Trump risks war with Venezuela if navy and clandestine buildup 'spins out of control'
Times Radio
Oct 17, 2025
Transcript
We have an asymmetric advantage in that
we have overwhelming outrageous amounts
of firepower. Uh but you're talking
about a country whose armed forces would
be the equivalent of the Iranian
Revolutionary Guard right on their turf
homefield advantage. Um and you can
steam out there at 11, you know, 12
nautical miles all you want. You can go
out and interdict these little vessels
for the video arcade v view of them
burning, you know, and watching people
jump into the water on fire, which is
all you're getting out of this. But at
some point, you know, um it could psycho
out of control.
Hello and welcome to the Trump Report.
I'm Luis Sykes. Today we are joined by
Malcolm Nance, intelligence and foreign
policy analyst and a former
cryptologologist in the US Navy.
Malcolm, welcome back. Hey, always good
to be here on Times Radio.
Thanks, Malcolm. Well, we're seeing a a
pretty significant naval buildup in the
Caribbean as President Donald Trump
continues to threaten action against
Venezuela. How closely should we watch
this gathering of US naval power?
Well, you should have been watching it
closely for the last 6 to 8 weeks as
it's been building up. And that's
because there was a finding that was
done in late July uh where the president
decided that he was going to make
Venezuela a priority in US national
security. Part of that finding was a
intelligence community directive to
increase intelligence if not carry out
clandestine operations uh against
Venezuela itself. We've already seen
just in reporting this last week that
the CIA had ret received tasking to
essentially destabilize
uh the government of the Maduro regime
inside of Venezuela. Now with that in
late August came the naval buildup.
First it was a flotilla of Navy warships
uh Arley Burke class guided missile
destroyers uh a US uh Tyonderoga class
cruiser and then came the USS Ewajima
the amphibious helicopter carrier
amphibious aircraft carrier which has
been pretty much stationing itself off
Puerto Rico so that it could use the
facilities and air bases there and to
you know keep the 2,500 Marines that
would be an amphibious this landing
force uh at the ready as opposed to
being down steaming down off Venezuela
without a mission. This all being said,
we've already seen that, you know,
firepower has been applied rather
extrajudicially,
uh, you know, on people that they
suspect are drug smugglers without any
real evidence. So, there has to be a
purpose for all of these warships that
are down there. And this, by the way, is
a significant amount of naval firepower.
Uh there's been, let me put it this way,
there was less firepower of warships off
of Yemen when we were striking Yemen
than there is off of uh Venezuela. Right
now, all that's missing is a US full
complement US aircraft carrier. But it's
become very controversial now. They have
struck five uh of these Panga boats
which are common high-speed boats that
are used down there. They're used for uh
you know inner island transport between
Venezuela and Trinidad Tobago. None of
them have the capacity to get more than
a few hundred miles into the you know
into the Caribbean Sea. And so all of
this about they're carrying drugs and
fentanyl into the United States. Um, we
have been interdicting and boarding
vessels down there for decades. And what
we do is we board the vessel, we
determine if there's drugs in it. We
seize the drugs, uh, bring them back,
weigh it out, destroy them, and then we
send the people there to trial or we
bring them to trial in the United
States. they've just decided to do this
Tom Clancy routine from the from the
novel uh you know a clear and present
danger and just kill them without
knowing whether they're they're drug
dealers or not. Also, there is no death
penalty in the United States for drug
dealers. So they have either declared a
secret war and there's a secret
presidential finding that we don't know
about or we are at war with Venezuela
and it just hasn't been declared which
of course is a power of Congress not the
president.
And what do you think of the the the
message that's being sent here? because
you uh you talked there about uh the
purpose of this of this uh collection of
of of this flotilla of US naval power.
Um is it possible this is still just
about sending a sort of political
message, a level of grandstanding that
we do know that Trump likes to engage in
or or should we be worried about the US
actually really using these naval assets
outside of these smaller strikes we've
seen?
Well, what we're seeing is a progression
of uh pressure against Maduro. And I
think what they're doing is they're
making a very big show of putting a, you
know, this flotilla off of there which
has enormous strike power. I mean, they
have, you know, dozens upon dozens of of
land strike missiles. They could shoot
down aircraft if the uh, you know, the
the Venezuelans flew two F-16s out
towards a US Navy warship, which were
operating in international waters. But
then again, the F-16s are operating in
international waters and so long as they
don't present a threat, uh, you won't
have any incidents. That doesn't mean
that the White House isn't going to tell
them to engage and shoot them down in
the future. I think there is a lot of
vexation with what's happening there
because we either the administration
doesn't really know what they want to do
and they're waiting for more resources
like special operations troops to go
into you know and neighboring countries
or to um find their way to you know the
through the clandestine services or it's
it's a game it's a show that's part of
the immigration battle Trump likes to
use to put it and no, you know, no
uncertain terms. He likes to use little
toy ships and toy le soldiers, which is
how he views this. He views these
actions, you know, like he can raise his
finger and six warships go down there.
That is an enormous force to sustain.
And it costs money. It costs personnel.
It'll impact your retention of those
personnel, especially if there's no real
mission. the previous interdiction
mission which was done by dozens of
ships, the US Coast Guard, you had a you
had a payoff. The payoff was you would
seize these vessels, you would get the
drugs out there and you would know what
you were doing is correct. And that of
course this nebulousness
is probably why that southern command
the commander of all US forces south of
the physical United States why that
admiral Admiral Horsley may have
resigned or or to decide to take an
early retirement.
Well, yeah, I want to I want to come on
to the the retirement of Admiral Holley,
but um just just first of all, we often
look uh when there are these kind of
buildups for for some sort of uh uh
climax point. I mean, I'm thinking of
when we were when we were watching
Russian forces amassing in Barus, there
was the the moment where um uh plasma
started to be being delivered to
frontline troops and at that point, most
people were certain that these troops
would eventually cross the border into
Ukraine. Is there any developments we
should be watching in how uh this
flirtillaa has come together that that
could give us an indication of what
comes next and where in that process of
escalation we are now?
Well, what you're actually looking for
is what we in the intelligence community
call unambiguous intelligence
indicators, right? Um it is not just
bringing one amphibious transport ship
with, you know, 10 F-35 stealth
fighters. The definitive unambiguous
indicator would be the deployment of a
US aircraft carrier there, which means
we are now bringing 100 aircraft with
multiple layers of strike capacity to do
the same thing. Now, I was quite
surprised and shocked when they we found
out that there was a Los Angeles class
atomic submarine sent down there, which
for someone who has ridden Los Angeles
class submarines in a you know, four,
you know, less than uh less than overt
reasons, right? Going places where you
shouldn't be doing things you shouldn't
be doing. Um it it's either they've
either been sent there uh to support
sealed delivery vehicles or they've been
sent down there to go and you know to
use one of the biggest assets we have
right a nuclearpowered
torp you know torpedo and cruise missile
carrying vessel in a mission that would
be laughable unless you intended to sink
the two or three small you know vessels
advanced you know you know corvettes
that the Venice Venezuelans have, you
know, but putting sailors down there,
you know, in a in an atomic submary for
30, 60 days at a time, you know,
hovering around at five knots, seeing
what you could see with a periscope is
actually very taxing. And if there is no
clear mission, what's your mission?
You're going to see how many sailboats
come from Aruba and go to, you know,
Martnique. I mean, that would be a fun
job. Not. So
these assets that are being deployed
down there, I'm not sure they're being
deployed with the actual recommendations
of Southern Command commanders, the US
Navy chief of naval operations because
they would have deployed greater assets
to interdict the boats. More Coast Guard
who are professionals in doing this,
right? This is an armada of of US US
strike force and um right now they're
wandering aimlessly but then again we
don't know what Donald Trump Steven
Miller who is pretty much you know one
of the coaches for this you know this is
all part of their immigration war but
it's it's rooted in really horrible
information they said when they struck
that last boat which killed apparently
two trinidadians who were just coming
home from doing migrant work in um in
Venezuela
um that you know they they they strike
this vessel and you know they they they
don't have any justification for doing
it other than for the video of people
burning and jumping into the ocean. And
I've seen plenty of people burning and
jumping into the ocean in my career when
we fought the Iranians in the Persian
Gulf. But they were a military force.
You knew what they were doing out there.
They were coming to attack us. We were
fighting them and then they were
neutralized as a military force. Just
because you got four outboard mercury
motors on your on a panga does not make
you a drug smuger. Now there are two
apparently
you know um uh drug interdiction
intelligence has just has no longer
become a component of this
administration's intelligence apparatus.
We have an entire agency assigned for
this. Um, you know, we have the
president and the the vice president,
uh, the head of homeland security and
others saying I the secretary of of
defense, not war, um, saying that they
were interdicting fentanyl. Fentanel
does not come from Venezuela. Fentanyl
comes through legal means through China
which may either be fentanyl precursors
and it's done here or it's comes in you
know comes over across the Mexican
border and in some instances you know
most fentanyl comes in the United States
and it goes in different directions like
Canada and and places like that.
Fentanyl is it's also a legal drug in
the United States. It's used within the
hospital system and that's where we see
the greatest abuses, right? 100
microgram fentanyl patches stolen or
purchased uh or you know sold on the
street. So cocaine comes from Venezuela.
But again, this administration has
adopted a strategy that I call what we
jokingly called in the intelligence
community TC, right? When it was
something ludicrous. Uh we called it Tom
Clansancy combat cont concepts. They
took the idea from a Tom Clancy novel
and it's already been written obviously
in present danger, right? Which is about
the drug war, you know, uh, Pablo
Escobar style drug war where they were
shooting down airplanes, blowing up
boats extra legally, and putting
commandos into these places in order to
stop the drug labs. Yeah. Okay. We would
do far better by trying to stop the drug
use in the United States. It's a demand.
Well, indeed. And and as you allude to
there, Trump has announced this week
this CIA authorization to operate within
Venezuela. Um, as you say, it's it's a
strangely public way to announce
something that would usually be covert.
Uh, why do you think he's been so loud
about it?
Because he has a big mouth. And uh, and
it's and make no mistake, this has been
going on for months. that finding based
on based on the behaviors of the naval
task force would had to have been done
in July. And I've read other
corroborating information that there was
a finding about Venezuela done in July.
So, you know, you don't just sit there
and go, "Oh, we're going to start
putting clandestine agents into
Venezuela." It could be used as a
destabilization thing uh method where
you don't have agents or assets down
there. Um, and another thing is is that
all you've done is put the, you know,
300,000
man inter, you know, armed forces, their
their own tens of thousands of men in
internal security and intelligence to
hunt down regime opponents. And, you
know, we just saw the Nobel Prize winner
this year was a regime opponent who was
who was there for, you know, uh,
supporting the peaceful transition of
Venezuela to a democracy. Well, you may
have just condemned everyone in that
organization to death because now the
Maduro regime can say they're CIA assets
or just make it up and say they're CIA
assets. But this is what happens when
there are no adults in the room behaving
like adults. These are a bunch of
incompetent children who are playing at
government.
And and we mentioned before Navy Admiral
Alvin Holsey, the admiral who leads US
military forces in in Latin America. Um
he's he's announced he's going to leave
his job now in December. That's just
over a year in post, which seems
unusual. What do you make of of that
decision of his to
I have two thoughts about that. Number
one, he's been at that post as deputy
commander southern command since 2023.
So he's put in some time in SOCOM uh
Southcom. Um and you know, however, he's
also operating in an environment where
someone may have come up to him and
said, "You you retire or we're going to
fire you because he is a black four-star
admiral." And let's make no mistake
about it. This Pentagon operates on with
white supremacy and racism as a basic
operating function. This guy's enable
Let me tell you about this guy's career.
I mean, he's really impressive. Naval
aviator, uh, commanded three frigots, a
destroyer, two Tyonderoga class
cruisers, a aircraft carrier battle
group. So, he's worked his way up from
the tiniest little boats, you know,
learning how to sail in the, you know,
Annapolis, you know, in the temps of
Annapolis Harbor, uh, to commanding
vessels, uh, as an aviator commanding
vessels, which is super special in the
Navy. Uh, and it's interesting because
his last name is Halvy and it's very
close to Bull Holy, right? The famous
admiral in World War II who was a naval
aviator who commanded surface fleets and
it was controversial back then. Well,
apparently it's become the norm. This
man knows how to operate warships at
every level right up to a carrier strike
route and now every asset south of
Florida, you know, to Valparzo.
So whether it's, you know, 40 P8
reconnaissance aircraft or all the F-35s
that in chop into his AO, all the
clandestine operations, all the J-sock
operations that be carried out with them
or just plain old ships going out there
and seizing boats, this man has done it
all. Um, and of course the first thing
you would say is that's the guy I want
in the job, right? This administration
does not care a whit about your
competence or you know your character.
They care about whether you're going to
play ball when the time comes. And I'm
pretty between you, me, and the fence
post and you know anyone who's
listening, he's probably seen the
writing on the wall that they are out to
purge women and African-Americans and
Latinos from the armed forces and they
pretty much made that clear. So also if
he has reservations about what's going
on, trust me, if this gets out of
control, if the administration is really
operating on the, you know, the way that
I've described it, be prepared for him
to be relieved of his command due to
lack of confidence by the president of
the United States. And that will just
be, you know, a not even a dog whistle,
a fogghorn that, uh, you know, they're
going by the the racist, uh, you know,
uh, we don't like you because you're a
black admiral as opposed to being the
most competent man in the room. Uh, you
know, but when I go to war, I really
like people that know what they're
doing. And this guy knows what he's
doing. But then again, we've seen them
fire some of the best people in the
armed forces simply because they were
women and blacks.
Indeed. Indeed. And and you know he had
been ostensibly in charge of those
strikes we were discussing before um on
on uh
that we know of because we do not know
what platform actually dropped the
munitions. It is quite possible you were
watching US Air Force or CIA predator
drones carrying out the same strike same
ordinance. We don't know whether they
were launched from ships. We don't know
whether it was special operations
command you know little birds or you
know uh you know strike hawks or any of
these aircraft. But the way that they're
acting in a persistent manner and being
relatively selective, you would think
that what they would do is watch a
facility out in the jungle, watch
material be brought up to a to a known
trans shshipment point be loaded onto a
boat, then comes out in the water. The
stinks of a non US Department of Defense
predator.
I see. I see. So
he doesn't control those.
No. No, he wouldn't. He wakes up in the
morning and gets a a cup of coffee and a
report that another boat's been blown up
in his area of operation.
So for the Trump administration then I
mean in terms of who will replace Hulse
um does that then give the US
administration depend I mean I I don't
know exactly how the selection of of new
admirals would work but would that give
them the the capability to put someone
in place there who might be uh more
willing to go along with with further
strikes on on boats or or even uh
further buildup targeted at Venezuela.
Yeah, it's really not about further
strikes on boats. It's really about
carrying out actions against Venezuela,
which is the United States going to war
with Venezuela. Uh we can't do anything,
you know. I mean, this this little
patriot game, you know, uh clear and
present danger Tom Clancy game that
they're playing right now is skirting
the law. They are extrajudicial
executions and there is no legal
precedence for them. They can call
Trenar Aagua terrorists all they want,
but the war on the authorization for the
use of force for the war on terrorism
was strictly oriented to al-Qaeda and
its global anticidence. Right? The
groups which spawn from al-Qaeda and
ISIS. There is no finding that says that
that narot traffickers are designated
terrorists. To be a terrorist, you
actually have to go through a criteria.
I wrote a a small book called the
terrorist recognition handbook. It is
used across all agencies in the United
States government. It's on its third
edition in the last 15 years. And you
actually have to carry out an act of
terrorism or being prepared to be carry
out an act of terrorism saying that you
are in the distribution of narcotics. Uh
and by the president declaring that
that's a death penalty. Let me tell you,
I mean uh first off, what you're doing
couldn't be considered a war crime,
right? the extrajudicial killing of
civilians without cause. So that being a
war crime um is something that they are
really going to have to be prepared to
answer for. But then again, these people
don't care a wit about law if you
haven't figured that out. Uh you know,
it's about show and optics and you know,
but if this gets into a shooting war in
Venezuela, let me tell you, 2500 Marines
ain't going to cut it, right? I don't
care how much clandestine activity you
put in there. if the millions of people
in Venezuela do not support you. Okay.
Also, you're playing around in the
backyard of Russia, Iran, and you could
wake up one morning and be prepared to
go out there and and and carry out all
these activities, maybe even land
marines, you know, uh in and you know,
on on the coast. And then as you wake up
that morning, you find out that Iran has
shipped 25 anti-ship missiles you did
not detect. And now suddenly you got
vampires flying at you left and right
and maybe hit or sink a US warship and
then this will go to where a h 100,000
men will have to be mobilized. I mean we
don't do well with guys in flipflops and
that's all they wear down there. We
we've lost every war against guys in
flip flops.
Well well indeed. So, so you know, even
if there is no direct plan now by the
the US administration for some sort of
wider conflict, in your mind then,
should we actually be quite concerned
about these tensions with Venezuela just
bubbling over? Because Venezuela is one
of the better armed countries in South
America as well, isn't it? I mean, they
do have a significant military
capability, even if it is, of course,
not as big as the US is itself.
Yeah. Well, you know, speaking
asymmetrically, right? We have an
asymmetric advantage in that we have
overwhelming outrageous amounts of
firepower. Uh but you're talking about a
country whose armed forces would be the
equivalent of the Iranian Revolutionary
Guard right on their turf homefield
advantage. Um and you can steam out
there at 11, you know, 12 nautical miles
all you want. You can go out and
interdict these little vessels for the
video arcade v view of them burning, you
know, and watching people jump into the
water on fire, which is all you're
getting out of this. But at some point,
you know, um it could psycho out of
control. They, you know, there have been
attempts by amateurs to send armed
mercenaries into uh Venezuela. You might
recall a few years back these uh these
Americans. I have no earthly idea where
these idiots get their ideas from, but
they were just like, "We're gonna land
on Venezuela. We're going to come in by
small boats and we're going to go there.
We're just going to look cool bad
carrying their military ID cards, their
passports. There were white guys with a
couple of Venezuelans and they are
living this fantasy world that there are
not hundreds of thousands of soldiers
and police waiting for them. All right.
And they have their you know these
people have love their own country and
unless something changes to where the
military destabilizes that country or
some major or general decides to become
General Lissimo um we are operating an
environment where they have the capacity
to hurt us. They have the capacity to
roll up every C if there aren't CIA
assets there um that knew about this.
Well, now every one of them's burned
because the president has spoken about
things he shouldn't have spoken about.
If they're not there and he was just
talking smack, well, now you've
sentenced civilians who may have
cooperated with us to death because
they're just going to be suspected.
Indeed, it's a it's a a very a moment of
very high tensions and I'm I'm sure
we'll discuss it again with you soon,
Malcolm. But Malcolm Nance,
intelligence, foreign policy analyst and
former cryptologologist in the US Navy,
thank you very much for joining me today
on the Trump Report. It's always my
pleasure.
