Part 2 Anti-Anti-Nazi Barbarian Hordes are Knocking Down ...

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Why Every Nation Rejected Trump's Beg For Help in the Iran Conflict
Global Military Update and GM-Update
Mar 16, 2026 #IranWar #MiddleEastCrisis #Iran
#IranWar #MiddleEastCrisis #Iran #WarUpdate #MilitaryNews

Trump has now personally asked allied nations to send warships to the Strait of Hormuz — and every single one said no. The UK, Germany, France, Spain, Italy, Japan, Canada, Australia, and others are refusing to join a U.S.-led naval mission, even as oil stays above $100, the strait remains under Iranian pressure, and global trade keeps breaking down.

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Follow my twitter for instant updates here: https://x.com/GMilitaryUpdate

In this video, we break down:
• Why U.S. allies are publicly rejecting Trump’s call for military help
• How the Strait of Hormuz has become Iran’s biggest diplomatic weapon
• Why some countries are choosing backchannel deals with Tehran over joining Washington
• How the oil shock, LNG disruption, and shipping collapse are reshaping the war
• What this allied refusal says about U.S. leverage, NATO unity, and where the conflict goes next

Sources:
https://www.npr.org/2026/03/16/nx-s1-...
https://www.cnn.com/2026/03/16/europe...
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/3...
https://fortune.com/2026/03/15/iran-s...
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/16/strai...
https://www.twz.com/news-features/all...



Transcript

As of this morning, March the th,
secondsthe president of the United States has personally contacted seven allied nations asking them to deploy warships to the Strait of Hormuz. Every single one said no publicly and on the record.
secondsTrump posted on Truth Social calling on China, France, Japan, South Korea, the United Kingdom, and others to send their navies. When that got no response, he
secondstold the Financial Times that a refusal would be, in his words, very bad for the future of NATO. When that got no response, the US ambassador to the
secondsUnited Nations, Mike Waltz, went on television and used a words that changes the framing. He said, "The United States welcomes, encourages, and even demands
secondsallied participation. That is not the language of a partner requesting help."
secondsThat is the language of a government that has run out of options. Then, White House press secretary Caroline Levit told reporters, "These nations should
secondscontribute because they are," and this is her exact phrasing, "benefiting greatly from the United States military taking out the threat of Iran."
secondsTranslation: "We started this war alone.
minuteWe need you to treat it as a shared victory, and we need you to send your ships into the firing line to prove it."
minute, secondsNot one country said yes. And it did not stop at the seven he asked. Germany,
minute, secondsGreece, Italy, and Spain all went on record refusing without even being named. We need to talk about why every single ally is rejecting Trump's call
minute, secondsfor help. What that tells us about where this conflict is heading and how Iran is using control of the Strait to pull Trump's allies away from the US and
minute, secondscloser to Iran. Quickly before we continue, I want to thank you all for tuning in. Please make sure you subscribe and hit the bell so you can stay updated. Here's what we know. The
minute, secondsUnited Kingdom Prime Minister Kier Starmer held a press conference this morning and said, "We will not be drawn into the wider war." He added, "This was never envisioned to be a NATO mission."
minute, secondsTrump's reaction to Star was personal.
minute, secondsHe mocked the prime minister for telling him he needed to consult his team before making a decision. Trump said, this is a direct quote, "You do not need to meet
minute, secondswith your team. You are the prime minister. That is a sitting American president publicly ridiculing the leader of America's closest ally for following basic democratic process, Germany."
minutes, secondsDefense Minister Boris Ptorius gave a seven-word response that carries more weight than any policy paper. This is not our war. We have not started it.
minutes, secondsForeign Minister Johan Watul said Berlin expects Washington and Tel Aviv to inform us, to include us, and to tell us when their goals are achieved. That is not the language of an ally hedging.
minutes, secondsThat is the language of a government demanding to be treated as something other than a cleanup crew. France hedged but functionally refused. President Mron
minutes, secondsreferenced a possible future mission when circumstances permit. The circumstance he is waiting for is the end of hostilities, which means he has agreed to nothing during the only window
minutes, secondsthat matters. Canada declined. Arm Australia's transport minister Katherine King said the United States has not formally asked for support and CRA is
minutes, secondsnot prepared to offer it. Japan said it is reviewing its options within the scope of Japanese law but has no plans to send ships. Greece said no. Italy's
minutes, secondsforeign minister said diplomacy must prevail. Spain's defense minister,
minutes, secondMargarita Robles, delivered what might be the sharpest rejection of all. She said, "Spain will never accept any stop gap measures because the objective must
minutes, secondsbe for the war to end and for it to end now." Then the European Union weighed in collectively. Foreign policy chief Kayakalis gathered EU foreign ministers
minutes, secondsin Brussels to discuss Europe's response to the Iran war and the pressure from Washington to help secure the strait.
minutes, secondsAfterward, she said there was no appetite to extend the EU's asked by its naval mission into Hormuz, adding nobody wants to go actively in this war. Zero
minutes, secondscountries have committed forces. That is the situation as of this afternoon. Stay with me because the rejection itself is only half the picture. We need to talk
minutes, secondsabout why every single one of these nations calculated that refusing the United States was the safer bet. And towards the end, I'm going to walk you
minutes, secondsthrough the one Iranian strategy that is quietly pulling American allies away from Washington faster than any threat ever could. Most people think this
minutes, secondsrejection is about political disagreement. They see it as European leaders grandstanding, playing to domestic audiences, avoiding risk. In
minutes, secondsreality, the refusal is structural. It follows a logic so consistent across a dozen capitals that it reveals something broken at the foundation of the entire
minutes, secondsalliance system. Every nation that said no arrived at that answer through a different internal debate, but they all landed on the same conclusion. And the
minutes, secondsreasons converge into a pattern that the White House either does not see or cannot afford to acknowledge. The first and deepest reason is consultations, or
minutes, secondsrather the total absence of them. In the days before February th, Trump reportedly told Gulf Arab allies the entire operation would be finished in days, total capitulation. Kevin Hasset,
minutes, secondshis chief economic adviser, repeated a four to six week timeline on the Sunday shows this past weekend and insisted the administration was ahead of schedule.
minutes, secondsThat timeline has already been contradicted by Israel's own military,
minutes, secondswhich announced this week that the war will last at least three more weeks with thousands of targets remaining.
minutes, secondsOperation Epic Fury began on February th. What is clearly visible now is that key allies felt they had not been given enough clarity about US war aims,
minutes, secondstimelines or the conditions for ending the conflict. That frustration came through publicly in Europe where officials repeatedly asked Washington to
minutes, secondsexplain its strategic goals and exit plan. As Estonian Foreign Minister Margust Sakna put it, "What will be the plan?" The Wall Street Journal reported
minutes, secondsthis week that the administration planned to announce a convoy coalition as early as today. But buried in that same reporting was a detail that undoes
minutes, secondsthe entire announcement. The nations involved are still debating whether operations would begin before or after a ceasefire. If the coalition only
minutes, secondsactivates after the fighting stops, it is not a wartime alliance. It is a cleanup agreement disguised as a show of force. The second reason is the
minutes, secondsrelationship itself. For years, Trump targeted these same allies with tariffs,
minutes, secondswithdrawal threats, public insults, and NATO funding ultimatums. He pulled out of the Iran nuclear deal. He called the alliance obsolete. He imposed trade
minutes, secondspenalties on European steel and aluminum. He ridiculed Macron, Merkel,
minutes, secondsand Trudeau on the global stage. And now, the first time he genuinely needs their military cooperation, he is not asking. He is threatening. He told the
minutes, secondsFinancial Times that NATO faces a very bad future if countries do not comply.
minutes, secondsHe told reporters, "We will remember that is not coalition building. That is coercion from a position of weakness,
minutes, secondsand every government on that call list recognizes it." The third reason is domestic. European voters are overwhelmingly hostile to this conflict.
minutes, secondsEnergy prices on the continent were already painful from the post Ukraine era. Brent crude has now surged past $a barrel. Petrol prices are climbing across every EU member state.
minutes, secondsNatural gas is spiking because Qatar's liqufied natural gas, which European nations have relied on heavily since cutting ties with Russian supply
minutes, secondstransits. The very straight that is now effectively sealed. Any European leader who sends warships into the Persian Gulf alongside the American Navy is ending
minutes, secondstheir own political career. Robels in Madrid understood that. Ptorius in Berlin understood that. Starmer in London understood that. The fourth
minutes, secondsreason runs even deeper. The war is directly enriching Russia. Kajakalis said it publicly. The straight of Hormuz closure is funneling revenue into
minutes, secondMoscow's war machine because every dollar oil climbs above Is another dollar funding Russia's campaign in Ukraine. And here's the part that infuriates Brussels more than anything.
minutes, secondsThe United States is simultaneously granting sanctions waiverss allowing India and other nations to purchase Russian crude already at sea. NATO's
minutes, secondsprimary strategic concern is Russia. The war Trump is waging against Iran is financing the adversary that NATO actually exists to confront. He is
minutes, secondsasking European capitals to send destroyers to the Gulf while his own Treasury Department greenlights Russian oil sales. The contradiction is not
minutes, secondssubtle. It is policy. Now, we need to talk about the geography because even if the political will existed, the military problem is severe. The straight of
minutes, secondsHormuz is only about nautical miles wide at its narrowest point, and Iran controls the mountainous northern shoreline. Thran has spent decades
minutes, secondspreparing to threaten shipping there with mines, missiles, drones, fast attack craft, and other asymmetric tactics. The US military has already
minutes, secondssaid it destroyed Iranian mine laying vessels near the strait, which shows how quickly any escort mission could turn into a direct shooting war. Naval experts have warned that reopening
minutes, secondsHormuz safely while active hostilities continue would be extremely difficult even for major western navies. There is also a recent precedent that no defense
minutes, secondsministry has forgotten, the Red Sea. The Houthi disruption was a smaller scale preview of exactly this scenario. A non-state militia with a fraction of
minutes, secondsIran's capabilities shut down one of the busiest shipping corridors on Earth. Two administrations launched strikes. Biden admitted the strikes were not working
minutes, secondsand continued them anyway. Trump did the same and eventually walked away. The Red Sea was never fully secured. Every Allied military strategist drew one
minutes, secondsconclusion from that episode. If the full power of the American Navy could not reopen the Red Sea against the Houthis, no patchwork coalition is going to hold the straight of Hormuz against the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps,
minutes, secondswhich fields anti-hship ballistic missiles, fast attack craft,
minutes, secondssubmarines, and a coastal missile network hardened over four decades of preparation for exactly this confrontation. And now the part that matters most, the part most coverage has
minutes, secondmissed entirely. Iran is not just blocking the straight. Iran is using the straight as a sorting mechanism. Foreign Minister Abbas Arachi went on CBS and
minutes, secondsstated it plainly. The straight of Hormuz is open. It is only closed to American, Israeli, and allied vessels.
minutes, secondsOthers are free to pass. Then Tran proved it. A Pakistani flagged Afromax tanker called the Karachi transited the straight on March th carrying Abu
minutes, secondsDhabi crude. Two Indian LPG carriers passed through safely. A Turkish vessel received clearance from Tran. China is in direct negotiations with Iran for
minutes, secondsguaranteed passage of its crude and Qatari LNG shipments. France and the United Kingdom have reportedly opened back channel talks with Thran about
minutes, secondssecuring their own vessels. Follow that logic to its conclusion. Every allied capital now faces a choice. Join an American convoy mission. Guarantee that
minutes, secondsIran classifies your ships as hostile targets. Or negotiate directly with Thran. stay out of the war and keep your oil flowing. Washington is offering its
minutes, secondspartners the privilege of becoming combatants. Tran is offering them the privilege of becoming customers. For any government making that calculation, the
minutes, secondsanswer is obvious. This is the strategic maneuver that no one in the administration appears to have anticipated. Iran has converted the straight from a military choke point
minutes, secondsinto a diplomatic lever that is actively peeling allies away from American leadership. Every nation that negotiates with Thrron for safe passage is
minutes, secondsimplicitly recognizing Iranian authority over the waterway. whom every successful transit arranged through Iranian channels is a quiet rejection of
minutes, secondsAmerican power. The alliance is not just failing to assemble. It is being disassembled from the outside by the very adversary the war was supposed to
minutes, secondseliminate. And the economic architecture underneath all of this is collapsing in parallel. Before the war, ships transited the strait daily. As of this
minutes, secondsweek, UK maritime trade operations reports no more than five. Oil exports through the waterway have dropped below % of pre-conlict levels according to
minutes, secondsthe IEA. Brent crude is trading between two and $a barrel. It touched $last week. The IEA announced on
minutes, secondMarch th the largest emergency reserve release in its -year history. million barrels across nations. The
minutes, secondsUnited States alone is contributing million barrels from a strategic petroleum reserve that only contains
minutes, secondsmillion. That is % of America's entire emergency stockpile. And the release has not stabilized prices. Crude climbed %
minutes, secondsin the days following the announcement.
minutes, secondsIraq's southern oil field production has collapsed %, falling from million barrels a day to million. Kuwait has announced precautionary output cuts.
minutes, secondsSaudi Arabia is rerouting what it can through its East West pipeline to the Red Sea port of Yamu, but that pipeline was never built to replace the Strait.
minutes, secondsThe deficit stands at roughly million barrels per day and no combination of reserves. Pipelines and alternate routes can close it. And it is not only oil.
minutes, secondsGlobal liqufied natural gas supply has been cut by % because Qatar, a major LNG exporter, ships through the same choke point. That directly undermines
minutesEurope's effort to replace Russian gas since Fertilizer, helium, and uranium shipments are also stalled.
minutes, secondsChina has already tapped its strategic fertilizer reserve. The United States does not have one. Meanwhile, the broader global picture continues to
minutes, secondsfracture. North Korea fired multiple ballistic missiles into the sea two days ago during US South Korea military drills, adding to the sense of regional
minutes, secondsinstability in East Asia. China has increased military activity around Taiwan. The PLA headquarters is reportedly monitoring this conflict on
minutes, secondslive screens, tracking missile trajectories and strike patterns in real time. They're not intervening, they are studying. Dubai International Airport,
minutes, secondsone of the busiest aviation hubs on the planet, was struck by a drone today that hit a fuel depot and forced a temporary suspension of operations. Commercial
minutes, secondsflights bound for Dubai, turned around mid- route. Qatar intercepted a second wave of Iranian missiles this morning.
minutes, secondsKuwait's airport remains shuttered. Abu Dhabi is running at limited capacity,
minutes, secondsand David Saxs, a Trump administration adviser, publicly warned about the risk of nuclear escalation. That remark stood out because it brought a taboo scenario
minutes, secondsinto open discussion, even if officials remain careful about how they speak publicly about Israel's capabilities.
minutes, secondsSo, put the full picture together. The assumption before February th, days,
minutes, secondstotal Iranian capitulation. The strait stays open. Allies fall in line. The reality, week three, the strait is under
minutes, secondsIranian control. Oil above $The largest reserve release in history failing to hold prices. and a unanimous public on the record rejection from
minutes, secondsevery allied capital Washington contacted. The assumption regime collapse. The reality the son of the killed supreme leader
minutes, secondsassumed power within hours and declared the strait will remain sealed as leverage. The assumption the coalition forms quickly. Escorts begin.
minutes, secondsGlobal trade resumeums. The reality not one nation has committed a single warship and several are now negotiating directly with tan for the access
minutes, secondsWashington promised its coalition would provide. Uh the assumption on Iran's side also deserves scrutiny. Thran framed its closure as total. The reality
minutes, secondsis selective with passage granted to nations willing to deal bilaterally. That is not a blockade born of strength.
minutes, secondsIt is a calculated gamble that depends on the war not escalating to the point where Iran's own coastline becomes the front line. If the administration moves toward a ground seizure of Car Island,
minutes, secondswhich handles % of Iran's crude exports, Thran's leverage evaporates.
minutes, secondsIran's gamble requires that escalation does not reach that threshold. Whether that bet holds is the question neither side can answer tonight. And the only
minutes, secondsquestion left is whether the next phase of this conflict is decided by Washington, by tyrann by the dozen allied governments that have just told
minutes, secondsthe most powerful military on earth that it is on its own. Thanks a lot for watching. I really appreciate your support. Join the discussion in the comments below. Let me know your
minutes, secondsthoughts. Who do you think is winning the war? What do you think will happen next? Do you think any other nation will join in? Let me know. And please
minutes, secondssubscribe and like the video if you want to stay updated. And click the video on the screen to see another.

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Part 1 of 2

Iran HITS UAE Oil Port, Netanyahu MISSING as Trump LOSES IT Over Strait of Hormuz
Danny Haiphong
Streamed live on Mar 16, 2026 #iranwar #trump #netanyahu

Iran is taking the US empire to its limits as the combination of its missile & drone operations plus the closure of the Strait of Hormuz triggers unprecedented desperation from Trump’s administration. Plus, where is Netanyahu? The answer will shock you!



Transcript

Welcome everyone. Welcome back to the show. It's your host Danny High. We have a very special program for you today.
secondsSo, hit the like button as you come on to the stream. It's great to be back and we're just going to get right to it. So,
secondsdefinitely hit that like button as you come on. Uh the very first thing I want to cover though are updates in Iran's Operation True Promise and its
secondsretaliation for the USIsraeli war of aggression as it enters the third week.
secondsSo the latest news and latest developments of course are that the straight of Hormuz is absolutely closed.
secondsUh there are zero ships that are passing through zero commercial vessels without Iranian permission passing through the straight of Hormuz. But that isn't all
secondsthat Iran is doing. So in retaliation to the Carg Island strike by the United
secondsStates and threats by the United States and Israel that they will hit Car Island's oil facilities should things
secondscontinue to escalate. Iran has already preemptively you could say or
minute, secondsoffensively gone after the energy of the energy facilities and sites of key US
minute, secondsallies. And the biggest one of note is the United Arab Emirates. So Iran has
minute, secondshit the key UAE oil port and the Dubai airport which stores a lot of fuel there
minute, secondsuh in the last hours. United Arab Emirates's biggest port and storage facility Fujayra and the International
minute, secondsAirport in Dubai have come under drone attacks as Iran continues to target Gulf transport and oil infrastructure.
minute, secondsFlights were suspended temporarily on March th after the fire broke out in in the airport after a drone related incident. A fire also raged after a
minute, secondsdrone attack on the strategically important port in industrial zone of Fujira, one of the largest oil storage facilities in the region. And then it
minute, secondsgoes over on this is the BBC to say that Iran has launched over missiles and drones at the UAE alone since the
minutes, secondsUSIsraeli war of aggression began on February th. And here is an image of
minutes, secondsthe fire at Fujyra that was raging um in the last hours as these drone strikes
minutes, secondscame down. Now what is important about uh Fujira? We have to go over this just a bit because I think it's really
minutes, secondsimportant that uh you know Reuters itself was talking about Fujyra prior to the strikes because Iran has not been
minutes, secondsbluffing uh one bit when it comes to what it has been doing during the entirety of Operation True Promise It
minutes, secondshas said it's going to hit these locations. It's going to hit all US assets. It's going to hit all strategic assets of the US military in the region
minutes, secondsin the Gulf States. And then of course it's going to hit Israel which we will get to in a second. But why is uh the
minutes, secondsport of Fujiro so important to the oil market now that we know that the straight of Hormuz is closed. Some oil
minutes, secondsloading operations are suspended. This was before the strike uh by the uh United Arab Emirates is at Fujyra a major global hub for refueling ships as
minutes, secondswell as crude and fuel exports after a drone attack. Fujivyra exports more than million barrels per day of crude oil
minutes, secondsand refined fuels on average over the last year. A volume equal to %
minutes, secondsof daily world demand. It's located on the Gulf of Oman approximately miles from the straight of Hormuz which is effectively closed increasing the
minutes, secondsimportance of Fujyra's flows to the global oil market during the current conflict. So why does it matter to the
minutes, secondsUAE? Well, before the war began, the UAE produced million BPD of crew,
minutes, secondsoperating a million BPD pipeline that can transport some crude to bypass the straight of Hormuz. So, this is all about bypassing the straight of Hormuz.
minutes, secondsAnd Iran is saying, "You're not going to do that." So, significant disruptions at Fujiro force OPEC, third largest crude producer, to shut down even more
minutes, secondsproduction. And you know what the impact of that is going to be? It's going to be massive increases in the oil prices as
minutes, secondswe are already seeing across the region already. So I just want to uh throw up
minutes, secondsuh exactly what has been seen in recent hours at the Dubai airport. There you see the fires uh and the smoke coming.
minutes, secondsThis is from the cradle, Charmaine Arwani, great friend of the show. Here you see uh exactly what uh the damage
minutes, secondslooks like and it looked even worse overnight. Here is more image uh images and and video of what the airport looks
minutes, secondslike. So Iran they have hundreds of thou likely hundreds of thousands of drones.
minutes, secondsOf course Iran has been very circumspect. They have not uh shared exactly how many missiles and drones
minutes, secondsthey have in their arsenal. But one thing is for sure that they have become increasingly more strategic about these strikes and not to mention uh they have
minutes, secondsshown no signal no sign that they are letting up one bit. So oil prices are
minutes, secondsare not doing too well at the moment. uh we can see that uh uh and we will see that soon uh when we talk about the
minutes, secondsstraight of horm but I believe they went down just under $per barrel uh or general oil I think the average oil
minutes, secondsprice uh Brent crude went down under $per barrel after major spikes over the last few days but all of this is due
minutes, secondsto market manipulation and the trend keeps going the wrong direction with some analysts saying that we could see
minutes, seconds$$maybe even more in the coming uh weeks to if this lasts into
minutes, secondsApril, we will see a very very very difficult spring. Many have noted the economists and other outlets that this
minutes, secondsis already a worse oil crisis than what occurred during the s when the OPEC oil crisis uh generated a general
minutes, secondseconomic recession. albeit not as devastating as but nonetheless incredibly devastating for millions upon
minutes, secondsmillions upon millions of people. And that's the hurt that is coming due to this war. So, nonetheless, uh the UAE
minutes, secondshas come under fire. Bahrain's oil facilities have come under fire. Saudi Arabia is now there's a lot of talk about false flags and Iran has warned
minutes, secondsthat Iran that it is not trying to hit oil facilities that are not strategic.
minutes, secondsIt is not trying to stop these countries from being able to trade oil if they cooperate with Iran. But if they use
minutes, secondstheir platforms, their assets, their countries for strikes against Iran, then you will have uh you will have
minutes, secondsretaliation. And that's exactly what's happened to the UAE. You may know that the UAE was one of the most enthusiastic
minutes, secondscountries in joining the Abraham Accords. It has been an absolute uh uh you know uh puppet of Israel when it
minutes, secondscomes to the war on Yemen and completely backstabbing the region in so many ways.
minutes, secondsAnd so the UAE has been using its territory for strikes against Iran and has thus paid the price. Now that the
minutes, secondsUnited States and Israel, even though there's some disagreement between the US and Israel about whether uh to hit Iranian oil facilities or oil commerce,
minutes, secondsall of this uh nonetheless uh Iran is not going to uh follow the lead of the
minutes, secondsUnited States and Israel. They are retaliating back and they are trying to enact equal not necessarily the same
minutes, secondskind but equal parts damage in the way that it can which is by hitting the United States where it hurts the most
minutes, secondand that is the global economy. So that's where the region sits in the Gulf. Iran is largely focusing now on
minutes, secondsdrone attacks in the Gulf region including with its ally uh in the and
minutes, secondsthe Iraqi resistance Katab Hezbollah as well as other forces in the region like Hezbollah. They are mostly focusing on
minutes, secondsespecially Iran utilizing drone strikes while Iran focuses its missile fire on
minutes, secondsIsrael. And this is where things are getting very difficult for the other party, the other aggressor party,
minutes, secondsprincipal aggressor party in this war that is the so-called state of Israel.
minutes, secondsHere is Mint Press News. They reported over the last hours Iran struck Israel times. We're seeing some
minutes, secondsfootage uh uh emerge here. And I'll just show it a bit here. There's uh a massive
minutes, secondsdamage in central Israel here uh when a ballistic missile struck a I believe this is a residential area. Iran is
minutes, secondsenacting pain on Israel every single day. Sunday, March th, there were reports that in those times, there
minutes, secondswere times where every hours there was another strike coming down. uh that this
minutes, secondswas just a constant volley and now it is really difficult to hide the damage that is being done to Israel including the
minutes, secondsfact that reports are that Israel has essentially run out of interceptors or is running incredibly low and that the
minutes, secondsUnited States is aware of this. Now here is a big example of this. NBC News itself in Tel Aviv has recorded, this is
minutes, secondslast night, uh they recorded a missile uh being completely completely evading a an Iranian hypersonic missile completely
minutes, secondevading uh so-called Israeli air defenses in hitting Tel Aviv. This is every single night. So, this is a big
minutes, secondspart of where Operation True Promise is at the moment. Every single night,
minutes, secondsIsrael feels the pain of Iranian missile fire while the Gulf region feels the
minutes, secondspain from drone attacks from both Iran and the resistance as well. So, uh that is where Operation True Promise is at the moment.
minutes, secondsAnd this operation is causing a lot of fears within the political establishment, especially in Washington.
minutes, secondsWe've heard reports from Israel itself as well, but right now the big report here is that there's sources close to
minutes, secondsthe administration per Axios. And mind you, Axios has been acting as sorry about that. This always happens with
minutes, secondsStreamyard. Nonetheless, here's the report from Axios. Axios is acting as especially it has over the last few
minutes, secondsyears, it's acted as a conduit of official Washington and the Intel community. And uh what a source from the
minutes, secondsadministration of Donald Trump has said is that there are key officials around Trump who are reluctant who are reluctant about the war and wanted more
minutes, secondstime and that Trump just bypassed all of them and said I want to do it now and that he grossly overestimated his ability to topple the Iranian government
minutes, secondshere the regime short of sending in ground troops. So here is the overall report behind the curtain. The Iran war
minutes, secondsis the first time Trump's style has made it impossible for him to e to easily talk or improvise his way out. Some in his inner circle have what one official
minutes, secondscalled buyer's remorse, growing fears that attacking Iran was a mistake. And now you might be wondering if I'm
minutes, secondsshedding tears. No, I am not shedding tears because this was the making not just of Donald Trump. It was the entire political establishment that allowed
minutes, secondDonald Trump to go full forward with this. Uh there was uh massive agreement across the board, not necessarily on how to do this, but definitely on doing it.
minutes, secondsAnd so it's it really falls at the feet of these wararm mongers and and there's no tears here for this, but nonetheless,
minutes, secondsthis is very revealing. What this demonstrates is that Iran's response,
minutes, secondsthat Iran's ability, I believe their biggest issue is that they didn't know that Iran could do what it's doing right
minutes, secondsnow, that it could go the distance, that now it is demonstrated into week three that it is not depleted. It is not militarily defeated. It does. It's not
minutes, secondsum It's actually going through a persistent and very specific strategy
minutes, secondswhich is only uh escalating the more that time goes on. And uh here is the
minutes, secondsWashington Post. Uh Iran's tactics. Uh Trump is eager to declare victory, but a battered Iran still has cards to play.
minutes, secondsThe US and Israel have crippled Iran's forces in two weeks of war, says the Washington Post. But tan's ability to disrupt oil flows and its uranium stockpile complicate the push to end it.
minutes, secondsSo this is this is the narrative that's coming out everywhere is that Donald Trump doesn't have any path to victory.
minutes, secondsThey don't want to acknowledge Iran's ability to continue fighting and we shouldn't expect uh the Washington elite or anybody within the intelligence
minutes, secondscommunity or anybody within the power structure of the US empire to acknowledge Iran's capabilities. You're not going to get that. But what you're
minutes, secondsgoing to get, what we have seen over and over and over again is a litany of reports that this is just not going
minutes, secondswell. Now, this is regional. Okay, here is Iraq right now. And you might have
minutes, secondsseen that in uh a few days back, I believe it was March th, there was a
minutes, secondsIranian strike on KC tankers in Saudi Arabia, essentially destroying
minutes, secondsthose tankers. No one was injured in that. But then I believe it was not just hours before that there was an Iraqi
minutes, secondsresistance strike or at least a claimed strike from the Iraqi resistance uh uh
minutes, secondsstriking down not one but two KCs going over its airspace. The KC
minutes, secondsuh one of them crashed and I think there were six people who were killed in that debacle or six killed and injured and then of course there was the one that
minutes, secondssafely made it back to Israel's Benhir airport. But now look at the airspace around Iraq right now. It's a little blurry, but just uh note that this is Saudi Arabia and this is north of Syria.
minutes, secondsAnd as you can see, Iraqi airspace is being entirely avoided. And that is a demonstrative sign that this regional war that Iran promised is actually here.
minutes, secondsthat there is a a um there is a massive problem that the US empire faces and that is that it
minutes, secondscannot withstand the uh solidarity of uh
minutes, secondsthe regional forces that have emerged to fight alongside Iran during this time.
minutes, secondsThat is uh one of the things that isn't being talked about and I don't even have the breath or the scope to cover it here because at this time you may know too
minutes, secondsthat Hezbollah is uh is conducting a record amount of operations against Israel. Now, they have a reason to fight
minutes, secondseven beyond Iran because we know that Israel is in the process of committing absolute genocidal war crimes against the Lebanese people right now. And
minutes, secondsthey're using the Iran war as a pretext to be able to escalate again their crimes against humanity, against the
minutes, secondsLebanese people. But so Hezbollah has been reactivated and they have actually been conducting record numbers of operations. They've hit more than a half
minutes, secondsdozen. They destroyed more than a half dozen Marava tanks. Uh their rockets and missiles are hitting northern Israel as
minutes, secondswell and making direct impacts and uh uh Israeli officials have already noted
minutes, secondsthat they are surprised that they have been hit so hard by Hezbollah and that there is no end in sight for that. Okay,
minutes, secondsso this is only getting going from bad to worse for the United States and Israel and and that's likely to continue as this war uh goes on and on and on.
minutes, secondsNow, there are some reports that Operation True Promise has made it so the United States doesn't want to go on
minutes, secondsand on and on with the war, and we've heard this throughout these last couple weeks, but the clamor about them only gets higher. This is Jeremy Scill, the
minutes, secondsrenowned journalist now at Drop Site News, saying Iranian officials say they have been ignoring Wickov's private requests to talk. Trump's special envoy
minutes, secondshas been texting Iran's foreign minister, asking to start talks. Iran says the war will end only when Iran believes it has established longterm
minutes, secondsdeterrence. Donald Trump has been leading a double life and prosecuting the war against Iran. In public, he regularly boasts that Iran's military might has been decimated, its leadership
minutes, secondskilled off, and that few officials remain alive and tan now begging him to talk. They want to negotiate. They want to negotiate badly, Trump said. He said
minutes, secondsthis yesterday, March th. We're talking to them, but I don't think they're ready, but they're pretty close.
minutes, secondsBut according to Abasarachi, according to Iranian officials, uh, no response were sent to Wit Coff's messages. So
minutes, secondsthat is the state of things that shows the level of desperation right now that exists for uh the United States and
minutes, secondstheir officials. But nonetheless, uh there is absolutely no hope for negotiations to continue at this time uh
minutes, secondsor to re-engage at this time because let's be honest, this was a uh crime
minutes, secondsthat Iran cannot allow to stand again because mind you, they were negotiating with the United States during uh the tw
minutes, secondsbefore the -day war happened in those first weeks of June. and Israel was the one to have uh well of course US
minutes, secondssupport. They initiated the first strike, the surprise attack. This time it was the US and Israel as Iran was
minutes, secondsnegotiating with the US. So again these negotiations have been proven to be a farce and operation true promise for
minutes, secondswaves and multiple waves. You can see it follow aliadin. You can see the announcements from the Iranian military.
minutes, secondsThere's at least three to five announced that's almost per day of waves of missile strikes and drone strikes coming down on some targets. I believe as we
minutes, secondsspeak Aloud Day is coming under fire. We know Kuwait has become a major target and of course the Israeli regime it has
minutes, secondsbecome an ongoing target, one that will continue to face daily bombardment until
minutes, secondseverybody until there is that long-term deterrence that uh uh that Iran is seeking. They want to make sure they've
minutes, secondssaid this now over and over and over again over the last several days that they cannot be attacked again. And that means essentially ejecting the United
minutes, secondsStates out of the region militarily and doing that in the the best way possible for Iran, the most peaceful way
minutes, secondspossible, quote unquote, without a bloodbath, but uh through strategic strikes and hits using their arsenal to
minutes, secondseliminate the uh technology, the infrastructure that allows the US to even be there because it doesn't matter those to troops, they
minutes, secondsdon't really matter. They're they're hiding in hotels. They can't do anything if their bases are disabled. Uh the
minutes, secondsUnited States is now sending Marines from Japan to uh the Middle East
minutes, secondsin what is likely going to be a likely a very disastrous and catastrophic operation to seize some part of the
minutes, secondscoastline or to try to take back the straight of Hormuz via uh some uh crazy
minutes, secondsoperation or what many people have said uh try to seize the oil at Car island and try to squeeze Iran in that way
minutes, secondsthrough some kind of raid. It's going to be a big disaster if they do that because obviously Iran is ready. And here is the spokesperson for the Iranian
minutes, secondsuh uh military who spoke in English this time actually mocking epic fury the operation that Donald Trump in the
minutes, secondsUnited States is waging against Iran. Uh this is this is kind of an indication of where things are at right now. Message to the president of the United States.
minutes, secondsThe outcome of war cannot be determined by tweets. The result of a war is determined in the field. The very place
minutes, secondswhere you and your forces do not dare to approach and you can only talk about it in your tweets. It's better to name this war as epic fear instead of epic fury.
minutes, secondsEpic fear. So that is what Iran sees right now. They're smelling fear. They see that the United States is on the
minutes, secondsback foot in many ways. We're going to get into the straight of Hermuz at the end of the show because it's a critical example of this and we can see the meltdown happening in real time. Now,
minutes, secondsthe United States and Israel have killed over I believe people in Iran. Uh there's plus injured that we know
minutes, secondsof. They are targeting civilian infrastructure and targets. They're doing what they know how to do in terms
minutes, secondsof waging war. Uh they are trying to exact the maximum amount of pain on the
minutes, secondsIranian population. But as you may have seen in multiple videos across my social media, for example, uh there are just
minutes, secondsnumerous examples after example after example of how the Iranian people are
minutes, secondsjust not intimidated by the uh uh uh by the violence, the wanton
minutes, secondsviolence of the empire. Here is one Iranian who said, "We are not afraid of the United States because God is greater and God is with us." Well, if you can see the video here, watch what happens.
minutes, secondsI'm not going to play it on sound. Uh,
minutes, secondsbut I will uh uh I will show you what happens. There's the strike. And do you notice how nobody is running away? This
minutes, secondswas during coup's day. I mean, this is this is what's happening in Iran. People are rallying every single day. There are
minutes, secondsbombs dropped over their head and they are staying out in the street uh
minutes, secondscheering and demanding and chanting slogans on defending their sovereignty and getting the US and Israel out of their country. That is the situation.
minutes, secondsThis is I mean this is the way of war.
minutes, secondsThis is how the United States and Israel have always done things. They try to raise, they try to quote, I've even seen the Western mainstream media say that Israel's mowing the lawn in Iran, which
minutes, secondsis absolutely ridiculous uh because there's just no comparison between Iran and Palestine who they've colonized. But nonetheless, that is the kind of
minutes, secondsrhetoric you hear coming out of the United States and Israel that they that they are trying to exact maximum pain.
minutes, secondsYou hear Pete Hex all the time bragging about it. And now Iranian people are showing both through their uh military
minutes, secondsthat uh that is putting up an incredible fight. One that I think a lot of people did not expect over the last several
minutes, secondsyears. I got a lot of I got a lot of crap on this channel. Everyone people were saying, "Danny, Operation True Promise three, when is it coming?
minutes, secondsWhen are they going to happen? You keep saying Iran has this and that capability. Um and yet they're not doing anything. They're not making a first
minutes, secondsmove. All of this." Now we see why. Now we see that Iran was preparing for the long haul. They were preparing for a
minutes, secondslong war knowing rightfully so and smartly that the United States was eventually going to go for the jugular
minutes, secondsand that they were going to throw everything they had at Iran. And Iran wanted to initiate an operation that could not be stopped by the United
minutes, secondsStates. And this is the big crisis now that Iran's operations have caused. the UAE, its oil port at Fujira,
minutes, secondsBahrain, Kuwait, we can go on and on and on. Qatar has shut off its gas. This is a big crisis and the straight of Hormuz
minutes, secondsis closed. Iran has seized the initiative and now it's about who will not blink first, but break first. Uh and
minutes, secondsit looks increasingly like uh the United States is trying to just buy time and seek a a a solution a kind of uh uh
minutes, secondsopportunity to declare victory without v victory even being anywhere within the grasp of the empire. So so this is a
minutes, secondsmonumental moment in history and we all need to be aware of this. Now one of the really interesting developments that
minutes, secondshave occurred everybody in at this time has to do with the fact that we know that over the years Israel has lost an
minutes, secondsimmense amount of legitimacy across the entire world especially the western world where people in Europe and the
minutes, secondsUnited States have witnessed what Israel did and continues to do to Gaza, Lebanon and of course what it's done uh against
minutes, secondsIran in its to now uh violent attacks on the Iranian uh uh people and government.
minutes, secondsSo uh people have been losing uh any kind of sympathy, legitimacy, any kind
minutes, secondsof support for the state of Israel for now many years. Now we're into the third year since October th, One of the
minutes, secondsthings that has happened during this time is of course there's been a lot of information being out shown out there and spread out there even across X that
minutes, secondsisn't even real right a lot of even Iranian missile attacks and things like this that have been repurposed or recycled and but we also have Grock and
minutes, secondsX trying to tell us that uh real attacks on Israel real strikes on Israel are fake so there's a huge propaganda war
minutes, secondsmassive fog of war however One development that cannot be ignored is this huge conversation happening all
minutes, secondsacross social media, especially X on the whereabouts of Benjamin Netanyahu.
minutes, secondsBecause let's be honest, Benjamin Netanyahu has not been very present at this time, especially as strikes have
minutes, secondsescalated on Israel, leading to massive numbers of people wondering, is Netanyahu dead or is Netanyahu alive?
minutes, secondsbecause Iran has said from the very beginning that they were targeting him. This is something they've done before.
minutes, secondsWell, here is what Ben Swan says. And I just want to say before I play this that nothing I'm going to play here or talk
minutes, secondsabout here. I am not an expert on AI or anything like this, forensic analysis of videos, etc. So, none of this is my
minutes, secondsopinion, but uh I will give my opinion after what I think has actually happened to Netanyahu. Is he dead or alive? But
minutes, secondshere is Ben Swan's take going for the there's a big issue uh position questioning where actually is this guy
minutes, secondsgiven very strange reactions to the social media phenomenon to this massive conversation taking place of where is
minutes, secondsBenjamin Netanyahu. Netanyahu himself has come out with a few videos in recent hours. Well, here's Ben Swan's reaction
minutes, secondsto all of this. I'm actually going to clip this out if you catch it in the replay. I'm going to clip out that segment and just put the link in the
minutes, secondsvideo description for people to watch in case you're wondering where it is uh if you watch it later on after the show
minutes, secondsbecause the music um there's a lot of violations and stuff when music is playing in the background and if it's copyright. But nonetheless,
minutes, secondsI wanted to uh just comment a bit on this because that last point was exactly the point I wanted to harp on because I
minutes, secondscan't look what Bentoan is saying those videos they look very awkward and suspicious and and if I were to just say
minutes, secondsif look at them I would say at the very least they feel staged and somewhat doctorred. Okay, that there's some kind of manipulation going on. I won't say that they're completely AI generated.
minutes, secondsI'm not going to say that he's dead at the moment. I can't verify that. I cannot confirm that. But what I will say
minutes, secondsis that it is very strange that he is uh supposedly going around cafes,
minutes, secondsgoing to a cafe, having a nice time as his country is being uh bombarded by
minutes, secondsIran as Israel is engaged in this wanton violence daily and that they have so-called these massive strategic goals
minutes, secondsthat they want to achieve against Iran that he wouldn't as the prime minister of Israel be out front like he was during the October th after October
minutes, secondsafter October th genocide uh giving uh con constant commentary like he was
minutes, secondsduring that time on the war itself. He's not addressing it. He's just saying look I'm alive. Look, you can see my hands.
minutes, secondsYou can see uh you know that I'm out and about and and he's wearing the same uniform both videos. There's obviously a huge element of staging of PR. I mean,
minutes, secondswe shouldn't be surprised by this because Israel is very well known for its capacity to lie and to do what it
minutes, secondscan to manipulate the electronic airwaves, the algorithms, and everything to promote Israeli genocidal lies. But
minutes, secondsthis this really takes the cake as something that's incredibly strange given that we know that Iran said in the
minutes, secondsvery beginning that he uh I mean we know that Netanyahu uh uh that Iran said in the very beginning that they were going
minutes, secondsto target Netanyahu and that they actually did and they didn't really know his whereabouts. They couldn't confirm that he was dead, but nonetheless,
minutes, secondsregardless of whether he's dead or not,
minutes, secondscan't confirm that. But it's very strange that he is going about it in this way and that his team, his administration is going about it in this
minutesway to um uh uh to address the social media
minutes, secondsfirestorm about this. So Netanyahu posts a video. So this is about the first video that you saw in Ben Swan's report.
minutes, secondsUh, nonetheless, here's what Reuters had to say about verifying it. They said that they were able to verify the video's location from file imagery of
minutes, secondsthe cafe, which matched the interior seen the video. The date was verified from multiple videos and photos of Netanyahu's visit posted by the cafe on
minutes, secondsthat very day. But nonetheless, that doesn't really convince anybody of anything because we know that Israel
minutes, secondsitself is huge into staging. We know during the Gaza genocide that they were even staging these kind of surreners by
minutes, secondsHamas and you know what they were doing on the field that they didn't really want to get into confrontations with the
minutes, secondsarmed resistance. So they would avoid it and then they would try to bribe and utilize uh desperate people to show that
minutes, secondsthey were um that they were bludgeoning uh Gaza and they they were getting Hamas to surrender. And then of course there's
minutes, secondsall of the footage during the Iran uh strikes of uh old videos being published
minutes, secondsof so-called uh strikes on military infrastructure in Iran being dated years back from other prior um you know other
minutes, secondsprior strikes including uh uh during the -day war. So Israel and the United States have been accusing everybody else of doing this but they have been doing it too including and especially Israel.
minutes, secondsOne of the biggest things that was very suspicious about this is that Netanyahu was absent from here. Okay. He was
minutes, secondsabsent from the the latest military council meeting uh uh and it was held
minutes, secondsinstead by Israel cats. That to me is very unusual and seems to indicate that if Netanyahu is not dead, if he's uh
minutes, secondsisn't dead, then he must be in deep and severe hiding or he's very injured.
minutes, secondsOkay? He's either very injured and now if those videos you take them at face value, then you say, "Okay, he doesn't look very injured, but there's questions
minutes, secondsabout prostate cancer, etc. Maybe he's very sick." But in my opinion, if you want to know my conclusion about this,
minutes, secondsall of these signs and clues that Ben Swan went over and then these that I'm going over here, I think that they
minutes, secondsdemonstrate that he's in hiding and that he's very worried for his life. That at any moment Iran has very precise
minutes, secondsintelligence about where he is and if he steps out in the wrong place in Tel Aviv and even Jerusalem. he was out in Jerusalem in the occupied territories
minutes, secondsum trying to make it look like he was in control there. But nonetheless, it's obvious that there's so much staging
minutes, secondsthere that they're probably trying to rush in and out of these kind of scenarios in order to get him back into
minutes, secondsa bunker and into hiding. Um uh this is a report that he missed his seventh street security cabinet meeting.
minutes, secondsEveryone else was in attendance. Where is Benjamin Netanyahu? Now, Iran has said that they're going to pursue uh
minutes, secondsNetanyahu and eliminate him, eradicate him when they do find him. And I just want to play this uh just for good
minutes, secondsmeasure that uh Iran is able to target bunkers. Now, I don't know how heavily fortified the bunkers that Israeli
minutes, secondsofficials are using are, but Iran's missiles have successfully struck an underground bunker under a building in Tel Aviv. And so these bunkers are not
minutes, secondseven providing the kind of support for and the kind of protection for Israeli so-called citizens, the Israeli settlers
minutes, secondsas they may have in the past because Iran has continuously been updating their missiles. The Karashimar I don't I
minutes, secondscan't say it for that cluster munition supposedly really a cluster munition but it breaks apart going at hypersonic
minutes, secondsspeeds Mach Mach and it's breaking apart. It's hitting everywhere at massive speeds with huge impact and
minutes, secondsuh you you can't defend yourself against it and and Iran continues to make progress in this regard. So
minutes, secondsthis is uh where the Netanyahu situation. It's very strange. It's very odd. When I saw these videos, I thought to myself, if they're not completely AI,
minutes, secondsthere's got to be problems with them.
minutes, secondsThey have to be stage managed. The lighting is really awkward. Everything about them to me was incredibly awkward.
minutes, secondsUh the incredibly staged. And I think really what it shows is that uh Israel
minutes, secondshas completely lost control of the narrative that it cannot Okay. And I'm
minutes, secondsjust going to pull up uh I'm going to put it on mute uh but the Ben Swan uh video again just to show various
minutes, secondshighlights from those videos that he was playing because if you just look at like this is incredibly awkward. Look at the
minutes, secondslighting, everything about it, the outfit, uh it's so staged. There's nothing genuine about this. Not. And not
minutes, secondsnot to mention the fact that he is trying to prove that he's alive, which means you've already lost here. You've
minutes, secondslost the narrative. Not only do people wish you were dead, which a lot of people do because of what happened in Gaza, because of what continues to
minutes, secondshappen in Gaza, what's happening to Iran, what's happening in Lebanon, but people want to see. I mean, this is just
minutes, secondsuh absolutely like look look at this video. It just does not look real. It looks and and look at him having to prove that he has
minutes, secondsfive fingers because there was a video in question.
minutes, secondsI can actually pull that one up. I can find that and pull that one up. Uh it's all about this video in question that
minutes, secondwas about him having altered teeth maybe and six fingers on one of his hands. Uh
minutes, secondsa lot of people said that it wasn't genuine. And I can't, you know, I I I can't uh uh verify it. I'm not an expert
minutes, secondsat this stuff. And there's just very different answers and different takes by so many uh people, but but here you can
minutes, secondssee one example of this. I'll just pull it up because it's it's viral everywhere all over X. Um you know, here you have
minutes, secondsNetanyahu. Uh and people claim that they saw six fingers on him as he was speaking. Let me just turn off
minutes, secondsthe volume here. And this is the video in question, okay? because it was a public address that he gave in March.
minutes, secondsOkay, as you can see, I'm having technical difficulties again with Streamyard, but here here we go. Here it
minutes, secondsis. Okay, uh this is the video in question. Okay. He was giving a speech
minutes, secondsuh to a video recording and everyone thought that this was AI, that there was something very strange about this video,
minutes, secondsthat he had six fingers um and that his teeth look like they were different. They were altered. Uh nonetheless,
minutes, secondshard to say. But I will say this that Netanyahu is hiding. And he's hiding because Iran and the resistance, the
minutes, secondsPalestinian people, all the entire resistance has the initiative right now in terms of where they stand in history.
minutes, secondsThe world is seeing what who is the problem, what is the problem in the region and in the world. What is causing the destruction? Who is causing the
minutes, secondsdestruction? Who is uh the uh genocide dare? Who is the wararmonger? This is
minutes, secondsthe problem for Netanyahu. Not even Israel likes Netanyahu at this point because of all of his corruption
minutesbaggage. But the bigger question here is why does Netanyahu feel compelled to hide? Shouldn't he feel protected first
minutes, secondsof all by his regime? And shouldn't he feel protected by that superior Israeli military? Shouldn't he feel protected by Israeli people who put their trust and
minutes, secondshopes in Netanyahu? No. None of these things are the case. Netanyahu is a man who has committed decades worth of war
minutes, secondscrimes, crimes against humanity. And now with this war, Israel has bitten off more than it can chew and it is paying
minutes, secondsthe price for this. And so this is why Netanyahu can't show up in public because there have been reports too that
minutes, secondsIran has intelligence inside of Israel that they have been turning Israelis against Netanyahu that they have a
minutes, secondsstrategy because not a lot of people like Netanyahu. So they have a strategy of using their intelligence to try to turn people against Netanyahu so they
minutes, secondscan get intelligence on him and therefore they can conduct operations like the one they are now which is to pursue him and to eliminate him and to
minutes, secondsforce him into where he is now which is hiding. That is I think what's going on.
minutes, secondsWe can't I know it's really satis unsatisfactory to not get an answer. Is he dead? Is he alive? But I wouldn't be
minutes, secondssurprised if he were dead. I wouldn't be because eventually with a such a tiny colony that Israel is constantly wanting
minutes, secondsto fight wars, pursuing wars, constantly wanting to pursue not just wars but of course unjust wars, wars of expansion,
minutes, secondswars for greater Israel's war for wars that require massive amounts of uh war
minutes, secondscrimes, uh genocide, violence, this uh violence that is abhored not just by the international community and inshallah
minutes, secondsbut the world right people don't want most people don't want to see this unless you are a sociopath in this class
minutes, secondsin this uh elite class of oligarchs capitalist imperialists who uh thrive and profit off of it but everyone else
minutes, secondsdoesn't want it turned against Israel the world has public opinion is the lowest it's been so I would not be
minutes, secondssurprised if one Netanyahu is dead but two that Netanyahu felt that every single single day left of his political
minutes, secondscareer, he felt like he needed to hide because Israel can't stop fighting wars for his sake. He needs these wars to stay out of uh jail.

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Part 2 of 2

Uh but nonetheless,
Israel also can't stop fighting because it has now placed itself in an existential uh situation, an existential crisis. either it stops what it's doing
and faces the wrath of uh people in not only in the region but also the world who want to see massive changes to
the situation regarding Palestine and of course the self-determination of people everywhere there but then or uh you know
uh he they they wait they continue to wage war which will at the very least help Israel attempt to achieve these
horrific objectives but unfortunately leave it vulnerable to pot the possibility of defeat which has always
been the position here which is if you look at this objectively if you see this object not because just because I am uh
minutes, secondsof course % against what the Israeli regime does. Yeah, I am. Uh but it's not even about that. It's looking at things
objectively. small little colony. Just because it's backed and souped up and armed to the teeth by the United States,
just because it has nuclear weapons, plus of them, doesn't mean it can do whatever it wants forever, doesn't mean that people won't rise up and stand up.
minutes, secondsAnd that's what it has seen over the last three years from the Palestinian resistance to Hezbollah. Look at what Hezbollah is doing now. All right,
minutes, secondsHezbollah is shocking Israel into a complete uh flurry of desperation and fear. And then of course what Iran is
minutes, secondsdoing, Operation True Promise three before it during the -day war, uh showing and teaching Israel a lesson of
minutes, secondscourse that it won't heed it can't it's incapable of learning lessons. But uh Iran has made it quite clear that it's going to continue to pound the Israeli
minutes, secondsregime for as long as it can and it needs to to ensure that it is not a danger to Iran but also to the rest of
minutes, secondsthe region. So this is not a safe situation for Netanyahu. There's domestic issues of course the corruption and all of this but those issues can uh
minutes, secondswon't uh end his career unless or won't end his political life and won't end the political life of the
minutes, secondspe his you know uh team of war mongering genocidal maniacs um until the entire
minutes, secondscolony uh experiences a massive transformation that will come about based on this holy war that they're trying to fight. They're trying to fight
minutes, secondsthis so-called holy war, which is really a land war. It's an expansionist war.
minutes, secondsIt's a genocidal one, but it's one that likely is, at least the position of this channel has always been, it's not winnable. And Iran has stood up and
minutes, secondssaid, "Yeah, let me show you why this is not a winnable war." That history shows
minutes, secondsthat uh colonial regimes do not stand the test of time. that eventually
minutes, secondsself-determination will prevail and then it's all about what happens afterward and the struggle of what that self-determination actually looks like
minutes, secondswhether it's actually fulfilled or whether it turns into something else which unfortunately has happened in a lot of countries but nonetheless
minutes, secondsIsrael's model is outmoded and that means Netanyahu being a fervent uh uh what is his name uh Mr. uh Milikowski,
minutes, secondsright? This this guy uh who like all Israelis are settlers who are sitting and squatting on the Palestinian
minutes, secondspeople's heads and uh you know also terrorizing Lebanon and the region and Syria and elsewhere and now Iran. Uh uh they are living in an outmoded system.
minutes, secondsThey are living in one that is hellbent on destroying everything to achieve the survival and expansion of their outmoded
minutes, secondssystem. And now Iran is here to um make it very difficult and the rest of the resistance has also stood up as well in
minutes, secondsIraq in um you know in Lebanon and Hezb Hezbollah and Lebanon etc. So in Yemen we haven't even talked about Yemen yet.
minutes, secondsYemen Yemen is coming guys. Yemen is coming at the Babel Mendub strait. They are going to close that thing very soon. So it doesn't look good. So Netanyahu,
minutes, secondshe may be alive, but he's hiding. And he's not he is not a brave person. He is not a brave man. He is a coward. He is
minutes, secondssomeone who's hiding in a bunker, a heavily fortified bunker. He's making, if he actually is making these videos,
minutes, secondsare there just doctorred AI little clips that are being staged? Whatever it is,
minutes, secondshe's out there doing what should be seen as some of the most pathetic displays of what it looks like to be a dying,
minutes, secondslosing, outmoded order that only can accomplish the most disgusting and vile
minutes, secondsforms of violence and uh genocide and uh uh terrorism that exist on this planet.
minutes, secondsAnd that's all you have. That's all you've got. You got nothing else. You can't offer anything else. And thus
minutes, secondsdon't be surprised when karma when this all of what you have done comes boomeranging boomeranging back to you
minutes, secondsand backfiring on you and that's what's happening to Benjamin Netanyahu. Even just the narrative, just the fact that
minutes, secondspeople are talking about Netanyahu in this way should be a sign enough that
minutes, secondsthe Israeli regime has has entered what is its dying and decaying phase of the Zionist Israeli
minutes, secondscolony. Let's be quite honest about that. This is a watershed moment where Israel both faces a military economic uh existential crisis in front of it,
minutes, secondspolitical crisis in front of it worldwide and now it's also facing a nar it's even worse is the narrative crisis
minutes, secondsand the legitimacy crisis that Netanyahu's death controversy is a huge part of. So here we are. We're this is going this is not going to stop either.
minutes, secondsPeople are like, "Guys, stop. Every you know, Dave Damp, who's a great journalist, anti-Worder COVID, posted something like, "All right, everyone needs to stop this." And I laugh and I'm
minutes, secondslike, "Yeah, maybe people need to stop uh uh uh spending so much of their time wondering if this video or or whatever
minutes, secondsof Netanyahu is real." But it's a sign of something. It's a sign that this is a new era that Israel has ushered in for
minutes, secondsitself and one that is rapidly uh moving toward its demise. That's where we are.
minutesSo, we have one more segment everybody.
minutes, secondsOkay. I wanted definitely want to talk about the net situation. It's wild everybody. I mean, this is a wild situation. But I wanted to quickly now
minutes, secondsuh go over the what I believe is just the absolute
minutes, secondscheckmate that um Iran has accomplished in this time, in this war. It's it's
minutes, secondsIt's just, you know, it's hard to describe historically what this moment really means for the world in words
minutes, secondsbecause when moments happen historically that are watershed and that are gamechanging and that actually um
minutes, secondsmove us into a period of history geopolitically, economically, all of that globally um we we won't have words
minutes, secondsfor it because we haven't experienced it yet. And that's where we are right now.
minutes, secondsWe are in a watershed moment. We are in a moment. This is how I summarize this.
minutes, secondsThis is how I want you all to take away my, you know, if you see anything in the wisdom that I impart to take this away
minutes, secondsfrom me, which is we are in a moment where the US empire now confronts a
minutes, secondsworld order where the wars that are to be fought in the future are ones that it's not just that the US empire cannot
minutes, secondswin them. It's that the US empire now is going to fight wars that are not only
minutes, secondsunwinable but are demonstrative of a level of capability among the so-called adversial adversarial states, nations, governments,
minutes, secondsmilitaries, etc. that are not necessarily equal to but up to the task
minutes, secondsof not just confronting the US empire but defeating it. So in many ways you could argue Russia and China militaries
minutes, secondsthat have the capabilities to overwhelm the US military u technologically
minutes, seconduh with its advances uh the generations of fighter jets of ballistic missiles hypersonic missiles etc. With Iran, you
minutes, secondscould say, well, Iran doesn't necessarily have the ability to stop,
minutes, secondsfor example, the aerial bombardment of Thran in standoff strikes using Aegis,
minutes, secondsJD dams, these kind of things, these missiles that the US has spent so much money on investing. But what we are
minutes, secondswitnessing now is that one, the US blows billions in munitions in these strikes and will eventually run out because this
minutes, secondsis how the US military-industrial complex works. It The US military contractors only produce as much as will
minutes, secondsget them the contract that they want in the negotiation with the federal government. They're not here to produce for some kind of strategy. They're here
minutes, secondsto produce for profit. But it's even worse than this because uh the US empire as an empire of hubist and
minutes, secondsexceptionalism believes that it can um uh rely on a limited amount of
minutes, secondsmunitions to essentially shock and awe destroy their way in rapid fashion into victory. And now that era has ended. uh
minutes, secondsthere is no going in raising a a country a population and with the adversaries
minutes, secondsthat has left uh confronting it there's no doing that not to two of the three countries are nuclear in terms of their
minutes, secondscapabilities they have nuclear weapons and then Iran which has uh rejected nuclear development weapons development it has both air defense systems and
minutes, secondsballistic and drone missile systems and a huge military and um a huge military that's also experienced and has a lot of
minutes, secondscombat experience. So you have a lot of factors here and of course the terrain and all the massive population advancement scientifically,
minutes, secondstechnologically, not just militarily but also the human side, the social side. So we're talking about a a country, a civilization that is not going to be one
minutes, secondsthat can just be toppled in a shock and awe kind of strike like the United States had hoped. So that's the watershed moment we are in. It's no long
minutes, secondsthis is this is what we are going to see for as long as the US empire is allowed to stand by the population uh that it
minutes, secondspresides over within its uh borders within its imperial borders. Uh for as long as it stands this this is how it's going to be. The US is going to make
minutes, secondsmiscalculations. It is going to find itself pushed back and then we have to be ready for the fallout of that. That's
minutes, secondswhat we're seeing right now with the closure of the straight of hormuz. The closure of the straight of Hormuz is very real and it's happening. The US has
minutes, secondstried to cast doubt on this. They've tried to say that the straight of Hormuz is actually kind of open sort of but no
minutes, secondsit is actually at this point everybody it is fully closed. And this is what we
minutes, secondshave been saying for so long. Hormuz ship traffic has fallen to zero since February th. It had been declining
minutes, secondssteadily but as of this date there were zero ships crossing the straight of
minutes, secondsHormuz. Um now what the uh Iranian government has said is that
minutes, secondswhile the straight of Hormuz is closed there is uh a possibility to work with
minutes, secondsIran to communicate with Iran to ensure that if you're going to get if you're if you're going to be allowed to cross that you're uh doing so in a way that's legal
minutes, secondsand to Iran that that respects Iran's authority to close the straight from So essentially Iran dictate dictates the
minutes, secondsterms here. Now Donald Trump is very desperate right now because he is seeing the writing on the wall or at least he's probably being told that there's writing
minutes, secondson the wall that he needs to look at. Uh while oil prices are falling here because the western mainstream media loves to keep it very positive about
minutes, secondthings so that people don't panic uh as this crisis continues. Nonetheless,
minutes, secondsuh Trump is trying to get allies in Europe and NATO and even non allies like uh uh China to
minutes, secondsescort tankers. So, you remember, you might remember that Donald Trump was trying to demand not too long ago that
minutes, secondsthe Navy do this, right? That the Navy should be escorting tankers and the US Navy said no. But now he's trying to get other countries to do it. Um and of
minutes, secondscourse they are saying pound sand. But I just want to play I just want to show you this that while oil prices are falling because every time Donald Trump says okay we're going to get this to
minutes, secondsescort this we're going to announce a coalition that's going of countries that's going to escort tankers in the straight of Hormuz. Um nonetheless it
minutes, secondspassed $per barrel uh very recently and settled at $now but prices have
minutes, secondssurged % during the US Iran war and that's the highest level since
minutes, secondsBrent closed at above $for the first time in four years within the last week.
minutes, secondsSo, this is a crisis and it's one that uh is going to only get worse as time
minutes, secondsgoes on. Now, another report here before I get into Donald Trump's words on the matter, NPR, uh I'm doing this on
minutes, secondspurpose because Fox News right now is just playing cheerleader. And while NPR and the Western mainstream media and the liberal side isn't adversarial at all,
minutes, secondsthey just are mad at Trump for not waging this war in the way they wish he would wage it, which is to develop a
minutes, secondsdomestic force and do it very um you know have the right kind of PR, have the right plan, all this stuff. It's it's
minutes, secondsjust it's the same thing. They they want war with Iran. They just don't like the way he did it. Trump demands NATO and China police the trade of Hormuzu. So far they aren't joining. So this is war
minutes, secondsis entering the third week. Israel is saying it wants three more weeks of war.
minutes, secondsAnd President Trump is demanding other countries help secure the straight of Hormuz with countries not reacting positively to this demand. China,
minutes, secondsFrance, Japan, South Korea, the United Kingdom and others should send warships.
minutes, secondsIn the Financial Times, Trump warned it would be very bad for the future of NATO if countries fail to um to do this. But
minutes, secondsuh UK Prime Minister Kmer rebuffed this um while taking necessary action to defend ourselves and our allies. We will not be drawn to a wider war. Germany
minutes, secondssees no role for NATO in policing the straight of Hormuz. As long as this war continues, there will be no involvement even in an option to keep the straight
minutes, secondsof Hormuz open by military means. So Spain and Italy also said they won't send ships to the strait and China of course saying it would not help secure
minutes, secondsthe straight and called for an end to hostilities. So no one is going for this and Donald Trump is big mad as you can
minutes, secondsexpect. This is always the case for Donald Trump. Here's what he had to say in reaction to the constant rebuffing that he has received for this demand
minutes, secondsthat other countries now open up the straight of Hormuz forum.
minutes, secondsEncourage other nations whose economies depend on the strait far more than ours.
minutes, secondsYou know, we get less than % of our oil from the strait and uh some countries get much more. Japan gets %.
minutes, secondsChina gets %, many of the Europeans get quite a quite a bit, South Korea gets %.
minutes, secondsSo we want them to come and help us with the strait. Uh we have it in very good shape. the countries. I said, "We've
minutes, secondsalready taken care of Iran, but now uh because of the fact that literally a single terrorist can put something in
minutes, secondsthe water or shoot something or shoot a missile, a small missile, and it's fairly close range because it is a tight
minutes, secondsarea and which is one of the reasons they've always used that as a weapon.
minutes, secondsIran has always used that as an economic weapon and uh it's not going to be able to use be used very long. Uh numerous
minutes, secondscountries have told me they're on the way. Some are very enthusiastic about it and some are. And some are countries that we've helped for many, many years.
minutes, secondsWe've protected them from horrible outside sources and they weren't that enthusiastic.
minutes, secondsAnd the level enthusia of enthusiasm, it matters to me. We have some countries where we have
minutes, secondssoldiers, great soldiers, protecting them from harm's way. And we have done a
minutes, secondsgreat job and when we want to know, do you have any mind sweepers? Well, would rather not get involved, sir.
minutes, secondsSo, do you see the approach here by Donald Trump? The approach here is to say, and this is typical US empire, just
minutes, secondsin very crash Trump fashion, you have everyone who's rejecting me and rejecting the United States actually should be appreciating the United States
minutes, secondsbecause the United States is protecting uh uh everybody that we do business, everyone that is supposedly our allies,
minutes, secondsyou know, whether it's NATO European countries, whether it's the Gulf States,
minutes, secondsetc. But of course, none of that is true. None of that is true. This whole disaster of the Iran war has done the opposite of protect Gulf States. They
minutes, secondshave gotten hammered. Even the New York Times has acknowledged that the damage to the bases in the region and the
minutes, secondsdamage of just what happens when you have missile volleys and and and salvos and and drone strikes in your country.
minutes, secondsWhat that does to the oil, but also what that does to the bases, it renders it inoperable because of the fear and also because of the damage that's been done to US bases.
minutes, secondsNo, there isn't a level of safety that's increased. The US by bombing Iran has made the region less safe because now
minutes, secondsIran of course feels compelled that it has to protect itself and that it has the right to protect itself and that it has to enact a certain level of pain
hour, secondsagainst the aggressors so that they stop. And that means all the bases around the region and the countries that allow those bases to occupy them that
hour, secondsthey're targets. And this is I mean this is uh where we are right now uh in terms of
hour, secondsthe level of absolute um you know cope that comes with uh what
hour, secondsshould happen with the straight of her moose now that it is completely closed.
hour, secondsNow, Donald Trump has not only went after other countries in this regard,
hour, secondsbut he's also gone after his own Pentagon. According to the New York Times, at a meeting in the Oval Office last week, a frustrated Mr. Trump
hour, secondspressed Dan Raisen Cage, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, about why the US could not immediately reopen the straight. And the answer was
hour, secondsstraightforward. Even one Iranian soldier or militia member zipping across the narrow neck of the straight in a speedboat could fire a mobile missile right into a slowmoving super tanker or
hour, minute, secondplant a limpit mine on its hull. Sorry about that everyone. I've got to remove this. This always happens. Here we go.
hour, minute, secondsUm, blame Streamyard for this technical difficulties. So, here it is. Here's the New York Times. At a meeting in the Oval Office last week, it frustrated Mr.
hour, minute, secondsTrump pressed Dan Kaine, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, about why the United States could not immediately reopen the Straight of Hormuz. The answer was straightforward. Even one
hour, minute, secondsIranian soldier and militia member zipping across the narrow neck of the straight in a speedboat could fire a mobile missile right into a slowmoving
hour, minute, secondssuper tanker or plant a mine on its hull. So there there you have it.
hour, minute, secondsThere's there's no way you can militarily take this back because while you could say Iran's uh massive, you know, naval fleet, it's it's big ships
hour, minute, secondsthat really wasn't using for anything, a lot of them were docked already that were shot down uh by US air strikes,
hour, minute, secondsstandoff strikes that uh eliminated the Navy. And in many ways, yeah, those ships are gone. Many of them, including the war crime that happened off the coast of Sri Lanka.
hour, minutes, secondsUm, but Iran has massive numbers of smaller vessels that are armed with anti-ship missiles and other kinds of uh
hour, minutes, secondsdrone technology and offensive weaponry that will take out these tankers and they already have. We've shown them here in the Persian Gulf. They've taken out
hour, minutes, secondstankers. Uh they've hit them. They hit two, I believe, in one night just to demonstrate that this can happen and
hour, minutes, secondsthat it will happen should Iran's demands not be met. Well, what are these demands and and are they reasonable?
hour, minutes, secondsWell, here are the possible conditions to open up the straight of Hormuz according to the Iranian media outlet testim guaranteed lifting of sanctions
hour, minutes, secondswhich is part of the Iranian nuclear negotiations from the beginning. Now, withdrawal of American bases, well,
hour, minutes, secondsthat's a given uh now that Iran has declared that these assets are a danger to its territorial integrity and
hour, minutes, secondssovereignty. A verifiable fact. Return of frozen assets. Well, that's just like with Russia and Venezuela and other
hour, minutes, secondscountries. Why does the US have the right to freeze assets of another country? It just should not have that right. And the development of non-dollar
hour, minutes, secondstrade, a new order in the Middle East essentially. Well, that's that's all that can really exist. That can that's
hour, minutes, secondsall that really should exist. Um and now there's another part of this though,
hour, minutes, secondsokay, that that uh people need to understand and that is that Iran is
hour, minutes, secondsmaking a very critical demand uh about when when it comes to nond dollar trade.
hour, minutes, secondsOkay, because what Iran has said is that it will allow okay it will allow tankers
hour, minutes, secondsto uh uh to pass the trade of hormones under a condition which is very interesting under the condition that it
hour, minutes, secondssettles its payments of that oil in Chinese UN. That is something that it
hour, minutes, secondshas made clear that could be this is what an Iranian official has said. Okay,
hour, minutes, secondsan Iranian official has said and this is here is Ben Norton. He told CNN that Iran is considering allowing a limited
hour, minutes, secondsnumber of tankers to pass through the straight of Hormuz provided the oil car gargo is traded in Chinese UN. a senior
hour, minutes, secondsIranian official told CN well we don't know how we don't know if that's actually going to transpire we don't you know that that takes a lot of economic
hour, minutes, secondsarchitecture but even just putting it out there is a signal that the United the United States has been put on notice and so has the entire petro dollar
hour, minutes, secondsinfrastructure and architecture which requires a lot more than just the US. It requires US dominance but it requires the complicity of Europe and the Gulf
hour, minutes, secondsstates and of course um how oil is traded, how energy is traded and how the dollar is denominated as the reserve currency. It's all on notice. The fin
hour, minutesentire global financial system that the United States has presided over, it's on notice and you know it it's only going
hour, minutes, secondsto get worse because Iran is going on the offensive according to drop site news. It's not going to stop at the straight of horses. It's not going to
hour, minutes, secondsstart at this choke point. No, it's Iran is going to expand its targets not just to military infrastructure but also to
hour, minutes, secondsthe economic infrastructure that makes that military infrastructure possible.
hour, minutes, secondsAnd here's a list of corporations. They have said evacuate from every citizen of these countries, foreigners, anyone need
hour, minutes, secondsto evacuate from the following. uh they need to leave the Loheed Martin uh global market liaison office the
hour, minutes, secondsmilitary leazison office uh in Abu Dhabi Boeing in Dubai uh uh Microsoft again in
hour, minutes, secondsDubai Dubai is going to be getting hit here in Aman in Aman Oracle uh Aman again Exxon Mobile City Group in Aman so
hour, minutesAbu Dhabi you know Dubai these companies Dubai I mean the UAE is going to get hit a lot in the coming days and weeks
hour, minutes, secondsbecause of all the economic infrastructure that makes the military infrastructure possible there and to continue to exact economic pain and to
hour, minutes, secondsaccelerate this process of uh really boomeranging back the way that these sanctions have worked essentially
hour, minutes, secondsleveling a kind of massive economic sanction on the United States itself through military means but also the
hour, minutes, secondsclosure of the straight of hormuz now again uh Trump has begged China to come
hour, minutes, secondsto the rescue for uh this uh reopening of the straight of Hermuz. And what makes this very just absolutely
hour, minutes, secondsridiculous is not that just the fact that the United States and uh that Iran
hour, minutes, secondsand China are very good friends. They have a massive strategic partnership.
hour, minutes, secondsThey have a -year agreement as part of it. massive economic development and other kinds of cooperation involved. But
hour, minutes, secondsit's already been checkmate. Like while China is negotiating to be able to to move with Iran, they're negotiating with
hour, minutes, secondsIran to be able to move tankers that are trying to transport energy stuck at the straight of her moves from let's say Qatar um to China between China and
hour, minutes, secondsIran. the energy trade it's absolutely already happening that China has been given the uh solidarity pass the they
hour, minutes, secondshave been trading throughout this war um with Iran buying its energy and sailing it through the straight of Hormuz in a
hour, minutes, secondshumiliation for the US Iran has been sending oil oil to China through the straight of Hormuz according to taker tracking data Iran shipped million
hour, minutes, secondsto million barrels of crude from the th of March to March th equal to roughly million to million
hour, minutes, secondsbarrels per day. Uh while that's below Iran's pre-war February surge, it's still close to last year's average. And
hour, minutes, secondsmost, if not all of these are going to China, the biggest customer for Iran's
hour, minutes, secondsoil by far. Um while China gets % of its oil through the strait, being able to trade with Iran in this way just
hour, minutes, secondsdemonstrates that uh this partnership uh is not included in the closure of the
hour, minutes, secondsstraight of Hormuz and that China is more than willing to provide that lifeline economically to purchase Iranian oil and that uh we're going to
hour, minutes, secondssee that not only will China not help reopen the straight of Hormuz, but that it will continue to conduct activity uh through it and and it will get uh the
hour, minutes, secondscapacity. It won't have to suffer um from from this in the same way. So Donald
hour, minutes, secondsTrump, you can beg China, but China is not going to be affected by this and and really has not been affected by this since the very beginning. This is the
hour, minutes, secondscritical mistake, the miscalculation that's always made to believe to try to lecture the world that uh the United States doesn't need
hour, minutes, secondsit. It pumps its own oil. It only gets a little small percentage of its oil from there. That's not even the point. The point is that the US is the epicenter of
hour, minutes, secondsthe global financial system, the petro dollar system. Uh once the oil prices reach $a barrel, it's affecting
hour, minutes, secondseverything. Goldman Sachs, all the banks, everyone has said, all the monopolies, the corporations, they're saying this is going to astronomically
hour, minutes, secondsdramatically raise costs and and and prices and that is going to lead to an economic recession. That's just how it
hour, minutes, secondsworks. That's how things are going to go. And so Donald Trump will have both a losing war and economic recession happening simultaneously if that if that
hour, minutes, secondsis allowed to stand. If Donald Trump doesn't come to the negotiating table seriously looking to meet Iran's
hour, minutes, secondsobjectives uh to meet Iran where it's at, which is you're not going to attack us anymore, and you're going to put in real tangible changes to your behavior,
hour, minutes, secondsyour presence in the region uh to make that happen. And in doing so, if Iran succeeds in this, which that is an open
hour, minutes, secondsquestion, the United States and Israel are not rational actors, they do not take defeat lightly. Uh they will
hour, minutes, secondscontinue to thrash and lash out and do whatever they can to keep this thing going. No matter how much damage is done without air defense interceptors and all
hour, minutes, secondsof this, they're going to keep going in the economic situation. They will continue to keep going anyway. So the point here is that
hour, minutes, secondsum Iran staying firm in its demands uh will continue to wage and fight this
hour, minutes, secondslong war and perhaps uh we will see uh something we haven't seen in quot in
hour, minutes, secondsquite a long time which is a uh massive defeat for the empire. not a long-term
hour, minutes, secondone like what Afghanistan was, not um you know a a simple retreat in some
hour, minutes, secondsareas when a social movement happens in a particular country for example. None of that should be unders under underestimated or or underappreciated.
hour, minutes, secondsBut we will we are looking at possibly if Iran stands firm and fights this long war and and does so and says it can't and is able to maintain territorial
hour, minutes, secondsintegrity the unity of the population the uh ability of the armed forces to continue to do what it's doing. If it could if if
hour, minutes, secondsall things remain as they are and perhaps even become more favorable for Iran, then we could see an overall uh
hour, minutes, secondsmassive defeat for the US in such a rapid fashion that it will probably be it'll be historic in nature in terms of
hour, minutes, secondsmodern US imperial uh warfare and what it means for the world. And uh the
hour, minutes, secondsneocons are sounding the alarm about this. Okay. And I'll just close here.
hour, minutes, secondsThe Iran war reveals the limits of US military power. Many weaknesses can be fixed by smarter acquisition decisions,
hour, minutes, secondsnot so for better leadership. And this is actually wrong because what Max Boot,
hour, minutes, secondswho was a champion of the Iraq war during that period of the Bush Jr. era,
hour, minutes, secondshe's someone he's a little snake. So Max Boot used to be a uh Bushloving Republican
hour, minutes, secondsindependent Democrat. I don't I don't really know what his partisansship was,
hour, minutes, secondsbut he was very much on the pro- Iran war syndicate. Uh, and then, you know,
hour, minutes, secondsas a think tanker and all of this, and now he's a part of the Washington Post,
hour, minutes, secondsthe CIA, Washington Post. Um and he is uh now a champion for the democrat kind of way of war which is full
hour, minutes, secondsneoonservatism kind of professionalization of the war machine um reliance on intel reliance on
hour, minutes, secondscold war politics and focusing everything on Russia and China and moving away from the Middle East in that way. So the Republicans were supposed to
hour, minutes, secondunder Donald Trump move away from the Middle East and be more what do you call isolationist and brand things in this way. But as you can see, they all
hour, minutes, secondsdeviate back to the mean because the overall objective of empire is the same.
hour, minutes, secondsWe've been saying it here on this channel for so long that you just don't um you just there there is no chess board for the US empire. It's not about
hour, minutes, secondsshifting chess pieces. It's about destroying every piece on the other side. And it doesn't really matter the order as long as it happens. And we've
hour, minutes, secondsbeen saying for a long time on this channel that Iran was always going to be the stand between Russia and China in a US uh confrontation and and that this war is proving this completely right.
hour, minutes, secondsBut here we have uh you know he goes over how successful the US has been. But of course um he talks about how oh well we need to produce more weapons because
hour, minutes, secondslook we don't have enough bad uh air defense missiles. We don't have enough precision strike missiles. We don't have enough Tomahawk missiles. We only
hour, minutes, secondsproduce about of these of these and we need to do that more, right? Uh we need to invest more in this but we also need to invest in better leaders.
hour, minutes, secondsBut what he really says in that article is that the straight of Hormuz is a choke point that the US can't
hour, minutes, secondsreally defeat unless it has leadership and unless it has military means that was prepared for this from the
hour, minutes, secondsbeginning. And this is where uh there is a major difference in the US political class right now in the establishment about what has happened here. Uh they're
hour, minutes, secondsalways going to claim it's lack of preparation. It's lack of preparation.
hour, minutes, secondsBut really what they're saying is it's lack of power, capability, lack of the ability to assert dominance over a
hour, minutes, secondscountry like Iran. That's likely a problem that was never going to be planned away, but it's one that um uh
hour, minutes, secondsthe US empire is going to have to face for the rest of its days. That's the moment of history we are in. So, we are
hour, minutes, secondsprobably in many weeks of this thing still. Uh US and Israel run out of weapons. We might see them scale back
hour, minutes, secondsthe volume of their strikes. They're trying to avoid hitting oil infrastructure now of Iran. They're letting Iran, as I showed you, uh
hour, minutes, secondsthey're letting Iran ship oil out from the straight of Hormuz to China and elsewhere. And they're doing that because they're so scared that if they
hour, minutes, secondshit Iran's oil infrastructure, the oil markets are going to absolutely balloon.
hour, minutes, secondsSo, right now, they're trying to avoid that after what Israel and the United States did to southern Tran some days ago, uh which had a major impact on the
hour, minutes, secondsoil markets. Uh they're trying to avoid it from here on out.
hour, minutes, secondsum they might start running out of munitions. It's probably highly likely that they are they're going to have to scale back strikes. Their air defense systems are already running out. They
hour, minutes, secondsmight have to um you know just cope with the fact that they won't be able to stop anything that Iran is firing at them.
hour, minutes, secondsAnd so relying on censorship, relying on misdirection and mis manipulation, misinterpretation of what's going on,
hour, minutes, secondsall of this. So this is kind of what the future of the conflict is going to be as the US tries to use the remaining
hour, minutes, secondsstockpiles of its weapons to exact pain on the Iranian people in hope that that will lead to capitulation.
hour, minutes, secondsreports are that uh according to I don't know if it's Axios or another mainstream media outlet that supposedly Arachi and
hour, minutes, secondsSteve Wickoff are now talking right after the reports that Iran rejected talking now they're talking and that went right back and said we're not
hour, minutes, secondstalking so a lot of fog of war still but nonetheless uh we're in a clash of
hour, minutes, secondsabsolute historic proportions and this war is going to continue to only get uglier for the entire world. But and the
hour, minutes, secondssilver lining is that um more and more people around the world are going to learn exactly what the state of the US
hour, minutes, secondsempire really is right now and whether that is a force uh social force and economic force that
hour, minutes, secondsuh is worth is worthy of dominating the way that we live and organize ourselves.
hour, minutes, secondsMany people already would say absolutely not given their economic destitution,
hour, minutes, secondsdecline in living standards, the endless wars, the diseases, the you know everything, the privatization of
hour, minutes, secondseverything, the movement, uh the Epstein saga which shows the depravity on top of the exploitation,
hour, minutes, secondsum on and on and on. A lot of people would say no, this is not the system that we want. But this is only going to further cement that and hopefully move
hour, minutes, secondspeople toward a a direction where they want to change this and they want to change it for the better and they want
hour, minutes, secondsto begin having the discussion about what that will look like. So, we're going to keep reporting on that here. I just want to thank everybody who gave a super chat and became new members. Thank you so much, Joseph. Thank you so much,
hour, minutes, secondsAngus. Thank you so much to you user big long list. Keep up with the great content. I appreciate that. Thanks so much, Snowy. Someone say he fled to
hour, minutes, secondsGermany at the beginning where I saw that. I saw that he took a plane out. It was unverified and the Israel said there was nobody on that. No one Netanyahu
hour, minutes, secondswasn't on that plane, but you know, you just don't know. Um, Andrew, thank you so much. Absolutely.
hour, minutes, secondsUm, we have here, thanks for bringing us your show. Thank you. Releasing the full baby files would end World War II plus four.
hour, minutes, secondsYeah. Yeah. Okay. The files will also expose the truth about World War One and two. Interesting. Yeah. Interesting to say that. So pray BB resign uh reign is
hour, minutes, secondsover. We don't know but likely not but soon. Um Trump's wife was introduced by
hour, minutes, secondsEpsteela. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. And then here we have what if Trump and his buddies are using this to make money?
hour, minutes, secondsSurely trading isn't out of character for Trump. All of it. No they are.
hour, minutes, secondsThey're using look everything the United States empires monopoly capitalism. That's what
hour, minutes, secondsthat's what it is right. All these finance years, they want to make money.
hour, minutes, secondsThe investors, the bankers, they want to make money. So, they're going to do they're going to insider trade and do all of that for everything, anything
hour, minutes, secondsthat happens. But I will not say that it's the primary force that is driving this, right? because um I believe that
hour, minutes, secondsshort yeah short-term investor profits are nice but um this is why you see the certain
hour, minutes, secondsmasters of war on certain you know who are opposed to what Trump is doing vocalize exactly why this may not have
hour, minutes, secondsbeen the best idea in the way that it was done and so I think that shows that there's a bigger strategic quote unquote
hour, minutes, secondspicture here which is really about the US Empire as an economic force wanting to ensure that all these adversaries
hour, minutesthat they've made for themselves um are taken out in the most effective way possible and this wasn't it. And so, um,
hour, minutes, secondsthat will get them more money when they do this. See, that's the thing. It's like, yeah, there's money for the entire train and then there's money that happens and profits that happen and
hour, minutes, secondsinvestments that happen when you can literally create entire markets for yourself. And that's imperialism in a nutshell. You know, that's what they want to do to Iran, to China, Russia.
hour, minutes, secondsThey want to, if it's chaos, fine. you know, they can somehow find a way to uh uh make sure that they have the markets
hour, minutes, secondsthey need to uh and dominance they need to ensure dollar dominance and of course the petrod dollar dominance and and
hour, minutes, secondsreally financial and economic and military dominance uh to reproduce their class that Epstein class really the ruling class right the monopolists the
hour, minutes, secondscapitalist the corporatist without further ado everybody that's it for the show today I want to thank everyone who came out today I want remind you that
hour, minutes, secondsI'm going to probably delete that Ben Swan segment and you can find that in the video description for those who might watch this later and are like,
hour, minutes, seconds"Huh, what happened?" Um, uh, it's in the video description.
hour, minutes, secondsUh, and, uh, also tomorrow I am live with Professor Muhammad Mandi at noon
hour, minutes, secondsEastern time, March th, to get a little bit more information about what's happening inside of Iran, as well as, of course, a broader take on this war,
hour, minutes, secondswhere it's at right now. noon Eastern time, March th, Pro Mahab Morandi. Then the th, a.m.
hour, minutes, secondsEastern time with Alistister Crook, and then I'll keep announcing when shows are happening. Uh, I want you all to hit the like button to ensure that this video continues to reach more people. Um,
hour, minutes, secondsthank you so much for the new super chats here. The like button will keep this video pushing after we are done. Thank you so much for these kind words.
hour, minutes, secondsUh uh moserin mosin moserin I probably said that wrong but
hour, minutes, secondsthank you so much. Um and here is another one question of the century they said. Uh what will happen now to that
hour, minutes, secondsarms budget that the United States forced NATO countries to pay? Don't ask me. Look, a lot of the arms budget is
hour, minutes, secondsjust literal um you know it's just literal theft. I mean, the audits show that trillions of dollars have gone unaccounted for.
hour, minutes, secondsThey're just cooking the books. They're just hoarding cash. They're just printing money. And uh I think that for all of these countries, right, that are
hour, minutes, secondsbeing forced to pay, I think that the US will continue to try to exact tribute on them. And maybe even, you know, because
hour, minutes, secondsI think that's that's how this military-industrial complex continues to get what it wants, which is massive
hour, minutes, secondsamounts of government payouts to themselves uh for doing what they're doing now, which is not producing enough, producing too little, producing ineffective, outdated, all of this.
hour, minutes, secondsThey just want the profits, right? So, though I think it'll continue to happen,
hour, minutes, secondbut how they're going to do it in an environment where it's just becoming more difficult uh given that these wars are more catastrophic as we continue,
hour, minutes, secondsthat's that's a whole another question.
hour, minutes, secondsBut thank you so much everybody. Hit the like button before you go. I am out of here. Um in the video description, you can find Patreon subsec
hour, minutes, secondsnoon Eastern time, March th with Professor Morah Randi. Bye-bye.

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Mar 15, 2026 #E6BMercury #NuclearCommandAircraft #AmericaBigMove

The E-6B Mercury just went airborne — and when America puts its nuclear command and control aircraft in the sky during an active conflict, the message delivered to every military, every intelligence service, and every adversary tracking American force posture is not subtle. The E-6B does not fly for exercises during a shooting war. It flies when someone in Washington has decided the nuclear command chain needs to be airborne, survivable, and continuously connected to the submarine fleet carrying America's most consequential weapons.

The E-6B is the physical link between the National Command Authority and the Ohio-class submarines — the airborne bridge that ensures second-strike capability survives whatever happens on the ground. Getting it airborne does not mean nuclear weapons are about to be used. It means America is positioning to ensure they could be — and that positioning is the message, delivered on a frequency every nuclear-armed state monitors continuously.

Something big is coming — because the operational logic of launching the E-6B with Chinese warships in the Gulf, Russian forces on NATO's border, and Iran conducting the most sustained assault on American military infrastructure in history is not complicated. Washington's strategic calculus has moved from managing a regional war to preparing for the possibility it becomes something else.

The E-6B in the air is America saying — without saying — that the next escalation will be met at a level requiring the nuclear command chain to be airborne before it happens.



Transcript

Somewhere over the Atlantic Ocean at an
altitude of 40,000 ft. A plane just took
off that most people have never heard
of. It does not appear on commercial
flight tracking websites. It does not
file a standard flight plan. Its tail
number is classified. Its crew does not
talk about their missions. Its
communications are encrypted at levels
that do not exist in the civilian world.
And yet, in the last several hours,
military aviation analysts, open source
intelligence trackers, and defense
journalists on three continents have
independently confirmed the same thing.
The United States Air Force has launched
the E6B Mercury. Not one, not two,
multiple aircraft simultaneously in
different parts of the world. When that
happens, there's only one explanation.
The United States military is not
reacting to something. It is preparing
for something. And whatever that
something is, the people at the highest
levels of American military and
political power believe it is serious
enough to activate the most
consequential command and control system
ever built by human beings. A system
designed for one purpose and one purpose
only, to ensure that the United States
can fight and win a nuclear war even
after absorbing a first strike that
destroys everything else. Let that
sentence sit with you for a moment.
Because understanding what the E6B
Mercury actually is, what it actually
does, and why its deployment is the
single most significant military signal
the United States can send short of
actually launching weapons is the only
way to understand what is happening
right now and why the next several days
may determine the trajectory of the
entire world for the next several
decades. Most people when they think
about nuclear deterrence think about
missiles. They think about submarines
lurking in the deep ocean. They think
about hardened silos buried under the
American planes. Those things are real
and they are important. But here is what
almost nobody outside of classified
briefing rooms understands. A nuclear
weapon sitting in a silo or loaded onto
a submarine is not dangerous by itself.
It is dangerous only if someone can
communicate with it. Only if the order
to launch can travel from the president
of the United States through the chain
of command to the operator of that
weapon in real time, even in the middle
of a nuclear exchange, even after cities
have been destroyed, even after
satellites have been blinded, even after
every conventional communication system
on the planet has been reduced to
radioactive ash. That communication
link, that fragile, irreplaceable,
impossibly critical connection between
presidential authority and nuclear
capability, that is what the E6B Mercury
exists to protect. It is not a bomber.
It is not a fighter. It carries no
weapons of its own. What it carries is
something more powerful than any weapon.
It carries the ability to talk to Ohio
class ballistic missile submarines at
depth anywhere in the world's oceans
using extremely lowfrequency radio
communications that can penetrate
hundreds of feet of seawater. It carries
the ability to relay emergency action
messages. the specific codec coded
instructions that authorize a nuclear
launch to submarine crews who may have
been underwater for months with no
contact with the surface world and who
need to know with absolute certainty
that the order they are receiving is
real, authenticated, and came from
legitimate presidential authority. This
is why the aircraft is called the
doomsday plane, not because it causes
doomsday, because it is the last
safeguard against doomsday being
unleashed in a disorganized,
unauthorized, or accidental way. It is
the spine of the American nuclear
command system. And when it goes up in
numbers in multiPL locations
simultaneously, every military
intelligence service on the planet takes
notice immediately because that is not a
training exercise. Training exercises do
not look like this. Training exercises
are scheduled, announced through proper
military channels, coordinated with
allies. What happened in the last
several hours was none of those things.
What happened in the last several hours
was a rapid unscheduled operationally
significant deployment. And the question
that every defense analyst, every
intelligence service, every foreign
ministry in the world is asking right
now is the same question. What does
Washington know that the rest of us do
not? To answer that question, you have
to look at everything that has been
happening in the weeks and months
leading up to this moment. Because the
E6B deployment does not exist in
isolation. It is the final piece of a
puzzle that has been assembling itself
in plain sight for anyone paying close
enough attention. And when you see all
the pieces together, the picture they
form is one that should command the
attention of every person on this
planet, regardless of where they live,
regardless of what language they speak,
regardless of whether they have ever
given a single thought to military
affairs in their entire lives. Start
with Russia, because Russia is where
this story actually begins. Even though
most of the current news coverage is
focused elsewhere, for the past several
months, Russian strategic bomber flights
have been increasing in frequency and in
geographic reach in ways that go well
beyond anything seen in recent years.
Two 160 Blackjack bombers, Russia's most
capable nuclear capable strategic
aircraft, have been conducting flights
over the Arctic that bring them closer
to North American airspace than at any
point since the Cold War. Russian
submarines, specifically the Boret
class, submarines that carry the Bulava
intercontinental ballistic missile, have
been increasing their patrol tempo.
Multiple boats that were previously in
port have gone to sea in a pattern that
US Navy surveillance assets have been
tracking with increasing concern. Now,
here is what you need to understand
about submarine patrol tempo. When a
country wants its nuclear deterrent to
be visible, to be a political signal to
say we are watching and we are ready, it
keeps its submarines in port where
satellites can count them. When a
country is genuinely preparing for the
possibility of conflict, it sends those
submarines to sea where they cannot be
located, cannot be targeted, and cannot
be destroyed in a preemptive strike. The
shift from the first posture to the
second is one of the most serious
signals in the entire vocabulary of
nuclear strategy. And Russia has made
that shift, not partially,
comprehensively. Add to that the changes
in Russian nuclear doctrine that were
announced with almost no fanfare in the
Western press, but that sent shock waves
through every serious defense
establishment in the world. Russia
quietly lowered the threshold at which
it would consider using nuclear weapons.
The previous doctrine, which had been in
place for years, specified that Russia
would use nuclear weapons only in
response to a nuclear attack or in
response to a conventional attack that
threatened the existence of the Russian
state. The new doctrine broadens that
language in ways that are deliberate and
significant. It introduces language
about responding to conventional attacks
with nuclear weapons, even in scenarios
where the Russian state is not
existentially threatened. It introduces
language about responding to attacks by
non-uclear states if those states are
supported by nuclear powers. This is not
a technical adjustment to an obscure
legal document. This is Russia telling
the world that the circumstances under
which it might use nuclear weapons have
expanded. And it made that announcement
at precisely the moment when its
military was most deeply engaged in
Ukraine, when its conventional forces
had suffered enormous losses and when
Western military support for Ukraine was
at its highest level. That combination,
an expanded nuclear doctrine, increased
submarine patrols, accelerated strategic
bomber flights, and a conventional
military under strain is a profile that
American intelligence agencies have been
analyzing with extreme seriousness. It
is a profile that in previous eras of
cold war tension would have triggered
exactly the kind of response that we are
now seeing. The activation of the E6B
Mercury fleet. The visible demonstration
that American nuclear command and
control is active, connected, and
uninterruptible. But Russia is only one
part of what is driving this moment.
Because the world has changed in ways
that make the simple two-player
deterrence game of the Cold War obsolete
and infinitely more dangerous. During
the Cold War, the United States and the
Soviet Union were the only two players
who mattered in nuclear terms. They had
thousands of weapons. Everyone else had
dozens or hundreds. The strategic logic
was brutal but clear. Neither side could
destroy the other's second strike
capability. Therefore, neither side
would start a nuclear exchange because
the result would be mutual annihilation.
The doctrine was called mutually assured
destruction and its acronym, MAD, was
not accidental. That world no longer
exists. Today, there are nine nuclear
armed states. Several of them are in
active conflict or serious tension with
each other. And several of them are
operating with nuclear doctrines and
command structures that are far less
transparent, far less tested, and far
less subject to the confidence building
measures and communication protocols
that the United States and Soviet Union
developed over decades of terrifying
near misses. China has been expanding
its nuclear arsenal at a pace that has
alarmed American defense planners and
that the Pentagon has described in its
annual China military power reports in
language that becomes more urgent with
each passing year. The most recent
assessment concluded that China could
have as many operational nuclear
warheads as the United States within the
next decade. A decade ago, that
assessment would have seemed
fantastical. Today, based on satellite
imagery of new missile silo fields in
the Chinese interior, based on
assessments of Chinese nuclear submarine
construction, based on the expansion of
Chinese nuclear capable bomber programs,
it is the consensus view of the American
intelligence community. A China with
near parody nuclear capability changes
the deterrence equation fundamentally.
The United States has for decades
operated under a nuclear posture
designed around a single primary
adversary Russia with secondary
consideration for smaller nuclear
states. A world in which China has
achieved something approaching nuclear
parody with the United States is a world
in which American planners must
simultaneously manage deterrence
relationships with two nearpeer nuclear
powers each of which has different
doctrine different communication
channels different red lines and
different decision-making processes. The
complexity of that problem is not just
twice as hard as the Cold War problem.
It is exponentially harder because in a
three-player nuclear game, each player's
decisions affect not just the other
player they are most concerned about,
but the third player as well, creating
feedback loops and escalation dynamics
that have never been war game to stable
conclusions.

North Korea sits at the edge of this picture, and demands its own
moment of attention. Because North Korea
has now crossed a threshold that was
once considered impossible. It has
developed and deployed miniaturized
nuclear warheads that can be fitted to
intercontinental ballistic missiles
capable of reaching the Continental
United States. The US intelligence
community has confirmed this. It is no
longer a theoretical future capability.
It is a present operational reality.
North Korea has demonstrated in multiple
tests that its ICBMs can achieve the
range, the re-entry vehicle technology,
and the terminal guidance precision
necessary to deliver a nuclear warhead
to an American city. And its leader, Kim
Jong-un, has spent the last several
years not moving toward negotiation and
denuclearization, but moving away from
it, enshrining nuclear status in North
Korea's Constitution, declaring publicly
that denuclearization will never happen
under any circumstances, conducting
provocative missile tests at a pace and
with a diversity of delivery systems
that suggests an accelerating rather
than a stabilizing program.

Iran does not yet have a nuclear weapon, but Iran
may be closer to having one than any
public statement from any Western
government has admitted. The
intelligence assessments that have
leaked from multiple allied governments
over the past 12 months, tell a
consistent story. Iran's nuclear
program, which was set back
significantly by sabotage operations and
sanctions pressure, has been rebuilt and
advanced to a point where the time
between the current state and a
deployable weapon is measured not in
years, but in months, possibly in weeks.
The International Atomic Energy Agency
inspectors, who are supposed to provide
the world with confidence that Iran's
nuclear activities are peaceful, have
been denied access to key facilities.
The cameras that were supposed to
provide continuous monitoring have been
turned off. The explanations provided by
Iranian officials have not satisfied the
IAEA's own assessors. And in the
background, Iran has been enriching
uranium to 90% purity, which has no
civilian application. 90% enrichment is
weapons grade material. There is no
peaceful nuclear program in the world
that requires 90% enriched uranium.

All of this, Russia's expanded doctrine and
accelerated strategic posture, China's
nuclear buildup, North Korea's
operational ICBM capability, Iran's
sprint toward the nuclear threshold. is
happening simultaneously, not
sequentially, not in a manageable, one
crisis at a time way, but all at once in the
same compressed time frame. In an
international environment where the
communication channels, the diplomatic
back channels, the crisis hotlines, the
strategic stability dialogues that
previous generations built to manage
these exact risks have been degraded,
suspended, or politicized to the point of
uselessness. The US-Russia strategic
stability dialogue was suspended
following the invasion of Ukraine. The
US-China military communication
channels were cut off for extended
periods following tensions over Taiwan,
and have only partially been restored.
Communication with North Korea is
essentially non-existent at the senior
military level. And with Iran, the
United States communicates primarily
through intermediaries, through Omani
diplomats and European foreign ministers,
and carefully worded statements to news
organizations. That is not a crisis
management system. That is an absence of
a crisis management system dressed up in
the language of diplomacy. This is the
environment into which the E6B Mercury
has been deployed. Not a clean bilateral
well understood confrontation like the
Cuban missile crisis where Kennedy and
Krushchev at least had a direct
communication channel, and a reasonably
accurate understanding of each other's
red lines, but a multi-polar, multi-vector,
communication-degraded environment where
multiple nuclear armed actors are
simultaneously under pressure,
simultaneously recalculating their
options, and simultaneously watching
what the United States does or does not
do in response to each of them as a
signal about what they can get away with
in their own calculations.

The deployment of the E6B is not just a
signal to one adversary. It is a signal
to all of them simultaneously. It is
Washington saying with the unmistakable
language of military action, rather than
the easily dismissed language of
diplomatic statements, that the United
States' nuclear command and control
system is fully activated, fully
connected, and fully capable. That there
is no window of opportunity created by
any assumption of American inattention
or unpreparedness. That the submarines
are in communication. That the launch
authority chain is intact. That the
system works, and is working right now in
real time as you make whatever
calculations you're making in your own
capitals.

The economic dimension of this
moment deserves as much attention as the
military dimension because the two are
inseparable and because the economic
consequences of what may be coming will
reach into the lives of people who have
never thought about military strategy
and will never think about it. We are
living through a period of economic
fragility that makes the global system
unusually vulnerable to exactly the kind
of shock that a serious military
confrontation would deliver. Interest
rates in most major economies remain
elevated from the inflation of fighting
cycle that followed the pandemic.
Government debt levels in the United
States, in Europe, in Japan, in many
emerging markets are at or near historic
highs, leaving limited fiscal capacity
to respond to a new shock. The banking
systems of several major economies are
carrying unrealized losses on bond
portfolios that have not yet been fully
reckoned with. And consumer spending in
the world's largest economies is being
sustained by credit rather than income
growth, which means it is far more
fragile than headline GDP numbers
suggest. into this fragile system.
Introduce a serious military
confrontation involving any of the major
nuclear powers or any significant
disruption to global energy supply
chains. And the transmission mechanism
from geopolitical shock to economic
crisis is faster and more severe than it
would be in a more resilient
environment. The financial markets have
already begun to price an elevated risk.
Treasury yields have moved. Gold has
moved. Currency markets are showing the
patterns of riskoff behavior that
precede periods of genuine financial
stress. These are not random
fluctuations. These are market
participants with access to the best
information money can buy, making
decisions that reflect their assessment
of the probability distribution of
outcomes over the coming weeks and
months. And their assessment is not
reassuring. The energy market sits at
the intersection of the military and
economic dimensions of this crisis in a
way that makes it uniquely important.
the world's most significant oil and gas
producing regions, the Persian Gulf,
Russia's western Siberian fields, the
infrastructure networks that move that
energy to consuming nations, all of them
are now operating in an environment of
elevated military tension involving
nuclear armed states. The risk premium
that energy markets are pricing in is
not irrational. It reflects a genuine
and quantifiable increase in the
probability of supply disruption. And
supply disruption in energy markets does
not just raise gas prices. It transmits
through every sector of the global
economy because energy is not a final
product that consumers buy and use. It
is an input into every other product and
service that the global economy
produces. When energy becomes more
expensive and less reliable, everything
becomes more expensive and less
reliable. The manufacturing costs go up,
the shipping costs go up, the
agricultural costs go up because modern
agriculture is extraordinarily
energyintensive. And all of that flows
through to the cost of living for every
human being on this planet. The
countries most vulnerable to this
transmission are not the wealthy ones.
The wealthy countries have the fiscal
capacity, the institutional resilience,
and the economic buffers to absorb an
energy shock at significant cost, but
without existential crisis. The
countries that cannot absorb it, the
heavily indebted emerging market
economies that import most of their
energy and that are already managing
currency pressure and food insecurity,
those countries face a different set of
outcomes entirely. Pakistan, Sri Lanka,
Egypt, Nigeria, Argentina, a dozen
others. These are not abstract names on
a map. These are countries with hundreds
of millions of people whose political
stability and economic well-being have
already been stressed to near the
breaking point by the inflationary
shocks of the past 3 years. A new energy
shock of serious magnitude does not just
make their economic problems worse. It
can push them across thresholds of
political and social instability that
have consequences that ripple outward in
ways that are impossible to fully
predict. The technology sector, which
has come to represent an extraordinary
proportion of the equity wealth of
American and global investors, is
exposed to this moment in ways that are
not immediately obvious, but are deeply
structural. The artificial intelligence
buildout that has driven so much of the
market enthusiasm of the past two years
depends on data centers. Data centers
consume enormous amounts of electricity.
That electricity has to come from
somewhere. The supply chains that
manufacture the chips that power AI
systems run through Taiwan, through
South Korea, through a handful of highly
specialized facilities in Japan and the
Netherlands, all of those nodes of the
global technology supply chain are now
operating in an environment of elevated
geopolitical risk. The market has been
pricing technology stocks as if these
supply chains are inviable and these
facilities are perfectly secure. They
are not inviable. They are not perfectly
secure. They never were. But the
distance between theoretical
vulnerability and actual threat has
closed in ways that should alarm anyone
whose financial future is tied to the
continued smooth functioning of these
systems. And yet, here is the paradox
that sits at the heart of this entire
moment. And that makes it so much harder
to navigate than the clean
confrontations of the Cold War. The very
interconnectedness that makes the global
economy so vulnerable to a military
shock is also the most powerful force
working against escalation. China, which
holds the single most important
potential lever over any Iranian
escalation and which could, if it chose
to, exercise significant restraint over
North Korean behavior, has an economy
that is deeply integrated into the same
global trading system that a serious
military confrontation would disrupt.
China's leadership understands with a
clarity born of decades of economic
planning that the prosperity that
undergurs the Chinese Communist Party's
political legitimacy depends on access
to global markets, global supply chains,
and the stable dollar denominated
financial system that makes all of it
work. A world in which American and
Chinese military forces are in direct
confrontation is a world in which all of
that is at risk. And Chinese leaders,
whatever their political rhetoric, are
not indifferent to that risk. Russia's
calculation is more complex and more
troubling. Russia's economy is already
in a wartime posture. It has already
been subjected to the most severe
sanctions regime ever imposed on a major
economy. It has already been largely
decoupled from Western financial
systems. The economic cost of further
escalation measured in terms of lost
access to Western markets and capital. I
mean, is smaller for Russia than it
would be for any other major power
because Russia has already paid most of
that cost. This is the terrifying logic
of an actor that has already crossed
lines it cannot uncross, already paid
prices it cannot unpay. When you have
already lost most of what you had to
lose in economic terms, the deterrent
power of economic consequences is
diminished. And when the deterrent power
of economic consequences is diminished,
the weight of the deterrence calculation
falls more heavily on the military
dimension, which means it falls more
heavily on nuclear weapons, which is
precisely why the E6B Mercury is in the
air. There is a human dimension to this
story that gets lost in the strategic
analysis and the economic modeling and
deserves to be named directly. The
people making the decisions that will
determine whether this moment passes or
escalates are not abstractions. They are
human beings with histories, with fears,
with advisers who tell them what they
want to hear, with domestic political
pressures that distort rational
calculation, and with the same cognitive
limitations under extreme stress that
affect every human being who has ever
had to make a consequential decision
without complete information in a
compressed time frame. The record of
human decision-making in moments of
military crisis is not uniformly
reassuring. There have been moments of
extraordinary wisdom and restraint.
Krushchev's decision to turn the Soviet
ships around during the Cuban missile
crisis, the decision not to retaliate
during the 1983 AEL archer exercise when
Soviet early warning systems falsely
indicated an American nuclear launch was
in progress. And there have been moments
of catastrophic miscalculation,
decisions made on the basis of
incomplete intelligence, misread
signals, advisers too frightened to tell
leaders what they did not want to hear.
The outcome in any given crisis depends
not on doctrine, not on strategy, not on
the sophistication of the weapon systems
involved. It depends on the quality of
judgment of specific individuals in
specific rooms making specific decisions
under conditions of enormous pressure
and incomplete information. This is the
uncomfortable truth that strategic
analysis tends to paper over with the
language of deterrence and rational
actor models. Deterrence assumes
rationality. It assumes that
decision-makers correctly calculate
costs and benefits, correctly assess
probabilities, and correctly communicate
their intentions to adversaries.
Sometimes they do, sometimes they do
not. And the gap between those two
outcomes is the gap between a world that
navigates this moment successfully and a
world that does not. The E6B Mercury
circling at 40,000 ft is doing
everything it was designed to do. It is
communicating. It is connecting. It is
maintaining the continuity of command
that the entire edifice of nuclear
deterrence depends upon. It is doing
this visibly, deliberately, in a way
that every intelligence service and
every military command on the planet can
see and interpret correctly. It is the
most expensive and most serious telegram
in the history of human communication.
And its message is not complicated. Its
message is that the United States is
ready, that its systems work, that its
submarines are reachable and responsive,
that the chain of command is intact from
the president to the weapons, that any
calculation premised on American
unpreparedness or on the possibility of
disrupting American nuclear command and
control is a calculation built on a
false foundation. Whether that message
is received and correctly interpreted by
the people it is intended for, whether
it produces the deterrent effect it is
designed to produce, whether the
rational logic of mutual assured
destruction reasserts itself over
whatever pressures and calculations are
currently driving behavior in Moscow and
Beijing and Pyongyang and Thran. That is
the question on which everything else
depends. That is the question that
cannot be answered from open sources,
from satellite imagery, from intercepted
communications, from any of the tools
that analysts and journalists use to
understand the world. It can only be
answered by the passage of time and by
the decisions made in the coming hours
and days by human beings whose names
most of the people watching this will
never know. In rooms most of the people
watching this will never see. Under
pressures most of the people watching
this will never experience. The plane is
in the air. The world is watching. The
story is not over. It has barely begun.
And what happens next will be determined
by the same thing that has always
determined the most consequential
moments in human history. Not weapons,
not strategies, not doctrines or
deterrence models or economic
calculations, human judgment, human
restraint. The capacity of leaders who
hold the fate of millions of people in
their decisions to look at the edge they
are standing on and choose deliberately
and clearly not to step off it.
Sometimes they make that choice.
Sometimes they do not. Right now,
somewhere over the Atlantic, a plane is
circling, and the world is waiting to
find out which kind of moment this

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Iran Destroyed Israel's Entire Air Defense — 9 Million People Are Now Exposed
Blackbox Money
Mar 17, 2026

Five Patriot batteries destroyed in one night. Three Arrow systems gone. Two David's Sling batteries burning. Four additional Iron Dome batteries lost. Fourteen air defense systems across Israel destroyed in a single night in a sequenced operation that used each system's own detection gap against it. And the deeper story is not just that the systems are gone — it is that Iran designed the attack to arrive four seconds before each system could respond. The Patriot engagement timeline from detection to interceptor launch is six to eight seconds. Iran's missiles arrived inside each radar's blind spot and reached their targets in four. Four seconds. The math of that gap is 9 million Israeli civilians waking up this morning with no meaningful air defense between them and the missiles that are still being fired.

In this video, we break down:
How Iran destroyed 14 air defense systems in one night using each system's detection gap — the physical blind spot that no software upgrade or operational adjustment can eliminate
Why the civil protection model that has kept Israeli casualties at current levels for 19 days — detection, warning, interception — has lost all three components simultaneously
What the Dimona nuclear facility's air defense situation is this morning and why that sentence belongs in every briefing about this conflict but appears in none of them
Why the destruction of Israeli air defense created a 48 to 72 hour negotiating window — and what closes it permanently if that window is not used
What China's five-point ceasefire proposal, Russia's sudden call for talks, and the joint Arab statement reveal about how every major actor is reading the next 48 hours
Why the IRGC's confirmation that new missiles have not yet been fired means the 19 days were the preparation — and the path they were clearing is now clear



Transcript

0:00Israel is naked. Not vulnerable, not exposed, not operating at reduced defensive capacity with workarounds in place and backup systems covering the
0:077 secondsgaps. Naked. The way a country is naked when the last layer of protection between its cities and ballistic missiles traveling at Mach 7 is gone.
0:1515 secondsWhen the sirens that used to give civilians 90 seconds to reach shelter now give them nothing because the system that detected the incoming threat no
0:2323 secondslonger exists in sufficient numbers to detect it. when the mathematical architecture of survival that Israel has spent 40 years and hundreds of billions of dollars building the layered missile
0:3232 secondsdefense network that has been the foundational premise of Israeli civilian protection since the first Scud fell on Tel Aviv in 1991 has been reduced in a
0:3939 secondssingle night to a collection of empty launchers and burning radar systems on hillsides across the country. Five Patriot batteries destroyed last night,
0:4646 secondsnot damaged, not degraded, not struck with damage that maintenance crews can assess and repair within a reasonable operational timeline. destroyed. The way
0:5555 secondsthings are destroyed when precision strikes hit the radar systems that are the brain of each battery, the launcher vehicles that are the fists, and the command posts that connect brain to fist
1:031 minute, 3 secondssimultaneously, and a sequence time to defeat each battery's individual defensive response before it can protect itself or its neighbors. Five batteries,
1:121 minute, 12 secondsone night. In Israel, the country that built the most sophisticated layered missile defense architecture in the history of warfare, woke up this morning
1:191 minute, 19 secondswith no meaningful air defense left. Let that sentence exist for a moment. No meaningful air defense left. Not reduced, not degraded, gone. The Arrow
1:291 minute, 29 secondsbatteries that were already critically low on interceptors after 17 days of sustained Iranian ballistic missile fire lost three of their remaining operational systems in the opening wave.
1:381 minute, 38 secondsThe David Sling batteries that handle medium-range threats lost two systems in the second wave. The Iron Dome batteries protecting population centers, already
1:461 minute, 46 secondsrunning at reduced effectiveness from sustained operational tempo, lost four additional systems in the third wave.
1:521 minute, 52 secondsAnd the Patriot batteries that were serving as the backs stop for everything else, lost five systems in a fourth wave that arrived while Israeli air defense crews were still processing the first
2:002 minutesthree. Five Patriot batteries, three arrow systems, two David's Sling batteries, four Iron Dome batteries. one
2:072 minutes, 7 secondsnight. Stay with me for the next 25 minutes because what Israel woke up to this morning, what 9 million civilians living in a country whose entire
2:152 minutes, 15 secondssurvival doctrine was premised on the assumption that the missiles fired at their cities would be stopped before they arrived are now facing um is the
2:232 minutes, 23 secondsstory that changes everything about this conflict's endgame. and the decisions that have to be made in the next 24 hours by the people responsible for 9
2:312 minutes, 31 secondsmillion lives in a country with no meaningful air defense facing an adversary that has not stopped firing and has just demonstrated it can remove
2:392 minutes, 39 secondsthe last protection those lives had in a single night. Those decisions are being made right now with no good options on the table. Let's start with what
2:462 minutes, 46 secondsIsrael's air defense architecture actually was before last night. Because the scale of what was lost requires understanding the scale of what existed.
2:552 minutes, 55 secondsIsrael's missile defense system is not a single system. It is an integrated layered architecture designed to ensure that any ballistic or cruise missile
3:023 minutes, 2 secondsfired at Israel from any range faces at least one and ideally multiple defensive systems capable of intercepting it before it reaches the ground. The bottom
3:103 minutes, 10 secondslayer is Iron Dome short range designed for rockets and artillery shells fired from Gaza or Lebanon. Range up to 70 km.
3:183 minutes, 18 secondsIntercept altitude between 100 meters and 10 km. the system that produces the streaks of light in the night sky over Israeli cities that have become the
3:253 minutes, 25 secondsvisual symbol of this conflict. Iron Dome has intercepted thousands of threats since it was deployed in 2011.
3:313 minutes, 31 secondsIt is the most combat tested missile defense system in human history. And as of this morning, four additional batteries are burning. The middle layer
3:393 minutes, 39 secondsis David Sling medium range designed for ballistic missiles and large rockets in the 40 to 300 km range category. the
3:463 minutes, 46 secondsthreats that fly too far and too fast for Iron Dome, but not far enough or fast enough to require Arrow's upper tier intercept capability. David Sling
3:553 minutes, 55 secondswas specifically designed for the medium-range Iranian missiles that Hezbollah and other Iranian proxies have been deploying against Israel. Two batteries destroyed last night. The
4:034 minutes, 3 secondsupper layer is Arrow, the system that handles longrange ballistic missiles from Iran itself. Arrow 2 handles missiles in the atmosphere. A3 handles
4:114 minutes, 11 secondsmissiles in the exo atmosphere in space before they re-enter and begin their terminal descent. The system whose interceptor stockpile was already
4:184 minutes, 18 secondscritically low after 17 days of sustained Iranian ballistic missile fire. Three systems destroyed last night. And the back stop for all of it
4:254 minutes, 25 secondswas Patriot. The American supplied system whose batteries have been positioned at critical nodes in the defensive network around Tel Aviv around
4:324 minutes, 32 secondsHifa around the Deona nuclear facility around the Bengorian airport approaches to provide coverage where Israeli manufactured systems have gaps. Five
4:404 minutes, 40 secondsbatteries destroyed last night, four layers, 14 systems destroyed in a single night. The integrated architecture that made each layer dependent on the others
4:484 minutes, 48 secondsfor coverage of the gaps that no single system can handle alone. That architecture does not have 14 holes in it this morning. It has collapsed
4:564 minutes, 56 secondsbecause the integration that made it function as a system rather than as a collection of individual systems depended on each layer's ability to hand
5:045 minutes, 4 secondsoff threats that exceeded its engagement envelope to the next layer. Remove enough nodes and the handoffs fail. The handoffs have failed. Let's talk about
5:125 minutes, 12 secondshow Iran destroyed 14 air defense systems across a country the size of New Jersey in a single night without any of them successfully defending themselves
5:205 minutes, 20 secondsor each other. The specific vulnerability that Iran exploited has been documented in classified assessments and cautiously hinted at in public military literature for years.
5:295 minutes, 29 secondsAir defense systems defend against threats. They are not optimized to defend against attacks on themselves. A Patriot battery can track and intercept
5:375 minutes, 37 secondsa ballistic missile approaching from any direction within its coverage arc. It cannot track and intercept a ballistic missile fired specifically at its own
5:445 minutes, 44 secondsradar from a direction and altitude profile calibrated to arrive inside the radar's own detection gap. Every radar system has a detection gap. The area
5:525 minutes, 52 secondsdirectly beneath the radar at low elevation angles where the radar's own emission pattern creates a blind spot.
5:575 minutes, 57 secondsThe area directly above the radar at extreme elevation angles where the resolution degrades below intercept quality tracking. The area behind terrain features that scatter the
6:056 minutes, 5 secondsradar's interrogation pulses before they reach incoming threats. These gaps are documented. They are physical consequences of the radar's geometry.
6:136 minutes, 13 secondsThey cannot be eliminated through software upgrades or operational adjustments. They exist as long as the radar exists. Iran's targeting solution for each of the 14 systems destroyed
6:226 minutes, 22 secondslast night was built around the specific detection gap of that specific systems radar at its specific geographic position. The missiles that destroyed each radar arrived from the direction,
6:326 minutes, 32 secondsaltitude, and angle that maximized the time they spent inside the radar's blind spot before entering the radar's detection envelope, which for a direct
6:396 minutes, 39 secondsattack on the radar itself means they were detected approximately 4 seconds before impact. 4 seconds. The Patriot systems engagement timeline from threat
6:476 minutes, 47 secondsdetection to interceptor launch is between 6 and 8 seconds under optimal conditions. Iran designed the attack to arrive 4 seconds before the system could
6:556 minutes, 55 secondsrespond. That design required knowing the exact geographic position of each radar, its exact orientation, its exact detection characteristics at that
7:037 minutes, 3 secondsposition and the terrained features surrounding it that affect its coverage pattern. That information is not derived from satellite imagery of the radar's
7:107 minutes, 10 secondsgeneral location. It is derived from detailed electromagnetic intelligence.
7:147 minutes, 14 secondsPassive collection of each radar's emission patterns over time combined with geometric modeling of the terrain combined with flight test data on the specific missile profiles that exploit
7:237 minutes, 23 secondsthe resulting detection gaps. Iran collected that intelligence over years.
7:277 minutes, 27 secondsIran built targeting solutions for 14 Israeli air defense systems using that intelligence. And Iran executed those targeting solutions last night in a
7:357 minutes, 35 secondssequence that prevented any system from warning any other system in time to change the outcome. The sequence was critical. The systems in southern Israel
7:437 minutes, 43 secondswere struck first. Their destruction prevented early warning from being passed to systems in central Israel before the second wave arrived. The systems in central Israel were struck
7:517 minutes, 51 secondssecond. Their destruction prevented the northern systems from receiving the targeting data that would have allowed them to attempt engagement of the third wave. The northern systems were struck
8:008 minutesthird. By the time the fourth wave of targeting the Patriot backs stop batteries arrived, the integrated network that might have coordinated a
8:088 minutes, 8 secondsdefense was already gone. and the individual Patriot batteries were operating as isolated sensors without the network picture that coordinates their engagement decisions. Isolation sequencing detection gap exploitation.
8:198 minutes, 19 secondsThat is how 14 air defense systems in one of the most heavily defended countries on Earth were destroyed in one night. Let's talk about what Israel without meaningful air defense means for
8:288 minutes, 28 secondsthe 9 million people who live there. The civil protection model that has governed Israeli civilian life for the entire duration of this conflict is premised on
8:368 minutes, 36 secondsone assumption above all others. Warning time. The detection systems that identify an incoming threat generate an alert. The alert activates sirens. The
8:448 minutes, 44 secondssirens give civilians between 90 seconds and four minutes. Depending on the threat's range and trajectory to reach a shelter, the shelter protects them from
8:528 minutes, 52 secondseverything except a direct hit. And uh direct hits on shelters have been rare because the interceptors that were supposed to stop the missiles before
8:598 minutes, 59 secondsthey reached populated areas were stopping most of them. That model has three components. Detection, warning,
9:069 minutes, 6 secondsinterception. Detection requires operational radar systems. The radars are burning. Warning requires the detection systems to be functioning with enough lead time to activate the alert
9:159 minutes, 15 secondsnetwork before the missile reaches its target. With no detection radars, the warning time collapses from 90 seconds to the time between a civilian hearing
9:239 minutes, 23 secondsthe incoming missile's terminal approach and the impact, which is not enough time to reach a shelter, which is not enough time to do anything except understand
9:319 minutes, 31 secondswhat is happening. Interception requires interceptors. The interceptor stockpile was already critically low before last night. The systems that would fire the
9:389 minutes, 38 secondsremaining interceptors have been destroyed. The interceptors that are still in storage cannot be fired by systems that no longer exist. Detection gone. Warning gone. Interception gone.
9:489 minutes, 48 secondsThe civil protection model that has kept Israeli casualties at the levels they have been at for 17 days of sustained missile fire is gone with them. This
9:559 minutes, 55 secondsmorning, 9 million people in Israel woke up in a country where the next Iranian ballistic missile that launches from Iranian territory will travel for
10:0310 minutes, 3 secondsapproximately 10 minutes, cross into Israeli airspace, and reach its target without detection, without a warning siren, and without an interceptor. The
10:1110 minutes, 11 secondsimpact will be the first indication that the missile was fired. That is not a hypothetical. That is the operational reality of this morning. And Iran has
10:1910 minutes, 19 secondsnot stopped firing. Now, let's talk about what Israel without air defense means militarily, because the civilian consequence is the most immediate and
10:2610 minutes, 26 secondsthe most human. But the military consequence determines whether the civilian consequence gets addressed or whether it gets dramatically worse.
10:3410 minutes, 34 secondsIsrael's offensive military operations,
10:3610 minutes, 36 secondsthe F-35 strikes on Iranian targets, the naval operations in the Red Sea, the ground operations in southern Lebanon,
10:4210 minutes, 42 secondshave all been conducted under the assumption that the home front is protected. that pilots flying missions over Iran are flying knowing that their families in Tel Aviv and Hifa and
10:5010 minutes, 50 secondsJerusalem are behind a defensive shield that is stopping most of what Iran fires at them. That assumption changes the way pilots fly. It affects mission risk
10:5910 minutes, 59 secondstolerance. It affects the duration and depth of operations. It affects the human element of combat effectiveness in ways that no operational order can fully
11:0611 minutes, 6 secondscompensate for. That assumption is gone this morning. The Israeli Air Force pilots, who are scheduled to fly strike missions over Iran today, are flying
11:1411 minutes, 14 secondsfrom bases that are no longer protected by the air defense network that was protecting them yesterday. The bases themselves, the runways, the hangers,
11:2111 minutes, 21 secondsthe fuel and munitions infrastructure are now exposed to Iranian ballistic missiles in the same way the civilian population is exposed. A base without
11:2911 minutes, 29 secondsair defense is a base Iran can strike with the same precision and at the same cost as any other target. The operational consequence is a compression
11:3711 minutes, 37 secondsof the time available for Israeli offensive operations that changes the strategic picture entirely. Israel can continue offensive operations. The
11:4511 minutes, 45 secondsaircraft still fly, the pilots are still trained, the missions are still planned,
11:4911 minutes, 49 secondsbut every sorty that launches from an Israeli base does so with the knowledge that the base it returns to has no meaningful protection against the missiles that Iran can fire at it while
11:5711 minutes, 57 secondsthe aircraft is in the air. The Deamona nuclear facility, the most heavily protected site in Israel, the site whose destruction or damage would produce
12:0412 minutes, 4 secondsconsequences that dwarf anything this conflict has produced so far. The Patriot batteries, specifically positioned to provide terminal defense
12:1112 minutes, 11 secondsfor Deona, are among the five destroyed last night. The AOS system, whose exoic intercept capability was the last line of defense against a ballistic missile
12:2012 minutes, 20 secondson a trajectory toward Deona, lost three of its operational systems. Deona is not protected this morning in the way it was protected yesterday morning. That
12:2912 minutes, 29 secondssentence belongs in every briefing about this conflict. It is in none of them.
12:3212 minutes, 32 secondsLet's talk about the political consequence of Israel having no meaningful air defense because the military situation produces an immediate
12:3912 minutes, 39 secondspolitical crisis that Israeli leadership has to manage simultaneously with managing the military situation. And the two crises pull in opposite directions.
12:4812 minutes, 48 secondsThe political pressure on Netanyahu from the destruction of Israel's air defense is the most acute domestic political pressure any Israeli prime minister has faced since the Yam Kapour war in 1973.
12:5812 minutes, 58 secondsThe Yom Kapour war produced the Agramat Commission, the resignation of the chief of staff and the head of military intelligence and ultimately the resignation of Prime Minister Gula Mir.
13:0713 minutes, 7 secondsThe political consequence of a military surprise that leaves a country exposed is historically terminal for the leadership responsible for that country's security. Netanyahu's press
13:1613 minutes, 16 secondsconference three days ago, the one where sirens went off while he was claiming Israeli strength and he could not hide from the missiles arriving during his own statement, was the visible symptom
13:2413 minutes, 24 secondsof the political pressure that last night's destruction of air defense is going to make existential. The Israeli public's tolerance for the gap between official narrative and operational
13:3313 minutes, 33 secondsreality has been strained since day one of this conflict. Netanyahu said this would be swift and decisive. It is day
13:4013 minutes, 40 seconds19. Netanyahu said Iran's capability was being degraded. Iran destroyed 14 air defense systems in one night. Netanyahu
13:4813 minutes, 48 secondssaid the home front was protected. The home front is naked this morning. The corruption trial continues. The pardon request has been rejected. Trump has
13:5513 minutes, 55 secondscalled Israel's president weak and pathetic. The polls that were already showing Netanyahu losing seats before last night's strikes are going to produce numbers in the next 48 hours
14:0414 minutes, 4 secondsthat translate the air defense destruction into electoral consequence with a precision that ballistic missiles cannot match. Netanyahu needs this war
14:1114 minutes, 11 secondsto continue for political survival. His defense establishment needs an immediate reassessment of whether continuing the war on current terms is compatible with
14:1914 minutes, 19 secondsthe physical security of the country he is supposed to be protecting. Those two needs are now pointing in opposite directions, more sharply than at any
14:2714 minutes, 27 secondsprevious point in this conflict. Here is the sequence of official Israeli and American statements about air defense capability over the past 17 days. And
14:3614 minutes, 36 secondshere is what each statement looks like this morning against the operational reality of 14 destroyed systems. Day three. Israeli Defense Ministry
14:4314 minutes, 43 secondsdescribed Iron Dome as performing at above historical intercept rates against the Iranian supplied threats being fired from Lebanon and Gaza. The statement was
14:5114 minutes, 51 secondsaccurate at the time. The five Iron Dome batteries that existed at the time of that statement now number fewer. Day seven. American officials described
14:5814 minutes, 58 secondsIsraeli air defense as robust and capable of sustaining operations indefinitely with continued American support. sustained operations at what
15:0615 minutes, 6 secondscost to interceptor inventory and system availability was not addressed. Day 10.
15:1115 minutes, 11 secondsNetanyahu told reporters that Israel's defensive systems were degrading Iran's ability to cause casualties among Israeli civilians. True in the narrow
15:1815 minutes, 18 secondssense that intercept rates were still positive, silent on the trajectory of those rates as interceptor stockpiles depleted. Day 14, Israel notified
15:2715 minutes, 27 secondsAmerica that interceptor stockpiles were critically low. That notification did not become public until after it was confirmed by independent reporting. The
15:3415 minutes, 34 secondsofficial Israeli position during the period of that notification was continued public confidence in the defensive systems integrity. Day 17,
15:4215 minutes, 42 secondsPentagon confirmed awareness of Israeli interceptor shortage and described resupply efforts as ongoing. Day 19, 14 air defense systems destroyed in one
15:5115 minutes, 51 secondsnight. The official statement from the Israeli Defense Ministry confirmed attacks on air defense infrastructure and described the IDF as responding vigorously. It did not use the words no
16:0016 minutesmeaningful air defense left. It did not use the word naked. It used the words responding vigorously. Responding vigorously is not a description of a
16:0716 minutes, 7 secondsdefensive capability. It is a description of what you say when the actual description of the defensive capability is not something that can be said publicly without producing a panic
16:1616 minutes, 16 secondsthat makes the situation worse before the situation can be addressed. The gap between responding vigorously and no meaningful air defense left is the gap
16:2516 minutes, 25 secondsthat 9 million Israeli civilians are living inside this morning. Let's talk about what America is doing in the next 24 hours in response to Israel losing
16:3216 minutes, 32 secondsits air defense because the American response to this specific event is the most consequential decision the American administration has made since this
16:4116 minutes, 41 secondsconflict began. Option one, emergency deployment of American Patriot batteries from European NATO stockpiles to Israel.
16:4816 minutes, 48 secondsThis is the option being discussed in the immediate term. American Patriot batteries are deployed in Poland,
16:5316 minutes, 53 secondsRomania, Germany, and other European locations as part of NATO's Eastern Flank defense. Physically relocating those batteries to Israel requires
17:0017 minutesdisassembly, airlift, reassembly, crew familiarization with new operational environment and integration into whatever remains of Israel's air defense
17:0917 minutes, 9 secondsnetwork. The fastest any such deployment has been achieved historically is 72 hours under peaceime conditions with full logistical support. Under current
17:1717 minutes, 17 secondsconditions, with airlift capacity already stressed and the forward ammunition supply already destroyed, the timeline is longer. Option two,
17:2317 minutes, 23 secondsrepositioning American naval assets to provide Aegis based air defense cover for Israeli cities from the Mediterranean. American destroyers and
17:3117 minutes, 31 secondscruisers equipped with the Aegis system carry SM3 and SM6 interceptors that can engage ballistic missiles in their terminal phase. Positioning those
17:3917 minutes, 39 secondsvessels in the eastern Mediterranean within coverage range of Israeli population centers provides an interim capability while groundbased systems are
17:4617 minutes, 46 secondsreplaced. The limitation is VLS cell inventory. The same inventory depletion problem the Gulf based vessels are facing now being asked to extend coverage to an additional theater.
17:5617 minutes, 56 secondsOption three, negotiation. The air defense destruction creates the most acute pressure for a negotiated exit that this conflict has produced. Israel
18:0418 minutes, 4 secondswithout air defense cannot sustain indefinite combat operations against an adversary that has demonstrated it can remove defensive systems faster than
18:1218 minutes, 12 secondsthey can be replaced. The military reality is a negotiating reality and the negotiating reality has a specific shape. Iran has publicly stated its
18:2118 minutes, 21 secondscondition. Remove American bases. Stop the strikes. The condition was issued as an ultimatum. Under the current military circumstances, it has acquired the
18:2918 minutes, 29 secondscharacter of a realistic settlement offer. None of these options are good.
18:3318 minutes, 33 secondsThe first is too slow. The second has inventory limitations. The third is politically impossible for Netanyahu,
18:4018 minutes, 40 secondswhose survival depends on not being the leader who accepted Iranian terms.
18:4418 minutes, 44 secondsAmerica is managing a situation where the ally it has committed to defend has no meaningful defense. And the options for restoring that defense operate on
18:5218 minutes, 52 secondstimelines that the current threat environment may not allow. Russia's foreign ministry issued a statement within two hours of the destruction of Israeli air defense systems. That was
19:0019 minutesthe most carefully worded Russian official communication of this entire conflict. Russia did not celebrate.
19:0619 minutes, 6 secondsRussia did not condemn. Russia issued a formal call for immediate ceasefire talks and stated clearly that the current military situation created
19:1419 minutes, 14 secondsconditions in which any further escalation risked consequences that no party to the conflict had fully calculated. That language from Russia,
19:2119 minutes, 21 secondsthe country that has been providing Iran with diplomatic cover, blocking UN resolutions, and publicly stating that America started this war, is the most
19:2919 minutes, 29 secondssignificant diplomatic signal this conflict has produced. Russia is not telling Iran to stop. Russia is telling everyone that the situation has reached
19:3719 minutes, 37 secondsa threshold that Russia's own strategic interests require to be stabilized before it passes a point of no return.
19:4319 minutes, 43 secondsRussia's interests are served by American overextension and by American Israeli military embarrassment. Russia's interests are not served by a Middle
19:5119 minutes, 51 secondsEast confilgration that produces oil disruption severe enough to damage the global economy that Russia's energy revenues depend on, refugee flows that
19:5919 minutes, 59 secondsdestabilize European politics in ways that are unpredictable, or an Israeli military situation so desperate that America is forced into a level of direct
20:0620 minutes, 6 secondsengagement that transforms the conflict's character entirely. Russia is calling for ceasefire because Russia has calculated that the current trajectory
20:1420 minutes, 14 secondsgoes beyond the level of American damage that serves Russian interests. and into territory that damages everyone,
20:2020 minutes, 20 secondsincluding Russia. China's response was the most operationally significant.
20:2420 minutes, 24 secondsBeijing issued a formal diplomatic initiative, a five-point proposal for immediate ceasefire, humanitarian corridor establishment, negotiating
20:3220 minutes, 32 secondsframework, international observer mission, and long-term security architecture discussion. China has not issued a substantive peace proposal at
20:4020 minutes, 40 secondsany point in this conflict. Five-point proposals require preparation. You do not write a five-point ceasefire proposal in 2 hours. China has been
20:4720 minutes, 47 secondspreparing this proposal for days and waiting for the moment when the military situation produced the maximum receptivity to outside mediation. The
20:5520 minutes, 55 secondsdestruction of Israeli air defense is that moment. China calculated correctly.
20:5920 minutes, 59 secondsThe Arab world's response was the most publicly visible shift in any actor's position since this conflict began.
21:0421 minutes, 4 secondsSaudi Arabia, UAE, Jordan, and Egypt issued a joint statement calling for immediate ceasefire and offering to host mediation talks. A joint statement from
21:1321 minutes, 13 secondsthose four countries, two of which are hosting American military bases that are currently under threat, represents the most significant break from the American position that any group of American
21:2221 minutes, 22 secondsregional partners has made since February 28th. The Gulf States are not breaking from America strategically.
21:2721 minutes, 27 secondsThey're telling America publicly what they have been telling it privately for 19 days. The military path has no exit that any of them can afford. The
21:3521 minutes, 35 secondsdestruction of Israeli air defense has made that private message a public one because the alternative to saying it publicly is watching the situation
21:4221 minutes, 42 secondsdevelop to a point where the option of saying anything at all has expired. NATO convened its most urgent session of this conflict. The specific agenda item that
21:5021 minutes, 50 secondshad not been on any previous NATO sessions agenda. What are alliance obligations under article 5 if Israel, a non-NATO member but an American treaty
21:5921 minutes, 59 secondspartner, faces existential military threat following the destruction of its air defense? And how do those obligations interact with European NATO
22:0622 minutes, 6 secondsmembers acute opposition to further escalation of a conflict that is already producing energy crisis conditions in Europe? That question has no clean
22:1422 minutes, 14 secondsanswer. The session produced no public statement. The private disagreements it surfaced will shape European American alliance politics for years. Let's talk
22:2222 minutes, 22 secondsabout what Iran's strategic position is this morning. Because understanding what Iran does next requires understanding what Iran has achieved and what Iran has
22:3022 minutes, 30 secondsnot yet done. Iran has spent 19 days systematically removing the components of American and Israeli military capability that protect the homeront and
22:3822 minutes, 38 secondsenable offensive operations. The E3 early warning aircraft, the forward ammunition supply, the underwater drone network, the Patriot back stop
22:4722 minutes, 47 secondsbatteries, the Israeli layered air defense architecture. Each removal was deliberate. Each was sequenced. Each was part of an operational logic that the
22:5422 minutes, 54 secondsIRGC spokesperson partially described when he confirmed that the new missiles have not yet been launched. Iran has been clearing the path. Not the path to
23:0223 minutes, 2 secondsa political settlement. The path for the weapons that have been waiting in hardened storage since the last conflict. The Fatah hypersonics. The
23:1023 minutes, 10 secondsupdated KBAR sheens. The new generation of ballistic missiles that incorporate the lessons of every engagement Iran has studied for a decade. The path is now
23:1823 minutes, 18 secondssubstantially clearer than it was 19 days ago. The E3 that would have provided early warning of hypersonic launches is gone. The Patriot batteries
23:2623 minutes, 26 secondsthat would have attempted terminal defense against ballistic missiles are gone. The aerosystems that would have engaged exone atmospheric intercepts are critically depleted. The forward
23:3523 minutes, 35 secondsammunition supply that would have sustained American counter operations is ash. The air base that was staging American strike packages is still
23:4323 minutes, 43 secondsassessing its losses from 60 destroyed aircraft. Iran has not yet fired its new missiles. Iran has been systematically removing every system that would have
23:5123 minutes, 51 secondsattempted to stop them. And now the systems are gone. The 19 days were not the war. The 19 days were the preparation for the war. Let's talk
23:5823 minutes, 58 secondsabout the human dimension that no official briefing addresses adequately because behind the system counts and the battery numbers and the interceptor inventories are 9 million people who are
24:0724 minutes, 7 secondswaking up this morning to a different reality than the one they went to sleep in. The Israeli civil defense system has been the most sophisticated civilian protection architecture in the history
24:1624 minutes, 16 secondsof warfare. Bomb shelters in every apartment building, reinforced safe rooms built into every home constructed after 1992. A national alert system that
24:2424 minutes, 24 secondshas delivered warnings to every mobile phone in the country within seconds of threat detection, school closure protocols, hospital shelter procedures,
24:3224 minutes, 32 secondstransportation network safety guidelines, everything built around the assumption that the detection and warning infrastructure would give civilians enough time to reach
24:3924 minutes, 39 secondsprotection before impact. That assumption is operationally invalid this morning. The schools that closed 19 days ago and have not reopened are closed in
24:4724 minutes, 47 secondsa different way today. They were closed because missiles were being intercepted above the cities and the disruption to normal life was the acceptable cost of
24:5424 minutes, 54 secondssafety. They are closed today because there is no interception. And the disruption to normal life is the lesser cost compared to the risk of children in
25:0225 minutes, 2 secondsopen spaces with no warning and no defense. The hospitals that have been operating in protected underground facilities for 19 days are operating in
25:1025 minutes, 10 secondsa different threat environment this morning. A hospital that was managing missile impact risk at a percentage defined by the intercept rate is now managing missile impact risk at a
25:1825 minutes, 18 secondspercentage defined by nothing except where the missile is aimed and whether it happens to miss. The population in southern Israel near the Lebanese border
25:2625 minutes, 26 secondshas been living with Hezbollah rocket fire throughout this conflict. That population was already the most exposed civilian community in this conflict before last night. This morning, their
25:3425 minutes, 34 secondsexposure has changed from a measured risk against an imperfect defensive system to an unmediated exposure against an adversary that is still firing. 9
25:4225 minutes, 42 secondsmillion people, no meaningful air defense, an adversary that has not stopped and has just announced through action that the next phase of its campaign has not yet begun. Here's the
25:5125 minutes, 51 secondsthing. Nobody in any official position is saying clearly, but that every analyst who has been following this conflict honestly is thinking. The
25:5825 minutes, 58 secondsdestruction of Israel's air defense created a negotiating window, a specific timebounded, rapidly closing window in which a ceasefire is achievable on terms
26:0626 minutes, 6 secondsthat both sides can describe as something other than a defeat. The window exists because of a specific alignment of pressures that may not last
26:1326 minutes, 13 secondsmore than 48 to 72 hours. Iran has achieved its stated military objectives for this phase. The American military presence in the Gulf is degraded. The
26:2126 minutes, 21 secondsIsraeli air defense is gone. The forward ammunition supply is destroyed. The Patriot backs stop batteries are burning. Iran has demonstrated everything it set out to demonstrate
26:3026 minutes, 30 secondsabout the vulnerability of American and Israeli military assumptions. Iran does not need to fire the new missiles to prove the point it has been making for
26:3726 minutes, 37 seconds19 days. America faces domestic opposition at 90% against a conflict that has just produced the largest single event military losses in multiple
26:4626 minutes, 46 secondscategories since World War II. The political cost of continuing is compounding daily. Israel faces the choice between continuing offensive
26:5326 minutes, 53 secondsoperations against Iran without a homeront defense, which the Israeli public and Israeli military establishment are processing in real time, and accepting a ceasefire that
27:0227 minutes, 2 secondsstops the Iranian missiles while stopping Israeli strikes. Russia and China are both publicly calling for immediate ceasefire. The Gulf States
27:1027 minutes, 10 secondsjointly published a ceasefire call. The conditions for a negotiated exit have never been more aligned than they are in the next 48 to 72 hours. The window closes when Iran fires the new missiles.
27:2027 minutes, 20 secondsBecause once the new missiles are in the air, the negotiating framework that exists right now, before the next level of destruction, before the civilian casualties that the new missiles against
27:2827 minutes, 28 secondsundefended cities will produce, no longer exists. It is replaced by a different framework defined by a different level of damage and a different set of political pressures.
27:3727 minutes, 37 secondsThe window is open. It is 48 to 72 hours wide. And every government that has the ability to push the parties toward it is pushing right now with everything they
27:4627 minutes, 46 secondshave. Whether they push fast enough is the only question that matters in the next 72 hours. More than the ammunition resupply, more than the Patriot
27:5327 minutes, 53 secondsdeployment, more than any military operation either side is planning. The window here is what Israel having no meaningful air defense means for this
28:0228 minutes, 2 secondswar from this morning forward. It means the 9 million people living in a country whose survival doctrine was built around interception are living through the
28:0928 minutes, 9 secondsmorning that doctrine's failure produces. Not abstractly actually with no warning system functioning at adequate capacity. With no interceptors
28:1728 minutes, 17 secondsmeeting the missiles that are still being fired with the physical reality of undefended cities that the sirens and shelters and civil defense procedures
28:2528 minutes, 25 secondswere always meant to be a supplement to rather than a substitute for. It means the military campaign that Israel has been conducting as the offensive
28:3228 minutes, 32 secondscomponent of this war is now being conducted without the defensive component that made it sustainable.
28:3728 minutes, 37 secondsEvery pilot who flies a mission against Iran today flies from an unprotected base in an unprotected country and returns, if they return, to the same. It
28:4728 minutes, 47 secondsmeans the negotiating window that Iran's 19-day systematic dismantlement of American and Israeli military protection has created is the most important
28:5428 minutes, 54 secondsdiplomatic development since this conflict began. more important than any military event because military events produce casualties and destruction. The
29:0229 minutes, 2 secondsnegotiating window produces the possibility of stopping them and it means that somewhere in the storage facilities that 19 days of strikes did not reach in the hardened tunnels whose
29:1129 minutes, 11 secondscoordinates were never in the targeting intelligence. In the inventory that the IRGC spokesperson confirmed has not yet been fired. The weapons that the last 19
29:2029 minutes, 20 secondsdays were clearing the path for are still waiting. The path is clear. The defense is gone. The window is open. and the people who can close it. The
29:2829 minutes, 28 secondsnegotiators, the mediators, the back channel operators, the leaders who understand that the next 48 hours are the last opportunity before this conflict enters a phase that none of the
29:3629 minutes, 36 secondswords currently being used to describe it are adequate for are racing a clock that does not know what diplomacy is and does not care. 14 systems, one night,
29:4529 minutes, 45 secondsfive Patriot batteries, one night, 19 days of preparation for a phase that has not started yet, and 9 million people waking up in a country that is for the
29:5329 minutes, 53 secondsfirst time since the modern state of Israel was founded, genuinely and operationally naked. The missiles that stopped being intercepted above Israeli cities last night are still being fired,
30:0330 minutes, 3 secondsand the new ones are still waiting. The path that was being cleared for 19 days is clear now. What comes next is the question that the next 48 hours will answer. And nobody, not in Washington,
30:1330 minutes, 13 secondsnot in Jerusalem, not in the Gulf, not in Moscow, not in Beijing, is going to like the answer if the window closes before the ceasefire opens. 19 days, 14
30:2330 minutes, 23 secondssystems, zero air defense, and a 48 hour window that is already smaller than it was when this video started.