PART 3 ANTI-ANTI-NAZI BARBARIAN HORDES ARE KNOCKING DOWN THE

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Patrick Henningsen: Iran Strikes US Bases in Jordan – Retaliation Begins & Talks DEAD
by Nima Alkhorshid
Dialogue Works
Jun 10, 2026



Transcript

Hi everybody. Today is Wednesday, June 10th, 2026 and our dear friend, our brother Patrick Henningson is here with us. Welcome back, Patrick.
Pleasure to be with you, Nema. Thank you very much.
Patrick, we had a confrontation between Iran and Israel after Israel attacking DHI in southern part of Lebanon. Iran
attacked Israel. Then the is Iran the Iranian attack was basically focused on the northern part of Israel. Then the
Israeli attack on Iran and from what I've learned from Israeli attack on Iran, it wasn't it wasn't a
big deal. They didn't hit the targets or those targets were not that significant for in the eyes of Iranians.
And then Iranian response to what Israel did it was they were hitting bases
Israelis from you know what the Israelis were telling us that they intercepted everything no damage nothing has
happened then the footages came out it showed that you know Raat David air base
was hit today Israel accepted that after releasing those footages coming out and say we are investigating
you know, the whole case of this missiles hitting the air base, but they said no casualties, no damage so far, but this the investigation is going on.
Then suddenly yesterday, Donald Trump came out and said that there was an a a
an Apache helicopter in the Persian Gulf patrolling the straight of Hormuz. It was shot. It was hit by something.
Iranian hit the helicopter. Then two pilots are alive. They're safe,
uninjured. Nothing has happened to the pilots. Which was so amazing to hear that.
And he said he's going to respond later on. He said no, that wasn't a big deal.
We may not respond. And then CBS News in his interview with CBS later after the
comment that it wasn't a big deal, he said that we may respond to that. So our understanding was that he's going to respond. It's going to be a limited
response on the part of the United States. They attacked last night. They attacked Sirk Island, Kesh Island, and
the port of Jos. They hit the targets. A telecommunication
tower was hit in Surirk. Two water tanks were hit. Then we had Iranian response
to what is what the United States did and the attack was on Bahrain, Kuwait and Jordan.
So Iranians said that they hit 21 targets
or they targeted 21 you know important you know locations in the with the case
of the American air bases or the sensitive areas in Kuwait and Bahin and Jordan.
That's all that's the whole case of what has happened so far today. Donald Trump said that he's gonna basically what he's
talking about he says Iran's military is a complete and total mess much of it
like their navy and air air force doesn't even exist anymore they have been completely defeated Iran is all
talk and no action the bully of the Middle East is dead they have taken too long to negotiate a
deal that would have been great for them. Now they will have to pay the
4 minutesprice. It means that my understanding is that there is no point of negotiating with the United States anymore. So what
is your understanding? What has happened and what what do you make of what Donald Trump is talking about?
The thing is Nema uh that's what he's saying today or this morning Washington time. It might be something completely
different by the time he goes to bed tonight and then something different alto together uh tomorrow morning. So, I can't really put any currency. They're
going to have to pay the ultimate price and you could see him in an interview later tomorrow or something saying, "Well, I think we can uh meet with the
Supreme Leader. He seems like a nice guy. Seems like a good strong young man.
You know, good. He'll give all of this back and forth." and his Donald Trump's uh advocates say, "This is what we love
about this president. He's so unpredictable. He's not like those other presidents, those other weak leaders like Biden uh who was so predictable.
Trump is unpredictable and that's what makes his enemies afraid of him because they don't know what he's going to do next." Well, I got a news flash for you.
Donald Trump doesn't know what he's going to do next either. So that's that's the part that's not in Sunzu's
art of war, which is uh you're if you don't know what you're doing, your enemy doesn't either. And that's the problem
here. And this is there is no strategy from the US right now. They back themselves so deeply into these
positions. A lot of them are based on false assumptions, premises, propaganda, and just outright lies. and they spend a
lot of time managing the information space as you know there's also the profitering on the back of the uh the
the oil and the stock markets that's been going continuously with this administration. So, uh, first of all, I'm going to have to say I I'm not
convinced. I see conflicting reports on whether Iran actually shot down, uh, the
the this Blackhawk helicopter. Uh, the the US or CNN reported that it was a a Shahi drone that hit. I know Shahi
drones don't travel that fast. So, how it hit a Blackhawk helicopter, I I'm not sure. Um some Iranian sources have said
that um they believe the helicopter crashed and wasn't necessarily hit. Now that does happen a lot and with the
amount of aerosortis and missions you're flying the the odds are that they're going to be uh malfunctions and and
there's going to crash. Not to mention uh in terms of maintenance and staging and things like that uh any Blackhawk
helicopter in Straight of Hormuz is out of area quite frankly and they're they're already stretching. So there's questions around what this is. One thing
I can say, if I believe that it crashed rather than was shot down, that means it's a false flag by definition. Because
if it crashed and then they're using it to claim it was shot down and then using that as a pretext for escalation, that
by definition is a false flag. The United States using their own military assets and and crashing or whatever. Um
it should in in no way is it proportional response by the US. They they claim that the pilots were rescued.
Now were the pilots rescued or not? We don't know. Are they ever going to be named? Probably not. Like like like the
uh uh Isvahan failed raid to to grab the nuclear dust. Uh where's Private Ryan?
Private Ryan doesn't have a name still.
He should be a should be a hero. It should be a Hollywood uh blockbuster film about his daring rescue, you know, the daring rescue of this this airman in
in Iran. So what what can we believe from the US? Nothing. Nothing. It doesn't make any sense at all. Uh and
8 minuteseven if it even if it was true, uh the straight of Hormuse is not an area to patrol. It's not it's it's not
international waters. that is Omani and Iranian territory. Full stop. The US has no business and no right to be uh you
know flying Blackhawk helicopters around uh enforcing a naval blockade there. And they're already using US aircraft uh to
fire at empty tankers, ships they claim are sanctioned. Um this is just outright piracy and just kind of uh international
racketeering. That's the best way to describe what they're doing.
So they're they're they're caught in this situation that they absolutely can't back out of and it's there's only going
to be more and more triggers for escalation. So you could just have this longunning relatively low intensity
conflict um to save face to be involved not to get things too escalating with Iran but just enough to justify a US
presence and give time for the rearmament of Israel and the US of what what positions they do have left in the
region. So that's one way of looking at it. The other way is um if if there is a
massive escalation which like if you took Trump's word of what the threat he issued just recently that Iran's going
to pay the price. Well, how long can the US sustain a major barrage at Iran?
Two weeks max. Two weeks max. And what's what's the retaliation going to be from Iran? It's going to be massive. It's
going to be massive. And I if for instance, I'll give you an example, Nema, reports suggest that Israeli F-35s
uh received air-to-air refueling support over Saudi Arabian airspace.
If that's true, and it looks to me like it is, um then, you know, Saudi bases then become fair game. But guess what
else becomes fair game? uh Saudi allowed Israel to use and the US to use its airspace to fly and then through Iraq
and then to to attack Iran. That means Bengurian airport, Bengurian airport, which is used to house all of the US uh
uh air-to-air refueling tankers, 60 plus aircraft of that that type, I'm led to believe based on the photographs and
what people reported. Then Bengarian Airport becomes at the top of the target bank list. Now,
what's that's I I just can't see why you how you could get out of this conundrum
if you're the US or Israel because Israelis who are desperate to flee during time of war, if that airport
is wiped out or rendered inoperable, uh it's already de facto. Hundreds of flights have been cancelled because
there's no room on the tarmac for for passenger any more passenger airlines because they're full of US military aircraft.
Imagine if Bengurian airport comes under stri Iranian missile strikes a sustained
uh Yemen and Iranian missile strikes and Hezbollah drone attacks. Then what what what are the people of Israel going to
do? They're going to beg the world to send boats to Hifa and they're going to like evacuate them to Cyprus and Albania
so they could stay on maybe put some put build some settlements on Kushner's Island. Um but that's not going to
happen. So I I just don't think I I can't see this as sustainable. None of
this is sustainable. Um so yeah, it's it's hard. It's hard. I know you want people want to hear an answer of, you
know, what do you think Trump's going to do, but he just flip-flops constantly, so it's impossible to say what his position is at any given moment. I'm
just looking at the the math on what each side has in position, what munitions and military assets it can
expend, and Iran has the advantage in the balance of force in the region. by nature their missile and drone fleets
and by nature the fact that they effectively control the straight of for moose and the US blockade is just a nuisance and it's not impervious either
as a blockade uh ships are getting through it can continue to you know fire at commercial ships using the US
military to to destroy unarmed ships it's for the US that's kind of embarrassing but that is that the best
use of the world's most powerful military in the history of Earth, which the US is constantly touting every 5
minutes, and all you can do is blow up uh empty boats cuz that seems like the majority of the activity of the US
military. That's kind of ridiculous embarrassment at the moment, but and again, that's not sustainable either.
So, they can they can only run this blockade, this this sort of sham of a blockade for not much longer, actually.
not much longer. And it's it's not really effective either. There's all sorts of workarounds that have already been uh charted around it either via sea
or overland or along the Iranian southern coast. So, it's it's not really it's it's it's something as a political
showpiece for Trump back at home. Uh but besides that, very little in terms of utility.
My understanding, Patrick, is that the response of the the attack of the United States is was a response to what Iran
did against Israel. The latest round round of attack Iranian attack on Israel because Israel has shown no capabilities
with their offensive with their offensive attack on Iran. You know, the country doesn't have the capabilities when it comes to the offensive when it
comes to their defensive air defense system. So for those people who are arguing that Israel without the United
States is going to be able to do anything in in the West Asia, I think that's delusional. That's totally delusional. And that's why they're not
going to let the United States to leave the region for what that's the ultimate goal. There is no way for the United States to get out of the region. I I
don't see that happening with the Trump administration and these people, these ultra Zionists in the United States.
They're going to stay there in Jordan, maybe in in Israel, in Diego Garcia, in Greece, and they're going to manage something there to stay there.
Well, they won't leave. They won't leave voluntarily, but they could leave by force and that's that's definitely a distinct possibility.
What form that takes and along what timeline, that's another question altogether. But if you look at I mean
the fact that they're using Bengurian airport a civilian airport as their main air staging ground in West Asia that is
just a level of desperation that's hard to comprehend quite frankly but that's kind of what they're left with and the
reason they're left with that is because Iran has done something that maybe a lot of people didn't expect which is that
they treated all the GCC countries as co-elligerent when this confict this round of uh shooting began and by doing
that they basically rendered the US geostrategic military footprint in the
region uh pretty pretty much useless. Um so it and they managed to put pressure on all of the US allies for
participating in this and then the de the economic damage and deprivation that's come as a result to Qatar, the
UAE, uh Kuwait, Bahrain, uh and Saudi Arabia is significant and it has worked.
It has worked. hasn't completely deterred um the US, certainly not Israel, but it's it's severely hamper hampered the United States to the point
where they have very limited options when striking Iran. Very limited options. Now, uh they've played out all
these hands. Iran has been hammering uh uh uh covert facilities in Iraqi Kurdistan in the KRG. Hammering them.
That's huge. That's huge because that's that's been the real ace card that the US and Israel have held since the
beginning of of this fighting. And so that and dismantling a lot of the uh US and intelligence
and spy networks and collaborators and agent provocators uh within Iran. So
definitely the tide uh has turned. U Iran has the upper hand. There's there's no doubt about that. Uh ge
geopolitically, militarily, and also economically, there's very little the US can do in terms of sanctioning to hurt
or or damage Iran that hasn't already been done already. And all they're doing anyway is forcing uh pe more people out
of the dollar in in Asia as a whole and globally as well. Um and also just
really fasttracking China's Belt and Road network and uh other sort of overland solutions. I mean they can they
can arm the Beluchcci terrorist separatist groups and you know uh get them to carry out terrorist attacks in
the Pakistani port of uh Guadar and do all of these things to disrupt and to
sabotage uh China's belt and road economic network which is land sea uh
and you know rail road land and sea combined network economic network of trade and distribution and supplies and
things like that. You can keep doing that, but there's only so much you can uh you can only go so far with this uh
the US strategy. All they have left is sabotage is disruption and sabotage. That's all they have left. They are absolutely
accelerating it. And the more other countries get cut off from that network, i.e. US allies or Arabs under
normalization policies. Um it's it's going to restrict their economic opportunities as well. So it's not going to be good for them uh economically much
in the same way that Europe has kind of strangled itself off uh by sanctioning Russia and it's kind of destroyed it
suicided its own uh economy uh by doing that. So that's the these things are not going in the favor of of the United
States. What the US is has tried to do, which Iran is also broken. The US has tried so hard as Israel has to
compartmentalize this conflict in Gaza into Lebanon and with with Iran and
saying that, "Oh, well, this is uh this is between the US and Iran." No, it's not. It's the US, Israel, and Iran. And
the US is always trying to portray itself as a neutral broker on this. They started the war. They're backing Israel.
They're arming Israel. They're providing every sub level of support to them militarily and then pretending that they're, you know, it playing referee in
the middle. And nobody believes it anymore. But they they have to do that because Israel relies on that compartmentalization.
While the US is fighting Iran, they're going and, you know, destroying and massacring people in South Lebanon and
massacring Palestinians in Gaza. and they need the world to to see these as separate conflicts. This is a really
important part of the Israeli deception of how they deceive the world in their sort of disingenuous framing. And what
Iran is saying is no, the source of all hostility, all death, all destruction in
the region is Israel. It's the Zionist entity.
And we have proof because as soon as Iran fired missiles this the last few days at Israel, what did Israel go do?
The first thing they did was shut off aid to the people in Gaza. First thing they did. So there Israel saying, "We're going to punish the Palestinians for
what the Iranians have done and by daring by having the nerve to fire missiles at us. We're going to punish those Palestinians and we're going to
use the Palestinians as leverage against the Iranians. That's exactly what Israel is doing. And then so there's there's
evidence there. So Iran h doesn't have to make a case. Israel has demonstrated
that it's using the people of Lebanon and the people of Gaza as leverage
as leverage against Iran. And so by extension, the US by allowing the compartmentalization is also allowing
Israel to do that. So Iran's put their drawn the red line said you you you bomb Beirut, we're going to you know there's
no there's no there are there's no ceasefire. We're going to hit uh targets in Israel and hit them hard and we're going to hit US bases. And they did. So
Iran's drawing the red lines now. And the US and Israel have to react or not react, whatever the case may be. But so
now Iran is setting the pace. That's what changed this week. Iran is now leading the pace of action reaction.
That's a big difference from where it was before. They achieve this by uh being patient during this lull in
hostilities and then coming out with a very clear strategic doctrine and policy and
drawing red lines and only and I will argue this Nema in international relations it's my belief through the
literature and through my studies and through what many other great scholars have have intimated which is that in the
international system. The system bends in favor of normative powers over time.
Rogue states, it the system does not bend in favor of rogue states can create problems temporarily, but in the long
run, they're going to be overtaken by other normative powers who are bandwagoning together and stability will
be achieved through those normative forces.
Um, Iran is is acting like a normative power. more and more and more. Only a normative power can draw a moral red
line. Weaker states can't do that. They they they can they can't enforce it either. Iran has drawn it and is
enforcing it. That is you could argue that's what superpowers are able to do.
But at the very least a mid-tier regional power and a normative actor in the international system. So other
normative actors, China, uh Russia, uh European countries,
European countries have to recognize this course of actions and reactions because they themselves abide by the
same rules in the international system or they have to the US doesn't have to abide by international law norms or
anything like that. it can take take it and leave it as it suits it because it's it's established itself as a as a global hedgeimon. And Israel's allied and
tethered to the US. So it also does not have to abide by any human rights conventions, any international law, any norms whatsoever. And they don't. And
they've proven they don't. But the the the that's the uh the irony of the international system is while the top
power doesn't need to uh play by the rules, the rest of the system must come together and have to even if they
don't believe in the international law, don't believe the US will ever abide by it or their ally Israel or Britain for instance, um when they're allied with
the US doing these very same activities, um the rest of the world must because if they don't there'll be total chaos in the international system and more
countries will lose uh as a result of that should uh hostilities uh carine out
of control. Um so so Iran's now stepped into that position and let me tell you
many people could not have predicted that 3 months ago and it's happening. It's it's incredible how it's happened and it's been very
ubtle, but as long as they stick and what I'll say, Nemo, last thing on this, if Iran sticks to its principles and
does not budge and includes Lebanon in any ceasefire packages and does not budge, do not give any ground
whatsoever, the longer they maintain this position, the other normative powers in the international system will see that
that's more bankable. it's more predictable. You can invest in that, right? They're they're eventually going to blame Israel as the source of the
instability and and probably by the United States as well ultimately um which many already
are. But it will become very clear. So then that opens the door for other countries to then take action either through sanctioning uh diplomatic
pressure and all Iran has to do is maintain its position, its policy. don't budge, maintain their red line, enforce
the red line, and all of a sudden all the things is if if Iran is immovable on these conditions, then other countries
will have to conform to that. And you look at what's happening already. Look at the fighting between Israel and the US politically. There are some, you
know, serious ma shouting matches and insults going back and forth in the US, the Zionist camp against Trump, uh, the
US against Israel, Israel against the US. That's all because of Iran.
That's because Iran drew this red line. That is the cause of that infighting. So Iran's already
created political friction between its two enemies who are supposed to be the best of allies and that's as a result of what
they have done. They could have not done it that way. They could have kept it compartmentalized. Say we don't want to worry about Lebanon. It's going to
complicate our our situation here. Let's just focus on Iran and the US or whatever our security and don't worry
about Israel and don't speak about Palestine. That's what most countries would do.
But a superpower or a regional power can do more than that. And Iran is doing just that. And look at the results. They
can sit back and watch watch their enemies start sniping at each other, arguing with each other of what to do,
what not to do. Look at Lebanon. I mean, Nema, did you see the interview with Christian Amen and Joseph Ayun, the Lebanese president just a few days ago?
Did you see how strident and how uh Aun was just slagging off the Iranians and Hezbollah, wagging his finger and
saying, "You can't interfere in our affairs and whatnot." But guess what? What's he been saying in
the last ? Oh, Israel cannot have total security and warfare is not a solution. Before he was saying, "We want
good relations with Israel. Please, Israelis, please. you know, bomb us all you want, but you know, we we're not
going to do anything against you. You know, we're going to be good a good little uh neighbor, but the problem is Hezbollah and those Iranians blaming
everything Israel is doing on Hezbollah and Iran. He's now flipped. The reason he's flipped because the pressure the pressure is accumulating on on him as a
puppet, as a proxy of Washington, of Riad and Tel Aviv.
He's feeling the pressure because of this. And that's because of what Iran has done. Not not necessarily because of
Hezbollah's resistance and steadfastness. That's been a constant, but because Iran stepped up as a
regional power and has dropped the line and dro and and enforced it. That is look look. It's just amazing. I'm
watching all the shifts in position after this week. To me, it's incredible.
Yeah. I think when he says Donald Trump says all talk, no action, it reminds me what he was talking about during the presidential election against Joe Biden.
He's really feeling that he's running the show is, you know, the enemy somehow is the rival. But this is not the rival.
This is totally different. They have done each and everything that they told us before this war started. They said we're going to close the straight off
for Moses. They did. They said they're going to hit each and every base in the region, American bases in the region.
They did that. You know, what you just mentioned I think is so important. This is the first time to to understand how
significant is this shift in the Iranian strategy in the region. This is the first time Iran attacking Israel without being attacked by Israeli government.
Exactly.
That's the whole point of what has happened so far. And nobody seems to believe that in Israel. There's so much shock with the reality of what's going on.
Who who who acts first sets the pace of actions and reactions.
And the US always acts first. They always do preemptive strikes and they knew that strategically they're able to
then control and to ma mod modulate the escalation um uh ladder as it were and and and what their opponents might or might not do.
and Iran waited waited waited and waited and and while
they're waiting the political situation's deteriorating in America for Trump and in Israel for Netanyahu
and um it it's also created this whole situation this week has created loads of new problems politically inside Israel
with uh with the Netanyahu regime. Okay, it might not be significant. And it's not going to change the you know
ambitions of the Zionist state but it's it's going to basically I think create a lot of indecision and delays
uh and and a lot of people will then question even in the military will begin to question u whether this is
sustainable or not whether we can fight uh a fivef frontont war whether that's sustainable or not um they have all
sorts of structural problems in Israel as a result of Same with the United States. Military militarily the US has huge structural problems in the region
now. They can't they can't maintain total deterrence. They can't defend Israel anymore. They can't. It's not
happening. So that this is just going to transform. So if it's a war of attrition, you have to favor the Iranians in a war of attrition. And this
is ultimately going to be a war of attrition. It is a war of attrition.
it's going to f and it'll probably uh by the same token if Hezbollah sticks to their guns and doesn't waver from their
position and doesn't uh do anything. I think I think it would be a huge mistake to go into any disarmament talks with
the Lebanese government because we all see what happens as soon as you disarm you get wiped out. Uh and the Israelis would go completely all out if there
wasn't if they didn't have any resistance in South Lebanon. they would very quickly annex uh 1/5if of Lebanese territory without a
doubt and that would be the end of that and then they put a buffer zone over the Latani River as well. So I mean that's just certain that's going to happen and
that's what a lot of people in Israel are calling for now. They they view that like they view the golden heights like they view Mount Herman. They view South
Lebanon as theirs, theirs in terms of uh uh their their sec zone of security
interest, but also theirs in terms of biblical, you know, birthright. They they believe that that's part of the
kingdom of Israel promised to them 3,000 years ago, and they're going to take it.
And this is a golden opportunity. the the hard right, the ethnationalist uh quasi Nazi right in uh in Israel, they
they see this as their golden opportunity to realize uh the the first steps in a greater Israel project
and they feel that if they don't take advantage of this now that they won't get this opportunity again because they're never going to have a pro-Israeli uh administration in
Washington. This is it. Donald Trump is the last harrah for the Zionist state in America. I'm telling you right now, it's
it after what they've done. So, they didn't get they didn't win the the lottery uh in 3 weeks like they claimed
or thought they would uh with regards to breaking Iran and gaining regime change into Iran. And now they're stuck with
this uh incredible situation and there's no way out. the only way out is to cut your losses. And the US classic late stage empire, uh they they just can't.
The collective ego of the empire, they can't transition out of this position they've gotten themselves into. They
can't do it gracefully. I would even argue that they can't do it as gracefully as in the
British if by comparison the way it's going for the US the the British did did it much more gracefully than the US have
done but the the Britain had actual material commonwealth that comprised of you know 25% of the world's you know inhabitable
land or something like that. So, I mean, but the US doesn't have the Commonwealth
officially, but they their empire is global and it's and it's total in terms of military and economic enforcement.
And I I just it's it's going to be very hard for them to to to to admit defeat
um especially w with with Israel, how tightly wound they are with with Israel politically in the US and internationally. So, it's just going to mean they're going to have to bleed out.
The US is going to bleed out economically in the very same way that I believe that Europe is bleeding out economically by sticking to their old
colonial uh machinations and visions of grandeur of old Europe that they're destroying their own economy and viability of
future industries and so forth in order to stick it to the Russians uh over Ukraine. So to the point where
life will be unaffordable in Europe because of uh ridiculous energy prices and uh the fact that all the governments are uh putting all their money and
piling up debt to rearm Europe uh against a Russian menace that wouldn't be there quite frankly if the United
States didn't create the Russian menace by uh by fermenting a civil war uh in Ukraine. So it's the same problem in the
Middle East. the the US is going to have to bleed out and so is the so are the other the Gulf monarchies quite frankly
and what's left at the end what will happen to Israel who knows uh what what shape that situation's going to take but
u I guess the thing that we're all concerned about Nema is that what could happen on the way down how much damage could happen on the way down is Israel
also kicks and screams all the way to the exit of history um in terms of the viability of their political, you know,
ethnationalist uh Jewish nationalist project in Israel, the Zionist project.
How much damage can they do to the region and to themselves and to their neighbors uh as they're kicking and screaming all the way to the to the exit door of history? Who knows?
I think what you've just mentioned about Ukraine is the key issue in Lebanon as well, the civil war, and they're trying
to do that by using the Lebanese government because if you're not if you're not capable to defeat Hezbollah
in the southern part of Lebanon, then you have to bomb Beirut. If Iran comes in and he says that if you attack Beirut, we're going to attack you. Then
the third option would be you know using the government in Lebanon to make some sort of civil war because the whole
concept Patrick is to you know to put pressure on Hezbollah to be more focused
on domestic issues than fighting Israelis. Yes.

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Part 2 of 2

This is what they're trying to do. And that that interview that you've mentioned about own the president of
Lebanon on CNN that didn't last you know that didn't age well for own because right after that Israelis attacked an
army you know a general major general commander of of Lebanese army in his vehicle
together with another commander and a soldier. They killed all of them in that attack. That was the end. And then the
president of Lebanon didn't have anything to do. He didn't know what to say about it.
Well, he's shifted. He's he he's since he's he's shifting now. And you know, listen, if if Lebanon had solidarity
among the sectarian factions and weren't so slavishly pro- US and pro-Saudi, the problem is
Lebanon is uh the structural corruption in that country is is tragic. and by
keeping it in a state of crisis for 50 years. Okay, Lebanon's been in a state of crisis for 50 years. It's a very
small country. It doesn't have a manufacturing base. It's got some agricultural uh base, but bes and they had finance in
Beirut, but that's that's all gone pretty much. They've destroyed the economy and the banking sector there.
They also had trading and shipping. uh and they had but in the last couple of decades they're just surviving off of
Gulf money either the injection of Saudi or uh uh Emirati or other money coming into Beirut to build high-rise
apartments so that Saudis can you know have some fun on the week on the weekends they come they come to Lebanon
and have uh you know MUA marriages with you know sign up a wife for two weeks and then divorce her by July and then go
back to Saudi. Um that they're relying on the laress of the Gulf and the the mentality it's created Stockholm syndrome for the Lebanese government.
Very dysfunctional. They're stuck to this confessionalist system that's based on a 1958 census that doesn't reflect
the actual demographics. So Lebanon, if it did, then the Shiite uh the president would be Shiite. Okay? and Joseph Aayun
would be the speaker of the parliament and probably the Sunni would remain prime minister. But so so what happens
when you you uh you you create the whole economy is on a short-term knife edge uh
everyone's an opportunist. You tend to clump together with your sectarian uh compartments in the country. It's
families and sectarian identity and there's only people you trust or do business with. And then that makes it very easy for the Saudis and the the
Americans to go and and and sort of pick people off and separate them and give money to some and not money to others
and to really corrupt to make people very self-interested, very tribal. And that's what they've done uh in Lebanon.
Saudi does it mainly with money. Okay.
Uh the United States does it with with money uh developmental contracts, loans.
The IMF also is part of that US uh influence operation uh in Lebanon. And then the U through the UN uh the number
one employer in Lebanon, one of the number one employers are foreign NOS's. There's thousands of NOS's in Lebanon.
So in terms of the educated class, college graduates, uh NOS's are one of the biggest employers in the country.
And then they'll they'll poach all the best ones to uh to to work in Europe or or New York for McKenzie or whatever
these uh US consultancy firms. And then they'll just they'll buy off the uh other people, Marionite Christians with
US passports for their kids. The kids, the parents, the kids not born in the US, but they've all got US passports.
That's part of the influence operation.
And for the Shiite community in Lebanon, nothing. No money, no funding, no US passports. You get nothing. You get
nothing but threats and accusations that you're all terrorists and that you are the reason why Lebanon is not performing
economically. And they managed to engineer this type of atmosphere in Lebanon. And that's that's how the US is
able to get in and just nearly start a civil war under this president. They're really pushing they're really pushing the Lebanese hard with incentives,
coercion, threats, and bribes. Uh, and the Saudis are part of this as well to to to say that you need to disarm
Hezbollah. Well, look, this is exactly the same playbook as the Lebanese civil war from 1978
uh to the 90s was that Israel used the Palestinian, the PLO
uh to create division in Lebanon to get every possible group fighting each other, pull in Syria into the equation because effectively that's what it was.
It was a it was a war uh against Israel.
it became a war of really Syria versus Israel or Israel and US interests versus Syria and and and also Shiite uh uh
43 minutesfactions in Lebanon. But they they've done the same thing here because as you rightly pointed out Nema, just a few minutes ago, if they can make Hezbollah
embroiled in domestic issues, Israel has full cart blanch to do and take what it
wants in South Lebanon, including gas deposits off the coast of southern Lebanon. So, so that's been the goal of
the US and Israel throughout all of these conflicts in Lebanon was to have the country completely embroiled in in
civil war, civil strife, infighting. And by doing that, they can then control it and then also take whatever land or resources that they need conveniently.
And and you know when they I'll say this as well you know when all those factions disarmed from the civil war in 199192
there was a massive disarmament. Now that that that was like one of the beginnings of the end of the longunning Lebanese civil war which was devastating
for that country economically and socially and everything else drove a drove a lot of people out of the country. Lebanese went to Australia,
Mexico, Brazil, the United States, Europe. they, you know, all into into the Gulf to, you know, as well, but
emptied out the country of their best and brightest. And they said, "You all have to disarm all the Christian militias, Lebanese forces, all these
other different uh factions, uh, Muslim factions as well. Only one faction was allowed to keep its arms in 1992. Guess which faction that was? Hezbollah. Why?
because they needed somebody to defend the southern border because the Lebanese army couldn't do it because the Lebanese
army is not allowed to do it. Lebanese army is not allowed. The US polices
every single piece of equipment that gets procured from the Lebanese army.
They're not allowed to have any air force, any air defense, anything like that. They're not they're forbidden. Not explicitly, but that's a US policy.
That's the power of the Israel lobby.
The Israel lobby exists in America to micromanage the what the US does to its
neighbors. So this is a way of Israel controlling Lebanon without having to be in Lebanon. They do it through the US as
their proxy. And and Israel is very clever. They know that there's certain things that cannot be shipped to the Lebanese army. anything that they can
use to defend its airspace or its border. They want it just to be down to Hezbollah because then they could then label them as terrorists as we spoke
about previously and get the US and their allies to do the same and all of a sudden it's a war on terror. It's not
it's not it's not it's not a war of aggression by Israel against their neighbor Lebanon. Uh it's it's not a
parttheid in Palestine. No, no, it's a war on terror. That's how they frame it and they want to keep it in that frame.
The US and Israel want to maintain that frame and not allow it to be framed as what it is. And Iran has said, "No, no, no.
We're reframing it. We're going to bypass everything that you've constructed, all the fake edifice, the fake framing of Middle Eastern uh affairs and groups and and conflicts.
We're we're we're reframing it now.
We're going to frame it strictly under international law and strictly in terms of, you know, holding Israel accountable
for all of the egregious crimes against humanity that it it's doing with impunity. This the whole US position,
the entire US, everything politically, militarily, it's all designed to protect Israel's impunity to to allow Israel to
act with impunity. That is really ultimately what the US function is politically, militarily, all the
47 minutessanctions, all the labeling of terrorist groups here, there, and the other. It's all for one single reason, which is to
defend and protect Israel's right to to act with total impunity and criminality
against its its residents, its neighbors, uh its illegally occupied Palestinian residents there and all of
its neighbors as well and Iran and everybody else. That's that is the and that policy of the US is going to bring
down the United States. It's bringing down the US as a as a global empire by def having to maintain that it's so
unsustainable. It's so obviously unsustainable and this president is clinging to it desperately as is the
entire US government and uh political establishment because they've been doing it for so long they don't know any other way. They they they can't imagine a
world without sort of you know Israel is our greatest friend and ally. They there's no other option for them.
They just can't envision a world where this lie doesn't exist. They they
everything, all the money, I mean, money, the blood, the treasure, the lives, the price that's been paid to
maintain this false facade that Israel is the only democracy in the Middle East and they're they're they're like us.
they they exude European values and we must protect them and everybody everybody who's uh resisting them is a
terrorist. That's the complete Western paradigm right there.
And it's not sustainable. And it's taken the Islamic Republic of Iran to prove that it's not sustainable. They've
forced the issue and they they no one has stood up for the Palestinians. Nobody has put their money where their mouth is where their
49 minutesmouth is. When I I remember the day true promise one Nema I see the pictures of Palestinians looking up at the sky and
he's seeing all the fireworks come and they're out there just crying in the streets of Gaza crying. They say the
first time anybody on this planet has stepped up to do anything for us.
You know, it it it was just like to me that was a historic moment. And you know, not to take anything away from Hezbollah, they effectively done the same thing.
They they they tried to enforce a red line in order to pull a a large
contingent of the IDF who was conducting a brutal genocide after October 7th against the Palestinians. Hezbollah got
involved to to to to you know pull a large percentage of the Israeli forces away. And you know what? It worked
temporarily. It worked. They they had to pull out forces from Gaza and reallocate them and it created a panic
and uh it's of course it's what's resulted has been devastating for Lebanon. But to blame that on Hezbollah
means that you're okay with allowing Israel just to massacre hundreds of thousands of women and children for you
know that you're okay with that and that's a big pill to swallow for any Arab country and Iran's the only
country aside from Hezbollah and I I'll give the Lebanese credit for that because Hezbollah are part of Lebanon.
So technically that's Lebanon. And that's why they they they need to stop this sectarian def defining the Lebanese
have against each other is just so horrendous and so shortsighted.
And ultimately that will be their undoing. If they can if Lebanon can't get over get past their petty uh
small-minded sectarian worldview, um they're going to lose territory. That's what it's going to end up with.
Lebanon will be smaller. It's already a tiny country. It's going to be even smaller because if the only thing that
they can do to survive intact as a country is they need to be have total solidarity and that needs to come from
the top. And unfortunately, you've got a US Saudi Israeli puppets in
Joseph Aun and No, no Salam. Sadly, they're installed by Western interests and Zionist interests and paid for by
the Gulf in various ways. And that's very sad. I if this current leadership in Lebanon can wake up before it's too
late. Otherwise, they're going to end up fleeing government. That's what that's where it's going to end up. They could either stand up and do the right thing
or they're going to end up having to flee probably to a foreign country because what they're doing is they're they're they're really opening the door.
They're giving a rolling out a red carpet for a violent civil war and allowing the Americans just to totally manipulate them. Tom Barack is just
walking in there like he's the viceroy of, you know, the Levant and he's saying, "You need to the Lebanese army
needs to disarm Hezbollah, you know, and we're going to make sure that happens and and they need to do that cuz we're telling you to do that. Therefore, you
know, it's just so colonial, the arrogance and nobody can say a word about Israel." No, no. And they've got it's the
Stockholm syndrome, Nema. they end up loving their oppressor and blaming other inmates in the prison. That's kind of
what what's happened uh with with Lebanon. It's an incredible situation.
But, you know, small states are weak, but small states can also play an important role in in stabilizing a
region if they can have cohesion internally because then they have allies and then they have leverage and they have
European allies as well. the Europeans, if Lebanon had solidarity against Israel,
they there would be quite a few European countries that will be forced to come to their support and that changes things massively. And that's what that's the
thing that America and Israel do not want to happen. That's the thing they fear the most is Lebanese solidarity
against Israel. That is the number one fear of the Americans and the Israelis.
And the Americans have spent billions of dollars to break up that country, billions to to to have them fighting against each
other. And so have the have the Gulf States and so and Israel as well as obviously that's at the top of their
list. So there's a book by actually it's in my important book to read which is by David Hurst.
I don't know if this comes out uh beware of small states. uh former Middle East
editor of the Guardian. Uh that's explains some of what I'm talking about in terms of the geopolitics of the post
Sykes Pika era in the Middle East. And the other one is this one which is by Halaj Jabber which is Hezbollah born
with a vengeance which is to me the definitive history of the of the beginnings of Hezbollah uh here which is
a great a great book by Hala and um yeah so but I doubt anybody in the Trump administration's read any of those.
No they don't want to.
Yeah. Patrick, there is a report from Iran that a gator delegation has arrived
in Tehran to discuss bilateral rel relations and regional develop developments including the latest
diplomatic efforts aimed at ending the war with the United States. I can assume that there could be some sort of changes
in the you know the nature of the relationship between Iran and Gata as an outcome of this war. But when it comes
to the Iran and the United States, there is nothing there for to play. They don't have anything you know they
the two sides they were trying to talk directly in Islamabad.
Two delegations. One of them you know the head of delegation was JD Vance the vice president of the United States. The
other one is Iran the head of Iranian parliament. They couldn't do anything with with those negotiation. How how
come can we believe that the delegation or I would say even the guy from
Islamabad knower the chief of staff the head you know of
of Islamabad of Pakistan going to do something about there is nothing there to be worked on in my opinion nothing
literally nothing Donald Trump is trying to force terms on Iranians and Iranians say no this is the reality of the war
this is the battleground and everything going to be the reflection of the reality on the battleground. We're not going to change our policy, our
strategy. That's why they're not reaching a deal. That's why Donald Trump today tweeted that they're not bending, they're not, you know, backing down.
And how do you see the the role of these GCC countries like Qatar? Are we going to see some sort of shift little shift
from these countries? uh you're already seeing a little shift with Qatar. Um they they've absolutely reconsidered their position in the last 3 months.
Much much different position right now.
Um I think the difference is Qatar is probably the least uh of the Gulf countries that is under Isra Israeli influence.
So the the Abraham Accords um have you know it it's the Abraham Accords are a
disaster for the Gulf States. Um but the UAE is being absorbed by Israel on every conceivable front. Their their
intelligence services are in there. MSAD has untold number of you know working stations within the UAE. They're they've
inter intermingled everything from their uh cloud computing to uh their security
services to cyber cyber military uh commercial. There's I don't know how many hundreds of thousands of Israelis t
quote tourists running around the UAE as we speak. So it's effectively taking it over. And that means there's going to be
no hope for the UAE in terms of having a reasonable position with Iran. So, and if I was Iran, I wouldn't entertain
anything in until they formally renounce the Abraham Accords, but that's not going to happen. Saudi Arabia halfway in
between maybe veering towards independence still tethered to the US.
The problem with all of the Gulf states, Nema, they're too exposed to the US dollar. This is the problem. Um, and you
know what? This is also the problem with Iraq. Listen, uh the US have Iraq by the neck. Uh and they've done that
structurally by design after the war. Uh so much of Iraqi uh oil revenue it has
to run through US banks in in in uh in New York. I I even believe that it's my understanding, I
could be wrong, that the Iraqi sovereign wealth fund is in dollars in US banks.
So if if they go too far off the reservation, they could find themselves being sanctioned. So they they've got that leverage over.
And you know what?
All that would take it probably would this all would end tomorrow, Nema, if Iraq
declared their airspace um off limits for the US and Israel. It really that simple.
That's the key. That's the key, I think.
It's that simple. And so the US have quietly got Iraq by the balls financially. That's a huge sword over
their neck. And a lot of people aren't speaking. They're not they don't speak about this. So
yeah, that's that's strategically that there's no there's no doubt about it.
That's the legacy of the Iraq war remains.
It remains um but less and less so. the the the the political influence is certainly not there with the US but the
financial control is Qatar is very exposed to the US dollar in US institutions Saudi Arabia massively
massively Saudi Arabia and Qatar also have their own leverage as well they do have some leverage financially and politically and and how they've
intermingled institutions with the west uh like academic civil society business there's a lot they've done a lot of work
to to to gain influence in the US and more broadly in the west. Bahrain uh is
extremely weak. The royal family there is in extremely weak position. They're totally reliant on Saudi Arabian
security. And Kuwait um which is really relying on US protection is just
becoming more and more exposed uh by through Iranian strikes. And uh and I
even I I even think that uh I'm not convinced that the attack on the Kuwaiti airport was actually from Iranian
missiles and it could have very well been something else or even a false flag for that matter because you know after
that attack you saw them ramping up the uh the sales pitch for anti- drone a new anti- drone system there that's going to
cost billions of dollars. And so everybody's got their economic incentives within the whole chaos of the
region right now. And but uh but Qatar with the least amount of Israeli
influence has the best chance of being independent. And then I think it would be smart for them to ally with Iran
because they share the biggest gas field in the world arguably. Um so they need to have some kind of a dependable stable
working relationship with absolutely no problems or questions that to me. So while it's a small country Qatar
uh it's I if if it depends which way it goes in terms of its orientation with Iran it can be very
very prosperous very beneficial for Qatar but it's going to have to change it's going to have to have a very clear
uh deliberate orientation with Iran that it's very clear and everyone can see um that's different than what the other
Gulf states are are doing are confused because they're they're all exposed. Kuwait's hugely exposed for US dollars.
Uh as is probably Bahrain as well and Bahrain's militarily occupied. It's an occupied country. The US occupy
Bahrain's not very big, but it's occupied by the US military. So they're not sovereign. They can't make any decisions on their own. They don't have any foreign policy.
Uh the majority of the country is Shiite, you know. So it's, you know, they have a it's a typical British ex-colonial
minority in power over a majority, you know, minority desperate monarch in
charge of a different uh religious majority. Typical. Um, so yeah, so I
mean Saudi Arabia is is to me the one that swings the balance. They they maintain very good relations with a
number of other superpowers including Russia. They were there at St.
Petersburg Economic Forum. They had the pos VIP position of prominence at that event which is one of Russia's main uh
geopolitical salons on the calendar and also China and others. So they Saudi Arabia could swing the balance, but
they're also it's also bad for them because they have to they they sit between Israel and Iran. And so Saudi Arabia has to also be very careful
strategically for their own protection and their own sort of viability.
Uh if that they don't lean too far to any particular side. Um so that's that's one thing in in in that sense Saudi Arabia is like Turkey in that sense.
they have to dance with multiple partners all the time. Um, and that's that's becoming evident. That wasn't necessarily the case before. They were
really the regional hedgeimon. Saudi Arabia.
Not anymore. Not anymore. No. Iran is the regional hedgeimon. It's very clear Turkey could have been the regional
hedgeimon, but unfortunately they're tied at the hip to NATO and uh there's
not much they can do and they can't seem to extricate themselves from their economic uh relationships with Israel or Azeraijan.
That's for other reasons by the way. Um but uh Turkey has its own agenda eth its own ethnoturkish
agenda and its own Islamist uh transition uh as well which which which by the way that's going to fail. I think that's that's delusional on their part.
Well it's it's a which part's going to fail the uh the the Islamic transition Asia. I think the way that
Central Asia Yeah. panurkish panturkic uh movement. Yeah. And so they did a lot of terrible things Turkey.
They they brought in weaggguers who they who they recognize as part of the Turk uh ethno you know family as it were
5 minuteshistorically uh brought them into Syria and there are the most vicious terrorists the most vicious terrorists.
They brought in the Weaggguers and other people from uh central Asia and that was all facilitated through Turkey and the MIT
Turkish intelligence and what they did in Syria is horrible, you know, really horrible. The most violent the the most
vicious ISIS fighters in in many cases were from there. Uh and so Turkeykey's
done many horrible things in the name of you know their sort of neotomist neotomism or I I call it it's like
Turkish MAGA you know make Turkey great again that's the 30-year project of Erdogan that began in the early 90s
you know so he the AK party that's this is a real project and they've transformed institutions in the country
and to bring to make it more Islamic and to move away from the Mustafa um
uh at a Turk secular kamal uh at a Turk secular society and
political economy and transform it to an Islamist one but that's also having some problems as well and you know so I think
he's failed Turkey has really failed in the eyes of the UMAH because he he talks a big game with
Netanyahu, but he has nothing to do materially to stop the genocide in Gaza,
which is a huge betrayal of m the Muslim community globally. It it it really
showed how how superficial and fake the the Erdogan sort of and and Turkey
as Islam is champion of the Islamic world. They could never be a custodian of Alaxam Mosque ever unless they're
willing to step up and actually do something to restrain Israel. Then they're worthy. But the only country
that stepped up to actually do something for the Palestinians has been Iran
and Hezbollah as well. But but Iran especially. You know, Iran has taken the fiercest blow of the empire as
punishment for what they've done. It's as simple as that. The biggest conventional military in the world and
as the Americans say, the most powerful military in history, the human race.
Iran has stood toe-to-toe with them and not only they still standing but they've now flipped the dynamic the balance of
power in their favor and the US is on its heels and that's extraordinary and really it started with defense of the
Palestinians because that's the that's that's always what Israel's problem with Iran has been because they defend the Palestinians. Iran's not any sort of
physical threat of Israel. Well, they're quite far away, but but they are the only country that would not let go of the Palestinian issue, and that made
them the enemy. And that's why they've had this fake campaign of against non-existent Iranian nukes for 40 plus
years now. And all of this to demonize Iran. Why? because they were uh a
potential resistance for the uh Israeli Zionist project in the region and that they
would defend the native Palestinian population, which is the the thing that that that that's in the way of total Israeli expansion. It's the natives.
It's the Palestinians. And the only people willing to put their life on the line and is is Iran to put it all on the
line for the Palestinians. It's the only country willing to take the beating from the United States and Israel
and sanctions from every single other Western ally. Why? To defend the Palestinians and also now to defend the people of South Lebanon as well.
And they're taking that punishment. Why? Because that's what great powers do.
That's how history will look at it. So beyond today's propaganda, beyond all the lies, all the sort of
fake talking points that we get thrown at every every minute in the west, history will look back at this is what
great powers do. Great powers can draw moral red lines and great powers will fight for their
principles. They're not going to give up on their principles. So Iran has established itself as a great power historically speaking and the United
States is a great power, formerly great power now in rapid decline. And Israel is probably a fast disappearing wannabe
great power that has uh you know embarked on the ultimate Fouian journey which ends in complete disaster.
um in biblically speaking as well. So yeah, that's yeah, hopefully we make it
long enough to look back in history and be able to evaluate it in those terms.
That's the big question if we can survive.
Patrick, in the case of Turkey today, Aragon said that Turkeykey's security begins not only in Hatai. Hatai is the
southern province of Turkey which they stole which they stole from Syria. Yeah.
They Yeah. In the early early 20th century.
That's Syria. Hatai. But anyway, go ahead.
And but also he says not only in Hatai but also in Aleppo, Damascus and Beirut.
We will not turn a blind eye to aggression against them. and he said that the whole agenda of Israeli greater
Israel we know their agenda we're prepared to go against it today then we had the Israeli reaction Benjamin Ednau
came out that Turkey or Erdogan is the most anti-semitic you know on this planet and he said
we know in terms when it comes to the talking points Turkey goes too far but when it comes to the actions you don't
see anything happening and they have the full support of the Turkish people. The recent poll the recent polls show that
something like 97% of Turkish people they're supporting the the policy to go against Israel.
Absolutely.
And that's not been that has not been translated in the policy the foreign policy of Turkey.
Yeah. If if if Erdogan was serious, which he's not. He's a good talker. He's like Trump. He He's He's a great
politician. Very arguably the most successful Turkish politician in the modern era, arguably. And he's a great
talker. If if he was if he was genuine, if he was sincere, uh he would be calling Alav
in Baku uh in Azerbaijan saying uh no more of your oil for the Israelis. Finished.
Finished. sanctions. We're going to sanction the Israelis and you're going to go with us Azarbaijan and you're going to sanction alongside of us and
we're going to create a united front because we need to put pressure on to save our fellow Muslims, Sunni Muslims
in Gaza. You see this? This is why Iran, the West want to frame them as Shiite
and they want to separate them from the rest of the Umah.
But the world is now beginning to see not to view Iran as a Shiite Muslim country, but as a Muslim country. Okay?
And that ma that means Iran has ascended to the leader of the Islamic world.
That's the position Turkey wanted.
That's the position that the Ottoman Empire may have had previously but no longer have and will never have uh for
the very reasons which we have just discussed.
Iran is now the de facto leader of the Islamic world globally. That's who everyone's looking up to.
Not even the Russians have gone toe-to-toe with the US militarily.
Not even Russia. There is no country on this planet that has gone toe-to-toe
with the United States and Israel simultaneously and are not only standing on their two feet, but have managed to
completely wreck the US's multiple bases and have taken out 75 at
least if you count Yemen and Iran. those two conflicts which I consider to be one
uh 75 fixed wing aircraft at least maybe maybe 80 by by the end of this week um
that's that's what the US lost out of the first and second Iraq wars that's
you know over 12 years of conflict 75 fixed wing aircraft they've lost that many in the last 12 months or a bit more
than 12 months but and all the bases is you know that would be like in the
Vietnam war Nema if the Vicong I mean the US lost a lot of men and aircraft in in the V eight years in
Vietnam eight years of combat operations official combat operations um that would be like if the Vietkong
reached out and took out the US bases in the Philippines Guam Okinawa and like the Solomon Islands and in
northern Australia like wiped all that out at the beginning the Vietnam war.
They didn't. They couldn't. They didn't have the capability or the technology to do that. Iran did. Iran did that.
So, you know, it's it's historic. It just hasn't sunk
in yet in America, in the West. They just they haven't they're still pretending the US is a dominant power in
West Asia or the Middle East. They're still believing this is true. and Trump is messing around with this stupid
blockade and you know like like like this is putting it putting America's foot down in the region and you know we're going
to be dictating terms to these Iranians and we've we've dismantled and destroyed them. They have no leadership left. That's what he said the other day.
They're down to the third tier of leadership. No, they're not. Iran is a fully functioning society, government
and military, and they they're forcing they're forcing just with a few missile
barges, they've now forced the United States and Israel to have to completely retool and reconfigure their their
position visav Lebanon. That's not a that's not a defeated country. Sorry.
And if it was so if if the US was so powerful, how come you can't use all of your military bases anymore in the in the Persian Gulf? How come Saudi Arabia
is on pins and needles of how much or to what degree they're going to allow the US to not only use their bases, but even
allow their airspace to be used? That's because they're afraid of Iran. Because Iran is uh backed up their threats.
Simple. Why? Because Iran is now a normative regional superpower. That's why
and the GCC countries are secondary powers now. Yeah.
Thank you so much, Patrick, for being with us today. Great pleasure as always.
And please go before wrapping up, please go to 21st Century Wire and you can follow Patrick on patrickhennisonson.substack.com.
I'm going to put all of the links in the description of this video. You can go there and find it. And here in the
comment section, our friend is putting up the YouTube channel of Patrick. And
I'm going to put all the links in the description right after this podcast is done.
Thank you so much, Patrick. See you soon. Take care. Thanks, Nemo. Take care. Bye-bye.

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Part 1 of 2

Trump Orders MASSIVE Iran Strike, Iran HITS F-35s in Jordan | Patrick Henningsen
Danny Haiphong
Streamed live 96 minutes ago #iran #iranwar #trump

Analyst Patrick Henningsen joins the show to discuss Iran's devastating retaliation to Trump massive strike order which is set to escalate further as the US rapidly moves to catastrophic war. We break down the latest developments and what they mean for you economically and geopolitically.



Transcript

by guest Patrick Hennington, returning friend of the show and he is the host of 21st Century Wire. Patrick, good to see you again.
Good to see you, too. Great to be with you, Daddy.
Yes, great to be with you. Now, uh I wanted to uh update everyone on the latest developments and get your
reaction to them. So, it's been a very busy last or so since this program was last on. Uh we had the
United States uh begin another round of war with Iran. The war has not really ended especially according to Iran's
perspective, but the strikes have come raining down. This time the justification is the supposedly downed
Apache helicopter that was blamed on Iran over the straight of Hormuz. and Sentcom uh the United States Central
Command in the region launched a wave of strikes. They hit Sirk which is not too far from the Manab school I believe just
uh dozens of kilometers away. Jas Keshum and Bonder Abbas Iran did answer back in
the I believe it was in Sirk there was reservoir tanks that were hit. The Financial Times says that these strikes
cause 20,000 people to be left without water and Iran forced to take emergency measures. In all uh intensive accounts,
this is a massive war crime. Trump said that overall the strikes were about 20 by the United States. Uh while Iran has
said they targeted at least 21 sites over night in retaliation. And here is
some of what they had to say. 21 targets hit across the region, including an air base in Jordan, the Al Azro air base,
which Iran says uh successfully hit an F-35 hanger uh base, which uh uh the United
tates has denied. And I'm just going to show some images of other things that happened including the downing of an MQ9 Reaper drone. The fifth fleet in
Bahrain. The US Naval Fifth Fleet was also hit. I can show images of that. But Patrick, seems like we're in another round of war. Trump is promising strikes
tonight. Uh B-52s are on their way. Uh what's going on here? Why now? And what do you make of the overall situation?
Iran says the strikes are only going to get harder. They're going to start targeting oil infrastructure if their oil infrastructure is hit. This is what Trump is promising. Bridges, oil wells.
Uh they are now fair game again. What's going on?
Firstly, um I think it I don't uh I don't believe or I'm not I'm not clear or confident about the provenence of a
claim that Iran shot down this US Blackhawk helicopter or Apache Apache helicopter. I'm not uh I'm not
convinced. Um I I don't have any clear confirmation for the Iranians and normally they're they're quite forthcoming uh with things that they
shoot down in their their trophy case of uh US aircraft which is just getting bigger uh by the day. Uh so the the
question is was it a crash? Um we've heard the Iranian foreign minister say this this is a crash. These things
happen. Uh but the the claim by CNN initially was that that this Apache helicopter was brought
down by a Iranian shy drone. They don't shy drones don't travel very fast. I I doubt that they could even keep up with
an Apache helicopter. Um so that's kind of strange. Doesn't make a whole lot of sense. Um there's a number of other
things that could shoot down an Apache helicopter and maybe not a Shahi drone, but uh so so it's it's it's not uh it's not at the moment not very credible.
There's no confirmation. So that means if the US reaction was complete, which was completely disproportionate, then
that's a false flag. The US is is using it as a false flag. U did did the Israelis shoot at this Apache? Uh did
did was it a malfunction? You know where where are they say that two pilots were rescued. How how do we know this? Is there any confirmation of this? Any
footage of it? No, nothing. There's nothing from the United States. There's only statements and claims. Nothing. So
that's the first thing. So if that's the case, I mean, I really think it's important because if this escalates and who knows where it's going to lead,
wouldn't you want to know how it started? Um, I know that nobody in America cares. Uh, that's not how their
brains operate, but you know, sensible people would want to know. So, that's the other thing. So that that so if uh
if this does escalate and it does go a lot further um certainly then you could say this is by design this is a
provocation then you know is the United States trying to re uh in a way you could say they're trying to recapture
the um escalation dominance. In other words what Iran did this week was was
massive. They basically during a a lull in hostilities that's been like pretty
much for a month over a month they then drew a red line uh regarding Lebanon in
Israel and then Israel stepped over that red line and Iran attacked. So that
means at that point Iran now controls the pace of action and reaction. That's
that's where you want to be in any conflict. and they they're very patient.
They bite at their time and they they they seize that opportunity and that means that everyone else has to conform to their pace um because they and that
includes the diplomatic side as well as the military side. So it's a it's a massive advantage for Iran. So I would
read this false flag personally as a way of the US very deceptively and underhandedly as expected because it's
you're dealing with America here. um is trying to regain control of the pace of action um or what some people might call
escalation dominance or the escalation ladder and so forth. So because who knows where this would lead with Iran. I mean they were able to basically pull
Lebanon into the package of negotiations and and enforce it. So that means they could the
next step is pretty clear. they can pull Gaza into the negotiations package and then and they are and they are and I I feel
like Iran had said that they they want to do that. They are doing that.
Yeah. This this is the game changer. So that that means you're in a totally different situation now in the region.
And and you did you see there's a lot of infighting between um Israeli operatives, some of these sort of
blathering uh talentless operatives in the US media like Mark Lavine um just absolutely just uh breathing fire and
and slinging mud at the US for even bringing up the possibility of not finish quote finishing the job. Israelis
politicians are are are smearing the United States saying this is totally unacceptable. We're not going to listen to America. We need to do what's what's
in our interests and don't listen to to Trump. Okay, these are people that were like erecting golden statues in honor
of, you know, Donald Trump um just a few weeks ago and now all of a sudden he's out of favor. Why? Because uh there's
there seems to be some uh friction between the US and Israel. not not fundamentally but in terms of you know how this is situation's being managed.
So if you think about that and then you look at this magical incident with the Apache helicopter to me it looks very
suspicious. So that's the way I'm looking at it. So but but the point I'm making is the fundamental point is Iran
has pulled a blinder. Okay. This this is equal to the blinder they pulled by
hitting the Gulf Arab states um initially when this when the 3 months ago when these the hostilities began
because that pulled the the region uh into the conflict. It made them co- belligerent. It created all kinds of pressure and friction politically
between the Gulf allies and the US and Israel and also globalized the conflict
when energy was throttled and then the closure of the straight of Hormoose was the sort of final act uh in that move.
So that changed that allowed Iran to punch way above its weight geopolitically. This latest exchange or
the drawing of the red line with Lebanon allows Iran to punch above its weight in the region, but not really punching
above its weight. I mean, it kind of established as them as a bonafide superpower uh in the region. So higher
than a mid-tier uh power and just on the cusp of being a global superpower if you consider the uh the the resource and the
economic uh uh ramifications of the Persian Gulf as it as it is in the global economy. So that's a major thing.
And the other thing is the US and Israel have tried so hard to compartmentalize all these different u conflicts like
Gaza separate from Lebanon and separate from Iran and they're and Yemen they're dealing with themsel. They want to do that. They need to do that and Iran's
saying no no no this isn't how it's going. We're now putting the source of our the hostilities against us and the
Leban Lebanon and the Palestinians is from the same source. It's Israel. So, we're you're part of the negotiations
10 minutesnow. They're part of the any ceasefire agreement is going to be allencompassing.
And so, what and and the the important thing here, Danny, is this uh a mid-tier power could never draw a red line on a
moral basis. They can't. Only a superpower can. So, Iran is attempting a a bold move. This isn't out of character
for them in terms of their statements, uh, their constitution, what the value set of the Islamic Republic. They've always championed the Palestinian cause,
okay? But now it's in practice and that is, uh, to me extraordinary. So, uh, so
we'll we'll see if they're able to maintain this upper hand as it were militarily and diplomat. When I say
diplomatically, I'm not talking about real diplomacy here. And in in that sense, the statements from the Iranian
uh foreign minister and and Galibbah about now they are pursuing their their military aims concurrently with their
political aims. So they've taken the they they've clicked into clausowitzian mode basically that the the the military
activity is an extension of politics by their means. So again, this is a powerful geop only a powerful
geopolitical actor could take these positions. Only a normative power in the
international system. So they're really distinguishing themselves from a lot of other countries, either stooges and lap
dogs of the US or rogue states that act outside of the international system and norms like the US and Israel. So you
know Iran's firmly in that China Russia camp now geopolitically and hence they
will be recognized by other powers and this is what I'll say too Danny if they
stick to their guns and don't fold on on these these hard principles they've set and don't don't back off or or you know
give any concessions to the US or Israel the European countries will begin to recognize Iran as not not the problem.
They'll they'll then blame Israel for everything, Lebanon, Middle East, and the war, the war in the Persian Gulf.
So, and the US of course is going to be blamed anyway because they started this uh with Israel. But but more and more
this this reticence to blame Israel and to you know cuz if you look at for instance just look at the UN they they
tried to Germany, France and these uh quizzling governments in Europe in
Brussels tried to push a a new sanctions package against Iran through the UN security council today and uh the
permanent representative for the Russian Federation Nenzia basically and and China basically said no you're not going to do that that there's has no basis in law is forget it. It's not happening.
And so so that's how uh maniacal and and how subservient the
Europeans are to the US that they would pull a move like that while Israel is carrying out genocide on three different fronts.
Gaza, West Bank, and South Lebanon. I mean, who are these people? And on the back end, they're trying to ramp up a war with Russia and militarize the
continent. I mean, it's just insane. So, some of them are going to peel off, Danny.
Um, if Iran sticks to its guns and Italy and Spain is a good example, they've opened diplomatic relations with
Tran. So, so we'll see. We'll see how how because if Europe can't stay together on this, then that's big
problems for the US, big problems for Israel, and big problems for Britain and
in Germany and France as well. They have been very staunch supporters of these war crimes uh that Israel and the US are carrying out.
Yeah, I think that's a a great uh master class there on the huge implications of this escalation. Uh and in many ways
Europe will be indeed forced to uh get closer to Iran and they flirted with that over the years uh in large part
because of how energy dependent they are and uh their their obsession with uh destroying themselves over Russia uh and
destroying their relationship with Russia definitely has huge consequences.
So, uh, one thing I wanted to play you though, Patrick, uh, you know, as we head into potentially
a another round of strikes, and I'm going to get to all that Donald Trump and, uh, the US administration is saying, is there's a mood
that's, uh, I think dampening the, uh, uh, support for this kind of pretext
that you outlined there around the Apache helicopter. I'm going to play you a Fox News report on this. And I think now over as time goes on, you know, Ron
is saying 70% of all their targets were hit, which is a large number. The they at least fired 21 if not more missiles
than that at these targets. That means F-35s are likely destroyed. And we've seen that there's proof of this now from
prior uh missile strikes by Iran that Iran generally they tell you know like it or not you don't have to like Iran
but they they generally tell the truth and then satellite imagery eventually confirms it. But here's Fox News talking about this Apache helicopter and and and
the narrative is becoming well Iran is still hitting us back and that is almost now becoming a reason to
escalate war even further. believe it or not, which seems counterintuitive, but but here is what Fox News had to say,
obviously, but if if their military is destroyed, how are they continuing to hit us? I mean, an Apache helicopter
what cost about $46 million. Uh, not to speak of the potential injury or loss of life.
Yeah, Iran feels emboldened. They're hitting us because they've used the ceasefire to rebuild their armed forces and to deploy their armed forces in a way that they can use them to hit us.
And this is the real problem here. Um, when when the United States engages in diplomacy, we're most effective when we negotiate from a position of strength
with a credible threat of military force. And what the Iranians have seen over the past couple of months is, as you said, patience, which they
misinterpret as weakness. So when when Sencom says we're going to hit you in a proportional way, I worry that that sends the wrong message. That doesn't
send a message that we're going to dominate you and destroy you. It says, "Well, we'll engage in onesies and twzies and tit fortat." That's not going to restore deterrence. That's not going
to restore the escalation dominance we need to bring this war to a successful conclusion.
We have uh Nathan Sales, by the way, I know you're familiar with him, Patrick.
I mean, he's literally a salesman for the military sales. Yeah, great name.
He works for the Atlantic Council. I don't know what he's ambassador at. I don't know what that even means, but he
is. But that narrative, I think, is so much where the US regime is at right now with Iran. Um, and it does demonstrate
that they are very concerned uh about how Iran has essentially by saying they need escalation dominance, they're
admitting that Iran has escalation dominance. And look, if people don't have to believe this latest round of strikes, hit F-35 hangers or, you know,
hit their targets. They can believe Sentcom, but the the proof is in the pudding. The US has sustained almost 4 billion in losses in aircraft alone
since this war began. Uh uh this is just a massive number and I think Iran can
certainly hit uh stationed F-35. So it only gets worse from here. Iran is saying they will hit energy
infrastructure if the US goes for uh its oil and gas infrastructure. So your thoughts though on that comment by
Nathan Sales before we get to the uh uh Trump preparations for further war I I if if that's who's in the ear of the
White House and the Atlantic Council do play a a big role uh in war hawkery in Washington. I mean that's where they
kept Mike Pompeo fed and watered uh while he was uh going around Fox canvasing for a vice presidential role
in 2024 and it just fell flat. But it's it's it's a place where people like that, Warhawks, Israeli operatives can
get paid and sort of keep their career moving along uh while they wait for, you know, Trump to come into office or
whatever. Um so, but when he said, which is just this shows you that these people are delusional, and if they're
delusional and they're advising the White House, then you you really need to entertain the possibility that the White House is delusional as well from a
military point of view. and he said that this ceasefire has allowed Iran to rebuild its military or its armed forces.
Can you rebuild a military in 4 weeks? I mean, what planet is this person on?
They're supposed to be an expert, but this is what passes for pundantry um in the United States. They get paid a lot of money, by the way, for this great
bold advice that they're uh dealing out here on national TV. Um, no. Iran's military wasn't wiped out to begin with.
That's the sort of, you know, intelligent basic common sense assessment. But that goes against the propaganda line of the White House.
We've wiped out their military. We've wiped out their navy, wiped out their PL. Frankly, they don't have any missiles left and there's no leaders either. The country is a mess. It's
falling apart. So, Trump has had this tired old stick. He's been pushing. He's still pushing it. yesterday said the exact same thing. I mean, this leth
lethargy of the president with his sort of Dean Martin celebrity roast style takes on the war uh is just beyond a
joke at this point. Um the reality is this, the US has depleted its military.
The US has depleted its armaments, its ammunition, its missile defense, and so has Israel. The US has had to steal its
own stocks from the Pacific front and move it over and rob uh rob Ukraine to sort of bolster Israel and itself
and move it from other theaters because they it's going to take the US years to restock. That's the reality. The reality
is the US have lo lost more fixedwing aircraft. If you add up all of the lost fixedwing aircraft, we're talking about
planes and drones um and so forth. You add that up uh and Awax planes. Add that
up with Iran and also with Yemen because you have to you have to consider this is all part of the same conflict. Um by my
count upwards of 80 80 fixed wing aircraft. Um and by the end of the week, Danny, it might be 90. Who
knows? With the amount of MQ uh uh Reaper drones that are falling from the sky as we speak. Those aren't cheap, by
the way. They're they're more they're the the price of them. They might be the two the same price as two Airbuses. That's what those those aircraft cost.
So that's the in the postVietnam era.
That's that's the most that to give you an example of how devastating that is.
In the first Gulf War in 1991 and the Iraq war in 2003 and 10 years of
that fighting, the US lost 75 fixed wing aircraft. 75 during that entire 12-year
stretch uh in the two different wars with with Iraq and and not as advanced aircraft, by the way. So this is a
disaster. Oh, and by the way, 17 bases rendered inoperable or not in use, not
able to stage any military uh operations from. 17 bases and facilities in the
region, including Iraqi Kurdistan, by the way, which is getting pounded by the Iranians. Oh, all of our covert bases
there. Oh, we didn't know about those, did we? But Iran knows about them. And the Israeli bases. So from a US military
point of view, postVietnam, this is the worst defeat strategically for America in the last 50 years. That's the fact.
The numbers don't lie. Pete Hagsth is the biggest failure as a defense secretary or a war secretary. Um beyond a failure, it's uh it's it's a disaster.
It's a disaster how these people are still in their jobs, how the president is still in office at this point. It's
uh it's that that in itself is quite a miracle. Um and it kind of says a lot about where the US is politically that
this situation is allowed to stand and you know the country is practically defenseless on a certain level and the the economy is a disaster.
So I mean 4.2% 2% inflation uh CPI uh in the month of a uh what was
that the month of May uh up% the real figure will be triple that which is I mean and and Trump loves it
he loves it but continue yeah they're doing great uh yeah let's devalue the dollar and that'll be cheaper to pay down all that that 40 trillion in uh in the national debt
right just devalue the dollar right that's what Scott Bessett and all them were probably telling Trump a year ago So, it's a on every single front, it's a
defeat. Every single front, this is a massive defeat. And they're still carrying on like they got escalation dominance. And the Trump is still
touting this uh blockade. This this is blockade. And I'm telling you, the Iranians regard this not as a blockade.
They're regarding it as a nuisance. It's a nuisance.
and and the all the US is doing is creating cases bell eye situations uh where you know their their Apache
helicopters or planes or whatever that or drones will get shot down and it gives them an excuse to to escalate. But I don't really believe Danny that they
can they can sustain any kind of protracted exchange with Iran. They can't. Not to mention Iran's retaliation
is going to compound the problems for the US and Israel. It's really hard to see, you know, where this is going.
Well, Patrick, uh I think the conclusion from everything you just said, the only way to go is to do it anyway, is to
strike. I mean, that's that is the the mindset of uh the US regime, of the Trump administration. Of course, it's Israeli handlers, backers, uh partners,
what what have you. Uh that is that's that's the direction, but uh as you said, it's it's it only gets worse from
here. It doesn't get better. And we've heard before all this started up again that the United States and Israel were
planning at most two weeks more of strikes straight, that they can't sustain anything more than that. So whatever happens there those limitations
are very real and they are going to arise in the field of battle and then of course in the economic field of battle.
But here is what Donald Trump is saying today uh because there there are going to be more strikes. It seems it seems
like uh maybe right after we jump off of here B-52s will be uh attempting to hit Iran or hitting Iran. Uh he said on
Truth Social this morning that Iran's military is a complete and total mess.
Much of it like their navy and air force doesn't exist anymore. They have been completely defeated. It's all talk and no action. The bully of the Middle East
is dead, says Trump. They've taken too long to negotiate a deal that would have been great for them. Now they will have to pay the price. And he was asked to
clarify these comments today by the media as he was it looks like signing some executive order. uh uh in his Oval
Office chair. Here is Donald Trump's answer to that question.
We get to a deal and I want to make sure I quote you correctly. You said that now they will have to pay the price. What did you mean by that specifically? Well, we're going to be attacking them.
Attacking them very hard.
Yeah. Well, we are based on the helicopter. I guess we have the right to do that. You know, they shot
very incredible actually an incredible machine. And uh at first they didn't do it. Then they admitted they did. So
So it was an incredible machine and now we already have air defenses being activated uh in the city of Comb uh as
uh B2 bombers are making their way according to Mint Press heading toward the region. There's the flight radar. uh
they could be within uh minutes to hours in the Gulf region ready to launch toward uh or stand off uh uh you know
around Iranian airspace. So uh Patrick, this is the situation. Do it anyway. All the I mean they're obviously not
listening to you. They're not they're not watching this program. Uh not that we want to advise them on war anyway. They need to stop their war criminality.
Uh that's the whole point of this. But your your thoughts on this uh continuation regardless of the consequences.
Well what one thing I'll say is um when when the action is happening over there okay in Iran uh watch what Israel does.
Watch what Israel does. Israel also needed this this distraction so they can get back to work um uh massacring
Palestinians uh people in South Lebanon. And that I I think that's the Israeli gambit. That's
and they've always this this follows their pattern pattern behavior. Um it's always like that. So they've always
looked uh forward to and benefited from uh some other conflict or global focus and media focus on uh and and there will
be if there's retaliations and responses of missiles hitting to Israel, they'll continue to try to milk the sympathy
card globally on that. um when in fact uh Israel clearly violated well they violated the ceasefire with uh Hezbollah
15,000 times. Okay. And it's only until recently that Hezbollah uh responded.
And and then now they're they're they're calling this u you you know what's interesting about Israel, the the
Northern Command, what they call the home front, the home front command. They just announced in
the northern territories in the Galilee that they're going to open the schools.
They want the children to go back to school today. Yeah. And and we'll make sure they're near the bomb shelters.
So, what how do you read that? As host hostilities reach all-time high again, that's not the sort of announcement
you'd want to make. Unless you're willing to what? use your children as human shields or worse sacrifice your children for
uh some kind of uh sympathy benefit if you can tout those images across the global media of you know dead Israeli
children somehow. I mean why on earth would you announce such a thing? But it shows you what you're dealing with here.
And then Netanyahu goes on TV today and says Hezbollah have a plans to send thousands of terrorists over the border to invade the Galilee.
Thousands of crazy Hezbollah terrorists running over the hills. That's what the prime minister of Israel said today at the press conference.
So it they're they're increasingly unhinged um because Israel itself has created a
massive security dilemma for themselves um as well and and and the US like the US has. So
that means Iran is being they're being very effective in what they're doing being extremely effective. um they've
managed to uh create a dynamic of pressure between the US and Israel,
between Western countries and the US and Israel and also between Lebanon and the US and Israel because if you look if you
if you look at the president Joseph Ayun the Lebanese president who's uh Christian that's how their government is
divided into confessional sectarian president prime minister and speaker of the parliament which is Shiite the prime
minister's Sunni Nu Salam and Joseph Aun is the president. So he came out swinging in in the CNN interview a
couple of days ago and basically just told off Hezbollah and blamed Hezbollah and Iran for everything that's gone wrong in Lebanon. Not not a word of
condemnation against Israel. Um he's uh wanting to have good relations with Israel. we will, you know, and and so
the backlash from that and also just the backlash from within Lebanon and I think globally as well from his statements. He
came off looking like an absolute stoogge of Washington, Saudi Arabia and Tel Aviv and and also promoting
sectarian division in Lebanon. You know, really himself doing a lot to push Lebanon towards a civil war. I mean doing the bidding of Tom Barack
basically because that's what the US and Israel want to see uh and Morgan Ortangis and all these other who's
another Atlantic Council operative um trying to push for a violent civil war in Lebanon by ordering the Lebanese army and Joseph Aun to disarm Hezbollah.
Well, that's recipe for civil war basically, but it's not going to happen.
It's not realistic. But it's creating a lot of tension in the country. two days later now Joseph Ayun uh after the
exchanges that have ensued he's now pivoting he's now saying no no no Israel can't have total security uh war can't
be the answer Israel so what that says Daniel is that's
pressure from just Iran's general strategy and behavior has created more additional pressure that was a staunch
US puppet who's now veering off the reservation.
Why? Because of Iran. It's not because of Hezbollah. Hezbollah has been consistent the whole time. They're they're they're a given. They're
resisting Israeli aggression, occupation. They're they're standing up for the people of Gaza. But Iran's
changed the tact of everything by by by doing what they've done. And that's a game that that's a gamecher. A lot of
geopolitical analysts and pundits who come on podcasts like to talk about military things like
everything's going to be settled on the battlefield with tactics. It's not not that's not true. It's important but
politics also matters because politics can change the course of of the whole game just like politics and political
outcomes is what changed what created the is a good example Ukraine there's a lot of political maneuvering that got it
to the point of civil war that uh led to this massive standoff between NATO and now and Russia with Ukraine as a proxy
34 minutespolitics brought you to that point and the to diffuse it could also be political itical as well. Could be the
collapse of a political actor involved like a Netanyahu regime, like a Trump regime, um could create a situation
where uh it could change the course of of events even temporarily. It might be enough of an impass. So that and and the
economics and the economics cuz ultimately these conflicts are going to be uh decided through economic outcomes
as much or more than they are military outcomes. Um, and so in that on all of those different fronts, Iran has wielded
an incredible uh leverage inc incredible leverage for a country their size for
being really on their back heels against the US for for most of this.

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Part 2 of 2

I mean,
they they're not in the league of the United States in terms of military power and the capabilities and um and they've
suffered a great deal as a result of this. However, they have a lot of geography and a lot of other things in their favor and
they're they're they're absolutely maximizing everything including their diplomatic strategies as well. dealing with a country like the US doesn't have
any any real there's no diplomatic real diplomatic component to anything Washington does this administration
they're anti- diplomacy they don't know what a ceasefire is when someone says do you think there's going to be a ceasefire and I'm I'm saying first of
all does anybody in the white house understand what that means do do they know what a ceasefire means because I
don't hear that I just hear oh a deal we're going to get a deal there's going to be a deal. Oh, they want a deal. We want a deal. There's a deal around the corner. What is a deal? How do you
define a deal? A deal is not a ceasefire. A deal is not a treaty. It's not. And and so this is like Trump is
the fascist right-wing equivalent of pole pot. Basically, he's rolled in and
said everything that happened before I'm here doesn't count. It's the be It's year zero. Year zero. It's going to be a big beautiful year zero. So beautiful.
So beautiful. And and so he doesn't believe that any of the international relations scholarship or diplom diplomatic
uh uh precedent. None none of it matters. He's got his own way of doing things like the Trump organization's
going to do this. And all his supporters are saying, "Isn't he great? He's so unpredictable." That's what's great about Donald. That's what I love. Donald
Jr. That's what I My father My father that's why my father is so great. Nobody knows what he's going to do. Neither does Trump.
So this is this is a dis. It's a disaster. People need to realize that it
is a total unmitigated disaster for the United States. and because they're so incompetent and so arrogant and they got
people like Sebastian Gorka who is like a a a retread off Newsmax or something.
People like that in the White House, you know, just absolute grifters, right-wing talk radio grifters and
people like this Steven Miller. Uh these are the people advising the president.
They're just delusional hacks and and it's a disaster. It's a disaster militarily.
Unprecedented disaster for the US militarily. And that's why they're struggling to to with the escalation ladder because they have very limited
options in terms of escalation because they've blown it. They lost everything. They've got nothing in the Persian Gulf.
Nothing. and uh they won't be able to rely on their navy to project geopolitical power anymore,
geostrategic dominance in in the Persian Gulf. Forget it. It's it's finished. The US, it's so pathetic where the US is.
They're having to beg the Israelis to use a civilian airport, the only civilian international airport in Israel, Bengurian airport, to house all
of the US air-to-air refueling tankers and C130s.
And and so much so that they don't have room on the tarmac for passenger airlines. Do they have to cancel hundreds of flights in and out of Tel Aviv? That's just pathetic.
But that's all the US is left with. I mean, do people realize how bad this is? for America.
It politically it's a disaster domestically for Trump. He's got a noose around his neck running into the midterms. It's only getting tighter.
That's why there's a lot of in indecisiveness, panic. You see him visibly upset. He's throwing tantrums,
you know, just throwing girl girly tantrums during interviews with the media. That's it. I've had enough. I'm walking out. Right.
He's getting kicked around by women uh interviewers and he can't handle it.
He's just What do you What do you mean? I said the no more wars. Patrick, what do you mean? I didn't I I never said that. I said no.
No. I said Iran is very dangerous. It's just ridiculous.
It It's not even He's not This isn't a serious president. He's He's winging it.
He's making it up as he goes along. They don't really know what they're doing.
They don't have any strategy other than we need to support Israel. That's our that's our national strategy. I I could reissue the national security. Uh I'll do the next uh I'll do the next one.
I'll save you guys a lot of money. I'll I'll do the next one for November for 2026. And it's that we need to support
our best friend and ally, Israel. So onepage report. I'll mail that in. Done.
Done. You don't need working groups because that's the that's the extent of the US vision. and strategy. You know,
the the entire Danny, if you step back, you look at the look at the Middle East, look at everything from Diego Garcia
right up to Insulick air base to to uh Cyprus to to to Europe to Germany to
Germany. These bombers that are moving into position to bomb Iran, where where are they coming from? They're coming from Germany and the UK. So that's
that's the European US military footprint. the a and everything in the Persian Gulf and everything in Israel,
all of the aid, all of the support, all of that. It's to do one thing and it has been proven since October 7th. It's to
provide protection and to insulate Israel so that it can act with impunity in the region. That is the res dat of
the United States government and its military. That is the totality of the US strategy to to allow Israel to act with impunity in the region. That's it.
That's it. Where is the benefit besides the military-industrial companies?
Where's the where's the actual benefit for the United States traditionally in terms of national interests? No. But he's extracting benefit by short uh
shorting oil and running running the S&P 500. They're they're extracting their So that's the national interest is Trump in
his inner circle profiting off all these stupid tweets that he puts out every on his uh his own website, not
official State Department issued positions or whatever. It's a this is a joke. It's not a serious government in
Washington. And they've they've run the economy into the ground. They've run they're running the global economy into the ground. They're running the United
States into the ground economically, politically, and militarily.
Um, it's it's it's breathtaking, quite frankly. You know, I would I would I would be more consiliatory, Danny, if
the US had cut their losses this month and realized it's a good time to pull the plug. It's a good time to cut the losses. Let's do some real diplomacy.
shore up your your party ahead of the midterms and cross your fingers and hope that you don't get trounced by the Dems
in the House and the Senate and that Trump's not going to be on the impeachment impaled on the the uh the Iron Maiden of impeachment for the next two years because that's what's coming.
That's what's coming. Uh but but but that's not going to save the rest of the world. That's the problem. you know, we've we've baked in this disaster
economically and um honestly, it's it's it's really to see him waffling around. It's so pathetic.
This old dotard, you know, just has a right. He has a right, Patrick. He has they the US has a
right to bomb Iran because of some downed helicopter that was flying inside of likely or trying to fly inside of
Iranian airspace if not flying very low going toward with no dead with no dead pilots or maybe there are dead pilots and
privately he's pissed off but publicly they can't say that the US have lost any airmen I mean it's very suspicious that a helicopter yeah helicopter goes it's hit
by a drone catches on fire goes into the water, but it's all in one piece and everyone is fine. I mean, it's hypothetically, Danny. It to me, there's
as much of a chance with this White House and the amount of lying that they've done and been caught lying.
Uh the Esvahan raid is a perfect example. That was his Jimmy Carter moment, right? The disaster. All the special forces, who knows how many died uh in that or what the real losses were.
But with this president, that copter could have had a malfunction and crashed and lost two pilots. Maybe they recovered the bodies or whatever, maybe
not. Who knows? But they would lie about it and say it was shot down and then say that the pilots were still alive and not
issue any names. That that's how that's exactly that's how bad this government is.
They're capable of doing anything like this and then using it as a pretext for escalation. That's what you're dealing with. These are criminals that Trump is
running it like a like a gangster administration. Doesn't know what he's doing half the time. He thinks it's a street fight, you know. So, I mean, I
know that might sound extreme, but I don't put anything past these people at this point. No. No. They're incredibly desperate.
And uh you know I'm sure there are some who you know it's always funny to to see the uh the more enlightened elements or
or they pretend to be of the elite uh who surround maybe pretend to oppose Trump or maybe are actually uh right there with him. They don't say anything.
They don't oppose anything. And I think some of them do believe which is hilarious and you've talked about this point too about some of these goals.
They do believe that if if they can empower Israel to the maximum degree,
then they can disrupt all of the possibilities for a China and a Russia
and Iran to build and integrate and to uh connect the region further. So,
Israel then becomes uh a a so-called ally, a so-called partner. Some people call it a proxy but it becomes one with
leverage with incredible leverage because you have just anointed it one of the most important uh geopolitical goals that you have. Uh so even the they don't
say anything and they they came because there are those who who believe this nonsense they believe that could be true but uh and so they just go along with it
anyway. And then you had, you said Trump every other day is posting. He did it again today, posting uh to manipulate
the markets, manipulate the oil markets, the S&P 500, Wall Street. Look at this.
This is what he said today. Literally right after he said he's going to attack Iran. It's such a shocker that nobody should be shocked by this, but it it is truly uh uh almost parody at this point.
He comes out with this uh announcement that the uh the United States Navy, the
military has executed a secret mission to support oil tankers and other commercial ships through the straight of Hormuz and announced that this effort
has resulted in more than 100 million barrels of oil making its way through the straight. More than 200 commercial
ships have safely passed traveled through the straight. It's wildly successful effort because the USA controls the straight of Hermuz, not
Iran. Their military is defeated. Their economy is lost. It's over for Iran.
Thanks for your attention to this matter. It's almost uh coincidental I guess right Patrick that somehow this
wildly successful operation which has absolutely yeah secret
secret but now uh public has uh totally just flooded the market with oil just as
he announces announces he's about to bomb Iran.
That's pretty that's pretty uh convenient. Oh, let's just take a look at all the uh call options and put options uh right across the board in
Wall Street and and it's just it's a joke. It's ridiculous. You control you control the straight of Hormuse. Great.
So, let's call it a day. How about that? No, but you don't. That's the problem.
And so, we can't call you can't call it a day. This the they're not serious. The these people are not serious. So there
the the US cannot there's no way around there's there's no way out. The United States can as a power a superpower
cannot enforce norms because they themselves have violated all the norms.
They've brought the situation to this point by violating all international law and norms. So they they can't there's no
universe in which the US can come out as the good guy in this. They can't declare
victory against. That's why he keeps he's such a coward. This guy and the people around him are so cowardous.
That's why they keep tweeting out and repeating, "We've devastated their their navy. We've devastated their air force.
There's nothing left. It's a great victory." How many times do you have to announce this?
Hundred times. That means you you don't you haven't achieved a great victory and you haven't you haven't wiped out all these things and wiped out all their
missiles. You haven't you haven't if you did you wouldn't have to repeat it like every day for like the last
month or two whatever two months. It's this is ridiculous. So they that means the US doesn't actually have as a
superpower they don't really have any real leverage and they can't bring other allies onto bandwagon. They tried
remember with the uh the international the British the French they're sending frigots to support our great operation. What happened to that?
Yeah I thought they were supposed to have their whole big Yeah. They were supposed to send all of that armada. There was Yeah. the coalition of the willing armada was supposed to show up,
reopen that thing. And uh where where are they? What happened to them?
I was hoping the French and Macron was and and the British, you know, they're sending their at the coffee shop.
They only have six operable ships in their whole navy, you know. So yeah, I guess maybe they could spare a couple.
So I mean that's where they're at. So uh so the the the mech the mechanism the
other thing is that Saudi Arabia it looks like they allowed the US to use their airspace to uh refuel in Israel.
Is that I don't know if you saw those reports Israeli F-35 refueling over Saudi airspace with I would guess US airto-air refueling tanker.
That means Saudi Arabia goes back on the target bank list. But what does that mean? Where did that tanker come from?
Did it come from Saudi Arabia or did it come from Bengurian? Because it if it came from Bengurian then Bengorian's on the target list. And
what's Israel going to do if that happens? That's a bonafide crisis for the state of Israel because that is the
escape hatch for Israelis who have passports from every other country in the world, which they all do, and they
all reserve the right to basically scadaddle if things get too hot. But not if Benurian airport is completely flattened because that could happen.
It's how it's it's incredible risk. The the I mean if you're advising these people, you know, you saying do you
really know what you're doing here? Is this wise to to re reignite the escalation back and forth on this?
What's your fallback position? I suppose Israel has so much strategic depth. You know, they've got RAF Equatory in
Cyprus. Maybe I don't know if they they move quick. Maybe they can build an air base on Sassin Island in Albania. If
Kushner can move quick, another fallback position for Israel.
They have so much strategic depth. I mean, aren't they the size of uh New Jersey? It's massive.
I'm sure they can manage all this fivefront war. It's great.
Yeah. Um, you know, and and the Yemenes and the Yemenes announced no more trade through the Red Sea
for them and soon not for anyone. Uh, but yeah.
Where's Pete Hagsth? Are you going to go spank the uh the answer Allah the Houthies now? How you with what? Remember how that went?
Well, you know, they they had a US carrier strike group in the Red Sea. And what did they do? I think it was the uh USS Gerald Ford, if I'm not mistaken.
They turned around and left. Didn't they dump a few F-18s on the way?
That that was in the first that was the first round, but uh so you know, go ahead. Are you
going to go pound the uh the Yemenes now? Okay. Well, that's okay. Yeah. I mean, goodbye, Babo Menddev. Yeah. Uh
yeah. So, so but that's that's interesting, Danny, because the axis of resistance and and Iran's allies
or can coordinate in northern Israel and just in terms of timing and this strategic move by Yemen.
This is the thing that they didn't do before. There wasn't really clear coordination, but now Hezbollah and Iran
are are are in sync regarding northern Israel and southern Lebanon. So
this is this is a g this is hugely difficult for Israel to manage and the US by extension add the Yemen factor in
there it's even worse. The only thing that I think is a is is terrible about all this is that Iraq has allowed its
airspace to be used by Israel. And I think they've just got Iraq over a barrel. um literally over a
barrel, millions of barrels with their banks in New York that hold all the dollars of Iraq Iraq's sovereign sovereign wealth fund. That's a problem.
Yeah. Yeah. Well, there's some I guess resistance to be had. There's a resistance movement there, but uh certainly the government uh has not
followed suit. Uh Patrick, before I let you go, I know it's about time for you to go and I'll close up here in the last five minutes, but I just want to show as
I said before, what did we say ear what did I say earlier? That satellite imagery will eventually confirm that
Iran is likely telling far more truth than the United States Sentcom ever could. And now the US F-35 hangers in
Jordan are shown by satellite imagery to have been uh hit and it looks like hit very hard. Satellite images is not uh
not always the easiest thing to look at, but uh that looks like a a big crater where uh the hangers were. So, I don't
know how many F-35s were were in that thing, but or or or stationed in that thing, but uh it doesn't look good. And
then Ramat David Air Base, uh it's been confirmed by satellite imagery, Israeli Ramad Air Base, that uh it was also hit
uh uh very hard. Uh it's this one's a little harder to see, but this is being confirmed uh by screen grab from Cernison Sentinel 2 satellite imagery.
So, uh, that's not a good idea. Oops.
Sorry. Not a good idea. Patrick, you said, "Is it a good idea to keep going?" The Kingdom of Jordan, uh, an Israeli air defense battery with a country
attached to it. That's what Jordan effectively is.
It's a it's a missile defense base for for Israel with with that happens to have a country and and people living there. Um, well, there there you are.
There you are. Iran's increasing. It's targeting. It's it has plenty of targets, has great intelligence, and
it's just going it's death by a thousand cuts for for Israel and the US. That would be interesting to know what the
extent of the F-35 fleet damage would be because that's that's significant.
And and also uh you know where where is Israel keeping its F-35 fleet by the way these days? I think they've got it spread out.
Yeah. Well, Patrick, I know I got to let you go. I'll close up the last here because I know you have another engagement. I appreciate you coming on.
Uh everyone after the show uh I will let everyone know that your Substack and uh 21st Century Wire is there for people to
subscribe and to follow and support. Uh Patrick, I'll talk to you again soon. Thank you, Danny. All the best.
Take care. I'll see you again soon. All right. All right, everybody. Uh we got a few minutes left here and I'll give some announcements and but first some uh
final uh remarks here. Okay. So uh uh I just want to talk to you all about
reasons to hope. I'm working on a piece right now why there is reason to hope in this current geopolitical situation that
we find ourselves the world situation more broadly. And I will say this about uh that why there's reason for hope
because I I have some realist elements to me some uh dialectical materialist elements I take from everything to give
you a full analysis on how to approach the world situation. And right now I believe there are actually a lot of
reasons to hope including what we've been covering here daily which is this Iran war. While Israel of course is committing genocide on many different
fronts, while the United States cannot seem to stop itself because it is built and rests upon the foundations of
endless war and because that endless war is fueling Wall Street, it's fueling the military-industrial complex. It's fueling the uh lust for full spectrum
dominance uh that is consistently and constantly and rapidly waning around the world. uh uh despite all of this uh Iran
has made such a leap in its world position, its global position that now
people are calling it a superpower. And I don't even know if that's the most accurate way of describing what Iran is right now because uh at this point what
we can call Iran I believe is a victorious nation. a nation that has uh won the war
against US and Israeli aggression and imperialism and is now uh uh set on a
path to build the foundations for that to spread further because uh there is no victory on one front that does not
reverberate across all of them. So Iran has defeated the sanctions. It has been able to maintain a level of economic
development that has kept its military production going. It's kept its uh civilians living at the very least a
life that uh they can tolerate, that they can meet their needs around. And now they have been able to build up such
advances that they can go toe-to-toe with the United States. Essentially, I believe that this could turn into uh a a
war where the United States and Israel don't give up, but Iran just doesn't fall. And that creates big problems because nothing is neutral. Nothing
stands still. Eventually the limitations that we talk about here for the US empire for Israel will catch up to them
and force them to either make concessions stop their behavior or which I don't believe they can do that or they
face the massive consequences they face domestic unrest because of economic crisis they face uh the uh uh ongoing
and rapid acceleration of a more integrated world amongst the global south and uh they will not be able to
stop it because they wasted it all on a war that they were never going to win anyway. uh they'll try to destroy the
global economy as some are arguing and even that won't get what they want because then you have a China you have a Russia you have even bigger economic
engines in the world especially China ready and willing to be the focal point of this movement toward global
integration sovereignty multi-olarity and truthfully the most important thing self-determination
and this is happening across the board it's Not even just in these areas we are seeing for example uh all across the
world uh from the DPRK to Zimbabwe uh the United States its attempt to destroy
any alternative to its rule because that is really the point the point for the empire for the ruling classes for those
on Wall Street you know sipping their champagne and watching people suffer at home and abroad their whole agenda is to
get rid of any alternative So those countries can just become subsumed into
their wheel of endless exploitation of people's resources, of their labor, and
of course uh of their entire existence so long as it serves their fat uh profits. So I'm just going to show you a
few examples of this. The Wall Street Journal wrote that smartphones, EVs, and brick oven pizza, North Korea is the world's unlikely economic growth story.
The title of the article was the world's most surprising economic success story is North Korea and it's heavily
paywalled and actually a lot of for the capacity to get through pay walls has been diminished of late. But one
critical statistic that they bring up in this is that the DPRK, North Korea, a
country that is under painstaking economic sanctions by the United States under so-called UN mandate,
despite the impact of that, they have been able to buy build more new homes than Los Angeles or Chicago combined in
the DPRK that uh this person said people are witnessing electric vehicles booms, uh, technology booms, uh, in terms of
cell phone technology, being able to scan QR codes, being able to have ride share apps that they're building all this on their own with China's help,
their military arsenal is being uh, uh, enhanced by Russia's help. And the DPRK is becoming more and more a modern
society, despite being forced into what the Western mainstream media calls the hermit kingdom, right? That it's so isolated. Well, the United States and
2 minutesthe West have tried to force isolation of the DPRK, but it is not working. And this is the DPRK, a country that has nukes, and so the US is afraid to try to
destroy it and go back to a kinetic war with it uh because of the consequences of that. But uh nonetheless
uh we are seeing the DPRK be able to survive despite this onslaught and thrive in a moment where the United
States and Israel and all of the rest of their hangers on are trying to destroy the planet. Zimbabwe, this is the
economist. It has a bizarre economic boom. they they love the west to try to demonize and denigrate uh uh uh you know
any country that they don't like who is doing that is doing something very well.
In this article they uh talk about how a gold rush has combined with a power grab because the state is heavily involved in
the economy there by force because of again sanctions. uh the gold rush has caused a huge boom for them because you
know gold has become very important with the dollar and the oil markets and all of this uh becoming more and more
fragile because of US um because of US aggression. Now their economy has grown
7% in the last year plus uh we're talking about now years of positive economic growth despite sanctions. So
countries and people Zimbabwe now has a really horrific history. Used to be Rhodesia. It was colonized. It was impoverished. When it gained liberation
from the British, what happened? Well, the British uh uh scoffed and was were angry with the United States around land
reform. They didn't like that people in Zimbabwe, the Zanopiaf, the leading party, they didn't like that they tried to redistribute land from those who had
taken it in prior generations. And that peacefully, mind you, but that led to a
huge sanctions regime and the demonization of that government and attempt to overthrow it through essentially economic bankruptcy didn't
work. And now we're seeing that this country has been able to fight back in a in a continent that still remains very mired and terrorized by US and Western
financial uh uh debt. So again, there's reason to hope China's rise is not being
mitigated. It's not being diminished by anything the US does at the moment. Uh Russia, there's no sign in sight that
Russia is in trouble for having to fight now what looks like a long war against NATO backed and essentially NATO itself.
Uh that it's able to continue to build onward toward a modern military uh uh power as well as just a modern power in
its own right. leading the charge to dilarization. Iran we talked about and now the rest of the world is going to
have to uh adjust to this reality and I think there's reason to hope for that because uh what we're seeing with the
United States the desperation the US having to Trump literally manipulate the markets just to feain stability as
people suffer. Remember the war is at home too. It's a war on the working class. It's a war on oppressed people.
There are people becoming more and more impoverished as we speak. Debt levels are rising. The trillions of dollars in debt that people face, car with with
with car loans, with mortgages, with credit cards, on and on and on. All of this is going to come to a head. uh the
fact that at any moment the US uh could uh uh you know utilize its police forces to put down uh unrest to put down even
peaceful protests to uh conduct even harsher surveillance. The World Cup is coming to the United States and it's
going to be an absolute show because of the security regime here is
no different from the security regime, national security regime that's imposed on people abroad. Uh so uh we are living
in a a boiling over moment of this cauldron in the United States that will
only serve to bolster what is the reality in front of us which is a world that's rapidly changing in a world that
uh does have hope embedded in it by the real resistance of actual people.
millions upon billions now of people who are actively resisting charting a different course forward. So uh uh this
is through all the destruction through all the dismemberment the genocide the horrors that the collective west led by
the United States conducts all around the world uh uh uh Israel of course throw that throw it in there throw that thing in there uh uh there's reasons of
course to be very discouraged by that but there's also reasons to see that uh the arc of history has had that for
centuries uh when it comes to empires but it's also had resistance and successful resistance lead to some very
positive outcomes. So, just remember all that people while you're watching the Knicks tonight, if you're going to watch that uh as as the US bombs Iran and Iran
retaliates, I'll be back tomorrow. Okay, tomorrow I will be back at uh uh 10 uh it's not 10 a.m. Eastern, 12:00 p.m.
Eastern time with Larry Johnson and Colonel Lawrence Wilkerson. We will go over all of the overnight debacle that
occurs as usually what happens is a Trump administration uh conducts the US military conducts its strikes overnight
and then Iran retaliates because of the time zone differences and whatnot. So with all that said everyone I want to thank everyone who gave super chats. I
want I want to know what an attack helicopter was doing in the straight. It can't be assumed it was going to attack.
It can be assumed it was going to attack. Thanks Danny and Patrick. Thank you, Sky Raider. And then Jolly Lollipop One says, "The little hats whack, Charlie Kirk." Uh, yes, Charlie Kirk.
And then Jolly Lollipop One says, "You could just select some junkie of a homeless encampment and he or she would be a better president than Donald Trump." You know, I would say that, you
know, for me, I I I've, you know, in my uh lifetime have worked and met a lot of
people who have to sleep outside, who are, you know, homeless because of economic reasons, addiction, mental
health, all of them put together. And I will say that when they have their uh uh stability to them, when they are able to
you know actually function in a way that uh you know they and uh the you know the rest of us or at least the rest of us
with any humanity to us are wanting to see. Yeah, I would say that they would make far better. Actually, it's that
kind of struggle that can bring you a lot of clarity and a lot of empathy towards those who also struggle, which
is what we need in the United States because we don't have a lot of it and we def because we don't have any of it in Washington and in the halls of power. uh
uh ant anti-mpathy, the narcissism, the uh mentality of just
dominating dominance and destruction and uh anything goes for the maximization of
profit and this is what's kill this is what's killing literally a lot of the planet um you know and so this is what
the resistance that I just outlined very briefly and uh Honestly, probably not even fair to outline it everywhere.
That's what that's that's what is being fought against and that's what I hope all of you can in your own way become a
10 minutespart of. Uh and and I believe that's what this channel is really all about.
Everybody hit the like button before you go. Uh in the video description, all the places support my channel, Patreon, Subsec, and much more. As I said before,
I'll be back uh 12:00 p. p.m. Eastern time with Larry Johnson and Colonel Lawrence Wilkerson to update on all of the developments that happened
overnight. And of course, Patrick was our guest today and he was phenomenal as usual. So, do support him on Substack uh
YouTube. Do check out his work and uh he will be back again uh probably very soon as we continue to follow these
developments. But for free, hit the like button. That boosts the show. I want to thank all of those who gave a super chat. Again, I want to thank all the
members who were in this chat, all the Patreon members, anybody who's in the chat, but I want to thank everyone who viewed today and of course the great
moderators who make this channel a place that people want to be. So, without further ado, everyone, see you uh
tomorrow, 12:00 p.m. Eastern time. Until next time.