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Patrick Henningsen: Iran Strikes US Bases in Jordan – Retaliation Begins & Talks DEAD
by Nima Alkhorshid
Dialogue Works
Jun 10, 2026
Transcript
Hi everybody. Today is Wednesday, June 10th, 2026 and our dear friend, our brother Patrick Henningson is here with us. Welcome back, Patrick.
Pleasure to be with you, Nema. Thank you very much.
Patrick, we had a confrontation between Iran and Israel after Israel attacking DHI in southern part of Lebanon. Iran
attacked Israel. Then the is Iran the Iranian attack was basically focused on the northern part of Israel. Then the
Israeli attack on Iran and from what I've learned from Israeli attack on Iran, it wasn't it wasn't a
big deal. They didn't hit the targets or those targets were not that significant for in the eyes of Iranians.
And then Iranian response to what Israel did it was they were hitting bases
Israelis from you know what the Israelis were telling us that they intercepted everything no damage nothing has
happened then the footages came out it showed that you know Raat David air base
was hit today Israel accepted that after releasing those footages coming out and say we are investigating
you know, the whole case of this missiles hitting the air base, but they said no casualties, no damage so far, but this the investigation is going on.
Then suddenly yesterday, Donald Trump came out and said that there was an a a
an Apache helicopter in the Persian Gulf patrolling the straight of Hormuz. It was shot. It was hit by something.
Iranian hit the helicopter. Then two pilots are alive. They're safe,
uninjured. Nothing has happened to the pilots. Which was so amazing to hear that.
And he said he's going to respond later on. He said no, that wasn't a big deal.
We may not respond. And then CBS News in his interview with CBS later after the
comment that it wasn't a big deal, he said that we may respond to that. So our understanding was that he's going to respond. It's going to be a limited
response on the part of the United States. They attacked last night. They attacked Sirk Island, Kesh Island, and
the port of Jos. They hit the targets. A telecommunication
tower was hit in Surirk. Two water tanks were hit. Then we had Iranian response
to what is what the United States did and the attack was on Bahrain, Kuwait and Jordan.
So Iranians said that they hit 21 targets
or they targeted 21 you know important you know locations in the with the case
of the American air bases or the sensitive areas in Kuwait and Bahin and Jordan.
That's all that's the whole case of what has happened so far today. Donald Trump said that he's gonna basically what he's
talking about he says Iran's military is a complete and total mess much of it
like their navy and air air force doesn't even exist anymore they have been completely defeated Iran is all
talk and no action the bully of the Middle East is dead they have taken too long to negotiate a
deal that would have been great for them. Now they will have to pay the
4 minutesprice. It means that my understanding is that there is no point of negotiating with the United States anymore. So what
is your understanding? What has happened and what what do you make of what Donald Trump is talking about?
The thing is Nema uh that's what he's saying today or this morning Washington time. It might be something completely
different by the time he goes to bed tonight and then something different alto together uh tomorrow morning. So, I can't really put any currency. They're
going to have to pay the ultimate price and you could see him in an interview later tomorrow or something saying, "Well, I think we can uh meet with the
Supreme Leader. He seems like a nice guy. Seems like a good strong young man.
You know, good. He'll give all of this back and forth." and his Donald Trump's uh advocates say, "This is what we love
about this president. He's so unpredictable. He's not like those other presidents, those other weak leaders like Biden uh who was so predictable.
Trump is unpredictable and that's what makes his enemies afraid of him because they don't know what he's going to do next." Well, I got a news flash for you.
Donald Trump doesn't know what he's going to do next either. So that's that's the part that's not in Sunzu's
art of war, which is uh you're if you don't know what you're doing, your enemy doesn't either. And that's the problem
here. And this is there is no strategy from the US right now. They back themselves so deeply into these
positions. A lot of them are based on false assumptions, premises, propaganda, and just outright lies. and they spend a
lot of time managing the information space as you know there's also the profitering on the back of the uh the
the oil and the stock markets that's been going continuously with this administration. So, uh, first of all, I'm going to have to say I I'm not
convinced. I see conflicting reports on whether Iran actually shot down, uh, the
the this Blackhawk helicopter. Uh, the the US or CNN reported that it was a a Shahi drone that hit. I know Shahi
drones don't travel that fast. So, how it hit a Blackhawk helicopter, I I'm not sure. Um some Iranian sources have said
that um they believe the helicopter crashed and wasn't necessarily hit. Now that does happen a lot and with the
amount of aerosortis and missions you're flying the the odds are that they're going to be uh malfunctions and and
there's going to crash. Not to mention uh in terms of maintenance and staging and things like that uh any Blackhawk
helicopter in Straight of Hormuz is out of area quite frankly and they're they're already stretching. So there's questions around what this is. One thing
I can say, if I believe that it crashed rather than was shot down, that means it's a false flag by definition. Because
if it crashed and then they're using it to claim it was shot down and then using that as a pretext for escalation, that
by definition is a false flag. The United States using their own military assets and and crashing or whatever. Um
it should in in no way is it proportional response by the US. They they claim that the pilots were rescued.
Now were the pilots rescued or not? We don't know. Are they ever going to be named? Probably not. Like like like the
uh uh Isvahan failed raid to to grab the nuclear dust. Uh where's Private Ryan?
Private Ryan doesn't have a name still.
He should be a should be a hero. It should be a Hollywood uh blockbuster film about his daring rescue, you know, the daring rescue of this this airman in
in Iran. So what what can we believe from the US? Nothing. Nothing. It doesn't make any sense at all. Uh and
8 minuteseven if it even if it was true, uh the straight of Hormuse is not an area to patrol. It's not it's it's not
international waters. that is Omani and Iranian territory. Full stop. The US has no business and no right to be uh you
know flying Blackhawk helicopters around uh enforcing a naval blockade there. And they're already using US aircraft uh to
fire at empty tankers, ships they claim are sanctioned. Um this is just outright piracy and just kind of uh international
racketeering. That's the best way to describe what they're doing.
So they're they're they're caught in this situation that they absolutely can't back out of and it's there's only going
to be more and more triggers for escalation. So you could just have this longunning relatively low intensity
conflict um to save face to be involved not to get things too escalating with Iran but just enough to justify a US
presence and give time for the rearmament of Israel and the US of what what positions they do have left in the
region. So that's one way of looking at it. The other way is um if if there is a
massive escalation which like if you took Trump's word of what the threat he issued just recently that Iran's going
to pay the price. Well, how long can the US sustain a major barrage at Iran?
Two weeks max. Two weeks max. And what's what's the retaliation going to be from Iran? It's going to be massive. It's
going to be massive. And I if for instance, I'll give you an example, Nema, reports suggest that Israeli F-35s
uh received air-to-air refueling support over Saudi Arabian airspace.
If that's true, and it looks to me like it is, um then, you know, Saudi bases then become fair game. But guess what
else becomes fair game? uh Saudi allowed Israel to use and the US to use its airspace to fly and then through Iraq
and then to to attack Iran. That means Bengurian airport, Bengurian airport, which is used to house all of the US uh
uh air-to-air refueling tankers, 60 plus aircraft of that that type, I'm led to believe based on the photographs and
what people reported. Then Bengarian Airport becomes at the top of the target bank list. Now,
what's that's I I just can't see why you how you could get out of this conundrum
if you're the US or Israel because Israelis who are desperate to flee during time of war, if that airport
is wiped out or rendered inoperable, uh it's already de facto. Hundreds of flights have been cancelled because
there's no room on the tarmac for for passenger any more passenger airlines because they're full of US military aircraft.
Imagine if Bengurian airport comes under stri Iranian missile strikes a sustained
uh Yemen and Iranian missile strikes and Hezbollah drone attacks. Then what what what are the people of Israel going to
do? They're going to beg the world to send boats to Hifa and they're going to like evacuate them to Cyprus and Albania
so they could stay on maybe put some put build some settlements on Kushner's Island. Um but that's not going to
happen. So I I just don't think I I can't see this as sustainable. None of
this is sustainable. Um so yeah, it's it's hard. It's hard. I know you want people want to hear an answer of, you
know, what do you think Trump's going to do, but he just flip-flops constantly, so it's impossible to say what his position is at any given moment. I'm
just looking at the the math on what each side has in position, what munitions and military assets it can
expend, and Iran has the advantage in the balance of force in the region. by nature their missile and drone fleets
and by nature the fact that they effectively control the straight of for moose and the US blockade is just a nuisance and it's not impervious either
as a blockade uh ships are getting through it can continue to you know fire at commercial ships using the US
military to to destroy unarmed ships it's for the US that's kind of embarrassing but that is that the best
use of the world's most powerful military in the history of Earth, which the US is constantly touting every 5
minutes, and all you can do is blow up uh empty boats cuz that seems like the majority of the activity of the US
military. That's kind of ridiculous embarrassment at the moment, but and again, that's not sustainable either.
So, they can they can only run this blockade, this this sort of sham of a blockade for not much longer, actually.
not much longer. And it's it's not really effective either. There's all sorts of workarounds that have already been uh charted around it either via sea
or overland or along the Iranian southern coast. So, it's it's not really it's it's it's something as a political
showpiece for Trump back at home. Uh but besides that, very little in terms of utility.
My understanding, Patrick, is that the response of the the attack of the United States is was a response to what Iran
did against Israel. The latest round round of attack Iranian attack on Israel because Israel has shown no capabilities
with their offensive with their offensive attack on Iran. You know, the country doesn't have the capabilities when it comes to the offensive when it
comes to their defensive air defense system. So for those people who are arguing that Israel without the United
States is going to be able to do anything in in the West Asia, I think that's delusional. That's totally delusional. And that's why they're not
going to let the United States to leave the region for what that's the ultimate goal. There is no way for the United States to get out of the region. I I
don't see that happening with the Trump administration and these people, these ultra Zionists in the United States.
They're going to stay there in Jordan, maybe in in Israel, in Diego Garcia, in Greece, and they're going to manage something there to stay there.
Well, they won't leave. They won't leave voluntarily, but they could leave by force and that's that's definitely a distinct possibility.
What form that takes and along what timeline, that's another question altogether. But if you look at I mean
the fact that they're using Bengurian airport a civilian airport as their main air staging ground in West Asia that is
just a level of desperation that's hard to comprehend quite frankly but that's kind of what they're left with and the
reason they're left with that is because Iran has done something that maybe a lot of people didn't expect which is that
they treated all the GCC countries as co-elligerent when this confict this round of uh shooting began and by doing
that they basically rendered the US geostrategic military footprint in the
region uh pretty pretty much useless. Um so it and they managed to put pressure on all of the US allies for
participating in this and then the de the economic damage and deprivation that's come as a result to Qatar, the
UAE, uh Kuwait, Bahrain, uh and Saudi Arabia is significant and it has worked.
It has worked. hasn't completely deterred um the US, certainly not Israel, but it's it's severely hamper hampered the United States to the point
where they have very limited options when striking Iran. Very limited options. Now, uh they've played out all
these hands. Iran has been hammering uh uh uh covert facilities in Iraqi Kurdistan in the KRG. Hammering them.
That's huge. That's huge because that's that's been the real ace card that the US and Israel have held since the
beginning of of this fighting. And so that and dismantling a lot of the uh US and intelligence
and spy networks and collaborators and agent provocators uh within Iran. So
definitely the tide uh has turned. U Iran has the upper hand. There's there's no doubt about that. Uh ge
geopolitically, militarily, and also economically, there's very little the US can do in terms of sanctioning to hurt
or or damage Iran that hasn't already been done already. And all they're doing anyway is forcing uh pe more people out
of the dollar in in Asia as a whole and globally as well. Um and also just
really fasttracking China's Belt and Road network and uh other sort of overland solutions. I mean they can they
can arm the Beluchcci terrorist separatist groups and you know uh get them to carry out terrorist attacks in
the Pakistani port of uh Guadar and do all of these things to disrupt and to
sabotage uh China's belt and road economic network which is land sea uh
and you know rail road land and sea combined network economic network of trade and distribution and supplies and
things like that. You can keep doing that, but there's only so much you can uh you can only go so far with this uh
the US strategy. All they have left is sabotage is disruption and sabotage. That's all they have left. They are absolutely
accelerating it. And the more other countries get cut off from that network, i.e. US allies or Arabs under
normalization policies. Um it's it's going to restrict their economic opportunities as well. So it's not going to be good for them uh economically much
in the same way that Europe has kind of strangled itself off uh by sanctioning Russia and it's kind of destroyed it
suicided its own uh economy uh by doing that. So that's the these things are not going in the favor of of the United
States. What the US is has tried to do, which Iran is also broken. The US has tried so hard as Israel has to
compartmentalize this conflict in Gaza into Lebanon and with with Iran and
saying that, "Oh, well, this is uh this is between the US and Iran." No, it's not. It's the US, Israel, and Iran. And
the US is always trying to portray itself as a neutral broker on this. They started the war. They're backing Israel.
They're arming Israel. They're providing every sub level of support to them militarily and then pretending that they're, you know, it playing referee in
the middle. And nobody believes it anymore. But they they have to do that because Israel relies on that compartmentalization.
While the US is fighting Iran, they're going and, you know, destroying and massacring people in South Lebanon and
massacring Palestinians in Gaza. and they need the world to to see these as separate conflicts. This is a really
important part of the Israeli deception of how they deceive the world in their sort of disingenuous framing. And what
Iran is saying is no, the source of all hostility, all death, all destruction in
the region is Israel. It's the Zionist entity.
And we have proof because as soon as Iran fired missiles this the last few days at Israel, what did Israel go do?
The first thing they did was shut off aid to the people in Gaza. First thing they did. So there Israel saying, "We're going to punish the Palestinians for
what the Iranians have done and by daring by having the nerve to fire missiles at us. We're going to punish those Palestinians and we're going to
use the Palestinians as leverage against the Iranians. That's exactly what Israel is doing. And then so there's there's
evidence there. So Iran h doesn't have to make a case. Israel has demonstrated
that it's using the people of Lebanon and the people of Gaza as leverage
as leverage against Iran. And so by extension, the US by allowing the compartmentalization is also allowing
Israel to do that. So Iran's put their drawn the red line said you you you bomb Beirut, we're going to you know there's
no there's no there are there's no ceasefire. We're going to hit uh targets in Israel and hit them hard and we're going to hit US bases. And they did. So
Iran's drawing the red lines now. And the US and Israel have to react or not react, whatever the case may be. But so
now Iran is setting the pace. That's what changed this week. Iran is now leading the pace of action reaction.
That's a big difference from where it was before. They achieve this by uh being patient during this lull in
hostilities and then coming out with a very clear strategic doctrine and policy and
drawing red lines and only and I will argue this Nema in international relations it's my belief through the
literature and through my studies and through what many other great scholars have have intimated which is that in the
international system. The system bends in favor of normative powers over time.
Rogue states, it the system does not bend in favor of rogue states can create problems temporarily, but in the long
run, they're going to be overtaken by other normative powers who are bandwagoning together and stability will
be achieved through those normative forces.
Um, Iran is is acting like a normative power. more and more and more. Only a normative power can draw a moral red
line. Weaker states can't do that. They they they can they can't enforce it either. Iran has drawn it and is
enforcing it. That is you could argue that's what superpowers are able to do.
But at the very least a mid-tier regional power and a normative actor in the international system. So other
normative actors, China, uh Russia, uh European countries,
European countries have to recognize this course of actions and reactions because they themselves abide by the
same rules in the international system or they have to the US doesn't have to abide by international law norms or
anything like that. it can take take it and leave it as it suits it because it's it's established itself as a as a global hedgeimon. And Israel's allied and
tethered to the US. So it also does not have to abide by any human rights conventions, any international law, any norms whatsoever. And they don't. And
they've proven they don't. But the the the that's the uh the irony of the international system is while the top
power doesn't need to uh play by the rules, the rest of the system must come together and have to even if they
don't believe in the international law, don't believe the US will ever abide by it or their ally Israel or Britain for instance, um when they're allied with
the US doing these very same activities, um the rest of the world must because if they don't there'll be total chaos in the international system and more
countries will lose uh as a result of that should uh hostilities uh carine out
of control. Um so so Iran's now stepped into that position and let me tell you
many people could not have predicted that 3 months ago and it's happening. It's it's incredible how it's happened and it's been very
ubtle, but as long as they stick and what I'll say, Nemo, last thing on this, if Iran sticks to its principles and
does not budge and includes Lebanon in any ceasefire packages and does not budge, do not give any ground
whatsoever, the longer they maintain this position, the other normative powers in the international system will see that
that's more bankable. it's more predictable. You can invest in that, right? They're they're eventually going to blame Israel as the source of the
instability and and probably by the United States as well ultimately um which many already
are. But it will become very clear. So then that opens the door for other countries to then take action either through sanctioning uh diplomatic
pressure and all Iran has to do is maintain its position, its policy. don't budge, maintain their red line, enforce
the red line, and all of a sudden all the things is if if Iran is immovable on these conditions, then other countries
will have to conform to that. And you look at what's happening already. Look at the fighting between Israel and the US politically. There are some, you
know, serious ma shouting matches and insults going back and forth in the US, the Zionist camp against Trump, uh, the
US against Israel, Israel against the US. That's all because of Iran.
That's because Iran drew this red line. That is the cause of that infighting. So Iran's already
created political friction between its two enemies who are supposed to be the best of allies and that's as a result of what
they have done. They could have not done it that way. They could have kept it compartmentalized. Say we don't want to worry about Lebanon. It's going to
complicate our our situation here. Let's just focus on Iran and the US or whatever our security and don't worry
about Israel and don't speak about Palestine. That's what most countries would do.
But a superpower or a regional power can do more than that. And Iran is doing just that. And look at the results. They
can sit back and watch watch their enemies start sniping at each other, arguing with each other of what to do,
what not to do. Look at Lebanon. I mean, Nema, did you see the interview with Christian Amen and Joseph Ayun, the Lebanese president just a few days ago?
Did you see how strident and how uh Aun was just slagging off the Iranians and Hezbollah, wagging his finger and
saying, "You can't interfere in our affairs and whatnot." But guess what? What's he been saying in
the last ? Oh, Israel cannot have total security and warfare is not a solution. Before he was saying, "We want
good relations with Israel. Please, Israelis, please. you know, bomb us all you want, but you know, we we're not
going to do anything against you. You know, we're going to be good a good little uh neighbor, but the problem is Hezbollah and those Iranians blaming
everything Israel is doing on Hezbollah and Iran. He's now flipped. The reason he's flipped because the pressure the pressure is accumulating on on him as a
puppet, as a proxy of Washington, of Riad and Tel Aviv.
He's feeling the pressure because of this. And that's because of what Iran has done. Not not necessarily because of
Hezbollah's resistance and steadfastness. That's been a constant, but because Iran stepped up as a
regional power and has dropped the line and dro and and enforced it. That is look look. It's just amazing. I'm
watching all the shifts in position after this week. To me, it's incredible.
Yeah. I think when he says Donald Trump says all talk, no action, it reminds me what he was talking about during the presidential election against Joe Biden.
He's really feeling that he's running the show is, you know, the enemy somehow is the rival. But this is not the rival.
This is totally different. They have done each and everything that they told us before this war started. They said we're going to close the straight off
for Moses. They did. They said they're going to hit each and every base in the region, American bases in the region.
They did that. You know, what you just mentioned I think is so important. This is the first time to to understand how
significant is this shift in the Iranian strategy in the region. This is the first time Iran attacking Israel without being attacked by Israeli government.
Exactly.
That's the whole point of what has happened so far. And nobody seems to believe that in Israel. There's so much shock with the reality of what's going on.
Who who who acts first sets the pace of actions and reactions.
And the US always acts first. They always do preemptive strikes and they knew that strategically they're able to
then control and to ma mod modulate the escalation um uh ladder as it were and and and what their opponents might or might not do.
and Iran waited waited waited and waited and and while
they're waiting the political situation's deteriorating in America for Trump and in Israel for Netanyahu
and um it it's also created this whole situation this week has created loads of new problems politically inside Israel
with uh with the Netanyahu regime. Okay, it might not be significant. And it's not going to change the you know
ambitions of the Zionist state but it's it's going to basically I think create a lot of indecision and delays
uh and and a lot of people will then question even in the military will begin to question u whether this is
sustainable or not whether we can fight uh a fivef frontont war whether that's sustainable or not um they have all
sorts of structural problems in Israel as a result of Same with the United States. Military militarily the US has huge structural problems in the region
now. They can't they can't maintain total deterrence. They can't defend Israel anymore. They can't. It's not
happening. So that this is just going to transform. So if it's a war of attrition, you have to favor the Iranians in a war of attrition. And this
is ultimately going to be a war of attrition. It is a war of attrition.
it's going to f and it'll probably uh by the same token if Hezbollah sticks to their guns and doesn't waver from their
position and doesn't uh do anything. I think I think it would be a huge mistake to go into any disarmament talks with
the Lebanese government because we all see what happens as soon as you disarm you get wiped out. Uh and the Israelis would go completely all out if there
wasn't if they didn't have any resistance in South Lebanon. they would very quickly annex uh 1/5if of Lebanese territory without a
doubt and that would be the end of that and then they put a buffer zone over the Latani River as well. So I mean that's just certain that's going to happen and
that's what a lot of people in Israel are calling for now. They they view that like they view the golden heights like they view Mount Herman. They view South
Lebanon as theirs, theirs in terms of uh uh their their sec zone of security
interest, but also theirs in terms of biblical, you know, birthright. They they believe that that's part of the
kingdom of Israel promised to them 3,000 years ago, and they're going to take it.
And this is a golden opportunity. the the hard right, the ethnationalist uh quasi Nazi right in uh in Israel, they
they see this as their golden opportunity to realize uh the the first steps in a greater Israel project
and they feel that if they don't take advantage of this now that they won't get this opportunity again because they're never going to have a pro-Israeli uh administration in
Washington. This is it. Donald Trump is the last harrah for the Zionist state in America. I'm telling you right now, it's
it after what they've done. So, they didn't get they didn't win the the lottery uh in 3 weeks like they claimed
or thought they would uh with regards to breaking Iran and gaining regime change into Iran. And now they're stuck with
this uh incredible situation and there's no way out. the only way out is to cut your losses. And the US classic late stage empire, uh they they just can't.
The collective ego of the empire, they can't transition out of this position they've gotten themselves into. They
can't do it gracefully. I would even argue that they can't do it as gracefully as in the
British if by comparison the way it's going for the US the the British did did it much more gracefully than the US have
done but the the Britain had actual material commonwealth that comprised of you know 25% of the world's you know inhabitable
land or something like that. So, I mean, but the US doesn't have the Commonwealth
officially, but they their empire is global and it's and it's total in terms of military and economic enforcement.
And I I just it's it's going to be very hard for them to to to to admit defeat
um especially w with with Israel, how tightly wound they are with with Israel politically in the US and internationally. So, it's just going to mean they're going to have to bleed out.
The US is going to bleed out economically in the very same way that I believe that Europe is bleeding out economically by sticking to their old
colonial uh machinations and visions of grandeur of old Europe that they're destroying their own economy and viability of
future industries and so forth in order to stick it to the Russians uh over Ukraine. So to the point where
life will be unaffordable in Europe because of uh ridiculous energy prices and uh the fact that all the governments are uh putting all their money and
piling up debt to rearm Europe uh against a Russian menace that wouldn't be there quite frankly if the United
States didn't create the Russian menace by uh by fermenting a civil war uh in Ukraine. So it's the same problem in the
Middle East. the the US is going to have to bleed out and so is the so are the other the Gulf monarchies quite frankly
and what's left at the end what will happen to Israel who knows uh what what shape that situation's going to take but
u I guess the thing that we're all concerned about Nema is that what could happen on the way down how much damage could happen on the way down is Israel
also kicks and screams all the way to the exit of history um in terms of the viability of their political, you know,
ethnationalist uh Jewish nationalist project in Israel, the Zionist project.
How much damage can they do to the region and to themselves and to their neighbors uh as they're kicking and screaming all the way to the to the exit door of history? Who knows?
I think what you've just mentioned about Ukraine is the key issue in Lebanon as well, the civil war, and they're trying
to do that by using the Lebanese government because if you're not if you're not capable to defeat Hezbollah
in the southern part of Lebanon, then you have to bomb Beirut. If Iran comes in and he says that if you attack Beirut, we're going to attack you. Then
the third option would be you know using the government in Lebanon to make some sort of civil war because the whole
concept Patrick is to you know to put pressure on Hezbollah to be more focused
on domestic issues than fighting Israelis. Yes.
