PART 3 ANTI-ANTI-NAZI BARBARIAN HORDES ARE KNOCKING DOWN THE

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June 14: Iran, US reach MoU to end imposed war, to be signed in Geneva on Friday
Sunday, 14 June 2026 10:29 PM [ Last Update: Sunday, 14 June 2026 10:29 PM ]
By Press TV Website Staff
https://www.presstv.ir/Detail/2026/06/1 ... eva-friday

Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif announced that a deal had been reached between Tehran and Washington to end the US-imposed war on the Islamic Republic.

Iranian officials also confirmed the development, saying a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) will be signed in Geneva on Friday.

Earlier, the Israeli regime carried out fresh airstrikes on Beirut’s southern suburbs, prompting strong reactions from Iran, with officials stressing that attacks on Lebanon cross red lines.

The day also saw senior military commanders reaffirm the readiness of Iran’s armed forces to respond to any new act of aggression. At the same time, Hezbollah fighters continued to confront Israeli occupation forces attempting to advance in southern Lebanon.

Key developments on day 106 of the war, the 66th day of the ceasefire:

Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif claimed that a “peace deal” between the US and the Islamic Republic of Iran had been reached after intensive talks.

Sharif said that under the deal, both sides have declared the immediate and permanent termination of military operations on all fronts, including in Lebanon.

Iran’s Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi also announced that the memorandum of understanding (MoU) between Iran and the US has been finalized and will be officially signed on Friday in Switzerland.

Gharibabadi also declared the immediate end of the US naval blockade and the permanent cessation of the US-Israeli war on all fronts.

Commander of Khatam al-Anbiya Central Headquarters Major General Ali Abdollahi said the armed forces have “finger on the trigger,” warning that any miscalculation will be met with a devastating strike “at the heart of the enemy.”

Israel carried out a new airstrike on Beirut’s southern suburbs, escalating tensions in Lebanon despite a ceasefire that Iran said remains a key condition for any broader agreement to end the war in the region.

Secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council Mohammad Bagher Zolqadr warned that a response was “imminent” following an Israeli strike on Beirut’s southern suburbs. He said Lebanon and its resistance are the "very life" of Iran, adding that the Islamic Republic will consider attacks on Lebanon as a violation of its red lines.

Major General Yadollah Javani, deputy commander of the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC) for political affairs, stated that Iran’s Armed Forces are fully prepared to confront any hostile action, warning the enemies that the country stands ready to deliver an immediate response to any aggression by its enemies.

Iran’s parliament speaker and top negotiator, Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf, issued a warning to the Israeli regime, declaring that the enemy will never be able to single out any part of the resistance, and that Iran’s powerful diplomacy alongside the bravery of Lebanese fighters will guarantee Lebanon’s sovereignty and dismantle Israeli warmongering.

Speaker Qalibaf said Israel’s attack on Lebanon's capital, Beirut, shows that the Trump administration lacks either the will or the ability to fulfil its commitments.

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said any new security arrangement in the West Asia region that disregards the Islamic Republic is bound to fail, reiterating Tehran's call for an inclusive regional framework.

Gholamhossein Mohseni-Eje’i, Iran’s judiciary chief, said all state officials are united in resisting foreign pressure, stressing that there is no disagreement over standing firm against threats despite possible differences over methods.

Brigadier General Amir Alireza Elhami, commander of the Khatam al-Anbiya Joint Air Defence Headquarters, said the Islamic Republic will rapidly replace air defense systems and equipment damaged during the US-Israeli aggression, emphasizing the country's reliance on domestically developed military technology.

Deputy Foreign Minister for Legal and International Affairs, Kazem Gharibabadi, said the sacrifices of the country's martyrs and the leadership of the martyred Leader of the Islamic Revolution Ayatollah Seyyed Ali Khamenei have made the Islamic Republic "stronger, more aware, and more determined than before."

The Iranian intelligence ministry said it carried out successful anti-terrorism, espionage and sabotage operations in the country during the 40-day US-Israeli aggression. The ministry stated that it arrested four terrorists, one spy and dozens of members of sabotage networks seeking to foment riots on the streets during the days of the aggression on Iran.

At least 25 deer were confirmed dead on Iran’s southern Kharg Island following attacks during US-Israeli aggression against Iran, with environmental officials warning the actual toll is likely significantly higher.

Fighters from the Hezbollah resistance movement confronted Israeli forces as they were attempting to infiltrate into areas in southern Lebanon, targeting troop and vehicle concentrations with barrages of rockets and kamikaze drones.

Lebanon filed two separate complaints with the United Nations Security Council and the UN Secretary-General over Israeli attacks on its territory.

Former Israeli prime minister and current opposition politician Yair Lapid said a potential agreement between Iran and the United States would fail to achieve the Israeli regime's stated war objectives. He sharply criticized the truce, calling it a "political disaster" for Benjamin Netanyahu.

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Hezbollah congratulates Iran on 'great achievement' of imposing end to aggression
Monday, 15 June 2026 2:52 PM [ Last Update: Monday, 15 June 2026 2:52 PM ]
https://www.presstv.ir/Detail/2026/06/1 ... n-end-deal

Lebanon’s Hezbollah says putting an end to aggression on all fronts was a great achievement for Iran.

The Lebanese resistance movement Hezbollah has congratulated Iran on the great achievement of reaching an agreement with the United States that imposed an end to the US-Israeli aggression on the country and its allies in the region.

In a statement issued on Monday, Hezbollah said that the memorandum of understanding reached between Iran and the US, which is planned to be signed in the coming days, is a major breakthrough which helps work out a “comprehensive ceasefire” on all fronts of the war of aggression, including in Lebanon, where Hezbollah has been responding to Israeli attacks since early March.

“This great achievement is the fruit of the legendary steadfastness, exceptional resilience, and immense sacrifices made by the dear Iranian people and their wise leadership,” said the statement.

Hezbollah also appreciated the Leader of the Islamic Revolution, Ayatollah Seyyed Mojtaba Khamenei, the Iranian government and military, especially the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC), and the people of Iran for standing alongside Lebanon by insisting that any agreement to end the war of aggression must also cover Lebanon.

Hezbollah said, however, that the ceasefire deal reached between Iran and the US would be a prelude to the group’s efforts to completely liberate the Lebanese territory that was occupied by the Israeli regime since the beginning of the US-Israeli aggression on Iran in late February, when the Lebanese resistance group started fighting Israel in support of Iran.

https://www.presstv.ir/Detail/2026/06/15/770499/Baghaei-Lebanon-inseparable-Iran-US-deal
Iran says end of Israeli war on Lebanon ‘inseparable’ part of understanding with US
Iran says termination of the Israeli war on Lebanon is an “inseparable” part of an agreement between Tehran and Washington that brings a permanent end to the illegal US-Israeli aggression against the Islamic Republic.

Hezbollah warned Israel that there would be no return to the status quo that existed before March 2, when the Israeli escalation in Lebanon started.

It said that Israel must also release all prisoners, and allow hundreds of thousands who have been displaced by the war to return to their homes and villages near the Lebanese border with occupied Palestine.

The statement said that Hezbollah will remain “the vigilant guardian” of Lebanon and its people, and “will not accept any aggression that violates its sovereignty or sheds the blood of its citizens.”

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Larry Johnson: Israel’s Sabotage Backfires – Trump’s Last Move ENDS Israel's Agenda
Dialogue Works
Streamed live 2 hours ago Interviews 02



Transcript

Hi everybody. Today's Monday, June 15, 2026, and our dear friend Larry Johnson is here with us. Welcome back.

I'm putting in for a raise, man. You've been working me like a field mule. "Show up here. Show up there. Okay." Actually, it was fun having the chat with Professor Marandi, and I didn't have my shirt on, so he gave me a hard time.

Yeah, Larry, let's start with the new statement on the part of Hezbollah in Lebanon because last night when we were talking, many people were arguing what what was the main reason that Iran has decided not to retaliate against, you know, Israeli attack on Lebanon. And as professor Marandi last night said that there is some sort of concession in this new tax between Iran and the United States that may benefit Lebanon in a long run. Mhm. And the statement today by Hezbollah I think but before going to the statement we had Lebanese people going to the southern part of Lebanon. They're so happy right now because they're getting back to their homes. Israelis are still there but it seems that they cannot do much about it because huge you know crowd is going to to the southern part in those cities in Nebatayah, Tyre, and those cities in the southern part of Lebanon which were bombed by Israelis.

But the new statement of Hezbollah, I think what is so important, it says it welcomes the Iran US agreement and ceasefire. Hezbollah congratulates Iran for reaching a memorandum of understanding with the United States. It describes the agreement as a major achievement that has resulted in a comprehensive ceasefire across multiple fronts including Lebanon. It talks about the leadership in Iran, the people in Iran, how they sacrificed everything for the acts of resistance, how they helped Lebanon. And praised the Iranian supreme leader, former Iranian supreme leader and the new supreme leader. the Iranian president and Hezbollah expresses gratitude for Iran's political and strategic support to Lebanon and the resistance movement. It highlights that Lebanon's interest be included in any ceasefire agreement, that Iran is going to consider all the concerns on the part of the Hezbollah and Lebanese people

And the other point in this is the call for Lebanese unity, which is so important. Asbah argues that Lebanon should use the current international and regional support to strengthen its sovereignty. It urges the Lebanese government and political factions to adopt a unified national position.

I think what's important is with the new leadership in Syria, the the head of HTS is talking about their negotiations, their experience with Israel. We had the Syrian so-called president saying to the Lebanese prime minister that there is no point to negotiate with Israelis. They did that but nothing positive came out of those negotiations. On the other hand, we had the United States talking about maybe Syria can join Israel in that fight in the southern part of Lebanon, and the Syrian advisor to the president of Syria said no we're not going to be part of this. The different political factions in Lebanon are getting to the point to understand there is no way to negotiate with the occupier in Lebanon. Hezbollah is mentioning this and the other points and the goals of the future. He says the complete liberation of Lebanese territory, return of Lebanese prisoners, Lebanese prisoners in Israel, return of displaced residents to their homes in the southern part of Lebanon, reconstruction of areas damaged during the conflict, these are the goals of Hezbollah that were mentioned. And they're talking about the acts of resistance, how they have to bring everybody together to make a deal. They know that the conflict is not over, and they don't want to be too optimistic about what's going on, but this is the new reality, that there is some sort of MOU happening between the two sides which maybe Hezbollah and Lebanon would benefit from, and Iran and the United States would benefit from that. This is the understanding on the part of Hezbollah.

Larry, I think there is good coordination between Iran and Lebanon in terms of understanding what's at stake right now, and what would the future challenges are going to be, considering the Israeli occupation of Lebanon. What is your understanding of the position of Hezbollah?

[Larry] Well, look, think of it this way. When the Lebanese civil war started 51 years ago, the people who were the young activists in that war, they're 75, 80 years old now. Okay? So, they're really old people if they survived. And that means that people who are 55 years of age and younger, really, have no memory of that. All they've known is civil war. That's all they've known. The invasion of southern Lebanon in 1982, and you know initially the Shia welcomed the Israelis I'm told, and then the Israelis being the Israelis they quickly wore out their welcome. But the situation that has changed is during the 1970s into the early 1980s, Lebanon was very much a pawn. It was a pingpong ball. It was caught between Israeli efforts to control it. The Bashir Hafz al-Assad, the father of Bashir al-Assad, and his support for Amal, played an important role in meddling in the politics of of Lebanon. I think back then the tensions between the Sunnis and the Shia were higher because of the previous massacre that Hafz al-Assad had carried out. And Israel, I don't know if you want to say it was as strong back then, but Iran was new. It was barely getting on its feet, trying to figure out what what to do. It was not flush with resources. So where we are right now is really the first time since Iran's establishment in 79 it has committed to fighting on behalf and in coordination with Hezbollah. And the Lebanese government is too weak to take on Hezbollah. The Lebanese army, at least 40% of the soldiers are Shia Muslims, with relatives that are tied into Hezbollah. So, there's not a military solution in Lebanon. It's not a matter of, "Okay, we're going to restart the civil war, and expand that." So Israel is once again caught thinking it can militarily change Lebanon, and eliminate Hezbollah. That's not going to happen. And get control of the government of Lebanon. That's not going to happen.

And I did see a report before coming on with you that the Golani brigade is withdrawing. They're taking a break. They're going on RNR. But they're they're essentially withdrawing from Lebanon. So we're starting to see that maybe this MOU that is supposed to be signed on Friday may actually have some teeth to it. Because the Iranians affirm that it says immediate and permanent ceasefire, which effectively means Israel's got to pull out of southern Lebanon. And I think that's fully the expectation on the part of Iran and Hezbollah. So if that doesn't happen, then that unravels this agreement right off the start. It's stillborn. it's dead in the crib, so to speak.

So that's one thing we're monitoring this week, monitoring today, is is there any sign that the Israelis are moving out, or are they continuing to attack? And by tomorrow, they most definitely should be moving and disengaging.

But suspect that they won't do that, because there's no political support in Israel for that move. And unless Donald Trump really pulls the plug on support for Israel, which he has the power to do, but I don't know if he has the political will to do it. I doubt he has the political will to do it, so this is why I call this agreement the IOU.

We'll see. Because it's not guaranteed that it's going to be signed, and we don't even have clarity yet on what the document the United States has compared with the document Iran has. Let's see them both. Put them out there. Let's compare them side by side. Because we're hearing different things from the United States side. As you mentioned, JD Vance is saying something completely different than what the Iranian version says. Where US says Iran can't charge tolls, Iran says hell, yes, we're charging tolls. They just don't use the word toll. This withdrawal out of Lebanon is immediate and permanent from the Iranian standpoint. That's what their document says. The United States is supposed to give that $12 billion upfront. And the United States says, hell, no, they don't get that upfront. Immediate sanction relief? No. It's not immediate.

So, the two sides are just sort of engaged in self-delusion. They're telling themselves what they want to hear instead of stepping back and saying, "Okay, what does it actually say, and what's the other side actually doing?"

Yeah, we've learned from both sides, JD Vance today and the Iran's foreign ministry spokesman, said the same thing, that they're going to release the document on Friday as they sign it. They're going to release the document for everybody to see and to read the document. And here is what the Iranian side said today about Iran being responsible for managing passage through the strait in coordination with Oman. Iran is not seeking to impose tolls. However, in return for navigation services, environmental protection, insurance, and other maritime services, Iran will collect the necessary fees. It seems Larry, not only is it going to be in the hand of Iran and Oman, but they're willing to talk with other Arab nations, GCC countries in the region in order to calm down the situation, to reduce the friction that exists among these countries. And this is the agenda on their part. If I'm not mistaken, in the first 60 days of the agreement, there would be no fee, or there would be no toll, in the strait of hormuz.

Again that's confusing, because in the first 60 days they're not going to charge, but they say they are going to charge.

So again, I think frankly if Iran has agreed to not charge for the first 60 days, they're insane. They haven't learned a goddamn thing in the course of the last two years! You do not trust the United States. I mean, it's ridiculous. Make them pay! That is their leverage. That is Iran's leverage.

Still, I don't know. This is the rumor. I haven't heard it from the United States. I haven't heard it from the Iranian officials. None of them talk about it. The only thing that the Iranian side said today, was that they're going to charge the fee, and it's going to be decided between Iran and Oman. And there's not going to be any any other player. Let's see what is the outcome of that.

But Larry, JD Vance had an interview on MSNBC. He's talking the way that he's talking about the deal. He's so optimistic. I don't know where that comes from. He says we have the connection. We are talking to the reformists, to the hardliners, to the hardliners to the right, to the middle. They have connection with all parts of the government in Iran, and the negotiation are happening. And he says that he's not talking about the back channels. He's talking about direct talks, direct negotiations between the two sides. I haven't seen any sort of evidence to support that. I think she's making things up.

Yeah, I agree. If it's true, then that's a welcome development. But Iran's got to have some clear benchmarks of what is going to happen the minute they sign on Friday. Does Israel magically withdraw from Lebanon? No. They got to be on their way out before then. Frankly, looking at this deal, overall I think it's a terrible deal. It doesn't serve Iran's interests. I mean, it's frankly naive.

What did he say?

Well, he said the release of Iran's frozen assets and compensation for war damages are two key priorities. Of course they are. And that the United States is committed to implementing them. Excuse me, but fuck that! What's the date? Get specific. "By Friday, the United States is going to lift sanctions." But they don't do that. So it goes on to say Iran considers access to assets its legal right, and continues to firmly demand compensation for this unlawful war. "Demand"? No, put it in specifics that Iran is submitting a bill for say 300 billion dollars, and the United States agrees that that will be funded and paid. "The United States is obliged"! How are they obliged, for God's sake. Is the Iranian delegation really this damn naive? Oh, the United States promised they're obliged. They're not obliged by anything. They have no obligation. There's no legal obligation. You don't have their troops trapped where they're saying, "Okay, yeah, let our troops go and we'll give you these things." So the more these details come out, I think that that one conservative member of the Iranian parliament, I think he's exactly right. You know, frankly, Araghchi probably ought to be removed from office over this.

Yeah. We don't know exactly what's going on in that document, because if you look at the what JD Vance just moments ago said on on CNBC, he said that we don't give Iranians anything if they don't make the commitments that we want on their long-term nuclear program.

Yeah, that's what they're saying. So, I don't know what the issue is with the nuclear program. Iran has declared that they're not pursuing nuclear weapons, and they're not going to buy it from somewhere else. And that's the whole pointfpr the Iranians. So, what else do they want from the Iranian side?

Surrender. That's what they want. They want surrender. I guess the Iranian foreign minister is trying to accommodate the Pakistanis, who've been pushing for this broad agreement. He keeps saying the United States is obligated to do this, or it's obligated to do that, or it's committed to do this. Okay. How are they obligated? All they've got is their promise that they're going to do this, but they don't give a specific date and time for doing it. And it's like, didn't Iran learn anything under the JCPOA? They had all these promises and asurances there, and when it was convenient for Trump, he just tore it up, because it has no legal standing. This MOU has no legal standing! It's just two different groups giving assurances to the other side. "Oh yeah, we're serious about this."

Let me put it this way. One side is lying, and that's the United States. It seems upon signing the document on Friday, they're going to release half of Iranian frozen assets. No, they're not. That's what the Iranians think is going to happen. Because the United States has made it clear we're not releasing a goddamn thing.

I think there is a lot to be learned about this document. A lot of questions.

Yeah. That's why I say that the United States needs to release its document. Iran needs to release its document. Let's put them side by side, and see if they say the same thing. I bet you they don't.

I suppose that they have the same document. They don't need to release it separately.

No, my understanding is that if they sign it, it's going to be a unique document. It's not going to be different. Two versions of --


But you're not understanding me. What I'm telling you is right now they're claiming they have an agreement. Yeah. But they don't have the same documents. So each side thinks, "Oh, I got agreement on this." Iran thinks we're going to get $12 billion up front. And the United States is saying, "Hell no, they're not getting $12 billion. They can go pound sand. That's not going to happen." So, that's still being worked out. That's why I said I think this thing will be derailed by Friday.

Could be. Could be. Just moments ago Netanyahu said that they have never experienced such international pressure. And JD Vance in the interview said that Israel has to come to the table. I don't know how serious is that. Let's see what would happen. I think JD Vance's record is not positive. Look at what JD Vance said so far.

Yeah. But look, Donald Trump holds the power over Israel if he is willing to use it. And the big question is is he willing to use it. Israel depends right now on US air refuelers in order to carry out strikes on Iran. So if Israel wants to re-engage and attack Iran, they need US air refuelers. Without that they can't. So Trump has it in his power to say, "Okay, we're calling all those back. We're ordering all US assets to return immediately to the United States.? That would send one message to Israel.

Here is JD Vance. We are extending an open hand to Iran. If they want to change their relationship with us, we will change our relationship with Iran. And I think it's too far to say that because basically you are fighting each other right now. You have some sort of document, a new memorandum of understanding, where you're talking about understandings far away from the point we are at right now. And the other point is that JD Vance is saying that there are elements within Israel that like the deal quite a bit. I think this is a total lie. Have you seen anything coming out of Israel that there are some factions within the Israeli government or Israeli society, who are important among the decision makers, who are happy with the deal? AHave you seen any evidence whatsoever?

No, I haven't. There's nobody in Israel happy with this deal at all. And that raises the next question that if Israel can rely upon US support, it's going to do whatever it wants. But it looks like Trump was mad enough that he may have forced the issue. So, we'll see.

The Israelis do not have KC 135s. I checked that. I thought they did, and I started researching it last night. I was shocked to discover they don't. So they use an older variant. They do have air refuelers, but they don't have the fleet that the United States has. And frankly those planes had been based forward at Prince Sultan Air Base, which is one of the major refueling stops. But in the future, Israel is not going to have permission to overfly Saudi Arabia. So if they want to attack Iran, they're going to have to fly over Syria, and over Iraq, and over Jordan. If Iraq had air defense systems worth a damn, then Israel wouldn't be able to overfly Iraq. But Iraq doesn't. So, Israel just ignores them and keeps flying.

Yeah. I think the GCC countries are happy right now because if the strait is working, if there is no blockade in the strait of Hormuz, they're going to be able to export more oil, whatever they have. But you remember the damage that has been done during the war. It may take time for them to --

No, no, no, no, no, wait a second. Don't say "may take time. It is going to take time." There is physical damage to oil wells, and especially in the liquid natural gas facility that some say is going to take a year to repair. And if that takes a year to repair, that means the whole issue of helium production, man, that's out the door. So right away, you're 10% down in liquid natural gas, and 44% of the world's helium not coming out of the Gulf right now. So even if the Gulf is opened on Friday, number one, you've got all these ships that have been sitting there for 3 months. They've got barnacle buildup. They're not ready to go back to sea. They're going to have to be serviced. I've heard as high as a thousand ships, and some say there are just 200, but it's a large number of ships that are going to have to get serviced before they can even begin to go out back to sea. Then I don't think we've got a good accurate assessment of the damage to the oil wells. How much can actually be pumped? How much can actually be put on board ships? And then once you get it on the ship, you're looking at anywhere from, I guess the soonest it can get to a location might be a month, and in other cases it could be two to three months that those ships will be at sea heading for their destination. So all this euphoria about the economy is going to turn around like Trump says? It's not. In reality, it's going to hit at some point. They just keep pretending like, oh yeah, this is the relief; the oil shortage is gone. No, it's not. And I'm increasingly frustrated with what I see is just this insanity!

He was asked JD Wance was asked what is the Gulf Coalition saying about the Trump's peace deal? He said they love it
because they see it they see it as an opportunity to build or and create a new
Middle East. I think that that's totally dependent on what Israel is doing in Lebanon and in Gaza. You cannot ignore
what's going on. Do you think Larry, you've said you you've mentioned the limitations of the Israelis if they decide to attack Iran with the refueling
tankers all of that complexity not only the offensive part but in the in terms of their defensive their capability air
defense system they have their you know their sort of problems and what is the solution today I talk
with Colonel Jacqu Bu he says the only solution to what Israel is doing is a total defeat by Iranians.
Yeah, no, I' I'd agree with that. Yeah, there's no halfway mark. Israel is going
to have to lose and that's, you know, not going to make the Israelis happy, but uh their entire
uh ethnogenocidal project is going to have to come to an end. that uh you know
right now the the Ben Ben Gavver's Smootri U attitude to exterminate the
Palestinians and anybody else who's not Jewish.
You know, that's why they're threat threatening Turkey.
That's not that's not an idol threat either. And that's not coming from that's not coming from Ben Ben Gavir.
Good God. It came from uh the was it Napali the former is either Bennett or Napali one of those guys. So someone
considered somewhat mainstream threatening tur turkey.
Uh you know you can't this is just crazy talk. You can't make that up. Yeah.
JD Vance describes the agreement as he says it's fundamentally built around a
two-step verification process. We say to the Iranians, you are welcome to have access to an unsanctioned e economy.
You're welcome to be reinvited into the glo into the world economy, but if but
only if you honor the commitments that you make in this agreement. To be honest, I see no commitment in this
agreement for Iranians. I don't know other than Iranian nuclear program, what are the commitments and because in terms of the straight of
Hermos, it seems that the Israeli attack on Lebanon and the Iranian response, Iranian retaliation somehow forced the
Trump administration to put that line about the straight form.
Yeah. to that line about Lebanon in the MOU as it was mentioned last night by professor Mirandi. That's my
understanding. But the commitment that he's keep he keeps talking about it.
It's all about nuclear program. The enrichment it's I think zero enrichment is just not the case anymore. they're
not going to accept it and the United States has somehow agreed on and it's going to be
the level of enrichment and the nuclear program then the nuc the the production of nuclear bombs that's the whole
commitment on the part of Iranians what else do they want from Iran in terms of commitments yeah no well that's why I said we don't
know it's nothing spelled out again Iran has released a document saying, "Okay, this is what we've agreed
to." US hasn't. So, until the United States releases a document, all we're doing is, you know, wasting time
speculating. We don't know. All we can do is go off what have, you know, we got what JD Vance has said. We've got
anonymous US government officials saying the exact 180 degree opposite from what Iran is saying.
Someone's lying.
real real simple. Um and you know like Bay said you know the the release of
Iran's frozen assets and compensation for war damages are two key economic priorities
and that the US is committed to implementing them. Okay. When now immediately upfront 60 days from now 90 days from now.
Yeah. This is where the you're going to do this kind of agreement. Spell this stuff out specifically who does what and
when do they do it and and you get a clear benchmark. So um
you know the United States says okay we want uh you know we want you to sign this on Friday. And Iran should say
great let's see that 12 billion now now. not promise us, oh, we'll get we'll
get it to you sometime after they signed the agreement on Friday. No, no, no. That that's not how this works.
You know, you've now got to put money in upfront. And I think supposedly that was what uh Iran gained some concessions on
that front yesterday when after the Israeli attack on Dia, uh Iran was going to pull the plug on the negotiations.
The United States basically bribed him to stay on. Okay.
specifically what how much money when is the released etc and that that we don't know
today said that Israel will continue to act with every tool in its at its
disposal to overthrow the murderous regime in Iran. Do you think that the United States is still there with the with Israel in terms of regime change or
the United States has changed its mind about the regime change because of the outcome of the war?
Well, it it doesn't matter what what the US mentality is whether they change
their mind or not. The reality is the United States cannot change the regime in Iran.
So, you know, whether they believe and want to do it or not, you know, that could be a policy priority.
But um again, this is just this just highlights the u the uh I guess lack of
consensus between the United States and and Iran
that they we've got two different agreements, I think, and they haven't been reconciled yet.
Yeah.
Bengeir. Here is what Bengeir said moments ago. Larry, a sovereign state is not a subcontractor of any superpower.
It's not obliged to to agreements that shut down its ability to defend its people. In the face of existential
threats, we must act under external pressure, but according to our own conscience.
Just as a person is obliged to do what is necessary to protect his home, the state of Israel is obliged to do
everything necessary to protect its citizens. is that I think the whole concept of occupation right now is the
main issue with when it comes to Lebanon, to Gaza, and to Syria.
And do you think that the United States is putting pressure on Israel on that front?
Oh, they're they're they're trying to.
Um again look because they ly to be honest when they say a sovereign state I don't see Israel
is sovereign the way it behaves without the help of the United States they're not capable of doing any of these activities these occupations
well no that's look Israel is still very much in a let's call it a paternalistic relationship with the United States the
United States is is incon dominates Israel.
But the Israelis have managed to turn the tables because even though Israel is
dependent on US economic and military support in order to maintain its
independence, it has bought and paid for u
the political system in the United States that they essentially effectively control the Congress.
and they have exercise significant power and influence over Trump. Trump is not an independent actor.
So, um that's where you got the disconnect that I, as I've said all along, Trump has the power. He has the power. He can do this.
He can shut down Israel, but he does not have the will.
Whether it's because he's politically aligned with them or he's afraid of their political backlash, I don't know
what that is. I can't give you the full explanation, but all I can tell you is that he could stop this in a heartbeat and he has refused to do so.
Yeah.
Here is Larry what JD Vance said about 300 billion
dollars of reconstruction fund to Iran because as you know they were talking about this Iranian media was talking about this but we haven't heard that
much from the Trump administration about this money that they want to they want to send to Iran for
reconstruction or they want to give it to Iran. Here is what he said. The Iranians are saying that they're going to have access to a $300 billion reconstruction fund. True or false?
Well, Ed, that that's the sort of thing they could have access to funded by the Gulf Coast coalition so long as they honor their end of the obligation. I
think that one of the things you're going to see, Ed, and and people have to be skeptical of this, is that the hardliners in the Iranian system will
overemphasize the benefits that Iran gets while underemphasizing all the things that they have to concede and all the things they have to provide in order
to get these benefits. So we absolutely are open to the Gulf Coast countries investing in the reconstruction of Iran,
but only if Iran ends their nuclear program, ends their enriched stockpile of material, and is really open to an
inspections and enforcement regime that gives the American people confidence they're never going to have a nuclear weapon. So, I I think I think the dance you're going to see, Ed, which is going
to be interesting, is the Iranian media, especially the hardline media, they're going to talk a lot about what they get without talking about what they give.
It's important for all of us to correct that record. Yeah. Here is what JD Vance said.
What do you make of it?
I said this is the the US is going to portray this as an agreement that ends
Iran's nuclear program and Iran has not agreed to do that. Iran has agreed that it's not going to build a nuclear weapon
or uh previously agreed that they would not build a nuclear weapon but there you know Pakistani sources are telling
Pepesco army that uh the the Iran's prepared to issue this ultimatum to
produce a nuclear weapon now just to force the issue with the United States.
So I, you know, I fully believe what the Pakistanis are saying that they believe it's true. Whether or not that's what
Iran believes, that's a whole another issue. But uh they're not going to give up enrichment of uranium. Uh they will
probably allow the what the the you know the downloading or the degrading of the existing stock of 60%
in order to to get a deal. But uh there's still Iran's going to insist that hey, we're we're a sovereign country. We're signitories to the
non-prololiferation treaty. Uh and we've uh we've been frankly uh misused and
abused by the IAEA. So, you know, they're going to they're not going to surrender their sovereignty and that's
where, you know, Vance has it wrong. So, but I keep returning to we don't know what the agreement is.
We know what Iran thinks the agreement is and we it appears that the we know that
the United States has a different view from what Iran agrees that the what the agreement says, but we haven't seen the US draft yet.
Until we see that, we're not really going to be in a position to know what the hell they'd be signing on Friday.
I think my understanding, Larry, is that if they give the money to Iran, it's not going to be from the United States. It's
going to give it through the GCC countries. And Donald Trump can come out and say, "I didn't give anything to Iran." And this GCC countries that he's
paying all of this, the fund for reconstruction, you know, the frozen assets are coming are going from UAE or
from Qatar to Iran. I have nothing to do with all of that.
Right? That could be the argument on his part.
Sure. Sure. But um there's still the these are assets frozen in US accounts and they still have to be translate transferred out of US accounts.
Uh and is Iran going to accept the payment in dollars or in Chinese yuan?
No. I wouldn't be surprised to see him say we we got to you make the payment in yuan because they're going to keep the money in Chinese banks so it can't be touched by western sanctions.
And the reason I say this because I don't know how come all of a sudden we see going to Iran two times and talking
with because all of it was all about Pakistan doing everything negotiating sending messages coming back and forth and you see two times they're going
while the United was attacking Iran they were in Iran right denied that they have announced the agreement government you know the
delegation was in Iran this is the question I think what they're doing there.
Well, uh, Iran has had a good relationship with Qatar.
It goes back what, seven years, eight years when the Saudis and Amiradis tried to isolate and embargo Qatar and the one
country that provided humanitarian assistance and support was Iran during that time. So um and part of
Iran's motivation is that the Qataris were willing to provide support and and and be a a midstation for you getting
aid and and and armaments and other material aid to Hamas.
And here is what JD Van said about GCC countries investing in Iran's economy.
46 minutesAnd I think our here is what he said.
Are open to the Gulf Coast countries investing in the reconstruction of Iran, but only if Iran ends their nuclear
program, ends their enriched stockpile of material and is really open to an inspections and enforcement regime that
gives the American people confidence they're never going to have a nuclear weapon. So I I think I think the dance you're going to see, Ed, which is Yeah.
So trying to talking about trying to go back to the JCPOA that they tore up. Exactly. Yeah.
Exactly. I I think that's the outcome because they kept this argument if you you recall they kept it's all about
Iranian nuclear pro program. They have never accepted Donald Trump at least and his administration that they wanted to
do regime change. They said it but they officially they didn't say it is a regime change. It is some sort of regime change. We're going to change the leadership. We're going to do this.
We're going to do that. Nothing that of that sort has happened. But in whenever the mainstream media was asking
them what is the offramp? The only thing they were telling us they said nuclear program of Iran they have to say they're
not going to achieve they're not going to produce nuclear weapons and Iranian nuclear program. It seems that the United States backed down on its position. You know, no enrichment gone.
You know, that 60% enriched uranium that's going to go to the United States. That's gone. It's going to stay in Iran.
If they decide to down blend that enrich 4000 kgs of enrich uranium, it's going to be in Iran, not outside of Iran.
Right?
So, they have the offer. They have created the offer for themselves.
You mean the US has created the offramp or the the United States because they said it's all about the Iranian nuclear program.
Here here is JD Vance talking about if the GCC countries want to
invest in Iranian economy they you know the main problem would be Iranian nuclear program. I think there is no
problem with that. Iran has they had it as you mentioned in JCPOA and nothing has changed since then.
But let let's be clear. The whole focus on the Iranian nuclear program is just an excuse.
This was this was not about Iran getting a nuke. That was the excuse, the justification that was used for starting
this war because Iran had been very explicit in his public comments that it was not interested in a nuke and the
only reason it went to the 60% level was to try to compel the west to come back to the negotiating table that uh
ultimately the west walked away from and Donald Trump tears up the or the agreement and France, Germany and the UK they don't do what they promised to do.
And so Iran after having made a number of concessions and allowing all these AIAN inspectors in gets no con gets no sanction relief.
So this is uh like I said this is just an excuse.
Uh and that's where I think you know I think Iran needs to do a better job of defining its interest and just asserting and say hey this is this is our
interest. this is what we're going to do and we're not going to be held hostage by the rest of the world.
They've got the backing now of Russia and China and they should play that to the hilt. Uh they've got uh their their economy, I would argue, is more open
now. They've got better economic options now than they did 3 four months ago by virtue of these relationships with
now Russia and China and the fact that they're they've got trade routes open in the east. They're not dependent upon selling things out the Persian Gulf.
I think the outcome of this war is that all these GCC countries really want to improve their relationship with Iran.
Well, yeah. I I mean they've it depends on the deal.
Iran has had Iran has had diplomatic relations with the Saudis since 2023.
So, it's been more than 3 years. that was restored. Uh, and that's real. Uh, they've they've had a longer relationship with Qatar.
Uh, and they've even sent a, you know, they've had the delegation exchange with the United Arab Emirates. So I think the
Emiratis are starting to, you know, see the writing on the wall that uh there
may be a new sheriff in town that Iran's position is going to grow stronger and that that of the United States is going
to grow weaker. So they're not going to they're not going to tie themselves necessarily to the United States.
Lori, do you think that Saudi Arabia and Turkey with the problems that
they're facing in Syria, are they going to help the case of Lebanon and Gaza or they're going to stay in the same position that they were before? How the
outcome of this war for Israel going to change their mind toward Israel?
Well, um, rhetorically it's changed, but I haven't actually seen, you know, policy,
particularly a policy change from, uh, Turkey.
Um, you know, here's Erdogan allowing Israel to threaten him and he allows and he permits the oil to continue to flow to Israel.
He just, you know, sending the sign that he's just he's he's Israel's [ __ ] you know, he he's not a big leader. He
likes to think he is, but he's still just doing the bidding of Israel. So, you know, we're not we're not going to
see a change in this until uh these other the Gulf country, the the countries with oil stop supplying oil to
Israel and they put the pressure and say, "Hey, this is this genocide is going to stop or you're not going to get
a drop of oil, period." They haven't done that yet. They may be wanting they may be heading in that
direction. You know Pakistan is still busy working uh up uh this Gulf let's call it a new sort of Gulf cooperation
council but it extends beyond there a regional military alliance with Egypt, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and Iran.
That could be formidable.
Shifting the gear a little bit to Ukraine. We had a huge attack on Kief. Mhm.
60 missiles together with drones attacking Kief and destroying. H how how do you see the way that Russia is
redefining or reorganizing itself in Ukraine? I don't think it's reorganizing itself. It's just it's expanding the offensive.
You know the part of part of the constraints in the past were um they wanted they they were not sufficiently
built up in terms of their reserves to risk actions that would engage uh the
NATO countries bring the NATO countries in. I think now now Iran is at a stage where they say, "Okay, we gota if we
have to fight NATO, we can we got enough got enough personnel. We got enough um artillery shells. We have enough ballistic missiles. We have enough
cruise missiles. Yeah, we're we're we're we're prepared. We can take on the West if necessary." So that's where where it is.
Yeah.
I don't know if you see any sort of escalation between Russia and Europe happening while having these sort of,
you know, new attacks. I would say new escalations in the war in Ukraine because Russia, it seems that they're getting serious and putting an end to
the war as soon as possible militarily on the battlefield. and it and the calculation the the reason that I said
the reassessing reorganizing because I see these attacks in Kiev they we haven't seen these sort of attacks before this is something new that Russia
is doing and it has to be some sort of new messages from Russia to the west not only the United States but to Europeans
and how Europeans going to react to that are they going to escalate are they going to you know
try to fire back at Russia or they're going to back down on the case of Ukraine because they see how Kief is getting involved. This is not about the
55 minuteseastern part of Ukraine. It goes to Kiev. It goes to Lav maybe to the western part of Ukraine.
Okay. And so what's the question?
The question is Europe is going to back down or they're prepared to destroy all of Ukraine. Kiev go to the western part of Ukraine.
Oh yeah. No. No. I don't. Well, some of Europe is going to back down and some of Europe is going to, you know, the UK the
UK is the biggest offender. They're going to they're going to press and press and press to expand the conflict and they may very well get hit. Uh I think Germany's having second thoughts.
France appears to be also equally involved with the UK. So, you know, the the European the the war is probably
definitely going to spill over and involve these European countries and they're going to be hurt. Um, and Russia is, I think, preparing for that contingency.
Let's see what would happen. Let's see on Friday. I think that the situation on Friday would decide about it's related
to the case of Ukraine in my opinion and it's going to if they could achieve something on Friday as we're talking about it and nobody knows what's going
on. It's all dependent on Israelis behavior, right? Well, we're going to So, we'll be meeting Friday around 10:30 uh East
Coast time, 11:30 uh Brazil time. Uh and uh in in Europe, uh it'll be close to 4
late in the afternoon. So, the the meeting in Geneva should have already taken place by the time we're meeting Friday morning. We'll know.
Did it did it come off or not? Did JD Vance show up and was there a signing ceremony and did they, you know, shake
hands or exchange pleasantries or did they basically tell each other to go screw off?
Yeah. Yeah. Thank you. Thank you so much, Larry. All right, my friend.
Yeah. Let's see. Let's see how this uh this bit of chaos erupts this week. Exactly. Exactly.
All right. We may talk to you before Friday. Exactly. Sure. I'm sure about that. All right. All right, my friend. Bye-bye.
See you. Bye-bye.

[admin]

Pepe Escobar: Trump CAVES to Iran Strike Threat, Israel FURIOUS – Is War OVER?
by Danny Haiphong
Streamed live 2 hours ago

Geopolitical analyst and independent journalist Pepe Escobar joins the show to discuss the announcement by Trump & Iran that a deal to end the war, and the Iranian strike threat which accelerated Trump's desperation to seal it.



Transcript

Welcome everyone. Welcome back to the show. It's your host Danny Hiong. As you can see, I am joined by Pepe Escobar,
independent journalist and geopolitical analyst. Uh Pepe, good to see you again. How are you?
Good to see you again. Uh Danny, congratulations on everything. Greetings to our audience. And I am in hell at the moment because I am in Matoy.
Yeah.
Well, uh, thank you for joining us from Hell, Pepe. We do appreciate your time.
Let's get started with the big news which, uh, comes I I'll just outline the scenario, uh, that occurred yesterday.
Uh, we had a flurry of developments. We had Israel striking Beirut, uh, bombing Lebanon, still bombing Lebanon to be
quite honest. But, uh, in this strike on Lebanon, Iran said that it was going to retaliate Trump. it appears uh was very keen on not letting this happen.
Essentially was uh panic negotiating with Iran. Gave a lot of newer concessions for example lifting the
blockade immediately. Um and now we have the memorandum of understanding that was signed uh later in the evening
yesterday. Now Pepe, I know you have a column coming out on this. Maybe you can help us understand why it was now that
this strike that Israel conducted, of course, Iran has already struck Israel uh over its attacks on Lebanon. And now
it seems like this particular threat led to a uh an actual agreement. Again, the memorandum of understanding, not a peace
deal, but maybe you can help us understand what happened and why it happened.
Right. Uh this column uh is probably coming out what Tuesday
um I tried to detail uh and with background as well and information that we had from
our Iranian and Pakistani sources for the past almost three weeks. Uh it's an
there's an important um contextualization for you Danny and for our audience.
what is now uh it's uh the Iranians are billing as the uh Islamabad understandings or memorandum
it it was called the Islamabad accord by the Pakistanis themselves and we broke
the story of the Islamabad accord Larry Johnson and I in a previous channel it
was called powers shift and after we had two breaking news back to back. It was
simply cancelled by a direct order uh by the US government to Google, shut them
3 minutesdown with no warning, nothing, nothing whatsoever. We had had two shows, one on
a Tuesday, one on a Friday. And on the over the weekend, our channel was uh shut down. Last week, we came back with
a new channel. It's called transition protocol. And on Friday last week, Larry
and I in our new still small channel we have to start all over again.
We broke the story that uh it was the MO MOU was practically a done deal. And why
could we break that? Because our sources are directly from the table. They are Pakistani mediators.
And that's the reason why Larry and I are engaged in in this project because we are probably
there are very very few or practically none analysts anywhere who have directly
from the table by the Pakistanis. And of course this information can be later confronted and presented to the Iranians
and they say yes no comments etc. and that's why we are involved. So we knew
that uh an Islam islamabad accord was practically a done deal bearing lastm
minute alterations by the American side which is exactly what happened this weekend.
So this weekend Arai uh very few people know that he was on a secret mission uh in Pakistan.
Arra spent the weekend in Islamabad discussing with the mediators and basically telling once again the
Trump administration, look, we already we have already given you uh two two
very important demands uh two weeks ago at least. Uh, number one, we're not
going to discuss the Iranian nuclear dosier before any formal ending of the war, not
only the war against us, but the war of Israel against uh Lebanon.
And number two, if you insist on crossing thresholds and if you insist on imposing other red
lines on us, we're going to attack Israel directly.
and they were locked and loaded to attack Israel this weekend from Saturday to Sunday. They were about to do it. So
this was uh the straw that broke the cage match emperor of barbarious camels back.
he finally understood that the Iranians were very very very serious and they wouldn't wait for anything and they
would go for broke against Israel. So this was the main reason why we had
uh well they say there is an electronic signing. The the Iranians did not confirmed that there was an electronic
signing by Galibah especially the Americans are saying that Trump and Vance already signed it electronically.
The Iranians so far they left it hanging in the air. Basically they were saying h a very important statement by the
supreme national security council which I include in my column. They say that
they will uh sign only after the definitive order by leader Moshaba Kame.
So we may assume that this still this is still in the air right and it would happen let's say within the next 48
hours. So between today and maybe to tomorrow night, right? And of course this all relates to
what's going to be announced officially on the 19th, Friday in Geneva. So a lot
of stuff can happen from now to the 19th especially after uh especially uh
another uh derailment attempt by the desk in West Asia. And once again, the
Iranians told the Americans, "Look, uh, if you sign and if we sign the MOU with
us, we will deal with Israelis by ourselves." And the Americans more or less are
admitting that once theou is signed, Israel is on its own. If they want to
derail it, Iran is going to respond them. And the Americans don't do anything to prevent it. So that changes the equation completely.
But then this is all very much in the air, right? It's uh uh we are still in a
uh I said he said uh phase from now to to the next three four days. It's it's
very very tricky. Once we have this formal announcement on Friday, that changes the equation because then we're
going to have the full terms of the MOU and the Iranians are promising within the next to reveal all the all
the points because so far this is also important. Arashi has been taking
Himalayan amounts of flak in Iran because a lot of people are accusing him of of selling out. Of course, they still
don't know the full terms and the terms changed drastically this weekend. As you mentioned in the beginning, Trump made
extra concessions, but these were these are not extra concessions. This is something that he had agreed previously, but then he started to once again, okay,
extra demands and change the terms that were agreed over two weeks ago. So, it's back to to where we were in the
beginning when the Islamabad Accord as it was uh described was on the verge of
being signed. And we also had a confirmation that I discussed this with
Larry as well. Trump had six opportunities to sign this deal within
the ne the the last two to three weeks and at the last minute he came up with with something different. The whole
thing was already written just needed to be signed six times and this weekend probably we had the seventh and he
couldn't escape it anymore because Iranians said look that's it this is our deadline and uh among the deadline the Iranians
were saying look u the money you have to disperse the money that you owe was until the end of this month if you don't
you're going to be in trouble so that explains among other things why there was once again that famous Emirati
plane landing in Thran with lots of cash inside which was part of the um UAE
payment for Iran to please don't bomb us and once again the Pakistanis we we know this information we we got this information from the table the Pakistani
told us look we brokered this UAE flight to Thran to pay $2 billion in cash.
So the the thing was advancing and this weekend we had everything in place
for the signing of theou and at the last minute Trump tried to change it probably for the last time because now it's
theoretically a done deal but we still have all these days until Friday for the final confirmation right so it's a im
immensely fluid situation move every hour there's a big develop velment. But
from an Iranian point of view, if we look at the big picture, it's it's an stunning achievement. They
got almost everything that they wanted, at least in paper or electronically signed. Now, we don't know what's going
to happen next, but the but the the 14 points that they were, you know, pressing for two to three weeks, now they got practically everything.
Yeah. Uh and we saw Pepe and and this is I think going to be a big problem. I
mean, Israel is uh feigning this absolute rage, right? You have Smootri, you have Netanyahu, they're all saying
that Lebanon is not part of this deal and that they do not take orders from the United States. I mean, it's it's a huge performance right now. But
immediately after these strikes, Trump did something that he doesn't often do, which is say anything against what Israel does. But he said that those
attacks that happened, which led to this mad dash to get to this deal, u should not have happened. That these attacks
should not have happened. and that is that he said all sides need to stand down but he said separately in a phone call that the IDF should not be in
Lebanon at all and uh now we are hearing that JD Vance is saying the opposite of this there's a lot of uh games it seems
like and now JD Vance is saying well Israeli troops Lebanon it's not part of the deal this is uh this seems like a big mess
but I think what you just said there in terms of Iran really uh facilitating
even getting to this point is is really the story here that it was Iran saying, "Well, we're pointing our missiles at Israel. We're going to launch them uh
soon." Seemed to have generated a lot of activity right after that. But your thoughts?
Absolutely. And they stood firm all the way. They did not abdicate from of the
14 points. Maybe they relented a little bit on one or two. Uh but the most important the sequence of events the
sequencing was established by the Iranians. First you end of wars.
Then we start look talking about straight of hormuz. Okay. We are willing to to have the straight of our moves uh
totally free of any tolls or uh uh administration fees or whatever but for
30 days and then after that when we start phase two which which is to discuss the elements of a deal we can
impose everything that we want because we're already talking about your money about that.
And of course number three is um Lebanon which which is was the most important thing uh related to number one. Lebanon
is part of the whole MOU and the deal if the deal will be signed in the future.
Period. And that's exactly where Israel comes in because they are bomb they are bombing one of the key elements of the
MOU. Lebanon is a key element of the MOU and Iranas were fighting for Lebanon nonstop.
So this is the I would say margin that the death cult has for the moment. They will continue to punish Liban to attack Limb, harass Li, bomb Lebanon whatever.
And the Iranians are already already said to the Americans, "Look, it's part of the deal. As long as you don't do
anything about it. As long as you don't help Israel, okay, we will deal with Israel by ourselves, which is probably
what's going to happen, I would say, in the next few days or or weeks. If Israel doesn't stop, Iran will deal with them
directly, which was exactly what they were about to do this weekend.
And that's what's changed in the equations. So Tel Aviv, they have every reason to be terrified.
They are on their own essentially.
Pepe help clarify the straight of hormuz situation then when it comes to this uh memorandum of understanding because uh
on the one hand you know there's all this talk about okay the straight of hormuz is completely open for uh 30 days
and then under Iranian arrangements and then there's others uh who are saying like the US side well no it's just completely open and uh they don't
mention with no tolls but uh there seems to be an agreement that Iran will be charging these service fees and that
will be overlooked. But uh I guess I'm curious on what the actual situation is and um you know whether you believe Iran
will continue to exercise leverage over the trade of formoose should this agreement not uh be met up to this to
standards by the United States if the US does not meet up to the uh agreements or the conditions in it. Whatever happens
uh Denny and whatever is the American attitude, the legal uh status of the straight of Hormuz will be something completely
different uh compared to um uh before the war. They will uh organize
a system to u apply. they will probably illistically call them uh administrative
tax fees or whatever environmental fees uh uh security for freedom of navigation
etc. which they are already once again discussing all that with the Omanis. So this is inevitable
for the first 30 days and that of course uh assuming the Americas are going to uh
fulfill their end of the bargain which is to end their Trump ordered blockade.
The strait will be completely there will be no toes no fees etc for one month.
when they start the next phase which is to discuss the actual possible deal that's another story and then Iran and
it and this is part of theou uh let me see if I can find
let me see if I can find it here where they talk direct about the straight of hormus
security no I cannot find it at the moment But I remember very well that among the 14
points uh the straight of Hormuz will already be part of the
a provisional settlement already in the 60 days following the the first 30 days.
Ah yes you you got the whole thing. Fant within 30 days. Exact. Exactly. This is
the language under Iranian arrangements translation. Yes, they will have their uh administrative fees.
Absolutely. Absolutely. And of course this was agreed between both parties.
The Americans essentially agreed. They know that they cannot force Iran not to have control over the straight of
period. This is their great strategic victory.
Yeah. Of of the whole war. They will never abandon it. Never. Even under a total
19 minutesfire, maximum pressure, whatever, all that crap. Yeah. The thing is, the US agreement capable?
I posed this question in the column. Uh Danny, will the US for the first time in
in memory be agreement capable? None of us believe in that. Of course,
right. No. No. And uh now the question is uh uh Pepe you know you've called I
know that um in your upcoming column you are calling this a huge multipolar breakthrough. You talked about the role of Pakistan. It was actually the
Pakistani prime minister who uh first announced that this deal was done on X.
Uh now talk talk about this because uh you know there was a lot of moving pieces here and uh you know Iran and the
United States were certainly dealing with a multitude of mediators. We know the Gulf countries were very concerned
about what would happen if hostilities were to restart. Uh so talk about this as what you have termed like a
multipolar breakthrough. Absolutely. And this is what Larry and I were particularly interested from the
beginning that we would have access to what was being discussed at the table by
the Pakistani mediators unfiltered. So we were getting practically one briefing a day for the past few days. This is huge, enormous.
uh and of course they were not only mediating between uh Washington and
Thran directly. It was the only uh state that was conducting the
mediation at the highest level. They were getting help from a lot of players.
uh the most important one which is acknowledged a hu at this statement by the national uh the supreme national
security council of Iran Qatar they mentioned by name only two states Pakistan the main mediators and Qatar
and they expressed their appreciation to both but in the background we also
had Turkey Saudi especially Saudi Arabia and Egypt so everybody body was involved
and they were also involved into helping the Pakistanis to explain to the UAE
essentially to explain to MBZ look you bet on the wrong horse. You better try to find a uh an understanding with Iran
or you're going to be in deep deep trouble. And apparently MBZ got the message and that explains the famous
Emirati flight to Thran with two billion dollars. So Pakistan was coordinating all that which in itself is immensely
impressive. Uh a lot of people know that I have deep reservations concerning the Pakistani government. A lot of people
know that I was a huge supporter of Imrram Khan. But at the same time we as independent analysts we have to practice
real politic and of course uh recognize when there is a state that is doing an
outstanding mediation work which was the case with Pakistan so far and they uh
they were in a unique position because very close relations with Thran for
instance I I think I mentioned this in uh with you or any in other podcasts as well. When there was a key visit to talk
to Moshaba Kame face to face in Iran, the Iranian minister of interior, he
took a delegation of Pakistani Shiite scholars to meet with Moshtava and to
express uh basically demonstrate their respect and express their gratitude, talk about the assassination of his dad,
etc. The Iranians immensely appreciated that this is this is cultural and religious respect. Very very important.
So the Pakistanis they did all the right moves to okay uh we need a trust uh we
need you to trust us because we are talking directly to Trump. A simoneir picks up the telephone calls Trump
answers immediately. No, he doesn't do this with practically anybody apart from maybe Putin and she that's it. So the
Pakistanis played their hand very very well and of course they had excellent relations with all the Gulf Petra
monarchies and backtracking even more I'm sure many of you our audience will
24 minutesremember that the first meeting of Muslim nations even before the first
Islamabad meeting when Vance went to Islamabad and Galibah as well there were
four uh Sunni Muslim nations in this meeting. Pakistan the host, Saudi
Arabia, Turkey and Egypt. So these were the four uh let's say the four early
stage Sunnis that started the whole okay let's try to find something. So they debated, debated, debated. Not much
happened. And the next day the Pakistani foreign ministers I had to go to Beijing to meet Wii and explain to one, okay,
what did we? And one said, okay, what happened in Islamabad? He said, ah, not much. I said, well, you have to do better. But at the same time, the
Chinese were imprinting their full support to the Pakistani mediation. And that's one of
the key aspects of this whole kabuki. Let's once again let's put it this way. Very very complicated.
And of course the Chinese are masters at disguising their influence.
So what what did we have in practice in terms of trying to convince the Americans that this was the only off ramp in town for Trump?
It was this extremely discreet but very effective China Iran Pakistan alliance
and why China well all of you know very very well new silk roads which is one of
the key partners of the new silk roads all across Eurasia Iran which is the other one Pakistan China Pakistan
economic corridor from um h sorry singing jang from Qashqar crossing
Pakistan going all the way to Guada in the Arabian Sea.
o you put these two together once again China behind both uh who suggested to
the Pakistanis look you should open overland corridors with Iran to help them uh redirect their trade after this
stupid American blockade. So Pakistan opens six overland border crossings with Iran and a lot of
Iranian trade goes through Pakistan and vice versa. Why? Because the shortest way between Iran and China is not
through Central Asia, it's through their mutual neighbor Pakistan. So all all that is interconnected. The fascinating
aspect is if we're talking about the bigger picture of Eurasia integration, this is the perfect microcosm,
the integration between West Asia and South Asia to China. And this was the
geoeconomic trade uh mirror image of the geopolitical alliance between China, Pakistan and
Iran. So all that is totally interconnected. I wonder if anybody in the Trump administration know about
these details. Uh Danny, I wouldn't bet on it really. I I discussed this with Larry and with some other of of our
friends as they have no they don't even know where these places are. Can you imagine that?
Can you imagine that they are all interconnected?
So, uh, the Pakistanis managed to pull that off because they had this Chinese
solid backing all the way. And of course, once again, because they could
uh talk directly to the to Trump and to the highest levels of the Trump administration. That's why it worked.
And of course, uh, sending messages to Trump that they immediately got from the Iranians. For
28 minutesinstance, this weekend, the Pakistanis were telling Trump what Arashi told them in Islamabad
directly in a matter of minutes, you know, this was on Trump's table.
So, that helped. And of course, this uh I would say this amount of serious goodwill by all the Gulf Petro
monarchies which were terrified that the war would never end. All of them for different reasons. So they all told
Pakistan look we'll help you any anything you want we'll help you money okay we give them money whatever but
please try to convince the uh Trump not to restart the war so we put this all together that's why the Pakistanis in
the end they delivered so they have a reason to be proud in fact
yeah well uh did you hear about the Qatar I mean there was there was so much
I think desperation on all sides outside of Iran. Basically every side of this war, anyone who had been touched by this
war in the region um other than Iran and of course Israel which um is the the the great destroyer or as our friend Moham
destroy the great Satan. Um but uh there was a secret deal leaked supposedly Qatar was
offering something really um really interesting where it was saying that it would in the middle of this war that it
would uh halt liqufied natural gas production so Iran wouldn't target the uh gas the huge gas complex that eventually did actually uh get targeted.
Um and so and it seems like Qatar was also a big player in the memorandum of understanding talks that they might have
even I think they were in Iran at the time when Iran was preparing to strike Israel yesterday right before the
memorandum of understanding was uh uh uh agreed upon. So yeah there seems to be a
whole lot of interest for there to be a sessation of hostilities and eventually a complete end to the war. But will
Israel allow this Pepe? Because uh it seems like the United States for as much as Donald Trump said Netanyahu has no
effing judgment, all of this kind of bravado, seems like Israel just keeps going. Anyway, and I'm just curious if
you believe that in the coming days as Friday approaches, I've been saying this to people. I'm like, this is embarrassing. If Friday approaches and
Israel is continuing to uh essentially burn key pieces of thisou
uh what happens then because it's really embarrassing for the US to look like uh
a country that really depends so heavily on it militarily uh uh can this death cult can continue on without any um repercussions.
31 minutesWell, there is there is an email circulating uh among several of us. I cannot say uh who the source is, but it's uh all people that we know, right?
And none of us uh believe that uh Israel will respect the terms of theou.
So the problem is how is Iran going to react? They already said okay we'll deal with them directly but will the US
really adopt a handsoff approach if that hap if that happens not when that happens uh
extra bombings of dah for instance the the Israelis are already saying on the record that they will continue to bomb
dah and they will continue to occupy uh the villages in southern lim where they already are
and once again that will be an extra humili iliation for the empire of plunder and piracy. By the way,
if the minions in West Asia continue not to respect aou signed by
his master's voice and that's where we are at the moment.
So Trump, this proves once again that Trump is so desperate for his deal
that he's even willing to face extra humiliation.
But it's it's crazy uh Nema because we are dealing with you Nemo. Sorry.
I'm so I'm so sorry. You should see the state of my brain nowadays. No, to totally I'm really really sorry.
Um, we are dealing with a psychopathic sociopathic uh entity with no limits
literally and no limits to their uh demented vision of of power and
influence and everybody is inferior to them. their lousy book, their lousy prophet, you name it. It's it's
terrible. There's no way to teach these people a lesson unless you go for I won't pronounce the magic words
something really really radical and everybody that knows that has been there that has talked to them like our
friend Alistister Krook for instance they knew that it's impossible it's even impossible to start a dialogue with these people.
Yeah. Yes. Yeah. And uh Pepe, you know, there were some uh Iranian analysts like uh I believe his name is Fazadi who was
saying that he's very good. Fad is very serious.
Yes. I he was saying that part of the one of the uh the big concerns right now and I'm curious on how valid you feel
these concerns are is that uh you mentioned earlier that there were uh you know Iranians who are not happy with uh uh the agree coming to an agreement with
the United States at this stage um that there are many Iranians who are feeling that way. uh he said that even floating
uh the idea that the straight of hormuz uh would be open on the uh by the request of the United States is going
too far and that uh the United States has not provided sufficient security guarantees up until this point. Uh what
do you make of this and do you find that the US could you said we're going to find out if the US is agreement and capable uh security guarantees for uh
the empire of chaos? It's quite an ask given uh the way that it behaves around the world and we've seen it with Iran in
particular but so many other cases. So what do you make of this uh there I I feel like this is a very complex issue
and it has been since the very beginning this idea of Iran even taking part in negotiations at this stage with the US.
But what what do you what what are your thoughts on this?
uh uh which is the official position of uh
in fact uh something very important happened uh this pan within the past two weeks
uh basically he told the supreme national security council uh there if I'm not mistaken there are 13 members
of the supreme national security council 11 of them are deeply
let's say to put it diplomatically averse to any sort of uh understanding with the non-aggreement capable empire
of chaos and they are two let's put it this way reformists including the president Bzashkin
36 minutesbut Mavakar basically told the SN the supreme national security council Okay, look, I delegate the decision to you and
it has to be by a sizable majority. If you think that the terms of the MIU
are exactly what you have been um uh proposing and discussing so far okay with your decision.
This this is what we got from the best positioned people in Thran. For
instance, um when uh we first broke Larry and I the story that um Iran, if
the Americans were crossing every threshold, Iran might consider the
possibility of a North Korea style deterrence uh demonstration, which would
be to detonate a nuclear device on Iranian soil to prove once and for all
that. Okay, we have all the deterrence that we need. We got this information
based on what poses himself told uh Shebas Sharif on a phone call.
The Americans were pissed when this information was leaked because this influenced everything that happened afterwards.
and a copy of my column landed on the desk of one of the the guys part of the
very tight inner circle of uh leader Moshaba Kame via our friends uh at the
cradle in Beirut and we got an answer after a few days and his uh answer I'm
quoting him directly from Farsy to English I won't comment on this matter It's very important. He did not deny it.
This was nonresponse response, but it was no denial whatsoever. Of course, if he had deny it, he'll be saying that the
president of Iran is a liar because this is exactly what Pashkin told Shebas Sharif. And then Sharif
instructed everybody. Look, Trump has to know about this. This is an extra element. and they told us they told us
um in the first place we the Pakistani mediators. So this proves several things the degree of trust between the Iranians
and the Pakistanis uh the amount of sensitive information that they were passing u
to the Pakistanis and the fact that they knew that this information will be instantly related to the Americas and all the consequences in between and afterwards.
So uh all that once again illustrates and obviously behind that the Chinese
39 minutesagreeing with everything. So it's it's an extra illustration of how deep and complex this interaction was. But can we
uh assume that the Americans were understanding the breath, the scope
and the depth of uh this interaction and how they had virtually no margin of
maneuver except start dreaming of a land invasion, grab the island of Car and other crap like that. No, I'm not I'm not so sure they understood the game.
So I think they only understood again yesterday Danny when the Iranians said via the Pakistanis once again okay we're going
to bomb Israel to death then they understood yeah I I I mean in those events that
transpired we know that Iran can fire very quickly can respond very quickly saw
the delay and the various mixed me we saw the United States get out in front. It wasn't Iran getting out in front.
Then Israeli media tried to say that no, no, no, no, Iran is not going to be negotiated away from attacking us.
And then we saw ultimately what happened which was the agreement was uh was finalized or at least theou was
finalized and that is supposed to pepe include Lebanon in all fronts. Now there have been some people who are very
concerned of course about not just Lebanon but also Gaza and the rest of the fronts in which Israel is engaged in. Theou does say uh and all fronts.
I'm guessing that would include Iraq and perhaps even Gaza. But what do you but what do you make of this? Because it's a
it's definitely a point that I see heavily debated now on social media. Um there are some who are angry with Iran for coming to thisou
41 minutesuh without specifying more so that there needs to be a cessation everywhere and one that's enforced. But I'm curious on your thoughts on this.
This is uh I would say one of the key points of uh public opinion in Iran blaming Arashi and branding Arai as a traitor.
Arachi would never never go against what is what was decided by uh Moshava Kam
and the supreme uh council. Never. He doesn't have that kind of leeway. His
leeway is yes, you have the leeway to debate and to discuss as our number one.
And in fact, he was not even the number one um negotiator. The number one negotiator was Galibah,
but we had a rearrangement this past few weeks where Galibah uh he decided to uh be in the background
and he has a new post as as we commented before as well. He's in charge of not by accident strategic relations with China.
So, so you see how important Galibah is because the most important relationship for Iran is China. So, you need your top
guy to be in charge of that and Arai and Galibafi is not a diplomat by
profession. Arashi is. So the Iranians have these roles very well uh coordinated. So we get our top diplomat
to discuss a a diplomatic uh solution and we have our top parliamentarian and
former IRGC commander by the way Galibbah in charge of our most important strategic relationship with China.
Everything makes perfect but everything with the persons is logical. It's the absolute opposite of the west. You know there's nothing irrational about it. on
the contrary, but I was very struck by the degree of vitrial and uh and people
were really really pissed at our action because they still didn't know the exact terms of the 14 points and what was
agreed by the Americans. That's why Arashi kept saying even before this weekend, I think the last time he got
into detail about that was on from uh Friday to Saturday say look next week you're going to have all the detailed
points that will be part of theou and now that we have extra uh leaks on
Iranian media of the actual terms of theou Iran didn't concede practically anything.
So we will still need formal confirmation between today and tomorrow max of the you know the the full uh
terms the the 14 it's a short document apparently it's less than two pages the whole thing it's just literally a
memorandum of it's not a treaty it's not a deal no it's a memorandum of understanding okay we're going to start discussing following these points
and then it can go sideways you know you name But at least you have the main points itself. Oh, sorry. Continue.
No, no, go ahead. But but it's interesting uh Danny the degree of debate in Iranian public society is
quite something. You don't have this kind of debate in you in very very few western democracies you have this kind
of public debate over such a sensitive issue.
Hezbollah itself has come out and congratulated Iran and has thanked Iran for uh you know including and of course
fighting on the side of the resistance and this answers the question from someone a longtime viewer actually. Why didn't Iran retaliate against Israeli
bombing of Beirut last night? I I'll question you just I can see this question which is a very good question
because Trump at the last minute he he backed off. They were ready. They were they were the literally the famous uh um
fingers on the trigger that we keep hearing from some IRC commanders. You were on the trigger yesterday.
And this and as crazy as it seems, it was this
instance that actually saved theou because the Iranians made the point to
Trump, look, we are ready to bomb Israel now. That's it. And Trump at the last minute, okay, okay, okay, I'll sign it.
That's what that's what happened yesterday. By the way, uh his birthday, you know.
Yeah. That I mean that was another thing that I think maybe uh rubbed some people the wrong way is that it was his birthday and there were there were
rumblings that he really wanted to get it done for his birthday. It was like big birthday gift to him. It was going to be his and the greatest thing.
Yeah. Celebrating is Yeah. All of this.
But his birthday gift was offered by team Galibaf Arai. Yeah, that's the juiciest part of it all.
Yeah. Well, it's certainly quite something and I hope people can acknowledge this that um this 14point plan was none of those points you could
say uh have ever been produced by the United States. They're not ones that the US came to the table with at any point
since April and said this is what we want. Actually, all we've seen from the Trump administration is them uh
reinterpreting either the points or completely making up things alto together.
But the points all all together are basically Iran's points. And I guess that's where people are going to have to decide whether it's good enough or not.
I I think the big question is is how does such a thing get implemented uh under uh the just even Donald Trump as
president, his entire administration um the longstanding goal of ensuring Iran doesn't get stronger. I mean,
that's failed because of war. But, um, this must be a tough pill to swallow.
It's going to be a very interesting next several weeks and into this actual negotiations period if we if we get to it.
It's true, uh, Denny, because anybody in the US with their critical faculties
still relatively intact can see that this is a massive strategic
defeat. any way you look at it, how to swallow this pill.
Of course, the uh inside the US there's going to the backlash is going to be gigantic and they're going to go after
Trump after the Trump administration, you name it. It's going to be very very very tough.
And of course, when people start realizing the geopolitical consequences of what is
just unfolding in front of us, there are so many. The most obvious is that's the end of American supremacy in West Asia.
Period. It's not coming back.
and involves everything from never rebuilding those destroyed bases to basically a retreat and there's going to
be a new uh protection umbrella in West Asia and probably the main actor is going to be Pakistan nuclear power supported by China.
Maybe there's going to be some Russian participation later on. For the moment, the Russians are being very very quiet because of course they have they have
their war to deal with and now the whole ch the whole thing regarding the smo is
changing in front of us because of public pressure as Russians are fed up with the drone war the terrorist drone
war. So Putin and the Kremlin and the minister of defense they will have to adjust their tactics. But the Russians were behind all all the time just
looking and say, "Ho ho, we got a fabulous opening in West Asia." So, can you imagine having to deal with
all that uh especially along uh in the beltway and with the industrial military
complex? It's a major trauma and they inflict it on themselves. That's the craziest thing ever.
We're not talking about Brazilinsk's uh you you remember that blah blah Brazinski blah blah blah blah we need to
be ready against a peer competitor in region. No, this is the real And it didn't come from the peer
competitors. It came from a middle power under 47 years of sanctions able to inflict a strategic defeat on the greatest armada in the history of Star
Wars. How can you sell this uh inside the US? It's impossible. Absolutely impossible.
No, no. I I mean, it might be a huge gift, speaking of birthdays to Donald Trump, to get that Armada out and try to
erase, you know, like Men in Black, you know, just press that button. Everyone's memory of the of what just happened is gone because honestly, uh, it yeah, it
truly is, uh, a staggering failure on the part of the US. Some would argue that no, it's it's not because the US
wants to control the oil markets, but this doesn't feel like control of any oil markets right now. Uh essentially
what the United States is trying to agree to uh at least in rhetoric is uh they would like the straight of Hormuz
which was open before the war to reopen and they're okay with Iranian regulation of the straight of Hormuz as long as
they call it service fees or environmental protection fees you know as long as it's not called the toll fine but it seems like that and you know and
then to normalize to the rest of the world okay this is just how it is I think that's a much easier thing than to get the Empire of Chaos to uh agree. But
that seems to be where where things are at. And that's a that's a massive geopolitical
economic global geoeconomic shift that uh is feeling more and more permanent the the more we go down this road of talks between the two, US, Iran, etc.
And it is permanent uh Danny because now the big big power in West Asia is Iran
now and one of the big independent powers in the world as well on a second tier compared to the US, Russia and
China of course but a big big and rising regional power and respected all over
the world especially respected among the global south full member of bricks, full member of the Shanghai cooperation
organization with a partnership with the Eurasia Economic Union. Iran is at the center of the whole process of Eurasia
integration, strategic relationships with both Russia and China. Very very few nations are at
this level. Very few. So it's no wonder this um discussion already starting that Iran is the fourth big power.
Not at the same level, but yes, it's getting there. It's getting there. Abs. Absolutely. And in Eurasia, no question.
Iran is now uh and the way it's perceived all across the global south. Wow.
Iran is perceived as an global south example of resilience
uh strategic uh sovereignty, independence and especially once again something that
is very close to Putin NC exercising their sovereignty and resisting everything that the empire threw against them. Wow.
This is how uh important geopolitical u uh shifts in history. This is how how it
works. It's usually after a war and we are right in the middle of it. And there is really a winner in this war.
Maybe not so clearcut, but the strategic winner of this war is without a shadow of a doubt Iran.
Yeah. Yeah. I mean to expect Iran not to have taken any losses confronting two nuclear powers. I mean
if we we don't have to call Israel a power per se but given that Israel does have so much influence in the United States and its own body politic you
could call Israel a nuclear power but it has nuclear weapons. So Israel and the US uh to be able to yeah you take losses
but uh to be able to come out in a better position. Yeah, I would say that is the definition of victory in in a
war, especially a war of this of this nature. Um, which is still not it's still not symmetrical. It's not uh you
don't have it's not like it was where we're we're we're past the days of World War I, World War II, empires fighting each other. No, there's just one empire
now. That's there's just one really. Um, and that's uh so it's a huge reality. So Pepe, you know, in the last uh five
minutes or so that we have here, maybe you can help us understand what kind of reverberations
this uh phase of the war now uh will have on the rest of the world, maybe even some of the other fronts. Uh uh you
just said that Russians are sick of the drone terror of Ukrainians. That war seems to be in that phase. is the
battlefield feels uh almost I won't say static because I think the Russians are uh Russia is doing quite well on the
battlefield for the kind of war they're fighting but that uh it does appear that the US is trying to pivot back to a more
um uh maybe preferable kind of warfare which is by proxy
you know more yeah hybrid exactly that's the word I was looking for so your thoughts yes And um many of us are worried that
they will refocus once again in another adventure in Latin America. And the number one candidate is Cuba.
So and once again, Western Hemisphere, it's in the national security doctrine, our backyard.
Don't roll doctrine 2.0. That's it. And obviously uh they have to forget the humiliation in West Asia.
So the first candidates will be in Latin America unfortunately not to mention destabilization influencing they're
going to influence heavily in the elections in Brazil later this year.
They're going to put a lot of effort uh to get the Bosonaro family back in power. So this is what's going to happen unfor unfortunately.
And in terms of Eurasia, what is absolutely fascinating is something that many of us have been working on for decades. In fact, they
are being progressively, I would not say slowly, but certainly surely being expelled from Eurasia.
57 minutesThat's it. Eurasia integration is right in front of us in detail.
And another thing that we should be very should be paying very attention. It's a lot of attention. It's only three months from now. The bricks summit in uh India.
All right.
Will the bricks understand what is just taking place in front of all all of them and all of us? Right.
And it's the worst possible place to have a summit this year, but that's it.
You have to deal with it. So, we're going to have to rely once again on Lavrov and Wangi driving. Yeah, this
gigantic ship, the bricks ship. So, okay. Well, we're getting stronger by the day. Look what happened. One of our
full members basically they won against the empire.
instead of in one of our endless meetings with lots of suits or no no in the battlefield they went there and they and they got it.
So, so the lessons in uh in Delhi in three months from now this is going to be quite something.
It will give us a little bit of hope, right? Uh Danny.
Oh yeah. Oh no. I I definitely I I think you know some I think some could interpret these emerging problems within
bricks uh for example having of course having the great uh in Delhi in India uh
the great uh uh maybe I I mean call it betrayal but maybe the reveal of the you
know the Indian uh political elite constantly uh hedging bets and hedging
unfortunately maybe far too hard on the USIsraeli side. But uh then you have the UAE of course if Saudi still on the
fence but the UAE is a full member and the UAE was just a big party to this war. But you can see these divisions uh that are emerging. We could see them as
big problems. But also uh perhaps sometimes reality can actually help build something better if those
conflicts end up coming to some kind of resolution. Maybe not at a brick summit but outside of it. I mean, Iran is going
to be coming into a brick summit like this coming one as far stronger than before and that that is, I think, a plus
for any kind of multi-polar uh development project, including bricks. So, we'll we'll have to see how it goes.
But, um I think it's just very interesting that we are able to even talk about things like this. It wasn't
too long ago where when the US waged war, we would simply be talking about the massive casualties, the instability,
and all of that, which it sees. Now, we're talking about, I think, a far more level kind of uh uh field, and that's
that's different. That's that's a different um conversation. Any any closing thoughts before I hit endstream here, Pep?
Reminds me of something to illustrate what you just said. uh giving us a little bit of extra hope.
Uh the UAE, as we all know, for all practical purposes, they were at war against Iran. And now the Iranians have
evidence that the UAE was part of the USIsraeli uh war from the beginning.
Well, so uh a few weeks ago, I was talking to one of our connections to the Pakistani
mediators. I said, "Can you ask them what are they doing to with the UAE? Do they have a plan for the UAE?" And the
the guys at the table said, "Look, we are bringing the UAE to reason. It's going to take a while. Maybe it's going
to be a matter of u two or three months and it's already happening." The
Pakistanis explained to the UAE, look your position should be similar to Saudi
Arabia, Qatar, Egypt, Turkey. You are on, you know, the wrong side of history.
You still have time. With a few gestures, maybe the Iranians will decide to talk to you again. For the moment,
they are on the point of raising Abu Dhabi and Dubai to the ground. So, it's up to you. So it's amazing. In fact, it took a few weeks.
That's and nobody would bet on it that the UAE would finally try. Okay, let's try to find some understanding because
now they see who is the most powerful uh conglomerate in West Asia. It's not the Americans anymore. So they going to have
to deal with Iran, their neighbors. On top of it, they confiscated a lot of Iranian money which they're going to
have to give back. Dubai was always uh um an extension of Iran in terms of business.
So uh so this gives us and and so once again this is an internal bricks matter as well.
Obviously the Chinese and the uh the Russians hate the fact that two bricks members are at war against each other.
Yeah. So obviously uh they they helped the Pakistanis to instill some sense um into MBZ.
This this a few a few weeks ago if you talk about that you're a lunatic. No it's actually happened. Yeah.
So maybe uh something like this can be uh organized by Russia China visav India. Denny we should never Okay. We
should we should hope because it's for the good of bricks. In fact, they need to explain the facts of life to the Indian elites. They still don't get it.
Yeah. Well, uh Pepe, it was great uh having you on the program. We will uh head out together. I'm going to make
sure now uh that all Yes. Your now your Telegram and your X accounts are in the video description. So people should
check those out because your column should be coming out soon. Not only on this matter and uh you also post so many
other transition protocol. Let me get our new uh channel Larry and I.
Yes, transition protocol. We are starting from scratch and of course we're gonna need the help of all of you. All our
friends know about it as well. And we have something that very few people if uh if they have we have information
straight from the negotiating table and this means other negotiating tables because we confront what we get with the
Iranians and also of course with as much as we can with the Chinese.
We all know how uh extremely sophisticated and discreet they are. But with nuggets here and there, we can always get an answer.
Yeah. Well, uh, that is now also in the video description below. So, do subscribe. I'm a subscriber, so you all subscribe too. Um, be okay. So, other
than that, hit the like button because that will get more people watching. And then, of course, there are all the places to support this show in the video description below after you check out Pepe's work. Until next time, everyone.
I'll see you tomorrow. I will announce what's going on then. Take care. Bye-bye. Cheers. Thank you.

[admin]

There Is No 'Peace Deal' Between Iran and the Trump Regime
Reason2Resist with Dimitri Lascaris
Jun 15, 2026

On Sunday June 14, after Israel crossed Iran's red lines by bombing Beirut again, the Islamic Republic prepared a massive missile assault on Israel.

At that point, Trump appears to have panicked and to have offered to Iran major concessions with the aim of avoiding another devastating strike on Washington's proxy.

Is the resulting deal in the best interests of Iran? Will it lead to a just and lasting peace in West Asia?

Dimitri Lascaris takes a closer look at the reported terms of the agreement between the Islamic Republic and the Trump regime.



Transcript

Good morning friends. This is Demetri Lceris coming to you for reason to resist from Kalamata Greece on June 15, 2026.
And today I'm going to talk to you about the extraordinary dramatic developments over the past relating not only
to the war on Iran but also uh Israel's genocidal uh rampage in Lebanon. But
before I talk to you about what has happened and where I believe all of this is heading, I wanted to show you
something. This uh piece of ceramic tile, I collected this from the site of the
Minab School. Uh when I visited it in southern Iran in late March of this year, I did a lengthy report on what I
found there. Uh the 168 children and school teachers who were murdered in my judgment were intentionally massacred.
There could have been no doubt in the minds of those who ordered this attack that this was a school and that the
facility served no military purpose whatsoever. So from the rubble when I was conducting this investigation, I
took this uh piece of ceramic tile from what remained of that school to remind me to remind me of the depravity of
Western governments and particularly the Trump regime. Why am I showing this to you now? I've never shared this with
anybody. Uh, I've always kept it uh in my uh desk drawer uh to myself because
uh I believe that evidence of these monstrosities is what we ought to bear in mind when we consider how trustworthy
the Trump regime and the Netanyahu regime are when it comes to peace deals and ceasefires and how they're likely to
seek to exploit gaps and ambiguities in the deal that appears uh to be on the verge of signature this Friday in fact.
But uh we're going to get into that in some much greater detail, what exactly has transpired and what the terms of
this uh deal appear to be. Uh before I launch into that detail, I'd like to remind you to please like and share this
video if you find it being inform informative. And if you're not already a subscriber to Reason to Resist, please become one. help us achieve our goal of
200,000 subscribers uh by the end of this summer, which marks the 2-year anniversary of the founding of Reason to Resist. We just went over 181,000 and uh
our goal is definitely within striking distance. Thank you for all of your support. So, with that, let's get into
what has transpired uh in the past few days. The last time you heard from me and my colleague Ramy was last night.
And at that point it appeared as though uh Iran was going to launch a devastating series of missile strikes on
Israel because Israel during the day yesterday launched a uh lethal strike on
Beirut and the Iran had already made uh abundantly clear that striking Beirut was a red line for the Islamic Republic
and had already reacted uh to a strike on Beirut when we were in Lebanon. on a few days ago by attacking Israel and
whacking it pretty hard by all indications. Uh so when uh Iran bombed Israel u Lebanon or Beirut I should say
again yesterday and uh judging also from the statements that immediately began to come from senior officials civilian and
military in the Islamic Republic, it appeared very much that there was going to be a devastating series of strikes on
Israel and the uh memorandum memorandum of understanding as Iran refers to it even though it was very close to
completion indications uh had been thrown into doubt. And just up here on the screen, by the way, uh Ramy, we
published a report uh by Ramy, who's in Beirut uh and went to the site of the bombing yesterday within about an hour of it happening. Uh if you haven't seen
that report, we recommend it to you. I'm showing you also here uh a an account
from our comrade Hadi Hotate of Press TV uh who also went to the site of the
bombing yesterday. And uh according to Hadi uh the uh the strike killed a
father, a mother and a daughter. The uh man who was killed according to Hadi was head of the Lebanese resistance
communications unit in Beirut but not a military commander. He was responsible for liazing with the Lebanese state and on any agreements or negotiations. He
suggested Israel's bank of targets depleted have been reduced to killing such figures in their homes. This is what had reported. Now I have uh by the
way an important piece of news to share with you and that is I just learned from Ramy who continues to be in Beirut that
Hadi apparently has been injured. Uh he is in hospital receiving treatment. Uh Ramy assures me that he is in good
condition, but I don't have details as to what exactly happened. I would imagine uh that he was injured while in
the field reporting from South Lebanon uh because he does that almost every day and a great great risk to himself. Uh so we wish him uh the swiftest of
recoveries and send him our love and solidarity. Now, at the 11th hour
yesterday, uh when it appeared that uh Israel was going to get whacked and whacked hard again, uh the Donald
appears to have panicked and uh he reportedly made a series of 11th hour concessions to Iran which persuaded it
not to proceed with retaliatory strikes on Israel uh and also uh to uh agree to
the final form of this memorandum of understanding. And here up on the screen I have put a report from drop site news
published I believe it was earlier this morning. It's quite telling this report.
According to dos drop site Iranian officials are portraying Israel's Sunday escalation in Lebanon is the trigger that led Washington to accept several of
tan's key conditions for a US Iran memorandum of understanding. claiming that the threat of a wider regional war and a direct Iranian response shifted
the negotiations in Iran's favor. Uh the deputy foreign minister of Iran said some of Tan's proposed revisions to the texts were accepted after developments
in Lebanon and warnings from Iran's armed forces helped move the negotiations forward, saying the military pressure quote helped finalize
the text close quote and resolve outstanding issues. Vice President J. D.
Vance interestingly said the US officials aggressively interveneed to stop a major Iranian missile retaliation against Israel. Speaking to Fox News,
Vance said that after the Israeli military launched air strikes in Beirut, intelligence indicated Iran was heavily preparing a massive missile strike
against Israeli targets. One of the things that happened is that Iran cleared its airspace uh and uh uh you
couldn't see any uh commercial aircraft in the skies over Iran uh which was a strong indicator of where things were heading. Now uh through uh intense
lastminute diplomatic communications during the finalization of the US Iranou American negotiators says drop site successfully secured explicit assurances
from tan that they would hold back their military response.
Separately, the New York Times, citing three uh Iranian officials, reported that Thran had prepared but ultimately called off a planned retalitary strike
on Israel after President Trump through intermediaries urged restraint with Iranian officials believing an escalation could derail a peace agreement that was close to completion.
The claims have been echoed across multiple Iranian news sources says uh drop site uh and uh one of them uh
stated that commitments related to preserving Lebanon's territorial integrity were made at the 11th hour by
the Trump regime. Uh an Israeli withdrawal from Lebanese border areas and the immediate lifting of the naval blockade. These were commitments that
were secured by uh the Islamic Republic in exchange for its agreement to uh not
whack Israel again and uh to conclude the negotiations over the memorandum of understanding. Uh this is quite uh
dramatic. Whatever happens, I must say to this memorandum of understanding, which I'm going to describe to you in
greater detail in a moment, uh the fact that a threat of a military strike by
Iran, a state in West Asia that is opposed to US agy, a predominantly Muslim state, uh a threat of a missile
attack on Israel, secured panicked concessions from the president of the United States of America. Very
significant concessions, including apparently a commitment to oblige Israel's withdrawal of its military forces from
Lebanon. This is absolutely unprecedented and uh extremely significant in terms of the balance of
power in the region of West Asia. Even if the withdrawal does not actually happen, and there's good reason to doubt
that it will anytime soon, um, still the fact that this was done and done fairly publicly shows the degree to which the
United States has been weakened in this region, uh, primarily by Iran and, uh,
its extraordinarily, uh, courageous and determined people, but also by the other forces of resistance in the region, uh,
including including of course our brothers and sisters in Palestine, in Lebanon, Yemen and Iraq. Now um
following this uh these dramatic developments, these 11th hour concessions, Pakistan's prime minister
issued a statement. Uh this was uh I believe late last night my time in his
as you can see there if you don't know it already is Sharif. Let me just mention that this character uh in late
uh 2025 in Sham Elshik, Egypt uh gave Donald Trump a tongue bath in front of
the whole world when uh it was announced with great fanfare uh that the peace board had been established. So he is in
every sense of the word. I actually showed a clip from that video uh back in the last couple of months of 2025 on
reason to resist and it was a truly cringe-worthy moment. So he is a vassel in every sense of the word but I must
say his regime seems to have made a significant contribution to uh the conclusion of anou. He wrote, "Following
intensive talks, we are pleased to announce that the peace deal, notice the caps uh at the beginning of peace and
deal between the US of America and Islamic Republic of Iran has been reached all caps. Both sides have declared the immediate and permanent
termination of military operations on all fronts, including Lebanon. I repeat, the immediate and permanent termin
termination of military operations." You have it straight from the vassel's mouth.
Then he says the official signing ceremony will be on Friday 19th June in Switzerland and we would like to thank uh the US and so forth. This was quickly followed by a post from Dement.
Uh this was yesterday at 5:29 p.m. uh Washington time. The deal with the Islamic Republic of Iran is now
complete. Congratulations to all. I hereby fully authorize as if he is the person who has the final say on whether
or not traffic goes through the straight of Hormuz the tollfree opening of the straight of Hormuz and simultaneously herewith authorized the immediate
removal of the United States naval blockade notice the word immediate as you're going to see theou uh talked about the blockade being
lifted over a period of 30 days from the time of signing apparently this is one of the concessions that Iran obtained.
Instead of giving the United States 30 days to lift the blockade, uh it uh impressed upon demented Donald the uh
urgent uh necessity of lifting the blockade immediately. And then he wrote, "Chips of the world, start your engines,
let the oil flow." Now, um this uh caused some constrnation
uh because uh he said that the uh uh he indicated that the uh straight of Hormuz
was going to be opened immediately. Uh but uh not only the blockade would be lifted, but the straight would be opened immediately, but theou as I'm going to
show you apparently gives Iran up to 30 days uh to restore traffic to its pre-war level. So, an hour later or so,
uh, Trump put out this post. This is 6:27 p.m. The prior one was 5:29 p.m.
Says, "This great deal will bring peace and security to the whole region. He loves to capitalize peace, doesn't he?
Many presidents have tried to make peace with Iran, and all have failed before me. He's the only one who actually attacked Iran, and he's bragging about
being the only president who made peace with it. The leaders of the region have for the first time found a president who can help them achieve real peace with the opening of the strait upon the
signing of the deal on Friday. For purposes of mine removal, oil will flow on both ends again for the region and the world. So now he's saying uh that
the straight opening will begin on Friday. Whereas he indicated in his prior post it was going to start right away. So the subtle change here is that
he is signaling that uh the straight doesn't have to be open until the agreement is already signed. But he has
uh committed in writing to an immediate opening or lifting of the blockade.
Now before I get into the terms of the deal, we've learned more about this from Iranian media in the last . I
want to share with you a comment that I made uh over the weekend on X. This was in response to a June 12th post by Mario
Nafal uh on whose ex program I uh appear from time to time. And in his post, uh Nfal said, "Trump to Netanyahu on the
phone, this is the deal. It's an excellent deal. It's time to end this war." Netanyahu barely said a word. He knows the train has left the station and
so forth. So, my response to this, and I've uh posted similar comments like this on social media uh repeatedly over
the last uh several weeks and months, was this. There's no peace deal. There won't be a peace deal. Even if they sign
something, it won't be worth toilet paper because Trump and Netanyahu will both sabotage it. we should stop fixating on this absurd circus and focus
on what the child murdering Israelis are doing to Palestine and Lebanon.
Now this post uh which uh did get a significant degree of attention uh on
social media. Um you might say that uh my uh prediction has been proven wrong
because in fact uh they have according to uh the prime minister of Pakistan and
uh Trump himself entered into a peace deal. That's what they're calling they're calling a peace deal. Uh well uh
if I am wrong about that, let me be very clear about this folks. I'll be the first to cork open the champagne.
There's nothing I'd love to see more than a just and sustainable peace throughout the region. Above all, for those who have been most uh tormented,
persecuted, brutalized uh by these savages and uh those are the Palestinian people. but for all the peoples of the
region even and including peoples living in countries whose governments uh are vassels of Washington they all deserve a
just and lasting peace uh and we are far far away from one thus far which is why I say that uh it isn't actually a peace
deal uh we don't yet have peace as you're going to see and there are serious questions about whether or not
this uh memorandum of understanding will ultimately transform into something that can reasonably be described as a peace
deal. So with that, let's move on then to what the Iranian media said uh within the past about what is in this
uh agreement. And I'm putting up here a summary of uh uh the agreement which was
posted by the Iranian news agency Mayor News. Now I want to repeat this is a
summary. Okay. So, the exact language uh we don't know for sure what the exact language is. There may be significantly
more detail in the memorandum of understanding than we're getting here.
In a couple of places here in this summary, you do see uh words put in quotation marks and they're important words. Uh but uh we're missing
information and it's important to understand that. So, let's go through this in some detail. uh the immediate and clause number one, the permanent and
immediate halt of war on all fronts, including Lebanon. Uh let's just stop there. It doesn't say anything in this summary about the withdrawal of US troops. It talks about a halt of war.
That doesn't necessarily mean that troops from Israel will be withdrawn.
Now, the Iranians uh the indicated last night that uh in a panic Trump um said
that Israel would be obliged to withdraw its forces. And apparently the way they are dealing with this, although we'll
have to see what the finalou actually says, is by inserting into the agreement a reference to Lebanon's territorial
integrity. Of course, territorial integrity, its preservation would mean that hostile military forces from a
foreign country would no longer be occupying it. So, indirectly by invoking the principle of Lebanon's territorial
integrity, theou apparently endorses uh the commitment or embraces the commitment of Trump to ensure Israel's
Israel's withdrawal from Lebanon. But uh sure for one thing is for sure. The summary doesn't say anything explicitly
about the withdrawal of uh US of Israeli military forces from Lebanon. And it's not clear that there is an explicit requirement to that effect in the final
version either. Clause two, a US commitment not to interfere in Iran's internal affairs and to respect the sovereignty of the Islamic Republic of Iran. Clause three, the complete lifting
of the naval lockade within 30 days. As I said, it appears that in fact the lifting has been expedited uh and that
Trump committed to do this in order to uh assuage uh the anger of the Iranian civilian and military leadership after the strike on Beirut.
Clause four, a US commitment to withdraw its forces from the areas surrounding Iran. Now, uh, as you will know, if you
were watching our program this weekend, a the deputy chair of the Iranian Parliament National Security Committee
criticizes this provision because it doesn't actually uh specify what is meant by the areas surrounding Iran.
Does that mean the entire Persian Gulf?
20 minutesUh, does that mean ships that are within 100 kilometers of Iran's territorial waters? Does that mean uh military bases
that are further away for the US military bases from the Persian Gulf, for example, in Adabil in uh the north
of Iraq or in Jordan or in land away from the Persian G Gulf in Saudi Arabia?
Uh it's unclear what uh exactly all of this uh means. This is a very important detail. Clause five, the reopening of the street of Hormuz within 30 days
under Iranian arrangements. Here, Mayor News has put the word arrangements in quotation marks indicating that word is actually used in theouou. Uh, it's very
unclear what is meant by that. And as I argued in our live stream yesterday, when you're dealing with cheats and
liars and conmen like Donald Trump, you don't want to use ambiguous language because he will exploit those ambiguities to screw you over. Nor do
you want to have uh uh gaps in the agreement because he will exploit uh any in in respect of any issue that the
agreement is silent on. He will exploit that silence uh and uh to impose an interpretation on the agreement that is
nothing more than a bad faith uh fraudulent exercise in more uh wars of aggression. In any case, we go on here.
Clause six, the suspension of oil sanctions, petrochemical products, and derivatives in Iran's full access to the financial proceeds from them. This is very important because it means that
immediately upon uh uh the uh lifting of the blockade, which apparently has happened right now, it's already happened or is in the process of being
done. Uh Iran can begin to generate substantial revenues from the sale of oil. And the price of oil, even though
it came down significantly after thisou was said to be concluded, it's still significantly more elevated than it was
at the beginning of the year and it's not going to come down to the prior levels uh anytime soon, if ever, for a whole bunch of reasons we've discussed
previously. Iran therefore has the opportunity to bring in much needed revenue very rapidly uh in a world that is starve for oil. Uh so this is an
important benefit from this agreement that Iran can realize immediately.
Then it says clause 7, the requirement for the US and its allies to present reconstruction plans for Iran worth at least 300 billion. That's a lot of
dough. Uh and if in fact Iran does get uh 300 billion or more uh that would be
a stunning achievement for the Islamic Republic. Uh, clause 8, 60 days of negotiations to reach a final agreement based on the nuclear issues and the
complete lifting of primary and secondary US sanctions as well as a UN Security Council resolution and resolution of the IAEA Board of
Governors. Nine, Iran's reiteration of its commitment under the NPT not to produce nuclear weapons. It's interesting they use the word
reiteration. Uh, Iran has always said that it was not going to produce nuclear weapons and it hasn't, by all indications, produced nuclear weapons.
And yet Donald Trump is portraying this commitment not to produce nuclear weapons as something new and huge that only he, the great Donald, was able to
secure from Iran. Uh, clause 10, during the negoti negotiation period, the US has committed not to add to its forces
in the region. Uh, clause 11, the release of 24 billion of Iran's frozen funds during the 60-day period of final negotiations. Half of this amount must
be made available to Iran before the negotiations begin. Uh so again this too is a very important benefit for Iran
that u uh Iran uh stands to uh benefit from whatever happens in the subsequent
negotiations even if they break down and the war resumes once that $12 billion is handed over to Iran in effect the US
can't get it back and that's money that Iran undoubtedly uh could put to very good use. Now, uh, now, as I said in our
live stream yesterday, there is an Iranian parliamentarian who says that the $12 billion that's supposed to be given up front is not going to be in
cash, but in the form of goods. Uh, I think that's problematic for Iran. It's something. Uh, but uh, how do you value
uh, the goods that the United States is going to give? Is there a mechanism in there for ensuring that whatever the United States gives to Iran has a real
value of 12 billion? And furthermore, because it's good, not cash, it limits what Iran can do with those $12 billion.
Maybe it needs the money to rebuild its civilian infrastructure. For example, uh the water facilities that the criminal Trump regime destroyed a few days ago in
the south of Iran, uh but uh if you're getting, you know, medicines and food, as much as that may be beneficial to the
population, it ain't going to help you rebuild that uh critical infrastructure.
But we'll see. We don't know for sure whether that 12 billion upfront money is going to be in cash or in goods or some combination of that. Uh then uh clause
12 of theou the formation of a supervisory mechanism to implement the agreement. Uh that's very important although we'll have to see what that looks like. Clause 13 the final
agreement will be approved through a UN security council resolution. Clause 14 final negations negotiations will not begin before half of Iran's frozen funds
are released. Iran's oil sanctions are suspended and the naval blockade is lifted. The final agreement will be limited only to the fate of enriched
materials and enrichment, sanctions relief, and the program for rebuilding Iran's economy. Discussions about Iran's
missile program and support for resistance groups have been definitively removed from the agenda. That is a huge uh victory as well for Iran. Uh now, if
that if that uh is a clause that the US and Israel respect, it's a huge victory for Iran. But if in fact they decide uh
that they want to see an end to Iran's ballistic missile program and all of its support uh for resistance groups uh
somewhere down the road like in a few weeks time and that if Iran doesn't give them that it's going they're going to bomb Iran. Who's going to stop them?
Who's going to stop him? The thing for me that matters is that there are upfront benefits under this agreement that the United States and Israel can't
take away. Uh so that appears to be the case. Again, we'll have to see the final version, but uh if in fact uh that is
the case, uh this is a very important and beneficial development for Iran, whatever might happen in subsequent negotiations.
Now, let's turn uh to uh some other important news when it comes to the whole question of where we go from here.
In a uh report yesterday to the New York Times, uh Trump said the following.
He insisted that if Iran failed to reach a final nuclear accord with the United States, a process that is a his aids say uh they expect will begin on Friday in
Switzerland, he would restart military attacks on Iran tan or make the United States the guardian of the Middle East in return for 20% of the region's
revenue. So you see right there that there are a number of very key issues uh that haven't been resolved and he is threatening to launch yet another war of
aggression on Iran if the terms of the deal are not to his satisfaction. So just on that basis alone it is way too
early to say that there is a peace deal in place. uh uh absolutely uh it remains
to be seen whether or not uh this thing will one day be transformed into a peace deal. And in that regard, I want to
point out to you that there are at least five major issues that remain unresolved and that have been punted down the road.
Number one, what restrictions will Iran accept on its nuclear enrichment? Uh now Trump has made some noises in the last
couple of days which suggest he may be willing to accept uh some enrichment at a very low level
but uh and this actually emerges from uh his interview with the New York Times yesterday. Uh but you as you all know uh
Trump uh changes his tune uh consistently and radically and sometimes within the same the space of the same sentence. So who knows what he's going
to say and demand when they actually sit down at the table and start negotiating on this issue. In anya in any case it has not been resolved and it has been a
thorn in the side of US and Iran relations to put it mildly for decades.
The second issue that's been punted down the road over what time frame and how will Trump lift sanctions imposed by Congress. As Dr. Fouad Isadi of the
University of Tran has pointed out and he's been on our show before uh the sanctions imposed by Congress are the
most important sanctions for Iran. Trump would need congressional congressional approval for the sanctions to be lifted.
Will he get it? And he will he try really try to get it. That's also a question. A third issue that has not been resolved and punted down the road
for purposes of the withdrawal of US forces. What is meant by areas surrounding Iran? This is a very important question. Uh number four, who
will fund the 300 billion reconstruction of Iran? Trump can simply order uh cannot simply order that Trump's be paid
when you're talking about three uh that I'm sorry, these funds be paid to Iran.
In theory, Congress controls the purse of the government. Uh you want to give that kind of money, even if it's just partly coming from the US and the rest is coming from Gulf Arabitocracies.
Let's just say 50 billion is coming from the US, you're going to need congressional approval. Will Congress give him that approval? And if so, uh,
with what strings attached? And finally, will Iran maintain control over the Strait of Hormuz? And specifically, can
it charge fees? Uh, can it also block specific categories of ships from going through like military vessels or Israeli
uh vessels, Israeli linked commercial vessels. These are very, very meaty issues. any one of them could result in
a collapse of the deal of the negotiation and a return uh to hostilities. So with all due respect to
the prime minister of Pakistan and demented Donald uh this ain't nothing like a peace deal. It is at best a framework framework for further
negotiation with some important upfront benefits to uh Iran but also and this is
critically uh critical to the analysis of the wisdom of this deal. The opening
of the street of Hormuz is going to alleviate pressure on the global economy and the US economy uh quite quickly if
in fact pre-war levels of commercial uh transportation are uh restored within the next few weeks. And uh and that
means that uh Trump is going to head into the midterm elections with a lot less pressure on him economically speaking. Uh so Trump is getting
something extremely important out of all of this. His chances if this thing holds until at least the midterms, the
sessation of hostilities and unrestricted travel through the straight of Hormuz, Trump's chances of retraining
retaining control of the Senate and the Congress have gone up significantly if this holds. Uh and uh my concern, I'll
be very blunt about this, is that once Demented Donald uh retains control in the midterms of the House and the Senate
and therefore no longer has the threat of impeachment hanging over his dastardly head. He may be well tempted
at that stage to return to a hot war and say, "Look, the negotiations are going badly. The Iranians are being
unreasonable. Uh we've had it. We're throwing in the towel. we are going to have to bomb them into oblivion in order
to uh uh secure their obedience to our maximalist demands. Uh that is something
32 minutesthat may well happen and in the interim uh Trump you can be sure is going to be do doing whatever he can to replenish
the depleted oil the depleted heavily depleted oil inventories in the United States including the US strategic petroleum uh reserve and will be doing
whatever he can to uh rep replenish the highly depleted munition stocks of the United States and Israel. And one other
point, right now the weather is getting extremely hot in the Persian Gulf, but around the time that the midterms will end, we'll be entering into the winter
and weather conditions in the Persian Gulf will be more conducive to military operations. Right now, they're uh very
non-conducive to military operations and will be increasingly so in the next couple of months. So, this could all be a setup, folks. It could be a setup for
a return to war after Donald Trump goes through uh the midterms. Now, uh he's in serious trouble all the same. And even
with this deal, even if the straight of Hormuz remains opened, uh no significant restrictions uh for months to come, he
may be toast. Uh but uh he certainly his hopes of retaining control of the Congress and the Senate just went up significantly. Uh especially if this
holds. Uh and uh one other thing I want to point out by the way uh and this is something that we covered on the re
reason to resist a few weeks ago uh oil industry experts and one in particular by the name of uh Art Burman who was on
Daniel Davis's The Deep Dive a few weeks ago. We covered this in some detail. He uh argued that even if Iran suddenly uh
stops throwing in the way of commercial shipping any impediments in the straight of Horamuz, it's going to take uh weeks
and maybe up to a couple of months for uh the ships to start going through at the same level as before. Uh and that
initially there is going to be very little uh passage through the straight of Hormuz because people are going to be trying to figure out if in fact it's
safe. uh whether the deal is going to break down. They're going to want to be assured that there aren't mines in the straight of Hodus. They are going to uh
want to uh get their ducks in a row with their insurers. The insurers are going to need time to assess the situation before they figure out what appropriate
premiums are and whether they're willing to insure these vessels. So, this is going to take weeks, possibly months.
And interestingly, I saw a report today uh that even though in theory the straight of Hormuz has been opened, uh there were no commercial uh ships going
through the straight of Hormuz, there was only one little patrol ship that was going through. Uh which is consistent with what oil industry expert Art Burman
argued on uh Daniel Davis's deep dive a couple of weeks ago. Uh so uh whatever may happen with this agreement, even the
best case scenario, the global economy is not out of the woods yet. And I want to point out that uh Art Burman himself said that the price of oil is never
going to go back uh to where uh it was at the beginning of the year, which is around $61 a barrel. uh and that it may
stay well above $81 forever uh because of a whole host of factors including uh the loss of trust
in uh you know the safety of shipping through the region, the damage that has been done to oil infrastructure
uh and uh uh you know the uh re uh formulation of the balance of power and how that is going to affect economic activity in the area.
This brings me finally to the all-important question of why uh when the United States and uh Iran were on
the verge of concluding this memorandum of understanding uh Netanyahu ordered his military to
bomb Beirut, knowing full well that the Iranians regarded this as a red line.
Well, uh, the corporate media, uh, would have you believe, uh, that this was done contrary to the will of Donald Trump.
And this is certainly a narrative that Donald Trump has been aggressively promoting within the past .
uh he according to uh corporate media outlets in the west, particularly Axios,
blew up and became apoplelectic when he learned of the strike by uh the Israeli
genocide forces on Beirut on Sunday. And according to Axios and other corporate media outlets, Trump was so irate that
he used the f-bomb yet again in describing the war criminal Netanyahu and said that he has no
judgment. This is a report in the Times of Israel published yesterday.
US President Donald Trump lashed out at Israel on Sunday after the IDF struck a Hezbollah target in Beirut, angering tan and potentially risking the deal
Washington is trying to finalize with the Islamic Republic. reportedly accusing Prime Minister Netanyahu of having no judgment. The president also declared that the IDF
should be prevented from carrying out any more attacks on any part of Lebanon moving forward, not just Beirut. The suggestion was said to raise concerns
among Israeli officials that the prospective US Iran deal could sharply curb Israel's military freedom of action. Now, this is a theme that we
have been uh fed not just uh since Trump returned to the White House in January, but this goes back actually decades. And it was a
particularly prominent theme in the corporate media uh during the genocide in occupied Palestine when Joe Biden was in office over and over and over again.
Media outlets including Axios reported that uh Genocide Joe was irate with
Netanyahu even to the point of himself using the Fbomb once or twice to describe Netanyahu because he just
wouldn't uh enter into a ceasefire agreement and end the child murdering slaughter uh which uh Biden himself was
facilitating through the provision of massive amounts of weaponry to Israel.
Uh if you've been following uh my commentary on this issue, you will know uh that I don't buy this for one second.
And this past weekend uh for the first time, I learned that none other than Sed Hassan Nazala
himself expressed profound skepticism about this narrative. I'm going to share with you a clip of an interview that he
did later in life. Uh the secretary general of Hezbollah before he was murdered by Israel. And here's what he had to say in this regard.
American.
right now.
Now, for those who do not speak Arabic and who are unable to read the subtitles in this clip, I'm going to replay this
again uh this brief clip and read to you the subtitles.
So, if Israel targets Iran even by itself, America will be held accountable for this.
There is a misconception prevalent in the Arab world regarding USIsrael relations.
We keep repeating this lie about the Zionist lobby.
That the Jews rule America and are the real decision makers and so on.
No, America itself is the decision maker. In America, you have the major corporations. You have a trinity of the
oil companies, the weapons industry, and the so-called Christian Zionism. The decision-m is in the hands of this
alliance. Israel used to be a tool at the hands of the British and now it is a tool in the hands of America.
It was quite surprising for me to come across this clip uh at this stage in my uh thinking about these issues because this is uh pretty much exactly what I've
been arguing for some time. I myself used to adhere to what I think can fairly be described as the mainstream
view about the relationship between Israel and the United States. Uh but uh over time gradually I've come to
understand uh that uh the sentiments expressed in that clip by uh the former secretary general of Hezbollah are spoton.
It is in fact the United States that is driving the bus in uh uh foreign policy
matters in West Asia. Now if I'm right about that, it raises a question, a very good question.
If Trump uh is in fact uh the decision maker in this relationship with Netanyahu, then why did Trump allow Netanyahu to bomb Beirut on Sunday?
After all, he knew that this was a red line for Iran, at least that's what Iran had stated and had acted on it at least once. The last time Israel had bombed
Beirut, Iran reacted by attacking Israel. Um and uh it is also clear that
uh demented Donald was very anxious to get the straight of Hormuz opened again and that he wanted this memorandum of
understanding to be finalized on his birthday on Sunday uh before the markets opened on Monday. So it's a good
question and a fair question. Why in those circumstances would Donald Trump say uh to Netanyahu, yes uh we want you
to bomb Beirut, please do so. which is I think essentially what happened. Well, the reason uh I would suggest is this.
By the time we got to Sunday, the Iranian leadership was politically invested in getting a deal done. They
had gone out uh into the Iranian media, particularly the foreign minister of Iran, Abbas Adakshi, and had said not
only that they were closer than ever to a deal, but they had they not only the foreign minister, but other senior officials within the Iranian political
elite had uh started to make the case to the Iranian people about why this was a good deal for Iran and it should be
done. So when you get to Sunday, uh I think that Donald Trump was asking himself a question at this stage given that the Iranians are so politically
invested in a deal. Are they really going to be willing to jeopardize this deal which they've been telling their people is good for the country because
we attacked a city in another country, namely Lebanon. We are going to test the resolve of the Iranians and if they
allow us to get away with this uh so that the deal goes forward then we know that we basically have freedom of action in Lebanon going forward during the next
uh several weeks or months of negotiation.
On the other hand, if they react harshly and uh make clear uh through their response that they are willing to uh
jeopardize this deal, perhaps even trash it all together in order to defend Lebanon, then we will know that they are
serious and that they remain serious about defending the sovereignty of the Lebanese people. In other words, they
were testing Iran's resolve. That's what Netanyahu were doing on Sunday, in my view.
uh they around and they found out. What they found out is that yes indeed even though the Iranian political
leadership was invested to a considerable degree in getting this deal done had made the case that it was good for the country, they were nonetheless
willing to jeopardize the deal in order to stop the brutalization of Lebanon.
And when that became clear, Donald Trump decided uh to make uh urgent concessions to Iran to present a resumption of the
war to ensure that the straight of humus got opened. Uh this is something upon which his political uh survival is
based. He needs to get it open uh more than ever in order at least until the midterms in order to protect himself uh
from possible impeachment or worse. And so he made a series of concessions to prevent a resumption of the war. That's
what happened. And this is not something that is new. The uh Americans before Donald Trump engaged in this sorts of
behavior. They always are testing the boundaries of what they can get away with, testing the resolve of their enemies, even if it involves cheating,
even if it involves trickery, treachery, perity. Uh they don't care about any of that. What they want to know is how much freedom of action they have. what could
what can they get get away with? And they found out on this occasion, I think to their surprise, that even at that late hour, uh the Iranian leadership was
prepared uh to defend the sovereignty and dignity of Lebanon by attacking Israel.
Now, uh what is going to happen from here on in? Well, uh, we got a good indication of this, uh, this morning,
uh, when, uh, it was reported that, uh, the Israelis had struck a car in the
southern Lebanese town of Kafarnit, causing casualties while Israeli artillery shelled Kafarnit and Nabetia
al Fawaka. Lebanon's national news agency reported the strikes came just hours after Iran, the US and the mediator Pakistan announced a deal
declaring a quote immediate and permanent end uh to military operations on all fronts including Lebanon. So uh
yet again they are testing the resolve of the Iranians although they're doing it at a much lower level. They didn't attack Beirut. They didn't carpet bomb
the country in the south, but they are doing what I think could fairly be described as pin prick strikes. And from
here, if they get away with this, they will escalate them. And eventually, they will get around to bombing Beet again as we get deeper and deeper into these
negotiations. They will test the resolve of the Iranian uh military and political leadership at some point during the next
uh 60 days or so of negotiation. and uh they are going to have to decide uh the Iranian political and military
leadership whether they're going to put up with it. I think they will allow some uh of this uh treachery to occur. Uh but their patience for it is going to be
limited and uh I believe at this stage uh they will uh take whatever actions they deem necessary to put a stop to it.
But for the time being, all indications are that Israel is not going to respect uh this ceasefire and that the Americans
are not only going to allow Israel to violate the ceasefire as they have all other ceasefires, all of them, including
the uh laughable uh absurd and uh insulting to our intelligence ceasefire
in uh Gaza. And uh yet again uh the Americans and the Israelis are going to find out the hard way uh that there are
limits to the patience of the Islamic Republic and they will ultimately act to protect uh the sovereignty of their allies in the region. How do I know that
they are going to continue down this path? The Americans and the Israelis of provocation because uh the Israelis are
saying openly that they're going to do just that although they're not using the word provocation. Uh today uh Prime Minister Netanyahu reportedly told US
Trump, President Trump, that Israel does not consider itself bound by the Lebanon related provisions of the US Iran agreement and will not withdraw from
positions it currently occupies inside Lebanese territory. According to Israeli media outlets Yerioth Akronoth and Mariv
Netanyahu told Trump that Israeli forces will continue carrying out military operations in Lebanon Lebanon aimed at countering what Israel describes as
threats from Hezbollah regardless of any understandings reached between Washington and Tan. MV's report also said Trump has imposed restrictions on
Israel's freedom to operate inside Lebanon. Uh let's be very clear here. uh any restrictions that do not amount to a
total ban on uh military operations, in other words, terrorist activity of the Israeli genocide forces in Lebanon will
ultimately precipitate another crisis in the negotiating process and quite possibly its uh complete collapse. Now,
this brings me to um some commentary from a good friend of mine in Lebanon, one uh whom I've had the privilege to
interview here on Reason to Resist. Her name is Marwa Osman and she posted the following on X today.
I have been asked repeatedly this week whether Lebanon will actually be included in any potential memorandum of understanding between Iran and the United States. My answer remains the
same and it always will. Despite Iran's efforts and genuine intentions to see an end to Israeli terrorism on Lebanese soil, I am a southern Lebanese woman
from Hyam. I lived through the reality of occupation, aggression, and war firsthand. I have also spent years studying the history of an entity born
from supremacy, colonialism, dispossession, and theft. The more I witness and learn about its genocidal tendencies and terrorism, the less faith
I place in any signed document between any two governments that believe they can somehow restrain or control this
cancerous project of terrorism. I see no lasting peace emerging from pieces of paper. I see the same pattern that
history has shown us for decades. wars, massacres, invasions, and inevitably resistance. If history has taught us
anything, it is that no agreement, resolution, or signature ever stopped Zionists from killing, occupying, or stealing. What stopped them were the
costs imposed on them. What forced them to retreat was bullets, kushas, cornets, missiles, and FPVs, only resistance.
That is why my trust has never been in signed papers. My trust lies in the ability of people to defend themselves, their land and their dignity and that is where it will remain.
My friend Mara is a very very wise person and I urge you uh to heed her eloquent commentary.
Lastly, I'm going to conclude on this note. The Israeli media are apoplelectic.
uh they are openly acknowledging that this agreement uh should it be respected which remains a huge question is a
strategic disaster for Israel. I'm just going to show you one of many possible examples I could show you. This is a paragraph from an article published
yesterday by the Times of Israel and they said Israel was not included in the talks over the agreement whose
reported terms have caused profound concern among Israeli officials. The deal reportedly fails to achieve any of the goals of the war that were set out
by the US and Israel. Any of the goals, including eliminating Iran's nuclear weapons program. They don't have a nuclear weapons program, by the way.
Well, this is just a proxy when the Israeli media says this for the elimination of the entire nuclear
program. Even uh you know uh even taking into account that it's a purely peaceful purposes. uh it didn't achieve the
military operations, the war of aggression in depleting Iran's ballistic missile stockpile. It didn't end support
for what uh these terrorist supporters in the Times of Israel refer to as terror proxies.
And it didn't create the conditions for the fall of the regime. That's right.
It's a total failure on all fronts, not only for Israel, uh but also for the United States. So whatever happens from
here on in, I want to reiterate that this is a historic victory for the Iranian people, for the Iranian nation.
Although I don't believe that this war is over, not by a long shot. Uh and would very much like to be wrong about
that. Uh there is no doubt that the world has changed forever. And frankly, I feel privileged to have witnessed it.
This is Dimmitri Lceras coming to you from Kalamata, Greece on June 15th, 2026.