Iran LEVELS Israel, Trump PANICS as US Marines Target Kharg & Hormuz | Larry Johnson
Danny Haiphong
Streamed live 6 hours ago #iran #trump #israel
Former CIA analyst Larry Johnson comes on to discuss Iran's retaliation intensifying with coordinated attacks alongside Yemen as Trump panics his way into a ground operation. The war is reaching a point of no return, and we break it all down.
Transcript
Welcome everyone. Welcome back to the show. It's your host Danny Hiong. As you can see, I am joined by former CIA
analyst and geopolitical analyst and commentator Larry Johnson. Larry, good to see you again. Hey, I'm back.
Yeah, you're back and better than ever. Well,
well, I don't know about that, but you know, I'm still still on the right side of the grass. Hey, that's that's what counts. Well,
let's get to it. Larry, I first wanted to get to uh covering what's happened um overnight in Operation True Promise
Uh Iran has been absolutely pounding Israel uh in conjunction with Hezbollah and now Yemen uh as Israel's
interceptors are are virtually um either ineffective or not firing at all. I just want to pull this up because there have
been some very notable strikes especially in the uh Ramat Hov chemical complex near Dimona here a Turkish
journalist uh was there and he uh gave a report I won't play it because it is entirely in that language but here's the
summary from DDJ politics uh this was a massive blaze at this chemical complex some are speculating that there was also
a pharmaceutical company hit uh that there were multiple sites in the NGEV area where this is located also hit. And
then the big uh also uh news Larry is that Hifa was just smashed by an Iranian
missile or multiple missiles and that has uh uh you know caused stocks for this oil refinery in particular to go down % in just a matter of .
Larry, um I wanted to ask you about where you see uh the shape of this war now. uh you know, Iran hitting the Dimona area seems like a pretty big uh message.
The NGV area uh this uh complex, but it's not just this. Every single day now, and we're getting reports that the
interceptors for the entirety of the Gulf countries could be ranging now just in the hundreds left for the entire US stockpile. Where are we in this war? As
the uh threats keep coming from the US and the war continues, but uh these strikes seem to suggest it's not going very well. What's your thoughts?
Okay, so let's say you have a territory that's square miles or let's say let's give you a square miles.
Uh I have a territory that's uh square miles.
You're going to launch missiles at me a day and I'm going to launch missiles at you a day.
Who gets saturated first? We know it's uh the smaller one.
Yeah. Okay. Good. Yeah. So, we're all agreed. That's what's going to go on here. Uh you know, uh I'm not sure if
Iran is size the times the size of Israel or times the size of Israel,
but it's a lot lot bigger than Israel.
Uh Israel really only has two major cities, three major cities, Jerusalem,
Haifa, Tel Aviv. They've got other smaller places, but % of the population are in two of those cities.
It's not like they've got a dozen power plants scattered around the the country or a dozen oil refineries.
So, just from the standpoint of if each side keeps, you know, delivering roughly about the same amount of firepower on the other, the smaller ones going to run
out a lot sooner and not be able to continue the fight. That's what's going on. That's about as simple as I can put
it. Um, Israel, it hurts Israel more to
take out its one chemical factory than it does to take out one of chemical factories in Iran.
Iran's got more, let's call it,
strategic depth. Now, I'm not saying that Iran's not suffering, you know,
terrific damage and that it's awful, but let let's just be clear that
um the uh Israel's ability to withstand pain is a lot less than Iran's.
And then when you add in that the the the literal ass kicking that Israel is getting from Hezbollah in southern Lebanon,
you know, and and you've already had two one former Israeli chief of staff of the army and one current say, you know,
saying, "Hey, alarm bell. We got a three alarm fire here. We can't keep this up.
We're running out. We can't sustain this."
Uh, so when when your own military guys are blowing the whistle and raising the red flag, it lets you know you got trouble.
Yeah. The IDF chief of staff has recently sounded the alarm that uh it will it's on the verge of collapse in
the coming weeks uh if all of this continues. Right. I mean in this same uh salvo in the same uh wave of strikes by
Iran there was also reports that both Hezbollah and Onsarala were coordinating in various areas uh the Tel Aviv area,
northern Israel with Hezbollah and then in the Deona area and more south of Israel uh with Yemen. I mean uh there
was even reports that Yemen used the Palestine hypersonic missile which is an incredibly impressive uh weapon which
travels incredibly long distance in just about to hit Israel. Well, what's your thoughts? Yeah.
Yeah. The key is, you know, a lot of stuff gets labeled labeled hypersonic and it's not, you know, the the a true hypersonic missile is one that travels
in excess of Mach and and this is the key part can be maneuvered while in
flight. In other words, can fire additional engines and such to change its direction. Let me just, you know,
give a give a plug to Alistister Crook and his wife Alley. Uh Alyn's quite the
linguist and uh uh she she goes in and reads the Hebrew the Hebrew language press in Israel because they say a lot
of different things in Hebrew like talking amongst themselves as opposed to the English side and in her in her
latest piece she wrote of quoting from one of the articles former Israeli defense for Israeli Defense Force
Obudsman General Yets Brick said, quote, "What awaits Israel in the next round of the war is frightening."
Then uh the the current chief of staff of the Israeli army stood up and said,
"The IDF is collapsing." Now th those are not outside critics.
Those are men who either headed up the army played played a very senior role or
uh the um the current guy who's saying look this is this is dangerous we're we
can't keep this up and you know the sign of that is coming out of uh Lebanon.
In fact here's what the chief of staff told the security cabinet. He says, "The Israeli Defense Force is going to
implode. I'm raising red flags to you. The IDF now needs a conscription law, a reserve law, compulsory service
extension law. In a short time, the IDF will not be ready for its routine missions, and the reserve system will
not last." Now, just in the last week, I for which day it was. It may have been
last Friday or Saturday, uh, Hezbollah hit a column of Marava tanks. Those are
the big the big bad boys for the Israeli army and knocked out of them in one day. Uh, previously they had knocked out
eight on another day. Uh I I've consistently heard from multiple sources that since Israel started this offensive
into southern Lebanon, more than tanks have been uh destroyed or
rendered inert by Hezbollah. And you know, if you're if you're blowing up a tank, you got a crew inside that tank
and that crew, you know, suffers wounds or or even death. So Israel has got itself
They they've been unable to defeat Hamas. Hamas is still intact. And Israel,
despite having, you know, every conceivable military advantage in terms of numbers and quality of weapons and
types of weapon systems, has been unable to defeat Hamas.
And then they're now caught into another battle. It's it's it's it's worse than what happened in In they
lost. They were forced to retreat. Now they're suffering even greater losses against Hezbollah. And then they've
started this war with uh Iran and as we've seen in recent report, I think it was out of the Financial Times that %
of the Iranian missiles are getting through the the Israeli muchhood air
defense system is crap. Uh Iron Dome is uh is cracked as is uh uh David Sling.
The they're getting beaten.
Yeah. And Larry, what what effect is this having in the war in particular uh on the Israeli side, but maybe the
entire war effort as well? Because you know it is difficult to get good images.
there's been a lot of uh uh surveillance repression of these uh censorship of these images. Uh but every single day
this is happening as you said now it's uh you know eight of of these strikes are coming in uh that you know Iran always reports that there are millions
of Israelis going into shelters every single day. What impact is this actually having especially given that Iran is
getting more targeted and uh escalating the t escalating what they're striking?
Um literally I don't know nobody knows exactly where Iran where Israel's nuclear weapons are but they're hitting the area where many believe they are. Uh and and that's a big deal.
Yeah. The the karma is a terrible thing and Israel bought itself some bad karma
by killing all the children that is killed in Gaza and then by starting this war of aggression
uh the same kind of thing that Adolf Hitler did to Poland but starting a war of aggression against the people of Iran
and and now Iran is uh able to basically hit any target of once in Israel with little chance of it being stopped. And
so the you know maybe get used to let's not underestimate the ability of people to endure suffering.
Um you know from I'll just draw the parallel with the siege of the city of Vixsburg during the American Civil War.
There you took all a lot of these refined highclass southern ladies and they were living in caves dug into the
sight of the Mississippi Riverbank enduring months of shelling and attacks and and you know they stuck it out. So,
you can't dismiss the that the Israelis are going to try to tough it out, but uh is Israel's economy crumbles in the
process and they're they're not going to attract more immigrants coming into the
country uh because of the nature of the war. And then on top of it, just uh the the government of Netanyahu is so clumsy, so stupid when they shut down.
You know, it's one thing to uh anger the Muslims. We already know that they hate them. But then they did the same to the Christians, shutting access to the
Church of the Holy Supper during Holy Week from stretching from Palm Sunday,
which was yesterday, forward to Easter Sunday upcoming.
And uh so now they've got the Vatican mad at him, Italy mad at him, Catholics mad at him. Uh so uh Israel is uh
writing the you know the opposite book you know the one the one that was it Dale Carnegie wrote how to win friends
friends and influence people uh Israel's doing how to how to lose friends and have no influence with anybody.
Yeah. And uh Larry, I wanted to now ask you about the other side of the um
strikes that Iran is conducting in retaliation to the US and Israeli war regression. Now, this is on the Gulf side. Uh you know, Donald Trump said
that he wants Gulf countries to pay for uh the US war effort. Um uh he just said
this, but what's so it seems like it's going to be the Gulf that's going to need uh uh help paying for the aftermath
of what's been happening. According to Iranian sources, it says precision missiles uh just in the last as we speak
have hit the UAE, US command and control site. Uh the fifth US fifth fleet was struck by drones and of course Israel continues to get hit in various areas.
an Israeli owned container ship uh was just hit as well. But you know, the Gulf has been getting a beating and you know,
I can pull up the interceptor numbers now as you comment, Larry, but it's bad.
Uh interceptors fired in just a month uh supposedly in the Gulf uh re in the Gulf countries.
Yeah, you got to and stop and ask the question, what are they firing? Yeah,
because because there were only at the start, you know, at the end of
the total number of Pack missiles that had been produced for the Patriot was
maximum. Well, they used up a good number of those uh in, you know, at
least a thousand in Ukraine and then another thousand at least,last June during the -day war. So,
right off the bat, the United States entered this war with only, let's say,
of of PAC missiles, and those are capable of shooting down missiles.
So what what are they launching?
What I'm what I'm suggesting to you is there's some lying going on here and they they are gaslighting.
Yeah. And that's and gaslighting. This is from Bloomberg re uh re shared by DDJ politics uh talking about uh these
numbers that are being just officially uh reported used total in the stockpile. I mean that's that's bad in
and of itself Larry. I mean, that's bad in of itself. And I I'm curious, even at just those numbers, how long can this go on? Because Israel in the UAE, the Gulf
countries, they seem to be I see the videos, they seem to be using these in high numbers every single day. I mean, a dozen here, there. You just see it in one video. There's six to So,
what how long can this actually go? What happens then? It seems like the Trump administration,
Israel, they're not too concerned about it. At least in the public facing PR image. Well, they won't have they're I would argue right now they've exhausted.
They're out. There are no more Patriot Pack Three missiles to shoot. So,
they're probably d dipping into old stocks pack the pack two. I think they may even had a pack one. But those, you
know, all those do is make a nice pretty sight in the sky as they shoot forward uh lighting up the sky, but they're not necessarily going to be effective at intercepting.
And you know, Ted Pa has maintained all along that the number of people, the number of interceptions that have been claimed in previous uh wars or previous
attacks like this have been grossly exaggerated.
So, you know, the reality is none of the Gulf countries have an effective air defense anymore, and Iran
can hit them at will with what it wants and is doing so. the uh um the what one
of the Iranian spokesman said the other day in response to Trump's claim that he said that if you know if Iran doesn't
open the straight of Hormuz, US forces will target Iranian uh power plants.
Well, he he said uh the strait is only restricted to hostile traffic and it remains under Iran's control. Safe passage continues under strict rules.
But he says if the US strikes Iranian power plants, Iran's going to fully close the straight of Hormuz until damaged facilities are rebuilt. It'll
target all Israeli energy ICT and infrastructure assets.
It will destroy regional companies with US shareholders and it'll target power plants in countries hosting hosting US bases. And
that's exactly what it's doing. And after those the power plants were hit in Iran. So, you know, Iran Iran hasn't,
you know, they're not playing around and and they're not making like Trump making idle threats. They do what they say. If
you're going to bomb our desalinization plant, we're taking yours out. They took one out in Kuwait yesterday. % of the country's fresh water comes out of that plant. no longer.
So, um I think the first it's it's a race to see which which country in the Gulf falls, collapses first, disappears
into history. Will it be the United Arab Emirates or will it be Bahrain?
Uh right now I my my bet would be on Bahrain simply because is it is smaller. its one
ruler has abandoned the country and they have the largest contingent of Shia Muslims there. But uh Dubai is not far
behind. The United Arab Emirates doesn't really have a viable path forward to continue to exist as a country.
Yeah. And yet uh Larry uh again there's all I guess we say let's say let's divide into two uh Israel and the Gulf
countries they keep pressing forward. I mean, despite the the alarm bells being sounded by the chief of staff uh himself
in Israel, uh despite the massive damage uh I'm hearing tens of billions of dollars already across the Gulf uh in infrastructure,
uh despite this, countries like the UAE,
Saudi Arabia, they're all saying push forward and be sure that Iran can never do this again. And that's what they're
supposedly telling the United States. I see it as they're more getting told to say that so by the United States. But I'm curious on what your thoughts about
this is because unlike the -day war uh uh they they it seems like they keep going down further and further up the
escalation ladder regardless of the pain that they are uh experiencing.
So let let let's be clear about what kind of societies we're talking about.
Let's start with the United Arab Emirates.
They've got these massive skyscraper buildings, you know, some of the tallest in the world, very elaborately designed,
seemingly modern. Yet, every morning,
trucks have to pull into the basement of those buildings and fill up with human [ __ ] because they don't have a sewer system.
Okay, think about this. This highly modern, very supposedly modern, very advanced country has got a sewage system
that rivals that of India's where, you know, a car will come down the road every day and people will pile their feces into the back.
That's not a serious country.
And it the United Arab Emirates right now is without % of its income. income that came in from the export of oil, uh
the trade with the the free port and Jeabel Ali,
tourism, real estate, the um construction industry, financial industry,
it's all basically shut down. So, you know, and as as a consequence, you know,
Iran has been joking about it, saying that, well, they've at least eliminated prostitution from one of the major uh
Gulf Arab countries because once, you know, once the blockade was on and then and the very wealthy started getting the
hell out of there, uh all the hookers said, "Well, no more money to be made here." They, you know, headed back north to Ukraine where a lot of them are from.
So, um, UAE is right now is like an angry little Chihuahua, you know,
toothless, loud, vicious, but, you know,
doesn't have much of a bite. And, you know, you know, six weeks ago, it was prepared to go to war with uh Saudi Arabia. Now, the Saudis are crying on
each other's shoulders about big bad Iran.
And, you know, they shouldn't have picked the fight. In fact, Saudi Arabia had pledged it wasn't going to allow the US to use its territory and they did exactly that.
None of these countries have an organic political base.
They're all these, you know, from one tribe that happened to dominate the other tribes and then they establish like the Saudis establish themselves as,
oh, we're the royal house of Sad, we're the monarchy. Yeah, give me a break. You know, you guys were a bunch of you're
just camping out in the desert for your until you found oil and all of a sudden oil made you smart, made you
intelligent. I don't think so. So, uh the the power the power of the dollar is
becoming weaker for them. M and and this is where you know think of it there there are only two countries there in
that whole Gulf region that elect their political leaders. One is Iraq the other is Iran.
Yeah, great points, Larry. And uh you know, now this gets into I think what we are seeing uh from the Trump administration, which is uh panic masked as aggression, as increasing aggression,
especially on the front of a potential ground operation or multiple operations. Of course, you have Israel, Channel
uh they seem to often be the megaphone for what's going to happen uh for the United States's uh military front. They
say the US has set for a ground invasion to quote unquote open the straight of hormuz with Israeli intelligence
intelligence support. And the Wall Street Journal, Larry, is reporting that uh Trump is weighing the uh a military
operation on the ground of Iran to extract pounds of uranium from Iran. And this comes as you probably saw
these comments from Trump uh before we came on this program, Larry, where he is now making uh very contradictory claims
as he often does. He's talking to a new and better regime right now. Regime change has already happened according to
him. And that if the deal isn't going to be uh made soon between Iran and the US that he is going to end the lovely stay
in Iran by obliterating all of their electron electric plants, oil wells, Car Island, on and on. So Larry, what do you
make of this uh these flurry of developments on the ground operation side? because there's been a lot of buildup to this, many days of reports of the forces arriving, the Marines,
paratroopers. Now, um your thoughts about this?
Well, what's the point? I mean, what Okay. Um let's go with the Car Island scenario
now. Recall what Donald Trump and his Secretary of Treasury, Scott Bessant,
did uh three weeks ago. They lifted all of the oil sanctions on Iran.
Okay, Danny, here's your chance. Why did they do that? You tell me, Larry.
Well, did did did did they want to cut the supply of oil or increase the supply of oil?
They close it straight over Hormuz, you mean?
No. No. So, when they lifted the sanctions on Yeah. They wanted to increase the supply of oil.
Okay. So let's I want you to follow through the logic here. So and and they wanted to increase the supply of oil
because they wanted to try to keep the price of oil low recognizing that if rising prices of oil are going to cost
everybody more money. All right. So now what is he proposing to do with Car Island? He's going to blow up their oil
wells and basically reduce the supply of oil. Oh, okay.
I get it. I think it's completely contradictory or they're Larry, before you before you
go on, I was just going to say he's already said he was going to do that and it already had a massively negative effect on oil prices in the sense that they went up, but continued.
Yeah. So,
um that's the objective to inflict as much damage on Car Island so it can't pump any more oil. Or he's also said,
"No, no, no. I want to get control. I want to control all the Iranian oil."
Okay, great. You got all that control up there in Card. How do you get it out of the straight of Hormuz? How do you get it out of the Persian Gulf?
You know, uh, attach,
you know, bags of oil to dolphins and have them swimming out. Uh so um it does
nothing to open the straight of Hormuz which then brings you back say okay so you're going to have to account a ground force to somehow take the straight of
Hormuz except how does a ground force take the straight of Hormuse? Answer is it doesn't
what to open the straight of Hormuz basically you're going to have to ensure that there are no mines. So, you're going to sweep up all the mines.
That there are no underwater mini submarines with torpedoes.
That there are no underwater marine drones that can be maneuvered and crash into your ships and blow them out of the
water. That there are no regular drones above ground that can be launched and reached the straight of Hormuse.
that there are no artillery pieces and shore guns that can reach out and hit ships in the in that region
and that there are no missiles that can hit. So explain to me how
putting guys into this chemish island how that stops any of that. It doesn't.
That's the point.
So you got to step back and say okay what is the mission you know you know you don't have to be Clausowitz or SunSu
or some advanced military strategist to figure this stuff out just just ask yourself the simple question what is it
we're trying to accomplish other than just look good and say hey we're you know like Douglas MacArthur
did in his landings at Lee Golf where they filmed takes, you know, they wanted to get
him coming off the shore and he he he made sure they they reshot it over and over and over until they had the right take. Well, this is not, you know, this
is not a PR stunt is what is the actual military consequence. Uh and I draw the
parallel with the US war in the Pacific where the very first war battle we
fought on land where we use ground forces was Guad Canal and the reason they se the mission was seize this island,
prevent the Japanese from being able to use it to launch air strikes on any ships in the region because this is near
New Zealand and Australia. And it was to get control, if you will, of the air by using that that island as an aircraft
carrier. So that was that was the military objective. And we did we achieved that. That was clear. That's what you're trying to do.
But you step back here and say, "Okay,
what the hell are we trying to do on the ground? What's the military objective?"
You know, piss off the Iranians because that's really what it's going to do. Oh,
and put put our soldiers in harms away so they're more likely to be killed and wounded. Yeah, that's going to happen,
too. So, uh, do I think Donald Trump is going to do this? Yes, I do. I I I think
he's got a he's got enough crazy people around him encourage who don't understand a damn thing about logistics
and military capabilities and that they're going to go ahead and encourage him to do this. And then it's going to be some unfortunate uh sailors, marines,
uh or army personnel that are going to pay the price. Yeah. Iran is saying uh come closer.
They're releasing Lego videos. They're releasing statements to their own media.
The Iranian military is videos of soldiers on the shores of the Gulf, Persian Gulf, saying come, you know,
come closer. We're waiting for you. I mean I mean there's there's no it doesn't seem like there's any fear at least from what we can gather of
anything like this and the idea Larry of of of seizing a thousand what is that a thousand pounds of uranium from Iran I
mean how does it even happen without how does it even happen I don't know how well
um I actually worked on an exercise to do that very thing but it's been about years ago so first of All you got to
look at to get there. It these the sites where the uranium enriched uranium is
stored is in the interior of Iran. So your first challenge is how to get
there. These helicopters like the Shinook or the Blackhawk, those would be the two most likely ones that would
be used. or uh if you you could use a a Caircraft, but again that's assuming
you can fly over Iran without getting shot down. And we've already seen that that's not possible.
Uh so one of the to you know particularly if you have to go miles inside Iran to get one of to get to one
of these sites well a plane has to go in in advance to drop off fuel bladders.
You know these are like big giant trash bags only huge trash huge bags filled
with aviation fuel so that the plane helicopters can land get refilled and then take off to get to the site. So
once you get to the site and as we saw with the you know even the raid the to get bin Laden in Pakistan I mean that
thing was cooked from the inside. We had we had pre-coordinated with the Pakistanis what we're going to do. They turned off lights in the valley. They
basically made sure that there was no uh no chance that the United States would
face opposition. Well, uh and even with that, there were problems. One of the helicopters had a catastrophic uh
accident and and you know, crashed into a wall. So, but let's say you get there
and you know places are going to be heavily defended and you try to fight your way through. Let's say you can fight your way through, but you're going to take enormous losses. United States is going to take significant casualties.
That was the lesson we, you know, that was uh the outcome of the exercise I worked on. It was unacceptable losses.
But then once you get that, then you've got to package up that thousand pounds and maybe of of uranium in something that's shielded,
which you know that may add another lb to lb. All of a sudden, you're talking with some real weight and then
you got to make sure you got the helicopter that can handle it. And so you're going to have to have an additional helicopter just to haul something like that. So I mean it's
just, you know, the raid to recover nuclear material. It it's a great Hollywood script as long as you sus
suspend all reality with respect to the air requirements for aircraft to get from point A to point B and assume that
you don't have any accidents and that uh you know we we've had too many of these experiences over the years where
you know the the hostage rescue attempt in uh for to get the US hostages out of Iran that was called Eagle claw
that one of the planes ran into one of the helicopters out in the desert, you know, caught on fire, killed uh I I
think it killed six people. U and a friend of mine, good friend of mine was one of the young army rangers on that
mission. He was providing perimeter security uh when that happened. Um then we jump ahead to the Benaden thing.
You know, one of the helicopters crashed.
So the the odds you're going to have perfect functioning equipment, great weather, nobody does anything stupid
pretty low. Uh so you always plan for you know there's going to be a screw up here somewhere
and and then at the end so you take a thousand pounds of enriched uranium then what? Because you got to shield it in
such a way so you don't radiation sick get you know irradiate all your team members. Very good.
Yeah. This this just Are they coming in with hazmat suits? I mean I I mean well they'd have to not just a h you
know hazmat suits not going to protect you against radiation?
You know you got to have shielding that pre prevents that radiation from penetrating. And that's why you've got to get it into containers that are
protected that you can but then you can move with three or four guys.
U you know uh lb four guys ain't moving.
Um you know that's over uh you know
lb a piece or lb a piece.
Yeah. But so it's just yeah doesn't make sense.
And then you know Larry is Iran waiting for this? I I assume that there's been major preparations given how Iran is
talking given how long I mean it takes a while for all all these forces to have gotten to the Middle East and now they have to prepare for an operation. So
this has been many many weeks in the making. Not to mention that I'm sure Iran has been in their videos, in their statements, they constantly say that they've been preparing for this for
years for a US ground attack. So, what happens then when Iran responds? Because I assume that uh they will be very aware
when uh US paratroopers or Marines or whoever is uh making landing on their soil.
Uh well, it depends on who's telling the story. Uh if it's the American briefer saying, "Oh, you know, the Iranians are weak.
They're a bunch of wimps. They're they're terrible at fighting. They'll run away, so we won't expect any opposition."
Or the Iranians will say, "Yeah, we're waiting for them. They'll they'll they'll set up and and ambush us." Uh so
you know that's that's the danger here that we we've talked so much about it
and it's been so much out in the open that you know you you've eliminated the element of
surprise whatsoever. Now I I can't you know you should always keep in mind that perhaps the discussions about Car Island
and uh Kamesh Island and or going after a nuclear site maybe those are deliberately being put out there in
order to disguise some other op. that I for the life of me can't imagine what that other op would be uh in terms of if
you come back to say what is it we're trying to accomplish if we're trying to accomplish the
decapitation of the Iranian regime um that still doesn't guarantee that there
is a regime replacement the the depth of support for the Iranian the Islamic Republic appears to be quite deep and
quite broad What are they going to do? Take an island, bond Abos or a port, bond Abos,
you know. So, it's just these guys are so worried about the propaganda aspect
of this for domestic political control that they they toss operational security
for potential miss people going on such missions out the window.
Yeah. Yeah. And uh I imagine that a lot of of the push to uh um you know
speed up a a ground attack, a ground assault on Iran has a lot to do, as we've been hearing day after day, Larry,
on the energy markets and what's been going on there.
Yeah. Uh well uh Bloomberg just reported uh and concluded that not only is Iran's grip on the straight of Hormuz tighter
even after a month of the war, but that this is marks the biggest strategic victory in the war thus far. And I
wanted to show a a a graph that kind of gets to a a major I think uh reality
that's not being acknowledged of by the mainstream media by the west by the Trump administration of course is that
Iranian oil sales are not only up but uh they are if we look at this this is uh uh China and where the oil is going to
China it's both Iranian oil Russian oil and Venezuelan oil uh that's being stored uh you know in the south China
eastern China Sea going uh to China I I mean in effect Iran has been making more money and they forced the United States
to relieve sanctions. what has been the true impact of the closure of the straight of horm because every time Donald Trump talks about it we we don't
have it there's nothing um you know there's we don't trade in that much through the straight of hor so it
doesn't really affect us but it seems like it's having a major effect on the markets and we haven't even gotten to Yemen yet which has the ability at any
point to close the Baband straight which I imagine would uh make things even worse for the oil markets but your your assessment Larry of this so So, you you're you're an urban kid,
right? You don't have a car or do you have a car?
No. My Well, my wife has a car. I don't have a car, but we uh we're both city kids, but she does have a car.
Yeah. Okay. But And has she been having to pay more gas to fill that thing up?
Yeah. Well, we were just in California and the gas was $a uh a gallon. Lucky we didn't have to we didn't have to do
family and they uh you know, we drove a little bit with them, but Yeah. No. Really bad. really bad.
So, did you drive cross country to California?
No, no, we flew but um and are really expensive, but when we were in California, we drove. Yeah,
we rented a car. Okay. Um so that's that's the number one thing that's hitting Americans right now is that that
price of oil has gone up and so the price of gas as as does the price of diesel. Diesel's up. Like, you know, if
gas has gone up a dollar, diesel's gone up twice that, $
Well, then you look around you at everything that hauls food, hauls all
the essentials of life, those are trucks running on diesel. Right now, we haven't gotten to the age where uh Elon Musk
electronic electric trucks are running the, you know, ruling the roads.
But uh with that kind of uh impact on the economy, it's only going to get
worse. The the inflation is going to go up, not down. And then we're we're stuck
in a situation where the economy is slowing, people are losing jobs,
but the prices are going up. That's called stagflation. Last time we had a major battle with this was in the s
back when I was in college and just starting out in life. Uh so it's something that we haven't seen for well
over years. Uh is is going to be hitting us and and and it's also it's hitting globally.
So you know the price of fuel is going up, the price of transportation dramatically going up. uh fertilizer
prices dramatically going up and uh you know this this is not
costfree. It means the country is going to be doing without certain things and then you got
shortages in the supply chain on top of it. So this what what Iran achieved in
tightening putting controls on the products that come out of the Persian Gulf was it essentially set off a bomb.
It's like setting off a bomb on board a plane. It's exploded it. The plane's going to crash because it it's not just
affecting the oil sector. It's affecting the lit liquid natural gas sector which
that has secondary tertiary effects into other activities
and then um you know it's affected the fertilizer market uh by raising costs dramatically for
fertilizer uh because ura is processed out of some of the petrochemical uh plants. Helium
apparently critical for the production of uh computer chips. I didn't know that but now I do. Um
and sulfuric acid which is you know that that's a major let's call it a precursor chemical that's involved with uh you
know generating uh uh nuclear fuel out of uranium. So the the lot of secondary
tertiary consequences from this decision to close the Gulf that nobody really thought through or you know I'm sure you
had never read an article on it. Uh but now that it's happening all of a sudden people are realizing how dependent they
are upon that Persian Gulf to handle the flow of oil and everything else.
Yeah. And uh Larry, what does the entrance of Yemen now into the war?
There's not a lot of panic about Yemen's capabilities adding on to Iran's and the let's say the missile arena and uh
attacks on Israel and perhaps even the Gulf if it gets to that point, but more so it's all focused on all across Axios,
Bloomberg, they're all talking about uh the Baba Mendum Strait. Uh so uh what does Yemen's entrance in the war mean
for uh you know the coming days and weeks and uh uh what do you expect?
Well, actually not a lot from the standpoint of number one uh the freedom of navigation in the Red Sea has not not been reestablished since December of
So it's been limited. So no ships going to Israel uh and no Israeli ships allowed to pass. Uh the the Houthies
have been willing to allow other ships to sail in and out, but a lot of those ships have declined and they'll go down around the Horn of Africa simply because
their insurance companies tell you if you go through the Red Sea, we're not covering you. Too dangerous.
So, um it's I think what what you're seeing right now is more of a symbolic gesture by the Houthies. Hey, we're, you
know, we're in solidarity with our brothers and sisters in Iran and elsewhere. Um, now if you get them, um,
if they get a big fat juicy target,
they'll take it and then they've already launched some missiles. But it it's not going to dramatically change the face of
the war because the key the vital sector is u, you know, Red Sea's already
basically closed. The one that is got everybody going crazy is the straight of Hormuz.
Yeah. Yeah. And uh I've been asking everyone this, Larry, what have you made of the uh overall regional picture on
the side of the axis of resistance now that we are over a month into this war? Because we touched briefly on Hezbollah.
I believe the number now is between to uh Israeli marava tanks destroyed. But there's heavy fighting all across uh they're firing advanced
missiles. They're confronting uh the Israeli occupation army uh uh directly as well. And then uh the Iraqi
resistance has been a major force in in Iraq during this time. Uh and then of course we have Ensar, we have uh and of
course the big one Iran who uh was forced to defend itself from the aggression immediately and initially. So
what has been your uh uh take on on this moment now that we've seen how it's transpired especially regionally on the side of the ISIS of resistance?
Well um number one the Gulf Gulf Arabs are dying. Uh I I think is a real question whether United Arab Emirates
and uh the government in Bahrain will exist in a year. uh they may be gone
within in months uh because there's no there there
um populations like uh Qatar uh Kuwait uh I I anticipate that uh Iraq
will take control of Kuwait within the year as this war progresses because I don't see this war slackening off and I
think the alliance between Iran and Iraq will continue to grow stronger not weaker. Um,
so the when you look at like Saudi Arabia, the Kingdom of the Sauds,
um, about % of the people that quote live there, they're indentured servants.
They're not they're not living there because they're going, "Damn, is this Saudi Arabia a cool place to live or what?"
you know, with the the restrictions they have on alcohol, the restrictions they have on women, what women can do, what women can't do. Uh Iran, by contrast, is
far far more open and and lacks on those issues compared to the Saudis.
U so the the Saudis because all of these countries lack a political constituency.
They they lack uh the concept of national identity.
because you know whether they bring in a soccer team or whatever, they're always hiring outsiders to come do their [ __ ]
for them because they can't do anything on their own.
So this uh what what Iran is doing is basically restructuring
the political power setup there in the Persian Gulf. And it would not surprise
me to see uh Turkeykey's Erdogan want to work closely with the Iranians in doing that.
Yeah. Yeah. I mean, and and then uh finally, Larry, we get into the bigger uh picture here. Um what have you made?
You know, not only has China made out very well uh with regards to uh Iranian
sources are showing that uh they're saying that uh they are letting ships through the straight of Hormuz. It's just that they're Chinese tankers,
affiliated tankers and they're and they're paying the toll. Yes. Yeah. Which Marco Rubio said never is going to happen, but
Larry, I think it's already happening from what I've seen. So um how does this affect over all this push toward the multipolar world the dollar? Uh there
was one graph I saw that showed that uh the percentage of reserves held in the dollar as of had already been plum
plummeting and it's getting worse. Does this make things worse? Uh the energy crisis that we're seeing um and uh what
is it what does it mean for the changing world order? Well, let's say worse for who? Okay. Mhm.
Uh it is going to put us create an inflationary spike across the board. Uh
it will then the price will be so high for oil it will increase and in incentivize people to buy electric vehicles.
Uh and the number one country on that front that makes electric vehicles is China.
So you got a shift uh to electric vehicles at least in a lot of the urban areas. I'm not sure it'll be it'll make sense for some of the rural or remote
areas. Um it is going to uh enrich as you said both Iran and Russia and and I
would expect other other OPEC countries that also produce oil like u uh Nigeria.
uh there may be um you know it'll be bene it'll be a boon for Venezuela but again they're limited because their
infrastructure is such they can only get out let's say a million barrels a day so they're not drawing out huge quant quantities
um th this is um what what I argue
we're witnessing the emergence of an entirely new economic political ical order.
In the same way that uh uh your your father or mother or grandmother,
grandfather witnessed the emergence of the United Nations, the merchants of the Breton the
emergence of the Breton Woods financial system and uh that that basically teed up the
United States to be the dominant power in the world followed by Russia and it but it wasn't until too that when
Nixon opened China with uh uh his initiative that China came out of the cultural revolution days and started in
on the capitalist revolution days and just in a incredible incredible
transformation of society in years China has become the most modern most industrialized society in the world and
they're running rings around the United States in terms using robots to produce a whole variety
of things. So this um this war in Iran is sort of a natural outcome of that because Iran is going to play a critical
role in this new economy and particularly in solidifying the north south corridor that runs from Russia to
the Caspian Sea all the way down through Iran through Tehran down to Chavahar.
So this is um we are witnessing something consequential. Remember the the League of Nations which was set up
to be you know to try to keep nations from going to war.
I think its last day in existence was like April something of
I mean it was completely irrelevant during the war. And we and that's what we're seeing now that uh the United Nations is completely irrelevant.
You know, you get UN personnel care killed, who cares? UN Security Council passes a resolution and you know, the
countries if they don't like it, they just wipe their ass with it and move on.
So, you've got uh you've got that breakdown. And then we've also got
a a a I'll call it a a scientific and cultural gap that's there's both an economic and a military dimension.
U and so the the question is this what do skyscraping office buildings have in common with US aircraft carriers?
What? They're they're both they're both irrelevant for the st century.
I mean, think of it this way. You've got a hundredstory office building, but your people can all work from home. They don't need to go to the office.
So, why have that building then? So,
that's why so many of these buildings now are sitting empty.
They were built during an era when the model was, hey, go to the office and you know, you know, you have your office
Christmas parties and people people get blackmail material on each other. Um,
the the same with an aircraft carrier that, you know, seemed seemed like a great idea in the th century when
there weren't hypersonic missiles. And so you could you could sail in fairly close to a coast of a country and then launch your air missions and intimidate the hell out of them by bombing them.
But now you got to stay maybe a thousand miles offshore to to avoid getting hit with a hypersonic missile, which then sort of
defeats the the idea of carrying those airplanes because the airplanes only have a mile range. So if you're a
thousand miles off, they can't even get halfway to the mainland where you want them to go without getting refueled.
So that's we're living in a changing world. The technology is changing it. AI is changing it. The Russia and China,
the rise is as genuine military powers now change the whole equation. Yeah. Yeah,
definitely. And uh we didn't even get to uh the fact that uh these aircraft carriers, Larry, we have one of them
that has been completely taken out of service uh in this war, the Gerald Ford, which you were on this show, I believe, with our friend uh Colonel Wilkerson.
And we were talking about the plumbing problems that were happening there. And then suddenly there's a massive so-called laundry fire, which then
Donald Trump said, "This isn't a laundry fire. This is We were actually fired upon many times." He said this to his
financier buddies. So this is um you know this is indeed a crisis. Larry,
anything you want to close with now as we uh end the program? Anything we didn't cover? Uh I'll leave it to you.
Well, we'll watch you know watching Donald Trump is like watching a Wimbledon tennis match where the same player plays himself
back and forth, back and forth, back and it's on both sides of the net. Uh and it's not going to get any better. Uh, I worry. Um,
you know, I I I I received signs out of Moscow. I was supposed to go there middle of April and and with Pepe
Escobar, we were both told that this meeting, the session we were going to have had been cancelled because there's
a there's a expectation out of the Kremlin that there's going to be a dramatic escalation of this war with Iran.
So, we'll see.
Yeah. Yeah, we will see. Well, we'll head out of here together. I want to thank everybody who gave a super chat um and became members. So many of you. I
really appreciate it. Hit the like button before you go. Be sure to follow Larry at sonarcom.
I'll be back tomorrow, noon Eastern time with our friend uh Stas Privik. And until then, everybody, bye-bye.
See you. Bye-bye.






