HUGE! US Troops ‘FLEE’ Key Base in Arab Nation; Patriot Missiles Pulled as Iran Vows DEADLY Revenge
Times Of India
Jul 31, 2026 #iran #iraq #erbil
The United States has reportedly removed all Patriot air-defence batteries from its compound near Erbil International Airport and begun withdrawing its last declared troops and heavy equipment from Iraq. Regional officials describe the pullout as a scheduled move consistent with Washington’s agreement to leave by September 30. However, the withdrawal comes as Erbil and the surrounding Kurdistan Region face sustained Iranian and militia missile and drone attacks. Sources claim the Patriot systems intercepted at least 95 percent of incoming threats, protecting American forces as well as nearby Kurdish facilities and civilians. With those batteries now redeployed to an undisclosed location, Kurdish officials fear they have been left exposed while Washington prioritises bases in Jordan and the Gulf. Officially, America is completing an agreed mission. Strategically, Iran and its allies may portray the withdrawal as proof that sustained pressure forced Washington to retreat. Watch.
Transcript
America is stripping away its missile defenses and pulling its last troops out of Iraq as Iranian attacks intensify, turning what Washington calls a scheduled withdrawal into something that increasingly resembles a retreat under fire. The US military has begun withdrawing forces and heavy equipment from its compound near Bill International Airport in Iraq's Kurdistan region. According to well-placed sources cited by Al Monitor, most significantly, all American Patriot air defense batteries stationed at the compound have already been removed and transferred to an undisclosed location. The pullout reportedly [music] began last week.
The majority of US personnel and heavy equipment have now left, although some defensive systems remained at [music] the facility at the time of publication. US Central [music] Command declined to comment on active troop movements. Regional officials insist withdrawal [music] is routine and consistent with an agreement between Washington and Baghdad requiring the last [music] declared American forces to leave Iraq by September 30th. But the timing tells a more uncomfortable [music] story.
Air Bill and the surrounding Kurdish region have faced sustained Iranian and militia drone [music] and missile attacks since the USIsraeli war against Iran began in February. The American compound at the airport has itself been targeted repeatedly. Sources claimed the Patriot systems intercepted at least 95% of the [music] incoming threats, creating a defensive umbrella that protected not only American troops, but also Kurdish facilities and civilians in the surrounding area. With those [music] batteries now gone, Kurdish officials fear they have been left dangerously exposed while Iranian [music] strikes continue.
One source described the Pentagon's apparent calculation bluntly. Iraqi Kurdistan is no longer the priority. American bases in Jordan and the Gulf come first. The withdrawal also follows more than two decades of American military presence in Iraq.
At the height of the 2003 [music] occupation, Washington deployed more than 170,000 troops. Fewer than 200 [music] reportedly remained before the final draw down began. Washington may continue intelligence cooperation and retain [music] special forces at discrete undeclared locations, but the visible American military footprint and the defensive shield surrounding it is disappearing. Officially, this is an orderly withdrawal completed [music] according to an agreed timetable.
Strategically, however, Iran and its allies will see a different picture. Repeated attacks made American positions increasingly costly to defend. Patriot missiles became scarce and [music] Washington chose to remove both the troops and the protection surrounding them. The United States says it is completing its mission in Iraq.
Iran may claim it has [music] demonstrated something far more consequential, that sustained pressure can [music] force America to decide which allies it can still afford to defend. [music] Northern Iraq has been hit by a dramatic new wave of drone strikes after the region's [music] largest gas field came under attack despite a fragile calm on other fronts in the [music] West Asia. The strategically vital Corore gas field, the largest [music] natural gas facility in Iraq's Kurdish region, was struck in a late [music] night drone attack. according to Iranian state media sending shock waves through one of [music] the country's most important energy hubs located in Sullemania [music] province.
The core Morfield supplies natural gas to most power plants across the Kurdish region making it a critical pillar of [music] northern Iraq's electricity network and economic stability. The attack unfolded around the [music] same time multiple explosions were reported in Herbiel, nearly 200 km away, [music] with local and Iranian media claiming that at least seven blasts echoed across the city, including in areas near the [music] US consulate. Reports quoting police sources [music] said that several suspected drones targeted infrastructure sites in the Khaulifon and Saurin [music] areas northeast of her bill, prompting security forces to respond as videos of [music] the explosions spread rapidly across social media. The latest strikes come at a highly sensitive moment after US President [music] Donald Trump declared that Washington remains prepared to launch very strong military action against Iran if diplomatic [music] efforts fail despite temporarily pausing planned strikes to allow negotiations to continue.
[music] The coordinated attacks on critical energy infrastructure are expected to heighten concerns over regional [music] stability with investigators now working to determine who launched the drones and whether the strikes [music] were part of a wider coordinated operation. As northern Iraq assesses the damage [music] to one of its most important gas facilities, the latest drone assault is likely to [music] intensify fears that the region's vital energy infrastructure has become the newest front in an increasingly volatile geopolitical [music] confrontation. Northern Iraq has been rocked by a fresh wave of drone strikes after multiple drones targeted US allied Iranian Kurdish opposition groups near Airbil, triggering powerful explosions and raising fears of a dangerous new escalation in the region. Several explosions echoed across Iraq's Kurdistan region after multiple drones struck areas near Air Bill during the early hours of Tuesday, sending security forces into high alert and prompting widespread concern over the rapidly evolving situation.
Reports indicate [music] that more than seven explosions were heard across northern Iraq, while local media claimed the strikes targeted key locations, including radar installations, opposition headquarters, and areas close to the US consulate in Air Bill. Although the extent of the damage remains under assessment, according to officials from the Kurdistan Democratic Party of Iran, a drone struck [music] the Jesan camp in the Baraka area north of Airbil, causing material damage without any reported casualties, while separate UAV attacks also targeted the Komala party headquarters in the Alana Valley. Social media videos circulating online claimed that facilities linked to Iranian Kurdish opposition groups were engulfed in flames, although these visuals have not been independently verified. In a parallel development, reports said the US-led global coalition activated its air defense systems, intercepting one drone over air bill and shooting down three more near the [music] Iranian border in the Saron district before they could reach their intended targets.
The coordinated [music] drone attacks come amid heightened regional tensions and are likely to intensify security concerns along the Iraq Iran frontier where Iranian Kurdish opposition groups have repeatedly faced crossber military operations. A drone has reportedly targeted a US military base in Eril, Iraq, one of Washington's most important strategic sites in the Middle East. Video shared by Tarsnim News Agency showed drones hitting the American base in the Iraqi city. The authenticity or date [music] cannot be independently verified.
The Urbil base has long served as a key hub for US military operations in Iraq and the broader [music] region. It has repeatedly been targeted by rockets and drones during the war. On Friday, at least seven explosions were reported near the base in Erville. m.
local time on Friday, according to an Associated Press journalist [music] in the area who heard the blasts. Iran's military has said it paused retaliatory strikes after the US forces did the same.
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ON CAM: Iran BLOWS UP Military Bases Of Israel-Linked Fighters In U.S. Ally Nation | WATCH
Times Of India
Jul 30, 2026 #erbil #iraq #iran
A massive explosion has rocked Erbil, the capital of Iraq's Kurdistan Region, after what reports describe as a kamikaze drone strike. Dramatic videos circulating online appear to show a huge fireball lighting up the night sky as anti-aircraft guns attempt to intercept the incoming drone. RT reported that the drone struck the headquarters of a Kurdish opposition group, while some reports claimed Iran was behind the attack. The latest strike comes amid escalating tensions in northern Iraq, following recent drone attacks near the US Consulate and growing warnings from Tehran to Kurdish leaders. As regional tensions intensify, fears of a wider Middle East conflict continue to mount.
Transcript
Explosions rocked [music] US military host Air, the capital of Iraq's Kurdistan region, [music] lighting up the night sky and sending shock waves across the city, the region, and beyond. Unverified videos circulating online appeared to show a massive fireball erupting, followed by thick plumes of smoke rising from a residential neighborhood. The footage also captured the sound of [music] what appeared to be a drone slicing through the night sky moments before crashing into its alleged target. Anti-aircraft guns could be heard firing in an apparent attempt to [music] intercept the incoming drone, but within seconds a powerful explosion ripped through the area, triggering [music] panic among nearby residents.
Russia Today RT reported that a kamicazi drone struck the headquarters of a Kurdish opposition group in northern Iraq. Some media reports also claimed that Iran was behind the deadly strike, though there has been no official [music] confirmation. The latest attack came just days after a series of explosions shook Air, including areas near the US consulate amid reports of Iranian drone activity across northern Iraq. According to Al Jazzer, at least four Iranian drones targeted Halifon and Sauron districts northeast of Airbiel.
The strikes reportedly [music] sparked large fires in and around the targeted areas while police said two drones crashed near their intended targets. The escalation follows a report by Al-Myadin claiming that Washington has been pressuring leaders in Iraq's Kurdistan region to join the conflict against Thran. The report alleged that the Trump administration warned Kurdish leaders that refusing to cooperate [music] could jeopardize the region's existing political and governing arrangements. Thran has also issued a direct warning to Kurdish leaders, cautioning them against becoming involved in the conflict [music] or supporting separatist or anti-government activities.
According to Al-Myadin's correspondent, Iran warned that any participation in the war would invite a direct military response. The report further claimed that Thran threatened to send ground forces into Iraq's Kurdistan region if its leadership became actively involved in the conflict. For Thran, the Kurdish issue remains one of its most sensitive national security concerns. Several Iranian Kurdish opposition groups operate from bases inside Iraq's Kurdistan region.
Iran accuses these organizations of supporting separatist and anti-government activities and has repeatedly targeted their positions with crossber missile, drone, and artillery strikes. During the recent 40-day conflict, Iran reportedly launched nearly 700 missiles and drones toward the Kurdistan region, underscoring the growing volatility along one of the Middle East's most sensitive frontiers. Northern Iraq has been rocked by a fresh wave of drone strikes after multiple drones targeted US allied Iranian Kurdish opposition groups near Airbil, triggering powerful explosions and raising fears of a dangerous new escalation in the region. Several explosions echoed across Iraq's Kurdistan region after multiple drones struck areas near Air Bill during the early hours of Tuesday, sending security forces into high alert and prompting widespread concern over the rapidly evolving situation.
Reports indicate that more than seven explosions were heard across northern Iraq. While local media claimed the strikes targeted key locations, including radar installations, opposition headquarters, and areas close to the US consulate in Airbil, although the extent of the damage remains under assessment. According to officials from the Kurdistan Democratic Party of Iran, a drone struck the Jesan camp in the Baraka area north of Airbil, causing material damage without any reported casualties, while separate UAV attacks also targeted the Komala party headquarters in the Alana Valley. Social media videos circulating online claimed that facilities linked to Iranian Kurdish opposition groups were engulfed in flames, although these visuals have not been independently verified.
In a parallel development, reports said the US-led [music] global coalition activated its air defense systems, intercepting one drone over air bill and shooting down three more near the Iranian border in the Suron district before they could reach their intended targets. The coordinated drone attacks come amid heightened regional tensions and are likely to intensify security concerns along the Iraq Iran frontier [music] where Iranian Kurdish opposition groups have repeatedly faced crossber military operations. [music] A drone has reportedly targeted a US military base in Urbil, Iraq, one of Washington's most important strategic sites in the Middle East. Video shared by Tarsnim News Agency showed drones hitting the American base in the Iraqi city.
The authenticity or date [music] cannot be independently verified. The Urbil base has long served as a key [music] hub for US military operations in Iraq and the broader region. It has repeatedly been targeted [music] by rockets and drones during the war. On Friday, at least seven explosions were reported [music] near the base in Urbil.
m. local time on Friday. According to an Associated Press journalist in the area who heard the blasts, Iran's military has said it paused retaliatory strikes after the US forces did the same. From about 2 weeks ago, the Americans violated the Islamabad memorandum of understanding and created a fabricated and illegal route south of the Straight of Hormuz for the passage of ships.
Since this illegal route was contrary to article 5 of the Islamabad memorandum, we responded swiftly and did not allow the route that the Americans were trying to establish and consolidate to become entrenched. As a result, a confrontation began between us and the Americans that lasted about 15 days during which we faced US attacks and acts of aggression at nights particularly along the country's southern coastal belt. While US President Donald Trump reiterated his claim that talks with Iran were going off well, [music] Thran last Friday said that Washington needed to change its position [music] on mediation. What is the exit strategy?
Well, I think there's a lot of them. There's a military exit where we just keep going just the way we are and we can even make it a heavier dose and it's uh knocking out everything they have. or there's a smarter strategy and that's you make a deal and they want to make a deal. I just don't think they're ready yet, but they do want to make a deal.
Sometimes they don't want to say they want to make a deal. They want to be the tough guys, but they do want to make a deal. There's two ways. I mean, it's uh you can just uh keep doing exactly what we're doing and take them apart piece by piece.
We could do it in a more rapid fashion, which we might do, or we can negotiate with them, which we're also doing right now. I mean, as we speak, we're talking to them. As I have said before, there is currently no problem regarding mediation between Iran and the United States. Mediators exist, messages are being exchanged, and each side's views are being communicated to the other.
The real problem is the United States approach, which remains one of bullying and coercion. The Islamic Republic of Iran has shown we are not afraid of threats. We will not bow to pressure, nor will we tolerate unacceptable language. We have a principled policy and we will continue to pursue it.
Protecting the interests of the Iranian people, safeguarding their rights, and defending Iran's rights in the Straight of Hormuz and the Persian Gulf region are among our fundamental principles and objectives. We will continue to pursue them. We fear no one and we will not retreat in the face of any threat.
PART 3 ANTI-ANTI-NAZI BARBARIAN HORDES ARE KNOCKING DOWN THE
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Iran Missiles STRONGER THAN ORESHNIKs /MIT Professor TED POSTOL
Daniel Davis / Deep Dive
Streamed live on Jul 30, 2026
Transcript
President Trump threatened to kick the effing s out of Iran because they were misbehaving and weren't doing doing what he told them to do. Uh we're going to see just exactly how effective that's going to be. But there's also some additional issues. Not only are we running short on interceptor missiles of all different types, running short on offensive missiles.
Turns out the Iranian side is starting to expose additional and newer capability missiles, which could cause us even more trouble than we're already in. And to try and knock that down, we go to our go-to guy, our MIT professor, Ted Postol, uh, national security expert, like I could certainly call him, former MIT professor. Uh, Ted, welcome back to the show. Always a delight to have you here.
Well, don't don't call me too much of an expert. I am an academic after all, and given what I say about academics, some may apply to me. Well, all the things you've said on our show have pretty much been validated over many years. So, I'm going to keep that title on there for you.
Okay. All right. [clears throat] I I want to get right into this though because even before I get to some of the details I just mentioned at the at the outset here, President Trump yesterday made an kind of an eyeopening or an eyebrow raising claim about how we intercepted all of the missiles that came from the Iranian side into our base in Jordan. Here's how he put it.
We're going to be hitting them very hard because it's our turn to hit them. They know it's coming. They're asking us not to do it, but uh you know, they tried shooting it last night. So, we had five rockets shot going 8,500 miles an hour and all five rockets were knocked down to the ground, but they nevertheless took a shot.
So, it's our turn. And we'll see if we get there with an agreement at some point, but we're going to hit them very hard. So, there. What do you say that five five missiles at 8,000 miles an hour?
Um did we knock them down? Uh well I I don't have the data but I doubt the president has any data too or in fact even the contractor has data. The the evidence is that maybe one or two% of the Patriot Pack 3es assuming they were PC 3es fired uh are actually able to intercept ballistic missiles. So, so basically if you assume for example that it's one in a 100 um the uh the possibility of um of impacting uh uh the uh of hitting a warhead which is pretty much close to what we're seeing.
Then um since they're five, it's it's the chances that they would have hit all five is roughly one in 10 billion given what we know. So uh if if he's saying that a 1 in 10 billion event uh probability of one in 10 billion event occurred then I guess I don't know we can take it at face value but it's it really doesn't make much uh doesn't seem highly probable. [laughter] Yeah. Yeah.
We'll we'll we'll call that one in the questionable category until we can get some proof one way or the other. Uh one of the things I really was eager to have you on the show here today. we saw it and unfortunately I don't have the that full screen uh video here uh handy but there was a claim made by some Americans that were on the ground in uh and I think it was actually in Jordan where we suffered some casualties recently both killed and wounded in action and they say one of the big problems that they had is that our uh radar that we had showed incoming and then it tells you where the thing is supposed to land and so that allows people to get ready and all of a sudden the missiles start maneuvering which was a capability we didn't know Iran had and that was causing real problems for the humanities just to even respond to them. Can you tell us anything about what kind of missiles he's talking about?
And should we be worried? Oh, we definitely should be very worried. Uh I'm surprised these guys have only figured this out now. I mean, I I've been talking about this for months.
Uh I even I'm not prepared for this at the moment, but next time I'm on it only take s of video. I have video showing showing these warheads maneuvering. So, uh we know the war. In fact, uh I'll be talking about uh you know, we'll have a few minutes for slides.
I know you want to limit that, but uh I'll just show you with some slides one of their maneuvering warheads. And it does maneuver uh and uh it's it's unstoppable. And to me, it's extraordinary that these people would first be talking about it. Now, it shows that the the last people to know about things that are known in the open are people who supposedly have access to all this classified information.
And you know, Ched, I mean, we can just look here. The these are some of the uh satellite imagery the US has been trying to block this stuff, but there's still some satellite companies that are putting this stuff out there. These are evidences of the specific targets that the Iranian side has been having with this is these are all American bases that you see on the screen here that have pinpoint targets. So there every time they shoot at something they hit it.
Oh yeah. I think uh what we now know about the uh Iranian missiles is is that first of all they're using uh the uh Chinese uh BU uh navigation system. It's it's sort of a version of the American GPS system, but it can't be jammed. In other words, there's no way to stop them from getting the navigation signals.
And they can also get precise information on their locations while they're traveling through space. So they're on a what's at early in their trajectory, they're on what's called the ballistic trajectory. They're it's governed essentially by the gravit gravitational field of the earth and momentum of the object. And um they can get absolutely you know to to less than a meter accuracy exactly their three-dimensional location over the time of their trajectory.
So their location gets more and more refined. Now when they reach the top of the atmosphere which for our purposes are are is the altitude at which aerodynamics plays some role. uh that's well below 100 kilometers. So um but let's say it's 100 kilometers and um uh they know their p they're positioned to about uh uh one meter of accuracy in three dimensions in one one one meter in three dimensions or or less.
And they have um they have accelerometers on on these devices that can measure uh the acceleration that is not uh due to that is due to atmospheric re-entry and also due to the rocket motor that they turn on on the vehicle. So, so the the precision I was just looking this up last week the because they're commercially available. They're called MEMS, micro electronic uh mechanical sensors and they're tiny things. They're they're what when the drones are flying they have them on them and they're they're ubiquitous.
They're all over the place. So you just buy them highly precise and a very very very conservative estimate is they the inaccuracies from these mems uh introduced during a re-entry process is maybe a few meters. Wow. Few meters.
Now there's what's called the control problem. you know, you're trying to control the orientation of the warhead and every small movement out of what you really would like to get causes you to maneuver. And um so I would say that they probably have a few tens of meters of accuracy at the target, which is very good, especially when you're delivering a warhead. The warhead, I'll show you.
Um, yeah. Delivers the equivalent of about a 4,000 or 5,000 lb explosive at the target. That's an enormous explosive charge. And most of the power of that explosive of that explosion comes from the kinetic energy of impact.
In other words, this thing hits the ground so fast that it just vaporizes. It's it's much it's well beyond, you know, for example, it's traveling at a speed well beyond that of the Orchnic munitions. Wow. Are hitting the ground at maybe 3 kilometers per second.
This thing is hitting the ground at over four kilometers per second. Now 3 kilometers/s gives you the equivalent kinetic energy of uh gives you the equivalent explosive energy of the weight of the munition uh in TNT. In other words, all of this this is not explosion explosion from uh uh explosive materials. It's an explosion from all of this kinetic energy being nearly instantaneously converted uh to kinetic energy from you know the the war the piece of material that hits the ground gets compressed so fast by the interaction with the ground that it superheats to 5,000 6,000 degrees Kelvin temperature of the sun surface and that expands violently outward like an explo explosion.
It is an explosion. Now, when it hits at 4 km/s, that's 4 km divide by 3 km/s. 6. Um, you square that and that gives you the rough equivalent energy in TNT of hitting the ground at a little bit over four kilometers/s, which is about two and a half when you do the arithmetic carefully.
So the weight of the warhead is 1,000 kilograms. So it's say it's 2,000 pounds. You get a a factor. So 2,000 lbs of just non explosive material compressed turned into kinetic energy into an explosion by kinetic energy impact.
So that brings you up to 5,000 pounds of explosive power. Plus, you have a couple of thousand pounds of explosive material in the warhead. So, this thing has the power of a 5,000 or 6,000 pound explosive when it hits the ground. And it does tremendous damage.
And I can show you some of the uh evidence for this. Uh, and let's just look at slide um two. This is the missile itself. It's the Alpha.
And if you look to the right of the missile where you can see the warhead itself, you see a a winged uh vehicle uh that has a very very low drag. So it comes into the atmosphere uh it experiences very minimal aerodynamic drag. And if we look at um slide four slide, let's just go to there we go. You can see that in the back of this warhead, it has a rocket motor.
See the rocket motor is in the forefront and that rocket motor is able to generate a couple of thousand pounds of thrust over time intervals of , , you know, no problem at all. So, so that's during the entire time of re-entry. Now, if we go to slide six, we can actually see this is one of these warheads arriving in Israel. That long bright plume, the front of the You can't see the warhead, but that long bright plume is the rocket motor exhaust.
So, it is accelerating this warhead to enormous speeds. And when that warhead hits the ground, it um it delivers a tremendive tremendous explosive force. You can see the whole sky is lit up from the light. That's the light generated by this enormously high temperatures in the generated by the kinetic energy and the explosion.
That's like four or 5,000 pounds of explosion explosive energy being instantaneously released. And if you look in the next slide, we can even see a powerful shock wave. You can see um an an intense shock wave. You know, this is really an intense explosion to have a visible shock wave generated by the explosion.
So, if you just wanted to get a sense of how much damage uh one of these explosions can do, why don't we just go to slide 13. There we go. Now in in the lower right of 13 I have put in uh blast contours. This is uh Washington DC.
Uh the building in the middle is the is the U Library of Congress. That's a big massive concrete and steel building. And to the right is a neighborhood that's immediately adjacent, you know, just regular buildings. Now, the inner circle, innermost of the uh four circles [clears throat] shows you the 40 pound per square inch um blast range, the the limit of it, all those buildings in that circle will just be simply knocked to the ground.
The buildings will be knocked to the ground. That's how intense the blast wave will be. In the next outer ring, uh the buildings will be extremely severely damaged. Some of them will be knocked to ground.
In the further ring, the five pound per square inch ring. Any building that's wood frame or brick that's not reinforced will also be knocked to the ground. And then the two pound per square inch one at the outer circle would would would knock in uh the interior walls might not knock down the buildings at the 2 lb per square inch point but the interior walls of all inside the buildings will be knocked out by the blast wave that's propagating through the BU building. So this one warhead would essentially eliminate this block of buildings.
Remember the term blockbuster from World War II. This is a blockbuster. Now if we go to the next slide just to make it clear what the effects of multiple warheads would be. All this shows is I've just amplified the first slide by putting three uh detonation areas down and the the one to the left which I assume goes through the roof of the um uh Library of Congress will essentially destroy the whole Library of Congress because if it penetrates into the building, the shock wave will tend to be contained in the blast.
wave will be so intense around that 40 pound per square inch point that all of the internal structure will be destroyed at that point. Other areas of the structure farther away will be severely damaged. So it'll look um it it'll look like uh the building um the uh the mirror building in Oklahoma City. If if the warhead went through the roof, it would look like uh you know, the damage that was done to the building in in in in Oklahoma City by the 10,000 pound bomb or 15,000lb bomb that um was detonated in the terrorist attack in Oklahoma City.
So, this building would be gone for all purposes. the uh uh the third uh detonation point which is shown on on the upper right would destroy that other block. So you'd have two blocks of regularly constructed housing destroyed plus the entire Library of Congress by this um these three postulated warheads hitting at those aim points. Now, think of Tel Aviv being subjected to this.
Can you imagine the damage in Tel Aviv? Because this has been going on a little while. Not every warhead hitting Tel Aviv is one of these. Um Here you go.
You're really quick, Gary. [laughter] But this is the kind of damage that would be done into the inter in the interior o of of the Library of Congress from this warhead that I postulated hitting the Library of Congress. So these are very severe levels of damage. And this is what's been going on in in Tel Aviv.
and the Israelis have been uh um censoring the information from these uh uh attacks. But I can see why uh Netanyahu was telling Trump at one point that he's more worried about the missiles than he is about uh nuclear weapon about the Iranian nuclear weapons which which he's on record saying at various points. So, so this is uh the kind of damage you would see. Uh the shock wave would propagate into the building further.
Of course, where the damage is done, it would have would have destroyed and collapsed all the floors. And this building, there's nothing you can do with this building except tear it down. You know, it's done. So uh this is the kind of damage we can expect as the war goes on in Tel Aviv and Hifa.
If the Iranians start attacking with Tel Aviv and Hifa with Alfata missiles, they will do severe levels of damage but at a lower level per missile if they don't use these rocket accel accelerated warheads. But we're talking about serious damage and this can go on for a very long time because And do do you have any sense for how many of these missiles that we think Iran has? Uh we we really don't know but hundreds of them almost surely thousands of them quite possibly. So hundreds of these things would do tremendous damage, but if they're thousands of them, which we can't rule out, uh, you know, we're talking about real levels of damage that's, uh, you know, you know, to Tel Aviv and Hifa, you know, you could you could end uh the economic uh viability of Israel uh, you know, by destroying, you know, there only a few big cities where almost all the economic activity in Israel is is going on.
So, and is there anything in the cumulative integrated air defense system for for Israel? You're talking about the Iron Dome, David Sling, uh you know, all the different kinds of uh facilities they have, THADs, factories, etc. Is there anything [clears throat] that can defeat those missiles? No.
No. I think uh uh the maneuvering these people for example THAAD if it had a high capability to hit targets and I doubt that but uh let's assume it does it requires um 30 or s to reach an intercept point from launch. Well, in 30 or , a maneuvering warhead only has to maneuver a few meters per second to be well out of range of the THAAD warhead's ability to maneuver and finally hit it. So, if these guys are talking about warheads they see maneuvering at high altitude, the game is over.
FAD has no chance. David Sling has no chance. uh because these higher altitude interceptors take many many tens of seconds to reach the locations where they're going to attempt to hit the incoming missile. And you can't predict where that location is going to be if the missile is able to maneuver.
you can predict where it's going to be if it's on a ballistic trajectory and you know how to predict the location because the trajectory is determined by gravitation and and momentum. But you don't have that in the case of a powered vehicle or a vehicle that has wings on it that can maneuver. So the game is over completely. There's no chance at all they can do anything against these things.
So the big fraud that's been going on for 30, 35 years where they're making all these false claims about capabilities is now exposed. There's going to be no capability at all [clears throat] intercept these things. So let me let me ask you, let's let's uh let's continue on down the path here. There was some claims when when President Trump is claiming that we knocked down all eight of those missiles.
There was additional reporting prior to him making that statement. [laughter] What's that? Sorry. Go ahead.
Uh there were some claims before that that there were some on the United States that said, "Hey, we only had minutes of warning before these things hit. " That is a lot less than what we had been in the past. And I wonder if you can just kind of talk a little bit about uh the presumed damage that has been done because of the radars that Iran has been hitting over the last couple of months especially uh and and what whether we're hitting anything or not. It's reducing our warning time before missiles even hit.
Well, the THAAD radar does have a long range capability and uh our satellites in space can see the launch and we can see the first 60 or s of powered flight because we can see the rocket plume, the exhaust plume. Once the rocket exhaust plume stops, the satellites cannot track. So they but they can do a they can get a crude estimate in 60 or s whether or not for example the particular missile is heading toward Israel. They cannot tell they cannot predict on this early data whether it's going to whether the missile is going to land in Hifa or Tel Aviv or Beersa or somewhere else.
So they don't have enough uh impact point prediction from the satellites but the THAD radar can take over at that point and I don't know if there is a THAD radar yet working uh all five of the THAD radars were destroyed uh early in the war in the first few day two days of the war one day of the war by the Iranians but they have taken a THAD radar out of South Korea and I don't know if it's yet operating And the right place to put it so that they it can give warning to the Israeli population is is in Israel. Also, it may be the best place to put it because it's far enough away that there's some chance they can keep its location difficult to find. Although I think that's doubtful. But I think that that radar will be destroyed sooner or later because they will locate it.
And once they locate it, they can go after it as they did in the first day of the war. So what what is the absence of the THAAD radars as opposed to any and are there any other uh similar categories of radars that we can bring in that's going to give us enough knowledge about incoming missiles throughout the region? Well, the Arrow radars uh have some capability. They can probably see objects at a couple of hundred kilometers range which would be uh uh 30 to six, you know, couple of minutes warning.
Uh that's helpful. Any warning is helpful right now without the radars. Uh what the Israelis know is that there's going to be an attack a few minutes before it happens because um they uh uh they can the satellites in space can tell them there's been a launch against Israel. It can't tell them where the impacts are going to be.
So if you're in Tel Aviv, you don't know it's Tel Aviv. And if you're in Hifa, you don't know it's Hifa. But you know, in a couple of minutes something could happen. So that's what the Israelis are probably complaining about.
Now, when they had the radars, they could know that yes, Hifa is about to be hit and you might have um two or three minutes of um of warning from the radar because I could see it far enough away to know to take shelter. So, so you know it's it's in your city hyphus let's say and you know you have two or three minutes to get to a shelter which is not a lot of time but is adequate. So, um, uh, so that's a much better situation than knowing there was a launch and sometime in the next or so, uh, you know, um, [clears throat] there's a warhead that might explode in your city near you or maybe in Hifa or maybe Beer Shiva. You you don't know.
So, everyone has to take shelter all across the country. So that's much more disruptive than when you know it's coming two or three minutes from now in your area. So that's the situation you have without the radars and not an ideal situation you want to fight a war in. I'm going to ask you another question here in a second.
But first of all, did you have anything else on on that slide deck that we need to talk about? Uh not not not particularly. I I could talk about the Pack Two versus the Pack Three, but we already think we I mean, I can talk about that. Uh Okay.
Well, fair enough. Let I I do want to ask you something because it's it's in the news actually right now. Uh and that is that uh apparently the uh the commander of Central Command, Admiral Cooper, is suggesting that President Trump try and change the war one more time, but this time with another two-week campaign, but just heavier bombs. One of the things that really stood out to me, and I'd really like your view on this, is that Cub Cooper argued in favor of stepping up attacks to completely diminish Iran's missile capabilities.
Uh, according to NBC, the uh go big approach, he said, would diminish would minimize the US's need for the use of defensive munitions since there would be less incoming fire uh from Iran. But I still keep going back to uh this um because look, I I heavier bombing. Do do we have anything that's going to get through this stuff that's going to knock the We didn't in the first 40 days or the second 13. Well, I don't know what he's talking about.
I mean, uh and I I think he doesn't know what he's talking about, too, [laughter] because what kinds of bombs is he talking about? I mean, it's ridiculous. the bombs that uh that we have can cannot penetrate close to the depths that you need in order to get at these uh under under mountain targets. The um uh we do have penetrating bombs that may be able to get at uh tunnels because they're tunnels that are just built in the desert open desert areas.
Uh but uh you don't know where the tunnels are. If you know where a tunnel entrance is, you don't know where the tunnel goes behind. So, I mean, uh, so I know where the tunnel entrance is. Here it is.
And the tunnel, you know, the tunnel goes somewhere and the tunnel goes and it takes a turn and it takes another turn and it takes another turn and there there other tunnels off it. I have no way of knowing where those tunnels are. So the the only way I if I happen to have a warhead that might reach deep enough to go through the top of a tunnel, I need to know where those tunnels are and I have no way of knowing that. So I don't know what Cooper's 30 minutestalking about.
Who is this guy? I I I'm sorry. You have to show my ignorance. Who's Cooper?
Oh, he's the commander of Central Command. Well, that explains why. Yeah, that's [laughter] a big problem. I I and so I mean if that be the case then I mean I'm asking what's probably an obvious question here but it's still one that needs to be asked.
If 40 days and 40 nights of bombing did not [clears throat] penetrate all these mountain these missile cities that are scattered throughout the country and then the 13-day bombing campaign didn't um I don't know how another 14-day campaign with heavier bombs is going to have a different outcome than the previous one. So, where is that going to leave us if we use up yet more of our offensive capacity on an unattainable objective? I I don't know where we're getting these three star and fourstar generals from at this time. I mean, uh I think there was a time where a three or four star general had some knowledge of the weapon systems they were supposed to be dealing with.
But this is ridiculous. This guy doesn't know what he's talking about. I mean, it's um uh I wrote you a little note. I don't know if you had a chance to look at it, but you know, when you uh on Sunday, you made some comments about Wesley Clark's um statements about how we're going to put this band around uh uh Iran, [laughter] what band I mean, and you know, and Wesley Clark oversaw one of the biggest idiocies of the Kosovo War.
he was in charge of the Kosovo campaign. Uh during the during this campaign, they they they talked about destroying uh over 200 um Serbian tanks in Kosovo. When the Serbians finally pulled out, I I think they had lost no more than 10 to 15 tanks. You know, what does this guy Clark know?
I mean, this is the kind of three star and four-star generals we have these days. I think these guys are they have risen to the top of a bureaucracy and they have never been tested in combat and uh you know we need to go and get some of these colonels like you who have been tested in combat and promote them to generals instead of promoting the guys who are politically most astute to generals so that we can fight a war if we need to. It's it's ridiculous that this guy Cooper would make such a statement. He should be ashamed of himself.
Well, if he tries it, I'm hoping that's going to be the case. I think Gary's trying to pull up if people may not have seen it. Uh this uh comment that that Wes Clark made that we showed on here. Yes, it does it does warrant a little bit of of observation.
So pathetic. It's hard to believe that this is the kind of person who who the who the country looks to for military advice because you know I I think it is useful at least for a bit of a time here if you can explain um you know what what what he said during the Kosovo campaign and then what actually happened. Well, uh, during the Kosovo campaign, uh, the Serbs were, uh, you know, invaded Kosovo and, uh, which incident and I'm sorry, just as a precursor to correct me if I'm wrong, you have knowledge about what was and what did and didn't happen. Is that correct?
Yeah. Yeah. I mean, I I followed that war, otherwise I wouldn't talk about it. You can I will always say, and I've said it many times on your program, I don't know anything about this.
And this one I do happen to know something about because followed this wanted to establish that. Yeah. Yeah. And uh and during the campaign uh uh the uh NATO forces were claiming uh that they were destroying artillery pieces and uh tanks and and my colleagues and I were following the war very closely at that time.
I was uh I had not yet been kicked out of my program for my work on missile defense and um and you know we didn't believe it. We we didn't know because we had no way of verifying the claims but we knew that the Serbs were very uh good at building uh decoys. Too bad I I have a lecture I give. If I had it if I had had the foresight to know we were going to talk about this, I'd show you some of the decoys they were building.
you know, they they would take um a a pole, you know, a wooden pole, and they'd put a can at the end of the wooden pole, and they'd put bicycle uh um and then they'd have a cross pole, and they put bicycle uh uh tires, not the tires, but bicycle spokes on both sides. So to a radar, you see the reflection, the radar reflections from the tires and you see the reflection from the end of the pot of the of what what would be an artillery piece. It's just a can that looks like an artillery piece. So you locate this artillery piece with your with your airborne radar system and you attack it.
You count it as as destroyed. But what you destroyed was a decoy. And they did the same with armored personnel carriers. And and so apparently what was being reported, I assume they weren't overtly lying, is that every time they hit a decoy, they counted it as an armored vehicle or a tank or a uh uh or um uh you know, an artillery piece.
So they had a couple of hundred. Now, if you knew what you were doing, let's say, let me use you as my straw man. You know, I come in and I tell you, we struck this, we struck that, we blah blah blah, and you're a seasoned officer. " I mean, you how do you know?
I mean, did you really have eyes on the target? Did you really see this thing visually blow up? Or could this be a decoy? I mean, you you know, you're a general officer.
Part of being a general officer means you understand the weapon systems you're utilizing and your adversaries utilizing. You know, your adversaries using decoys. And so, and you also know that you may be really damaging real forces, but you know, you know that the reports you're getting may or may not be accurate because the systems that are getting you the information and the people who are getting you the information are uh are failable. It can be spoofed.
You know, that's why we put gun cameras on on uh fighter planes in World War II because the pilots weren't lying, but they 37 minutesthought they, you know, in the excitement of combat, they thought they shot down somebody and they didn't. So, we had to get put gun cameras in order to get better accuracy. So, you have a gun camera on your airplane now and you they report they destroyed a tank. First thing you'd want to know is what are the gun cameras showing us?
Because if they were guided to the location uh by um uh by uh a radar queueing system and they shot through foliage and maybe there was a false explosion because you might put an explosive device there to explode. That doesn't mean you destroyed a tank or an armored vehicle or something else that was identified by the you know, you probably you you just you might as well have destroy had destroyed a bunch of chicken wire that was put out there in the shape put put in the shape of of an exploding vehicle, you know, of of an armored vehicle that uh uh you know, that's what tells you that's this is real information that you killed something. But uh if if you're looking through foliage uh you you got no information at all. And so any competent military officer who's commanding his forces and I assume Wesley Clark is supposed to be competent.
Should have you'd have hoped. I mean he was a fourstar general commander of NATO forces. He should have been at least on paper. But um you know somebody said uh the other day we'll we have to call that I'm afraid we're running out of time here right now so we'll be able I've worked personally I've had the privilege of working with a bunch of general officers some of whom were impressively competent when I was in the Pentagon.
I knew a few of them actually most of the ones who were very competent who I knew who were later I knew as two stars and one stars who later became three and four stars. I knew them with and they were very competent. the four stars I knew at the upper level I couldn't some look competent some you just shook your head you know and uh so uh I you know I'm just speaking as a technical advisor I'm not a military officer I have great respect for the skills and knowledge of military officers but I do have some technical knowledge and I know how that interfaces with the with the military operation I'm Not suggesting I could be a military officer. I couldn't be.
You don't even need to. That that's what that's what we have other folks for. But we rely on experts like you for the things that you provide here. These guys don't know what they're talking about if they're saying these things revealing profound ignorance.
Yeah. And we're wor because that's that's what the president is listening to. But uh we'll have to see what that we're going to work out. Listen of our troops depend on too.
Indeed it does. Uh listen, we really appreciate you coming on today and giving us this information. Sorry about the mixup today. No worries at all.
Just glad we were able to get you on. But uh here in just a few minutes, we're going to have uh Matt Bracken on the show uh for the first time in a long time. He's going to be talking about some of the uh the expanding war in the in the Middle East, not just with Egypt, but even some of other areas, too. We're going to be talking about that here shortly with Matt Bracken, and we'll see you then on the Daniel Davis Deep Dive.
Daniel Davis / Deep Dive
Streamed live on Jul 30, 2026
Transcript
President Trump threatened to kick the effing s out of Iran because they were misbehaving and weren't doing doing what he told them to do. Uh we're going to see just exactly how effective that's going to be. But there's also some additional issues. Not only are we running short on interceptor missiles of all different types, running short on offensive missiles.
Turns out the Iranian side is starting to expose additional and newer capability missiles, which could cause us even more trouble than we're already in. And to try and knock that down, we go to our go-to guy, our MIT professor, Ted Postol, uh, national security expert, like I could certainly call him, former MIT professor. Uh, Ted, welcome back to the show. Always a delight to have you here.
Well, don't don't call me too much of an expert. I am an academic after all, and given what I say about academics, some may apply to me. Well, all the things you've said on our show have pretty much been validated over many years. So, I'm going to keep that title on there for you.
Okay. All right. [clears throat] I I want to get right into this though because even before I get to some of the details I just mentioned at the at the outset here, President Trump yesterday made an kind of an eyeopening or an eyebrow raising claim about how we intercepted all of the missiles that came from the Iranian side into our base in Jordan. Here's how he put it.
We're going to be hitting them very hard because it's our turn to hit them. They know it's coming. They're asking us not to do it, but uh you know, they tried shooting it last night. So, we had five rockets shot going 8,500 miles an hour and all five rockets were knocked down to the ground, but they nevertheless took a shot.
So, it's our turn. And we'll see if we get there with an agreement at some point, but we're going to hit them very hard. So, there. What do you say that five five missiles at 8,000 miles an hour?
Um did we knock them down? Uh well I I don't have the data but I doubt the president has any data too or in fact even the contractor has data. The the evidence is that maybe one or two% of the Patriot Pack 3es assuming they were PC 3es fired uh are actually able to intercept ballistic missiles. So, so basically if you assume for example that it's one in a 100 um the uh the possibility of um of impacting uh uh the uh of hitting a warhead which is pretty much close to what we're seeing.
Then um since they're five, it's it's the chances that they would have hit all five is roughly one in 10 billion given what we know. So uh if if he's saying that a 1 in 10 billion event uh probability of one in 10 billion event occurred then I guess I don't know we can take it at face value but it's it really doesn't make much uh doesn't seem highly probable. [laughter] Yeah. Yeah.
We'll we'll we'll call that one in the questionable category until we can get some proof one way or the other. Uh one of the things I really was eager to have you on the show here today. we saw it and unfortunately I don't have the that full screen uh video here uh handy but there was a claim made by some Americans that were on the ground in uh and I think it was actually in Jordan where we suffered some casualties recently both killed and wounded in action and they say one of the big problems that they had is that our uh radar that we had showed incoming and then it tells you where the thing is supposed to land and so that allows people to get ready and all of a sudden the missiles start maneuvering which was a capability we didn't know Iran had and that was causing real problems for the humanities just to even respond to them. Can you tell us anything about what kind of missiles he's talking about?
And should we be worried? Oh, we definitely should be very worried. Uh I'm surprised these guys have only figured this out now. I mean, I I've been talking about this for months.
Uh I even I'm not prepared for this at the moment, but next time I'm on it only take s of video. I have video showing showing these warheads maneuvering. So, uh we know the war. In fact, uh I'll be talking about uh you know, we'll have a few minutes for slides.
I know you want to limit that, but uh I'll just show you with some slides one of their maneuvering warheads. And it does maneuver uh and uh it's it's unstoppable. And to me, it's extraordinary that these people would first be talking about it. Now, it shows that the the last people to know about things that are known in the open are people who supposedly have access to all this classified information.
And you know, Ched, I mean, we can just look here. The these are some of the uh satellite imagery the US has been trying to block this stuff, but there's still some satellite companies that are putting this stuff out there. These are evidences of the specific targets that the Iranian side has been having with this is these are all American bases that you see on the screen here that have pinpoint targets. So there every time they shoot at something they hit it.
Oh yeah. I think uh what we now know about the uh Iranian missiles is is that first of all they're using uh the uh Chinese uh BU uh navigation system. It's it's sort of a version of the American GPS system, but it can't be jammed. In other words, there's no way to stop them from getting the navigation signals.
And they can also get precise information on their locations while they're traveling through space. So they're on a what's at early in their trajectory, they're on what's called the ballistic trajectory. They're it's governed essentially by the gravit gravitational field of the earth and momentum of the object. And um they can get absolutely you know to to less than a meter accuracy exactly their three-dimensional location over the time of their trajectory.
So their location gets more and more refined. Now when they reach the top of the atmosphere which for our purposes are are is the altitude at which aerodynamics plays some role. uh that's well below 100 kilometers. So um but let's say it's 100 kilometers and um uh they know their p they're positioned to about uh uh one meter of accuracy in three dimensions in one one one meter in three dimensions or or less.
And they have um they have accelerometers on on these devices that can measure uh the acceleration that is not uh due to that is due to atmospheric re-entry and also due to the rocket motor that they turn on on the vehicle. So, so the the precision I was just looking this up last week the because they're commercially available. They're called MEMS, micro electronic uh mechanical sensors and they're tiny things. They're they're what when the drones are flying they have them on them and they're they're ubiquitous.
They're all over the place. So you just buy them highly precise and a very very very conservative estimate is they the inaccuracies from these mems uh introduced during a re-entry process is maybe a few meters. Wow. Few meters.
Now there's what's called the control problem. you know, you're trying to control the orientation of the warhead and every small movement out of what you really would like to get causes you to maneuver. And um so I would say that they probably have a few tens of meters of accuracy at the target, which is very good, especially when you're delivering a warhead. The warhead, I'll show you.
Um, yeah. Delivers the equivalent of about a 4,000 or 5,000 lb explosive at the target. That's an enormous explosive charge. And most of the power of that explosive of that explosion comes from the kinetic energy of impact.
In other words, this thing hits the ground so fast that it just vaporizes. It's it's much it's well beyond, you know, for example, it's traveling at a speed well beyond that of the Orchnic munitions. Wow. Are hitting the ground at maybe 3 kilometers per second.
This thing is hitting the ground at over four kilometers per second. Now 3 kilometers/s gives you the equivalent kinetic energy of uh gives you the equivalent explosive energy of the weight of the munition uh in TNT. In other words, all of this this is not explosion explosion from uh uh explosive materials. It's an explosion from all of this kinetic energy being nearly instantaneously converted uh to kinetic energy from you know the the war the piece of material that hits the ground gets compressed so fast by the interaction with the ground that it superheats to 5,000 6,000 degrees Kelvin temperature of the sun surface and that expands violently outward like an explo explosion.
It is an explosion. Now, when it hits at 4 km/s, that's 4 km divide by 3 km/s. 6. Um, you square that and that gives you the rough equivalent energy in TNT of hitting the ground at a little bit over four kilometers/s, which is about two and a half when you do the arithmetic carefully.
So the weight of the warhead is 1,000 kilograms. So it's say it's 2,000 pounds. You get a a factor. So 2,000 lbs of just non explosive material compressed turned into kinetic energy into an explosion by kinetic energy impact.
So that brings you up to 5,000 pounds of explosive power. Plus, you have a couple of thousand pounds of explosive material in the warhead. So, this thing has the power of a 5,000 or 6,000 pound explosive when it hits the ground. And it does tremendous damage.
And I can show you some of the uh evidence for this. Uh, and let's just look at slide um two. This is the missile itself. It's the Alpha.
And if you look to the right of the missile where you can see the warhead itself, you see a a winged uh vehicle uh that has a very very low drag. So it comes into the atmosphere uh it experiences very minimal aerodynamic drag. And if we look at um slide four slide, let's just go to there we go. You can see that in the back of this warhead, it has a rocket motor.
See the rocket motor is in the forefront and that rocket motor is able to generate a couple of thousand pounds of thrust over time intervals of , , you know, no problem at all. So, so that's during the entire time of re-entry. Now, if we go to slide six, we can actually see this is one of these warheads arriving in Israel. That long bright plume, the front of the You can't see the warhead, but that long bright plume is the rocket motor exhaust.
So, it is accelerating this warhead to enormous speeds. And when that warhead hits the ground, it um it delivers a tremendive tremendous explosive force. You can see the whole sky is lit up from the light. That's the light generated by this enormously high temperatures in the generated by the kinetic energy and the explosion.
That's like four or 5,000 pounds of explosion explosive energy being instantaneously released. And if you look in the next slide, we can even see a powerful shock wave. You can see um an an intense shock wave. You know, this is really an intense explosion to have a visible shock wave generated by the explosion.
So, if you just wanted to get a sense of how much damage uh one of these explosions can do, why don't we just go to slide 13. There we go. Now in in the lower right of 13 I have put in uh blast contours. This is uh Washington DC.
Uh the building in the middle is the is the U Library of Congress. That's a big massive concrete and steel building. And to the right is a neighborhood that's immediately adjacent, you know, just regular buildings. Now, the inner circle, innermost of the uh four circles [clears throat] shows you the 40 pound per square inch um blast range, the the limit of it, all those buildings in that circle will just be simply knocked to the ground.
The buildings will be knocked to the ground. That's how intense the blast wave will be. In the next outer ring, uh the buildings will be extremely severely damaged. Some of them will be knocked to ground.
In the further ring, the five pound per square inch ring. Any building that's wood frame or brick that's not reinforced will also be knocked to the ground. And then the two pound per square inch one at the outer circle would would would knock in uh the interior walls might not knock down the buildings at the 2 lb per square inch point but the interior walls of all inside the buildings will be knocked out by the blast wave that's propagating through the BU building. So this one warhead would essentially eliminate this block of buildings.
Remember the term blockbuster from World War II. This is a blockbuster. Now if we go to the next slide just to make it clear what the effects of multiple warheads would be. All this shows is I've just amplified the first slide by putting three uh detonation areas down and the the one to the left which I assume goes through the roof of the um uh Library of Congress will essentially destroy the whole Library of Congress because if it penetrates into the building, the shock wave will tend to be contained in the blast.
wave will be so intense around that 40 pound per square inch point that all of the internal structure will be destroyed at that point. Other areas of the structure farther away will be severely damaged. So it'll look um it it'll look like uh the building um the uh the mirror building in Oklahoma City. If if the warhead went through the roof, it would look like uh you know, the damage that was done to the building in in in in Oklahoma City by the 10,000 pound bomb or 15,000lb bomb that um was detonated in the terrorist attack in Oklahoma City.
So, this building would be gone for all purposes. the uh uh the third uh detonation point which is shown on on the upper right would destroy that other block. So you'd have two blocks of regularly constructed housing destroyed plus the entire Library of Congress by this um these three postulated warheads hitting at those aim points. Now, think of Tel Aviv being subjected to this.
Can you imagine the damage in Tel Aviv? Because this has been going on a little while. Not every warhead hitting Tel Aviv is one of these. Um Here you go.
You're really quick, Gary. [laughter] But this is the kind of damage that would be done into the inter in the interior o of of the Library of Congress from this warhead that I postulated hitting the Library of Congress. So these are very severe levels of damage. And this is what's been going on in in Tel Aviv.
and the Israelis have been uh um censoring the information from these uh uh attacks. But I can see why uh Netanyahu was telling Trump at one point that he's more worried about the missiles than he is about uh nuclear weapon about the Iranian nuclear weapons which which he's on record saying at various points. So, so this is uh the kind of damage you would see. Uh the shock wave would propagate into the building further.
Of course, where the damage is done, it would have would have destroyed and collapsed all the floors. And this building, there's nothing you can do with this building except tear it down. You know, it's done. So uh this is the kind of damage we can expect as the war goes on in Tel Aviv and Hifa.
If the Iranians start attacking with Tel Aviv and Hifa with Alfata missiles, they will do severe levels of damage but at a lower level per missile if they don't use these rocket accel accelerated warheads. But we're talking about serious damage and this can go on for a very long time because And do do you have any sense for how many of these missiles that we think Iran has? Uh we we really don't know but hundreds of them almost surely thousands of them quite possibly. So hundreds of these things would do tremendous damage, but if they're thousands of them, which we can't rule out, uh, you know, we're talking about real levels of damage that's, uh, you know, you know, to Tel Aviv and Hifa, you know, you could you could end uh the economic uh viability of Israel uh, you know, by destroying, you know, there only a few big cities where almost all the economic activity in Israel is is going on.
So, and is there anything in the cumulative integrated air defense system for for Israel? You're talking about the Iron Dome, David Sling, uh you know, all the different kinds of uh facilities they have, THADs, factories, etc. Is there anything [clears throat] that can defeat those missiles? No.
No. I think uh uh the maneuvering these people for example THAAD if it had a high capability to hit targets and I doubt that but uh let's assume it does it requires um 30 or s to reach an intercept point from launch. Well, in 30 or , a maneuvering warhead only has to maneuver a few meters per second to be well out of range of the THAAD warhead's ability to maneuver and finally hit it. So, if these guys are talking about warheads they see maneuvering at high altitude, the game is over.
FAD has no chance. David Sling has no chance. uh because these higher altitude interceptors take many many tens of seconds to reach the locations where they're going to attempt to hit the incoming missile. And you can't predict where that location is going to be if the missile is able to maneuver.
you can predict where it's going to be if it's on a ballistic trajectory and you know how to predict the location because the trajectory is determined by gravitation and and momentum. But you don't have that in the case of a powered vehicle or a vehicle that has wings on it that can maneuver. So the game is over completely. There's no chance at all they can do anything against these things.
So the big fraud that's been going on for 30, 35 years where they're making all these false claims about capabilities is now exposed. There's going to be no capability at all [clears throat] intercept these things. So let me let me ask you, let's let's uh let's continue on down the path here. There was some claims when when President Trump is claiming that we knocked down all eight of those missiles.
There was additional reporting prior to him making that statement. [laughter] What's that? Sorry. Go ahead.
Uh there were some claims before that that there were some on the United States that said, "Hey, we only had minutes of warning before these things hit. " That is a lot less than what we had been in the past. And I wonder if you can just kind of talk a little bit about uh the presumed damage that has been done because of the radars that Iran has been hitting over the last couple of months especially uh and and what whether we're hitting anything or not. It's reducing our warning time before missiles even hit.
Well, the THAAD radar does have a long range capability and uh our satellites in space can see the launch and we can see the first 60 or s of powered flight because we can see the rocket plume, the exhaust plume. Once the rocket exhaust plume stops, the satellites cannot track. So they but they can do a they can get a crude estimate in 60 or s whether or not for example the particular missile is heading toward Israel. They cannot tell they cannot predict on this early data whether it's going to whether the missile is going to land in Hifa or Tel Aviv or Beersa or somewhere else.
So they don't have enough uh impact point prediction from the satellites but the THAD radar can take over at that point and I don't know if there is a THAD radar yet working uh all five of the THAD radars were destroyed uh early in the war in the first few day two days of the war one day of the war by the Iranians but they have taken a THAD radar out of South Korea and I don't know if it's yet operating And the right place to put it so that they it can give warning to the Israeli population is is in Israel. Also, it may be the best place to put it because it's far enough away that there's some chance they can keep its location difficult to find. Although I think that's doubtful. But I think that that radar will be destroyed sooner or later because they will locate it.
And once they locate it, they can go after it as they did in the first day of the war. So what what is the absence of the THAAD radars as opposed to any and are there any other uh similar categories of radars that we can bring in that's going to give us enough knowledge about incoming missiles throughout the region? Well, the Arrow radars uh have some capability. They can probably see objects at a couple of hundred kilometers range which would be uh uh 30 to six, you know, couple of minutes warning.
Uh that's helpful. Any warning is helpful right now without the radars. Uh what the Israelis know is that there's going to be an attack a few minutes before it happens because um they uh uh they can the satellites in space can tell them there's been a launch against Israel. It can't tell them where the impacts are going to be.
So if you're in Tel Aviv, you don't know it's Tel Aviv. And if you're in Hifa, you don't know it's Hifa. But you know, in a couple of minutes something could happen. So that's what the Israelis are probably complaining about.
Now, when they had the radars, they could know that yes, Hifa is about to be hit and you might have um two or three minutes of um of warning from the radar because I could see it far enough away to know to take shelter. So, so you know it's it's in your city hyphus let's say and you know you have two or three minutes to get to a shelter which is not a lot of time but is adequate. So, um, uh, so that's a much better situation than knowing there was a launch and sometime in the next or so, uh, you know, um, [clears throat] there's a warhead that might explode in your city near you or maybe in Hifa or maybe Beer Shiva. You you don't know.
So, everyone has to take shelter all across the country. So that's much more disruptive than when you know it's coming two or three minutes from now in your area. So that's the situation you have without the radars and not an ideal situation you want to fight a war in. I'm going to ask you another question here in a second.
But first of all, did you have anything else on on that slide deck that we need to talk about? Uh not not not particularly. I I could talk about the Pack Two versus the Pack Three, but we already think we I mean, I can talk about that. Uh Okay.
Well, fair enough. Let I I do want to ask you something because it's it's in the news actually right now. Uh and that is that uh apparently the uh the commander of Central Command, Admiral Cooper, is suggesting that President Trump try and change the war one more time, but this time with another two-week campaign, but just heavier bombs. One of the things that really stood out to me, and I'd really like your view on this, is that Cub Cooper argued in favor of stepping up attacks to completely diminish Iran's missile capabilities.
Uh, according to NBC, the uh go big approach, he said, would diminish would minimize the US's need for the use of defensive munitions since there would be less incoming fire uh from Iran. But I still keep going back to uh this um because look, I I heavier bombing. Do do we have anything that's going to get through this stuff that's going to knock the We didn't in the first 40 days or the second 13. Well, I don't know what he's talking about.
I mean, uh and I I think he doesn't know what he's talking about, too, [laughter] because what kinds of bombs is he talking about? I mean, it's ridiculous. the bombs that uh that we have can cannot penetrate close to the depths that you need in order to get at these uh under under mountain targets. The um uh we do have penetrating bombs that may be able to get at uh tunnels because they're tunnels that are just built in the desert open desert areas.
Uh but uh you don't know where the tunnels are. If you know where a tunnel entrance is, you don't know where the tunnel goes behind. So, I mean, uh, so I know where the tunnel entrance is. Here it is.
And the tunnel, you know, the tunnel goes somewhere and the tunnel goes and it takes a turn and it takes another turn and it takes another turn and there there other tunnels off it. I have no way of knowing where those tunnels are. So the the only way I if I happen to have a warhead that might reach deep enough to go through the top of a tunnel, I need to know where those tunnels are and I have no way of knowing that. So I don't know what Cooper's 30 minutestalking about.
Who is this guy? I I I'm sorry. You have to show my ignorance. Who's Cooper?
Oh, he's the commander of Central Command. Well, that explains why. Yeah, that's [laughter] a big problem. I I and so I mean if that be the case then I mean I'm asking what's probably an obvious question here but it's still one that needs to be asked.
If 40 days and 40 nights of bombing did not [clears throat] penetrate all these mountain these missile cities that are scattered throughout the country and then the 13-day bombing campaign didn't um I don't know how another 14-day campaign with heavier bombs is going to have a different outcome than the previous one. So, where is that going to leave us if we use up yet more of our offensive capacity on an unattainable objective? I I don't know where we're getting these three star and fourstar generals from at this time. I mean, uh I think there was a time where a three or four star general had some knowledge of the weapon systems they were supposed to be dealing with.
But this is ridiculous. This guy doesn't know what he's talking about. I mean, it's um uh I wrote you a little note. I don't know if you had a chance to look at it, but you know, when you uh on Sunday, you made some comments about Wesley Clark's um statements about how we're going to put this band around uh uh Iran, [laughter] what band I mean, and you know, and Wesley Clark oversaw one of the biggest idiocies of the Kosovo War.
he was in charge of the Kosovo campaign. Uh during the during this campaign, they they they talked about destroying uh over 200 um Serbian tanks in Kosovo. When the Serbians finally pulled out, I I think they had lost no more than 10 to 15 tanks. You know, what does this guy Clark know?
I mean, this is the kind of three star and four-star generals we have these days. I think these guys are they have risen to the top of a bureaucracy and they have never been tested in combat and uh you know we need to go and get some of these colonels like you who have been tested in combat and promote them to generals instead of promoting the guys who are politically most astute to generals so that we can fight a war if we need to. It's it's ridiculous that this guy Cooper would make such a statement. He should be ashamed of himself.
Well, if he tries it, I'm hoping that's going to be the case. I think Gary's trying to pull up if people may not have seen it. Uh this uh comment that that Wes Clark made that we showed on here. Yes, it does it does warrant a little bit of of observation.
So pathetic. It's hard to believe that this is the kind of person who who the who the country looks to for military advice because you know I I think it is useful at least for a bit of a time here if you can explain um you know what what what he said during the Kosovo campaign and then what actually happened. Well, uh, during the Kosovo campaign, uh, the Serbs were, uh, you know, invaded Kosovo and, uh, which incident and I'm sorry, just as a precursor to correct me if I'm wrong, you have knowledge about what was and what did and didn't happen. Is that correct?
Yeah. Yeah. I mean, I I followed that war, otherwise I wouldn't talk about it. You can I will always say, and I've said it many times on your program, I don't know anything about this.
And this one I do happen to know something about because followed this wanted to establish that. Yeah. Yeah. And uh and during the campaign uh uh the uh NATO forces were claiming uh that they were destroying artillery pieces and uh tanks and and my colleagues and I were following the war very closely at that time.
I was uh I had not yet been kicked out of my program for my work on missile defense and um and you know we didn't believe it. We we didn't know because we had no way of verifying the claims but we knew that the Serbs were very uh good at building uh decoys. Too bad I I have a lecture I give. If I had it if I had had the foresight to know we were going to talk about this, I'd show you some of the decoys they were building.
you know, they they would take um a a pole, you know, a wooden pole, and they'd put a can at the end of the wooden pole, and they'd put bicycle uh um and then they'd have a cross pole, and they put bicycle uh uh tires, not the tires, but bicycle spokes on both sides. So to a radar, you see the reflection, the radar reflections from the tires and you see the reflection from the end of the pot of the of what what would be an artillery piece. It's just a can that looks like an artillery piece. So you locate this artillery piece with your with your airborne radar system and you attack it.
You count it as as destroyed. But what you destroyed was a decoy. And they did the same with armored personnel carriers. And and so apparently what was being reported, I assume they weren't overtly lying, is that every time they hit a decoy, they counted it as an armored vehicle or a tank or a uh uh or um uh you know, an artillery piece.
So they had a couple of hundred. Now, if you knew what you were doing, let's say, let me use you as my straw man. You know, I come in and I tell you, we struck this, we struck that, we blah blah blah, and you're a seasoned officer. " I mean, you how do you know?
I mean, did you really have eyes on the target? Did you really see this thing visually blow up? Or could this be a decoy? I mean, you you know, you're a general officer.
Part of being a general officer means you understand the weapon systems you're utilizing and your adversaries utilizing. You know, your adversaries using decoys. And so, and you also know that you may be really damaging real forces, but you know, you know that the reports you're getting may or may not be accurate because the systems that are getting you the information and the people who are getting you the information are uh are failable. It can be spoofed.
You know, that's why we put gun cameras on on uh fighter planes in World War II because the pilots weren't lying, but they 37 minutesthought they, you know, in the excitement of combat, they thought they shot down somebody and they didn't. So, we had to get put gun cameras in order to get better accuracy. So, you have a gun camera on your airplane now and you they report they destroyed a tank. First thing you'd want to know is what are the gun cameras showing us?
Because if they were guided to the location uh by um uh by uh a radar queueing system and they shot through foliage and maybe there was a false explosion because you might put an explosive device there to explode. That doesn't mean you destroyed a tank or an armored vehicle or something else that was identified by the you know, you probably you you just you might as well have destroy had destroyed a bunch of chicken wire that was put out there in the shape put put in the shape of of an exploding vehicle, you know, of of an armored vehicle that uh uh you know, that's what tells you that's this is real information that you killed something. But uh if if you're looking through foliage uh you you got no information at all. And so any competent military officer who's commanding his forces and I assume Wesley Clark is supposed to be competent.
Should have you'd have hoped. I mean he was a fourstar general commander of NATO forces. He should have been at least on paper. But um you know somebody said uh the other day we'll we have to call that I'm afraid we're running out of time here right now so we'll be able I've worked personally I've had the privilege of working with a bunch of general officers some of whom were impressively competent when I was in the Pentagon.
I knew a few of them actually most of the ones who were very competent who I knew who were later I knew as two stars and one stars who later became three and four stars. I knew them with and they were very competent. the four stars I knew at the upper level I couldn't some look competent some you just shook your head you know and uh so uh I you know I'm just speaking as a technical advisor I'm not a military officer I have great respect for the skills and knowledge of military officers but I do have some technical knowledge and I know how that interfaces with the with the military operation I'm Not suggesting I could be a military officer. I couldn't be.
You don't even need to. That that's what that's what we have other folks for. But we rely on experts like you for the things that you provide here. These guys don't know what they're talking about if they're saying these things revealing profound ignorance.
Yeah. And we're wor because that's that's what the president is listening to. But uh we'll have to see what that we're going to work out. Listen of our troops depend on too.
Indeed it does. Uh listen, we really appreciate you coming on today and giving us this information. Sorry about the mixup today. No worries at all.
Just glad we were able to get you on. But uh here in just a few minutes, we're going to have uh Matt Bracken on the show uh for the first time in a long time. He's going to be talking about some of the uh the expanding war in the in the Middle East, not just with Egypt, but even some of other areas, too. We're going to be talking about that here shortly with Matt Bracken, and we'll see you then on the Daniel Davis Deep Dive.
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Re: PART 3 ANTI-ANTI-NAZI BARBARIAN HORDES ARE KNOCKING DOWN
by admin » Sat Aug 01, 2026 7:50 pm
Trump Orders MASSIVE Attack on Tehran, US Troops FLEEING Iran's Strikes | Ben Norton
Danny Haiphong
Streamed live 94 minutes ago #iran #iranwar #trump
Geopolitical analyst Ben Norton discusses Trump and Israel's preparations for a massive strike on Iran and breaks down why the US is choosing escalation now despite retreating on multiple fronts in the war.
Danny Haiphong
Streamed live 94 minutes ago #iran #iranwar #trump
Geopolitical analyst Ben Norton discusses Trump and Israel's preparations for a massive strike on Iran and breaks down why the US is choosing escalation now despite retreating on multiple fronts in the war.
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