Empire at its nadir: Trump’s hollow threats mask America’s descent as Iran stamps its authority by Press TV Strategic Analysis Desk Saturday, 23 May 2026 12:32 PM [ Last Update: Saturday, 23 May 2026 12:32 PM ] https://www.presstv.ir/Detail/2026/05/2 ... ry-Baghaei
Behind the bluster of maximalist pressure and theatrical military threats from Washington lies a reality the architects of the “maximum pressure” campaign dare not admit: the United States is slowly hurtling toward a critical economic, political, and strategic precipice.
The high-volume diplomatic trips of Pakistani officials in recent days – from its army chief to its prime minister and interior minister – carrying the US messages reveal a frantic choreography of a hegemon leaning on every available intermediary, including Islamabad, to salvage the bare minimum from a war it has already lost militarily, politically, and morally.
Iran, by contrast, operates from a posture of strategic clarity, exercising patience to ensure that no agreement is accepted unless it safeguards Iranian interests and meets all of Tehran's stipulated conditions for permanently ending the third imposed war.
The Islamic Republic’s objective in the negotiations to put an end to the latest imposed war of aggression is not simply to silence the guns. It is to permanently break the vicious cycle of war, negotiation, and renewed war – a cycle that has defined the enmity and hostility of the United States and the Zionist regime against the Iranian nation for decades.
The fact is that the American Empire is collapsing under the weight of its own failures, Iran’s resistance is rewriting the rules of deterrence, so concessions must flow from the US side.
The hollow superpower – America’s rapid descent into crisis
Contrary to Trump’s posture of raw power, the US is approaching a multidimensional collapse with startling speed. The military defeat the US has suffered against Iran – a defeat no amount of propaganda can erase – has now metastasized into a political and strategic hemorrhage. The world is watching, and the indicators are devastating.
First, the economic battlefield, which Washington believed it could dominate, has turned into a trap of its own making. The same economic deterioration gripping the globe has been exposed as, in large part, a US-driven catastrophe.
Sanctions, reckless fiscal policies, and the weaponization of the dollar have backfired spectacularly. Instead of isolating Iran, America has accelerated global de-dollarization and eroded trust in its own economic stewardship. The very indices that once signaled American economic supremacy – inflation control, market confidence, supply chain reliability – are now flashing red. And the world correctly assigns fault to Washington.
Second, the political unravelling follows the catastrophic military failure. The US war machine entered this war expecting a quick Iranian surrender, like in Venezuela. What it encountered was an indomitable resistance that shattered all US calculations.
Now, the concept of American “superpower” status is being gradually invalidated in real-time. Allies in the region and beyond, who once sheltered under the US security umbrella, see the emperor without clothes. They witness a power that could not break Iran, could not protect its own assets, and is now begging – through Pakistani intermediaries, Arab Persian Gulf capitals, and backchannel emissaries – for an exit ramp.
Third, and most critically, Washington is burning itself alive to secure even minimal political concessions from Iran on the nuclear file. Why? Because the survival of America’s remaining global credibility – whatever is left of it – depends on the ‘myth’ of the Iranian nuclear bomb.
Trump and his strategists know if they return from negotiations empty-handed – unable to claim even a symbolic, face-saving victory – the damage to US standing will be irreversible.
Rivals and enemies alike will interpret that outcome as definitive proof that the US can be defied, defeated, and diminished without any real consequence. Thus, America is pursuing any deal, no matter how hollow, not to enhance security, but to postpone the moment of its own political and strategic death.
It is going through “hell and high water” not for peace, but for the illusion of relevance.
Press TV @PressTV The logic of victory: Iran’s end-of-war terms define a new strategic reality for the aggressor
The war aims exposed – From annihilation to retreat
Let us rewind to see how this war of aggression began. The US and the Israeli regime did not initiate it over a small dispute about enrichment levels or inspection schedules. Their stated goal was the annihilation of the Islamic Republic, the partition of Iran, and the plunder of its natural resources. That was the objective, and they unapologetically admitted it.
But the battlefield has a way of clarifying illusions. As signs of their defeat became clearer, the enemy’s demands shifted dramatically. They called for Iran’s surrender. And when Trump himself urgently requested a ceasefire, the definition of “surrender” was spelled out: a public renunciation of nuclear weapons, the transfer of all 60 percent enriched uranium to American soil, zero enrichment, and the dismantling of every Iranian nuclear facility.
Here lies the first great victory of the Iranian resistance. Iran did not surrender, but it resisted with all its might. And under that pressure, the enemy was forced to retreat. The demand for zero enrichment was downgraded to a temporary halt. The demand for transferring nuclear material to the US was abandoned altogether. That is the record of a country that forced a so-called “superpower” to eat its own words.
But make no mistake: even the minimal realization of American goals, amplified by a deafening, ear-grating media wave of Trumpian victory propaganda, would carry catastrophic long-term consequences.
If Washington can claim, however falsely, that it saved the world from a “nuclear Iran,” it will achieve two things. First, a temporary political escape hatch from complete collapse. Second, and far more dangerously, it will legitimize war itself as an instrument to strip the Islamic Republic of its sovereign rights.
The very act of extracting concessions through warfare, even minimal ones, validates the logic of aggression. It tells future American and Israeli leaders: if you bomb Iran, you can extract concessions. That validation means the threat of war will remain permanently.
Breaking the vicious cycle – Iran’s core objective
This is the fundamental point that Western pundits consistently miss. Iran is not in these negotiations merely to end the current war of aggression. That would be shortsighted. Iran’s objective is to close the door on another war and prevent the endless, exhausting cycle of war, negotiation, and renewed war that has drained the region for decades.
The pattern has been brutal and predictable. War. Exhaustion. Negotiation. Concessions. Then, inevitably, a new pretext for war. The enemy rests, rearms, and returns with greater demands. Iran has decided that this vicious cycle must end permanently, not temporarily.
This is essential because any concession granted to the arrogant enemy under the shadow of war and the fear of its recurrence may produce a momentary ceasefire, but it does so at the cost of the future. It is a form of short-term political profiteering that sacrifices the fundamental rights of future generations.
It won’t be right to secure a comfortable present for the current generation by guaranteeing devastating wars against future generations. That is the essence of the moral and strategic calculation now facing Iranian decision-makers.
The enemy has already proven its true intentions. It has demonstrated, through two full-scale unprovoked wars in less than a single year, that its ultimate demand is nothing less than the destruction of the Islamic Republic system. Every other issue – nuclear enrichment, regional influence, missile power – is secondary compared to that core objective.
An enemy that has shown no hesitation in imposing total war twice in less than ten months cannot be managed with partial concessions. It must be decisively dissuaded from even considering war as an option anytime in the future. And the only way to achieve that dissuasion is to disappoint the enemy entirely regarding its declared objectives.
Iran must ensure that the United States and the Zionist regime walk away from this imposed war with nothing – no victory, no symbolic concession, no propaganda trophy.
Press TV @PressTV Analysis - The geometry of power: Trump’s repeated retreats prove US systemic paralysis, Iran’s strategic ascent
The unfinished battle – Why the war is not over until it’s over
Here lies the most urgent operational reality. As long as a definitive, permanent, final end to the war has not been announced, every conversation, every promise, and every agreement regarding Iran’s rights – particularly in the nuclear sphere – is premature and dangerous.
Even a commitment not to build nuclear weapons, if given in the context of ongoing US hostilities and before a binding final settlement, has the perverse effect of legitimizing war. It signals to the enemy that aggression is a viable tool for extracting Iranian concessions.
Iran’s resistance at this stage has already proven a profound truth: war not only failed to force Iran into surrender but actually granted the Islamic Republic advantages it could never have achieved in peacetime. This is not rhetoric but a consistent historical model.
Every war imposed on Iran has left the enemy weaker and Iran stronger. The enemy’s objectives are never realized. Instead, Iran emerges with new deterrent capabilities, new political leverage, and new strategic depth. War does not achieve a single one of the enemy’s goals but only makes the enemy more vulnerable relative to Iran.
That established model now imposes specific costs on the US for having imposed war on Iran. These are not negotiable niceties. The price of aggression is the firm consolidation of Iran’s control over the Strait of Hormuz, the full release of Iranian assets frozen abroad, compensation for war damages and reparations, the complete withdrawal of US forces from around Iran in the region, and the protection of the Resistance Front against enemy action.
If Iran’s diplomacy stands firm, this model will materialize. And it will create the most powerful deterrent against any future contemplation of war.
The fork in the road – A historic and fateful decision
Iran now stands at a historic and fateful crossroads. On one path lies the American threat of a potential renewed war. On the other hand lies the certainty of future, even harsher wars if Iran concedes prematurely. There is no third option of sustainable peace without cost.
Continuing resistance against US pressure at this stage could lead to either the resumption of war or the acceptance of Iran’s full terms. That uncertainty is uncomfortable, but it is the reality of strategic confrontation.
However, one thing is absolutely certain. Conceding on nuclear rights before a definitive, final end to the war will not avoid another war, but it will guarantee far more devastating wars in the future. The enemy will interpret any concession as validation of its method: war works. And it will return with greater force, greater demands, and greater brutality.
The repeated threats by the United States and the Zionist regime to resume the full-scale war demand a decisive and meaningful response. Resistance on the diplomatic front is the best answer, but it is not the only answer. Reciprocal threats from Iran’s armed forces are powerfully effective in reducing the likelihood of renewed aggression.
The IRGC’s timely and decisive threat to regionalize the war – to expand the battlefield beyond Iran’s borders – was a masterstroke. It introduced doubt into the enemy’s calculations. And doubt is the enemy of aggression.
Moreover, the repeated nuclear threats made by the enemy, especially after the direct attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities, have conclusively demonstrated that continued membership in the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) offers Iran no benefits whatsoever.
The NPT failed to protect Iran’s legal and sovereign nuclear rights. It failed to prevent attacks or to restrain the unhinged enemy. After the third imposed war – one that included not only the martyrdom of the Leader of the Islamic Revolution but also an assault on Iran’s nuclear sanctum – continued adherence to the NPT lacks any logical or rational justification.
Therefore, one of the credible threats Iran must place on the negotiating table is withdrawal from the NPT. The meaning of that threat is clear to the enemy, which means the old rules no longer apply. An Iran outside the NPT is an Iran whose nuclear calculus is no longer bound by the treaty that the enemy itself has rendered worthless.
Iran’s deterrence doctrine must now undergo fundamental reform and change. The enemy has twice imposed war in a single year. It insists on keeping the sword of war permanently suspended over Iran’s head. Under these conditions, revising deterrence is not a threat. It is a reasonable, rational, and necessary measure to keep the country safe from future wars.
Press TV @PressTV Analysis - With strategic upper hand, Iran conditions nuclear talks on war's definitive end – on its terms
By Press TV Strategic Analysis Desk https://t.co/7IkQA1le2u From presstv.ir 7:08 AM · May 21, 2026
The martyrdom of the Leader – The unpayable debt
No analysis of this war can be complete without addressing the colossal crime at its center: the cowardly assassination of the Leader of the Islamic Revolution, Ayatollah Seyyed Ali Khamenei. This was not a simple act of war. The crime demands a price far heavier than the destruction or execution of the murderers and criminals who carried it out.
Here is the sobering truth: even if all of Iran’s demands for ending the war were fully realized – even if no concessions, minimal or otherwise, were made to the enemy – it would amount to nothing compared to the true price of this assassination.
The martyrdom of the Leader crossed the highest red lines of the Islamic Republic, and crossing the highest red lines must be met with the severest punishment.
Legal and international follow-ups to register this blood vengeance are the absolute minimum that must be undertaken. But beyond that, it is natural for religious decrees (fatwas) to be issued throughout the Islamic Ummah for the implementation of retribution (qisas) against the criminal Trump, the murderers, the instigators, and the executors of this great crime. Iran must be the pioneer in this effort.
Forcing Trump to his knees before Iran and imposing upon him complete political ruin are among the minimal measures required to punish the aggressors. Any suggestion of leaving an escape route open for Trump is flawed logic, contrary to both reason and religious law. A criminal of this magnitude does not deserve a way out.
Trump PANICS as US Defeat in Iran War BLOWS UP Israel's Trap | Patrick Henningsen Danny Haiphong May 24, 2026
Patrick Henningsen discusses why the US's defeat to Iran has exposed a chilling reality about the war, a trap laid by Israel that has changed the world forever.
Transcript
Israel is reportedly pushing for renewed strikes on Iran. They're claiming that Iran is planning a surprise attack at any moment and that's why Donald Trump in his administration needs to drop any pretenses of diplomacy. There was this very interesting report uh the times of Israel citing the Washington Post that says the US has used over half of its dad interceptors defending Israel during those 37 days or so of active hostilities. And I just want to read this very important quote from the US officials who decided to disclose what was going on. and they said Israel is not capable of fighting and winning wars on its own, but nobody actually knows this because they never see the back end. Amid these reports, you have Israel pushing for renewed war and you have US officials saying that they spent half of what they had left. What do you make of this? Uh how critical is this to understanding what exactly is going on right now? Well, just on this this uh story, I think it's just emblematic of the relationship between the United States and Israel um whereby they feel compelled to have the US empty out its stocks of valuable interceptors, you know, high altitude THAAD interceptors. So, um and and Israel is obliged to hold back its stock. So, it is so for the US it's Israel first and for Israel it's Israel first. You see, and that's that's an incredible thing considering the US is always also trying to manage multiple theaters uh around the world. They're they're not just busy in West Asia. there. The US is busy in uh half a dozen other theaters and two in particular of note uh which is the Ukraine theater uh as well as the uh East Asia and and the Taiwan uh theater as well visav the uh the other allies in the region. So, I think that's uh that that should be like a real clear signal to people who might be questioning what our relationship with Israel is. That's the net net result. And it just it goes to show you that this this war, this undeclared war of aggression, this uh this sort of errant adventurism by the US vis with with Iran just getting involved with this. This is just accelerating the demise of the United States as a viable imperial power globally. It you can't manage all of these things. They're not right now. See, they're in a sort of uh production mode, capitalizing the defense industry. You see all these sort of big tech people that are now getting into defense and they they're like, "No, no, we're not going to make this mistake again. We're going to double down on production and this is what we're going to do." Palmer lucky. He's got all this great tech. Palunteer is going to do the back end. It's going to be fantastic. We're just going to churn out artillery and everything else. Whatever we need, we're have endless stream of it, right? They think that they can just switch this on and that then all the things that are that are killing the US right now in in the uh managerial imperial sense. Uh we're going to eliminate all those problems because we we're we're on it now. We're on it now. And uh it doesn't it's not going to work. It's not it's not going to work because the what's the premise of the imperial what what's the premise of the imperial mission? What's what's the what's the imperial sales pitch to the world? What what is that? That that's the important bit. You can you can build up all this constant conflict and the the the military-industrial might behind that that keep keeps it going. But if you're not if you're not able to sell this to to the world and to your own allies, you have to threaten and coers all of your allies. Then you know there's no point there's no point. What this will do is bankrupt the United States. And this is again a this is a classic symptom of latestage empire is they'll they'll then bankrupt themselves to try to maintain their previous position in the world when in fact their previous position in the world is is has has been vacated. uh probably more because of their political orientation with the world and how they're treating uh everybody and and it's just too expensive to maintain and to micromanage all of these different theaters and all these different uh um uh you know choke points and all of these different geopolitical uh flash points. That's how the British Empire collapsed. the British Empire at the height of the British Empire when it kind of peaked before its ultimate demise. It was managing something like 40 different conflicts. 40. And so it had to resource all of that, had to pay for all that. Then there's the political capital, the diplom diplomatic capital, then the economic considerations, the supply chains and so forth. that that's why they could not afford to maintain all of that. this the inter interdependency which was at one point the strength of the British Empire became the biggest liability of the British Empire and by the same token the interdependency of the US empire which is mainly a dollar driven it's a dollar-driven empire that interdependency which was its greatest asset um is now its greatest liability and that's because of the behavior of the United States itself and and and also by prioritizing economic warfare in order to let's be let's be honest the reason the US has has pursued such an aggressive sanctions agenda was to avoid having to use the military because that wasn't seen as popular or it's bad optics internationally. So, oh that's okay. We're going to sanction them. We're going to coers them to sanctions. Of course, sanctions don't work. They never have. They never proven to show that they work. They only work really against your allies, if anything. Hardly ever against your enemies. They don't change the behavior. So, it was always seen as a bloodless Americans will sell it to themselves. Congress and Senate love it because they can they can do something by passing sanctions uh without having to send troops. You know, post Vietnam, this has always been a very popular policy. But by doing so, they're they're slowly grinding down and killing the goose that laid the golden egg for Uncle Sam. And and and 7 minutesand then they're into the interdependency of the global petro dollar and the US reserve currency, the real engine of US empire. All of a sudden, it's it's now becoming a liability for everybody else holding it and really only doing the US a favor by not dumping all their treasuries on the market. and and you know what there will come a point where they'll have to dump them because otherwise it's a get something versus nothing and and that that day may be not far off. Certainly Japan these are the issues that the Japanese uh central banks are mulling over at the moment and I'm sure the Chinese and others are have been thinking the same for a very long time. the the numbers are are pretty staggering just in this report. Uh that there's uh the Washington Post report says 200 FAT interceptors left. And so if we do some simple math, half being depleted means uh 200 used uh during 37 days. That's a lot. $12.7 million per interceptor missile. It's a lot of money. And uh uh this uh goes also in league with you said there's this a huge liability being built here to being entangled in all of this all of these conflicts. Well, that liability is actually showing real results. Uh uh this center for responsible statecraft cited the acting navy secretary Hong to Tao who said that the Iran war stockpile wos are behind the pause on US munition aid to Taiwan. Um he said Donald Trump that this was a negotiating chip which is why Trump has not made a decision on this arms package the latest one to Taiwan. But it seems like actually what's happening is that the US military might which is so important to preserving this hegemony that you just described and outlined on all fronts uh that seems to be actually depleting and diminishing right before our eyes in real time. So that's that's the so here's the equation. The equation is and if you take political science or history right from you know junior high through high school to college they history in America I'll I have an American education so I'll speak and half British but I'll I'll speak about my American education focus is on war focuses on military battles dates wars generals treaties that's the focus that's what we learn about we're indoctrinated to believe that American empire is led led by military. It's not the US dollar as a as a reserve currency leads the US empire and that that financial power is backed up by the military. But if you don't have the military to back up that financial uh prepundonderance, as I call it, uh then the whole equation starts to fall apart. And isn't it amazing that we're watching that equation fall apart in real time right now? And that's to say nothing about the economic disparity between the cost of producing uh an interceptor missile or a drone in the United States uh versus the cost of producing the bogey uh in in Iran, the the Shahi drone um or the Iranian uh missile uh and and just the disparity in terms of the the economy of these two things. It's it's it's it's unbelievable. And it really would any sane person would look at this at scale and say this is clearly not sustainable. This is not sustainable economically. So then the there must be another route that is more sustainable. you know, like maybe negotiations, diplomacy, perhaps trade, you know, you know, maybe mutual 11 minutesbenefit and partnership rather than coercion and punishment. I don't know. uh but at some point you know so but hey if you're in the industry if you're in those industries right now and that's where the where the money in the US is flowing but I think I think you could also see a a you know the the defense bubble if you look at history which is interesting you have financial bubbles those can wipe out economies and countries but what can wipe out governments and regimes is a defense bubble uh and be because it's usually tied with some uh outrageous adventurism militarily. Uh and so yeah, the US whe whether it's this presidency, this administration or the next administration, uh I think this is going to have devastating consequences for for the government uh and also probably for the US economy. So this could end up also being a bubble of sorts. Pete Hexth, remember he gave this speech uh he put out this happy clappy video, this sort of like stupid little kind of it's like one of those dumb NGO videos or Sesame Street or something and he's basically saying no more of these cost overruns. We're not going to do that. And then we're robbing giving the fake populist pitch. We're rob you're robbing the American taxpayer. Come on. You just doubled the defense the war budget to 1.5 trillion and asked for another 200 billion o override. 1.7 trillion. that's jacking up our money supply and our inflation. Uh so who are you what are you talking about the middle the working class? Who who are you talking about? But that that that idea if this is where the US economy is going if the if the the def the war the war machine the war budget becomes the central the central piece in the political economy of the un of the of the United States. Uh that's assuming they're going to be winning all these wars that they're waging. That's a big assumption because if it if it goes the other way, it's not going to be a happy ending for for America. I'm just going by other historical examples. Uh not not to mention the obvious one, but you know, it's like um and and also Yeah. And they're they're depending on a lot of foreign money, too. you know, like a lot of international capital to help uh bolster this uh defense war war department, war revolution in America. Um this listen, why would Boeing or Lockheed or Rathon or whatever? Why would they put up the cost of a factory uh unless they have some guarantees? They're not going to be hiring the best engineers. And then what's Pete Hexath going to do? going to cancel their contract after two years because they're over budget and start over again and then wait two more years to wait for those interceptor missiles. Okay, so you you got the system you got in America. It's bloated. It's corrupt. It's slow. It's overpriced. It's not good value for the money. And a lot of the stuff in the field is redundant by the time it comes uh by the time it's it comes off the assembly line. But that's the system we got. It's absolutely concominant with our empire. So you're gonna have there's no way you can operate any other way. Otherwise, you got to get rid of the empire. And that ain't going to happen or they don't want it to happen. So they're stuck. You know, it's just to me amazing the delusion, the delusional mindset of these people that cope. Uh we'll call it the postimperial cope. You know, it's just incredible that they would like push some of these ideas out and clearly it's like real economists and business people even in the defense industry are looking at that happy clappy video by Hexath and going I don't think so. Like I just had lunch with you last week in New York and we weren't talking about this, you know, kind of thing. But anyway, no, I mean, and you know, this fantasy of the Golden Dome and all of these new weapons, new jets, the B-21, you know, on and on and on. Fantasies in many respects, especially when the old stuff just goes to Israel anyway. I mean, half of it is just going to go to them because and the really old stuff goes to Ukraine. Yeah. Yeah. The really they just So, it's a it is it is quite uh the mess. And and speaking of of this uh then how much of this factors into all of these reports about it feels like it's like deja vu we are back to the start where despite the the the massive military expenditure uh diminishment uh from the United States and uh and of course all the damage done to the Gulf to Israel. We're in this point again where we have a mediator this time Pakistan. Now we're here in Qatar. There's a lot of players trying to get into the mix to Russia limited framework to allow for talks and to extend the period where there's no fighting. It feels like back before February 28th when Oman went with the Omani um was it the prime minister who was who was uh uh brokering the talks went on to NBC. Foreign Minister. Yeah, foreign minister. The foreign minister of Oman went on NBC and said, "We are so close to a deal that will avoid a war and then not later, the US and Israel were bombing Iran." It seems like Israel is pushing for that. But what do you make of this uh flurry of news? Nobody, especially the US side, is giving any indication that uh there's anything genuine going on in the US side. Iran is very firm. It's about their rights. They don't have any interest in uh settling for limited frameworks. They're they're demanding what they want uh out of uh the uh destruction that they were uh uh imposed that was imposed upon them plus the fact that they believe they won. So what's your thoughts on this? Well, that I saw when I saw the the announcement going viral, the usual Twitter accounts putting out fake news. I won't mention any names, but everybody knows who they are. Saying that there's a draft of this deal and so forth. And immediately it gets leverage because that's what good propaganda does. Gets leverage. It gets traction because it's what people desire to hear. Everybody is desperate for some kind of a a peace solution or some kind of a ceasefire and some kind of a treaty or whatever. So, everyone's desperate. So, you put that out immediately, it's going to get lapped up. and what the net of that from a propaganda point of view would be like people think well okay Trump's finally you know he's finally read the writing on the wall at last Donald he's come to his senses um is and it was those those Gulf states that really brought him to to heal and brought him down to reality Qatar and the Saudis and the Kuwaitis they really tamed the the the beast of Donald Trump okay um and but none of that was true none of that was true and I I when I saw that I'm like okay and you know little media lesson you know if if you see something like that and you think wow is that happening or not just go to the Iranian media go to the Iranian uh websites go to Iran Iran's ex and Twitter accounts nothing there. So where does where does this exist? Uh it's fake news. It exists in Donald Trump's head. Uh it exists with influencer accounts on X that are all basically coining money off Elon Musk's monetization uh by putting out fake news. There's just too many of these so-called political analysis accounts or whatever. But um the the bottom line is this, Danny. Um as far as the peace process goes, in my humble opinion, I'd be happy if you know things calm down, but there ain't going to be any deals. There's not going to be any deals. there going to be no no major agreements. Um there might be announcements, there might be temporary impasses, but until this US administration demonstrates that it has the the a the uh the ADHD uh proof ability to sit down and actually get involved in some serious diplomacy, then uh I I I I see no hope for during this presidency that they'll they literally do not have the ability to do a major deal, any kind of multilateral deal. You're going to need people on the US side as guaranurs. Otherwise, ain't going to work. So, and who is that? It's not going to be a couple of Gulf states. No, you need major powers. You need China in there. You need the U. You need Russia in there to glue it. You know, you need Turkey in there to glue it down. You need other uh not just Gulf states and not just the uh and the Israelis have to give some commitment. There's no use for the US to do anything, put anything down on paper because Israel can come and undo it in a minute just by attacking that forces the US hand. So I think Danny that they are now where where Iran and the US are now is where the US and Russia were a year ago, which is Wickoff and Kushner off to Moscow for caviar. That's where they are. Pre- Alaska. Pre- Alaska. And guess what's happened with Russia and Ukraine? Nothing. Nothing. Things just grind on as they are on the ground. That's very sad to say, but I think this if that's the result of a US administration in what is probably would have been the most highstakes geopolitical risk point, which is uh tension between Europe uh and Russia with Ukraine in the middle there. And if you can't even make any headway on this, any real headway after a year and a half, I have zero confidence that they can do anything with Iran. Zero confidence. The best thing the US can do is just back off and go to the US media pretending until the midterms that nothing ever happened and just focus on something else. That's the best the US can do. They cannot architect any meaningful framework. They have a problem. It's called Israel. And uh and you're dealing Iran is not stupid. They know they're dealing with a two-headed beast. And Israel is not coming to the table. I mean, so if Israel is not coming to the table, then forget it. Forget it. It's it's going to be uh unstable, status quo, slightly chaotic. Iran's going to rebuild it and bolster its uh defenses and it's going to do what it needs to do in its near abroad to secure its national security interest exactly like Russia is doing in Ukraine. No different. 22 minutesSo that's my my my prognosis. Patrick, I I didn't take you as a neocon, but uh Robert Kagan has said something similar. They're not exactly the same, but he said that Trump is hoping to the best case scenario for him or at least this isn't what Robert Kagan is arguing. Uh even though it's likely the best case scenario, Robert Kagan is saying that Trump's actions seem to be attempting to slip away without Americans noticing the magnitude of the defeat in Iran. This is the second piece in as many weeks that Robert Kagan has wrote. uh very scathing, deceptive and scathing. Deceptive in the sense that uh it's uh promoting a more effective kind of war on Iran uh while attempting to uh argue that uh everything Trump has done is ineffective and totally on him. Um but also there are reports to Patrick about this. You know, Donald Trump said something very strange where he said he has something called Iran to deal with uh when it comes to his son's wedding. So, his son is getting married uh over the Memorial Day weekend. And then he just I don't even know Eric. I don't know. Oh, Donald J. Donald Jr. Yes. Yes. So, um the one that the Indonesian president supposedly called him a good boy or something and he wanted to meet with him further. Very strange family. Of course, we know the activities that they are involved with both financially and uh let's say otherwise. And he just announced that he will not be going to the wedding after all. And this has made people concerned that this is because uh the United States is kind of dropping everything to hold on to the possibility of renewed war on Iran. Uh given that Israel is pushing with the surprise attack narrative, Trump himself has said, "Oh, we'll give a few days and see if we get the answer that we like." They're not going to get the answer that they like, Patrick. So, uh, what do you make of all this? This appears, I mean, it's unprecedented how clownish this is, but also it is, as Reuters has reported, an indicator this is where we're at. uh looking at what Trump is saying on Truth Social because that's how he is governing foreign policy. This is literally what European diplomats are saying, this is what uh many people are saying in the administration that they just hold a screen of true social and they wait to see what Trump says to get an indication of what they should be doing. The one of the tells was last week when when Donald Trump said, "I was uh I was I was about to attack. We've been we would have been doing it by now. we've been doing. But uh the the Qataris and I think he I think it was the Saudis, I can't remember. Two Gulf states said, "No, wait, wait, wait. We're making progress on the negotiations. What on earth is he talking about?" Anyway, that was his story. and that that that what what that was was this um that he that the US wasn't ready and they've had some issues between themselves and Israel that are probably more like logistical issues more than anything. You know, there Axios reported that there was a scathing phone call between Trump and Netanyahu, but quite frankly, I don't I don't believe anything in Axios that's foreign policy related, especially when it pertains to Israel. And how many times have we heard the scathing phone call from Trump and then they work in coordination to escalate war right after this? That's called Wrestlemania, Danny. It's called Wrestlemania. So, there is an element of that. Okay. But what what more likely what Trump is referring to and you have to be able to translate Trump because he just makes things up on the fly. But there's always an element of truth. There's like a thread or there's some he there are real things in the thread of what he's talking about. You just have to rearrange them. And I think uh the the truth in what Trump was saying was that he's act they actually have problems uh regarding Saudi Arabia the usage of airspace for attacks on Iran and the use of Saudi bases for direct attacks and Qatar as well as all of the GCC countries Kuwait included more more than anybody because they're in the closest proximity to Iran. But that's the that's been a real uh I think sticking point and a real obstacle for the United States in trying to mount an attack because it means you just all of a sudden you've got more narrow attack vectors against Iran. You don't have full control and you don't have run of the table as it were. Iraq is also a massive problem now for the United States. And so Iran has made some changes and they have no doubt made some major contingencies. Uh and probably I would say uh I wouldn't put it out of the realms of possibility that Iran could have slightly more westernly forward operating positions. Let's just put it that way. Um than they might have had before. And that changes things as well. So it just puts a little additional pressure on uh on the United States in mounting such an attack on Israel as well. So I think that's what Trump was kind of referring to when he was talking about the Gulf States because they weren't negotiating with the Iranians. you know I mean it might have been conversations happening but between the US it's middlemen people in Pakistan Saudi and the Pakistanis who are very very close those two governments and and in terms of of defense and foreign policy but that's what I think that's how I would translate that so yes it is uh very um it's very tense right now so I don't discount any of these reports that you're saying I think The Iranians are very realistic about they're preparing for an attack. Um the US is playing the sort of political game. The Iranians are like we're just preparing for an imminent attack. And but but still there's a chance that this could run into problems because the United States at the end of the day is a slave uh to all sorts of political uh twoing and throwing um that that drives our our uh our political system. So, and and you're talking about the exial existential survival of this administration, the Republican party in the midterms, plus a lot of other big business and uh energy and industrial concerns, economic concerns. All these things are just additional spanners in in the works of this story. And there's too many of them actually. And you know what? The longer you wait, the more the tougher it is to restart this war because there's nothing popular about this war. No one supports it. 29 minutesThere is no benefits from it. It's only been drawbacks. And the longer you wait, every day you wait, you make it more difficult to prosecute and it gives more time for other people to intervene, including golf powers and other international actors, including the Chinese, including the Russians. More phone calls. Don't do it, Donald. If you do, that's going to happen. And you start adding these things up and the calculus changes. If he was to do he should have, if he was able to, he would have done it a month ago. But the US did probably doesn't have the uh the equipment or the ammunition to actually do that. So somehow they think that they got an opportunity here. It it can only be a short run. It can only be We're talking they've acknowledged over and over. Yeah. two week campaign max, maybe three. But what what's the what's week three look like? US jets going into Iranian airspace and getting shot down. Yes, because that's how the last one ended. That's true. o, you know, it it's just there's so many drawbacks to this. It's really hard. I can't unless they're they're planning to do something really stupid. I mean the the really stupid thing too is what uh that curious report in Reuters talking about the uh the curious way in which the Trump administration administers foreign policy at this time. Uh it's my understanding and in our last few minutes you can react to this. This seems like the Trump administration really wanted to and Donald Trump himself maybe wanted to go for this strike the moment he posted on uh True Social that he wanted to end Iran's civilization that it was going to all end. Uh and there were concerns from Europeans that are you talking about a nuclear weapon? Because when you say you're gonna wipe out everybody, you need a weapon strong enough to do that. You don't have weapons conventionally strong enough to do that. So are you talking about nukes? And nobody knew. 31 minutesNobody knew. But uh ultimately I think uh it seems like the delay uh uh had a lot to do with these limitations and all these variables which the US empire as you said cannot handle. There's too many. There's too many. The economic fallout, the military fallout, the political fall, and there's there's intricacies in various variables within each of these fronts that uh it does feel like a gamble and kind of throwing, you know, dipping your hand in one of them and saying, "Okay, we'll go with that one." Um, and that is that that is concerning. Not to mention the fact that it seems like the Trump administration has this idea that if it can get a victory that might be more worthwhile now and they're talking about Cuba. They move Nimmits over to Cuba. So um and which I don't think will actually be a victory. I don't think it'll end up like Venezuela, but there there are those who are are looking at this. So uh your final comments uh Patrick before we wrap up here? Yeah, I mean uh the the I can see Cuba has a lot of appeal to Trump. Uh it's a country that's more or less defenseless. Uh you know, from a heavy military point of view, so you could beat them up, whail on them, uh bully them around. I mean, that's more Trump's flavor, I think. Uh very close to home, so probably not going to spend a whole lot of money. Um I mean, it looks good on the surface, doesn't it? Like, you know, look at what we did in Venezuela. We're going to do the same here. I somehow I don't think it's going to end the same as Venezuela. Cuba is a whole different story. I think an invasion or a military incursion or attack on Cuba, I think that will well and truly be the end of this administration. I think that will be the final tipping point. Um and and if if if they do go for that, it would be to parlay uh the disappointment of not doing what they hoped they could do to Iran, which we're not really clear exactly what that is. There's so many different uh mission statements and ideas that have been floated out. They can't quite seem to figure out what the objectives are militarily or or politically or whatever uh in Iran. And so I don't think they're going to be able to achieve. It's easy not to achieve something that you haven't actually specified. I guess this is in the Danzoo art of war uh art of war, art of the deal of war, whatever. Don Don Trump's new book, guide book on on how to prosecute wars when he he retires. It'll be a great handbook for future failed leaders. But so it'll be interesting to see uh how that progresses. I I think for this administration, I could see them a lot of appeal. We we can get a win in Cuba. Mr. President, I know we can get a win. I can see Hegathth and these guys just getting off right now. Rubio and everybody else. Viceroy Marco Rubio. I like the sound of it. It really has a ring to it, doesn't it? Viceroy Rubio. another job title for Marco. As if he doesn't have enough already. Um I don't So maybe Cuba could be the saving grace for Iran if that becomes more politically expedient, but it's still going to end in disaster for the Trump administration. I I really that's going to be one hand too many at the table. I just have a feeling. Uh never I mean I just think they underestimated the Iranians. That's clearly, you could say from a military and political perspective that was the big mistake. They underestimated the Iranians in all levels of capability, including the ability for Iran to troll them on social media with, you know, bringing the US propaganda machine down with Lego videos. Nobody saw that coming. So I 35 minutesthink uh Cuba as well has so much global support and a lot you'll see that support come come to bear uh if the US attacks and and I think yeah Cuba has deep deep deep political support globally which is incredible for a country that small but it shows you how uh symbolic they are and how important they are for like the global working class for the global south and I think you're going to see diplomatic is The US has no basis for doing anything to Cuba. Cuba hasn't done anything to the United States. They're still grinding in acts of Castro's revolution 70 odd years ago if if that's what this is about. I mean, the perfect example, the the indictment of Raul Castro this week. What a clown show. They're indicting him for intervening in what was clearly a CIA operation. a ter for intervening in a CIA terrorist operation against Cuba. I mean, is that the best they could come up with? So, what you're you're you're wanting to indict this person for trying to thwart one of your clandestine terrorist attacks on on Cuba? Seriously, do you think the public's that stupid? You guys must be that stupid to think that you could sell this. I mean, this this is just a level of clownery that I didn't think the you that this administration had it in them, but I mean, no limits, I guess. But, uh, just I mean, unbelievable. So, this shows us, Danny, that either they're incompetent or they're not serious or this is a truly a clown show with with Washington because there's hundred other things you could have spun up, fake indictments. I mean, just put some smart people in a room and they'll come up with something plausible after a few hours, you know? Yeah. Some fake drug charges or something. I don't know. But that to actually go for this one, the brothers to the rescue shootown in 1996, you want to do that one that sort of failed CIA operation and hang Cuba, hang the Cuban uh leadership for that. Seriously, you're dealing with a low IQ cabal that that have superglued themselves to this Trump administration. This is I can't imagine who's Whose brainchild is this? Is this is this from Marco Rubio's office? Is this Sebastian Gorka? Have we got Steven Miller involved in spinning this one up? I mean, they or is this is this are these MAGA supporters from Miami? people that golf with Trump that who spun this up? This one's amazing.
