Part 2 Anti-Anti-Nazi Barbarian Hordes are Knocking Down ...

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HORMUZ MINEFIELD: Iran’s Hidden Mines Trap 80+ Oil Tankers
Capital Breakdown
Mar 18, 2026 #hormuzcrisis #irannavy #oiltankers

Iran didn’t just threaten the Strait of Hormuz — it turned it into a weapon.

This is no ordinary disruption. Hidden naval mines have transformed the world’s most critical oil corridor into a live minefield, trapping over 80 oil tankers in a zone where movement itself has become a calculated risk.

Because in modern warfare, mines don’t chase targets — they control space.

Unlike missiles or drones, naval mines create something far more dangerous: uncertainty. One confirmed mine is enough to halt entire shipping lanes, forcing global trade into paralysis without a single shot being fired.

And that’s exactly what’s happening.

The Strait of Hormuz carries nearly 20% of the world’s oil supply. Now, with Iran deploying hidden mines, backed by naval patrols and selective passage control, this narrow waterway has become a geopolitical pressure point affecting energy markets worldwide.

Some ships are allowed through.
Others are left waiting.
And every decision is no longer commercial — it’s strategic.

Clearing these mines is slow, risky, and far from guaranteed. Every attempt to reopen the corridor exposes ships to further threats, escalating the situation beyond a simple blockade.

This isn’t just about trapped tankers.

This is about how a single choke point can reshape global power, disrupt economies, and redefine modern naval warfare.

If you want deeper military analysis that goes beyond headlines, make sure to Like, Subscribe, and stay ahead of the story.

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The Most Dangerous Phase of This War Has Begun
Daily-Reports
Mar 18, 2026 #StraitOfHormuz #OilCrisis #Iran

A narrow strip of water is now controlling the global economy.

The Strait of Hormuz — just 54 kilometers wide — carries nearly 20% of the world’s oil supply. And now, it has become the most powerful weapon in this conflict.

In this Daily Reports analysis, we break down:

• How Iran turned the Strait of Hormuz into a strategic pressure point without closing it
• Why oil prices are surging toward $150 per barrel
• The collapse of the U.S. coalition strategy in the region
• How global powers like China and Russia are shifting the balance
• The economic impact on Canada, the U.S., Europe, and global markets
• Why Gulf states are trapped between war and fear of Iran’s dominance
• The humanitarian crisis unfolding across the Middle East

This is no longer just a regional conflict.

It’s a global economic battle — and every country is now involved.

From fuel prices to food costs, the impact is already being felt worldwide.

The question is no longer if the system will feel the pressure — but how long it can survive it.

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US Air Base Under Fire — Did Iran Really Hit 60 Jets?
John AG Reports
Mar 18, 2026 #AlUdeid #IranStrike #USAirBase

The situation at Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar has raised global concerns. Iran has launched missiles targeting U.S. military infrastructure in the Gulf, but how much damage was actually done? Did 60 fighter jets really get destroyed? Watch this full breakdown to understand what really happened, confirmed reports, and what analysts are saying.



American fighter jets gone, just sitting on the ground at one of the most heavily guarded military bases on the planet. That's the claim coming out of
the Middle East right now. And whether you believe it or not, what actually happened at Aluate Air Base in Qatar is something the mainstream media is barely
secondstalking about. Welcome to John AG Reports. If you're new here, hit that subscribe button right now because we cover the stories that matter, the ones
secondsthat shape the world, and we don't sugarcoat them. Like this video if you want more coverage on the Iran war. It helps us reach more people who need to see this. Let's go back to the beginning
Chapter : Background on the U.S.-Iran conflict
secondsbecause to understand what just happened at Aluade, you need to understand how we even got here. This war didn't start with a random missile. It started on
secondsFebruary th, when the United States and Israel launched a massive coordinated surprise attack on Iran.
secondsThey hit military sites, government compounds, and command centers across the country. And in those first strikes,
secondsIran's Supreme Leader Ali Kam was killed. That changed everything because Iran didn't have a choice anymore. There was no diplomatic exit ramp, no back
minutechannel to call. The gloves came off and Iran began doing something it hadn't done in years. It started hitting back with everything it had. Within hours,
minute, secondsIran launched what it called Operation True Promise : Ballistic Missiles, cruise missiles, explosive drones,
minute, secondshundreds of them aimed at American military bases, Gulf State infrastructure, Israeli cities, and energy facilities across the region.
minute, secondsThis wasn't a warning shot. This was a full-scale military retaliation unlike anything seen in decades. And sitting right in the middle of all of this was
minute, secondsAl- Udade Air Base in Qatar. Now, if you don't know what Al- Udeade is, let me paint the picture for you. This is the
minute, secondssingle largest American military base in the entire Middle East. It sits about miles outside of Doha, Qatar's capital.
minute, secondsIt's the forward headquarters of US Central Command. It typically hosts around American service members and it's the operational nerve center for everything the US military does in
Chapter : Missile strikes and base impact
minute, secondsthe region. This is the base from which American bombers launch their strikes on Iran. This is the base where intelligence operations are coordinated.
minutesThis is the brain of the American military presence in the Gulf. And Iran knew exactly what it was. So Iran targeted it repeatedly, aggressively,
minutes, secondsand with escalating intensity as the war dragged on. The first confirmed strike on Aluade came on March the rd,
minutes, secondsQatar's own defense ministry confirmed it. One Iranian ballistic missile slipped through the air defense systems while a second was intercepted. Now, the
minutes, secondsPentagon was careful in how it described the damage. They said there were no casualties. They were very quiet about what exactly was hit. Here's what
minutes, secondsinvestigative reports and satellite imagery started revealing. The missile or a follow-up drone from a related wave appeared to target the ANFPS
minutes, secondsearly warning radar system stationed near Al Ud at a location called Um Dal.
minutes, secondsThis is a billion-dollar radar. It's a massive phased array system capable of tracking ballistic missiles coming from up to km away. It feeds data into
minutes, secondsTHAAD, Patriot batteries, and allied defense networks across the entire Gulf region. Think about what that means.
minutes, secondsIran didn't just lob a missile at a random building. Iran targeted the eyes of the American air defense system in the Middle East. If that radar goes
minutes, secondsdark, US forces lose their early warning capability. Intercepting the next wave of missiles becomes dramatically harder.
minutes, secondsIt was a precision strike designed not just to destroy but to blind. And it gets more dramatic because two days before the confirmed hit on all UDA,
Chapter : The claims vs confirmed reports
minutes, secondssomething even more audacious happened.
minutes, secondsSomething that would have been unthinkable just weeks earlier. On the morning of March nd, Iran's Revolutionary Guard dispatched two
minutes, secondsSoviet era Sutactical bombers toward Al Udate air base in Roslafen, Qatar's critical natural gas processing facility. These were manned aircraft
minutes, secondscarrying actual bombs and guided munitions flying toward an American base. And here's the detail that sent shock waves through military circles.
minutes, secondsThese bombers were flying at an altitude of just ft. ft above the ground.
minutes, secondsThat's below the radar threshold. They were hugging the Earth trying to sneak in underQar's air defense network. And they almost made it minutes. That's
minutes, secondshow close they came. minutes away from their targets. When Qatar finally scrambled its F-fighters, a Qatari F-engaged the Iranian bombers in what
minutes, secondsbecame the Qatari Air Force's first ever aerial combat engagement. The Iranian aircraft were shot down and crashed into Qatari territorial waters. Qatar's
minutes, secondsforeign ministry immediately launched a search for the crews. US General Dan Kaine, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, confirmed the incident at a Pentagon briefing. He told reporters
minutes, secondsthat Qatari fighters had, for the first time, shot down two Iranian bombers in route to their target. He didn't specify the target. He didn't need to. Everyone
minutes, secondsin that room knew exactly where those bombers were headed. Now, let's talk about the broader picture because Aluade was just one piece of Iran's campaign.
minutes, secondsSimultaneously, Iran's IRGC Navy launched cruise missile strikes on fighter aircraft hangers at two more American installations, Shake Isa air
minutes, secondsbase in Bahrain and Aldafra Air Base in the UAE. High explosive cruise missiles targeting the hangers where American fighter jets were parked. Iran
minutes, secondsspecifically called out Aldafra in the UAE as a priority target, claiming it was the launch point for recent US strikes against Iranian islands. The
Chapter : Regional implications
minutes, secondsIRGC confirmed that following these strikes, Aldafer's operational capacity had been, in their words, severely reduced. Now, Iranian state media
minutes, secondsclaimed that dozens of American aircraft were destroyed on the ground at these facilities. Western sources have not confirmed those exact numbers, but the
minutes, secondsfact that hardened aircraft hangers were hit with high explosive cruise missiles is not in dispute. This is the scenario military planners have feared for years.
minutes, secondsAmerican air power depends on forward deployed aircraft. Those aircraft are vulnerable on the ground. If Iran can reach inside the Gulf and hit hangers before those jets can scramble,
minutes, secondsAmerica's ability to project air power in the region takes a serious blow. It's not science fiction anymore. It's what's happening right now. By the time Iran
minutes, secondslaunched its th wave of Operation True Promise on March th, the picture was even grimmer. The IRGC's Katam al- Anvia
minutes, secondscentral headquarters confirmed another strike on Aluade using a combination of Zulfagar ballistic missiles, Cham liquid fuel missiles, and explosive drones.
minutes, secondIran was rotating through its entire missile arsenal systematically. Each wave was designed not just to cause damage, but to exhaust American and Gulf
minutes, secondsair defenses. And here's something the military analysts are watching very carefully. Iran has now fired more than ballistic missiles and over a
minutes, secondsthousand drones across the Gulf region since this war began. Most have been intercepted, but most is not all. And everyone that gets through teaches
minutes, secondsIran's targeting teams what works. Every interception gives Iran data on how Western air defenses respond. This is not random. This is a learning campaign.
minutes, secondsUS casualties are mounting. American service members had been killed as of mid-March, around wounded. Six died in a single drone strike at a makeshift
minutes, secondsoperation center at Schwea Port in Kuwait. On a separate occasion, a KCStrat tanker crashed in western Iraq,
minutes, secondskilling all six crew members. And in a deeply embarrassing friendly fire incident, Kuwaiti FAs accidentally
minutes, secondsshot down three American F-East Strike Eagles. Fortunately, all six crew members survived. This is the chaos of a real war, and the American public is
minutes, secondsonly getting fragments of it. The Pentagon is managing the information very carefully. They acknowledge casualties in careful clinical language.
minutes, secondsThey confirm some strikes but give no details on damage. They emphasize the number of Iranian missiles intercepted while being very quiet about the ones
minutes, secondsthat got through. Now, let's address the elephant in the room. The claim that American fighter jets were destroyed on the ground at Al UD. Where does that
minutes, secondsnumber come from? It appears to have originated from Iranian state media claims and was amplified on social media. Western governments in the Pentagon have not confirmed the figure.
minutes, secondsWhat we do know is that Al- Udade was hit, that radar infrastructure was damaged, that hangers at multiple Gulf bases were struck by cruise missiles,
minutes, secondsthat Iran's stated goal is the complete destruction of what it calls American military infrastructure in the region. Whether the number is or six or
minutes, secondsthe strategic message is the same. Iran is reaching inside America's most protected bases in the Middle East. It is demonstrating that distance and air
minutes, secondsdefenses are not absolute guarantees and it is signaling to every American ally in the region that hosting US military forces comes at a price. Qatar is a fascinating case study in all of this.
minutes, secondsQatar has historically maintained a balancing act, hosting American troops at Aludade while simultaneously maintaining warm ties with Iran and
minutes, secondsserving as a mediator between Thran and Washington. Qatar even sheltered Hamas political leadership for years. But now
minutes, secondsIran is firing missiles at Qatari airports, targeting Qatari industrial facilities and sending bombers over Qatari airspace. That balancing act just
minutes, secondsbecame much harder to sustain. Qatar responded by arresting people it accused of being IRGC operatives on Qatari soil, including suspected spies
minutes, secondsand a sabotage cell trained to use drones. Qatar's prime minister called Iran's actions escalatory. He told Iran directly that this approach suggests
minutes, secondsIran wants to drag its neighbors into a war that isn't theirs. The relationship between Doha and Tran is fractured. The diplomatic bridge that Qatar spent decades building has just been bombed,
minutes, secondsliterally. And what about the broader regional picture? The US has now struck approximately targets inside Iran since the war began. Iran's military and
minutes, secondsnuclear infrastructure has taken catastrophic damage. Supreme Leader Kame is dead, but Iran is still firing. Iran
minutes, secondsis still sending bombers. Iran is still launching the th, th, th wave of Operation True Promise. This is a regime
minutes, secondsfighting for its survival and choosing to make that fight as painful as possible for everyone in the region. The question the White House is wrestling with right now is at what point does
minutes, secondsIran run out of missiles? And the harder question, what happens if it doesn't run out before American public opinion turns? dead, wounded, bases being
minutes, secondshit, friendly fire incidents, tankers disrupted, oil prices spiking. How long can the US sustain this operationally,
minutes, secondspolitically, and economically? These are the questions that don't fit neatly into a threeminute news segment. Which is exactly why we're here at John AG Reports to give you the full picture,
minutes, secondsthe deeper context, the things that actually matter. Because this war is reshaping the Middle East in real time.
minutes, secondsAnd how it ends or whether it ends is going to affect energy prices, global trade, American foreign policy, and regional security for decades to come.
minutes, secondsWhat you're watching right now is history being made. And the story of Aluade, whether jets were destroyed or six, is a symbol of something much
minutes, secondsbigger. The era of untouchable American forward bases in the Middle East is over, Iran has proven it can reach them.
minutes, secondsThe question now is what America does next. Before I wrap up, I want to hear from you. Do you think Iran can sustain
minutes, secondsthis missile campaign long-term, or is this the last major push before the regime collapses? Drop your answer in the comments right now. And if this
minutes, secondsvideo gave you information you didn't see anywhere else, share it with someone who needs to understand what's happening in the Middle East. That one share might be the reason they finally get the full story. This has been John AG reports.
minutes, secondsStay locked in. More coverage coming.

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Alastair Crooke: Iran's Missiles AVENGE Larijani, Tel Aviv BURNS as Trump Panics
Danny Haiphong
Streamed live 5 hours ago #iran #trump #israel

Former UK Diplomat and Middle East expert Alastair Crooke joins to discuss Iran's massive retaliation for the decapitation strike that took out Ali Larijani head of the National Security Council, and a full break down of the Iran war.



Transcript

Welcome everyone. Welcome back to the show. It's your host Danny Hiong. As you can see, I am joined by Alistister Crook. He's a former UK diplomat and
secondsexpert on all things Middle East geopolitical analyst. Alistister, great to be back with you today.
secondsThank you very much. It's also a pleasure to join you.
secondsYes, it's great. Everyone hit the like button as we get started as that will help boost this show. But Alistair,
secondslet's get started right away. So yesterday over the last hours was uh wave number of Operation True Promise
secondsAccording to many reports at least sites were hit in Tel Aviv. Uh the sensors have been breaking of late in
secondsrecent days and weeks as this war continues. Um a major train station was hit. It seems like the escalation
secondsagainst Israel is according to Iran is in large part because of the assassination of Ali Larajani which
secondshappened in the last hours. The head of the National Security Council. Now uh in the hours before this show,
minute, secondsIsrael has hit uh major gas lines in the south of Iran, I believe. And now Iran,
minute, secondsas we were talking about before the program, Alistister, is looking to target gas and oil fields all across the Gulf States in the region, Kuwait,
minute, secondsQatar, etc. I'll pull up some of those images, but I want your reaction to uh where we are in this war now as we enter
minute, secondsas we are now in the third week and uh as the escalations on all side become sides be especially the US-Israeli side
minute, secondsbecome very inconsistent and uh almost halfhazard. What's your assessment of the situation?
minute, secondsUh well essentially despite what has happened uh to Larijani
minute, secondsum uh who was the head of the if you like the security apparatus the the
minute, secondssupreme national security council. um his uh loss, I mean, will be felt and
minutes, secondsalso as often is the case with Israeli assassinations,
minutes, secondsuh uh it often um they often target the most moderate people and they are
minutes, secondsreplaced by people that are more hardline. We don't know who's going to replace him, but he was um he was a very
minutes, secondslearned person, a very intellectual uh clever man. He um was a philosopher and his he will be lost. He was also,
minutes, secondsyou know, to a certain extent with his connections to the reformists. So he was a centrist more than anything else. Um
minutes, secondsand of course he will as you know it's the standard practice it has been in Iran uh to um anoint and have prepared
minutes, secondsyour successor and your successor's successor as well. Everyone has to do that these days since the beginning of
minutes, secondsthe war. It's mandatory for all the military and for all the political leaders uh to or have a successor who's
minutes, secondsready just to step straight into the shoes. Um and the war itself won't be much changed by it because the war has
minutes, secondsbeen is led really by Khalibah the former mayor um who is a military former
minutes, secondsmilitary officer. Um he was also speaker of parliament. Um he's a formidable uh
minutes, secondsuh figure uh um and much admired in Iran and he has been in charge of the the
minutes, secondsside of the immediate response to events on the ground. It doesn't always go to the full security council. There is a
minutes, secondssmaller, more specific, more expert committee of military and technical
minutes, secondsofficials that deal with the war as it unfolds. And Khalibar has been managing that really since the outset. And indeed
minutes, secondsduring the he was the person managing if you like the response to the um violent
minutes, secondsprotests uh uh that took place um uh uh in January.
minutes, secondsAnd uh uh Alistister, what do you make of these reports? I know that you said on conflict forums there you're you're
minutes, secondspublishing a very important piece that's coming out u very soon and there's also reports I think that go along with uh
minutes, secondswhat you are about to release that talk about how uh Israel is having not only a lot of difficulties with the missile
minutes, secondsfire and the fact that they are likely running out of uh interceptors as we speak as Iran hits them every single day
minutes, secondssince February th But now Israel is uh according to a cable that the state department has uh has leaked to
minutes, secondsWashington Post said that they told their US counterparts they hope for an uprising even though it lead to a massacre. But that cable said that Iran
minutes, secondsis not cracking and it's willing to fight till the end leading to a need to re-evaluate the goals of the war. What have you made of of this uh Alistister?
minutes, secondsBecause over the course of this war, now we are into week three. Um it appears while the escalations continue and the and the strikes continue on Iran,
minutes, secondsthere's a lot of questions about even an intel officer, the number two I believe to Tulsi Gabbard now leaving. There's a
minutes, secondslot of questions about Joe Kent. There's a lot of questions about what exactly not only is this war for, but is it is it winnable at all?
minutes, secondsWell, those are big questions, but let me first of all say in these last few days because we follow the news,
minutes, secondsparticularly the Hebrew uh channels very carefully, the Hebrew press, um what we
minutes, secondshave seen has been quite a noticeable shift. The vibe is different, very very
minutes, secondsdifferent in these last few days. And people have been saying, well, it's time for Trump to declare victory and to get
minutes, secondsout. I mean, senior military officials from Israel are saying this and others
minutes, secondsare saying the same. And so, for these days, it's it's been very odd. I mean,
minutes, secondsfor us, we've looked at it and you can see that something has been taking place, but it's not clear what that is.
minutes, secondsI mean that's obvious from the whole range of comments that were coming in
minutes, secondsabout three or four days ago and recently as yesterday and the day before when you look at the Hebrew press there
minutes, secondswas no comments about the war. I mean it was just off the pages. There was um
minutes, secondscommentaries about rivalries between coalition partners in the government and
minutes, secondswho might be going up and who might be going down and other ones about legal aspects and the attorney general and so
minutes, secondson. But everyone seemed to be avoiding the big issue, the elephant in the room,
minutes, secondsthe war with Iran. And it wasn't clear why or what was really going on.
minutes, secondsHowever, today it seems we've got some inkling of what's been happening or what is happening because Yedanot,
minutes, secondswhich is a Hebrew paper, uh has an interview uh with Ronan Bergman. Ronan Bergman is a sort of premier political
minutes, secondscorrespondent. He also writes for the New York Times um in uh the US. Um but he's renown and a serious commentator.
minutes, secondsuh and he writes in his column uh today that Netanyahu has has given up um on
minutes, secondsthe total victory which you know has been his theme for all this time. He's given up and Bergman says that Netanyahu
minutes, secondshas saying that it is clear that um and this is a big change on the part of
minutes, secondsNetanyahu. Netanyahu is saying, you know, we're not going to achieve the success we hope for in Iran. Um, we're
minutes, secondsnot going to um destroy the state. The state is not going to fall. There's not going to be an overthrow of the state by an opposition. It's not going to happen.
minutes, secondsUm, and uh we are going to have to redefine our victory in different ways.
minutes, secondsAnd he goes on to say that you know we still have these other wars and Bergman says well and you know the wars are not
minutes, secondsgoing well whether it's in um Gaza with Hamas or whether it's in Lebanon or
minutes, secondswhether it is elsewhere for example in Iraq I mean all of these are fairing
minutes, secondsbadly. So, how are we going to re re redefine victory? And then Yahoo comes up with a strange sort of formula
minutes, secondssaying, well, you know, it Iran was a threat, but it's not existential threat anymore. It's just a threat and we have
minutes, secondsother threats. Threats go up, threats go down, and you know, we have our alliances and our forms and we are
minutes, secondsemerging as a global power thanks to these efforts.
minutes, secondsum it really doesn't hold together very convincingly, but this is this is the story that he's putting out. But at the
minutes, secondssame time, Katz is announcing that henceforth any Iranian official that they identify
minutes, secondsor can locate uh they will kill um automatically. It doesn't need authorization. blanket authorization is
minutes, secondsgiven to kill all and any Iranians that they can see and identify. So
minutes, secondsthat's an escalation on that part. Uh the second big escalation that has
minutes, secondshappened just in this period um today effectively was that um I don't know who
minutes, secondsled this whether it seems as if it was led by uh Israel but that they are the
minutes, secondsreports indicate that it was with the green light from the US from Trump the
minutes, secondsattack on um the gas field south path pass. South Pass is this huge gas field
minuteswhich is shared with Gata. It's divided between the two, but this provides much
minutes, secondsof the um gas resources for Iran. It is a it is a serious source of energy for
minutes, secondsIran in terms of the gas. And so what we've seen in consequence uh or um in
minutes, secondsaddition to it is that now um the IRGC
minutes, secondshas warned uh five gas and uh oil
minutes, secondsfacilities throughout the Gulf that to be evacuated that all the staff must leave it immediately.
minutes, secondsUh and we've seen overnight a huge escalation in response to the assassination of um
minutes, secondsAli Larijani, the head of the National Security Council uh in um in in Tehran.
minutesApparently he was uh they managed to identifying him identify him staying uh
minutes, secondsovernight in an apartment um of his um by his daughter I think and so so uh
minutes, secondsthey're all killed and all his security detail are called killed too. So there
minutes, secondshas been a massive attack um into Israel and Hezbollah has also been pummeling
minutes, secondsthe center of Israel. Major attack across Israel um from Hezbollah. Um, of
minutes, secondscourse, you know, the censorship uh in Israel is is near total and as yet I
minutes, secondsmean the Israelis I mean very deliberately and we have evidence of this that the Israelis are careful when
minutes, secondsyou see um a film which purports to show some sort of the result of a strike by
minutes, secondsIran in Israel. what you generally see is a little bit of debris uh lying around and or perhaps a damaged car and
minutes, secondswe're told you know light or no injuries and um we know because um an Israeli
minutes, secondsjournalist has has said this uh that actually what's happening is it's deliberate the Israeli official
minutes, secondsjournalists um or broadcasting um uh journalists are going and they deliberately avoid showing any main
minutes, secondsdamage, but just focus on something trivial,
minutes, secondsa sort of damaged car or some debris um on the street as if they're acting as real journalists, as if they're giving a
minutes, secondspicture of what's happening. And it's not the picture at all. they're just deliberately filming a sort of minimal
minutes, secondssort of effect um and publishing that as if that's all all all all that happens.
minutes, secondsSo total we we don't know and Israel too I mean it's been sort of rather a magical war from that side because you
minutes, secondsknow every time it was you know no no injuries claimed or you know
minutes, secondsone Sri Lankan was injured as a result of this attack. Uh and I think this is the first day that they've actually said that two people were killed. Otherwise,
minutes, secondsthis is a war, you know, where there apparently according to the Israeli studies, they've not admitted really to
minutes, secondsto any deaths. A few injuries, people are in hospital, but no, I mean, it's a bit like America. America's doing the
minutes, secondssame thing pretty much. How many people are dead or killed? Oh, well, you won't get those from the United States from
minutes, secondsHexath. He just says, well, six people died in that refueling tanker that came down in in Iraq. And others, there are
minutes, secondsinjuries, but they're all back in in service. They're all part of they've been rehabilitated into service again.
minutes, secondsSo um the idea that no one has been killed or injured in the attacks you know across a bill where there's been
minutes, secondsheavy attacks on American um bases in a
minutes, secondsbill and in Iraq um you know people apparently have had some psychological
minutes, secondseffects but light injuries. So we don't know we don't know what's been attacked.
minutes, secondsWe do know that there have been um serious attacks with the some of the advanced weapons. The Koram Sha weapon
minutes, secondsum was clearly being used um towards Israel uh last night. But what effect
minutes, secondsthese are having, we don't know. But it's really instructive now to learn that Netanyahu is trying to uh reverse
minutes, secondshis narrative. Instead of calling for um the big war, the war that he persuaded Trump um to lead on um this war is now,
minutes, secondshe says, not going to be um pursued because it's um if you like, it's
minutes, secondsunwinable. They're not going to achieve their main objectives. They're still going to go after Iran as other
minutes, secondsadversaries. But it's going to be redefined in a new way. It's going to be
minutes, secondsredefined as uh that the that Israel has these threats, but these threats are not
minutes, secondsabsolute. They are relative. They go up and they go down. And there are other threats. and we have different threats
minutes, secondsand we will win in all of them and that is going to be our victory. But actually
minutes, secondsuh def destroying Iran and having um uh collapsing uh the the the state is no
minutes, secondslonger uh possible likely to be achieved and therefore is not on the agenda anymore. big change and it comes at a time when Trump is escalating.
minutes, secondsYeah. Yeah. Maybe you can talk about uh how how Trump is escalating here because as you said uh the sensors are just
minutes, secondsincredible. uh Israel was obviously preparing for uh what Iran was going to do and has tried to cover up all of the
minutes, secondsdamage as much as it can or as you said highlight that it's uh targeting so-called civilians rather than making
minutes, secondsuh huge damage on uh Israeli infrastructure. I'll just show here there have been some getting out. Uh
minutes, secondsthere are power outages across the uh capital or you know at least the capital as the world recognizes it. Tel Aviv. Uh
minutes, secondsthere's also been just massive images of last night of these uh missiles that uh Iran has been launching, especially
minutes, secondsthose so-called cluster missiles at Kashima which have been used for many days now. And uh it's not just in the uh
minutes, secondsagainst Israel, they've been used there have been images over Dubai of these munitions, these submunitions being released from this missile in the sky.
minutes, secondsAnd many have noted that it's it's pretty unprecedented uh that Iran is using these and uh really evading all
minutes, secondsthese air defenses. But uh to your point, Alistair, if you could react to the energy question because prices, as I
minutes, secondswas showing as you were talking, uh they continue to go up. uh seems like a big uh escalation the US is pursuing is the
minutes, secondscontinuation of trying to either seize Iran's o you know uh Car Island, cut it off from its own oil production, supply
minutes, secondsand trade. Uh but at the same time, this has massive effects on oil prices. So much so to the point that Qatar reacted
minutes, secondsto what Israel did. Um they released a statement uh uh reacting to this that I'll pull up uh opposing it because they
minutes, secondshave uh uh been affected dramatically by Iran's drone strikes and missile strikes
minutes, secondsuh now go that are going to target their energy infrastructure specifically uh although they have been doing it to a
minutes, secondsdegree even up till now. So your reaction to this, how how does this play out in the war? Because this is what a lot of the mainstream media is talking
minutes, secondsabout right now is how this is going to affect the energy question.
minutes, secondsWell, in word, it's going to affect it badly.
minutes, secondsIt was um Iran had been careful uh not to affect the not to bomb or or strike
minutes, secondsat the infrastructure, the energy infrastructure until now. It it yes, you know, um uh storage tanks and others
minutes, secondswere attacked, but their focus was much more on ports. Um and that had a different objective to it was on ports,
minutes, secondsbut it was about the Homo straight and about changing the geopolitical balance
minutes, secondsum within the region. Ports are important because particularly Bahrain port which is borne the brunt of
minutes, secondsthis was the home to the fifth fleet but it was a home to much more. It was a home to a major intelligence gathering
minutes, secondscenter, to radars, to administrative centers, um to munitions, a whole
minutes, secondsintelligence infrastructure um uh was based in Bahrain and that's been systematically destroyed. And part of this is to reestablish,
minutes, secondsif you like, Iranian um control over the whole of the Homos corridor. Um and this
minutes, secondsum and I this is deliberately to if you like flip the whole geopolitical
minutes, secondsstrategy because this was you know the Americans have controlled you know the
minutes, secondsRed Sea and Horos through the fifth fleet and the Red Sea up until the Houthies um started their work on it.
minutes, secondsBut they have controlled that and the object and um Trump has made this very clear is to have a dominance over the
minutes, secondschoke points and the sea corridors, the navigation corridors of the globe. Um
minutes, secondsfirst of all to squeeze China to squeeze China's um uh oil inputs. I mean, we
minutes, secondsthat was what Venezuela was largely about because most of Venezuelan oil uh was heading to head heading to to to
minutes, secondsChina. Um and it's also about squeezing in the other direction. It's been about squeezing Russian oil. Uh the if you
minutes, secondslike the seizure of tankers, the attacks on tankers um in the Black Sea and in
minutes, secondsthe Baltic. I mean all of this was quite clearly you know the new war was to sort
minutes, secondsof try and suppress Chinese economic development by limiting its energy
minutes, secondssupply. Uh and uh secondly it it was if you like um to stop Russian
minutes, secondsexports of oil. So they are now reestablishing and taking if you like I
minutes, secondsI because you know they even attack ports in Oman. Oman has been friendly to to to
minutes, secondsIran but because that is part of the network of American attempts to dominate um the sea um and navigation routes.
minutes, secondsSo that has been um an important element. So by and large they've left the actual infrastructure of energy
minutes, secondsuntouched until today and that was because um Trump agreed or
minutes, secondsgreenlighted according to the Israelis an attack on South P's gas field and
minutes, secondsSouth P's uh field that serves Iran. So now it's all restraint is off and um
minutes, secondsIran feels free to attack all uh oil installation. Of course it's going to
minutes, secondshave a big effect on the economy. Of course it's going to affect particularly
minutes, secondsGulf states. But finally I mean the Gulf States have to uh probably at some point
minutes, secondsdecide where they stand on this war. I mean until now they've been firmly in
minutes, secondsthe Washington um if you like ambit they have been completely you know
minutes, secondsAmericanized and Israeli dependent on for technology and for AI and um for um
minutes, secondsnow increasingly tourism uh it has been but all of that's changed I mean the business model of the Gulf is broken I
minutes, secondsmean you Some people will stay on in Dubai and other places maybe, but there's been a big exodus uh from Dubai.
minutesNot just tourists, but other people who say they're not going back because it's not. It's broken. We went there because
minutes, secondswe thought it was safe, secure, and you know, plenty of money to be earned there. Now, it's not so safe, not so
minutes, secondssecure, and not so much money going to be around. So the the Gulf states have to decide. I mean they will be dependent
minutes, secondson Iran for the their revenue from now not from the United States but Iran can
minutes, secondseither green light their vessels to pass um through the straits of Hormuz or not.
minutes, secondsAnd furthermore,
minutes, secondsa a state like UAE uh imports all its food through Hormuz as well. Uh UA uh
minutes, secondsdata exports its gas through Hormuz. All of these are going to be subject to the permission being granted um uh by Iran.
minutes, secondsUm so this is going to continue to be a a vital issue in this period and
minutes, secondsum the ability of the west to do anything about it is very very very small to being almost non-existent.
minutes, secondsThe reason being and we've heard from Trump frequently you know oh well we've sunk their navy. Well, Iran really
minutes, secondsdidn't have a navy in the proper sense of it deliberately because navies are sort of vulnerable now. They don't have
minutes, secondsbattleships and carriers or anything like that. But what they do have is real deterrence because they have first of
minutes, secondsall uh underwater um drones that move very fast, can be
minutes, secondsdirected and can be and find their own targets. very rapid. They're like sort of high-speed torpedoes. Very little,
minutes, secondsvery difficult to do anything about those. Then they have unmanned surface drones, i.e. like effectively like a speedboat packed with these explosives.
minutes, secondsUm, but that also moves very fast and can be steered so that it can zigzag around and that I think you probably
minutes, secondsseen videos has uh indeed struck um an American link tanker and it ended up in
minutes, secondsflames. Um but that's not the end of it because then they have small small surface vessels which um like speedboats
minutes, secondsbut which carry um anti-hship missiles too. And then you have beyond that uh
minutes, secondsIran has submarines that can fire uh anti-ship missiles while submerged.
minutes, secondsUm so this is this is their navy. It's not a battleship or a frigot. It is
minutes, secondsthese small very fast vessels and submarines. And you know it's all been thought through. And this is asymmetrical warfare. You don't need,
minutes, secondsthey didn't need a frigot there or anything like this. This would be pointless. But I wouldn't like to be the frigot or the tanker that tries to get
minutes, secondsthrough Hormuz. And they don't even need to use those because um actually from
minutes, secondsthe center point and they're making sure that people have to move past Kesh Island now, which is the narrowest
minutes, secondspoint. That's kilometers um from Iran, which means that the whole of that area is under fire control from back,
minutes, secondsnot from the coastal areas, but further back. Um artillery can reach all of that
minutes, secondsarea um easily. Um so that is I mean uh I I would think it's no surprise that no
minutes, secondsone has volunteered to escort a tanker through this. I mean, the the the the
minutes, secondsIranians control this uh utterly. What they're going to do with two and a half thousand Marines supposedly arriving in the next week or more, I have no idea.
minutes, secondsBut the coast, the Iranian coast uh um of Horos is
minutes, secondskilometers long, which means you've got it would be about one
minutes, secondsAmerican marine per kilometer over that coastline. Are they going to take that?
minutes, secondsAnd how are they going to suppress the artillery, let alone the the missiles that are honeycombed into that shore? As
minutes, secondsI say, you know, the Iranians have been preparing this for a very long time.
minutes, secondsThis is asymmetrical warfare and it has been thought out and it seems, you know,
minutes, secondsand Trump said, "Oh, we didn't expect this." You know, we didn't think they were going to. I didn't think they would shut Horos. Come on. I mean, the
minutes, secondsIranians have said that that they would if they were attacked, Hormos would be shut for the long term. They said that.
minutes, secondsI kept saying it. I think I probably said it on your program. That's what they would do and they've done it.
minutes, secondsAnd so what can America or Europe do about it? Uh nothing except um finally
minutes, secondsthey will have to come to terms with Iran. But the terms that Iran will impose on the United States to um get
minutes, secondsthe e economics um crisis resolved are going to be I think beyond um if you like the capacity
minutes, secondsof the United States to tolerate that degree of um retreat and humiliation. It
minutes, secondsit will be uh a lifting of all sanctions on Iran, a return of all their frozen
minutes, secondsassets. It it will include also um uh the end to all conflicts. Um it will
minutes, secondsinclude the continued enrichment of um uranium that nuclear project and it
minutes, secondswould also include I am almost certain the demand for Israeli withdrawal from
minutes, secondsGaza and an end to what is happening in um the West Bank. So that will be, I
minutes, secondsthink, quite hard for Washington to digest, but that's basically what they'd have to contemplate to to to set this right.
minutes, secondsYeah. I I I mean that's exactly what Iran is putting out there as proposals,
minutes, secondsdemands, whatever one wants to call them. But they are they are operating Iran is with the uh understanding that
minutes, secondthey are in fact uh dictating terms. Uh uh Alistister and I wanted to ask you,
minutes, secondsyou know, there was a there was a piece in the Financial Times and it talks about how with what you just described,
minutes, secondsuh this has essentially uh conclude this essentially imposed a conclusion on the world that the era of US dominance and
minutes, secondseconomic warfare is over. specifically citing something we've mentioned here on this show many times before, which is that sanctions are obviously just a tool
minutes, secondsto open up a wider war like we're seeing on Iran and that Iran has essentially flipped this against the United States and the entire world. Now,
minutes, secondsI wanted to ask you, you know, a lot of questions, Alistister, have been raised about Iran given that uh the US Sentcom,
minutes, secondsthey're putting out all kinds of data that looks very impressive. if it looks like the US is causing all kinds of
minutes, secondsdestruction that could uh change the outcome of this war. For example,
minutes, secondSentcom just said that they dropped bunker busters on the coastline and destroyed some of those anti-ship missile systems that you were describing
minutes, secondsthere. No, of course Iran says differently. Um but also they've said they've hit tens of thousands of targets. Iran says those are mostly
minutes, secondscivilian targets and Iran has not uh at least uh it hasn't been documented yet.
minutes, secondsFor example, the F-s that have been standoff striking Iran, uh Iran hasn't been able to hit them. And some have asked in this audience, Alistar, why why
minutes, secondsis it that uh the US and Israel are able to hit Iran like they have been? uh and what is the veracity and the uh validity
minutes, secondsof USIsraeli claims to this kind of dominance they say they're imposing despite the fact that uh you know you have the Financial Times talking about
minutes, secondsthis very important maybe the most important part of this war which is the economic realm uh being firmly in the hands and the grips of Iran's dictated
minutesterms that's quite a wide area that you've just outlined um but um let's start
minutes, secondsFirst of all, you know, what I've tried to get across to people repeatedly, um,
minutes, secondsfor me, this is sort of deja vu because I saw so much of this playing out when I
minutes, secondswas in Lebanon and during the war uh, in the south, the war of uh, Israel
minutes, secondsagainst Hezbollah at at the time. But first of all, the most important point to make is, you know, you can't compare,
minutes, secondsyou know, two things that are completely dislike, apples and oranges. You don't say, you know, which is better, which is, you know, tastier or something.
minutes, secondsThey're different. And Iran has been pursuing, if you like, um, an asymmetrical war. They've been planning
minutesfor it and preparing for it for years. They've thought about it deeply.
minutes, secondsThey have uh established a a system of decentralized command so that a decapitation does not stop the system.
minutes, secondsIn fact, by establishing a whole series of commands right across the whole
minutes, secondsextent of Iran with commanders with pre-desated targets to pursue in the
minutes, secondsevent of a war or the loss of a command or communications with Thran. Um they
minutes, secondshave um given them missiles. They sit on missiles capabilities. They have forces
minutes, secondsand they have the key thing is the initiative to pursue the war according to their instructions, their sealed
minutes, secondsinstructions as soon as a supreme leader is killed. Only a supreme leader has the authority to change any of those
minutes, secondsinstructions or to change the planning for the war. So when the supreme leader was killed immediately within an hour uh
minutes, secondsthe targets in the Gulf states were being hit very quickly because as I say all this is pre-organized pre-arranged
minutes, secondsso you know all the claims we hear from America about you know that they've you know killed the commander the leaders of
minutes, secondsthe of the military it's been you know decapitation Um, you know, they killed a supreme
minutes, secondsleader who was at home. I mean, it wasn't a great sort of intelligence coup. He was sitting at his desk in his home next to his office, which is part
minutes, secondsof his office. I've seen the house. It's a It's, you know, it's very identifiable. We all know where it is.
minutes, secondsIt's on the edge of a forest in North Thran. It's a very simple dwelling, a simple building. uh and he was there uh
minutes, secondwith um parts of his family all of whom were killed. Um I think it's fairly
minutes, secondsevident that in a sense and and the supreme leader did say before this he
minutes, secondssaid listen I'm I'm partly crippled I do what I have left is my dignity and
minutes, secondsthat is something you've given to me and I am ready to sacrifice that um for um
minutes, secondsIran and for its people and so I think he did deliberately um accept at martyrdom. I mean, he'd been told to
minutes, secondsmove and he said, "No, other people have not got anywhere to go, so I'm staying put." So, he was so he was killed and it
minutes, secondscreated a fast storm amongst she across the region.
minutes, secondsThe she are quite a tight community. Yes, there are differences. Some are seveners, some
minutesare s, etc. But it's created and many of the ayatalas of Marjah the people who
minutes, secondsare emulated and you go to for advice have mandated um uh that it is
minutes, secondsobligatory to um defend Iran. And they've mandated um and said they will
minutes, secondsmandate um jihad, mandatory jihad against um America and Israel. um if the
minutes, secondsattacks on the Maja um the the the leadership continue of of Shi. So um you
minutes, secondsknow this this this aspect to it has not succeeded. it's actually created. And one of the things
minutes, secondsI I said to you earlier, there was a sort of change in in the atmosphere in Israel, but there's a change in Iran.
minutes, secondsAnd what it's done is it's brought the Iranians together like they've never been since and the revolution. I
minutes, secondsmean, they are fully behind the state in this war against America. Um and you
minutes, secondsknow every night uh it's Ramadan and every night after the uh uh if the evening feast they go out and on the
minutes, secondsstreet and even if a a rocket arrives and in the crowds or by the crowds they
minutes, secondsdon't run they don't move they just stay there and they continue um to sing and
minutes, secondscall for retribution against America. So it's really brought people together and given them resilience and steadfastness.
minutes, secondsYes, that it's hurting. I mean that's what's happening as to this other aspect. This is false. And this is
minutes, secondsexactly what I saw in Lebanon in you know, the American Israeli propaganda was, "Oh, I mean, you know,
minutes, secondsthese, you know, flip-flopped, you know, footed um Hezbollah. I mean,
minutes, secondswhat chance of they against the biggest air force in the region and the most sophisticated army of Israel fighting
minutes, secondsthem? Of course, victory. I mean, they will just be obliterated."
minutes, secondsAnd um of course what happened was very different. Yes, they did obliterate they
minutes, secondsobliterated the residential area of Dah in Beirut. I went there, I saw it. I mean these were residential car blocks
minutes, secondsthat were they just knocked them down one after the other trying to create a a
minutes, secondssort of sense of despair and panic. Um and then you know and then we had all these statistics. Oh, we've done so many
minutes, secondsraids. We've dropped so many bombs. I mean, we've obliterated Hezbollah. They hadn't. Um, and what happened? It wasn't
minutes, secondsthe war of days that the Israelis said it would take to do those. It was
minutes, secondsdays until and then Israel asked for a ceasefire, demanded a ceasefire. Um, and you know what were they hitting? I went down, I saw the tunnels and everything.
minutes, secondsI went around the south. I mean, the tunnels, you know, they'd put dummies there and mockups of launchers and, you
minutes, secondsknow, they were they were striking when and what was very obvious to happen after a week. The Israelis announced
minutes, secondsthey they their data bank was over. They expended all their, you know, munitions on their data bank and they didn't have
minutes, secondsanything else. But since the war was going on, what did they do? Well, they started knocking down civilian houses
minutes, secondsand attacking houses um because we had to keep the statistics up. The war, you know, how many how many bombing raids
minutes, secondstoday, you know, general, how many raids yesterday, General, and so they've got to have something, but they're not
minutes, secondstargeted. And what we haven't seen um in Iran, we haven't seen any sign that they
minutes, secondshave been able to target the deeply buried sophisticated missiles. These ones that are dispersed right across you
minutes, secondsknow mountainous forested Iran um sides of Western Europe huge areas and these
minutes, secondsare buried deeply. There are no missile launchers available there because they are fired from silos meters down.
minutes, secondsThey come straight up through their silo tube and into the atmosphere into their
minutes, secondstarget and there's an automatic system at meters that rotates and puts a
minutes, secondsmiss next missile into place and then the missile after that. And so there are none of these mobile miss these mobile
minutes, secondsmissile launchers which do exist. But these are for the sort of more simple ballistic missile uh uh um types which
minutes, secondsare mostly used to sort of deplete air defenses either in the Gulf or or in Israel. And some of these ballistic
minutes, secondsmissiles actually most of the ballistic missiles that Israel is using at uh that Iran is using at this time uh they date
minutes, secondsfrom production uh batch. I mean they are old and they are early and
minutes, secondsthat's what they're using. They haven't really they've begun to use a few of the newer missiles. Uh but that is mainly
minutes, secondsbeing the the more sophisticated ones that we don't know what they all are going to be are being reserved um uh for
minutes, secondsthe attack on on Israel. So the whole thing is a phased process and we can detect where it is. The first phase was
minutes, secondsto destroy or sort of bring out and deplete the air defenses of the Gulf States. Secondly,
minutes, secondsto strike the American bases there, but primarily to destroy the radars to blind
minutes, secondsthe uh American um defensive system. And that's we know that's succeeded because
minutes, secondsthe Israelis are complaining bitterly that when once they had, you know, to minutes warning of an incoming missile so they could get down to the shelters.
minutes, secondsNow they're lucky to get one minute or none. And that's because the radars have gone and it's an integrated system. So
minutes, secondsit isn't giving them um the warning. It also spells why much of the if you like
minutesintercept capabilities of the Israelis um has deteriorated because without those radars and Hezbollah has been
minutes, secondsactually also destroying some of the radars in the north of of Israel. So that nearly all of them are are gone.
minutes, secondsAnd so um the American Air Force is doing this blind. And no, they do not
minutes, secondshave air dominance. Um the the they keep talking about bombing Thran as if their
minutes, secondsaircraft are flying anywhere they choose in um over Iran. But it it's not true.
minutes, secondsNearly all of these attacks are um standoff attacks from outside Iranian airspace. We saw a big performance about
minutes, secondsB's flying over um uh um and bombing um if you like the coastline of Hormuz. Um
minutes, secondsand you know the implication is they're free to fly over Iran. There's no problem. It's not true because we can
minutes, secondssee from the photographs uh that they were loading up uh with just some missiles. Now, I'm not a military
minutes, secondsperson, but I know that these essentially are glide missiles. They're not bombs, bunker buster bombs, as they
minutes, secondspretend in the press. These are long you standoff attacks that you uh drop them
minutes, secondsoutside of the airspace and then they glide in and hit hit the target. So what's the state of the war? Well, as I said to you a little time ago, you know,
minutes, secondsyou can't say I mean the point about um uh if you like the American,
minutes, secondsyou know, visually very obvious attack is how effective it's been. Well, the answer is we don't know totally how effective it's been.
minutesYou can't, you know, knocking down residential buildings in Tehran is not effective. it's actually counterproductive probably. So we don't
minutes, secondsknow how effective it is and the censorship on in um in Israel is
minutes, secondsabsolutely you know years imprisonment for photographing
minutes, secondsa missile from Iran arriving over it and years for um photographing it after
minutes, secondsthe event the effects of it. So we know very little about what it is. But that's why it was I think so important what I
minutes, secondssaid at the outset to this program that Netanyahu is saying we're not going to achieve our objectives. We're failing.
minutes, secondsWe're not going to collapse. The state isn't about to collapse. Very far from it. It's not going to collapse. We're not achieving our our our objectives.
minutes, secondsand we're going to have to think rethink this whole uh idea of the you know the the great war um and try and redefine it
minutes, secondsin in in a different in a different different way. So you know I'm sorry but that's a long answer to what sounds a
minutes, secondssimple question. Who's winning? Um uh uh I think I would say in some it's
minutes, secondsAmerica's and Israel's to lose and Iran has just got to um survive it and stand
minutes, secondsfirm and and dominate um if you like in the economic
minutes, secondssphere and also to inflict sufficient punishment
minutes, secondson Israel in its estimation means that Israel will never again decide, you
minutes, secondsknow, that it that it's a good idea to launch another war uh on uh on Iran.
minutes, secondsYeah. No, I think all of that was very important, Alistister, and it was a big question that I asked you. So, I think you covered all of the points. Uh and
minutes, secondsnow I'm glad you brought that up. Uh to end uh what you were saying there,
minutes, secondsAlistister, uh the economic sphere and dominating it. Well, the data is showing this in many ways. U since February
minutes, secondsth, it is being reported that Iran has actually exported at least million barrels of oil. Some people have told me it's definitely more than that. Uh
minutes, secondsearning at least billion or more uh despite oil prices soaring um and the straight of being closed. And this is
minutes, secondskind of the graph uh showing uh showing the price of oil. And uh what it doesn't mention here that particular
minutes, secondsreport uh is the importance of China uh China actually has uh purchased I believe most of uh Iran's exports at
minutes, secondsthis time and so I wanted to ask you given that there are reports about Russian intel helping with targeting uh
minutes, secondsthere's been a lot of reports back and forth about China's role but how have you made what have you made of Iran's response economically for itself to this
minutes, secondswar and and how it relates to this bigger shift that uh I think some have minimized which is this large multipolar
minutes, secondsshift in the world that is led by Russian China. Some have minimized it have have of course uh emphasized Israel's role in this war but it's
minutes, secondsobvious that the United States has a big uh goal here of uh destroying Iran so it can essentially destroy this global
minutes, secondsshift. But it seems like Iran in this realm has things pretty firmly under control as of right now and the US is
minutes, secondsafraid it seems to bomb Iran's exports given what that would do to the oil markets. But your reaction to this and
minutes, secondshow it fits in with this multipolar shift.
minutes, secondsUm well I I had started a little earlier saying that the domination of these
minutes, secondsseaways, these choke points and these corridors, naval corridors for energy
minutes, secondsproducts um was going to change the whole Gulf. the Gulf has got, if it wants to have revenue, if it wants to
minutes, secondsimport food, we'll have to deal with Iran and accept Iran's domination of this area. It's going to be a big
minutes, secondsgeopolitical um change for the Gulf, degrees change from for the Gulf.
minutes, secondsBut the bigger picture which you allude to is very important too because it changes a bigger geopolitical um map. Um
minutes, secondsyou said about China. China um % of the oil passing through Homos um has
minutes, secondsbeen um for delivered to to China. China is sending its tankers through Homos.
minutes, secondsthe Iranians allow their Chinese um tankers to pass um uh without incident.
minutes, secondsUm however um America keeps talking about well you know they're going to impose sanctions or or close it or
minutes, secondssomething. Um, nonetheless, that % of HMO's um exports um is actually for
minutes, secondsChina because it's such a big energy consumer only about % of its total energy consumption. So, you know, even
minutes, secondsif Hmuz was shut by the Americans taking some action, um the Chinese could live with that. It's not existential uh at
minutes, secondsall. But meanwhile what um again as part of the sort of geopolitical flipping the
minutes, secondsgeopolitical map uh Iran is saying if you want to um pass through the hormuz
minutes, secondstoday all you have to do is make it clear that it was bought and paid for
minutes, secondwith RMBI with Juan Chinese one and so that's how Pakistan managed to get its
minutes, secondstanker through India has been allowed to pass tankers through um and Pakistan
minutes, secondsmade a statement and convinced the Iranians that um their um their the
minutes, secondstheir cargo was transacted in Juan. So this is again nudging very firmly a a
minutes, secondsbigger geopolitical shift if you like for the whole of Asia and for um the
minutes, secondsworld to see that if you you know if in this new era if you want to do business and you want to do business in in energy
minutes, secondswell you have to shift and think about shifting to Juan um remember trade um if
minutes, secondsyou want to get a passage of your your your vessels through. So this is a really important element of the bigger
minutes, secondpicture of moving you know in a different in a different era and different direction for um both for
minutes, secondsChina and away from the dollar. So dollar cargos are not accepted. Dollar
minutes, secondspayments not accepted. Only Juan payments will get you through hormos. So this is an aspect that hasn't had much
minutes, secondsattention probably because you know America is absolutely determined to keep its dollar
minutes, secondshedgemony for reasons that we can see and understand but nonetheless uh are
minutes, secondsseen by the rest of the world as basically a form of coercion um to extract um concessions um from those
minutes, secondsstates either in terms of um giving money to the United States um or um else
minutes, secondsuh making investments into the United States in terms of manufacturing industries.
minutes, secondsYeah, know those are great points and uh you know as we as we head to the end here, Alistister, I just wanted to ask uh we were talking about the Gulf States
minutes, secondsbefore and you were talking about them being firmly in the US camp. It seems that the longer this war goes on though
minutes, secondsthat given that there's this shift happening in the world given that we've seen over the years uh a lot of hedging especially with Saudi Arabia um
minutes, secondsnormalizing with Iran etc. this war is kind of exposed I think that a lot of these Gulf states really don't have sovereignty and uh they are following US
minutes, secondsdictats uh despite the massive damage that Iran has done to US assets there and therefore uh the economies of these
minutes, secondsGulf states. What do you make of the future of the region now that uh you
minutes, secondsknow as this thing goes on it's obviously going to have massive economic uh impacts on on these states and uh do
minutes, secondyou foresee that that could then create a rupture? I'm even thinking, will they try to come together like they supposedly did before the strike started
minutes, secondsand try to really yank on uh Trump's uh coattails and say, "Hey, can uh can you stop this thing? Can you actually just
minutes, secondsmake a deal so we it doesn't lead to our ruination?" What do you make of this?
minutes, secondsBecause I I'm seeing a very bleak future for the likes of the UAE,
minutes, secondseven Saudi Arabia, Qatar. I mean, Qatar I don't think is is is pumping gas right now. I mean, it's a really bleak situation. So what's your uh what's your thoughts on this?
minutes, secondsYou didn't mention Bahrain, but Bahrain is in in a process of a color revolution, an outpost. It's, as you
minutes, secondsknow, to % she uh ruled by a Sunni monarch and a defense force that protects him, which is all Sunni. And
minutes, secondsthere's been um huge protests and uprising. I think what is shaking the
minutes, secondthe Gulf um is the sort of idea that you know that this could ignite if you like
minutes, secondsa different but a new sort of Arab spring because of you know they feel a
minutes, secondslack of legitimacy um in on the ground and so they are very concerned about it
minutes, secondsbut they have been so I think thorough thoroughly embedded into the western,
minutes, secondsyou know, economic AI investment paradigm that it's going to be hard for them to make a a
minutes, secondstransition or to get out of it. And whether I, you know, it's quite conceivable that we'll see um a very
minutes, secondsdifferent um geography in the future in in the Gulf uh region. Um maybe some states will disappear or change.
minutesI'm not going to predict how or what. I can't. But I think there's going to be a a a massive uh reaction to this. I mean,
minutes, secondsyou know, the whole lifestyle.
minutes, secondsI remember going to see the the head of um um the Amir of Gata once and um while
minutes, secondswe were waiting for the appointment, I sitting in his chief of staff's office and you know it was bizarre because it
minutes, secondswas like sort of being on Wall Street. I mean all the Bloomberg terminals tracking you know every movement you
minutes, secondsknow red green what's going up where's energy what stocks are rising I mean it was like a hedge fund and many of them
minutes, secondshave actually become sort of semi-hedge funds um and is it possible to continue in that sort of mode I I don't know I
minutes, secondsthink it quite doubtful um but it's going to as I say they have got existential
minutes, secondsum issue facing them. Where do they stand in this war now? Are they going to stand uh with the United States as
minutes, secondsUnited States escalates further against Iran or will they decide um that if they
minutes, secondswant to continue to trade and earn revenue um that they have to go and talk about a new relationship with Iran?
minutes, secondsThat's for us to wait and see.
minutes, secondsAnd then finally, my last question to you, Alistister, is how since uh I believe this is the first time we've talked since the uh February th uh uh
minutes, secondsbeginning of this uh massive kinetic escalation by the US and Israel began.
minutes, secondsUm how have you seen this affecting the other major flash points in the world,
minutes, secondsthe Ukraines, the of course the buildup toward China? How how has this war altered uh these uh I guess if you will
hour, secondareas of interest for uh the US empire and of course uh those it drags along with it.
hour, secondsIt depends a little bit on how this turns out. Um but it is already having a
hour, secondsa a really significant effect. I mean I think first of all uh the sense that I
hour, secondsmean you know that the word of the America of uh uh the American leadership
hour, secondsis not to be believed. Uh that you know after three deceptions in a row towards
hour, secondsIran um with decapitations providing for decapitations and that there were more
hour, secondsthan that. Um the lessons are about the dangers to one's own leadership. uh the
hour, secondsdangers of trying to do um negotiations uh with the United States. But more than
hour, minutethat is I think the effect of of this two things of this of this language um
hour, minute, secondsand also the effect um of uh you know that now increasingly people um as you
hour, minute, secondsknow the new truth social comes out uh overnight around the world people are laughing
hour, minute, secondslaughing at them um increasingly because sometimes they're quite absurd and what they say is quite absurd. So I think
hour, minute, secondsthere's that sense too. But also I think the thing that is quite striking I mean uh the the language is really I mean uh
hour, minute, secondsyou know talks about the Iranians as being evil people who cut the heads off
hour, minute, secondsbabies and cut women in half and that they are you know um people um I mean
hour, minutesthey you know that I mean this polarization that is implicit Is it in this language suggests that you know
hour, minutes, secondsthat you're talking about um a sort of such an extreme dichotomy of evil and uh
hour, minutes, secondssubhuman people on the one hand um that um obliteration um becomes really the only the only
hour, minutes, secondsoutcome and I think this is a bigger issue and we didn't touch on it but this
hour, minutes, secondsis something that is worrying a great number of Americans. I mean also about
hour, minutes, secondswhere do we stand in in this? I mean are we in favor of obliterations
hour, minutes, secondsor or or are we not and is it really this war was it really in America's interest greater interest of Americans?
hour, minutes, secondIf not who who was behind it? who controlled it, what was the um what was
hour, minutes, secondsthe mechanism, who's in charge and what interests were they pursuing.
hour, minutes, secondsSo this is a debate that is opened and I think is going to come to the forefront and this is going to have big impact on
hour, minutes, secondsthe elections. It's going to already having an impact. Um is Trump going to be able to recover? Are the Republican
hour, minutes, secondsparty going to be able to recover um from this? I think that's quite quite doubtful that the Republicans can can
hour, minutes, secondscan um recover. I listened to a a an an American politician who was at their the
hour, minutes, secondsRepublican meeting, Dural Club in um I think it's in Florida, uh one of Trump's
hour, minutes, secondsgolf clubs, and they were having a a meeting to discuss where things are going in lead up to the midterms. And he
hour, minutes, secondssaid, "Listen, I think most of them know that they're going to be drowned. uh some may hope to sort of stay afloat
hour, minutes, secondstill but most of them think they're going to get ground in the midterms. So
hour, minutes, secondsI think the unexpected element perhaps of this is I think it's going to induce
hour, minutes, secondsan introspection in the United States about you know what
hour, minutes, secondsis this if you like what is this unseen if you like a power structure uh that
hour, minutes, secondstakes us unairringly to war after war when it's clearly against our interests as expressed in the polls and in
hour, minutes, secondseverything that we do not want another war in the Middle East. So what is the power structure and who's behind it and
hour, minutes, secondswhat is their ultimate interests in this in the structure? We've had war going from Afghanistan, Iraq and Libya, all of
hour, minutes, secondsthese wars. I mean was this all in American interest? is the financial benefits that seem to come
hour, minutes, secondsout of these wars in the general interests of Americans. I think this is they're demanding that, you know, we
hour, minutes, secondshave to try and get to the bottom of this and and we have to discuss it
hour, minutes, secondsamongst ourselves and decide where we stand.
hour, minutes, secondsYeah, I think that's a great place uh to close, Alistar. I want to make sure that everybody knows to uh subscribe and follow uh conflicts forum substack which
hour, minutes, secondsis in the video description below. You can hit the like button too so more people know about uh both this conversation that we just had with
hour, minutes, secondsAlistair as well as the conflict for substack. You hit the and in addition to hitting the like button, there's many places to support the channel too in the
hour, minutes, secondsvideo description below. Patreon substack and much more. But Alistair uh any final words before we head out of here to the audience?
hour, minutes, secondsUh not really no nothing further. No from from what I said I mean many things
hour, minutes, secondsare going to change I believe in this period. It's an inflection point uh for America as much as it is for the Middle
hour, minutes, secondsEast and for China and Russia. Of course all sorts of messages. I mean, you can
hour, minutes, secondsimagine Russians are watching what's happened with Iran in their war as they continue their own war.
hour, minutes, secondsYeah, definitely. Well, sir, we'll have to keep in touch. We're going to leave here together. We'll be in touch and we will be back again with more updates uh
hour, minutes, secondshere on the show. Until next time, I'll be on p.m. Eastern time tomorrow. I will announce uh all of that very soon.
hour, minutes, secondsHit the like button before you go and I will see you all again tomorrow. Bye-bye.