then good luck to them. Larijani at least believed in the importance of diplomacy despite being
minutes, secondsthe security chief. Rest assured that his successor won't. So the more American and Israeli terrorists kill the members of the Iranian leadership team,
minutes, secondsthe more they are busy creating a new Iran which may not like to believe in diplomacy at all. Also, I wouldn't be
minutes, secondssurprised if Iran completely takes a new approach towards its nuclear ambition now since the country now knows what
minutes, secondsit's been made to face for no fault of its own. Even members of the Donald Trump administration are now coming out
minutes, secondsin the open to register their protest against the illegal invasion of Iran.
minutes, secondsTrump's homeland security chief Tulsi Gabbad had already said that Iran was not pursuing nuclear weapons. Today,
minutes, secondsAmerica's counterterrorism chief counterterrorism chief Joe Kent resigned from the Trump administration saying
minutes, secondsthat his conscience doesn't allow him to continue with his country's illegal invasion of Iran. He wrote on Twitter
minutes, secondsand I quote, "After much reflection, I have decided to resign from my position as director of the National Counterterrorism Center effective today.
minutes, secondsI cannot in good conscience support the ongoing war in Iran. Iran posed no imminent threat to our nation and it is
minutes, secondsclear this is very important and it is clear that we started this war due to pressure from Israel and its powerful
minutes, secondsAmerican lobby. It has been an honor serving under Porters and Tulsi Gabard and leading the professionals at NCTC.
minutes, secondsMay God bless America. End quote. His statement added and I quote, I support the values and the foreign policies that
minutes, secondyou campaigned. He's addressing Donald Trump on in which you
minutes, secondsenacted in your first term until June of You understood that the wars in the Middle East were a trap that robbed
minutes, secondsAmerica of the precious lives of our patriots and depleted the wealth and prosperity of our nation. In your first
minutes, secondsadministration, you understood better than any modern president how to decisively apply military power without getting us drawn into neverending wars.
minutes, secondsYou demonstrated this by killing Kasamsulmani and by defeating ISIS. Early in this administration,
minutes, secondshighranking Israeli officials and influential members of the American media deployed a misinformation campaign
minutes, secondsthat wholly undermined your America first platform and swed pro-war sentiments to encourage a war with Iran.
minutes, secondsThis echo chamber was used to deceive you into believing that Iran posed an imminent threat to the United States and
minutes, secondsthat should you strike now, there was a clear path to a swift victory. This was a lie and is the same tactic the Israeli
minutes, secondsused to draw us into the disastrous Iraq war that cost our nation the lives of thousands of our best men and women. We
minutes, secondscannot make this mistake again. As a veteran who deployed to combat times,
minutes, secondsand as a gold star husband who lost my beloved wife Shannon in a war manufactured by Israel, I cannot support
minutes, secondssending the next generation off to fight and die in a war that serves no benefit to the American people, nor justifies
minutes, secondsthe cost of American lives. I pray that you will reflect upon what we are doing in Iran and who we are doing it for. The
minutes, secondstime for bold action is now. You can reverse course and chart a new path for our nation or you can allow us to slip
minutes, secondsfurther towards decline and chaos. You hold the cards. End quote.
minutes, secondsEssentially what Kent is saying is that US government is being run by the Israeli terrorists. That's exactly what I have been saying all along.
minutes, secondsUS is an Israeli colony and who is responsible? none other than this deranged occupant of the White House
minutes, secondscalled Donald Trump. In Joe Kent had told Tucker Carlson that war with Iran would be bloody. Let me just ask you one last question cuz he, you know,
minutes, secondshe called it years ago. Um, you referred to what a war with Iran would do to the United States, and I I don't
minutes, secondsknow that a lot of people in this country fully understand what Iran is as a nation state. It's not Afghanistan.
minutes, secondsWhat do you think the immediate and then longer term effects of a war with Iran would be on the United States
minutes, secondsimmediately? It would be very bloody. I I have no doubt that we could probably defeat some of their air defense and go in there and have another shock and awe
minutes, secondscampaign. But again, like we saw how the shock and awe campaign in Iraq really didn't actually work in the long run. Uh so I have no doubt that we'd have some immediate results that people would cheer about here in the United States.
minutes, secondsBut Iran, Persia has always been an empire. It's been around longer than any of the other players in the modern Middle East right now. And they are not
minutes, secondsgoing anywhere. And right now, Iran has a lot of internal problem. They have a lot of internal strife with the Ayatollah. And that that government that's only been in power since
minutes, secondsBut again, if we start conducting strikes in Iran, everyone in Iran will rally around their leader and they will become even more revolutionary. And then
minutes, secondswe will have Iranian proxies throughout the entire region that will be conducting attacks just like we had uh in Jordan. And really in the long term,
minutes, secondsTucker, the axis that has been built uh really since Putin invaded Russia and we decided that since Putin invaded Ukraine and we decided we were going to throw this massive sanctions package at them,
minutes, secondsChina has come in as a major player and we are deeply compromised by China. They control a lot of our economy. They control uh global manufacturing. They're
minutes, secondsdeeply embedded in in Wall Street and they've also made deals with the Iranians. They want access to Iranian pro. Uh not to mention the fact that
minutes, secondsBiden killed off US energy independence and now he's going after LNG and the world's biggest LNG exporters are Iran,
minutes, secondsRussia and Qatar. So this axis would become very powerful if we get deeply involved and deeply entangled with Iran.
minutes, secondsWe are do we are playing right into China's hands because China would like nothing more than for us to be uh committing our military industrial base
minutes, secondsto a war in Eastern Europe in Ukraine and then to be committing our conventional military power, our blood and our treasure back in the Middle
minutes, secondsEast. That will make the Pacific, our actual border, extremely vulnerable to Chinese aggression. Or China will simply
minutes, secondsjust watch us bleed out economically as we bleed out on the battlefield on these couple different theaters. It's absolute insanity. It's opening up Pandora's box.
minutes, secondsAnd again, for what gain to the American people,
minutes, secondsI I mean, I think that's the most reasonable, common sensebased, factual assessment I've seen of this from anyone.
minutes, secondsBut how did Trump react? Like a typical loser, he said Kent wasn't worthy of his role.
minutes, secondsMr. President, your director of national counterterrorism, Joe Kent, he just resigned today. He said he can't support your conflict with Iran. What's your
minutes, secondsreaction to that? And did you Well, I read his statement. I always thought he was a nice guy, but I always thought he was weak on security. Very
minutes, secondsweak on security. Uh I didn't know him well, but I thought he seemed like a pretty nice guy. Uh but when I read a
minutes, secondsstatement, I realized that it's a good thing that he's out because he said that Iran was not a threat. Iran was a
minutes, secondsthreat. Every country realized what a threat Iran was. The question is whether or not they wanted to do something about it. And many people, many of the
minutes, secondsgreatest military scholars are saying for years that president should have taken out Iran because they wanted a nuclear weapon. They were uh if we
minutes, secondsdidn't do the attack or if I'll go a step further, if I didn't terminate the Iran nuclear deal given to us, one of
minutes, secondsthe worst deals ever made by Barack Hussein Obama. Remember when they sent Boeing s over there loaded with cash?
minutes, secondsSo why did this deranged occupant of the White House appoint him for this hugely important position? Clearly his
minutes, secondsderangement is costing his country and the world and he continues to remain in a state of denial. More and more Europeans are now deserting him. Today,
minutes, secondsFrench President Emanuel Macron openly contradicted Trump's claims, stating that his country would never take part in opening the state of Almuz.
minutes, secondsWe are not party to the conflict and therefore France will never take part in operations to open or liberate the straight of in the current
minutes, secondscontext. On the other hand, we are convinced that once the situation has calmed down and I deliberately use this term broadly. Once the situation has
minutes, secondscalmed down, that is to say, once the main bombing has ceased, we are ready along with other nations to assume responsibility for the escort system.
minutes, secondsBut it is all political, technical and obviously with all the actors of maritime transport, with the insurers and operational work that we must build.
minutes, secondsWe have begun exchanges with India, with several other European partners or partners in the region.
minutes, secondsThen came this German foreign minister said that his country was pursuing talks with Iran. He said that if the US was
minutes, secondsunable to open the state of Hormuz, then how on earth Trump expected Europeans to do this job?
minutes, secondstarget.
minutes, secondsLook, these bloodthirsty maniacs are determined to cause chaos across the world by their reckless imperialistic
minutes, secondsactions. Even though it's clear that they simply cannot achieve any of their so-called objectives in Iran, they
minutes, secondscontinue to cause carnage. The more they indulge in such depraved actions, the more they are making Iranians resolve
minutes, secondsstronger to retaliate with more ferocity. Trust me, if you thought Iran caused chaos across the Middle East in
minutes, secondsthe last days, wait until you see what the new leadership does now. Trump and his war criminal Israeli friends
minutes, secondswould then be asked if it was all worth it. That's it for me. Thank you very much for your support of this platform and our journalism. If you haven't
minutes, secondssubscribed to my channel, please do so because that's one of the many ways you can support independent journalism. God bless you all.
******************
- admin
- Site Admin
- Posts: 40663
- Joined: Thu Aug 01, 2013 5:21 am
Re: Part 2 Anti-Anti-Nazi Barbarian Hordes are Knocking Down
by admin » Mon Mar 16, 2026 9:51 pm
Trump’s extraordinary meltdown after Europe rejects plea for help on Hormuz | Janta Ka Reporter
Janta Ka Reporter
Mar 16, 2026
Donald Trump has reacted angrily after several NATO members including the UK and Germany said they would not join the US in sending ships to the Strait of Hormuz to get the stuck oil tankers pass through the waterway. Rifat Jawaid explains the reasons behind Trump's global isolation even more than two weeks after his initial strikes on Iran.
Transcript
My goodness, Donald Trump's humiliation is complete and is manifesting in such a cruel fashion. The man has been told by
secondshis NATO allies that none of them are willing to come to his help in the state of Hormuz. You have to see the sequence
secondsof events today and you would still not feel sorry for this deranged occupant of the White House. This would be the broad
secondsfocus of my video tonight. Also in my video, Bob Villain repeating his death to the IDF chants in London and Spanish
secondsactor Heavier Bardame calling for free Palestine at this year's Oscars and explaining his reason why he's opposed
secondsto Trump's and Israel's illegal wars. So please stay tuned. And by the way, we have just hit half the million
secondssubscribers mark on YouTube. So a heartfelt thank you to all you lovely people. Donald Trump is now literally
secondscrying like a baby. His meltdown in all his press conferences are getting increasingly comical. Last night he told
minute, secondsreporters on board Air Force One that NATO was not being a great ally by refusing to come to his help in the
minute, secondsstate of Armuse. What he didn't realize or he chose not to remember is the fact that the NATO's article says that
minute, secondsmember countries would only come to the rescue of another member only if that country is being attacked. It doesn't
minute, secondssay that NATO member countries would be obliged to send their troops even when a member country launches an illegal attack on another sovereign country.
minute, secondsHence, rejections from country after country. First, let's watch Trump's public meltdown against NATO members.
minute, secondsAnd when we want to know, do you have any mind sweepers? Well, would rather not get involved,
minute, secondssir? I said, for you mean for years,
minute, secondswe're protecting you and you don't want to get involved in something that is very minor, very few shots going to be taken because they don't have many shots
minutes, secondleft. But they said, "We'd rather not uh get involved. I just want the fake news
minutes, secondsmedia and everybody else to remember that that was said because uh when and I've been a big critic of all of the
minutes, secondsprotecting of countries because I know that we'll protect them and if ever needed if we ever needed help they won't
minutes, secondsbe there for us. I've just known that for a long period of time just like I knew about the strait that it would be a
minutes, secondsweapon. I was very surprised with the United Kingdom because the United Kingdom two weeks ago I said, "Why don't
minutes, secondsyou send some ships over?" And he really didn't want to do it. I said, "You don't want to do it. We've been with you.
minutes, secondsYou're our oldest ally and we spend a lot of money on, you know, NATO and all of these things to protect you. I mean,
minutes, secondswe're protecting them. We're working with them on Ukraine. Ukraine's thousands of miles away, separated by a vast ocean. We don't have to do that.
minutes, secondsBut we did it. Well, Biden did it. I mean, I have to be honest with you. Three. Biden got taken to the cleaners.
minutes, secondsBut we worked with them in Ukraine. We don't need to work with them in Ukraine.
minutes, secondsAnd then they tell us that we have a mine ship around and they don't want to do it. I I think it's I think it's terrible. No, I would I was very
minutes, secondssurprised. I told him, you know, he we requested two aircraft carriers, which they had, and he didn't really want to
minutes, secondsdo it. And then right after the war essentially ended, you know, meaning uh they were obliterated, he said, uh, I
minutes, secondswould like to send the aircraft carriers. I said, I don't need them after the war has ended and won. I need it before the war. So, I was very upset
minutes, secondswith, not upset, I was I was not happy with the UK. Uh, I think they'll be involved. Yeah, maybe. But they should
minutes, secondsbe involved enthusiastically. We've been protecting these countries for years with NATO because NATO is us.
minutes, secondsYou can ask Putin. Putin fears us. He doesn't fear. He has no fear of Europe whatsoever.
minutes, secondsK. Stmer from the UK was one of the first to publicly spell out his country's objection to taking part in
minutes, secondsany military adventurism. Our priority is always the national interest and so
minutes, secondswe have been clear and consistent in our objectives throughout this conflict.
minutes, secondsFirst, we will protect our people in the region.
minutes, secondsSecond, while taking the necessary action to defend ourselves and our allies, we will not be drawn into the wider war.
minutes, secondsAnd third, we will keep working towards a swift resolution that brings security and stability back
minutes, secondsto the region and stops the Iranian threat to its neighbors.
minutes, secondsI want to see an end to this war as quickly as possible because the longer it goes on, the more dangerous the
minutes, secondssituation becomes and the worse it is for the cost of living back here at home.
minutes, secondsGermany, which has historically sided with genocidal maniacs and supported the idea of killing babies and children, too
minutes, secondscame out in the open to publicly distance itself from the illegal war of choice launched by Trump and his terrorist Israeli boss Benjamin Netanyahu.
minutes, secondsWe are ready to ensure safe passage through the straits of Hormuz diplomatically.
minutes, secondsHowever, there will be no military participation.
minutes, secondsWe stand by our commitments and we are fulfilling our alliance tasks particularly on NATO's eastern flank and
minutes, secondsin the high north. What does the world expect? What does Donald Trump expect from let's say a handful or two handfuls
minutes, secondsof European frigots in the straight of Hormuz that the powerful American Navy cannot accomplish there alone? That's
minutes, secondsthe question I ask myself. And before we make a decision outside of NATO territory, by the way, we would need
minutes, secondsboth an international framework and a mandate from the German Bundesag, I would think about that very carefully
minutes, secondsbefore we take that step. And I see absolutely no reason to do so. It's not our war. We didn't start it. We want diplomatic solutions and a swift end.
minutes, secondsAnd now when these Europeans declare their dislike for the war against Iran,
minutes, secondsit's not that they have suddenly developed respect for international law or that they have become compassionate towards human suffering. Far from it.
minutes, secondsThese are deeply racist and barbaric people. This time the only reason why they are hiding behind the international
minutes, secondlaw is because they know what is at stake. Sending ships through that narrow waterway in the straight of Hormuz is a
minutes, secondscertain death trap and no one wants to risk the lives of their sailors and safety of the expensive ships. Also,
minutes, secondsthey do not want their cities to turn into rubble as a result of the Iranian retaliation.
minutes, secondsWhat would it do to the economy and general confidence of investors in their countries if they see a barrage of
minutes, secondsIranian missiles and drones routinely raining through their skies? Iran is accustomed to taking hits from its enemies. So, it wouldn't make much of a
minutes, secondsdifference if these Europeans also join the aerial bombardments of Iranian cities. Hence, the sudden realization of
minutes, secondsinternational law amongst these rogue European politicians. And there's growing public anger against Trump and
minutes, secondsNetanyahu's decision to bomb Iran for no reason. Last night, Spanish actor Heavier Bardin used the Oscars platform
minutes, secondto register his protest against Western countries illegal wars. He also stunned everyone by making free Palestine
minutes, secondschance. Then he explained why he was opposed to illegal wars.
minutes, secondsNo to war and free Palestine.
minutes, secondsTell me about the pins you're wearing tonight.
minutes, secondsWell, I'm wearing a pin that I used in uh with the Iraq war, which it was an illegal war. And we are here years
minutes, secondsafter with another illegal war creative created by Trump and Netanyahu in order to to with another lie which is like to
minutes, secondsto defeat the regime. that they are radicalizing the the regime by their horrific actions. So that's not the
minutes, secondsreason as it was not the reason weapons of mass destruction in So and also the Palestine uh symbolism of resistance.
minutes, secondsThen UK's own Bob Villain this week once again repeated his death to the IDF chants during a rally to mark the K day in London.
minutes, secondsAnd I would like to conclude with death. Death to the IDF. Death.
minutes, secondsDeath to the IDF. Death to the IDF. Death to the IDF.
minutes, secondsDeath to the IDF.
minutes, secondsI will leave you with this broadcast from the CNN where Trump's former national security adviser, John Bolton,
minutes, secondshas finally told the truth about the ongoing military aggression against Iran. Bolton said that the only
minutes, secondscoalition that wanted this war against Iran was the US and the settler colony of Israel, hence America's global
minutes, secondsisolation. Well, you know, normally you build a coalition of the willing before you go to war. I mean, that's just a tip uh from from somebody who's been there.
minutes, secondsOur coalition was the US and Israel. I'm great with that coalition, but we should have gone to NATO members, not to tell them the operational details or the
minutes, secondstiming, but to say, "Look, we're going to take serious action here. Uh it's time for this regime to go. You are threatened by Iran's nuclear
minutes, secondscapabilities and aspirations. You are threatened by Iran's terrorist activities. We want you in this with us.
minutes, secondsNow, maybe we wouldn't have gotten all of NATO, but if we had worked the issue,
minutes, secondsit's at least possible that we would have gotten some from the outset. And as things develop during the last two plus
minutes, secondsweeks, uh we could have brought them in later, but none of that preparation was done. And and we're now seeing the downside. And I'll tell you, tweeting
minutes, secondsout or saying in a press release, you want China to help you open the straight is not the way to do this. This is what
minutes, secondsquiet diplomacy uh may succeed at. No guarantees, but you don't get it by publicly demanding that they come in.
minutes, secondsThat's it from me. Thank you very much for your support of this platform and our journalism. If you haven't subscribed to my channel, please do so
minutes, secondsbecause that's one of the many ways you can support independent journalism. God bless you all.
Sync to video time
Janta Ka Reporter
Mar 16, 2026
Donald Trump has reacted angrily after several NATO members including the UK and Germany said they would not join the US in sending ships to the Strait of Hormuz to get the stuck oil tankers pass through the waterway. Rifat Jawaid explains the reasons behind Trump's global isolation even more than two weeks after his initial strikes on Iran.
Transcript
My goodness, Donald Trump's humiliation is complete and is manifesting in such a cruel fashion. The man has been told by
secondshis NATO allies that none of them are willing to come to his help in the state of Hormuz. You have to see the sequence
secondsof events today and you would still not feel sorry for this deranged occupant of the White House. This would be the broad
secondsfocus of my video tonight. Also in my video, Bob Villain repeating his death to the IDF chants in London and Spanish
secondsactor Heavier Bardame calling for free Palestine at this year's Oscars and explaining his reason why he's opposed
secondsto Trump's and Israel's illegal wars. So please stay tuned. And by the way, we have just hit half the million
secondssubscribers mark on YouTube. So a heartfelt thank you to all you lovely people. Donald Trump is now literally
secondscrying like a baby. His meltdown in all his press conferences are getting increasingly comical. Last night he told
minute, secondsreporters on board Air Force One that NATO was not being a great ally by refusing to come to his help in the
minute, secondsstate of Armuse. What he didn't realize or he chose not to remember is the fact that the NATO's article says that
minute, secondsmember countries would only come to the rescue of another member only if that country is being attacked. It doesn't
minute, secondssay that NATO member countries would be obliged to send their troops even when a member country launches an illegal attack on another sovereign country.
minute, secondsHence, rejections from country after country. First, let's watch Trump's public meltdown against NATO members.
minute, secondsAnd when we want to know, do you have any mind sweepers? Well, would rather not get involved,
minute, secondssir? I said, for you mean for years,
minute, secondswe're protecting you and you don't want to get involved in something that is very minor, very few shots going to be taken because they don't have many shots
minutes, secondleft. But they said, "We'd rather not uh get involved. I just want the fake news
minutes, secondsmedia and everybody else to remember that that was said because uh when and I've been a big critic of all of the
minutes, secondsprotecting of countries because I know that we'll protect them and if ever needed if we ever needed help they won't
minutes, secondsbe there for us. I've just known that for a long period of time just like I knew about the strait that it would be a
minutes, secondsweapon. I was very surprised with the United Kingdom because the United Kingdom two weeks ago I said, "Why don't
minutes, secondsyou send some ships over?" And he really didn't want to do it. I said, "You don't want to do it. We've been with you.
minutes, secondsYou're our oldest ally and we spend a lot of money on, you know, NATO and all of these things to protect you. I mean,
minutes, secondswe're protecting them. We're working with them on Ukraine. Ukraine's thousands of miles away, separated by a vast ocean. We don't have to do that.
minutes, secondsBut we did it. Well, Biden did it. I mean, I have to be honest with you. Three. Biden got taken to the cleaners.
minutes, secondsBut we worked with them in Ukraine. We don't need to work with them in Ukraine.
minutes, secondsAnd then they tell us that we have a mine ship around and they don't want to do it. I I think it's I think it's terrible. No, I would I was very
minutes, secondssurprised. I told him, you know, he we requested two aircraft carriers, which they had, and he didn't really want to
minutes, secondsdo it. And then right after the war essentially ended, you know, meaning uh they were obliterated, he said, uh, I
minutes, secondswould like to send the aircraft carriers. I said, I don't need them after the war has ended and won. I need it before the war. So, I was very upset
minutes, secondswith, not upset, I was I was not happy with the UK. Uh, I think they'll be involved. Yeah, maybe. But they should
minutes, secondsbe involved enthusiastically. We've been protecting these countries for years with NATO because NATO is us.
minutes, secondsYou can ask Putin. Putin fears us. He doesn't fear. He has no fear of Europe whatsoever.
minutes, secondsK. Stmer from the UK was one of the first to publicly spell out his country's objection to taking part in
minutes, secondsany military adventurism. Our priority is always the national interest and so
minutes, secondswe have been clear and consistent in our objectives throughout this conflict.
minutes, secondsFirst, we will protect our people in the region.
minutes, secondsSecond, while taking the necessary action to defend ourselves and our allies, we will not be drawn into the wider war.
minutes, secondsAnd third, we will keep working towards a swift resolution that brings security and stability back
minutes, secondsto the region and stops the Iranian threat to its neighbors.
minutes, secondsI want to see an end to this war as quickly as possible because the longer it goes on, the more dangerous the
minutes, secondssituation becomes and the worse it is for the cost of living back here at home.
minutes, secondsGermany, which has historically sided with genocidal maniacs and supported the idea of killing babies and children, too
minutes, secondscame out in the open to publicly distance itself from the illegal war of choice launched by Trump and his terrorist Israeli boss Benjamin Netanyahu.
minutes, secondsWe are ready to ensure safe passage through the straits of Hormuz diplomatically.
minutes, secondsHowever, there will be no military participation.
minutes, secondsWe stand by our commitments and we are fulfilling our alliance tasks particularly on NATO's eastern flank and
minutes, secondsin the high north. What does the world expect? What does Donald Trump expect from let's say a handful or two handfuls
minutes, secondsof European frigots in the straight of Hormuz that the powerful American Navy cannot accomplish there alone? That's
minutes, secondsthe question I ask myself. And before we make a decision outside of NATO territory, by the way, we would need
minutes, secondsboth an international framework and a mandate from the German Bundesag, I would think about that very carefully
minutes, secondsbefore we take that step. And I see absolutely no reason to do so. It's not our war. We didn't start it. We want diplomatic solutions and a swift end.
minutes, secondsAnd now when these Europeans declare their dislike for the war against Iran,
minutes, secondsit's not that they have suddenly developed respect for international law or that they have become compassionate towards human suffering. Far from it.
minutes, secondsThese are deeply racist and barbaric people. This time the only reason why they are hiding behind the international
minutes, secondlaw is because they know what is at stake. Sending ships through that narrow waterway in the straight of Hormuz is a
minutes, secondscertain death trap and no one wants to risk the lives of their sailors and safety of the expensive ships. Also,
minutes, secondsthey do not want their cities to turn into rubble as a result of the Iranian retaliation.
minutes, secondsWhat would it do to the economy and general confidence of investors in their countries if they see a barrage of
minutes, secondsIranian missiles and drones routinely raining through their skies? Iran is accustomed to taking hits from its enemies. So, it wouldn't make much of a
minutes, secondsdifference if these Europeans also join the aerial bombardments of Iranian cities. Hence, the sudden realization of
minutes, secondsinternational law amongst these rogue European politicians. And there's growing public anger against Trump and
minutes, secondsNetanyahu's decision to bomb Iran for no reason. Last night, Spanish actor Heavier Bardin used the Oscars platform
minutes, secondto register his protest against Western countries illegal wars. He also stunned everyone by making free Palestine
minutes, secondschance. Then he explained why he was opposed to illegal wars.
minutes, secondsNo to war and free Palestine.
minutes, secondsTell me about the pins you're wearing tonight.
minutes, secondsWell, I'm wearing a pin that I used in uh with the Iraq war, which it was an illegal war. And we are here years
minutes, secondsafter with another illegal war creative created by Trump and Netanyahu in order to to with another lie which is like to
minutes, secondsto defeat the regime. that they are radicalizing the the regime by their horrific actions. So that's not the
minutes, secondsreason as it was not the reason weapons of mass destruction in So and also the Palestine uh symbolism of resistance.
minutes, secondsThen UK's own Bob Villain this week once again repeated his death to the IDF chants during a rally to mark the K day in London.
minutes, secondsAnd I would like to conclude with death. Death to the IDF. Death.
minutes, secondsDeath to the IDF. Death to the IDF. Death to the IDF.
minutes, secondsDeath to the IDF.
minutes, secondsI will leave you with this broadcast from the CNN where Trump's former national security adviser, John Bolton,
minutes, secondshas finally told the truth about the ongoing military aggression against Iran. Bolton said that the only
minutes, secondscoalition that wanted this war against Iran was the US and the settler colony of Israel, hence America's global
minutes, secondsisolation. Well, you know, normally you build a coalition of the willing before you go to war. I mean, that's just a tip uh from from somebody who's been there.
minutes, secondsOur coalition was the US and Israel. I'm great with that coalition, but we should have gone to NATO members, not to tell them the operational details or the
minutes, secondstiming, but to say, "Look, we're going to take serious action here. Uh it's time for this regime to go. You are threatened by Iran's nuclear
minutes, secondscapabilities and aspirations. You are threatened by Iran's terrorist activities. We want you in this with us.
minutes, secondsNow, maybe we wouldn't have gotten all of NATO, but if we had worked the issue,
minutes, secondsit's at least possible that we would have gotten some from the outset. And as things develop during the last two plus
minutes, secondsweeks, uh we could have brought them in later, but none of that preparation was done. And and we're now seeing the downside. And I'll tell you, tweeting
minutes, secondsout or saying in a press release, you want China to help you open the straight is not the way to do this. This is what
minutes, secondsquiet diplomacy uh may succeed at. No guarantees, but you don't get it by publicly demanding that they come in.
minutes, secondsThat's it from me. Thank you very much for your support of this platform and our journalism. If you haven't subscribed to my channel, please do so
minutes, secondsbecause that's one of the many ways you can support independent journalism. God bless you all.
Sync to video time
- admin
- Site Admin
- Posts: 40663
- Joined: Thu Aug 01, 2013 5:21 am
Re: Part 2 Anti-Anti-Nazi Barbarian Hordes are Knocking Down
by admin » Tue Mar 17, 2026 12:21 am
The Fall of Abu Dhabi: Why MBS is Trading the UAE for a Turkish Military Alliance
Money Lines Exposed
Mar 16, 2026 #saudiarabia #mbs #uae
Abu Dhabi built its regional power on a simple foundation — be indispensable. To Washington, to global capital, to the Arab world's moderate center. For years, the UAE punched far above its weight, leveraging its financial firepower, diplomatic agility, and security partnerships to position itself as the Gulf's most influential state. But the ground beneath Abu Dhabi is shifting. And the man responsible is its closest supposed ally — Mohammed bin Salman.
MBS is making a trade. The decades-long Saudi-Emirati partnership — forged in shared opposition to political Islam, Iran, and the Arab Spring — is quietly being devalued. In its place, Riyadh is building something more strategically significant: a working military and political relationship with Turkey. A relationship that gives Saudi Arabia access to Ankara's battle-hardened armed forces, its defense industrial base, and its unique position straddling NATO and the Muslim world.
For Abu Dhabi, the implications are devastating. The UAE's regional influence was always partly derivative — borrowed from its alignment with Saudi Arabia. As Riyadh pivots toward Ankara, the Emirates find themselves without their most powerful regional backer, facing a Saudi-Turkish axis they cannot match, and increasingly unable to shape the Middle East's new strategic architecture.
In this video, we examine why MBS is choosing Turkey over the UAE, what Saudi Arabia gains from this realignment, and what the fall of Abu Dhabi's regional influence means for the future of Gulf politics.
Transcript
Imagine waking up one morning to find that the country you thought was America's most reliable ally in the Middle East had quietly, almost overnight, switched sides, not to
Russia, not to China, but to Turkey. A NATO member, an Islamistleaning government that spent the last decade positioning itself as the new Ottoman
power of the modern world. Now, imagine that the country making this switch was not some small unstable nation teetering on the edge of collapse. It was the
United Arab Emirates, the gleaming financial capital of the Arab world, the home of Dubai, of Abu Dhabi, of the most ambitious sovereign wealth funds on
earth. The country that hosted American troops, signed the Abraham Accords, and positioned itself as the living proof of what a modern Arab state could look like when it chose prosperity over conflict.
And imagine that the man engineering this realignment was not even the leader of the UAE. It was Muhammad bin Salman of Saudi Arabia quietly constructing the
most dramatic geopolitical pivot the Gulf has witnessed in half a century. A pivot that is leaving Abu Dhabi exposed,
isolated, and scrambling for a new identity in a world that no longer looks anything like it did months ago. By the time you finish this video, you will understand not just what is happening in
the Gulf, but why the tremors radiating outward from Abu Dhabi are the early shock waves of a restructuring of global power so fundamental, so deep, and so
irreversible that everything that comes next for energy markets, for American influence, for the entire architecture of the postcold war international system
will be shaped by decisions being made right now in the palaces and war rooms of Riyad, Ankura, and Tran. Let us start at the very beginning because to truly understand where the Gulf stands today,
you need to understand the world that existed just months ago and how completely and permanently it has been destroyed by the cascade of events that
followed the American decision to strike Iran. To understand the fall of Abu Dhabi, you first need to understand what Abu Dhabi was, what it represented, what
it was supposed to become. Because what is being lost is not merely a diplomatic alignment or a military partnership.
What is being lost is an idea, a carefully constructed, meticulously maintained, enormously consequential idea about what the Arab world could be
and what it could offer to a globalizing world hungry for stability, opportunity,
and alternatives to the chaos that seemed to define so much of the broader Middle East. For four decades, the United States built and maintained what
it called a security umbrella over the Persian Gulf. This was not charity or idealism. This was the most calculated geopolitical transaction in modern
history. A deal structured with the precision of a corporate merger and the ruthlessness of a great power competition.
American aircraft carriers rotated through the Arabian Sea on permanent deployment cycles. American military bases dotted the landscape of Qatar,
Bahrain, Kuwait, and the UAE, providing logistics hubs, pre-positioned equipment, intelligence sharing networks, and the physical presence that
communicated American commitment more powerfully than any treaty language ever could. American weapons flowed into Saudi Arabia and the Emirates by the hundreds of billions of dollars over the
decades, sustaining the most lucrative arms export relationships in the history of American defense manufacturing and creating deep institutional dependencies
that bound Gulf militaries to American supply chains, American spare parts,
American technical support, and American congressional approval processes. In exchange for all of this, Gulf oil flowed to global markets priced exclusively in American dollars,
cementing the petrod dollar system that underpins the dollar's status as the world's reserve currency and gives Washington extraordinary leverage over the global financial system. Gulf
sovereign wealth funds recycled their petro dollar earnings into American treasuries, financing American deficits and supporting American asset prices.
Gulf states accepted American political leadership on the questions that mattered most to Washington. From how to contain Iran to how to manage the
Palestinian question to how to structure their internal governance in ways that maintained stability without threatening American commercial interests. It was a
transaction in the purest sense of that word. America provided the military guarantee and the political framework.
The Gulf provided the petro dollars, the political loyalty and the strategic geography. And for four decades, with periodic turbulence, but fundamental
continuity, that transaction held together. Then the detonator was lit.
American strikes on Iranian territory began the chain reaction. But what exploded in the days and weeks that followed was not merely Iranian infrastructure or Iranian military
capability. What exploded was the underlying logic of the American security umbrella itself. Because within the first hours of the American air
campaign, Iranian drones and ballistic missiles were already in the air, arcing across the Persian Gulf toward the very nations that had quietly knotted along
to American military planning that had allowed their territory to be used as staging grounds, their airspace to be accessed by American aircraft, their
intelligence services to coordinate with American counterparts. The nations that had collectively spent hundreds of billions of dollars on American weapon systems, Patriot batteries and THAAD
interceptors and F-fighter jets and guided missile destroyers, all of it purchased at premium prices with the explicit understanding that these
investments would deter exactly the kind of attack that was now materializing in real time. And in those first terrible hours, the deterrence failed. Or more
precisely, the deterrence worked against one kind of threat, a conventional state-on-state military confrontation while proving inadequate against the
kind of distributed high volume drone and missile saturation campaign that Iran had spent years and billions of dollars developing specifically to
overwhelm American supplied Gulf air defenses. Dubai International Airport,
the single busiest international aviation hub in the world, processing more than million passengers per year and serving as the primary gateway connecting Asia, Africa, Europe, and the
Americas, was struck. The evacuation of terminal buildings during active conflict sent images around the world that no amount of official reassurance
could fully counteract. The Jabal Ali port handling more container traffic than any other facility in the Middle East and standing as one of the most
critical logistics nodes in global trade was hit by debris from intercepted Iranian projectiles. The Ruay's industrial complex in Abu Dhabi, housing
the largest oil refinery in the country and a facility that normally processes nearly a million barrels of petroleum per day, was targeted by Iranian drones,
forcing the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company to shut down operations that sent shock waves through Asian energy markets before sunrise the following morning. An Amazon Web Services data
center in Abu Dhabi caught fire after being struck by aerial objects, raising immediate and alarming questions about the survivability of the cloud computing
infrastructure that tens of thousands of regional businesses, governments, and financial institutions depend on for their daily operations. This was not
collateral damage from a war being fought somewhere far away. This was the war materializing inside the most economically consequential real estate
in the entire world with a precision and a boldness that no one in the Gulf capitals had fully modeled or prepared for. And in that moment, in the hours
when the smoke was still rising over Ruace and the evacuation sirens were still echoing through Dubai's terminals and the damage assessment teams were
still trying to quantify what had been hit and how badly. something fundamental and irreversible shifted in the private calculations of every Gulf leader
sitting in their palaces watching the reports come in. They had agreed tacitly or explicitly to the American military operation against Iran. They had
accepted the strategic logic that weakening Iran served their long-term interests. They had bought the weapons,
provided the basing, shared the intelligence, allowed American forces to use their territory in ways that any sophisticated adversary would have noted and targeted accordingly. And now they
were absorbing the consequences directly with their airports hit and their oil refineries shut down and their populations frightened in ways that no official statement could entirely
contain. And the question forming in the back of every Gulf ruler's mind and whatever private chambers they retreated to when the cameras were switched off
was devastatingly simple. If this is what it costs to be on America's side,
what exactly is America offering that makes this cost acceptable? What is the value proposition of a military guarantee that invites the attack it was
supposed to prevent? That question did not have a comfortable answer. And the man who grasped this most clearly and moved fastest and most decisively to act
on it was Muhammad bin Salman of Saudi Arabia. Now the story becomes genuinely complex because NBS and the UAE
leadership, principally shik Muhammad bin Zed have maintained a relationship of both partnership and rivalry that stretches back through decades of Gulf
politics. They are brothers in the Gulf family, united by geography and culture and a shared ancestral fear of Iranian power and a shared interest in
maintaining the stability of monarchical governance against any force democratic,
Islamist or revolutionary that might threaten it. But they are also competitors for regional influence, for international prestige, for the investment flows of the global capital
markets that both kingdoms need to fund their ambitious domestic transformation programs. two men with two enormous pools of sovereign wealth and two
meaningfully different visions of what the Arab world should become in the st century. And in this crisis, those differences have begun pulling them in
directions that are increasingly divergent and for the UAE in particular,
increasingly dangerous and increasingly difficult to navigate. What NBS is doing right now, beneath the surface of the publicly visible crisis management, is
something that almost no analyst in the Western mainstream press is covering with the seriousness and depth it deserves. While the UAE is absorbing Iranian strikes and scrambling to fully
activate its American supplied Patriot and thead missile defense batteries and trying to manage the economic fallout of disruptions to its airport and port and
refinery operations, Saudi Arabia under MBS has been conducting a parallel diplomatic and defense industrial campaign quiet and purposeful and
accelerating rapidly with Anara, with Turkey, with Riship Taip Erdogan. The same Erdogan that NBS was publicly feuding with just three years ago over
Qatar, over the Muslim Brotherhood, over the Kosogi affair, over competing visions of regional influence. The same Turkey that the UAE viewed as an
existential ideological competitor for the soul of Arab governance. The data on what has been happening between Riad and Ankura is now too substantial and too
consistent to dismiss as coincidence or routine procurement. Over just days at the World Defense Show in Riyad in early Turkey and Saudi Arabia
signed a comprehensive series of highlevel defense industrial agreements covering a fifth generation fighter jet development program, a utility helicopter platform, and a range of
unmanned naval surface and subsurface vehicles. The total package of deals was valued at approximately $billion,
making it one of the largest bilateral defense agreements ever signed outside of traditional American or European arm sales frameworks. Saudi Arabia's Military Industries Corporation, the
domestic defense company that NBS has been building into a genuine industrial champion as part of Vision signed technology transfer agreements with three separate Turkish defense firms.
Agreements that are explicitly designed to build Saudi domestic manufacturing capability rather than merely purchasing finished weapon systems. Saudi technical
personnel numbering in the hundreds have already been sent to BAR, the Turkish company that manufactures the Bayrakar series of combat drones that proved
their battlefield effectiveness so dramatically in Libya, Azerbaijan, and Ukraine for embedded technical training that will allow Saudi engineers to
eventually manufacture and maintain these systems independently. And the Turkish Aerospace Company displayed its next generation Khan stealth fighter at
the Riyad show with a Saudi flag painted on its tail fin. A deliberate,
unmistakable, and very public signal that Riyad is seriously considering becoming the launch customer and co-production partner for a fifth generation aircraft built entirely
outside American oversight, American export control regulations, and American congressional approval processes. This is not routine procurement. This is not
one country buying weapons from another because the price point happened to be competitive in a particular budget cycle. What is being built between Riot
and Ankra is a defense industrial partnership whose strategic implications extend far beyond any individual weapon system or any individual transaction.
The critical thing that Turkey offers Saudi Arabia, the thing that Washington simply cannot match, regardless of how sophisticated its weapons technology
becomes, is defense relationships without political conditions. No congressional delays. No human rights writers attached to every export
license. No threat that a future American administration might cut off spare parts or withhold technical support certifications if Riad does
something that Washington disapproves of. Whether that something is a military intervention in Yemen, a domestic political crackdown, a diplomatic initiative that undermines American
policy in the region, or a decision to price some fraction of Saudi oil in currencies other than the dollar. That conditionality, that permanent American
leverage over Gulf military capability is not a theoretical concern or a remote possibility. It is a recurring practical
constraint that NBS has bumped against repeatedly and that has shaped his strategic thinking in ways that are now producing visible and consequential
decisions. The lesson that hardened MBS's thinking was delivered not once but twice in quick succession. In
Iranian drone and cruise missile attacks devastated the Abike oil processing facility. the single most important piece of energy infrastructure in the
world, responsible for processing roughly % of global oil supply. The attack was extraordinarily brazen,
extraordinarily precise, and extraordinarily effective. The American response was extraordinarily limited. Washington issued public condemnations,
moved a modest additional troop deployment to Saudi Arabia as a show of symbolic solidarity, and then essentially moved on to other priorities. No retaliatory strikes, no
escalatory pressure, no meaningful shift in the military posture that might have deterred future attacks. NBS filed that lesson away. Then in Israeli
attacks on Gulf targets, including the strike on Doha that shocked every Gulf capital simultaneously and demonstrated that even the most fundamental
assumptions about American protection of its partners could not be relied upon,
reinforce the lesson with brutal clarity. When it matters most, when the bombs are actually falling and the refineries are burning and the leadership is sheltering in hardened
facilities, America weighs its strategic interests, its domestic politics, its relationship with Israel, and the Gulf States absorb whatever consequences flow
from that calculation. He decided with the cold clarity of a leader who has been burned twice by the same fire that Saudi Arabia needed security partners
whose interests were more directly and durably aligned with Riad's own survival. The architecture he is building reflects the full scope of that
decision. Saudi Arabia and Pakistan formalized a mutual defense pact in September a bilateral security commitment modeled explicitly on NATO's article collective defense language,
stipulating that an attack on one party is to be treated as an attack on both.
Then Turkey sought to join that framework, viewing the trilateral arrangement as a vehicle for strengthening regional deterrence at precisely the moment when American
reliability was being most publicly and most painfully questioned. The strategic logic of the trilateral combination as analysts in Ankra, Islamabad and Riyad
have articulated it openly is elegantly complimentary. Saudi Arabia brings the financial resources and the energy leverage to sustain a long-term independent security architecture.
Pakistan brings nuclear capability,
ballistic missiles, a large standing army with genuine combat experience and the demographic weight of a nation of million people. Turkey brings NATO standard military training and doctrine,
a defense industrial base that has demonstrated the ability to produce globally competitive weapon systems,
battlefield tested operational experience from Syria to Libya to Azerbaijan, and the unique strategic position of a country that sits a stride
the intersection of Europe, the Middle East and Central Asia with a foot in both the NATO world and the emerging multipolar order. These three sets of
capabilities fit together in a way that creates something genuinely more than the sum of its parts. They create the nucleus of an independent regional
security architecture that does not require American approval to function,
does not depend on American weapons to arm itself and does not need American diplomatic protection to operate. Now let us talk about money and energy
because this is where the consequences of everything we have discussed stop being a regional story and become a global one affecting every person on
earth who pays for gasoline, who depends on affordable goods crossing oceans, who has retirement savings and equity markets or who relies on a functioning
global financial system to service the debt that their government or their corporation or their household carries.
The straight of Hormuz is mi wide at its narrowest navigable point. Through those miles flows approximately %
of the world's entire oil supply every single day. Not % of Middle Eastern oil. % of all petroleum consumed by
every economy on Earth. Roughly million barrels of crude oil, refined petroleum products, and liqufied natural gas pass through that waterway every
hours, connecting the production fields of Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Iraq, the UAE,
Qatar, and Iran itself to the import markets of Asia, Europe, and the wider world. Japan imports nearly % of its oil through Hormuz. South Korea imports
the overwhelming majority of its energy supplies through the same route. India,
the world's third largest oil consumer and one of the fastest growing major economies, depends on Hormuz for a large share of its petroleum imports. China,
the world's largest oil importer by volume, moves billions of dollars of energy purchases through the strait every month. The European nations scrambling to replace Russian gas
supplies they lost after the Ukraine war have been expanding their purchases of Gulf liqufied natural gas much of which also passes through Hormuz on route to
European terminals. There is no exaggerating the centrality of this single geographical choke point to the functioning of the global economy. If
Hormuz closes even partially even temporarily the global energy system does not merely experience disruption.
It experiences something that more closely resembles cardiac arrest. D Iron's new Supreme Leader has declared explicitly and publicly that the Hormuz
closure will be maintained and deployed as a strategic instrument of pressure against enemies. Oil prices have already begun reflecting the market's assessment
of this threat. The International Energy Agency has warned that global oil supply could fall by as much as million barrels per day if shipping through the
straight drops to a fraction of its normal volumes. To put that number in its proper historical context, the entire oil production of Russia, the
second largest oil exporting nation in the world, is approximately million barrels per day. A hormuz induced supply shortfall of million barrels would be
roughly equivalent to removing nearly all of Russia from the global oil market simultaneously with no warning period and no alternative supply source ready
and capable of filling the void. The IEA triggered the largest release of emergency petroleum reserves from its member nation's strategic stockpiles in
the organization's entire history. A move that buys days and weeks of buffer time, but cannot substitute for the raw volume of oil that normally flows
through the straight day after day after day. Iran's warning that oil could reach $per barrel in a sustained hormuse closure scenario is not political
theater or propaganda designed purely for domestic consumption. It is a straightforward statement of the mathematics of global energy supply and demand under conditions of severe
disruption. And at $per barrel, the economic consequences radiate through the global system with a force that is almost impossible to fully model, but
whose broad outlines are deeply alarming to anyone who understands the interconnected fragility of modern economic systems. Airlines, which already operate on profit margins so
thin that a $swing in oil prices can mean the difference between profitability and bankruptcy, and which are simultaneously major employers and
essential infrastructure for global commerce and tourism, face a simultaneous existential squeeze. Global shipping costs, which are already
embedded invisibly in the price of literally every manufactured good that crosses an ocean, from the smartphone in your pocket to the clothing on your body
to the food in your kitchen. double and then double again. As vessel operators scramble to find alternative routing through the Cape of Good Hope at costs
and time delays that fundamentally alter the economics of global trade,
agricultural production worldwide, which depends on petroleum based fertilizers and petroleum fueled machinery for virtually every aspect of the modern
farming cycle, faces cost increases that translate directly and rapidly into food price inflation in markets as far away as West Africa and South Asia, where
food costs already consume the largest share of household budgets for hundreds of millions of people. Manufacturing costs in every industrial economy on
Earth spike simultaneously, compressing corporate profit margins, triggering hiring freezes and investment postponements and supply chain
restructurings that feed back into consumer confidence, consumer spending,
corporate tax revenues, and the fiscal positions of governments that are already carrying debt loads accumulated over years of deficit spending. And then
there are the financial markets, which are pricing in the war risk, but have not yet fully absorbed a $oil scenario. Equity markets globally have
already entered a period of elevated volatility as investors try to model outcomes for which there is no clean historical precedent. When central banks
face a simultaneous severe sustained supply side inflation shock of this magnitude, they are confronted with a policy choice that has no good option
and no middle path. They can raise interest rates aggressively to fight the inflation which in a global economy carrying the accumulated debt loads of
the post-pandemic era would trigger a cascade of mortgage defaults, corporate bond failures, sovereign debt distress events, and a recession that makes
previous downturns look manageable. Or they can hold rates low or cut them to support economic activity, accepting inflationary conditions that would
devastate the purchasing power of working and middle class populations in every affected country, producing the kind of political instability and social anger that rewrites electoral outcomes,
empowers extremist movements, and destabilizes the democratic institutions that Western governments have spent decades and trillions of dollars trying
to build and maintain. There is no monetary policy lever that simultaneously defeats supply side inflation. and sustains economic growth
when the underlying cause of the inflation is the physical absence of a critical raw material from global markets. The choice is between two
different versions of economic pain. And the political consequences of both are severe enough to genuinely alarm policy makers in Washington, Brussels, Tokyo,
and Beijing. The Gulf States understand all of this with an intimacy that no outsider analyst can fully match because they live at the center of the global
energy system and have studied its architecture, its vulnerabilities, and its dependencies with more focused sophistication than almost any government on Earth. But what is crucial
to understand and what sits at the very heart of why NBS is building the Turkish alliance and why the strategic logic of that alliance is so compelling from
Riad's perspective is that Saudi Arabia is not merely a victim of the Hormuz crisis. It is in a very specific and strategically decisive sense the country
best positioned to manage it, profit from it and convert it into lasting geopolitical leverage. Saudi Arabia's East West pipeline connecting the Gulf
Coast oil fields to the Red Sea port of Yamboo has a throughput capacity of approximately million barrels per day.
It is the only meaningful bypass route for Gulf oil that does not require navigating the Straight of Hormuz. and it sits entirely within Saudi territory
under Saudi sovereign control insulated from Iranian pressure and from the maritime disruption that is devastating shipping routes through the Gulf itself.
It cannot fully replace Hormuz. The mathematics of global oil consumption do not allow for that. But it can meaningfully mitigate the catastrophe
enough to give whoever controls it extraordinary leverage over every major petroleum importing economy in the world. Japan, South Korea, India, China,
and the European nations scrambling for emergency supplies all need Saudi cooperation with the East West pipeline,
routing to avoid the full severity of an economic disaster that their political systems genuinely cannot absorb. And Saudi Arabia is sitting at the valve.
This is the foundation on which NBS is constructing his most ambitious geopolitical gambit. He is not merely reacting to Iranian aggression or
managing the consequences of American unreliability. He is actively using the chaos and the disruption of this war to execute the most consequential
repositioning of Saudi Arabia's global strategic role in the kingdom's modern history. He is converting Saudi Arabia from a dependent client of American
security into the indispensable swing actor of the most severe global energy crisis in generations. The nation that holds the keys to whether the world's
most critical supply disruption becomes manageable or catastrophic. The Turkish military alliance is the instrument through which he acquires the defense industrial independence that makes this
repositioning sustainable and durable over the long term. A Saudi Arabia that depends on American weapons and American spare parts and American congressional
goodwill for its military operational capability cannot truly leverage its energy position against American interests when those interests conflict
with Saudi priorities because Washington can always threaten to turn off the military supply relationship as a counter pressure. But a Saudi Arabia
that is co-producing fifth generation fighters with Turkey, domestically manufacturing armed drones through technology transfer partnerships with
BAR and sheltered within a mutual defense architecture with Pakistan and Turkey modeled on NATO collective security principles that Saudi Arabia
has genuine strategic autonomy for perhaps the first time in its modern history. It can negotiate with Washington from a position of genuine independence rather than dependency. And
independence is what converts regional power into global leverage. Now, let us return to the UAE because understanding the specific trap that Abu Dhabi finds
itself in is essential to understanding why the title of this video names the fall of Abu Dhabi specifically and not the wider collapse of the Gulf Order
more generally. Saudi Arabia, for all the danger and turbulence of this crisis, is actually gaining strategic leverage within it. MBS is playing what
should be a weak hand with the instinctive aggression, opportunism, and long-term strategic vision that characterize his leadership at its most
effective. He's not trying to preserve the old order. He's building power within the new one that is replacing it.
The UAE is doing something fundamentally different, the Dubai model, the Abu Dhabi financial hub. The cosmopolitan economy built on tourism, technology,
finance, and logistics. The Abraham Accords architecture with its Israeli intelligence partnerships and Israeli business and technology relationships.
The American military partnership with its basing agreements and its Patriot batteries and its implicit guarantee.
the image of security and stability that is not merely a public relations asset but the foundational precondition for the confidence of the global capital and
the global talent that flows through the Emirates every single day. The UAE is trying to hold on to an existing order at the precise historical moment when
that order is being systematically demolished around it by forces too large and too powerful for any single small country to resist. And the painful irony
that must keep Emirati strategists awake in the deep hours of the night is that the very relationships that made the UAE so extraordinary, the American security
umbrella, the Israeli normalization, the pro-western positioning, the cosmopolitan openness are now making it the most exposed, most targeted, most
geopolitically vulnerable country in the Gulf. Iran is not randomly selecting its strike coordinates from some indifferent list of military targets. It is
systematically and deliberately attacking the most visible, most consequential symbols of the American aligned Israel normalized Arab modernity
that the UAE embodies more completely and more visibly than any other nation in the region. The Abraham Accords,
which the UAE celebrated as a strategic master stroke when they were signed, as a deal that simultaneously gave Abu Dhabi access to Israeli technology and
intelligence, opened commercial pathways to Israeli business ecosystems, signaled cos cosmopolitan modernity to global investors, and positioned the Emirates
at the center of a new American brokered regional architecture, now sit at the center of the UAE's strategic dilemma.
Because the accords have made the UAE a primary target in Iran's campaign to demonstrate that alignment with Israel carries an unacceptable cost. Every
Israeli business that opened a Dubai office, every Israeli intelligence contractor that established regional operations in Abu Dhabi, every American
military asset that flows through UAE territory is a point of Iranian targeting justification. And Saudi Arabia, which was supposed to be next in
line to join the accords, and whose participation would have converted the framework from a promising bilateral arrangement into a genuine regional realignment, has now made clear through
its actions and its diplomatic signaling that normalization with Israel under current conditions is not merely politically difficult. It is finished.
The Saudi Israeli deal that was supposed to be the capstone of the Abraham Accords architecture, the crowning achievement of American Middle Eastern diplomacy, was never delivered before
the war began. And in the environment the war has created with Arab public opinion inflamed by the devastation in Gaza and Iranian missiles visibly
striking Gulf infrastructure. It cannot now be delivered on any timeline that current political conditions allow for.
For the UAE, the loss of the Saudi normalization prospect is not merely a diplomatic disappointment. It is a fundamental strategic blow because the
value of the Emirati investment in the Abraham Accords was predicated substantially on Saudi Arabia eventually joining and transforming the framework
from a bilateral curiosity into a regional architecture that permanently restructured Middle Eastern power dynamics. Without Saudi Arabia, the
accords remain, but their strategic significance is diminished in ways that are difficult to compensate for. The UAE holds a position in an alliance
framework that is no longer capable of delivering the regional transformation it was designed to produce. And it holds that position while bearing the cost of
being Iran's most economically valuable target. Here is what makes the UAE's position genuinely existential rather than merely diplomatically
uncomfortable. Dubai is not merely a city or a national capital or commercial center. It is a system of confidence, a carefully constructed and meticulously
maintained signal to global capital and global talent that the Middle East contains one place that operates by global rules, that honors contracts and
property rights and judicial independence, that provides worldclass infrastructure and connectivity, that is safe and stable enough to build long-term businesses in, to base
regional headquarters in, to raise families in, to store and invest significant wealth in. Every element of that signal depends on the perception of
security. It is not the reality of security that matters in the first instance, though that matters too. It is the perception, the confidence that
tomorrow will be as stable as today, and that the rules by which business operates will not change catastrophically overnight. And every time an Iranian drone is intercepted in
the airspace above Dubai, every time emergency evacuations are ordered from terminals at the world's busiest international airport, every time debris
from intercepted missiles falls in the vicinity of the port facilities or the financial district or the residential towers where the expatriate professionals who keep Dubai's economy
running actually live. That perception takes a measurable, quantifiable, and in the long run irreversible hit. The economic architecture that this
perception of security has supported is staggering in its scale and its complexity. The Jebel Ali free zone alone hosts more than companies
from over countries making it one of the most concentrated clusters of international commercial activity anywhere in the world. The Dubai International Financial Center operates
under its own English common law jurisdiction with its own independent courts and it serves as the primary legal, regulatory and financial gateway
for Western companies operating across the Middle East, Africa and South Asia.
A combined catchment area encompassing more than two billion people in economic activity measured in the tens of trillions of dollars annually. The Abu
Dhabi Investment Authority manages an estimated billion dollars in global assets, positioning it among the four largest sovereign wealth funds in the world and making it a significant investor in equity markets, real estate,
infrastructure, and private equity across every major economy on Earth.
These are not abstract numbers. They are the physical embodiment of what years of visionary, disciplined, and sometimes ruthless national economic strategy has
built. And they are all, every single dimension of them, premised on an assumption of security stability that the war has now rendered uncertain in
ways that the UAE government cannot fully reassure its way out of. The multinational CFOs and regional directors and treasury managers at global corporations who headquartered
their Middle East operations in Dubai over the past two decades are not panicking. Panic is premature and panic is expensive and experienced operators
do not panic in response to elevated risk that has not yet fully materialized into actual business disruption. But they are having conversations that they were not having months ago.
Conversations about business continuity planning across multiple locations.
Conversations about distributed risk and whether concentrating so much regional operational infrastructure in a single location that is now demonstrabably
within the strike range of Iranian weapon systems represents an acceptable risk exposure for corporate boards and insurance underwriters and the institutional investors who scrutinize such decisions. Those conversations,
even when they do not immediately produce relocation announcements or dramatic structural changes, alter the calculus around new investment commitments, around long-term lease
decisions, around hiring plans, around which city gets proposed as the venue for the next regional conference or the next high netw worth client summit, and
a thousand cautious recalibrations, each individually modest and individually justifiable, accumulate over months and years into a structural shift that is
ultimately just as damaging to Dubai's model as any single catastrophic event would be. The final piece of this analysis, the piece that determines
whether what we are witnessing is a temporary disruption from which the UAE can recover or permanent historical turning point after which recovery to
the previous equilibrium becomes impossible is the question of American strategic credibility in the broader region. Because beneath every specific
development we have examined, beneath the Turkish drone deals and the Saudi Pakistani defense pact and the Hormuz closure and the collapse of the Abraham
Accords expansion and the targeting of UAE infrastructure, there is a single underlying reality that is driving all of it and that makes all of it
individually and collectively comprehensible. The American era of Middle Eastern strategic primacy is ending not because American military
capability has diminished in any absolute technical sense. American carrier strike groups remain the most powerful concentrations of naval air power ever assembled by any nation in
history. American air superiority technology remains unmatched by any competitor. But military dominance, as the experience of Iraq and Afghanistan
demonstrated with painful clarity over years, and as the current Gulf situation is demonstrating again with equal clarity, does not automatically
and reliably translate into political control or sustained strategic stability. America can bomb Iran. It demonstrated that it can destroy Iranian
military infrastructure and Iranian nuclear program facilities. What American military power cannot do is bomb its way to a stable Gulf. It cannot
bomb Iran into stopping drone attacks on the airports and refineries of American allies. It cannot bomb the Arab streets rage about Gaza into indifference. It
cannot bomb away the memory of the times American presidents weighed their domestic political calculations and their relationships with Israel and decided that Gulf Arab states would have
to absorb whatever consequences followed. and it cannot bomb away the fundamental conclusion that has now settled with the weight of lived experience behind it in the minds of
Gulf leaders. That being America's ally in a war against Iran is not security.
It is an invitation. It is a marker painted on your infrastructure that tells Iran where to aim. MBS understands this with a cold and unscentimental
clarity. He understands it because he has been given no choice but to understand it. The road from the Ebayik attack in to the strikes on Doha in
to the current devastation in the Gulf has been a systematic education in the limits of American protection delivered through concrete physical
consequences rather than theoretical diplomatic analysis. And the Turkish military alliance is the most publicly visible expression of the strategic
conclusion he has drawn from that education. He is building Saudi Arabia for the world that actually exists, not for the world that was supposed to exist
according to the assumptions of the postcold war American order that is now definitively past its peak. For the UAE,
a similar reinvention is urgently necessary, but the constraints are more severe. The options are more limited,
and the timeline for finding workable answers is shorter than any of the Amiradi leadership's planning assumptions would have anticipated. Abu Dhabi must find a way to reduce its
profile as an Iranian target without abandoning the Israeli and American relationships that define its strategic identity and sustain the economic model
that makes the UAE valuable and functional. It must find a way to remain relevant and protected within the emerging Saudi Turkish framework without
endorsing an ideological vision of political Islam and Erdogan style governance that conflicts fundamentally with its foundational political philosophy. It must find a way to
maintain global capital's confidence in Dubai as a safe and stable operational base while the security environment that confidence depends on is being
reconstructed in real time by forces the UAE cannot control and can barely influence. These are genuinely difficult tasks. The Emirates has accomplished
difficult things before. Things that the experts said could not be done. Building a global financial hub in a desert,
normalizing with Israel without domestic instability, maintaining geopolitical neutrality in a region defined by conflict. But the margin for error in the current environment is narrower than
it has ever been. The forces reshaping the landscape are larger and more powerful than anything the UAE has previously confronted. And the time
available for finding answers that work is being compressed by every week of continued conflict. The signal flares burning over Abu Dhabi right now are
illuminating something far larger than a single city's strategic dilemma or a single country's diplomatic challenge.
They are revealing the outline of the world that comes after American Middle Eastern primacy. a world organized not around a single dominant external power
security guarantees and political preferences but around multiple overlapping competing and sometimes cooperating regional partnerships each
seeking the strategic autonomy that comes from genuine options and genuine alternatives. Turkey built that autonomy through decades of careful fence sitting in institutional development and domestic defense industrialization.
Pakistan built it through its nuclear program and its cultivation of relationships on multiple sides of every major regional divide. Saudi Arabia
under MBS is building it now through the Turkish Defense Partnership, the Pakistani Mutual Defense Pact, the energy leverage that comes from
controlling the only meaningful alternative to Hormuz, and the financial resources that come from being the world's largest proven oil reserve holder at a moment when the world's oil
supply is under its most severe strain in half a century. The UAE bet everything on a different model. On the model that said alignment with America,
normalization with Israel, integration with Western financial markets, and the projection of cosmopolitan modernity were the most reliable routes to
permanent security and permanent prosperity in the modern world. That bet made enormous sense in the world that existed when it was made. In the world that exists now with Iranian missiles
landing on Emirati infrastructure and American security guarantees proving insufficient and Saudi Arabia pivoting toward a new security architecture that
the UAE cannot fully join without abandoning core aspects of its identity.
That bet is being stress tested by the hardest possible conditions. The outcome of that stress test, whether the UAE model proves resilient enough to survive
and adapt, or whether it proves to have been inseparably dependent on a geopolitical order that can no longer be sustained, will be one of the defining
stories of the next decade. and its implications for global energy markets,
for international finance, for the future of American strategic influence,
and for every government watching these events and drawing lessons about the reliability of American security guarantees and the risks of American aligned foreign policy extend far beyond
the Gulf and far beyond the immediate crisis. Watch carefully because what is being decided in the palaces, in the port facilities, and the defense deal
rooms of the Gulf right now will shape the architecture of the global order for a generation. But to understand the full gravity of what is unfolding, we need to
spend more time inside the economic mathematics of the Hormuz crisis.
Because the numbers tell a story that is more alarming than any political analysis can fully capture on its own.
Consider what $oil actually means at the level of household economics across the developed world. American consumers,
who already felt the political consequences of elevated gasoline prices during the post-pandemic inflation period, would face pump prices that make those previous highs look moderate by
comparison. European households which depend on heating, oil and gas for warmth through the winter months and which are already paying elevated energy
costs following the restructuring of European energy supply after the Russia Ukraine war would face an energy cost burden that consumes a dramatically
higher share of disposable income leaving less for everything else that drives consumer demand and economic growth. And in the developing world in
South Asia and Southeast Asia and subsaharan Africa where energy subsidies have already stretched government budgets to their limits and where the
populations most affected by inflation are also the most politically volatile.
The social consequences of a sustained oil price spike of this magnitude are genuinely difficult to predict and potentially very dangerous to existing
political arrangements. The shipping economics alone deserve close examination because global trade in the current era is built on an assumption of affordable maritime transport that a
hormuse's closure challenges at its foundation. The container shipping industry, which moves roughly % of the world's manufactured goods, was already
structurally disrupted by the Houthi attacks on Red Sea shipping that followed the Gaza conflict. Those attacks forced shipping companies to reroute vessels around the Cape of Good Hope at the southern tip of Africa,
adding days and thousands of miles to each voyage and dramatically increasing fuel costs, charter rates, and insurance premiums for every cargo crossing
between Asia and Europe. A full Hormuse's closure on top of that existing Red Sea disruption would mean that two of the world's three most critical maritime corridors were
simultaneously compromised, forcing an already stretched global shipping network into routing configurations that the current vessel fleet and the current
port infrastructure were never designed to handle at the required volumes. The insurance industry is telling a story that quantifies the market's fear in
ways that are impossible to dismiss as political exaggeration. War risk insurance premiums for vessels transiting the Persian Gulf have reached levels not seen since the Iran Iraq
tanker war of the s. Some insurers have simply withdrawn coverage for Gulf transits entirely, leaving shipping companies either to self-insure at
enormous financial risk or to refuse the routes altogether. When insurance markets price in this level of risk,
actual physical trade flows are affected immediately and materially because no responsible logistics manager books a cargo movement that cannot be adequately
insured regardless of how important that cargo might be to the receiving economy.
And now we need to talk about what all of this means specifically for the Abraham Accords and for the Israeli dimension of the UAE's strategic
predicament. Because the intersection between the economic crisis, the security crisis, and the normalization architecture is where the UAE's dilemma
becomes most acute and most difficult to resolve, the Abraham Accords gave the UAE three things that were each extraordinarily valuable in different
ways. First, they gave Abu Dhabi access to Israeli defense technology, particularly in cyber security, surveillance, and intelligence analysis.
Areas where Israeli firms like NSO group and others had developed capabilities that were genuinely worldleading and that the UAE needed for both domestic
security purposes and for maintaining the competitive intelligence picture of a country operating in a complex regional environment. Second, the
accords unlocked commercial and investment flows between Israeli technology companies and Emirati sovereign wealth funds and investment vehicles, giving Abu Dhabi preferential
access to Israeli innovation ecosystems at a time when Israeli technology startups were producing some of the most globally competitive companies and
artificial intelligence, agricultural technology, water management, and cyber security. Third, and perhaps most importantly for the long-term strategic
picture, the accords positioned the UAE as an indispensable broker between the Israeli and Arab worlds, a country that could talk to both sides, host meetings
between parties that could not formally meet elsewhere, facilitate business and intelligence cooperation that operated beneath the level of official diplomatic
recognition, and claim a unique and valuable convening role in the emerging new Middle East architecture. All three of those benefits are now under threat
simultaneously for reasons that are directly connected to the war and to Iran's systematic targeting of the UAE as the most visible embodiment of the
normalization framework. The cyber security and intelligence sharing relationship with Israel is a direct Iranian targeting justification. The
technology investment flows are being disrupted by the security environment and by the reluctance of Israeli entrepreneurs and executives to maintain routine business travel to a city that
is now absorbing Iranian strikes. and the convening role. The ability to serve as the neutral ground for diplomatic and commercial interactions that could not
happen elsewhere depends entirely on Abu Dhabi being perceived as genuinely neutral and genuinely safe. Conditions that are both now in question in ways
they were not before the war began. The UAE government's public posture through all of this has been carefully calibrated in ways that reveal just how difficult the navigation has become.
Emirati officials have described their country as being in a state of defense,
a formulation that is precise and deliberate. It is not the language of an ally fully committed to the American and Israeli war effort. It does not call for
escalation. It does not demand that the United States expand its military operations on the UAE's behalf. It is the language of a country trying to
maintain enough ambiguity to keep communication channels open with Iran even while absorbing Iranian attacks.
Trying to signal to Washington that Emirati patience has limits without triggering the kind of rupture in the American relationship that would leave the UAE without any security
architecture at all. and trying to maintain enough domestic calm that the Dubai confidence signal does not break down entirely before a new strategic
equilibrium can be found. This is extraordinarily difficult diplomacy being conducted under conditions of physical attack and economic disruption
by a leadership that has never previously had to manage a crisis of this magnitude and this complexity. The UCE under MBZ built its diplomatic
reputation on careful positioning on using financial resources and strategic patience to navigate difficult situations without being forced into
binary choices. But the current situation is generating binary pressures that financial resources and diplomatic patience cannot entirely dissolve. At
some point, the UAE will need to make choices about how deep its commitment to the Abraham Accords framework genuinely runs when that framework carries real
and escalating costs. about whether its relationship with Saudi Arabia takes precedence over its ideological opposition to the Turkish Islamist model
that MBS is now embracing as a security partner. About whether the American security guarantee is worth the exposure it creates, or whether some version of a
more independent, more genuinely neutral Emirati positioning offers a more sustainable path to the security and stability that the Dubai model requires.
Those are not comfortable choices. They do not have clean answers and the window within which they can be deliberated and resolved carefully without being forced
by events into premature and potentially irreversible decisions is narrower every day. This is the substance of the fall of Abu Dhabi. Not fires and evacuations,
though those are real and their economic consequences are severe. The fall of Abu Dhabi is the collapse of the strategic concept that Abu Dhabi represented. The
idea that an Arab state could fully normalize with Israel, comprehensively align with America, open itself without reservation to global capital and global culture and global governance standards,
and do all of this within the framework of a genuinely stable, genuinely secure, genuinely sustainable national project.
That idea is now being subjected to the most demanding real world test it has ever faced. And the outcome of that test will determine not just the future of
the IAEA, but the future of every argument in every capital in the developing world. That alignment with the American international order is a
reliable path to security and prosperity rather than a source of exposure and vulnerability. The world is watching Abu Dhabi right now. And the lesson it draws
from what it sees will shape the next chapter of global geopolitics in ways that will outlast this war, outlast this crisis, outlast even the specific
leaders and the specific decisions that brought us to this moment. That is the true stakes of the fall of Abu Dhabi.
And that is why whatever happens next in the Gulf, whatever settlement or escalation or prolonged stalemate follows the battles being fought today,
this moment will be remembered as the moment when the American Middle Eastern order definitively ended and the uncertain, more dangerous, more
multipolar world that replaces it definitively began. Stay analytical and never stop watching because in the burning skies above the Gulf, in the
decisions being made in real time by men who understand this moment is the hinge of history. The future of the entire global order is being written.
Money Lines Exposed
Mar 16, 2026 #saudiarabia #mbs #uae
Abu Dhabi built its regional power on a simple foundation — be indispensable. To Washington, to global capital, to the Arab world's moderate center. For years, the UAE punched far above its weight, leveraging its financial firepower, diplomatic agility, and security partnerships to position itself as the Gulf's most influential state. But the ground beneath Abu Dhabi is shifting. And the man responsible is its closest supposed ally — Mohammed bin Salman.
MBS is making a trade. The decades-long Saudi-Emirati partnership — forged in shared opposition to political Islam, Iran, and the Arab Spring — is quietly being devalued. In its place, Riyadh is building something more strategically significant: a working military and political relationship with Turkey. A relationship that gives Saudi Arabia access to Ankara's battle-hardened armed forces, its defense industrial base, and its unique position straddling NATO and the Muslim world.
For Abu Dhabi, the implications are devastating. The UAE's regional influence was always partly derivative — borrowed from its alignment with Saudi Arabia. As Riyadh pivots toward Ankara, the Emirates find themselves without their most powerful regional backer, facing a Saudi-Turkish axis they cannot match, and increasingly unable to shape the Middle East's new strategic architecture.
In this video, we examine why MBS is choosing Turkey over the UAE, what Saudi Arabia gains from this realignment, and what the fall of Abu Dhabi's regional influence means for the future of Gulf politics.
Transcript
Imagine waking up one morning to find that the country you thought was America's most reliable ally in the Middle East had quietly, almost overnight, switched sides, not to
Russia, not to China, but to Turkey. A NATO member, an Islamistleaning government that spent the last decade positioning itself as the new Ottoman
power of the modern world. Now, imagine that the country making this switch was not some small unstable nation teetering on the edge of collapse. It was the
United Arab Emirates, the gleaming financial capital of the Arab world, the home of Dubai, of Abu Dhabi, of the most ambitious sovereign wealth funds on
earth. The country that hosted American troops, signed the Abraham Accords, and positioned itself as the living proof of what a modern Arab state could look like when it chose prosperity over conflict.
And imagine that the man engineering this realignment was not even the leader of the UAE. It was Muhammad bin Salman of Saudi Arabia quietly constructing the
most dramatic geopolitical pivot the Gulf has witnessed in half a century. A pivot that is leaving Abu Dhabi exposed,
isolated, and scrambling for a new identity in a world that no longer looks anything like it did months ago. By the time you finish this video, you will understand not just what is happening in
the Gulf, but why the tremors radiating outward from Abu Dhabi are the early shock waves of a restructuring of global power so fundamental, so deep, and so
irreversible that everything that comes next for energy markets, for American influence, for the entire architecture of the postcold war international system
will be shaped by decisions being made right now in the palaces and war rooms of Riyad, Ankura, and Tran. Let us start at the very beginning because to truly understand where the Gulf stands today,
you need to understand the world that existed just months ago and how completely and permanently it has been destroyed by the cascade of events that
followed the American decision to strike Iran. To understand the fall of Abu Dhabi, you first need to understand what Abu Dhabi was, what it represented, what
it was supposed to become. Because what is being lost is not merely a diplomatic alignment or a military partnership.
What is being lost is an idea, a carefully constructed, meticulously maintained, enormously consequential idea about what the Arab world could be
and what it could offer to a globalizing world hungry for stability, opportunity,
and alternatives to the chaos that seemed to define so much of the broader Middle East. For four decades, the United States built and maintained what
it called a security umbrella over the Persian Gulf. This was not charity or idealism. This was the most calculated geopolitical transaction in modern
history. A deal structured with the precision of a corporate merger and the ruthlessness of a great power competition.
American aircraft carriers rotated through the Arabian Sea on permanent deployment cycles. American military bases dotted the landscape of Qatar,
Bahrain, Kuwait, and the UAE, providing logistics hubs, pre-positioned equipment, intelligence sharing networks, and the physical presence that
communicated American commitment more powerfully than any treaty language ever could. American weapons flowed into Saudi Arabia and the Emirates by the hundreds of billions of dollars over the
decades, sustaining the most lucrative arms export relationships in the history of American defense manufacturing and creating deep institutional dependencies
that bound Gulf militaries to American supply chains, American spare parts,
American technical support, and American congressional approval processes. In exchange for all of this, Gulf oil flowed to global markets priced exclusively in American dollars,
cementing the petrod dollar system that underpins the dollar's status as the world's reserve currency and gives Washington extraordinary leverage over the global financial system. Gulf
sovereign wealth funds recycled their petro dollar earnings into American treasuries, financing American deficits and supporting American asset prices.
Gulf states accepted American political leadership on the questions that mattered most to Washington. From how to contain Iran to how to manage the
Palestinian question to how to structure their internal governance in ways that maintained stability without threatening American commercial interests. It was a
transaction in the purest sense of that word. America provided the military guarantee and the political framework.
The Gulf provided the petro dollars, the political loyalty and the strategic geography. And for four decades, with periodic turbulence, but fundamental
continuity, that transaction held together. Then the detonator was lit.
American strikes on Iranian territory began the chain reaction. But what exploded in the days and weeks that followed was not merely Iranian infrastructure or Iranian military
capability. What exploded was the underlying logic of the American security umbrella itself. Because within the first hours of the American air
campaign, Iranian drones and ballistic missiles were already in the air, arcing across the Persian Gulf toward the very nations that had quietly knotted along
to American military planning that had allowed their territory to be used as staging grounds, their airspace to be accessed by American aircraft, their
intelligence services to coordinate with American counterparts. The nations that had collectively spent hundreds of billions of dollars on American weapon systems, Patriot batteries and THAAD
interceptors and F-fighter jets and guided missile destroyers, all of it purchased at premium prices with the explicit understanding that these
investments would deter exactly the kind of attack that was now materializing in real time. And in those first terrible hours, the deterrence failed. Or more
precisely, the deterrence worked against one kind of threat, a conventional state-on-state military confrontation while proving inadequate against the
kind of distributed high volume drone and missile saturation campaign that Iran had spent years and billions of dollars developing specifically to
overwhelm American supplied Gulf air defenses. Dubai International Airport,
the single busiest international aviation hub in the world, processing more than million passengers per year and serving as the primary gateway connecting Asia, Africa, Europe, and the
Americas, was struck. The evacuation of terminal buildings during active conflict sent images around the world that no amount of official reassurance
could fully counteract. The Jabal Ali port handling more container traffic than any other facility in the Middle East and standing as one of the most
critical logistics nodes in global trade was hit by debris from intercepted Iranian projectiles. The Ruay's industrial complex in Abu Dhabi, housing
the largest oil refinery in the country and a facility that normally processes nearly a million barrels of petroleum per day, was targeted by Iranian drones,
forcing the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company to shut down operations that sent shock waves through Asian energy markets before sunrise the following morning. An Amazon Web Services data
center in Abu Dhabi caught fire after being struck by aerial objects, raising immediate and alarming questions about the survivability of the cloud computing
infrastructure that tens of thousands of regional businesses, governments, and financial institutions depend on for their daily operations. This was not
collateral damage from a war being fought somewhere far away. This was the war materializing inside the most economically consequential real estate
in the entire world with a precision and a boldness that no one in the Gulf capitals had fully modeled or prepared for. And in that moment, in the hours
when the smoke was still rising over Ruace and the evacuation sirens were still echoing through Dubai's terminals and the damage assessment teams were
still trying to quantify what had been hit and how badly. something fundamental and irreversible shifted in the private calculations of every Gulf leader
sitting in their palaces watching the reports come in. They had agreed tacitly or explicitly to the American military operation against Iran. They had
accepted the strategic logic that weakening Iran served their long-term interests. They had bought the weapons,
provided the basing, shared the intelligence, allowed American forces to use their territory in ways that any sophisticated adversary would have noted and targeted accordingly. And now they
were absorbing the consequences directly with their airports hit and their oil refineries shut down and their populations frightened in ways that no official statement could entirely
contain. And the question forming in the back of every Gulf ruler's mind and whatever private chambers they retreated to when the cameras were switched off
was devastatingly simple. If this is what it costs to be on America's side,
what exactly is America offering that makes this cost acceptable? What is the value proposition of a military guarantee that invites the attack it was
supposed to prevent? That question did not have a comfortable answer. And the man who grasped this most clearly and moved fastest and most decisively to act
on it was Muhammad bin Salman of Saudi Arabia. Now the story becomes genuinely complex because NBS and the UAE
leadership, principally shik Muhammad bin Zed have maintained a relationship of both partnership and rivalry that stretches back through decades of Gulf
politics. They are brothers in the Gulf family, united by geography and culture and a shared ancestral fear of Iranian power and a shared interest in
maintaining the stability of monarchical governance against any force democratic,
Islamist or revolutionary that might threaten it. But they are also competitors for regional influence, for international prestige, for the investment flows of the global capital
markets that both kingdoms need to fund their ambitious domestic transformation programs. two men with two enormous pools of sovereign wealth and two
meaningfully different visions of what the Arab world should become in the st century. And in this crisis, those differences have begun pulling them in
directions that are increasingly divergent and for the UAE in particular,
increasingly dangerous and increasingly difficult to navigate. What NBS is doing right now, beneath the surface of the publicly visible crisis management, is
something that almost no analyst in the Western mainstream press is covering with the seriousness and depth it deserves. While the UAE is absorbing Iranian strikes and scrambling to fully
activate its American supplied Patriot and thead missile defense batteries and trying to manage the economic fallout of disruptions to its airport and port and
refinery operations, Saudi Arabia under MBS has been conducting a parallel diplomatic and defense industrial campaign quiet and purposeful and
accelerating rapidly with Anara, with Turkey, with Riship Taip Erdogan. The same Erdogan that NBS was publicly feuding with just three years ago over
Qatar, over the Muslim Brotherhood, over the Kosogi affair, over competing visions of regional influence. The same Turkey that the UAE viewed as an
existential ideological competitor for the soul of Arab governance. The data on what has been happening between Riad and Ankura is now too substantial and too
consistent to dismiss as coincidence or routine procurement. Over just days at the World Defense Show in Riyad in early Turkey and Saudi Arabia
signed a comprehensive series of highlevel defense industrial agreements covering a fifth generation fighter jet development program, a utility helicopter platform, and a range of
unmanned naval surface and subsurface vehicles. The total package of deals was valued at approximately $billion,
making it one of the largest bilateral defense agreements ever signed outside of traditional American or European arm sales frameworks. Saudi Arabia's Military Industries Corporation, the
domestic defense company that NBS has been building into a genuine industrial champion as part of Vision signed technology transfer agreements with three separate Turkish defense firms.
Agreements that are explicitly designed to build Saudi domestic manufacturing capability rather than merely purchasing finished weapon systems. Saudi technical
personnel numbering in the hundreds have already been sent to BAR, the Turkish company that manufactures the Bayrakar series of combat drones that proved
their battlefield effectiveness so dramatically in Libya, Azerbaijan, and Ukraine for embedded technical training that will allow Saudi engineers to
eventually manufacture and maintain these systems independently. And the Turkish Aerospace Company displayed its next generation Khan stealth fighter at
the Riyad show with a Saudi flag painted on its tail fin. A deliberate,
unmistakable, and very public signal that Riyad is seriously considering becoming the launch customer and co-production partner for a fifth generation aircraft built entirely
outside American oversight, American export control regulations, and American congressional approval processes. This is not routine procurement. This is not
one country buying weapons from another because the price point happened to be competitive in a particular budget cycle. What is being built between Riot
and Ankra is a defense industrial partnership whose strategic implications extend far beyond any individual weapon system or any individual transaction.
The critical thing that Turkey offers Saudi Arabia, the thing that Washington simply cannot match, regardless of how sophisticated its weapons technology
becomes, is defense relationships without political conditions. No congressional delays. No human rights writers attached to every export
license. No threat that a future American administration might cut off spare parts or withhold technical support certifications if Riad does
something that Washington disapproves of. Whether that something is a military intervention in Yemen, a domestic political crackdown, a diplomatic initiative that undermines American
policy in the region, or a decision to price some fraction of Saudi oil in currencies other than the dollar. That conditionality, that permanent American
leverage over Gulf military capability is not a theoretical concern or a remote possibility. It is a recurring practical
constraint that NBS has bumped against repeatedly and that has shaped his strategic thinking in ways that are now producing visible and consequential
decisions. The lesson that hardened MBS's thinking was delivered not once but twice in quick succession. In
Iranian drone and cruise missile attacks devastated the Abike oil processing facility. the single most important piece of energy infrastructure in the
world, responsible for processing roughly % of global oil supply. The attack was extraordinarily brazen,
extraordinarily precise, and extraordinarily effective. The American response was extraordinarily limited. Washington issued public condemnations,
moved a modest additional troop deployment to Saudi Arabia as a show of symbolic solidarity, and then essentially moved on to other priorities. No retaliatory strikes, no
escalatory pressure, no meaningful shift in the military posture that might have deterred future attacks. NBS filed that lesson away. Then in Israeli
attacks on Gulf targets, including the strike on Doha that shocked every Gulf capital simultaneously and demonstrated that even the most fundamental
assumptions about American protection of its partners could not be relied upon,
reinforce the lesson with brutal clarity. When it matters most, when the bombs are actually falling and the refineries are burning and the leadership is sheltering in hardened
facilities, America weighs its strategic interests, its domestic politics, its relationship with Israel, and the Gulf States absorb whatever consequences flow
from that calculation. He decided with the cold clarity of a leader who has been burned twice by the same fire that Saudi Arabia needed security partners
whose interests were more directly and durably aligned with Riad's own survival. The architecture he is building reflects the full scope of that
decision. Saudi Arabia and Pakistan formalized a mutual defense pact in September a bilateral security commitment modeled explicitly on NATO's article collective defense language,
stipulating that an attack on one party is to be treated as an attack on both.
Then Turkey sought to join that framework, viewing the trilateral arrangement as a vehicle for strengthening regional deterrence at precisely the moment when American
reliability was being most publicly and most painfully questioned. The strategic logic of the trilateral combination as analysts in Ankra, Islamabad and Riyad
have articulated it openly is elegantly complimentary. Saudi Arabia brings the financial resources and the energy leverage to sustain a long-term independent security architecture.
Pakistan brings nuclear capability,
ballistic missiles, a large standing army with genuine combat experience and the demographic weight of a nation of million people. Turkey brings NATO standard military training and doctrine,
a defense industrial base that has demonstrated the ability to produce globally competitive weapon systems,
battlefield tested operational experience from Syria to Libya to Azerbaijan, and the unique strategic position of a country that sits a stride
the intersection of Europe, the Middle East and Central Asia with a foot in both the NATO world and the emerging multipolar order. These three sets of
capabilities fit together in a way that creates something genuinely more than the sum of its parts. They create the nucleus of an independent regional
security architecture that does not require American approval to function,
does not depend on American weapons to arm itself and does not need American diplomatic protection to operate. Now let us talk about money and energy
because this is where the consequences of everything we have discussed stop being a regional story and become a global one affecting every person on
earth who pays for gasoline, who depends on affordable goods crossing oceans, who has retirement savings and equity markets or who relies on a functioning
global financial system to service the debt that their government or their corporation or their household carries.
The straight of Hormuz is mi wide at its narrowest navigable point. Through those miles flows approximately %
of the world's entire oil supply every single day. Not % of Middle Eastern oil. % of all petroleum consumed by
every economy on Earth. Roughly million barrels of crude oil, refined petroleum products, and liqufied natural gas pass through that waterway every
hours, connecting the production fields of Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Iraq, the UAE,
Qatar, and Iran itself to the import markets of Asia, Europe, and the wider world. Japan imports nearly % of its oil through Hormuz. South Korea imports
the overwhelming majority of its energy supplies through the same route. India,
the world's third largest oil consumer and one of the fastest growing major economies, depends on Hormuz for a large share of its petroleum imports. China,
the world's largest oil importer by volume, moves billions of dollars of energy purchases through the strait every month. The European nations scrambling to replace Russian gas
supplies they lost after the Ukraine war have been expanding their purchases of Gulf liqufied natural gas much of which also passes through Hormuz on route to
European terminals. There is no exaggerating the centrality of this single geographical choke point to the functioning of the global economy. If
Hormuz closes even partially even temporarily the global energy system does not merely experience disruption.
It experiences something that more closely resembles cardiac arrest. D Iron's new Supreme Leader has declared explicitly and publicly that the Hormuz
closure will be maintained and deployed as a strategic instrument of pressure against enemies. Oil prices have already begun reflecting the market's assessment
of this threat. The International Energy Agency has warned that global oil supply could fall by as much as million barrels per day if shipping through the
straight drops to a fraction of its normal volumes. To put that number in its proper historical context, the entire oil production of Russia, the
second largest oil exporting nation in the world, is approximately million barrels per day. A hormuz induced supply shortfall of million barrels would be
roughly equivalent to removing nearly all of Russia from the global oil market simultaneously with no warning period and no alternative supply source ready
and capable of filling the void. The IEA triggered the largest release of emergency petroleum reserves from its member nation's strategic stockpiles in
the organization's entire history. A move that buys days and weeks of buffer time, but cannot substitute for the raw volume of oil that normally flows
through the straight day after day after day. Iran's warning that oil could reach $per barrel in a sustained hormuse closure scenario is not political
theater or propaganda designed purely for domestic consumption. It is a straightforward statement of the mathematics of global energy supply and demand under conditions of severe
disruption. And at $per barrel, the economic consequences radiate through the global system with a force that is almost impossible to fully model, but
whose broad outlines are deeply alarming to anyone who understands the interconnected fragility of modern economic systems. Airlines, which already operate on profit margins so
thin that a $swing in oil prices can mean the difference between profitability and bankruptcy, and which are simultaneously major employers and
essential infrastructure for global commerce and tourism, face a simultaneous existential squeeze. Global shipping costs, which are already
embedded invisibly in the price of literally every manufactured good that crosses an ocean, from the smartphone in your pocket to the clothing on your body
to the food in your kitchen. double and then double again. As vessel operators scramble to find alternative routing through the Cape of Good Hope at costs
and time delays that fundamentally alter the economics of global trade,
agricultural production worldwide, which depends on petroleum based fertilizers and petroleum fueled machinery for virtually every aspect of the modern
farming cycle, faces cost increases that translate directly and rapidly into food price inflation in markets as far away as West Africa and South Asia, where
food costs already consume the largest share of household budgets for hundreds of millions of people. Manufacturing costs in every industrial economy on
Earth spike simultaneously, compressing corporate profit margins, triggering hiring freezes and investment postponements and supply chain
restructurings that feed back into consumer confidence, consumer spending,
corporate tax revenues, and the fiscal positions of governments that are already carrying debt loads accumulated over years of deficit spending. And then
there are the financial markets, which are pricing in the war risk, but have not yet fully absorbed a $oil scenario. Equity markets globally have
already entered a period of elevated volatility as investors try to model outcomes for which there is no clean historical precedent. When central banks
face a simultaneous severe sustained supply side inflation shock of this magnitude, they are confronted with a policy choice that has no good option
and no middle path. They can raise interest rates aggressively to fight the inflation which in a global economy carrying the accumulated debt loads of
the post-pandemic era would trigger a cascade of mortgage defaults, corporate bond failures, sovereign debt distress events, and a recession that makes
previous downturns look manageable. Or they can hold rates low or cut them to support economic activity, accepting inflationary conditions that would
devastate the purchasing power of working and middle class populations in every affected country, producing the kind of political instability and social anger that rewrites electoral outcomes,
empowers extremist movements, and destabilizes the democratic institutions that Western governments have spent decades and trillions of dollars trying
to build and maintain. There is no monetary policy lever that simultaneously defeats supply side inflation. and sustains economic growth
when the underlying cause of the inflation is the physical absence of a critical raw material from global markets. The choice is between two
different versions of economic pain. And the political consequences of both are severe enough to genuinely alarm policy makers in Washington, Brussels, Tokyo,
and Beijing. The Gulf States understand all of this with an intimacy that no outsider analyst can fully match because they live at the center of the global
energy system and have studied its architecture, its vulnerabilities, and its dependencies with more focused sophistication than almost any government on Earth. But what is crucial
to understand and what sits at the very heart of why NBS is building the Turkish alliance and why the strategic logic of that alliance is so compelling from
Riad's perspective is that Saudi Arabia is not merely a victim of the Hormuz crisis. It is in a very specific and strategically decisive sense the country
best positioned to manage it, profit from it and convert it into lasting geopolitical leverage. Saudi Arabia's East West pipeline connecting the Gulf
Coast oil fields to the Red Sea port of Yamboo has a throughput capacity of approximately million barrels per day.
It is the only meaningful bypass route for Gulf oil that does not require navigating the Straight of Hormuz. and it sits entirely within Saudi territory
under Saudi sovereign control insulated from Iranian pressure and from the maritime disruption that is devastating shipping routes through the Gulf itself.
It cannot fully replace Hormuz. The mathematics of global oil consumption do not allow for that. But it can meaningfully mitigate the catastrophe
enough to give whoever controls it extraordinary leverage over every major petroleum importing economy in the world. Japan, South Korea, India, China,
and the European nations scrambling for emergency supplies all need Saudi cooperation with the East West pipeline,
routing to avoid the full severity of an economic disaster that their political systems genuinely cannot absorb. And Saudi Arabia is sitting at the valve.
This is the foundation on which NBS is constructing his most ambitious geopolitical gambit. He is not merely reacting to Iranian aggression or
managing the consequences of American unreliability. He is actively using the chaos and the disruption of this war to execute the most consequential
repositioning of Saudi Arabia's global strategic role in the kingdom's modern history. He is converting Saudi Arabia from a dependent client of American
security into the indispensable swing actor of the most severe global energy crisis in generations. The nation that holds the keys to whether the world's
most critical supply disruption becomes manageable or catastrophic. The Turkish military alliance is the instrument through which he acquires the defense industrial independence that makes this
repositioning sustainable and durable over the long term. A Saudi Arabia that depends on American weapons and American spare parts and American congressional
goodwill for its military operational capability cannot truly leverage its energy position against American interests when those interests conflict
with Saudi priorities because Washington can always threaten to turn off the military supply relationship as a counter pressure. But a Saudi Arabia
that is co-producing fifth generation fighters with Turkey, domestically manufacturing armed drones through technology transfer partnerships with
BAR and sheltered within a mutual defense architecture with Pakistan and Turkey modeled on NATO collective security principles that Saudi Arabia
has genuine strategic autonomy for perhaps the first time in its modern history. It can negotiate with Washington from a position of genuine independence rather than dependency. And
independence is what converts regional power into global leverage. Now, let us return to the UAE because understanding the specific trap that Abu Dhabi finds
itself in is essential to understanding why the title of this video names the fall of Abu Dhabi specifically and not the wider collapse of the Gulf Order
more generally. Saudi Arabia, for all the danger and turbulence of this crisis, is actually gaining strategic leverage within it. MBS is playing what
should be a weak hand with the instinctive aggression, opportunism, and long-term strategic vision that characterize his leadership at its most
effective. He's not trying to preserve the old order. He's building power within the new one that is replacing it.
The UAE is doing something fundamentally different, the Dubai model, the Abu Dhabi financial hub. The cosmopolitan economy built on tourism, technology,
finance, and logistics. The Abraham Accords architecture with its Israeli intelligence partnerships and Israeli business and technology relationships.
The American military partnership with its basing agreements and its Patriot batteries and its implicit guarantee.
the image of security and stability that is not merely a public relations asset but the foundational precondition for the confidence of the global capital and
the global talent that flows through the Emirates every single day. The UAE is trying to hold on to an existing order at the precise historical moment when
that order is being systematically demolished around it by forces too large and too powerful for any single small country to resist. And the painful irony
that must keep Emirati strategists awake in the deep hours of the night is that the very relationships that made the UAE so extraordinary, the American security
umbrella, the Israeli normalization, the pro-western positioning, the cosmopolitan openness are now making it the most exposed, most targeted, most
geopolitically vulnerable country in the Gulf. Iran is not randomly selecting its strike coordinates from some indifferent list of military targets. It is
systematically and deliberately attacking the most visible, most consequential symbols of the American aligned Israel normalized Arab modernity
that the UAE embodies more completely and more visibly than any other nation in the region. The Abraham Accords,
which the UAE celebrated as a strategic master stroke when they were signed, as a deal that simultaneously gave Abu Dhabi access to Israeli technology and
intelligence, opened commercial pathways to Israeli business ecosystems, signaled cos cosmopolitan modernity to global investors, and positioned the Emirates
at the center of a new American brokered regional architecture, now sit at the center of the UAE's strategic dilemma.
Because the accords have made the UAE a primary target in Iran's campaign to demonstrate that alignment with Israel carries an unacceptable cost. Every
Israeli business that opened a Dubai office, every Israeli intelligence contractor that established regional operations in Abu Dhabi, every American
military asset that flows through UAE territory is a point of Iranian targeting justification. And Saudi Arabia, which was supposed to be next in
line to join the accords, and whose participation would have converted the framework from a promising bilateral arrangement into a genuine regional realignment, has now made clear through
its actions and its diplomatic signaling that normalization with Israel under current conditions is not merely politically difficult. It is finished.
The Saudi Israeli deal that was supposed to be the capstone of the Abraham Accords architecture, the crowning achievement of American Middle Eastern diplomacy, was never delivered before
the war began. And in the environment the war has created with Arab public opinion inflamed by the devastation in Gaza and Iranian missiles visibly
striking Gulf infrastructure. It cannot now be delivered on any timeline that current political conditions allow for.
For the UAE, the loss of the Saudi normalization prospect is not merely a diplomatic disappointment. It is a fundamental strategic blow because the
value of the Emirati investment in the Abraham Accords was predicated substantially on Saudi Arabia eventually joining and transforming the framework
from a bilateral curiosity into a regional architecture that permanently restructured Middle Eastern power dynamics. Without Saudi Arabia, the
accords remain, but their strategic significance is diminished in ways that are difficult to compensate for. The UAE holds a position in an alliance
framework that is no longer capable of delivering the regional transformation it was designed to produce. And it holds that position while bearing the cost of
being Iran's most economically valuable target. Here is what makes the UAE's position genuinely existential rather than merely diplomatically
uncomfortable. Dubai is not merely a city or a national capital or commercial center. It is a system of confidence, a carefully constructed and meticulously
maintained signal to global capital and global talent that the Middle East contains one place that operates by global rules, that honors contracts and
property rights and judicial independence, that provides worldclass infrastructure and connectivity, that is safe and stable enough to build long-term businesses in, to base
regional headquarters in, to raise families in, to store and invest significant wealth in. Every element of that signal depends on the perception of
security. It is not the reality of security that matters in the first instance, though that matters too. It is the perception, the confidence that
tomorrow will be as stable as today, and that the rules by which business operates will not change catastrophically overnight. And every time an Iranian drone is intercepted in
the airspace above Dubai, every time emergency evacuations are ordered from terminals at the world's busiest international airport, every time debris
from intercepted missiles falls in the vicinity of the port facilities or the financial district or the residential towers where the expatriate professionals who keep Dubai's economy
running actually live. That perception takes a measurable, quantifiable, and in the long run irreversible hit. The economic architecture that this
perception of security has supported is staggering in its scale and its complexity. The Jebel Ali free zone alone hosts more than companies
from over countries making it one of the most concentrated clusters of international commercial activity anywhere in the world. The Dubai International Financial Center operates
under its own English common law jurisdiction with its own independent courts and it serves as the primary legal, regulatory and financial gateway
for Western companies operating across the Middle East, Africa and South Asia.
A combined catchment area encompassing more than two billion people in economic activity measured in the tens of trillions of dollars annually. The Abu
Dhabi Investment Authority manages an estimated billion dollars in global assets, positioning it among the four largest sovereign wealth funds in the world and making it a significant investor in equity markets, real estate,
infrastructure, and private equity across every major economy on Earth.
These are not abstract numbers. They are the physical embodiment of what years of visionary, disciplined, and sometimes ruthless national economic strategy has
built. And they are all, every single dimension of them, premised on an assumption of security stability that the war has now rendered uncertain in
ways that the UAE government cannot fully reassure its way out of. The multinational CFOs and regional directors and treasury managers at global corporations who headquartered
their Middle East operations in Dubai over the past two decades are not panicking. Panic is premature and panic is expensive and experienced operators
do not panic in response to elevated risk that has not yet fully materialized into actual business disruption. But they are having conversations that they were not having months ago.
Conversations about business continuity planning across multiple locations.
Conversations about distributed risk and whether concentrating so much regional operational infrastructure in a single location that is now demonstrabably
within the strike range of Iranian weapon systems represents an acceptable risk exposure for corporate boards and insurance underwriters and the institutional investors who scrutinize such decisions. Those conversations,
even when they do not immediately produce relocation announcements or dramatic structural changes, alter the calculus around new investment commitments, around long-term lease
decisions, around hiring plans, around which city gets proposed as the venue for the next regional conference or the next high netw worth client summit, and
a thousand cautious recalibrations, each individually modest and individually justifiable, accumulate over months and years into a structural shift that is
ultimately just as damaging to Dubai's model as any single catastrophic event would be. The final piece of this analysis, the piece that determines
whether what we are witnessing is a temporary disruption from which the UAE can recover or permanent historical turning point after which recovery to
the previous equilibrium becomes impossible is the question of American strategic credibility in the broader region. Because beneath every specific
development we have examined, beneath the Turkish drone deals and the Saudi Pakistani defense pact and the Hormuz closure and the collapse of the Abraham
Accords expansion and the targeting of UAE infrastructure, there is a single underlying reality that is driving all of it and that makes all of it
individually and collectively comprehensible. The American era of Middle Eastern strategic primacy is ending not because American military
capability has diminished in any absolute technical sense. American carrier strike groups remain the most powerful concentrations of naval air power ever assembled by any nation in
history. American air superiority technology remains unmatched by any competitor. But military dominance, as the experience of Iraq and Afghanistan
demonstrated with painful clarity over years, and as the current Gulf situation is demonstrating again with equal clarity, does not automatically
and reliably translate into political control or sustained strategic stability. America can bomb Iran. It demonstrated that it can destroy Iranian
military infrastructure and Iranian nuclear program facilities. What American military power cannot do is bomb its way to a stable Gulf. It cannot
bomb Iran into stopping drone attacks on the airports and refineries of American allies. It cannot bomb the Arab streets rage about Gaza into indifference. It
cannot bomb away the memory of the times American presidents weighed their domestic political calculations and their relationships with Israel and decided that Gulf Arab states would have
to absorb whatever consequences followed. and it cannot bomb away the fundamental conclusion that has now settled with the weight of lived experience behind it in the minds of
Gulf leaders. That being America's ally in a war against Iran is not security.
It is an invitation. It is a marker painted on your infrastructure that tells Iran where to aim. MBS understands this with a cold and unscentimental
clarity. He understands it because he has been given no choice but to understand it. The road from the Ebayik attack in to the strikes on Doha in
to the current devastation in the Gulf has been a systematic education in the limits of American protection delivered through concrete physical
consequences rather than theoretical diplomatic analysis. And the Turkish military alliance is the most publicly visible expression of the strategic
conclusion he has drawn from that education. He is building Saudi Arabia for the world that actually exists, not for the world that was supposed to exist
according to the assumptions of the postcold war American order that is now definitively past its peak. For the UAE,
a similar reinvention is urgently necessary, but the constraints are more severe. The options are more limited,
and the timeline for finding workable answers is shorter than any of the Amiradi leadership's planning assumptions would have anticipated. Abu Dhabi must find a way to reduce its
profile as an Iranian target without abandoning the Israeli and American relationships that define its strategic identity and sustain the economic model
that makes the UAE valuable and functional. It must find a way to remain relevant and protected within the emerging Saudi Turkish framework without
endorsing an ideological vision of political Islam and Erdogan style governance that conflicts fundamentally with its foundational political philosophy. It must find a way to
maintain global capital's confidence in Dubai as a safe and stable operational base while the security environment that confidence depends on is being
reconstructed in real time by forces the UAE cannot control and can barely influence. These are genuinely difficult tasks. The Emirates has accomplished
difficult things before. Things that the experts said could not be done. Building a global financial hub in a desert,
normalizing with Israel without domestic instability, maintaining geopolitical neutrality in a region defined by conflict. But the margin for error in the current environment is narrower than
it has ever been. The forces reshaping the landscape are larger and more powerful than anything the UAE has previously confronted. And the time
available for finding answers that work is being compressed by every week of continued conflict. The signal flares burning over Abu Dhabi right now are
illuminating something far larger than a single city's strategic dilemma or a single country's diplomatic challenge.
They are revealing the outline of the world that comes after American Middle Eastern primacy. a world organized not around a single dominant external power
security guarantees and political preferences but around multiple overlapping competing and sometimes cooperating regional partnerships each
seeking the strategic autonomy that comes from genuine options and genuine alternatives. Turkey built that autonomy through decades of careful fence sitting in institutional development and domestic defense industrialization.
Pakistan built it through its nuclear program and its cultivation of relationships on multiple sides of every major regional divide. Saudi Arabia
under MBS is building it now through the Turkish Defense Partnership, the Pakistani Mutual Defense Pact, the energy leverage that comes from
controlling the only meaningful alternative to Hormuz, and the financial resources that come from being the world's largest proven oil reserve holder at a moment when the world's oil
supply is under its most severe strain in half a century. The UAE bet everything on a different model. On the model that said alignment with America,
normalization with Israel, integration with Western financial markets, and the projection of cosmopolitan modernity were the most reliable routes to
permanent security and permanent prosperity in the modern world. That bet made enormous sense in the world that existed when it was made. In the world that exists now with Iranian missiles
landing on Emirati infrastructure and American security guarantees proving insufficient and Saudi Arabia pivoting toward a new security architecture that
the UAE cannot fully join without abandoning core aspects of its identity.
That bet is being stress tested by the hardest possible conditions. The outcome of that stress test, whether the UAE model proves resilient enough to survive
and adapt, or whether it proves to have been inseparably dependent on a geopolitical order that can no longer be sustained, will be one of the defining
stories of the next decade. and its implications for global energy markets,
for international finance, for the future of American strategic influence,
and for every government watching these events and drawing lessons about the reliability of American security guarantees and the risks of American aligned foreign policy extend far beyond
the Gulf and far beyond the immediate crisis. Watch carefully because what is being decided in the palaces, in the port facilities, and the defense deal
rooms of the Gulf right now will shape the architecture of the global order for a generation. But to understand the full gravity of what is unfolding, we need to
spend more time inside the economic mathematics of the Hormuz crisis.
Because the numbers tell a story that is more alarming than any political analysis can fully capture on its own.
Consider what $oil actually means at the level of household economics across the developed world. American consumers,
who already felt the political consequences of elevated gasoline prices during the post-pandemic inflation period, would face pump prices that make those previous highs look moderate by
comparison. European households which depend on heating, oil and gas for warmth through the winter months and which are already paying elevated energy
costs following the restructuring of European energy supply after the Russia Ukraine war would face an energy cost burden that consumes a dramatically
higher share of disposable income leaving less for everything else that drives consumer demand and economic growth. And in the developing world in
South Asia and Southeast Asia and subsaharan Africa where energy subsidies have already stretched government budgets to their limits and where the
populations most affected by inflation are also the most politically volatile.
The social consequences of a sustained oil price spike of this magnitude are genuinely difficult to predict and potentially very dangerous to existing
political arrangements. The shipping economics alone deserve close examination because global trade in the current era is built on an assumption of affordable maritime transport that a
hormuse's closure challenges at its foundation. The container shipping industry, which moves roughly % of the world's manufactured goods, was already
structurally disrupted by the Houthi attacks on Red Sea shipping that followed the Gaza conflict. Those attacks forced shipping companies to reroute vessels around the Cape of Good Hope at the southern tip of Africa,
adding days and thousands of miles to each voyage and dramatically increasing fuel costs, charter rates, and insurance premiums for every cargo crossing
between Asia and Europe. A full Hormuse's closure on top of that existing Red Sea disruption would mean that two of the world's three most critical maritime corridors were
simultaneously compromised, forcing an already stretched global shipping network into routing configurations that the current vessel fleet and the current
port infrastructure were never designed to handle at the required volumes. The insurance industry is telling a story that quantifies the market's fear in
ways that are impossible to dismiss as political exaggeration. War risk insurance premiums for vessels transiting the Persian Gulf have reached levels not seen since the Iran Iraq
tanker war of the s. Some insurers have simply withdrawn coverage for Gulf transits entirely, leaving shipping companies either to self-insure at
enormous financial risk or to refuse the routes altogether. When insurance markets price in this level of risk,
actual physical trade flows are affected immediately and materially because no responsible logistics manager books a cargo movement that cannot be adequately
insured regardless of how important that cargo might be to the receiving economy.
And now we need to talk about what all of this means specifically for the Abraham Accords and for the Israeli dimension of the UAE's strategic
predicament. Because the intersection between the economic crisis, the security crisis, and the normalization architecture is where the UAE's dilemma
becomes most acute and most difficult to resolve, the Abraham Accords gave the UAE three things that were each extraordinarily valuable in different
ways. First, they gave Abu Dhabi access to Israeli defense technology, particularly in cyber security, surveillance, and intelligence analysis.
Areas where Israeli firms like NSO group and others had developed capabilities that were genuinely worldleading and that the UAE needed for both domestic
security purposes and for maintaining the competitive intelligence picture of a country operating in a complex regional environment. Second, the
accords unlocked commercial and investment flows between Israeli technology companies and Emirati sovereign wealth funds and investment vehicles, giving Abu Dhabi preferential
access to Israeli innovation ecosystems at a time when Israeli technology startups were producing some of the most globally competitive companies and
artificial intelligence, agricultural technology, water management, and cyber security. Third, and perhaps most importantly for the long-term strategic
picture, the accords positioned the UAE as an indispensable broker between the Israeli and Arab worlds, a country that could talk to both sides, host meetings
between parties that could not formally meet elsewhere, facilitate business and intelligence cooperation that operated beneath the level of official diplomatic
recognition, and claim a unique and valuable convening role in the emerging new Middle East architecture. All three of those benefits are now under threat
simultaneously for reasons that are directly connected to the war and to Iran's systematic targeting of the UAE as the most visible embodiment of the
normalization framework. The cyber security and intelligence sharing relationship with Israel is a direct Iranian targeting justification. The
technology investment flows are being disrupted by the security environment and by the reluctance of Israeli entrepreneurs and executives to maintain routine business travel to a city that
is now absorbing Iranian strikes. and the convening role. The ability to serve as the neutral ground for diplomatic and commercial interactions that could not
happen elsewhere depends entirely on Abu Dhabi being perceived as genuinely neutral and genuinely safe. Conditions that are both now in question in ways
they were not before the war began. The UAE government's public posture through all of this has been carefully calibrated in ways that reveal just how difficult the navigation has become.
Emirati officials have described their country as being in a state of defense,
a formulation that is precise and deliberate. It is not the language of an ally fully committed to the American and Israeli war effort. It does not call for
escalation. It does not demand that the United States expand its military operations on the UAE's behalf. It is the language of a country trying to
maintain enough ambiguity to keep communication channels open with Iran even while absorbing Iranian attacks.
Trying to signal to Washington that Emirati patience has limits without triggering the kind of rupture in the American relationship that would leave the UAE without any security
architecture at all. and trying to maintain enough domestic calm that the Dubai confidence signal does not break down entirely before a new strategic
equilibrium can be found. This is extraordinarily difficult diplomacy being conducted under conditions of physical attack and economic disruption
by a leadership that has never previously had to manage a crisis of this magnitude and this complexity. The UCE under MBZ built its diplomatic
reputation on careful positioning on using financial resources and strategic patience to navigate difficult situations without being forced into
binary choices. But the current situation is generating binary pressures that financial resources and diplomatic patience cannot entirely dissolve. At
some point, the UAE will need to make choices about how deep its commitment to the Abraham Accords framework genuinely runs when that framework carries real
and escalating costs. about whether its relationship with Saudi Arabia takes precedence over its ideological opposition to the Turkish Islamist model
that MBS is now embracing as a security partner. About whether the American security guarantee is worth the exposure it creates, or whether some version of a
more independent, more genuinely neutral Emirati positioning offers a more sustainable path to the security and stability that the Dubai model requires.
Those are not comfortable choices. They do not have clean answers and the window within which they can be deliberated and resolved carefully without being forced
by events into premature and potentially irreversible decisions is narrower every day. This is the substance of the fall of Abu Dhabi. Not fires and evacuations,
though those are real and their economic consequences are severe. The fall of Abu Dhabi is the collapse of the strategic concept that Abu Dhabi represented. The
idea that an Arab state could fully normalize with Israel, comprehensively align with America, open itself without reservation to global capital and global culture and global governance standards,
and do all of this within the framework of a genuinely stable, genuinely secure, genuinely sustainable national project.
That idea is now being subjected to the most demanding real world test it has ever faced. And the outcome of that test will determine not just the future of
the IAEA, but the future of every argument in every capital in the developing world. That alignment with the American international order is a
reliable path to security and prosperity rather than a source of exposure and vulnerability. The world is watching Abu Dhabi right now. And the lesson it draws
from what it sees will shape the next chapter of global geopolitics in ways that will outlast this war, outlast this crisis, outlast even the specific
leaders and the specific decisions that brought us to this moment. That is the true stakes of the fall of Abu Dhabi.
And that is why whatever happens next in the Gulf, whatever settlement or escalation or prolonged stalemate follows the battles being fought today,
this moment will be remembered as the moment when the American Middle Eastern order definitively ended and the uncertain, more dangerous, more
multipolar world that replaces it definitively began. Stay analytical and never stop watching because in the burning skies above the Gulf, in the
decisions being made in real time by men who understand this moment is the hinge of history. The future of the entire global order is being written.
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Re: Part 2 Anti-Anti-Nazi Barbarian Hordes are Knocking Down
by admin » Tue Mar 17, 2026 1:35 am
Iran’s ‘Operation Epic Fury’ Just Locked on the USS Gerald Ford: The Secret Logistics Trap
Warfare Meet History
Mar 16, 2026
Operation Epic Fury has entered a high-stakes logistical phase as Iran’s Khatam al-Anbiya Central Headquarters officially designates the USS Gerald R. Ford’s support network as a "legitimate military target." By pivoting from direct kinetic engagement with the $13 billion carrier to a "logistics trap" strategy, Tehran is threatening the service centers and regional supply hubs—specifically those across the Red Sea—that keep the strike group operational during its extended deployment. This shift aims to exploit the carrier’s maintenance vulnerabilities and crew fatigue, effectively attempting to "strand" the vessel by severing the critical chain of fuel, munitions, and technical support required to sustain its Electromagnetic Aircraft Launch System (EMALS). As the IRGC warns there is "no way to escape this predicament," the focus of the naval war has transitioned from a battle of firepower to a brutal contest of logistical endurance.
Transcript
At in the morning on March th,
secondsthe US Naval Forces Central Command posted a single statement on the social media platform X. It said, "USS
secondsGerald R. Ford, CVNexperienced a fire that originated in the ship's main laundry spaces. The cause of the fire was not combat related and is contained.
secondsTwo sailors sustained non-lifethreatening injuries. The carrier, the statement concluded,
secondsremains fully operational." words at the end of that statement. Fully operational. The US Navy needed the
secondsworld to see those words. And here's why that matters more than almost anything else happening in this war right now. Because in the minutes
secondsbetween when the first images of smoke rising from the USS Gerald R. Ford went viral on Iranian state media and when that official statement was released,
secondsevery carrier strike group commander in the US Navy's central command theater had the same thought. The same cold,
secondsprecise, professional thought. Not was this Iran? The question they were asking was something far more specific,
secondssomething that keeps admirals awake in ways that missile strikes do not. And there is one item, one specific capability buried in an intelligence
minute, secondsassessment that has not been widely reported that changes the entire strategic picture of this war. We will get to it, but first you need to
minute, secondsunderstand the trap Iran is already springing because the fire was not the attack. The fire was the distraction.
minute, secondsSignal number one, the USS Gerald R.
minute, secondsboard. CVNis the most expensive warship ever constructed by any nation in the history of human civilization.
minute, secondsbillion, ft of nuclearpowered super carrier. She carries aircraft,
minute, secondssailors, and the combined striking power of a medium-sized air force. She transited the Suez Canal on March th,
minute, secondsentered the Red Sea on March th, and has been conducting FAE Super Hornet and F-C Lightning strike missions
minute, secondsagainst Iranian targets since the moment her flight deck aligned with the Iranian coastline. She departed Naval Station Norfol, Virginia on June th, And
minutesas of this week, Vice Chief of Naval Operations Admiral Kilby confirmed to a Senate committee that the Ford's deployment will be extended to
minutes, secondsapproximately months, meaning she's expected to remain at sea through May of this year. months. That is approaching the record for a continuous carrier deployment in the modern era.
minutes, secondsAnd it reveals something critical about the Pentagon's war planning that almost nobody is discussing. The Ford was not supposed to be in this fight this long.
minutes, secondsShe was supposed to be a deterrent, a show of force. the hammer you hold up to convince the other side not to swing first. She became the primary strike
minutes, secondsplatform. And now she's positioned in the Red Sea in a geography that Iran's military strategists have spent years studying, mapping, and arming against.
minutes, secondsAnd here is what Iran's state media force news published days ago in a statement that received almost no coverage in Western press. Logistics and
minutes, secondsservice centers enabling the USS Gerald Ford aircraft carrier to remain operational were considered to be targets. I want to read that again. not
minutes, secondsthe Ford herself, the logistics and service centers keeping her operational.
minutes, secondsThat is not a military boast. That is a doctrine statement and it describes a trap that was built before this war began. Here's what nobody is telling
minutes, secondsyou. The USS Gerald R. Ford is not self-sustaining indefinitely. No carrier is. The Ford needs fuel for her aircraft. She needs aviation ordinance,
minutes, secondsbombs, missiles, harpoon anti-hship missiles, AM rams, sidewinders. She needs food for sailors. She needs
minutes, secondsspare parts for aircraft conducting sustained combat operations. All of that arrives via one category of vessel that almost never makes the news because it
minutes, secondsis gray, unglamorous, and utterly indispensable, the combat stores ship. The USNS supply, hole number TOE
minutes, secondsis the replenishment vessel assigned to support the Ford strike group. The Ford has already conducted at least one documented replenishment at sea with the
minutes, secondssupply, and Iran knows this. Iran knows the name, the whole number, and the class of every US Navy auxiliary vessel operating in the Red Sea and the Arabian
minutes, secondsSea because that information is publicly available in Lloyd's register and every naval tracking database that exists. And here is the strategic center of the trap
minutes, secondsIran is setting. If you cannot sync the Ford, and Iran cannot, not today, you don't need to. You just need to make the Ford support chain so dangerous, so
minutes, secondscostly, so politically and logistically fraught that the Ford is effectively stranded. That is not speculation. That is what Iranian military doctrine
minutes, secondsexplicitly calls for. And three specific weapons in Iran's arsenal, two of which have already been partially deployed and one of which has not yet been fired in
minutes, secondsthis war, are designed precisely for this purpose. We'll get to the third weapon, the one that has not been fired yet, the one buried in that intelligence
minutes, secondsassessment in a moment. But first, let's understand the full scope of what Iran has already done to the waters around
minutes, secondsthe Ford. But here's the catch. And this catch is enormous.
minutes, secondsOn March th, US Central Command posted a brief statement on X that deserved three column headlines and instead got six paragraphs buried beneath stories
minutesabout oil prices. Sentcom said, "US forces eliminated multiple Iranian naval vessels March th, including mine
minutes, secondslayers near the Strait of Hormuz. mine laying ships eliminated. Let that number settle." The US Navy in a single
minutes, secondsday of operations destroyed vessels whose sole purpose was to scatter naval mines, devices that do not discriminate between Iranian speedboats and American
minutes, secondsdestroyers, between crude oil tankers and nuclear aircraft carriers into the approaches of the Straight of Hormuz.
minutes, secondsThe Pentagon followed that statement by saying there is currently no evidence of actual minds having been laid. But MIT professor Caitlyn Talmage, one of the
minutes, secondsmost rigorous analysts of Iranian naval strategy in the academic world, posted a correction on X within hours. She wrote,
minutes, seconds"Iran has thousands of small vessels that could potentially be used to lay mines. They could have been dispersed before the war started. Iran has
minutes, secondsextensive tunnel networks to protect and launch such vessels surreptitiously,
minutes, secondsincluding submarines and other submersibles useful for mine laying.
minutes, secondsThousands of small vessels, tunnel networks, submarines already deployed. The mine layers that Sentcom destroyed on March th were not
minutes, secondsIran's only mechanism for seeding the straight. They were the ones America could see. The ones the satellites and PA Poseidon patrol aircraft tracked on
minutes, secondsthe surface. The question is what is happening m below the surface in the confined shallow acoustically complex waters of the Persian Gulf where Iran
minutes, secondshas deployed more than Gadier class submarines. Each one displacing approximately tons. Each one optimized for exactly three missions.
minutes, secondsmine insertion, short-range torpedo attack, and special operations support in confined waters. And here's the operational implication that no one is fully articulating in the public debate.
minutes, secondsYou do not need to sink a super carrier with a submarine. You need to force the aircraft carriers PA Poseidon anti-ubmarine patrol aircraft and its
minutes, secondsMHR dipping sonar helicopters and its escorting destroyers entire sensor suites to spend their time hunting for those submarines instead of hunting for
minutes, secondsmissile launchers and minefields. That defensive effect, the compression of US decision cycles, the diversion of ISR assets away from offensive strike
minutes, secondsmissions and into defensive posture is worth more to tan than a single torpedo hit. That is Iran's doctrine. Sustained
minutes, secondsfriction, not a decisive blow. The slow bleed. The escort destroyer situation deserves your full attention right now.
minutes, secondsEach Arley Burke class guided missile destroyer escorting the Ford carries a Mark vertical launch system loaded with standard missile interceptors. SM
minutes, secondsSMSMplus evolved Sea Sparrow missiles and Tomahawk land attack missiles. Total interceptor loadout approximately missiles per destroyer.
minutes, secondsThe Heritage Foundation's index of US military strength, their th annual iteration, released just before
minutes, secondsthis war began and brutally validated by everything that has happened since,
minutes, secondsidentified magazine depth as a significant problem. Air defense in particular.
minutes, secondsRobert Greenway, director of the foundation's Allison Center for National Security, said this to reporters on March rd. Munitions for systems like
minutes, secondsthe Patriot Advanced Capability Three and Terminal High Altitude Area Defense Missile Defense Systems are going to be depleted. It's not an issue with the conflict with Iran in the Middle East.
minutes, secondsIt's an issue for everything else. And so, we're depleting our munitions at a faster pace. Let's run the math that the Heritage Foundation is describing. If
minutes, secondsthe IRGC launches a coordinated swarm of Shahed type drones plus a simultaneous salvo of Nor sea skimming cruise missiles against the
minutes, secondsFord strike group, the escorting destroyers must begin committing their interceptors per vessel. Two destroyers, total interceptors
minutes, secondsavailable against a drone plus missile composite attack. The math breaks down before the swarm is halfway through. The inner layer CRAM and
minutes, secondsfailins close in weapon systems then absorbs whatever penetrates and the Ford's own defenses take whatever gets past that. The Pentagon knows this. They
minutes, secondsare not ignorant of it. But the critical question is not whether one swarm attack can overwhelm the Ford's defenses today,
minutes, secondsright now with full magazines. The question is what the magazines look like in week seven, week week of an
minutes, seconds-month deployment in a sustained campaign that Iran is deliberately designing to drain those magazines over time, not in a single strike. Signal
minutes, secondsnumber two. Here's what nobody is telling you about China. And this is where the story gets exponentially more dangerous. Weeks before Operation Epic
minutes, secondsFury launched, intelligence reports began circulating in Washington and Tel Aviv about a specific arms transaction between the People's Republic of China
minutes, secondsand the Islamic Republic of Iran. A $billion arms package. The specific contents of that package reported by Global Defense Corp and analyzed
minutes, secondsextensively in the intelligence community include the following. CManti-hship missiles, six HQB
minutes, secondssurfaceto-air missile batteries, FNMAN portable air defense systems, Sunflower to kamicazi drones,
minutes, secondsthree HQB anti-bballistic missile systems, and HQanti-satellite missiles. The CMis what requires
minutes, secondsyour complete focus. It is the export designation for the Chinese YJfamily of weapons, what the People's Liberation
minutes, secondsArmy calls the carrier killer. Mach five to Mach zero. A range of to kilometers. A kilogram warhead.
minutes, secondsA flight profile that begins at medium altitude and then descends into a sekming terminal phase at supersonic speed, compressing radar reaction time for defending destroyers to seconds. Dr.
minutes, secondsAleandro Arduino of the Royal United Services Institute described it with precision. A game-changer missile system. It is a supersonic cruise
minutes, secondsmissile, meaning that it goes at normal missile speed. Then nearby the target, it increases the speed to supersonic, making it very difficult to intercept,
minutes, secondsespecially if you have a barrage mixed with drones. The system can create a serious threat, especially if there is an aircraft carrier nearby. Especially if there is an aircraft carrier nearby,
minutes, secondsthe USS Gerald R. Ford is nearby. And according to reporting from the CMmissiles have already been fired
minutes, secondsagainst US naval assets in this conflict. They were intercepted. SMand SMinterceptors neutralized the missiles and some experienced technical
minutes, secondsmalfunctions in flight. But here is the critical detail buried inside that operational success. Every SMand SM
minutes, secondsthat was fired to intercept a Chinese CMis now gone. The interceptors that stop the CMs cannot be reloaded at
minutes, secondssea. They must be restocked in port. And port means the ford must move. Moving the forward is in itself a strategic
minutes, secondsconcession. But here's the catch. The catch that reframes every previous sentence. China has not yet decided whether to provide Iran with the full capability the YJsystem represents.
minutes, secondsThe CMs that reportedly arrived represent the export variant. They are formidable. But there is a version of this story that is substantially darker.
minutesReports from Haritz and from the Oion Analytical Network describe Iran nearing a deal with China for the full specification YJnot the export
minutes, secondsdegraded CMbut the actual carrier killer that the People's Liberation Army Navy uses to threaten US carrier groups in the South China Sea. The full
minutes, secondsspecification YJhas a reported range exceeding km and terminal phase speeds above Mach If those missiles enter the conflict, they change the
minutes, secondsgeometry of where the USS Gerald R. Ford can safely operate. They push her further and further from the coastline,
minutes, secondsfurther from her strike range, further from her operational utility. At a certain distance, the Ford is no longer a combat asset. She is a very expensive,
minutes, secondsvery wellarmed ship that is too far away to matter. That is the carrier denial trap. And here is the intelligence detail buried in a separate assessment.
minutes, secondsThe one item, the one capability that we said at the beginning of this story we would return to that is not yet a fact, but is being tracked as a probability.
minutes, secondsIran has not yet fired the Gdder
minutesThis indigenous Iranian anti-ship cruise missile is in the km engagement class km from a dispersed mobile launcher somewhere on Iranian territory.
minutes, secondsThe Gdder can reach the USS Gerald R. Ford in the Red Sea without the launching vehicle ever moving within range of US strike aircraft. Iran is
minutes, secondsholding it. The IRGC is holding it. And the strategic question in every intelligence assessment being circulated in Washington today is why? Why hasn't
minutes, secondsit been fired? And the answer that analysts keep arriving at independently through different methodologies is the same. Because they're saving it. Because
minutes, secondsa Gdderd salvo against a US aircraft carrier is not a tactical move. It is a strategic escalation that changes the nature of this war permanently. And Iran
minutes, secondsis holding that card until the moment they believe they need to play it. Which means everything happening right now,
minutes, secondsthe drone attacks on Dubai, the CMsalvos against the destroyer screen, the mine layer deployments is the setup for something larger, not the main event,
minutes, secondsthe opening act. Signal number three.
minutes, secondLet's talk about the logistics trap in its full dimension. The USS Gerald R.
minutes, secondsFord departed Norfol, Virginia on June th, An -month deployment would have her home around May The Navy's vice chief of naval operations,
minutes, secondsAdmiral Kilby, confirmed that timeline to the Senate. But here is what that timeline means operationally. The Ford has been at sea for approximately
minutes, secondsmonths. months of sustained air operations. Sordy after sorty of FAE and F-C's dropping ordinance. aircraft working through their
minutes, secondsmaintenance cycles. sailors operating under continuous combat stress. Jet fuel is not the Ford's concern. She is nuclearpowered. Her
minutes, secondsreactors provide unlimited electrical power and propulsion indefinitely. But her aircraft are not nuclearpowered. Her aircraft burn JPaviation fuel. Her
minutes, secondsaircraft need ordinance. JDM guided bombs, AIM AM RAMs, A IMX side
minutes, secondswinders, AGMharm anti-radiation missiles. All of that arrives by USNS supply at replenishment at sea. And Iran
minutes, secondsexplicitly designated those supply vessels as targets. The strategic logic is elegant and devastating. You do not need to sink a$billion carrier. You
minutes, secondsneed to make the ships feeding that carrier afraid to approach it. Because if the USNS supply cannot safely conduct a replenishment at sea without fear of
minutes, secondsan Iranian nor sea skimming cruise missile, the Ford stops being a combat platform. She becomes a
minutes, secondsft waiting game. And here is the compounding factor. The US Navy's fleet is currently approximately half the size it was during the tanker wars of the
minutes, secondslate s. Half the size. The last time American naval forces escorted ships through the Persian Gulf against Iranian
minutes, secondsthreats, the US Navy had twice as many ships to do it with. Today, the total US naval presence in the Sentcom theater
minutes, secondsper sententcom's own public statements exceeds warships. That sounds formidable. Until you map those warships against simultaneous threats in
minutes, secondsthe Red Sea, the Arabian Sea, the Persian Gulf, the Gulf of Omen, and the Strait itself, warships across five theaters of operation is not a surplus.
minutes, secondsIt is a minimum. And there are more than commercial ships currently stranded in the Persian Gulf due to Iran's de facto blockade. ships. The fortunate
minutes, secondsanalysis that ran March th made the strategic arithmetic explicit. Getting all ships through the straight, even under naval escort, could take months,
minutes, secondspossibly years at any sustainable pace.
minutes, secondsAnd Jeff Curry, chief strategy officer at Carile Energy Pathways, told the economist something that crystallized the problem in one sentence. The cost of
minutes, secondsa single escort would exceed the value of the cargo it is trying to protect.
minutes, secondsRead that again. The logistics math for reopening the strait doesn't work financially. It may not work militarily either. And the Ford is at the center of
minutes, secondsthat equation. But here's the catch. The catch that introduces the political dimension you are not hearing enough about. Spain refused.
minutes, secondsIn an extraordinary diplomatic statement that drew trade threats from President Trump, Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez said no to war and denied the US
minutes, secondsmilitary access to its bases at ROA and Moran. Roa Naval station is not a ceremonial posting. It is the primary US
minutes, secondsNavy logistics hub for the eastern Atlantic and Mediterranean. It is where American warships refuel, restock ordinance, and rotate crews during
minutes, secondsdeployments that pass through the straight of Jibralar on their way to the Middle East. When Spain closes Roa and Moran, the maritime logistics pipeline
minutes, secondsfor US forces transiting between Norfolk and the Red Sea gets longer, slower, and more expensive. And Spain is not alone in this category. In late January,
minutes, secondsbefore the war officially started on February th, Gulf States reportedly blocked US military base and airspace access out of fear of Iranian
minutes, secondsretaliation. The operational consequence of that decision is that US strike aircraft flying operation epic fury missions are not launching from
minutes, secondsconvenient close-range bases in the Gulf. They are launching from carriers at sea from the Ford's deck in the Red Sea or from bases in Israel and Jordan
minutes, secondsoperating at the outer edges of their combat radius. F-E Strike Eagles at Muafak Salty Air Base in Jordan. F-
minutes, secondsRaptors at Ova Air Base in southern Israel. KCand KCrefueling
minutes, secondstankers at Bengorian airport. The US Air Force deployed them because it had to because the regional base infrastructure that American military planning has
minutes, secondsassumed for years is fractured. And fractured basing infrastructure puts more pressure on carrier aviation, which puts more pressure on the Ford, which
minutes, secondsmakes Iran's logistics trap more effective with every passing week.
minutes, secondsHere's what nobody's telling you about the underground dimension of this threat. On March th, footage was published showing something that Iranian
minutes, secondsstate media described as underground naval tunnel complexes. Not the fixed port facilities that US satellites track continuously. Not the surface naval
minutes, secondsbases that Sentcom has been striking since day one of Operation Epic Fury.
minutes, secondsHidden hardened underground tunnel complexes carved into the Iranian coastline stocked with fast attack boats, anti-hship missile launchers, and according to defense security analysts,
minutes, secondsthe Hadar This is the weapon that has not yet dominated a single western news cycle. The Hadar is a carbon
minutes, secondsfiber construction kn fast attack missile boat developed by the IRGC Navy knots. For reference, Arley Burke
minutes, secondsclass destroyers have a maximum speed of approximately knots. The fastest conventional surface combatants in the US Navy's inventory cannot catch a Hadar
minutes, secondson a direct pursuit course. These boats are armed with short-range anti-hship cruise missiles and designed for one mission. swarm attacks in the
minutes, secondsshallow, cluttered geography of the Persian Gulf, where their high speed and small radar cross-section make them extraordinarily difficult to target from a destroyer's fire control system in
minutes, secondstime. And they are sitting in those underground tunnels right now, waiting.
minutes, secondsIRGC footage showed dozens of them lined up inside hardened underground facilities that US cruise missiles and precision bunker penetrators cannot
minutes, secondseasily reach. Because unlike the nuclear facilities at Natans and Fordo, these tunnel complexes are not singlepoint targets with known coordinates. They are
minutes, secondsdispersed, distributed, and designed to survive the opening phases of a US air campaign. Admiral Brad Cooper, Sentcom
minutes, secondscommander, said US forces achieved total air and sea dominance over Iran within days. That may be true of conventional naval forces. US forces have sunk or
minutes, secondsdestroyed more than Iranian naval vessels, including Iran's Shahid Beari drone carrier, which was comparable in size to a World War II era aircraft
minutes, secondscarrier. But a drone carrier that is visible on satellite imagery can be targeted and sunk. had fast
minutes, secondsattack boats in underground tunnels cannot. And here is the operational nightmare they represent. If the USS Gerald R. Ford moves from the Red Sea
minutes, secondsinto the Arabian Sea, she moves within range. If she moves from the Arabian Sea toward the straight of Hormuz, which is what Trump is publicly demanding, what
minutes, secondsthe escorted tanker convoy strategy requires, she moves into the Persian Gulf, where those Hadar ands can be sorted from tunnel complexes along the
minutes, secondsnorthern coast of the straight in minutes, not hours, minutes. A knot boat covers nautical miles faster than a destroyer's fire control system can
minutes, secondstrack and engage multiple simultaneous contacts in a contested mind-threatened shallow water environment. That is the tactical dimension of the logistics trap
minutes, secondsIran has constructed. Let's bring the full picture together because individually each of these elements is serious. Together they constitute
minutes, secondssomething that military strategists call an anti-access area denial architecture.
minutes, secondsAin the doctrine shorthand. And what makes Iran's AA architecture uniquely dangerous is the specific design principle at its core. Army
minutes, secondsrecognition's comprehensive analysis released this month described it with surgical precision.
minutes, secondsIran's defensive design for a clash with the United States is built less around winning decisive naval or air battles and more around manufacturing sustained friction at every layer of the campaign.
minutes, secondsThe intent is to pull US forces into a dense overlapping threat environment where time, interceptor inventories, and political tolerance become the real
minutes, secondscenters of gravity. time interceptor inventories political tolerance. Those are Iran's three weapons against the
minutes, secondsFord. Not the college FARS anti-hship ballistic missile with its electrooptical seeker that can track a moving carrier at terminal phase
minutes, secondsdescent. Not the Godd sitting unfired in its mobile launcher somewhere in the Iranian interior. Those are instruments of escalation that Iran is
minutes, secondsrationing carefully. The real weapons against the forward are time. Nine months at sea, depleted crews, maintenance backlogs, and aircraft,
minutes, secondsinterceptor inventories, SM series missiles per destroyer being consumed in every engagement against drone swarms in
minutes, secondsCMsalvos unable to be restocked without returning. Deport and political tolerance, the domestic American calculation about how long this campaign
minutes, secondscontinues, shaped by every gas price surge at the pump, every S&P point lost, every stranded tanker unable to pass through the straight of Hormuz.
minutesIran has built a machine to drain all three simultaneously. And the Ford is at the center of that machine. That is what
minutes, secondsFars News meant when it said logistics and service centers enabling the USS Gerald Ford to remain operational were being considered as targets. They're not
minutes, secondsplanning to sink her. They are planning to strand her. Signal number four. And this one takes the story somewhere very few analysts are willing to go publicly.
minutes, secondsThe fire aboard the Ford on March th. The Navy said it was not combat related.
minutes, secondsa fire in the laundry spaces, two injured sailors, carrier fully operational, and that is almost certainly the true account. But within
minutes, secondsthe minutes between the first images going viral and the official statement,
minutes, secondsIranian state media and IRGC affiliated social media channels ran a coordinated narrative claiming that a missile had struck the Ford, that it was on fire,
minutes, secondsthat US forces were covering up damage to the world's most powerful warship. It was false. The evidence is clear that the fire was accidental. But here is the
minutes, secondsstrategic value of that false narrative to Iran's war effort. It is a test. Iran was running a test. They were measuring how fast the disinformation spread, how
minutes, secondslong it took the US Navy to respond with a denial, what the reaction was in commodity markets, did oil spike, did shipping insurance rates move in the
minutes, secondsminutes after the story went viral, and whether they could use information warfare as a weapon against the Ford's operational credibility. Because here is
minutes, secondswhat actually strands a carrier before a single missile is fired. the loss of confidence by allied governments,
minutes, secondscommercial shipping companies, and insurance underwriters that the carrier's protective envelope is intact.
minutes, secondsIf shipping companies believe, even incorrectly, that the USS Gerald R. Ford took a hit on March th, their risk
minutes, secondsmodels update. Their insurance rates go up, their willingness to transit the areas where the Ford is operating goes down, and that is a victory for Iran that costs nothing. No missile expended,
minutes, secondsno ship exposed, just a viral narrative and minutes of strategic ambiguity.
minutes, secondsThat is the information layer of the logistics trap. And it is running continuously right now in parallel with every physical military action in this
minutes, secondsconflict. Here is where we are at this moment, Monday, March th, The USS Gerald R. Ford is in the Red Sea,
minutes, secondsfully operational. That part of the official statement is true. Her airwing is flying combat missions against Iranian targets. Her escort destroyers are patrolling their assigned sectors.
minutes, secondsHer Arley Burke class companions are cycling their Eegis radar systems through continuous threat tracking. USNS supply is conducting replenishment runs.
minutes, secondsEverything the Navy says about the Ford's operational status is accurate.
minutes, secondsand the entire Iranian military establishment from IRGC Navy commanders and hardened coastal facilities to the new Supreme Leader Motab in his
minutes, secondsundisclosed bunker northeast of Thran is watching every publicly visible piece of the Ford's positioning in real time via commercial satellite imagery via
minutes, secondsautomatic identification system tracking of naval auxiliaries via the open source naval tracking communities that broadcast ship positions to the global
minutes, secondsinternet they are updating their targeting solutions they are watching the USNS applies replenishment cycles They're calibrating the timing of the
minutes, secondsnext drone swarm against the Ford's escort destroyer's known interceptor depletion rates. And they are holding the gat waiting for the geometry to
minutes, secondsbe right, waiting for the ford to move closer, waiting for the magazines to be lighter. There are two futures available in the next to hours. Two paths,
minutes, secondsexactly two. The first is the one where the Ford's presence in the Red Sea constitutes sufficient political and military deterrence. where the
minutes, secondscombination of US air strikes on Iranian infrastructure, the sinking of Iranian naval vessels, and the threatened deployment of a third carrier group, the USS George HW Bush, CVN
minutes, secondscurrently to days from the theater, creates enough cumulative pressure that Iran agrees to a humanitarian or commercial ceasefire in the Straight of Hormuz, where the back
minutes, secondschannel that Iranian intelligence opened on March th, the message sent to Washington saying Thrron is willing to talk, gets followed up, where the
minutes, secondsplus Gadier submarines stay in their patrol zones without deploying their mines. Where the Hadar ands stay in their underground tunnels. Where the Gutter stays on its launcher.
minutes, secondsWhere the Ford's magazines are restocked, her escorts rotate, and the logistical trap is diffused before it fully closes. That is path one. It
minutes, secondsrequires Iran to accept that its asymmetric AAD strategy is not going to prevent the Ford from sustaining operations indefinitely. That the
minutes, secondseconomic cost of the Hormuz blockade is destroying its own allies tolerance.
minutes, secondsThat Moshtabaka Kame's hardline instinct to exhaust the American logistics chain is going to exhaust Iran's strategic reserve first. There is evidence that
minutes, secondsIraqi's faction in Thran understands this math. The back channel exists. The door is not locked. The second path is the one where Iran springs the full trap, where the gutter is fired,
minutes, secondswhere the Kadier submarines see the approaches to the straight with the first mines from Iran's estimated to unit stockpile. Where a
minutes, secondsHadar and missile boats pour out of their underground tunnels simultaneously, traveling at knots in a distributed swarm attack on
minutes, secondswhatever vessel is nearest. where the CMSalvo comes not as a single test,
minutes, secondsbut as a coordinated missile barrage timed to coincide with a Shahed drone attack on the Ford's escort
minutes, secondsscreen, testing the interceptor limit per destroyer in real time. That scenario does not guarantee the Ford is sunk. US integrated fire control, the
minutes, secondscombination of Aegis radar, SMinterceptors, SMterminal defense missiles, EAG Growler electronic
minutes, secondswarfare jamming, FAfighters on combat air patrol is formidable. It may hold.
minutes, secondsIt may hold completely, but every interceptor fired in that engagement is gone. Every SMthat takes down a CM
minutes, secondsis a depleted magazine. Every SMthat kills a sekming nor cruise missile is a gap in the defensive envelope. And after that engagement, before the magazines
minutes, secondscan be restocked, is the window Iran is calculating for. The window when the Ford is most vulnerable. The window when the Gdderd that has never been fired
minutes, secondsin this conflict could reach out from a mobile launcher somewhere in the Iranian interior and test whether the Ford's remaining defensive screen is thick
minutes, secondsenough to stop a missile traveling at Mach from a thousand kilometers away before American strike aircraft can even find the launcher. That is the second
minutes, secondspath. It is not certain. Iran's military has taken severe losses. ships sunk,
minutes, secondstargets struck, natans under rubble. But doctrine is doctrine. And Iran's doctrine says, "Don't fight the war America wants to fight. Fight the war that drains America's magazines,
minutes, secondsstrains America's logistics, tests America's political tolerance, and makes the cost of sustaining the Ford's presence exceed the strategic benefit of
minutes, secondsmaintaining it. The trap is already partially closed. The question is whether the ford moves deeper into the Persian Gulf before it springs
minutes, secondscompletely or whether someone somewhere in a back channel that still has a functioning line finds the off-ramp before the geometry reaches the point of
minutes, secondsno return. The USS Gerald R. Ford is in the Red Sea. She is fully operational.
minutes, secondswords. And the next move she makes toward the Persian Gulf or toward the port of Jedha for resupply will tell every analyst watching this theater
minutes, secondsexactly which of those two futures is coming. Watch the AIS transponder. Watch USNS supplies position. Watch whether
minutes, secondsthe Bush moves up its deployment timeline. And watch whether the Gdderd disappears from its last known coordinates. Because in this war, the
minutes, secondsweapons that have not yet been fired tell you more about what happens next than the ones that have. The clock is running, the magazine depth is declining, and the logistics trap is closing one nautical mile at a time.
Warfare Meet History
Mar 16, 2026
Operation Epic Fury has entered a high-stakes logistical phase as Iran’s Khatam al-Anbiya Central Headquarters officially designates the USS Gerald R. Ford’s support network as a "legitimate military target." By pivoting from direct kinetic engagement with the $13 billion carrier to a "logistics trap" strategy, Tehran is threatening the service centers and regional supply hubs—specifically those across the Red Sea—that keep the strike group operational during its extended deployment. This shift aims to exploit the carrier’s maintenance vulnerabilities and crew fatigue, effectively attempting to "strand" the vessel by severing the critical chain of fuel, munitions, and technical support required to sustain its Electromagnetic Aircraft Launch System (EMALS). As the IRGC warns there is "no way to escape this predicament," the focus of the naval war has transitioned from a battle of firepower to a brutal contest of logistical endurance.
Transcript
At in the morning on March th,
secondsthe US Naval Forces Central Command posted a single statement on the social media platform X. It said, "USS
secondsGerald R. Ford, CVNexperienced a fire that originated in the ship's main laundry spaces. The cause of the fire was not combat related and is contained.
secondsTwo sailors sustained non-lifethreatening injuries. The carrier, the statement concluded,
secondsremains fully operational." words at the end of that statement. Fully operational. The US Navy needed the
secondsworld to see those words. And here's why that matters more than almost anything else happening in this war right now. Because in the minutes
secondsbetween when the first images of smoke rising from the USS Gerald R. Ford went viral on Iranian state media and when that official statement was released,
secondsevery carrier strike group commander in the US Navy's central command theater had the same thought. The same cold,
secondsprecise, professional thought. Not was this Iran? The question they were asking was something far more specific,
secondssomething that keeps admirals awake in ways that missile strikes do not. And there is one item, one specific capability buried in an intelligence
minute, secondsassessment that has not been widely reported that changes the entire strategic picture of this war. We will get to it, but first you need to
minute, secondsunderstand the trap Iran is already springing because the fire was not the attack. The fire was the distraction.
minute, secondsSignal number one, the USS Gerald R.
minute, secondsboard. CVNis the most expensive warship ever constructed by any nation in the history of human civilization.
minute, secondsbillion, ft of nuclearpowered super carrier. She carries aircraft,
minute, secondssailors, and the combined striking power of a medium-sized air force. She transited the Suez Canal on March th,
minute, secondsentered the Red Sea on March th, and has been conducting FAE Super Hornet and F-C Lightning strike missions
minute, secondsagainst Iranian targets since the moment her flight deck aligned with the Iranian coastline. She departed Naval Station Norfol, Virginia on June th, And
minutesas of this week, Vice Chief of Naval Operations Admiral Kilby confirmed to a Senate committee that the Ford's deployment will be extended to
minutes, secondsapproximately months, meaning she's expected to remain at sea through May of this year. months. That is approaching the record for a continuous carrier deployment in the modern era.
minutes, secondsAnd it reveals something critical about the Pentagon's war planning that almost nobody is discussing. The Ford was not supposed to be in this fight this long.
minutes, secondsShe was supposed to be a deterrent, a show of force. the hammer you hold up to convince the other side not to swing first. She became the primary strike
minutes, secondsplatform. And now she's positioned in the Red Sea in a geography that Iran's military strategists have spent years studying, mapping, and arming against.
minutes, secondsAnd here is what Iran's state media force news published days ago in a statement that received almost no coverage in Western press. Logistics and
minutes, secondsservice centers enabling the USS Gerald Ford aircraft carrier to remain operational were considered to be targets. I want to read that again. not
minutes, secondsthe Ford herself, the logistics and service centers keeping her operational.
minutes, secondsThat is not a military boast. That is a doctrine statement and it describes a trap that was built before this war began. Here's what nobody is telling
minutes, secondsyou. The USS Gerald R. Ford is not self-sustaining indefinitely. No carrier is. The Ford needs fuel for her aircraft. She needs aviation ordinance,
minutes, secondsbombs, missiles, harpoon anti-hship missiles, AM rams, sidewinders. She needs food for sailors. She needs
minutes, secondsspare parts for aircraft conducting sustained combat operations. All of that arrives via one category of vessel that almost never makes the news because it
minutes, secondsis gray, unglamorous, and utterly indispensable, the combat stores ship. The USNS supply, hole number TOE
minutes, secondsis the replenishment vessel assigned to support the Ford strike group. The Ford has already conducted at least one documented replenishment at sea with the
minutes, secondssupply, and Iran knows this. Iran knows the name, the whole number, and the class of every US Navy auxiliary vessel operating in the Red Sea and the Arabian
minutes, secondsSea because that information is publicly available in Lloyd's register and every naval tracking database that exists. And here is the strategic center of the trap
minutes, secondsIran is setting. If you cannot sync the Ford, and Iran cannot, not today, you don't need to. You just need to make the Ford support chain so dangerous, so
minutes, secondscostly, so politically and logistically fraught that the Ford is effectively stranded. That is not speculation. That is what Iranian military doctrine
minutes, secondsexplicitly calls for. And three specific weapons in Iran's arsenal, two of which have already been partially deployed and one of which has not yet been fired in
minutes, secondsthis war, are designed precisely for this purpose. We'll get to the third weapon, the one that has not been fired yet, the one buried in that intelligence
minutes, secondsassessment in a moment. But first, let's understand the full scope of what Iran has already done to the waters around
minutes, secondsthe Ford. But here's the catch. And this catch is enormous.
minutes, secondsOn March th, US Central Command posted a brief statement on X that deserved three column headlines and instead got six paragraphs buried beneath stories
minutesabout oil prices. Sentcom said, "US forces eliminated multiple Iranian naval vessels March th, including mine
minutes, secondslayers near the Strait of Hormuz. mine laying ships eliminated. Let that number settle." The US Navy in a single
minutes, secondsday of operations destroyed vessels whose sole purpose was to scatter naval mines, devices that do not discriminate between Iranian speedboats and American
minutes, secondsdestroyers, between crude oil tankers and nuclear aircraft carriers into the approaches of the Straight of Hormuz.
minutes, secondsThe Pentagon followed that statement by saying there is currently no evidence of actual minds having been laid. But MIT professor Caitlyn Talmage, one of the
minutes, secondsmost rigorous analysts of Iranian naval strategy in the academic world, posted a correction on X within hours. She wrote,
minutes, seconds"Iran has thousands of small vessels that could potentially be used to lay mines. They could have been dispersed before the war started. Iran has
minutes, secondsextensive tunnel networks to protect and launch such vessels surreptitiously,
minutes, secondsincluding submarines and other submersibles useful for mine laying.
minutes, secondsThousands of small vessels, tunnel networks, submarines already deployed. The mine layers that Sentcom destroyed on March th were not
minutes, secondsIran's only mechanism for seeding the straight. They were the ones America could see. The ones the satellites and PA Poseidon patrol aircraft tracked on
minutes, secondsthe surface. The question is what is happening m below the surface in the confined shallow acoustically complex waters of the Persian Gulf where Iran
minutes, secondshas deployed more than Gadier class submarines. Each one displacing approximately tons. Each one optimized for exactly three missions.
minutes, secondsmine insertion, short-range torpedo attack, and special operations support in confined waters. And here's the operational implication that no one is fully articulating in the public debate.
minutes, secondsYou do not need to sink a super carrier with a submarine. You need to force the aircraft carriers PA Poseidon anti-ubmarine patrol aircraft and its
minutes, secondsMHR dipping sonar helicopters and its escorting destroyers entire sensor suites to spend their time hunting for those submarines instead of hunting for
minutes, secondsmissile launchers and minefields. That defensive effect, the compression of US decision cycles, the diversion of ISR assets away from offensive strike
minutes, secondsmissions and into defensive posture is worth more to tan than a single torpedo hit. That is Iran's doctrine. Sustained
minutes, secondsfriction, not a decisive blow. The slow bleed. The escort destroyer situation deserves your full attention right now.
minutes, secondsEach Arley Burke class guided missile destroyer escorting the Ford carries a Mark vertical launch system loaded with standard missile interceptors. SM
minutes, secondsSMSMplus evolved Sea Sparrow missiles and Tomahawk land attack missiles. Total interceptor loadout approximately missiles per destroyer.
minutes, secondsThe Heritage Foundation's index of US military strength, their th annual iteration, released just before
minutes, secondsthis war began and brutally validated by everything that has happened since,
minutes, secondsidentified magazine depth as a significant problem. Air defense in particular.
minutes, secondsRobert Greenway, director of the foundation's Allison Center for National Security, said this to reporters on March rd. Munitions for systems like
minutes, secondsthe Patriot Advanced Capability Three and Terminal High Altitude Area Defense Missile Defense Systems are going to be depleted. It's not an issue with the conflict with Iran in the Middle East.
minutes, secondsIt's an issue for everything else. And so, we're depleting our munitions at a faster pace. Let's run the math that the Heritage Foundation is describing. If
minutes, secondsthe IRGC launches a coordinated swarm of Shahed type drones plus a simultaneous salvo of Nor sea skimming cruise missiles against the
minutes, secondsFord strike group, the escorting destroyers must begin committing their interceptors per vessel. Two destroyers, total interceptors
minutes, secondsavailable against a drone plus missile composite attack. The math breaks down before the swarm is halfway through. The inner layer CRAM and
minutes, secondsfailins close in weapon systems then absorbs whatever penetrates and the Ford's own defenses take whatever gets past that. The Pentagon knows this. They
minutes, secondsare not ignorant of it. But the critical question is not whether one swarm attack can overwhelm the Ford's defenses today,
minutes, secondsright now with full magazines. The question is what the magazines look like in week seven, week week of an
minutes, seconds-month deployment in a sustained campaign that Iran is deliberately designing to drain those magazines over time, not in a single strike. Signal
minutes, secondsnumber two. Here's what nobody is telling you about China. And this is where the story gets exponentially more dangerous. Weeks before Operation Epic
minutes, secondsFury launched, intelligence reports began circulating in Washington and Tel Aviv about a specific arms transaction between the People's Republic of China
minutes, secondsand the Islamic Republic of Iran. A $billion arms package. The specific contents of that package reported by Global Defense Corp and analyzed
minutes, secondsextensively in the intelligence community include the following. CManti-hship missiles, six HQB
minutes, secondssurfaceto-air missile batteries, FNMAN portable air defense systems, Sunflower to kamicazi drones,
minutes, secondsthree HQB anti-bballistic missile systems, and HQanti-satellite missiles. The CMis what requires
minutes, secondsyour complete focus. It is the export designation for the Chinese YJfamily of weapons, what the People's Liberation
minutes, secondsArmy calls the carrier killer. Mach five to Mach zero. A range of to kilometers. A kilogram warhead.
minutes, secondsA flight profile that begins at medium altitude and then descends into a sekming terminal phase at supersonic speed, compressing radar reaction time for defending destroyers to seconds. Dr.
minutes, secondsAleandro Arduino of the Royal United Services Institute described it with precision. A game-changer missile system. It is a supersonic cruise
minutes, secondsmissile, meaning that it goes at normal missile speed. Then nearby the target, it increases the speed to supersonic, making it very difficult to intercept,
minutes, secondsespecially if you have a barrage mixed with drones. The system can create a serious threat, especially if there is an aircraft carrier nearby. Especially if there is an aircraft carrier nearby,
minutes, secondsthe USS Gerald R. Ford is nearby. And according to reporting from the CMmissiles have already been fired
minutes, secondsagainst US naval assets in this conflict. They were intercepted. SMand SMinterceptors neutralized the missiles and some experienced technical
minutes, secondsmalfunctions in flight. But here is the critical detail buried inside that operational success. Every SMand SM
minutes, secondsthat was fired to intercept a Chinese CMis now gone. The interceptors that stop the CMs cannot be reloaded at
minutes, secondssea. They must be restocked in port. And port means the ford must move. Moving the forward is in itself a strategic
minutes, secondsconcession. But here's the catch. The catch that reframes every previous sentence. China has not yet decided whether to provide Iran with the full capability the YJsystem represents.
minutes, secondsThe CMs that reportedly arrived represent the export variant. They are formidable. But there is a version of this story that is substantially darker.
minutesReports from Haritz and from the Oion Analytical Network describe Iran nearing a deal with China for the full specification YJnot the export
minutes, secondsdegraded CMbut the actual carrier killer that the People's Liberation Army Navy uses to threaten US carrier groups in the South China Sea. The full
minutes, secondsspecification YJhas a reported range exceeding km and terminal phase speeds above Mach If those missiles enter the conflict, they change the
minutes, secondsgeometry of where the USS Gerald R. Ford can safely operate. They push her further and further from the coastline,
minutes, secondsfurther from her strike range, further from her operational utility. At a certain distance, the Ford is no longer a combat asset. She is a very expensive,
minutes, secondsvery wellarmed ship that is too far away to matter. That is the carrier denial trap. And here is the intelligence detail buried in a separate assessment.
minutes, secondsThe one item, the one capability that we said at the beginning of this story we would return to that is not yet a fact, but is being tracked as a probability.
minutes, secondsIran has not yet fired the Gdder
minutesThis indigenous Iranian anti-ship cruise missile is in the km engagement class km from a dispersed mobile launcher somewhere on Iranian territory.
minutes, secondsThe Gdder can reach the USS Gerald R. Ford in the Red Sea without the launching vehicle ever moving within range of US strike aircraft. Iran is
minutes, secondsholding it. The IRGC is holding it. And the strategic question in every intelligence assessment being circulated in Washington today is why? Why hasn't
minutes, secondsit been fired? And the answer that analysts keep arriving at independently through different methodologies is the same. Because they're saving it. Because
minutes, secondsa Gdderd salvo against a US aircraft carrier is not a tactical move. It is a strategic escalation that changes the nature of this war permanently. And Iran
minutes, secondsis holding that card until the moment they believe they need to play it. Which means everything happening right now,
minutes, secondsthe drone attacks on Dubai, the CMsalvos against the destroyer screen, the mine layer deployments is the setup for something larger, not the main event,
minutes, secondsthe opening act. Signal number three.
minutes, secondLet's talk about the logistics trap in its full dimension. The USS Gerald R.
minutes, secondsFord departed Norfol, Virginia on June th, An -month deployment would have her home around May The Navy's vice chief of naval operations,
minutes, secondsAdmiral Kilby, confirmed that timeline to the Senate. But here is what that timeline means operationally. The Ford has been at sea for approximately
minutes, secondsmonths. months of sustained air operations. Sordy after sorty of FAE and F-C's dropping ordinance. aircraft working through their
minutes, secondsmaintenance cycles. sailors operating under continuous combat stress. Jet fuel is not the Ford's concern. She is nuclearpowered. Her
minutes, secondsreactors provide unlimited electrical power and propulsion indefinitely. But her aircraft are not nuclearpowered. Her aircraft burn JPaviation fuel. Her
minutes, secondsaircraft need ordinance. JDM guided bombs, AIM AM RAMs, A IMX side
minutes, secondswinders, AGMharm anti-radiation missiles. All of that arrives by USNS supply at replenishment at sea. And Iran
minutes, secondsexplicitly designated those supply vessels as targets. The strategic logic is elegant and devastating. You do not need to sink a$billion carrier. You
minutes, secondsneed to make the ships feeding that carrier afraid to approach it. Because if the USNS supply cannot safely conduct a replenishment at sea without fear of
minutes, secondsan Iranian nor sea skimming cruise missile, the Ford stops being a combat platform. She becomes a
minutes, secondsft waiting game. And here is the compounding factor. The US Navy's fleet is currently approximately half the size it was during the tanker wars of the
minutes, secondslate s. Half the size. The last time American naval forces escorted ships through the Persian Gulf against Iranian
minutes, secondsthreats, the US Navy had twice as many ships to do it with. Today, the total US naval presence in the Sentcom theater
minutes, secondsper sententcom's own public statements exceeds warships. That sounds formidable. Until you map those warships against simultaneous threats in
minutes, secondsthe Red Sea, the Arabian Sea, the Persian Gulf, the Gulf of Omen, and the Strait itself, warships across five theaters of operation is not a surplus.
minutes, secondsIt is a minimum. And there are more than commercial ships currently stranded in the Persian Gulf due to Iran's de facto blockade. ships. The fortunate
minutes, secondsanalysis that ran March th made the strategic arithmetic explicit. Getting all ships through the straight, even under naval escort, could take months,
minutes, secondspossibly years at any sustainable pace.
minutes, secondsAnd Jeff Curry, chief strategy officer at Carile Energy Pathways, told the economist something that crystallized the problem in one sentence. The cost of
minutes, secondsa single escort would exceed the value of the cargo it is trying to protect.
minutes, secondsRead that again. The logistics math for reopening the strait doesn't work financially. It may not work militarily either. And the Ford is at the center of
minutes, secondsthat equation. But here's the catch. The catch that introduces the political dimension you are not hearing enough about. Spain refused.
minutes, secondsIn an extraordinary diplomatic statement that drew trade threats from President Trump, Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez said no to war and denied the US
minutes, secondsmilitary access to its bases at ROA and Moran. Roa Naval station is not a ceremonial posting. It is the primary US
minutes, secondsNavy logistics hub for the eastern Atlantic and Mediterranean. It is where American warships refuel, restock ordinance, and rotate crews during
minutes, secondsdeployments that pass through the straight of Jibralar on their way to the Middle East. When Spain closes Roa and Moran, the maritime logistics pipeline
minutes, secondsfor US forces transiting between Norfolk and the Red Sea gets longer, slower, and more expensive. And Spain is not alone in this category. In late January,
minutes, secondsbefore the war officially started on February th, Gulf States reportedly blocked US military base and airspace access out of fear of Iranian
minutes, secondsretaliation. The operational consequence of that decision is that US strike aircraft flying operation epic fury missions are not launching from
minutes, secondsconvenient close-range bases in the Gulf. They are launching from carriers at sea from the Ford's deck in the Red Sea or from bases in Israel and Jordan
minutes, secondsoperating at the outer edges of their combat radius. F-E Strike Eagles at Muafak Salty Air Base in Jordan. F-
minutes, secondsRaptors at Ova Air Base in southern Israel. KCand KCrefueling
minutes, secondstankers at Bengorian airport. The US Air Force deployed them because it had to because the regional base infrastructure that American military planning has
minutes, secondsassumed for years is fractured. And fractured basing infrastructure puts more pressure on carrier aviation, which puts more pressure on the Ford, which
minutes, secondsmakes Iran's logistics trap more effective with every passing week.
minutes, secondsHere's what nobody's telling you about the underground dimension of this threat. On March th, footage was published showing something that Iranian
minutes, secondsstate media described as underground naval tunnel complexes. Not the fixed port facilities that US satellites track continuously. Not the surface naval
minutes, secondsbases that Sentcom has been striking since day one of Operation Epic Fury.
minutes, secondsHidden hardened underground tunnel complexes carved into the Iranian coastline stocked with fast attack boats, anti-hship missile launchers, and according to defense security analysts,
minutes, secondsthe Hadar This is the weapon that has not yet dominated a single western news cycle. The Hadar is a carbon
minutes, secondsfiber construction kn fast attack missile boat developed by the IRGC Navy knots. For reference, Arley Burke
minutes, secondsclass destroyers have a maximum speed of approximately knots. The fastest conventional surface combatants in the US Navy's inventory cannot catch a Hadar
minutes, secondson a direct pursuit course. These boats are armed with short-range anti-hship cruise missiles and designed for one mission. swarm attacks in the
minutes, secondsshallow, cluttered geography of the Persian Gulf, where their high speed and small radar cross-section make them extraordinarily difficult to target from a destroyer's fire control system in
minutes, secondstime. And they are sitting in those underground tunnels right now, waiting.
minutes, secondsIRGC footage showed dozens of them lined up inside hardened underground facilities that US cruise missiles and precision bunker penetrators cannot
minutes, secondseasily reach. Because unlike the nuclear facilities at Natans and Fordo, these tunnel complexes are not singlepoint targets with known coordinates. They are
minutes, secondsdispersed, distributed, and designed to survive the opening phases of a US air campaign. Admiral Brad Cooper, Sentcom
minutes, secondscommander, said US forces achieved total air and sea dominance over Iran within days. That may be true of conventional naval forces. US forces have sunk or
minutes, secondsdestroyed more than Iranian naval vessels, including Iran's Shahid Beari drone carrier, which was comparable in size to a World War II era aircraft
minutes, secondscarrier. But a drone carrier that is visible on satellite imagery can be targeted and sunk. had fast
minutes, secondsattack boats in underground tunnels cannot. And here is the operational nightmare they represent. If the USS Gerald R. Ford moves from the Red Sea
minutes, secondsinto the Arabian Sea, she moves within range. If she moves from the Arabian Sea toward the straight of Hormuz, which is what Trump is publicly demanding, what
minutes, secondsthe escorted tanker convoy strategy requires, she moves into the Persian Gulf, where those Hadar ands can be sorted from tunnel complexes along the
minutes, secondsnorthern coast of the straight in minutes, not hours, minutes. A knot boat covers nautical miles faster than a destroyer's fire control system can
minutes, secondstrack and engage multiple simultaneous contacts in a contested mind-threatened shallow water environment. That is the tactical dimension of the logistics trap
minutes, secondsIran has constructed. Let's bring the full picture together because individually each of these elements is serious. Together they constitute
minutes, secondssomething that military strategists call an anti-access area denial architecture.
minutes, secondsAin the doctrine shorthand. And what makes Iran's AA architecture uniquely dangerous is the specific design principle at its core. Army
minutes, secondsrecognition's comprehensive analysis released this month described it with surgical precision.
minutes, secondsIran's defensive design for a clash with the United States is built less around winning decisive naval or air battles and more around manufacturing sustained friction at every layer of the campaign.
minutes, secondsThe intent is to pull US forces into a dense overlapping threat environment where time, interceptor inventories, and political tolerance become the real
minutes, secondscenters of gravity. time interceptor inventories political tolerance. Those are Iran's three weapons against the
minutes, secondsFord. Not the college FARS anti-hship ballistic missile with its electrooptical seeker that can track a moving carrier at terminal phase
minutes, secondsdescent. Not the Godd sitting unfired in its mobile launcher somewhere in the Iranian interior. Those are instruments of escalation that Iran is
minutes, secondsrationing carefully. The real weapons against the forward are time. Nine months at sea, depleted crews, maintenance backlogs, and aircraft,
minutes, secondsinterceptor inventories, SM series missiles per destroyer being consumed in every engagement against drone swarms in
minutes, secondsCMsalvos unable to be restocked without returning. Deport and political tolerance, the domestic American calculation about how long this campaign
minutes, secondscontinues, shaped by every gas price surge at the pump, every S&P point lost, every stranded tanker unable to pass through the straight of Hormuz.
minutesIran has built a machine to drain all three simultaneously. And the Ford is at the center of that machine. That is what
minutes, secondsFars News meant when it said logistics and service centers enabling the USS Gerald Ford to remain operational were being considered as targets. They're not
minutes, secondsplanning to sink her. They are planning to strand her. Signal number four. And this one takes the story somewhere very few analysts are willing to go publicly.
minutes, secondsThe fire aboard the Ford on March th. The Navy said it was not combat related.
minutes, secondsa fire in the laundry spaces, two injured sailors, carrier fully operational, and that is almost certainly the true account. But within
minutes, secondsthe minutes between the first images going viral and the official statement,
minutes, secondsIranian state media and IRGC affiliated social media channels ran a coordinated narrative claiming that a missile had struck the Ford, that it was on fire,
minutes, secondsthat US forces were covering up damage to the world's most powerful warship. It was false. The evidence is clear that the fire was accidental. But here is the
minutes, secondsstrategic value of that false narrative to Iran's war effort. It is a test. Iran was running a test. They were measuring how fast the disinformation spread, how
minutes, secondslong it took the US Navy to respond with a denial, what the reaction was in commodity markets, did oil spike, did shipping insurance rates move in the
minutes, secondsminutes after the story went viral, and whether they could use information warfare as a weapon against the Ford's operational credibility. Because here is
minutes, secondswhat actually strands a carrier before a single missile is fired. the loss of confidence by allied governments,
minutes, secondscommercial shipping companies, and insurance underwriters that the carrier's protective envelope is intact.
minutes, secondsIf shipping companies believe, even incorrectly, that the USS Gerald R. Ford took a hit on March th, their risk
minutes, secondsmodels update. Their insurance rates go up, their willingness to transit the areas where the Ford is operating goes down, and that is a victory for Iran that costs nothing. No missile expended,
minutes, secondsno ship exposed, just a viral narrative and minutes of strategic ambiguity.
minutes, secondsThat is the information layer of the logistics trap. And it is running continuously right now in parallel with every physical military action in this
minutes, secondsconflict. Here is where we are at this moment, Monday, March th, The USS Gerald R. Ford is in the Red Sea,
minutes, secondsfully operational. That part of the official statement is true. Her airwing is flying combat missions against Iranian targets. Her escort destroyers are patrolling their assigned sectors.
minutes, secondsHer Arley Burke class companions are cycling their Eegis radar systems through continuous threat tracking. USNS supply is conducting replenishment runs.
minutes, secondsEverything the Navy says about the Ford's operational status is accurate.
minutes, secondsand the entire Iranian military establishment from IRGC Navy commanders and hardened coastal facilities to the new Supreme Leader Motab in his
minutes, secondsundisclosed bunker northeast of Thran is watching every publicly visible piece of the Ford's positioning in real time via commercial satellite imagery via
minutes, secondsautomatic identification system tracking of naval auxiliaries via the open source naval tracking communities that broadcast ship positions to the global
minutes, secondsinternet they are updating their targeting solutions they are watching the USNS applies replenishment cycles They're calibrating the timing of the
minutes, secondsnext drone swarm against the Ford's escort destroyer's known interceptor depletion rates. And they are holding the gat waiting for the geometry to
minutes, secondsbe right, waiting for the ford to move closer, waiting for the magazines to be lighter. There are two futures available in the next to hours. Two paths,
minutes, secondsexactly two. The first is the one where the Ford's presence in the Red Sea constitutes sufficient political and military deterrence. where the
minutes, secondscombination of US air strikes on Iranian infrastructure, the sinking of Iranian naval vessels, and the threatened deployment of a third carrier group, the USS George HW Bush, CVN
minutes, secondscurrently to days from the theater, creates enough cumulative pressure that Iran agrees to a humanitarian or commercial ceasefire in the Straight of Hormuz, where the back
minutes, secondschannel that Iranian intelligence opened on March th, the message sent to Washington saying Thrron is willing to talk, gets followed up, where the
minutes, secondsplus Gadier submarines stay in their patrol zones without deploying their mines. Where the Hadar ands stay in their underground tunnels. Where the Gutter stays on its launcher.
minutes, secondsWhere the Ford's magazines are restocked, her escorts rotate, and the logistical trap is diffused before it fully closes. That is path one. It
minutes, secondsrequires Iran to accept that its asymmetric AAD strategy is not going to prevent the Ford from sustaining operations indefinitely. That the
minutes, secondseconomic cost of the Hormuz blockade is destroying its own allies tolerance.
minutes, secondsThat Moshtabaka Kame's hardline instinct to exhaust the American logistics chain is going to exhaust Iran's strategic reserve first. There is evidence that
minutes, secondsIraqi's faction in Thran understands this math. The back channel exists. The door is not locked. The second path is the one where Iran springs the full trap, where the gutter is fired,
minutes, secondswhere the Kadier submarines see the approaches to the straight with the first mines from Iran's estimated to unit stockpile. Where a
minutes, secondsHadar and missile boats pour out of their underground tunnels simultaneously, traveling at knots in a distributed swarm attack on
minutes, secondswhatever vessel is nearest. where the CMSalvo comes not as a single test,
minutes, secondsbut as a coordinated missile barrage timed to coincide with a Shahed drone attack on the Ford's escort
minutes, secondsscreen, testing the interceptor limit per destroyer in real time. That scenario does not guarantee the Ford is sunk. US integrated fire control, the
minutes, secondscombination of Aegis radar, SMinterceptors, SMterminal defense missiles, EAG Growler electronic
minutes, secondswarfare jamming, FAfighters on combat air patrol is formidable. It may hold.
minutes, secondsIt may hold completely, but every interceptor fired in that engagement is gone. Every SMthat takes down a CM
minutes, secondsis a depleted magazine. Every SMthat kills a sekming nor cruise missile is a gap in the defensive envelope. And after that engagement, before the magazines
minutes, secondscan be restocked, is the window Iran is calculating for. The window when the Ford is most vulnerable. The window when the Gdderd that has never been fired
minutes, secondsin this conflict could reach out from a mobile launcher somewhere in the Iranian interior and test whether the Ford's remaining defensive screen is thick
minutes, secondsenough to stop a missile traveling at Mach from a thousand kilometers away before American strike aircraft can even find the launcher. That is the second
minutes, secondspath. It is not certain. Iran's military has taken severe losses. ships sunk,
minutes, secondstargets struck, natans under rubble. But doctrine is doctrine. And Iran's doctrine says, "Don't fight the war America wants to fight. Fight the war that drains America's magazines,
minutes, secondsstrains America's logistics, tests America's political tolerance, and makes the cost of sustaining the Ford's presence exceed the strategic benefit of
minutes, secondsmaintaining it. The trap is already partially closed. The question is whether the ford moves deeper into the Persian Gulf before it springs
minutes, secondscompletely or whether someone somewhere in a back channel that still has a functioning line finds the off-ramp before the geometry reaches the point of
minutes, secondsno return. The USS Gerald R. Ford is in the Red Sea. She is fully operational.
minutes, secondswords. And the next move she makes toward the Persian Gulf or toward the port of Jedha for resupply will tell every analyst watching this theater
minutes, secondsexactly which of those two futures is coming. Watch the AIS transponder. Watch USNS supplies position. Watch whether
minutes, secondsthe Bush moves up its deployment timeline. And watch whether the Gdderd disappears from its last known coordinates. Because in this war, the
minutes, secondsweapons that have not yet been fired tell you more about what happens next than the ones that have. The clock is running, the magazine depth is declining, and the logistics trap is closing one nautical mile at a time.
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Re: Part 2 Anti-Anti-Nazi Barbarian Hordes are Knocking Down
by admin » Tue Mar 17, 2026 2:42 am
Qatar's Airspace Is Closed. 140 Emergency Flights. The Gulf's Financial Capital Is Emptying Out.
Blackbox Money and Collapse Codex
Mar 16, 2026
Global Crisis Survival Guide: https://asianguy.gumroad.com/l/llatnl
Qatar's airspace is officially closed. Qatar Airways has scheduled more than 140 special emergency flights to repatriate stranded residents and citizens. The country that hosts Al Udeid — the largest American military base in the Middle East, the forward headquarters of US Central Command — is emptying out. And the deeper story is not just that the airspace is closed. It is what Qatar closing its airspace while simultaneously launching 140 evacuation flights tells you about what its government knows, what its sovereign wealth fund managers are doing right now, and why the financial capital that manages $475 billion of global assets is the one place in this conflict whose evacuation has consequences that reach every stock market, every bond market, and every investment portfolio on earth.
In this video, we break down:
Why Qatar closing its airspace is a different category of signal than any other Gulf state evacuation — and what the combination of airspace closure and 140 emergency flights tells you that neither event alone would tell you
What happens to $475 billion in Qatar Investment Authority assets when the sovereign wealth fund's home country is under active missile threat and its financial managers are on evacuation flights
Why Al Udeid Air Base — 10,000 American personnel, the forward headquarters of US Central Command — is now operating inside a country whose own government is flying its people out
What the LNG shutdown at Qatar's two largest production facilities means for European gas prices this winter and why a 30% single-day jump in European gas futures was just the opening number
Why Qatar's evacuation is the moment this conflict stopped being something that happens to soldiers and started being something that happens to money — and what that shift means for how fast it ends
Transcript
Emptying. Qatar is emptying out. Not slowly, not in the orderly managed way that governments describe when they use words like voluntary departure and
secondsprecautionary relocation and temporary displacement. Emptying the way a place empties when the people inside it have decided that whatever they built there,
secondswhatever they invested there, whatever life they constructed in one of the wealthiest cities on Earth is worth less than the guarantee of being somewhere else before the next missile arrives.
secondsQatar's airspace is closed to commercial traffic. emergency flights have been scheduled by Qatar Airways to move people out. Not inbound flights bringing
secondstourists and business travelers and the constant flow of human traffic that made Doha one of the most connected cities on Earth. Outbound flights, emergency
secondsflights, the kind of flights a national airline schedules when the calculation is shifted from moving people through a hub to moving people away from one. The
secondsGulf's financial capital is emptying out. And here is what makes Qatar different from every other Gulf state that has absorbed Iranian strikes in this conflict. Qatar is not just a
secondscountry. Qatar is not just a city. Qatar is a financial architecture, a sovereign wealth fund with $billion in assets.
minute, secondsThe largest LNG exporter on Earth, the host of the US Central Command forward headquarters, the country that owns stakes in Volkswagen, Barkclays,
minute, secondsHeathrow Airport, the Shard in London, and real estate across six continents.
minute, secondsthe country that hosted the World Cup in front of the entire watching world two years ago and spent a decade building the gleaming towers and the infrastructure and the global brand that
minute, secondssaid the Gulf is safe, the Gulf is prosperous, the Gulf is the future. That brand is on emergency flights right
minute, secondsnow. Stay with me because what happens when Qatar empties is not a humanitarian story about displaced people. It is a
minute, secondsfinancial story about what happens to $billion in sovereign wealth, to global LNG supply, to the US military's
minute, secondsforward command structure, and to the economic model that made the Gulf the miracle of the last years when the city at the center of all of it decides the time has come to get its people out.
minute, secondsBefore we continue, a quick note. Many of the events we cover on this channel follow recurring patterns. Economic stress, geopolitical escalation, and
minutes, secondssystemic shocks. While researching these patterns, I created a detailed report called the Global Crisis Survival Guide,
minutes, secondswhere I break down the warning signals that often appear before major global disruptions and practical strategies for navigating them. If you're interested in reading the full report, you'll find it linked in the description below. Now,
minutes, secondslet's continue with today's analysis. Let me tell you what Qatar actually is.
minutes, secondsBecause the coverage of this conflict has treated it primarily as a location,
minutes, secondsa place where things happen, where bases are, where strikes land. Qatar is not primarily a location. Qatar is a financial entity of extraordinary concentrated power dressed as a country.
minutes, secondsQatar has a population of million people. Of those, approximately are Qatari citizens. The remaining million are expatriate workers,
minutes, secondsengineers, financeers, construction workers, domestic workers, hospitality staff, military contractors, people from
minutescountries who came to Qar because Qar was paying and Qar was safe and Qatar was the kind of place where the combination of tax-free income and
minutes, secondsphysical security made the sacrifice of living away from home worth the calculation. That population is on emergency flights. Not all of it, not
minutes, secondsyet. But the signal that emergency flights sends to million expatriots doing their own personal risk
minutes, secondscalculation is unambiguous. Qatar Airways, the national carrier that has been the physical expression of Qatar's global connectivity ambitions. The
minutes, secondsairline that launched the most aggressive international route expansion in aviation history. The carrier that positioned Hammad International Airport as the competitor to Dubai for Gulf Hub
minutes, secondssupremacy is now running evacuation flights. The same airline that flew you here is now telling you it is time to leave. Qatar's sovereign wealth fund,
minutes, secondsthe Qatar Investment Authority, manages $billion in assets. It owns % of the London Stock Exchange. It owns
minutes, secondssignificant stakes in credit Swiss. It owns Herods. It owns the Canary Wararf development in London. It owns a portfolio of global real estate,
minutes, secondsinfrastructure, and financial instruments built over years of oil and gas revenue being converted into ownership stakes in the institutions
minutes, secondsthat underpin the global economy. That fund does not sit in Qar. Its assets are distributed globally, but its management is in Doha. Its decision-making
minutes, secondsinfrastructure is in Qatar. And when the people who manage $billion in global assets are on emergency flights out of
minutes, secondsthe city where they manage it, the markets in which those assets sit notice. Let's talk about what Qatar's LNG production means for the global
minutes, secondsenergy system and why the combination of its airspace closure and the evacuation of its population is not primarily a safety story. It is an energy supply
minutes, secondsstory with consequences that reach every heated home in every powered factory in Europe. Qatar is the world's largest exporter of liqufied natural gas. It
minutes, secondsproduces approximately million tons of LG per year. The primary customers for that production are Japan, South
minutes, secondsKorea, India, China, and critically Europe. Europe, which lost Russian gas supply and replaced a significant portion of it with Qatari LNG. Europe,
minutes, secondswhich has been managing its energy security calculation on the premise that Gulf LG was stable, reliable, and available. Iranian strikes hit Qatar's
minutes, secondstwo largest LG production facilities directly in the second week of this conflict. Production at both facilities was suspended following the strikes.
minutes, secondsEuropean natural gas futures jumped %
minutes, secondswithin hours of that suspension being confirmed. The reason % happened that fast is that traders understand the supply arithmetic. Remove Qar from the
minutes, secondsLNG supply picture and there is no replacement volume available at any price that restores the balance. Norwegian gas cannot scale fast enough.
minutes, secondsAmerican LNG export terminals are at capacity. The alternative supply that would buffer a Qatari outage does not exist in the volumes required. Qatar's
minutes, secondsproduction facilities are now operating at reduced capacity. Damage assessment is ongoing. Repair timelines are uncertain. And the country whose
minutes, secondstechnical expertise operates those facilities is on emergency evacuation flights. Let that last sentence sit for a moment. The engineers who run the
minutes, secondsworld's largest LG export infrastructure are leaving. Not all of them. Not permanently. Most evacuation flights are moving families and non-essential
minutes, secondspersonnel while technical staff and military contractors remain under emergency protocols. But the direction of human movement in Qatar right now is
minutes, secondsoutbound. and LG facilities that operate under emergency staffing conditions in a city whose airspace is closed in a country that has just absorbed Iranian
minutes, secondsstrikes on its critical infrastructure do not produce at normal capacity regardless of how much the world needs them to. Here is what Qatar emptying
minutes, secondsmeans for people who have never been to Qatar and have no intention of ever going. A family in Germany is managing an energy bill that has already increased significantly since Russian
minutes, secondsgas supply was cut. They made adjustments. They turned down the thermostat. They insulated the roof.
minutes, secondsThey absorbed the cost increase as the new normal and built their household budget around it. Qatar's LNG was part of the supply picture that stabilized their bill at the new higher level.
minutes, secondsQatar's production facilities hit Qar's technical staff evacuating. Qatar's LNG output dropping. That family's next bill
minutes, secondsis not at the stabilized level. It is at a higher level that their budget was not built for. A factory in the Netherlands runs on natural gas for its industrial
minutes, secondsprocesses. It produces components for the European automotive industry. When natural gas prices increase beyond a certain threshold, the facto's production costs exceed its contract
minutes, secondsprices, and the factory reduces output or suspends production entirely. That factory is currently doing the arithmetic on the gap between its
minutes, secondscontract prices and its current energy costs. Qatar's production drop is part of that arithmetic. The workers at that factory are part of the downstream
minutes, secondsconsequence of emergency flights leaving Doha. A hospital in Pakistan receives power from a grid that runs on natural gas. When global LNG prices
minutes, secondsincrease, Pakistani energy import costs increase. When import costs increase,
minutes, secondsPakistan's energy ministry makes allocation decisions that affect grid reliability. When grid reliability decreases, hospitals run on generators.
minutes, secondsGenerators that run on diesel, diesel that also costs more when oil is above $The chain runs from Qatar's closed airspace to a Pakistani hospital's
minutes, secondsgenerator budget through a series of energy pricing connections that nobody in that hospital is tracking, but that are as real as the building they are sitting in. billion people downstream.
minutes, secondsemergency flights out of Doha. Here is what Qatar's government said about the evacuation and the airspace closure.
minutes, secondsAnd here is the shape of everything that statement leaves out. Qatar's government issued a statement describing the airspace closure as a temporary precautionary measure implemented in
minutes, secondsresponse to evolving security conditions in the region. It confirmed that Qatar Airways had arranged emergency flights to assist residents and citizens wishing
minutes, secondsto depart. It stated that essential services were continuing to operate and that Qar remained committed to fulfilling its international obligations, including its role as a mediator in regional conflicts.
minutes, secondsTemporary precautionary measure. That phrase is doing the same work that temporarily did in Dubai's airport closure statement. It communicates bounded disruption with an implied
minutes, secondsendpoint. It tells the financial markets and the LG customers and the military contractors and the million expatriots doing their personal risk
minutes, secondscalculation that this is a pause, not a conclusion. Here is what temporary precautionary measure does not communicate. Qatar's airspace is closed
minutes, secondsbecause Iranian missiles hit Qatari territory and Iran's new supreme leader has issued an ultimatum making the removal of American bases including the
minutes, secondsUS Central Command forward headquarters at al- Uade air base inside Qatar a condition for any change in Iranian military posture. Qatar cannot remove
minutes, secondsal-Uar cannot ask America to remove al-U publicly without collapsing the security framework that protects Qatar from the
minutes, secondsvery threat it is currently evacuating from. Qatar cannot ignore the Iranian ultimatum because Iran has demonstrated the capability and the willingness to
minutes, secondsstrike Qatari territory. Qatar is caught between an American security guarantee that requires American military presence on Qatari soil and an Iranian military
minutes, secondsthat is treating that presence as a justification for striking Qatari infrastructure. The temporary precautionary measure is Qatar's government communicating to its
minutes, secondspopulation and to global financial markets that this situation is manageable while privately running calculations about whether it actually
minutes, secondsis. The second absence from official communications. The financial consequences of evacuation on Qatar's sovereign wealth fund operations. The
minutes, secondsQIA's Doha management infrastructure includes hundreds of analysts, portfolio managers, and financial engineers who coordinate the fund's global investment
minutes, secondsstrategy. These are people whose presence in Doha is operationally important to the fund's management. They are also people who are currently making
minutes, secondspersonal decisions about whether to remain in a city that is on emergency outbound flights. The fund's assets are globally distributed and will
minutes, secondsnot disappear with the evacuation. The fund's management continuity, the human infrastructure that makes daily decisions about $billion in global
minutes, secondsassets, is on the same risk calculation that every other Doha resident is running right now. The United States military's response to Qatar's
minutes, secondsevacuation is the most operationally significant reaction of any party to this development. Al- Udade air base,
minutes, secondsthe largest American military installation in the Middle East. The forward headquarters of US Central Command, the facility that coordinates American military operations across
minutes, secondscountries, is inside Qatar. It has not been evacuated. American military personnel at Aludade are operating under heightened force protection protocols.
minutes, secondsThe base has activated dispersal procedures, moving aircraft to secondary parking positions and redistributing personnel away from the most exposed
minutes, secondsinfrastructure. What American military commanders at Al Udade are managing is a specific version of the impossible calculation that this conflict has been
minutes, secondsgenerating for every American base in the Gulf. The base cannot close in response to Qatar's civilian evacuation without validating Iran's ultimatum and
minutes, secondsproducing a cascading collapse of American military presence across the region. The base cannot operate normally without acknowledging that the city around it is emptying and the country
minutes, secondshosting it is absorbing Iranian strikes on its critical infrastructure. Al-
minutes, secondsUdade is staying. The question of what Iran does about al- Udade staying is the question that everyone in Doha and Washington is currently most focused on.
minutes, secondsRussia's foreign ministry issued a statement expressing concern for civilian welfare in Qatar and calling on all parties to protect civilian populations and civilian infrastructure.
minutes, secondsThe statement noted that Qatar's role as a diplomatic mediator, Qatar has historically maintained back channel communications with Iran that other Gulf
minutes, secondsstates cannot maintain, was an important regional asset that should be preserved.
minutes, secondsRussia is telling Iran through formal diplomatic communication, the Qatar's mediating function has value that direct military action against Qatar's civilian
minutes, secondsinfrastructure undermines. Whether Iran's new supreme leader receives that message as a constraint on his operational options or as a diplomatic
minutes, secondsformality to be noted and set aside is the question that Russia's statement cannot answer. China's response was immediate and material. Beijing
minutes, secondsactivated emergency consular assistance protocols for Chinese nationals in Qatar, approximately people, and began coordinating with Qatar Airways on
minutes, secondspriority boarding for Chinese passport holders on the emergency evacuation flights. China also issued a formal communication to Qatar's LNG management
minutes, secondsthrough state energy company CNOC requesting clarification on production timelines and alternative supply arrangements. China is simultaneously
minutes, secondsevacuating its nationals and protecting its energy supply contracts. The two actions communicate Beijing's assessment of the situation more clearly than any
minutes, secondsofficial statement could. European energy ministers held an emergency call within hours of Qatar's airspace closure being confirmed. The call produced a
minutes, secondsjoint statement calling for the protection of critical energy infrastructure and the resumption of normal LNG operations. The statement
minutes, secondsproduced no concrete measures. No alternative supply was identified. No timeline was committed to. No additional storage was announced. The European
minutes, secondsenergy system is running on the assumption that the crisis will resolve before reserves run out. The assumption has a deadline. The deadline is winter.
minutes, secondsHere is what Qatar emptying means for this conflict and for the world beyond it. It means the Gulf economic miracle,
minutes, secondsthe -year project of transforming oil and gas revenue into sovereign wealth,
minutes, secondsand global financial presence and gleaming cities that told the world the Middle East could build something that the world would want to be part of is being stress tested in the most direct way possible. Not by economic crisis,
minutes, secondsnot by oil price volatility, by missiles, and by the human response to missiles, which is to get on the emergency flights that the national
minutes, secondsairline schedules when the calculation changes. It means the LG supply that Europe built its post-Russian energy security around is now doubly disrupted.
minutes, secondsRussian gas is gone. Qatari LNG is operating at reduced capacity with technical staff evacuating and production facilities damaged and no
minutes, secondsrepair timeline confirmed. Europe is going into this winter with no reliable alternative to either supply source and a storage situation that was already
minutes, secondsconcerning before a single Iranian missile hit Qatari territory. It means the six million expatriate workers who built Qatar into what it is, who
minutes, secondsstaffed the hospitals and ran the hotels and drove the taxis and worked the construction sites and managed the financial institutions and operated the
minutes, secondLNG terminals are on emergency flights carrying the human capital that Qatar's economic model required to function. They will go home to the
minutes, secondsPhilippines, to India, to Pakistan, to Egypt, to countries. And the question of whether they come back,
minutes, secondswhether Qatar after this conflict is a place that attracts the global workforce its economic model requires is a question that emergency flights
minutes, secondscannot answer, but that the answer to will determine what Qatar looks like in years. And it means the World Cup city. The city that the world watched in
minutes, secondsand understood as the argument for Gulf prosperity and Gulf stability and Gulf ambition, the towers and the stadiums and the infrastructure built to
minutes, secondsshow the world what this part of the earth could become. Is this morning a city whose airspace is closed, whose LNG facilities are damaged, whose expatriate
minutes, secondspopulation is boarding emergency flights, and whose government is managing the gap between what it can say publicly and what its private
minutes, secondscalculations are producing. Qatar built something magnificent. The world came and watched it, and now the world's most consequential military conflict is
minutes, secondsrunning through it on its way to a conclusion that nobody has yet been able to define. The airspace is closed. The flights are outbound. The towers are
minutes, secondsstill standing. But the city that never stopped moving is very quiet this morning. And the silence where the planes used to be is the loudest thing in the Gulf right now.
Blackbox Money and Collapse Codex
Mar 16, 2026
Global Crisis Survival Guide: https://asianguy.gumroad.com/l/llatnl
Qatar's airspace is officially closed. Qatar Airways has scheduled more than 140 special emergency flights to repatriate stranded residents and citizens. The country that hosts Al Udeid — the largest American military base in the Middle East, the forward headquarters of US Central Command — is emptying out. And the deeper story is not just that the airspace is closed. It is what Qatar closing its airspace while simultaneously launching 140 evacuation flights tells you about what its government knows, what its sovereign wealth fund managers are doing right now, and why the financial capital that manages $475 billion of global assets is the one place in this conflict whose evacuation has consequences that reach every stock market, every bond market, and every investment portfolio on earth.
In this video, we break down:
Why Qatar closing its airspace is a different category of signal than any other Gulf state evacuation — and what the combination of airspace closure and 140 emergency flights tells you that neither event alone would tell you
What happens to $475 billion in Qatar Investment Authority assets when the sovereign wealth fund's home country is under active missile threat and its financial managers are on evacuation flights
Why Al Udeid Air Base — 10,000 American personnel, the forward headquarters of US Central Command — is now operating inside a country whose own government is flying its people out
What the LNG shutdown at Qatar's two largest production facilities means for European gas prices this winter and why a 30% single-day jump in European gas futures was just the opening number
Why Qatar's evacuation is the moment this conflict stopped being something that happens to soldiers and started being something that happens to money — and what that shift means for how fast it ends
Transcript
Emptying. Qatar is emptying out. Not slowly, not in the orderly managed way that governments describe when they use words like voluntary departure and
secondsprecautionary relocation and temporary displacement. Emptying the way a place empties when the people inside it have decided that whatever they built there,
secondswhatever they invested there, whatever life they constructed in one of the wealthiest cities on Earth is worth less than the guarantee of being somewhere else before the next missile arrives.
secondsQatar's airspace is closed to commercial traffic. emergency flights have been scheduled by Qatar Airways to move people out. Not inbound flights bringing
secondstourists and business travelers and the constant flow of human traffic that made Doha one of the most connected cities on Earth. Outbound flights, emergency
secondsflights, the kind of flights a national airline schedules when the calculation is shifted from moving people through a hub to moving people away from one. The
secondsGulf's financial capital is emptying out. And here is what makes Qatar different from every other Gulf state that has absorbed Iranian strikes in this conflict. Qatar is not just a
secondscountry. Qatar is not just a city. Qatar is a financial architecture, a sovereign wealth fund with $billion in assets.
minute, secondsThe largest LNG exporter on Earth, the host of the US Central Command forward headquarters, the country that owns stakes in Volkswagen, Barkclays,
minute, secondsHeathrow Airport, the Shard in London, and real estate across six continents.
minute, secondsthe country that hosted the World Cup in front of the entire watching world two years ago and spent a decade building the gleaming towers and the infrastructure and the global brand that
minute, secondssaid the Gulf is safe, the Gulf is prosperous, the Gulf is the future. That brand is on emergency flights right
minute, secondsnow. Stay with me because what happens when Qatar empties is not a humanitarian story about displaced people. It is a
minute, secondsfinancial story about what happens to $billion in sovereign wealth, to global LNG supply, to the US military's
minute, secondsforward command structure, and to the economic model that made the Gulf the miracle of the last years when the city at the center of all of it decides the time has come to get its people out.
minute, secondsBefore we continue, a quick note. Many of the events we cover on this channel follow recurring patterns. Economic stress, geopolitical escalation, and
minutes, secondssystemic shocks. While researching these patterns, I created a detailed report called the Global Crisis Survival Guide,
minutes, secondswhere I break down the warning signals that often appear before major global disruptions and practical strategies for navigating them. If you're interested in reading the full report, you'll find it linked in the description below. Now,
minutes, secondslet's continue with today's analysis. Let me tell you what Qatar actually is.
minutes, secondsBecause the coverage of this conflict has treated it primarily as a location,
minutes, secondsa place where things happen, where bases are, where strikes land. Qatar is not primarily a location. Qatar is a financial entity of extraordinary concentrated power dressed as a country.
minutes, secondsQatar has a population of million people. Of those, approximately are Qatari citizens. The remaining million are expatriate workers,
minutes, secondsengineers, financeers, construction workers, domestic workers, hospitality staff, military contractors, people from
minutescountries who came to Qar because Qar was paying and Qar was safe and Qatar was the kind of place where the combination of tax-free income and
minutes, secondsphysical security made the sacrifice of living away from home worth the calculation. That population is on emergency flights. Not all of it, not
minutes, secondsyet. But the signal that emergency flights sends to million expatriots doing their own personal risk
minutes, secondscalculation is unambiguous. Qatar Airways, the national carrier that has been the physical expression of Qatar's global connectivity ambitions. The
minutes, secondsairline that launched the most aggressive international route expansion in aviation history. The carrier that positioned Hammad International Airport as the competitor to Dubai for Gulf Hub
minutes, secondssupremacy is now running evacuation flights. The same airline that flew you here is now telling you it is time to leave. Qatar's sovereign wealth fund,
minutes, secondsthe Qatar Investment Authority, manages $billion in assets. It owns % of the London Stock Exchange. It owns
minutes, secondssignificant stakes in credit Swiss. It owns Herods. It owns the Canary Wararf development in London. It owns a portfolio of global real estate,
minutes, secondsinfrastructure, and financial instruments built over years of oil and gas revenue being converted into ownership stakes in the institutions
minutes, secondsthat underpin the global economy. That fund does not sit in Qar. Its assets are distributed globally, but its management is in Doha. Its decision-making
minutes, secondsinfrastructure is in Qatar. And when the people who manage $billion in global assets are on emergency flights out of
minutes, secondsthe city where they manage it, the markets in which those assets sit notice. Let's talk about what Qatar's LNG production means for the global
minutes, secondsenergy system and why the combination of its airspace closure and the evacuation of its population is not primarily a safety story. It is an energy supply
minutes, secondsstory with consequences that reach every heated home in every powered factory in Europe. Qatar is the world's largest exporter of liqufied natural gas. It
minutes, secondsproduces approximately million tons of LG per year. The primary customers for that production are Japan, South
minutes, secondsKorea, India, China, and critically Europe. Europe, which lost Russian gas supply and replaced a significant portion of it with Qatari LNG. Europe,
minutes, secondswhich has been managing its energy security calculation on the premise that Gulf LG was stable, reliable, and available. Iranian strikes hit Qatar's
minutes, secondstwo largest LG production facilities directly in the second week of this conflict. Production at both facilities was suspended following the strikes.
minutes, secondsEuropean natural gas futures jumped %
minutes, secondswithin hours of that suspension being confirmed. The reason % happened that fast is that traders understand the supply arithmetic. Remove Qar from the
minutes, secondsLNG supply picture and there is no replacement volume available at any price that restores the balance. Norwegian gas cannot scale fast enough.
minutes, secondsAmerican LNG export terminals are at capacity. The alternative supply that would buffer a Qatari outage does not exist in the volumes required. Qatar's
minutes, secondsproduction facilities are now operating at reduced capacity. Damage assessment is ongoing. Repair timelines are uncertain. And the country whose
minutes, secondstechnical expertise operates those facilities is on emergency evacuation flights. Let that last sentence sit for a moment. The engineers who run the
minutes, secondsworld's largest LG export infrastructure are leaving. Not all of them. Not permanently. Most evacuation flights are moving families and non-essential
minutes, secondspersonnel while technical staff and military contractors remain under emergency protocols. But the direction of human movement in Qatar right now is
minutes, secondsoutbound. and LG facilities that operate under emergency staffing conditions in a city whose airspace is closed in a country that has just absorbed Iranian
minutes, secondsstrikes on its critical infrastructure do not produce at normal capacity regardless of how much the world needs them to. Here is what Qatar emptying
minutes, secondsmeans for people who have never been to Qatar and have no intention of ever going. A family in Germany is managing an energy bill that has already increased significantly since Russian
minutes, secondsgas supply was cut. They made adjustments. They turned down the thermostat. They insulated the roof.
minutes, secondsThey absorbed the cost increase as the new normal and built their household budget around it. Qatar's LNG was part of the supply picture that stabilized their bill at the new higher level.
minutes, secondsQatar's production facilities hit Qar's technical staff evacuating. Qatar's LNG output dropping. That family's next bill
minutes, secondsis not at the stabilized level. It is at a higher level that their budget was not built for. A factory in the Netherlands runs on natural gas for its industrial
minutes, secondsprocesses. It produces components for the European automotive industry. When natural gas prices increase beyond a certain threshold, the facto's production costs exceed its contract
minutes, secondsprices, and the factory reduces output or suspends production entirely. That factory is currently doing the arithmetic on the gap between its
minutes, secondscontract prices and its current energy costs. Qatar's production drop is part of that arithmetic. The workers at that factory are part of the downstream
minutes, secondsconsequence of emergency flights leaving Doha. A hospital in Pakistan receives power from a grid that runs on natural gas. When global LNG prices
minutes, secondsincrease, Pakistani energy import costs increase. When import costs increase,
minutes, secondsPakistan's energy ministry makes allocation decisions that affect grid reliability. When grid reliability decreases, hospitals run on generators.
minutes, secondsGenerators that run on diesel, diesel that also costs more when oil is above $The chain runs from Qatar's closed airspace to a Pakistani hospital's
minutes, secondsgenerator budget through a series of energy pricing connections that nobody in that hospital is tracking, but that are as real as the building they are sitting in. billion people downstream.
minutes, secondsemergency flights out of Doha. Here is what Qatar's government said about the evacuation and the airspace closure.
minutes, secondsAnd here is the shape of everything that statement leaves out. Qatar's government issued a statement describing the airspace closure as a temporary precautionary measure implemented in
minutes, secondsresponse to evolving security conditions in the region. It confirmed that Qatar Airways had arranged emergency flights to assist residents and citizens wishing
minutes, secondsto depart. It stated that essential services were continuing to operate and that Qar remained committed to fulfilling its international obligations, including its role as a mediator in regional conflicts.
minutes, secondsTemporary precautionary measure. That phrase is doing the same work that temporarily did in Dubai's airport closure statement. It communicates bounded disruption with an implied
minutes, secondsendpoint. It tells the financial markets and the LG customers and the military contractors and the million expatriots doing their personal risk
minutes, secondscalculation that this is a pause, not a conclusion. Here is what temporary precautionary measure does not communicate. Qatar's airspace is closed
minutes, secondsbecause Iranian missiles hit Qatari territory and Iran's new supreme leader has issued an ultimatum making the removal of American bases including the
minutes, secondsUS Central Command forward headquarters at al- Uade air base inside Qatar a condition for any change in Iranian military posture. Qatar cannot remove
minutes, secondsal-Uar cannot ask America to remove al-U publicly without collapsing the security framework that protects Qatar from the
minutes, secondsvery threat it is currently evacuating from. Qatar cannot ignore the Iranian ultimatum because Iran has demonstrated the capability and the willingness to
minutes, secondsstrike Qatari territory. Qatar is caught between an American security guarantee that requires American military presence on Qatari soil and an Iranian military
minutes, secondsthat is treating that presence as a justification for striking Qatari infrastructure. The temporary precautionary measure is Qatar's government communicating to its
minutes, secondspopulation and to global financial markets that this situation is manageable while privately running calculations about whether it actually
minutes, secondsis. The second absence from official communications. The financial consequences of evacuation on Qatar's sovereign wealth fund operations. The
minutes, secondsQIA's Doha management infrastructure includes hundreds of analysts, portfolio managers, and financial engineers who coordinate the fund's global investment
minutes, secondsstrategy. These are people whose presence in Doha is operationally important to the fund's management. They are also people who are currently making
minutes, secondspersonal decisions about whether to remain in a city that is on emergency outbound flights. The fund's assets are globally distributed and will
minutes, secondsnot disappear with the evacuation. The fund's management continuity, the human infrastructure that makes daily decisions about $billion in global
minutes, secondsassets, is on the same risk calculation that every other Doha resident is running right now. The United States military's response to Qatar's
minutes, secondsevacuation is the most operationally significant reaction of any party to this development. Al- Udade air base,
minutes, secondsthe largest American military installation in the Middle East. The forward headquarters of US Central Command, the facility that coordinates American military operations across
minutes, secondscountries, is inside Qatar. It has not been evacuated. American military personnel at Aludade are operating under heightened force protection protocols.
minutes, secondsThe base has activated dispersal procedures, moving aircraft to secondary parking positions and redistributing personnel away from the most exposed
minutes, secondsinfrastructure. What American military commanders at Al Udade are managing is a specific version of the impossible calculation that this conflict has been
minutes, secondsgenerating for every American base in the Gulf. The base cannot close in response to Qatar's civilian evacuation without validating Iran's ultimatum and
minutes, secondsproducing a cascading collapse of American military presence across the region. The base cannot operate normally without acknowledging that the city around it is emptying and the country
minutes, secondshosting it is absorbing Iranian strikes on its critical infrastructure. Al-
minutes, secondsUdade is staying. The question of what Iran does about al- Udade staying is the question that everyone in Doha and Washington is currently most focused on.
minutes, secondsRussia's foreign ministry issued a statement expressing concern for civilian welfare in Qatar and calling on all parties to protect civilian populations and civilian infrastructure.
minutes, secondsThe statement noted that Qatar's role as a diplomatic mediator, Qatar has historically maintained back channel communications with Iran that other Gulf
minutes, secondsstates cannot maintain, was an important regional asset that should be preserved.
minutes, secondsRussia is telling Iran through formal diplomatic communication, the Qatar's mediating function has value that direct military action against Qatar's civilian
minutes, secondsinfrastructure undermines. Whether Iran's new supreme leader receives that message as a constraint on his operational options or as a diplomatic
minutes, secondsformality to be noted and set aside is the question that Russia's statement cannot answer. China's response was immediate and material. Beijing
minutes, secondsactivated emergency consular assistance protocols for Chinese nationals in Qatar, approximately people, and began coordinating with Qatar Airways on
minutes, secondspriority boarding for Chinese passport holders on the emergency evacuation flights. China also issued a formal communication to Qatar's LNG management
minutes, secondsthrough state energy company CNOC requesting clarification on production timelines and alternative supply arrangements. China is simultaneously
minutes, secondsevacuating its nationals and protecting its energy supply contracts. The two actions communicate Beijing's assessment of the situation more clearly than any
minutes, secondsofficial statement could. European energy ministers held an emergency call within hours of Qatar's airspace closure being confirmed. The call produced a
minutes, secondsjoint statement calling for the protection of critical energy infrastructure and the resumption of normal LNG operations. The statement
minutes, secondsproduced no concrete measures. No alternative supply was identified. No timeline was committed to. No additional storage was announced. The European
minutes, secondsenergy system is running on the assumption that the crisis will resolve before reserves run out. The assumption has a deadline. The deadline is winter.
minutes, secondsHere is what Qatar emptying means for this conflict and for the world beyond it. It means the Gulf economic miracle,
minutes, secondsthe -year project of transforming oil and gas revenue into sovereign wealth,
minutes, secondsand global financial presence and gleaming cities that told the world the Middle East could build something that the world would want to be part of is being stress tested in the most direct way possible. Not by economic crisis,
minutes, secondsnot by oil price volatility, by missiles, and by the human response to missiles, which is to get on the emergency flights that the national
minutes, secondsairline schedules when the calculation changes. It means the LG supply that Europe built its post-Russian energy security around is now doubly disrupted.
minutes, secondsRussian gas is gone. Qatari LNG is operating at reduced capacity with technical staff evacuating and production facilities damaged and no
minutes, secondsrepair timeline confirmed. Europe is going into this winter with no reliable alternative to either supply source and a storage situation that was already
minutes, secondsconcerning before a single Iranian missile hit Qatari territory. It means the six million expatriate workers who built Qatar into what it is, who
minutes, secondsstaffed the hospitals and ran the hotels and drove the taxis and worked the construction sites and managed the financial institutions and operated the
minutes, secondLNG terminals are on emergency flights carrying the human capital that Qatar's economic model required to function. They will go home to the
minutes, secondsPhilippines, to India, to Pakistan, to Egypt, to countries. And the question of whether they come back,
minutes, secondswhether Qatar after this conflict is a place that attracts the global workforce its economic model requires is a question that emergency flights
minutes, secondscannot answer, but that the answer to will determine what Qatar looks like in years. And it means the World Cup city. The city that the world watched in
minutes, secondsand understood as the argument for Gulf prosperity and Gulf stability and Gulf ambition, the towers and the stadiums and the infrastructure built to
minutes, secondsshow the world what this part of the earth could become. Is this morning a city whose airspace is closed, whose LNG facilities are damaged, whose expatriate
minutes, secondspopulation is boarding emergency flights, and whose government is managing the gap between what it can say publicly and what its private
minutes, secondscalculations are producing. Qatar built something magnificent. The world came and watched it, and now the world's most consequential military conflict is
minutes, secondsrunning through it on its way to a conclusion that nobody has yet been able to define. The airspace is closed. The flights are outbound. The towers are
minutes, secondsstill standing. But the city that never stopped moving is very quiet this morning. And the silence where the planes used to be is the loudest thing in the Gulf right now.
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Re: Part 2 Anti-Anti-Nazi Barbarian Hordes are Knocking Down
by admin » Tue Mar 17, 2026 2:56 am
Trump's huge confession: says surprised by Iran's capabilities; Tehran responds | Janta Ka Reporter
Janta Ka Reporter
Mar 16, 2026
US President Donald Trump has expressed his astonishment and annoyance at Iran's ability to retaliate so hard in the wake of US strikes against the Islamic Republic. Meanwhile, his envoy, Steve Witkoff, claimed to activate a diplomatic channel with Tehran for talks. But Iranian Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi said that this was not true and that the US was attempting to mislead oil traders and its own public. Rifat Jawaid says this is another example of Trump conceding defeat against Iran.
Transcript
Two key developments took place since my last video today that conclusively show the total defeat of the so-called most
secondspowerful military in the world against Iran. Donald Trump has just conceded in his own way when he was asked by a Fox
secondsNews reporter that why he was not sending his own warship since he has claimed to destroy the sea mine in the
secondsstate of Hormuz. His reply will leave absolutely no doubt in anyone's mind that the US hasn't destroyed the sea
secondsmines in the state of Hormos after all and he is very scared of sending his own country's warships through this certain
secondsdeath trap. Then Trump's Jewish envoy Steve Witkov tried to manipulate the sentiments surrounding the international crude oil prices with a bald-faced lie.
secondsBut Iranian foreign minister Syad Basaraki has wasted no time in busting that lie. This would be the broad focus
secondsof my video tonight. The Iranians are busy teaching the Americans and Israeli terrorists what unconventional warfare really means.
minute, secondsThey are leaving no stone unturned in humiliating the so-called most powerful military in the world at every single
minute, secondsstep. First, Trump lashed out at his own NATO allies on the th day of the illegal war that he started against
minute, secondsIran. Why? because these countries firmly rejected Trump's desperate cry for help and refused to come to his
minute, secondsmilitary's rescue against Iran. And if that wasn't enough, a Fox News representative today exposed him
minute, secondsfurther. Watch this clip and decide if there is any doubt in anyone's mind about Trump's fears of the Iranians in
minute, secondsthe state of Formuz. Now that you've announced that the US has destroyed all of Iran's mine laying ships, why can't
minute, secondsthe US just immediately reopen the straight of Hormuz?
minute, secondsWell, we could, but it takes two to tango. We have to get people to take their billion dollar ship and and, you know, drive it up.
minutes, secondshave uh when when Pepe has his big sugar ships coming around and they cost a
minutes, secondsbillion dollars and we say I think it's okay now Pepe take your ship drive it through the straighta he may say let me
minutes, secondswait a little while because it takes it takes uh ship owners and the you know
minutes, secondsthese ships are very expensive they could cost up to $billion so they don't want to take a chance G I
minutes, secondsthink we I think you'll be okay. They got to know it. So they don't have to set, you know, we don't know if they even set any minds, but the thought that
minutes, secondsthey may have is enough to keep people from saying we don't need it.
minutes, secondsThen this happened. billionaire Jewish American property tycoon and Trump's friend Steve Witkov tried to push a fake
minutesnarrative claiming that he had activated a diplomatic channel with Arachi in recent days. This was solely aimed at
minutes, secondscalming the sentiments in international market due to the soaring oil prices.
minutes, secondsThe US knows about the catastrophic impact on the global economy, including its own economy, due to sustained blockade of the state of Hormuz.
minutes, secondsWitkov's propaganda didn't last long. It was initiated to control the damage caused by the rising oil prices. But
minutes, secondsArashi busted his lies when he wrote this moments ago. He wrote, and I quote,
minutes, seconds"My last contact with Mr. Vitkov was prior, this is important, prior to his employer's decision to kill diplomacy
minutes, secondswith another illegal military attack on Iran. Any claim to the contrary appears geared solely to mislead oil traders and
minutes, secondsthe public. End quote. That's what happens when you have a real state guy to act up as a diplomat. This Witkov guy
minutes, secondswas enjoying the thrill of war when Iran was being bombed and its supreme leader assassinated along with his daughter and
minutes, secondsgrandchildren. He was appearing on US media outlets to condemn Iran, Israel.
minutes, secondsBut we can also see now with this mis this offensive missile shield that Iran had to in other words protect the
minutes, secondsnuclear effort that and and what it's doing the havoc that it's raising out there with Middle Eastern countries. I
minutes, secondsmean what they're doing is basically degrading any support they had in the region has been has been substantially degraded because nobody nobody wants
minutes, secondsthem as a neighbor. Who who would who would want this sort of activity?
minutes, secondsIn fact, Trump had told us that he decided to illegally attack Iran after Witkov this chap Witov and the US
minutes, secondspresident's own Jewish son-in-law Jared Kushner advised him to do so. The situation was very quickly approaching
minutes, secondsthe point of no return and the United States found it intolerable in my opinion based on what Steve and Jared and Pete and others were telling me.
minutes, secondsMarco so involved that I thought that they were going to attack us. I thought they would if we didn't do this at the time we did it. I think they had in mind to attack us.
minutes, secondsSo why create this fake narrative now?
minutes, secondsWitkov should back his president in trying to defeat Iran if the deranged occupant of the White House hasn't already done so. Meanwhile, Arachi has doubled down on his previous comments,
minutes, secondsreiterating his country's resolve to take the war to its logical end.
minutes, secondsfor
minutes, secondsJangui also did something phenomenal actually
minutes, secondsspectacular today. He announced that the state of Hormuz was shut only for those countries who sided with the genocidal
minutes, secondsmaniacs of the US and the settler colony.
minutes, secondsThey are asking other countries to come and help them so that the straight of Hormuz remains open which of course from our perspective it is open.
minutes, secondIt is only closed to our enemies.
minutes, secondsWhy is this important? What this means is that Iran is now calling the shots on the state of Hormos and who would be
minutes, secondsallowed to take their ship through this waterway safely. In fact, Iran has effectively established its superiority
minutes, secondsin the region as an undisputed superpower. The so-called most powerful military is busy sending desperate pleas
minutes, secondsfor help to Europeans and Chinese, but Iran is busy strengthening its grip over the regional power equation. The kind of
minutes, secondslunatics who are currently running the US government can be seen by this response from Trump. He publicly admitted and in fact with visible annoyance that no one had warned him,
minutes, secondsnot even his own group of so-called experts about Iran's retaliatory capabilities.
minutes, secondsYou were talking about Iran a couple times today and what they did after Epic Fury began. You said they hitQar, Saudi Arabia, UAE, Bahrain, Kuwait. Nobody
minutes, secondsexpected that. We were shocked. Are you surprised that nobody briefed you ahead of time that that might be their retaliation?
minutes, secondsNobody. Nobody. No, no, no, no. The greatest experts, nobody thought they were going to hit. They were I wouldn't say friendly countries. They were like neutral. They were they lived with them
minutes, secondsfor years. Look, look what happened in the last two weeks. They weren't supposed to go after all these other
minutes, secondscountries in the Middle East. Those missiles were set to go after them. So they hit Qatar, Saudi Arabia, UAE,
minutes, secondsBahrain, Kuwait. Nobody expected that. We were shocked.
minutes, secondsMeanwhile, the US is reportedly planning to send more troops with an intention to launch a ground invasion. The Iranians
minutes, secondsare literally waiting for this moment so that they can recreate another Vietnam for the Americans. These are the words of the Iranian deputy foreign minister.
minutes, secondsDominic W from studies. Good to see you. Good to see you. Please have a seat.
minutes, secondThere's a lot of concern that the next move for your enemies is putting boots on the ground. Maybe taking Hog Island,
minutes, secondsthat very important oil terminal. If they do that, then they have your economy uh by the throat, don't they?
minutes, secondsThen then they could destroy your government's ability to keep its grip on power. Look, even suggesting that that a
minutes, secondsforeign country can put boots on the ground of another country, invade another country, occupy the land of
minutes, secondsanother country is is something very much rogue, very reckless, illegal and and and against all international no
minutes, secondslaw. There is no mandate for Americans to do that. And they are doing this because they they are so drunk of of poverty. They think that they can do
minutes, secondswhatever they want. And this is not the case.
minutes, secondsThere are thousands of US Marines on the way. What happens if they get used? Do you think we defend?
minutes, secondsWhat does that mean though for these Marines if they were to land in K Island? Uh just read what happened in Vietnam.
minutes, secondsLook, there's absolutely no confusion amongst anyone who has followed Iran closely about Islamic Republic's defense
minutes, secondsor military capabilities. Iran has been preparing for this moment for years.
minutes, secondsThis was a defense expert, Robert Fox on the right-wing British media outlet GB News.
minutes, secondsThe Iranians, I think, including the wherever he is, the new Supreme Leader,
minutes, secondshave been better prepared for this than we may have thought. It is now clear particularly the IRS GC,
minutes, secondsthe Revolutionary Guard Corps, was ready for this after June last year. M they a lot had been taken out and they
minutes, secondsknew a lot more was coming and just quickly that it's clear in detail that they
minutes, secondsuh spread they diversified their command throughout the provinces through various centers and that's why they've
minutes, secondshad this ability not quite of surprise but to have kept the antagonist particularly
minutes, secondsAmerica guessing all the time and and it is quite serious. Yes, that they can
minutes, secondsclaim that they're winning, but Iran has closed the straits of Hormuz and hit the
minutes, secondsgreat oil terminal of Fajara. That is probably the most significant thing that's happened in the last hours.
minutes, secondsThe US and the settler colony can run out of their interceptor missiles, but Iran has domestic factories literally
minutes, secondsaround the country that produce sophisticated drones and ballistic missiles every day without being caught
minutes, secondsby the American satellites. Today, Iran confirmed that it has so far only fired ballistic missiles. Now, you do your
minutes, secondsmaths on Iran's ability to sustain this war, even if you were to believe the so-called Western experts who said that Iran only had ballistic missiles.
minutesTrump is fast realizing, in fact, he must be realizing why he chose to go along the advice of a dreaded war criminal wanted by the International
minutes, secondsCriminal Court. His one action has effectively made him an object of ridicule and hate in his own country and
minutes, secondsleft him isolated globally as the world now sees the cowardice of the US military. Meanwhile, Iran has continued
minutes, secondsto pound the settler colony with missiles and drones. It has also caused large-scale destructions in the occupied
minutes, secondsPalestinian territories. Its renewed attack on the UAE has left Dubai paralyzed once again. You can visit our
minutes, secondstelegram channel to watch videos related to these retaliatory strikes. Details are on the screen and also in the
minutes, secondsdescription of this video. That's it for me. Thank you very much for your support of this platform and our journalism. If you haven't subscribed to my channel,
minutes, secondsplease do so because that's one of the many ways you can support independent journalism. God bless you all.
Janta Ka Reporter
Mar 16, 2026
US President Donald Trump has expressed his astonishment and annoyance at Iran's ability to retaliate so hard in the wake of US strikes against the Islamic Republic. Meanwhile, his envoy, Steve Witkoff, claimed to activate a diplomatic channel with Tehran for talks. But Iranian Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi said that this was not true and that the US was attempting to mislead oil traders and its own public. Rifat Jawaid says this is another example of Trump conceding defeat against Iran.
Transcript
Two key developments took place since my last video today that conclusively show the total defeat of the so-called most
secondspowerful military in the world against Iran. Donald Trump has just conceded in his own way when he was asked by a Fox
secondsNews reporter that why he was not sending his own warship since he has claimed to destroy the sea mine in the
secondsstate of Hormuz. His reply will leave absolutely no doubt in anyone's mind that the US hasn't destroyed the sea
secondsmines in the state of Hormos after all and he is very scared of sending his own country's warships through this certain
secondsdeath trap. Then Trump's Jewish envoy Steve Witkov tried to manipulate the sentiments surrounding the international crude oil prices with a bald-faced lie.
secondsBut Iranian foreign minister Syad Basaraki has wasted no time in busting that lie. This would be the broad focus
secondsof my video tonight. The Iranians are busy teaching the Americans and Israeli terrorists what unconventional warfare really means.
minute, secondsThey are leaving no stone unturned in humiliating the so-called most powerful military in the world at every single
minute, secondsstep. First, Trump lashed out at his own NATO allies on the th day of the illegal war that he started against
minute, secondsIran. Why? because these countries firmly rejected Trump's desperate cry for help and refused to come to his
minute, secondsmilitary's rescue against Iran. And if that wasn't enough, a Fox News representative today exposed him
minute, secondsfurther. Watch this clip and decide if there is any doubt in anyone's mind about Trump's fears of the Iranians in
minute, secondsthe state of Formuz. Now that you've announced that the US has destroyed all of Iran's mine laying ships, why can't
minute, secondsthe US just immediately reopen the straight of Hormuz?
minute, secondsWell, we could, but it takes two to tango. We have to get people to take their billion dollar ship and and, you know, drive it up.
minutes, secondshave uh when when Pepe has his big sugar ships coming around and they cost a
minutes, secondsbillion dollars and we say I think it's okay now Pepe take your ship drive it through the straighta he may say let me
minutes, secondswait a little while because it takes it takes uh ship owners and the you know
minutes, secondsthese ships are very expensive they could cost up to $billion so they don't want to take a chance G I
minutes, secondsthink we I think you'll be okay. They got to know it. So they don't have to set, you know, we don't know if they even set any minds, but the thought that
minutes, secondsthey may have is enough to keep people from saying we don't need it.
minutes, secondsThen this happened. billionaire Jewish American property tycoon and Trump's friend Steve Witkov tried to push a fake
minutesnarrative claiming that he had activated a diplomatic channel with Arachi in recent days. This was solely aimed at
minutes, secondscalming the sentiments in international market due to the soaring oil prices.
minutes, secondsThe US knows about the catastrophic impact on the global economy, including its own economy, due to sustained blockade of the state of Hormuz.
minutes, secondsWitkov's propaganda didn't last long. It was initiated to control the damage caused by the rising oil prices. But
minutes, secondsArashi busted his lies when he wrote this moments ago. He wrote, and I quote,
minutes, seconds"My last contact with Mr. Vitkov was prior, this is important, prior to his employer's decision to kill diplomacy
minutes, secondswith another illegal military attack on Iran. Any claim to the contrary appears geared solely to mislead oil traders and
minutes, secondsthe public. End quote. That's what happens when you have a real state guy to act up as a diplomat. This Witkov guy
minutes, secondswas enjoying the thrill of war when Iran was being bombed and its supreme leader assassinated along with his daughter and
minutes, secondsgrandchildren. He was appearing on US media outlets to condemn Iran, Israel.
minutes, secondsBut we can also see now with this mis this offensive missile shield that Iran had to in other words protect the
minutes, secondsnuclear effort that and and what it's doing the havoc that it's raising out there with Middle Eastern countries. I
minutes, secondsmean what they're doing is basically degrading any support they had in the region has been has been substantially degraded because nobody nobody wants
minutes, secondsthem as a neighbor. Who who would who would want this sort of activity?
minutes, secondsIn fact, Trump had told us that he decided to illegally attack Iran after Witkov this chap Witov and the US
minutes, secondspresident's own Jewish son-in-law Jared Kushner advised him to do so. The situation was very quickly approaching
minutes, secondsthe point of no return and the United States found it intolerable in my opinion based on what Steve and Jared and Pete and others were telling me.
minutes, secondsMarco so involved that I thought that they were going to attack us. I thought they would if we didn't do this at the time we did it. I think they had in mind to attack us.
minutes, secondsSo why create this fake narrative now?
minutes, secondsWitkov should back his president in trying to defeat Iran if the deranged occupant of the White House hasn't already done so. Meanwhile, Arachi has doubled down on his previous comments,
minutes, secondsreiterating his country's resolve to take the war to its logical end.
minutes, secondsfor
minutes, secondsJangui also did something phenomenal actually
minutes, secondsspectacular today. He announced that the state of Hormuz was shut only for those countries who sided with the genocidal
minutes, secondsmaniacs of the US and the settler colony.
minutes, secondsThey are asking other countries to come and help them so that the straight of Hormuz remains open which of course from our perspective it is open.
minutes, secondIt is only closed to our enemies.
minutes, secondsWhy is this important? What this means is that Iran is now calling the shots on the state of Hormos and who would be
minutes, secondsallowed to take their ship through this waterway safely. In fact, Iran has effectively established its superiority
minutes, secondsin the region as an undisputed superpower. The so-called most powerful military is busy sending desperate pleas
minutes, secondsfor help to Europeans and Chinese, but Iran is busy strengthening its grip over the regional power equation. The kind of
minutes, secondslunatics who are currently running the US government can be seen by this response from Trump. He publicly admitted and in fact with visible annoyance that no one had warned him,
minutes, secondsnot even his own group of so-called experts about Iran's retaliatory capabilities.
minutes, secondsYou were talking about Iran a couple times today and what they did after Epic Fury began. You said they hitQar, Saudi Arabia, UAE, Bahrain, Kuwait. Nobody
minutes, secondsexpected that. We were shocked. Are you surprised that nobody briefed you ahead of time that that might be their retaliation?
minutes, secondsNobody. Nobody. No, no, no, no. The greatest experts, nobody thought they were going to hit. They were I wouldn't say friendly countries. They were like neutral. They were they lived with them
minutes, secondsfor years. Look, look what happened in the last two weeks. They weren't supposed to go after all these other
minutes, secondscountries in the Middle East. Those missiles were set to go after them. So they hit Qatar, Saudi Arabia, UAE,
minutes, secondsBahrain, Kuwait. Nobody expected that. We were shocked.
minutes, secondsMeanwhile, the US is reportedly planning to send more troops with an intention to launch a ground invasion. The Iranians
minutes, secondsare literally waiting for this moment so that they can recreate another Vietnam for the Americans. These are the words of the Iranian deputy foreign minister.
minutes, secondsDominic W from studies. Good to see you. Good to see you. Please have a seat.
minutes, secondThere's a lot of concern that the next move for your enemies is putting boots on the ground. Maybe taking Hog Island,
minutes, secondsthat very important oil terminal. If they do that, then they have your economy uh by the throat, don't they?
minutes, secondsThen then they could destroy your government's ability to keep its grip on power. Look, even suggesting that that a
minutes, secondsforeign country can put boots on the ground of another country, invade another country, occupy the land of
minutes, secondsanother country is is something very much rogue, very reckless, illegal and and and against all international no
minutes, secondslaw. There is no mandate for Americans to do that. And they are doing this because they they are so drunk of of poverty. They think that they can do
minutes, secondswhatever they want. And this is not the case.
minutes, secondsThere are thousands of US Marines on the way. What happens if they get used? Do you think we defend?
minutes, secondsWhat does that mean though for these Marines if they were to land in K Island? Uh just read what happened in Vietnam.
minutes, secondsLook, there's absolutely no confusion amongst anyone who has followed Iran closely about Islamic Republic's defense
minutes, secondsor military capabilities. Iran has been preparing for this moment for years.
minutes, secondsThis was a defense expert, Robert Fox on the right-wing British media outlet GB News.
minutes, secondsThe Iranians, I think, including the wherever he is, the new Supreme Leader,
minutes, secondshave been better prepared for this than we may have thought. It is now clear particularly the IRS GC,
minutes, secondsthe Revolutionary Guard Corps, was ready for this after June last year. M they a lot had been taken out and they
minutes, secondsknew a lot more was coming and just quickly that it's clear in detail that they
minutes, secondsuh spread they diversified their command throughout the provinces through various centers and that's why they've
minutes, secondshad this ability not quite of surprise but to have kept the antagonist particularly
minutes, secondsAmerica guessing all the time and and it is quite serious. Yes, that they can
minutes, secondsclaim that they're winning, but Iran has closed the straits of Hormuz and hit the
minutes, secondsgreat oil terminal of Fajara. That is probably the most significant thing that's happened in the last hours.
minutes, secondsThe US and the settler colony can run out of their interceptor missiles, but Iran has domestic factories literally
minutes, secondsaround the country that produce sophisticated drones and ballistic missiles every day without being caught
minutes, secondsby the American satellites. Today, Iran confirmed that it has so far only fired ballistic missiles. Now, you do your
minutes, secondsmaths on Iran's ability to sustain this war, even if you were to believe the so-called Western experts who said that Iran only had ballistic missiles.
minutesTrump is fast realizing, in fact, he must be realizing why he chose to go along the advice of a dreaded war criminal wanted by the International
minutes, secondsCriminal Court. His one action has effectively made him an object of ridicule and hate in his own country and
minutes, secondsleft him isolated globally as the world now sees the cowardice of the US military. Meanwhile, Iran has continued
minutes, secondsto pound the settler colony with missiles and drones. It has also caused large-scale destructions in the occupied
minutes, secondsPalestinian territories. Its renewed attack on the UAE has left Dubai paralyzed once again. You can visit our
minutes, secondstelegram channel to watch videos related to these retaliatory strikes. Details are on the screen and also in the
minutes, secondsdescription of this video. That's it for me. Thank you very much for your support of this platform and our journalism. If you haven't subscribed to my channel,
minutes, secondsplease do so because that's one of the many ways you can support independent journalism. God bless you all.
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