https://x.com/arashreisi/status/2040885998817591779 Arash Reisinezhad @arashreisi Emerging evidence suggests that U.S. operations south of Isfahan (marked in red on the map) were unrelated to any pilot rescue mission.
The downed American pilot was reportedly located in southwest Iran, near Kohgiluyeh and Boyer-Ahmad Province (marked in blue on the map), not central Iran.
Instead, this appears to have been a failed heliborne insertion aimed at locating uranium within Iran.
The recent dismissal of seasoned U.S. generals may not be coincidental; it may reflect internal resistance to such high-risk operations.
Given Iran’s increasingly effective air defense, and the apparent failure of this mission, the viability of future heliborne incursions deep into Iranian territory is now in serious doubt and may ultimately be abandoned.
[X]
Arash Reisinezhad @arashreisi Firing top U.S. generals is not routine; rather it signals resistance inside the military to a ground invasion of Iran. When seasoned commanders are sidelined, it suggests the push for escalation is political, not strategic.
History is clear: Ignore the counsel of experienced generals, and failure may follow!
[x] Last edited 10:53 AM · Apr 3, 2026
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Was Pilot Rescue A Nuclear Seizure PLOT Gone Wrong? Breaking Points Apr 6, 2026
Krystal and Saagar discuss the rescue operation of the downed US pilot in Iran.
US satellite firm Planet Labs announces blackout on war on Iran images. Company says move amid US-Israel war on Iran comes after a request from the US government. by AFP and Reuters 5 April 2026
Satellite imaging company Planet Labs has said it will indefinitely withhold visuals of Iran and the region of conflict in the Middle East to comply with a request from United States President Donald Trump’s administration.
The US company announced the decision in an email to customers on Saturday, with news agencies quoting it as saying the government had asked satellite imagery providers to impose an “indefinite withhold of imagery”.
The restriction expands upon a 14-day delay on imagery of the Middle East that Planet Labs implemented last month, which extended an initial 96-hour delay, a move the firm said was meant to prevent adversaries from using the imagery to attack the US and its allies.
Planet Labs said it will withhold imagery dating back to March 9 and that it expects the policy to remain in effect until the end of the war, which began on February 28 when the US and Israel launched aerial attacks against Iran. The conflict has since spread across the region, with Iran firing missile and drone barrages at Israel and US assets, as well as civilian infrastructure across the Gulf.
Planet Labs, which was founded in 2010 by former NASA scientists, said in its email to customers that it would switch to a “managed distribution of images” deemed not to pose a risk to safety.
Under a new system, Planet Labs will release imagery on a case-by-case basis for urgent, mission-critical requirements or in the public interest.
“These are extraordinary circumstances, and we are doing all we can to balance the needs of all our stakeholders,” the California-based company was quoted as saying.
Military uses of satellite technology include target identification, weapons guidance, missile tracking and communications. Some space specialists say Iran could be accessing commercial imagery, including pictures obtained via US adversaries. Satellite images also help journalists and academics studying hard-to-reach places.
Iran AMBUSHES US Special Ops, Trump BEGS for 45-Day Ceasefire | Jon Elmer & Justin Podur Danny Haiphong Apr 6, 2026
Iran just exposed a major US ground operation masquerading as a rescue operation of the F-15 pilot and the consequences are devastating. Now Trump is responding with pleas for 45-day ceasefire while escalating the war rhetorically as Iran hits back for the 98th wave of Operation True Promise 4. Jon Elmer of the Resistance Report and Justin Podur of the anti-Empire project join the show to break down the latest military updates.
Transcript
Welcome everyone. Welcome back to the show. It's your host Danny Hi Fong and I am glad to announce that I have for the first time on the show John Elmer from the Resistance Report at Electronic Antifa and returning guest Justin Podor at the Anti-Empire Project. We have a lot to get to. So gentlemen, thanks so much for joining me today. Thanks for having us. Yeah, it's our pleasure. Yeah. Well, uh speaking of Resistance Report, John, how about we get started with you? I wanted to uh first play what Donald Trump said about this operation, the so-called rescue operation now shrouded in all kinds of I wouldn't even say mystery anymore, just v various uh reports on what actually happened there. We do know that Iran did undertake an ambush of these US special forces attempting to either rescue the pilot uh who was down or colonel or uh steal the uranium or both. We you know I want your take on this but here is what Donald Trump said about the uh uh the size of the operation and then I want to get your uh uh take on uh what exactly happened here and and why is it significant. Here we go. The second rescue mission involved aircraft, including four bombers, fighters, refueling tankers, rescue aircraft, and more. We were bringing them all over and a lot of it was subtrauge. So, John, I mean, that's a lot of aircraft and they did lose some aircraft, which I will uh pull up in as you're talking, but uh John, what what exactly happened here? How did Iran respond to this? What was the actually the nature of this operation in your assessment? Yeah, I mean, I think there's still obviously a lot we don't know, but from what we do know, um the the F-was shot down by Iranian air defenses. Um both pilots ejected and ended up in roughly the same area. Um over the course of several hours on the first day in the daylight um the uh US attempted the rescue operation and in doing that um basically got lit up. They lost the AWarthog that uh crash landed in uh in Kuwait. They lost a couple of Blackhawk helicopters. um they lost a couple of reapers in that operation and they failed and withdrew from that. And then what appears to hap has uh happened is that they went back the next day under the cover of darkness and that gives obviously the United States a massive advantage given um their capabilities. Um, and they successfully apparently got the uh weapons officer uh who was, you know, I think a lot of the story um that's left out is that like he was in communication with the US from the time that he goes down. He's got a transponder. They knew where he was. He was in he moved into the mountains. Um that was in a valley. What you're looking at there on the screen is in the valley. um he moved up into the mountains and was in full communication with the US and so um and the US didn't let anyone get within you know miles of the of the scene so it just isn't as heroic a story as is being u told you know the US has all the advantage in this situation I mean even just like talking about the troops that go in there the amount of you know the two Cs that were combat search and rescue Cs. Um they come in with special forces um who are trained to do this kind of operation all year round all you know for the last decade. They're the most uh elite trained troops in the US military and they have two million service members to call upon to cull um to get these in these um you know these special forces that could be inserted into this. Um, so given all of those advantages, the fact that they um apparently needed to blow up their um the HC-s before they left, blow up the helicopters before they left cuz they were stuck in the mud. I mean, I don't know, that story doesn't seem um super strong. I imagine there's going to be a lot more that we learn in the coming days. Um, but yeah, when you take a look at the resources that the US had and and that Trump quote that you played, he was saying that they literally took all of their resources in the region and turned them towards this single operation in the southwest of Iran in the mountains um away from cities. Um so a lot of the complexity of the operation um it kind of washes away when you when you see that analysis. Um so they did something that they are you know pretty good at doing both because of the resources um that they have and because of the training that they have uh you know for their permanent war state. H well uh Justin I wanted to uh now uh let's play uh the Iranian take and I'm actually going to read it because it's the military spokesperson of the RGC uh giving Iran's take of what happened here um mute it here uh and read it. So following the desperate efforts of the US terrorist army um and he continues to carry out a rescue operation for the pilot of its downed fighter jet. Several enemy aircraft entered our beloved country of Iran in the early hours of April th, A number of these aircraft uh including two Ctransport planes, military transport planes and two Blackhawk helicopters were hit and forced to make emergency landings in an area south of Isfahan. So, uh, a lot of people have been making note of the location, Isfahan, as possibly a staging ground of a, uh, an operation to, uh, do what Trump has been and the administration has been plotting, which is to seize the uranium from, uh, a nuclear site, uh, like Isfahan. And then there's was this uh, that I want you to comment on if you saw it. Uh it hasn't it hasn't been I don't think confirmed yet but this is from uh Iranian media RT reporting that someone named Amanda Ryder uh her ID her US Air Force ID was recovered from the wreckage and an Israeli visa was found. Uh hold on one second. Let me pull that up here. Here it is. Uh the ID of the US Air Force's Amanda Ryder was recovered from an aircraft wreckage after the rescue mission an Israeli visa was found. So Justin, your comments. What do you think is going on here? Um, you know, Ron says they took American casualties. They saw it with their own eyes. But, uh, the US, Trump, Hegseth, they came out today and said God is good. Everything went very smoothly other than blowing up the aircraft as John noted. Yeah, we we don't have um a lot of really high quality information. So, we do have to use logic here um where we can and I I don't see how that much destruction could happen with manned aircraft and soldiers and have no one die. But, and I also we also have to remember that according to American sources, virtually nobody has died ever fighting Iran. Um there always injuries uh there are lots of injuries and then people die in accidents afterwards. So I you know this one I I do think that if there were um a lot of US casualties there would be that that graveyard of of aircraft that we saw would have had lots of dead bodies as well unless the Iranians took them away. But it's it's uh what the the the patterns that I've seen so far are that Iranians more or less have been telling the truth as they've seen it. Um and and when they before this rescue operation concluded, I saw a message from I think one of the Iranian um sources where they said, "If we did have them, we wouldn't tell you." So it was sort of like that even that's truthful in a way, right? They're sort of like, "We're not going to tell you." Um, but I don't I don't see them like manipulating the the site in that way or or anything like that. I mean, um, so I I don't know if there were huge casualties that the Americans are saying uh didn't happen. I do think, you know, if they wanted to, because we did hear a little bit about this uranium uh snatch plan. Um, the idea was, as I heard it was that they were going to go snatch the uranium, uh, build a runway and fly out. I guess they found this runway near Isfahan, so that that solves their runway problem. Um, but, uh, I it still seems it seems like a big force, too big for a rescue, but it seems too small for a uranium snatch. So, I I think maybe they were just trying to build a base. Like the first step of a ground war is to um you know, set up a base somewhere where you could then start loading tons of other stuff and material and and maybe they you know they did their map, they analyzed their maps and they were like here's a runway. We can turn this into a base and we can go from here. And you know, the other the other consideration like John was saying, you know, the the the the dream of like a go in and do something and get out like that's the that's the model that they're going on. They were really pleased with how that went in Venezuela presumably. Um because Venezuela was preparing for a long guerilla war against an occupation and the uh the the Americans just went in for a couple seconds and left. So leaving the Venezuelans with nobody to really fight and no nothing to get going. And um so the Iranian um the Iranian defense plan is presumably also like they have millions of men. They they have people ready to fight. Uh they know the Americans very well. They have uh lots of equipment, but they they have a gigantic area to defend, too. So they're not going to be there in numbers in every every corner where the Americans can fly to. It's going to take them a while to get there. Maybe a lot of them would have to drive there. You know, the drones would get there first. So you know, some remote corner where the Americans are trying to set something up and get it going and it takes the Iranians a while to get there and then there's a battle and the Americans withdraw. That that all makes perfect sense to me in terms of what happened. None of the stuff about pilots and rescues and Amanda's um I mean Amanda Ryder like it's a bit on the nose in terms of like making fun of the name and stuff, right? Like like Amanda, it's a real person supposedly. Did the Americans leave that there? I don't know that the whole thing is weird to me. Like like recovering the pass like the recovered passports after Like how how does there an ID? Like, did she why'd she bring her ID on a on a mission? And I don't That's always the question. I don't understand it. Is that what you do? I don't know. I I Yeah. No. Great. Well, uh I think those are really good questions. And uh John, I mean, if what Justin is saying is true, and there's a lot of I think uh good points to follow there uh toward uh the truth of the matter, uh that means the US failed dramatically because there is no forward operating base coming out of Iran after this operation and the US has refused to acknowledge any such thing. Uh this is just a heroic operation to rescue one guy who happened to be a colonel with what many say a much higher ranking than what you would normally take on a standard mission um that he was on. But then you know uh there's all this talk about this being an operation. Many people are saying that this is a fake story that simply this is about stealing the uranium and making that forward operating base. So, John, your final your comments on this. I mean, you know, uh, how did Iran in particular, uh, hit back so hard because this is being underestimated? The Trump administration is saying they didn't do anything there, but yet there's videos everywhere of a gunfight. You know, we hear it. Uh, and Iran is saying even in their Lego videos that everybody was involved. People were stopping traffic and, you know, helping the, you know, the uh, local forces get to the location. I mean it and obviously a lot happened there. Yeah. I mean I think I'm not sure about the forward base. I'm not sure the value of that kilometers in uh in land. I think it's on the wrong side of the mountains if the target. So I'm not sure about that in terms of military logic of of why you would you know you would have a long um supply line from there and that is going to be hit by the integrated air defense systems that the Iranians run and they run them on a guerilla style where they set up ambush zones um rather than have an umbrella defense. Um and so if you were if you were trying to feed that base, you would be coming along a track of land, hundreds of kilometers track of land um in which the Iranians would be able to use um their you know surfaceto-air ambush tactics for um air defense. So I I'm not sure about that. I mean, this is the thing. I think we could speculate a lot of of of what might uh be, but based on the evidence that we have right now. I um you know, I'm inclined to believe that they lost a pilot by an air defense operation by the Iranians and then when they went to get the pilot, they lost a bunch more assets. Um that made it a dicey operation at which point they withdrew effectively. They withdrew for a day and a half um and then went back in at a time in the night and botched the extraction in a pretty spectacular way to lose those planes. Um, so yeah, I mean it's the difficult part about the, you know, the way that the US has handled information in this war, like lying about things that are already proven and then hiding things that we know these bases have been targeted. We know they're lying about their casualties. The question is how much they're lying about their casualties. Um all of those things I think if we knew them would put a much more um you know how many were injured just in the extraction of that single um that single you know weapons officer um and then they didn't on the second day they didn't have the AWarthog uh close air support um so it's just uh you know it it took the most financed uh military on earth, the most well-resourced uh military on Earth with the most soldiers. Um to to to get one uh pilot out of a or one weapons officer out of a you know, pretty much barren mountain area. Um you know, if that if that had have happened in an area where people could reach it easily, I think we would this would be just a completely different story. And I think that the that that mountain range, I mean, I was looking taking the Google Earth drive, you know, around to try to see what would make sense for the Americans, you know, they don't, you know, they don't need an air with those uh search and rescue combat search and rescue um Cs. They don't need runways. I mean, that's that's the selling point of them, but it sure sounded like they needed a runway. So it's, you know, it's not clear that this was uh as successful an operation as they as the US is trying to frame it. And it would have been, you know, I mean, it was uh really egg on the face of the ridiculous statements of Trump saying that there was zero air defenses and then you get so many assets lost, it doesn't fit on a single page. Um, yeah. Yeah, you can go with with the right infographic, you can fit it on a single, make sure it's to scale. Yeah. No, that's very true. Uh well, Justin, I mean, with uh what John just said there, uh we had Pete Hegth say call this operation uh incredibly humiliating for Iran's uh military. And they know it. They know that this was incredibly uh humiliating for them. Uh and yet Iran doesn't seem to be acting like that. They're incredibly humiliated. Actually, Iran on the other side is saying, "Well, we responded very quick to this violation, you know, on our territory." And they're claiming that these losses that I had pulled up earlier uh are theirs. That the the US did try to blow up. They claim that the US tried to blow up the pilot himself and they try to blow up anyone that that they couldn't retrieve uh you know as they try to high-tail out of there. But you know what do you make of uh these comments by Hegseth? And let me actually uh play this from Heg Seth because this is I think why people can't really believe the United States right now about anything in this war the theatrics of it all. I mean just listen to this short comment that he made at the press conference about what uh happened in the beginning of this whole ordeal. Airman evaded capture for more than a day, scaling rugged ridges while hunted by the enemy. When he was finally able to activate his emergency transponder, his first message was simple and it was powerful. He sent a message, "God is good." In that moment of isolation and danger, his faith and fighting spirit shone through. You see, shot down on a Friday. Good Friday. Hidden in a cave, a crevice all of Saturday and rescued on Sunday. Flown out of Iran as the sun was rising on Easter Sunday. A pilot reborn all home and accounted for a nation rejoicing. God is good. So, it's a biblical prophecy. everything that just happened here just according to you know you know given that Trump said uh you know praise be to Allah I was I would have thought Haggath might have said God is great instead of God is good right translation pilot was probably saying that for sure how do we translate God is great into Arabic again so um so I just um and the other thing is like why is the pilot's name a secret like He's Wouldn't it be cool to have a ceremony with the pilot like you know at the White House and maybe his family especially for US lore. I mean isn't it the pinnacle of of US exceptionalism to show how heroic this guy was. They do this for for lesser things like shoot you know shootings all of this. I mean this is crazy. But anyway continue. Sorry. He should be on the Yeah, he should be at that he should be at this meeting. I think it's I think it's unfair that he's not he doesn't get to be at this meeting this brave colonel. And I also feel like um oh what what do you call them? The internet [ __ ] ought to be able to process of elimination figure out who he was. I mean colonels are not like this is he's not like a covert operator, right? He's pro he's is he an army colonel or a marine or something? How many colonels are there? There are there thousands of colonels deploy like I just think this like I don't know if there are people are saying it's because he's dead. I don't know if there ever was a colonel. I don't know. I don't know if there's any reason I don't see any reason to believe any of the any of these plot points. Like I I'm you know I'm partly criticizing this as a as a fiction writer here. um some of this stuff is is not a very good writing and and so you know you you want your story to hang together. You want there to be some logical progression from one part of the story to the next and and a lot of it is missing here. So, um, you know, we have only their word on all of this, on this pilot going missing, the pilot, you know, existing, um, the the story of him going to, you know, going to this hiding in a crevice and then flying to safety. We don't know anything, you know, and I don't believe anything they say. uh you know I I I the the the thing that I'm looking for is Iranian sources and they're not saying all that much. So it's hard to know there too cuz even the ones that say claim to know like I've seen officials say the whole story will come out but they didn't they don't say here's the story. They say you know we'll see that they're all saying it wasn't a rescue. So the Iranian sources that I've seen are all saying it wasn't a rescue. It was a much bigger thing. and uh it'll be revealed in due course. So the only credible the only sources that have told anything resembling uh accurate information are not explaining what happened. Yeah. And we should watch what we wish for because this this guy may end up getting a movie that uh that's fine. That's fine. He can have a movie. Well, uh you know, there were also some uh reports. I don't know if you saw, one of the big questions people had was uh how did this person uh walk so far um in order and survive uh I believe it was hundreds and hundreds of kilometers uh likely up uh uh mountains or various mountains, hills, whatever in that region. Uh even Pete Hegseth said crevice cave, right? Those are two very different things. Uh there's a lot uh of storytelling here, John, but maybe you could tell us what exactly does the lay of the land of the actual battlefield look like because Donald Trump, you know, just as all this is happening, it was reported that he through mediators is really trying to push a day ceasefire and um that's kind of the um uh where we are hanging right now is this Iran has to accept a ceasefire or it's going to get obliterated again. Right. So your uh your take on the lay of the actual battlefield lands right now? Yeah, I mean I think if the sites that we saw burning, which I think are obviously the sites of at least a significant portion of it, um it looks like they landed in a in a valley in a you know in a in a wadi and that there was a a mountainside right up from there and that he climbed up some amount of distance to get off of the ground. and then they had drones over him the whole time that didn't let anyone get within miles of him. Um, so those engagements prevented, I think, any kind of Iranian rescue, which was the point cuz they knew where he was. I think, you know, they have transponders, they have encrypted communications, they have a whole setup for this to happen. Um, so it wasn't like they were looking for a needle in a hay stack, which is the way that they like to make it seem like they did this heroic, you know, deep inside Iran operation, but um, in reality, he was pretty sheltered on the mountain side. Um, if you have drones over him, constantly shooting at anyone that approaches. Um, so yeah, I I think that the the the heroism of this story, I don't see it. Um, I I I just don't see it because of the evidence that we have seen right now. Um, the attempt to get him on the first day. I mean, maybe it's a she to get them on the first day um failed pretty spectacularly. Trump says the entire uh air every air asset they had was def deferred away from the battle and focused on this person and and rescuing this person. And with that they the air defense systems of the Iranians were able to take down I mean they've been able to take down basically one of every kind of plane that the Americans have flown so far. Um, and and I think that if there, you know, they had tried that again in the day, I in the daylight, I think probably the same thing would have happened. I think they got the small um window of the night to get the person out. Um, and I I guess that's just really all that we know at this point. Um, if you look at the at the Google Earth of where the plane went down, you can pretty clearly see the mountain that he would go up on and that he could get up on it. It was pretty gradual. Um, you know, it wasn't sharp cliffs. It was um, yeah, I mean, I think the crevice comes from the fact that it it looked pretty spiny all the way up. So, you would just get into one of those tracks and and and hike to safety, at which point your, you know, your guys are communicating with you that you're going to be rescued and that people aren't going to come up to where you are. Um, so that from that point, it seems to be it, you know, the the plane went down in a in a sparsely populated area. for sure it's within distance of uh Isvahan but again I I don't see the for there to be a forward base there I mean it would be under fire from all sides and then there would have to be this kilometer inland um supply line that would have to be completely secured so I mean I don't I don't think they can get a beach head uh you know from the straight of Hormuz let alone hundreds of kilome in. And I would suspect that the reason there wasn't more planes taken down was because they didn't need to send more planes once they knew where the guy was. The the goal was to find a time that you can go in and get them where you don't lose uh all your assets or your human assets. Um and they did that, but then they lost their assets. So, it's not really u, you know, a clean mission. It's definitely not, you know, the Hegsth story. Uh, I mean, they they said at one point he was injured. So, if he was injured, seriously, he said he was seriously injured, too. Trump did. Yeah. To then climb. I don't know those. But, yeah, I think that Why do we not see the person's name? I I can't remember a time where there's been a story like this that we haven't um that we haven't seen the names and it just matches with all of the secrecy of this um war because I mean because frankly the Americans are not winning this war. They're just not. and um you know all these threats about you know tomorrow night this show might be stale by p.m. tomorrow night when you know Trump escalates the war to a level um that becomes no one has ever seen no one's ever seen the biggest ever um but it you know if that were to happen the Gulf states are going to be eliminated and so that you know that style of warfare that Trump is threatening is really cat I mean it'll be catastrophic for Iran but it'll be catastrophic for the US uh footprint in the region because the countries that are all in the Gulf right across you know right across the lake from Iran all single point of failure um um infrastructure right like desalination plants their fuel deep I mean they're small countries so they you know their fuel um their energy projects aren't all spread out over um the land like Iran's are um I just think that that escalation that is not going to win the Americans the war. It it's going to redraw the map of the Middle East. And I don't know if I don't know if Trump has I don't know if he has that in him. I guess we're going to see. Yeah. Well, uh this he said uh Justin at this press conference that uh the entire country could be taken out in one night and that night may be tomorrow night referencing this I think p.m. Eastern time deadline. Uh Iran though has uh essentially given the middle finger to this deadline and to any ceasefire proposal like the day one that has been relayed through Pakistan. uh Pakistan uh Iran rejects temporary ceasefire and instead demands what it's been demanding since the beginning of the war which is a permanent end to all theaters in the Middle East all war theaters Lebanon Gaza Iran with guarantees implementation of a transit protocol that recognizes Iranian control over the straight of Hormuz which is essentially already underway the lifting of economic sanctions on Iran and acknowledging the right to peacefully enrich uranium under the NPT and UN charter and paying reparations for damages So, doesn't seem like Iran is uh capitulating here, Justin. So, uh what does that say about then where this war is? Trump and it feels like Trump and the chief of staff and Pete Hegth and John Ratcliffe, they were trying to portray a lot of confidence and that things are going very well at the moment. But uh maybe you can help us understand what this tells us then that Iran is rejecting the ceasefire despite these massive threats. When you look at the when you look at the overall picture of who how this war has been conducted um and like you just try to ask yourself who which side of this war looks like it's implementing a plan that it's step by step following. if they do this, we'll do this. If we see that, we'll do this. And and we march towards our objective in a kind of systematic way. And which side seems to be making up objectives um as they go along? Like the US has like I I had this tweet the other day that did pretty well where I said, you know, they started off with their objective being preventing weapons that weren't being made. They moved on to trying to open a straight that wasn't closed and then they moved on to trying to rescue pilots who weren't missing until after their operation. So they're they just keep um moving on from one plan to another. Uh I don't you know as legendary even if you take them at their word about how wonderful and legendary and unprecedented this rescue operation was. it was a rescue operation. Um, so presumably already if you're doing a rescue operation, something has happened that you didn't want to happen in the first place. um the the escalation um ability of Iran uh is has you know for anyone who's paying attention including the Americans it's been definitively shown uh every time they've said they were going to destroy something they said if you do this we're going to destroy that then the Israelis destroy something they say okay you you destroyed this thing we said we were going to destroy that tomorrow we're going to destroy that and then they do the next day they destroy it. So similarly now Trump has said uh I'm tomorrow I'm going to destroy the power plants and bridges and the Iranians have said if Trump follows through with this foolhardy plan we will destroy everything uh in an irreparable way. And so I, you know, I I just don't see any reason anybody should have to think that they're bluffing. Um, they're not they have not they haven't even once done that. So there's a there is now now the the the last thing I'll say about this is um if if you take like John was saying he you know he he has this phrase the the single point of failure infrastructure. If everything in the Middle East is turned into ash um Iran will rise from the ash. Um, so so will Palestine and and Lebanon and probably Syria and some of these societies. Um, but the Gulf States will not the Gulf States are uh, you know, they're not societies. They're theme parks, right? Uh, somebody I saw that on online. Somebody said, you know, if you if you work if the people who work in a place can't afford to live in that place, you you're not you don't have a city, you have a theme park. And the Gulf States are theme parks. um they won't rise from the ashes and and and you can't there's no such thing by the other okay really the last thing there's no such thing as taking out a country in a day not a you can you can if you're willing to use nuclear weapons take out a city in a day um and you know as horrific as that is you can't take out you can't there's no mechanism for taking out a country of million people that's the size of France and Germany combined in a day if people think about France and Germany combined and or or some contacts that they know a little better. They'll they'll see there's no way to take you can maybe destroy the entire planet. It might be it's a problem on that order. So again, Trump doesn't know what he's talking about. Yeah. I I mean I I just a second that like the Gulf would be wiped out and and it's not hard to do because the Gulf is essentially a collection of cities, right? It's not they don't have hinterlands. Um yeah, it's they don't have mountains that they're b they've buried their missile cities in or their you know resilient or their desalination plant. Like I if that plant goes and you don't have water, it's not, you know, like it doesn't take a water geologist, whoever rocket scientist for water geology to tell you that you're not going to last long in the Middle East, uh, if you're desalination plants. And those have been targeted. Those are said to be targets. And every time Iran says they're going to target them, they do. Um and every time the US tries for escalation dominance um they really just strengthen Iran's hand at this point. And now sitting here days into the war, Iran is in the process of overthrowing the sanctions regime, recovering their currency through the straight of Hormuz uh toll booth. um you know making their ally their countries around them in their neighborhood more likely to not want war than to end this war saying we need more weapons to protect against Iran. I think they're going to look at the Gulf and say it makes a lot more sense for us to be allied with the people who are you know controlling the strait where our fuel exits. So, it's just really, you know, I Trump never has like a program, but whatever this program is is all in Iran's favor and he I don't see what the way out is if Trump other than to wake up one morning um and just say the war's over and then at that point, does Iran decide the war is over? Does Israel decide the war is over? And I think that's one of the really important things that have come from this war is that Iran in those points that you listed, they want all the wars on all the fronts to end. And that is the thing that the region is desperate for because the ceasefire in Gaza is garbage. It's just a a license to kill. Um and it's been consistently that way. And if it it is to continue in Gaza that you can just assassinate any Kasam figure or any government figure at any point that cannot continue. That's the situation that was in Lebanon because they also had a garbage ceasefire that allowed Israel to just assassinate everybody. If if Iran is able to enforce ceasefires in pal in Palestine and in Lebanon, um the strength of that uh axis of resistance and that alliance that you know over at some points over the last years has been called into question is absolutely not under these circumstances. they have the power to um to be the dominant force in the region and they're carrying out the war in that way. They're not firing ballistic missiles that will leave them with nothing or little to enforce the period after the war. They're seeing a life after the war where being continually um able to fire at any point is a crucial part of their long-term strategy. whereas the Americans are in this race where they're, you know, they have a finite number of interceptors. Um they're trying to make do with them and at some point they run out and it's it there's not more coming and the longer the war goes on, the more it's in Iran's favor. And Bloomberg recently tried to count the JSUs, the stealth cruise missiles that they have, and they counted uh not very many left. And when they run out of those or get close, they're going to start doing more more runs of their bombers over Iran, exposing them to air defense. And many more planes will be shot down. There will be planes shot down like we've never seen before to Yeah. Donald Trump might have difficulty holding himself back. And so, and I I do, by the way, I I do think I do think that that's what's going to happen. I don't think the Americans are going to call it off. I don't think they're going to stop. Um I think they're going to go way beyond what most of us thought their tolerance was. I think their tolerance for um protecting Israel and allowing the Gulf to be destroyed is going to prove to be a lot higher than we thought. And uh and I think Iran um would like would have liked it to be otherwise, but I do think Iran uh is prepared for that possibility as well. And I think that like the way, you know, the way you put it, John, like I think that Iran wants to inherit whatever is left of the region as the hegemon as the rightful hegemon of the region. Uh morally as well, like Egypt could have been the hegemon of the region and Turkey could have been the hegemon of the region. They're both in the region. They're both big. They're potentially strong, but they just decided to give away their sovereignty to America and Israel. So that it leaves it to Iran. Uh, and if Iran and Iran doesn't want to destroy everything, they don't. Why should they? They're going to they're going to be running the place after. Um, and uh, and and so I I that's what I think is behind the restraint such as it is that we've seen. But once once bridge what are they what's he calling it? Bridge day. Once bridge day and power plant day power plant day, there's no longer any reason for Iran to to not uh respond in kind. So yeah, and the US propaganda is that they're firing at, you know, innocent civilians in these Gulf countries, but there's no record of that whatsoever. Um, so they have seemingly been fighting this war uh as if these countries are going to be their neighbors when the the war is over. And part of driving the US out of the region um is to be allied with those countries. Um so but but once yeah once you're destroying you know the Iranian nation um and using those countries to do it um especially if they're running out of uh you know long range aerial cruise missiles. They're you know going to be firing their attackums and their precision strike munitions from those Gulf countries. Um I yeah I think all bets are off. Yeah. Yeah. I mean uh and what is you know with the word the it's it's almost like a different kind of of war of attrition. not like the one we see in Ukraine, but one where I don't know if you heard John and Justin that you know the Iranians are saying that they are not only are they firing very strategically obviously but they're also producing still that they're not it's not like they're just loading up their the missile launchers or underground launchers whatever and the missiles are going and that's it. No, that they actually have a production system that's uh still happening um mainly underground. uh that the United States cannot hit and that the New York Times even uh said the United States cannot hit because they think they're all deco, you know, they they're just mistaking decoys for actual missile systems. And that's led to this uh this is even JP Morgan talking about how uh especially against Israel, the hit rate that Iran is uh essentially leveling onto Israel has increased dramatically. And now we're hearing something like eight out of missiles that Iran fires at Israel are getting through. And uh every day we see the results. And I'll put those up. Whoever wants to comment on this. I mean that this seems to indicate that what Iran is trying to do is it's it's trying it's going to go the long haul to get exactly what it wants regardless of whatever the US says. and whatever it does, they're prepared for matching that. Yeah. Well, we haven't seen the best stuff that Iran has. They've been firing ballistic missiles. They have better ballistic missiles, more difficult to intercept ballistic missiles that they're not using. The Sajil, um the Haj Cassams, the you know, they have those ready and numerous. They've been preparing for this war for two generations. Um, and the war is going exactly how they would have thought that the war was going, right? There's there's no um, you know, military science in the United States that is um, you know, going over the head of Trump to make a proper military strategy in this situation. So really everything that Iran um, you know, planned for is is happening. And the long-term goal or the long-term benefit out of this is that the straight of Hormuz was never treated as an Iranian asset. Iran treated it as an international waterway. They, you know, threatened wartime conditions should the war happen. They told us this before uh Trump launched the war exactly what would happen. But that's not ever going back. So Iran has that asset now um that that just completely changes this last you know generation of maximum pressure sanctions um and gives them a really strong position each of these turns that you look Iran is in a very strong position and what the Americans are doing and the Israelis especially are blowing up schools universities um you know that kind of warfare. They're not they're not hitting deep bunkers uh over and over again with the you know giving the idea that they know that that's a missile base. We haven't seen any of that. We definitely have seen a lot of decoys and we've seen a lot of just like pot shots like taking out you know -year-old uh naval vessels um and then saying that the Navy is destroyed when the Navy is primarily a you know a set of fast boats missile uh with missiles on them that can do whatever they want in the straight and they have those all still in uh underground bases ready to be used they they haven't used there hasn't been a need for Iran to use any of these things because fighting the war with their old missiles at a slow pace um it's still working. Israel gets to warnings a day where people are running into their shelters. the warnings because of the early warning radars that have been destroyed are slower warnings and they cover more area because the radar can't hone in exactly on where the trajectory is landing. So, they have these huge swaths of area that are under sirens that they never used to have before. They used to be able to be pretty pinpoint about it. um if Iran turns to decide and Iran hasn't been targeting civilian targets in Israel. You know, they've been firing those submunitions and occasionally a submunition um will end up in a civilian area, but they're clearly targeting the military-industrial base of the Israelis. Um and they're not hitting Tel Aviv with um you know two ton uh warheads, which they have many of them. So this war has a lot of room for Iranian escalation and they hold the escalation dominance over a country, you know, that has a multi- trillion dollar military infrastructure. Um, it's pretty remarkable. They said the Iranians have said twice, you know, don't bother trying to count uh because your our production uh you know, you can't touch it. It's where you can't reach it and and you'll never know. But we have plenty. The the other, you know, there's a there's a um a podcast I was on, Resistance is Fertile, and one of the hosts is Indi Indie. He go, if you go to indie.ca is his writing, he said, you know, uh the way the Americans talk about the Iranians running out of missiles is like going to a bakery at the end of the day and saying there's no more bread. Like they bake it in the morning, you know? um there there's going to be bread again in the morning. And so there's uh there's just um you can't you can't actually um that that's why I I even found that I kind of chuckled a little when you showed that chart, Danny, because these these charts that people are trying to come up with to count missiles and percentages um as if they can count down from some fixed number. Um there's you know there's production there's a rate of production there's a rate of getting the inputs for the production there you can you can speed up or slow down the expenditure and that all applies on the other side too I I don't necessarily think that you know um the Americans or the Israelis are going to run out of anything when they get low enough they're going to change their behavior and adopt a a new policy that's a little bit different and less advantageous to them. Um, but you know, you can't count you can't watch and and then like come up with a strategy for like out counting uh the other side. Um, that's not that's that's not how this this war is going to be decided. And ultimately, this war is going to be decided by Iran. It's going to be decided by Iran. And Iran is going to decide when it ends uh and when their their terms have been uh when their when their conditions have been met. Yeah. And it seems like the United States is quite okay at this point, even though you see it in, you know, whatever it is, the financial mainstream media, the mainstream media journal, you know, the -hour news cycle, the the military experts, all of them, uh, they don't like it, but they're okay with the United States doing what they're doing right now, which is drawing away from other parts of the world. That's what they they've been doing this for quite some time uh uh over the course of this war. Taking from Korea, taken from the Asia theater because you know uh despite the the desire for there to be a uh preparedness against China, which was always a fantasy I believe to begin with, but despite their desire for that, this is happening right now and they're getting their butts kicked right now and they need this to to keep going. But John, your comments on the uh because a lot of people are making note of uh what Justin brought up there and then his earlier point about Jasums. We know about the air defense interceptors. It feels to me though that the economic uh consequences of this war may catch up far faster than even the military uh you know consequences for the US and Israel but Europe and the region and the Gulf. That's absolutely the truth. And the so the longer the war goes, the more it's in Iran's uh favor again. So each of these uh vectors that we analyze um it's a ron each time because once the you know there's a certain amount of oil that was in the system um but once that uh starts to dry up and then because of the um the large scale oil projects being shut down and require time to fire those back up. And then the just the straight up what they call flow rate, which is even if you had the oil, how can you get how many u barrels can you get to x y or z place in the world? Um there's a limit to that. So it's going to take even if the war ended yesterday, it's going to take months to repair um the damage from it. And every day that it goes on longer is more of a benefit to Iran. And it's also more of a deterrence for this uh you know marauding uh Israeli military and American military on you know on their side um that these wars if you're going to start these genocidal wars the world economy is going to immediately be impacted that is such an a an advance in Iranian uh power civilization civilization It goes, it takes them from, you know, the weeks before the war when they had uh when their currency was essentially annihilated um to now midwar their currency is bounced back. The economist is writing about how it's made them so rich this war. Um just yeah like I said every vector is not in the American interest and and to continually escalate against a country that has escalation dominance over you um because they can fire missiles from anywhere in the country. So the the Americans can go around bombing all the bridges and all the power plants, but that's not going to do anything for the launching of uh short range ballistic missiles at um the Gulf and Gulf infrastructure. Um you know, when we were talking about what weapons, they haven't even brought out their better drones. They have far better drones, uh the Shawad s that they could bring out that um that they haven't really used yet. Um, and those are much they're faster, they have a heavier warhead, they are very difficult to jam electronically, and they're super precise. And so those tools coming out of the tool bag when you're supposed to be running out of things and you're pulling out higher caliber uh material to fight the battle. It's just um yeah, I mean, it it's it's it's remarkable. and and and Iran had this um you know sort of sitting there through all of when you think about all the geopolitical um you know phases that we've gone through in the last few years even when you kind of look back to true promise one and two and and I guess less so three because they they hit pretty hard there um Iran has been very um you know they haven't been blustery about this they took their time. They were very cautious about it and now that their moment is here, they appear to be ready to seize it. And I think that that's something that you do hear from um the Iranian spokespeople and from just the general vibe uh within the military in Iran that they are going to seize. They're not going to let this moment pass. Yeah. with regional impacts, you know, like for, you know, my primary job is is covering uh Palestine and covering Gaza and the way that that war ended is is horrible. And, you know, the genocide is still continuing. And the fact that you could have the resistance access to step forward in this moment and and take advantage of of enforcing a ceasefire, um, you know, it's the same for Lebanon as well. there. It's a genocidal war in the south of Lebanon um run by ethnic cleansing um and targeting people for you know their race and nationality. Yeah. So yeah, can I just say like you know Danny I I know you have an interest in China and uh and like this is benefiting China. Um you know there's a book I read called Here Comes the Sun. It's kind of like my, you know, my day job is to study environmental issues and and environmental management. And um the book, it's a book by Bill McKibben. He's talking about the the kind of roll out of solar energy all over the world. And someone is quoted in that book as saying, you're going to love this, that China is the Saudi Arabia of renewable energy. Um that's hilarious, actually. And so uh you know if you know if the idea is and it's going to have to be that you know the best way to try to reduce uh you know dependence of the world on Iran's power over the straight of Hormuz is to go renewable. Well that's fine because you're going to have to get that technology from China. So uh it really is not the time. It's not the West's not the West's time. It's not the petro dollar. The petro dollar's time is does not seem like it's uh gonna last much longer. No, may already be over. Well, Trump was asked about this toll, too. And and he just redirected it back to, oh, we'll be running the toll because we're winning. I think you literally said this but Iran is actually exact you know enforcing this toll right now and saying to every not to publicly that this is to accumulate reparations for the war uh because they need to rebuild and you know and it's their waterway you know they're like it's our waterway with Oman like you know and then but there are these consequences too now Saudi oil and this is going to happen across the board it's going to keep happening the longer this goes if Trump this is what maybe final comments on this is every time Trump the it's such a interesting trap to be in. Every time the United States and Israel go farther up the escalation ladder, the bigger the consequences are for the uh entirety of the oil petro dollar dominated uh global economy and and so if this time tomorrow, you know, about hours tomorrow, they are hitting every power plant or as many as they can, as many uh oil fields as they can. uh we're going to keep seeing this sa Saudi oil, everyone's oil, the entirety of the oil markets go up to astronomical rates and and that's a I I guess final comments on how does that influence the battlefield especially since there's something even bigger than this that people miss which John you alluded to which is that there's a entire resistance force movement uh very much in motion and uh with Iran and the rest are are are not looking to step back until they get what they want and they get what they find is just. Yeah. I mean, I I I'm hoping that that's what it is and I hope they stand firm on on that regional element for sure. Um that that you know, the price of oil will go up, it will benefit certain countries when the price goes up. But when the Saudi uh infrastructure has been shut down, um you know, that's going to take a long time of not uh you it's going to take a long time to fix. And I don't think we even fully understand how long it will take to fix. Um and I think that's uh that's something that's going to be felt in every household, you know, probably all over the world. If you need oil, you're probably going to have to go to Russia. I mean, no matter how you no matter how you slice it, it's going to be renewables from China, uh, oil from Russia if everything is destroyed, and oil from Iran, you know, via the straight of Hormuz for which you have to pay Iran if everything isn't destroyed, whatever there is that exists. Uh, so but you'll pay Iran, you'll pay Iran less than the insurance that is being charged for these tankers um already. So you might get support from the tanker industry to actually do that in the straight of Hormuz and it's not that crazy. A lot of other straits, a lot of other canals uh charge tolls. It's a basic um you know in some in some ways you might wonder and I'm sure they do in Iran wonder why they didn't do it before. Yeah. Yeah. Well uh and then we basically well Donald Trump would disagree with both of you guys. He would say, "Well, everyone's going to buy oil from us." Which is actually not going to be the the case at all. But that's that's that's the um that's the hill that uh the United States at this point, the hegemon, the empire is dying on right now is Trump's belief that, you know, everyone's going to want to turn into, you know, be a Venezuela, for example. And then you find out that a lot of Venezuelan oil is going to China and that this so-called control may not be as firm. And to rebuild all of these weapons, they need these critical minerals that are in China as well. And so it it's they're yeah, they're firing their arrows. There's really they're they're doing it. They're golden they're firing their golden arrows at the wooden at the wooden uh kites that are that the Persian cats are sending towards them. Well, guys, uh any final comments you want to make? Anything that we didn't uh discuss here that you want to get in here before we close out? But uh we can begin with you uh John and then Justin. Um no I think we we covered uh most of what I had in uh in my notes in front of me. I think um I'm glad you had us on. I appreciate it and it was a good conversation. Yeah. Justin, anything? Yeah. No, I I'm I'm also thank you very much um for having us, Danny. It's it's it's always fun. And like like John said, uh make sure everybody share this with your friends before tomorrow night because this is going to be completely obsolete by Tuesday. This is why the daily grind. Then you just have to clip those two parts where we talked about the gulf. Yeah, exactly. Well, everybody, uh make sure you can go to the video description. You can find the Anti-Empire Project YouTube as well as the Resistance Report on Electronic and Tapata there. That's where you can find both their work. Am I forgetting anything? Is there anything else you'd like me to put under there? Um, okay. I can do that uh even after the show. So, go to the video description, uh, find them there. You can, of course, hit the like button. That keeps the show going after this is done. As John said, uh, things are moving very quickly here. So, if you want more eyes to see this, hitting the like button is a great way to do that. I also want to uh let you know that there's place to support the show in the video description as well uh for this show, Patreon, subsewani of the cradle. Thanks everyone who gave a uh super chat here today and uh I'll see you again tomorrow, a.m. Eastern time. All right, everyone, hit the like button for our guests today. They did an incredible job and see you tomorrow. Thanks for having us.
Is the Iranian War About to Become Apocalyptic? (w/ Trita Parsi) | The Chris Hedges Report The Chris Hedges YouTube Channel Apr 6, 2026
Transcript
Donald Trump on Easter of all days issued an expletive laden threat to Iran in which he demanded the regime quote open theing straight of Hormuz you crazy bastards. He vowed to target the country's energy and transport infrastructure which is a war crime. His latest rant is part of a pattern of incendiary rhetoric, including a threat to bomb Iranians, quote, "Back to the stone age where they belong. Tuesday will be power plant day and bridge day all wrapped up in one in Iran," he posted. There will be nothing like it. Open the straight, you crazy bastards, or you'll be living in hell. Just watch. Praise be to Allah, President Donald J. Trump. Leaving aside the obvious questions about Trump's mental stability, the threat comes as the Trump White House approaches yet another self-imposed deadline. By tomorrow, Iran must reopen the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world's most important shipping lanes for oil and gas, or according to Trump, face apocalyptic retribution. The strait has been effectively closed since the US and Israel launched the war in Iran in February and has seen global oil prices skyrocket. What does this latest deadline portend? Will it be extended in desperation as past deadlines by the US have been? Or will it signal an escalation of the war? One where vital energy facilities and infrastructure, including desalination plants, will be targeted by Israel and the United States, as well as by Iran. Iran insists that it will only open the strait after receiving compensation for war damages paid via a new legal regime based on transit fees imposed on shipping in the straight. Joining me to discuss the looming Tuesday deadline in the war on Iran is Tita Parsy, an expert on US Iranian relations, Iranian foreign policy, and the geopolitics of the Middle East. He is the author of four books on US foreign policy in the Middle East with a particular focus on Iran and Israel. He is the co-founder and executive vice president of the Quincy Institute and the co-founder and former president of the National Iranianamerican Council. He has served as an adjunct professor of international relations at John's Hopkins Universities, SIS, New York University, Georgetown University, and George Washington University, as well as an adjunct scholar at the Middle East Institute and as a policy fellow at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars in Washington DC. So Trita, let's begin with this self-imposed deadline, the newest that I spoke about in the introduction. Uh but it does seem although these, you know, the these self-imposed deadlines have been extended, it does seem that we have reached a very frightening point where there's serious consideration of massive escalation in desperation uh obviously driven by desperation. Is is that where you see us headed? I fear that is where we are. We can see a pattern in which Trump is issuing angrier and angrier tweets with all kinds of deadlines and threats of escalation. He has largely backed off from actualizing many of those knowing very well that he doesn't have escalation dominance. So take a look at what the situation is in the Persian Gulf right now. For instance, we have high oil prices because the Iranians are not letting the tankers through. Um uh you know, they're letting some through but not all. Uh they're trying to collect transit fees, etc. But we don't have a destruction of the oil infrastructure in the region. And this is deliberate. Now, if the United States goes after the power plants and other type of infrastructure in Iran, the Iranians have threatened that they will go after the oil infrastructure in the region. If that happens, we're not just in a situation in which right now oil prices are high because of a bottleneck in the Persian Gulf, but once that bottleneck is open, the oil will flow rather quickly. We will be in a situation in which the oil will not flow for quite some time because there will be a production problem. It can take to years to rebuild all of those different things. that would cause a prolonged and much higher level of oil prices that would destroy Trump's presidency and throw the world most likely into a global depression. So precisely because of these reasons, Trump has so far been very careful not to go that full distance. But because of his desperation, because of his false belief that he's still in a strong position, they can dictate the terms to the Iranians and his psychological refusal to accept the fact that in order to get out of this war, he actually has to give some concessions, there is a likelihood that he will just go all out and do something absolutely insane, potentially using non-conventional weapons. So that risk cannot be discounted because if we presume rationality, well, we wouldn't be in this position in the first place. There's nothing rational about being in this war or having started this war under this false belief that the Iranians would cave or collapse within days. And of course, the other question is how desperate is Israel? I don't think the Israelis are desperate, but I think the Israelis are very comfortable knowing that they can keep on pushing Trump uh in the direction that they want him. I mean, take a look at, for instance, where he's now suddenly saying that he will bomb Iran back to the stone age. And then on top of that, he said, uh, we will set them back and then the next president may have to bomb them again. That's the exact Israeli blueprint for their strategy of mowing the grass. Uh, this is not the way the US has been conducting war. You know, the US, as much as it it's committed a lot of atrocities in Iraq and Afghanistan, the United States did not deliberately target universities Iraq. But that is what the Israelis have been doing in Gaza and in Lebanon. And this is exactly what they're doing right now together with the US and Iran. Sharif University, their top university was hit just yesterday. So we're seeing the Israelization of America's conduct of the war, but also of the goals of the war in which uh you know mowing the grass strategy which by definition means an endless state of war with Iran is now being embraced by Donald Trump. That's a sign of desperation and a sign of the control or or the influence that the Israelis have over his direction. uh if there is an escalation, a military escalation, if they hit for instance the oil facilities on Kharg Island, if they actually strike the power plants uh in Iran, what do you see the Iranians doing at that point? And I see them targeting uh um refineries as well as power grids in the GCC countries and in Israel. And as I mentioned that will create a completely different oil crisis than compared to what we have right now. Right now this is just because of a bottleneck in that other scenario will be because of infrastructure being destroyed, production being uh uh degraded. that's going to cause a completely different type of a scenario that ultimately will likely destroy Trump's presidency. And this is part of the reason why he's refrain from going in that direction so far. But out of this desperation and which he realizes he is not in control. He cannot dictate the terms. He cannot decide when this war ends or when it uh uh pauses. Uh there is a risk that he will go down this path. Right now, the US is apparently putting forward these phased uh ceasefire proposals and then Trump gets more and more frustrated because the Iranians are rejecting them. But why would any country at this point agree to a phased ceasefire? Would the United States and Israel, mindful of the track record that Israel and the United States have in Lebanon and in Gaza in which these ceasefires have been violated uh within by the Israelis without any repercussions from the US and we have never reached phase two or phase three because they were not meant to go to that point. And if you take a look at the proposal that has been put on the table so far, it is essentially asking the Iranians to give up all of their leverage in phase one. And then there's a huge question mark as to whether there ever will be an achievement of reaching phase two. Well, that's every agreement going back to Camp David. They're they're always written in phases. Israel gets what it wants in the first phase and ignores every other phase. That's that's the pattern for those of us who have covered the Middle East. Indeed. And when we when it comes to Gaza, for instance, the Israelis were very I mean, they're not even hiding it. They were very clearcut. They're never going to go to phase two. Uh and and uh the Trump administration thought that at least phase two would be achievable, but they knew themselves that phase three was never going to be achieved. At at this point, if you're serious about diplomacy, you don't put forward proposals of that kind and lowballing uh because it simply won't go anywhere. And if you don't have time on your side, which Trump does not, getting serious means that you actually put some real compromises on the table. And so far, we have not seen that. Well, you also had strikes on Iran in June and then again starting on February th with this war in the midst of negotiations. Exactly. Twice Iran now has been struck by two nuclear weapons states in the middle of negotiations. So all of that adds to a scenario in which the Iranians are not going to agree to anything that does not end the war in a durable manner. End the war, not just cause some sort of a ceasefire. Um, and within that also they're going to be asking for concessions that the US probably thought it would never have to give, such as uh lifting of the sanctions. They may not agree to completely open the straight. They may actually try to install a transit fee system permanently and use their control of the straits not to end the war but to negotiate uh or manage the relations with states after the war. States who in the past used to have economic relations with Iran but who cut those economic relations in the last years because of pressure from the United States. It seems like the Iranians are going to try to use this leverage to rein restart those economic relations with those states rather than using it uh for some sort of a uh negotiations with the United States. If that is the case, it tells you something of what type of assessment the Iranians have themselves of their position of weakness or strength. And they may be miscalculating as well and overplaying their hands. But it shows you that the distance between where the US is and where the Iranians believe they are is so massive that any negotiation um that is based on these type of lowball things are are absolute non-starters and are probably setting back the cause of uh ending this war. Well, that's what we get for having two Zionist asset Jared Kushner and Steve Witov running our negotiations with Iran. I think at the end of the day though um the real issue is that it's not the negotiators not to say you know in defending them or how they conduct themselves or even if they know anything about these subjects the details that have come out of from the Geneva round of negotiations really are frankly embarrassing in terms of how little technical knowledge uh coffin and Kushner appear to have had uh and as a result opportunities you know they contributed to those opportunities being missed but the fundamental problem is who the negotiators are reporting to and that is Trump and with him right now you have a scenario in which he had been lulled into this belief that the Iranian regime is so weak it has no choice but to capitulate and all you need to do is to push it a little bit whether it's through military threats or actually taking military action and they will either implode internally or they will surrender and that was a fundamental misread of the situation But it was not a misread from the Israeli side. I think the Israelis knew very well that that was not the reality. But they knew also that the only way you could convince Trump to do something like this, take military action, adopt a regime change policy, things he had promised his base that he wouldn't do, the only way you could do that is to convince him that it's going to be so easy. It's just going to be a repeat of Venezuela. And as a result, you're better off doing that than to negotiate a deal and agree to a compromise with Iranians. And that mindset ruined the negotiations and then also led to this war being turned into a debacle. You already have the Iranians imposing tariffs, fees, whatever you want to call it. I think it's $million per oil tanker. I think those tankers have about $million worth of oil. They've already set up this kind of toll booth system in the straight. They have, but it has not been I mean de facto is operating right now. Even the French apparently now are getting some ships through and I suspect that there's going to be a larger number of countries that will negotiate either collectively or their bilateral deals with Iran. But whether that is a temporary situation on war or whether that becomes a permanent mechanism post-war remains a question. Clearly the Iranians want to go towards the latter making sure that this is now a permanent situation. If that ends up becoming one of the long-term outcomes of this war, u then that it's a clear sign of what a disastrous decision it was for the United States to initiate this war in the first place. But there's still a lot of question marks as to whether that mechanism in the long run will work, will be accepted, etc. But right now, that is where the Iranians have their mindset. I want to talk about the diaspora. I was in a Persian restaurant in New York on Saturday and the owner told me when the on February th when they assassinated the supreme leader, they all broke out the champagne. Um, and but there is this disconnect between the diaspora, the Iranian diaspora. Uh and I think at this point the citizens of Iran were watching uh their schools be obliterated with the death of what's the final count school girls uh you know basic infrastructure being they just hit a petrochemical plant um and it reminds me very much of the Iraq war where you had figures like Anan McKaya and Chalabi and others kind of cheering on the destruction of Iraq. Can you speak to that issue? Sure. Absolutely. First of all, I think it's important to know that those people in the diaspora who were cheering the war, not just the assassination of how many, but actually wanted more war, were never a majority in the community, but they had become a very strong plur plurality just in the last year or so, which in and of itself is quite astonishing. Mindful of the fact that just years ago, support for war within the Iranian-American community was less than %. So some things clearly had shifted. Uh the latest poll done by the National Iranian-American Council that was published last week showed that two-thirds of the Iranian-American community opposed this war. But this brings us to the other parallel that you just mentioned in regards to Iraq. Back in those Iraqi voices, Iraqi American voices that were cheerleading this war, they were paraded on mainstream media going from channel to channel begging the United States to bomb their ancestral home. The same thing happened here in which a lot of those voices were overwhelmingly invited onto all mainstream media shows to kind of give um uh an Iranian face to this war to humanize it to say that essentially this is done out of humanitarian concerns. Um those voices were never representative of the majority of the community and that right now they're representative of a a shrinking minority because more and more people are understandably turning against this war. They had been criminally naive, thinking that this was going to be a quick affair and that this would liberate the country, that Israel would bring democracy to Iran in the midst of its ongoing genocide in Gaza. Criminally naive, but nevertheless, people are understandably turning away from that position. But it is the mainstream media that I think more than anything else have been responsible for giving everyone the impression that that is the totality of the Iranian-American community, whereas it wasn't even a majority to begin with. It is a shrinking minority now, but still those are the voices that are being paraded on TV just as they were in the Iraq war. I want to talk about the sanctions. Um Iran is a wealthy country. Uh it uh had uh a thriving middle class. We should also be clear, Iranians like Iraqis, I also worked in Iraq, are highly educated. A vast majority are highly educated. Um it's not in any way as uh you know the the kind of the way it's painted certainly by the Trump White House but often in the media. Um and the middle class is a bull work of any democracy. Our own disintegrating middle class certainly contributed to the rise of Trump and the right wing. Um, but many of the policies that the United States have has carried out since the the revolution uh I think have have been counterproductive to building democracy. And then we just have to throw in the Moseday the overthrow of Mosadegh by the CIA and British intelligence which at the time was the he was the prime minister and he wanted control of Iranian oil rather than turning it over to British petroleum. he was overthrown in a coup and that was one of the last if I have that correct truly functioning democracies in the Middle East which we destroyed. So, but talk a little bit about how this uh I don't think Israel United States actually wants democracy. That's why they're kind of pushing the Shaw's son on on us. Not so much Trump, but certainly the Israelis. But talk a little bit about how counterproductive our policies have been and how those policies have really um uh played to the advantage of this uh Ayatollah, you know, the Ayatollah-led regime. No, you're you're absolutely right and you're putting your finger on something very important that goes to explain why you had % support for military strikes years ago and and then suddenly a strong minority uh in the community uh above % but not that um uh in the beginning of this war were in favor of it. Obviously the fundamental factor is the repression of the Iranian uh government itself that has intensified but the question is why has it intensified and here the sanctions come in as a very important factor between and when the JCPA was in effect and the US had lifted or at least waved its sanctions the Iranian economy grew to% every year the middle class was getting stronger um and if this had continued for another years if the US had never walked out of the JCPOA and sanctions had remained. This is just for people who don't know this is the Obama correct uh the the agreement which freed up I think billions you probably know the exact figure of Iranian frozen assets correct frozen assets were freed up but more importantly the Iranians were were able to sell oil again uh investments could be flowing in it didn't happen to the extent that the Iranians hoped for but nevertheless even in that limited sense their economy grew to %. If that had continued, economists have uh made calculations, Iran's middle class would have become the strongest, if not one of the strongest middle classes in the Middle East by years after the signing of the JCPOA. This would then have led to a scenario in which the Iranian middle class, as in all other middle classes, would be exerting pressure on their government for greater openness, political liberalization, same trends that we have seen in other places. But they would be doing so from a position of strength because the growing economy would have reduced the state's ability to control all means of production and assets and and uh uh income in the country. Instead, Trump walked out of the JCPOA, imposed even stricter sanctions on Iran, which then decimated the Iranian middle class. Between and onethird of Iran's middle class actually went into poverty. as a direct result of the sanctions. This then predictably led to an even more repressive Iranian government who had to use more repression in order to be able to sustain their own power in the country as the economy was deteriorating further. Then we saw the massive protest in around Masa Amini and of course the protest uh earlier in December and January uh in which the government was using more and more repressive means and in January killing several thousand uh protesters. And what you saw there is that as a result of this increased repression which to a large extent has to do with the economic situation which has very much to do with the sanctions uh being reimposed is that uh the population also then in reaction became radicalized. In they were protesting in favor of making sure that the election results would stand that there wouldn't be any election fraud. uh but it was about change within the system. By there was no demand for reform. It was a demand for the re the regime to fall altogether and the means for that was street protest and revolution. By the demands that we were increasingly hearing from the protesters was again no reform just get rid of this regime. But now suddenly at least a portion of the protesters a minority but nevertheless started asking for military uh intervention from the outside. The argument being that the population no longer is in a position to overthrow the government on its own. It has to have military intervention. So you had these protests again occurring of course but instead of being from a position of strength as they could have been had the sanctions been lifted now people were out there out of desperation and despair protesting from a position of weakness. Um and I think this is a very important lesson for us to understand because yes sanctions can destroy and devastate the economies of these countries but we have almost no examples in which the sanctions lead to successful protest movements that overthrow the government. More protest but less successful protests and more desperate protest. That's exactly the pattern that we have seen here and it tells us how counterproductive US policy has been. if we assume that the goal actually has been to see Iran move in a more liberal and and democratic direction. Now, the US government has admitted to also arming factions within Iran. Can you speak about that? Yes. So, we had Trump himself reveal it to uh a Fox News reporter that the US had been sending arms to the Kurdish rebels in Iran. Um, and on top of that, of course, we saw how both the Israelis were saying that they were on the ground. How we saw the uh former head of the CIA, Mike Pompeo, saying that the Mossad and others are on the ground and that armament, etc. have been shipped. I think what is emerging here with these revelations or admissions is that the protests in December and January were overwhelmingly peaceful and they were overwhelmingly by people who just came out out of their frustration and anger at the repression and mismanagement of the economy by the Iranian government. But there were also elements there who operated under the shadow of these protesters who the protesters had no relationship with and did not know about, who were armed and trained by Israel or the United States, who used extensive violence, burning banks, burning mosques, burning fire stations, killing a lot of um uh police and other members of the Basie for instance, which is something we had not I just want to interrupt you. The best seizure are these popular militias the popular militias for people who don't know which are used by the government to repress the population but you know despite the fact that they are of course extremely unpopular we had not seen this level of violence from protesters before the protesters were extensively peaceful with a very strong nonviolent discipline. Uh a person I spoke to who has essentially attended all protests in Iran since uh said that in if anyone started using violence or throwing stones at uh shops etc other protesters would intervene to keep a nonviolent discipline. This time around he said he was out protesting in ou in in in January but then he saw people dressed in black that seemed to move very coordinated planned way uh using violence and he saw no one intervening because people were as afraid of those violent elements as they were of the repressive representatives of the state and this is a phenomenon we had not seen before in Iran in the last years or so. And again, when Trump is coming out and saying, "Hey, we armed these people." It frankly makes sense. The picture is starting to become complete. Well, and that those armed attacks became the excuse for wholesale slaughter. We don't really know. I mean, Iranians killed in the streets, maybe more, but they became the excuse to gun people down all mass. Yeah. The Iranian government essentially started gunning people down on mass not making a distinction between you know uh peaceful legitimate protesters and others who have been trained and armed by foreign u uh services. Uh and as a result you had frankly a massacre. You know some people are throwing out the number etc. see no evidence for that. But reality is there is evidence for around and people killed is a ridiculous and horrific number of people killed by the Iranian government in just two days. Uh and that tells you something. It tells you how bad the situation was. Uh how how u perhaps desperate even the Iranian government was uh thinking that it was losing control and then allowed its militias to just use violence in an indiscriminate manner. There's an internet blackout. It's hard to get information. Um, but one senses from a distance, you know more than I do, that the mood within Iran is changing as Iranians understand that this is not about regime change. This is about the the destruction of the physical infrastructure of Iran to do to Iran, what Israel did to Gaza, what it's doing as I speak to southern Lebanon, and what it did to Syria um to turn Iran into a failed state. Absolutely. I think it's starting to become clear. I think it was clear to a lot of people, but for those um portions of the Iranian population who out of desperation thought perhaps military intervention can help them, it's starting to become very clear to them that this was never about them. This was never about their freedom. this was a campaign that had nothing to do with those things and that the goal of the Israelis always have been to turn Iran into a failed state because that takes Iran off of the geopolitical chessboard and Iran can no longer pose a challenge to Israel's designs for hegemony in the region if Iran turns into a failed state. Um, and I've written about this going years back that that was the Israeli objective with uh any war that they would be engaging or or starting. Uh and now I think it's become clear to a lot of folks that um you know they're they're they're not out there to help them but to destroy the country as a whole. And we're seeing at least on the side of folks inside of Iran that um uh you know more and more people are speaking out against this war even people who may have been part of the protest early on or who perhaps even were in favor of the war that they are shifting sides. Still some people I'm sure this is a huge country million people. you can find a lot of different opinions but the trend I think is quite clear and I think um what is not happening with the same clarity is within the diaspora and I think part of the reason is for many of those who took these strong positions in favor of the war they've essentially entered no man's land they don't know where to go from here uh and as a result they're just doubling down uh on the position that they held before and just becoming more and more radical to be able to essentially handle the cognitive dissonance for uh that they have put themselves in and put uh helped put their their compatriots in inside of Iran. We had a similar phenomenon happening in the s with a group called the Mujah which was an opposition group on the US labeled as a terrorist group by the United States. Exactly. Up until uh they sided with Saddam Hussein during the Iraq Iran war. They actually were a pretty popular group prior to that as part of the opposition to the Shaw. But because they sided with that invader, uh it was essentially their death now. And instead of reassessing uh and and rethinking what they had done, their response was to just double down and become more and more dependent on any foreign entity, a rival of Iran, that would seek use of them. And as a result, essentially they turn themselves into a hated group that became like a mercenary for any of Iran's geopolitical rivals. I fear that the monarchists may actually go in the same direction because they made this massive bet on this idea that bombing their own country would bring about democracy instead of it's bringing about death and destruction. Um and uh and I think it's very hard for them to manage that. So I think they will frankly double down instead of trying to extricate uh themselves from this situation. Unfortunately I just want to close about the use of nuclear weapons. Um that is you know especially with Israel there's no been no Israel has certainly if they've learned anything with the almost three years of genocide it's that they can kill with impunity. not only with impunity, but they can be supplied with billions of dollars of armaments to continue to kill with impunity. Um, and yet they are not achieving their objectives. As you pointed out correctly, it is Iran that will determine, I think, when this thing ends and they can through asymmetrical warfare and crippling the global economy, they have uh, you know, they have us by the throat. I I know it's speculation, but I I unfortunately, you know, my fear is that we can't rule it out. And can you talk about that? Yeah. No, it's it's extremely concerning because this is just a scenario the United States should not be in. But I'm hearing it increasingly from people, including former officials, that fear that this is the direction that Trump may be going in. that his desperation for something that can turn this war around, something that can allow him to declare victory and end it even without an agreement um requires him from to take actions of this kind. Perhaps it could have worked if there was a a successful effort to extract the uh highlyenriched uranium, the % enriched uranium that the Iranians have somewhere underneath the ground around Fordo, which they apparently have not been able to access or extract themselves. But this would be a tremendously difficult operation, probably quite a few American deaths. But Trump seems to think that he needs something of that kind in order to say, "I won the war. it's now over and I'm going to leave and that this is then pushing him in the direction of more seriously considering nuclear options and and from what I hear there is that pressure from Israel as well. I don't know this for certain. Again, um there's a lot of communic, you know, a lot of information that is flowing around right now, a lot of speculation. We don't know any of this for certain, but folks are pointing to the fact that Trump is using the language of World War II, for instance, total surrender, the type of language that preceded the bombing of Hiroshima and Nakasaki. uh and and they're very worried that because Trump doesn't have any other options, he doesn't, you know, he's doesn't seem to be willing to take the deescalatory offramps that are available to him because it will be an admission that this war was a failure. It will be an admission that he did not succeed that as a result he may actually go so desperate that he will take uh escalatory actions such as using nuclear weapons. And just to close, what would be the Iranian response? How fast can they I mean at that point it's impossible to know because we don't even know if if this were to be used and it feels uh frankly uncomfortable even talking about this publicly given the fact that it is such an unthinkable option or should be such an unthinkable option. Um no idea whatsoever what the Iranian response would be and if they even could respond in any way, shape or form because it would be completely unclear um uh because it all depends on exactly where they would hit etc. But again, I don't think we are there yet. I hope we don't get to that point. But the fact that this is increasingly being discussed in Washington as a potential possibility, it tells you about how badly this war is going. Great. Thank you, Trita. Uh, and I want to thank uh Sophia, Max, Thomas, and Victor who produced the show. You can find me at chrisedges.substack.com. Thank you so much for having me on, Chris.
As deadly riots burn Iranian cities, Western media ignores the shocking wave of violence, turning instead to US government-funded NGOs for data. The one-sided portrayal has helped push Trump to the brink of authorizing renewed US attacks.
Western media has ignored a growing trove of video evidence showing terrorist tactics deployed across Iran by protesters described by Amnesty International and Human Rights Watch as “largely peaceful.” Recent videos published both by Iranian state media and anti-government forces reveal public lynchings of unarmed guards, the torching of mosques, arson attacks on municipal buildings, marketplaces and fire stations, and mobs of armed gunmen opening fire in the heart of Iranian cities.
Instead, Western media has focused almost exclusively on violence attributed to the Iranian government. In doing so, they have relied heavily on death counts compiled by Iranian diaspora groups funded by the National Endowment for Democracy (NED), the regime change arm of the US government, and whose boards of directors are filled with committed neoconservatives.
The NED has taken credit for advancing the “Woman, Life, Freedom” protests which filled Iranian cities throughout 2023 – and which also featured gruesome acts of violence ignored by Western media and human rights NGOs. Today, the NED is far from alone among the intelligence-aligned actors seeking to fuel the chaos inside Iran.
The Israeli spying and assassination agency known as Mossad issued a message from its official Farsi language account on Twitter/X urging Iranians to escalate their regime change activities, pledging that it would be supporting them on the ground.
“Go out together into the streets. The time has come,” Mossad instructed Iranians. “We are with you. Not only from a distance and verbally. We are with you in the field.”
Toppling Tehran through terror
Protests began in Iran in early January 2026 when merchants took to the streets to demonstrate against rising inflation rates triggered by Western sanctions. Iran’s government responded sympathetically to the bazaar protests, providing them with police protection. However, these demonstrations quickly dissolved, as an amorphous mass of anti-government elements seized the moment to launch a violent insurrection encouraged by governments from Israel to the US – and by self-proclaimed “Crown Prince” Reza Pahlavi, who has branded government workers and state media outlets as “legitimate targets.”
On January 9, the city of Mashhad became the scene of some of the most intense riots, as anti-government forces torched fire stations, burning fire fighters alive, while setting buses alight, attacking city workers, vandalizing Metro stations and causing over $18 million in damage, according to local municipal authorities.
In Kermanshah, where anti-government rioters shot and killed 3 year-old Melina Asadi, groups of militants were filmed firing automatic weapons at police. In cities from Hamedan to Lorestan, rioters have filmed themselves beating unarmed security guards to death for attempting to impede their rampages.
https://x.com/MaxBlumenthal/status/2010453405698064552?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E2010453405698064552%7Ctwgr%5E10b11e49813aaa0630e7df216d60c45f826cd336%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fthegrayzone.com%2F2026%2F01%2F12%2Fwestern-media-riots-iran-govt-regime-change%2F Max Blumenthal @MaxBlumenthal
Kermanshah was infested with armed militants and rioters when 3 year old Melina was killed
The Israel-controlled Trump administration brands unarmed American protesters as terrorists and supports terrorists in Iran
VIDEO | Funeral procession in Iran's Kermanshah, where a flood of people turned out to mourn Melina Asadi, a 3-year-old girl who was killed in the province after being shot by anti-government rioters.
Melina was murdered three days ago while on her way to a pharmacy with her
Footage has emerged from the central Iranian city of rioters attacking a public bus and setting it aflame on January 10.
In Tehran, meanwhile, mobs of rioters have attacked the historic Abazar Mosque, burning its interior, while others conducted arson attacks and burned copies of the Quran inside the Grand Mosque of Sarableh and the Muhammad ibn Musa al-Kadhim shrine in Kuzestan.
Hussein bin Saeed Ahvazi @SayyidHussein
The footage shows damage being inflicted on ABUZAR #mosque. In recent days, claims had circulated that mosques were being used as bases for repression or as detention sites. However, the images indicate that the mosque was closed at the time, with no signs of unusual activity or detention inside.
Rioters have set fire to a large municipal building in the heart of the city of Karaj, while burning the marketplace to the ground in central Rasht. In Borujen, anti-government hooligans reportedly torched a historic library filled with ancient texts during a night of looting and destruction.
Max Blumenthal @MaxBlumenthal
Rioters burned the marketplace in the Iranian city of Rasht to a crisp
Netanyahu, Trump and every leader of the collective West has endorsed this
Of course, they are a model of tolerance toward protesters in their own cities
None of these incidents have elicited any reaction from Western media outlets or governments, even after the Iranian foreign ministry obliged ambassadors from Britain, France, Germany, and Italy to view footage of the violence carried out by rioters firsthand.
According to the Iranian government, over 100 police and security officers have been killed during the unrest. However, a pair of Iranian NGOs based in Washington and funded by the US government has set the death toll on the government’s side at a much lower figure. These groups have become the go-to source for Western media on the protests.
Regime change lobbyists set the agenda
In assessing the death toll in Iran, outlets throughout the US and Europe have depended on two NGOs based in Washington and funded by the US government’s National Endowment for Democracy: the Abdorrahman Boroumand Center for Human Rights in Iran and Human Rights Activists in Iran.
A 2024 press release by the NED explicitly described the Abdorrahman Boroumand Center for Human Rights in Iran as “a partner of the National Endowment for Democracy (NED).”
Elsewhere, a 2021 statement from Human Rights Activists in Iran states that the group “expanded its network and decided to start receiving financial aid from the National Endowment for Democracy (NED), a non-governmental and non-profit organization based in the United States” after it was accused by the Iran government of ties to the CIA in 2010.
The NED was created under the watch of the Reagan administration’s CIA director, William Casey, to enable the government to continue meddling abroad despite widespread distrust in US intelligence services. One of its founders, Allen Weinstein, famously admitted, “a lot of what we do today was done covertly 25 years ago by the CIA.”
While failing to acknowledge the NGO’s funding from NED, The Washington Post and ABC News have cited the Abdorrahman Boroumand Center prominently in their coverage of Iranian protests. Seated on the Center’s board of directors is Francis Fukuyama, the ideologue who signed the Project for the New American Century’s founding letter – perhaps the most important manifesto of modern neoconservatism.
Figures from the suggestively-named “Human Rights Activists in Iran” have circulated even more widely, with the NGO’s recent estimated death toll of 544 people cited by dozens of US and Israeli mainstream outlets across the political spectrum, as well as by Dropsite. The “shadow CIA” intelligence firm Stratfor has also cited the NGO in an article entitled, “Protests in Iran Provide a Window for U.S. and/or Israeli Intervention.”
With the precise number of casualties from the protests still difficult to ascertain, a motley crew of online influencers has filled the information void with overblown, dubiously sourced claims. These propagandists include the noted Jewish supremacist Trump confidant Laura Loomer, who crowed that “the death count of Iranian protesters killed by the Islamic regimes’ forces is now over 6,000!,” citing a supposed “source in the Intel community.”
The digital casino Polymarket also inflated the death toll, claiming without sourcing that “over 10,000” people had been killed by “Iranian Forces [using] Automatic Rifles on Protesters,” and falsely stating that Iran had “lost nearly all control” of three of its five largest cities.
In recent months, Polymarket has become notorious for allowing insiders to abuse advanced knowledge of political developments – such as the recent US military assault on Caracas and their abduction of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro – to rake in hundreds of thousands of dollars. The self-described “world’s largest prediction market” was established with a major investment from AI warlord Peter Thiel, and now features Donald Trump Jr. as an advisor.
Polymarket spreads neocon disinformation to manufacture consent for bombing Iran
It is also paying influencers all across this site to popularize its brand
The "world's largest prediction market" relies on psychological warfare to manipulate betting markets
Polymarket @Polymarket Jan 9
BREAKING:
Iranian Regime security forces have lost nearly all control of Iran’s:
- Capital city, Tehran - 2nd-largest city, Mashhad - 5th-largest city, Shiraz
7:44 AM · Jan 12, 2026
By spreading clearly inflated death tolls, regime change activists and Trump cronies are apparently goading the notoriously gullible president into launching another military assault on Tehran.
In a January 7 assessment of the protests, Stratfor described the chaos in Iran’s streets as an enticing opportunity for war, writing, “While unlikely to collapse the regime, the ongoing unrest could open the door for Israel or the United States to conduct covert or overt activities aimed at further destabilizing the Iranian government, either indirectly by encouraging the protests or directly via military action against Iranian leaders.”
However, the CIA contractor acknowledged that “renewed military strikes on Iran would also likely put an end to the current protest movement by leading instead to a wider display of Iranian nationalism and unity, a pattern observed after U.S. and Israeli strikes in 2025.”
‘Locked and loaded’
Iran’s latest round of anti-government protests has predictably received hearty endorsements from a host of Western leaders, including Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and US President Donald Trump.
“If Iran shots [sic] and violently kills peaceful protesters, which is their custom, the United States of America will come to their rescue,” Trump announced. “We are locked and loaded and ready to go.”
Days later, Trump threatened Iran again: “You better not start shooting [protesters] – because we’ll start shooting too.” Then, on Jan. 12, Trump decreed that any country caught trading with Iran would face a 25% tariff on goods exchanged with the US.
Now, Trump is reportedly mulling an attack, considering options ranging from cyber-warfare to airstrikes. However, the pace of the anti-government protests appears to have slowed, with relative calm returning to major cities.
As the dust clears, millions of Iranian citizens are pouring into the streets of cities from Tehran to Mashhad to express their indignation at the riots, to denounce the foreign elements that helped spur the regime change rampage, and to proclaim their support for the government. But in newsrooms across the West, giving voice to these masses of Iranian demonstrators seems forbidden.
Max Blumenthal Editor The editor-in-chief of The Grayzone, Max Blumenthal is an award-winning journalist and the author of several books, including best-selling Republican Gomorrah, Goliath, The Fifty One Day War, and The Management of Savagery. He has produced print articles for an array of publications, many video reports, and several documentaries, including Killing Gaza. Blumenthal founded The Grayzone in 2015 to shine a journalistic light on America's state of perpetual war and its dangerous domestic repercussions.
