Israel built secret desert base in Iraq to support war on Iran: Report. Israeli airstrikes targeted Iraqi counter-terror forces that discovered the base in the vast western desert region The Cradle News Desk MAY 10, 2026 https://thecradle.co/articles-id/37608
Israel set up a secret military outpost in the Iraqi desert to support its bombing campaign against Iran and carried out airstrikes against Iraqi troops to protect it, the Wall Street Journal reported on 10 May, citing people familiar with the matter, including US officials.
Israel built the outpost for use by its special forces and as a logistical hub for the Israeli air force shortly before the war against Iran was launched on 28 February.
Search-and-rescue teams were stationed at the outpost in case Israeli pilots carrying out bombing missions against Iran were shot down.
After the war began, an Iraqi counter-terrorism force driving in a convoy of Humvees was sent to investigate the base after a local shepherd reported unusual military activity in the area, including helicopter flights.
Israel reportedly launched airstrikes to prevent the convoy from approaching the area, killing one soldier and injuring two others.
The airstrike was widely reported in Iraqi and Arab media, causing speculation about the identity of the foreign troops occupying the base.
Iraqi authorities attributed the attack to US forces.
However, US forces were not involved in the attack, the person familiar with the matter told the WSJ.
The base, established in Iraq’s vast western desert, helped support Tel Aviv's military operations against Tehran, located 1,000 miles away, including thousands of airstrikes and potentially special forces operations in Iranian territory.
“Israeli air force special forces, trained to carry out commando operations in enemy territory, were also present on the base,” the WSJ wrote, citing one of the people familiar with the matter.
In early March, the head of the Israeli air force, Tomer Bar, made a vague reference to such covert operations within Iran.
“These days, fighters from special units of the air force are conducting special missions which could ignite the imagination,” Bar stated.
US forces set up a similar makeshift forward-operating base within Iran that was allegedly used in a mission to rescue US airmen whose plane was shot down in early April.
The incident gained wide attention in the media, as the US was forced to destroy two US C-130 Hercules military transport planes abandoned during the alleged rescue operation.
Iraq’s western desert is an ideal location to establish temporary outposts used for reconnaissance missions ahead of military operations, stated Michael Knights, the head of research for Horizon Engage, a strategic advisory firm.
He told the WSJ that US Special Forces established similar outposts during the 1991 and 2003 wars against the government of Saddam Hussein.
“People living in the Iraqi desert have witnessed strange activity over the years, from militant groups like Islamic State [ISIS] to special operations teams, and have learned to stay away,” Knights told the WSJ.
He said locals have told him of unusual helicopter activity in the area since the war on Iran began two months ago.
After ISIS invaded western Iraq from Syria in 2014, conquering major cities such as Ramadi and Mosul, Iraqi lawmakers regularly accused US and allied forces of covertly dropping weapons and supplies to ISIS militants by helicopter.
In early 2015, the head of the Iraqi Parliament’s National Security and Defense Committee, Hakem al-Zameli, announced that the helicopters of the so-called US-led anti-ISIS coalition were dropping weapons and foodstuffs for ISIS militants in the southern parts of Tikrit.
He stated that he had documents and photos showing that the US Apache helicopters airdropped foodstuffs and weapons for ISIS.
Further, the head of the Anbar Provincial Council, Khalaf Tarmouz, stated that US and Israeli-made weapons had been discovered in areas purged of ISIS militants.
“We have discovered weapons made in the US, European countries, and Israel from the areas liberated from ISIS’s control in the Al-Baqdadi region,” the Al-Ahad news website quoted Tarmouz as saying.
Western sources have confirmed that ISIS was receiving weapons purchased in Eastern Europe by the US military at the height of the organization’s military campaign in Iraq.
After an exhaustive three-year investigation, EU-funded Conflict Armament Research (CAR) found that the weapons funneled to Syria by the US and Saudi Arabia between 2014 and 2017 were quickly passed on to ISIS, at times within just “days or weeks” of their purchase.
CAR concluded that US and Saudi-purchased weapons “significantly augmented the quantity and quality of weapons available to [ISIS] forces—in numbers far beyond those that would have been available to the group through battlefield capture alone.”
Sources tell me they are almost certainly bringing Isis fighters into the region as they are alleged to have done many times before.
Iraq’s parliament is set to summon the defense and interior ministers, along with senior security commanders, following the report. According to Al-Araby Al-Jadeed, citing an Iraqi parliamentary source, lawmakers intend to question officials about how such a base could have operated on Iraqi territory. A security source told the newspaper that the area identified in the report is now clear and that no military forces remain there.
I have just read the response from Iran’s so-called “Representatives.” I don’t like it — TOTALLY UNACCEPTABLE! Thank you for your attention to this matter. President DONALD J. TRUMP
Trump gets Iran’s response; Macron’s U-turn on helping US after Iranian warning | Janta Ka Reporter Janta Ka Reporter May 10, 2026
Iran has responded to Donald Trump's peace offer but insisted on ending the conflicting first and discussing the nuclear programme later. Trump has meanwhile hinted at resuming the military strikes against Iran. Elsewhere, French President Emmanuel Macron has been forced to drop the idea of sending a warship to help the US military after Iran warned both the UK and France of dire consequences. Rifat Jawaid argues that today's developments show the fear of the Iranian military in the western world.
Transcript
Many developments related to Iran. It has been a pretty busy day today. First, Iran has responded to Donald Trump's peace proposal. But the deranged occupant of the White House has threatened to launch more military strikes against Iran immediately after his war criminal Israeli boss Benjamin Netanyahu told an American TV channel that he still had some unfinished goals in Iran. Elsewhere, French President Emanuel Macron quickly performs a U-turn on his plans to send French warships to Iran after the Islamic Republic issues chilling threats to the UK and France. Meanwhile, a top American lawmaker has revealed the true extent of ammunition shortage in the US military following Trump's war of choice against Iran. This would be the broad focus of my video tonight. Also in this video, a look at the teachers who the US and Israeli terrorist slaughtered alongside 170 plus girls from an elementary school in their barbaric attack in Minab. So please stay tuned. So the day top story has been the Iranian response to the US proposal on the peace talks. Iran today sent its response to Pakistan. Whilst there was no clarity on the content of the response, an Iranian news agency reported that the country's response included the need to end the war and ensure maritime security while discussing Iran's nuclear program on a later date. This was another proof of Iran refusing to surrender to Trump's bullying tactics. Yesterday, the Iranian foreign ministry spokesperson, Ismile Bakay, had made it abundantly clear that Iran wasn't going to be bothered by the deadline imposed by the Israeli lap dog in the White House. You can watch that 2 minutesvideo here. The Iranian response led to two notable developments. First, Trump displayed more of his mental derangement when he told an American media outlet that his country had won the war against Iran, adding that the Iranians didn't know in their own minds that they had been militarily defeated. These are the utterances of the man who is supposed to be the most powerful person. Then this brain dead man said that his military's victory against Iran was so emphatic that it still needed two more weeks of active military engagement. Does it even make sense to you? But wait, more gold nuggets are yet to come. First watch this clip from the Full Measure TV show with Cheryl. Now, just when we thought Sunday's dose of brain rot stuff emerging out of the White House was enough for the day, we were in for a root shock. We witnessed this immediately after bloodthirsty Israeli terrorist Benjamin Netanyahu told an American TV channel that his goals on Iran weren't finished yet. He explicitly implied that there was a need for a special military operation inside Iran to bring the 450 kgs of highly enriched uranium. But he hinted that this should be done by the US military personnel and not the Israeli terrorist. This war criminal isn't going to have his bunch of terrorists killed by the Iranians. Just see how he evades the question as soon as the presenter asks him if this operation would be conducted jointly by the Israeli. No sooner did this Israeli terrorist make it clear that he wasn't happy with the outcome of the Iran war. Trump posted this on social media and I quote, "For 47 years, the Iranians have been tapping us along, 4 minuteskeeping us waiting, killing our people with their roadside bombs, destroying protests, and recently wiping out 42,000 innocent unarmed protesters and laughing at our now great again country. They will be laughing no longer," President Donald J. Trump. End quote. However, Iran's army spokesperson Muhammad Alaminia has this to say to Trump and his Israeli masters. Foreign speech. Foreign speech. Foreign speech. Foreign speech. Foreign speech. Foreign speech. Then the Iranian embassy in Sierra Leon posted this video claiming that a bunch of Iranian speedboats were chasing a US warship away in the Persian Gulf. of But it is abundantly clear that the Israeli lab dog from the White House is determined to do everything in his capacity to make his terrorist boss happy, even if it means sacrificing American lives and compounding the misery of average Americans. Trump's energy secretary, Chris Wright, told the face the nation on CBS TV that Americans should be prepared to pay significantly more on fuel due to the Iranian chokeold of the state of Ormus. The all-time record high in gas prices was five bucks back during the Biden administration in 2022. It lasted that that real spike for about eight weeks time with this conflict. You had said last month that prices had already peaked. You advised the president. What are you advising him now? Well, the main advice we're do we're giving right now is 47year long conflict. The world simply cannot live with a nuclear armed Iran. Everyone in this government knows it. In fact, everyone in the opposition party in our country knows that as well. That is the that is the overall objective, not just for peace and freedom, but for energy markets. a nuclear armed Iran could threaten a major oil and gas producing region for but you're not you're not saying you're you've got to come to a nuclear agreement before the straight of Hormuz is opened because that that could take a lot of time as you know nuclear deals are really complex well if Obama made a complex deal because it didn't end their program well you get to keep the program you keep enriching but do it a little bit slower and we'll send you a bunch of money that was clearly a failed thing President Trump is a much clearer black and white stronger leader which means we're going to end your nuclear program. It's not a crazy long negotiation. It may take a week. It may take a few weeks, but that's not a many monthsl long negotiation. We're going to end the nuclear program, but gas prices have not peaked at this point. I don't know the future of of gas prices. Well, they climbed o over the past week. We're also hearing from the airline lobby ticket prices aren't going to go down in the summer or the fall. Saudi Aramco CEO said reopening routes is not the same as normalizing a market deprived of a billion barrels of oil. None of these problems are going to end quickly. Ending the Iran nuclear program is a tough challenge. Isn't it clear that members of the US administration are behaving like headless chickens? One reason why Trump and his minions in the US government have gone nuts is because of the humiliation inflicted by the Iranians during the war. After the Wall Street Journal and CNN, now even the Washington Post has admitted that the Iranian military had caused far more damages to the US military infrastructure than what was previously reported. Such has been the drubbing by the Iranian armed forces that there is an acute shortage of ammunition in the US military. Don't take my word for it. This is a top American senator Mark Kelly who said this just a few hours ago. We've been briefed by the Pentagon on specific munitions. Actually, it's been pretty detailed on tomahawks, attackums, SM3s, that rounds, uh, Patriot rounds. So, those interceptor rounds to defend ourselves. And the numbers are, I think it's fair to say it's shocking the, uh, how deep we have gone into these magazines. Uh, because this president got our country into this without a strategic goal, without a plan, without a timeline. And because of that, we've expended a lot of munitions. And that means the American people are less safe. Whether it's a conflict in the Western Pacific, uh, with China or somewhere else in the world, the munitions are depleted. You may have seen me ask the Secretary of Defense this question about how long it's going to take to replenish. We're talking about years. Well, you know, Admiral Paparo, the head of US Pacific Command, was recently asked in front of Congress about American readiness and whether the diversion to the Middle East was hurting it. He said he did not see any real cost on our ability to deter China. From what you have heard when when you say it's shocking, do you think that the US would be able to defend for example Taiwan if China tries to move against it or are you saying we are not in a position to do that right now? Well, it all depends on the length of a conflict. You know, a conflict that lasts uh a matter of days or just weeks. I think we're well positioned to do that. If a conflict goes on for months or years, when it takes years to replenish some of these munitions, of course, we're going to be in a worse posture than we otherwise would be in if this war in Iran didn't happen. But Trump has won this war in his fantasy world. Remember 50 days ago, this Israeli clown in the White House had warned Iran to open the state of Hormuz within or face consequences. Iran didn't bother paying heed to his threats. This question was posed to the US ambassador to the UN, Mike WS. His reply is another indictment on the cumulative intellect of American politicians. But Mr. Ambassador, it was 50 days ago that President Trump posted a warning to the Iranians saying they had to fully open without threat the straight. 50 days ago, nothing happened and the straight is still closed. Well, one Martha, I think we should take a step back. 50 days to deal with a 50year-old problem. And by the way, this isn't the first time Iran has either threatened or actually done this. I mean, we had the tanker wars where uh they struck one of our ships with a mine back in the 80s and we took out under Reagan uh half of the Iranian Navy. That said, that's why we're pushing now uh another UN resolution that says Iran cannot do this. No country can do what Iran is doing in international waterways. Joining Trump and clowns from his administration is the CNN which claimed today that US intelligence have assessed that Iran's new supreme leader Mushtab Ali Kame is playing a critical role in shaping the war strategy alongside senior Iranian officials. Isn't it ironic that the leader the CNN claimed was now shaping the war was first declared dead by Trump and then Americans and Israeli terrorist later said that he was so badly injured that he wasn't in a position to make any decision let alone shaping the war. But that's the American political class and its compromised media for you. The problem is the difficulty in admitting that Iran has turned out to be a pain in the neck for the wider west. Look, yesterday we learned that the UK was sending its warship in the Middle East, presumably to assist the US in ending the Iranian blockade of the estate of France too excitedly had later made a similar announcement. Then Iran issued a chilling warning to both the UK and France for their decision to join the US and Israel in the ongoing war. Poor Macron couldn't even wait to conclude his visit to East Africa as he released this denial from Kenya. He made it abundantly clear that his country had no plans to send its ships to the Persian Gulf, adding that any plans to open the state of Hormos has to be done in consultation with Iran. Now, if this doesn't tell you about the fear of Iran in the Western world, nothing will. In other stories, the rebellion against Zionist British Prime Minister Kmer is gaining momentum. A lot will be clearer tomorrow when parliament convenes. This would be the first time British MPs will gather after Friday's bloodbath faced by the Labor Party. In Lebanon, Israeli terrorists have killed dozens of innocent civilians, including paramedics. These evil monsters have special hatred for health workers, children, babies, and women. I will leave you with this video that captures the American and Israeli barbarity against Iranian school girls and their teachers in Minab. We have talked about more than 170 girls being massacred by the US and Israeli terrorists in that attack. But this video captures the images of 26 beautiful martyr teachers, all women. Oh Lord. Give me your command. got as it from me. Thank you very much for your support of this platform and our journalism. If you haven't subscribed to my channel, please do so because that's one of the many ways you can support independent journalism.
Mohammad Marandi: Strait of Hormuz is ablaze; the US and Iran continue their confrontation in strait by Daniel Davis May 10, 2026
Transcript
The Americans wanted to see if they could intimidate Iran and to see if Iran had been weak because it seems that the Americans continue to believe the propaganda that is being fed, that Iran is falling apart, the the siege is collapsing Iranian society. Perhaps the Mousad is continuing to feed the sort of fake information that they did that actually brought about the war in the first place. That is one interpretation of events that Trump was hoping that maybe Iran was weakened and this was some sort of litmus test to see if maybe the Iranians would back down and let this happened or that the Iranians would be intimidated that American ships are going to be involved. But the Iranians were very steadfast and they said that either the straight of Hormos is open to us and of course the ceasefire in Lebanon and Gaza are are implemented or it's not going to be open to these five countries. Uh but again as I said other countries still use the straight those countries that are not in conflict with Iran. So the the belief is that this was some sort of test to see if the Iranians would be intimidated by the threats made by the United States and obviously they weren't. With uh Sergey Lavrov in his experience with the the country he's fighting against the war against in Ukraine when you hear him talking he'll be very firm on the Russian side but he's very diplomatic in how he engages even with the Ukrainian side. A couple of days ago here, uh, we had Marco Rubio who refers to Iran in a rather disparaging way. So, look, the time's come for Iran to make a sensible choice and it's not easy for them to do that obviously because they have a fracture in their own leadership system and apart from that, I mean, the top people in that government are to say the least um, you know, um, they're insane in the brain. I mean, what what is that something you just dismiss? Does it have an impact when you're told that you must be insane in the brain for all your leaders? Well, I don't know if he really believes any of this or not. And that's the that's the disturbing part because when they say there's a division in the leadership, I mean like how where where does the division arise from? Uh we have a leader. We have a supreme national security council. The Supreme National Cons Security Council is comprised of the speaker of parliament and the head of the judiciary and of course the president leads the council. He's the head of that council. There's a chair who is appointed by uh an agreement between the leader and the president and then you have the military. You have members of cabinet depending on what the issue is. So if it's foreign policy obviously it's the foreign minister. You have and you have parliamentarians that are linked again to the to the issue in this case it would be foreign policy and the supreme national security council whatever it decides if the leader approves that's it and they've decided that the negotiator is the speaker of parliament so where is the fracture where where are the divisions where are the you know the purges like in the US like in the uh in the Pentagon where We had generals, I don't know, removed from power, the secretary of uh the Navy removed or uh Kent uh Joe Kent resigning or we don't have any of that. There's not a single instance that I know of at least. So, I don't know if he really believes this, but this is like the narrative that they repeat. But I do sort of believe I I do believe that in many cases they internalize the narrative. They they believe their own propaganda. they keep saying it and then they ultimately believe it. And I think that's that's um that's more I think that's a a bigger problem than many people actually think. But to call Iranian leaders insane, it I mean I don't think Iranian leaders are sitting down in in anger and they pro they're probably all laughing. But it does make them negotiate tougher. It makes Iran tougher towards the United States. So threats and insults uh I think the Americans really misread Iran completely. Iran is not like I mean the the problem I think that Trump has is that his his mafiaike behavior you know the mafia don where he goes to India and says you know if you don't you know he gives the Indians an offer they can't refuse on tariffs and then they bow down. He goes and kidnaps the Venezuelan president, murders a couple of hundred people in the process and then he he poses, you know, he threatens the Europeans. In the case of Iran, that's not going to work. And the more he does that, the more the Iranians are going to be uh steadfast at the negotiating table. Iran is very different from these other countries. I mean, except for China, I guess. I mean Russia has already been completely sanctioned. So that's a different case altogether. But in the case of China when he engaged in trade warfare the Chinese hit back but no one else did. So I think he was very surprised um by Iran and I think that's because of his ignorance but also because I think many politicians in the United States if not all of them they've drunk the Kool-Aid. They they believe the nonsense that Iran is weak, that it's divided, that it's corrupt, that they're mad mullas and whatever that means. I I have no idea what what they mean by mad mullas. I mean, uh the president is a is a heart surgeon. The speaker of parliament, the chief negotiator is an associate professor at my university. Uh the cabinet, they're all engineers and doctors and 6 minutesphilosophers that Dr. L Jani who was the chair of the supreme national security council. He was a professor at my university before he was murdered and martyed. He was a professor in philosophy, western philosophy. So you know you know this whole you know this whole mad mulla the military they're not they're they're officers like yourself. They were they were you know they're officers and trained at militarymies. So they believe their propaganda. It's imploding. the people hate them and so that makes them believe that all they have to do is give it a little push and it'll collapse. So if you recall, I'm sure that at the beginning of the 12- day war, they said it's over. And Trump back then said Iran, you know, demanded unconditional surrender. But even after the 12- day war, when Iran defeated the Israelis, they the American government didn't learn. So when they brought in ma much more weapons that dwarfed whatever the Israeli regime had which was all American anyway but uh then they came in and after 39 days of war they failed against the country against the armed forces against Iran and still they don't learn so they think okay now we're going to defeat them through the siege and we're going but if they're if they're winning in this siege warfare and you know we saw American senators saying we're starving them there's no food sort of gloating at you know star about starving Iranians which is disgusting but um but no one's starving in Iran you know they believe their own nonsense but well in fact in fact professor I I want to show you one of the things President Trump said Gary we're going to play the one that says Trump won down there uh this is this is how President Trump squares that circle that you're talking about here's how his mental construct is and what he believes you seem optimistic now as we may be closer to a deal what's different about this moment now than in other moments where a deal has seemed close. Well, why do you say they refuse to submit? You don't know that. You don't know what's going on behind USPS a few days ago. Yeah, I know. A few days ago, it's a long time ago. You know, in the world of war a few days ago. No, they want to make a deal badly and we'll see if we get there. If we get there, they can't have nuclear weapons. You know, it's very simple, but uh what's not to submit? So they had a navy with 159 ships and now every ship is blown to pieces and lying at the bottom of the water. They had an air force, lots of planes and they don't have any planes. They don't have any anti-aircraft. They don't have any radar left. Uh their missiles are mostly decimated. They have some they have probably 18 19% but uh not a lot by comparison to what they had. And their leaders are all dead. So I think we won. So he in his mind we won already. So how do you respond to the to the claim that all these elements of the national security capabilities of Iran has been destroyed or defeated and that the siege is starving everybody and soon they're going to have to collapse. How do you respond to that? Well, yesterday I was on Pierce Morgan's show and uh he was saying the same thing that Iran's armed forces are destroyed and everything's wiped out and and he brought some person on the show and that person, you know, said all these things and he said, "I I agree with him." And I said, "Well, then why didn't you just take over?" He said, you know, and that that person said, "For political reasons, they're not taking over the straight of hormones." And I said, "Why didn't you just take over then? If why are you even interviewing me? I asked Pierce Morgan. I mean, if it's over, what's the what's the need to speak with me? You you've won. Go and take over the country and you can expel us from our land like you did to the Palestinians. And then he said, Pierce Morgan said that's what Trump may want to do. So like create another Israel or something. But that's not happening. I mean, it's obvious that uh Trump lost the war. uh the Iranian state is very much there, the armed forces are there. I mean if after 39 days Trump accepted Iran's 10-point plan as the framework for negotiations that was the ultimate humiliation and defeat and after he was criticized heavily by everyone he his spokeswoman said no we threw it in the bin but Iran is negotiating based on those uh 10 principles and Iran has said that we're not negotiating the nuclear program until we have this sorted out. So, you know, and again, the the siege, if the siege is working, then why uh project freedom? If all you have to do is sit back and wait for, you know, Trump, all he has to do is sit back and wait for us to starve. But obviously, and sorry, one other thing I I'll point out here. This is in the news just since we've been on the air uh earlier today here. This is in the Washington Post. US intelligence says Iran can outlast Trump's Hormuz blockade for months. a confidential intelligence assessment delivered to the White House also finds that Iran retains a substantial missile and drone uh arsenal which directly contradicts what he said from the Oval Office. So again, unfortunately, how can an American audience believe anything that our own president says when it's contradicted by now leaked intelligence? But then that gets back to the whole point of where can this go? If that's the truth, and according to what you're telling me it is, that Iran can outlast the siege and that they do still have military capacity, then what kind of a negotiated deal can we have to end this war? Well, you know, your problem is that you're talking about like in a sane world. Fair enough. You're assuming that we're talking about logical people and you want me to go into the head of someone who I think is somewhat insane and a psychopath and hopefully I'll never be in that situation to where I could comprehend such a person. I don't I don't have an answer to your question and I'm sure I'm sure that's the problem that you know all your good analysts because you you bring a people better than I on your show and I've seen your show and I like I really do like your show a lot and you know people who are better than I haven't been able to provide an answer so I'm not going to pretend I know anything that your your other guests you know have been unable to uh provide a good answer for. I I think that ultim I mean I think that there's a high chance that Trump will uh that he will gamble. I'm not saying it will happen, but I think that there's a because he's brought in a lot of troops and a lot of uh of weapons and ammunition. And true, there's a huge shortage of ammunition and all that, but he's most of the from from what I'm hearing from people here, most of the new equipment that he's brought in are is is for land operations. And uh so he spent a lot of money and I'm sure uh and I'm sure it's not just to to bluff. So there must be a high possibility for an attack. Now, personally, I think it's too late for an attack. And I I think we discussed this earlier once when I asked you because you're you're you're the expert and you are I mean I I fought in war, but you are trained you were a trained uh senior officer, so you would know much better than I. And I was saying that when the weather becomes very hot in the in the Arabian Peninsula at the end of uh May or from midmay uh it go it increases very fast and it becomes very very difficult by the end of May. it becomes very difficult to to fight and uh American forces would it would be very you know uh it would be very tough on them and I recall you acknowledging that this this was this would be the case and then if for example there is heavy fighting and they and Trump does start targeting Iran's critical infrastructure as he's threatened to do and let's say take begins to take out Iranian u electrical power plants in in Iran there like I don't know 80 to 100 of them but then on the other side of the Persian Gulf and in Israeli regime Iran will do the same and you know in the Israeli regime well that will cause a set of problems uh but in the Persian Gulf it would be catastrophic because in those in that weather people will all have to leave and so will the US armed forces I mean how could they stay there if there's no electricity so and then you have the trip to Beijing or to I don't if the the summit will be in Beijing or somewhere else, but the trip to China that is in in a week. So, you would think that this is not the right time to carry out a war because it would not have a good impact on the summit in China. And of course, after the summit, you're going to have uh the weather getting worse by the day. But then again, this is Trump. And uh so I I from my from what I'm hearing from people on your show and from my our mutual friends who I'm in contact with, they tell me that the military is saying that this is a very terrible idea. Uh but Trump and the you know remember Joe I mean you remember but uh Joe Kent in his resignation letter it was two months ago he said this war was about the Zionist lobby. I mean there's no nuclear weapon. Uh Iran is not developing one. Trump just says this to to justify the atrocities. Uh Iran is not a threat to the United States. Trump keeps saying Iran is going to make a nuclear weapon. fire them off across the world and bring the world to an end somehow. Uh and that sort of nonsense. He was saying it to little kids a couple of days ago, which is bizarre. Uh but um terrifying little kids, but you know, they bomb kids, so I guess that's okay. But um so when Joe Kent is saying that this is about the Israeli regime and the Zionist lobby, then I think that we should throw rationality out the window. Their priority is not the American people. Their priority is not the Indian economy or the Ugandan economy or the Argentinian people. It's about the Israeli regime. So they want this war and I think that's why there's a good chance that there will be war. Now the calculations in Iran at least among some because I can't say I'm that's what the everyone is saying some people including myself uh is that if the economic situation becomes more tough for the United States at some point senior figures in the United States will start thinking well here we have to prioritize our interest over the Israeli regime's interests. Until now, the United States has been prioritizing the Israeli regime's interests over the American people. And that's why we're seeing inflation and and uh and and the rise of energy costs and so on. But at some point, I think the feeling here is that maybe uh it will get more difficult enough where the the White House or the elites will start saying this is going to get dangerous. uh in the United States because if the economy gets really bad then there could be unrest and then hopefully at that point the decision makers will say well here we have to put the our interest first and then the Israeli regime will have to accept our priorities and that would bring an end to the war. In other words, the United States will I don't think we're going to have peace between Iran and the United States. Um sadly I don't see that pos as being possible with this the elites in the United States thinking and their mentality and their worldview as it is uh you know this Epstein class of people that are in charge. But but I think that we could reach a point where uh there's some sort of agreement to end the war where um the siege is lifted, ships go through, there's a ceasefire in Gaza and the Israeli regime is forced to withdraw from Lebanon and certain conditions are imposed in Gaza. Something like that. I think that is possible. So, so it sounds to me like, tell me if I'm I'm hearing this right, it sounds like the Iranian side is is basically saying we're not in a hurry. We're going to let some time pass by to see if we can put more pressure on you. But there is a sense of urgency on the US side. Now, after President Trump made that statement in the White House yesterday, uh there was an article out in the Wall Street Journal, which I'll show you a bit of here. Um many of the things that it says that now then this this all came out after he spoke yesterday. It says that Iran's uh has to attest that it's not going to get nuclear weapons, a ban on nuclear uh enrichment, dismantlement of fordo detance, and several other things. Then that was me uh echoed on something that was on Fox News last night with Brett Bearer and Jesse Waters. Brett Bearer said he talked to President Trump and his terms hardened. Watch this. Had a phone call with the president a short time ago and he is optimistic about this deal, this memorandum of understanding. thinks it is going to lead to things. He's cautiously optimistic, I should say. Um, but thinks, and I asked him what the time frame would be. He puts it at a week. 20 minutesUm, getting everything wrapped up. So, what's in this deal? This is what we're hearing. Iran must swear off ever having or seeking a nuclear weapon. Cold turkey. Their three main nuke sites must be completely dismantled. And they can never do any work like this ever again underground. If they start digging, we start bombing. Inspections on demand anytime, anywhere. If they throw up roadblocks, harsh penalties. Now, here's the key piece to the deal. No more enrichment. And they hand over all of their enriched uranium. We get it. Now, those are just abject surrender. I mean, you have to give up everything and you get literally nothing except for we'll open up the straight of hormones and you can ship stuff out again. Is there any scenario whereby Iran would agree to any version of that? Well, when I I I never watch Fox News, but when I do see this sort of thing, it's like I I find it amazing that anyone does watch it. And when they say that this is like the most watched news channel in the United States, I you know it's just I I can't comprehend how anyone would find it of any use. First of all, as we know, Iran has never been pursuing nuclear weapons. Joe Kent, you know, intell the Fox News guy says Iran's weapons sites, they keep repeating this as if, you know, it's take it's taken for granted that Iran has nuclear weapons. They know they're lying, but they just say it because it's propaganda. That's that's how it works. You keep talking about their nuclear weapon sites, their weapon sites, their weapon sites, and then it becomes weapon sites. And and by the way, they're all obliterated. We were told that during the, you know, the 12- day war, they were all obliterated. So, you know, which one is it? that ultimately we you know for me it's like we don't even Fox News viewers have any critical thinking without looking at 22 minuteslike your show or other uh programs just looking at the inconsistencies you'd think that some of them at least would have some sense of critical thought no Iran is not going to accept uh any uh infringements on its on its sovereignty that's the whole that the reason why we have this war is because Iran is a so I mean the 1979 revolution was about independence and sovereignty and dignity and honor and uh and of course support for uh the Palestinian people, support for the Cuban people, support for for the South African people at that time was apartheid and all of these were just outrageous positions for Iran to take and especially the Palestinian issue more I more important than anything else for them. But that is really Iran's sin. It's all about it's all about the Palestinian people and Iran's independence. But no, Iran is not going to accept any of that. Iran is willing to have a deal, but we saw Iran's 10point plan that Trump accepted as the framework. None of this. So Iran will have a nuclear program. Yes, Iran says it won't have nuclear weapons and it's fine to have a deal where if they want to have a, you know, mechanism where the International Atomic Energy Agency comes and visits all the sites and that's that we had that for many years. It was Trump that tore that up. Uh it wasn't actually wasn't a particularly good deal for Iran and I think that the administration at that time did not do a good job negotiating the JCPOA and I think President Roani was first and foremost to blame because he was pressuring the foreign ministry to quickly get a deal and so the foreign ministry was forced to be lenient and they we you know and then that allowed uh Obama to cheat Iran because Iran uh carried out his commitments and Obama didn't and but so so the deal was deeply flawed. Iran was will never allow for that deal to be revived. It will have to be improved. But Iran is willing to have a deal where its rights are preserved, but it's uh um it's uh it's easy for everyone to see that it's peaceful. But uh but other than that you know things will be the 10-point
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It’s hard to think of a time when the United States suffered a total defeat in a conflict, a setback so decisive that the strategic loss could be neither repaired nor ignored. The calamitous losses suffered at Pearl Harbor, the Philippines, and throughout the Western Pacific in the first months of World War II were eventually reversed. The defeats in Vietnam and Afghanistan were costly but did not do lasting damage to America’s overall position in the world, because they were far from the main theaters of global competition. The initial failure in Iraq was mitigated by a shift in strategy that ultimately left Iraq relatively stable and unthreatening to its neighbors and kept the United States dominant in the region.
Defeat in the present confrontation with Iran will be of an entirely different character. It can neither be repaired nor ignored. There will be no return to the status quo ante, no ultimate American triumph that will undo or overcome the harm done. The Strait of Hormuz will not be “open,” as it once was. With control of the strait, Iran emerges as the key player in the region and one of the key players in the world. The roles of China and Russia, as Iran’s allies, are strengthened; the role of the United States, substantially diminished. Far from demonstrating American prowess, as supporters of the war have repeatedly claimed, the conflict has revealed an America that is unreliable and incapable of finishing what it started. That is going to set off a chain reaction around the world as friends and foes adjust to America’s failure.
President Trump likes to talk about who has “the cards,” but whether he has any good ones left to play is not clear. The United States and Israel pounded Iran with devastating effectiveness for 37 days, killing much of the country’s leadership and destroying the bulk of its military, yet couldn’t collapse the regime or exact even the smallest concession from it. Now the Trump administration hopes that blockading Iran’s ports will accomplish what massive force could not. It’s possible, of course, but a regime that could not be brought to its knees by five weeks of unrelenting military attack is unlikely to buckle in response to economic pressure alone. Nor does it fear the anger of its populace. As the Iran scholar Suzanne Maloney noted recently, “A regime that slaughtered its own citizens to silence protests in January is fully prepared to impose economic hardships on them now.”
[Max Blumenthal] And the whole reason this is happening is because Donald Trump has decided to threaten Iran with war because he's being nudged by Israel, by Netanyahu, and by his largest donors, Miriam Adelson, and Ron Lauder, a figure who's named constantly in the Epstein files as an associate of Epstein, who was part of Netanyahu's mega group of millionaires and billionaires that would support his political fortunes from within the US, while pushing pro-Israel institutional activism across the West.
This is only happening because Israel is demanding that the US attack Iran, which poses no threat to US national security. This is only happening because the US instrumentalized protests to foment riots, alongside Israeli intelligence, and I assume British intelligence, which left thousands dead in two days of rioting from January 8th to January 9th. And as Wyatt Reed and I detailed in an article at the Grayzone, the death toll has been fabricated, and concocted by sources close to the clown prince Reza Pahlavi, who incited those riots, calling for Iranians to kill government workers, and kill government media workers, and take over institutions. Trump called for Iranians to take over institutions. Monarchist sources are pushing this phony death toll of 30,000, when US media started reporting it in Time magazine. Then the Guardian began reporting it to legitimize it through the voice of the left liberal London intelligencia. And then EU ministers followed by designating the IRGC as a terrorist organization, to give Europe a green light to an attack on Iran on behalf of Israel. And it's being stalled by negotiations in Oman.
Let me make one quick point about those protests. Scott Bessent, the US Treasury Secretary, for the second time, after saying something similar in Davos, has taken credit for the protests, which mutated into very violent, deadly riots in Iran, through the instrumentalization of sanctions, or financial terrorism, against the Iranian economy. And this is his most blatant confession yet.
[Scott Bessent] And what we have done is created a dollar shortage in the country. At a speech at the economic club of New York in March, I outlined the strategy. And it all came to a swift and grand culmination in December when one of the largest banks in Iran went under. There was a run on the bank. The central bank had to print money. The Iranian currency went into free-fall. Inflation exploded. Their currency went into free-all, and inflation exploded. And hence we have seen the Iranian people out on the street.
So he admits it again that sanctions were designed to destabilize Iran and drive riots. And he's taking credit for the riots. These were not peaceful protests. This was a bridge between the 12-day war and the coming assault on Iran.
And in many ways, the riots themselves were a more devastating act of war on Iran than the Israeli assault last June 2025, because it pits Iranians against one another. It pits neighbor against neighbor through economic warfare, through desperation. And that's what many Iranians are telling me, is that this was much more psychologically damaging, because it's coming from within their own society. It reminds me a lot of what took place in Nicaragua in 2018, which the Nicaraguan government defeated.
[Patrick Henningsen] Let's listen to what Trump is saying,
[Trump] "The Pope made a statement. He says Iran can have a nuclear weapon."
[Patrick Henningsen] That's a lie. So Trump is saying the Pope said that Iran should have a nuclear weapon. He's lying about the Pope. The Pope never said that. It's a ridiculous statement. Why would the Pope ever say that? Seriously.
So that's the level of dishonesty we're dealing with here, that this guy will do this in front of the world, in front of the media, to the world's most prominent religious leader, and impugn him, project on him a completely fabricated claim about something he never said. And something he would never say in this universe.
And just the chutzpah of Trump to do that with a straight face. And he wants to be treated as credible. Every second word out of this guy's mouth is a lie. And this is a provable fact. I mean, you need a whole channel to unpack his lies.
But he's not done here. This is a short clip where he's going to squeeze a few more in for us. Listen.
[Trump] Iran cannot have a nuclear weapon. And if the Pope looked at the 42,000 protesters that were killed over the last 2 or 3 months, who had no weapons, no nothing ...
[Patrick Henningsen] Let's take a look at that. You mean the protesters that Trump just admitted two weeks ago, that he sent weapons to? So everything that we said two, three months ago, was correct. Trump's got a big mouth, and he can't keep it down. So he admits that the US was trafficking weapons to so-called peaceful protesters in Iran, that they then used to shoot police and innocent bystanders, and to cause chaos. And then he turns around now, after publicly saying that, and says, "Oh, the Pope needs to look at the 42,000 protesters that were killed." So, now it's 42,000 protesters that the regime allegedly slaughtered.
There's no evidence that the Iranian government killed 42,000 protesters, not even 30,000, not even 10,000, not even 5,000, not even 4,000. The total number of casualties from the US and Israeli backed unrest, and probably British intelligence was involved in covert actions to create violence, as they've done in Ukraine and Syria during the Arab Spring, as they've done in Libya, because it's standard procedure, the official number is 3,117 if I'm not mistaken. And that includes hundreds of police who were burned alive. I've seen the evidence with my own eyes when I was in Iran investigating this very story. Many hundreds of innocent bystanders were killed, and also many of these violent agent provocateurs also lost their life.
This was unrest and instability that was directed and fomented from outside of Iran. It was meant to be a color revolution, to destabilize the country, and then the air strikes would come. Shock and awe. Trump even said during these so-called peaceful protests, which were actually violent provocateuring, he said, "Rise up, and take over your institutions." He said that publicly.
So they had a plan and it failed. So what you're seeing now is a result of that failure. And this guy is still harping on with this lie. Where does this number 40,000 come from? These are all US-based fake Iranian NGO's funded by the US State Department, funded by the National Endowment for Democracy, which are openly CIA cutouts based in New York, like Iran Institute of Human Rights -- there's half a dozen of these -- and Iranian international news, which is an international news site that is an Israeli intelligence clearing house for propaganda against Iran. And they're using that as a source. The whole ecosystem is fake.
So the provenance of this claim that all these protesters were slaughtered in Iran is fake. It's as fake as WMDs in Iraq. Period. They lied to us before. They lie to us constantly to go to war. And they've done it again, the US and Israel.
Let me remind you, this is the Trump administration and Netanyahu joining forces to lie to the American people, to lie to the world, to create a fraudulent pretext, some moral argument to justify this vicious and illegal criminal war that they're currently waging.
So, he's even using this lie to attack the Pope. That's how shameless this decrepit old figure truly is. A really unbelievable guy.
[Daniel Davis] Let's take a look at some of the other specific things Trump said too. First of all, he was trying to talk about the reasons why we had this war, why it was happening in the first place. And he said, it is because Iran's Ayatollah regime slaughtered 45,000 of their own people.
So remember, first it was 3,000, and then they said it might have been 10,000. This was in the buildup in January. Then they said it was 30,000, and it kind of went up from there. And now it's up to 45,000. And the Iranians themselves acknowledged that there were a lot of civilians killed in these protests. They didn't hide from it. As I understand, they actually provided a by-name list, and there were over 3,000 people who were killed. Plus, I think like 500, or several hundred, police forces were also killed in this process.
So they didn't deny it, and they provided what is a plausible number. And I don't have personal knowledge; I can't say for sure how many were killed; but I can say that 3,000 is a pretty reasonable and logical number from the people who I've talked to who were on the ground then, and I've talked to several who were involved in what happened afterwards, about how this whole thing was manifested. So, forgive me for being skeptical. But when I hear people saying, like President Trump, that first it was 10,000, then 30,000, and now 45,000, his numbers just keep growing to make it sound worse and worse and worse, that we had to act against these butchers of their own people. So, the claim is that 45,000 people were killed, which meant we had to go in there.
[Professor Marandi] Everything that the West says is based on wishful thinking. They've been doing that for decades. And when they say the Iranians mass murdered peaceful protesters, and all that nonsense, it's basically propaganda, to reinforce the narrative that this is a "Regime," and it's unpopular. Fine. You can tell the world that this is true, and many people will believe it. But you shouldn't believe it yourself. Because when you believe your own propaganda, your policies will not be based on reality. They'll be based on fake narratives. And then you'lll hit a brick wall.
So they hit a brick wall in Iran. They hit a brick wall in Lebanon. They hit a brick wall in Iraq. Look at Iraq today. Iraq is finally being liberated from NATO and the United States. Finally being liberated. The people are rising up, and they're kicking them out. This is the result of Trump's policies.
And then there's Yemen, and of course in Gaza, Hamas is still an Islamic jihad. They're still there. And after two and a half years of genocide, they haven't eliminated them.
So this whole myth that the axis of resistance has been broken is nonsense.
Some supporters of the war are therefore calling for the resumption of military strikes, but they cannot explain how another round of bombing will accomplish what 37 days of bombing did not. More military action will inevitably lead Iran to retaliate against neighboring Gulf States; the war’s advocates have no response to that, either. Trump halted attacks on Iran not because he was bored but because Iran was striking the region’s vital oil and gas facilities. The turning point came on March 18, when Israel bombed Iran’s South Pars gas field and Iran retaliated by attacking Qatar’s Ras Laffan Industrial City, the world’s largest natural-gas-export plant, causing damage to production capacity that will take years to repair. Trump responded by declaring a moratorium on further strikes against Iran’s energy facilities and then declaring a cease-fire, despite Iran’s not having made a single concession.
The risk calculus that forced Trump to back down a month ago still holds. Even if Trump were to carry out his threat to destroy Iran’s “civilization” through more bombing, Iran would still be able to launch many missiles and drones before its regime went down—assuming it did go down. Just a few successful strikes could cripple the region’s oil and gas infrastructure for years if not decades, throwing the world, and the United States, into a prolonged economic crisis. Even if Trump wanted to bomb Iran as part of an exit strategy—looking tough as a way of masking his retreat—he can’t do that without risking this catastrophe.
If this isn’t checkmate, it’s close. In recent days, Trump has reportedly asked the U.S. intelligence community to assess the consequences of simply declaring victory and walking away. You can’t blame him. Hoping for regime collapse is not much of a strategy, especially when the regime has already survived repeated military and economic pummeling. It could fall tomorrow, or six months from now, or not at all. Trump doesn’t have that much time to wait, as oil climbs toward $150 or even $200 a barrel, inflation rises, and global food and other commodity shortages kick in. He needs a faster resolution.
But any resolution other than America’s effective surrender holds enormous risks that Trump has not so far been willing to take. Those who glibly call on Trump to “finish the job” rarely acknowledge the costs. Unless the U.S. is prepared to engage in a full-scale ground and naval war to remove the current Iranian regime, and then to occupy Iran until a new government can take hold; unless it is prepared to risk the loss of warships convoying tankers through a contested strait; unless it is prepared to accept the devastating long-term damage to the region’s productive capacities likely to result from Iranian retaliation—walking away now could seem like the least bad option. As a political matter, Trump may well feel he has a better chance of riding out defeat than of surviving a much larger, longer, and more expensive war that could still end in failure.
Defeat for the United States, therefore, is not only possible but likely. Here is what defeat looks like.
Iran remains in control of the Strait of Hormuz. The common assumption that, one way or another, the strait will reopen when the crisis ends is unfounded. Iran has no interest in returning to the status quo ante. People talk of a split between hard-liners and moderates in Tehran, but even moderates must understand that Iran cannot afford to let the strait go, no matter how good a deal it thought it could get. For one thing, how reliable is any deal with Trump? He all but boasted of replicating the Japanese surprise attack on Pearl Harbor by approving the killing of Iran’s leadership amid negotiations. The Iranians cannot be sure that Trump won’t decide to attack again within a few months of striking a deal. They also know that the Israelis may attack again, as they never feel constrained from acting when they perceive their interests to be threatened.
And Israel’s interests will be threatened. As many Iran experts have noted, the regime in Tehran currently stands to emerge from the crisis much stronger than it was before the war, having not only retained its potential nuclear capacity but also gained control of an even more effective weapon: the ability to hold the global energy market hostage. When the Iranians talk of “reopening” the strait, they still mean to keep the strait under their control. Iran will be able not only to demand tolls for passage, but to limit transit to those nations with which it has good relations. If a nation behaves in a way that Iran’s rulers don’t like, they will be able to exact punishment merely by slowing, or even threatening to slow, the flow of that nation’s cargo ships in and out of the strait.
The power to close or control the flow of ships through the strait is greater and more immediate than the theoretical power of Iran’s nuclear program. This leverage will allow the leaders in Tehran to force nations to lift sanctions and normalize relations or face penalties. Israel will find itself more isolated than ever, as Iran grows richer, rearms, and preserves its options to go nuclear in the future. It may even find itself unable to go after Iran’s proxies: In a world where Iran wields influence over the energy supply of so many nations, Israel could face enormous international pressure not to provoke Tehran in Lebanon, Gaza, or anywhere else.
The new status quo in the strait will also occasion a substantial shift in relative power and influence both regionally and globally. In the region, the United States will have proved itself a paper tiger, forcing the Gulf and other Arab states to accommodate Iran. As the Iran scholars Reuel Gerecht and Ray Takeyh wrote recently, “The Gulf Arab economies were built under the umbrella of American hegemony. Take that away—and the freedom of navigation that goes with it—and the Gulf states will ineluctably go begging to Tehran.”
They will not be the only ones. All nations that depend on energy from the Gulf will have to work out their own arrangements with Iran. What choice will they have? If the United States with its mighty Navy can’t or won’t open the strait, no coalition of forces with just a fraction of the Americans’ capability will be able to, either. The Anglo-French initiative to police the strait after a cease-fire is a bit of a joke. French President Emmanuel Macron has made it clear that this “coalition” will operate only under peaceful conditions in the strait: It will escort ships, but only if they don’t need an escort. Yet with Iran in control, the strait is not going to be safe again for a long time. China presumably has some influence over Tehran, but even China cannot force open the strait by itself.
One effect of this transformation may be an expanding great-power naval race. In the past, most of the world’s nations, including China, counted on the United States to both prevent and address such emergencies. Now the nations in Europe and Asia that depend on access to the Persian Gulf’s resources are helpless against the loss of energy supplies that are vital to their economic and political stability. How long can they tolerate this before they start building their own fleets, as a means of wielding influence in an every-nation-for-itself world where order and predictability have broken down?
The American defeat in the Gulf will have broader global ramifications as well. The whole world can see that just a few weeks of war with a second-rank power have reduced American weapons stocks to perilously low levels, with no quick remedy in sight. The questions this raises about America’s readiness for another major conflict may or may not prompt Xi Jinping to launch an attack on Taiwan, or Vladimir Putin to step up his aggression against Europe. But at the very least America’s allies in East Asia and Europe must wonder about American staying power in the event of future conflicts.
The global adjustment to a post-American world is accelerating. America’s once-dominant position in the Gulf is just the first of many casualties.
About the Author
Robert Kagan is a contributing writer for The Atlantic, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, and the author, most recently, of Rebellion: How Antiliberalism Is Tearing America Apart—Again.
Iran HITS Qatari Tanker, Downs US F-35 as Trump LOSES IT | Patrick Henningsen Danny Haiphong Streamed live 5 hours ago #iran #trump #iranwar
Patrick Henningsen discusses Iran's latest enforcement measures over the Strait of Hormuz as it punishes ceasefire violations and rejects Trump's ultimatum.
NOTE: At 23:13 I was forced to clip out the segment on Netanyahu's 60 minute interview due to copyright issue. Please see the link here and watch the clip for context into what we talk about afterward: https://x.com/60Minutes/status/205361...
Transcript
Welcome everyone. Welcome back to the show. It's your host Danny Hi Fong. As you can see, I'm joined by Patrick Henningson. He is the founder of 21st Century Wire, independent journalist and geopolitical analyst. Patrick, good to see you again. Great to be with you, Danny. Yes. So, uh let us get started with the uh latest developments uh in the Iran war. Uh it seems like what's going on now is that Iran and the US are exchanging proposals but in the interim period Iran is uh enforcing its uh what it claims is its illegitimate rights over the straight of Hormuz. Uh we saw overnight in the last uh reports from the British media that a Qatari tanker was hit, a cargo ship was hit off of Qatar's coast. There's also reports that uh another Qatari tanker has tried to cross the straight of Hormuz but was denied. And then there are multiple reports now of multiple F-35 uh jets that seemingly were heading from Iranian airspace uh inducing the squawking 770 emergency siren over the Gulf of Oman and having to emergency land uh around the Aldafra air base in the UAE. None of these reports right now are 100% verified, but nonetheless, we're getting reports like this almost every single day uh as the uh continued uh uh control over the straight of roads by Iran uh remains ongoing and the United States attempts to uh starve Iran off with a blockade. But uh what's your assessment of the situation right now Patrick as we enter I think a period where there's a lot of alarm bells rising over the economic situation the rising cost of oil and the China Trump summit that's about to happen. What's your assessment of where things are going and where we are right now? Sure. I I'll start in sequential order of of of the issues that you brought up um just one by one. But the first one is is that military uh dimension and uh th those reports while it's very difficult to confirm it likewise the reports are claims by the Iranians that they hit two US destroyers and did damage you know save any video footage from the nose camera of a drone um it's going to be very difficult to confirm either way obviously the United States not going to admit any damage to any ship full stop they just simply won't um and and then likewise uh the US will claim that they hit Iranian boats or killed uh Iranian naval sailors and so forth and we haven't seen reports in the Iranian media for that. So, which means the US claim is likely not credible because if you're martyed in the war against the US, uh your names and images will be all over the country because it's seen as a honor to be martyed in such a noble conflict uh repelling the American invaders. So, from that point of view, um I I do lean towards the Iranian reporting rather than the US denials or the US claims. Uh so likewise with the F-35 reports, this to me could be potentially interesting uh because what what what are what would F-35 jets be doing? Um if not probing radar, uh using stealth technology to pro probe radar, doing reconnaissance, uh potentially uh involved in a in an a mission of aggression. And then was that mission thwarted or did they get painted by a radar system? Uh this has been done in the past. Uh the Israeli I believe F uh F-35s were painted by an unknown radar system back during uh the previous uh uh hostilities back in June uh which spooked the Israelis apparently reportedly anyway. Um so there are all these possibilities. Um so that means that hostilities are a foot. That's what we can say for sure. The question is when uh it's really everyone I speak to in Iran around this conversation, all the uh you know pundits and experts uh there's a sort of consensual agreement that it's not a question of if but when. So when would be the opportune time. So we can talk about the political uh dimension there. Certainly the the upcoming meeting with Xi Jinping and Trump uh that's something I'll talk about in a moment. But so from that point of view, yes, uh Iran, both Iran and the US and Israel for that matter have benefited from this pause effectively. Um there there have been hostilities there are there is sparring definitely the US is testing the limits on everything naval, air, uh militarily and and gathering intelligence. Likewise, the Iranians are making adjustments to probably everything. Um, and you know, the thing is you you can decimate or you can wipe out uh a s a significant amount of Iranian military hardware or uh sites that you've bombed that you've destroyed and so forth. But because they're in a defensive position, they do have the uh the benefit of being able to make adjustments where whereas and and it their their situation hasn't materially changed that much. the Iranians. Um we're we're told with recent reports now that they haven't lost uh 70 or 80% of their missile capability. In fact, it's the opposite. They've retained 70%. Likewise with claims by the US of eliminating their drone arsenal. That that seems to be those US claims seem to be not credible. In fact, it's the opposite. And I'm sure Russia is doing quite a bit of work in helping support or or backs stop some of the Iranian efforts uh because they do have a trade relationship uh on the military level especially with the drones. Uh they have done for many years. So let's be naive to think they wouldn't be. Um so Iran is preparing for a war. They're preparing they're preparing for the resumption of hostilities. But the US's platform for attack is not as good as it was on February 27th. So they they they forfeited if not most if not all of their bases uh in the region save for a couple of holdouts. Uh Kuwait seems to be confused as to what to do. Um and wondering if they're just going to be a sitting target should they uh provide a staging. So and we saw the I think the reports last week that Saudi Arabia and Kuwait denying the US use of their airspace. I think those are credible reports. I think those were I didn't see any denials from the US side uh regarding that. So those were credible. I saw a report floated afterwards uh just afterwards uh claiming that they flip-flopped on that. The Saudis and the Kuwaitis reversed on that. No, that they're going to allow the US to have access to the airspace. So that that has a probability of being a planted story uh in order to rescue US PR, which wouldn't be unusual, that type of a a follow-up story. So, we're into the realm of propaganda and uh smoke and mirrors here. So, bottom line is both sides are preparing for a resumption of hostilities. The question is which side has the better hand? And Iran has a much stronger strategic hand now than they did uh before February 28th. That's not that's beyond debate. Strategically, Iran is a stronger hand. They have more allies. They've won over the world media. The US has depleted a lot of its arsenal. They don't have enough for a long attack. Couple of weeks max, I would say. Israel is probably in a similar boat. So, they need to deal deal this incredible hammer blow to the Iranians um in order to somehow, you know, square this uh equation uh that they they've been 8 minutestelling us that uh that they're going to be able to dismantle the regime uh take out their infrastructure, etc. that's they you know they've made they've raised the they've raised the expectations on that on the US side on to such a level and so has Israel cats by the way the uh uh Israeli defense minister he's he's he's talking about annihilation uh during his public statements as well so but can they actually deliver this and and will Iran be able to withstand uh another serious blow like this by the Americans and the Israelis and all indications are that the Israelis and the Americans won't be able to deal the level of conventional blow anyway that they did before. So, it's not going to be as strong as a of a blow. Uh, and they're not going to be able to decapitate the regime. They're not going to achieve regime change. None of that. So, like what are they hoping to achieve other than make a big statement, make a big fireworks display, declare victory, and then somehow patch up some kind of a deal with the Straits of Hormuse late later afterwards, move things on to a Cuban invasion. Who knows with the Trump administration? Um, so, so, so from a military point of view, that's what I see uh is an effort to conceal defeat. An effort to conceal defeat. There's there is no universe where this is going to be classed as a victory by the US. It's just not it's an illegal war of aggression. It's going to go down the history books as a complete debacle. There is no victory. I mean, it's just not going to happen. So, then there's the political dimension. Political dimension domestically in the US. Need we say anymore? Look at the polling. It's bad. It's bad for Trump. Uh how about internationally? Is he doing any better in the international court of public opinion? Trump US uh I don't think so. They're doing bad on the international front. So politically it's a big failure both domestically and internationally. That's not going to help the military effort either. Okay. So let's look at how about Israel's public opinion in America. Is that doing any any better recently? Not looking good. In fact, all-time low. Trump's at an all-time low. Israel's at an all-time low. Benjamin Netanyahu is having to do rescue 60-minute interviews to try to sort of patch up the PR on this. It's not very weak interview that he gave. Very very sort of uh uh confused and slightly trepidacious on his part. You can tell his his uh his his brand, his effort is sinking rapidly. Um so that's not looking good geopolitically. How how's the US doing here? Are they doing good? Are they better than they were before February 28th? I would say not. Uh Iran's got full control or operational control of the straight of for moose. US can't be policing a blockade for very much longer with their naval resources and plus it's not really a blockade. It's slightly porous and Iran still manages the the the straits. Um okay so economically how's that looking in the US? Good, bad, worse than before? Much worse. How about internationally? Much worse. So on every single metric, every single dimension of this situation, it's bad. It's worse for the US and Israel. They have sunk to incredible depths in the last 70 days. There's no other way to put this. It's there's So, they're really in the hole and they're expecting a Hail Mary is going to pull them out of this. To me, it's cut your losses. Like, that would be the that would be the best option would be to somehow cut your losses, put a spin on it, you know, just do something. Uh maybe another moon mission or something. Who knows? But they can't they they can't rescue this one. So, but are they going to rescue it? Probably. They're probably gonna go for it, Danny. That's the thing. I that's that's what I think that they're going to they're going to have a crack at it. And it's going to be it's going to be anytime from today until the next I don't know the end of May. Um when is the next bank holiday? I don't know. It's like Yeah. Memorial Day, right? Think of the markets. Think of the markets. Right. So, I mean, yeah. Yeah. So, so the China thing is interesting. I don't know if you want to talk about that, but a lot of people, Danny, are wondering whether he's waiting for the the meeting with Xi Jinping in order to press the button on this because he couldn't do it before otherwise that's going to be a very uncomfortable meeting. And they've already delayed this meeting. This was supposed to happen in March. So that to me the the China thing is an interesting piece and I think that's potentially a consequential piece in all this. Oh definitely. It's highly likely that if the United States strikes Iran and there's a resumption of active hostilities that of course would not last a day or a week. I mean they're even talking they're they're talking about two weeks, right? I think there was this emergency phone call that Trump had with Netanyahu and Netanyahu said we'll do this for two weeks. The problem is is that if they start now that goes right into this uh two and a half day visit that Trump is set to uh do uh beginning in about three days. So, so that's not really going to work because that meeting will almost inevitably be cancelled because one, China does not want to be uh uh uh for all kinds of reasons meeting with the head of state that is actively at war. And two, uh the Trump administration would likely feel compelled to stay in that situation room and watch the fireworks for as long as they can. Seems that's what happened last time. So uh but without but also you know you talked about there is such a when you made the point that how is the US's hand right now in all of this and you mentioned all these points about how badly it's going on all fronts. Uh now it it's kind of coming out from everywhere. Uh this isn't just you Patrick that's saying this but it's now there's a Pentagon briefing. Senator Mark Kelly briefed the P, you know, in this Pentagon briefing said that he saw that the Pentagon's munitions were uh the stock piles were seriously depleted. And it's fair to say it's shocking how deep we've gone into the reserves. So, and this is not a this is no dove. He's a Democrat, but he is no dove. He's he's a hawk. So, um Neoconhawk. So the these admissions we should not be uh we should take seriously I think and uh uh then I don't know if you saw uh Patrick uh Robert Kagan the arch neocon I mean he may be the neocon the founder of 21st century neoconservative wararm mongering the project of the new American century talking about checkmate in Iran but not for the United States but for Iran. Washington can't reverse or control the consequences of its losing war. And he makes explicitly clear, Patrick, that unless the US is prepared to invade Iran, uh undergo regime change and hold on to uh political power inside of Iran, then uh if the answer is no to all of those things, you can't do that. Then this war is effectively lost. But your um your thoughts on this, Robert Kagan, that's Mr. Victoria Nuland to you. Yeah, I forgot that one. Yeah, Mr. Victoria Nuland. Yeah, you lost you lost the neocons and you lost Kagan. I mean, that's like a white flag right there from the war party. Um, so that's pretty extraordinary, but uh it just just just to reverse a little bit on the uh I'll come back to that in a moment, but just to reverse on the China thing. Uh so the the meeting of the 13th to the 15th, this is this is a two-day state visit to China. very unusual. Okay, that this is going to include work working lunches and stuff like that. So I this is coming a week after Abaserachi was in Beijing meeting with the Chinese. So Trump's coming after the Iranians. So the Iranians are getting pole position. What do you think the conversation with Iran's like versus the conversation that they're going to have with Trump? Trump thought he's going to go in there with a load of leverage. They're sanctioning Chinese refineries, that teapot refineries that are processing Iranian oil. Scott Besson's uh Trump's uh George Soros banker attack dog uh going hot and heavy on the Chinese on this. So, they're they're clearly trying to load up pressure on China. That was the I think that was the old plan. Uh and they tried this with the tariff wars. you know the tariffs got up to 145% on Chinese goods and then China basically countered with uh restriction on export of rare earth minerals which the United States military needs desperately as well as other industries. So they tried this um kind of art of the deal uh uh pressure leveraged game with China but now the US has already showed its hand and there's too many US politicians that have come out openly and said that well this is actually really good what's happening with the strait because China is not getting their oil from Iran and so they they've already telegraphed that they're trying to damage the Chinese economy and that is just a no uh go for China. So I I think that Trump is in an extremely weak position going into Beijing and China's in a position to basically read him the riot act on this. So if he thinks that they're going to be doing an escalation on on Iran after this meeting or before or during with this administration, I wouldn't leave any possibility out that they would do it. And that's something Israel would do, which would be to launch an attack during the meeting to put Trump on the spot. So I would say if I was going to put my Fiverr each way on a long shot on this, I would put down that Israel will attack Iran during Trump's meeting. And that will force the United States to take a position which they won't be able to back out of. And so at the end end of the day, is Israel doesn't care about USChinese relations. They don't care about any of this. They don't care about Trump's approval rating. They don't care about any of that. They've got what they wanted from Trump. Now they just want to they want him to take take it over the finish line by Hook or Krook. So that's really interesting. So and so Trump can't I think the plan Danny was that he would ask China to help open the straits. Yes. That that would have been but I I think that's off the table right now. That's that's that would have been sort of a thing a month ago. uh while this sort of was a fresh crisis, but now you've seen all the games the US have played and they're not even willing to talk and do any real diplomacy. That whole this whole grift is getting long in the tooth for the Chinese and the Russians uh on this this this idea that we don't do diplomacy. Trump puts this memorandum of understanding with uh with with a 24-hour deadline to the Iranians and and Iran's response is go pound sand. I mean, they're just so defiant in their response. And I'm like, they don't even respect the United States anymore. So, so who has the leverage right now? The US is acting desperate. They begged for a ceasefire on on April 8th. That didn't come from tan. That came from Washington. Okay? They begged the Israelis and the Americans desperate for a ceasefire on April 8th. So, if if Trump holds all the cards like Rubio and Trump keep saying at all these uh press press opportunities, then why did you beg for a ceasefire on April 8th? Clearly, you needed it. You're running out. You're running out. Israel is running out. US is running out. They need pause to rearm and reload and sort of recalibrate for their next move. Iran could have kept going. They're they weren't asking for a ceasefire. So, that's kind of obvious where things are in terms of the power dynamics uh on this. So, I think that uh you know there there's no more pressure that they can put on China on this. China's already actually pulled their card, which is that they they activated a piece of legislation in China that says that um they they do not they will not abide by or recognize these US sanctions. And they're they're giving uh they're giving a lifeline to any other countries. they'll be supported by China legally and politically if they don't abide by the uh US sanctions as well against ch China's refineries or anything to do with Iran. Uh it looks like so that's a hu So China's already stepped out. This this is bad news for Trump to be stepping into Beijing at this time. And I it just this is this is a really for a US president to go down with such low footing. I've never hardly ever seen this before. For a state visit with an American president to go in on such weak footing on your back heels. Actually, Trump's going in on his back heels. How's he going to react? What's he going to do to sort of spin this one around in his favor? I I don't really see he's not got any room to maneuver at all. The US has painted itself into such a terrible position with this. They could they could stay, they could go, they could linger. All three of those are bad for the US. So, it's like Yeah. It's like war games. You remember that that that film with Matthew Broadick? Best way to win is not to play. Right. And and looking back that's that and that would have been taking the advice of all the US generals and military war games and here we go all the way back to the Millennium Challenge in 2002. Don't do it. Yeah. Yeah. Oh, it's and yeah, the Donald Trump going to China too with this set of cards which are uh either non-existent or incredibly poor means that if he does try to dictate terms uh we know that China is going to say no especially with the state of Hormuz there's going to be no budging on that because China doesn't do that sort of thing. China does not do uh any kind of strongarming or using negotiations or military might to strongarm other countries. It doesn't do that. So, it would never do that regardless of the circumstances. But to do it now, to try to uh demand that now and then to have them say no, well, that's only going to cause even more chaos in the in the markets because the longer this goes on, uh the more that the Trump administration tries to exercise options that don't actually exist, uh the the less faith that uh these uh uh you know, parasitic oil monopolies and financeers uh you know, at the helm of Wall Street become a lot more jitter. He he's not looking good straight. No, I mean he he looks like he's dying on He looks like he's he he's on death's door. Like that's, you know, brown brown bread sort of territory there. Like not good. That's the first thing I'll notice. And u but but notice also that that , if I'm not mistaken, that's under the eegis of the uh CBS, the Habad broadcasting system. So uh how when was that thing filmed? That would be an interesting question. How recently was that, you know, kept on ice for days or weeks? Who knows? But uh but it just seemed like the timing of that. What's the purpose of the release of that? Is it they felt they had to release that for a reason? He's talking about Barry Weiss and Msad, you know, running basically the news desk at now at CBS now. Uh so that's an interesting question. He's very weak but the so he's very reticent there to condemn China. Uh so that speaks probably to China's weight uh and and power on in the international system which is undeniable. And China's not reactive as you said Danny. They're not reactive. They're they have their positions long-term positions staked already. Uh they don't panic. They don't flare their hands and say stupid things uh like the United States does every day and like the Israelis do constantly as well. So uh that's that's extremely interesting. So um but uh the thing that just I I can't get around the decrepit state of Netanyahu in that to me that that is the the indelible mark of that interview as far as I'm concerned. He didn't really say much about anything and he kept couching it in these secretive terms like I can't say. I know but I can't say. He said that with a bunch of other things as well during that interview. So that to that to me is typical Netanyahu hutzbah. Um and he is like one of the greatest liars ever. And as my colleague remarked earlier today, he's not very good at it, but he just like can it's good enough for the American audience. um he's such a bad liar, but it works because he just like hams it up and people sort of get used to sort of listening to him allowing that guy to hold court. But um but he doesn't look like he's particularly confident there. I think we can we can all just accept the fact that the numbers don't look good for Israel in terms of interceptor missiles. Hezbollah just took out one of their Iron Dome uh uh batteries with with an FPV with a with a $1,000 FPV drone. Uh yeah, that just happened uh the last couple of days. So, that's not good. Uh a couple more of those Iron Dome batteries get taken out and now you got Israel's naked on multiple fronts. I mean, this is not looking good. Just think about this, Danny. The last time they've sparred from February 28th, did Hezbollah join in on the party? No, they didn't. But is gonna join in on the party here? Yeah, you better believe it. So, Israel is fighting a two-front war and and they're trying really hard to separate Lebanon from Iran in any negotiations. Trying really hard. And Iran's been very sort of uh uh insistent that the the Lebanese situation is not separate from this situation and that they want that to be part of any peace deal or any ceasefire. It's a very smart move by the Iranians negotiations wise because they know that Israel they I Iran values the human life of the Lebanese and the Palestinians and Israel will use that to as a threat in implicitly and the Iranians know how devious the Israelis are in this way. So that's why they're they're they're they're they're getting out in front of it. And I just the fact that Iran has done that in negotiations shows me you are dealing with a formidable international actor right there. You can only do moves like that if you can back it up. And that that that that's the type of thing a Russia could pull a move like that in negotiations, pull in another dimension into there and credibly the other side has to acknowledge it. Iran's just done that and done it very very credibly and and and they're able to back it up. That to me means we're looking at a new region now. We're looking at uh Middle East or West Asia, whichever you refer to it, the the rules are changed. that the fact that Iran insisted on the last round that Lebanon be part of the the the negotiations the ceasefire that's the beginning of the change in the security architecture of the region. The second point that is the beginning of the change in the security architecture is Saudi Arabia and and Kuwait last week uh denying US use of airspace for an attack on Iran. Now people will deny say oh that didn't we don't know if that happened or not. I think it's a credible report. I've not seen any official denials about that from anybody. So that seems to be credible. That is the beginning as well. Another block in the new security architecture, the inevitable security architecture of of of the Persian Gulf. Inevitable. Because it's already begun. It's already begun. So, we're we're looking at a uh a a a gradual process, Danny, that's taking place right in front of our eyes. History is changing right in front of our eyes. It's going to be gradual, messy, potentially bloody process by the end of it. I hope not, but it's already begun. Th those are just undeniable changes in the laws of physics in in the Persian Gulf. And it means that the United States no longer has any position in the region. Otherwise, that could never have happened. US is in a weak position. So back to the other when we talk about the military dimension of this that is undeniably a military defeat for the US. Not in the sense of the you know damage that they've inflicted on Iran we can acknowledge that. But from an imperial perspective, if if if empire is about controlling regions and having leverage within regions and be able to stage military operations as a credible threat to have uh escalation dominance in in in the Middle East or in West Asia, in the Persian Gulf, then the US has lost that. That's a resounding route, a total defeat of the US. total defeat from the from the imperial perspective. Okay? Not one-on-one with Iran. I'm talking about the region. And it was only because of that that now you have the other actors in the region acting as a deterrence against the United States. Wow. This is amazing. So that from that point of view, I think we're watching history unfold gradually, painfully. Not pretty, but it's happening. That's uh I think that's that's a great point and uh Israel has as you said, Israel will use uh these developments as much as it can to sound the alarm, the threat levels to try to justify uh continuing this war. Uh but Israel's channel 14 has said or channel 12, I don't know which one of these mouthpieces of the Israeli regime it is. Uh but they have been sounding the alarm about exactly the point you made about Iran. uh uh uh putting forth and being firm on uh this being a regional war and a regional peace needs to happen. Uh so Israel is saying that Lebanon, Iraq, and Palestine, Gaza are all on the table when it comes to Iran's position that they're not uh that they are putting forth to the United States that all of these uh fronts have to be uh resolved if there's going to be any uh lasting sessation of hostilities which um as you said can only be done and can you can only hold on to such positions uh at the negotiating table if you are quite confident in your position. And then one last point I'll make before I get into this segue a bit into Trump and his reactions to the Iranian proposals is that you know a lot of people critique China for having a relationship with Israel economically. But uh I've heard many say to me, even people in China who say to me, "Hey, uh you know, if we didn't have this relationship with Israel, uh it's would be much more difficult to have a relationship with Iran like we do and without Israeli interference because uh uh Netanyahu, what you saw there, as you said, it's an acknowledgement of China's weight. It's also an acknowledgement that Israel uh thinks once, twice, maybe thrice about uh doing anything to China regardless of its assistance to Iran. And uh we know that China's assistance to abroad is well beyond little uh components to missiles and drones. It goes both militarily and economically far far far more than that. So uh that's just one point I'll make. You don't have to like it. Could be morally. You could say I don't agree with that. But at the end of the day, I think uh there's some reality here that does um uh that does bear fruit and bear weight. But uh Donald Trump is losing it uh you know around these proposals uh that Iran has put forth in including the most recent one. Donald Trump uh was on True Social twice in one day on Mother's Day to uh just absolutely uh throw a temper tantrum about Ron's response. He said, "I have read the response from Oan so-called representatives. I don't like it. Totally unacceptable. Thank you for your attention to this matter." And then before this, he talked about how Ron was playing games. Delay, delay, delay. They think they can laugh, but they won't be laughing so much longer. But uh he's about to go to China, which is very serious about diplomacy in in negotiations in good faith. And uh this is how the United States and Donald Trump is behaving. Patrick, uh uh what do you make of this, especially at the negotiations front when it comes to Iran and the United States, if we can call it that? any tweet, any statement made by this White House regarding negotiations with Iran is not credible because you don't know who who Trump Trump's not talking to them directly. We know that. So Trump is relying on his uh intellects in with his diplomats, his envoys or whatever. Um they're supposedly talking to somebody that uh or they're talking to the Pakistanis who are then talking to somebody. But we don't know. We don't know the chain of custody of that conversation. That's the problem with this administration, this ad hoc sort of pseudo diplomacy that Trump is trying to pass off as, you know, negotiations internationally cuz it nothing's consistent. The Iranians are not acknowledging anything that coming out of the US. The only the only acknowledgement I think that's credible is that the I think Iran acknowledged that they received a one-page memorandum of understanding of some terms of a deal. Um to which they replied, you know, this is not going to work at all. This is just ridiculous. and they issued uh their sort of counter proposal which I'm sure the Iranians are full well uh accepting that the US is Trump's never going to or the Israeli lobby is never going to allow uh any of the IR the Iranian conditions which are that you're going to have to lift sanctions you're going to have to pay reparations you're going to have to unfreeze our assets those are all no-go areas you know we we we're going to reserve the right to enrich a certain amount of uranium and they're not going to get any of these things. There's going to be no curtailing of the missile program, none of that. So there's no way just on the sanctions alone and the frozen assets alone, it's never going to be allowed to happen in the US. So Iran knows that. So this goes back to my original point which I made probably during our previous discussion last week is that Iran is shifted into this kind of, you know, third gear with the US. It's the same third gear Russia runs in with the US. They're just managing the US because they know the US is not capable to do anything diplomatically. The US is not capable of doing any deals at all because they just don't have the capability, the framework, the personnel, the knowledge, the intellectual ability to put together any kind of interim accord which would lead to a treaty. It's just they just can't. So they're just playing playing diplomacy and get on with what they need to get on with while the US continues to hamstring itself by under overpromising and underd delivering which is what they've done with Ukraine. And Russia's just playing him like a fiddle. They send a babysitter uh Kill Demitri. It's not he's not an official Russian diplomat. He's just there as a babysitter to to keep Witoff and Kushner uh busy to to and so that Trump and the US can say that they're doing diplomacy when Russia knows it's not serious. They're not nothing's going to happen, but they'll keep the door open, but they'll just babysit them. Now, Iran is basically, although they don't have a babysitter assigned to the US team, they're they're going to manage it exactly like the Russians, which is the Trump administration's not a serious is not a serious presidency. That's the problem. It's not a real uh they don't have a real foreign service. They don't it's it's effectively it's a surrogate of Israel. Um and Israel has selected all of the cabinet members for the Trump and they've selected them on their incompetence and their inability to do anything other than tow the Israeli line. Uh pretty much and all they're all they're all compromised individuals pretty much to a man and a woman. And so they don't care. So, so the Iran's already priced all this in. Now, the the window of opportunity, while we say it's it's likely that they're going to the US is going to resume hostilities, Israel would like them to resume hostilities, but the longer they let this thing roll, the more difficult it's going to be politically at home uh for Trump and away, as we can see with the China situation. There's just too many factors at play that you can't micro Trump believes he can micromanage everything and that the world is a constellation of transactions and all you have to do is just do the right turn the knob in each each place in the right place and you get this magical equation where you can build your casino in Atlantic City. All the stars align with the Teamsters, the mafia, the bent contractors, people that you plan to rip off and not pay. uh uh city and regional planners that you're going to bribe, you're going to blackmail the mayor. And if you just line all that up, you're going to get the deal. Like that's the world Trump lives in in his brain. That's how he organizes things. The reality in international relations is totally different. You're dealing with forces of nature. And at some point, those forces of nature overtake all of your micromanage managing machinations. And that's the part not that's why Trump has fallen on his face with Ukraine. Uh it where's the board of peace? Where's the border of peace? What happened to that? Nowhere. He's going to fall on his face with Cuba as well. I predict that that that one is going to blow up in his face. That is going to be probably the 39 minutesdeath nail of this administration if they haven't reached that point already. I think that Cuba is just going to be a disaster for the US, for the country, and for the government, for Rubio and everybody. I sort of half in a sort of really twisted way want to see it happen, but I don't want to see it happen because I don't want any Cubans to lose their life um at the altar of this just disgusting uh uh megalomania that we're witnessing now. So, yeah, I mean that that's my positive spin on things. No, I mean I I I I have a similar sentiment especi with regards to Cuba could be the um you know I had Richard Wolf on yesterday. He said the Iran could be the proverbial straw that broke the US empire's back. I could see Cuba being the straw that breaks the illusion, the back of this illusion that uh because the United States gained at least a diplomatic and economic foothold on Venezuela that that suddenly means that it has this kind of permanent control over Latin America. Cuba could change that really quickly should it go badly. And as you said, and I believe this is true, it will go badly. will not be some Delta operation that leads to Diaz Canal's capture and then Cuba uh suddenly is just doing what Let me say this happen at all. Daniel, what do you think the global court of public opinion is going to be if they go for Cuba like aggressively? I mean, I just see Cuba's brand just rising like a star internationally. The the amount of support they're going to get from the world community is just unthinkable. Look at Iran's brand internationally. I mean, they're in a incredible position internationally, politically, uh, to the point where I'm seeing people that used to just deride them are now speaking them with almost reverent tones, uh, after the last two months. Why? Because they've got the they they they've stood toe-to-toe with America and they got the respect and they're credible. uh the Iranians uh have done what they said they're going to do and uh and they've meant it and they've delivered and there's not many countries that can do that against the United States and there's no no European countries that have the balls to stand up to Washington. I mean all the vassal states in Europe, some of which have a GDP that's uh you know comparable uh to a world superpower, they still don't have the balls to stand up to Washington even though even if Washington blows up their pipelines right in front of them, not you know uses NATO assets to destroy their energy infrastructure in Europe and uh you know the likes of Germany and uh you know the rest of them would just twiddle their thumbs and say oh yes sir, no sir, three bags ful sir. It's embarrassing. And Iran's just basically turned around said, "No one's coming to help us. No one's coming to help us. We're on our own, and we're going to stand toe-to-toe with not just America, with Israel as well." And and so the results are pretty obvious for everybody to see. Now, it's very safe for China and Russia to come in and support Iran even more because there's no question. I mean, I wouldn't I would not back any country. Uh, and I think Russia is probably in this mind because of the collapse of Syria, which isn't the Syrian government's fault under Assad. I mean, they're under the most vicious uh punitive sanctions imaginable in history. Okay? They strangled that country to death. But Russia still couldn't fight the war for Syria. They couldn't fight their war for them. Iran can fight their war for themselves. So, it's a much better investment for Russia or China or any other country to come in and back Iran right now because you know you're going to get they're not they're not going to fold up and and and uh and and collapse. So, that's a good investment straight off the bat. That also changes the uh regional dynamic considerably and the Gulf States are looking they were the sort of flavor of the month a few years ago. They're looking incredibly weak, confused, and uh a little bit trepidacious about their position in the region right now. Super divided, too, and super divided amongst I think we're seeing that with the whole Project Freedom thing, those media reports. I think Saudi Arabia and Kuwait even rejected the reversal media reports. They said, "No, we didn't reverse on Project Freedom uh like uh uh you know, not participating. We didn't say we're going to participate in now. No. And and we see the results. It hasn't happened. So, uh and of course the UAE stands completely in contradiction to all of this. They're they're going full steam ahead in part because they do have this uh uh you know rivalry with Saudi Arabia many respects and it's so it's looking pretty ugly in in their region. And Qatar Qatar and Saudi Arabia, they're not on the same page on on on a lot of stuff. They're they're rivals effectively. Uh and and Bahrain is just drifting out there. They're they're now instituting police state crackdowns on Shiites in which are the majority of the population in Bahrain. So that mean they're just doubling down on a bad position uh already. And so there there's no chance the that the US is going to be able to reestablish a footprint uh there. So yeah, it is a very divided GCC, extremely divided. Jordan as well is hugely compromised. royal family there is basically on tender hooks um right now and then seen as as Zionist puppets by pretty much the whole of the Arab world. So not looking good. Not looking good. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. I mean uh and just a quick note on Cuba um before I want to maybe close on a little bit more on this Kagan piece, but uh when it comes to Cuba, I mean with Iran, what was a lot of Iranian commentators and analysts, you know, from Muhammad Randi to uh you know, Satara Sadiki, a lot many people have said one of the big uh changes that has occurred in Iran is that young people who may have had issues with the government, maybe suffer suffering from lack of prospects because of sanctions. Uh they have been uh made uh incredibly more militant if not 100% supportive of the government and of sovereignty because of what the United States and Israel has done from the June war 20 12-day war till now to the February 28th uh uh you know escalation. Uh these two developments have uh brought incredible unity to Iran. Cuba. I was in Cuba 10 years ago and this is what I was hearing that one of the big concerns was that how does the next generation continue on the Cuban revolution. Uh that there had been inroads made by USAD and various other platforms to uh try to uh bring Cuban youth on the side of the US and 46 minutesthe West and maybe therefore be more willing to destabilize the government. If the US does anything militarily in Cuba, I I can guarantee that all of that work that they've spent millions upon millions, maybe billions of dollars in doing over the last several decades, uh that that work is going to go up in smoke and uh you will see unprecedented unity which will then Cuba, you know, uh especially in the hemisphere despite all of the anti-Cuban, you know, propaganda and all of this does not Iran was coming from a far worse position in public opinion, not only in the United States, but regionally uh than Cuba is. Cuba is thought of a little more warmly even by countries that uh you know are not necessarily friendly, but uh they might become a little more friendly if they see the United States uh trying to destabilize the region uh in order to overthrow Cuba. So, it's uh it's it's a dicey and risky maneuver that uh I don't know. It we'll be close to midterms by the time they get around to it. So, I guess we'll have to The other the other thing to add is if if the US go aggressively on Cuba and do do what what what they say they're planning what Rubio's hinting at and and so forth that they could lose Venezuela. What and that's a that's a tenuous foothold the US have in Venezuela. I'm sorry. Oh, I think but uh and they would lose it completely and the moral the authority would be on Venezuelans that are taking the side of Cuba and so that would be a call for an ousting of the US out of Venezuela and they would never be able to come back after that. That would be it. So they will lose Venezuela. I I'm 100% sure. and Mexico. Uh it will embolden Shine Bomb and uh uh the more sort of global south uh uh leaning uh political forces and uh socialist forces in Mexico as well. So it's it's I there's no there's no win for the US there. There's a little win for Rubio. He gets to puff his chest out and uh do his concistador dance. Um, but the vice viceroy viceroy rubio viceroy of Cuba. I like the sound of it. Viceroy of Cuba. Marco Rubio. That's better. It's better than he's going to get. He's not going to get US president in 2028. So, he might as well settle for viceroy of Cuba. He's not even going to get that. So, he's going to have to take like some other Maybe they can go for Grenada again. That's probably going to be easier, right? Grenada, right? One of our uh friends over at DDJ Geopolitics messaged me the term uh DJ Gusano for uh for for Marco Rubio because recently I think he was DJing some wedding, some family member's wedding or something. He was DJing what what's his DJ name? Is he is it little Marco? Little Marco. Well, he calls this uh editor over at DDG politics called DJ Gusano which is hilar I think that's a really great great name. Uh, what a what a cheese ball. But, uh, yeah. Well, you know, in the last or so, Patrick, I just wanted to, uh, pull up this quote from Robert Kagan that I think summarizes maybe where things really are at, um, in terms of, uh, let me just try to find it because I accidentally closed it. Um, so, uh, here we go. He says, "Any resolution other than America's effective surrender holds enormous risks Trump has so far not been willing to take. Those who glibly call on Trump to finish the job rarely acknowledge the costs. Unless the US is prepared to engage in a full-scale ground and naval war to remove the current Iranian regime and then to occupy Iran until the new government can take hold, unless it is prepared to risk the loss of warships convoying tankers through a contested straight, convoying tankers through a contested straight. Unless it is prepared to accept the devastating long-term damage to the region's productive capacities likely to result from Iranian retaliation, walking away now could seem like the least bad option. As a political matter, Trump may feel uh well feel he has a better chance of riding out defeat than of surviving a much longer, a larger, and more expensive war that could end in failure. I mean, this is Robert Kagan. This is the architect of Iraq, Afghan, the entirety of the US, imperial, West Asia, Middle East policy um talking like this, which I mean these are the same people who helped Rumsfeld come up with the big list of the seven countries in five years and this is this is where we're at. But you know, Daniel, Daniel, that is a masterful piece of writing. I honestly my jaws on the floor. It's so good. I could not have delivered a better assessment so concise, so well refined as Robert Kagan has done there. So there was talent there all along, right? There was talent. There was some talent in there. Um, but what what does that show you? That shows you that bestlaid plans of m men. Bestlaid plans of mice men. They were talking about uh conquest against Iran for years, including Kagan and Bolton and all the other neocons. bestlaid plans of mice men as Robert Burns uh the the Scottish poet famously famous famous famously said um and it it now we've come to the reality of the situation and it doesn't look as good as it did 20 years ago or in the sort of war planning rooms or in the mind of Pete Hagth uh it doesn't look uh it's not looking good right now and so there what they're what they're coming to realize in the Zionists are um I'm I'm assuming Kagan is a Zionist although I'm not going to take that for granted at the moment anymore. A lot of questions up in the air, but um that e even they're seeing the existential threat to Israel is very palpable that that that the continuation down this road many believe has been a disaster for Israel. And I'm not talking about the military defeat of Israel or the fact that Tel Aviv, they've laid waste to Tel Aviv and half the military installations in in Israel and weakened its position um regionally. I'm talking about the global court of public opinion against Israel and the wide acknowledgment in the United States and internationally that Israel dragged the United States into this war and it was based on fake intelligence, false claims, and a real sales job by Netanyahu with a a completely uh um uh gullible and cognitively challenged Donald Trump and surrounded by a gaggle of charlatans. It's just uh a perfect storm really for a disaster. So I'm half I'm reading that and it sounds like Kagan in that passage is also kind of he's not leaving the door open but he's saying if you fulfill these criteria it is possible that you could get a win. So he's like half opening the door there uh about you know boots on the ground for instance and some other contingencies that might kind of make this equation kind of add up and work. And I'm thinking to myself in the back of my mind I'm thinking I'm thinking go for it. Go for it. I'm almost like at this point put the empire out of its misery Danny. Yeah. Go for it. Put those boots on the ground. Go for it. Put put your 120,000 combat ready troops. That's all the US have, by the way. They got 100 thou 120,000 combat ready troops. They got plenty of logistical staff, plenty of downline uh uh uh people doing performing various duties uh within the military structure. But in terms of infantry, combat ready, you got about 120,000. Go ahead, get them all out. Put them on the ground in Iran. Let's see what happens. Roll the dice, Donald. Let's see what happens. And guess what? All those military ships that'll be loitering around the straight of Hormuse, they're not target. They're not real targets now, but but they will be when the when the when the fireworks begin, those become very much real targets and they they you will incur significant naval losses because that's all they've got left. The US is totally reliant on naval assets because all of their ground bases are pretty much shot to to bits. So again, it's what we said at the beginning of this conversation, Danny, is I'm looking at the scorecard prior to February 28th in terms of what the US have on its side and and their power rankings in terms of their ability to do what they want need to do in the region militarily to keep their position. And I'm looking at it now and it's a bad looking scorecard now compared it's like less than half of where it was prior to February 25th 28th. Not to mention they are out of ammo. Like what are you guys actually 55 minutesgoing to do here? The only option is to walk away. And I think I think he he summed that up. Kagan did it very eloquently. Managing defeat is a much better option for Trump. I fully agree. But you know the the some of us are thinking go for it Donald. Go for it. You think you can do it. You BB BB wants you to do it. Go for it. Go all in. Let's see what happens. Let's see how that ends up. That'll be the most rapid collapse of the US empire. That'll be so fasttracking the whole process of collapse. Uh if if they pull the trigger on that and there's people in the US, the Jack Kees of the world, the Lindsey Grahams of the world, they want Trump to pull that trigger now. They wanted to pull it before Memorial Day weekend coming up coming up to a theater near you premiering on Memorial Day. They want that. They're they're on the media right now doing a fullcourt blitz. They want this war. Lavine and everybody else uh all these ser uh Israeli surrogates in the US media, they're saying we can't leave. We can't let leave Israel hanging out to dry on this, Donald. You got to, you know, you got to finish the job. You got to finish the job. Is Trump going to capitulate to all these magpies and hyenas that are just screeching around Washington around him right now? Or is he going to listen to Joe Kent and some of these other people more levelheaded and critical thinkers, rational thinkers? Are there any rational thinkers in the US administration? Can we name any there might be one or two on the joint chiefs committee? Maybe uh within the cabinet. I'm not sure like what. So it's I don't know. I don't know what could what what's going to happen. I don't know. I'd like to say that they're going to do the right thing and the smart thing and the sane thing, but that's assuming there's smart and sane people in the administration. Yeah, my pen just broke here. I was just like that's what that sound was. Those odds of uh 130,000 maximum combat ready troops to uh Iran's million plus. Don't like those odds at all. Uh and that's not even taking into consideration everything that Iran says and likely now that we have demonstrative proof uh from February 28th uh into those what five or so weeks uh that they have significant capacity outside of just their ground forces uh protecting their borders. They can do far more than just that. So uh don't like those odds that it's a very dangerous game. What what is a cornered rat? So Israel is a cornered rat in all of this. What are they going to do out of desperation? Are they going to accept Trump doing nothing, withdrawing? How's that going to fly with Netanyahu's camp with the lobby? What What are they going to do? What are they going to do? Are they going to uh make threats against Trump? I mean, what are they going to what can they do at that point? I think there this is going to be you're going to see a level of hysteria and desperation. You're already seeing it. Look at the statements and the tantrums from some of these people in the US media right now. Lavine and the rest of that these guys, they're going crazy right now. They're beside themselves because nothing's happening. And every day nothing happens. Iran gets stronger and and and its allies get more uh emboldened and the US gets weaker. and there's just no changing that that that's just something that's just there's nothing you can do about that. So they think that there's some action they can take, some definitive action that's going to to turn this around, that's going to change this trend. And I'm saying that it's not. Even if they take action, even if they fight and drop everything they have for two weeks, it's not going to change the the arc of these trends. Yeah. So we'll see. I think that's a great I think it's a great place to end it. Uh Patrick, uh without further ado, I want to make sure people know that they can support your work at 21st Century Wire, both uh on Substack and in the YouTube channel for 21st Century Wire. Both of them are in the video description. Uh anything you want to say, Patrick, before we head out of here? No, just uh yeah, thank you very much. Appreciate um the conversation today. uh Daniel and uh all shall be revealed uh before before Memorial Day. I have Yeah. Or not. I have a feeling we'll be talking again uh in a not too distant future. So support Patrick's work in the video description below. You can also uh upport this channel in the video description below too um various means, Substack, uh Patreon, etc. Hit the like button, though. the best free way to make sure that Patrick's voice and this conversation continue to be spread. Um, so more people can check out uh those links in the video description too, but also just more people can check out this work. Thanks to all the viewers today, all the moderators, and I put up this uh the new members super chat as well. So, thanks so much. I'll be back tomorrow with uh our friend Larry Johnson, I believe, at 2 PM Eastern, a little bit later, May 12th. All right, so see you then. And until next time, bye-bye.
Trump loses patience after Iran supports China’s four-point peace proposal | Janta Ka Reporter Janta Ka Reporter May 11, 2026
US President Donald Trump has reacted angrily to Iran’s response to his peace proposal. Speaking to reporters, Trump stated that Iran would not be able to frustrate him with its delaying tactics. This comes as Iran officially supported Chinese proposals to establish peace in the Persian Gulf and end the ongoing conflict—a move of significant importance given that Trump is scheduled to visit China in the next few days. Rifat Jawaid argues that China’s entry may help Iran prolong negotiations, thereby compounding the woes of American consumers due to rising oil prices.
