Iran’s Hormuz Strategy CRUSHES US Naval Blockade, Trump is TRAPPED | Larry Johnson
Danny Haiphong
Streamed live 87 minutes ago #iran #trump #israel
Former CIA Analyst Larry Johnson joins to discuss the massive trap Iran has laid for the US in the Strait of Hormuz as Trump's desperation brings us to the brink of an even more catastrophic war.
Transcript
It's your host Danny Haiphong. I am joined by former CIA analyst, geopolitical commentator, and analyst Larry Johnson.
Larry, good to see you again.
Hey, I'm here and I'm glad you're up late in China.
Yeah, I am here in China. Uh, and I'm so glad to reconnect with you. You know,
Larry, I guess I wanted to just begin with the flurry of developments over the last day, I guess, or so.
Yeah. in the war in Iran. It's it's becoming very confusing. Maybe you could just begin with outlining where we are
because right now Trump just said he controls the United States controls the straight of Hormuz. They border another ship it appears. But then there's all
this data coming out about Iran and how much oil they're actually able to ship out. It's quite a lot. Um not only
out of the straight of Hormuz, but into the global marketplace. And of course,
uh, we have the whole, well, three to five days ceasefire, we're going to get a deal, and then, oh, this could go on forever and ever. Uh, what's going on,
Larry, with this war? How has it seems like Donald Trump has kind of trapped himself in this, and the United States has, but , I'm curious on what your assessment is of the situation so far.
Yeah. No, I agree. I agree with you. U,
Trump is trapped. Um and he's developing, you know, the taco meme of Trump always chickens out is becoming quite prominent and prevalent.
The um you know, the deadline was Tuesday and the the Iranians had presented the United States with some very, you know,
specific precise points about what they wanted, what they were willing to negotiate on. And um the United States
refused to accept those and introduce new conditions of its own. And Iran sort of
the the the the breaking point was the sanctions were supposed to be lifted
and there was not to be a blockade and Trump insisted that they'd go with a with a blockade.
So, um, , Iran said, "Okay, we're not showing up. We're we're not going to participate." Uh, that then led Trump
to, , , when they was clear they weren't going to show. They weren't responding to us, you know, frantic US
messages talking, you know, they send a message to the Pakistanis and call the Pakistanis, have they, have they answered yet? you know, sort of sort of
reminiscent of some teenager who's got a crush on a girl but can't talk to her directly and always just going through another friend trying to find out did
she say anything about me? Did she talk about me?
So then Trump extended the ceasefire on the pretext that there's great division within the Iranian leadership
and on the premise that um the
Iranians are have not presented a precise plan. You know, both of those are false. They the 10-point plan is the
10-point plan. Doesn't get much more precise than that. And as far as splits within the leadership,
sorry, but whether it's Galibbah who's like the head of the he's the speaker of their legislature, the head
uh legislature the head of IRGC, they're all they're all singing from the same sheet of
music. So this this blockade is in in some many aspects it's more symbolic. is political theater for the United States.
They get to show the Oh, look at our look at our Marines landing on this tanker. We're taking it over. Well,
nobody asks how many tankers have actually left the Gulf. Oh, that's numbers now like 40. Oh, and and we've
stopped how many? Three, maybe four. So,
um, the United States does not have enough ships in the area to actually do a a complete blockade. Number one.
Number two, they have to do it out in the Indian Ocean. They don't do it near the Straight of Hormuz because they could be hit with Iranian missiles.
Um, so you know, the Iran is going to continue to work through this, but yet the policy makers and Trump is being told, they're being told a pack of lies.
And I don't think it's just a matter,
you know, Trump engages in what's called confabulation, where he says something that's an outand-out lie, but he believes it's true. But, , others in
his administration, they appear to be getting the same sort of nonsense. You hear Scott Besson talking about it. Oh,
we're going to we're going to crush the economy of Iran. They're going to run out of money. We're going to take Car Island. All all their oil wells are
going to run dry because they can't pump oil because there's no place to store all this is nothing but nonsense.
And but the US believes it and they're hoping and hoping and hoping that somehow this block so-called
blockade is going to compel Iran to make concessions or surrender or change
leadership or you know some magical thing. It'll be just as effective as the US blockade on Cuba has been for 66
years. Any minute now those Cubans boy they're going to give up.
What? No, you're muted.
Yeah, sorry about that. Yeah, thanks. We I even saw recently, Larry, that Havana is starting to light up again um with
the assistance of Russia. So, that not even that blockade has been foolproof by any means. But um you know, President
Trump has announced that the the US Navy needs to shoot down and kill any boat that's trying to mine the straight
of Hormuz. Uh he's also said that he has total control over it, which is interesting. But this is the the news that I wanted to ask you about there.
There's supposedly, this is Israeli media, of course, we have to take with a grain of salt. Israeli media is saying that the Trump administration has
outlined its next steps for the war if negotiations are not renewed and that after the extended ceasefire expires,
the United States would launch a military operation. This is what I find a a real kicker. Described as more
intense than previous strikes with the campaign expected to last several days before concluding. What do you think of this? I mean, what does this tell you,
Larry, about the the way that the United States, Israel, of course, those aggressors that are party to
this war, how you know, what situation they're in right now? That's a very odd thing to leak out into the public, but your their thoughts on it.
Well, first let me say that this worrying about boats mining the straight of hor they've already mined it. I mean,
I was being told that they did a heavy saturation mining last week. So, you know, that horse has already left the barn.
So, that that's just again, this is Trump pandering to the American public,
trying to create a narrative, create an image. I'm in control. I'm acting. I'm doing important things. Um
the the as far as the plans go,
the United States, they've got they are intact. You know, they're going to hit they're going to hit power, you know, power grids, power generating centers.
Uh they're going to target logistics.
They're going to really try to hurt Iran.
Iran knows that. and Iran by the same token is prepared to retaliate
immediately once that starts. And so that's where this calculation of what the what the West is going to do isn't taking into account necessarily what
Iran is going to do back to it. Uh the US presence I I wrote a piece last night
outlining there at least 15 bases facilities where the US troops have operated. Some are were under US
control. Some are under the control of the host nation particularly in Saudi Arabia.
Um the the majority of those have been hit and significantly damaged to the
point that US forces are not really able to be based there. U this next goround I think will wipe them all out. Uh so
that's Iran's goal is to be sure that the United States is not going to attack it again. Well, one way to do that is
you wipe out all the US bases because then it makes it very difficult for the United States to launch any kind of attack or at least you'd have ample
warning that it was going going to happen. So, you know, they're going to carry on that campaign for days. Then
what they're hoping that Iran's going to plead, oh, stop it. We can't stand the pain. That's you know, look at what the Japanese endured during World War II.
they suffered far more pain and damage and it was only when the Russians entered the or the then Soviet Union
entered the war that they decided okay we surrender we give up. So th this
is you know they're a as they take meaningless albeit harmful military
action harmful in terms of costing lives and wounding human beings.
the global economy, the situation on the global economy is getting worse. Just out of curiosity,
when did you buy your plane tickets to go to China? Oh,
I actually bought them well well before the the February 28th. So, um I did not experience the
massive price increases that are very obvious now trying to fly anywhere.
Yeah, I I the prices my understanding have tripled and quadrupled.
Um so you know those impacts are going to
continue. Uh countries that rely upon import of oil, there's no more oil to be
imported. That's now cut off large in large measure or what is there available is going to be up $150 a barrel, $200 a barrel.
So that it's going to be that economic issue that's going to really force Trump and his team to figure out what
what the hell they're going to do because they recognize if he keeps you know he wants to take credit for keeping the straight of Hormuz closed. Good.
You're you're depriving the world of 20%
of its oil and f and 35% of its fertilizer and 25% of its liquid natural gas and god knows how much of its helium.
Well, Larry, the reports are in that Iran is beginning to, you know,
accumulate and consolidate get together these tolls that they've been
instituting that now they're collecting them for, you know, use. And I want to ask you about you know when it comes to
Iran's overall strategy around the straight of four moves because we get a lot of misconceptions I think from the United States from the western media
about what Iran is actually doing and how Iran has actually done this and I think it's really relevant now given
that the entire war is centered on this waterway it seems like and the Trump
administration is claiming that not only does do the United States now control it, but Iran's leadership is in
complete disarray and they don't know what they're doing and that's why it's going to take a little while for a peace you know any kind of real peace talks
to happen and come into fruition in anything significant. So your thoughts on Iran's actual strategy here given that it hasn't budged and now it's
collecting the tolls in a significant way and that is likely to have an impact I'm guessing but what's your thoughts?
Well, yeah, actually this the straight of hormones is is pretty unique. Um,
when when you put it in the global context, like I' i've heard others, you know, that that professor Jiang and
Gordon Ch is it Gordon Chung um they were on talking about, oh, China could do that to the Malan Straits.
It just shows they they don't understand because Iran doesn't need if it if Iran didn't have a
single boat, didn't have a single underwater drone,
uh didn't have anybody stationed along the shore,
they could still shut down the straight of Hormuz because they've got short range ballistic missiles, they've got
coastal defense cruise missiles, and They have drones and all they have to do is tell people it's closed. If you try
to go through there, we're going to hit you.
And so that's where you say, "Well, we got to solve this militarily." Good luck with that. Because the only way you could really solve that militarily is
you would have to have a ground force land and move inland 100 to 200 miles inland because some of
those missiles have that range and more. So if you're going to actually control it and shut down that kind of threat. Now, um,
20 Oh, good lord. Now, 40 years ago during the Iraq, the US sponsored, USF
funded, US supported war of Iraq on Iran.
Uh, the Iranians tried to mine the Persian Gulf and mine the straight of Hormuz. And at that time, US mine
sweepers could come through, clear up the mines because there was no danger of them getting shot at with a drone or a
cruise missile or a short-range ballistic missile because Iran didn't have that in its arsenal. Didn't have that capability.
Well, they do now. And Trump was just out claiming that, oh, US mind sweepers are working in the straight of Hormuz.
No, they're not. It's just a lie. Uh I mean good lord the the man is can't stop
it and and some attribute it to the you know the preffrontal dementia
um which you know that the preffrontal lobe dementia you know I'm not a
physician but I do see symptoms of very odd strange behavior and how he
talks and what he says etc. So straight of Hormuz is it's it's closed and Iran I I don't think when when they
first closed it I don't think they had actually thought through the full strategy you know they had planned this out. I think it's it's sort of growing
upon him saying, "Hey man, what we got the United we got the world in a chokeold
and so trying to figure out the policy and I think part of the policy is, hey,
if you're on the friends and family program, you know, you're not going to pay as much and your ship gets to come in and out. If you're not on the friends
and family program, you're going to pay a stiff fee and you're going to pay it in Chinese yuan. you're not going to pay it in US dollars.
So this is this has really upended the international financial world as well.
Uh so the the full the full weight and consequences of this act of closing the street of Hormuza. I mean it's you
know we're now on week eight. U let's see we got 23 and 31. That's 50 54
and 5. Yeah. So, we're we're two days shy of eight weeks.
Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. And this war continues to morph and change character to a
degree. But overall, we continue to see Iran remain firm in whatever form it
has to take. Uh in the United States more and more so looking very chaotic,
very desperate in its movements. And I wanted to ask you, Larry, you know,
given what you just said about the mind sweepers, , that they're absolutely they can't be operating there. And in large part, the reason why they can't be
operating room is because they would be attacked. They would they would have to,
I mean, I mean, Iran has already attacked in the last couple days , you know, ships that were trying to break the new regime, the the rules.
And um, and they've docked a few of those. I think two of the three boats they docked. So, , there's a report,
Larry, in the CBS news, I don't know if you saw it, that says Iran's military is more capable than the Trump administration is publicly acknowledging, , the sources that they
use are saying that yet the 60% of the naval arm of the IRGC is still in existence. So, that's this is CBS News talking about this.
Uh, help us understand how like first of all, why is this information coming out now? And what help us understand how
it's actually affecting decision-m because yes we are here in the eighth week and we are now into more than a second week of like ceasefire Kabuki theater kind of thing.
Well, when that kind, you know, that's a that's a leak of government information.
That's a leak of intelligence. And that's a sign that there are people within in the either the policy community who have access to that
intelligence or people within the intelligence community that want but they want that information out and the
information is to help start painting the other narrative. You know, that's that's been a long practice in Washington DC when when you got policy
disagreements, then information that's classified leaks because it's it's been put out to help change the argument,
change the perspective. Um the the amount of lying and selfdeception though that goes on in DC is just it's truly
staggering. Um and the one example with respect to Iran is this notion that oh their leadership
is fractured. The IRGC's running everything. The civilians have no input. No,
that's just not true. But the West pushes that out there, I guess, to make to try to justify, well, this is why we
can't get anything done. not not admitting that the reason we're not making we're not willing to make any concessions that would make sense. No,
no, we're going to blame it on them.
They're disorganized and and chaotic that this is not confined this, you know, this phenomena, this kind of spin
is not confined to Iran. You're s we saw it, good god, yesterday, day before with an article by Seymour Hirs. Now,
Sai Sai Sai has been a friend of mine for good god 50
uh going on 43 years. And he he's he's not real happy with me these days because I've called him out on his
articles. His articles are complete horseshit.
In this latest one, he claims that the Russian army has not is incompetent and hasn't made any advances in two years.
And you're going, what?
They've well, they've gone so slow, you know, they then the Soviets conquered the Germans in in four years and and
then the Russia can't conquer Ukraine in four years.
and say, "Okay, let if if that's going to be our standard, then let's apply it evenly across the board." What the hell happened to the United States in Afghanistan?
20 years and failed to defeat the Taliban. So, you know what? Sai, shut the hell up. At least develop, you know,
he's old. Uh he's lost his critical thinking skills. He's he's just being spoonfed and taking what he's getting.
But but the point was they they portray Russia in a way that is just simply not
true. And the the problem with that is if I keep telling you lies about something and then you act on those
lies, well then I'm actually helping you make a mistake or put yourself at risk or and and that's exactly what's
happening to the United these these lies about Iran, the lies about Russia are leading to decisions that are both
weakening and endangering the United States and its citizens.
Yeah, th those are those are great points, Larry. And you know maybe now you can help us understand what exactly
CBS could be talking about here because it's so interesting to witness a s
a sitting US president administration that continues to claim Iran has been obliterated now claims that the leadership is in disarray and yet
uh is only really at this moment waging a a blockade
in in in its overall posture toward Iran and was the one that stopped hostil
stopped hostilities. They they stopped they it was the United States that called the ceasefires. The United States that's been calling on Iran for
ceasefire for a long time now during this period. So what exactly do you believe the US is hesitating about? It's
obvious that there's a big portion of the administration um that is very much interested in continuing this war or we
wouldn't be in this position. So let me talk a little bit about the intelligence process.
And so like when I was an analyst, I I rarely dealt with public media. Uh you
know, I didn't didn't even read what stories were being published in the Washington Post and New York Times. You know, my task was answering the
question, well, will will the Honduran will the Honduran government that was somewhat civilian controlled but always
under the threat of a military coup? And there was always a lot of jockeying back and forth between these factions and the Honduran military.
Um will they continue to support US policy? That was that was the critical issue. And so how did I how did I
cover that? Well, I had to I had to rely upon cables and you know messages sent from state department from the embassy in to goalpa back to state department.
Uh then we relied upon if there was any human sources that CIA had what they
were saying and those were published in a CIA message they were called TDs.
uh it goes back to the old the original days of CIA when they call it stood for telegraphic distribution TD well it's
now you know digitally released um then you'd have intercepts of
conversations um intercepts of messages you know this was this was in the day this was in the
days before real text messaging and email became prominent you know so I'm a dinosaur in that regard. But you you
know so you have to look at all of that and evaluate okay what's going on you know what are what's what's their motives you know the idea would be to
have somebody who was let's say u part of the president of Honduras chief you know his chief of staff or somebody so
you knew exactly what he was thinking exactly what he was being told but if you don't have that then you have to start doing some reading tea leaves and
always with hanging in the back of your mind the recognition that some of this information you're getting may have been deliberately provided to de deceive you.
You know, we saw that in, you know,
bucketloads prior to the invasion of Iraq in 2003 where there was deliberate information
about quote Saddam's weapons of mass destruction, particularly chemical weapons that were we're being told. What
the American people were not told at the time is that the stockpile of chemical weapons Saddam had acquired came from
us, the United States. We're the ones who purchased and provided the precursor chemicals that were used to construct
those chemical weapons. We were the ones who provided Saddam with intelligence on where to launch those attacks.
So, we knew a lot more about it than what was being led on, but we created this false public narrative.
So, you know, let's jump ahead now to how do we know what's going on with within the Iranian leadership? Well,
ideally, we'd have intelligence assets on the inside. We do not. I'm 100%
convinced we do not. Otherwise, we wouldn't be saying and acting in such a ridiculous way. Um, so we rely upon what's called liaison reporting. Well,
liaison reporting means we're getting information from the Israelis and the Israelis keep, oh, we got this great source. We know exactly what's going on.
They provide us that information. Who are we to argue with the Israelis?
you know, so um it is this is a way that you can manipulate the intelligence process to
create an outcome. You know, someone like Israel can manipulate it. Uh and the United States will go along with it.
So, that's where I come, you know,
come down on what I do is I simply I have to go with public statements. So I look at what what is the the civilian
president? What's Peskian saying? What is the foreign minister of Rashi saying?
What's the head of the IRGC saying? What is the head of the legislature saying?
And you go, "Huh? They're all saying basically the same thing. There's no they're not calling each other, you know, insulting names and questioning each other's mother's sexual history."
No, they're they're saying basically laying out about u they're all on board.
So they're they're singing from the same sheet of music. So that's where when I hear Trump say something like this, this
tells me that either that's what he wants to believe and he's making it up or they've actually been receiving
intelligence from Iran, I mean about Iran, from Israel that's painting this picture and they're buying it.
Larry, why is Trump Can we pause Can we pause just for a second? Yeah. Yeah. Yeah, my boss is calling.
All right. All right. Yeah. Yeah, while Larry's doing that, you know, I I definitely want to
uh discuss now there's this it seems like ceasefire Kabuki theater and all
kinds of messages, mixed messages being sent by Trump himself, his administration, about what kind of deadline is now,
uh being held over Iran's head with regard to settling this conflict,
resuming peace talks. first Larry or at least recently it's three to five days and then Carolyn Levit came out
today and said oh no no no no there's no deadline no timetable which could mean a few things and now with this report that
the US is planning strikes if Iran isn't coming back but it could doesn't come back to the table but it could mean a couple of things it could mean that the
United States it doesn't want to have to act in a certain short period of time
by placing kind of its own ultimatum and and Iran calling its bluff. Or it could mean that truthfully this war seems
to be one that the United States actually wants to to end that that it
wants to get out of it but can't. Um what do you make of this switch from 3 to 5 days and it's been happening ever
since the first the initial ceasefire was set to expire. Uh we had so much theater around, oh his van's gonna go to Islamabad or he he was going, didn't go.
And now we have, oh well, Trump is saying everything's all good. We're gonna go talk to Iran very soon and it's going to be great. And then you have
Carolyn Levit saying, well, no, this isn't this this could go on for a long time, either because we don't want to
act right away or perhaps they want to continue the war for a long time.
It's hard to know which one, but your thoughts on this? Well, again, it's just a simple matter of sitting down and and doing some critical thinking about what what's going on.
Ask yourself a number of questions.
Which country within 10 days of starting the war was um asking for a ceasefire?
Was it Iran or was it u Israel? Well, or the United States. And in this case,
it was the United States.
And it has been the United States throughout. We've we've seen no evidence whatsoever of Iran saying, "Oh my god,
we we can't stand the pain." In fact,
what what we see is the opposite of people coming out into the streets every night in Thran and in other cities
around Iran in support of the government. In fact, um, you know, when the they got to the end of the
ceasefire, the they were jubilant. The Iranians were jubilant. So, you know,
they see that they they correctly understand that they are fighting this global superpower to a standstill. Not only to a
standstill to a to a point that it is actually harming the United States.
So um then you have to step back and say okay who has what military options.
Um Iran is in a defensive position. It's always better to fight from a defensive
position because you can minimize casualties and it forces the other side to expend more resources.
And in this case we have the reality of the limits of US military power. Now people say what are you talking about? We got this 1.5 billion trillion dollar budget for the department of defense. We got the army, the navy, the marine corps, the air force. Nobody can match us in the world. It's not about how expensive your army is, and how much money you spent on it. You have to step back and say, okay, what can it actually do?
Take the Navy. What can the Navy do with respect to getting close to Iranian shores, where we found out, not just here, but we found out eight months ago off the coast of Yemen, that the Navy has limitations. It got driven out of the Red Sea by the Houthis. And now we see that the Abraham Lincoln got like within 200 miles of the Iranian coast, and was getting shellacked with drones and missiles. It took some damage reportedly, according to Trump, and it retreated. It had to back off. That was funny actually the way he did it too. So he had to retreat out to 700 miles off the coast. Well, once you do that, you've immediately limited the effect of your air power off that carrier. And that was the original purpose, was to bring air power closer to shore, without having to actually seize an airfield. So now the Navy is limited in what it can do because the weapon systems that the United States or that Iran has, can actually destroy our ships.
We had that actually happen 40 years ago. In the Persian Gulf, when we were supporting Iraq against Iran, and an Iraqi pilot fired an exocet missile or a couple of exocet missiles, against the USS Stark thinking it was an Iranian ship, and killed about 19 US sailors. The Iraqis apologized profusely. But then after that, Iraq got pissed off at the CIA because the CIA was also providing weapons to Iran during the whole Iran Contra business. And so they insisted that going forward they would only deal with US military personnel for delivering intelligence. And that's where my friend and deceased mentor Pat Lang came in. Pat was the one who hand carried all that intelligence. But our ability back then was we could penetrate the Gulf. Now we can't. So the Navy's limited.
Uh, the army, you know,
how are you going to put a ground force in there? They talk about, oh, US is going to got 50,000 troops.
We invaded Iraq in 2003,
a country that is 1/4th the size of Iran.
Let's understand 1/4. And we had 165,000 troops. We were able to gather them,
place them along the border of of Iraq and both Kuwait and Saudi Arabia.
You can't do that today because Iran has this thing called ballistic missiles,
cruise missiles, and drones which can just devastate devastate any concentration of troops. So the the
point is we're now faced with the limits of US military power that all we can do is drop bombs and
that frankly that that that's not as devastating as we lead ourselves to believe. So instead, Trump is they're
jenning up all these photo ops. Both it's more important to sell it to the American public. Y'all see we're we're really being effective
when when in fact the I'm getting some memes being sent to me by active duty military.
just hilarious. But they're not they're not complimentary. Um, in fact, let me
just the the latest one is two Iraqi soldiers with this that's drawn, but one of
them's got his hand on Donald Trump's shoulder and go saying, "We aren't reopening bro."
Right.
I saw that one. I saw that one. That's a great one. Um, yeah. Well, , where to even continue?
Well, I I wanted your thoughts on this because it's been bothering me a lot. You know, there's been a lot made of the George W. Bush, the next aircraft
carrier. What is it? Is that the last one? I I don't know. But it's another aircraft carrier is heading to the region.
And a lot of the reports have been saying, Larry, that this will mean that now the George W. Bush, Abraham Lincoln,
and the Gerald Ford will all be in the region and active. But last time I checked, the Gerald Ford wasn't active
right now because of its the major repairs it needs. So what what kind of difference does sending the George W. Bush now over to
the region what difference does it make, if anything at all?
Little I mean it's it's it's more symbolic for us. If nothing else, it puts one more grossly over grossly expensive asset at
risk. Again, the it'd be one thing if these aircraft carriers could get in close to, you know, get within a 100
miles of the Iraqi coast, excuse me, the Iranian coast, then, you know, their aircraft they can launch because the
aircraft have a combat radius of about 500, maybe 600 miles. So, , you know, if they fly out a 100,
that means they can fly in inland of another 200 and then they got to turn around and head back in order to get to the ship or to get refueled. But again,
if you you bring air refuelers there within a 100 miles of the coast, they also are vulnerable to being shot down. And then in just the first, you know,
until we so we went to ceasefire two weeks ago. So basically after five weeks of war, we lost like 48 aircraft, a
significant amount. The just the the one the the ones that were lost um on the
recovery of that systems weapons officer from the F-15 that got shot down south of Ishvan.
That was the total cost of all that aircraft was like $480 million. So, you know what we're talking about?
We're talking maybe we've had $3 billion worth of air aircraft losses. That's significant.
Yeah. Yeah. For sure.
And Larry, maybe we can get into some of the global shifts, and consequences, of what we've been talking about. According to recent reports, an estimated 10.7 million barrels of Iranian oil have passed through the strait of Hormuz from the 13th to the 21st. So I want your assessment of the consequences of Iran's lack of capitulation toward this blockade, and how effective this blockade actually is, and what kind of effect this is having on the world situation, and of course the geopolitical shifts that fall within it?
Yeah, it goes back to the original blockade put in place by Iran. Let's use the tsunami as an example for the disruption. You know, the Hollywood version of a tsunami is somebody sitting there on the beach, and all of a sudden you got this rush of water coming at you. But the reality of it, as we saw in Thailand, is it starts with all of the water withdrawing into the sea, and it appears calm. There's no commotion, nothing that would alarm you. Then, all of a sudden, it starts rushing back in. And as it's rushing, all of a sudden it becomes so quick you don't have time to react.
That is I think the proper model for looking at what's happened by blocking the strait of hormuz, and disrupting the supply of oil, liquid natural gas, urea for fertilizer, helium, sulfuric acid, etc., that the result of all this to the supply chain, which was already in motion on the sea, still moving out there, with people receiving these things in ports, on in the case of the oil, unless they had a firm contract to deliver at a certain price, I guess they had to pay like, I know Singapore, where I had to pay like $221 a barrel at one point.
But anyway, once all that starts offloading, there's no full ships behind that in route coming. So then you've got a problem, and that's where shortages start, and
rationing starts. And then it has a cascading effect all down the supply line. And we saw that air travel has already been affected. They're having to ration flights. Lufthansa is talking about cancelling 20,000 flights by October. And with the dramatic cost of airfare going up, people that used to take vacation, are not going to take vacations now. So fewer vacations means the hotel industry, restaurant industry, car rentals are affected. And these effects are superficial compared to people who are not going to be able to harvest enough food. So you're going to have a direct impact on the food supply. And you just can't magically produce food. So there will be starvation, and there will be rioting, and there will be political unrest around the globe. So we haven't even begun to see the full effects of this.
And in your opinion, Larry, a lot of this may already be unavoidable. It seems given that what happened
cannot be taken back. What has happened over the last what happened?
Yeah. I mean you can't just like say let's say that they they get a peace agreement tomorrow and you know say okay
never mind we didn't mean it. We're sorry that you know let's let's all let's all be friends.
It's not all going to get turned back on. the damage the damage to some of the infrastructure in the in the
Persian the the Arab Gulf Arab countries is they're talking months if not years
to repair particularly with with respect to the liquid natural gas and aluminum aluminum production was another one that was severely hurt.
Then we've got the weather effects that are going to come into play. I don't know how many of the people that listen to you, or watch you, have ever had the pleasure of visiting Qatar, or Bahrain, or Saudi Arabia, or United Arab Emirates. But as long as you're in one of those fancy buildings in Dubai, it looks great. But the weather is already starting to turn, and by mid-day, it is like you'd rather go sit inside a pizza oven that's on full blast. I mean, it is blistering hot.
So if this conflict restarts, and the power grids are taken out in those Gulf Arab states, you're going to see a massive population evacuation. They literally can't survive in that kind of heat without air conditioning and potable water.
Iran's not in that situation. Iran has snow covered mountains that Professor Marandi
was commenting on the other day. And you remember we were talking about how the massive water shortage that Iran was facing previously, that they were going to have to evacuate Iran. That's over. Actually, it looks like the US may have been trying to manipulate the weather using cloud seeding, and other things, to try to create arid conditions in Iran. But guess what? You've got lots of rain, lots of water in Tehran right now.
And you know in the last or so maybe a shy under 10 minutes that we have here Larry, maybe we can
talk about who's made out. Do we have the mate who's made out as a winner of all this so far? Because we have many mainstream media reports talk about
China being a big winner of everything that's gone on here. The New York Times even had a a a number by the Iran war by the numbers doesn't look good for the
United States. Uh there's been recent reports of the US's own massive depletion of its air defense
interceptors, the THADs, the Patriots having been depleted 50 plus% just in 8
weeks or so. Um which kind of makes sense. What I was thinking I was like,
okay, well 20% of just Israel's were depleted. And then if you expand that to include the United States, the whole region, you know, the Gulf, and Israel itself, then yeah, 50 plus%
sounds about right.
So who's made out as a winner here? Has Russia and China made out as a winner through out of all this? Or is it more complicated than this?
Well, let's start with the Donald Trump metrics. We've destroyed all their air force; we've destroyed all their navy; we've killed all their top leadership; therefore, we win. Except for all the damage that the United States has inflicted on Iran. And has all that damage caused the Iranians to change their policy? Has it caused them to surrender? Has it caused them to acquiesce to Western demands? No. Has the United States attracted more support in the world from other countries? No. In fact, particularly Spain and Italy are telling the United States to basically screw off. You're not going to use our territory to launch any attacks on Iran. And that is creating, as they said in Star Wars, a disturbance in the force ["I felt a great disturbance in the Force, as if millions of voices suddenly cried out in terror and were suddenly silenced."].
Look at it from Iran's standpoint. They've suffered some significant losses, and you know you can never replace people. I mean, new people can step into positions of leadership, but there's no going back from that loss. They suffered those losses. They've suffered physical damage to key infrastructure. But they have also inflicted massive damage on the United States military which is something that nobody thought possible, including the US military, who assumed that their THAAD and Patriot systems would be sufficient to thwart any Iranian attack. That failed. And then on top of that, Iran has depleted Israel's air defense system. Israel does not have an intact air defense system now, even after a two week pause in fighting. They may have managed to scrape together a couple more Patriot missiles, or THAAD missiles, but nothing in any quantity that could withstand a missile attack of say 200 missiles. Then they'd be completely overwhelmed.
China's position, and Russia's position, both are are now strengthened relative to that of the United States. Previously, people would take all their money and pour it into the United States, because they didn't know what was going to happen in China. And they were nervous. Now, they're putting their money in China, and China is selling bonds through the Deutsch Bank in Germany called Panda Bonds. So they're benefiting financially from this. The West exaggerates China's dependence on oil. Yes, it imports a lot of oil from the Persian Gulf, or did, because it's really the largest economy in the world, but the last number I saw, in terms of its total energy needs, oil only accounts for 15%. I'm not saying that's insignificant, but it's not in the realm of, "Boy, if that's cut off, we're going to die" territory.
Similarly, Russia, who was before a sanctioned regime, and selling oil at a discount to India at $47 a barrel, now everybody needs what it has, and it's selling it at $97 a barrel. The same with liquid natural gas. And it's also the world's largest supplier of fertilizer. So people have to come to Russia on that front. So yeah, in terms of did this strengthen the west, or strengthen the new global south, the new BRICS, yes, it strengthened BRICS in the global south.
Yeah. Well, my final question, Larry, as we head out of here then is, do you foresee the United State restarting the hostilities, the strikes on Iran again, given that after almost five plus weeks of war in Iran, the landscape looks so much different now. Do you see a possibility that the United States tries to re-engage in the way that it had prior to the ceasefire?
I think that despite what Trump's saying in public, there are some desperate moves by the United States behind the scenes to try to re-engage the Pakistanis, and somehow get the Iranians back to the table. And the Iranians have made clear their demands. They've told us what they want. Lift the damn blockade; lift the sanctions; unfreeze the assets, for starters. And I know it's something that the US could do that would not damage US national security interests. But because of Donald Trump's ego, coupled with his own mental deterioration, I don't think he would do that. They should do that. I don't think they would. But if they do that, yes, then we're going to be on the road to getting a negotiated settlement. But still the economic damage has been done, the full impact of which will be going through this year into next. But if they don't do that, and the war gets renewed, then the potential for global economic depression is real. And that's what I think we'll be facing.
Yeah. Yeah. And recently maybe to close on your comments on this
recently I was asked why were there was there anyone in the beginning of before
the war started before the strikes was there anyone who was not wanting this within the military brass within the
Pentagon. Uh and then the question, you know, became, well, wouldn't the these
if there are if there were anyone that opposed this, wouldn't they try their best to stop it from happening again,
from restarting? Well, so your your assessment on that?
I mean, we we know that Trump was warned not to do it by or discouraged from do doing it by JD Vance. even John
Ratcliffe supposedly weighed in on that front, Marco Rubio. But Trump did it anyway. So now it's just a matter of a
question of can can Donald Trump um turn around and admit he was wrong? I
doubt that. Um, again, he's we're dealing with someone he's not only is a pathological narcissist,
but now he's an impaired pathological narcissist. Um, it, you know, it would be helpful if the people around him
could actually rest the control, you know, make the decisions.
But I I, you know, to be realistic, I don't think that'll happen. I hope I'm wrong. I'm hope I'm wrong that you
know pragmatism will finally prevail but that hasn't always been a popular
u thing in um in Washington DC. People people don't get rewarded for being pragmatic.
Yeah. And and quickly just some super chats here as we head out. Uh, someone wanted asked me, Chili Pepper wanted me
to ask ask Larry what neighbor naval sailors are saying. Do you have any insight on that, Larry?
Uh, I don't. Uh, my my sources are in other services.
Trump can't do anything unless he's freed from Zionist control. Thanks,
American AIS court. And then Ibraim Alcansa, hi Danny and Larry. How likely is war restarting? And you just answered
that question Larry has said and I think we all everyone who's watching this may not agree but I think there's a high um
expectation that the way the US is behaving is leading towards some kind of resumption of hostilities in the near
future. Um Larry, any final comments before we say goodbye to the audience?
No, I just will. This is a roller coaster ride and just everybody put your seat belts on. It's going to be a wild ride.
Yeah. Everybody hit the like button before you go. Uh that helps boost the stream and YouTube's algorithm. Thanks for all the super chats. Thanks to all those who watch today, all the
moderators who are in the chat too helping. In the video description, I'm going to be putting Larry Johnson's Sonar 21 blog. So, be sure to follow that. You can do that after the show.
Hit the like button again. All right,
everybody. I'll see you again soon. I think 7:30 a.m. Eastern. 7 a.m. Eastern time because it's 700 p.m. here with
Victor Gao earlier tomorrow. But be sure to have your breakfast with it if you're morning Eastern time or
maybe if you're later you can have your lunch, etc. But all right, say goodbye everybody. See you soon. Thanks Danny.
Later. Later.
