Part 2 Anti-Anti-Nazi Barbarian Hordes are Knocking Down ...

[admin]

HORMUZ MINEFIELD: Iran’s Hidden Mines Trap 80+ Oil Tankers
Capital Breakdown
Mar 18, 2026 #hormuzcrisis #irannavy #oiltankers

Iran didn’t just threaten the Strait of Hormuz — it turned it into a weapon.

This is no ordinary disruption. Hidden naval mines have transformed the world’s most critical oil corridor into a live minefield, trapping over 80 oil tankers in a zone where movement itself has become a calculated risk.

Because in modern warfare, mines don’t chase targets — they control space.

Unlike missiles or drones, naval mines create something far more dangerous: uncertainty. One confirmed mine is enough to halt entire shipping lanes, forcing global trade into paralysis without a single shot being fired.

And that’s exactly what’s happening.

The Strait of Hormuz carries nearly 20% of the world’s oil supply. Now, with Iran deploying hidden mines, backed by naval patrols and selective passage control, this narrow waterway has become a geopolitical pressure point affecting energy markets worldwide.

Some ships are allowed through.
Others are left waiting.
And every decision is no longer commercial — it’s strategic.

Clearing these mines is slow, risky, and far from guaranteed. Every attempt to reopen the corridor exposes ships to further threats, escalating the situation beyond a simple blockade.

This isn’t just about trapped tankers.

This is about how a single choke point can reshape global power, disrupt economies, and redefine modern naval warfare.

If you want deeper military analysis that goes beyond headlines, make sure to Like, Subscribe, and stay ahead of the story.

[admin]

The Most Dangerous Phase of This War Has Begun
Daily-Reports
Mar 18, 2026 #StraitOfHormuz #OilCrisis #Iran

A narrow strip of water is now controlling the global economy.

The Strait of Hormuz — just 54 kilometers wide — carries nearly 20% of the world’s oil supply. And now, it has become the most powerful weapon in this conflict.

In this Daily Reports analysis, we break down:

• How Iran turned the Strait of Hormuz into a strategic pressure point without closing it
• Why oil prices are surging toward $150 per barrel
• The collapse of the U.S. coalition strategy in the region
• How global powers like China and Russia are shifting the balance
• The economic impact on Canada, the U.S., Europe, and global markets
• Why Gulf states are trapped between war and fear of Iran’s dominance
• The humanitarian crisis unfolding across the Middle East

This is no longer just a regional conflict.

It’s a global economic battle — and every country is now involved.

From fuel prices to food costs, the impact is already being felt worldwide.

The question is no longer if the system will feel the pressure — but how long it can survive it.

[admin]

US Air Base Under Fire — Did Iran Really Hit 60 Jets?
John AG Reports
Mar 18, 2026 #AlUdeid #IranStrike #USAirBase

The situation at Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar has raised global concerns. Iran has launched missiles targeting U.S. military infrastructure in the Gulf, but how much damage was actually done? Did 60 fighter jets really get destroyed? Watch this full breakdown to understand what really happened, confirmed reports, and what analysts are saying.



American fighter jets gone, just sitting on the ground at one of the most heavily guarded military bases on the planet. That's the claim coming out of
the Middle East right now. And whether you believe it or not, what actually happened at Aluate Air Base in Qatar is something the mainstream media is barely
secondstalking about. Welcome to John AG Reports. If you're new here, hit that subscribe button right now because we cover the stories that matter, the ones
secondsthat shape the world, and we don't sugarcoat them. Like this video if you want more coverage on the Iran war. It helps us reach more people who need to see this. Let's go back to the beginning
Chapter : Background on the U.S.-Iran conflict
secondsbecause to understand what just happened at Aluade, you need to understand how we even got here. This war didn't start with a random missile. It started on
secondsFebruary th, when the United States and Israel launched a massive coordinated surprise attack on Iran.
secondsThey hit military sites, government compounds, and command centers across the country. And in those first strikes,
secondsIran's Supreme Leader Ali Kam was killed. That changed everything because Iran didn't have a choice anymore. There was no diplomatic exit ramp, no back
minutechannel to call. The gloves came off and Iran began doing something it hadn't done in years. It started hitting back with everything it had. Within hours,
minute, secondsIran launched what it called Operation True Promise : Ballistic Missiles, cruise missiles, explosive drones,
minute, secondshundreds of them aimed at American military bases, Gulf State infrastructure, Israeli cities, and energy facilities across the region.
minute, secondsThis wasn't a warning shot. This was a full-scale military retaliation unlike anything seen in decades. And sitting right in the middle of all of this was
minute, secondsAl- Udade Air Base in Qatar. Now, if you don't know what Al- Udeade is, let me paint the picture for you. This is the
minute, secondssingle largest American military base in the entire Middle East. It sits about miles outside of Doha, Qatar's capital.
minute, secondsIt's the forward headquarters of US Central Command. It typically hosts around American service members and it's the operational nerve center for everything the US military does in
Chapter : Missile strikes and base impact
minute, secondsthe region. This is the base from which American bombers launch their strikes on Iran. This is the base where intelligence operations are coordinated.
minutesThis is the brain of the American military presence in the Gulf. And Iran knew exactly what it was. So Iran targeted it repeatedly, aggressively,
minutes, secondsand with escalating intensity as the war dragged on. The first confirmed strike on Aluade came on March the rd,
minutes, secondsQatar's own defense ministry confirmed it. One Iranian ballistic missile slipped through the air defense systems while a second was intercepted. Now, the
minutes, secondsPentagon was careful in how it described the damage. They said there were no casualties. They were very quiet about what exactly was hit. Here's what
minutes, secondsinvestigative reports and satellite imagery started revealing. The missile or a follow-up drone from a related wave appeared to target the ANFPS
minutes, secondsearly warning radar system stationed near Al Ud at a location called Um Dal.
minutes, secondsThis is a billion-dollar radar. It's a massive phased array system capable of tracking ballistic missiles coming from up to km away. It feeds data into
minutes, secondsTHAAD, Patriot batteries, and allied defense networks across the entire Gulf region. Think about what that means.
minutes, secondsIran didn't just lob a missile at a random building. Iran targeted the eyes of the American air defense system in the Middle East. If that radar goes
minutes, secondsdark, US forces lose their early warning capability. Intercepting the next wave of missiles becomes dramatically harder.
minutes, secondsIt was a precision strike designed not just to destroy but to blind. And it gets more dramatic because two days before the confirmed hit on all UDA,
Chapter : The claims vs confirmed reports
minutes, secondssomething even more audacious happened.
minutes, secondsSomething that would have been unthinkable just weeks earlier. On the morning of March nd, Iran's Revolutionary Guard dispatched two
minutes, secondsSoviet era Sutactical bombers toward Al Udate air base in Roslafen, Qatar's critical natural gas processing facility. These were manned aircraft
minutes, secondscarrying actual bombs and guided munitions flying toward an American base. And here's the detail that sent shock waves through military circles.
minutes, secondsThese bombers were flying at an altitude of just ft. ft above the ground.
minutes, secondsThat's below the radar threshold. They were hugging the Earth trying to sneak in underQar's air defense network. And they almost made it minutes. That's
minutes, secondshow close they came. minutes away from their targets. When Qatar finally scrambled its F-fighters, a Qatari F-engaged the Iranian bombers in what
minutes, secondsbecame the Qatari Air Force's first ever aerial combat engagement. The Iranian aircraft were shot down and crashed into Qatari territorial waters. Qatar's
minutes, secondsforeign ministry immediately launched a search for the crews. US General Dan Kaine, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, confirmed the incident at a Pentagon briefing. He told reporters
minutes, secondsthat Qatari fighters had, for the first time, shot down two Iranian bombers in route to their target. He didn't specify the target. He didn't need to. Everyone
minutes, secondsin that room knew exactly where those bombers were headed. Now, let's talk about the broader picture because Aluade was just one piece of Iran's campaign.
minutes, secondsSimultaneously, Iran's IRGC Navy launched cruise missile strikes on fighter aircraft hangers at two more American installations, Shake Isa air
minutes, secondsbase in Bahrain and Aldafra Air Base in the UAE. High explosive cruise missiles targeting the hangers where American fighter jets were parked. Iran
minutes, secondsspecifically called out Aldafra in the UAE as a priority target, claiming it was the launch point for recent US strikes against Iranian islands. The
Chapter : Regional implications
minutes, secondsIRGC confirmed that following these strikes, Aldafer's operational capacity had been, in their words, severely reduced. Now, Iranian state media
minutes, secondsclaimed that dozens of American aircraft were destroyed on the ground at these facilities. Western sources have not confirmed those exact numbers, but the
minutes, secondsfact that hardened aircraft hangers were hit with high explosive cruise missiles is not in dispute. This is the scenario military planners have feared for years.
minutes, secondsAmerican air power depends on forward deployed aircraft. Those aircraft are vulnerable on the ground. If Iran can reach inside the Gulf and hit hangers before those jets can scramble,
minutes, secondsAmerica's ability to project air power in the region takes a serious blow. It's not science fiction anymore. It's what's happening right now. By the time Iran
minutes, secondslaunched its th wave of Operation True Promise on March th, the picture was even grimmer. The IRGC's Katam al- Anvia
minutes, secondscentral headquarters confirmed another strike on Aluade using a combination of Zulfagar ballistic missiles, Cham liquid fuel missiles, and explosive drones.
minutes, secondIran was rotating through its entire missile arsenal systematically. Each wave was designed not just to cause damage, but to exhaust American and Gulf
minutes, secondsair defenses. And here's something the military analysts are watching very carefully. Iran has now fired more than ballistic missiles and over a
minutes, secondsthousand drones across the Gulf region since this war began. Most have been intercepted, but most is not all. And everyone that gets through teaches
minutes, secondsIran's targeting teams what works. Every interception gives Iran data on how Western air defenses respond. This is not random. This is a learning campaign.
minutes, secondsUS casualties are mounting. American service members had been killed as of mid-March, around wounded. Six died in a single drone strike at a makeshift
minutes, secondsoperation center at Schwea Port in Kuwait. On a separate occasion, a KCStrat tanker crashed in western Iraq,
minutes, secondskilling all six crew members. And in a deeply embarrassing friendly fire incident, Kuwaiti FAs accidentally
minutes, secondsshot down three American F-East Strike Eagles. Fortunately, all six crew members survived. This is the chaos of a real war, and the American public is
minutes, secondsonly getting fragments of it. The Pentagon is managing the information very carefully. They acknowledge casualties in careful clinical language.
minutes, secondsThey confirm some strikes but give no details on damage. They emphasize the number of Iranian missiles intercepted while being very quiet about the ones
minutes, secondsthat got through. Now, let's address the elephant in the room. The claim that American fighter jets were destroyed on the ground at Al UD. Where does that
minutes, secondsnumber come from? It appears to have originated from Iranian state media claims and was amplified on social media. Western governments in the Pentagon have not confirmed the figure.
minutes, secondsWhat we do know is that Al- Udade was hit, that radar infrastructure was damaged, that hangers at multiple Gulf bases were struck by cruise missiles,
minutes, secondsthat Iran's stated goal is the complete destruction of what it calls American military infrastructure in the region. Whether the number is or six or
minutes, secondsthe strategic message is the same. Iran is reaching inside America's most protected bases in the Middle East. It is demonstrating that distance and air
minutes, secondsdefenses are not absolute guarantees and it is signaling to every American ally in the region that hosting US military forces comes at a price. Qatar is a fascinating case study in all of this.
minutes, secondsQatar has historically maintained a balancing act, hosting American troops at Aludade while simultaneously maintaining warm ties with Iran and
minutes, secondsserving as a mediator between Thran and Washington. Qatar even sheltered Hamas political leadership for years. But now
minutes, secondsIran is firing missiles at Qatari airports, targeting Qatari industrial facilities and sending bombers over Qatari airspace. That balancing act just
minutes, secondsbecame much harder to sustain. Qatar responded by arresting people it accused of being IRGC operatives on Qatari soil, including suspected spies
minutes, secondsand a sabotage cell trained to use drones. Qatar's prime minister called Iran's actions escalatory. He told Iran directly that this approach suggests
minutes, secondsIran wants to drag its neighbors into a war that isn't theirs. The relationship between Doha and Tran is fractured. The diplomatic bridge that Qatar spent decades building has just been bombed,
minutes, secondsliterally. And what about the broader regional picture? The US has now struck approximately targets inside Iran since the war began. Iran's military and
minutes, secondsnuclear infrastructure has taken catastrophic damage. Supreme Leader Kame is dead, but Iran is still firing. Iran
minutes, secondsis still sending bombers. Iran is still launching the th, th, th wave of Operation True Promise. This is a regime
minutes, secondsfighting for its survival and choosing to make that fight as painful as possible for everyone in the region. The question the White House is wrestling with right now is at what point does
minutes, secondsIran run out of missiles? And the harder question, what happens if it doesn't run out before American public opinion turns? dead, wounded, bases being
minutes, secondshit, friendly fire incidents, tankers disrupted, oil prices spiking. How long can the US sustain this operationally,
minutes, secondspolitically, and economically? These are the questions that don't fit neatly into a threeminute news segment. Which is exactly why we're here at John AG Reports to give you the full picture,
minutes, secondsthe deeper context, the things that actually matter. Because this war is reshaping the Middle East in real time.
minutes, secondsAnd how it ends or whether it ends is going to affect energy prices, global trade, American foreign policy, and regional security for decades to come.
minutes, secondsWhat you're watching right now is history being made. And the story of Aluade, whether jets were destroyed or six, is a symbol of something much
minutes, secondsbigger. The era of untouchable American forward bases in the Middle East is over, Iran has proven it can reach them.
minutes, secondsThe question now is what America does next. Before I wrap up, I want to hear from you. Do you think Iran can sustain
minutes, secondsthis missile campaign long-term, or is this the last major push before the regime collapses? Drop your answer in the comments right now. And if this
minutes, secondsvideo gave you information you didn't see anywhere else, share it with someone who needs to understand what's happening in the Middle East. That one share might be the reason they finally get the full story. This has been John AG reports.
minutes, secondsStay locked in. More coverage coming.

[admin]

Alastair Crooke: Iran's Missiles AVENGE Larijani, Tel Aviv BURNS as Trump Panics
Danny Haiphong
Streamed live 5 hours ago #iran #trump #israel

Former UK Diplomat and Middle East expert Alastair Crooke joins to discuss Iran's massive retaliation for the decapitation strike that took out Ali Larijani head of the National Security Council, and a full break down of the Iran war.



Transcript

Welcome everyone. Welcome back to the show. It's your host Danny Hiong. As you can see, I am joined by Alistister Crook. He's a former UK diplomat and
secondsexpert on all things Middle East geopolitical analyst. Alistister, great to be back with you today.
secondsThank you very much. It's also a pleasure to join you.
secondsYes, it's great. Everyone hit the like button as we get started as that will help boost this show. But Alistair,
secondslet's get started right away. So yesterday over the last hours was uh wave number of Operation True Promise
secondsAccording to many reports at least sites were hit in Tel Aviv. Uh the sensors have been breaking of late in
secondsrecent days and weeks as this war continues. Um a major train station was hit. It seems like the escalation
secondsagainst Israel is according to Iran is in large part because of the assassination of Ali Larajani which
secondshappened in the last hours. The head of the National Security Council. Now uh in the hours before this show,
minute, secondsIsrael has hit uh major gas lines in the south of Iran, I believe. And now Iran,
minute, secondsas we were talking about before the program, Alistister, is looking to target gas and oil fields all across the Gulf States in the region, Kuwait,
minute, secondsQatar, etc. I'll pull up some of those images, but I want your reaction to uh where we are in this war now as we enter
minute, secondsas we are now in the third week and uh as the escalations on all side become sides be especially the US-Israeli side
minute, secondsbecome very inconsistent and uh almost halfhazard. What's your assessment of the situation?
minute, secondsUh well essentially despite what has happened uh to Larijani
minute, secondsum uh who was the head of the if you like the security apparatus the the
minute, secondssupreme national security council. um his uh loss, I mean, will be felt and
minutes, secondsalso as often is the case with Israeli assassinations,
minutes, secondsuh uh it often um they often target the most moderate people and they are
minutes, secondsreplaced by people that are more hardline. We don't know who's going to replace him, but he was um he was a very
minutes, secondslearned person, a very intellectual uh clever man. He um was a philosopher and his he will be lost. He was also,
minutes, secondsyou know, to a certain extent with his connections to the reformists. So he was a centrist more than anything else. Um
minutes, secondsand of course he will as you know it's the standard practice it has been in Iran uh to um anoint and have prepared
minutes, secondsyour successor and your successor's successor as well. Everyone has to do that these days since the beginning of
minutes, secondsthe war. It's mandatory for all the military and for all the political leaders uh to or have a successor who's
minutes, secondsready just to step straight into the shoes. Um and the war itself won't be much changed by it because the war has
minutes, secondsbeen is led really by Khalibah the former mayor um who is a military former
minutes, secondsmilitary officer. Um he was also speaker of parliament. Um he's a formidable uh
minutes, secondsuh figure uh um and much admired in Iran and he has been in charge of the the
minutes, secondsside of the immediate response to events on the ground. It doesn't always go to the full security council. There is a
minutes, secondssmaller, more specific, more expert committee of military and technical
minutes, secondsofficials that deal with the war as it unfolds. And Khalibar has been managing that really since the outset. And indeed
minutes, secondsduring the he was the person managing if you like the response to the um violent
minutes, secondsprotests uh uh that took place um uh uh in January.
minutes, secondsAnd uh uh Alistister, what do you make of these reports? I know that you said on conflict forums there you're you're
minutes, secondspublishing a very important piece that's coming out u very soon and there's also reports I think that go along with uh
minutes, secondswhat you are about to release that talk about how uh Israel is having not only a lot of difficulties with the missile
minutes, secondsfire and the fact that they are likely running out of uh interceptors as we speak as Iran hits them every single day
minutes, secondssince February th But now Israel is uh according to a cable that the state department has uh has leaked to
minutes, secondsWashington Post said that they told their US counterparts they hope for an uprising even though it lead to a massacre. But that cable said that Iran
minutes, secondsis not cracking and it's willing to fight till the end leading to a need to re-evaluate the goals of the war. What have you made of of this uh Alistister?
minutes, secondsBecause over the course of this war, now we are into week three. Um it appears while the escalations continue and the and the strikes continue on Iran,
minutes, secondsthere's a lot of questions about even an intel officer, the number two I believe to Tulsi Gabbard now leaving. There's a
minutes, secondslot of questions about Joe Kent. There's a lot of questions about what exactly not only is this war for, but is it is it winnable at all?
minutes, secondsWell, those are big questions, but let me first of all say in these last few days because we follow the news,
minutes, secondsparticularly the Hebrew uh channels very carefully, the Hebrew press, um what we
minutes, secondshave seen has been quite a noticeable shift. The vibe is different, very very
minutes, secondsdifferent in these last few days. And people have been saying, well, it's time for Trump to declare victory and to get
minutes, secondsout. I mean, senior military officials from Israel are saying this and others
minutes, secondsare saying the same. And so, for these days, it's it's been very odd. I mean,
minutes, secondsfor us, we've looked at it and you can see that something has been taking place, but it's not clear what that is.
minutes, secondsI mean that's obvious from the whole range of comments that were coming in
minutes, secondsabout three or four days ago and recently as yesterday and the day before when you look at the Hebrew press there
minutes, secondswas no comments about the war. I mean it was just off the pages. There was um
minutes, secondscommentaries about rivalries between coalition partners in the government and
minutes, secondswho might be going up and who might be going down and other ones about legal aspects and the attorney general and so
minutes, secondson. But everyone seemed to be avoiding the big issue, the elephant in the room,
minutes, secondsthe war with Iran. And it wasn't clear why or what was really going on.
minutes, secondsHowever, today it seems we've got some inkling of what's been happening or what is happening because Yedanot,
minutes, secondswhich is a Hebrew paper, uh has an interview uh with Ronan Bergman. Ronan Bergman is a sort of premier political
minutes, secondscorrespondent. He also writes for the New York Times um in uh the US. Um but he's renown and a serious commentator.
minutes, secondsuh and he writes in his column uh today that Netanyahu has has given up um on
minutes, secondsthe total victory which you know has been his theme for all this time. He's given up and Bergman says that Netanyahu
minutes, secondshas saying that it is clear that um and this is a big change on the part of
minutes, secondsNetanyahu. Netanyahu is saying, you know, we're not going to achieve the success we hope for in Iran. Um, we're
minutes, secondsnot going to um destroy the state. The state is not going to fall. There's not going to be an overthrow of the state by an opposition. It's not going to happen.
minutes, secondsUm, and uh we are going to have to redefine our victory in different ways.
minutes, secondsAnd he goes on to say that you know we still have these other wars and Bergman says well and you know the wars are not
minutes, secondsgoing well whether it's in um Gaza with Hamas or whether it's in Lebanon or
minutes, secondswhether it is elsewhere for example in Iraq I mean all of these are fairing
minutes, secondsbadly. So, how are we going to re re redefine victory? And then Yahoo comes up with a strange sort of formula
minutes, secondssaying, well, you know, it Iran was a threat, but it's not existential threat anymore. It's just a threat and we have
minutes, secondsother threats. Threats go up, threats go down, and you know, we have our alliances and our forms and we are
minutes, secondsemerging as a global power thanks to these efforts.
minutes, secondsum it really doesn't hold together very convincingly, but this is this is the story that he's putting out. But at the
minutes, secondssame time, Katz is announcing that henceforth any Iranian official that they identify
minutes, secondsor can locate uh they will kill um automatically. It doesn't need authorization. blanket authorization is
minutes, secondsgiven to kill all and any Iranians that they can see and identify. So
minutes, secondsthat's an escalation on that part. Uh the second big escalation that has
minutes, secondshappened just in this period um today effectively was that um I don't know who
minutes, secondsled this whether it seems as if it was led by uh Israel but that they are the
minutes, secondsreports indicate that it was with the green light from the US from Trump the
minutes, secondsattack on um the gas field south path pass. South Pass is this huge gas field
minuteswhich is shared with Gata. It's divided between the two, but this provides much
minutes, secondsof the um gas resources for Iran. It is a it is a serious source of energy for
minutes, secondsIran in terms of the gas. And so what we've seen in consequence uh or um in
minutes, secondsaddition to it is that now um the IRGC
minutes, secondshas warned uh five gas and uh oil
minutes, secondsfacilities throughout the Gulf that to be evacuated that all the staff must leave it immediately.
minutes, secondsUh and we've seen overnight a huge escalation in response to the assassination of um
minutes, secondsAli Larijani, the head of the National Security Council uh in um in in Tehran.
minutesApparently he was uh they managed to identifying him identify him staying uh
minutes, secondsovernight in an apartment um of his um by his daughter I think and so so uh
minutes, secondsthey're all killed and all his security detail are called killed too. So there
minutes, secondshas been a massive attack um into Israel and Hezbollah has also been pummeling
minutes, secondsthe center of Israel. Major attack across Israel um from Hezbollah. Um, of
minutes, secondscourse, you know, the censorship uh in Israel is is near total and as yet I
minutes, secondsmean the Israelis I mean very deliberately and we have evidence of this that the Israelis are careful when
minutes, secondsyou see um a film which purports to show some sort of the result of a strike by
minutes, secondsIran in Israel. what you generally see is a little bit of debris uh lying around and or perhaps a damaged car and
minutes, secondswe're told you know light or no injuries and um we know because um an Israeli
minutes, secondsjournalist has has said this uh that actually what's happening is it's deliberate the Israeli official
minutes, secondsjournalists um or broadcasting um uh journalists are going and they deliberately avoid showing any main
minutes, secondsdamage, but just focus on something trivial,
minutes, secondsa sort of damaged car or some debris um on the street as if they're acting as real journalists, as if they're giving a
minutes, secondspicture of what's happening. And it's not the picture at all. they're just deliberately filming a sort of minimal
minutes, secondssort of effect um and publishing that as if that's all all all all that happens.
minutes, secondsSo total we we don't know and Israel too I mean it's been sort of rather a magical war from that side because you
minutes, secondsknow every time it was you know no no injuries claimed or you know
minutes, secondsone Sri Lankan was injured as a result of this attack. Uh and I think this is the first day that they've actually said that two people were killed. Otherwise,
minutes, secondsthis is a war, you know, where there apparently according to the Israeli studies, they've not admitted really to
minutes, secondsto any deaths. A few injuries, people are in hospital, but no, I mean, it's a bit like America. America's doing the
minutes, secondssame thing pretty much. How many people are dead or killed? Oh, well, you won't get those from the United States from
minutes, secondsHexath. He just says, well, six people died in that refueling tanker that came down in in Iraq. And others, there are
minutes, secondsinjuries, but they're all back in in service. They're all part of they've been rehabilitated into service again.
minutes, secondsSo um the idea that no one has been killed or injured in the attacks you know across a bill where there's been
minutes, secondsheavy attacks on American um bases in a
minutes, secondsbill and in Iraq um you know people apparently have had some psychological
minutes, secondseffects but light injuries. So we don't know we don't know what's been attacked.
minutes, secondsWe do know that there have been um serious attacks with the some of the advanced weapons. The Koram Sha weapon
minutes, secondsum was clearly being used um towards Israel uh last night. But what effect
minutes, secondsthese are having, we don't know. But it's really instructive now to learn that Netanyahu is trying to uh reverse
minutes, secondshis narrative. Instead of calling for um the big war, the war that he persuaded Trump um to lead on um this war is now,
minutes, secondshe says, not going to be um pursued because it's um if you like, it's
minutes, secondsunwinable. They're not going to achieve their main objectives. They're still going to go after Iran as other
minutes, secondsadversaries. But it's going to be redefined in a new way. It's going to be
minutes, secondsredefined as uh that the that Israel has these threats, but these threats are not
minutes, secondsabsolute. They are relative. They go up and they go down. And there are other threats. and we have different threats
minutes, secondsand we will win in all of them and that is going to be our victory. But actually
minutes, secondsuh def destroying Iran and having um uh collapsing uh the the the state is no
minutes, secondslonger uh possible likely to be achieved and therefore is not on the agenda anymore. big change and it comes at a time when Trump is escalating.
minutes, secondsYeah. Yeah. Maybe you can talk about uh how how Trump is escalating here because as you said uh the sensors are just
minutes, secondsincredible. uh Israel was obviously preparing for uh what Iran was going to do and has tried to cover up all of the
minutes, secondsdamage as much as it can or as you said highlight that it's uh targeting so-called civilians rather than making
minutes, secondsuh huge damage on uh Israeli infrastructure. I'll just show here there have been some getting out. Uh
minutes, secondsthere are power outages across the uh capital or you know at least the capital as the world recognizes it. Tel Aviv. Uh
minutes, secondsthere's also been just massive images of last night of these uh missiles that uh Iran has been launching, especially
minutes, secondsthose so-called cluster missiles at Kashima which have been used for many days now. And uh it's not just in the uh
minutes, secondsagainst Israel, they've been used there have been images over Dubai of these munitions, these submunitions being released from this missile in the sky.
minutes, secondsAnd many have noted that it's it's pretty unprecedented uh that Iran is using these and uh really evading all
minutes, secondsthese air defenses. But uh to your point, Alistair, if you could react to the energy question because prices, as I
minutes, secondswas showing as you were talking, uh they continue to go up. uh seems like a big uh escalation the US is pursuing is the
minutes, secondscontinuation of trying to either seize Iran's o you know uh Car Island, cut it off from its own oil production, supply
minutes, secondsand trade. Uh but at the same time, this has massive effects on oil prices. So much so to the point that Qatar reacted
minutes, secondsto what Israel did. Um they released a statement uh uh reacting to this that I'll pull up uh opposing it because they
minutes, secondshave uh uh been affected dramatically by Iran's drone strikes and missile strikes
minutes, secondsuh now go that are going to target their energy infrastructure specifically uh although they have been doing it to a
minutes, secondsdegree even up till now. So your reaction to this, how how does this play out in the war? Because this is what a lot of the mainstream media is talking
minutes, secondsabout right now is how this is going to affect the energy question.
minutes, secondsWell, in word, it's going to affect it badly.
minutes, secondsIt was um Iran had been careful uh not to affect the not to bomb or or strike
minutes, secondsat the infrastructure, the energy infrastructure until now. It it yes, you know, um uh storage tanks and others
minutes, secondswere attacked, but their focus was much more on ports. Um and that had a different objective to it was on ports,
minutes, secondsbut it was about the Homo straight and about changing the geopolitical balance
minutes, secondsum within the region. Ports are important because particularly Bahrain port which is borne the brunt of
minutes, secondsthis was the home to the fifth fleet but it was a home to much more. It was a home to a major intelligence gathering
minutes, secondscenter, to radars, to administrative centers, um to munitions, a whole
minutes, secondsintelligence infrastructure um uh was based in Bahrain and that's been systematically destroyed. And part of this is to reestablish,
minutes, secondsif you like, Iranian um control over the whole of the Homos corridor. Um and this
minutes, secondsum and I this is deliberately to if you like flip the whole geopolitical
minutes, secondsstrategy because this was you know the Americans have controlled you know the
minutes, secondsRed Sea and Horos through the fifth fleet and the Red Sea up until the Houthies um started their work on it.
minutes, secondsBut they have controlled that and the object and um Trump has made this very clear is to have a dominance over the
minutes, secondschoke points and the sea corridors, the navigation corridors of the globe. Um
minutes, secondsfirst of all to squeeze China to squeeze China's um uh oil inputs. I mean, we
minutes, secondsthat was what Venezuela was largely about because most of Venezuelan oil uh was heading to head heading to to to
minutes, secondsChina. Um and it's also about squeezing in the other direction. It's been about squeezing Russian oil. Uh the if you
minutes, secondslike the seizure of tankers, the attacks on tankers um in the Black Sea and in
minutes, secondsthe Baltic. I mean all of this was quite clearly you know the new war was to sort
minutes, secondsof try and suppress Chinese economic development by limiting its energy
minutes, secondssupply. Uh and uh secondly it it was if you like um to stop Russian
minutes, secondsexports of oil. So they are now reestablishing and taking if you like I
minutes, secondsI because you know they even attack ports in Oman. Oman has been friendly to to to
minutes, secondsIran but because that is part of the network of American attempts to dominate um the sea um and navigation routes.
minutes, secondsSo that has been um an important element. So by and large they've left the actual infrastructure of energy
minutes, secondsuntouched until today and that was because um Trump agreed or
minutes, secondsgreenlighted according to the Israelis an attack on South P's gas field and
minutes, secondsSouth P's uh field that serves Iran. So now it's all restraint is off and um
minutes, secondsIran feels free to attack all uh oil installation. Of course it's going to
minutes, secondshave a big effect on the economy. Of course it's going to affect particularly
minutes, secondsGulf states. But finally I mean the Gulf States have to uh probably at some point
minutes, secondsdecide where they stand on this war. I mean until now they've been firmly in
minutes, secondsthe Washington um if you like ambit they have been completely you know
minutes, secondsAmericanized and Israeli dependent on for technology and for AI and um for um
minutes, secondsnow increasingly tourism uh it has been but all of that's changed I mean the business model of the Gulf is broken I
minutes, secondsmean you Some people will stay on in Dubai and other places maybe, but there's been a big exodus uh from Dubai.
minutesNot just tourists, but other people who say they're not going back because it's not. It's broken. We went there because
minutes, secondswe thought it was safe, secure, and you know, plenty of money to be earned there. Now, it's not so safe, not so
minutes, secondssecure, and not so much money going to be around. So the the Gulf states have to decide. I mean they will be dependent
minutes, secondson Iran for the their revenue from now not from the United States but Iran can
minutes, secondseither green light their vessels to pass um through the straits of Hormuz or not.
minutes, secondsAnd furthermore,
minutes, secondsa a state like UAE uh imports all its food through Hormuz as well. Uh UA uh
minutes, secondsdata exports its gas through Hormuz. All of these are going to be subject to the permission being granted um uh by Iran.
minutes, secondsUm so this is going to continue to be a a vital issue in this period and
minutes, secondsum the ability of the west to do anything about it is very very very small to being almost non-existent.
minutes, secondsThe reason being and we've heard from Trump frequently you know oh well we've sunk their navy. Well, Iran really
minutes, secondsdidn't have a navy in the proper sense of it deliberately because navies are sort of vulnerable now. They don't have
minutes, secondsbattleships and carriers or anything like that. But what they do have is real deterrence because they have first of
minutes, secondsall uh underwater um drones that move very fast, can be
minutes, secondsdirected and can be and find their own targets. very rapid. They're like sort of high-speed torpedoes. Very little,
minutes, secondsvery difficult to do anything about those. Then they have unmanned surface drones, i.e. like effectively like a speedboat packed with these explosives.
minutes, secondsUm, but that also moves very fast and can be steered so that it can zigzag around and that I think you probably
minutes, secondsseen videos has uh indeed struck um an American link tanker and it ended up in
minutes, secondsflames. Um but that's not the end of it because then they have small small surface vessels which um like speedboats
minutes, secondsbut which carry um anti-hship missiles too. And then you have beyond that uh
minutes, secondsIran has submarines that can fire uh anti-ship missiles while submerged.
minutes, secondsUm so this is this is their navy. It's not a battleship or a frigot. It is
minutes, secondsthese small very fast vessels and submarines. And you know it's all been thought through. And this is asymmetrical warfare. You don't need,
minutes, secondsthey didn't need a frigot there or anything like this. This would be pointless. But I wouldn't like to be the frigot or the tanker that tries to get
minutes, secondsthrough Hormuz. And they don't even need to use those because um actually from
minutes, secondsthe center point and they're making sure that people have to move past Kesh Island now, which is the narrowest
minutes, secondspoint. That's kilometers um from Iran, which means that the whole of that area is under fire control from back,
minutes, secondsnot from the coastal areas, but further back. Um artillery can reach all of that
minutes, secondsarea um easily. Um so that is I mean uh I I would think it's no surprise that no
minutes, secondsone has volunteered to escort a tanker through this. I mean, the the the the
minutes, secondsIranians control this uh utterly. What they're going to do with two and a half thousand Marines supposedly arriving in the next week or more, I have no idea.
minutes, secondsBut the coast, the Iranian coast uh um of Horos is
minutes, secondskilometers long, which means you've got it would be about one
minutes, secondsAmerican marine per kilometer over that coastline. Are they going to take that?
minutes, secondsAnd how are they going to suppress the artillery, let alone the the missiles that are honeycombed into that shore? As
minutes, secondsI say, you know, the Iranians have been preparing this for a very long time.
minutes, secondsThis is asymmetrical warfare and it has been thought out and it seems, you know,
minutes, secondsand Trump said, "Oh, we didn't expect this." You know, we didn't think they were going to. I didn't think they would shut Horos. Come on. I mean, the
minutes, secondsIranians have said that that they would if they were attacked, Hormos would be shut for the long term. They said that.
minutes, secondsI kept saying it. I think I probably said it on your program. That's what they would do and they've done it.
minutes, secondsAnd so what can America or Europe do about it? Uh nothing except um finally
minutes, secondsthey will have to come to terms with Iran. But the terms that Iran will impose on the United States to um get
minutes, secondsthe e economics um crisis resolved are going to be I think beyond um if you like the capacity
minutes, secondsof the United States to tolerate that degree of um retreat and humiliation. It
minutes, secondsit will be uh a lifting of all sanctions on Iran, a return of all their frozen
minutes, secondsassets. It it will include also um uh the end to all conflicts. Um it will
minutes, secondsinclude the continued enrichment of um uranium that nuclear project and it
minutes, secondswould also include I am almost certain the demand for Israeli withdrawal from
minutes, secondsGaza and an end to what is happening in um the West Bank. So that will be, I
minutes, secondsthink, quite hard for Washington to digest, but that's basically what they'd have to contemplate to to to set this right.
minutes, secondsYeah. I I I mean that's exactly what Iran is putting out there as proposals,
minutes, secondsdemands, whatever one wants to call them. But they are they are operating Iran is with the uh understanding that
minutes, secondthey are in fact uh dictating terms. Uh uh Alistister and I wanted to ask you,
minutes, secondsyou know, there was a there was a piece in the Financial Times and it talks about how with what you just described,
minutes, secondsuh this has essentially uh conclude this essentially imposed a conclusion on the world that the era of US dominance and
minutes, secondseconomic warfare is over. specifically citing something we've mentioned here on this show many times before, which is that sanctions are obviously just a tool
minutes, secondsto open up a wider war like we're seeing on Iran and that Iran has essentially flipped this against the United States and the entire world. Now,
minutes, secondsI wanted to ask you, you know, a lot of questions, Alistister, have been raised about Iran given that uh the US Sentcom,
minutes, secondsthey're putting out all kinds of data that looks very impressive. if it looks like the US is causing all kinds of
minutes, secondsdestruction that could uh change the outcome of this war. For example,
minutes, secondSentcom just said that they dropped bunker busters on the coastline and destroyed some of those anti-ship missile systems that you were describing
minutes, secondsthere. No, of course Iran says differently. Um but also they've said they've hit tens of thousands of targets. Iran says those are mostly
minutes, secondscivilian targets and Iran has not uh at least uh it hasn't been documented yet.
minutes, secondsFor example, the F-s that have been standoff striking Iran, uh Iran hasn't been able to hit them. And some have asked in this audience, Alistar, why why
minutes, secondsis it that uh the US and Israel are able to hit Iran like they have been? uh and what is the veracity and the uh validity
minutes, secondsof USIsraeli claims to this kind of dominance they say they're imposing despite the fact that uh you know you have the Financial Times talking about
minutes, secondsthis very important maybe the most important part of this war which is the economic realm uh being firmly in the hands and the grips of Iran's dictated
minutesterms that's quite a wide area that you've just outlined um but um let's start
minutes, secondsFirst of all, you know, what I've tried to get across to people repeatedly, um,
minutes, secondsfor me, this is sort of deja vu because I saw so much of this playing out when I
minutes, secondswas in Lebanon and during the war uh, in the south, the war of uh, Israel
minutes, secondsagainst Hezbollah at at the time. But first of all, the most important point to make is, you know, you can't compare,
minutes, secondsyou know, two things that are completely dislike, apples and oranges. You don't say, you know, which is better, which is, you know, tastier or something.
minutes, secondsThey're different. And Iran has been pursuing, if you like, um, an asymmetrical war. They've been planning
minutesfor it and preparing for it for years. They've thought about it deeply.
minutes, secondsThey have uh established a a system of decentralized command so that a decapitation does not stop the system.
minutes, secondsIn fact, by establishing a whole series of commands right across the whole
minutes, secondsextent of Iran with commanders with pre-desated targets to pursue in the
minutes, secondsevent of a war or the loss of a command or communications with Thran. Um they
minutes, secondshave um given them missiles. They sit on missiles capabilities. They have forces
minutes, secondsand they have the key thing is the initiative to pursue the war according to their instructions, their sealed
minutes, secondsinstructions as soon as a supreme leader is killed. Only a supreme leader has the authority to change any of those
minutes, secondsinstructions or to change the planning for the war. So when the supreme leader was killed immediately within an hour uh
minutes, secondsthe targets in the Gulf states were being hit very quickly because as I say all this is pre-organized pre-arranged
minutes, secondsso you know all the claims we hear from America about you know that they've you know killed the commander the leaders of
minutes, secondsthe of the military it's been you know decapitation Um, you know, they killed a supreme
minutes, secondsleader who was at home. I mean, it wasn't a great sort of intelligence coup. He was sitting at his desk in his home next to his office, which is part
minutes, secondsof his office. I've seen the house. It's a It's, you know, it's very identifiable. We all know where it is.
minutes, secondsIt's on the edge of a forest in North Thran. It's a very simple dwelling, a simple building. uh and he was there uh
minutes, secondwith um parts of his family all of whom were killed. Um I think it's fairly
minutes, secondsevident that in a sense and and the supreme leader did say before this he
minutes, secondssaid listen I'm I'm partly crippled I do what I have left is my dignity and
minutes, secondsthat is something you've given to me and I am ready to sacrifice that um for um
minutes, secondsIran and for its people and so I think he did deliberately um accept at martyrdom. I mean, he'd been told to
minutes, secondsmove and he said, "No, other people have not got anywhere to go, so I'm staying put." So, he was so he was killed and it
minutes, secondscreated a fast storm amongst she across the region.
minutes, secondsThe she are quite a tight community. Yes, there are differences. Some are seveners, some
minutesare s, etc. But it's created and many of the ayatalas of Marjah the people who
minutes, secondsare emulated and you go to for advice have mandated um uh that it is
minutes, secondsobligatory to um defend Iran. And they've mandated um and said they will
minutes, secondsmandate um jihad, mandatory jihad against um America and Israel. um if the
minutes, secondsattacks on the Maja um the the the leadership continue of of Shi. So um you
minutes, secondsknow this this this aspect to it has not succeeded. it's actually created. And one of the things
minutes, secondsI I said to you earlier, there was a sort of change in in the atmosphere in Israel, but there's a change in Iran.
minutes, secondsAnd what it's done is it's brought the Iranians together like they've never been since and the revolution. I
minutes, secondsmean, they are fully behind the state in this war against America. Um and you
minutes, secondsknow every night uh it's Ramadan and every night after the uh uh if the evening feast they go out and on the
minutes, secondsstreet and even if a a rocket arrives and in the crowds or by the crowds they
minutes, secondsdon't run they don't move they just stay there and they continue um to sing and
minutes, secondscall for retribution against America. So it's really brought people together and given them resilience and steadfastness.
minutes, secondsYes, that it's hurting. I mean that's what's happening as to this other aspect. This is false. And this is
minutes, secondsexactly what I saw in Lebanon in you know, the American Israeli propaganda was, "Oh, I mean, you know,
minutes, secondsthese, you know, flip-flopped, you know, footed um Hezbollah. I mean,
minutes, secondswhat chance of they against the biggest air force in the region and the most sophisticated army of Israel fighting
minutes, secondsthem? Of course, victory. I mean, they will just be obliterated."
minutes, secondsAnd um of course what happened was very different. Yes, they did obliterate they
minutes, secondsobliterated the residential area of Dah in Beirut. I went there, I saw it. I mean these were residential car blocks
minutes, secondsthat were they just knocked them down one after the other trying to create a a
minutes, secondssort of sense of despair and panic. Um and then you know and then we had all these statistics. Oh, we've done so many
minutes, secondsraids. We've dropped so many bombs. I mean, we've obliterated Hezbollah. They hadn't. Um, and what happened? It wasn't
minutes, secondsthe war of days that the Israelis said it would take to do those. It was
minutes, secondsdays until and then Israel asked for a ceasefire, demanded a ceasefire. Um, and you know what were they hitting? I went down, I saw the tunnels and everything.
minutes, secondsI went around the south. I mean, the tunnels, you know, they'd put dummies there and mockups of launchers and, you
minutes, secondsknow, they were they were striking when and what was very obvious to happen after a week. The Israelis announced
minutes, secondsthey they their data bank was over. They expended all their, you know, munitions on their data bank and they didn't have
minutes, secondsanything else. But since the war was going on, what did they do? Well, they started knocking down civilian houses
minutes, secondsand attacking houses um because we had to keep the statistics up. The war, you know, how many how many bombing raids
minutes, secondstoday, you know, general, how many raids yesterday, General, and so they've got to have something, but they're not
minutes, secondstargeted. And what we haven't seen um in Iran, we haven't seen any sign that they
minutes, secondshave been able to target the deeply buried sophisticated missiles. These ones that are dispersed right across you
minutes, secondsknow mountainous forested Iran um sides of Western Europe huge areas and these
minutes, secondsare buried deeply. There are no missile launchers available there because they are fired from silos meters down.
minutes, secondsThey come straight up through their silo tube and into the atmosphere into their
minutes, secondstarget and there's an automatic system at meters that rotates and puts a
minutes, secondsmiss next missile into place and then the missile after that. And so there are none of these mobile miss these mobile
minutes, secondsmissile launchers which do exist. But these are for the sort of more simple ballistic missile uh uh um types which
minutes, secondsare mostly used to sort of deplete air defenses either in the Gulf or or in Israel. And some of these ballistic
minutes, secondsmissiles actually most of the ballistic missiles that Israel is using at uh that Iran is using at this time uh they date
minutes, secondsfrom production uh batch. I mean they are old and they are early and
minutes, secondsthat's what they're using. They haven't really they've begun to use a few of the newer missiles. Uh but that is mainly
minutes, secondsbeing the the more sophisticated ones that we don't know what they all are going to be are being reserved um uh for
minutes, secondsthe attack on on Israel. So the whole thing is a phased process and we can detect where it is. The first phase was
minutes, secondsto destroy or sort of bring out and deplete the air defenses of the Gulf States. Secondly,
minutes, secondsto strike the American bases there, but primarily to destroy the radars to blind
minutes, secondsthe uh American um defensive system. And that's we know that's succeeded because
minutes, secondsthe Israelis are complaining bitterly that when once they had, you know, to minutes warning of an incoming missile so they could get down to the shelters.
minutes, secondsNow they're lucky to get one minute or none. And that's because the radars have gone and it's an integrated system. So
minutes, secondsit isn't giving them um the warning. It also spells why much of the if you like
minutesintercept capabilities of the Israelis um has deteriorated because without those radars and Hezbollah has been
minutes, secondsactually also destroying some of the radars in the north of of Israel. So that nearly all of them are are gone.
minutes, secondsAnd so um the American Air Force is doing this blind. And no, they do not
minutes, secondshave air dominance. Um the the they keep talking about bombing Thran as if their
minutes, secondsaircraft are flying anywhere they choose in um over Iran. But it it's not true.
minutes, secondsNearly all of these attacks are um standoff attacks from outside Iranian airspace. We saw a big performance about
minutes, secondsB's flying over um uh um and bombing um if you like the coastline of Hormuz. Um
minutes, secondsand you know the implication is they're free to fly over Iran. There's no problem. It's not true because we can
minutes, secondssee from the photographs uh that they were loading up uh with just some missiles. Now, I'm not a military
minutes, secondsperson, but I know that these essentially are glide missiles. They're not bombs, bunker buster bombs, as they
minutes, secondspretend in the press. These are long you standoff attacks that you uh drop them
minutes, secondsoutside of the airspace and then they glide in and hit hit the target. So what's the state of the war? Well, as I said to you a little time ago, you know,
minutes, secondsyou can't say I mean the point about um uh if you like the American,
minutes, secondsyou know, visually very obvious attack is how effective it's been. Well, the answer is we don't know totally how effective it's been.
minutesYou can't, you know, knocking down residential buildings in Tehran is not effective. it's actually counterproductive probably. So we don't
minutes, secondsknow how effective it is and the censorship on in um in Israel is
minutes, secondsabsolutely you know years imprisonment for photographing
minutes, secondsa missile from Iran arriving over it and years for um photographing it after
minutes, secondsthe event the effects of it. So we know very little about what it is. But that's why it was I think so important what I
minutes, secondssaid at the outset to this program that Netanyahu is saying we're not going to achieve our objectives. We're failing.
minutes, secondsWe're not going to collapse. The state isn't about to collapse. Very far from it. It's not going to collapse. We're not achieving our our our objectives.
minutes, secondsand we're going to have to think rethink this whole uh idea of the you know the the great war um and try and redefine it
minutes, secondsin in in a different in a different different way. So you know I'm sorry but that's a long answer to what sounds a
minutes, secondssimple question. Who's winning? Um uh uh I think I would say in some it's
minutes, secondsAmerica's and Israel's to lose and Iran has just got to um survive it and stand
minutes, secondsfirm and and dominate um if you like in the economic
minutes, secondssphere and also to inflict sufficient punishment
minutes, secondson Israel in its estimation means that Israel will never again decide, you
minutes, secondsknow, that it that it's a good idea to launch another war uh on uh on Iran.
minutes, secondsYeah. No, I think all of that was very important, Alistister, and it was a big question that I asked you. So, I think you covered all of the points. Uh and
minutes, secondsnow I'm glad you brought that up. Uh to end uh what you were saying there,
minutes, secondsAlistister, uh the economic sphere and dominating it. Well, the data is showing this in many ways. U since February
minutes, secondsth, it is being reported that Iran has actually exported at least million barrels of oil. Some people have told me it's definitely more than that. Uh
minutes, secondsearning at least billion or more uh despite oil prices soaring um and the straight of being closed. And this is
minutes, secondskind of the graph uh showing uh showing the price of oil. And uh what it doesn't mention here that particular
minutes, secondsreport uh is the importance of China uh China actually has uh purchased I believe most of uh Iran's exports at
minutes, secondsthis time and so I wanted to ask you given that there are reports about Russian intel helping with targeting uh
minutes, secondsthere's been a lot of reports back and forth about China's role but how have you made what have you made of Iran's response economically for itself to this
minutes, secondswar and and how it relates to this bigger shift that uh I think some have minimized which is this large multipolar
minutes, secondsshift in the world that is led by Russian China. Some have minimized it have have of course uh emphasized Israel's role in this war but it's
minutes, secondsobvious that the United States has a big uh goal here of uh destroying Iran so it can essentially destroy this global
minutes, secondsshift. But it seems like Iran in this realm has things pretty firmly under control as of right now and the US is
minutes, secondsafraid it seems to bomb Iran's exports given what that would do to the oil markets. But your reaction to this and
minutes, secondshow it fits in with this multipolar shift.
minutes, secondsUm well I I had started a little earlier saying that the domination of these
minutes, secondsseaways, these choke points and these corridors, naval corridors for energy
minutes, secondsproducts um was going to change the whole Gulf. the Gulf has got, if it wants to have revenue, if it wants to
minutes, secondsimport food, we'll have to deal with Iran and accept Iran's domination of this area. It's going to be a big
minutes, secondsgeopolitical um change for the Gulf, degrees change from for the Gulf.
minutes, secondsBut the bigger picture which you allude to is very important too because it changes a bigger geopolitical um map. Um
minutes, secondsyou said about China. China um % of the oil passing through Homos um has
minutes, secondsbeen um for delivered to to China. China is sending its tankers through Homos.
minutes, secondsthe Iranians allow their Chinese um tankers to pass um uh without incident.
minutes, secondsUm however um America keeps talking about well you know they're going to impose sanctions or or close it or
minutes, secondssomething. Um, nonetheless, that % of HMO's um exports um is actually for
minutes, secondsChina because it's such a big energy consumer only about % of its total energy consumption. So, you know, even
minutes, secondsif Hmuz was shut by the Americans taking some action, um the Chinese could live with that. It's not existential uh at
minutes, secondsall. But meanwhile what um again as part of the sort of geopolitical flipping the
minutes, secondsgeopolitical map uh Iran is saying if you want to um pass through the hormuz
minutes, secondstoday all you have to do is make it clear that it was bought and paid for
minutes, secondwith RMBI with Juan Chinese one and so that's how Pakistan managed to get its
minutes, secondstanker through India has been allowed to pass tankers through um and Pakistan
minutes, secondsmade a statement and convinced the Iranians that um their um their the
minutes, secondstheir cargo was transacted in Juan. So this is again nudging very firmly a a
minutes, secondsbigger geopolitical shift if you like for the whole of Asia and for um the
minutes, secondsworld to see that if you you know if in this new era if you want to do business and you want to do business in in energy
minutes, secondswell you have to shift and think about shifting to Juan um remember trade um if
minutes, secondsyou want to get a passage of your your your vessels through. So this is a really important element of the bigger
minutes, secondpicture of moving you know in a different in a different era and different direction for um both for
minutes, secondsChina and away from the dollar. So dollar cargos are not accepted. Dollar
minutes, secondspayments not accepted. Only Juan payments will get you through hormos. So this is an aspect that hasn't had much
minutes, secondsattention probably because you know America is absolutely determined to keep its dollar
minutes, secondshedgemony for reasons that we can see and understand but nonetheless uh are
minutes, secondsseen by the rest of the world as basically a form of coercion um to extract um concessions um from those
minutes, secondsstates either in terms of um giving money to the United States um or um else
minutes, secondsuh making investments into the United States in terms of manufacturing industries.
minutes, secondsYeah, know those are great points and uh you know as we as we head to the end here, Alistister, I just wanted to ask uh we were talking about the Gulf States
minutes, secondsbefore and you were talking about them being firmly in the US camp. It seems that the longer this war goes on though
minutes, secondsthat given that there's this shift happening in the world given that we've seen over the years uh a lot of hedging especially with Saudi Arabia um
minutes, secondsnormalizing with Iran etc. this war is kind of exposed I think that a lot of these Gulf states really don't have sovereignty and uh they are following US
minutes, secondsdictats uh despite the massive damage that Iran has done to US assets there and therefore uh the economies of these
minutes, secondsGulf states. What do you make of the future of the region now that uh you
minutes, secondsknow as this thing goes on it's obviously going to have massive economic uh impacts on on these states and uh do
minutes, secondyou foresee that that could then create a rupture? I'm even thinking, will they try to come together like they supposedly did before the strike started
minutes, secondsand try to really yank on uh Trump's uh coattails and say, "Hey, can uh can you stop this thing? Can you actually just
minutes, secondsmake a deal so we it doesn't lead to our ruination?" What do you make of this?
minutes, secondsBecause I I'm seeing a very bleak future for the likes of the UAE,
minutes, secondseven Saudi Arabia, Qatar. I mean, Qatar I don't think is is is pumping gas right now. I mean, it's a really bleak situation. So what's your uh what's your thoughts on this?
minutes, secondsYou didn't mention Bahrain, but Bahrain is in in a process of a color revolution, an outpost. It's, as you
minutes, secondsknow, to % she uh ruled by a Sunni monarch and a defense force that protects him, which is all Sunni. And
minutes, secondsthere's been um huge protests and uprising. I think what is shaking the
minutes, secondthe Gulf um is the sort of idea that you know that this could ignite if you like
minutes, secondsa different but a new sort of Arab spring because of you know they feel a
minutes, secondslack of legitimacy um in on the ground and so they are very concerned about it
minutes, secondsbut they have been so I think thorough thoroughly embedded into the western,
minutes, secondsyou know, economic AI investment paradigm that it's going to be hard for them to make a a
minutes, secondstransition or to get out of it. And whether I, you know, it's quite conceivable that we'll see um a very
minutes, secondsdifferent um geography in the future in in the Gulf uh region. Um maybe some states will disappear or change.
minutesI'm not going to predict how or what. I can't. But I think there's going to be a a a massive uh reaction to this. I mean,
minutes, secondsyou know, the whole lifestyle.
minutes, secondsI remember going to see the the head of um um the Amir of Gata once and um while
minutes, secondswe were waiting for the appointment, I sitting in his chief of staff's office and you know it was bizarre because it
minutes, secondswas like sort of being on Wall Street. I mean all the Bloomberg terminals tracking you know every movement you
minutes, secondsknow red green what's going up where's energy what stocks are rising I mean it was like a hedge fund and many of them
minutes, secondshave actually become sort of semi-hedge funds um and is it possible to continue in that sort of mode I I don't know I
minutes, secondsthink it quite doubtful um but it's going to as I say they have got existential
minutes, secondsum issue facing them. Where do they stand in this war now? Are they going to stand uh with the United States as
minutes, secondsUnited States escalates further against Iran or will they decide um that if they
minutes, secondswant to continue to trade and earn revenue um that they have to go and talk about a new relationship with Iran?
minutes, secondsThat's for us to wait and see.
minutes, secondsAnd then finally, my last question to you, Alistister, is how since uh I believe this is the first time we've talked since the uh February th uh uh
minutes, secondsbeginning of this uh massive kinetic escalation by the US and Israel began.
minutes, secondsUm how have you seen this affecting the other major flash points in the world,
minutes, secondsthe Ukraines, the of course the buildup toward China? How how has this war altered uh these uh I guess if you will
hour, secondareas of interest for uh the US empire and of course uh those it drags along with it.
hour, secondsIt depends a little bit on how this turns out. Um but it is already having a
hour, secondsa a really significant effect. I mean I think first of all uh the sense that I
hour, secondsmean you know that the word of the America of uh uh the American leadership
hour, secondsis not to be believed. Uh that you know after three deceptions in a row towards
hour, secondsIran um with decapitations providing for decapitations and that there were more
hour, secondsthan that. Um the lessons are about the dangers to one's own leadership. uh the
hour, secondsdangers of trying to do um negotiations uh with the United States. But more than
hour, minutethat is I think the effect of of this two things of this of this language um
hour, minute, secondsand also the effect um of uh you know that now increasingly people um as you
hour, minute, secondsknow the new truth social comes out uh overnight around the world people are laughing
hour, minute, secondslaughing at them um increasingly because sometimes they're quite absurd and what they say is quite absurd. So I think
hour, minute, secondsthere's that sense too. But also I think the thing that is quite striking I mean uh the the language is really I mean uh
hour, minute, secondsyou know talks about the Iranians as being evil people who cut the heads off
hour, minute, secondsbabies and cut women in half and that they are you know um people um I mean
hour, minutesthey you know that I mean this polarization that is implicit Is it in this language suggests that you know
hour, minutes, secondsthat you're talking about um a sort of such an extreme dichotomy of evil and uh
hour, minutes, secondssubhuman people on the one hand um that um obliteration um becomes really the only the only
hour, minutes, secondsoutcome and I think this is a bigger issue and we didn't touch on it but this
hour, minutes, secondsis something that is worrying a great number of Americans. I mean also about
hour, minutes, secondswhere do we stand in in this? I mean are we in favor of obliterations
hour, minutes, secondsor or or are we not and is it really this war was it really in America's interest greater interest of Americans?
hour, minutes, secondIf not who who was behind it? who controlled it, what was the um what was
hour, minutes, secondsthe mechanism, who's in charge and what interests were they pursuing.
hour, minutes, secondsSo this is a debate that is opened and I think is going to come to the forefront and this is going to have big impact on
hour, minutes, secondsthe elections. It's going to already having an impact. Um is Trump going to be able to recover? Are the Republican
hour, minutes, secondsparty going to be able to recover um from this? I think that's quite quite doubtful that the Republicans can can
hour, minutes, secondscan um recover. I listened to a a an an American politician who was at their the
hour, minutes, secondsRepublican meeting, Dural Club in um I think it's in Florida, uh one of Trump's
hour, minutes, secondsgolf clubs, and they were having a a meeting to discuss where things are going in lead up to the midterms. And he
hour, minutes, secondssaid, "Listen, I think most of them know that they're going to be drowned. uh some may hope to sort of stay afloat
hour, minutes, secondstill but most of them think they're going to get ground in the midterms. So
hour, minutes, secondsI think the unexpected element perhaps of this is I think it's going to induce
hour, minutes, secondsan introspection in the United States about you know what
hour, minutes, secondsis this if you like what is this unseen if you like a power structure uh that
hour, minutes, secondstakes us unairringly to war after war when it's clearly against our interests as expressed in the polls and in
hour, minutes, secondseverything that we do not want another war in the Middle East. So what is the power structure and who's behind it and
hour, minutes, secondswhat is their ultimate interests in this in the structure? We've had war going from Afghanistan, Iraq and Libya, all of
hour, minutes, secondsthese wars. I mean was this all in American interest? is the financial benefits that seem to come
hour, minutes, secondsout of these wars in the general interests of Americans. I think this is they're demanding that, you know, we
hour, minutes, secondshave to try and get to the bottom of this and and we have to discuss it
hour, minutes, secondsamongst ourselves and decide where we stand.
hour, minutes, secondsYeah, I think that's a great place uh to close, Alistar. I want to make sure that everybody knows to uh subscribe and follow uh conflicts forum substack which
hour, minutes, secondsis in the video description below. You can hit the like button too so more people know about uh both this conversation that we just had with
hour, minutes, secondsAlistair as well as the conflict for substack. You hit the and in addition to hitting the like button, there's many places to support the channel too in the
hour, minutes, secondsvideo description below. Patreon substack and much more. But Alistair uh any final words before we head out of here to the audience?
hour, minutes, secondsUh not really no nothing further. No from from what I said I mean many things
hour, minutes, secondsare going to change I believe in this period. It's an inflection point uh for America as much as it is for the Middle
hour, minutes, secondsEast and for China and Russia. Of course all sorts of messages. I mean, you can
hour, minutes, secondsimagine Russians are watching what's happened with Iran in their war as they continue their own war.
hour, minutes, secondsYeah, definitely. Well, sir, we'll have to keep in touch. We're going to leave here together. We'll be in touch and we will be back again with more updates uh
hour, minutes, secondshere on the show. Until next time, I'll be on p.m. Eastern time tomorrow. I will announce uh all of that very soon.
hour, minutes, secondsHit the like button before you go and I will see you all again tomorrow. Bye-bye.

[admin]

Seyed M. Marandi: U.S. Attacked World's Largest Gas Field & Iran Declares Economic War
Glenn Diesen
Mar 18, 2026

Seyed Mohammad Marandi argues that Iran has declared economic war after the US and Israel attacked South Pars, the world's largest gas field. Marandi is a professor at Tehran University and a former advisor to Iran's Nuclear Negotiation Team.



Transcript

[Glenn Diesen] Welcome back. We are joined today by Seyed M. Marandi, a professor at Tehran University and a former adviser to Iran's nuclear negotiation team, to discuss this new round of very dramatic escalations occurring in the war against Iran. So, thank you very much for coming back on.

[Seyed M. Marandi] Thank you, Glenn. It's always a great pleasure being on your show.

[Glenn Diesen] Well, as I as I said, there seems to be some very powerful round of escalation. First, we heard about this attack on the Busher uh nuclear power plant. Uh that is it didn't hit the the nuclear reactor, but uh well, close enough to create some concern about what could happen in such an attack in terms of nuclear contamination. We've seen further assassinations of Iranian leaders and uh also of course uh the most recent only yeah coming breaking news now over the past two hours it seems this attack on this um south Paris in Thran which is uh the largest natural gas field in the world. Uh I mean I guess Iran has many ways of retaliating. How are you assessing this situation and where do you see this heading? Well, there are a number of things. Uh one is that Iran has a very strong chokeold on Trump and the Trump regime and that is of course the straight of Hormos and the vulnerability of Saudi Arabia even as it exports uh oil uh through the Red Sea. Iran can block that with missiles and drones and it is doing that with regards to the Emirates and that portion of oil that it exports from outside the Persian Gulf. So this is a very difficult situation for Trump, excuse me. And as he admitted, he didn't think or his administration didn't think. It's not clear to me uh where the fault exactly lies. uh they didn't think that Iran was going to attack US assets in the Persian Gulf region or shut the trade of Hormos which I find extraordinary because you and I and many others I think knew quite well that such a thing would happen. We've been discussing this together for maybe a couple of years. So when this happened, Trump of course uh made many bold threats, he saw that they weren't working and he despite saying that Iran was obliterated again he called for the entire world to help him open the trade of hormones and everyone said no. So obviously Iran hasn't been obliterated. Iran's navy is almost the entire navy that is used for wartime is in tunnels and they will uh enter the Persian Gulf, the Gulf of Oman and the Indian Ocean when the time comes. their speedboats with missiles and Iran's uh missile capabilities and drone capabilities are are endless. They haven't struck any of the underground bases. They've uh failed to do anything about Iran's production capabilities. So Trump is in a very difficult place. On the other hand, the Israeli regime wants escalation and uh from what I'm hearing in the operational control has shifted from the United States to the Israeli regime. And so it is the leading the war and they are the ones who chose the targets and the United States agreed to cooperate with it to strike these targets. So it may not make a huge difference, but it is significant. And um I think the Israeli regime probably and the United States maybe uh want to escalate to see how far Iran will go. That's one possibility. I think they'll soon find out find out that Iran is willing to go to the very end and it will fight to the finish. So this experiment is a foolish one. Some believe that the Israeli regime wants the total destruction of oil and gas assets in the Persian Gulf region and it's possible that Trump will go along with it. In any case, Iran is going to go uh up the escalation ladder if that is what the US Israeli coalition does. So I think ultimately the big issue is that the United States is stuck with the trade of Hormos and Iran really holds all the cards. Now the Israelis are assassinating people. They may continue to do so or have successes, but it's not going to change anything. Uh the Iranians have a very sophisticated constitution. They have a very sophisticated state. They have many experts and uh people who are acquainted well acquainted with uh matters of state. So if one person is martyed, someone else will replace him. It's a loss without a doubt. Dr. Li Jani I've never worked in government but uh um I encouraged him to go to China and ultimately went when he went he asked me to go with him and when he came back he asked me to take care of the China dossier for him. Uh so for a couple of years until he left parliament uh he was the speaker of parliament of course I was in charge of the dossier on his behalf as a volunteer. I didn't receive any uh salary for this. U but um he was an excellent man, very smart, very dedicated, very a very moral person and uh it's a major loss and I'm I'm I was very fond of him. He was a very polite, highly educated, but everyone can be replaced with someone else. And martyrdom itself boosts the morale of society. It awakens the society further. as we saw today on the streets during his funeral and the funeral of the victims of the US attack on Iran's naval ship that was unarmed and was participating in a naval ceremony in India. Uh so I don't see any uccess of major substance uh because obviously I you can't say an assassination is not an a success but it's not going to achieve the results that they're seeking and in a way it's actually going to have the reverse effect as we saw with the martrdom of it it really mobilized the nation in a way which I have never seen even during the s I have witnessed things in tan on personally and I have seen images and videos that I have never seen before anywhere. People on the streets, huge crowds. I was there on Friday and then the USI-Israeli coalition bomb the people demonstrating on the streets and murder a person. And you don't even hear about in the hear about it in the Western media, but no one ran away. You may have seen I'm I'm sure you've seen images of it and many of your viewers may I'm sure have but I it's on my Twitter account. So people are steadfast and people have been mobilized and the United States has they they had a plan to uh carry out terror attacks last night and riots as they did a couple of months ago. It failed completely. people are on the streets throughout Tehran and throughout the country and they couldn't do anything. So on the whole I think the war is going very well for Iran. It's painful. They murdered many people, school children. They bombed hospitals today. They bombed key infrastructure. This is this is not something uh none of this is makes us happy. It's painful. Uh when they murdered Dr. large journey. They murdered all the neighbors of that in that apartment block. But the United States and Israeli regime have failed so far. Yeah. Well, what is he being um likely retaliation? because I watched a a spokesperson recently, well minutes ago or so uh given talk about how the energy infrastructure of those who participate in this will now I think he said burn to ashes. But uh we also see now some incoming strikes on the capital of Saudi Arabia. But I was also curious um what is the likelihood that Yemen could actually be be activated in terms of closing down the Red Sea as a response to this escalation because there's an important straighter of course that is the uh Babel Mandeb if I'm not slaughtering that name right and um yeah also narrow straight which can be used to sever access to the Red Sea. This is quite you know a critical uh maritime corridor as well because with the straight over moose disconnected this is essentially the only access to Saudi Arabia then all on this western coast. So how do you how do you do you see this as a possibility or how or what kind of a retaliations again I know the government doesn't tell you what they're going to do but what kind of retaliations do you think are realistic here? Well, the government has said that they will strike uh oil and gas facilities in the Emirates and Qatar and Saudi Arabia. I think by the time your viewers see this video, probably that retaliation will have taken place. We already hear that there was a strike on Qatar and on Saudi Arabia. Apparently this the strikes on Saudi Arabia targeted uh jet fuel depots for the US air force because the Saudis are deeply involved in this and uh it is increasingly becoming clear that the Saudis are encouraging the Americans to carry out these strikes against Iran. In the case of Yemen, they have said that they will enter the war and uh we'll have to see when that happens. Obviously it things depend on the escalation matter. Uh Iraq in in Iraq the resistance is striking at US assets but um it could do much more and the same is true with Iran. Iran can strike much harder. But Iran is moving up the escalation ladder based on US uh Israeli or what I would call the Epstein coalition's actions. So so for example today when they struck Iran's infrastructure the gas installations that was something that Iran had to respond to. Iran doesn't want to create a global economic meltdown. this war was imposed on Iran and as we saw Joe Kent uh resign and basically say what we've been saying all along that Iran was no threat and that it was the Israeli regime and the Zionist lobby that pushed the United States to war a war that's not in US interest at all uh so Iran is responding to aggression and it has shut the straight of hormones to put pressure on the United and its proxies and its allies. But if the United States moves to to destroy Iranian key installations, then Iran will do the same and then we will go definitely we will move to crisis mode with regards to the global economy because later on if there is an end in hostilities in Iran, Iran's demands demands are met. If there's no oil or gas uh be- because of the damage or destruction of the installations and if there are no tankers then what's the use. So the global economic crisis will be permanent or these it will last for many years that will be a global economic depression. So the United States began this aggression. The US regime, the Trump regime, the Israeli regime and its proxies in the region are all they are all complicit. The Iranians shut the trade of Hormos to put pressure. But if the United States starts attacking Iranian key installations, key in key infrastructure or the Israeli regime, it doesn't make a difference to us. Iran will respond in kind. And since these Arab regimes are host US bases and allow them to use their airspace and allow them to use their air bases and allow them to use their territory to fire missiles towards Iran like high missiles, they have no reason to complain whatsoever. Well, we see uh this US troops which have been sent to the region and some speak of putting boots on the ground. I'm not sure if that it's on Iranian soil or is it intended to open up the straight of Hermoose or you know is also not unrealistic uh that it could be used to invade Yemen perhaps to make sure that uh this straight uh well keeping the Red Sea accessible uh uh is kept open. Uh how are you assessing this? Do you think the that the US could go to this extent uh to I guess go in with uh troops uh on the ground? Well, Iraq and Yemen are not small countries with small populations. And Yemen today is much more powerful than it was a year ago when the United States waged the war against it and lost after weeks. And by the way, let's remember that during the seven-year long minutesgenocidal war carried out by the Saudis and the Emiratis against Yemen with the support of the entire region except for Iran in Turkey and and Katar also supported the genocide in Yemen until the Saudis and the Amiratis turned against turned against Katad and then the Eron and Katar tilted away from them. But the entire west and the region were all supporting the genocide in Yemen. And after years, it failed. What brought the Saudis to accept the ceasefire? When Yemen targeted Saudi oil installations and oil exports. So if the if Yemen could do that four years ago, I think it was, it could do it now. can end the Saudi oil exports that go to the Red Sea and it can also shut the Red Sea. So Yemen has these cap capabilities and I'm sure it's missile and drone capabilities are more of a threat today than they were back then to the US Navy. I don't see a a scenario where the United States can its troops a few I don't know troops can make any real difference. And this and it's even more implausible with regards to Iran. But let's say hypothetically that the Americans somehow with this small group takes the straight of homos. They've already under estimated Iran's missile and drone capabilities obviously and they say they keep saying they've destroyed them all and Iran keeps firing missiles and drones. But let's say that they take the stray of hormones and that the Iranian armed forces which have been preparing for such a scenario for years, they fail to dislodge them. What difference is it going to make? Ships have to come into the Persian Gulf. Iran, if anyone looks at the map, Iran owns one half of the Persian Gulf. They could strike missiles at ships from anywhere and then missiles that Iran fires are not fired from the coast. They're fired hundreds of kilometers in inside Iran. So they can take the straight of Hormos and Iran can still destroy whatever it wants, whether it's ships or whether it's installations as we're seeing right now. Or if they want to go all the way to the north of the Persian Gulf and take Park Island, it's a flat island. Then the Iranians can hammer them on that flat piece of land and they'll take large casualties, but still they're not going to open the straight of hormones for trade. There won't be any oil. The only thing that will happen is that through escalation, you're going to have more tankers destroyed and more oil and gas installations destroyed. And so ultimately when this ends and it will end at some point but with failure on be by the you know US failure and Israeli failure then there won't be the oil that they're seeking to bring back to the market and every day that goes by Glenn you have what million barrels a day that are not being sent to the market. So the the shortage is growing by the hour and they can manipulate the market for a few days or a couple of weeks, but then it's going to hit them very hard. And of course, it's not just oil, it's gas. And of course, it's not just gas, it's fertilizer and prochemicals. And it's imports and exports because the these Arab family dictatorships are are huge consumer markets. And the United States and the Europeans have huge assets in this region, trillions of dollars. They've invested all sorts of money in these consumer societies. The losses to the United States to the rise in the price of energy, the shortage of energy or fertilizer, the the the destruction of their assets, a lot of the weapons that the US sells, they sell it to these countries and they these countries don't even know how to use them because they don't even have competent military forces. that doesn't there's only like people how are they going to use their all those jets that they bought those jets jets are basically bribes and also the kickbacks and the commissions by western senators and their business partners and the royal family and all that and the same is true with other countries so the losses to the United States are multi-dimensional uh and of course the petro dollar takes a hit So, as things stand, I don't see the United States finding a way out. They're only digging themselves further in the hole. And the world is going to blame them. I mean, what Joe Kent says is recognized across the world. So, people are going to blame blame Zionism and Trump for for the misery that they are beginning to impose on the international community. Yeah. the resignation letter of um Joe Kent. It's been read tens of millions of times apparently online now. So it's uh um yeah it's quite extraordinary that essentially the the second in commander uh would be the one who resigns and put this out there. So it does show that um the narrative of this war is well also not going well. Uh but I think what you referred as panic is probably correct because this began. It looked like Trump genuinely thought this would be uh another Venezuela quick in and out. attack and by the end of the weekend before the stock markets open then have your uh you know your victory speech uh prepared but uh but the government didn't fall and the army didn't collapse and so I I can there seems to be uncertainty in terms of what what other cards can be played and uh we'll see reports that Trump was quite upset that uh there are no military ways to open up the straight over moose but it does seem that uh as one often us in this kind of situation that is to uh prepare a proxy to fight on your behalf that this has been attempted but the Gulf states appear to have resisted so far at least that is they don't want to go get into a direct fight with Iran Azarban looked for a moment like it could take the more direct role but then they turned the Kurds which were armed by the CIA then also apparently got very concerned I'm not sure if they were ever ready to go or if they just you know didn't want bet on the losing horse. But uh but even the allies of the US, NATO and in East Asia, they didn't want to join in on this mission to I'm not sure how they would do it, but the yeah the convoy to try to open up the straight of moose. So but the last efforts we see now is uh some we read uh in the American media some pressure on Syria to enter Lebanon that is to take you know in this chaos to assist Israelis that is Jolani's government uh to help Israel to essentially get rid of Hezbollah in Lebanon. uh how do you how how do you see this scenario or the likelihood of this being initiated and even succeeding then?

[Seyed M. Marandi] Well, first Glenn I want to say something, and then there are a number of things we have to unpack here. One is that the people in the west, in the mainstream media, there are always two types. One says, "Let's go and take them out." And the other says, "They're bad, but this is not a good idea." In my opinion, they're all the same. And the reason why I say this is that, I won't name names, but one of your guests who came on a few days ago, he was that sort of person. He said something dishonest about Masa. He said that she was murdered. There's no evidence of that. The footage is out. The medical report clearly indicates that she had a condition. She was not beaten. There's no evidence of that. But they keep saying that Iran killed tens of thousands of people. These are all lies. And those people who repeat those lies are making the case for war. And so they're complicit in war, and they have blood on their hands. Every single one of them. And it's unforgivable. I'm glad that you invite all sorts of people. I'm just trying to make this point, because I want people to know that those in the United States, in the mainstream -- it's the same with Maduro. Those who say Maduro is a bad guy, but no, don't take him out, they have blood on their hands, because instead of saying, "NO, WE ARE THE BAD GUYS for bombing boats in the Caribbean, WE ARE THE BAD GUYS for murdering people and kidnapping the president." Instead, yhey say, "Yes, he's a bad guy." NO, YOU'RE THE BAD GUYS. And so these people who repeat these lies, I think they just want to be relevant in the mainstream, or some of these Leftists, European leftists -- in the global south, they're not like that at all-- but in Europe, they're very hostile towards Iran. They have this old, irrational hatred, because the only revolutionary movement for some of these people can be them. And so obviously the Islamic revolution of Iran is "medieval, and backward, and evil, and the mullas, you know, they're crazy, and they suppress women," and all that nonsense that we've been hearing for years. But ever since the beginning of the war, we've seen millions of people on the streets, every night. As we speak, Glenn, there are huge crowds in Tehran. Huge crowds across the city. And we all saw the footage of men and women standing their ground under missiles [blowing up right behind them]. That's not a people that hate the regime. That's not a people willing to die under air strikes, who stand their ground. That's not a people who believe that Masa amini was battered to death, and that the mullah regime is killing women all the time, and that they're slaughtering tens of thousands of people. Iranians know better what goes on in their country than these people who live in Europe, and the United States, and basically lie about Iran because it serves their interest.

But in any case, the point I'm making is that for me, those who say, "Maduro is evil, the Cuban regime is evil, but let's not do this," NO. THEY ARE EVIL. And so are their governments. And if they have intellectual honesty, they'll point the finger at their own governments and leave Cuba alone, leave Venezuela alone, leave Hezbollah alone, leave Iran alone. It's none of their business.

But to get back to the question, I think that what we are witnessing is a completely new situation. And that is that for the first time the Empire has failed, not only at regime change, it's failed to even take a country, because we've always always been told that the United States lost the war in in Iraq; it lost the war in Afghanistan; it lost the war in Vietnam. But in the case of Iran, it hasn't even been able to take and occupy parts of the country. After weeks of battle, and with a huge coalition, the whole collective west is behind it, and all these regional regimes are with them too. Azerbaijan, the Persian Gulf, Turkey under Erdogan, Awax jets fly over Turkish airspace to gather intelligence against Iran, and US bases as well, they're all working against Iran. But they have failed. Why? Because the Iranian people support the Islamic Republic of Iran today, yesterday, two weeks ago, and two months ago. Today, they're more mobilized. They're more united, and that small minority that was on the streets rioting, who the West glorifies, and exaggerates, and lies about, a lot of them have changed their positions, because they now see that the West, which they thought was democratic and who they supported, you know, basically they're kids. They were like first year university students, second year university students, like high school kids. But now they see that they're bombing schools, and bombing hospitals, and their whole world view has been shattered. I'm not saying all of them, but many of them them are on the streets like everyone else, and I have my own anecdotal examples of them. So that's why the Republic of Azarbaijan would never dare attack Iran. I mean, look at the images of people on the streets in Tabriz, in Aril, in Urum, in Marand, another Azeri city. They would take over the Republic of Azarbaijan in a week. The Iranians would overthrow the regime. And the same is true with these Kurdish terrorist groups. Because the Iranians have warned the semi-autonomous government in Erbil, the Kurdish government in northern Iraq, that if they allow these people, these terrorists, because that's what these these groups are, to attack us on behalf of their masters, the CIA and MOSSAD, they're owned by Western and Israeli intelligence agencies, then we will destroy you, and so will the Iraqi resistance, and then there will no longer be a autonomous Kurdish government in northern Iraq. So they stood back down. _____, if he tries to do anything against Lebanon, first of all he's shown his true colors to everyone, unless they're utterly ignorant sectarian people, who are wahhabi, and salafi types, who close their eyes to truth and just support these terrorists, even though they know that the Americans were controlling them, and the Israelis were allied to them.

Everyone knows who [Abu Mohammed] al-Golani is now. He's a US asset. If he attacks Lebanon, Iraqi resistance will move into Syria, and Iran will destroy him and his commanders with drones and missiles. We don't need our long range drones to do drone and missile strikes on Israel with. We can do it with shorter range missiles and drones, different classes of missiles and drones, just like what we're doing in the Persian Gulf. So I don't think he's going to do that either. So ultimately the United States has failed to use terrorists inside Iran. Maybe they try something in the days and weeks ahead, but they will fail. Even if one person is killed, they'll make a big deal about it, and the Western media will say all sorts of nonsense, Fox News, and all that, but they'll fail. And the same is true in all these other arenas that we've been talking about.

So the United States is stuck. So all they can do is assassinate. Which just creates more determination. That makes our Iranian leaders more angry, and adamant that we must defeat the enemy. Because [the Iranian leaders] are friends. These are national figures. And when they kill them, people will seek revenge.

I just posted a woman who was struck by a missile nearby, and was in panic, and then another missile hit her. You know, people see these these clips in Iran, and their rage grows, their anger grows.

The other day I was at the funeral, the huge crowd for Dr. Liy and the naval officers. And I'm not a government official. I'm just at the University. But people see me on online and rarely I'm on Iranian television, and they come up to me and say, "You know, the leaders should protect themselves more." They say they're too courageous.

You saw on Friday at the national FUQs day, the rally for supporting Palestine, the Dr. Gilani was on the streets, and the president was on the streets. The head of the judiciary, the head the head of the judiciary, was doing an interview when a missile hit. He didn't even blink. The foreign minister was there, and so on. And of course the US secretary of war called them all "rats hiding in their holes." But people saw the reality. They know who the real cowards are.

So people were telling me, you know, they thought I have access or could tell them to not come out on the streets, tell them not to come to the funeral. They were demanding that the leaders not attend the funeral. Literally. Glenn, literally, hundreds of people said this in one way or another. I was just walking through the crowds, and people were stopping me the whole time.

So this is a nation that's united. So they can assassinate, but it's not going to help. It's going to make things worse for them. They can bomb Iranian infrastructure, critical infrastructure, but Iran is going to hit back, and that's only going to complicate matters further. Because as I said, if the United States meets Iran's demands, then the Strait of Hormuz can be opened. And after a period of time, the flow of oil and gas, and everything else, petrochemicals, can go back to normal. But if they destroy the key infrastructure in Iran, then Iran is going to destroy key infrastructures in those regimes where the Americans have their bases, and the problem is going to become very long term. So that's not a solution either.

So Trump is stuck in a hole, and Netanyahu put him there. The Zionist put him there. The Zionist Netanyahu, and the Epstein class, has created a global crisis.

[Glenn Diesen] Well, it's interesting what you said about the political Left, and all this. I made that point earlier as well, and not here, but that after the cold war, especially, you saw neoconservatives on the Right who aspire for security through hegemony, or Empire, they more or less engaged in this unholy alliance with the political Left as well, under the idea that this is a liberal hegemony, that by dominating, it will elevate the role of democracy and human rights around the world. So all conflicts are now just framed as humanitarian. And then suddenly you see these Leftists advocating for peace on the Left, and saying they can't support these authoritarians. So this is why Maduro, the Russians, Iran, they're all regimes who are delegitimized, and they can never be supported. But, as you suggest, once these leaders are denounced, then they already essentially, indirectly, made the case for war. And even when you sell people on the Left that it's about liberating women, then suddenly, they're on board with war. You also see this with the Ukraine war on the political Left, the very people who traditionally are the first ones to take up the cause for peace. They're not talking about diplomacy. They're not talking about dialogue, mutual understanding, or peace. They're talking about how do we send more weapons? How do we close down the Opponent's media. This is essentially what they're talking about. So the whole concept of peace has been perverted to a large extent. I like Jeffrey Sachs for this reason. He went to speak at the UN Security Council, and he opened up -- this was before the attack on Venezuela -- he opened up and said, "I'm not here to discuss the character of the Venezuelan government. That's beside the point. We're talking about what the US is planning to do. So just put that whole thing aside. Because once you say you support this, and condemn that, then you make the point for war." He just swept this whole thing aside.  

But yeah, I wanted to ask about something you said. You mentioned that if the US meet the demands of Iran, and I did see the Iranian foreign minister who said that Iran does not want a ceasefire, but wants a political settlement, a peace settlement, peace is not the same as a ceasefire. And again we heard similar arguments coming from Russia as well. That a ceasefire's temporary pause allows the enemy to regroup, replenish, and get back to the fighting, but a peace settlement would address the underlying causes, and actually find a solution. So what is the solution? What what are the demands that America must meet? I mean, what is the opening position of Iran versus where do you see possible compromises coming in?

[Seyed M. Marandi] Well, first I was really laughing inside thinking about these people who talk about Iran, or Venezuela, and ask "Do you support the war?" AFor the first five minutes they have to badmouth Iran and say, "Well, Iran is really evil. They're really bad people. They're horrible. I don't condone anything, but I I don't support war, or Maduro being captured." When I look at Iran, then look at the west, I mean, it's Iran that's opposing genocide, and the West that supports the genocide. And the regional countries they're all US proxies. But I think that this is not just going to be about Iran. Iran has said that its allies in the region have to be included in any cessation of hostilities. Why do we oppose a ceasefire? Just as you said, we've done this before. We had a ceasefire, and they regrouped, and attacked us again. We were negotiating, they attacked us. We negotiated again, and they attacked us again. And doing a deal with Americans, especially under Trump, is just meaningless. Nothing that he says means anything. A piece of paper that he signs is just a worthless piece of paper. So the facts on the ground have to change. So first of all, it has to include Iran's allies across the region.

Second of all, the facts on the ground have to change. What do I mean by that? It means that the Persian Gulf must be structured. The security of the Persian Gulf must be structured in a way that Iran no longer feels threatened by the United States. These countries cannot be used as platforms to attack Iran! And if the Israeli regime attacks Iran, there have to be consequences. So there has to be change on the ground. Pieces of paper are worthless.  

And then there's the issue of reparations. Iran will demand reparations, and in the future, the security of the Persian Gulf will be different from the past. These Arab family dictatorships, if they last, they will have to deal with a new reality. And they will be severely weakened. They're already severely weakened. The middle east will never again be the Emirates that it was three weeks ago. That's gone. All those billionaires, they're not coming back, which is a good thing. I mean, if there were no billionaires, you know. Anyway, they won't be coming back. And the same is true with the rest of these tiny regimes in the region. So Iran is here to stay. And after almost 3 weeks, we've seen that the Americans are incapable of defeating Iran, and ultimately, Iran is prepared for a very, very long war. And as we speak, Iran is producing more missiles. I don't know if it's producing more drones, because it doesn't even have space for drones. All of its underground bases are full. They are more than prepared to go on for years. This is not a war that the United States can win. We fought Saddam Hussein for eight years ,and people in Iran are now prepared.

Before the war, everyone was concerned what would happen. Now that there's war, people say, "Let's do it. Let's finish it. Let's defeat them. We have to get this done." Everyone understands that a ceasefire is of no use. People on the streets know this because this didn't happen years ago. This was months ago. And both were unprovoked. In other words, people in Iran, just like people across the world, recognize that in the United States, it is Western mainstream media, especially Fox News, and Newsmax, whatever -- I just did an interview with one who was crazy -- but anyway, unless someone watches that sort of nonsense, everyone knows that negotiating with Trump is is useless. So the facts on the ground will have to change, so that Iran feels, and its allies feel, secure in the years ahead. The Israeli regime can't just bomb Lebanon whenever it wants to, despite having a ceasefire. They can't just kill people, Gazans, Palestinians in Gaza, every day, just because they feel like it. So the facts on the ground have to be inclusive.

And there have to be reparations. There may be other issues, and of course they can negotiate these issues in different ways, but ultimately Iran is not going to accept a situation where it can be attacked again in a few months.

[Glenn Diesen] Yeah, I just had a thought about what you said about the obligatory condemnation of the opponent, because I've been in many interviews and debates, and it almost always starts with the same question, which is, "Do you condemn Putin; do you condemn Iran; do you condemn Hamas; do you condemn Maduro; you know, this opening question, it's very clever though, because if one hesitates, then there's a false dichotomy. Either you align yourself with the moral posturing of the person doing the interview, or you're with the other side. And then if you fail to say yes to this opening question, which allows you through the gate as being, you know, legitimate, and now we can listen to you, if you fail to do this, then you're morally suspect. You're already compromised. You're now a Putinist, or a Ayatollah apologist, or whatever words one would use. Again, it's clever, because it forces people to be weeded out, so now we can't listen to you. Or you have to buy into the premise, and say essentially which side is the goody, and which is the baddie, who is legitimate, who is illegitimate, and also at times it indicates when the conflict starts. So no one would start an interview asking me, "Do you condemn the past decades of how the Israelis have treated the Palestinians; do you condemn US bombing of Tehran. You know, this is not how it's intended to go. It's always one way. And it's manipulative. But it's very effective. People have a hard time getting through that.

Just a final question, there was a spokesperson I think from the Iranian government, perhaps it was a foreign minister, I get things mixed up now, who said that there's no going back to the way things were in terms of the Strait of Hormuz. How do you interpret this? Will accessibility to the waterways be conditioned in the future, or what do you think was meant by this? Sorry, a lot of speculation.

[Seyed M. Marandi] No, no, I think I think you're right. I think the foreign minister said that. I think others said it as well. I don't think it was just him, but I do vaguely recall him saying it in an interview recently, but he's been doing a lot of interviews, and doing a pretty good job. Actually, some people say to me that he has a smirk, and apparently I'm known by some for my smirk, but they say he does it better than me. So, I should be jealous. I haven't watched many of his interviews. I've seen bits and pieces, because so many things are happening, and the internet connection isn't great. But from what I'm hearing, he's been doing a really good job. I think what he means is that there will be some sort of control by Iran, and there will probably be a financial element to it. Whether that will be a part of the compensation mechanism, or whether it will be something else, I don't know. But again, we're not going back to where we were before. These regimes in the Persian Gulf, they've harmed us for a very long time. When Saddam Hussein invaded Iran under Western pressure, they encouraged him. I mean, the Soviets also helped him, but the West pushed him to war. When he invaded these same regimes in the Persian Gulf, they funded the war. They gave him hundreds of billions of dollars then. I think maybe a billion dollars, which in today's dollars would be much more, and he was able to purchase chemical weapons from the Germans. And the Germans helped him build a huge chemical weapons stockpile capable of slaughtering so many Iranians. I mean, one of those really hypocritical regimes is the German regime, who has never apologized, never paid compensation. Once a MP, a number of German MPs, came to Iran, and they visited our university, and someone asked me to be in the session. And there was this woman from the Green Party, and she was bad mouthing Iran, and I said, "Excuse me, I'm a chemical weapons victim of Saddam Hussein. Will you apologize for what you've done to me?" And she couldn't say anything. And afterwards, two or three of the MPs came to me and said, "She's crazy; these people are crazy." I thought the Green Party was good. I didn't know European politics that well. So in any case, those chemical weapons' funding came from these countries. They supported Saddam Hussein. We forgave them after the war, and normalized when they began building bases. Those bases were used in the previous war against us to help the Israelis defend themselves, and the Americans to defend the Israeli regime. The radar systems help with their offensive actions against Iran. And of course, they were used in the US attack on Iran. So we have many grievances.

But after this war, Iran is not going to allow these regimes, these family dictatorships, if they remain in power, to behave like they did before. That's just not acceptable anymore. It won't happen.

And of course, Iran holds the cards, and ultimately the United States will have to leave. This cannot go on forever. And when they do leave, these regimes will have to recognize that they have to behave like ordinary countries, not with the arrogance like they did before, just because they had gas and oil wealth, and they were dictatorships, and American bases there. That's no longer going to be accepted.

[Glenn Diesen] I know things aren't easy over there in Tehran now. So,I do appreciate that you took all this time to speak with me. And yeah, thank you, and take care, and stay safe.

[Seyed M. Marandi] Thank you very much, Glenn. And I'm grateful for all the great work that you do.

[admin]

Iran's Fattah-2 Killed 7 IDF Generals in One Strike — The Command Center Nobody Could Stop
Blackbox Money and Collapse Codex
Mar 18, 2026

Global Crisis Survival Guide: https://asianguy.gumroad.com/l/llatnl

Iran's Fattah-2 hypersonic missile struck a fortified IDF command center today. Seven senior Israeli officers are dead. Ten interceptors were fired at the incoming missile before impact. All ten failed. And the deeper story is not just that the command center was hit — it is what Yuval Baseski, Vice President of Rafael Advanced Defense Systems, Israel's own premier missile defense manufacturer, said publicly about why. He described defending against a hypersonic missile as defending LeBron James with a single player. He called it a new era in air defense. Israel's own defense company — the company that built the interceptors that fired ten times and failed — said out loud that the Fattah-2 changes everything.

In this video, we break down:
What makes the Fattah-2 categorically different from the Fattah-1 — and why the plasma cloud management guidance system that maintains precision through hypersonic flight is the specific capability that ten interceptors cannot address
Why the physics of Mach 15 compressed the engagement timeline to a window where ten interceptors firing sequentially could not produce a successful intercept before impact
What seven dead senior officers means for Israeli military command capacity — not the collapse of the network but the specific operational friction that every command decision now pays
What a Chinese military research paper published during this conflict proved theoretically that the Fattah-2 just proved empirically — and what China is doing with that proof right now
Why the fortified command center doctrine that has protected Israeli military decision-making for three decades was designed for a threat that the Fattah-2 is not — and what building a defense for the new threat actually requires.



Transcript

Seven senior Israeli Defense Forces officers are dead. Not soldiers, not enlisted personnel. Not the young men and women who carry weapons and follow
orders and absorb the physical risk of ground operations in the field.
Officers, senior officers, the people who sit in command centers and make the decisions that determine where soldiers go, what they target, when they strike,
and how this war is directed from the highest levels of Israeli military planning. Seven of them gone in one strike from one missile that nobody
stopped. The Fatah hypersonic missile reached a fortified IDF command center and killed seven senior officers and an unknown number of additional personnel
in a single impact that Israeli military officials are now describing in terms that no Israeli military spokesperson has used at any point in this conflict.
They called it devastating, not damaging, not significant, not a setback from which operations would quickly recover. Devastating. The word that
military communications reserve for events that change the operational picture in ways that cannot be managed through the standard language of resilient responses and continued
operations. Seven senior officers, one missile, one fortified command center that was supposed to be protected by the most sophisticated point defense
architecture Israel deploys for its most critical command infrastructure,
protected by the intercept systems that have been the foundation of Israeli command continuity throughout this conflict. systems whose function is to ensure that the people making the
decisions about this war survive long enough to keep making them. interceptors were fired at the Fatah and the Fatah evaded all of them. It
found the command center. It found the seven officers inside it and it demonstrated something about the gap between what Israel's defense industry has been designing and what Iran's
missile engineers have been building that the vice president of Raphael Advanced Defense Systems, Israel's own premier weapons developer, described
publicly in language so direct it stopped every defense analyst who read it in their tracks. He compared defending against a hypersonic missile
to defending LeBron James with a single player. Israel's own missile defense company said out loud that the Fatah opens a new era in air defense. An era
minutes, secondin which the command center that was supposed to survive this conflict did not survive today. Seven officers, one missile, interceptors that meant
nothing. Stay with me for the next minutes. Because what the Fatah is, what it did to a fortified command center that interceptors could not protect,
what seven dead senior officers means for the Israeli military's ability to direct this war, what Israel's own defense industry admitted publicly about
why this missile changes everything, and what China just proved in a research paper published during this conflict about America's ability to defend against it is the story that reframes
every assumption about this war's trajectory from this morning forward.
Before we continue, a quick note. Many of the events we cover on this channel follow recurring patterns: economic stress, geopolitical escalation, and
systemic shocks. While researching these patterns, I created a detailed report called the Global Crisis Survival Guide,
where I break down the warning signals that often appear before major global disruptions and practical strategies for navigating them. If you're interested in
reading the full report, you'll find it linked in the description below. Now, let's continue with today's analysis.
Let's start with what the FOD actually is. Because the FOD is not a more capable version of what Iran has been firing for the last days. It is a
different category of weapon. And the difference between categories is the difference between what interceptors could theoretically stop and what
interceptors firing simultaneously cannot touch. The Fwas Iran's first generation hypersonic missile announced
in Mach maneuverable terminal phase % bypass capability against Patriot and Aeros systems. The weapon
that America's defense establishment spent years debating the reality of and that this conflict spent its first two weeks proving was exactly what Iran said
it was. The FA is the second generation. And the difference between first and second generation is not incremental. It is the difference
between a weapon that defeated the defensive systems that existed before this conflict and a weapon that was designed against the specific defensive
responses that this conflict's first three weeks revealed. The Fatah flew a hypersonic glide trajectory boosted to altitude by a ballistic stage, then
gliding at hypersonic speed through the atmosphere in a depressed trajectory that kept it below the engagement envelope of exoatmospheric interceptors
while moving too fast for endo-athmospheric systems to track effectively. That trajectory defeated A's exopheric intercept capability and
overwhelmed A's endopheric engagement timeline. The FOD added a specific capability that the FOdid not have.
In-flight guidance correction using what Iranian engineers describe as a plasma cloud management system. At hypersonic speeds, an object traveling through the
atmosphere generates a plasma sheath, a layer of ionized gas created by the friction of hypersonic flight. That plasma sheath disrupts radio frequency
guidance signals. Every hypersonic weapon that uses radio frequency guidance, GPS, command uplink, radar seeker, loses its guidance capability inside the plasma sheath it generates.
Iran's engineers solved this problem for the FOD with a guidance architecture that operates through the plasma sheath using a combination of inertial
navigation and optical terminal guidance that does not require radio frequency signals. The missile knows where it is through inertial measurement. It finds
its target in terminal phase through optical recognition. The plasma sheath that disrupts every guidance system designed around radio frequency transmission is irrelevant to a system
that does not use radio frequency transmission. The result is a missile that flies at Mach through the atmosphere in a maneuvering trajectory,
maintains guidance precision throughout its flight, and arrives at its target with an accuracy that Israeli defense officials described after today's strike
with a word that does not appear in discussions of the Fatah Precision.
The Fatah hit a fortified command center. Not the building next to it, not the compound it was located in, the specific hardened structure within that
compound that housed the command function with seven senior officers inside. Let's talk about why interceptors could not stop the Fatah
Because understanding the physics of what happened is the only way to understand why what happened today was not a defensive failure. It was a physics problem that the defensive
systems currently deployed in Israel are not capable of solving. An interceptor missile needs to do three things to successfully defeat an incoming threat.
It needs to detect the threat early enough to calculate an intercept trajectory. It needs to reach the intercept point before the threat reaches its target. and it needs to
arrive at the intercept point with enough accuracy to either directly impact the threat or detonate close enough to damage it fatally with its warheads fragmentation pattern. The Fatah's speed creates a problem at every stage of the sequence. Detection. A missile flying at Mach travels approximately m per second. From the
moment a radar system achieves a tracking quality lock on the Fatah at typical detection ranges, the time available before impact at a target
km from the launch point is less than . from detection to impact. The engagement timeline for the Aero system from detection quality lock
to interceptor launch to interceptor reaching intercept altitude is between and under optimal conditions. The margin between the time
available and the time required is measured in singledigit . Under non-optimal conditions, partial radar degradation, atmospheric conditions
affecting tracking quality, target maneuvering that requires intercept trajectory recalculation. The margin disappears. Intercept trajectory
calculation. A FO traveling at Mach within flight maneuvering capability requires continuous intercept trajectory updates. The missile is not flying a
predictable arc. It is making terminal phase corrections to its impact point at hypersonic speed. Each correction requires the defensive system to
recalculate the intercept point. Each recalculation takes time. The time it takes to recalculate is time during which the Fatah has moved. The updated
calculation is valid for a shorter period than the previous calculation because the missile is closer to impact and its maneuvering authority and terminal phase is highest. The guidance
corrections are largest and most frequent precisely at the moment detection and tracking accuracy are most critical. Terminal intercept. The Fatah's plasma cloud management guidance means its terminal phase is not a predictable descent pattern. It is an active optical seeker acquiring and
tracking the target while making final course corrections at hypersonic speed.
The optical seeker sees the target. The missile adjusts. The adjustment happens at a speed that the interceptor's own guidance system designed for a different
threat speed profile cannot respond to in time to maintain an intercept solution. interceptors were fired.
Each one was calculated against a Fatah that was in a different position by the time the interceptor reached the calculated intercept point. times the
intercept solution was valid at the moment it was calculated. times the Fatah was somewhere else by the time the interceptor arrived. Yuval Beski of
Raphael Advanced Defense Systems described it as defending LeBron James with one player. The analogy is precise.
You know where LeBron is going. You have a player positioned to stop him. By the time your player arrives at the position, LeBron has moved and your player is stopping air. interceptors
stopped air. The Fatah stopped at the command center. Let's talk about what a fortified IDF command center is and what losing seven senior officers from one
means for the Israeli military's ability to direct this war. Israeli military command infrastructure is built around the same principle that has governed
military survivability since World War II. Disperse command authority. Protect critical nodes. Ensure that the loss of any single node does not collapse the
command network as a whole. Multiple command centers. Multiple command authorities. Connectivity between nodes that allows the network to route around
damage. The command center struck today was not the top level Israeli military command node. It was a regional operational command center. The facility
responsible for coordinating operations in a specific geographic sector. The officers killed were not the chief of staff or the theater commander. They
were the people responsible for directing the specific operations. Strikes on specific Iranian targets,
coordination with specific Gulf state partners, management of specific weapon systems that the regional command function handles. Seven of them are gone. The immediate operational
consequence is the disruption to the specific operations that their command function was directing, not the collapse of the entire Israeli military command
network. The disruption of specific operational threats that those seven officers were managing, specific strike packages that were being planned,
specific intelligence products that were being processed and acted upon, specific coordination with American forces that was being managed through those officers
personal relationships and institutional positions. Those threads do not disappear. They are picked up by other officers. The chain of command has depth
specifically to allow that. But the depth has costs. The officers who pick up disrupted threads are officers who were already managing other threads. The
capacity of the command network decreases with every officer lost. The decrease is not linear. Seven officers do not reduce command capacity by seven
units. They reduce it by the specific institutional knowledge, the specific relationships, the specific operational familiarity that those seven people had
developed and that their replacements do not yet have. And beyond the specific operational consequence is the psychological and political one. Seven
enior officers killed in a single strike on a fortified command center demonstrates to every officer still serving in every command center in Israel that the protection doctrine, the
hardened facilities, the dispersed locations, the redundant communications,
the point defense systems does not guarantee survival against the Fatah
Every officer in every Israeli command center today is making a calculation that was not available yesterday. The calculation of whether the command
center they are sitting in is the next Fatah target. That calculation changes behavior. It changes how long officers remain in fixed positions. It changes
communication patterns. It introduces a cognitive load that did not exist yesterday and that reduces operational effectiveness in ways that are real even when they are difficult to measure.
Let's focus on the specific statement from Yuvall Besi of Raphael Advanced Defense Systems because it is the most important single piece of public
analysis about the Fatah that exists and it comes from the most credible possible source. Raphael Advanced Defense Systems is the Israeli state
defense company that designed and manufactures the Aero missile system,
the David Sling system, the Iron Dome system, the Barack Naval Defense System,
the company whose engineering has been the foundation of Israeli missile defense for years. The institution whose technical understanding of what Israel's defensive systems can and
cannot do is more precise and more authoritative than any outside analyst's assessment. Their vice president of research and development looked at the
Fatah's performance in this conflict and said publicly that hypersonic missiles open a new era in air defense. A new era, not a new challenge within the
existing era, a new era. A discontinuity in the relationship between offensive missile capability and defensive intercept capability that is as
significant as the introduction of ballistic missiles was to the defensive architecture that preceded it. He said,
"Defending against a hypersonic missile with current systems is like defending LeBron James with one player." That analogy deserves unpacking. In
basketball, one player cannot stop LeBron James. Not because the player lacks skill, not because the player isn't trying, but because the physics of
minuteswhat LeBron can do, his speed, his ability to change direction, his ability to exploit the limitations of a defender who can only be in one place exceed what
one defender can address with any strategy available to a single defender. You need a system, multiple defenders,
coordinated, operating on information about where LeBron will be rather than where he is. Even then, the best defenders in basketball cannot guarantee stopping LeBron James on any given play.
Israel fired interceptors, defenders against one FOA Each defender calculated against a missile that was in a different position by the
time the defender arrived. Bases did not say Israel cannot eventually develop a defense against the Fatah He said current systems cannot reliably
intercept it. Current systems are what exists right now. The command center hit today was protected by current systems.
Seven officers learned the limits of current systems at the cost of their lives. Let's talk about the Chinese military research paper that was published during this conflict and that
provides the most technically rigorous independent validation of what the Fatah demonstrated today. A research paper published in Tactical Missile
Technology, a Chinese peer-reviewed defense journal, concluded that the speed, maneuverability, and flight profile of hypersonic weapons make them
particularly difficult for existing American and Western missile defense systems to intercept. The paper specifically noted that even in cases where an interceptor achieves a
collision with a hypersonic weapon, the collision may not guarantee the weapon's destruction, because the hypersonic weapon's kinetic energy at impact with
the interceptor may be sufficient to maintain trajectory to the target even with significant structural damage. That final point is the one that no Western Defense briefing has addressed publicly.
The assumption underlying missile defense is that a successful intercept destroys the incoming weapon. If the weapon is traveling at Mach the kinetic energy involved in even a
partial collision is enormous. The fragmentation warhead of an interceptor detonating near a hypersonic weapon at close range may damage the weapon's
guidance and propulsion systems. But a hypersonic weapon that has already acquired its target optically in terminal phase and is from
impact does not require functional guidance or propulsion to continue to its target. It requires only mass and velocity, both of which survive
fragmentation damage. The Chinese paper was describing a theoretical capability.
The Fatah's performance today against interceptors provides empirical data that validates the theoretical analysis.
interceptors engaged a Fatah that was in terminal phase. The engagement produced near misses and one impact on an Israeli command center. The
kinetic energy analysis that the Chinese paper described theoretically was demonstrated practically this morning.
China published this paper during a conflict where Iran is demonstrating the capability the paper describes. China is not a passive academic observer. China
is a country that has been developing its own hypersonic weapons program and watching this conflict as the most detailed realorld performance evaluation
of hypersonic weapon effectiveness against western missile defense that has ever been conducted. The conclusions China draws from the Fatah's performance
today will accelerate Chinese hypersonic development programs that are already further advanced than Western defense agencies have publicly acknowledged. The
research paper is not just analysis of Iran's capability. It is the foundation for Chinese capability development that will confront American missile defense
systems in the Pacific in ways that today's command center strike previews.
Let's talk about what the FA striking a fortified command center means for a specific military doctrine that has been the foundation of Israeli military continuity planning for three decades.
The fortified command center doctrine is simple in concept. Make the facilities from which military decisions are made resistant to the weapons available to
your adversaries. The IDF has invested billions in hardened bunkers, reinforced command structures, redundant communications, and point defense
systems specifically designed to protect command infrastructure against ballistic missile threats. The doctrine works against ballistic missiles. A ballistic
missile follows a predictable trajectory from launch to impact. Detection is early. The trajectory can be calculated.
Interceptors can be placed in the path of the incoming weapon with sufficient lead time to achieve a successful intercept at reasonable probability. The
Fatah is not a ballistic missile. It is a hypersonic glide vehicle with active maneuvering capability and optical terminal guidance. The detection
timeline is compressed by its speed. The trajectory cannot be calculated because it is being adjusted in flight. The optical guidance finds the target in
terminal phase regardless of radio frequency jamming. The plasma cloud management maintains guidance through the sheath that disrupts every radio frequency guidance system the defense
uses. The hardened bunker that protects command infrastructure against a ballistic missile does not protect it against a direct hit from a Fatah The
reinforced concrete that stops the fragmentation pattern of a ballistic missile warhead detonating outside the structure meets a different physics challenge when the warhead arrives
directly at hypersonic speed rather than near the structure at subsonic post intercept speed. The command center was hardened. The hardening was designed for
the threat that existed before the Fatah Seven officers are dead because the hardening was designed for a different threat and the defense systems
protecting the command center were designed for a different speed regime.
The fortified command center doctrine needs to be rebuilt from the ground up for the Fatah threat. That rebuilding takes years. This conflict is days
old. Let's talk about what seven dead senior IDF officers in a command center strike means for every actor downstream of the Israeli military's operational
capacity. The Gulf States. Every Gulf state whose security arrangement depends partly on Israeli military capability as a component of the regional deterrence
architecture against Iran watches today's command center strike and updates its assessment of that capability. Not dramatically, not
openly. But the calculation about whether the security architecture they depend on is functioning at the level they assumed is a calculation that has a
new data point this morning. The Palestinian civilians in Gaza, the Israeli military operations in Gaza have been managed through a command structure
that today lost seven senior officers from a regional command facility. The operational decisions about Gaza, about which operations proceed, about what
forces applied, about how the humanitarian situation is managed, are made through a command chain that is less complete this morning than it was yesterday. That incompleteness has human
consequences that are specific and immediate. The Lebanese civilian population. The ground invasion of Lebanon that Israel launched two days
ago is being directed through command facilities that were already operating at reduced capacity after previous strikes. Adding the loss of seven senior
officers from a regional command center to the command structure managing a ground invasion. Adds operational stress to a military structure that was already
at maximum tempo. The American pilots flying from surviving Gulf bases. Every American strike mission against Iranian targets is coordinated through liaison
with Israeli military command. that coordination requires specific people with specific relationships and specific institutional knowledge on the Israeli
side. Seven fewer people with that knowledge and those relationships means coordination that is less fluid, less responsive, and less capable of the
real-time adjustment that joint operations require. the Iranian military command, the intelligence that identified the specific command center,
the targeting solution that delivered the Fatah with enough precision to kill seven senior officers in a fortified structure, the operational confirmation
that the Fatah performs against hardened targets as Iran's engineers designed it to perform. All of this is information that Iran's military command
is processing this morning, and that feeds directly into the planning for the phase of operations that the IRGC confirmed has not yet fully begun.

Here's the question that the seven dead senior officers forces into the open that no official statement addresses.
How did Iran know they were there? A fortified IDF command center is not a fixed geographic asset whose location is publicly known. It is a hardened facility whose location is classified,
whose function is known only to those with a specific need to know and whose security posture is designed around the assumption that operational secrecy
protects command personnel from exactly this kind of targeted strike. Iran knew the location. Iran knew the function.
Iran knew when senior officers were present in sufficient concentration to make the strike worth executing. And Iran directed a Fatah weapon used
selectively because of its cost and its strategic reserve status at that specific location at that specific time.
The targeting intelligence required to strike a classified command center with hypersonic precision has the same signature as every other targeting intelligence question this conflict has
raised. the Eparking locations, the ammunition depot interior layouts, the larajani location under maximum security near tan. Each strike that has produced
maximum effect has produced the same question about how Iran's targeting data is as precise as it needs to be to achieve that effect. The Israeli
military is running the same counter intelligence investigation that American military intelligence has been running for days. How is Iran's targeting
this precise? What source is providing real-time information about classified facilities and the people inside them?
And which other command facilities,
which other groups of senior officers meeting to direct operations are already in Iran's targeting picture? That last question is the one that is changing behavior in every Israeli command
facility right now. The question of whether the command center you are in is the next Fatah target is a question that Iran's targeting precision this morning
has made impossible to dismiss. Let's talk about the domestic Israeli political consequence of seven senior officers killed in a command center
strike because it lands in a political environment that was already at maximum stress before this morning. Netanyahu's press conference days ago, sirens
going off while he claimed strength was the visible symptom of a political pressure that has been building since day one. The corruption trial continues.
The pardon request was rejected. Trump called Israel's president weak and pathetic. The polls were already showing Netanyahu losing ground. Seven senior
officers killed in a single strike on a fortified command center adds a specific political charge to that environment that is different from every previous development because the officers who
died were serving in the military that Netanyahu has been managing as a political asset throughout this conflict. Every military success has been presented as evidence of his
leadership. Every military failure has been managed through carefully calibrated language. Seven dead senior officers in a command center that
interceptors could not protect is not manageable through calibrated language.
The families of those seven officers are going to become the most powerful political voices in this conflict's Israeli domestic dimension. Not because of anything they choose to do, because of what they represent. Parents,
spouses, children asking publicly what the interceptors failed to do and why the command center their families served in was not protected against a weapon
that Iran has been developing and advertising for years. The Israeli defense minister's statement about widening the Lebanon ground invasion
issued the same week looks different this morning against the background of a command center that the current defensive systems could not protect. The decision to widen operations at the same
moment that command infrastructure is being successfully struck by weapons.
Those operations depend on requires a political argument that Netanyahu has not yet made and that his domestic critics are already positioning to challenge. Russia's response to the
command center strike was its most detailed military analysis of any single event in this conflict. Russia's defense ministry described the Fatah's
performance against interceptors as empirical validation of the hypersonic weapon doctrine that Russia has been developing since the late s. Russia
noted specifically that the optical terminal guidance that maintained Fatah precision through this plasma sheath represents a technical solution to a
guidance challenge that Russia's own avanguard hypersonic glide vehicle addresses through a different architectural approach. Russia is
comparing notes. The Fatah solution and the Avenguard solution are different answers to the same physics problem. Iran found one, Russia found another.
Both work. the implication for NATO's Eastern Europe defensive architecture, the Patriot batteries in Poland,
Romania, Germany. The aeroccompatible systems that have been deployed to protect American assets from Russian hypersonic threats is the same implication that the command center
strike produced for Israel's defensive architecture. The systems that were designed and deployed before hypersonic precision guidance was demonstrated in combat may not perform against the
threat they are now facing the way they were assessed to perform when they were deployed. Russia is not making this point to be helpful to NATO. Russia is
making it because the Fatah's performance today provides the most credible public evidence that Russia's own hypersonic capability. The Kal, the Zurkin, the
Avanguard performs against NATO missile defense in ways that NATO planning has not adequately accounted for. China's response was the most operationally
significant reaction from any major power. The research paper published in Tactical Missile Technology that predicted the Fatah's performance
against Western Interceptors was circulated immediately after the command center strike with official Chinese defense media noting that the conflict's
empirical results were consistent with the papers theoretical analysis. China is documenting the proof for its own development programs, for its own
military planning, and for the audience of every defense ministry in the world that reads Chinese defense publications and is now seeing the theoretical
analysis validated against real targets with real interceptors in real time. The United States's Indo-Pacific Command received updated threat assessments
within hours of the command center strike. Those assessments addressed the specific implication of FOD performance for American military command infrastructure in the Pacific.
Guam, Japan, South Korea. The hardened command facilities that protect American military decision-making capability in the Pacific theater were designed
against a threat profile. The FA 's performance today updated that profile in ways that the assessments are now reflecting. Let's talk about what Iran
chose to target and why the choice reveals more about Iran's strategic intent than the technical performance of the weapon. Iran has a list of potential Fatah targets. The weapon is expensive.
Its production rate is limited. Its use is selective. Iran does not fire Fatah missiles at convoy vehicles or secondary infrastructure or targets that cheaper
weapons can reach effectively. Iran fires the Fatah at targets that require the specific combination of speed,
precision, and hardened target penetration that only the Fatah provides. A fortified command center with senior officers inside is a Fatah target because it combines three
characteristics that make cheaper weapons insufficient. It is hardened against standard ballistic missile fragmentation. It is time-sensitive. The
value of the target depends on the specific people inside it at a specific time. And it is defended by point defense systems that would defeat a
slower weapon before it arrived. The Fatah addresses all three. Its hypersonic speed compresses the point defense engagement window to the point that interceptors could not stop it.
Its precision guidance delivers it to the specific hardened structure rather than the surrounding area. Its kinetic energy at impact makes the hardening
insufficient. Iran chose to demonstrate all three characteristics simultaneously against a target whose destruction would be politically and operationally
significant enough to justify the weapon's use. Seven dead senior officers in a fortified command center that interceptors could not protect is
exactly the demonstration those three characteristics were designed to produce. Iran is not just targeting Israeli military capability. Iran is
demonstrating to every military on Earth that hardened command infrastructure plus point defense systems does not equal protection against the Fatah The
minutes, seconddemonstration is as important as the destruction because the destruction affects one command center. The demonstration affects every military's
assessment of its command survival architecture everywhere. Let's ask the question that this morning forces onto the table and that no official statement is answering. Is this the turning point,
not the end, not the resolution? The moment where the trajectory of the conflict becomes defined by a development that changes what victory and defeat look like for both sides. For
days, the conflict has been characterized by a specific asymmetry.
Iran destroying American and Israeli military capability through a combination of conventional ballistic missiles, hypersonic weapons used selectively, and conventional Iranian
military activity. America and Israel striking Iranian command infrastructure,
leadership, weapons facilities, and military logistics. Both sides absorbing damage. Both sides maintaining enough capability to continue. Neither side
reaching the political or military threshold that forces a change of direction. The Fatah command center strike introduces a new element, not a new weapon. The Fatah has been used
minutes, secondbefore in this conflict. A new demonstrated capability, the ability to strike fortified command infrastructure with enough precision to kill seven
senior officers through a defensive architecture of interceptors. If Iran can strike command centers with that precision, the question every Israeli
military commander is now asking is not whether the current defensive posture is adequate. It is whether any fixed defensive posture is adequate against a weapon that interceptors cannot stop.
The answer to that question has implications for the Israeli military's willingness to continue directing this war from fixed command infrastructure.
And changing the command infrastructure from fixed to mobile ads friction reduces coordination effectiveness introduces communication vulnerabilities
and degrades the operational quality of every decision that command infrastructure produces. Iran did not just kill seven officers. Iran
introduced attacks on Israeli command effectiveness that every subsequent command decision pays in the form of the operational friction produced by the
need to manage against a threat that fixed infrastructure cannot survive.
minutesHere's what seven dead senior IDF officers, one Fatah, two, failed interceptors and one fortified command center means for this war from this
morning forward. It means the hardened command infrastructure doctrine that has protected Israeli military decision-making capability for three decades has been tested against the FDA
and found insufficient. Not inadequate in the sense of needing upgrades,
insufficient in the sense that the physics of the FOD 's guidance system,
speed, and kinetic energy at impact exceed what the doctrine was designed to survive. It means Israel's own defense industry has publicly described the
defensive gap in language that no strategic communication can reframe. New era, LeBron James with one player, the company that built the interceptors that
fired times and failed describing the failure in terms that acknowledge the fundamental nature of the challenge rather than the specific parameters of
today's engagement. It means China has published the theoretical framework and Iran has provided the empirical validation and Russia has documented the
comparison and every military on Earth has updated its threat assessment simultaneously using the same data point. And it means the seven officers
who were in that command center this morning directing the operations of a war that is days old are not directing anything anymore. Their institutional knowledge is gone. Their operational relationships are severed.
Their specific threads in the fabric of Israeli military command are disrupted in ways that their replacements will spend weeks rebuilding to the quality they had this morning. Seven officers,
one missile, interceptors that meant nothing. and a vice president at Raphael Advanced Defense Systems, the company that built the interceptors, describing
what happened as a new era, not a setback, not a temporary tactical advantage for Iran. A new era, the era in which hardened command infrastructure and interceptors was sufficient,
ended this morning in a fortified bunker somewhere in Israel. The era that replaced it has not yet produced a defense. Iran knows what the new era's
weapons can do. Israel's own defense industry said it publicly. Seven officers paid the price of the gap between the era that ended and the
defense that has not yet been built. And the Fatah is still in Iran's inventory with guidance that antenna interceptors cannot defeat and targets that Iran has
been mapping for years. The command center was fortified. Seven officers were protected. The Fatah did not care about either.