Danny Haiphong
Streamed live 3 hours ago #iran #iranwar #pepeescobar
Pepe Escobar discusses the major bombshell Iran just dropped on Trump that has changed the world forever, and the US and Israel are furious.
Transcript
Welcome back to the show everyone. As you can see, I have Pepe Escobar, independent journalist and geopolitical analyst to join me on the breaking news and latest developments, which now we must begin with the initial draft of Iran's strategic plan for managing the straight of Hormuz, a bombshell that was dropped directly on Trump as he's been waiting for some kind of deal to happen uh over many days. Now this deal is very significant the draft in particular because not only does it solidify Iran's control over the straight of form moves and all corridors that will be used but also it carries violation fees of up to 20% of the cargo value and will exclude USI Israeli and all hostile vessels from use of the straight of Hormuz which is incredibly significant and a big blow to Trump. Now, uh also the Telegraph has said that these recent leaks out of Oman and Iran all points in one direction that the agreement between Iran and Oman to reopen the strait is not only sealed but also ensures that we know that the US has lost this war.
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Donald Trump Won The Iran War: 19fortyfive.com/2026/08/donaldwww.19fortyfive.com
Donald Trump Won the Iran War
From Hamas disarming to $60 billion in Iraq deals to a Saudi-led Red Sea coalition, a veteran national security expert argues the receipts are in — Trump's Iran strategy is delivering a remade Middle East.
Aug 07, 2026, 7:36 AM
Iran keeps on hitting tankers in the straight of Hormuz two in the last as these ships try to violate this emerging agreement. And this is also big news. 0 worth of Saudi oil has been imported to the United States for the first time, I think, in history since the two had bilateral ties. This comes in the month of July.
Saudi Arabia is also on fire as Yemen has targeted a major military facility there in the Narjan region uh which I believe is part of Yemen actually but you can correct me Pepe if I'm wrong. the uh there has been dozens of casualties in the last by Yemen against Saudibacked forces and what you talked to me before the show Pepe the Turkey, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia joint Mecca defense deal. Sorry I didn't have it up. Uh joint defense deal has been signed.
We don't really actually know what is in this agreement, but it comes amid this emerging and burgeoning and escalating war of resistance by Yemen against Saudi Arabia. So Pepe, how about we begin with the straight of Hormuz deal and work our way here. What is going on now? It appears Iran is really solidifying its leverage and Donald Trump is very silent about this at least in terms of uh how these terms do not look favorable to the United States.
Your thoughts? Well, it's a lot to digest and we have one hour. This a lot to digest because this new configuration of the chess board simultaneously the signing of this Sunni NATO pact in Mecca by Erdogan MBS and Sharif Prime Minister of Pakistan. There's an outstanding photo.
the three of them looking at Mecca across uh the walls ac across the whatever mirrors or whatever uh the window in fact I'm sorry across the window uh after they had signed and prayed looking at Mecca. So the symbology of course will resonate all across the lands of Islam. But uh you may be sure that in the Arab streets in the streets of Islam in the Arab world in central Asia in Southeast Asia popular opinion overwhelmingly will be looking at these three and basically saying these people are not real Muslims. These are interlopers.
They are not real leaders. Uh in terms of popular support across the the Muslim world, um they are at rock bottom. We can venture to say the three of them, especially MBS. Well, okay.
To get there, let's start as as you mentioned with a fact on the negotiating table. In fact, by the way, the only active negotiating table this past few days, which was the technical negotiating table between uh Iranian officials and Omani officials and they were ready to announce that they were about to clinch a deal and it will be before Friday. So the the deal is practically clenched. The agreement between Muscat and Thran is practically clinched.
Uh in fact in our channel uh transition protocol Larry and I from the beginning of the week we were already talking about that and saying no this is going to happen this week and uh you know that that seems to be the case. It is groundbreaking doesn't even begin to to explain it. And in terms of a a de facto strategic defeat of the United States, this is really mind-boggling territory. Essentially, everyone um sailing into the Strait of Armuse will have to follow Iranian territorial waters.
uh authorization by the IRGC Navy uh paying the required fees to the PGSA, the new body that regulates uh um navigation in the Persian Gulf official Iranian body of course and on the way out there will be two layers. The first layer of control will be Omani and they will receive their own fees as well. And the second layer is a final authorization once again by Iran. So to put it very very you know in a very simple way, very straight to the point of course it's a bit reductionist but it gives all of you the gist of the whole thing.
to enter or moves 100% Iranian control to exit or lose roughly 50 to 70% Iranian control. That's what it is in practice. Signed, sealed and delivered by both sides. This is not a unilateral Iranian decision.
very very important which will be part of the final draft and expect discomobulations serial discomobulations from war alago to Washington DC it's verboten territory for US and Israeli ships and for ships of hostile nations this means those that were part of uh the USIsrael combo during the 40-day war and there's the matter of paying reparations extra fees the 20% extra fee this is not clear yet but if this agreement is signed sealed and delivered for good between today tomorrow this week and maximum now Monday between Muscat and Thran wow this is sealing you know, for all practical purposes, the de facto on the ground and on the seas strategic defeat of the United States. So, you can imagine uh the consequences, right? And uh it's quite uh telling that for the moment there's basically silence coming from Washington apart from the usual odd uh viferations but basically silence and intersecting with this decision which is something that Iranians kept emphasizing throughout the week. Iran via uh members of parliament via the minister of foreign relations everybody advisers to leader Morava Came they were saying there's only one negotiation going on at the moment and it's a technical negotiation between us and Oman about the straight of our moose there's nothing else translation the our old friend theou dad cat to be dead.
By all practical purposes, it was in deep coma, dead or alive, but as in a Hollywood movie, could be resuscitated as every serial killer is, but essentially dead. And this is why it was dead and why the Iranians were not making any move about it. First of all, because according to the Iranian interpretation, theou was blown up by Donald Trump. So there's only one way to go back to theou if the United States starts to fulfill the commitments of theou.
Everybody knows the 14 points in the subsahara and Africa they are discussing the 14 points. Everybody knows about it and the Americans didn't deliver anything. So what's going to be uh a especially after this uh new code of navigation rules across the straight over MS approved by Iran and Oman? What's going to be Trump's reaction?
Number one. Number two, what's going to be the reaction of Sentcom uh and company? Nobody knows what's going to be the reaction of other GCC members which need to use the Persian Gulf and the straight of Horus. And now we see interacting with all these unknown uh answers the coming in Mecca of Sunni NATO and that Denny is wow talk about something beyond dodgy.
We have a Muslim nuclear power. We have the second largest NATO army and we have the unlimited funds of the House of Saud together in an agreement that nobody has read and there were no leaks about it because nobody knows what's really inside this agreement except the um you know NATO style article five paragraph that says that says essentially an attack on one of us is an attack on all of us. In fact, uh the official uh rhetoric so far, if I if I remember correctly, is armed attack in case of an armed attack. Okay, let's see uh the immediate probability right in front of us.
Ansarala and the Yemeni armed forces responded to Saudi provocations and a Saudi de facto attack on Yemen and they will continue to respond on not only 2 to1 but even more 3:1 4:1 5 to1 does that constitute grounds for this Sunni NATO pack to be enforced nobody knows and if it is imagine the scenario of the Pakistani air force and NATO uh Turkish NATO assets being used side by side with Saudi Arabia to bomb Yemen, a member of the Axis of resistance. How will they how can they possibly explain that to Thran? 0 meeting where we had Galibah and JD Vance the first me we have to always repeat that because the first let's say Sunni NATO axis or even Sunni was a meeting in Islamabad where we had Pakistan, Turkey, Saudi Arabia the three that signed the NATO style thing in Mecca today and Egypt. So why Egypt is not part of this uh this thing that was signed in Mecca?
Nobody has an answer for that yet. And it would be nice to hear something from Cairo about all that. Is this uh pact uh basically conceptualized against Israel, against Sentcom, against Sentcom and Israel, against Iran or all of the above? No answers so far.
So this can go a long way to know highway to hell territory. But you know just like that in fact and uh I I would like to try to ask this question today to uh our friends in Yemen or if they can answer during the weekend possibly. H how's Sana watching this uh uh Sunni NATO pact in Mecca? Do they see it as directly against Ansarala and the Yemeni armed forces?
Are they expecting a Saudi offensive backed by Turkey and Pakistan like know tomorrow? So this complicates the chess board to a degree that we we Danny we cannot even start begin to start to understand what's going on. It's very very very dodgy the whole thing and why today timing as well. Why today?
Because they knew that the new rules for the straight of rules were practically sealed and they wanted of course to uh you know uh change the narrative which is a typical Trump administration tactic. Did they communicate with Trump beforehand? Did they tell the White House beforehand that look we have a new NATO in town and it's not yours? So for the moment we only have questions and absolutely no answers from anywhere.
The only thing we know is this looks like another pass towards the big big highway to the mother of all hells ahead of us. Right. Yeah. Well, Danny, give me give me your interpretation.
your fir your first uh interpretation. Yeah. Oh, well if it well all of these developments feel like a a kind of outside of the Iran sphere and you know it feels like Iran onsal they're obviously moving in very strategic ways especially Iran with this new deal but with Saudi tur Turkey Turkey has been uh is seemingly trying to keep its uh nose out of at least publicly what's been happening in West Asia with regard to Iran and uh the straight of Hormuz and all of this but Saudi Saudi Arabia. It, you know, and with the US's hand in this, I'm wondering if this is kind of a desperate scramble to create some kind of security architecture to counter what's about to happen, which is that Iran, first of all, Saudi Arabia is going to get its butt kicked by Yemen, which is already happening, and second of all, the the the straight of Hormuz, and now you have the Baba Bend straight being tied up.
We know that all three of these countries, even Pakistan, which has been playing mediator role, but we know that it wants things to go to some kind of pleasant status quo. I'm wondering if this is some kind of desperate scramble to insert themselves in uh influencing dynamics, but I am confused about how that will happen given that the United States has a huge hand obviously in what Saudi Arabia does. We're seeing that in many respects with Saudi Arabia bombing the Iraqi resistance and Yemen as well. U we know the US green lit that and that they're having strange back and forths about what they should be doing there.
Uh and they're all very concerned about Iran, especially uh Turkey and Saudi Arabia. So it's it's a very curious thing, but it seems like a desperate scramble to respond to developments more than go on any kind of offensive. And I remember this Pepe, you know, it used to be said in the mainstream media, this is just actually from a few days ago that uh a lot of US former US officials are saying that what Iran is doing here with the straight of Hormuz is more powerful than a nuclear bomb itself. So I wouldn't be surprised if that kind of alarm is also going through these uh Mecca states, these uh uh so-called Gulf States and Turkey uh uh and Pakistan.
You know, I I could see that there it the UAE supposedly struck a deal with Iran clandestinely to move their oil out uh through the Fuja. So, there's a lot of moving parts here, but it does seem like a response to this changing uh architecture that I know you've been covering so so well. So, uh Pepe, back to you. Yes.
Um well uh it's interesting because I think about yeah a few weeks ago maybe four, five, six weeks ago one of the Pakistani mediators he told us he told Larry and myself and we we didn't believe him of course because there's no evidence but he said look wait a few months the UAE will be coming to us and will be coming to the table. There are already a few signs that they are already approaching the Pakistani mediators and you know just like probing the terrain because they know that they cannot antagonize Iran anymore. Iran is the emerging and now de facto big power in West Asia. Period.
Everybody has to live with that especially their neighbors. extra reason there's a lot of Iranian money moving in all sectors of uh business especially in Dubai there is a back and forth that never ended and will never end so they need an accommodation and of course they need an accommodation because they need to escape retribution for what they did to Iran during the war and Iran cap tabs they know everything that UAE use to attack Iranian targets. So there's got to be there will be blood. There's got to be retribution.
They could negotiate the UAE could negotiate the retribution or the retri retribution will be granted uh cash funds from the UAE. That's another story. But Saudi Arabia, wow, their margin of maneuver is extremely limited. If for instance would occur to MBS's calculations and that's complicated because guess who taught MBS to think geopolitically MBZ.
NBS learn about geopolitics from the bigger guy. So this this is not good at all. Right. And now, okay, are they willing to pick up a long fight against Yemen?
Again, considering that they lost the previous one, are they willing to sacrifice practically their whole oil industry because they know that when the Yemen armed forces that they respond, it's really hardcore and they are ready to go all the way hardcore. Are they dragging Pakistan into their own war? The Pakistanis, as far as we know until today in Mecca, they told via their mediators to the Saudis, look, back off. We are not going to you're not going to drag us into your war against Yemen.
The problem is they signed this thing today in Mecca. De facto Pakistan has been dragged into anything that Saudi Arabia decides to do against Yemen. So this will be one of the big questions that Larry and I will have to our uh sources in Pakistan uh like in one hour from now. We have a list of questions already.
Okay. Can you please explain your position with this Mecca thing and what you're going to actually do if Saudi Arabia restarts a war against Yemen or if Saudi Arabia decides to bomb uh the PMUs, the people mobilization units in Iraq again as they did side by side with the US? Are you going to attack Iraq? So the Pakistani position today starting today became uh absolutely unbearable unbearable and we are wow we really want to see what they're going to answer and there's no way they can defend uh signing a pact and being dragged into other people's wars.
Turkey is different. Turkey we know how Erdogan works and you know all of us will spend time in Turkey and and I keep cultivating my good friends in Ankara and in Istanbul they said ah he's always he always hedging and he will always hedge about anything. So this is another hedging movement you know maybe maybe it's inconsequential but the repercussions of the actual signing they are extremely consequential. they have to think about that and of course uh all the positioning considering the new rules of the game in West Asia which are basically dictated by Iran and nobody can do that even militarily you cannot change that.
So uh once again uh no answers ahead but the uh the chessboard became a even more complicated than than it was ago and of course the possibility of a return to theou the that catouou after Muscat and Thran clinch this deal on which by the way this is important it's temporary So if uh the Trump administration freaks out, Oman, they have a dialogue with more indirect than direct, but they have a dialogue with the White House as well. They can always say, "Look, uh it's temporary. " But for the moment this is our own agreement bilateral uh both states uh on both sides of the straight over mus makes perfect sense. So obviously Saudi Arabia is looking at it, Turkey is looking at it.
They said no we need to do something and they come up with this Mecca thing. Wow. Well, I think it's so striking, Pepe, that as you said, there are no answers uh coming out of these states signing this uh as you call a Sunni NATO pact. Um and Donald Trump also appears to have no answers for what's happening.
And I'll just play this briefly, this s or so. Straight up. No, he said nothing about this. And he's not in NATO.
Okay. and his line is uh on the on the straight of Hormuz right now is getting also very ambiguous. Here's what he said about the status of it. Has a deal of Well, I don't want to say it has been.
It's sort of open right now. You know, we have a thing called the blockade headed up by the US Navy and we control it and uh now we control it but they can always shoot something. They always have something or drop a mind and so so uh very ambiguous, very idiotic in many ways, but at the same time idiotic. This this is this answer is totally idiotic.
They control the straight. Zero ships are coming through in and out of the straight unless Iran says they uh they can go through. I think something like 10 in the last week, something so ridiculously small. Um but but at the same time I think the fact that we have you have those questions about a very specific thing like Yemen uh with regard to this Sunni NATO alliance now and uh I think it is very curious that uh players like Pakistan, like Turkey, we know Saudi Arabia is off its whatever right now uh being pushed from all sides and pulled from all sides to They're bad at hedging, I guess, is what I'm trying to say.
And so they're increasingly go getting into war with Onsarella, which they'll lose. But, uh, if Pakistan and Turkey don't get behind it now that they're in the Sunni NATO alliance defense pack, it's is it worth the paper that it's signed on? I mean it it it just feels like what is the point of this if not to directly intervene on matters like the straight of hormuz like Yemen like the regional situation and is it to the behest of the United States which we know Turkey they like to play all sides. We know it has a close military relationship with the United States but also it has its own regional ambitions.
Pakistan obviously has its own ambitions even though it works closely with the United States. uh Saudi Arabia same way. But what role is the US playing in all this? I wonder given that uh all of these parties are very valuable to the US in terms of uh trying to get their say uh pushed through uh in terms of influence in the future which is waning dramatically as we just covered with the straight of wars.
It's gone. It's over. They have none. They can't dictate terms on that.
So your your thoughts on this though about what the US could be behind the scenes. I can see a lot of generals, military officials are running around like cockroaches in rooms in Washington and in Sentcom really they probably don't understand what this is all about and what is going to be their role. Um they can even if they are paranoid enough and many are is this thing against us? Could be could be Turkey, Pakistan and Saudi Arabia preventing a possible sentcom intervention could be of course certainly uh when they think about armed attack long-term we have to think the desk cult Israel no question if if once again questions questions questions if there was an Iran Iranian angle and considering that Pakistan is directly involved and Turkey which was supporting the Pakistani mediation and the so-cal you know road to the peace process via theou so far they are involved obviously there's no way they can explain to Iran that this uh also involves Iran and obviously there won't be an armed attack by Iran against Pakistan absolutely out of the question against Saudi Arabia would be to defend Yemen if the Yemenes ask, which they won't because they're self-sufficient and there won't be an Iranian attack against Turkey.
This is ridiculous. So once again, the only crisis point is Saudi Arabia and Yemen. So it's up to the Saudis to they have to make up their minds finally. Do they respect their own memorandum of understanding with the Yemen or do they restart a war that they lost?
And the memorandum of understanding which I think is 2019 is because they were losing the war. It was after uh Iran uh sorry after Yemen bombed the Abkike in 2019 and then the Saudis said no no please stop it stop it. So they want to go back to that. Do they want to lose the east west pipeline?
Do they want to lose Yamu? Do do they want to be blocked in the Red Sea? So it's once again NBS decision and uh Turkey and Pakistan they are clever enough not to get involved because this is strictly between Saudi Arabia and Yemen. And uh the position of Ansarala and the Yemeni armed forces at the moment is that okay they are just they're observing all that with a smirk and I say okay let's see if they uh attack us again of course there will be 2 to1 3 to1 4:1 retribution do they expect Saudi Arabia and oh sorry Pakistan and Turkey to intervene once again huge question But consider that the Yemenes fear no one.
Literally, they have no fear. And when you go there, Danny, you talk to them, you know, you you see Sana, you you know, you you were driven to the mountains to see Sada, you see the burst of Ansarala, you talk to the local people. No, don't mess with these guys. Please do yourself a favor.
They don't fear. No one. So once again, the whole thing uh with or without the three of them in Mecca boils down to MBS being uh reasonable and diplomatic and trying to solve the problem with the Yemen diplomatically. They could they could have help from uh Pakistan and from Turkey for that matter.
But on a diplomatic level, Iran uh it's it's it's not this this is not a NATO against Iran essentially. First of all, because the Pakistanis will have to explain to Thran in detail why they signed this thing. Otherwise, the Iranians said, "Okay, you you're not mediators anymore. " That's it.
And all the leverage that Pakistan gained this past two months disappears like like that completely. They are doing that for their own uh reasons. Of course, they're doing because they uh China basically approached Islamabad and said you as mediators have to break your backs to get these two back on the table. So that's the role of China.
Number two, they are doing it because they need uh more visibility, more respectability and very very important energy and energy will come from Iran. So that's why for instance Iran is under pressure. They open six or seven o overland connectivity corridors between their borders to facilitate Iranian exports not only to Pakistan but to Pakist to China via Pakistan. That's why you have the guy from the National Iranian Oil Company visiting Islamabad to discuss what the Iran Pakistan gas pipeline which Pakistan needs badly for over a decade and they could never get it because of American interference.
So now it's you know the possibility is just around the corner. So obviously Pakistan they have their reasons and of course in terms of their geopolitical presence across Eurasia and across the global south it's huge. You are the official mediators the top mediators between the US and Iran. So obviously for them it's as but of course they do this for essentially for their own national security reasons and for their own national interests.
So uh for it's very easy for tan to you know just Arai was supposed to be in Islamabad today. He's not because Sheba Sharif went to Mecca. So this this thing was kept under wraps until today. Uh Danny there was not an expectation that something would be signed in Mecca because there there were two trips that they were trying to coordinate the calendar.
One of them is Arai arriving in Islamabad. The information that we received beginning of the week as look Arai is going to be in Islamabad on Friday. But then the whole thing changed because the new information was that Munir and Shabbaz Sharif would travel to Saudi Arabia to meet MBS. But there was nothing about signing the the Sunni NATO thing.
Nothing. This came out of the blue today. Everybody was what? Yeah.
Well, you posted Iran's response uh or at least someone in Abraham via this is via a member of parliament, Danny. We should not read that as an official response. An official I think is what they are thinking essentially. Yeah.
I think a lot I think somehow even though it won't be an official response because I don't know even know if Iran has a big opinion as a collective but in terms of a lot of Iranians in parliament and outside of parliament I would say Saudis must know that a paper agreement with Turkey and Pakistan will not bring them security just as years of one-sided nursing to the Americans did not bring them security reform your policies so that you do not need to beg security for security from others I mean I think that's a very very logical very logical analysis that is very Iranian. It's super logical, straight to the point and based on facts. Right. Right.
No lies told as they say, right? I mean that's a and Iran has the now the resume to show it or not not once has Iran begged anybody including Russia and China which as you know on this program and and programs that you do and and work that you do have a lot of people ask well why don't they ask for more from Russia? Why don't they get more from Russia and China? Why don't Russian China help them more?
And a lot of it is that they're not really begging anybody for uh um to save them. Uh they'll work with they'll work with Russia, China, but they won't Yeah. So So they and then look at what they've been able to accomplish. Um so it's not how the strategic relationships or uh agreements uh like you know one of the things that I learned on the spot in Moscow for the past few years when there were Iranian delegations in Moscow.
Um both sides they were saying look we are open to anything if you need anything just ask. And this went both ways. You know, way before the the war this year, they were already exchanging information and uh and help support at the highest level uh at the Ministry of Defense level uh way beyond ministry of foreign relations all the way to the leaders. This was you know conversations between Putin and K&A.
They used to talk a lot. They were always in close contact. So, so this is how the strategic relationship works. In terms of China and Iran is even more subtle because we when something happens, it's already there because the Chinese never advertise what they do.
Never. It's always in the shade. It's always discreet. And of course, in terms of a strategic relationship for them, Iran is a matter of national security in terms of energy.
That's why they don't have a 25year agreement with anybody only with Iran and it's energy infrastructure infrastructure that Iran badly needs and energy that uh China badly needs and they can pay in one of the reasons of the February 28th war. And now that we are getting to the point, the whole whole point of the war, which was never the nuclear dosier. It's an oil war. It's a control of oil checkpoint war.
It's a control of an oil checkpoint that was using the pro U1 anata total anata for the United States sovereign independent nation allied with the top two powers in Eurasia. So there's list zs to start a war against Iran from an American side are you know infinite. But obviously you don't launch a war like that without pre-planning carefully detailing and what what do you plan to if is things go downhill which they did practically immediately what's your plan B or C or there was nothing. So no wonder we are in the situation where by the end of this week we could have an agreement between uh both nations side by side of a straight overse basically saying look the new rules of the game are these and we set them and everybody has to uh uh comply including the United States.
Yeah. Yeah. And it's not hard for the United States to comply in if we take it in a vacuum because they're completely out of it. But you know uh all you have to do is sit back and uh and let it happen.
But of course we know that this is not possible for the Empire of Chaos. Pepe, we have some audience questions. Uh let's get to a member let's get to a member's question from uh Coyotino. Sorry if I'm uh butchering that.
Hi everyone from Brazil. Guys, why does theou not contemplate the end of the genocide by Israel in Gaza? Pepe, what are your thoughts on this? Because you've been talking about you've been talking about the MOU for quite a long time.
Um, what's your thoughts? These are two different issues. It's immensely important for Gaza. It's cosmically important for Iran.
What is in theou already in a paragraph one means end of all wars and inside this end of inbuilt in this end of all wars is the war by the death cult against Gaza and the West Bank. Absolutely. But this would have to be discussed separately. There are too many you know ultra hardcore issues in the in theou and this would be lost in the shuffle.
This would be part of a larger negotiation and of course uh it will have to involve the death cult itself which does not negotiate with anybody as all of you know uh they kill people. The only thing that they know is to actually kill people. But uh very important it is part of theou end of all wars means end of all wars against Palestine against Lebanon against Yemen against Iraq and against Iran. It's quite quite clear but obviously the Americans did not interpret that because the language is very vague.
The language of the MOU was on purpose extremely vague which is you know it's a Pandora's box of interpretations. Yeah. Yeah. And uh the United States for well the you know the United States didn't abide by it for it seemed like a single minute.
So uh that well I mean there were some sanctions lifted for a little bit there. There was uh obviously some moves maybe to open up the blockade but it was never serious and it lasted for a very short period of time. But Archi did say around that period that they would eventually be negotiating specifics around specific conflicts including Gaza. So, uh, for me it seemed like the specifics of part of these, uh, as you said, ambiguities with theou terms were go were supposed to be addressed in the actual negotiations, but theou was supposed to be terms that were followed immediately uh, in in terms that were uh, quite clear.
Lebanon was specifically clear uh cited and then of course all the sanctions and the the money the you know the frozen assets all of that that was supposed to happen right away but it it didn't and so you remember when we were on the verge of six billion being transferred from Qatar we were literally on the verge of the the money transfer and the Americans blocked it at the last literally at last minute probably somebody was about to press click and I know not anymore. Yeah, they were playing games. They were playing games. So, uh I think this is the big problem about addressing any direct conflict specifically is that the party on the other side is not they're not serious.
And so, um that's that's where we are. " Pepe, what do you think? This is it's a complicated answer. Um uh we should not use happy, especially when it comes to China, right?
we should use uh is this satisfying China's national interest and overall geopolitical interests for the moment yes because the most important part of the answer to your question the Chinese are coordinating in the background the whole uh Pakistani mediation effort this is immensely important they never show up the Chinese diplomacy is uh in terms of sophistication when they are dealing with ultra hardcore dosier like this one which involves Chinese national security and the interpretation by the highest levels polit level all the way to Cining from the beginning they interpreted starting even before February 28th and right at the beginning this is a war against us after Iran is Russia after Russia is us and we are the number one strategic threat to the Americas the way they see us. So obviously from the beginning the decision was made in in Beijing. We will do everything it takes not to not let uh Iran fall or fold or give up or be shattered. So the conduit after the negotiations the process leading to possible negotiations started uh was Pakistan and for instance the most right at the beginning we have to come back right to the beginning because this explains a lot of what happened afterwards but also it does not explain a lot of what happened after which was the first meeting of the four Sunnis.
The four Sunnis were three that signed the MEA agreement today. Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and uh Turkey plus Egypt. These four they met in Islamabad. And they discussed what can we do to maybe start a peace process?
Can we talk to Iran? How do we talk to Iran? Which one of us will talk to Iran? And and all that.
Guess what happened? The day after the foreign minister of uh Pakistan goes to Beijing immediately after the meeting of the four Sunnis to talk to Wii and when we says look this guys this is not good enough try harder we support if you are trying to get towards uh let's say the road towards a peace process we support everything because this is what we want and this is what what we have been saying loud ly everywhere. China wants a solution, a Pacific peaceful Pacific. I have the Pacific Ocean in mind.
a peaceful diplomatic solution for Iran uh US uh according to the UN chart and all that the the usual Chinese uh you know posture but they started to cultivate Pakistan as the top mediator and that's why these past few this past two months essentially we have this alignment between Beijing Islamabad and based on mutual trust and based on their shared objectives. So for the moment we can say that yes this is what the Chinese uh the Chinese totally support theou from the beginning. In fact they were part of the negotiations in the background as well. The problem is uh they knew that the other side would never respect it.
The Chinese also have experience with the Americans on broken promises. So uh from now on if the dead cat is finally resuscitated for the team's tie the Chinese will support it. No question. The problem is the Pakistanis have to make very clear to the Chinese and to the Iranians what is their role now?
after they sign this Mecca fog of war thing changes a lot and they're going to have to do a lot of explaining in Islamabad. Yeah. Yeah. Well, you know, in terms of China's thoughts and feelings about things.
Yeah, I think you're exactly right. China is more about interests and strategy and also it's uh it is playing this very much at a at a a far away kind of role where it uh it is not really you know Pakistan has Pakistan's politics which are very complex and complicated and you know Pakistan will play the role that it can play and China will always support anything positive that Pakistan can do uh not least because uh Pakistan is what number two in terms of partnership with China in the region maybe number one in terms of overall economic uh development and cooperation number with yeah absolutely and uh you know with you know right there with Iran uh Iran maybe plays a far more geopolitical geopolitically significant partnership with China but um nevertheless less I think you know China is going to support both of those in doing something positive around this war and uh yeah I agree with you 100% thoseu terms China sees as positive so why wouldn't it throw any kind of weight that it can outside of interfering in the process which it does not uh it's not there's no point to that and there's another element Danny the Chinese are always saying that everything is in theou there's nothing to renegotiate Right, which is exactly the Iranian position. Look, all the points are there. It was signed by both presidents.
Now you have to fulfill the commitments and the Chinese support that a zillion%. Now there's nothing else to negotiate. Everything is there. You have to negotiate start negotiating point by point and fulfill your commitments.
You know, uh give them the money back, uh relief of sanctions, uh start discussing about Lebanon, everything. Yep. Yep. Well, uh you know, it reminds me what you just said there, Pepe, of what Muhammad Ali said on X, uh recently.
I think this was the last . He said he mocks Trump, saying, "Massive attack coming. Wait, never mind. " End quote.
That's theater diplomacy on loop. Using bullying plus broken promises plus fake news as leverage is a failed strategy. Acknowledge the facts and fulfill your commitments. We don't need more theater.
So that was a direct message commit commitments and theater. Perfect. It's it's very very Persian logical and you know fact and fiction. They're very good at contraosing fact and fiction.
Yeah. So that's where we are Pepe. Well, maybe in the last five or so minutes uh that we're here, maybe uh where are we and what do you expect coming next down the bend now that it is becoming quite clear that Iran is looking to solidify at least this part of the straighter form question um completely and entirely outside of any kind of US participation. So, what do you see coming down the bend given that that's going to come in the next what hours, days at the most?
And could be today now is is uh yeah, night already in the Middle East. So, maybe not today. It could be Saturday. Saturday is a normal working day in in Muslim countries.
Uh or it could be on Monday, right? But once this uh agreement is signed well it changes uh even if it's temporary we have to remember all of you this is a temporary agreement even then this is a stepping stone for you know what they're going to be discussing if theou that cat is resuscitated and it's following uh Iran's planning I would say almost to the millimeter don't forget that the margin of maneuver for the Americans is shrinking by the day. Next week is the deadline of uh for the strategic petroleum reserves the depletion mid August. It's next week literally around the corner, right?
Not to mention uh we run out of everything. Dads, patriots, you know, we we run out of everything. Yeah. Yeah.
The e economic situation is so bad here in the United States and it's very bad. But continue. Sorry. How much is a gallon of gas in New York now?
Do you know right now? Oh, it's over $4 still. I mean, it's not going down. This is the big problem.
Six something for that's for regular. So diesel regular diesel which is diesel which is you could consider that what the the business right the trucking diesel gas is um 550 close to six. It's very bad. I mean, it's close to levels of what we had at the worst of the worst on the East Coast.
The West Coast was always much worse, but the East Coast, you know, you had $5 regular, 550 regular. Um, and for diesel over six, seven, you know, you had these, but it hasn't gone down that much. And it likely won't. And that's where the I think that's where the big the big uh crisis is that they're all trying to hide is the fact that no the globe the the the the results of the uh economic catastrophe that the US and Israelis decisions to decision to go to war with Iran those are kind of written in stone.
It a lot of that is not reversible but um anyway back to you. True. True. Absolutely.
Yes. Wow. So, well, okay, look, we're going to try to get some answers already tonight. So, if we have some some breakthrough, we should talk again next week.
Um, we will, then about the Sunni NATO thing. Yeah, let's do it. Yeah, we'll definitely talk everything. Yeah.
And of course, what the Yemenist are going to do. Yeah. Well, things are burning. It it seems like Yemen is looking to do as much harm as possible to Saudi Arabia to get Saudi Arabia to to just give up, you know, give it up as quickly as Saudi Arabia can.
That's uh that that seems to because Saudi Yemen is now hit Yemen's basically getting rid of it's it almost reminds me of what Iran is doing with uh the Iraqi so-called proxies, right? The the Kurdish proxies in Iraq. They just hit them and hit them and hit them and now you What did Mossad do? You bet.
What did Mossad just do? Mossad just fired a bunch of leaders because they are angry that they couldn't get the Kurds to play this role not only in Iran but on the Iraqi border because of Iran just kept on hitting them. And now it seems like Yemen's doing the same thing in Yemen on the Saudi, you know, along the Saudi border. Just hit those proxies.
they are, you know, they they are uh running away, retreating, and we'll see if Saudi Arabia keeps this up. I don't know. Uh your final words to the audience, Pepe, as we uh end the stream here. My final words would be Okay, let's go straight to the point.
Never mess with Yemen. Bye. No, never do. Never do.
The US, Saudi Arabia never learned. The UAE, I guess, learned, although, you know, and um the US never learned. The Israelis learned. They stopped.
They They stopped. Um and Saudi Arabia now has to learn, it seems like, over and over and over again. Thanks so much to the Alchemist for this generous super chat. Um thanks so much, Pepe.
your uh your um Telegram and your X are in the video description below. So, people should go there, follow you, follow and support all of your work and be sure to follow all your reports, transition protocol. I believe that's also Yep, that's also in the video description. m.
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Eastern time, August 8th. Uh, we are over and out. Hit the like button. That helps boost this show so people listen to it uh and watch it all throughout the day.
All right, everybody. Take care and I'll see you next time. Bye-bye. Cheers, everyone.
Thank you.