This Time Trump's DAMAGE Will Be Permanent | Shield of the Republic
by Eliot A. Cohen and Eric Edelman
The Bulwark
Feb 16, 2025 Shield of the Republic Podcast
Eric and Eliot try to parse the fire hose of news emanating from the Trump Administration. They discuss Eliot's Atlantic article on the American antecedents and causes of Trump's ascendancy and whether there is still some point in looking at the European autocrats like Viktor Orban on whom some Trumpists model themselves, as well as Ruy Texeira's article in the Free Press arguing that defending USAID is not the hill to die on for Democrats. They also discuss Richard Danzig's Washington Post article on how Elon Musk's DOGE might constructively help reform DoD's broken and dysfunctional acquisition process. They discuss the problems with Trump's Gaza proposal as well as the fact that it highlights how all other approaches to the issue of Gaza's relations with Israel have heretofore failed. They discuss Trump's executive order on Iran as well as General Keith Kellogg's preparations for negotiations to end the war in Ukraine and Trump's offer to resettle White Afrikaaners who have been disadvantaged by majority rule in South Africa.
Transcript
have you had any of those conversations which begin with somebody saying look I
really hate Trump but
no I have not had any of those [Music]
conversations welcome to Shield of the Republic a podcast sponsored by the bullwark and the Miller Center of public
affairs at the University of Virginia I'm Eric Edelman and I am a non-resident fellow at the
Miller Center and a contributor to the bullwark and I'm joined from sunny I
hope espia by my partner in all things strategy Grand and not so Grand Elliot
Cohen who is professor emeritus of strategy at the Johns Hopkins University
School of advanced international studies and a contributing writer for the uh
Atlantic Elliot how how is P oh you know I mean after a while the
unremitting sunshine the temperature at you know about 60 the thick hot
chocolate the the Cherry the oranges I mean it wears on you after a while you know I I can imag I can imagine way
how's how's the weather where you are it's actually sunny right now although
it's about to I we're about to enter into several days of uh possible snow
storms so you you know um I I I will be thinking of you and the Sun and you know
sipping tempero and um and trying not to feel too jealous well actually we're
flying back into that so I I I hope we'll be able to make it so
plenty of stuff uh to discuss um uh Eric as as usual I will be faintly less
pessimistic than you are but that's a really low bar so why don't you just
start with your dark visions of how the world is getting you know just really about to go off the
cliff um yeah look I I I I think that you know um we're in a very dangerous
place right now um but look you you had a piece in the Atlantic I wanted to start us off on which uh basically said
look all these people like me uh have been comparing Trump to various authoritarians around the
world whether it's Putin whether it's Victor Orban or my personal favorite reie Ty erdogan in Turkey um and that uh
your point was that Trump is a very American phenomenon and there are plenty of antecedants in America for for Trump
you know Andrew Jackson um you know father cogin uh you know various uh
demagogues uh at the turn of the in the turn of the century South in the United States which I spent some of my misspent
youth as a graduate student actually studying um and and of course Eugene I
mean not Eugene I'm sorry uh Joseph McCarthy and um and I certainly agree
with the latter in particular I mean I think there is a lot of uh you know
McCarthyism in in trumpism and there's also kind of a you know a
genealogical uh element there because of course McCarthy's um emmanu Roy Cohen was also
sort of uh Trump's consiliary early in his career as a New York real estate
developer so I I guess I you know I'm I happy to concede the point that there are plenty of American antecedants I
guess what I would would just say is though I think that we should bear in mind that that while that is certainly
true some of these comparisons to uh you know European autocrats are
you know also still important to keep in mind in part because uh some of these
people like vice president Vance Have You Know spoken about their enormous admiration for Victor
orbon um there was um you know Vance was just quoting uh uh Harvard law professor
Adam verule who uh was tweeting about why we should disregard the decisions of
Judges ver mule like like Vance is a kind of wants a kind kind of Catholic
theocracy um you know there's there's some other antecedants there I mean the
Neo reactionary movement that Curtis yarvin uh you know has written about a
lot of that is rooted in this sort of kind of weird anarcho fascist Phenomenon
with Murray rothbard writing about um his admiration for musolini I you know
there just a lot of elements there and just over the week and you know the fact that um president Trump stripped Mark
Zade who's a lawyer does National Security work in DC on security clearances a lot of our former students
have actually used his services and when dealing with some complicated you know
clearance issues uh had his clearance stripped because he's been suing uh the
Trump Administration and watching him go after lawyers that's a very you know
Putin likee step so anyway I I I just see you know uh elements of both here so
so in what I suspect is going to be a series of attempts by made to explain
myself um let me push um so you know on the one hand I I
think there is some sort of there's some commonality with things that are happening elsewhere in the west which is
a general kind of revulsion against let's call them liberal Elites
but Mo I guess most broadly I would say you know that what what is the what is our task now obviously if there are
particular things that are going that we think are bad that we can fight we should fight them but I think the task
for intellectuals first figure out well how do we get here why is it that we're in the circumstance that we're in and I
really don't think comparisons with musolini or Victor Orban or any of these people
is of any use whatsoever I mean there
there has been a particular um I think kind of cultural evolution in the United
States um there's a particular history in the United States I I think certainly there a way of think about our future
it's crazy because you're dealing with countries that are completely different histories in the United States you know
you begin talking about viar Germany or even you know orban's Hungary places you
know Hungary traumatized by 50 years under the Russian boot bimar Germany
having gone through World War I um you know Turkey having always had
this conservative large conservative religious population that rebelled against the hypers secularism of OT Turk
none of these analogies are helpful in understanding why we are where we are
which I think is really the first thing that that is of importance and I think the smartest
Democrats understand that as I said I can see that there are some
elements of commonality here in what are the underlying phenomena but I think there's as I point out in the article
there's some very big differences between what the Trump people are trying to do and what you see
other autocrats doing one is um Al although on the one hand you're
quite right Trump wants to expand executive power in ways that are illegitimate and dangerous on the whole
the Enterprise is an attempt to destroy the government it's not to make it
stronger it it is you know to dismantle agencies not to create them and I think
that's actually quite significant I point to some other very to my mind very
substantial differences I I also think that um although I agree with you we're
in a we're in a dangerous time you know sooner in some ways than I
expected we're going to begin to see whether the rails will hold particularly if they decide simply to disregard court
orders now that it seems to me those will a lot of the things we're talking about ending Birthright citizenship or
even deciding you know trying to decide the federal govern that the executive branch can decide not to spend money that Congress is appropriate that's
going to end up at the Supreme Court I think all of those and we'll see um I
actually think it's a mistake to think that this Supreme Court will go along with that you know I I mean as I point
out in the article the the justices who've been most trumpy if that's a word
have been Alo and to some extent Clarence Thomas I
I don't think the others are going to go along with that and I also think that uh
you know the fact is this was a 50-50 kind of election although Trump is has
gotten a bit is to some extent popular because people like the idea of not spending money on Farm grenade and you
know taking down Dei and and stuff like that um I don't think that a lot of what
they're doing is very popular and it's not going to be popular um you know you stop spending money you know farmers are
getting upset tariffs are not going to do any good whatsoever for their own um
people so I I just think you know the laws of gravity are going to operate that's not I'm not trying to downplay
the dangers because I think the dangers are are real but but I I do think that
we make a mistake first by really whipping ourselves into a frenzy because they like that among other things but
but I also think just in terms of diagnosis and long-term repair to the
system you know what we need to do is we need to look as I say at the end of the the article we need to look at ourselves
in the mirror rather than look out the window and and in a certain way I I have to say I I feel that the analogy to the
orbons and the uh let alone to the molinis and then you know the argument at Hitler is
always a sign that you've you know you've run out of arguments it it's actually an excuse for inaction because
you say oh my God oh my God All Is Lost there's nothing we can do it's terrible
and okay all you're left with is reaching for the cyanide pills U as opposed to saying no maybe actually some
of the things that we did helped lead to this situation and maybe they're concrete things we can do to help fix it
I mean there's I I you know as I think I said very early on after the election if
there's one thing that I think is a mistake right now it's for people who are as opposed to this Administration as
you and I are is to get hysterical it's counterproductive and it just makes them happy yeah I agree look
I agree with a lot of what you said first of all but there are some areas that I I think I U have some minor
disagreements I agree that you know we need to look at
you know the United States to understand this phenomenon and and as I said the McCarthy phenomenon is probably the
closest in a lot of ways that we've come to this although there there elements of father cogin and and and and there's a
Jacksonian element you know as you argue as well
um I do think there's something you know to be gained from looking at the um you
know recent uh European uh uh experiences with some of this because as you say it is a global phenomenon and
some of the techniques and tactics that are being used are being either copied or borrowed from others and that's
important to understand not not least and this is maybe an area where I
disagree with you I agree they're trying to weaken the government but that doesn't mean that they're trying to weaken their own hold on power quite the
contrary of the the weakening of the government actually goes hand inand with
you know asserting their control and power over you know what in the in the
European context would be called the power Ministries and so you see these loyalty Oaths being um you know imposed
or or loyalty tests being imposed on people they're putting into um you know
into senior positions in the intelligence community and in in the uh
you know government um um National Security elements of the
government where people are being asked to it's you know orwellian you know you know the president said yesterday that
January 6th you know it was the people who were arrested who were being brutalized and people are now being
asked to say yes January 6 was an inside job if you want to be in the senior ranks of intelligence or elsewhere so
that is it is and it's outrageous it isn't change the fact that it's the states that are going to run
the elections not the federal government government it doesn't change the fact that you have a federal that you have a
federal system it doesn't change the fact that this guy is almost 80 years old and he is not you know despite kind
of joking to get People Like Us upset he's not going to run for a third term I
mean that you know I I I and I I think I really push back on the orbon and other
analogies because allo say is they they point out the things that we see are going on we don't we don't need the
analogies we don't need the analogy to Orban or erdogan to see what they're doing you could just have to read the
news but but the point of these analogies is Orban and erdogan have
succeeded and it's not part of a handbook of what do you do to unspool
this and what you need to be thinking about is how do we unspool this we we
know what's going on and we don't have to we can get it from our own papers yes it's a good point and I I mean actually
one of the other things I wanted to talk about was uh um article in the Free Press by ruie
tahara uh who's written a lot of very good stuff about you know how the Democrats ought to think about their
problems this article I had a lot little bit of a problem with as well I mean he he basically says don't fight and die on
the hill of us ID um and I kind of get that because what he's basically saying
is look this is the kind of political terrain that the Trump is want you to fight on because Americans don't like
foreign assistance they think you know they have got uh highly based on polling
data highly distorted ideas of how much we spend on foreign assistance uh you know it's one less
than 1% of the federal budget but they you know if you ask people in The Blind how much do you think we spend on you
know foreign assistance in the federal government they'll tell you 15% of the budget 25% of the budget it's very
outlandish so it's an easy target you know there's not a well there are some
domestic constituencies but there are weak domestic constituencies for this and I get the point that um you know
that fighting for uh you know you know to preserve
usaid is politically probably not the greatest ground for Dems to stand on
however I don't think that means we shouldn't object to it and I think there's a way to describe it and discuss
it that I think does get at some larger problems we talked a couple of weeks ago
about what you know we thought about the first few weeks or the first week or so of of trump and I said I thought the
thing that distinguished it was the lawlessness and the recklessness well this is an an area where this is you
know I'm perfectly happy as you know a former Ambassador who had Aid missions
in his embassies to say there are lots of things that you know we can talk about and debate about usid and
reforming it and there's an argument that I've made it myself that it should be in the state department not an
independent agency however there is a statute on the books passed by the Congress in the late 1990s that says it
is an independent agency and to have Elon Musk swoop in with a bunch of 22y
old um you know Mal you know maladjusted um you know incel white
supremacist you know computer nerds who know nothing about you know foreign assistance and have them you know not
doing any kind of review um you know not kind of deciding what
needs to be kept what needs what needs to be closed down and outside the normal budget process without any kind of you
know legal hook on it you know violating multiple laws um not just the law that
establishes usaid but the administrative procedures act the Privacy Act um you
know the foreign assistance act um you know I think there's plenty to push back on is because I don't think Americans
want their government to be run that way so I I I mean look I agree with that by the way it's not just Roy toer who I
agree with you I think is a very acute analyst who's been enormously frustrated at trying to get get the Democrats to
understand what just happened to them but also Rah Emanuel who I think is a very sophisticated politician and
internationally minded who also said this is not the hill to die on um you know I I don't have enough expertise on
domestic politics to know uh to know how to do that look I think think we're we're you know you and I are both kind
of instinctively revolted at the a lot of the foreign policy stuff more than most
people um I where I think we're probably in agreement unfortunately
is I think this stuff is not going to stop in some ways it's going to get worse and this time around unlike the
last time I think the damage to the to the nature of American Global Leadership
will be permanent and and you know but but the way I mean here maybe you know
you can call me a defeatist if you like but my view is okay so what's my job now
is it is there any chance we're going to reverse that no short of not just Trump
you know having uh a an aneurism but JD Vance
also having an aneurism um this is what the kind of stuff we're going to do Vance would be a
little bit smoother but I agree with you he's he's in some ways even more dangerous uh and he is in isolation
um so we're going to have to think out think about you know you know what
exactly is the Ned States going to do because there's a conundrum and you and I have talked about Michael beckley's
recent pieces in the Foreign Affairs which and you know we'll probably get them on on the show uh the United States
will remain probably prosperous and very powerful so what you know how will we
exert ourselves in the world but this is the final I I and here maybe I I do have
a dark view although I I don't know um I
this is the end of the world order that you and I grew up with and that you in particular grew up serving I did in a a
smaller way I you know I spent most of my career expounding it and it's
shocking to have it blown up in this respect though by the way I think
that Trump is partly cause and partly manifestation of deeper things I mean
that's the you know the more I think about this the more I'm I'm inclined to step back and say okay H how much of
this is the result of having had pretty awful leadership since at
least the Reagan Era um and how much of this is a result
of both parties including the party that you and I were part of being willing to
give the president Unholy amounts of power you know and I I mean I remember from our time in government you know the
the the view that people had of executive power which made me uneasy then and Obama ran with that and Biden
ran with that so now Trump's running with it some more I mean for example I think one of the biggest challenges we're going to face I'm I have no idea
whether we'll beet it or not is when the wreckage is cleared from this can we
create a system that puts more constraints on the president because I think that's really clearly
needed uh it's it's I think it's one of the most essential things that we need
to do as we think about our constitutional structur we need to find a way to reign in executive power well I
think we need to find a way to make the Constitutional structure work the way it was intended to work right which is that
the founders when they you designed uh the government and then explicated in
the Federal papers uh did not anticipate the rise of political parties they they anticipated
faction but they didn't anticipate political parties they certainly didn't
U anticipate the kind of uh polarized
political situation we have although they dealt with something close to it very early on in the Republic as we know
from our discussion with Lindsay trinsky um but what they counted on was and and
what got them through that period was people's attach institutional
attachments a triumphing over partisanship at some level and in other
words the Congress acted to offset powers of the executive or you know
Reign them in and that has been true more or less you know throughout our
government's history and right now we do we we we have a congress and and you
could make the argument I think as you have been making that Congress over a long period of time has been yielding power to the executive but um we now
have a Congress that is like willingly giving up its its power even though they
know it's being taken away and they kind of know it's not right yeah I I I agree
with that um look I think they but it's true the founders also thought that there were other things that would keep
the United States going part of it was simply it's great extent you know one of the big arguments that they have to make
is I mean when everybody thinks of democracy in 1776 they think oh Greek city states
those are really unstable tiny yeah and and or or they think well democracy yeah
of course it can work if if you know if it is a city state as unstable as they
are and part of the genius of the argument was that no actually you know you can create a republic which will be
and they called it an Empire um and that actually the extent of it
and the variety of the people in it and all that would help so let me let me
shift things a little bit and this is I'm walking on thin ice here but have
you had any of those conversations which begin with somebody saying look I really
hate Trump but no I have not had any of those
conversations well I'm sure you have so so do
tell you run in more close-minded circles than I do I'm absolutely sure of
it yeah well I no I have had some um and
they are over things like uh the end of Dei um which I think is actually you
know I'm signed up for that too uh I mean having having seen up close how those bureaucracies functioned
in the academic world um you know the kind of frontal assault on identity
politics that that's fine with me uh I will give the devil his due I
think on Gaza you know of course he characteristically blew blew himself up
but he I think he did actually get a deal which brought a few of the host Israeli hostages back
actually more by threatening Netanyahu than than uh Hamas because he doesn't
really have anything to threaten Hamas with um and you can even say that his
utterly outlandish you know wrongheaded uh inhumane immoral
illegal um War criming statement that well War crime okay you know take out
your thesaurus uh I'll mash it against mine um you know he's at least
recognizing the man magnitude of the problem that you have in Gaza which is you know as you and I have discussed you
know having seen that firsthand it is it is devastating you know it's interesting
that he said that economic sanctions on Russia are at three out of
10 uh in intensity and you know the other this is just a little thing um in
the clutching and straws Department we we just just flew a rivet joint
aircraft about 140 kilm from Crimea so rivet joint is a manned aircraft it's
our premium signals intelligence collector it's usually escorted by
fighter jets and I may be mistaken but I don't think we've done that since the
Invasion the Biden Administration was they at one point I think they even pulled back some of the unmanned systems
that we've been flying in kmia to have done that you know I suspect that that's
trying to muscle them a bit in any case I actually um I I've never thought that
they he was simply going to dump Ukraine um I think he may be some kind
of crazy you know he may have in mind some crazy deal with you know lithium and you
know rarus and stuff like that but um you know um he's he's been so far
he's been better on that than I I would have expected I mean again in in the uh I
love Trump but uh Department um I don't know if you saw this article by our
mutual friend Richard danig in the Washington Post so this former Secretary of the Navy in the Clinton
Administration uh I think it was Clinton administration saying yep well I I actually wouldn't mind if those Doge
people would you know tackle the Pentagon acquisition system so now of course I should just explain to our
listeners that my personal view is that Those whom the gods would make mad they first get interested in reforming the
defense Department's acquisition system but I know it's a subject that's near and dear to your heart Eric so perhaps
you could hold forth on that one so well let me let me start at the end there about Richard's article in the post
about you know Doge getting into um the um interstices of the Pentagon and
reforming the um much deservedly maligned procurement
system so um first Richard's a very smart guy um and very
thoughtful uh and I agree that um you know if there is one area where it would be helpful you know to to reform the
system uh it is in you know Pentagon procurement in fact that is the grain of
a lot of the um a lot of the recommendations we made
in the National defense strategy commission that I co-chaired with Jane Haron but I I worry though that about a
couple of things one is you know the president said the other day that you know doge is going to tackle DOD and
both he and uh Heth secretary Heth have said there's hundreds of billions of
dollars they're going to find in waste well having looked at this you know very
carefully not only in this commission but in its three predecessors uh and we had in one of the three
predecessor commissions uh all the really
um uh you know expert folks who've looked at this and who think there is
lots of money to be gained by reforming different elements of the Pentagon the
highest number we could get from any of them about okay what what what's the
order of magnitude of savings you're talking talking about here it was $150 billion over 10 years
yeah which is not what they're talking about it's not what they're talking about and and and um it it's not enough
to you know do what we need to do as a nation um you know even if you took all
those savings 15 billion a year and you know plowed them back into the the
building you know to to buy the kinds of things we would like to see them buy you know
Etc and that would be if you were doing a good faith effort you know I I don't have much confidence that uh you know
Elon who has um you know invade against the um the F35 for instance you know
look the F-35 is an aircraft that's got its limits on the other hand the Israelis have just proven how valuable
valuable an aircraft that is because it was the you know lead element and um the
very successful raid they launched after the October Iranian missile attack on on
Israel so you know I'm afraid he'll go after a lot of the wrong things I mean one of the reason they'll go after F-35
is because there's a big bucket of money there uh for procurement of F35 because it's a hundred million dollars a copy
and so they'll instead of saying look what we need to do is augment you know F35 with a lot of Cheaper atable systems
as the force is trying to do which is h i mean which is happening a lot of those programs are right there so that's
that's one thing but let me just let me just finish on that uh because the the
the other element of this is that um you can't break the system while you're
trying to you know uh reform it I mean I think that is a very bad you know
approach to doing this and that's what you know elon's approach is and then finally the man is
massively conflicted I mean he he's got you know billions of dollars in SpaceX
contracts with elements of the Department of Defense and the intelligence Community how how is that
not going to end up being a you know conflict of interest that is you know which only he can resolve according to
the White House I'll get back to you on on you know um you know the statesmanship in Gaza and Ukraine in a
minute but go ahead no I I I I guess you know what strikes me what strick me
about the piece uh as you say Richard is a very smart very thoughtful guy there's
no question where his heart is he's a sort of a center Democrat and it's it's an echo of
something that I heard the first time that Trump ran in 2015 from very sophisticated
professional I knew was a doctor not a not in our world so well you know maybe it's about time
that somebody shook things up and and you know it is curious that that I me in
a way that was I mean Richard was wrote a much more sophisticated version of
that argument but but there was an argument there that you know things really need shaking up and and I think
that is part of what is carrying Trump along that an enormous number of people
want to see things shaken up and you know as I was saying you know
I I I think it behooves us to understand well what did they want to have shaken up and and why the somebody else who
wrote I thought a very good piece about this was Tyler Cowan this you know very interesting polymath um at George Mason
who said that he thinks that you know what what Trump really cracked was that this is basically about
a cultural conflict and that so many of the things he does are in way sending signals
about um sort of a pretty large and deep culture War over a whole range of issues
and that's what people like about him and that's the source of his appeal you
know I'm sure there's more to with than that but but I thought that that's there's a lot to be said for that interpretation I I do want to get us to
talk about fore policy though because I mean here it I in some ways I am baffled
you know like on Gaza for example I I think it's indisputable he recognizes the magnitude of the problem Gaza is a
complete and total wreck two-state solution is really not in the cards
anytime in the foreseeable future um but then he has a completely
crazy idea we're going to move all the Gins out to Saudi Arabia or puntland or
Egypt or Jordan and we're going to redevelop it and it is like you know the lunacy of his ideas about Greenland
about Panama about Canada and and it's they're so crazy
that they're self-destructive at a certain level um at least that's how it seems to
me and and so I I find it hard to understand what's going on there I mean because it at first I thought okay this
is just him sort of flim flamming people distracting them getting them off balance trolling them but now there's a
piece of me no he actually may be serious about some of this but what's your view so my experience with you know
um elected you know senior officials presidents vice presidents Etc is that
when they get there um they don't change you know who they are they they become
more of what they've always been and in Trump's case the man's formative experiences have been as a real estate
developer and he sees the world through that lens and it's location location
location um and I think he's dead serious about all of this um you know as as U I've
thought that since the beginning um this is as Justin Trudeau has you
know said you know um on on a you know hot mic privately he thought um
you know um Trump's serious about this he he thinks you know Canada should
become the 51st state and
um he uh Trump reiterated it uh to Brett Bear last night in his uh you know Super
Bowl pre Super Bowl interview um and uh same with Greenland and I
think now with Gaza I mean it it is kind of uh you know crazy I me because he first of all he's his staff are telling
everybody well we're not going to spend any American money on this or put boots on the ground but he's saying we're
going to buy it and own it and you know then rebuild it and he he says well I haven't decided whether I'm going to put
boots on the ground well if he actually bought it which I mean I don't even know how you would do that but um he would
have to put boots on the ground because there's no other way to secure it so um
and already I think there are some you know uh Ram ifications to all this I'm I'm sure this is all pulsing through
jihadist uh you know networks online for recruiting uh
purposes um you look I think he thinks the path to Greatness his path you know
not only to a Nobel Peace Prize but to Mount Rushmore is to you double the size
of the United States the way you know Thomas Jefferson did with the Jeff with the Louisiana
Purchase and um you know I think his staff is going to spend the rest of
their four years trying to you know maneuver this into something where they
can actually you know find use in it and yes as you say I mean what he said is
about Gaza is um you know a recognition of how you
know you know completely everything else that's been tried there has failed you know okay fair enough um but the people
who've been most pleased by this is you know the extrem rightwing in Israel who
think this is just great because they're committed to removing the Palestinian population Ergo that you know no problem
after that yeah no I agree um How likely
do you think it is that he will actually get us into a war well you mean
inadvertently or advertently I mean I I think actually he uh is you know
very um disinclined to use military force um and we've seen that in his
first term and you've seen it in the comments he made when he signed the executive order on Iran you know he made
made a point that um you know he
um you would much prefer to negotiate and have a deal with Iran than to go
down any of the military paths and he's also tweeted or truthed on Truth social
that um that the reports that the US and and Israel are going to collaborate in
bombing Iran into Smither as he said are greatly exaggerated now of course that
that formulation you know leaves open the possibility may be exaggerated but at least they've been discussions going
on so you know it's not a not a completely happy message for the supreme
leader but um but I think he's very reluctant to do that what what I do
think Could Happen though is we could get into a conflict because of misperceptions and uh miscommunication I
think that is very you know there's a huge potential for that and in particular I worry that a lot of the
back and forth and the tariffs and the alienating of allies and whatnot could come back to roost uh if xianping
decides he wants to you know U that he wakes up and decides this is the day he wants to reunify uh China and bring
Taiwan back into the fold yeah I I mean I I agreee with that and I look do
think uh I I have always thought and maybe I'm just clinging to this that we
will make it through this period which will be disruptive which I think will actually
yield some positive things but mainly is quite negative I mean if we strengthen
our constitutional system if we kind of Escape identity politics bunch of other things would be
good but I just think the international wreckage is going to be
terrible uh and I don't and I think um it's going to it is going to be
a real challenge how do you think about you know how does American conduct itself in a world where people really no
longer trust our leadership and they no longer uh give us any kind of moral
Authority I mean now you know truth is people have always exaggerated the extent to which you know people than
Americans thought of us as a uh beacon on a hill
um but still we did have a certain moral Authority and this guy is blowing it and
in some ways once and for all because you know the first time around you could say it was an accident nobody knew
second time around you can't say any of this is an accident you know we we clearly knew what we were doing and we
gave him a conclusive Victory you know I think uh
that is certainly one you know possible world that we may be you know moving
into um perhaps the most likely one on the other hand you know you mentioned
Michael Beckley and I I we do need to get Michael on I mean he is he has been writing for some time about
um he wrote a book called unrivaled and he's written for some time in a vein that I you know wrote about earlier
about with regard to us um Primacy and and uh the way it's being
contested now and he basically argues that you know the United States Still Remains exceptional
economically uh it still has enormous you know sources of power that nobody else has in the International
System um it's you know ironic that his article appeared roughly around the same
time that Marco Rubio said oh you know we got to get over it we're not you know not not living in a unipolar world
anymore more which is fair enough but you know Marco makes it sound like we're now back in the 19th century you know
and it's just competing imperialism um so I I kind of take all
that you know but you know look one thing that's Remains the case I
think uh our allies whether in Asia or in Europe have great difficulty
organizing anything themselves yes we have been the convening power and the
organizing power and I think if we get an admin and one of the Biden administration's great strengths
actually and you know God knows you've heard me criticize them for the last four years but one of their great
strengths was um you know doing a pretty good job of organizing the Allies to
provide assistance to Ukraine even if it wasn't enough or fast enough and we have criticism of that um but also the Asian
allies you know in terms of OAS and the quad and various other things at trilateral with uh Japan and and the
Republic of Korea so you know we uniquely can provide the organizing organizing framework for all that
because of our military and economic Global reach no one else can do it so I
you know I think if you provide that service again in the future there's a chance that maybe you bring some will
never be you know all the way back but you can bring a lot of the sort of authority and you know gravitas of the
US in the system back I think so let me both agree and disagree you know I think
the it'll be easier in Asia where the I think the Asian states have always had a very transactional they they can deal
with the transactional United States um for the Europeans it's harder
they've got their own set of challenges but I think
um so you know look one of the minor transgressions but still a pretty severe
transgression of this Administration is Trump Delights in taking away the security clearances of everybody from
Joe Biden to Jake Sullivan to Tony blink and he hasn't gotten around to you yet but I'm sure you're on the list um and
it's at one level people might say well that's doesn't really make a difference well actually for some people it makes a
financial difference because it means you can't sit on you know corporate boards uh that that do business with the
government but there's a deeper thing which is you know we were able to navigate our
way through World War II up to the very recent past by having a foreign policy National
Security Elite which was more or less bipartisan where people spoke with each
other people were at least superficially polite with each other uh you know we've all been at
those kinds of gatherings and we all complain about them but you know at the end of the day it's it that was a good
thing I find it inconceivable that when the Democrats come back that there won't be
payback I mean I I I would suspect you know Mike Walt should not expect to keep
his net his security clearances one day longer than a republican Administration
and certainly most of the staffers the you know the under secretaries the assistant secretaries many of whom
really are trumpers uh through and through they're going to find out that the wheel
turns and uh uh they will have made themselves sufficiently unpleasant in a
variety of ways that everybody say yeah that's right you know strip them of their clearances plus there'll be a
whole generation of missing normal Republican foreign policy
National Security people and we both know people who are say in their 40s now
who should be in responsible position positions in government getting groomed
you know for the really uh big jobs uh by having an early go for it well that
that's not happening because you know as I said in an earlier article and as you pointed out in order to get into this
Administration you have to lie you have to say that Trump won um in 2020 and that January 6 wasn't
a insurrectionary riot so that I I think in some way and I
I you know this will sound snoody but societies need Elites and for
sure um if you're talking about something as large and complex as the foreign policy of the United
States you need a cohesive Elite where there's certain shared assumptions and
there's a certain kind of Comedy um and you know you and I have both experienced it uh you know say
somebody like mine Albright was always very gracious to me okay it really didn't make a difference
I think that I was a republican although she did offer to throw a party if I became a Democrat
um but we won't have that and I guess I feel that's consequential don't you I do
and I think I think what they've done is very shortsighted um you know there may well
come a time where they're going to want to consult with people about some problems that they've got where it would be very helpful to them to have a little
bit of bipartisan support and you they've just poisoned the well they've made it
impossible for them I mean as you know there you know there any number of times
in the government where you're confronted with these you know what what um one of my former bosses who was a
secretary of defense said you know most of the decisions that come here are you know if they get to your level My Level
he said they're 51 49 you know go either way you know they're hard the hard ones
um there are times when you've got to make hard decisions and it may not be clear to people outside the government why you're doing
what you're doing and and you need to bring them in and show them um you know
as uh as happened for instance during the Cuban Missile Crisis you know Etc so
um I think it's very shortsighted I think it's you know bad governance you
know frankly um I I always made sure when I was under secretary that you know for
instance Walt slokum who was one of my Democratic predecessors that he you know remained a consultant to the
office of the Secretary of Defense under secretary defense for policy so we could bring him in and have him talk about
stuff K Kennedy made a point of Consulting with Eisenhower yeah uh
Kissinger and Nixon made a point of keeping Johnson thoroughly briefed on what was going on it was just
understood that that's right that's how you behave I I wasn't surprised that you
know Trump uh you know cut Biden off from uh intelligence briefings after all
Biden had done that to him you know in the aftermath of January
6th um I'm sure on the assumption that Trump was you know finished
politically um I was surprised to see them do it to blinkin and and um and Jake Sullivan you
know because that was to me is just gratuitous yeah it's and now what I can't figure out is whether all this is
somehow linked to his sense that he was persecuted over that Russian dossier and
that these guys were part of it or if it's just a kind of a part of a larger plan to really cut off anybody who
disagrees with him um well it's a tool he thinks he has I
think that he can wield because the president does have broad discretion I mean what's ironic about this is
you know you've got people who have devoted themselves to government service for many many years who have been
cleared you know through the normal process uh which is you know pretty exacting having you know gone through it
myself you know many you know over the years and but now You' got all sorts of
people who aren't cleared at all are just being given clearances willy-nilly who have uh connections to Russia
through telegram channels and companies they own and this that and the other thing and uh and these other people are
getting their clearances pulled I mean it's really um it's really appalling honestly
yeah well there'll be plenty to talk about I'm afraid um um I do want to get back
to Ukraine before we wrap up and we we are running short on time and and and there was one final issue I wanted to
touch on with you so on Ukraine we had um while you were vacationing in Spain
with your family we had um uh our SC colleague Eugene finlon talking about
his uh very good book on Russia and Ukraine I guess I'll repeat something I
said you know with Eugene about you know my kind of sense of uh kind of where
Trump is and it's informed a little bit by things that I heard last week from people
um so my sense is number one Trump has been repeatedly briefed by people that
Xin ping and but certainly Putin are trying to play him and then he needs to be careful not to be played because I
think those people rightly understand that Trump does not like the idea that he's
being played by anybody um and that's probably a useful thing uh he's also
been briefed I think extensively on uh Russia's weaknesses
economically and his comments clearly reflect the fact that he is in you know internalized that and that um if there's
anything he understands it's leverage and that you know this is something that gives him leverage with with Putin and
that's all to the good um he's also
internalized um what um was in uh a very
good oped by our friend General Jack Keane and Mark T of of AEI in the post a couple of
weeks ago which was that you know additional Aid to Ukraine can and should be provided collateralized by Future
access to Ukrainian uh raw materials whether it's oil and gas or Rare Earth minerals about
you know of which uh Ukraine has you know quite a bit um and
you know that's also in been part of uh zelinsky's Victory plan it's something I
think zalinsky talked to him about when they met in the fall and zilinsky just reiterated it uh in an interview he gave
with Reuters over over the weekend that is all to the good
um what I worry about is when you hear you know General Kellogg talk about this
it also is mixed in with other things like uh well first we have to have
elections in Ukraine you know because they haven't had them because Ukraine's under martial law and then we can get
down to the business of negotiating and so a lot is going to depend on how these various steps get sequenced like
additional sanctions elections in Ukraine ceasefire
negotiations Etc and I worry a little bit um I'm not sure how well they've
thought through the sequencing of all this and I worry a little bit that there will be there certainly going to be some
in the administration who just want to get rid of this problem and therefore their idea is going to be let's you know
let's elect a Putin friendly government in keev and then you know we'll negotiate and problem
solved yeah I think maybe although I you know my reading of this uh for what it's worth is I think uh Trump really wants
the Nobel Peace Prize think he he has to be irritated that Obama got it after was
it like four days and off office or something um and I agree with absolutely with you
know your assessment of his disl being played I think that he thinks the Russians are weak I think he he is aware
of how people have always described his relationship to Putin and he's going to show them that they're wrong uh the
Russians are weak you know they have not been able to make uh advances the ukrainians have
actually taken a bit more out of KK um there's actually a l lot of indications that economically they're in
trouble one thing that's quite interesting is the Russians are are putting on this kind of big uh information Blitz to tell everybody that
their economy is doing just great and actually I was on another TV show with a
Russian immigrate so to speak who was basically trying to say no no no the Russian economy is very strong and I you
know it doesn't make any sense to me um
I do think he wants to he's going to go for a big deal I I think it is such an intricate intricate problem in some ways
I don't think any sequencing would you know make a huge difference I do think
what's going to happen is he'll try he I think he has a vision of how of how this
thing ends basically ceasefire in place uh policed by the Europeans but with an
American guarantee uh that's sort of in the background and you know various other
things um I think Russ Putin doesn't want that
uh I don't know that he's been brought around so I think actually what we're likely to see is that we muscle the
Russians uh I think the rivet joint thing was a signal uh at least partly
because we haven't we really haven't done that in a long time and it's it's saying you know don't you dare try
anything and I think the sanctions talk was revealing too so I would not be at all surprised if we ratchet that stuff
up and I don't know whether Putin will back down over those things
because as imperfect as Donald Trump's grip of the world is I'm not sure
Vladimir Putin's is any better I mean I tend to think that he you know the information that he's getting makes him
think that he's still winning this war um so I think there this is actually
headed to some sort of some sort of crisis
How It Ends I I don't know although I think at the end of the day it will look something like a ceasefire in place and
you know security guarantees of some sort not NATO membership but a a Ukraine
that can develop and look given where we thought this was going to be it it's unsatisfactory it's
unfair um but given where we thought this was going to
be yeah I mean I I I find it hard to believe that Putin is
going to relent I mean I think he wants to just extrap Pate Ukraine and and I don't think he's accept anything less
but before we close out um I just had ask you one quick question about that
great and good Statesman Donald Trump um so you know Donald Trump has made it
clear that we're full up we can't take any more refugees we don't need any more immigration Etc but he just signed a
executive order um about South Africa and said oh we will take white South
Africans if they want to immigrate because they're being treated so poorly in um majority rule South Africa today
and I just just throwing that out there and wonder what your take is on that first I think a lot of this is Elon
Musk um you know his father and I think his grandfather actually had some
pretty um ugly connections and Views coming out of
uh right-wing africom um I
think you know look there is there is an issue of sort of how the africanas are
surviving in in South Africa as it is today but I think it's another example
of self harm and it's what goes back to why at the end of the day you know I
don't think this guy is nearly as clever as Orban I you know Orban is a very smart guy Orban reads lots of books I
actually met met him very early on when he was still supposed to be a good guy he's a very smart
fellow um I met him while he was transitioning into being a bad
guy only one half of the face was covered with scales and uh one-handed claws I I think um you
know look part of what he was part of what Trump was able to do was
to convince a lot of African-Americans that he was better for
them and that he wasn't a racist now is this you know of itself
going to turn things around no but it's an example of of being kind of Reckless about some of this stuff and not
thinking through you know how if if I do a a may lead to B and B will probably
lead to C and that leads to D is not a good thing for me I just don't think he he thinks that way and therefore I think
a lot of the people around him don't don't think that way I I you know I think in many ways a more significant
thing is he's deciding to have a bunch of tariff Wars with all kinds of people
which are going to hurt his voters or you know Elon Musk is going to go charging through and say oh we can cut
billions and billions and billions from Medicaid right right yeah we're 75
million Americans get their healthare yeah I mean I I look do I want
to put my faith uh for the future of the great Republic on Donald Trump's
infinite capacity for self harm no but but I think you know the the
worried listeners of Shield of the Republic can take some comfort in the fact that you know
he really does screw a lot of stuff up and you know as you say because presidents tend to become more of what
they were before he's going to screw more stuff up feel better well well you know um as
you say we we range all the way in our opinion on on children of the Republic from you know Gloom to to doom and this
week I think we've inclined more maybe a little bit to the Gloom side so you know
I you know I think you should take your victories where you can yeah okay I'll deal with that
that'll have to do it for this episode we'll be back next week