PART 3 ANTI-ANTI-NAZI BARBARIAN HORDES ARE KNOCKING DOWN THE

[admin]

Pepe Escobar: Yemen Joins the War, and the Entire Middle East Could Go Up in Flames
Glenn Diesen
Jul 14, 2026

Pepe Escobar discusses the escalations and widening of the war against Iran, which now threatens to set the entire Middle East in flames. Escobar is a journalist, a political analyst, and author.



Transcript

Welcome back to the program. Today we are joined by Pepe Escobar, a journalist and political analyst to discuss what appears to be the entire Middle East
being thrown into massive conflict. Uh, thank you for coming back on. We see now, yeah, the US and Iran appear at
least to be move moving back towards allout war. The Iranians are considering pulling out of the memorandum of understanding completely. Yemen is
striking Saudi Arabia. Iran apparently striking Saudi Arabia. Yemen might also
shut down the Red Sea. Uh well, essentially the whole region appears
possibly to be plunged into uh one big fire. And uh even now we see some
attacks from Iraqi uprisings against Kuwaitis on the other side of the
border. I mean uh this is yeah really doesn't look good. Uh what do you make of all of this? I'm sorry that's a lot
of things at once, but how how are you assessing the situation? We can go into the citics.
Glenn, I I love your diplomatic shorthand. It does not look good.
[laughter]
We could expand this to the whole planet. I love it because this is the it's the best definition of uh what lies
ahead. Yes, it's extremely distressing, predictable, but uh we we we knew this was going to
happen because essentially the American strategy at the moment they were trying to play divide and rule with the axis of
resistance and obviously you have the opposite uh effect. The axis of resistance is more and more
wellcoordinated including for instance Iraq and we could see that in terms last week the most
extraordinary funeral rights in living memory anywhere
2 minutesand they were uniting Shiites in Iran and in Iraq. So the level of of uh
understanding, grief, respect, uh national solidarity that we saw in Najaf and Carbala which
are two places where you step in Najaf and and Carbala, you feel how powerful
it is spiritually was totally coordinated to what we saw in Tehran, in K and in Mashad. So over 40 million
people altogether.
So, and this is something that I confirmed with some of our Iranian friends and they all say the same. Now,
there is a national consensus and it revolves around the notion the concept
not necessarily in pedestrian terms of revenge essentially. there is no possible accommodation with the Americans period.
And that's why if you if you talk to the average Iranian aboutou no run of understanding they all say no
they were trying to fool us and this consensus arrived at the top according to our best information
and this means the national security council this means not only the political factor includes presidentkin
Ishi galibah all these figures that are now well known all over the world but the top IRGC commanders. So what are
they going to do about it? So now they're going to this is exactly what they're doing now. They're playing Trump
and don't mess with the Persians. They know how to play anybody considering their dynastic history, all
the empires, all the invasions that they, you know, h how how do they control invasions and attacks,
how that this national solidarity coaleses into something very very strong and they get even more powerful. So the
most uh distressing aspect of it all for all of us who are following it is the escalation ladder is back. This is
something you and myself many others were predicting that it would happen.
But how far will this go?
and uh extra elements added one day uh after the other makes it makes the whole
thing even more volatile. For instance, we cannot say with 100% certainty that
Saudi Arabia attacked Yemen in Sana airport. This could have been a false flag. This could have been
a rogue uh organization, anything there's and the Saudis have been extremely circumspect
uh about it. But what's immensely interesting is that the Yemenes were
waiting for it essentially a few days before uh
when the Mahan air plane was approaching Sana International Airport which by the
way is practically destroyed by the Israelis last year. Uh it's where I landed when I went to Yemen last year
when the airport was still functioning and Yemen uh airways they still had three planes. These three planes were
later bombed by the Israelis. They have zero planes now. So this was Iran breaking the siege imposed on Yemen by
Saudi Arabia for 11 years. This was a huge huge thing. So the first Mahan air
flight went there to collect a Yemeni delegation to take them to Thran for the funeral ceremonies related to the burial of Ayatami.
And then there was this flight back from Tehran to S uh taking a lot of Yemenes
plus some other Yemenes who were in Thran etc. 250 people more or less was an air bus
filled to the brink. And when uh the Mahan airflight was approaching SAT uh there was a bombing of the runway. So
the pilot under extreme circumstances the guy was wow amazing stuff. So he did
a 90 degree turn uh before landing and he landed in Heda which is not an airport anymore because
Heda was also bombed by the Americans last year and by some uh I would say intervention from
above the runway of Heda finalized only a few days ago.
So that allowed the Mahan airflight to land in Hoda.
So it's not established if this was really a Saudi attack. This could have
been an attack and the most probable uh explanation, an attack from the puppet
government in Aden, the port in the south which is supported by Saudi Arabia. The problem is they don't have an air force and they don't have missiles.
So where where do the where do the planes and the missiles come from? The Yemenes uh they identified a military
base in Saudi Arabia saying look the the jets they took off from this uh um
military base. So they bombed a civilian airport and a military airport. So it's 2 to one and that's extraordinary.
Glenn, you remember that uh the Iranians took what two almost two months to do two to one against American attacks or
the Yemenist took one day and everybody understood the message. If you mess with them, it's going to be 2
to1 everywhere. And obviously the Saudis are now terrified. They don't know how to control that. If if this was really a
Saudi initiative, they boxed themselves in. So this is this is beyond stupid geopolitically
right and geoeconomically for them. If it was not who did it and what for?
Well, of course we know who might have done it. The usual suspects to once again uh divide and rule all across the
Arab world which is what they do everywhere. So this is just one detail among many and one day after another we
have these and there is always this lingering impression in the background that the Iranians are looking at all that and
they said yes we can um we can go for it because we have all the time in the world they the Americans they don't have it.
Well, I remember the first [clears throat] time around when we when well um when we were all in this war and it was well essentially an allout war,
it were still some um steps up that escalation ladder. So people were questioning whether or not Yemen would join in on the fight because that would
be quite detrimental. That is if you close off uh the the Red Sea, the problem in the Red Sea. Sure.
Yeah. But but now of course this is what's happening. And uh so it appears we might see an escalation far beyond
what we saw uh last time. And I was just wondering how do you see the significance of this? And also what is
the American thinking here? Because they you know now we're blocking off the Red Sea's blocked off and the Americans are now reimposing their blockade on the
straight of moose. They say Trump is a bit all over the place. He said all all ships should pay 20% fees to the United
States. uh who wants to transit through the straight of her moose. This is important for Trump because he wants to assert Iran doesn't control it. America is the you know in his words the guardian of the straight of her moose.
But now he's coming back and he's saying well we're we're not going to put the 20% fee anyways. I mean how is this from one day to another? Where's the
consistency? There's I mean this this can't be on purpose because why would you say this on day one if you're not going to follow through on day two? I
mean it's quite wild. But how do you see this shutting down all these key waterways? I mean, this is these are the arteries of international trade. This is what keeps the global economy alive.
What are they doing here?
Well, when it comes to the president of the United States, Glenn, he cannot follow what goes on in his brain from one second to another. He has no
strategy. He has no tactics. He doesn't read. He doesn't listen to anybody. He has no clue what he got himself in.
So it's obvious that from one day to another you have this completely absurd viferations on truth social
and that's a problem because he controls the new cycle people read this in the middle of the Sahara desert literally
everybody and then the talk is about a look at what he said today and he goes on so he manipulates the new cycle
everywhere but nobody is basically pointing to the He the heart of the
matter in fact no tactics no strategy he's cornered he's desperate he knows it
and there's no way out and the only offramp that he had which was offered by the mediators working 24/7 for weeks was
theou which by the way he signed officially his signature is there he signed it in Versai uh not very far from
where I am Well, that was obviously uh and that is now being identified for what it is by the
Iranian leadership, civilian and military. He was just playing for time.
The problem is he cannot play for time any longer because all those numbers about strate uh strategic petroleum
reserve there are all sorts of projections. I I received for instance one uh report a few week
uh 10 days ago or so. I wrote a column about that and this report was basically saying that the ultra ultra limit date
for mega red lies appearing is mid August. We are already mid July and there are some others who are saying
this could be between end of July and beginning of August. So he's fighting
against himself, against the American economy and against the global economy at the same time because he simply cannot think strategically. And of
course there's the ego element which absolutely uh it's the overarching
h imperative for Trump. He hates to be humiliated and he's being humiliated by
the strategic defeat which is the result of the war that he ordered. So can you imagine in the mind of a basically a for
a grown-up fouryear-old how does that feel?
And you can see in his uh inconsistencies in the you know the fits of you know
childish fits of rage as you mentioned no consistency whatsoever anything he
writes says etc bragging uh and of course uh
rage you can you can feel there's so much rage behind it. He has threatened to exterminate Iranian civilization at
least four or five times this past few weeks. seriously exterminate everything
literally you know uh and where is this leading and everybody that
has been try and everybody I mean literally everybody not only the Pakistani mediators but the Qataris the Turks the Egyptians everybody the Omanis
everybody who's been trying to okay we cannot allow theou to be derailed this is the last chance salute if this thing
is derailed then It's all out war. And here we are again in another escalation ladder uh provoked by him and discarding
the only possible uh mechanism that could give him a sort
of a relatively dignified exit if he follows at least the basic points of the 14point.
No, they broke almost everything.
o the Iranians they are looking at it and they said what's the point? Okay. So we we can and this is now the commitments now are bilateral. If they
break it we also break it. This is not unilateral anymore. So that's why there is this um
um it's practically a consensus among the top leadership in that there's no pointing about the ceasefire has already been broken. Theou is dead. That's it.
We should exit and do our own thing. But this is not a final decision and we are expecting some extra information between
today and tomorrow exactly let's say how much longer the Iranians
will tolerate uh American attacks and this is a key absolute key point because
publicly they have already said via members of the Maji some members of the security council if there is another uh American
attack, we exit the NPT and we all know what that means if that
happens. So this is already being discussed and there is already a a plan B for the Iranian leadership. Okay, we
exit the NPT. That's it. And there's nothing the Americans can do about that.
So this is something that Larry Johnson and myself were trying to get this sure fire confirmation
maximum tomorrow or by the end of the week. It's very complicated. The guy who passed this information to us is a guy
that is in the inner circle of a leader Maba Kame. That's why this is so so
important. But he but he told us via his uh uh intermediaries uh you should not
publish this as a fact. This is being considered but it's already in itself a bombshell
right and of course this may have leaked to uh war alago and Washington. So if can you imagine if that happens Glenn?
And in fact the whole um fiction that the the Americans have been trying to to sell domestically to the whole world
which is about the Iranian nuclear program collapses completely. We all know the real reason for the war especially since
the war went downhill from the beginning. control of oil checkpoints which they already lost. The US will
never control the straight of Hormuz again. This is really uh Iran's uh nuclear bomb.
They don't even need a nuclear program.
They already have a nuclear bomb which is the control of Horus. And that's what makes the fouryear-old president of the
United States even more desperate. He brought this on himself.
This the problem again. It be I know that this began as a war on to topple the Iranian government. Yeah. To destroy
either Iran or just put in a puppet government. So something along the lines of a Libya, Syria, but um but it's
changed fundamentally as you said. Now it's about who can control this key waterway, the threat of Hormuz. And it just it seems like there could be
win-win situations if there was some diplomatic efforts to establish some kind of a yeah administrative body. But
but but it just seems to me at least impression I get from Iran these days is that they don't think diplomacy is possible anymore because as well
essentially they're dealing with savages. And I don't use that word lightly but what what I mean is they're their opponent they're doing you know
mass murder of civilians. uh they backed the essentially evil genocide in Gaza.
19 minutesAs you said, they regularly threaten to exterminate a nation of 93 million people. This is quite the extreme
behavior and at the same time there's no possibility of actually talking and having diplomacy. I mean they've made diplomatic deals. They had the JCPOA.
The Americans didn't implement their side and then they walked away. Then they had two wars within 6 months
between uh well yeah about 6 months in which uh they were supposed to be closed a deal which they just you know
essentially used it to trick the Iranians to put down get their guard down so they can do surprise attacks.
Now you have theou even as it was signed Trump suggested it wasn't about any reparations you know and he was
threatening to attack them again all these things which were violated while he was signing it. I mean it it you know
if you also put in the wider context what's happening around the world this is you know what you see with the war on Russia as well in 2014 you saw the
Europeans agreeing to unity government they they just walked away from that you know hours later when they toppled the
government you saw them signing the Minsk agreement which was just a effort to buy time now they're talking about let's have a ceasefire to the end the
war they're already openly speaking among themselves yet now then we can replenish uh Ukraine with missiles. We
can uh you know build up the military again. We can move NATO troops into Ukraine. So no one's looking for peace.
It's always diplomacy is just a game. So you have this savagery on a whole new level. Diplomacy is dead. Surely the
Chinese must be observing this as well reaching the conclusion that uh you know from now on might is right. There is no
there is no international law. There's no rules. there's no diplomatic there's not any deals we can sign which were actually lay the rules for how nations
can interact. This is um extremely dangerous though and it it's just hard
to see how the world will look like after this war. But but on that do we see any pathway here? I mean no not with
the Americans because no one will trust what they're signing anyways. I think everyone who looked when they signed theou and then wrote it and then sorry
read it they knew that the Americans were not going to implement this. They weren't going to pay 300 billion. They were not going to unfreeze the sanctions. they weren't going to, you
know, I mean, and the sanctions unfreeze all the assets of Iran. I mean, there was nonsense. But, but are there any other deals you see possible? Like, can
after this war, Oman and Iran, for example, come to an agreement or would they have to wrestle themselves out of
the, you know, the the control of the United States first?
Well, there are, let's say, uh, not an overall overarching agreement. It's impossible because that would involve
the United States and we both agree according to our good friend Sergey Labra that the United States is
nonaggreement capable and they have been proven it over and over again but in
West Asia yes because in West Asia the main players they want some sort of new
accommodation. The problem is how they're going to deal with the Americans.
For instance, the Pakistanis, they are involved in the mitigation for several reasons, but one of them is their own
security from South Asia to West Asia and the possibility that they can be the
providers of a new security umbrella to West Asia because of the military pack they already have with Saudi Arabia. So
for instance uh a few weeks ago Munir went to Riad to basically resolidify
their military pact basically telling MBS in person look uh if you're looking for a new uh security architecture in
West Asia we are your guys and you know it. So how are they going to pull that
off? And of course to tell that to NBS they had to tell the Iranians first.
First first of all because they were intermediating between the Iranians and the Americans. Second very very good
relations between the top leadership in Islamabad and for instance when uh Munir goes to Thran he talks to leader Mhtava face to face.
There are very few people anywhere including from inside Iran that can do that.
The Pakistanis, you know, in the the whole Switzerland Kabuki, the Pakistanis offered security for the Iranians. We
Larry and I were reported about that in detail.
And the information that we have from the people in the on the table fact the mediators is that look everybody wants
some sort of deal whatever that is. The problem is of course how can you convince Trump that a deal is good for
him because of his uh megalog maniac narcissism.
So if there is no deal with the Americans, there is quite possible that there will be a deal in terms of a new security architecture which would
involve Pakistan as the coordinator. Uh Saudi Arabia, Qatar would jump in eventually later some other GCC members.
The UAE is a basket case. The mediators for instance they told us that the UAE it's going to happen but it's going to
take at least a few months to convince them that you know this is the the way history is is going and of course Turkey
supports that very very important and Egypt could be part of that security umbrella as well. So this is a
possibility and all these uh uh players involved in these negotiations this is what they want the pro everybody knows
uh what would that entail uh renewed American fury but what can what would the Americans do bomb Riad well they
could [laughter] nothing is outside of the realm of the possible when you you're thinking about
Trump and uh Sandcom at the moment but uh depending on how this will be this
will depend on how Saudi will maneuver but now we have we coming back to the beginning of our conversation now we
have this Saudi Yemen immense problem resurfacing in the
middle of all that which is the last thing that the Saudis need at the moment and that's why uh you know some of us
were thinking This has to have been a false flag because it goes against Saudi interests
26 minutesto go against Yemen now at the moment knowing that Yemen they have the missiles that count. They can block the
Bab al-Mandab. They can attack the Yamu pipeline. They can block the Red Sea. You name it.
So why do it now? It makes absolutely no sense. Obviously the American spin which
you see in those uh IDF MOSAD things in the US posing as journalism is that uh
NBS uh was under pressure by Trump or vice versa. MBS called Trump and I said
look there is a problem with Yemen. Do you allow me to b their airport? Which is completely absurd.
So we still don't know the origin of this bombing of Sana airrop because this turns the whole thing upside down all
over again in fact and to the detriment of Saudi interests.
It makes no sense whatsoever. Right? And considering that uh the Saudis from the
beginning they were part of this GCC block that wanted some sort of accommodation with Iran. The you
remember Glenn that the first Islamabad meeting way before the Islamabad actual meeting where Vance came from the US and
Galibbah came from Thran was uh Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Egypt. This was the beginning of it all.
And then of course the Pakistan went to China. They talked to W one said look guys you have to do better than that and
that culminated in the Islamabad 1.0 meeting face to face or almost face to face because they never talked to each
other. So Saudi Arabia has been involved from the beginning in let's call it the
peace process and the MU. Why would they blow it up by attacking Yemen out of the blue like this?
Yeah. Know it is strange. And do you do you have do you have a theory about that or h how would you interpret it?
I don't know. It is hard to see why it would make sense. I mean, you know, when people look at the map of the Middle East, they see this huge Saudi Arabia
and this tiny Yemen below. But uh but again it doesn't that that doesn't mean anything that is for first of all that you know the Saudi Arabia I think they
got like 38 million people Yemen has more than 40. So Yemen is actually a larger population but in Saudi Arabia as well about 40% of those are foreign
nationals. You know they're not Yeah. So so they're the ones who can leave if things becomes too unstable. So really you know the Saudis have like 23
million. Yemenes has almost twice the population and they have also very young population. They've been also massacred
now for what since 2015. So they've been uh you know so they're battleh hardened.
They you know they're ready. And furthermore you know as you said it's it doesn't make any sense for Saudi Arabia because uh all of their energy
facilities or many of them are uh you know within reach of Yemen's drones. Yemen. Yes.
And and they can shut down the Red Sea.
I mean, if you're Saudi Arabia, you can you can transit through the straight of Hormuz or the Red Sea. If you're going to make enemy out of both sides, shut down both of these maritime corridors.
You, you know, you can have your energy fields destroyed. You can have your uh you know, the arteries you need to to sell your oil can be shut down. I mean,
none of this makes much sense. So I don't know why they would go all in on on this war but uh no it's um it is
strange but uh but but but the conflict is also taking a much wider not just the conflict now between Yemen and Saudi
Arabia as I said the whole region is being set on fire but only within the last we see in Kuwait been hit Qatar Bahrain Jordan I mean what we're
seeing is missile systems being destroyed radars you know the drone command and control. Uh it's quite extensive though what the Iranians are
hitting now. So I mean h how are you seeing this the development there on the battlefield because if the US decides okay this is
too much let's go back to diplomacy. I mean I I can't imagine why why the Iranians would accept this. They know what diplomacy means. It means you know
the Americans you know string them along. They you know they the buildups of missiles again prepare for another
strike. It just seems that the hawks in Iran were proven right. There won't be any peace. Any diplomacy is just a
fraud. Something to Yeah. trick the Iranians so America can regroup and strike again from a more favorable
vantage point. I I just How do you see this war possibly spreading? because uh sorry there's a lot of questions here but again you see Saudi Arabia you see
Yemen I as I said earlier you see now fighting of some Iraqi militia on the border of Kuwait I've heard people like
Mandi say that at end of this war Kuwait might not be an independent country anymore a lot of things it will bring to Iraq in fact
yeah I'm just wondering how do you see the again we don't have a crystal ball there's too many variables to make any clear predictions but but we do see some
movements of possible directions that the region could shape by now.
Well, what's striking, Glenn, is how realist the the Iranian top brass have
been. Uh there is a lot of spin in America media once again that ah there's division at the top. This is
This is something that we can reconfirm with our Iranian friends and sources.
No, there are two vectors. One is the diplomatic uh negotiations on the table
vector where we find Pashkin, Galibah, Farakshi etc. and of course the IRGC
vector including old hardcore IRGC commanders and the new generation.
They the consensus between them is around the figure of Moshava Kam and
that makes it even more intriguing because he's the invisible leader and that's extraordinary because he's
commanding attention and respect all across Iran
by remaining invisible and it's only uh some statements uh the communications with uh internally and with the few
forests that he talk everything is analog face to face when uh something uh reaches him uh concerning for instance
theou uh then only a few days or weeks later we actually know what happened. I I have
a very good example for instance we only learned a few days ago that when
he ca uh when it comes to theou from the beginning he said no I don't agree with it but
uh I will defer to a decision by the supreme national security council there are 13 members
two or three are uh let's reformist or more liberal or whatever most of them are hardline
So Mustaba basically told them look if you reach a solid majority he was maybe
thinking about okay uh 10 to2 11 to three something like that okay I'll give you the green light to go with
the M OU but this was not his decision from the beginning from the from the beginning he thought like his dad by the
way that it's impossible to have any sort of agreement with Yaras and He has been proven correct once again.
So this is for instance, nobody knew about this in the beginning. We only learned this only a few days ago.
So uh he is in full control and and the people that we have access to that pass
information to us, Larry and myself. Uh some of them they have access to the inner circle of Bhava and they said he's in total control of everything.
So you know he is the decider and very important now the Mtaba era started on Friday.
Thursday was the burial of so let's say mandate for good total without
even the ghost of his dad behind him started only this past Friday. So he is going to imprint his mark immediately
and he has consensus and the consensus is on the uh uh diplomatic political side and on the military RGC side.
So uh what we are getting from from people who have access to uh his inner
circle is that is it's as if okay we cannot put it this in a 100 100% crystal
clear terms. It's as if the leadership in Iran is betting that Trump is so cornered that sooner or
later he was going to have to come back to the negotiating table.
But Iran wants to set the conditions for this return to the negotiating table. America's going to have to pay a price.
We still don't know what kind of price that is. Destruction, total destruction of all American bases in West Asia.
Maybe this could be the price.
uh even more economic pain because this could be uh uh organized closely with the Ansarala leadership in Sana. Okay.
Block the straight uh block the Bab al-Manddev and block Saudi Arabia. That's it. in
terms in terms of oil reaching to and in fact one of the leaders of Ansarala publicly I think two days ago he said
what could happen if we did that well oil will be 150 200 the sky is the limit literally
and then that's that's the collapse of the global economy no no question about that so uh they don't want to play this
card yet but they can so the American plan which was to divide and rule with
the axis of resistance is unifying the ax axis of resistance even more.
37 minutesMeanwhile, by the way, Hezbollah continues to kick IDF's act asses in uh Lebanon. The Iraqi militias are on the next level already.
There you go. So, so the Americans are isolated apart from the block. What are they going to blockade? Let's see how
the blockade 2.0 zero is going to work and of course in terms of disaster for
the global economy even more because Iran said nobody transits through hormuse if it's not through our uh
Persian Gulf authority and the combination with the IRGC navy and in our territorial waters everywhere else
off limits how the Americans are going to uh interfere they
Yeah, this I I would think well assume that uh if the Americans are forced back to the negotiation table that the
Iranians would insist on some buying that is for the um for the Americans for
example to uh release you know all Iranian assets only as the buying cost for sitting down and talking because
otherwise there's yeah you you can't just go back and forth like this and and then they're so open about this as well. I mean JD Vance
made a comment that well you know the MOU was good. We opened up the straight we got some oil flowing again to the markets which were starved. So they're
quite open that it wasn't meant to be peace. We're we're buying time here. So I just again my impression from Iran is
they they're not going to let this uh the US have this escalation control when they decide when the war starts when we take a pause when we go back in at what
intensity should be the war be fought. I mean this is a lot of you know the Americans they can't fight the war on all conditions. So it's very strange to
allow uh for the Iranians to allow the Americans uh this luxury of choosing how the war should be fought according to you know how it best suits the
Americans. Um but uh but this must be frustrating for the Americans because you know a key strategy for maritime
hedgeimmons be it Britain or the US thereafter is always to control the main waterways. That is the main waterways. Yes.
Yes. So when you contain Russia, you go after the Baltic Sea, which they did by expanding NATO. You control the Black Sea, blockading this by again, that's
NATO, why instigated the Ukraine war to get the Russians out of Crimea, the Arctic, of course, to cut off Russia
there. This is why after World War II, the US set up this dual aisle ch island chains to blockade the the Chinese and
suddenly to have this water corridor the straight of moose under the control of the Iranians which America you know think very little about the Iranians.
They see them as you know backwards almost. This is the idea that the Iranians would defeat America. This is very humiliating for them because you
know for them they are the civilized ones. they are the superpower and the Iranians, you know. Um, yeah, this is
quite is fascinating to see that this is happening. I mean, I know that from Russia to China, even in Iran, they
they're quite surprised how this has played out. Uh, it's quite amazing.
It is. Glenn, can you imagine that a mid-ranking power under sanctions for 47 years managed to inflict a strategic
defeat in the greatest armad in the history of Star Wars in a little over two months? Who could possibly imagine this only a few months ago?
And that's exactly where we are now. So, it's no wonder psychologically for them.
They simply cannot. They don't even understand what happened and how could it happen. And now it's practically irreversible because the straight of our
moose from now on is an Iranian choke point. Period. And even worse, this is a
defeat of the petro dollar. This was a war also for controlling a key oil checkpoint and imposing the petro dollar
because the regime change in Iran immediately after that will be back to the petro dollar. So they lost on all fronts. They lost geopolitically,
militarily and geoeconomic. It's too much for them to bear. No, it's off the charts in terms of the the trauma.
They cannot possibly deal with it. And I'm not even talk about Trump. Trump is a lowly emissary, you know, he's like a grifter. He's like a a big pocket. I'm talking about the American elites.
No wonder they are catatonic.
Yeah, that's what I meant. It's a hard situation because they're in a position where they can't win militarily, but also the peace which is forced upon them
is something they can't live with. It's they cannot live with the death warrant for the American empire. So, it's quite yeah interesting
times. But let let me just ask a last question though about this uh this new this new obsession in Washington that
the Iranians will kill Trump. I mean, I'm I'm not sure if this is paranoia or if it's real. Uh, one thing you can say
for sure though is that if this is real, uh, is certainly something that the Americans have helped to normalize
themselves. that is the way they go and assassinate foreign leaders, the kidnapping foreign leaders. Uh for now
them to suggest that oh no our leaders are somehow you know untouchable. You can't you can't harm them. I mean I I
think it's a horrible horrible development when political leaders are being targeted and killed. But but this is how the Americans measured success in
Iran. Look, we're murdering all their leaders. Uh you know whoopy this is um you know this is a very dangerous development. But of course it it could
turn around that now the Iranians see the same. Well, now we need vengeance.
43 minutesWe'll kill your political leaders. But again, I'm not sure if this is even real. But uh that's what I wanted to ask you. How are you reading this situation?
Uh well, there's a metaphysical spiritual religious reading and there is, I would say, a pedestrian everyday life reading.
Well, the Americas normalize political assassinations, the Americans and the Israelis. So it's absolutely which as you as you you said correctly it's
dangerous and frightening. In fact it's part of the uh no rules international system. No rules whatsoever
international disorder. Let's put it this way. The previous was the rules-based international order that we can change anytime we want. Now it's
absolute disorder, chaos and involves political assassinations and it's completely normalized across
the spectrum and sold by western mainstream media as absolutely normal.
The Iranian mindset which is conditioned by Shiite
uh spiritual uh understanding and theology as well. It's the notion of revenge.
Uh I was talking about this with with people in Iran these past few days and they say there is a universal consensus
among Iranian society now that we need revenge.
But this is a very very large philosophical discussion. This could take years. This could take centuries.
But it's there. We one day we will have our revenge on the people who wronged
us. And this particular character, whether he's going to live a few more
years or not, he killed our leaders and he killed our supreme leader. So obviously there's got to be payback. So
45 minutesonce again, this could take forever or this could be, [laughter] let's say, if if we go on the Hollywood
Netflix road, uh, an infiltrated commando somewhere. No, no, that Uranus don't do that kind of thing. But this is
going to be a in the back of his mind, he knows that there is a death sentence against him. So this will turn if he's
already discombobulated. Glenn, can you imag can can you imagine from now on?
Which brings us to uh accidents. Uh maybe there's there's going to be a
sudden illness missile one day hitting him. Who knows?
Just like the one that landed in Kiev and a certain wararmonger from one day to another simply disappeared.
So anything is possible. But the Iranians, they see this as a as a long-term battle and justice. For
justice to prevail, there's got to be revenge. And we were wronged and we will exercise our revenge according to when we decide to do it.
Yeah, I was going to say for all of all countries for the US to go to war with Iran can pro probably to be the worst
one. I mean this for for many reasons as you said now not only is it a country of 93 million people who has prepared
itself for this war. You also have a country you know with the massive coastline and the mountain range you know is built like a fortress and also
as you just suggested the whole Shiite martyrdom culture where they
celebrate those who you know sacrifice themsel uh in the fight.
This is uh I mean all of this should be accounted for and also that they as we often ignored I think at least in the
western media the fact that the Iranians see this an existential threat. That is that if if they lose this they will end up like Syria. They will end up like
Libya. They will be destroyed. So they have everything to lose. But if they can win they will uh they will essentially
put Iran on top in the region. They will shake off the sanctions. the region countries of the region would have to readjust and uh accommodate Iran. It can
essentially assert its own security, its own economic development. I mean everything to lose or everything to win. You have
this massive incentive why they're willing to absorb any pain in order to push back the Americans and they have the capabilities.
It's just it's so beyond absurd that the US even went to this war and the fact that now the main objective for the
Americans is to open the street or moose which was open before the war it shows what a disaster this has been uh yet you
know this there can't be an admission of this you know especially for Trump I mean he's the strong man but yeah no
it's a it's a real mess they got themselves into and uh I you know I I just keep thinking back when they
started bombing initially Iran, how the media narrative was all focused on, oh well, they're liberating Iranians, you know, yes, there might be some killing,
but at least now the regime is gone and the uh women will, you know, take to the streets and be free. The public will
just rush out and topple their government, you know, cheering for, you know, waving American flags, whatever.
It's how how ridiculous this was. And yet how every single news outlet war was pushing the same stupid
uh narratives. I mean it's we do this every time. I mean how many forever wars are we going to start? And now we're going to go against the Iranians, the
Russians, the Chinese. I mean this is so suicidal. It's uh Yeah. No, it's very depressing. Very depressing.
It's very depressing. I agree with you completely. And um once again, if you don't study history, you repeat historical mistakes over and over again.
So we have uh an administration of low-life grifters, illiterate people
which never had the history of the Persian Empire among other examples. They were, you
know, they they they should have known that the Persians repelled anything that was thrown against them and emerged
richer, stronger, and even more solidified. And this is a characteristic of top civilization states. Same thing
with Russia. Europe still has not learned the lessons over the past 300 years trying to subjugate Russia.
They're going to have to learn it again in the 21st century. It's a story that we have been following closely for
years. So that's it. And and once again is Western civilization that still
refuses to understand the lessons of history and they're going to pay a heavy price for it. They are already paying a heavy price for it. It's going to be much worse.
[snorts]
Well, Pepe, thank you so much for taking the time on this hot summer day to speak with us for an hour.
Thank you, Command. It was always a pleasure to talk to you. Absolutely.
Cheers. And let's let's hope for as our uh Chinese friends say more auspicious times, but it seems that they are not around the corner. Charlie.

[admin]

Could this be the END of America?!
51-49 with James Li
Jul 13, 2026

In this episode, we dig into the terrifying legislative betrayal reshaping American national sovereignty — exposing how a hidden clause in the 2027 NDAA tries to merge the U.S. military with a foreign power, and how everyday citizens can join a critical grassroots fight to light up the Senate switchboard and take back their country.



Transcript

Navy. So, you put America first or Israel first? What the? You know, I answer. You serve for the United States Navy? You serve for the US Navy?
You're putting your life on the line, bro. You're putting your life on the line.
I don't. I shouldn't. They try to call me, you, everybody an alarmist, a conspiracy nut, a doomer, whatever other pjoratives when we tried to warn the
public about a month ago that Israel is trying to infiltrate and essentially take over the United States military.
And now the prime minister of Israel is saying the quiet part out loud on national television. Take a listen.
Minister, will that will that um drawing down of foreign aid from the United States to Israel be compensated by the
the the proposal to have um a merging of some sort between our Pentagon and um and your military?
Yeah, the I'm calling it from from aid to partnership. So we we take away the money that is given to Israel which is
uh which is uh uh one part but the other part is we invest co-invest in equal measures in the new technologies that
are needed to give our military and your military the the advantage. So we want there are some unbelievable projects. So
we uh invest [clears throat] jointly and take the fruits uh equally. You move from aid to partnership and I think that
uh represents what Israel is. And remember the other thing is that we share with America unbelievable intelligence to save American life. Uh
General Keegan has said that uh when he was working in American intelligence, what Israel was giving the United States
was worth he said five CIAs. I don't uh I'm not trying to be mathematically exact, but Israel's contributions to
America's defense are important. Our technology is incredible. And since yours is incredible too, and you're uh
the great champion of liberty and free markets, I think the meshing of our two uh great countries of talent would uh
would strengthen the America's position, competitive position both in the economic marketplace and in the military battlefield in many important ways. So
that's the idea. The idea is to take away aid, one-sided aid, and move it into uh you know, bilateral investments for
Well, it certainly brings up some issues of sovereignty, but we'll have to work that out later.
I'm sorry, what? Oh, there's just a, you know, a little issue with our nation's sovereignty, but we'll just we'll work that out later. No biggie. This is how
captured our institutions are by the Israelis that they'll just say, "Here you go, Israel. Have your cake and eat it, too." And while we're at it, let's
just also expose all of Netanyahu's lies. Starting with the claim that they give us valuable intelligence, which is just a croc [snorts] of bull crap. In
fact, you could see here it's quite the opposite in that they are the only nation we're supposedly allied with that
actively spies on us. And they've been caught numerous times planting bugs in the White House, at the Pentagon to sabotage our leaders. And if you notice,
this is from an Israeli newspaper. They just openly sort of brag about it. And I don't doubt that they are the most sophisticated spy agency in the world.
But the fact is they serve themselves and rightly so. That's what any good national intelligence agency should do.
But to believe that they are equal partners with us is either naive thinking at best and treasonous at
worst. A refresher on section 219. in the USIsraeli military merger would quote connect the US and Israeli militaries in unprecedented ways and
make it exceedingly difficult for any future president to unwind this partnership with a foreign government no matter what public opinion says. Again,
it's called section 219 tucked away in the massive congressional spending bill known as the National Defense Authorization Act or NDAA. This
provision of the law would effectively require our nation to permanently entangle the American military with the Israeli military. Among other things, the United States Israel Defense
Technology Cooperation Initiative would require the US to share intelligence with Israel and establish a system of weapons research, development, and
production, particularly in the domains crucial to warfare in the modern age, artificial intelligence, autonomous systems, and various other fields of
high defense technology. Now, remember when Israel blew up a bunch of pagers in Lebanon? Yeah, they can do this to us if
we ever step out of line. And this next part might be the most critical part of all. quote, "There is a reason why members of Congress are trying to sneak
this bill through right now, buried in a massive and mustpass defense spending bill. This might be their best last chance to thwart the will of the
American people." Okay? We as a nation are done with Israel. Okay? They're going to do whatever they're going to do over there. Mass slaughter innocent
civilians in multiple countries, blow up civilian apartments, whatever. But the majority of Americans, we don't want any part of that. Things have gotten so bad
for Israel that Zoron Mumdani is more popular than Benjamin Netanyahu even amongst American Jews. Okay? And remember what Mumani said he would do?
He would arrest Netanyahu if he ever came to New York City. The Associated Press NC Center for Public Affairs research survey of 1,022 Jewish adults
nationwide conducted from June 11th through June 17th found that 44% of American Jews hold a favorable opinion of Zoron Mandani compared to just 39%
who view him unfavorably. By contrast, just 32% of respondents said they have a favorable opinion of Netanyahu, while 59% said they have a negative view of
the longtime Israeli leader. I applaud this completely because for the most part the truth is the Jewish diaspora population have no ancestral ties to
Israel. Their DNA cannot be traced to that land which is why coincidentally maybe maybe not DNA tests are heavily
restricted in Israel. It's all fake and made up birthright and all this other nonsense that they push. Also, I might add when it comes to their military,
this is a country that bombed its own soldiers on October 7th. Okay, this is a real leaked video from inside their
quote unquote situation room on October 7th. Take a look.
Hello.
Those are very senior Israeli military and government officials. I think I saw Itar Bengavir there on the morning of October 7th explicitly calling for what
is known as the Hannibal directive which instructs their soldiers to use heavy fire including air strikes or shelling to stop abductors vehicles even if it
meant killing the captured soldiers in the process. Okay, this destruction that a lot of us saw was not done by
paragliders coming over from Gaza with a few machine guns. Okay, this is like serious heavy military artillery and
shelling that can cause this kind of damage. Let me be clear. This is a country that has no moral boundaries.
There are no red lines. They will do whatever it takes to further their nationalistic supremacist project. And now the only people who can stop it is
us. This is Representative Thomas Massie. quote, "Rules committee meets Monday night, that is tonight, and will decide if our amendment to strip section
219, merging US military tech and supply chains with Israel's from the NDA will get a vote. If they don't let our amendment get a vote, I will vote
against their rule." He's facing a massive uphill battle because most everybody in Congress is captured by Israel as we know. So, we got to be louder and more pernitious than them.
This is Joe Kent, the former director of the National Counterterrorism Center, and he says, quote, "This week, the Senate will vote to merge our military's
most sensitive and secret capabilities with Israel. This merger is buried within the massive NDAA, and they're hoping you won't notice." Oh, trust me,
Joe, we're noticing. Merging our military with a foreign country is treasonous betrayal of our sovereignty.
Call your senators and tell them to vote no on the NDAA until the merger with Israel, section 219, is taken out. Tell
them we will never ever support merging our military with a foreign nation. The Senate switchboard number is 202243121.
Write that down, guys. 202243121.
Tell them that if they vote yes on the 2027 NDAA as is with section 219 intact, not only will we vote them out of
office, they will not be dining in our restaurants. We will refuse them service. If you own a car wash, locksmith, whatever, you have the right,
we all have the right to refuse service to anyone. We've seen that sign bar protected classes like race, religion, sexuality, etc. But you know what's not
a protected class? Traitors. So, we got to light up that switchboard because it is our last and final opportunity to save this country from a full and permanent Israeli takeover. Let's go.
That is it for me this week. You're probably sensing a little bit of heat coming from me, which I usually stay pretty calm collected, but I think this is the most important piece of
legislation as it pertains to America's sovereignty and to that effect you and I's quality of life. So again, light up that switchboard. Also, if you have
other creative ideas about what we can do to fight back, sound off in the comment section below. If you want to support my journalism, please go to my website, 5149jamesley.com.
Sign up to become a member. There's also an option to give a onetime donation. No subscription necessary. You can also buy some awesome merch, but if not, no worries at all. Just do me a big favor.
Like this video, hype it, share it, subscribe to the channel, turn on that notification bell so you can be the first to know when my next video drops.
As always, thank you so much for your time, and I will see you in the next one.
In 2002, the Pentagon was infiltrated by MSAD.
They did not need any identification to get through the river entrance to the building. They went upstairs to Douglas
Fe, the under secretary of defensees for policy, the third most powerful man in the defense department. Occasionally, they went to the second most powerful
man, Paul Wolfwitz, the deputy secretary of defense, and they had run of the Pentagon. Donald Rusfeld, the secretary of defense, said to my boss one time,
"Hell, I don't run my building. Massage does.

[admin]

The MOU Is DEAD After Major Escalations In The War On Iran
Reason2Resist with Dimitri Lascaris
Jul 14, 2026

Within the past 48 hours, the incessant lies and provocations of Trump and his proxies in West Asia have killed the Memorandum of Understanding between the United States and Iran.

The latest escalation? An attack by Saudi warplanes on the international airport in Sana'a, Yemen. That attack appears to have been intended to prevent the landing in Yemen of a civilian airliner from Iran.

Yemen's Ansar Allah responded to the Saudi attack on Sana'a Airport by attacking targets in Saudi Arabia, including the Abha International Airport.

Also, in response to ongoing U.S. attacks on southern Iran, Iranian forces have struck U.S. military bases in Oman, Jordan, Kuwait, Bahrain and Qatar.

Meanwhile, Trump has declared that the U.S. will charge an extortionate 20% fee to Gulf dictatorships that profit from using the Strait of Hormuz. There's only one problem with Trump's proposal: the U.S. does not control the Strait, nor will it do so in future.



Transcript

Good day. This is Demetri Lascaris coming to you from Montreal, Canada for Reason to Resist on July 14th, 2026.
Within the past 24 to 48 hours, the hot war on Iran has not only resumed uh but
it has escalated and in at least two important respects.
And I'll get into uh the nature of these uh two major escalations in the course of my report today. Uh and uh stated
briefly, they are as follows. First, Iran attacked US military facilities in Oman with whom it has been trying to uh
reach an agreement on future management of the Strait of Hormuz. And second, after Saudi forces bombed uh the airport
in Sana, Yemen. In the past, Yemeni forces struck back inside Saudi
Arabia.

Now, before we get into it, please remember to like and share this video if you find it to be informative.
If you're not already a subscriber to Reason to Resist, please do become one and help us to expand the reach of our
unapologetic on the ground resistance journalism.

The other thing I should mention is uh I am wearing for the first
time today during a recording uh some of our newly uh offered uh merchandise. Uh this is one of the items on offer. Uh
and uh if you are in a position to support uh the uh expansion of our on the ground journalism, something that we
think is extremely important for uh the alternative media space. uh it's all too rare amongst alter alternative media
that they have the uh ability and willingness to do this kind of work on the ground journalism in uh the crime scenes of western governments. If you
can help us by purchasing some merchandise, we would greatly appreciate that and uh you can figure out how to do that if you're interested by uh looking
at the description to this video. So with that uh let's get into it. As I mentioned at the outset, I'm back in
Montreal now after having uh spent uh the better part of 10 days in Iran uh
primarily to cover the funeral of the martyed supreme leader Ali Kamei. uh but also and uh I think most importantly uh
to talk about the attitude amongst Iranians to the uh now failed utterly failed negotiations with the United
States and uh to the resumption of war and uh I think uh if you haven't seen our reporting from Iran over the past 10
days or so please do check it out uh because it will uh reveal to you vitally important facts that you are not going
to be getting from uh any uh corporate media outlet in the west. I can assure you of that. Uh it's good to be back in
uh Montreal. I have family and uh friends here. Uh and I haven't been here in some time. But at the same uh moment
uh I must confess that I'm sad to have left behind the many wonderful friends I have made in Iran and also uh uh
comrades uh in Greece where I have spent much of the last few months. In any case,

Let's turn now to the escalations in the war uh the criminal war of aggression on Iran. Yesterday, an Iranian civilian aircraft attempted to
transport to Yemen officials of the Ansarala government in Sana who had attended the funeral of the martyr
supreme leader of Iran. And uh as the aircraft, these civilian aircraft piloted by uh an Iranian uh approached
the airport in Sana, Saudi war plananes attacked that airport. And here you can see uh a statement issued by the
Ansatala political bureau about that attack. It reads, "In a dangerous escalatory step, the criminal Saudi regime bombed Sana International Airport
in an attempt to prevent our delegation from returning to their homeland, but it failed.
The crime of targeting Sana International Airport constitutes a blatant act of aggression against our people, a flagrant violation of sovereignty, and a clear breach of
international laws and conventions. I can assure you that those are all correct statements of law. The targeting of SA International Airport reflects the
level of hatred and criminality harbored by the Saudi regime backed by the United States toward our people. The attack comes within the framework of implementing the American desire to
maintain the unjust blockade imposed on our people for more than 10 years. And by the way, that blockade has caused immense suffering uh brought the
population uh to the brink of famine uh several years ago and uh in my view constitutes evidence of genocidal intent
uh by the United States, Saudi and uh the United Arab Emirates against the people of Yemen. And the statement goes
on and says the policy of force, arrogance, and supremacy pursued by the Saudi regime backed by the United States will achieve no results and its fate
will be a failure and so forth.

If anybody was harboring any illusions that
the Saudi autotocracy is trying to play a passive role in uh this criminal war of aggression, not just against Iran, but the whole of the axis of resistance.
I hope that this development will bring those illusions uh to an end. The Saudis
are uh fully complicit and actively supporting the attempts uh the criminal and genocidal efforts of the United
States and Israel to uh uh destroy uh legitimate resistance to their uh brutal
domination of the region. And I think that is now uh clear beyond a shadow of a doubt.

Now despite their efforts and
as the statement of unsettle indicated the Saudi efforts to stop the civilian aircraft, it did land in Yemen albeit not in Sana because of the damage
inflicted on the airport. It landed rather in uh the Yemen Yemeni port city of Huaida. And here you can see uh a
photograph of the civilian aircraft on the ground uh at that airport. The um
the uh response of Ansadala as you can imagine was swift and decisive. It began
with Ansadala publishing a video of airports in Saudi Arabia which it considered to be legitimate targets as a
result of this aggression. And here is that video.

Now, I omitted to mention when I introduced that video that it's not just the airports uh that they're identified there as legitimate targets, but also uh
uh Saudi uh oil infrastructure uh on uh the coast. I believe that's uh
the Red Sea coast of Saudi Arabia, but it also might be uh infrastructure on the Persian Gulf Coast of Saudi Arabia.
So uh and no one should doubt the ability of Ansalah to strike any and all of those targets uh because they have done that successfully in the past
targets within Saudi Arabia. Uh and then very shortly after this uh statement was issued uh threatening retaliation
uh the uh Ansadala forces published a video of missile launches towards the uh Saudi autotocracy.
And then uh video emerged of an explosion at or near the Abha uh airport
in Saudi Arabia. And here is uh one of those video clips.
And if you listen carefully, you will hear uh an explosion in the distance.
Now, uh there were reports of damage at Saudi uh airports and uh here is a summary of those reports from the
Telegram uh channel of Geopolitics Prime. Yemeni and regional media report that Ansadala launched missile and drone
strikes targeting the Abba International Airport in Saudi Arabia's Assir region with reports claiming flights at the airport have been suspended. Regional
outlets including Iraq's Alahad TV reported explosions in Assir and said a missile struck the airport. They also cited a Saudiled coalition spokesperson
is claiming the incoming missiles were intercepted by air defenses. According to the same report, Saudi authorities have restricted the publication of
photos and videos from Abba airport following the incident. Riyad has not issued an official statement on the reported attack or any damage to the
airport. At least that was the case as of a few hours ago. Uh it may be that there has been an official statement made since then, but I'm not aware of
any.

Now the US Arab dictatorship, escalating aggressions against the axis
of resistance in my view, make the closure of Bab al-mandab Strait,
which connects the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aiden, a virtual certainty, a virtual inevitability at this stage. I'm
surprised it hasn't happened yet. When I say closure, I want to be clear that typically Ansarallah has not
restricted all traffic through the Bab al-mandab. What it does is it restricts what it regards as complicit maritime traffic. So these would be
vessels of the United States, and Israel, affiliated with the United States or Israel, traveling to or from uh ports in the genocidal Israeli entity, principally the Elat port, but also any Mediterranean ports. And you know probably the vessels of other western nations, affiliated with other western nations, would also be
subjected to a partial closure of the Bab al-mandab strait because of the complicity of western nations in the
genocidal crimes of Israel and the United States. So um if that hasn't happened already, I think it is very
likely to happen in the near immediate future, which is going to greatly exacerbate the already highly
elevated risk of a global economic crisis because of the importance of the goods, both commodities and finished goods that are transported through the Bab al-mandab strait when you either
come from the Suez Canal or are heading towards the Suez Canal, and ultimately into the Mediterranean.

So, if the
world has to deal with the closure of both the straight of Hormuz and the strait of Bab al-mandab simultaneously, we are going to be in a world of
pain, especially if those closures persist for a significant period of time.

Now, as I mentioned at the outset, the war in Iran has escalated to new heights in at least one other respect. Uh on Monday of this week, local media
reported that Iranian projectiles fired by the uh the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps of Iran had struck a US Navy
logistical hub in Oman that handles fuel resupply operations. My understanding is
that those US facilities in Oman had not been targeted up until now. Uh the fact
that uh Iran is willing to now target those facilities in Oman uh will I think
uh should be taken as an expression of Iranian government discontent with the Omani regime's uh more recent forms of
cooperation with the United States. And by that I'm referring specifically to the opening up of an alternative route for traffic through the straight of Hormuz that hugs the Omani coastline.
And that alternative route was established with the consent and cooperation of the Omani regime and uh
was intended to subvert Iranian control over the Strait of Hormuz. And make no mistake that Iranian's ongoing control,
Iran's ongoing control of the straight of Hormuz is of existential importance to Iran. If it loses control of the
Strait of Hormuz, and I'm quite sure that it won't, despite all of the violence, uh the uh its position, its
negotiating position would be greatly weakened and it would become much more vulnerable to the genocidal warfare of Israel and the United States. It is the
the control of the strait of Hormuz by the Iranian military is the best protection by far that Iran has uh from
its own destruction at the hands of the uh US and uh Israeli regimes. So, uh,
the Omani regime now has a new reality to deal with because of its own complicity in these crimes and its
refusal to do, frankly, what would be in the uh interest of its own people, namely to set up a management uh regime
within the Strait of Hormuz that results in pe vessels going through the strait having to pay a reasonable fee to Oman
and Iran. its refusal to cooperate in that regard is making it uh a legitimate target because after all as I say the US
military is using Omani facilities uh to uh carry out its uh crimes against the
Islamic Republic of Iran. Uh so uh I do understand and agree that the Omani regime is stuck between Iraq and the
hard place. After all, uh when it uh indicated, albeit uh in diplomatic language that it was going to cooperate with Iran, the uh psychopath in the
15 minutesWhite House openly threatened to blow up Oman. Uh but uh you know, there's a simple solution here. Maybe it's not so
simple, but it is a solution for the Omani regime, and that is to bring to an end the US military presence in Oman, which is its sovereign right. If it's
unwilling to do that and it's going to try to weaken uh the greatest form of leverage that Iran has to protect
itself, uh it should not be surprised if it becomes uh a party to this war, at least in the sense that US facilities on its territory are going to be attacked.
I think we're probably going to see a lot more of this uh in the future uh to the detriment of the interests of the Omani people.
Now uh it is certainly not Oman alone that has had to face uh these attacks or US military facilities within Oman. Uh
the Iranian military has continued to strike US bases uh in many other parts of the region as well as retaliation for
the ongoing US strikes on uh southern Iran. Uh so let's start by looking um at
a statement uh by the IRGC about its military activities over the past uh 1
to two days. Uh and here is uh an IRGC statement number five.

IRGC statement No. (5). Destruction of American military facilities and infrastructure in Barahin and long-range radar systems in the Sultanate of Oman.

Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Public Relations:

The decisive and powerful operations carried out by the Iranian armed forces have left the American military in a state of helplessness. In its latest
attacks, the American military targeted an agricultural water pumping station in the city of Mashar. A move that,
according to this statement, demonstrates its hostility toward the people.

Of course, you're referring here to the people of Iran.

In addition to
targeting American military facilities and infrastructure in the JUFER area of Badain, where fires are still burning, the IRGC Navy carried out the fifth
phase of reciprocal operations, launching missile and drone strikes against the FPS long range early warning radar and a maritime surveillance radar
in the Sultternate of Oman, destroying both systems.

The reopening of the straight of Hormamus to maritime traffic remains contingent upon the sessation of
what was described as American military interference in the strait and respect for the sovereignty of states over their territorial waters.

The continuation of such interference will lead to greater repercussions for the global oil and gas sectors.

And indeed they have already led to greater repercussions. I'll get uh to
that in a few minutes. Now the uh various video have have emerged of
uh uh the aftermath of these Iranian strikes on the Arab Gulf dictatorships.
So let's uh start with this one. This is smoke rising from the US naval facility in Bahin.
And uh here's another video which shows uh that all or at least a large part of Bane became pretty much engulfed in smoke as a result of these attacks.
Let's watch that one more time. You can see that the the building the infrastructure there is barely visible through uh the heavy uh haze of smoke.
Now uh the Iranians have published uh video of their missile and drone launches towards uh certain of these targets.
Now, it's by no means only Bahin and Oman that have been struck. Uh there was quite an interesting strike, a very
important strike potentially uh by the Iranian military on uh the US uh military uh base or one of the US
military bases in Kuwait. uh that uh base uh and that country have been used
uh by the Americans repeatedly during this criminal war of aggression to launch uh land-based missiles into Iran,
oftentimes striking uh civilian infrastructure andor killing civilians.
And so finally the Iranians decided they were going to target uh these uh military uh these missile uh systems.
And I'm referring here in particular to the uh HIMAR missile system which is the one that has been used uh is the most important groundbased missile system
that has been used against Iran uh in uh bases situated in the Gulf autotocracies. And uh I want to start by
showing you here uh a video of uh what reportedly is the aftermath of that strike which not only destroyed the system but also Himar's ammunition.
Now uh in addition to Kuwait, Bahin and Oman the uh and of course the Yemeni strikes on Saudi Arabia, the Iranian
military has also struck Jordan US military facilities. ities within Jordan. And here is a statement uh by
the Iranian military in that regard which I think is quite uh interesting for its uh commentary towards the people of Jordan.
The IRGC uh pointed out at the beginning of the statement and it's addressing itself here to the honorable and Muslim
people of Jordan. It started by saying that:

Islalmic Revolutionary Guard Corps:

To the honorable and Muslim people of Jordan:

At dawn today during the third phase of the second wave of operation victory 2 under the slogan vengeance for Hussein peace be upon him the fighters of Islam targeted key facilities and an American military position at an air base occupied by the child killing American military on your soil which had been used to launch attacks against us using ballistic missiles they inflicted upon the American criminals the punishment for their crimes.

On the first day of the war, the arrogant American administration used these same bases to massacre 168 innocent school children and their teachers in Minab.

And I think this is the most interesting part of the statement.

You know well that weare not hostile toward your country. On the contrary, we hold your noble people in the highest regard. More than any other nation, you understand the suffering and oppression of the Palestinian people. and you are fully aware of the crimes committed by the Zionist regime in killing 70,000 Palestinians, including 20,000 children in Gaza with the direct involvement of the United States.

Your determined demand for the removal of the occupying American bases from the region is a significant contribution to saving the Palestinian people and restoring security to the region.

And by way, parathetically, what I think they're referring to here, is that a very substantial portion of the Jordanian population is in fact Palestinian. And I've been to Jordan during the genocide. I can tell you that there are there's tremendous sympathy amongst ordinary citizens there uh not just the Palestinian uh population but uh amongst uh the whole of the population. And there's a tremendous amount of sympathy for the Palestinian struggle, but this so-called king of Jordan brutally suppresses any meaningful uh support for the Palestinian resistance movement. uh and uh as a result uh the only thing standing in the way of the intervention I think of the people of Jordan in uh this criminal war of aggression the kind of inter intervention that we have seen uh from for example South Lebanon uh is the brutal corrupt puppet of Washington the king of Jordan the so-called king of Jordan uh but what I find most interesting about this statement and similar statements that the Iranian military and government have made in the past is the revolutionary tenor of these statements. Uh they clearly are looking for regime change inside uh the Gulf Arabitocracies and are doing what they can to promote it. So they would like to see revolutionary forces unleashed as would frankly much of humanity in the broader region of West Asia so that this cancer this uh you know Washington cancer can finally be exised from the
region once and for all. And if that were to happen, if the US military forces would uh be successfully removed from the region, it would all be over for the genocidal pipsqueak Israel, which is nothing more than an extension of the US military, a giant US military base masquerading as a country and Washington's rabid attack dog uh in the region.

So we shall see whether the kinds of unrest we have seen inside Bahrain, a majority of whose population is Shia, will begin to emerge in countries such as Jordan. And as I say, that would be a wonderful development for the region if it resulted in the removal of US military forces and the uh founding of truly democratic governments across uh the broader region of West Asia.

So how is all of this affecting the situation in the Gulf? Well there have been more attempts by complicit shipping to transit through the straight of Hormuz without the
cooperation of the Iranian military. And uh as one would expect that complicit shipping is paying a heavy price.

Here is a statement from Geopolitics Prime, a resistance channel, about uh what are almost certainly Iranian
attacks on two tankers near the straight of Hormuz. Uh the UK uh Maritime Transportation Authority reported a
tanker hit by an unknown projectile 40 nautical miles northeast of Kalhat, Oman with the projectile striking the vessel
starboard side engine room. And the UAE Ministry of Defense said that two UAE tankers, Mombasa and Bakya, were
targeted by Iranian cruise missiles in the southern passage of the Strait of Hormuz in Omani territorial waters. It's very clear uh if these reports are
accurate that uh Iran is going to assert control over the entirety of the strait and uh with or without the cooperation
of the Oman regime. And the UAE Ministry of Defense according to this uh report by Geopolitics Prime said that the fires
broke out on both tankers and were later brought under control. One Indian crew member they say was killed and eight others were injured including four
seriously. Idran, according to Geopolitics Prime, is showing it can hit back where it hurts. Maritime traffic tankers in the Gulf's fragile sense of
security. So uh let me say uh that the uh I want to talk briefly about this
whole notion of control of the strait of Hormuz. You know in a way uh that is misfring the question when we ask the
question who controls the strait of Hummus and who will be able to control the straight of Hormuz in future. It's
not necessary that Iran uh you know have an iron grip of control over the entirety of the strait in order for it
to achieve its larger purposes of deterring attacks on the country. All it has to do is to generate through missile
and drone attacks and attacks by uh fast naval vessels and uh perhaps through the lane of mines. It has to generate enough
risk to maritime transportation through the straight of Horamuz that uh shipping companies are deterred from sending
their vessels through the straight. If they can create uh enough risk to deter maritime transportation through the
straight of Hormuz, then whether or not they have complete control over the strait, they will effectively achieve their objective of inflicting damage,
enough damage on the global economy uh to force the Americans to stop attacking their country. Uh so that is a
relatively low bar for the Iranian military to have to meet given its military capabilities. No matter what
the US does, it will continue to create so much risk within the straight of Hormuz that there will be, if not a
complete cessation of maritime transportation through the straight, certainly a dramatic reduction of maritime transportation through the
strait. And as long as there is a dramatic reduction, even if it isn't a total cessation of movement through the straight, then the uh situation in
global oil markets will continue to worsen. And not just in global oil markets, but in the market for fertilizer, in the market for helium, in
the market market for sulfur, sulfuric acid, all of these uh uh uh commodities, they're extremely important to the
global economy. Uh will continue to be uh in short supply. Uh so this is not a
battle that the United States can win no matter what Donald Trump says. And this is something which I think the uh global
oil market is coming to understand uh albeit uh belatedly uh because we can see over the last couple of days there
has been a dramatic increase in the price of oil. Again this is from uh the oilpric.com website uh as of a couple of
hours ago. Uh the price of Brent crude had shot up another uh 4% today uh
trading at nearly $87. I believe it was trading I saw just a quick report just before I began this report indicating it had gone above $87.
Uh so uh it had gone down uh to the low60s and is now shot up to the high
80s and where it's going to go from here uh is anybody's guess. uh but given the situation in the straight of Hormuz and
the escalation of these wars and the possible closure imminent closure of the Babel Mandab strait uh probably the
price of oil is going to go a hell of a lot higher uh in the days and weeks ahead. Meanwhile, the gangster Donald
Trump uh has proclaimed that the Gulf autotocracies uh that use the straight of Hormuz will have to pay huge
protection money to his Washingtonbased mafia. Here is a statement that he just put out put it out yesterday in fact on
Truth Social and uh the uh orange lunatic in the White House wrote that the horm straight is open. This is of
course nonsense. Uh there's virtually no traffic going through the straight of Hormuz. And he says it will remain open with or without Iran. We are reinstating
the Iranian blockade. So there you have it folks. The one and only benefit that Iran had acquired from signing the MOU, which is to say a lifting of the blockade and a reestablishment of its ability to sell its oil, has been
snatched away from it. There is now no benefit whatsoever to Iran complying with any aspect of the memorandum of
understanding.

And so the gangster went on and wrote that the Iranian blockade is so named because it is only stopping Iran ships or customers from entering or leaving all other countries have will have fair and open use of the strait. Delusional, let me say that's outright delusional.

The USA will be from this point forward known as the guardian of the Hormuz strait. But as such and as a matter of fairness will be reimbursed at the rate of 20% on all
cargo shipped for any all costs necessary to do the job of providing safety and security to this very volatile section of the world. The process and formation will begin immediately. Thank you for your attention to this matter.

So it is most ironic that as Marco Rubio, Trump's secretary of state, is whining about the supposed illegality of the fees that Iran wants to charge to
vessels going through the straight of Hormuz. his own boss, Donald Trump, is proclaiming that the United States is
going to charge an extortionate fee for providing protection or so it's
claimed uh for vessels transiting through the straight of Hormuz. As we've seen from these attacks that just occurred within the past 24 hours, the
ally of the United States, the UAE has said its vessels were attacked. So, what protection is Donald Trump talking
about? He is utterly incapable of providing any protection. But even if he were, uh 20% is an absolutely
extortionate fee for him to be paying and one which according to his own secretary of state would violate international law. Now, here's some
additional commentary uh that the uh the mafioso offered to the media to explain his position about the straight of
muzzim and we're not going to put it up. Yeah, I want to be reimbured because we're protecting a very rich portion of the
33 minutesworld we're spending money and so what we've done is we are going to be reimbursed for protection we're protecting by the countries that we're
uh helping for instance you look at the five countries you have Saudi Arabia you have uh UAE you have Qatar or Qatar as I
always say you have Qatar Bahrain and by the way you have others you have Kuwait and you have others and they will do
very well but we think it's appropriate that we don't need You know, we have more oil than any other country in the world. When you add Venezuela has which
has been amazing when you which has tremendous amounts of oil that we control. When you add Venezuela and everything else, we have more than 50% of the world supply. We don't need it.
Again, this man is delusional. First of all, uh even assuming that the US has effective control over Venezuela's oil, and if it does, that really uh uh is a
raging indictment of the current government of Venezuela, I must say. But let's put that aside. Uh even if it has complete control over uh the oil of
Venezuela, it does not have control over more than 50% of the world's oil supply.
What what drug is this man smoking? I guess unless you include all of the oil of West Asia. Uh if he thinks that they
control all of that oil, maybe you can get to over 50%.
uh but uh uh I think there may be a number of governments uh in the region who would dispute that the United States
effectively controls its oil and uh in any case uh the uh control of that oil
uh is not going to prevent a dramatic increase in the price of oil. If the global supply of oil is uh dramatically
reduced, then there is going to be inevitably sharp increases in the price of oil and that is going to have uh
highly negative impacts not just on uh countries outside of the west but on the United States itself and we've already
seen that in the form of inflation and increased uh prices at the gas pumps. Uh but in any uh event um let's remember
that before this criminal war of aggression began before it was launched by the United States and Israel no one including Iran was talking about
charging any fees to any vessels transiting the strait of Hormuz. Iran decided to charge fees as a result of
the war of aggression on his country uh which virtually the entire west and the Gulf Arab dictatorships have supported.
It takes, I would submit, a special kind of hutzbah to provoke a crisis in the straight of Hormuz, as Trump did, and
then demand payment from your so-called allies for resolving that crisis by by
seizing control of the straight of Hormuz from Iran. What's even more absurd about this situation is, as I argued, that the US will not ultimately be able to take control of the straight.
So Trump's bluster about a 20% fee will go nowhere. However, what Trump's uh declaration that they're going to charge
a 20% fee has done is completely discredit the position taken by his secretary of state that the imposition
of a toll would be illegal and it has also made the Iranian government look extremely reasonable by comparison. Uh
here is a post put out by the Iranian foreign minister uh Abbas Adakshi after the Trump statement and uh as you will
see uh the Iranian foreign minister is pointing out uh that the deal on offer from Iran is much more favorable.
He wrote yesterday on X,

POTUS (the president of the United States) is absolutely right. Whoever provides secure and safe passage of commercial vessels through the strait of Hormuz should be compensated for the service.

Iran has always been the GUARDIAN of the strait, and will remain so FOREVER.

20% is of course too much. We will be fair.

And the fee that the Iranian government has been talking about, which is I believe in the range of $1 million per vessel, would amount to about 1 to 2% of the value of the cargo of these large tankers, as opposed to 20%. So, as I said, you know, by comparison, the demand of Trump is truly extortionate.

And this new proclamation from the White House that that the United States is going to be charging
20% is not only completely unachievable as a practical matter but has simply discredited the United States government
even further. Now I must uh conclude this report with a reminder and uh my
reminder is that five days before the memorandum of understanding was signed a couple of weeks ago I put out this
statement on X everybody at that point in time including Mario Nefal was uh was
uh you know well not everybody but a lot of people uh in the alternative media uh
were expressing a hope if not an outright expectation that the war had come to an end. The United States had
capitulated uh and uh that we could now all clasp hands together and sing Kumbaya. And in
that setting, I put out this statement 5 days before theou was signed and wrote that there's no peace deal. There won't
be a peace deal. Even if they sign something, it won't be worth toilet paper because Trump and Netanyahu will both sabotage it. We should stop
fixating on this absurd circus and focus on what the child murdering Israelis are doing to Palestine and Lebanon.
Now, I'm not showing you this to uh toot my own horn. Uh, by the way, I don't
regard it as as having been prophetic or particularly insightful on my part that this was going to happen. I think it was absolutely obvious that it was going to
happen. A child who was familiar with the record of treachery and lying of the Trump and Netanyahu regimes could have
foreseen that thisou was going to be treated by the Trump regime like toilet paper. Uh and yet, you know, a lot of
wishful thinkers out there uh jumped on the you know, peace is at hand bandwagon and proclaimed that the war was effectively over. No, it is not over.
Not by a long shot as we have all seen.
And I would argue that it will not be over uh at least until uh Iran and its
allies have inflicted so much pain on the United States uh and the West, particularly pain of an economic nature
uh that they will be finally deterred and permanently deterred from attacking uh the uh Iranian uh state and also the
allies of Iran in the region. And we're not anywhere close to that point yet. Uh the United States economy has suffered
some damage, but we are very far from uh the level of uh damage that would be
necessary to in to uh incent a large proportion of the American population to
demand relentlessly, vigorously, uh and in every way imaginable that the war be brought to an end. Uh I think
we're months away from that point, unfortunately. I hope that I'm proven wrong about that. Uh but I think we are going to see a lot more war in the days
and weeks ahead and a hell of a lot more damage to the global economy.
Uh, one other piece of news I want to share with you before I sign off is a statement that was just put out by the genocidal Israeli military acknowledging
that the number of wounded in its ranks since the start of its genocidal uh offensive in South Lebanon has risen to
1,461, including 89 in critical condition and 165 in moderate condition.
uh you should assume that these numbers are uh represent only a portion of uh Israel's real losses. They continue to
mount which may explain why though by the way why Israel uh has not at least
uh publicly taken part in the most recent round of attacks on Iran. uh it's at least uh for the time being sitting
out this round of hostilities and leaving it entirely to uh the US military uh to bear the burden of this
war of aggression. In any case, my friends, uh that'll do it for today. Uh we will be back to you uh tomorrow
morning uh perhaps later today with a report an interview of our good friend uh the Palestinian legendary Palestinian
woman of resistancehab Nazal uh who is currently visiting Canada and has a harrowing story to recount of the
suffering of a family whose members have been imprisoned by the genocidal Israeli military. For the time being, please stay stay safe stay safe.

[admin]

BREAKING: Trump Is Trapped-What Iran's Majlis Just Voted For — And What It Deliberately Left Out
Transition Protocol
Jul 15, 2026

Iran's parliament has voted 400–0 to accelerate the country's nuclear capabilities — and sources close to Tehran's decision-making tell Transition Protocol that a nuclear test on Iranian soil is now openly discussed at the highest level, with a decision expected within days if Sunday's Pakistan–Qatar mediation window fails. In this episode, veteran geopolitical analyst Pepe Escobar and former CIA analyst Larry Johnson join Zulfiqar Ali to map the week that could decide the U.S.–Iran war: Trump's reported personal calls to Field Marshal Asim Munir seeking an off-ramp, the Pentagon's Crisis Action Teams back on 24/7 war footing, and the arithmetic nobody in Washington wants said aloud — a precision-missile stockpile Johnson assesses at just 56 units of the Army's newest weapon.

We break down why Iran believes it only has to strike ten fixed targets — from Al Udeid to Erbil — while the U.S. faces a thousand regenerating launch sites along the Strait of Hormuz; what an Iranian NPT withdrawal vote would really signal; why Hezbollah now considers itself unbound; and the escalation card that has not even been played yet: Bab el-Mandeb.

Source note: this episode combines publicly confirmed reporting on the collapse of the June 17 MOU with source-based information developed by Transition Protocol's contacts. Claims not yet independently verified are flagged on screen. Pepe Escobar is a globally published geopolitical correspondent; Larry Johnson is a former CIA analyst and State Department counterterrorism official. Weekly written security briefings: Substack — Transition Protocol ($5/month).



Transcript

Today is the 15th of July, a very important date because a lot is going on in the world as everybody knows. And at transition protocol, we source information that is beneath the surface, not being reported by legacy media and not being reported by independent media. We have with us very experienced globally recognized authorities to whom we provide the information, and they then give you the information as they deem fit. So I wish to introduce my dear colleagues and friends Pepe Escobar, Larry Johnson and and please go ahead Pepe.

[Pepe Escobar] Thank you. Thank you Mr. Z. Thank you Larry. Uh thanks all of you our global audience. Okay, let's go straight to the point. As it stands, there are three absolutely key issues revolving around we could say maybe the [laughter] the total death of the previously come to MOU cat unless he resuscitates like in one of those American gory thrillers the cat could always resuscitate but at the moment it's going to be very very hard but okay let's go to the three absolutely key points and then we can launch a conversation among us and extending to the possibility within the next few days of some sort of dialogue back on track.

Number one, the Majis, the Iranian Parliament, they met yesterday and they voted on two resolutions for an absolutely astonishing 400 to zero. Okay, resolution number one, demanding the government to accelerate nuclear capabilities. This is on purpose quite vague. It can be interpreted as an acceleration of their Iranian enrichment, or it can also be interpreted as an acceleration of the possibility which is now discussed openly between leader Mojtabai Khamanei and the Supreme National Security Council of perhaps launching a nuclear test in Iranian soil. This is beyond groundbreaking of course, but now is part of the Mojtabai era which by the way started only a few days ago last Friday. Thursday was the end of the Ayatolllah Khamanaei era in the Islamic Republic and Mojtabai's era started only a few days ago on Friday. And there are many vectors, and I would say carefully calculated leaks, pointing to Iran maybe upgrading their game big big time as a dissuasive strategy.

Number two, and this goes in parallel, Islamabad and Doha, Pakistan and Qatar are starting to talk again from the position of mediators ,and this is what they expect. This is what Pakistani and Qatari mediators expect. So we cannot take this at face value much less as this is going to happen. Talks with Iran might restart between Pakistanis and Qataris this Sunday. So within the next few days, this doesn't mean of course that the MOU will be back on track. No, this means that Islamabad and Doha will try to convince Iran to come back to the table. And we still don't know what sort of I would say intergalactic arguments they will need to convince Iran that this time America will be serious.

And number three is something that has been evolving for the past few weeks, and in fact the past two months, is the extremely queer, key to say the least, and I'm trying to be very diplomatic here, relationship between Donald Trump and Field Marshal Asim Munir. Trump continues to call Field Marshall Asim Munir directly. It's a relationship where they can pick up the phone and call the other party, and there's an immediate response. When it comes to Trump, this does not usually happen. So one of the few foreign players at the highest level who can do that to Trump is Asim Munir. But in this case Trump is calling the Field Marshall in a I would say a desperation state, trying to influence or trying to suggest quite directly in fact to Munir, "Are you able to find a way out, or an offramp after himself Trump blew up the MOU, at least nine or 10 points among the 14. Can there be some sort of comeback of negotiations that would not involve what Trump would read as personal humiliation?" The problem is Trump is already personally humiliated by his own actions. So anything that happens, and anything that Asim Munir would convince the Iranians to accept from an American point of view, it will be a worse MOU than the one that was blew up by the President of the United States.

So this is where we are on these three main points. And the other point is something that I'll pass over to Larry directly, because Larry has also detailed information about it. The Iranian response to the American bombings these past two days, they have been absolutely devastating and some of it is now surfacing on the net. And in the next few days the extent of the devastation in these American bases in West Asia is going to become even more obvious to anyone. So with that, Larry, take it away. Thank you.

[Larry Johnson] Hey, thanks Pepe. That's a great intro. So, let's first emphasize that the United States now is back on a war footing. On June 17th, they dismantled what are called the CATS, different cats than what Pepe was talking about. These are called crisis action teams. These were set up 7 days before the attack on Iran started on the 28th of February. These are planning operation cells at the Pentagon, at central command, and at other what are called supporting commands. And they operate 24/7. As of June 17, after the ceasefire was declared, they went to a 9-to-5, 5-day/week schedule, which means they weren't planning combat operations. Now they're back operating 24/7, which means these are significant combat operations. So that's the bad news in terms of the war definitely is back on. However, the Iranians enjoy a tremendous advantage over the United States, and it boils down to this. From the north of Keshum Island, I think it's called Bandar A Gaham, and then to the south, along the coastline around Seker, that's about 200 miles, 180 miles of coastline all along that coastline in holes in these mountains that rise up out of the sea from which coastal defense missiles are fired. There are firing position firing positions for drones. So, the United States says it's goal is to degrade Iran's ability to attack ships in the Gulf, forgetting that Iran's capabilities are not just in terms of coastal defense cruise missiles that are fired out of those cliffs, or missiles that are fired from fixed positions on Keshum Island, and other islands in the straight of Hermuz, and drones that are launched in the straight of Hermuz above the air, you know, aerial drones, there are also underwater drones. There are many submarines capable of launching torpedoes. There are surface level drones. There are combat ships.

The point is that the United States is facing a thousand targets at least, at least a thousand targets that they would need to try to destroy in order to quote degrade Iran's ability to interfere and prevent ships that are not complying with the Persian Gulf Strait authority protocols that Iran has laid out.

But what the United States runs up against is it does not have the air power, and it does not have the missiles, to be able to handle that mission. And in fact, they think they can destroy one set of drone launchers, and lo and behold, Iran can come out and produce a whole new set within 24 to 48 hours.

So, in other words, it's like the task of Sisiphus trying to roll a rock up a hill, always thinking they're reaching the top, and then the rock rolls back down to the bottom.

Iran, on the other hand, has a completely different tactical and strategic situation in front of it, one that favors it, and to the detriment of the United States. It only has to attack 10 targets, and those targets don't move. The two air bases in Jordan, Moaf Aqasalti, and the Prince Hassan air base. That's where US aircraft and refueling tankers are operating from. All Iran has to do is hit those day after day after day after day, cluster munitions, ballistic missiles, drones, and at some point those bases become uninhabitable, and the ability of the United States to continue attacking Iran will cease.

Similarly, the airfield at Al Udid and Qatar, the Alissa airfield, Alisa airfield in Bahrain, the Ali Salam air base in Kuwait, the Al Dafra air base in the United Arab Emirates, Duqa, a logistics resupply center for US aircraft carriers, all of these are now on the target list, and we'll add Erbil which is under attack as we speak by Iranian forces, taking out US headquarters, US positions, US warehouses.

So within this battle, Iran holds the decisive edge, and it will compel the United States at some point, I don't know if it's this week, next week, or the week after, but the United States is now faced with a situation of trying to escalate where it does not have the weapon systems to escalate. The Tomahawk missile, the JASM missile, those are in short supply. There were reports in the first few days that the HIMARs were being used to launch rockets or missiles. There are only three types of missiles that the HIMAR can launch. One is called a ground launch multiple rocket system that only goes about 50 miles. So that's not used. If you fire it from Bahrain or Kuwait, it's not even going to reach Iranian territory.

That leaves attackums. Well, attackum sounds good except if you fire it from Bahrain, the range from Bahrain to Bandar Abbas, barely reaches Bandar Abbas. So its numbers are limited, which leaves us with a precision strike munition, a brand new missile to replace the attackum. And guess what? For fiscal year 2026, Lockheed Martin has produced a grand total of 56. I'll repeat that. 56. That's what they're shooting at Iran. They're going to be done in a week, easy, if they're firing seven a day.

So the point is, the United States, with the tomahawk, is limited in supply. The JASM missile, another joint air strike, surface strike missile, all of those are dependent upon rare earth minerals to come out of China, but the supply chain is disrupted, the factories in the United States cannot produce these by the hundreds in a month, they produce them by the dozens in a month, if that.

So here is the United States now attacking Iranian positions, with missiles and weapon systems that are running out of supply, and there is no way for the United States to reverse that. So, this is a case where all Iran has to do is hang on, hang in there, keep pounding away at the US positions, they don't have to go looking for a wide variety, they just have to hit 10, and if you can hit 10 day after day after day after day, you reach a point where the United States can no longer sustain that operation, and will be desperately seeking talks to reestablish-reignite the MOU. But I think where we are, and this reinforces the point that Pepe was making, the Iranian people are fed up, and the chants that were heard at home, the chants that were heard in Mashad, were Entehem, revenge. Revenge. They don't want negotiation. They don't want compromise. The Iranian people want revenge. They want the United States to pay for the blood of the martyrs.

[Pepe Escobar] Excellent, Larry. And this ties up completely with the intel that we're receiving that Trump is desperately calling Asim Munir non-stop, to try to find an off ramp, because obviously somebody at [inaudible] may have explained what you just explained to all of us, on a typical Trumpian sound bite, that he could understand: You're gonna run out of weaponry in a matter of a few days, even before you run out of strategic patrolling reserves. So this is the language that Trump may understand. Right? Mr. Z, you want to add something, or you want to clarify something, or you want to add ...

[Zulfiquar] Well, I want to clarify a few points. Yes, I want to clarify a couple of points, because they are freshly reported out of our contacts that we believe are totally reliable, and they are that the majlits met after many months, I'm told. They met just last night, our time, and they passed two resolutions.

[Pepe Escobar] We talked about this at the beginning.

[Zulfiquar] Yeah, but the vote was 400 to zero.

[Pepe Escobar] Yes, but we already talked about that.

[Zulfiquar] Yes. And secondly, Pakistan has opened, and we did not talk about this, multiple corridors for Iran. Multiple corridors, where transit is already taking place of goods including oil, not only to Pakistan but to certain favored countries, including that from the deep sea port of Gawada. So Iran is not isolated. Iran is not in a hurry. They have patience on their side. They are capable of absorbing punishment. But the United States is not. So who knows what got into his head that allowed Trump to embark on this most recent foolishness. I mean I obviously cannot understand that, and people I speak with don't understand that. You are [clears throat] experts at at understanding the stupidity of Trump, so maybe you can understand what exactly got into his head that caused him to behave in this fashion, because it is utterly foolish.

[Pepe Escobar] I prefer to go back to what's happening in Tehran, with Mojtabai in power, solidifying his new year, the beginning of his new era, the fact that his original understanding of the MOU was absolutely correct. And this is something that he said only a few days ago, before he delegated this decision to engage with the MOU, he delegated the decision to the supreme national security council, as long as they had a solid majority. But he made a point among the the the tight inner circle that this was not his priority. Meaning, he never believed that the MOU would be fulfilled by the US, and the American commitments would be followed. So in this aspect, he was essentially behaving like his dad. Khamanaei, over and over again in public, and in private, always said it's absolutely impossible to negotiate with the Americans. And he knew by experience, by all his years in power. Mojtabai learned in absolutely adversarial conditions, being attacked in the middle of a war when part of his family was decimated by an American strike, and his position has been vindicated.

So, what Larry has just mentioned once again, the absolutely unbelievable scenes that we witnessed last week in this Shiite arc, was Tehran and Qom, the spiritual capital, but also Najaf and Carbala, two spiritual capitals in Iraq, and in the end Mashad, which is still another religious spiritual capital in eastern Iran where Ayatollah Khamanei was buried, Revenge. But this can be interpreted conceptually, and in terms of Shiite theology, as a long struggle, and it can also be interpreted in pedestrian terms that yes, we have a clear mark on you, and something is going to happen to the people who attacked us on February 28th.

So this can be interpreted in many different ways, but the most important thing is that the decisions of Mojtabai Khamanei, take into consideration the verdict from the streets. And we're talking about 40 million people. This is unheard of in the history of the modern era, or perhaps centuries behind us.

So this will guide the next steps in terms of Iranian resistance, in terms of Iranian resisting let's say the next 10 days or so, assuming American bombing will continue like Trump is advertising every night, and very hard, until they ran out of munitions, and of course this imperils completely this possible new Tehran-Islamabad-Ankara-Doha alignment, in terms of having some sort of the remains of the MOU cat back on the negotiation table.

So this is where we are. We are once again in a very dangerous crossroads. And of course, the president of the United States is advancing his own demise by his actions, after blowing up a memorandum of understanding that he signed, and he committed to fulfill. And obviously he didn't listen to what the Iranians have been saying from the beginning, that now commitments are bilateral. You break it, we also break it, and you have to live with the consequences.

[Larry Johnson] Yeah. And again, Z, what we're looking at here now is Iran has laid down two markers in the past. They've said that if the United States continues these attacks, that they will close the Bab al-Mandab Strait, and that they will revoke Iran's participation in the non-proliferation treaty.

It's been interesting in the last couple of days, following the Saudi attack on Sanaa, the airfield in Sanaa, and the Houthi's immediate response retaliating against two air bases in Saudi Arabia, that the Saudis appear to have backed down, or maybe they're licking their wounds trying to figure out what they do next. But the fact of the matter is, they have backed down. They're not pursuing, or stepping up the attacks. Because I think they recognize that if they do so, that the Houthis can inflict a lot more damage on them, particularly taking out their oil at Yanbu. So that east-west pipeline will be disrupted. So you've got that.

If we do see the Majli in Tehran vote to withdraw from the MOU, then I think that will be the clearest sign that Iran has decided that the fatwa of Ali Khamanei no longer applies, that their only guaranteed path to future security is to have a nuclear weapon, one that would potentially challenge and put both the United States and Israel at bay, and put them in the same position that North Korea is right now. And I know that that cuts against the grain of a lot of the analysis from the intelligence community in the past, but I think the situation has changed, as even professor Marandi has noted in his conversations in recent weeks, with people in the streets. There's a growing sense that we have to have a nuke, because if we don't have a nuke, we don't have security. That we're not going to be safe

And so this quest for security, I think, is going to be a primary focus going forward, and frankly, US attacks, the continued killing of Iranian citizens by the United States, is just going to reinforce this feeling that we cannot surrender; there's nothing we can do to the United States; we tried; we signed the MOU; they broke every single point in that MOU; they violated every single one; and instead of accepting responsibility for what they did, they tried to blame us.

So this is where I think we're at. We're really at a crossroads now.

[Pepe Escobar] Go ahead, because I want to finish my participation with a very, very simple remark in fact, coming back to the beginning of this channel, which was called Power Shift, and then it was disconnected by some forces from above. One of our breaking news in the less than a week that we lasted, was centered around a phone call made by the President of Iran, Pezeshkian, to prime minister Shabash Sharif in Pakistan, where Pezeshkian was basically sending a message to the Americans via the Pakistanis, look, if you continue like this, we'll might be testing a nuclear device on Iranian soil, basically marking our new deterrence pass. So as the only way for Mojtabai to in fact imprint the new era now, under extreme circumstances, and considering that he has the support of virtually the whole population of Iran, let's finally revert the original fatwa by Ayatollah Khamanei, the fatwa by my dad, he's not going to put it in this terms of course, and of course we enter a new era of deterrence, because this is the only way that the Americans will understand that we are really, really serious in terms of preserving our sovereignty and our independence. And one thing may we may be sure, the whole global south will understand the Iranian position if push comes to shove.

[Zulfiquar] Well, what I was going to add to the same point, Pepe, that my contacts tell me that with the most recent -- which is last night -- passage of the resolution demanding that Iran make progress on its nuclear competency capabilities, they have put the ball back into the court of Mojtabai Khamanei. And Mojtabai Khamanei's very, very tight inner circle, are the only ones who are now in a position to decide if they're going to go and do what they informed Pezeshkian they were going to do about two weeks ago before the MOU was finally drafted and signed, and communicated on our channel, through our own reporting, by foreign minister of Pakistan Ishaq Dar, directly to Marco Rubio, and then there was progress on the MOU.

So I'm told that if the present escalation continues beyond Sunday, a specific marker date, because Pakistan and Qatar are going to be talking in a very intense way with their Iranian counterparts, taking with them whatever Asim Munir has heard from Trump privately, that is "please get me out of this situation, and see whether or not Iran is willing to listen," they will gauge that on this coming Sunday, the weekend. So if this continues into the next week, my contacts believe that Mojtabai will be very close to giving the green light to what we reported about 3 weeks ago, and that will completely change the dynamics of what is going on, and and permanently put an end to the constant desire of Israel and the United States to keep on attacking Iran. They don't want that anymore. So this is where we are at.

[Pepe Escobar] Yeah, absolutely. Larry, you want to wrap up?

[Larry Johnson] Yep. Well, just say that we'll continue to watch what happens with the daily exchange of fire between Iran and the United States, but Iran is going to remain in what I'll call its reprisal role. They get hit by the United States, they'll hit back, and they'll hit back harder. And the reality in this is that the United States has less ability to absorb these blows than does Iran. So the United States made a fatal error in rejecting and failing to adhere to the MOU. I will make my own prediction, that Iran will not return to the negotiating table unless they've got firm, ironclad guarantee that when they return, the frozen assets that have been frozen, all will be unfrozen and turned over then -- not at some unspecified date in the future. And that the sanctions will be lifted then, not at some unspecified date in the future. Those would be the two critical issues.

And whether the United States likes it or not, Iran is going to remain in control of the strait of Hormuz, and I think will now start collecting the fee that it agreed to wait 60 days for.

The other thing I guess we forgot to mention is what Hezbollah would do. Because Hezbollah followed the MOU, and under the MOU, Hezbollah was to cease attacks on Israel, which it did.

Now, as Iran said, they're unbound by the MOU, and the same applies to Hezbollah. And I anticipate we'll see Hezbollah beginning to retaliate against the Israeli attacks.

[Pepe Escobar] Absolutely. And the cherry on this volatile cake, the Bab Al Mandeb card has not even been played yet.

[Zulfiquar] Yes.

[Larry Johnson] Yes.

[Zulfiquar] It's in reserve. It's in escalation reserve by Iran, for which the United States has no solution. None whatsoever.

[Pepe Escobar] It's not a card by Iran. It's a card by Yemen. I've been to Yemen last year. They are completely independent. They are in close connection with Iran. But the Yemeni decisions are made in Sanaa and in Saba, the seat of and the birthplace of Ansarallah in the north. Only when you go there and talk to them, can you understand how prepared they are, how technologically evolved they are, and how this is a very very sophisticated civilization. According to Prophet Muhammad, the real Islam has always been in Yemen. So don't mess with them. They are just watching the river flow for the moment, to quote our dear friend Bob Dylan.

[Zulfiquar] They are a 2,000 year old civilization. And somebody in this country has the audacity, the stupidity, the hubris of thinking that they can be wiped out through some communication happening on a telegram channel. I mean this is how backwards we are. But in any case from what I'm told, they are very very tightly aligned with Iran. They're not going to do anything to jeopardize what Iran is doing. And they will do everything in support of Iran. This is my understanding, and that is something that I do not know whether Hegseth or Trump understand.

So before we go ,and perhaps wrap it up for the weekend, hopefully nothing worse happens on the weekend, what is your estimation Pepe on how this thing resolves?

[Pepe Escobar] No, no crystal balls. We deal with facts. We look at mountains of fact, interconnected facts. We shall wait. The problem is we depend on a very practical level, and on a mainly names-base, apparently we depend on Erdogan and Asim Munir to instill some sense into the four-year-old psychotic brain of the president of the United States. So I'm not sure this is a wonderful prospect ahead of us. But there's not another one, unfortunately.

[Zulfiquar] Yeah. Well, for our audiences globally, thank you very much for your support. I would like you to know that we are very very pleased with the kind of response that we have seen. We have a Substack channel, and we provide a paid opportunity for you to receive the security briefings that we discuss here on this channel, and it's kept at the lowest possible rate that Substack will allow us, which is $5 a month, or $50 a year. Please go to Substack transition protocol, and you shall have this security briefing delivered to you inside your mailbox every week. So thank you very much for your support. Thank you Pepe. Thank you Larry. We will be keeping in touch with our contacts, and bring you the latest news that is not available to anybody else as far as we can tell.

So thank you very much. We shall see you next week, Monday with Larry, Tuesday with Pepe, and Wednesday jointly between all of us. And unless something very significant happens, we will be seeing you Monday again. Thanks. Thanks a lot.

[Pepe Escobar] Thank you. Bye-bye. Bye-bye.

[Larry Johnson] Thank you. Bye-bye.

[admin]

John Mearsheimer: Iran Inflicting MASSIVE Damage on US, Trump & Israel LOST the War
Danny Haiphong
Streamed live 3 hours ago #iranwar #iran #trump

Prof. John Mearsheimer joins for the first time to evaluate the catastrophic impact of renewed US war on Iran and why Trump is caught is a strategic disaster. John J. Mearsheimer is the R. Wendell Harrison Distinguished Service Professor of Political Science at the University of Chicago and a leading realist scholar of international relations. A West Point graduate and former U.S. Air Force officer, he is the author of numerous influential works on U.S. foreign policy and power politics.



Transcript

Welcome back to the show everyone. As you can see, I am joined and I am very happy to introduce uh John Mirshimer.
John Mirshimer is a professor at the uh the Wendell Harrison Distinguished Service Professor of Political Science
at the University of Chicago. He is a preeminent realist scholar of
international relations, the author of several books including the Israel lobby and US foreign policy co-authored with
Steven Wald. Professor Mirshimer, good to have you on the show. Thank you so much for taking the time. I'm glad to be here, Danny.
Amazing. Well, let's begin with the latest developments in the US war uh on
Iran. And I'll just pull up this summary here. The United States has been engaging in bombing campaigns. It seems
like multiple each day. Uh the US has targeted uh much of southern Iran, the
coastal towns, cities, and areas. Bonder Abbas, Keshum Island, and the like. While Iran has been, and I've heard you
talk about on other programs, uh, inflicting a pretty massive damage on the United States itself, targeting
overnight, uh, the air base in Kuwait, an early radar warning system in Kuwait,
a gathering of US soldiers in Kuwait, uh, as well as, uh, a command and
control centers, fighter jet maintenance sites in Jordan and Bahrain. Uh uh also
we have uh mounting evidence that these losses might include US troops. Uh
there's satellite imagery showing at the Crown Plaza Hotel in Oman a direct missile strike having actually made
impact there. It is known to exclusively house US soldiers. This hotel and the US
is not only blowing through air defenses, it is also having their air defenses blown up. Uh we see here uh
satellite imagery that a Patriot air defense launcher was blown up at Bill in
Iraq. Uh Professor Mir Shimer, can you help us understand, help you understand why did the United States go to war and
what do you make of the actual situation as Trump touts that uh he's ready to
finish off Iran? Well, I think we went to war because we
thought that we could win a quick and easy victory. It's quite clear that the
Israelis and here we're talking about David Barnetta, the head of Mossad and Prime Minister Netanyahu invented this
story that if we launched the war with a shock and awe campaign and we
decapitated the regime, uh that would in effect bring the Iranians to their knees
and uh we would be able to negotiate a good deal with them. Uh and that good
deal would involve getting uh not only regime change uh but also putting an end
to their nuclear enrichment capability, their long range missile capability and their support of the Houthis Hamas and
Hezbollah. So those were the goals and again we thought that this shock and awe
campaign uh would allow us to achieve those goals quickly. Uh this was a
cockami idea. uh there was no good strategic reason to think that this
would work. And of course, it didn't work. And the Iranians have proven to be
uh remarkably tough uh adversaries for the United States and for Israel. And
the end result is that on June 17th of this year,
uh, President Trump signed this memorandum of understanding with, uh, Iran that was in effect the
surrender document. Uh if you look at the 14 elements of the deal that was
worked out, this memorandum of understanding, you see that it was a clear victory for the Iranians on almost
every point. Uh but it looked at that juncture, this is around June 17th and
immediately thereafter, like the war would end. But President Trump wasn't
satisfied with the memorandum of understanding and he thought that he could challenge the Iranians over
article five of the memorandum of understanding which had to deal with who
controlled the strait of Hormuz. It seems clear to me from article five that
it was the Iranians who controlled the strait. And nevertheless, the United
States was not content with that interpretation. And the United States said that we had a right to create a
channel, a separate channel in the straight of Hormuz that was outside the
purview of the Iranians uh in which we could in effect escort ships through the
strait. The Iranians said this was unacceptable. And uh it's that disagreement which
flared up into a fight uh that has put us in a situation now where we have this
tit fortat set of bombing campaigns or
bombing endeavors on a daily basis that you described before. Uh I would just add to
that President Trump has also decided to reinstate the blockade of uh the strait
and of course the Iranians have uh reinstated their blockade of the strait.
So in a very important way we're back to where we were uh on the 16th of June,
the day before the memorandum of understanding was signed.
Yeah. Well, uh, there there's evidence this is already having a a pretty big
impact. Professor Mirshimer, we have, according to Reuters, no super tankers
or any LG carriers passed through the strait in the last day. We also have reports that international shipping
firms are shunning the Omani uh corridor now over failure to protect vessels. Uh
this comes after Iran did uh strike two super tankers and reportedly also the
port of Fujira uh in recent days. Uh what kind of impact will this have first
arr puts out a report about the its strikes?
It says this is all about degrading Iran's ability to control the straight
of Hormuz or to endanger shipping in the straight of Hormuz. What do you make of
this? Is this at all possible? Is the United States succeeding in this realm?
Well, it is clear that the United States has not been able to rest control of the
straits from the Iranians. The Iranians clearly control the straight of Hormuz.
And if they decide that no ships will be allowed in or out of the Persian Gulf,
uh they can pretty much make that happen. and there's not much we can do
about it. I think that's quite clear. What has happened here over the past few
months that's very important to understand is that the Saudis and the UAE have
opened up pipelines that are designed to get oil
out of the Gulf but not go through the straight of Hormuz.
So, everybody says that 20% of the world's oil and gas comes out of the
straight. Uh, there's no question that that was true uh on February 28th when
the war started. [snorts] But what's happened since then is I
would estimate about 7% of the world's oil that had been coming
from Saudi Arabia and the United Emirates is still coming out. So a huge
chunk of that 20% is coming out through pipelines. There's a pipeline that goes
across Saudi Arabia uh to a port called Yanbu which is on the Red Sea and then
that oil leaves Yanboo goes through the Red Sea and out into world markets and
then with regard to uh the UAE, the Emirates, uh they have a pipeline that
goes to Fujiro which you were talking about uh and between Fujara and Yanboo,
uh I would say about 7% of the world's oil continues to flow. So we've not cut
off 20% of the world's oil from the Gulf. We've only cut off 13%.
Now what's happening is that it appears quite clear that the Iranians have shut
down Fujira that there is no more oil coming out of Fujyra. And furthermore,
the Iranians have just told the Houthies that it's getting close to time to shut
down the Red Sea, which means that the Saudi oil, which comes out of Yanboo, will not come out of Yanbu or will not
come out of the Red Sea anymore. Uh, and this is all as the uh uh article you
just put up on the screen shows, Iran asked the Houthies to close Ben
al-Mandab, that's the straight at the end of the Red Sea, if the US attacks power network. Well, President Trump has
promised to attack the Iranian power network next week. And that means that
the Houthies will shut down the Red Sea. So that 7% that has been getting out
through the pipelines in Saudi Arabia and the UAE will not get out anymore.
And that 7% really matters for preventing the international economy
from going off a cliff. So what is going on right now is very consequential.
Yeah, most definitely. And uh I pulled up the report from Reuters shared by
Middle East about the potential closure of the Baba Mendep Strait and here is
the report. This is the Times of Israel. Reuters was behind a very strong payw wall. Uh Trump said that he's leaning
toward expanding a military offensive against Iran uh saying it better behave
and this is including briefs on hitting energy infrastructure as well as
possible ground operations. Professor Mirshimer. Now, this was Iran's response uh from the headquarters of the Iranian
military, saying that any infrastructure that's hit will be uh will be responded
to with infrastructure hits of their own on the Gulf and the region. Uh
infrastructure for infrastructure as the Iranian military is putting it. So, President V, help evaluate
the uh trajectory here. The United States says it is on the way toward
victory against Iran with these renewed strikes, but Iran is showing a pretty
strong capacity to respond defensively as it says uh against these attacks.
What do you make of this growing situation? Let me make a couple points, Danny.
First of all, the United States and Israel represent an existential threat
to Iran. So, the Iranians are not going to cave
here. They're going to fight to the last person. Uh the idea that the Iranians
are softies and a little bit of power, American military power here or there
will get them to throw up their hands is delusional. It's just not going to happen. These are really
uh tough-nosed, hard-nosed individuals in charge in Iran and uh they're going
to fight to the finish. So, they're not going to give up. But let's talk about
the possible strategies that we have for winning the war. Let's accept the fact
that they're not going to give up, but maybe we can win the war. Uh it all
started with a bombing campaign that lasted four days. It was a strategic bombing campaign
and uh it was waged by the Israelis and the Americans on one side and the Iranians on the other side. Why did we
quit after 40 days? We quit after 40 days on April 8th because we could not
win the war with that strategic bombing campaign. Very important to understand
that the strategic bombing campaign failed. Then on April 13th, we went to a
blockade. The blockade lasted until June 17th when we signed the memorandum of
understanding. The blockade failed. Not only did the air campaign, but the
blockade also failed to get the Iranians to dance to our tune.
Now, we used air power, we use naval power.
Then there's the possibility of land power. People talk about uh an invasion
of Iran. This is not a serious argument. I can't believe anybody pays attention to it. How many combat troops do we have
in the Middle East or in the Persian Gulf? I'd guessed that we have at the
most 6,000. Uh the idea that we can do anything in
terms of invading Iran with 6,000 troops is laughable. You know, people use the
number 50,000. They say there 50,000 American troops in the region. The
question is not how many overall numbers what the over the question is not what the overall number of troops in the
region is. The question is how many combat troops do you have? How many marines and how many army infantry do
you have? How many trigger pullers do you have? That's the question you have to ask yourself. We don't even have
10,000 of those. We're talking about a country, Iran, that has 93 million people, that has a formidable military
capability and that has terrain that is forbidding. The idea that we're going to invade this country and conquer it or
conquer significant parts of it with a small force like that, again, it's not a
serious argument. So, we have no land option. the C option which is the
blockade failed and the strategic bombing campaign failed. So what are we
involved in now? We're involved in tit fortat strategies. This is not a strategic bombing campaign. And in fact,
if you listen to what President Trump is saying, he in a way is threatening to go
back to the strategic bombing campaign next week when he talks about going after bridges, power stations, and so
forth and so on. That's the strategic bombing campaign. But that's not what's happening now. What is happening is that
both sides are engaged in a tit for tra tit fortat strategy. These are limited
strikes on the other side. Now the question you have to ask yourself is do
you think this is going to work? Do you think a tit fortat strategy is likely to
bring the Iranians to their knees? It's not going to work. If a massive air
campaign like the one we launched uh during the for first 40 days of the war
didn't work, please explain to me how a tit fortat strategy is going to work.
And by the way, and we can go into this in some detail, I think the Iranians are
doing more damage to US assets than the
United States is doing to Iranian assets. And if I'm wrong, that just
means it's a wash that both sides are beating up on the other side and neither
side has an advantage. But I think the Iranians have an advantage in this tit fortat set of exchanges.
So what do we do to win this war? Again,
you want to remember that the Iranians are tough ombres. We are up against formidable adversaries. Number one.
Number two, strategic bombing doesn't work. Number two, a blockade doesn't work. Number three, we have no land
option. And number four, tit for tat is not going to work. All of this tells you
we are playing a losing hand. And by the way, this is why President Trump signed
a memorandum of understanding on June 17th. As I said before, that was a
surrender document. Why? Because the Iranians had won the war. He then
decided he was unsatisfied with the memorandum of understanding and he was going to figure out some sort of clever
way uh to obviate it to win to get a better deal whatever and he's now
engaged in this tit fortat strategy. He's reinstated the blockade, but I do
not see how this is going to lead to a success for President Trump and he's
ultimately going to have to reach a deal with Iran where Iran wins.
Professor M. Shmer. Yeah, maybe we can get into uh some details about what exactly gives Iran the advantage here in
this newest uh iteration of the United States's attempt to defeat Iran through
war. Because there are some who watch this program, others I've seen comment
talk about their concerns about Iran's approach and uh some concerns even that
they've lost leverage. But I'm curious on what you see as Iran's advantage here
in lie of these concerns I've been seeing and even receiving messages about. Well, I've long argued that the
longer the war goes on um the better off Iran is. If you're talking about the
balance of coercive leverage, the longer the straight is closed and the less oil
that gets out of the Middle East, the more damage that does to the world economy, uh, the more damage it does to
the American economy and to President Trump's political fortunes. And he's
going to reach a point at some time where at some he's going to reach a point where he has to uh reach an
agreement. Uh this is what happened uh back on June 17th. Remember President
Trump said, "I signed the memorandum of understanding because I thought if I didn't, we would face," and these were
his words, "An economic catastrophe." That's what he said. And he also said explicitly that he didn't want to be
Herbert Hoover. He said that in the context of signing the June 17th
agreement. Well, that basic [snorts] uh the basic dynamic that led him to sign
the memorandum of understanding and say those things still applies. So, all
that's to say he's going to have to reach some sort of agreement with the
Iranians sooner rather than later because the economic consequences of
doing so would be disastrous. And that would be especially true if he ups the ante next week and goes after Iranian
power plants and then the Iranians uh working with the Houthies shut down the Red Sea. This would be disastrous,
right? So Trump is going to have to cut a deal. Uh there's just no way around
that. He has no way of winning. Uh what's the leverage that Trump has? the
leverage is that he can do great damage over time uh to the Iranian economy. Uh
I think there's no question he can do real damage. But the point is that the
Iranians have been suffering enormously under American sanctions and they've
been suffering enormously in this war. uh and all that tells you that they're
used to suffering and they have figured out all sorts of clever ways to minimize
the amount of suffering that they undergo. And uh furthermore, as I said
to you before, they're facing an existential threat. And when you're facing an existential threat, you're willing to absorb huge amounts of
punishment. Just think about the bombing of Japan and the bombing of Germany in
World War II. We with that massive strategic bombing campaign in Germany
and that massive strategic bombing campaign in Japan could not bring the Japanese and the Germans to their knees.
We inflicted massive punishments on both societies. But the people were willing to uh suck it up and uh and go on. And
the same thing will happen here with regard to the Iranians. They're not going to quit. Not at this point in
time. Uh, and for anybody who has any doubts about that, all you have to do is watch the film footage of the funeral of
Ayatollah Hamini, right? The Iranians are not going to quit this fight. So, we
don't have real coercive leverage. They have coercive leverage because they can
do enormous damage to the international economy. And you might say, well, President Trump
can go up the escalation ladder and we can beat them that way. On the contrary,
if he goes up the escalation ladder, if he attacks power plants and bridges next week, uh they're going to work, the
Iranians are going to work with the Houthis to shut down the Red Sea. This will be disastrous for us. And
furthermore, if he begins to go after uh the the the oil producing facilities in
uh Iran, the Iranians will retaliate against the oil producing facilities and
maybe even the desalination plants in countries like Saudi Arabia, the UAE, uh
Kuwait and so forth and so on. Uh the Iranians are playing a very strong hand
here, a much stronger hand than the United States is.
I've heard Professor Mirimer Mir Shimer that the United States because and and the Trump administration says this all
the time and and was saying this in the middle of the most crisis especially uh
the middle of the 40 days of hostilities you referenced earlier saying something
to the effect of well we don't need the strait because we're an independent oil producer and a lot of there are even
some critics of US foreign policy who look at this and say well the United
States is willing to sacrifice this trade it's willing to even sacrifice uh energy in the Gulf in order to uh you
know uh bring down Iran and to even corner energy markets uh on its own. Uh
what would you say to this argument? Because I I'm seeing it more and more, especially the longer this war goes on,
I'm seeing it more and more be talked about and argued by even those who are
critical of what the United States is doing here. It's belied by American behavior. Let's
go back to the June 17th memorandum of understanding. It said article 5 that
Iran controls the strait and the future of of the strait will be negotiated
between Oman and Iraq. That's what it said. The United States is not mentioned
in the discussion of the strait in article 5. Well, if the strait doesn't
matter to the United States, why did they care about article 5? Why
was the United States so interested in undermining the memorandum of
understanding, which is what we did, by contesting the Iranians over the street. We wanted
to have real influence on who got into and out of the straight.
We were the ones who went to great lengths uh to open up the Omani channel
uh that ran along the Omani coast. We put enormous pressure on the Omanis to
side with us against the Iranians. The Romania the Omanis by almost all
accounts were inclined to work with the Iranians to negotiate some sort of deal
uh for monitoring traffic through the straighter hormuz. We were the ones who undermined
uh any possible um negotiations between
the Omanis and the Iranians because we cared greatly about the strait and we
cared greatly about having a channel in the straight that we effectively controlled. So all this rhetoric you
hear uh bears little resemblance to reality.
Now I want to ask you about uh more about Yemen. uh because not only the Babel Mendde Strait situation being a
possible focal point for both Iranian and maybe we call the axis of resistances retaliation against further
US escalation but also there are reports uh and we've seen earlier this week that
the United States gave a blessing to Saudi Arabia to attack Iran, attack its
airport and then and then I mean to attack Yemen and then Ansarah the Houthis responded did quite forcefully
against Saudi Arabia on its own. Now they're saying that they are going to uh
uh attack vital Saudi facilities uh if Saudi Arabia continues aggression
against Yemen. So my question to you is why did Trump give a green light and a
blessing for Saudi Arabia to engage in this aggression with of course US help?
And I I I'm I'm curious on what you believe the play here. Why why do this?
Especially at this very sensitive moment where uh uh the there is obviously a
plan or at least thoughts of escalation which could lead to the very outcomes that you've described here.
Well, the I think the even more important question, Danny, which is not to say your question is not an important
one, but the more important question is why did the Saudis why did the Saudis attack the airport in
Yemen? The Houthy controlled airport in Yemen? Why did the Saudis pick a fight
with the Houthis who not only can strike back at Saudi Arabia, but who basically
can shut down the Red Sea because they live right next door to the Babal
Mandabub Strait? It would just seem to me crazy for the Saudis to pick a fight
with the Iranians, excuse me, with the u with [snorts] the Houthis who are allied
with the Iranians. If anything, at this point in time, what the Saudis should be
interested in doing is staying out of the fight. you know, being nice as
possible to the Iranians, being nice as possible uh to the Houthis. But what
happened here is that a plane came from Tran uh with a delegation filled mainly
with a delegation of uh Houthis who had been at the funeral of Ayatollah Hani.
uh and they landed uh at this Houthy controlled airport or they tried to land at this Houthy controlled airport and
the Saudis shot up the airport before they could land there forcing them to
divert to another airfield. Uh why would the Saudis do this? Then of course what
the the Yemenes or the Houthis did was they automatically retaliated against Saudi Arabia and began to talk
about shutting down uh the Red Sea and preventing all of that Saudi oil from
getting out into global markets. So that is I find hard to explain. I just don't
know what they were thinking. Uh, and then your question is why did the Trump
administration give the Saudis the green light? That's hard to understand as well
because the United States has a vested interest in not picking a fight with the Houthis and keeping the Red Sea open. By
the way, you remember we picked a fight with the Houthies uh in March of 2025.
Remember, President Trump comes into office January 20th, 2025.
Two months later, he decides he's going to go in and beat up on the Houthies and
put them in their place. Uh, sleepy Joe Biden couldn't do it, but he'll do it.
By May, he realized the Houthies were tough ombres and that he was not going
to win, and he backed off. And uh uh he
should have learned then that you don't want to pick a fight with the Houthies, especially since they can shut down the
Red Sea. or traffic coming out of the Red Sea. U and uh nevertheless, it
appears that President Trump uh gave the Saudis a green light to pick a fight
with the Houthies who are closely allied with the Iranians, which from a strategic point of view, as
you and I both know, makes no sense. So if you're asking me to explain why the
Saudis did what they did and why President Trump did what he did, I have
no good answer. And if we remember that period uh during
that war that the United States wage on the Houthis, we saw the USS Harry
Truman. I believe one of the big reasons why they stopped the United States did is because uh the USS Harry Truman
aircraft carrier had to make evasive maneuvers several times during that period to evade Yemen onsarah Houthi
missiles and lost a few uh F-18 fighter jets which are quite expensive actually.
So um that was a big deal. Can I make one other point there? Of course. what you say is obviously
very important but there's another dimension to that conflict against the
Houthies that bears mentioning because it has relevance for what's going on uh with regard to these tit fortat attacks
between Iran and the United States. Another reason that we put an end to the
war against the Houthies is that we were using huge amounts of precious weaponry
or precious munitions in the campaign against the Houthis. And we began
[clears throat] to realize this was not a smart thing to do, especially since it did not look like we were going to win
uh the war against the Houthies. And by the way, this is just like the 40-day
bombing campaign. One of the principal reasons that the 40-day bombing campaign came to an end is we were expending huge
numbers of precious munitions, similar to what happened with the Houthis. Fast
forward to the present where you have this tit fortat set of exchanges taking
place and where President Trump is talking about going up the escalation ladder next week. This same logic is at
play again. As I said to you before, the dynamics, the underlying dynamics that
produced the 17 June memorandum of understanding have not gone away. And
the last thing we need is a protracted tit fortat war where we end up basically
using up all of these precious munitions that we need in other contingencies
around the world especially East Asia. So this
set of considerations involving munitions is another important factor pushing
President Trump to put an end to this war as quickly as possible. In other words, it's not just the international
economy. It's not just the damage that might be done to the Gulf States. It's
also the fact that we are using up so many weapons uh that are in our
inventory and it will take uh forever in a day to replace.
I wanted to ask you for Sher about Israel's role in all of this. Interestingly enough, despite being
incredibly passionate about restarting the war, Israel was never in favor of
theou was never in favor of talks with Iran, wanted the war that lasted 40 days
to continue on with no pause. But they have uh been sidelined almost in many
respects in this tit fortat that you describe. Uh there hasn't been many reports, if any, of Israeli involvement
in these strikes and I'm curious on what you believe Israel's role is right now.
What is its current situation given the fact that it has just said, Netanyahu
has said that they're not going to withdraw. There will be no withdrawal from Lebanon, from Syria despite reports that Trump has wanted this. um and uh
you know they have been the pre-minent champions of this war yet appear to be at least for now looking at it from the
sidelines. Yeah, this is a great question. This is an issue that doesn't get a lot of attention these days. The Israelis in a
way have been sidelined in terms of the discourse about the ongoing conflict between
uh the United States and Iran. And it's paradoxical because the United because
the Israelis played such an important role in getting the United States involved in this war and they played
such an important role in the 40-day bombing campaign, but now they don't
seem to matter much uh in terms of the US Iran conflict.
Couple points. One is I think the Israelis understand that if they get
involved in the fight, they then become a target for Iranian ballistic missiles
and Iranian cruise missiles. And it's very important to understand that if you
go back to the 40-day war, although the Israelis went to enormous lengths to hide the fact that their country was
really clobbered by all of those Iranian missiles and drones, the fact is they
were clobbered. We now know that. Uh, so the Israelis are not anxious to get back
in the fight and become a giant magnet for Iranian ballistic missiles and
drones. From their point of view, it's much better if the Iranians are firing at Bahrain, Kuwait, and Jordan and not
at Israel. And it's better from an Israeli point of view if they can pass
the book to the United States to do the heavy lifting in terms of damaging or
weakening Iran. So what the Israelis are doing is sitting on the sideline and
they have passed the buck and this is in the context of the US Iran conflict.
The next point I would make is that what they really care about at this point in time is Lebanon and to a lesser extent
Syria. And they want to fight against Hezbollah and badly damage if not defeat
Hezbollah in southern Lebanon. And by staying out of the Iran US fight uh or
staying out of a direct fight with Iran, that frees them up to concentrate on dealing with Hezbollah. And as you know
well, Danny, they are up to their eyeballs and alligators in terms of dealing with uh Hezbollah and southern
Iran. Hezbollah is another formidable adversary. So the Israelis prefer to
concentrate on uh southern Lebanon. And of course they're also interested in uh
taking territory and consolidating their position in southern Syria as well. Uh
now let me make one additional point on this whole subject. Uh going back to the
memorandum of understanding we've talked a lot about article five which deals with the strait but article one deals
with Lebanon. And you want to remember this is the first article in the memorandum.
It's quite clear that the Iranians wanted this to be the first article. Uh
it deals with Lebanon and the Iranians maintain that the fighting has to stop
in Lebanon and [snorts] they also maintain that um the Israelis have to
get out of southern Lebanon. And of course, the Israelis have made it clear they have no intention of getting out of
southern Lebanon or getting out of southern Syria. I think Danny, when we get back to
negotiating again, when President Trump gets back to negotiating again with the
Iranians, that the Iranians are going to play tougher this time on the southern
Lebanon issue than they did last time. I think after the 17 June memorandum of
understanding was signed, it looked like the Iranians were willing to look the
other way on the issue of Israel abandoning southern Lebanon. I think
that was the one issue that the Iranians did not appear to be committed to
defending. I would imagine the next time you have a negotiation
that what you're going to see is that the Iranians are going to play hard ball with the Americans on the presence of
Israel in southern Lebanon. And the Israelians are likely to say, "We're not
going to negotiate until you get the Israelis out of southern Lebanon." Period. End of story. Now, I'm not
saying that's axiomatically going to happen, but my sense is that the Iranians are going to be tougher
customers to deal with moving forward than they were when we were in the
process of putting together the June 17 memorandum of understanding, which is
consistent with my argument, Danny, that with the passage of time,
the course of leverage that the Iranians have increases. In other words, the
balance of coercive leverage between the United States and the Iranians
moves in Iran's direction as time goes by. And that, of course, is what's
happening. So, I wouldn't be surprised if next time uh we see uh the Iranians
playing uh uh acting in a tougher way uh
with regard to southern Lebanon and the Israeli military presence in southern Lebanon.
Uh I wanted to ask you about what you believe uh the trajectory for the United
States's hijgemony as well as uh Israel's dream of hijgemony. They call
it greater Israel uh in the region. I wanted to ask you this question in lie
of these comments made by Donald Trump today about uh his reactions to the fact
that he's claiming NATO and many US allies are refusing to help in the latest uh iteration of this war.
This um just in President Trump on Truth Social saying we no longer need or
desire the NATO country's assistance. We never did. Likewise Japan, Australia or
South Korea. In fact, speaking as president of the United States of America, by far the most powerful
country anywhere in the world, we do not need the help of anyone. News Nation's joke on this um
so that was his reaction to the fact and he made other comments at this defense forum, defense industry forum in
Pennsylvania saying something to the effect of South Korea is not helping us despite US troops being stationed there
and in danger by North Korea and Kim Jong-un and all of this. But more
importantly to the to the notion of you know how is this war impacting the
United States and Israel who both have ambitions to uh be hegemonic to be all
powerful to expand their power. Is that what's happening here? Let me just start by saying that the
argument that the United States doesn't need allies is ludicrous.
I mean, the United States considers China to be the principal threat on the planet. The United States is deeply
committed to pivoting to Asia for the purposes of containing China. The idea that we don't need allies to do that. Uh
I suppose if President Trump had been the head of the United States in the late 1940s and 1950s, uh he would not
have created NATO because he didn't think he needed allies to contain the Soviet Union. Uh this is not a smart
argument. In fact, it's nonsensical. Uh so it's just another one of those statements that President Trump has made
that makes you really wonder what he thinking, what he is thinking uh about
how the world works. Uh with regard to the US and Israel, I think there's no
question that Israel was bent on being the dominant power in the Middle East uh
and doing everything it could to weaken all its potential adversaries or if not
weaken them, make them dependent on the United States. uh as we know well uh
both Egypt and Jordan uh and even now Syria uh are heavily dependent on the
United States which uh works to Israel's advantage uh for sure. We also know that
uh Israel would like to see countries uh big countries in the region greatly
weakened. Uh there's no question that Israel was not simply interested in
regime change in Iran. They really wanted to break Iran into pieces. Uh they wanted to greatly weaken Iran so
that Israel uh was militarily much more powerful than Iran. Uh and as many
people have observed, the Israelis are now talking about Turkey as a major threat. Well, Turkeyy's another one of
those big countries in the greater Middle East. And unsurprisingly, the Israelis have their gun sights now on
Turkey. Uh, and this is all part and parcel of Israel's interest in becoming
a regional hegeimon dominating the Middle East. Uh, this is not going to
happen. And if anything, the Iran war uh has done an enormous amount of damage to
Israel's pursuit of that vision because Iran is going to come out of this war
much more powerful than it was on February 27th. Uh from the point of view
of Israel, this war, the war between Iran on one side and the United States
on and Israel on the other side has been a strategic disaster. No goals have been achieved. Um Iran now controls the
straight of Hormuz. And if a final deal is worked out, Iran will get all sorts of economic benefits that will help it
grow its power in the future. So the idea that Israel is going to be a regional hegeimon is no longer uh even
possible. And of course the Turks are not going to let that happen either. The idea that Israel is going to weaken
Turkey uh do great damage to Turkey I believe is not in the cards either. Uh
with regard to the United States, uh I think the interesting question is whether or not the United States will
stay in the Middle East and specifically will it stay in the Persian Gulf once
this war comes to an end. Uh the question is will we think it makes strategic sense to rebuild our bases in
places like Bahrain uh and Kuwait and so forth and so on. And moreover, will
those six GCC countries want us there?
Uh given that we uh created this war that has led to a tremendous amount of
destruction in each of their countries, uh it's not clear they'll want our bases
there. So, it remains an open question what happens to America's bases in the
region and America's alliance structure in the region. Well, this is a way of
saying that from an American and especially from an Israeli point of view
uh this war has been a disaster. Now there is an audience uh members
question I did want to ask uh people have been very curious on your opinions on what the role of China is right now
in the uh US Iran war. You know there have been many theories about what China
is doing. Some have said that China is even, you know, pushing Iran to lay off certain targets, to not escalate, to
maybe be more amendable to negotiations. I haven't seen any ev evidence of that. I know you've traveled to ch China several times. I've been several times.
I haven't seen any evidence that that's something that would be necessarily in their interest, but nonetheless, there
are interests here uh for China in terms of stability. So, I'm wondering what your opinion is, if you have any insight
into what China's role uh in uh this conflict. uh is right now if any.
Yeah. Well, I don't know exactly what Chinese policy makers are thinking uh about uh Iran, but it does seem clear to
me that Iran, Russia, and China are all mortal enemies
of the United States. I'm choosing my words carefully here. I think that the
United States is interested in seriously damaging all three of those countries. U
and I think when you're in a situation like that situation that Iran, China, and Russia
are in, you have a deep-seated interest in working together to make sure that
you styy the United States. Uh, China has a deep-seated interest,
for example, in making sure that the United States does not defeat the Russians in Ukraine. Uh, furthermore,
both Russia and China have a deep-seated interest in making sure that the United
States loses in its war against Iran. It would
be to their advantage for sure. And therefore you see all sorts of evidence
that the Iranians are receiving important kinds of intelligence from
both the Chinese and the Russians. There are all sorts of reports of Chinese and
Russian weapons being sent to the Iranians because again the Chinese and
the Russians don't want to see Iran lose. And of course, Iran has a
deep-seated interest in working with China and Russia as well. to take this a
step further because the question had mainly to do with China. If you're China
and you're worried about having the United States in your backyard, having
the United States in your face, if you're worried about the United States pivoting to Asia, uh to contain you, uh
the idea that the United States gets sidetracked by launching a war in the
Middle East that turns into a protracted war is wonderful news.
The war in Iran has caused the United States to pivot away from East Asia so
that it has sufficient forces in the Persian Gulf to fight against Iran. This
is mana from heaven for the Iranians. I mean, excuse me, for the Chinese. So the
Chinese in a very important way have a vested interest in not only seeing the
war uh not only seeing the United States lose the war but seeing the war go on
and on because it pins the United States down in
the Middle East. So I think the net effect of this war is a win for China.
Yeah. Yeah. Which always made me curious about, you know, some have noted that perhaps, you know, China has a very good
relationship with Pakistan and some have noted that maybe it would be China
through Pakistan pushing for negotiations and pushing for an end to the war. But at the same time, uh
Pakistan itself has a deep interest in not having this war spiral out of control. Not least because it's
balancing relations with Iran and the fact that even just today there were top military leaders saying that if Iran
attacks Saudi Arabia for example, if this energy uh tit fortat the infrastructure for infrastructure
actually goes through then Pakistan may be actually compelled to follow their militarytoilitary agreement uh that
Saudi Arabia and Pakistan have. So uh I think you know I'm curious on your response to this that sometimes I feel
like people uh maybe dismiss the role of even these intermediaries like a
Pakistan which has interests of its own and is actually in the region unlike China which is still not in the region
despite its interest as you said deep interest in ensuring that uh or at least
deep interest in allowing the United States to continue on its uh you know foray and endless war in this part of
the Well, I think the question you have to ask yourself, uh, Danny, is
what would Pakistan gain by coming into a fight between Saudi Arabia and Iran?
Let's assume the Iranians attack Saudi Arabia and the Saudis retaliate and you
have a significant tit fortat campaign between the two of them. Uh there's no
question the Americans are going to side with the Saudis. So it's not like the Saudis are going to be left out in the
cold. The Saudis will have American support. Uh what's the value added
from Pakistan's point of view of getting involved? I mean, are they going to tip
the balance against Iran? I don't think so. Are they going to matter very much
in terms of who wins the fight? I don't think so. And are they going to cause
themselves a lot of headaches uh in the sense that they're going to alienate the Iranians?
Uh I think the answer is yes. And therefore I think if I'm playing
Pakistan's hand uh and a fight breaks out between Saudi Arabia and Iran, I do
not want to get involved. Uh it's not in my strategic interest and I'm talking here from a Pakistani point of view. So
I don't see that happening. And given you noted that Iran, Russia
and China are very connected here in terms of US uh ambitions and aims. Uh
I'm curious on your thoughts about how this current iteration of the war uh on
Iran, how that affects the other flash points in the world, in particular
Ukraine, because the United States has rhetorically seemingly turned an eye
away from it. But that war is still very much raging and and the trajectory of it I don't see having changed all that much
despite the fact or at all despite the fact that there's been I think a massive media spin attempting to frame it as now
Russia on the back foot. So I'm curious if you believe that this uh uh ongoing Iran war will impact what's happening uh
with Ukraine and other parts of the geopolitical map. Well, I think that when you talk about
the Ukraine war, you have to separate what's happening on the battlefield from
this long range drone campaign that the Ukrainians are waging uh against the
Russian homeland. I think if you look at what's happening on the battlefield, I think the Russians
are winning. Uh I think the Ukrainians are in trouble. Uh and uh I think
there's no question that the uh Russians are not winning quickly. Uh it's a slow
victory. There's no question about that. But the Russians uh are rolling slowly
rolling up the Ukrainians. The Ukrainians have huge manpower problems
which is affecting their performance on the battlefield. and all evidence uh tells us that they're not able to solve
the manpower problem which is just getting worse because the draft resistance problem is increasing inside
of Ukraine itself. So I think in terms of the battlefield the Russians are on the march. Uh it's the long range
drone war that Ukraine is waging with help from uh the Europeans and the
United States against the Russians that most people in the West and in Ukraine
see as Ukraine's ace in the hole. Uh this is how Ukraine can get a favorable
outcome to the war. And if you look at what President Trump
said and how he acted in France in mid June at the G7 meeting and then you look
at what he said and how he acted in early July at the NATO meeting in
Ankura, it looks like President Trump uh has recommitted himself
to trying to do great damage to Russia.
uh with this drone campaign. Uh President Trump seems to be very enthusiastic about this long range drone
campaign that the Ukrainians are waging against Russia and he wants to support
it. Uh you know, if you look at the declaration that the G7 issued, this was
on June 17th after the meeting in France. Uh what the G7 country said, and
of course this of course this includes the United States and President Trump was that what we're going to do is we're
going to accelerate, think about that word, we're going to accelerate our efforts to help Ukraine wage the long
range drone war. Furthermore, it said that we were going to continue to push
hard to do more damage to the Russian economy.
Uh, this clearly signifies to me that President Trump is still in the fight
against Russia in Ukraine. You remember last August, August 2025, this was
during his first year in office, he went to Anchorage where he met Putin and it
looked like that it looked like Russia and the United States were going to have some sort of major promont as a result
of this meeting in Anchorage and that continued to be the case through most of 2025. But if you look at what's happened
in 2026, especially what's happened at the G7 meeting, at the NATO meeting, it looks
to me like President Trump has done pretty much a 180°ree turn. And this
tells you that uh this one is going to be settled on the battlefield. Uh and uh
there I think the Russians are going to win. And that then leaves open the
question, what happens if the drone war uh really begins to have a serious
effect uh on the Russian economy and on Russian public opinion? What will the
Russians then do? Will they escalate? How will they escalate? Uh this is a
huge question. And all of this just tells you that we have two ongoing wars.
one in Ukraine and one in the Middle East that could have disastrous
consequences. Oh, yes indeed. Well, I think that's a
great place to end the program. First, Mir Shimemer, do you have any uh final words before we end the show today?
I just hope all my analysis is wrong and that uh for reasons I just didn't see
everything works out swimmingly in the Gulf and we get a negotiated settlement
there and we get a negotiated settlement in Ukraine. But uh I'm sad to say I
don't see how you can tell a plausible story as to how you end up uh with
meaningful peace agreements in either one of those regions. Uh I think what
you see is trouble for as far as the eye can see and this is thoroughly
depressing. Well, I want to thank everyone for uh giving a super chat who gave a super
chat. I want to thank everyone who uh viewed today and all the moderators who helped out with the chat. Um and uh just
quickly tomorrow I'll be back on 12:00 noon Eastern time July 17th with Pepe Escobar. Person Shimemer was great to be
with you. We can head out together. Everyone hit the like button. That will keep the stream boosted after we are
done.

[admin]

Pepe Escobar: Iran SMASHES Bahrain-Saudi Bridge, F-35 EMERGENCY as Trump GOES MAD
Danny Haiphong
Streamed live 3 hours ago #iran #iranwar #trump

Pepe Escobar discusses Trump's unthinkable escalation in the Iran war as Iran expands its missile & drone target back overnight. Pepe Escobar is a geopolitical analyst, independent journalist, and author.