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From: Jeffrey Epstein [[email protected]]
Sent: 7/1/2011 11:18:25 AM
To: Peggy Siegal
should you point out to Ariana Huff, that the same type of person, same as strauss Kahn i s Andrews accuser,
,long criminal record. total liar. Ariana should champion the dangers of false allegations. send a reporter or
reporters to investigate,., the palace would love it, the girl in the photo , was nothing more than a telephone
answerer„ she was never 15, according to her version she worked for trump , first at that age, at MAra lago. ITs
ridiculous. but the press like strauss kahn is afraid to question women.
***********************************************************
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confidential, may be attorney-client privileged, may
constitute inside information, and is intended only for
the use of the addressee. It is the property of
Jeffrey Epstein
Unauthorized use, disclosure or copying of this
communication or any part thereof is strictly prohibited
and may be unlawful. If you have received this
communication in error, please notify us immediately by
return e-mail or by e-mail to [email protected], and
destroy this communication and all copies thereof,
including all attachments. copyright -all rights reserved
HOUSE OVERSIGHT 031912

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24 August, 2011

Article 1. The Daily Beast
Obama’s True Claim to Fame
Michael Tomasky
Article 2. Stratfor
Israeli-Arab Crisis Approaching
George Friedman
Article 3. The Financial Times
Why Assad need not fear Gaddafi’s fate
Ed Husain
Article 4. The Christian Science Monitor
Libya endgame: Lessons for Syria's protesters
Bilal Y. Saab
Article 5. Foreign Policy
Assad's Chemical Romance
Leonard Spector
Article 6. Washington Post
10 years after 9/11, al-Qaeda is down but not out
David Ignatius
Article 7. Hurriyet
Why Golda Meir was right
Burak Bekdil



Article 1.

The Daily Beast

Obama’s True Claim to Fame

Michael Tomasky



August 23, 2011 -- Barack Obama hasn’t been much of a domestic-policy president from nearly anyone’s point of view. And it’s a little hard to picture how he might ever be seen as such—that is to say, even if he’s reelected, he’ll probably have a Republican House or Senate (or both) that will thwart him at every turn, so the best he’ll be able to say is that he presided over a slow and very difficult economic recovery, which presumably will finally happen by January 2017. But foreign policy could be a completely different story. Here one can see how he might become not just a good but a great foreign-policy president. Yes, of course, let’s stipulate: the war isn’t actually, you know, over. And even after it is, Libya could descend into chaos or extremism or both (although it is heartening to read that the National Transitional Council, the recognized new governing body, apparently has detailed governance plans in place). So could Egypt, and Tunisia, and so on and so on. Lots of things could, can, and undoubtedly will go wrong. Let’s also stipulate that Obama did not drape himself only in glory on Libya. The administration’s statement in June that the conflict wasn’t under the purview of the War Powers Act because bombing didn’t constitute “hostilities” was ridiculous. And many critics reasonably felt back in March that Obama was a little slow to pull the trigger on the intervention (I didn’t share that view).

All that said, the administration has already handled a lot of these changes well (and in the face of absolutely constant know-it-all criticism). One of the best things an American administration can do when big changes are afoot somewhere in the world is stay out of the way and not act as if we can will an outcome just because we’re America. We have a group in this country that likes to will outcomes, and their track record demonstrates that that doesn’t work so well (unless you think, apropos Iraq, that eight years and more than 100,000 lives later defines “well”). Obama has been more in the mold of George H.W. Bush and his secretary of state, Jim Baker, when the Eastern bloc was throwing off Moscow’s shackles. Offer encouragement and stability, give a few speeches about freedom, but otherwise let them do their own work. Obama took a lot of stick for not being more forceful on Egypt in February, but he was right to be cautious—there were lots of stakeholders involved, and sorry, but the president of the United States just can’t say every sweet thing romantics would like him to say. He then, as noted, took heat for moving too slowly on Libya, but here again he was correct. The nature of the Libyan regime is not a direct national-security issue, so there absolutely had to be a specific trigger to justify acting. That trigger was Gaddafi’s threatened assault on Benghazi. That was completely the right thing to do. It was as textbook a fulfillment of “R2P,” or “responsibility to protect,” as one could imagine. The subsequent bombing campaign took longer than advertised, but it has apparently done the job, quickly and with far smaller loss of life (including zero U.S. deaths) than if we’d followed John McCain and Lindsey Graham’s advice and gone in with ground troops. One of the best things an American administration can do when big changes are afoot somewhere in the world is stay out of the way and not act as if we can will an outcome just because we’re America. Next comes Syria. Conservatives are pushing Obama to take stronger steps. Maybe he should. I argued back in the spring, before Obama imposed sanctions on Assad, that he needed to be more forceful. But now he has imposed those sanctions and said Assad should step down. Doing much more seems dubious. Bashar al-Assad will go. It’s a matter of when. Better to let it play out. If a true R2P situation arises, then Obama will have to make some decisions. But it’s far better to let the Syrians do this themselves, if they can. We cannot prevent every casualty. That’s starting to sound like a doctrine to me. Call it the doctrine of no doctrine: using our power and influence but doing so prudently and multilaterally, with the crucial recognition that Egypt is different from Libya is different from Syria is different from someplace else. According to the foreign-policy establishment, if you want to have a self-respecting big-D doctrine, you’re not supposed to recognize differences. The doctrine must guide all cases. But that is exactly the kind of thinking that has led—always—to tragedy. The Truman Doctrine was never meant to be applied to Vietnam. The Bush Doctrine was applied to Iraq based on a series of lies told to the American people. And so on. If the Obama Doctrine is nothing like those, so much the better. This does not yet greatness make. These dramatic changes have to work out for the better, and here the United States has a huge role to play. With respect to Libya, for example, we have control of about $37 billion in assets we can dole out to the transitional council. And yes, we probably are interested in its oil. But that doesn’t have to mean stealing it. All the Western countries that backed the rebels have to play a constructive and non- (forgive me for such a dated word) imperialist role in helping the country build its future. So there’s work to be done. But it’s hardly impossible to envision an Obama administration in a few years’ time that has drawn down Afghanistan and Iraq, helped foster reforms and maybe even the growth of a couple of democracies around the Middle East, and restored the standing of a country that Bush had laid such staggering waste. And killed Osama bin Laden. If this is weak America-hating, count me in.



Newsweek/Daily Beast special correspondent Michael Tomasky is also editor of Democracy: A Journal of Ideas.


Article 2.

Stratfor

Israeli-Arab Crisis Approaching

George Friedman



August 22, 2011 -- In September, the U.N. General Assembly will vote on whether to recognize Palestine as an independent and sovereign state with full rights in the United Nations. In many ways, this would appear to be a reasonable and logical step. Whatever the Palestinians once were, they are clearly a nation in the simplest and most important sense - namely, they think of themselves as a nation. Nations are created by historical circumstances, and those circumstances have given rise to a Palestinian nation. Under the principle of the United Nations and the theory of the right to national self-determination, which is the moral foundation of the modern theory of nationalism, a nation has a right to a state, and that state has a place in the family of nations. In this sense, the U.N. vote will be unexceptional.

However, when the United Nations votes on Palestinian statehood, it will intersect with other realities and other historical processes. First, it is one thing to declare a Palestinian state; it is quite another thing to create one. The Palestinians are deeply divided between two views of what the Palestinian nation ought to be, a division not easily overcome. Second, this vote will come at a time when two of Israel's neighbors are coping with their own internal issues. Syria is in chaos, with an extended and significant resistance against the regime having emerged. Meanwhile, Egypt is struggling with internal tension over the fall of President Hosni Mubarak and the future of the military junta that replaced him. Add to this the U.S. withdrawal from Iraq and the potential rise of Iranian power, and the potential recognition of a Palestinian state - while perfectly logical in an abstract sense - becomes an event that can force a regional crisis in the midst of ongoing regional crises. It thus is a vote that could have significant consequences.

The Palestinian Divide

Let's begin with the issue not of the right of a nation to have a state but of the nature of a Palestinian state under current circumstances. The Palestinians are split into two major factions. The first, Fatah, dominates the West Bank. Fatah derives its ideology from the older, secular Pan-Arab movement. Historically, Fatah saw the Palestinians as a state within the Arab nation. The second, Hamas, dominates Gaza. Unlike Fatah, it sees the Palestinians as forming part of a broader Islamist uprising, one in which Hamas is the dominant Islamist force of the Palestinian people.

The Pan-Arab rising is moribund. Where it once threatened the existence of Muslim states, like the Arab monarchies, it is now itself threatened. Mubarak, Syrian President Bashar al Assad and Libyan leader Moammar Gadhafi all represented the old Pan-Arab vision. A much better way to understand the "Arab Spring" is that it represented the decay of such regimes that were vibrant when they came to power in the late 1960s and early 1970s but have fallen into ideological meaninglessness. Fatah is part of this grouping, and while it still speaks for Palestinian nationalism as a secular movement, beyond that it is isolated from broader trends in the region. It is both at odds with rising religiosity and simultaneously mistrusted by the monarchies it tried to overthrow. Yet it controls the Palestinian proto-state, the Palestinian National Authority, and thus will be claiming a U.N. vote on Palestinian statehood. Hamas, on the other hand, is very much representative of current trends in the Islamic world and holds significant popular support, yet it is not clear that it holds a majority position in the Palestinian nation.

All nations have ideological divisions, but the Palestinians are divided over the fundamental question of the Palestinian nation's identity. Fatah sees itself as part of a secular Arab world that is on the defensive. Hamas envisions the Palestinian nation as an Islamic state forming in the context of a region-wide Islamist rising. Neither is in a position to speak authoritatively for the Palestinian people, and the things that divide them cut to the heart of the nation. As important, each has a different view of its future relations with Israel. Fatah has accepted, in practice, the idea of Israel's permanence as a state and the need of the Palestinians to accommodate themselves to the reality. Hamas has rejected it.

The U.N. decision raises the stakes in this debate within the Palestinian nation that could lead to intense conflict. As vicious as the battle between Hamas and Fatah has been, an uneasy truce has existed over recent years. Now, there could emerge an internationally legitimized state, and control of that state will matter more than ever before. Whoever controls the state defines what the Palestinians are, and it becomes increasingly difficult to suspend the argument for a temporary truce. Rather than settling anything, or putting Israel on the defensive, the vote will compel a Palestinian crisis.

Fatah has an advantage in any vote on Palestinian statehood: It enjoys far more international support than Hamas does. Europeans and Americans see it as friendly to their interests and less hostile to Israel. The Saudis and others may distrust Fatah from past conflicts, but in the end they fear radical Islamists and Iran and so require American support at a time when the Americans have tired of playing in what some Americans call the "sandbox." However reluctantly, while aiding Hamas, the Saudis are more comfortable with Fatah. And of course, the embattled Arabist regimes, whatever tactical shifts there may have been, spring from the same soil as Fatah. While Fatah is the preferred Palestinian partner for many, Hamas can also use that reality to portray Fatah as colluding with Israel against the Palestinian people during a confrontation.

For its part, Hamas has the support of Islamists in the region, including Shiite Iranians, but that is an explosive mix to base a strategy on. Hamas must break its isolation if it is to counter the tired but real power of Fatah. Symbolic flotillas from Turkey are comforting, but Hamas needs an end to Egyptian hostility to Hamas more than anything.

Egypt's Role and Fatah on the Defensive

Egypt is the power that geographically isolates Hamas through its treaty with Israel and with its still-functional blockade on Gaza. More than anyone, Hamas needs genuine regime change in Egypt. The new regime it needs is not a liberal democracy but one in which Islamist forces supportive of Hamas, namely the Muslim Brotherhood, come to power.

At the moment, that is not likely. Egypt's military has retained a remarkable degree of control, its opposition groups are divided between secular and religious elements, and the religious elements are further divided among themselves - as well as penetrated by an Egyptian security apparatus that has made war on them for years. As it stands, Egypt is not likely to evolve in a direction favorable to Hamas. Therefore, Hamas needs to redefine the political situation in Egypt to convert a powerful enemy into a powerful friend.

Though it is not easy for a small movement to redefine a large nation, in this case, it could perhaps happen. There is a broad sense of unhappiness in Egypt over Egypt's treaty with Israel, an issue that comes to the fore when Israel and the Palestinians are fighting. As in other Arab countries, passions surge in Egypt when the Palestinians are fighting the Israelis.

Under Mubarak, these passions were readily contained in Egypt. Now the Egyptian regime unquestionably is vulnerable, and pro-Palestinian feelings cut across most, if not all, opposition groups. It is a singular, unifying force that might suffice to break the military's power, or at least to force the military to shift its Israeli policy.

Hamas in conflict with Israel as the United Nations votes for a Palestinian state also places Fatah on the political defensive among the Palestinians. Fatah cooperation with Israel while Gaza is at war would undermine Fatah, possibly pushing Fatah to align with Hamas. Having the U.N. vote take place while Gaza is at war, a vote possibly accompanied by General Assembly condemnation of Israel, could redefine the region.

Last week's attack on the Eilat road should be understood in this context. Some are hypothesizing that new Islamist groups forming in the Sinai or Palestinian groups in Gaza operating outside Hamas' control carried out the attack. But while such organizations might formally be separate from Hamas, I find it difficult to believe that Hamas, with an excellent intelligence service inside Gaza and among the Islamist groups in the Sinai, would not at least have known these groups' broad intentions and would not have been in a position to stop them. Just as Fatah created Black September in the 1970s, a group that appeared separate from Fatah but was in fact covertly part of it, the strategy of creating new organizations to take the blame for conflicts is an old tactic both for the Palestinians and throughout the world.

Hamas' ideal attack would offer it plausible deniability - allowing it to argue it did not even know an attack was imminent, much less carry it out - and trigger an Israeli attack on Gaza. Such a scenario casts Israel as the aggressor and Hamas as the victim, permitting Hamas to frame the war to maximum effect in Egypt and among the Palestinians, as well as in the wider Islamic world and in Europe.

Regional Implications and Israel's Dilemma

The matter goes beyond Hamas. The Syrian regime is currently fighting for its life against its majority Sunni population. It has survived thus far, but it needs to redefine the conflict. The Iranians and Hezbollah are among those most concerned with the fall of the Syrian regime. Syria has been Iran's one significant ally, one strategically positioned to enhance Iranian influence in the Levant. Its fall would be a strategic setback for Iran at a time when Tehran is looking to enhance its position with the U.S. withdrawal from Iraq. Iran, which sees the uprising as engineered by its enemies - the United States, Saudi Arabia and Turkey - understandably wants al Assad to survive.

Meanwhile, the fall of Syria would leave Hezbollah - which is highly dependent on the current Syrian regime and is in large part an extension of Syrian policy in Lebanon - wholly dependent on Iran. And Iran without its Syrian ally is very far away from Hezbollah. Like Tehran, Hezbollah thus also wants al Assad to survive. Hezbollah joining Hamas in a confrontation with Israel would take the focus off the al Assad regime and portray his opponents as undermining resistance to Israel. Joining a war with Israel also would make it easier for Hezbollah to weather the fall of al Assad should his opponents prevail. It would help Hezbollah create a moral foundation for itself independent of Syria. Hezbollah's ability to force a draw with Israel in 2006 constituted a victory for the radical Islamist group that increased its credibility dramatically.

The 2006 military confrontation was also a victory for Damascus, as it showed the Islamic world that Syria was the only nation-state supporting effective resistance to Israel. It also showed Israel and the United States that Syria alone could control Hezbollah and that forcing Syria out of Lebanon was a strategic error on the part of Israel and the United States.

Faced with this dynamic, it will be difficult for Fatah to maintain its relationship with Israel. Indeed, Fatah could be forced to initiate an intifada, something it would greatly prefer to avoid, as this would undermine what economic development the West Bank has experienced.

Israel therefore conceivably could face conflict in Gaza, a conflict along the Lebanese border and a rising in the West Bank, something it clearly knows. In a rare move, Israel announced plans to call up reserves in September. Though preannouncements of such things are not common, Israel wants to signal resolution.

Israel has two strategies in the face of the potential storm. One is a devastating attack on Gaza followed by rotating forces to the north to deal with Hezbollah and intense suppression of an intifada. Dealing with Gaza fast and hard is the key if the intention is to abort the evolution I laid out. But the problem here is that the three-front scenario I laid out is simply a possibility; there is no certainty here. If Israel initiates conflict in Gaza and fails, it risks making a possibility into a certainty - and Israel has not had many stunning victories for several decades. It could also create a crisis for Egypt's military rulers, not something the Israelis want.

Israel also simply could absorb the attacks from Hamas to make Israel appear the victim. But seeking sympathy is not likely to work given how Palestinians have managed to shape global opinion. Moreover, we would expect Hamas to repeat its attacks to the point that Israel no longer could decline combat.

War thus benefits Hamas (even if Hamas maintains plausible deniability by having others commit the attacks), a war Hezbollah has good reason to enter at such a stage and that Fatah does not want but could be forced into. Such a war could shift the Egyptian dynamic significantly to Hamas' advantage, while Iran would certainly want al-Assad to be able to say to Syrians that a war with Israel is no time for a civil war in Syria. Israel would thus find itself fighting three battles simultaneously. The only way to do that is to be intensely aggressive, making moderation strategically difficult.

Israel responded modestly compared to the past after the Eilat incident, mounting only limited attacks on Gaza against mostly members of the Palestinian Resistance Committees, an umbrella group known to have links with Hamas. Nevertheless, Hamas has made clear that its de facto truce with Israel was no longer assured. The issue now is what Hamas is prepared to do and whether Hamas supporters, Saudi Arabia in particular, can force them to control anti-Israeli activities in the region. The Saudis want al Assad to fall, and they do not want a radical regime in Egypt. Above all, they do not want Iran's hand strengthened. But it is never clear how much influence the Saudis or Egyptians have over Hamas. For Hamas, this is emerging as the perfect moment, and it is hard to believe that even the Saudis can restrain them. As for the Israelis, what will happen depends on what others decide - which is the fundamental strategic problem that Israel has.



Dr. Friedman is the Chief Executive Officer and founder of STRATFOR. Dr. Friedman is the author of The New York Times bestseller “The Next Decade: Where We’ve Been…and Where We’re Going,”
Article 3.

The Financial Times

Why Assad need not fear Gaddafi’s fate

Ed Husain



August 23, 2011 -- The dramatic scenes in Tripoli are already being seized upon by those keen to depose other despotic regimes. Taken alongside the unstable situation in Syria, there is now a risk of a dangerous moment of western triumphalism. This must be resisted, especially given that the odds of overthrowing dictator Bashar al-Assad are so small.

After months of holding his nerve, US president Barack Obama last week succumbed to calls from commentators and Syrian opposition leaders, and demanded Mr Assad’s removal. The decision was a mistake. Earlier in the week, Hillary Clinton, secretary of state, noted that, “if the US called for Mr Assad’s head, then what?”. And, indeed, then what? I lived in Syria for two years and still visit regularly, so I know only too well that the US is viewed with deep animosity. Officials told me many times, and with straight faces, that America is at war with Arabs and Muslims – a view also ingrained among the wider population, particularly after the Iraq war.

Calls for regime change will thus help Syria, as Mr Assad defies the west with ease. As elsewhere in the Middle East, defying Washington is a cause of strength and popularity, as Hamas, Hezbollah and Iran show. Every passing day will now be seen as a humiliation for Mr Obama, while the fragmented and shambolic Syrian opposition will be more credibly dubbed “American stooges” or “Zionist agents”. For a population that is vehemently anti-American and anti-Israel, such labels are powerful and destructive.

The regime has been barbaric in responding to the brave people on the streets, but we must be careful about accepting the narrative that the whole of Syria is demanding change. The largest cities of Aleppo and Damascus remain relatively calm, while opinion in western capitals is led by reports generated via opposition movements, often using social media of questionable reliability. The army has committed many atrocities but hundreds of its members appear to have been killed, too. In the absence of international media, it is debatable whether the protesters are altogether peaceful.

Already, calls for military intervention are being made by Syrian opposition activists in meetings at the White House and US state department. Yet such movements have led us astray before, as when politicians such as Ahmed Chalabi misled the US about realities in Iraq. In truth, Mr Assad’s regime is much less likely to fall than that of Muammer Gaddafi: there have been no high-profile political or military defections, while Mr Assad remains relatively popular among senior military commanders, Syrian mosque clerics, the middle classes and business leaders.

This brings us back to the “then what” question. The numbers being killed now will wither in comparison with a possible future civil war, if an increasingly sectarian Syria splinters between the ruling Alawites, the elite and urban Christians, the majority Sunnis, the Kurds, Druze and others. There is no civil society to engineer a peaceful transition, while Syria could plausibly become another Lebanon, acting as a proxy battleground for regional powers.

This risk partly explains why Syria’s ally Turkey has exerted such effort to rein in the slaughter, and why Saudi Arabia, Russia and China have not joined America’s lead. They all want to give Mr Assad more time – because they recognise the thin chance of getting rid of him, and because they fear the violence that would follow if he did fall.

Almost 90 per cent of Syria’s crude oil exports go to European countries. Almost $3bn of its annual trade is conducted with Turkey. Saudi Arabia is a regional power with vested interests in the country, and Russia and Syria enjoy historical relations, as well as arms deals. It is these countries that now must be on the front lines of reform, with the US largely working behind the scenes.

For the west, the most powerful and poignant moment in recent months came when US ambassador Robert Ford travelled to Hama, scene of protests, to show solidarity and monitor the regime’s actions. His quiet move warmed usually hostile Sunni communities elsewhere in the Middle East to America, while putting fear into the heart of the tyrant himself. Such innovative, soft power strategies will do more to help Syrian democracy than loud statements from the White House.

The most powerful pressure on Mr Assad so far, however, has been from Al Jazeera’s Arabic coverage, which encouraged Syrians to take control of their own destiny. This is surely right, for any long-term change must come from within. Sadly, in the short term and in a highly volatile region, at present Mr Assad remains the least worst option.



The writer is a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, and author of The Islamist




Article 4.

The Christian Science Monitor

Libya endgame: Lessons for Syria's protesters

Bilal Y. Saab


August 23, 2011 -- As the Libyan opposition's fight appears to be nearing a triumphant close, with rebels having taken over Muammar Qaddafi’s compound in Tripoli, the showdown between largely peaceful protesters and regime forces in Syria rages on and shows no signs of abating. But Mr. Qaddafi’s ouster could help turn the tide for the Syrian opposition – especially if it takes the lessons from Libya to heart.

One would assume that the escalating pressure on Qaddafi’s regime would have been enough to shake Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and push him to stop the bloodbath against his own people. Forget about it. With his speech on Sunday (when all signs pointed to Qaddafi’s imminent downfall) in which he rebuffed Western calls to resign, Mr. Assad is now more defiant than ever. His message is unambiguous: Extensive international pressure notwithstanding, he is not going down without a fight.

RELATED: Spots to watch in the battle for Tripoli

The popular uprisings in Libya and Syria (and elsewhere in the Middle East) have similar root causes – decades-old authoritarian politics, harsh political repression, denial of freedoms, and bad economics – but they have taken different paths, which may lead them to very different ends.

Commentators and analysts have been quick to state that Assad’s days are numbered. That may be true. Facing international isolation of unprecedented scale and a growing protest movement at home that is determined to depose him, the ruler of Syria is in deep trouble. It may be only a matter of time before Assad falls, but we simply do not know how long it will take and how it will unfold.

External intervention and support for anti-government forces is undoubtedly the most important issue that separates the Libyan case from the Syrian one. Slaughtered by Qaddafi’s regime, Libyan protesters did not hesitate to ask for Western military intervention, which they ultimately got in the form of a NATO aerial campaign. Let’s be honest and clear, without NATO’s air strikes, the no-fly zone, and the sanctions against Qaddafi, the civil war in Libya would have dragged on even longer, and rebel victory would have been extremely difficult if not impossible to achieve.

The majority of the protesters in Syria do not want Western military intervention. Their position is both courageous and rational, but it is not without costs and risks. With external military assistance (if the West sends arms or launches another NATO aerial campaign), they would be in a better position operationally to overthrow Assad, but their ability to govern their country in the future autonomously would be more limited (surely nothing is for free in international relations).

Without external military assistance, they are extremely vulnerable and at the mercy of Assad’s tanks and security forces, but if they pull his overthrow off, they will own their country’s future and put themselves in a position to better ward off future foreign meddling and interference. It is not an easy choice, but so far, the Syrian protesters have decided to go it alone, and one must understand and respect their remarkable position.

While the balance of forces currently tilts heavily in Assad’s favor, Qaddafi’s downfall might just be the necessary factor that will embolden the protesters and offer them a sizeable advantage. This is not naïve or farfetched. After all, it was the plight of Tunisian vendor Mohamed Bouazizi and the symbolism of his fate that sparked all the revolutions across the Middle East.

The images of the rebels in Libya liberating their country (as it seems they are close to doing) and chanting songs of freedom, like their Egyptian and Tunisian counterparts before them, will no doubt be another powerful inspiration and morale booster for the Syrian people.

Qaddafi’s departure will also make it possible for the international community to devote more attention and energy to Syria and come up with more creative and coordinated policies to assist the Syrian people, short of bombing Damascus or sending arms. That all eyes are currently on Assad is certainly bad news for the dictator.

Yet whatever the international community devises, the Syrian protest movement must do a better job organizing and convincing the world that it is more or less ready to take over once Assad falls. For that, the protesters need to create a truly united and inclusive political front (the National Council which the Syrian opposition formed today in Istanbul is a good first step, but it remains leaderless and still needs to come up with a tangible platform that goes beyond the demands for freedom and regime change).

Interviews with Arab intellectuals and ordinary citizens broadcast on satellite TV channels across the Arab world tell us that many Arabs believe that the rebels in Libya have made a mistake in asking for Western (“colonial”) military intervention. But the rebels' salvation is that they quickly came together and formed a transitional council, gaining world recognition and persuading major powers that the alternative to Qaddafi is indeed viable.

Right now, the West, and especially Syria’s neighbors, are concerned that Assad’s departure will lead to chaos and perhaps even sectarian, civil war that could spill over to other parts of the region.

Nobody and no amount of external assistance can help the Syrian protesters overcome their differences (as a Lebanese citizen, trust me on this one). But the sooner they speak with one voice, organize their ranks from within, and show the world that they are a mature and capable group able to turn Syria into a responsible democracy, the closer they will be to fulfilling their dream of toppling the Assad regime.

Their unity and organization are indeed more powerful than NATO’s bombs and more effective than the West’s sanctions. The lessons of Libya, Egypt, and Tunisia are clear: With unity comes historic opportunity.



Bilal Y. Saab is a visiting fellow at the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies at the Monterey Institute of International Studies.









Article 5.

Foreign Policy

Assad's Chemical Romance

Leonard Spector



AUGUST 23, 2011 -- The continued unrest in Syria, coupled with President Barack Obama's call for President Bashar al-Assad to leave power, has thrown the future of the country into flux. Among the most troubling uncertainties is the fate of Syria's chemical weapons arsenal, which, if not protected properly, could fall into the wrong hands, with catastrophic results. Syria is one of a handful of states that the U.S. government believes possess large stocks of chemical agents in militarized form -- that is, ready for use in artillery shells and bombs. The arsenal is thought to be massive, involving thousands of munitions and many tons of chemical agent, which range, according to CIA annual reports to Congress, from the blister gases of World War I -- such as mustard gas -- to advanced nerve agents such as sarin and possibly persistent nerve agents, such as VX gas.

In the hands of Assad -- and his father Hafez before him -- these weapons have been an ace-in-the-hole deterrent against Israel's nuclear capability. The Assad regime, however, has never openly brandished this capability: It did not employ chemical weapons in the 1982 Lebanon War against Israel, even after Israeli warplanes decimated the Syrian Air Force. Nor have they been deployed, or their use threatened, in attempting to bring Assad's current domestic antagonists to heel. And although Syria is accused of providing powerful missiles to Hezbollah, including some of a type that carried chemical warfare agents in the Soviet arsenal, Assad has not reportedly transferred lethal chemical capabilities to the Lebanon-based Shiite organization.

So despite their many faults and deplorable record on human rights, the Assads have treated their chemical arsenal with considerable care. But as the country potentially descends into chaos, will that hold true?

Let's start with the possibility of civil war. According to researchers at the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies, open sources indicate that there are at least four, and potentially five, chemical weapons production facilities in Syria. One or two are located near Damascus, the other three situated in Hama, Latakia, and al-Safira village, near the city of Aleppo. Hama is one of the hotbeds of the Syrian revolt, which Assad's tanks attacked in early August and where, more recently, fighting has severely damaged the city's hospitals. Latakia is another center of unrest; it was shelled by the Syrian Navy in mid-August. Aleppo, Syria's second-largest city has also seen significant demonstrations.

If anti-Assad insurgents take up arms, the chemical sites, as symbols of regime's authority, could become strategic targets. And, if mass defections occur from the Syrian army, there may be no one left to defend the sites against seizure. This could lead to disastrous outcomes -- including confiscation of the chemical weapons by a radical new national government, or sale of the weapons as war booty to organized non-state actors or criminal groups.

In such chaos, no one can predict who might control the weapons or where they might be taken. With these chemical weapons in the hands of those engaged in a possible civil war, the risks that they would be used would increase substantially. The problem would be worsened further if some possessors were not fully aware of the extent of the weapons' deadly effects.

And let's imagine that Assad is eventually removed: What leaders would gain control of these weapons after he departed? Saudi-backed Sunni groups? Iran-backed Shia organizations? Whoever they might be, it is unclear that the newcomers would follow the Assads' cautious-use doctrine and refusal to share chemical weapons with non-state groups, or that the new leaders would be able to maintain strict security measures at the chemical sites.

Meanwhile, it's possible that an existential threat will cause the Assad regime to abandon its previous policy of restraint regarding chemical weapons. It is not a huge leap from attacking civilians with tank fire, machine guns, and naval artillery to deploying poison gas, and the shock effect and sense of dread engendered by even limited use could quash a city-wide uprising within an hour.

The options available to the United States to minimize these risks are limited at best. Washington has certainly warned Assad against using the weapons domestically. But with Assad already at risk of indictment for crimes against humanity, and given his likely belief that the United States will not intervene militarily due to its commitments elsewhere -- including its politically unpopular and still opaque involvement in Libya -- U.S. warnings may have little deterrent effect.

A preemptive Israeli military strike to destroy the weapons does not appear technically feasible: Even if Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu were ready to change the status quo, Assad is believed to have stored bulk chemical agents and filled (or quickly filled) shells and bombs in underground bunkers at multiple sites throughout the country. Moreover, even if Israel used incendiary bombs in an attempt to incinerate the chemical agents, the risk of dispersing large quantities of poisonous liquids would remain, with the potential to cause large-scale casualties.

The Obama administration needs to start planning now to manage Assad's chemical weapons legacy. If a new government replaces Assad -- or even if different groups compete for international recognition -- a U.S.-led coalition, including Turkey and the leading Arab states, should demand as a condition of support that the weapons immediately be placed under control of international monitors from the Hague-based Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons and plans developed for their destruction. Hopefully, Syria's new leaders will have genuine legitimacy and will not need to prop up their credibility at home by clinging to these barbaric weapons.



Leonard Spector is executive director of the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies Washington, DC, office and formerly served as assistant deputy administrator for arms control and nonproliferation at the National Nuclear Security Administration.










Article 6.

Washington Post

10 years after 9/11, al-Qaeda is down but not out

David Ignatius



August 24 -- Government officials refer to it blandly as the “SSE,” or Sensitive Site Exploitation. That’s their oblique term for the extraordinary cache of evidence that was carried away from Osama bin Laden’s compound the night the al-Qaeda leader was killed.

With the anniversary of the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks a few weeks away, it’s possible to use this evidence to sketch a vivid portrait of al-Qaeda, drawing on material contained in more than 100 computer storage devices, including thumb drives, DVDs and CDs, and more than a dozen computers or hard drives — all collected during the May 2 raid.

U.S. officials say three strong themes emerge from their reading of the files, most of which were communications between bin Laden and his top deputy Atiyah Abd al-Rahman. Indeed, because the Libyan-born Atiyah (who’s known to analysts by his first name) was the boss’s key link with the outside, officials see him as more important than bin Laden’s nominal successor, Ayman al-Zawahiri.

Here are the highlights:

●Bin Laden retained until his death a passion to launch a significant attack against the United States, ideally linked to the 10th anniversary of 9/11. He and Atiyah communicated often about who might carry out such a strike, with Atiyah proposing names and bin Laden rejecting them. Bin Laden was still looking for a history-changing attack on big, economically important targets — one that would match, if not outdo, the impact of 9/11. Zawahiri, by contrast, favored an opportunistic strategy of smaller strikes.

●Bin Laden was a hands-on chief executive, with a role in operations planning and personnel decisions, rather than the detached senior leader that U.S. analysts had hypothesized. Zawahiri, whom the analysts had imagined as the day-to-day leader, was actually quite isolated — and remains so, despite a dozen communications this year. Zawahiri suffers from mistrust between his Egyptian faction of al-Qaeda and other operatives, such as Atiyah.

●Bin Laden was suffering badly from drone attacks on al-Qaeda’s base in the tribal areas of Pakistan. He called this the “intelligence war,” and said it was “the only weapon that’s hurting us.” His cadres complained that they couldn’t train in the tribal areas, couldn’t communicate, couldn’t travel easily and couldn’t draw new recruits to what amounted to a free-fire zone. Bin Laden discussed moving al-Qaeda’s base to another location, but he never took action.

Analysts did not find in the material any smoking gun to suggest Pakistani government complicity in bin Laden’s presence in Abbottabad. And it’s clear he was paranoid about being found and killed: He ordered his subordinates to restrict movements to help preserve what remained of al-Qaeda in Pakistan. Fear of being discovered was a subject of regular conversation between bin Laden, Atiyah, Zawahiri and others.

Bin Laden also worried that al-
Qaeda’s status among Muslims was dwindling, and that the West had at least partially succeeded in distancing al-Qaeda’s message from core Islamic values. Concerned about this eroding base, bin Laden counseled affiliates in North Africa and Yemen to hold back on their efforts to develop a local Islamic extremist state in favor of attacking the United States and its interests.

This fear that al-Qaeda’s extreme tactics were burning too hot and alienating Muslims was also the theme of a remarkable message that Atiyah sent in 2005 to Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, the murderous chief of al-Qaeda in Iraq. In this document, made public five years ago by the United States, Atiyah warned that fomenting Sunni-Shiite violence (which was Zarqawi’s trademark) was potentially ruinous.

The al-Qaeda that emerges from these documents is a badly battered and disoriented group. The June 3 death of Ilyas Kashmiri in a drone attack illustrates the organization’s continuing vulnerability. Kashmiri was a ruthless operator who planned the 2008 Mumbai attacks that killed 166 people and was plotting deadly attacks on Europe last winter that were stopped only because of aggressive counterterrorism work. (Security services from Europe and Turkey arrested about 20 of Kashmiri’s operatives before they could carry out the attacks.)

When top U.S. officials summarize their view of al-Qaeda now, in the run-up to the 9/11 anniversary, they describe an organization that is down but certainly not out. They don’t know of any specific plots targeting the United States, 10 years on. But they’re looking, pulsing every channel they know. They recognize that it’s what we still don’t know about al-Qaeda that’s most dangerous.

The Washington Post




Article 7.

Hurriyet

Why Golda Meir was right

Burak Bekdil



August 23, 2011 -- It has been more than two and a half years since Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan told to Israeli President Shimon Peres’s face, “You (Jews) know well how to kill.” Prime Minister Erdoğan has also declared more than a few times that the main obstacle to peace in this part of the world is Israel, once calling the Jewish state “a festering boil in the Middle East that spreads hate and enmity.” In this holy month of Ramadan full of blood on Muslim territories, let’s try to identify who are the ones who know well how to kill. As the Syrian death count clicks every day to come close to 2,000, the Turkish-Kurdish death count does not stop, already over 40,000 since 1984, both adding to the big pool of blood called the Middle East. Only during this Ramadan, the Kurdistan Workers’ Party, or PKK’s, death toll has reached 50 in this Muslim Kurds vs. Muslim Turks war. This excludes the PKK casualties in Turkey and in northern Iraq due to Turkish military retaliation since they are seldom accurately reported.

Let’s speak of facts.

Sudan is not in the conventional Middle East, so let’s ignore the genocide there. Let’s ignore, also, the West Pakistani massacres in East Pakistan (Bangladesh) totaling 1.25 million in 1971. Or 200,000 deaths in Algeria in war between Islamists and the government in 1991-2006. But a simple, strictly Middle East research will give you one million deaths in the all-Muslim Iran-Iraq war; 300,000 Muslim minorities killed by Saddam Hussein; 80,000 Iranians killed during the Islamic revolution; 25,000 deaths in 1970-71, the days of Black September, by the Jordanian government in its fight against the Palestinians; and 20,000 Islamists killed in 1982 by the elder al-Assad in Hama. The World Health Organization’s estimate of Osama bin Laden’s carnage in Iraq was already 150,000 a few years earlier.

In a 2007 research, Gunnar Heinsohn from the University of Bremen and Daniel Pipes, director of the Middle East Forum, found out that some 11 million Muslims have been violently killed since 1948, of which 35,000, (0.3 percent) died during the six years of Arab war against Israel, or one out of every 315 fatalities. In contrast, over 90 percent who perished were killed by fellow Muslims. According to Mssrs. Heinsohn and Pipes, the grisly inventory finds the total number of deaths in conflicts all over the world since 1950 numbering around 85 million. Of that, the Muslim Arab deaths in the Arab-Israeli conflict were at 46,000 including 11,000 during Israel’s war of independence. That makes 0.05 percent of all deaths in all conflicts, or 0.4 percent of all Arab deaths in the Arab-Israeli conflict.

In another calculation ignoring “small” massacres like the one that goes on in Syria and other deaths during the Arab Spring, only Saddam’s Iraq, Jordan, the elder al-Assad’s Syria, Iran-Iraq war, the bin Laden campaign in Iraq, the Iranian Islamic revolution and the Turkish-Kurdish conflict caused 1.65 million Muslim deaths by Muslims compared to less than 50,000 deaths in the Arab-Israeli conflict since 1950, including fatalities during and after Operation Cast Lead which came after the Heinsohn-Pipes study. For those who don’t have a calculator ready at their desks, allow me to tell: 50,000 is three percent of 1.65 million. Golda Meir, the fourth prime minister of Israel, or rather the “Mother of Israel,” had a perfectly realistic point when she said that peace in the Middle East would only be possible “when Arabs love their children more than they hate us.”



Burak Bekdil is an Ankara-based freelance journalist.

























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17 November, 2011

Article 1. NYT
U.S. Hones Warnings to Egypt as Military Stalls Transition
David D. Kirkpatrick and Steven Lee Myers
Article 2. NYT
Europe’s Contagion
Editorial
Article 3. New York Post
High stakes in Syria
Amir Taheri
Article 4. Guardian
Turkey has a key role in Syria
Simon Tisdall
Article 5. Foreign Policy
Barack Obama's Foreign Policy
November 16, 2011
Article 6. Project Syndicate
America in the Asian Century
Dominique Moisi



Article 1.

NYT

U.S. Hones Warnings to Egypt as Military Stalls Transition

David D. Kirkpatrick and Steven Lee Myers



November 16, 2011 -- CAIRO — Brazen attempts by Egypt’s interim military rulers to hold on to power long after elections have elicited a sharp reaction domestically and for the first time have prompted Washington to warn about the potential for new unrest.

After months of mixing gentle pressure with broad support for the ruling military council, the Obama administration has sharpened its tone, senior administration officials say, expressing concern that the failure to move to civilian control could undermine the defining revolt of the Arab Spring.

The shift in tone is part of a difficult balancing act for Washington, which is keen to preserve its ties to the military and its interests in the region, chiefly Egypt’s role in maintaining peace with Israel. But Washington also hopes to win favor with Egypt’s newly empowered political opposition while avoiding the appearance of endorsing the military’s stalled transition to democracy. All things considered, some here have suggested, the change in tone may be intended to placate Egyptian public opinion rather than actually press the military to give up power.

“I think they are working for their own interests, particularly regarding the slow transition of power,” said Shady el-Ghazaly Harb, a prominent liberal activist who was among the leaders of the Egyptian revolution. “The U.S. wants to guarantee that the coming government will be on good terms — I won’t say loyal, but friendly — and the support for SCAF is related to that.” SCAF is the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces, Egypt’s ruling military council.

Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton underscored the shift in a speech last week that her aides later said was a deliberate warning to the military council, which assumed power after President Hosni Mubarak’s ouster. The military had initially pledged to hand over control to civilians by September, but it now says that a presidential election will not occur before 2013. And last week it laid out a blueprint for the next constitution, giving the military special political powers and protection from civilian oversight into perpetuity.

“If, over time, the most powerful political force in Egypt remains a roomful of unelected officials, they will have planted the seeds for future unrest, and Egyptians will have missed a historic opportunity,” Mrs. Clinton warned.

“When unelected authorities say they want to be out of the business of governing,” the United States expects them “to lay out a clear road map” and “abide by it,” she added.

Given Washington’s long support for Mr. Mubarak, and Mrs. Clinton’s comment last month approving of the military’s extended timetable for electing a civilian president, there was suspicion over Washington’s intentions. The shift occurred at the same time as a broader effort by the Obama administration to counter anti-American sentiment and reach out to opposition leaders across the political spectrum.

The United States “wants to have the cake and eat it, too,” said Nabil Fahmy, a former Egyptian ambassador to Washington, arguing that the United States wants to promote democracy without dealing with the pressure it would put on American interests in the region.

The military’s attempts to protect its power and privileges indefinitely have created an awkward situation for Washington. The United States, through the Pentagon in particular, has long nurtured close ties with the Egyptian military, which still receives $1.3 billion in American aid each year. American officials hope that whatever government emerges will continue to support American policy, including maintaining ties with Israel and distance from Iran.

At the same time, the United States’ standing in public opinion in Egypt and around the region continues to suffer because of decades of support for undemocratic governments like the military-backed system that controlled Egypt under Mr. Mubarak. Remaining aloof from the debate over the military’s future role here risks reinforcing those criticisms at a time when democratic changes are giving public opinion new weight.

As part of its broader outreach, the Obama administration has also met with the Muslim Brotherhood, the Islamist group whose political party is poised to win a major role in the country’s new Parliament and remains the biggest political counterweight to the military council.

Jacob Walles, a deputy assistant secretary of state, met for the first time this week with the leaders of the Brotherhood’s newly formed Freedom and Justice Party at its new headquarters in Cairo. While American diplomats have had intermittent contacts for years with Brotherhood lawmakers in the Egyptian Parliament, officials here said Mr. Walles’s meeting appeared to underscore Mrs. Clinton’s pledges to cooperate with Islamist parties that respect democracy.

Others said it might instead have been a sign that Washington simply realized that the Brotherhood was certain to play a crucial role in Egypt’s future and was likely to win a large bloc of seats in the parliamentary elections that begin this month.

“They confirmed that they are keen to support the democratic process, and they will accept any results of the elections and deal with any government that respects human rights and the rights of women and minorities and the democratic process,” said Essam el-Erian, a veteran Brotherhood leader and the vice chairman of its new party, who met with Mr. Walles. “And we are keen and eager to say that we respect the democratic process and the rights of all people according to the Constitution and the law.”

Administration officials, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss private diplomatic exchanges, said they hoped that a combination of internal and external pressure on the council would persuade it to yield power and submit to civilian oversight. In addition to the public comments by Mrs. Clinton, other senior American officials have privately urged the council to revise its recent proposals to preserve power, the officials said.

The officials noted that since Mr. Mubarak’s ouster, the council’s leaders had repeatedly offered, then backed away from, some proposals only after street protests and public pressure, in a kind of prolonged back-and-forth that some noted reflected a true, if messy, democratic process taking root.

But administration officials and Egyptian activists note worrying signs. The military core of Mr. Mubarak’s government has “reasserted itself again,” a senior administration official said. “We don’t have great expectations that this is going to be the creation of a democratic system,” the official said, referring to the coming elections.

At best, the official added, the elections will be “a transition to a transition,” one that could leave the military as the de facto power in Egypt for years to come, as it was under Mr. Mubarak’s rule.

The military has said that it intends to hold ultimate political power even after the election of a Parliament in the coming months, and that it will play a role in drafting the constitution as well. It has refused to lift the Mubarak-era “emergency law” allowing arrests without trial, and it has sent as many as 12,000 civilians to military trials.

While the administration’s changes in tone risk upsetting a pivotal ally where anti-American sentiment — and, in some quarters, support for the military — runs high, they are also drawing rare praise from activists here who say they appreciate Washington’s help.

“I think that Secretary of State Mrs. Clinton delivered a clear-cut message to the SCAF, and I think they got that message: that the SCAF is not an elected body and must deliver the authority and turn over power,” said Emad Gad, an analyst at the government-financed Al Ahram research institute and now a leader of the Social Democratic Party.

Mr. Gad contended that over the long term such pressure could only benefit the American relationship with a democratic Egypt. “I think more than 50 percent of the Egyptians think the SCAF is trying to kill the Egyptian revolution,” he said.






Article 2.

NYT

Europe’s Contagion

Editorial



November 16, 2011 -- Two years of gross mismanagement of the euro-zone debt crisis have all too predictably produced a wider crisis of market confidence that now threatens the entire 17-nation euro zone. This week’s formation of new technocrat-led governments in Greece and Italy has not calmed fears. Practically every euro zone country is paying the price in higher interest costs and ebbing economic growth.

The only country that isn’t suffering — yet — is Germany, whose competitive export-driven economy feeds on foreign demand and an exchange rate held down by its neighbors’ troubles. But all European countries cannot be Germany and run net surpluses, especially if Berlin insists on policies that keep factories shuttered and workers unemployed.

And German leaders are wrong if they think their country will remain unscathed as its major trading partners and neighbors unravel.

Chancellor Angela Merkel of Germany has been talking a more pro-European line. But she is still insisting on growth-killing austerity as the price for European bailouts and still blocking the European Central Bank from printing more euros and acting as a lender of last resort.

Mrs. Merkel’s advisers insist that she is doing what the German people want. That is not leadership. She needs to challenge her voters’ simplistic stereotypes of southern European sloth and tell them the truth: The real threat to Germany isn’t inflation; it is an economic collapse across Europe. And Germany has a huge amount to lose from a fracturing of the European Union.

European stock and bond markets are already treating that as an ever-more-realistic possibility, shunning even moderate levels of risk and pushing interest rates to unsustainable levels. As far as they can see, Mrs. Merkel and her fellow euro-zone leaders haven’t come up with an adequate plan, sufficient political will or sufficient cash to halt the contagion. As far as we can see, they are right.

The political changes at the top of Greece and Italy are promising. Greece’s new prime minister, Lucas Papademos, and Mario Monti of Italy are internationally credible economists, committed to making painful but much needed reforms, including liberalizing labor markets, shrinking overgrown bureaucracies, shedding state properties and rooting out corruption.

Given their training, they surely understand that their economies are not now strong enough to absorb more austerity, including broad new taxes or further sweeping service cuts. Mr. Papademos and Mr. Monti should press their fellow European leaders for a new and better deal. Even with the best leadership, neither Greece nor Italy will be able, on their own, to restore their fiscal health and help slow the spreading financial contagion. That will require substantial and immediate help from their euro-zone partners, starting with Mrs. Merkel.

An all-out effort by the European Central Bank to buy bonds, lower interest rates and inject new liquidity into the markets may still calm the contagion if it begins in the next few days. The bank’s new president, Mario Draghi, may be willing to play this role, if Germany stops standing in the way.

Mrs. Merkel must make clear that she will support the central bank taking on this expanded role. And now that new, credible leaders are in office in Athens and Rome, she and other euro-zone leaders need to meet with them and negotiate more growth-friendly reform packages. There is very little time left to avoid financial catastrophe.


Article 3.

New York Post

High stakes in Syria

Amir Taheri



November 16, 2011 -- As Arab foreign ministers met in Rabat, Morocco, yesterday to discuss Syria, one question was on every mind: Is the country already in a civil war?

Some of the facts on the ground suggest so. With more than 350 killed so far, November has been the bloodiest month since the uprising against President Bashar al-Assad began last spring.

Defections from the army, which started as a trickle, now look like a torrent. In October, the number was around 800. The best total now available is about 17,000. The defectors have organized themselves as the Free Syrian Army and are creating credible command-and-control structures.

Since September, the FSA has carried out a number of symbolic attacks against the regime. And now the “shadow army,” as Syrians call it, seems to be planning more spectacular operations.

On Monday, the FSA claimed an attack on an army convoy near Deraa, the southwestern town where the revolution started. Official accounts reported at least 34 soldiers killed.

Yesterday, the FSA attacked the headquarters of the Air Force Intelligence Agency at Harasta near the capital Damascus. Since Hafez al-Assad, an air-force officer and Bashar’s father, seized power in a coup in 1970, the AIA has been the nerve center of the regime’s security system.

Also this week, reports surfaced of attacks by armed tribesmen on three military outposts near the Iraqi border.

Despite all that, it may be premature to speak of civil war in Syria.

In a civil war, a society is divided into armed camps that, initially at least, are roughly the same size. That’s not the case in Syria, where the uprising is backed by an overwhelming majority against a government that’s dominated by a small minority — the Ba’ath Party. To make matters worse, the Ba’ath is dominated by the Nusairi (Alawite) religious minority, a mere 5 percent of the population.

Thus, Syria’s is a nationwide revolution against a minority regime.

Almost all Syrians agree that the situation is untenable. Assad’s policy of rule by massacre has few supporters outside his clan. Judging by the revolution’s most popular slogan — “Assad Get Out!”— a majority may support demands for Assad to stand down, as suggested by Jordan’s King Abdullah.

Nevertheless, the Assad clan still controls enough military and financial assets to continue its rule-by-massacre strategy.

The result could be the disintegration of the Syrian army and the emergence of armed groups beyond the control of either the government or the Syrian National Council, the opposition’s umbrella organization. That could lead to violence spilling into neighboring countries, especially Iraq and Lebanon.

Rather than speculating about a civil war, the Arab League and the international community should focus on the dangers that the Syrian situation poses for regional peace.

A Franco-British resolution on Syria won a majority at the UN Security Council last month but was killed by Russian and Chinese vetoes. The Security Council should take up the issue again — this time to debate the threat to the region.

Last month, Russia and China tried to justify their vetoes by claiming that the Arab states were divided over Syria. This wasn’t true then and is less so now. The Arab League has suspended Syria’s membership and condemned the rule-by-massacre policy. Arab support is also building up for creating havens for Syrian refugees in Turkey, Lebanon, Iraq and Jordan.

Moscow had also expressed concern that, with Assad’s demise, a new Syrian government might “ignore Russia’s interests in the Middle East.” Since the vetoes, however, the Syrian National Council has established contact with Russia and China to offer assurances that a democratic Syria would pursue “cooperation with all nations.”

SNC sources tell me that they’ve also “opened a dialogue” with Iran, Assad’s main supporter, amid signs that it, too, may no longer be so sure about the despot’s chances of survival.

America must take the lead in mobilizing international support for the Syrian revolution. By removing one of the last regimes that still sponsors terrorism, the victory of democracy in Syria is in America’s best national interests.













Article 4.

Guardian

Turkey has a key role in Syria – now and in the future

Simon Tisdall



16 November 2011 -- The Arab League's unexpectedly tough action in suspending Syria, ostracising President Bashar al-Assad, and inviting opposition leaders to talks in Cairo has outraged the regime in Damascus, which suspects a US-led conspiracy to impose forcible regime change. But the increased hostility exhibited by Turkey, Syria's most powerful and best-connected neighbour, may yet prove decisive as Ankara assumes a crisis leadership role.

Until the uprising tore apart old certainties, the Turkish prime minister, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, had invested considerable capital in improved ties with Syria, with which Turkey almost went to war in the 1990s. A turning point came with the 2004 free trade agreement. This interdependence now gives Turkey significant economic leverage. Ankara has already imposed unilateral sanctions and is considering additional measures including a cut in electricity supplies.

Erdogan turned the screw again this week, accusing Assad personally of "feeding on blood" after he failed to honour the Arab League peace plan. "No regime can survive by killing or jailing," he said. "No one can build a future over the blood of the oppressed."

Turkey's motives are not difficult to discern. Chaos on its fragile southern flank, and Syria's possible descent into civil war, would be reasons enough to prompt Ankara's intervention. But Erdogan was also incensed by weekend attacks on Turkey's embassy in Damascus and regional consulates, apparently orchestrated by the regime. The government issued a formal protest and advised Turks against travel to Syria, a reversal of its proud open-borders policy.

Turkey also appears motivated by a desire to keep ahead of evolving Arab opinion. "It can comfortably be said, in light of recent developments, that the countdown to the end of Syria's Assad regime has begun," said Today's Zaman columnist Bülent Kenes, reflecting official opinion.

With senior Saudi officials and King Abdullah of Jordan openly backing the revolt, and the violence escalating, Erdogan and his foreign minister, Ahmet Davutoglu, who have long harboured regional leadership ambitions, seem to be positioning themselves for a post-Assad future.

In this push towards the Syrian endgame they plainly have the enthusiastic backing of the US, for whom they are effectively acting as a local proxy in opposition to external actors such as the pro-regime Russia. Given Erdogan's sharp differences with Washington over Israel-Palestine and the Iraq war, this coincidence of view is not lacking in irony. "We very much welcome the strong stance that Turkey has taken and believe it sends a critical message to President Assad that … he should step down," said Ben Rhodes, Barack Obama's deputy national security adviser.

In a series of statements, Davutoglu has insisted it is "no longer possible to trust the Syrian government". Adding provocation to insult, he underscored Ankara's support for the protesters and specifically for the Syrian National Council, an opposition umbrella group based in Turkey that is seeking recognition from Ankara. "We will continue to take our place at the side of the Syrian people's rightful struggle," Davutoglu said.

As bilateral tensions rise, suggestions that Turkey may physically intervene in northern Syria to create a safe haven for civilians displaced by the violence are likely to resurface. Several thousand Syrian refugees are already sheltering inside Turkey, as are numerous Syrian army defectors. Possibly anticipating Syrian retaliation, the newspaper Hürriyet reported that President Abdullah Gül recently warned Assad would pay a heavy price for stirring up trouble in Turkey's Kurdish south-east.

Fears that a Syrian meltdown could seriously destabilise the wider neighbourhood are also driving Turkey's hardening response. Such a scenario could affect Iraq, where security concerns are rising as the US withdrawal nears completion, and even Iran, a close Assad ally.

For its part, the Syrian regime has pressing reasons to fear Ankara's animosity, as Gökhan Bacik pointed out in Today's Zaman. Unlike many Muslim countries, Turkey identifies strongly with Europe, the US and Nato. And in the past decade, Erdogan's Justice and Development party has made its brand of moderate Islamist politics acceptable to previously blinkered western eyes.

In other words, Turkey, with its majority Sunni Muslim population, furnishes a role model for the disenfranchised Sunni majority in Syria (and other Arab spring countries). Not only is Ankara encouraging revolution in Damascus, it is also living proof that Assad's politics of fear are outdated, that Syrians have before them a workable alternative paradigm, and that, after the revolution, the country's secular, Islamist and other sectarian traditions could fairly hope to co-exist peacefully, Turkish-style.









Article 5.

Foreign Policy

Barack Obama's Foreign Policy

November 16, 2011


Foreign-policy credentials: As president, Obama has taken on a number of major foreign-policy initiatives, including a renewed troop surge in Afghanistan, the negotiation of the New START nuclear arms reduction treaty with Russia, the NATO intervention in Libya, the withdrawal from Iraq, ongoing trade negotiations with China, and of course, the killing of al Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden.


Overview: Obama is a much different candidate today from the senator who distinguished himself by his opposition to the "dumb war" on his way to the presidency in 2008. Obama has turned out, in many ways, to have pursued a fairly conventional, at times, hawkish foreign policy. He has had some notable successes, such as the bin Laden raid and this year's withdrawal from Iraq -- albeit on a timetable negotiated by his predecessor -- and the successful overthrow of Muammar al-Qaddafi. All the same, "apology tours" and "leading from behind" -- referring to an unfortunate description of Obama's diplomatic strategy by a White House staffer -- have already become buzzwords for Republican candidates. He has also faced heavy criticism on the left for a sometimes inconsistent approach to international law in counterterrorism operations.



But with a significant economic recovery appearing unlikely and fewer domestic achievements to point to than he might have expected, coupled with the international inexperience of his opponents, Obama may make his foreign-policy wins the centerpiece of his reelection strategy.



Advisors: Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, Defense Secretary Leon Panetta, National Security Advisor Thomas Donilon.



On the issues:



Afghanistan/Pakistan: "We have put al Qaeda on a path to defeat," Obama announced last June, noting that the 33,000 "surge" troops he sent to Afghanistan in 2009 would be out of the country by the summer of 2012. Although a constant barrage of drone strikes and special operations raids have taken a harsh toll on al Qaeda, it may be difficult for Obama to make the case that Afghanistan has achieved stability or that Hamid Karzai's government can stand on its own without U.S. assistance.



Relations with Pakistan have deteriorated significantly under Obama's tenure, particularly following the bin Laden raid. He has pledged to "constantly evaluate" the relationship between the two countries going forward but says he would be hesitant to cut off aid that could "help the Pakistani people strengthen their own society and their own government."



Military spending: Backed by his then current defense secretary, Robert Gates, Obama announced last April that the Pentagon will lead a "fundamental review" of U.S. military capabilities in order to cut $400 billion in defense spending over the next 10 years. "We need to not only eliminate waste and improve efficiency and effectiveness, but conduct a fundamental review of America's missions, capabilities, and our role in a changing world," Obama said. Of course, major cuts could come sooner than that if the congressional "supercommittee" fails to reach an agreement on deficit reduction by Nov. 23.



Immigration/borders: Obama insists that enacting comprehensive immigration reform, which would likely include a path to citizenship for at least some illegal immigrants already in the United States, is still a "top priority," but with little congressional enthusiasm for such a measure, it has been pushed to the back burner for now. Meanwhile, deportations of illegal immigrants are continuing at a record pace, though the administration touts the fact that a higher percentage of those deported have criminal records.



Obama has substantially increased the number of agents patrolling the U.S.-Mexico border, but has also mocked the fence-building enthusiasm of Republicans, saying they won't be happy until there's a "moat with alligators."



Israel/Palestine: Obama's engagement in the Israeli-Palestinian peace process has probably been the most frustrating foreign-policy initiative of his presidency and the one on which he is most often criticized by his Republican opponents. Obama continues to support negotiations on a two-state settlement of the conflict, but his best-remembered statement on the topic is controversial: his suggestion that Israel's pre-1967 war borders be taken as a starting point for negotiations, a position fiercely opposed by Israel. More recently, the administration has confirmed that it will veto Palestine's statehood bid in the U.N. Security Council.



Obama's relationship with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has seemed very strained at times. In a recently overheard conversation he told French President Nicolas Sarkozy, "You're fed up with him? I have to deal with him every day."



China: Obama has repeatedly criticized China -- most recently at the APEC summit in Honolulu -- for currency policies that he says have a distorting effect on the global economy. The president has made a few cautious statements on China's human rights record but came under criticism for delaying a White House meeting with the Dalai Lama. This year, the administration confirmed a $5.8 billion package of arms sales for Taiwan that provoked a predictable Chinese backlash.



Foreign aid: In his 2010 address to the U.N. General Assembly, Obama announced an overhaul of U.S. foreign aid policies, which he vowed will place them at the center of U.S. foreign policy. In the speech he called aid a "core pillar of American power." Nonetheless, foreign aid to a number of countries was cut by Congress in the 2012 budget.



Iran/nukes: Early in his presidency, Obama made several overtures to Iran in an effort to improve relations. Critics say this engagement strategy went too far during the 2009 Green Movement uprising against the reelection of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, when the Obama administration was reluctant to overtly back the protesters. Since then, the administration has instituted a number of new sanctions against Iran that are aimed at halting its nuclear enrichment program. "We are not taking any options off the table. Iran with nuclear weapons would pose a threat not only to the region but also to the United States," Obama said in a recent news conference in Hawaii.



Trade: In October, Obama signed long-delayed free trade agreements with Colombia, Panama, and South Korea. On his trip to Asia this November, Obama is working to promote a new trans-Pacific free trade agreement. "We're not going to be able to put our folks back to work and grow our economy and expand opportunity unless the Asia-Pacific region is also successful," he said. Obama has indefinitely put on hold a campaign promise to renegotiate NAFTA.



War on terror/detainees: Obama signed an executive order closing the Guantánamo Bay detention center as one of his first actions as president. The facility remains open, however, largely due to congressional opposition over where to house the remaining prisoners. Obama has put a halt to the "enhanced interrogation techniques" employed by George W. Bush's administration but has enraged some civil liberties advocates by authorizing the extrajudicial killing of alleged al Qaeda terrorist Anwar al-Awlaki, a U.S. citizen. Obama has also disappointed some liberal supporters by resuming military trials of terrorism suspects at Guantánamo.



Environment: Despite his stated support for environmental legislation and green energy, there has been little progress on passing major climate-change bills under Obama's watch. Thanks largely to Obama's public intervention, an agreement was reached at the 2009 Copenhagen climate summit, but in failing to impose enforceable emissions targets, the meeting was widely considered a failure. This year, Obama abandoned tough new air-quality rules, adopted early in his administration.



Russia/reset: One of the centerpieces of Obama's first-term foreign policy was the effort to "reset" relations with Russia. The president successfully negotiated the New START nuclear reduction treaty, though there have been significant disagreements with both Russia and his GOP opponents over the contours of missile defense. Human rights advocates have criticized the president for ignoring the erosion of Russian democracy. Russia has also continued to stymie U.S. efforts to impose tough international sanctions on Iran and Syria. Obama seemed to have made friends with President Dmitry Medvedev, but relations with Russia may only get tougher, with Vladimir Putin's likely return to the Russian presidency.



Arab Spring: After a slow start, the Obama administration eventually came around to calling for Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak to step down, joining the NATO intervention in Libya, and supporting stricter sanctions against Syria. The president has been less outspoken about other Persian Gulf allies, including Bahrain, which hosts a key U.S. naval base. Obama has urged Egypt and Tunisia to "set a strong example through free and fair elections, a vibrant civil society, accountable and effective democratic institutions, and responsible regional leadership."



Other issues: Although he once described himself as a George H.W. Bush-school realist, in the past year Obama has learned to embrace humanitarian intervention, both in Libya and in central Africa, where military advisors have been sent to aid in the fight against the long-running insurgency by the Lord's Resistance Army. There's speculation that Nigeria may be next. It's a measure of how much things have changed in the last four years that Republicans are now attacking the Democratic president for trying to spread democracy and human rights at the barrel of a gun.



As the European economic crisis has worsened, Obama has been speaking out more in support of strong measures to protect the common currency. "Ultimately what they are going to need is a firewall that sends a clear signal we stand behind the European project and we stand behind the euro," he said during his recent trip to Australia.








Article 6.

Project Syndicate

America in the Asian Century

Dominique Moisi



2011-11-15 – At “ground zero” in lower Manhattan, two empty spaces will be filled by water cascades, memorializing in a serene and respectful way the victims of the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001. Next to them, a powerful tower, designed by the architect Daniel Libeskind and nearly completed, rises vigorously into the sky, a symbol of the triumph of life over the forces of death. One word comes to mind to characterize the impression made by this place, the site of an unprecedented crime: resilience.

In a building that houses what will one day be a memorial museum, one can buy a DVD entitled “9/12: From Chaos to Community.” Ground Zero is the architectural and human proof that, despite America’s current economic woes, it would be premature, if not dangerous, to write the country off as a declining power. America has the moral and intellectual resources that it needs in order to rebound.

But what is necessary is not sufficient. In order to reinvent itself, if not to manage its relative international decline, America must proceed toward a rebalancing of its domestic and international priorities. In the immediate aftermath of World War I, a triumphant America withdrew from global responsibility, with tragic consequences for the balance of power in a Europe that was left to face its inner demons alone.

In the aftermath of World War II, by contrast, the US managed successfully to contain Soviet ambitions. Today, unlike in 1945, Americans do not confront an imminent threat. Russia may speak loudly (using its permanent seat on the United Nations Security Council as a megaphone), but it is a greatly reduced rump of the Soviet Union. Likewise, while the nationalism of America’s principal rival, China, has become more assertive lately, the communist regime’s clear priority – indeed, the key to its stability – is domestic economic growth.

Indeed, the only obvious danger that the US faces stems from weapons of mass destruction, which could proliferate or be used by terrorist groups. But confronting this threat does not require a massive military budget or huge deployments of US troops all over the world. America has a much-needed opportunity to refocus on itself – to recover its inner strength without withdrawing from the world. As Richard Haass, the president of the Council on Foreign Relations, puts it, America must enter a period of “restoration” of its fundamentals.

American foreign policy starts at home, and that means reining in budget deficits over the long term, reviving economic growth and job creation in the short term, and addressing the country’s deteriorating infrastructure. Indeed, America’s “aged modernity” has become a drag on its competitiveness, as well as an insult to its international image and a risk to the safety of its citizens.

Moreover, imperial fatigue has set in. Recent US history has been characterized by cycles of enthusiasm about foreign engagement. In the mid-1970’s, following the war in Vietnam, America, guided by President Jimmy Carter’s moralizing impulse, opted for “regionalization” of its engagements. But, given that the Soviet threat still existed, this effort came too early (and probably was carried out in the wrong manner).

Today, by contrast, the starting point for a reassessment of American priorities is more economic than ethical. But the reasoning is the same, for it is based on the conviction that more America in the world today implies less costly and confused interventionism tomorrow. That means that US foreign policy itself – defined in recent years by too much attention to the Middle East, and too little to Asia – must embrace a shift in priorities.

Of course, in the midst of today’s ongoing Arab revolutions, America cannot simply ignore the Middle East. Nor must the US give up hope on the Israel-Palestine front, or on its efforts to contain Iran’s nuclear ambitions. But it is in Asia that history is unfolding – and where the US must define its long-term global strategy.

Must the US, as Henry Kissinger suggests in his latest book On China, consider the prospect of a “Pacific Community” that, unlike the Cold War-era Atlantic Community, is not based on common culture and values in the face of a direct threat, but on common interests in an “age of rebalancing of world order”?

America’s resilience may contrast with Europe’s multiple weaknesses. But resilience will not be enough. The US must get back into shape to face tomorrow’s challenges, and that means restoring economic growth, reducing deficits, and improving infrastructure. Paradoxically, only a more confident America can accept a reduced global status, because reconciling oneself to change is always easier once one has taken the steps needed to adjust to it.



Dominique Moisi is the author of The Geopolitics of Emotion.





























1

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HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_031964
txt
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fo/9bq6uj0p ... tracking=1

From: Jeffrey Epstein [[email protected]]
Sent: 8/31/2013 7:21:40 PM
To: ehud barak
Subject: Re:
I would use the opportunity to compare it with iran. the solutions become more compelx with time not less. i
think many people would like your views on egypt. syria, etc. russias role.? i think you might point out the
gassing of" women and children" is an expressions from the 20th centry. women are no longer equiv to
children, . civilians. vs combatants . only.
On Sat, Aug 31, 2013 at 2:55 PM, ehud barak <______________________> wrote:
After listening to POTUS speech, You're probably right. EB
Sent from my iPhone
On Aug 31, 2013, at 21:06, Jeffrey Epstein <[email protected]> wrote:
it will be at a minmumm a week or two not before g20
On Sat, Aug 31, 2013 at 12:03 PM, ehud barak wrote:
it might be launched before the op ed will be accepted by any major paper
On Aug 31, 2013, at 1:06 PM, Jeffrey Epstein <[email protected]> wrote:
Time to write the wait "until too late "op Ed ???
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[admin]

HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_031972
txt
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fo/9bq6uj0p ... tracking=1

nr
York. noncompliance with ederal immi- Sacramenw,
romento and Vi _
iVart Yee from New onstrate that it
f
Thomas Fuller +--
reported _
Suit Against California
Relies on a Court Case
Won by Obama in 2012
tr. sac
..Sre•pfzera shacleee, a law profes-
ses-et the Chzieersity of Tetras, said
history was repeating itself, but
backward.
"The suit is modeled on the
Marna administration's success-
ful suit against Arizona," he said.
But he added that "some of the
key considerations are flipped."
In the Arizona case, conserva-
tives insisted that respect for state
sovereignty required letting
states play a leading role in con-
trolling immigration within their
borders. But Mr. Sessions, a long-
time conservative himself, disa-
vowed that position in his speech
on Wednesday. "Immigration law
is the province of the federal gov-
ernment," he said.
Justice Antonin Scalia, the con-
servative jurist who died in 2016,
took a different view of the Ari-
zona case. In an impassioned par-
tial dissent, he wrote that "it is
easy to lose sight of the states' tra-
ditional role in regulating immi-
gration — and to overlook their
sovereign prerogative to do so."
There is no doubt that the Cali-
fornia lawsuit is at odds with some
of the Trump administration's
usual positions. "It's a fascinating
suit on a number of levels," Profes-
sor Vladeck said, "not the least of
aznalosous contexts,
Cristina nearigoes, a law pro-
at 'Yale said she detected
political parallels between the two
suits.
"Both administrations claim
that the state laws they challenge
impermissibly interfere with the
executive branch's ability to en-
force the immigration laws," she
said. "But both lawsuits are also
clearly designed to take on visible
and politically powerful local offi-
cials whose vision of immigration
policy conflicts with the presi-
dent's and his supporters'."
In a news conference on
Wednesday, Xavier Becerra, the
California attorney general, said
he was ready for the fight. The
state's laws, he said, were "fully
constitutional and provide for the
safety and welfare of all our peo-
ple."
"California is in the business of
public safety," he said. "We are not
in the business of deportations?'
The Justice Department chal-
lenged parts of three of Califor-
nia's so-called sanctuary laws.
One restricts employers from co-
operating with immigration offi-
cials. A second generally prohibits
state officials from telling federal
ones when undocumented immi-
grants are to be released from
NOAH BERGER/AGENGE FRANGE.PRESSE — GETTY IMAGES
Protesting a speech delivered by Attorney General Jeff Sessions in Sacramento on Wednesday.
The state may not
pursue policies that
undermine federal
law,' a justice wrote.
the commandeering issue was a
substantial one. "To the ?xtenttlie-,_
Trump administration s claims
against California would produce
an outcome that would effectively
force states and localities to par-
ticipate m immigration enforce-
ment; she said,'. there couldhe an
unconstitutional commandeer-
ing:"
Professor Spiro said that Cali-
fornia may have the upper hand in
the suit's early stages, as the is-
sues in it are novel, leaving judges
with substantial discretion.
The Trump administration has
not fared well in federal courts in
California in other cases concern-
ing immigration, including ones
challenging President Trump's ef-
forts to restrict travel from pre-
dominantly Muslim countries and
to rescind a program protecting
some 700,000 young unauthorized
immigrants from deportation.
But the ultimate fate of the suit
will probably rest with the Su-
preme Court. In 2012, with what
may have been unwarranted opti-
mism Justice Kennedy said he
hoped that conflicts over immi-
gration policy would be worked
out through reasoned discussion.
"The national government has
significant power to regulate im-
migration," he wrote. "The sound
exercise of national power over
immigration depends on the na-
tion's meeting its responsibility to
base its laws on a political will in-
formed by searching, thoughtful,
rational civic discourse?'
state custody. A third requires
state officials to inspect some fa-
cilities that house people detained
on behalf of the federal govern-
ment.
Jennifer Chacon, a law profes-
sor at the University of California,
Irvine, said the state laws had
been carefully written to avoid di-
rect conflicts with federal immi-
gration laws. "I think it is clear
that California deliberately tried
to draft laws that involved core ex-
ercises of state police power in a
way that did not run afoul of fed-
eral law," she said.
Each state law presents differ-
ent issues, and courts may give
varying answers depending on
how directly the state laws con-
flict with federal ones. More gen-
erally, though, courts will take ac-
count of the Supreme Court's deci-
sion in the Arizona case, which
called for collaboration rather
than conflict.
"Consultation between federal
and state officials is an important
feature of the immigration sys-
tem?' Justice Kennedy wrote in
the court's decision in the Arizona
case.
Gov. Jerry Brown, a Democrat,
has said that consultation is fine
but that federal officials should
not use California's resources to
pursue undocumented Californi-
ans. The federal government, he
added, may do so on its own.
"They are free to use their own
considerable resources to enforce
federal immigration law in Cali-
fornia," he said in October in sign-
ing one of the challenged laws.
The Supreme Court has said
that the federal government may
not commandeer state resources
to achieve federal objectives. In
his speech on Wednesday, Mr. Ses-
sions denied that anything like
that was afoot.
"Contrary to what you might
hear from the lawless open bor-
ders radicals," he said, "we are not
asking California, Oakland or any-
one else to enforce immigration
laws."
"We are simply asking Califor-
nia and other sanctuary jurisdic-
tions to stop actively obstructing
federal law enforcement," he add-
ed.
But Professor Rodriguez said
Investigating Sexual Misconduct Accusations, Arizona State Suspends a Physicist
By KENNETH CHANG
Arizona State University has
suspended Lawrence M. Krauss,
a prominent theoretical physicist,
while the university investigates
accusations of sexual misconduct
over a decade.
"In an effort to avoid further
disruption to the normal course of
business as the university contin-
ues to gather facts about the alle-
gations, Krauss has been placed
on paid leave and is prohibited
from being on campus for the du-
ration of the review," the univer-
sity said in a statement released
on Thesday.
Last month, BuzzFeed reported
that several women have accused
Dr. Krauss of inappropriate be-
havior including groping women
and making sexist jokes.
The university said it would not
Order home delivery today.
release any additional details until
its investigation is complete.
Dr. Krauss, a professor in the
university's School of Earth and
Space Exploration, is director of
Arizona State's Origins Project, a
multidisciplinary research effort
to tackle questions about life, the
universe and complex social prob-
lems. He gained prominence for
his book, "The Physics of Star
Trek" in 1995. He later became one
of the leaders of the so-called
"skeptics" movement that es-
pouses science over religion. He
has also written essays and Op-Ed
articles that were published in
The Times.
Michael Crow, president of Ari-
zona State, told The State Press,
an independent student news or-
ganization, that the university had
received no complaints of har-
assment against Dr. Krauss. The
university started the investiga-
tion after being contacted by Buz-
zFeed.
Dr. Krauss moved to Arizona
State from Case Western Reserve
University in Ohio in 2008.
Lawrence M. Krauss is direc-
tor of Arizona State's Origins
Project, a multidisciplinary re-
search effort to tackle ques-
tions about life, the universe
and complex social problems.
CAROLYN RAs thA/AA.A,AT`rs YY`''S
On Wednesday afternoon, Dr.
Krauss posted a lengthy rebuttal
to the BuzzFeed article. He said
many of the incidents reported by
BuzzFeed were based on unsub-
F'c05
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ce
4
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-,sto•-•
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11v.
signed from the board of e
stantiated rumors and others letin of the Atomic Scientists,
which is best known for its
Doomsday Clock that represents
that danger of atomic war and
other calamities to the planet. In
his resignation letter, he said he
was resigning from the board be-
cause he did not want to distract
from the organization's work.
Additionally, a conference
scheduled for next month to mark
the 10th anniversary of the On-
of often vague innuendo. gins Project has been canceled.
The university is not the only "What we hope to do is reschedule
one to take action against Dr. it for another time," Dr. Krauss
Krauss. The American Physical said in an interview on Wednes-
Society and other organizations day.
were distorted and misleading.
"Has my language or demeanor
sometimes made others feel un-
comfortable?" Dr. Krauss wrote.
"Clearly yes, and for that I sin-
cerely apologize. Nevertheless,
the BuzzFeed article effectively
paints a false picture of me and my
relationships with others through
a mosaic constructed largely out
of anonymous hearsay aml a we b
have withdrawn invitations to Dr.
Krauss for upcoming talks. The
Center for Inquiry, an organiza-
tion that promotes secularism,
suspended its association with Dr.
Krauss on Monday.
On Tuesday, Dr. Krauss re-
th Bul-

Chatgpt
11/14/25
Did Jeffrey epstein know and hang out with Arizona State University Lawrence M. Krauss, a prominent theoretical physicist, investigated for accusations of sexual misconduct over a decade.

Yes. There’s solid documentary evidence that Lawrence M. Krauss knew Jeffrey Epstein and interacted with him both professionally and socially.
Here’s what’s on the record:
• Epstein-funded conference and island visit (2006):
Krauss helped organize a gravity conference in 2006 that was funded by a Jeffrey Epstein–linked foundation. The meeting was held in St. Thomas in the U.S. Virgin Islands and included a trip to Epstein’s private island for dinner with the participants. Wikipedia
• Money to ASU’s Origins Project:
While Krauss was running the Origins Project at Arizona State University, Epstein’s foundation Enhanced Education donated about $250,000 to the project. Additional donations linked to Epstein associates Leon and Debra Black brought the total Epstein-connected funding to over $2 million. Times Higher Education (THE)+3statepress.com+3statepress.com+3
• Krauss’s own public comments about Epstein:
After Epstein’s 2008 conviction in Florida, Krauss publicly defended him, saying he judged by “empirical evidence” and that he didn’t feel “tarnished” by the relationship, but rather “raised by it.” Wikipedia
• Emails and ongoing contact:
Newly released emails from Epstein’s archives show Krauss exchanging dozens of messages with him, including discussing how to respond to the sexual-misconduct allegations against Krauss at ASU and joking with Epstein about a “men of the world” conference. Scientific American+2Wikipedia+2
• Social settings / “hanging out”:
Other academics (for example, Steven Pinker) have said Krauss was among the colleagues who invited them to gatherings—“salons and coffee klatsches”—that included Epstein, indicating they mixed in the same social circles beyond purely transactional fundraising. Wikipedia
So in everyday language: yes, Krauss did “know and hang out with” Epstein—he helped organize an Epstein-funded conference that involved a visit to Epstein’s island, obtained substantial funding from him for ASU’s Origins Project, attended events with him, and maintained email contact with him even after Epstein’s sex-offense conviction.
Recent reporting on Epstein’s ties to scientists and academics
AP News
Emails reveal Epstein's network of the rich and powerful despite sex offender status

[admin]

HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_031973
txt
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fo/9bq6uj0p ... tracking=1

From: paul krassner
Sent: 5/15/2019 12:17:32 AM
To: George Krassner
Rebecca Risman
Subject: rather long and a few typos
• nick kazan
Linda W. Grossman
REMEMBERING CAVALIER MAGAZINE
; Mrisman02
LAUNCHING A MAGAZINE
My friend Michael Simmons, who has been the editor of National Lampoon and High
Times, observes that cavalier hired fine scribes. A few examples: Thomas Pynchon, Philip Roth,
William Saroyman, Isaac Asimov, Theodore Sturgeon. Cavalier was launched by Fawcett
Publications in 1952.
Men's magazine Cavalier (motto: "For the American Male") was published the year
before Playboy to whom it has often been compared, and back in the day tried to be seen as
slightly hipper, more youthful and considered a bit more clever than its big name rival. Almost
an anti-establishment Playboy. A slogan stated: "Your dad bought Playboy, you
bought Cavalier."
I BECAME A COLUMNIST
I was invited to write a column, named "The Naked Emperor," for Cavalier, that was beginning
to publish underground writers and artists. They paid me $1,000 a month. My first column was a
report on an auction of two-inch squares from the hotel bedsheets slept on by the Beatles during
their first trip to America.
There were 300 screaming young girls, off on a fetishist's holiday. Obviously, there wouldn't be
enough items to go around, but it was announced that the Beatles' unwashed towels and bed
linens were to be cut into two-inch squares and sold for $1 each. The price included a notarized
statement of authenticity.
HOUSE OVERSIGHT 031973
My second column was about Lenny Bruce___titled "Lenny the Lawyer," since he defended
himself in trials He was arrested for obscene performances only because there were no blasphemy
laws. I went to the bank and deposited my check, withdrawing half of it in cash, a $500 bill.
Lenny was alone in his hotel room on Christmas Day when I presented it to him. And, with a
large safety pin, Lenny attached the $500 bill to the outside breast pocket of his denim dungaree
j acket.
AFTER JFK ASSASSINATION
In another column of mine, "Jack Ruby and His Dirty Little Secret," it began, "Lenny Bruce
told me how all the night club comics used to Jack Ruby's "tattoo of a lady's schmutzik (translate:
pussy) in his armpit." If it wasn't a fact, I was quite willing to settle for an apocryphal allusion
which nevertheless crystallized the entire personality of that alleged murderer who wanted so
very much to be liked.
I say alleged because upon Ruby's own death. Dallas District Attorney Henry Wade said he
would dismiss the murder charge against him, a promise which has since been kept, although no
such posthumous grace was ever officially bestowed on Lee Harvey Oswald. See, they grant you
retroactive innocence only in the face of innumerable witnesses who were present at the actual
event through the miracle of inadvertent televised coverage.
Now Jack Ruby's dirty little secret has been forever sealed away in his armpit by the hymen of
history. Oh yeah, and at Lenny's funeral, that safety pin was still attached on his jacket.
JULES SIEGEL
Two years before Lenny's death, with his permission I published his obituary in my own
magazine, The Realist. Before the issue went to press, he called his mother and a few others to
let them know it would only be a hoax. The point was that he couldn't get work and his work was
his life so he might as well be dead. And if people regretted that they hadn't helped him, well,
HOUSE OVERSIGHT 031974
now they could have a second chance because he was still alive. The obituary evoked inquiries
from newspapers, wire services, foreign publications, radio and TV.
"What's the meaning of it?" one editor asked me. "There's a lot of excitement at the city
desk."
"That is the meaning of it."
A few years later, without my permission, Jules Siegel, the editor of a short-lived
magazine, Cheetah, published a fake obituary of me. I thought it was funny. An Associated Press
reporter called, and I explained that it was a hoax.
"Are you sure?" he asked.
"Of course. I would tell you if I was dead."
Siegel started writing for cavalier. His first assignment was a profile of Sterling Hayden, an actor
best known in Dr, Stranglove or How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the Bomb.
Journalist Adam Ellsworth described Siegel's "Goodbye Surfing, Hello God" with his most
famous example of rock journalism, but his most revolutionary was his article, "The Big Beat."
It appeared in the Playboy-esque Cavalier magazine in 1965 and was one of the earliest writings
he'd ever seen on the development of rock and roll, from slaves singing in chains on their way to
America to Bob Dylan "going electric" at the Newport Folk Festival.
Then Jules' friend, Arthur Kretchmer, became Cavalier's managing editor. "When the editorial
director later resigned," Kretchmer said, "there was a 24-hour hiatus before the new editor
arrived." Siegel and Kretchmer had been discussing the possibility of publishing an issue on rock
and roll, so to make it happen, Kretchmer went into the office at night and retyped the magazine's
schedule to include their ideas.
When the new editorial started, Kretchmer handed him the schedules and said, "Here's what
we're working on." The new editorial director suspected nothing and the rock and roll issue went
ahead. Once the laughter died down, Jules talked for a good 25 minutes about
HOUSE OVERSIGHT 031975
some of the ups and downs of his writing career and how hard it is to make a
living as any kind of a writer, let alone a "rock journalist." and the people who
created it, seriously.
Now everybody writes about rock and roll that way. Jules was one of the
people who did it first. "Goodbye Surfing, Hello God!" is Jules's most famous
example of rock journalism, but I think his most revolutionary is his article
"The Big Beat." It appeared in the Playboy-esque Cavalier magazine in 1965
and is one of the earliest writings I've ever seen on the development of rock
and roll, from slaves singing in chains on their way to America to Bob Dylan
"going electric" at the Newport Folk Festival.
Jules Siegel died of a heart attack on November 17, 2012 at the age of 77.
He was a brilliant author, but neither Rolling Stone nor the New York
Times honored him with an obituary. Not even a fake one.
COMIC STRIPS
Art Spiegelman tells me his work at Cavalier 50 years ago:
I was first invited into the mag to do two full-color comix pages in 1969 (when being printed in color
was a Very Big Deal for me as was Getting Paid more than 25 bucks for a drawing), somehow in
proximity to a big article on underground comix. It was around the time Vaughn Bode was made a
regular contributor to the magazine, They were running some Crumb "Fritz the Cat" pages. All thanx
to their hip, laid back and kind editor, Alan LeMond.
I also did some gag cartoons, short strips and occasional illustrations for Cavalier (one especially
bad drawing for a story by Bruce Jay Friedman, I recall). My work in 1969, as an apprentice
underground cartoonist taking too many drugs was really, really awful so I'm grateful for the editor's
hip and laid-back kindness. But, hey, I was proud to be in a mag that published pieces by Pynchon,
Manny Farber and you.
HOUSE OVERSIGHT 031976
By the time I'd gotten incrementally better as a cartoonist in the first half of the 1970s I was regularly
doing illustrations for soft-core fiction stories in Cavalier's low-rent sister
mags, Dude, Gent and Nugget (even wrote a story or two there and got several of my San Francisco
comix cronies (Spain Rodriguez, Bill Griffith and Justin Greene) illustration gigs with Alan for those
mags as well.
I was first invited into the mag to do two full-color comix pages in 1969 (when being printed in color
was a Very Big Deal for me as was Getting Paid more than 25 bucks for a drawing), somehow in
proximity to a big article on underground comix. They were running some Crumb "Fritz the Cat"
pages. All thanx to their hip, laid back and kind editor LeMond. I also did some gag cartoons, short
strips and occasional illustrations for Cavalier (one especially bad drawing for a story by Bruce Jay
Friedman).
My work in 1969, as an apprentice underground cartoonist taking too many drugs was really, really
awful so I'm grateful for the editor's hip and laid-back kindness. By the time I'd gotten incrementally
better as a cartoonist in the first half of the 1970s I was regularly doing illustrations for soft-core
fiction stories, even wrote a story or two there and got several of my S.F. comix cronies (Spain
Rodriguez, Bill Griffith and Justin Greene) illustration gigs with Alan for those mags as well.
[Note in Wikipedia: Maus is a graphic novel by American cartoonist Art Spiegelman,
serialized from 1980 to 1991. It depicts Spiegelman interviewing his father about his experiences
as a Polish Jew and Holocaust survivor. The work employs postmodemist techniques and
represents Jews as mice, Germans as cats, and Poles as pigs. In 1992, Maus won a Pulitzer Prize.]
COMIING AND GOING
I wrote some movie reviews for Cavalier. I recall that Midnight Cowboy was 50 years ago. I
always went to two screenings. The first one I would go stoned with magic mushrooms. The
second one I took notes. However, I got fired by Cavalier.
HOUSE OVERSIGHT 031977
They declined to publish a particular column--my review of MASH as though it were a Busby
Berkeley musical called Gook Killers of 1970-- ostensibly on the grounds of bad taste, but I
learned that three wholesalers had told the publisher they were pressured by the FBI and would
refuse to distribute Cavalier if my name appeared in it.
On top of that, my name was on a list of sixty-five "radical" campus speakers, released by the
House Internal Security Committee. The blacklist was published in the New York Times, and
picked up by newspapers across the country. It might have been a coincidence, but my campus-
speaking engagement-bookings stopped abruptly. It felt just like a film.
OH, WELL
It was over for me, but it had been fun___like the issue with only the one large red headline
on the Cavalier cover: "BEAT 'EM SENSELESS FIRST"___THE FREE SPEECH
CONTROVERSY, BY PAUL KRASSNER . . . "Ironically," I wrote, "it is this concept of the
total education experience on campus which I believe to be the basic significance of the much-
misunderstood free-speech imbroglio at the University of California in Berkeley."
The sit-in lasted till 3 a.m. Next day, October 1, 1964, ten tables were manned again, and
a campus policeman approached one of the tables (manned by the Congress of Racial Equality)
where a dozen persons were seated. One was singled out and placed under arrest. But before you
could say nonviolent demonstration, the police car was surrounded, its captors reaching as many
as 3,000 students. During the late evening, bored fraternity men gathered and tossed lighted
cigarettes and eggs on those sitting in the plaza. The demonstrators responded with silence.
Next day, 450 police assembled on campus to remove the cop car and its arrested inhabitant,
but an agreement to negotiate was reached and the demonstrators dispersed. One of the folk songs
to come out of the Free Speech Movement incidentally, was If I Negotiate With You, to the tune
of the Beatles' If IFell in Love With You.
HOUSE OVERSIGHT 031978
Over the next couple of months there was a series of sit-ins and attempted negotiations, and
then, on December 2, the infamous Sproul Hall sit-in. It took twelve hours for 800 students to be
arrested by some 600 instructors of a new course called Introductory Police Brutality. These were
from the lab notes student took.
There was a freshman co-ed at Berkeley who___long after she had forgotten what some
professor spouted during an official lecture about Dostoevsky's Crime and Punishment___would
remember, with perhaps a twinge of frightened pride, learning from a fellow demonstrator that if
she planned to go limp when the police arrested her, it would be an act of practical feminine
foresight to remove the earrings from her pierced lobes in advance.
So, now in 2019, fighting over free speech has been happening heavily at Berkeley campus again.
Meanwhile, Trump grabbed a pussy on the Statue of Liberty. Cavalier, anyone?
HOUSE OVERSIGHT 031979

[admin]

HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_031980
txt
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fo/9bq6uj0p ... tracking=1

From: Jay Lefkowitz
Sent: 3/8/2011 4:41:04 PM
To: Michael S. Sitrick
Subject: Fw: Alexandra Wolfe called from Newsweek
; Jeffrey Epstein
----- Original Message -----
From: Kristin Andersen
Sent: 03/08/2011 11:09 AM EST
To: Jay Lefkowitz
Subject: Alexandra Wolfe called from Newsweek
Privileged - Redacted
----- Forwarded by Kristin Andersen/New
York/Kirkland-Ellis on 03/08/2011 11:05 AM
"Wolfe,
Alexandra
03/07/201
1 02:09
PM
Dear Mr. Lefkowitz,
To
"Jay Lefkowitz"
RE:
CC
Subject
Here are the questions I'd like to ask Jeffrey Epstein.
Would he be available to answer any of these on the
phone or by email? People have told me some of his
thoughts on background but I wanted to see if he could
tell me or email me anything directly I could use on
the record. Also I'd like to run the information I
already have by you or him.
Thank you,
Alexandra
-What is he chiefly focusing on now? Is he spending
more time on The Jeffrey Epstein Science Foundation?
Could he talk about his interest in science and the
2011 grants/conference?
-How has his business been affected? Is there any new
direction he's taking it? Does he still have the same
clients or new ones? Is it still at $15 billion?
-Did he still work while in prison? How was that
arranged? With whom was he working/advising?
-Where is he spending his time now? How has his social
life changed from three years ago?
-Is he still close with Ghislaine Maxwell?
-What were friends/colleagues/acquaintances reactions
to his conviction?
-What does he think about the sentence he got- was it
too lenient or too harsh and why?
HOUSE OVERSIGHT 031980
-What is his side of the story and have people been
supportive?
-Is he continuing the charity initiatives he started
with Bill Clinton, etc?
-----Original Message
From: Jay Lefkowitz
Sent: Mon 3/7/2011 12:18 PM
To: Wolfe, Alexandra
Subject:
I
Dear Ms. Wolfe,
I understand you have some questions about my client,
Jeffrey Epstein. Given that much of the press coverage
surrounding Mr. Epstein has been inaccurate and in some
instances, defamatory, I would like to suggest that you
send me any facutal questions so that I can provide you
with accurate responses.
I am also available to speak with you. My number is
Thank you,
Jay
***********************************************************
The information contained in this communication is
confidential, may be attorney-client privileged, may
constitute inside information, and is intended only for
the use of the addressee. It is the property of
Kirkland & Ellis LLP or Kirkland & Ellis International
LLP.
Unauthorized use, disclosure or copying of this
communication or any part thereof is strictly
prohibited
and may be unlawful. If you have received this
communication in error, please notify us immediately by
return e-mail or by e-mail to [email protected],
and
destroy this communication and all copies thereof,
including all attachments.
***********************************************************
This e-mail, including attachments, is intended for the
person (s)
or company named and may contain confidential and/or
legally
privileged information. Unauthorized disclosure,
copying or use of
this information may be unlawful and is prohibited. If
you are not
the intended recipient, please delete this message and
notify the
sender.
***********************************************************
The information contained in this communication is
confidential, may be attorney-client privileged, may
constitute inside information, and is intended only for
the use of the addressee. It is the property of
Kirkland & Ellis LLP or Kirkland & Ellis International LLP.
Unauthorized use, disclosure or copying of this
communication or any part thereof is strictly prohibited
and may be unlawful. If you have received this
HOUSE OVERSIGHT 031981
communication in error, please notify us immediately by
return e-mail or by e-mail to postmasterairkland.com, and
destroy this communication and all copies thereof,
including all attachments.
***********************************************************
HOUSE OVERSIGHT 031982

[admin]

HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_031983
txt
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fo/9bq6uj0p ... tracking=1

From: Jeffrey Epstein [[email protected]]
Sent: 3/7/2011 7:12:54 PM
To: Jay Lefkowitz
Subject: Re: Fw:
Privileged - Redacted
On Mon, Mar 7, 2011 at 11:11 AM, Jay Lefkowitz < wrote:
-----Original Message-----
From: "Wolfe, Alexandra"
Sent: 03/07/2011 02:04 PM EST
To: Jay Lefkowitz
Subject: RE:
Dear Mr. Lefkowitz,
Here are the questions I'd like to ask Jeffrey Epstein. Would he be available to answer any of these on the
phone or by email? People have told me some of his thoughts on background but I wanted to see if he could
tell me or email me anything directly I could use on the record. Also I'd like to run the information I already
have by you or him.
Thank you,
Alexandra
-What is he chiefly focusing on now? Is he spending more time on The Jeffrey Epstein Science Foundation?
Could he talk about his interest in science and the 2011 grants/conference?
-How has his business been affected? Is there any new direction he's taking it? Does he still have the same
clients or new ones? Is it still at $15 billion?
-Did he still work while in prison? How was that arranged? With whom was he working/advising?
-Where is he spending his time now? How has his social life changed from three years ago?
-Is he still close with Ghislaine Maxwell?
-What were friends/colleagues/acquaintances reactions to his conviction?
-What does he think about the sentence he got- was it too lenient or too harsh and why?
-What is his side of the story and have people been supportive?
-Is he continuing the charity initiatives he started with Bill Clinton, etc?
-----Original Message-----
From: Jay Lefkowitz [mailto:__
Sent: Mon 3/7/2011 12:18 PM
To: Wolfe, Alexandra
Subject:
Dear Ms. Wolfe,
HOUSE OVERSIGHT 031983
I understand you have some questions about my client,
Jeffrey Epstein. Given that much of the press coverage
surrounding Mr. Epstein has been inaccurate and in some
instances, defamatory, I would like to suggest that you
send me any facutal questions so that I can provide you
with accurate responses.
I am also available to speak with you. My number is
Thank you,
Jay
***********************************************************
The information contained in this communication is
confidential, may be attorney-client privileged, may
constitute inside information, and is intended only for
the use of the addressee. It is the property of
Kirkland & Ellis LLP or Kirkland & Ellis International LLP.
Unauthorized use, disclosure or copying of this
communication or any part thereof is strictly prohibited
and may be unlawful. If you have received this
communication in error, please notify us immediately by
return e-mail or by e-mail to postmastergkirkland.com, and
destroy this communication and all copies thereof,
including all attachments.
***********************************************************
This e-mail, including attachments, is intended for the person(s)
or company named and may contain confidential and/or legally
privileged information. Unauthorized disclosure, copying or use of
this information may be unlawful and is prohibited. If you are not
the intended recipient, please delete this message and notify the
sender.
***********************************************************
The information contained in this communication is
confidential, may be attorney-client privileged, may
constitute inside information, and is intended only for
the use of the addressee. It is the property of
Kirkland & Ellis LLP or Kirkland & Ellis International LLP.
Unauthorized use, disclosure or copying of this
communication or any part thereof is strictly prohibited
and may be unlawful. If you have received this
communication in error, please notify us immediately by
return e-mail or by e-mail to [email protected], and
destroy this communication and all copies thereof,
HOUSE OVERSIGHT 031984
including all attachments.
***********************************************************
--
***********************************************************
The information contained in this communication is
confidential, may be attorney-client privileged, may
constitute inside information, and is intended only for
the use of the addressee. It is the property of
Jeffrey Epstein
Unauthorized use, disclosure or copying of this
communication or any part thereof is strictly prohibited
and may be unlawful. If you have received this
communication in error, please notify us immediately by
return e-mail or by e-mail to [email protected], and
destroy this communication and all copies thereof,
including all attachments. copyright -all rights reserved
HOUSE OVERSIGHT 031985

[admin]

HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_031986
txt
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fo/9bq6uj0p ... tracking=1

From:
Sent: 2/6/2011 9:35:06 PM
To: [email protected]
Subject: Re: You should see this movie/documentary
seems very one-sided and as if the makers didn't quite see the bigger picture
i'm not sure the finance industry really had too much of a choice
-----Original Message-----
From: Jeffrey Epstein <[email protected]>
To:
Sent: Sun, Feb 6, 2011 5:27 am
Subject: Re: You should see this movie/documentary
it is very unfair, and misrepresents tons of inf
On Sun, Feb 6, 2011 at 3:26 AM, wrote:
Inside Job (2010)
NYT Critics' PickThis movie has been designated a Critic's Pick by the film reviewers of The New York
Times.
Sony Pictures Classics
Henry Paulson, Ben Bernanke and Timothy Geithner in the documentary "Inside Job."
Who Maimed the Economy, and How
By A. 0. SCOTT
"Inside Job," a sleek, briskly paced film whose title suggests a heist movie, is the story of a crime
without punishment, of an outrage that has so far largely escaped legal sanction and societal stigma. The
betrayal of public trust and collective values that Mr. Ferguson chronicles was far more brazen and
damaging than the adultery in Nathaniel Hawthorne's novel, which treated Hester more as scapegoat than
villain.
The gist of this movie, which begins in a mood of calm reflection and grows angrier and more incredulous
as it goes on, is unmistakably punitive. The density of information and the complexity of the subject
matter make "Inside Job" feel like a classroom lecture at times, but by the end Mr. Ferguson has summoned
the scourging moral force of a pulpit-shaking sermon. That he delivers it with rigor, restraint and good
humor makes his case all the more devastating.
He is hardly alone in making it. Numerous journalists have published books and articles retracing the
paths that led the world economy to the precipice two years ago. The deregulation of the financial
services industry in the 1980s and '90s; the growing popularity of complex and risky derivatives; the
real estate bubble and the explosion of subprime lending — none of these developments were exactly
secret. On the contrary, they were celebrated as vindications of the power and wisdom of markets.
Accordingly, Mr. Ferguson recycles choice moments of triumphalism, courtesy of Lawrence H. Summers,
George W. Bush, Alan Greenspan and various cable television ranters and squawkers.
Even as stock indexes soared and profits swelled, there were always at least a few investors, economists
and government officials who warned that the frenzied speculation was leading to the abyss. Some of these
prophets without honor show up in front of Mr. Ferguson's camera, less to gloat than to present, once
again, the analyses that were dismissed and ignored by their peers for so long.
Dozens of interviews — along with news clips and arresting aerial shots of New York, Iceland and other
disaster areas — are folded into a clear and absorbing history, narrated by Matt Damon. The music (an
opening song, "Big Time," by Peter Gabriel, and a score by Alex Heffes) and the clean wide-screen
cinematography provide an aesthetic polish that is welcome for its own sake and also important to the
movie's themes. The handsomely lighted and appointed interiors convey a sense of the rarefied, privileged
worlds in which the Wall Street operators and their political enablers flourished, and the elegance of
the presentation also subliminally bolsters the film's authority. This is not a piece of ragged
muckraking or breathless advocacy. It rests its outrage on reason, research and careful argument.
The same was true of Mr. Ferguson's previous documentary, "No End in Sight," which focused on
catastrophic policies carried out in Iraq by President George W. Bush's administration just after the
overthrow of Saddam Hussein. But whereas that film concentrated on a narrow view of a complex subject —
the conduct of the war rather than the at least equally controversial rationale for fighting it — "Inside
HOUSE OVERSIGHT 031986
Job" offers a sweeping synthesis, going as far back as the Reagan administration and as far afield as
Iceland in its anatomy of the financial crisis.
Perhaps unsurprisingly, many of the highest-profile players declined to be interviewed. Mr. Summers
appears only in news footage, and none of his predecessors or successors as Treasury secretary — not
Robert E. Rubin or Henry M. Paulson Jr. or Timothy F. Geithner — submit to Mr. Ferguson's questions. Nor
do any of the top executives at Goldman Sachs or the other big banks. Most of the interviewees are, at
least from the perspective of the filmmaker, friendly witnesses, adding fuel to the director's
comprehensive critique of the way business has been done in the United States and the other advanced
capitalist countries for the past two decades.
Both American political parties are indicted; "Inside Job" is not simply another belated settling of
accounts with Mr. Bush and his advisers, though they are hardly ignored. The scaling back of government
oversight and the weakening of checks on speculative activity by banks began under Reagan and continued
during the Clinton administration. And with each administration the market in derivatives expanded, and
alarms about the dangers of this type of investment were ignored. Raghuram Rajan, chief economist at the
International Monetary Fund, presented a paper in 2005 warning of a "catastrophic meltdown" and was
mocked as a "Luddite" by Mr. Summers.
Meanwhile, some investment bankers — at Goldman Sachs in particular — were betting against the positions
they were pushing on their customers. An elaborate house of cards had been constructed in which bad
consumer loans were bundled into securities, which, were certified as sound by rating agencies paid by
the banks and then insured via credit-default swaps. One risky bet was stacked on top of another, and in
retrospect the collapse of the whole edifice, along with the loss of jobs, homes, pensions and political
confidence, seems inevitable.
How did this happen? Mr. Ferguson is no conspiracy theorist; nor is he inclined toward structural or
systemic explanations. Markets are not like tectonic plates, shifting on their own. Visible hands write
laws and make deals, and in this case a combination of warped values and groupthink seems to have driven
very intelligent men (and they were mostly men) toward folly. In addition to business and government, Mr.
Ferguson aims his critique at academia, suggesting that the discipline of economics and more than a few
prominent economists were corrupted by consulting fees, seats on boards of directors and membership in
the masters of the universe club.
When he challenges some of these professors, in particular those who held positions of responsibility in
the White House or in the Federal Reserve, they are reduced to stammering obfuscation — Markets are
complicated! Who could have predicted? I don't see any conflict of interest — and occasionally provoked
to testiness. Mr. Ferguson, for his part, cannot always contain his incredulity or rein in his sarcasm.
Occasionally his voice pipes up from off camera, saying things like, "You can't be serious!"
But it is hard to imagine a movie more serious, and more urgent, than "Inside Job." There are a few
avenues that might have been explored more thoroughly, in particular the effects of the crisis on
ordinary, non-Wall-Street-connected workers and homeowners. The end of the film raises a disturbing
question, as Mr. Damon exhorts viewers to demand changes in the status quo so that the trends associated
with unchecked speculation of the kind that caused the last crisis — rising inequality, neglect of
productive capacity, endless cycles of boom and bust — might be reversed.
This call to arms makes you wonder why anger of the kind so eloquently expressed in "Inside Job" has been
so inchoate. And through no fault of its own, the film may leave you dispirited as well as enraged. Its
fate is likely to be that of other documentaries: praised in some quarters, nitpicked in others and
shrugged off by those who need its message most. Which is a shame.
"Inside Job" is rated PG-13 (Parents strongly cautioned). Some drug and sex references and pervasive
obscenity, though not the verbal kind.
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