Part 2 Anti-Anti-Nazi Barbarian Hordes are Knocking Down ...

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Alastair Crooke: Iran Sets Conditions for Access to the Strait of Hormuz
Glenn Diesen
Mar 20, 2026

Alastair Crooke is a former British diplomat and the Founder of "Conflicts Forum" based in Beirut. He was formerly an advisor on Middle East issues to Javier Solana, the EU Foreign Policy Chief. Crooke outlines Iran's retaliation strategy, which entails conditional access to the Strait of Hormuz.



Transcript

Welcome back to the program. We are here today with Alistister Crook, a former British diplomat and negotiator who worked uh for decades on the different
conflicts in the Middle East. Uh Alistister Crook is also the founder and director of Conflicts Forum and I've
left a link to this uh his uh excellent uh substack that is Conflicts Forum in the description. So, thank you as always for coming back on the program.
My pleasure to join you today.
Um only over the past few days we've seen some u I guess dramatic developments. The US and Israel they
attacked this South Paris which is the largest gas field in the world the Busher nuclear plant um and also
assassinated Iranian leaders which is now triggering this massive retaliation from Iran. I was wondering uh how do you
read this situation to to what extent is this uh uh you know escalating out of control or is this calculated? How how
are you assessing uh yeah how where the direction this is going?
Uh I think the wheels are coming off this whole thing. It's sort of spiraling uh really out of control. Um and it it
it increased enormously with um if you like that attack on the Iranian end of
the south gas field which was is important to Iran. It um underpins a lot
of its electrical supplies and other things. Uh so that was a very big escalation.
Um now uh of course Trump has said that it he did a true social just the other
day saying oh no it was you know this was gaka had nothing to do with it. was
the innocent in all of this and it's outrageous uh that in a response
um Iran had attacked um the energy infrastructure of a number of Gulf states five in all the infrastructure
not the tanks any longer not the storage which was um under attack before or the
ports but this was the infrastructure and they attacked if you like um the
infrastructure of Gata. Uh and and that has set it back caused huge
damage to to that um uh the liquification um structures, the infrastructure uh set
it back uh and damaged. and Gata is now um calling force measure on its
long-term gas contracts for years and they estimate it's going to take at least years um uh to rebuild it. So
what happened then? Um and the explanation that I have heard from someone talking to those in the circles
of um Trump uh Mike Wolf and he says what happened was um Kushner Jared
Kushner rang up his father-in-law and he said you know the gutteries are hopping mad. They're going crazy. They're
already angry at what's happened and you know this is bad news because Garrett has huge sort of investments there. much
of his um you know funds come or his um uh investment funds come from Gata and
so he was said you know this is bad they're really angry and they're very upset about it and and Trump from said
well look I look I'll take care of it I'll take care of it and so he produced this some uh response um this true
social saying oh no you know I didn't even know about it and the gutteries didn't know about it. It was purely
Israel. So he put it off onto the Israelis. The Israelis are pretty clear.
I mean, you can read it. We been looking at the Hebrew press. I mean, this morning and they're very clear and they
say, "Listen, um, on these things, we're joined at the head with the White House." Of course they agreed it. Of course they approved it. Um, and why?
because Trump thought, you know, that pressure that there would be that would
put pressure on Iran to abandon um the selective closure of Homos. He thought
that this sudden sort of attack on the gas of Iran, the Iranian side of the uh
the South P field that would the Iranians, oh my goodness, we better stop
minutesand open a whole mos I mean delusional stuff really. That's why I say the
wheels are coming off this thing because you're getting into complete delusion.
And then then, you know, I watched a clip. I don't know exactly the date, but you know, Trump was sitting there with
Susan Wilds, who turned out to be one of the the main advisor besides Jared and Steve Whit on on on the Middle East
issues. Um, she of course is um closely connected to Israel. I think she was a
campaign manager for Netanyahu at one stage. Um anyway, he's sitting there with her and he's saying that you know I
I this is I don't understand these missiles these missiles the attack was intended for for for for
Iran. No one expected that they would uh you know attack back. They would react
and hit Gulf States. I mean who could have guessed that? I mean you know uh we
are in Laan it's getting completely out of control and um the wheels are coming
off because there's a lot of you know this is becoming quite desperate in terms of American politics and in terms
of the economy. I mean the economy particularly for Euro I mean he doesn't care too much about that but even
American what they call gas prices petrol prices to Europeans but the gas prices are are are going up and people
are noticing it and uh are not happy about that. So it's really you know
going out of control. It's serious the attack, this attack um by uh Israel on
the Iranian gas facilities and the reaction of Israel to it is
taking energy off the market for many years perhaps perhaps up to five years.
the the gaties say, you know, you need special steel to replace it and it's not going to be very very quick. So, you
know, of course, now panic is setting in and uh markets are still just about
surviving because they survive centrally every time Trump tells them. I mean it's I don't know
how they run these things but every time Trump says oh it's going to be a short short hall soon be over then the markets
go back up again I mean it's infantile really you know they don't seem to do any sort of um due diligence to these
things that they just go up and down according to you know um oh and then he says it'll be short it'll be short now
and then we'll open and it'll be short and then prices will sink. Oil prices will go straight down. I I mean, you
know, again, as I say, this thing is just sort of sparringly not out of just out of control, but out
of rationality and, you know, a sense of what, you know, what is possible for the
United States to do and what is not. I mean, now we we know they're talking about sending two and a half thousand
Marines aboard amphibious ships to K Island or to to to the sort of open you
know militarily open Hormuz and uh and now I believe I'm not sure I haven't
confirmed it. So it may be uh you know there's so much misreporting at the moment and so much propaganda going
around that you you can't tell but he said no you know he may have to send thousands and to to to
uh o o open horos we may get into that in a while if you
want but because that is delusional too absolutely delusional
And um we uh Israel is putting out absolute propaganda
you know Media's virtual um news um briefing conference
you know the line that is coming out from from Israel is you know they are collapsing Iran is collapsing their
command system their leadership and their command system is in chaos. They don't know who's in charge any longer.
It's a complete chaos. They are breaking down. And you know, um we have destroyed
we have destroyed utterly their nuclear capability, Netanyahu said, and we've destroyed their capability of um uh assembling and constructing new missile.
hoping I suppose that people don't remember he said exactly the same thing after the June war that they destroyed
um both the ballistic missile capacity and the nuclear prospect um so but it's
quite clear um the interest of Israel at least the faction in circles around
Metanyao because others in Israel are saying other things but Those that are
in the Netanyahu circles are very clear that unless it can be presented as a
great success, presented mainly for Trump's interest as a great success that everything is going
then there is going to be a crisis in the United States for Israel and for Trump. So they have to keep the
propaganda blowing full stake in order to say no, everything is going perfectly. There's no problems at all.
Um this is a great success and of course it's Trump's success. Um and he needs
that because there's big divisions opening up within the Republicans and indeed within in the Democrats. Um, and
it's turning to be something that can be an increasing uh danger to Trump, to the Republicans,
indeed to the sort of, I believe, the political fabric of the United States because people are getting more and more
critical about, you know, who actually took us into this war, what were their interests,
what is sort of barely visible. able um command structure above the political
level that takes us in. We don't know who leads it, what their interests are,
but nonetheless is this feeling in one section of the uh republic and the mega
side that there is this invisible if you like super structure
um that is if you like a control structure uh that is stands above what
they can see, what they can touch and what they can understand. And they're saying we need to really understand
what's going on. And of course, um the the the the
resignation by the LA head of the counterterrorist um department uh has exacerbated this.
Yeah.
Well, well, you follow the Israeli media, especially the Hebrew language media quite carefully. Uh, how do the
Israelis assess this development of the war? I mean, how is victory defined?
victory I guess redefined and uh well overall had the assessment of how Israel is able to well you said they exaggerate
a lot the pain they're dealing to the Iranians in terms of everything falling apart but also their ability to absorb pain um because uh
yes it's quite it's it's quite difficult to
give a direct answer because much of that he is based, you know, the
sentiment that the support for the war in Israel is at % according to the post that there's huge support for it.
minutesBut much of that is based on on sort of a game I you can call it or delusion
whatever you want but uh is the expectation which has been fueled not
only by Netanyahu but also by Trump's statements about obliteration. We've obliterated their navy. We've
obliterated their missiles. We've obliterated everything. we and we bomb and we bomb. So there is a lot of
expectation that um Iran's state is about to collapse and fall and that this
will be a miracle a miracle that is often framed in religious terms by Nemi
Apple and others that this is you know something that is almost a divine providence coming um led by um Trump
that is going to um bring about a sort of pro- Western um completely dradicalized
um disarmed um Iran um from from the war. And so there's a lot of that and
people plead to that a great deal. And you I have to say that because you know
they are not immune to the propaganda that's been coming out about this from from America and being followed up. I
mean the propaganda is all over the west. I mean European newspapers are full of the same sort of propaganda that
suggesting that Iran is about to collapse and will fall into uh Israel's lap any time and it will be completely
um dradicalized in uh in a in a sense where the whole cycle has been seared by
the defeat so much that it will emerge you know from this war uh like at the
end of the World War, Germany or Japan emerged, they're slightly seared
vibrant defeat that they experienced. Um so, so there's that side of it and
there's still that I mean euphoria in parts of the Hebrew press. There's also people who say and senior military
officers and others who who say very clearly well look you know Trump
actually should just declare literally can get out and you know the sooner he does that the better and you know they
are very careful not to say anything too much about you know the damages that are
inflicted in Israel because the propaganda inside Israel is very strong
minutestoo. The censorship is um huge. There is a year prison sentence for photographing incoming Iranian missile.
There is a -year prison sentence for photographing the afternoon. Yes, I know you probably seen videos um of you know
the remains of bonds and so on. Um but as the um Israeli news um magazine uh
they have reported that these videos that we see are being run by the
authorities in Israel by their public relations departments deliberately to
show almost you know banal um images as slightly damaged park debris in the
street accompanied by messages only light injuries have been experienced and they're mostly almost all they are sort
of an Indian or a Sri Lankan has been injured by by by by these uh missiles.
So they are deliberately showing a little glimpse of the the debris and in
one case they they you know the they they were attacked by a locals who said no no what are you filming this this is
nothing film what really has happened here and you know the camera crew just ignored them and continued. So,
I'm just trying to paint a picture that for Israelis, do they know how damaging
um the miss Iranian attacks are? Do they have a sense of the balance in this war?
I don't think they do really have a proper sense to it for those reasons because of the
endless sort of good news propaganda and also because you know nothing is allowed
to be shown. However, I mean you know uh last night uh it was reported um after
the Iranian bar million people were in shelters for the whole night. Well, um
my understanding is that equates almost exactly to the population of Israel at
and a half mill. Um but so I mean there must be a greater sense of something
wrong. But I guess a lot of people just cross their fingers and hope that, you know, this is all going to turn out to
be, you know, a divine victory for for for for Israel.
So um that's on the Israeli side. On on the um Iranian side, I mean, you it's
minutesmuch easier to see because we've seen the photographs of, you know, afterar and people. I mean quite clearly Iran is
now more together, more um engaged um
than since the since the um the revolution in I mean they are fully
behind um this the state and fully supporting it and they are resilient and
it's tough. I mean, you know, when a when you see when a missile comes and
lands nearby, they just stand. They don't run, you know, they don't run for the shelters. They just stay out in the
squares at night when this happens. I mean, of course, occasionally if if I mean, people do. And of of course, you
know, a lot of the attacks strikes have been on, I think Iran says they've had hospitals attacked um in the spirit.
That's from the Iranian sources that they say the head of the medical service sayly hospitals have been attacked,
schools have been attacked, residential blocks have been attacked. Of course,
people have to run uh when that that sort of attack is taking place. But by and large, the resilience is strong.
Well, I I thought in in this war if the purpose is to exhaust each other, that is to uh measured by the ability to
cause pain and absorb pain, it makes sense in the propaganda to exaggerate the pain caused on the adversary and the
the limited pain caused on one's own. Uh I guess Iran is different in this regard because it was attacked. So if it shows
the destruction to itself, it becomes also yet evidence of what the aggressor has done and it also helps to unify the
country because this is not the cost of military opportunism as it would then be seen by the populations of of Israel. Uh
but uh how do you make sense of the wider Iranian uh retaliation strategy?
because uh as you said before uh Trump claimed that no one could have foreseen that they would hit the US military
bases across the Middle East which uh I which is an incredible statement but uh
uh but it's interesting that they apparently wasn't well prepared for attack that there would be attacks on these bases the attacks on on the energy
facilities in the region the closure of the straight or moose is this essentially a economic strategy solely or how Were you assessing the the objective here of the Iranians?
Well, there's a fundamental objective that people often overlook um because it's becoming pretty clear that the West
was not prepared for a conflict. They were prepared for a very short, you know, -day bombing exercise. Their
logistics were for a short bombing process and
those logistics are now expiring running out very clearly. Interceptors are not I
mean there's clearly Israel does have almost zero intercept capacity especially through the new missiles that
Iran is using. The the latest one being the PARhypersonic missile. um and also
in Gulf you know logistics have not been attempted. So there was no pro there was no preparation
for it was not thought through the planning for this. But on the other hand, Iran has been planning this for
years against the possibility that at one time or another they would have to fight a war with the United States because of years of hostility
effective to to Iran. And there was it seemed to be there was no way out because otherwise you got into this
cycle which Galibah has said you know you have war then you have the truce then the war comes back three years
later for truce you heard all this from you know Russia too about the danger of
ceasefires and um what they lead to so they they're very clear that it's along
so what this means is that they have been where they have a plan, if you like, uh, a sort of paradigm
of how they will sort of increase the pressure on Israel and they will judge
that to, if you like, the depletion of the capacities of the West and of Israel
and to reach a peak probably just after they judge that those capacities are are waning.
minutesso that they can have the maximum effect on on on on Israel. So, um for for Iran
really it's only just getting started. I mean, they knew it would be, you know,
two to three weeks and then they calculated. I mean I don't I'm not privy to their to their actual collision but I
do know that they were thinking that it would be two or or so weeks and then
then the depletion will become evident and then they could use the main force
that they had been keeping. So it is both a very phased and planned structure
that they have for a long war that would reach its peak at a point where they saw the maximum military advantage to it.
And so they've been keeping missiles back um and husbanding um if you like
the more sophisticated missiles. They've been keeping those back, metering their
use out for a long war and for the moment that they wanted to rise to a
peak and that I think is a psych psychological issue as much as it's a military one. you know, when is it going
to be the most effective of collapsing the psyche of Israelis?
When is the moment when it's going to cause a rethink and an undermining of
the confidence and the arrogance in parts of the West,
if you go too soon, you don't affect it.
So it's psychological as well as a military calculus I believe that is
underpinning Penny that so you know it's a prepared force carefully prepared
wellthought out asymmetrical warfare against illought out illprepared
poor logistically supplied alternative coming from New the United States and from Israel. They haven't got the
missiles. They haven't got the interceptors. They need for anything other than a short war. They bet on a
short war. They clearly already wrong on that calculus. They're wrong on the calculus that the state was about
to crumble because they were assassinating people. I mean, you know,
for all, you know, the hype about Israeli intelligence and how
wonderful they are, they've made really some strategic intelligence misjudgments.
They still consider they still some of not all of them I emphasize there are
some that see you know the idea that after Larijani was killed that's the one it was like Kasani
now it's going to collapse the state so they thought they had they were convinced of that and now they're
saying well it didn't happen there's no sign of it hasn't happened and the command still carries on. So a lot of Israelis are looking at it
with clear eyes, but they haven't come to the conclusion of what that means. I mean, you know what that that leaves
them confused and, unsure, you know, so what's next? Where do
we go from here? And I don't think there, you know, they have an answer to that. So that's the
element of it in terms of how Iran is thinking
about this war.

And the other part of the the war, apart from the kinetic part, and this is really important, it's so
significant, Lloyds of London have come out -- I said it yesterday or the day before -- but Lloyds have now confirmed, Lloyds
who are the main insurance agents for shipping worldwide, the IRGC has now completed a system for allowing the
passage of approved vessels through, and this is very important, because It's through a special
channel which runs, if you look at the map you'll see the island of
Keshing, which is quite close to the Musenban, if you like, peninsula there,
but between Kam, and a small Iranian island called Lar, is the new channel;
not the main channel, the channel which is for big ships, if you like, it's a slightly smaller
channel. It's very close to Kessan. So there can be a visual inspection of the vessels passing through, and checking
that they have the license, the permission to pass through.
Whereas the main route, I don't know if they're going to mine it, or if they're going to just simply
attack any attempt at an escort, or a naval vessels, American naval vessels
going in that. I don't think that it's understood that in fact,
over that entire Hormuz's passage, main channel, which is the one that the
Americans would have to use, because their naval vessels have a deeper drop. And the
fact that they've created this small channel, what is so interesting about
it is I think they've given nine countries access.
India; they include vessels from Pakistan; Malaysia; I can't remember the full list,
but those four countries' vessels, and what they are required to do is to show that their cargoes
are bought with Yuan, and not with dollars.

And this is going to reset the whole global energy paradigm. You will not get
passage for any cargo that is traded in US dollars.
This is going to be the case for the Gulf states, which will be a shock to them. And it will be the case for
Europe. And I think, I can't confirm it, but I think there are some European
states who are toying with opening negotiations. So Lloyds of London is saying that the IRGC are about to make it a regulated system of passage through the
special emitted channel. And they will check at CASM that they have
the papers, who bought in Yuan, and that this will be negotiated, and
regulated, and become the way in which the energy
supply can be served. But only by those states that have not taken or
provided military support to the attack on Iran, and which are leaving the
US dollar structure and buying only in yuan.

And I think ultimately
everyone was going to have to choose. It puts people on the spot/ You know, it may be awkward but the Gulf
states will have to choose, because it's not just oil and gas that go down the Strait of Hormuz.
UAE imports nearly all its food through Hormuz, and I believe they have about __ days of reserves of food at the
moment. And then there are other things like fertilizer
through the Hormuz.

So they have a chokehold, the IRGC has a chokehold on
this, and they can regulate the amount of
energy passing through, possibly just to be sufficient to
avoid a major economic collapse, but not enough
not to cause a certain amount of pain, or to minimize their
chokehold over energy.

And this if you
like the leverage over western state very interesting and of course China
vessels are passing through without problem they have been from the start Chinese festivals in fact you know I
think some America keep saying well you know they're going to try and stop it for China but the Chinese vessels pass
pass pass pass pass pass pass pass pass
pass pass pass pass pass pass pass pass pass pass pass pass pass pass pass pass through and whereas China does take %
as of um the uh oil energy that passes through horos
crucial to China because it's only % of their total uh energy imports into China
because they've many other sorts of energy. So yes, it's significant but it is not existential China even if it were
shut but it's not going to be shut. And so it's really you know we've heard a lot about um freedom of navigation of
the seas which America seems to take it to be their prerogative.
Well actually they are just losing that because a new freedom of navigation
um of the area ra and horm and babal mandan
babal mand is coming into effect. So this is a complete inversion of the
geopolitical para. Um and and
I just just add you know what it does is it affects this basic strategy that we
saw in the national security statement the NSS um uh that um was drawn up by I was
giddy's main colby not ever anyway the assistant secretary who wrote did a book about it earlier,
but his book was essentially saying we cannot allow China
um to if you like consume as little as they are. They have to consume more
because we have to stop them exporting more. So we have to restrict their exports and make them and coers them to
be more to be a more of a consumption an internally consumption nation. Uh and so
that we can leave so the export market is now more open for America to compete in this area and we can do that of one
of two ways. the NSS suggest either through tariffs and sanctions or
alternatively by blockades and squeezes on the sea
passages the naval if you like corridors the choke points um that affect China uh
Russia and um Iran and so we've clearly see from Venezuela the neighbor
blockade, Cuba, naval blockade, seizure of vessels, seizure of Russian so-called
um you know their their their fleet um of tankers. uh and so both Russia and
China see you know this American strategy of trying to squeeze in China's
case that energy supply in Russia's case the energy exports by um either
blockades or tightening the the the screws on on the choke points or by just seizing declaring all the all their
vessels all their vessels to a sanction.
Well, um it was a good point you make that um the the great powers uh the great maritime powers they always
extract a lot of power out of controlling these um well key maritime corridors uh the British and then later the United States and this this is
indeed if you look at the uh Alfred Mound the strategy when the for the US to become a great power. A lot of this
happened after the Spanish uh American war of After that you saw the US controlling all these key corridors.
Hawaii gave them control over you know the Pacific. Uh you have the Panama Canal connecting these oceans. Again the
US under Trump uh reasserted this control over the Panama Canal. Is it Greenland would be good for Atlantic and
also the Arctic where the Russians are setting up a corridor. the as you mentioned the blockade on Venezuela,
Cuba, we're really back in this uh well the freedom of navigation it's something large powers can strip as well away and
again this campaign against the Russian ships something that also is you know enhanced ability to do especially with NATO expanding in the in the Baltic Sea
but against the Chinese the Americans always have the straight of Mala so you always have this key point which you go after but this is why it's so unique as
and I'm glad you mentioned you know straight of moose but they can also with the cooperation with Yemen start to
tighten up the Babel um Mand the that that other straight accessing the Red Sea so there's a lot of things
in the planure that is certainly in the opinion plan be absolutely sure but as I said all of
this is you know toughly meeted and planned you know the Hezbollah have been activated. The Hashad in Iraq have been
activated at the right time. And I don't know when that is. Of course, the Houthies are all primed and ready to to
shut down the um the pipeline um that Saudi Arabia has that connects to to the
Red Sea, the um the um loading um port where they can load uh petroleum from
Saudi Arabia. It's only about million barrels I think it is total um a day but
they'll shut that down at the right moment. It's all about getting, you know, the balance of these things uh just right. But I was going to say, you know, when did all this start in weight?
It's quite interesting. I think you know in the late th century was crucial because Churchill made this dramatic
decision that he was going to stop having the navy, the Royal Navy of
Britain fueled by coal and change it to oil
um uh oil engines. And so the whole navy was converted away from coal which had
been that and to oil. And of course most of that all had to come from Iran. And
so much of that thinking has stayed in the process that they have to keep you
know oil even from that distant period you know um Iranian oil and the idea of
the allowing the Iranians to nationalize their oil um and keep it out of the western naval hands has been an even if
you know nowadays we have nuclear ships and everything like this you know these old um these old ideas linger on something.
Yeah. Well, um uh yeah, I assumed I saw some uh uh US Marines leaving America's
west coast and I assume that perhaps they might be heading for Yemen to to yeah to to possibly preempt the shutting
down of the Red Sea. Again, I don't know what the Americans are thinking, what what they're going for, but uh but the the Iranians, they did say uh or
indicated that uh things with the straight of moose can't go back to the way things were. So, I I saw that you
mentioned this um uh yeah, this creating the selective access to straight moose and the safe shipping corridors on your
uh substack as well. And I I was wondering if if this is a possibility that this could also be used as a form of extracting reparations in terms of
taxing those that go through because uh um I I've heard this comment as well that the Gulf States at some point will
have to yeah pay pay compensation for the destruction they allowed the US to inflict on on Iran.
I understand I can't be absolutely sure but I understand that the fee for Pakistan's passage through this on this
channel was two million uh dollars equivalent in one but it was million I
think it was to to uh uh to to to use it. So yes the IRGC are building a sort
of thrust. So all right the the Marines what are they going to achieve? I mean I
don't think again I mean I can't see that this is going to the the idea of
boots on the ground is has I mean it just seems absurd the as you pass around
the Musandon Peninsula um in hormood um the very narrow straight there um from
the landside the Iranians have a degree um fire control over that over the o
over over over the that point behind on the Iranian side all up the horos is a
mountain range and so at the moment they control um if you like hormos it's under
fire control from artillery not on the coast way back in you know from even
from mountain I mean kilometer uh for an artillery is is okay. The straits at
that point uh when you go through it is only by kilometers wide when it passes
through Larak and Kirsten. Um so they can control it simply by far artillery
fire. Um but also they have all these other means. They have things we haven't
seen yet. that um submerged submersible drones which you could think of as
high-speed torpedoes, you know, um which um are directable, scarable, you can
target them. They travel underwater and then hit a vessel. Then they have
surface drones, dude boats with explosives that are can be directed and
they are in underwater tunnels and they can emerge from tunnels that have been
mined into the into the sea, come out and they're very fast and they can attack the vessel. And then they have
man drones or at least man speeders. I think they are supposed to have at least
um of these and of the unmanned var varieties and they are uh equipped
with anti-ship missile and then you have many submarines which could maneuver
into the uh homeless because they are uh
small and do not need a great depth and they and far anti-ship missiles um
whilst submerged. So you know when we hear you know oh the Iranian Navy has been disabled it's on the floor of the ocean. I mean they just obliterated it.
They haven't obliterated one jot the um ability of the Iranians to control this passage and indeed being passed
straight. And so where are these amphibious ships going to go with these marines to take control back of uh of Homos? I mean we hear talk of K Island.
C Island's at the other end of the Homo stakes. It's not by the straits at all.
I I I've been to C Island and you know and that's under control of artillery
and ballistic missiles and this whole coastline of Mos which is Iranian is
minuteskm long. I mean so what do you get? You put marines
into this. I mean that equates to one marine for every kilometer of the coastline.
I mean, and then what do you do? Who's going to keep supplying them? How are they going to be reinforced? How are they going to be supported? All a
mystery. No one says, no one sort of spells it out. I suspect because they
can't. And that's why I I wonder if it'll really happen because I mean I can't think of, you know, a a better
recipe for disaster than to try and land a lot of, you know, Americans who are
completely unfamiliar with the Middle East into a country which is mountainous, has forests, has tunnels,
um, and has an army of a million men.
You know, it doesn't make any sense really. I I keep wondering if some of these talks about opening the straight of muses, as you suggested before,
efforts by Trump merely to talk down the oil prices even temp even even temporarily just to yeah try to mitigate
some of the worst of this situation. Um I think I think you're probably very right. But you know how you know you can
you know you can fool fool me once, fool me twice. I mean how many times can they fool will they be able to fool the
markets by saying oh no no no we're going to close you know we're going to close almost you know there's a certain shelf life to this tactic.
That's the last brief question. What what do you think are the wider risks to Israel here? because you said uh that that a lot of the damages uh inflicted
on Israel are under reportported um because they seem to have bet more or less everything on this and even the US
partnership with Israel is now uh challenged by many key voices in the United States especially some f factions
of the America first crowd at least what it was supposed to mean are now very worried about this do you see this possibly becoming even an existential
threat for Israel because uh that seems like something even Iran should be very worried about given that this is a nuclear armed country which tends to
link its security to the concept of regional dominance.
Oh yes, I think I think that's exactly what we are going to see. that as I say
um you know the big what we seeing from Iran has been a carefully unfolding plan which has been thought through carefully
over years and so we're at the early stages and we only just in the last day or so
he you know the the the hypersonic batter missile that is steerable being released so that it has an extra motor
uh attached to it, a rocket motor, so that when it comes back into the atmosphere from going out into orbit at
Mac Um then they can steer it around air defense missiles and land with great
access. And some of these missiles are starting to have warheads of
Um, according to Israel, there are still only two real casualties and breast or
light injuries and nothing to be concerned about. But I mean the I think this is going to Yes. The question is when when does the psychology change?
When does the psyche suddenly think oh my god you know this is I mean a crisis
this is a catastrophe the wheels have come off you know what's next
and and it's interesting because you mentioned America it's exactly the same in the sense that America is actually
arriving there perhaps before Israelis are arriving at the same point because
it is becoming a a crisis in America between those that are um America first
in opposition to the Israeli first, the hardline neocons, you know, the Rubio's
and uh you know all all those voices on on on
the neocon front, Lindsey Grahams and others leave him. Um, so it's becoming a
a real division and with the closeness between the United States and Israel,
I mean, you know, in many many ways more than just closeness. I mean, a sort of integration. I mean, I think that is
going to feed back into Israel, too. I mean the the the the fracture that is taking place in America on this war I
think is feeding back into Israel as the moment Israel is just sticking as I said to you earlier in this beginning thing
is quite clear from what we have read um even today in the Hebrew press they are
saying very clearly it is so important keep alive the sense
Victory is imminent. Victory is in our hands. It's going to happen. The war is
progressing perfectly in order to if you like um keep Trump engaged in the war
and to keep America and to get American boots on the ground. That is the objective. Get American boots on the
ground. However, my own view with this personal view, I'm not in America, I'm in Europe, but my personal view is, you
know, if there is an absolute red line for the mega people, it will be boots on
the ground in the Middle East. I just think it will be politically catastrophic. Yet, I have to say it's
quite possible. I mean everything Trump says suggests that you know he is
contemplating this. I think it is you know in terms of strategy military
strategy sir but he does it I think it's possible that will happen. I think it will be catastrophic and therefore it'll
be catastrophic for Israel too. Uh and in Israel, I mean both, you know, Trump and Netanyahu have elections coming up.
They have to be winners.
They need to be sure that they are strong, that they've taken these, you know, Trump said the other day, he gave
the statement saying, you know, I'm the only, you know, we've had this problem for years and I'm the only president
and a president, a former president came to me and he said, you know, I envy what you've done because you're the only one
that could do it. I mean, it's a lie because I mean, all the past presidents have denied they ever said that to
Trump. um the the the three or four presidents said no no we we had said that to him but you know it's part of
Trump's persona you know only I had the nerve only I had the courage to do this and you know
something had been begging to be done these people are evil they're horrible we have to get rid of them all together
so we're going to obliterate them I mean you know this all may come apart I mean this is much more serious than the other
predictions he's got himself for America, for the Republicans, for the West, for Europe. Um, it's going to have a huge impact. I believe you put it.
Well, Trump also said that the Iranians told Witco that they would uh continue develop nuclear weapons no matter what,
which sounds like a weirdness. Again,
the de lies are getting ridiculous. But I I I very much agree with this assessment of Trump though because all his premise behind the America make
America great again is that America is in relative decline. It's weakening and he has he kind of blames the reasons for
this oversimplifying it as being simply weak leaders. So the return of America's greatness does require strength and he embodies more or less this strength
which is why he's indispensable for the revival of America. about uh this narrative still that we're winning, all
is going well. We listened to this for four years now in Ukraine and it was obvious nonsense from day one. So it's uh
you know it just suggests that they can spin it nonetheless because reality doesn't always have a chance against narratives. But there is something weak about the narrative control in this one.
At least in Ukraine they control the narrative to a great extent. Now it's a bit all over the place I feel. But
and you can understand it with his mindset. He can't understand. I mean,
you know, he says, you know, I mean, you know, here I am. I've done what everyone
said. You know, these awful people. I'm obliterating them. I'm bombing them. I'm bombing their, you know, their military.
I'm bombing their nuclear. I'm bombing their um missile capacities.
What's there not to like about it? Why are people questioning it or quering it?
Well, Mr. President, it might be because you've actually made a big mistake and have messed up. You've gone into a war without any preparations, unprepared,
without the logistics to last longer than a very short time based on your presumption that your intelligence was
faulty, that the Israelis probably gave you that that the Han was a house of cards ready to collapse at the first
little shock. Uh, and you will face the concept.
Well, Iraq was years ago supposed to finish off in a few weeks. Now, they also dealt a lot of death and
destruction. And now, of course, uh the US uh embassy in Baghdad is under fire.
Iraq overall is leaning much heavier towards Iran. It would otherwise have done if they would have let Saddam in power. So, uh yeah, killing a lot of
people doesn't necessarily translate into victory. So I guess how one assess victory is quite important but uh yeah everything is oversimplified I think.
Anyways uh as always thank you very much for being so generous generous with your time.
Well thank you thank you for allowing me to speak on your program. Um anyway
thank you