Ice melt, sea level rise and superstorms: evidence from pale

Hard to overstate the significance of this topic. Unfortunately, the material in here will become more and more depressing as time goes on. Not much hope of any alternative to that.

Re: Ice melt, sea level rise and superstorms: evidence from

Postby admin » Sun May 01, 2016 5:07 am

Part 1 of 2


Abdalati, W., Krabill, W., Frederick, E., Manizade, S., Martin, C., Sonntag, J., Swift, R., Thomas, R., Yungel, J., and Koerner, R.: Elevation changes of ice caps in the Canadian Arctic Archipelago, J. Geophy. Res., 109, F04007, doi:10.1029/2003JF000045, 2004.

Adkins, J. F., Boyle, E. A., Keigwin, L., and Cortijo, E.: Variability of the North Atlantic thermohaline circulation during the last interglacial period, Nature, 390, 154–156, 1997.

Ahn, J., Brrok, E.J., Schmittner, A., and Kreutz, K.: Abrupt change in atmospheric CO2 during the last ice age, Geophys. Res. Lett., 39, L18711, doi:10.1029/2012GL053018, 2012.

Alley, R. B., Dupont, T. K., Parizek, B. R., Anandakrishnan, S., Lawson, D. E., Larson, G. J., and Evenson, E. B.: Outburst flooding and the initiation of ice-stream surges in response to climatic cooling: a hypothesis, Geomorphology, 75, 76–89, 2006.

Álvarez-Solas, J., Charbit, S., Ritz, C., Paillard, D., Ramstein, G., and Dumas, C.: Links between ocean temperature and iceberg discharge during Heinrich events, Nat. Geosci., 3, 122–126, 2010.

Álvarez-Solas, J., Montoya, M., Ritz, C., Ramstein, G., Charbit, S., Dumas, C., Nisancioglu, K., Dokken, T., and Ganopolski, A.: Heinrich event 1: an example of dynamical ice-sheet reaction to oceanic changes, Clim. Past, 7, 1297–1306, doi:10.5194/cp- 7-1297-2011, 2011.

Álvarez-Solas, J., Robinson, A., Montoya, M., and Ritz, C.: Iceberg discharges of the last glacial period driven by oceanic circulation changes, Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 110, 16350–16354, 2013.

Anderson, R. F., Ali, S., Bradtmiller, L. I., Nielsen, S. H. H., Fleisher, M., Andersen, B., and Burckle, L.: Wind-driven upwelling in the Southern Ocean and the deglacial rise in atmospheric CO2, Science, 323, 1443–1448, 2009.

Antonov, J. I., Seidov, D., Boyer, T. P., Locarnini, R. A., Mishonov, A. V., Garcia, H. E., Baranova, O. K., Zweng, M. M., and Johnson, D. R.: World Ocean Atlas 2009, Vol. 2: Salinity, NOAA At las NESDIS 68, edited by: Levitus, S., US Government Printing Office, Washington, DC, 184 pp., 2010.

Archer, D.: Fate of fossil fuel CO2 in geologic time, J. Geophys. Res., 110, C09505, doi:10.1029/2004JC002625, 2005.

Archer, D., Winguth, A., Lea, D., and Mahowald, N.: What caused the glacial/interglacial atmospheric CO2 cycles?, Rev. Geophys., 38, 159–189, 2000.

Bahr, D. B., Dyurgerov, M., and Meier, M. F.: Sea-level rise from glaciers and ice caps: a lower bound, Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L03501, doi:10.1029/2008GL036309, 2009.

Bain, R. J. and Kindler, P.: Irregular fenestrae in Bahamian eolianites: a rainstorm-induced origin, J. Sediment. Petrol., A64, 140– 146, 1994.

Baringer, M. O., Johns, W. E., McCarthy, G., Willis, J., Garzoli, S., Lankhortst, M., Meinen, C. S., Send, U., Hobbs,W. R., Cunningham, S. A., Rayner, D., Smeed, D. A., Kanzow, T. O., Heimbach, P., Frajka-Williams, E., Macdonald, A., Dong, S., and Marotzke, J.: Meridional overturning circulation and heat transport observations in the Atlantic Ocean, in Stae of the Climate in 2012, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 94, S65–S68, 2013.

Barletta, V. R., Sørensen, L. S., and Forsberg, R.: Scatter of mass changes estimates at basin scale for Greenland and Antarctica, The Cryosphere, 7, 1411–1432, doi:10.5194/tc-7-1411-2013, 2013.

Barreiro, M., Fedorov, A., Pacanowski, R., and Philander, S. G.: Abrupt climate changes: how freshening of the northern Atlantic affects the thermohaline and wind-driven oceanic circulations, Annu. Rev. Earth Pl. Sc., 36, 33–58, 2008.

Bauch, D., Holemann, J. A., Dmitrenko, I. A., Janout, M. A., Nikulina, A., Kirillov, S. A., Krumpen, T., Kassens, H., and Timokhov, L.: Impact of Siberian coastal polynyas on shelf-derived Arctic Ocean halocline waters, J. Geophys. Res., 117, C00G12, doi:10.1029/2011JC007282, 2012.

Bauch, H. A. and Erlenkeuser, H.: A “critical” climatic evaluation of the last interglacial (MIS 5e) records from the Norwegian Sea, Polar Res., 27, 135–151, 2008.

Bauch, H. A. and Kandiano, E. S.: Evidence for early warming and cooling in North Atlantic surface waters during the last interglacial, Paleoceanography, 22, PA1201, doi:10.1029/2005PA001252, 2007.

Bauch, H. A., Kandiano, E. S., and Helmke, J. P.: Contrasting ocean changes between the subpolar and polar North Atlantic during the past 135 ka, Geophys. Res. Lett., 39, L11604, doi:10.1029/2012GL051800, 2012.

Bazin, L., Landais, A., Lemieux-Dudon, B., Toyé Mahamadou Kele, H., Veres, D., Parrenin, F., Martinerie, P., Ritz, C., Capron, E., Lipenkov, V., Loutre, M.-F., Raynaud, D., Vinther, B., Svensson, A., Rasmussen, S. O., Severi, M., Blunier, T., Leuenberger, M., Fischer, H., Masson-Delmotte, V., Chappellaz, J., andWolff, E.: An optimized multi-proxy, multi-site Antarctic ice and gas orbital chronology (AICC2012): 120–800 ka, Clim. Past, 9, 1715– 1731, doi:10.5194/cp-9-1715-2013, 2013.

Belleflamme, A., Fettweis, X., and Erpicum, M.: Recent summer Arctic atmospheric circulation anomalies in a historical perspective, The Cryosphere, 9, 53–64, doi:10.5194/tc-9-53-2015, 2015. Benning, L. G., Anesio, A. M., Lutz, S., and Tranter, M.: Biological impact on Greenland’s albedo, Nat. Geosci., 7, 691, doi:10.1038/ngeo2260, 2014.

Berger, A. L.: Long-term variations of caloric insolation resulting from the Earth’s orbital elements, Quaternary Res., 9, 139–167, 1978.

Bintanja, R., van Oldenborgh, G. J., Drijfhout, S. S., Wouters, B., and Katsman, C. A.: Important role for ocean warming and increased ice-shelf melt in Antarctic sea-ice expansion, Nat. Geosci., 6, 376–379, 2013.

Blanchon, P., Eisenhauer, A., Fietzke, J., and Liebetrau, V.: Rapid sea-level rise and reef back-stepping at the close of the last interglacial highstand, Nature, 458, 881–885, 2009.

Box, J. E., Fettweis, X., Stroeve, J. C., Tedesco, M., Hall, D. K., and Steffen, K.: Greenland ice sheet albedo feedback: thermodynamics and atmospheric drivers, The Cryosphere, 6, 821–839, doi:10.5194/tc-6-821-2012, 2012.

Brauer, A., Allen, J. R. M., Minigram, J., Dulski, P., Wulf, S., and Huntley, B.: Evidence for last interglacial chronology and environmental change from Southern Europe, Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 104, 450–455, 2007.

Brayshaw, D. J., Woollings, T., and Vellinga, M.: Tropical and extratropical responses of the North Atlantic atmospheric circulation to a sustained weakening of the MOC, J. Climate, 22, 3146– 3155, 2009.

Broecker, W. S.: Terminations, in: Milankovitch and Climate, Part 2, edited by: Berger, A. L., Imbrie, J., Hays, J., Kukla, G., and Saltzman, B, D. Reidel, Norwell, MA, 687–698, 1984.

Broecker, W. S.: Salinity history of the northern Atlantic during the last deglaciation, Paleoceanography, 5, 459–467, 1990.

Broecker, W. S.: Paleocean circulation during the last deglaciation: A bipolar seesaw?, Paleoceanography, 13, 119–121, 1998.

Broecker,W. S.: Abrupt climate change: causal constraints provided by the paleoclimate record, Earth Sci. Rev., 51, 137–154, 2000.

Broecker, W. S.: Massive iceberg discharges as triggers for global climate change, Nature, 372, 421–424, 2002.

Broecker, W. S., Bond, G., Klas, M., Bonani, G., and Wolfli, W.: A salt oscillator in the glacial Atlantic? 1. The concept, Paleoceanography, 5, 469–477, 1990.

Bryan, F. O., Gent, P. R., and Tomas, R.: Can Southern Ocean eddy effects be parameterized in climate models?, J. Climate, 27, 411– 425, 2014.

Buizert, C., Gkinis, V., Severinghaus, J. P., He, F., Lecavalier, B. S., Kindler, P., Leuenberger, M., Carlson, A. E., Vinther, B., Masson-Delmotte, V., White, J. W. C., Liu, Z., Otto-Bliesner, B., and Brook, E .J.: Greenland temperature response to climate forcing during the last deglaciation, Science, 345, 1177–1180, 2014.

Burke, A. and Robinson, L. F.: The Southern Ocean’s role in carbon exchange during the last deglaciation, Science, 335, 557–561, 2012.

Capron, E., Landais, A., Lemieux-Dudon, B., Schilt, A., Masson- Delmotte, V., Buiron, D., Chappellaz, J., Dahl-Jensen, D., Johnsen, S., Leuenberger, M., Loulergue, L., and Oerter, H.: Synchronizing EDML and NorthGRIP ice cores using 18O of atmospheric oxygen ( 18Oatm/ and CH4 measurements over MIS5 (80-123 kyr), Quaternary Sci. Rev., 29, 222–234, 2010.

Carlson, A. E., Stoner, J. S., Donnelly, J. P., and Hillaire-Marcel, C.: Response of the southern Greenland ice sheet during the last two deglaciations, Geology, 36, 359–362, 2008.

Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 3761–3812, 2016 J. Hansen et al.: Ice melt, sea level rise and superstorms 3803 Carton, J. A. and Hakkinen, S.: Introduction to: Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), Deep-Sea Res. Pt. II, 58, 1741–1743, 2011.

Chapman, M. R. and Shackleton, N. J.: Global ice-volume fluctuations, North Atlantic ice-rafting events, and deep-ocean circulation changes between 130 and 70 ka, Geology, 27, 795–798, 1999.

Chappell, J.: Sea level changes forced ice breakouts in the Last Glacial cycle: new results from coral terraces, Quaternary Sci. Rev., 21, 1229–1240, 2002.

Chen, J. H., Curran, H. A., White, B., and Wasserburg, G. J.: Precise chronology of the last interglacial period: 234U-230Th data from fossil coral reefs in the Bahamas, Geol. Soc. Am. Bull, 103, 82– 97, 1991.

Cheng, W., Chiang, J. C. H., and Zhang, D.: Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) in CMIP5 models: RCP and historical simulations, J. Climate, 26, 7187–7198, 2013.

Church, J. A. and White, N. J.: Sea level rise from the late 19th to the early 21st century, Surv. Geophys., 32, 585–602, 2011.

Church, J. A., Clark, P. U., Cazenave, A., Gregory, J. M., Jerejeva, S., Levermann, A., Merrifield, M. A., Milne, G. A., Nerem, R. S., Nunn, P. D., Payne, A. J., Pfeffer, W. T., Stammer, D., and Unnikrishnan, A. S.: Sea level change, in: Climate Change 2013: The Physical Basis, Contribution ofWorking Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, edited by: Stocker, T. F., Qin, D., Plattner, G.-K., Tignor, M., Allen, S. K., Boschung, J., Nauels, A., Xia, Y., Bex, V., and Midgley, P. M., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom, 2013.

Clarke, G. K. C., Leverington, D. W., Teller, J. T., and Dyke, A. S.: Paleohydraulics of the last outburst flood from glacial Lake Agassiz and the 8200 B.P. cold event, Quaternary Sci. Rev., 23, 389–407, 2004.

Colgan,W., Sommers, A., Rajaram, H., Abdalati,W., and Frahm, J.: Considering thermal-viscous collapse of the Greenland ice sheet, Earth’s Future, 3, 252–267, doi:10.1002/2015EF000301, 2015.

Collins, M., Knutti, R., Arblaster, J., Dufresne, J. L., Fichefet, T., Friedlingstein, P., Gao, X., Gutowski, W. J., Johns, T., Krinner, G., Shongwe, M., Tebaldi, C., Weaver, A., and Wehner, M.: Long-term climate change: Projections, commitments and irreversibility, in: Climate Change 2013: The Physical Basis, edited by: Stocker, T. F., Qin, D., Plattner, G.-K., Tignor, M., Allen, S. K., Boschung, J., Nauels, A., Xia, Y., Bex, V., and Midgley, P. M., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom, 2013.

Cortijo, E., Lehman, S., Keigwin, L., Chapman, M., Paillard, D., and Labeyrie, L.: Changes in meridional temperature and salinity gradients in the North Atlantic Ocean (30 -72 N) during the last interglacial period, Paleoceanography, 14, 23–33, 1999.

Cox, R., Zentner, D. B., Kirchner, B. J., and Cook, M. S.: Boulder ridges on the Aran Islands (Ireland): recent movements caused by storm waves, not tsunamis, J. Geol., 120, 249–272, 2012.

Crowley, T. J.: North Atlantic deep water cools the Southern Hemisphere, Paleoceanography, 7, 489–497, 1992.

Crutzen, P. J. and Stoermer, F. F.: The “Anthropocene”, IGBP Newsl., 41, 12–14, 2000.

Cutler, K. B., Edwards, R. L., Taylor, F. W., Cheng, H., Adkins, J., Gallup, C. D., Cutler, P. M., Burr, G. S., and Bloom, A. L.: Rapid sea-level fall and deep-ocean temperature change since the last interglacial period, Earth Planet. Sc. Lett., 206, 253–271, 2003.

Dansgaard, W., Johnsen, S. J., Clausen, H. B., Dahl-Jensen, D., Gudestrup, N. S., Hammer, C. U., Hvidberg, C. S., Steffensen, J.P., Sveinbjornsdottir, A. E., Jouzel, J., and Bond, G.: Evidence for general instability of past climate from a 250-kyr ice-core record, Nature, 364, 218–220, 1993.

de Boer, B., Van de Wal, R. S. W., Bintanja, R., Lourens, L. J., and Tuenter, E.: Cenozoic global ice-volume and temperature simulations with 1-D ice-sheet models forced by benthic 18O records, Ann. Glaciol., 51, 23–33, 2010.

De Boyer Montegut, C., Madec, G., Fisher, A. S., Lazar, A., and Iudicone, D.: Mixed layer depth over the global ocean: an examination of profile data and a profile-based climatology, J. Geophys. Res., 109, C12003, doi:10.1029/2004JC002378, 2004.

De Lavergne, C., Palter, J. B., Galbraith, E. D., Bernardello, R., and Marinov, I.: Cessation of deep convection in the open Southern Ocean under anthropogenic climate change, Nature Clim. Change, 4, 278–282, doi:10.1038/nclimate2132 2014.

Depoorter, M. A., Bamber, J. L., Griggs, J. A., Lenaerts, J. T. M., Ligtenberg, S. R. M., van den Broeke, M. R., and Moholdt, G.: Calving fluxes and basal melt rates of Antarctic ice shelves, Nature, 502, 89–92, 2013.

Deschamps, P., Durand, N., Bard, E., Hamelin, B., Camoin, G., Thomas, A. L., Henderson, G. M., Okuno, J., and Yokoyama, Y.: Ice-sheet collapse and sea-level rise at the Bolling warming 14,600 years ago, Nature, 559–564, 2012.

De Szoeke, S. P. and Xie, S. P., The tropical Pacific seasonal cycle: Assessment of errors and mechanisms in IPCC AR4 coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation models, J. Climate, 21, 2573–2590, 2008.

DeVries, T. and Primeau, F.: Dynamically and observationally constrained estimates of water-mass distributions and ages in the global ocean, J. Phys. Oceanogr., 41, 2381–2401, 2011.

Dickson, R. R., Meincke, J., Malmberg, S. A., and Lee, A. J.: The “great salinity anomaly” in the Northern North Atlantic 1968– 1982, Prog. Oceanogr., 20, 103–151, 1988.

Ditlevsen, P. D., Andersen, K. K., and Svensson, A.: The DOclimate events are probably noise induced: statistical investigation of the claimed 1470 years cycle, Clim. Past, 3, 129–134, doi:10.5194/cp-3-129-2007, 2007.

Drijfhout, S., Oldenborgh, G. J. and Cimatoribus, A.: Is a decline of AMOC causing the warming hole above the North Atlantic in observed and modeled warming patterns?, J. Climate, 25, 8373– 8379, 2012.

Duplessy, J. C., Shackleton, N. J., Fairbanks, R. G., Labeyrie, L., Oppo, P., and Kallel, N.: Deep water source variations during the last climatic cycle and their impact on the global deep water circulation, Paleoceanography, 3, 343–360, 1988.

Durack, P. J. and Wijffels, S. E.: Fifty-year trends in global ocean salinities and their relationship to broad-scale warming, J. Climate, 23, 4342–4362, 2010.

Durack, P. J., Wijffels, S. E., and Matear, R. J.: Ocean salinities reveal strong global water cycle intensification during 1950 to 2000, Science, 336, 455–458, 2012.

Dutton, A. and Lambeck, K.: Ice volume and sea level during the last interglacial, Science, 337, 216–219, 2012.

Dutton, A., Carlson, A. E., Long, A. J., Milne, G. A., Clark, P. U., DeConto, R., Horton, B. P., Rahmstorf, S., and Raymo, M. E.: Sea-level rise due to polar ice-sheet mass loss during past warm periods, Science, 349, aaa4019-1–aaa 4019-9 doi:10.1126/science.aaa4019, 2015.

Elsig, J., Schmitt, J., Leuenberger, D., Schneider, R., Eyer, M., Leuenberger, M., Joos, F., Fischer, H., and Stocker, T. F.: Stable isotope constraints on Holocene carbon cycle changes from an Antarctic ice core, Nature, 461, 507–510, 2009.

Emanuel, K. A.: The dependence of hurricane intensity on climate, Nature, 326, 483–485, 1987.

Emanuel, K. A.: Increasing destructiveness of tropical cyclones over the past 30 years, Nature, 436, 686–688, 2005.

Engel, M., Kindler, P., and Godefroid, F.: Interactive comment on: “Ice melt, sea level rise and superstorms: evidence from paleoclimate data, climate modeling, and modern observations that 2 C global warming is highly dangerous” by J. Hansen et al., Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss., 15, C6270–C6281, 2015.

Engelbrecht, A. C. and Sachs, J. P.: Determination of sediment provenance at drift sites using hydrogen isotopes and unsaturation ratios in alkenones, Geochim. Cosmochim. Acta, 69, 4253– 4265, 2005.

EPICA Community Members: One-to-one coupling of glacial climate variability in Greenland and Antarctica, Nature, 444, 195– 198, 2006.

Fairbanks, R. G.: A 17,000-year glacio-eustatic sea-level recordinfluence of glacial melting rates on the younger rates on the Younger Dryas event and deep-ocean circulation, Nature, 342, 637–642, 1989.

Ferreira, D., Marshall, J., Bitz, C. M., Solomon, S., and Plumb, A.: Antarctic Ocean and sea ice response to ozone depletion: a twotime- scale problem, J. Climate, 28, 1206–1226, 2015.

Fettweis, X., Hanna, E., Lang, C., Belleflamme, A., Erpicum, M., and Gallée, H.: Brief communication “Important role of the midtropospheric atmospheric circulation in the recent surface melt increase over the Greenland ice sheet”, The Cryosphere, 7, 241– 248, doi:10.5194/tc-7-241-2013, 2013.

Fichefet, T., Poncin, C., Goosse, H., Huybrechts, P., Janssens, I., and Le Treut, H.: Implications of changes in freshwater flux from the Greenland ice sheet for the climate of the 21st century, Geophys. Res. Lett., 30, 1911, doi:10.1029/2003GL017826, 2003.

Fischer, H., Schmitt, J., Luthi, D., Stocker, T. F., Tschumi, T., Parekh, P., Joos, F., Kohler, P., Volker, C., Gersonde, R., Barbante, C., Le Floch, M., Raynaud, D., and Wolff, E.: The role of Southern Ocean processes in orbital and millennial CO2 variations – a synthesis, Quaternary Sci. Rev., 29, 193–205, 2010.

Fischer, H., Schmitt, J., Eggleston, S., Schneider, R., Elsig, J., Joos, F., Leuenberger, Stocker, T. F., Kohler, P., Brovkin, V., and Chappellaz, J.: Ice core-based isotopic constraints on past carbon cycle changes, PAGES Magazine, 23, 12–13, 2015.

Flannigan, M., Cantin, A. S., de Groot,W. J.,Wotton, M., Newbery, A., and Gowman, L. M.: Global wildland fire season severity in the 21st century, Forest Ecol. Manag., 294, 54–61, 2013.

Fluckiger, J., Knutti, R., and White, J. W. C.: Oceanic processes as potential trigger and amplifying mechanisms for Heinrich events, Paleoceanography, 21, PA2014, doi:10.1029/2005PA001204, 2006.

Fretwell, P., Pritchard, H. D., Vaughan, D. G., Bamber, J. L., Barrand, N. E., Bell, R., Bianchi, C., Bingham, R. G., Blankenship, D. D., Casassa, G., Catania, G., Callens, D., Conway, H., Cook, A. J., Corr, H. F. J., Damaske, D., Damm, V., Ferraccioli, F., Forsberg, R., Fujita, S., Gim, Y., Gogineni, P., Griggs, J. A., Hindmarsh, R. C. A., Holmlund, P., Holt, J. W., Jacobel, R. W., Jenkins, A., Jokat, W., Jordan, T., King, E. C., Kohler, J., Krabill, W., Riger-Kusk, M., Langley, K. A., Leitchenkov, G., Leuschen, C., Luyendyk, B. P., Matsuoka, K., Mouginot, J., Nitsche, F. O., Nogi, Y., Nost, O. A., Popov, S. V., Rignot, E., Rippin, D. M., Rivera, A., Roberts, J., Ross, N., Siegert, M. J., Smith, A. M., Steinhage, D., Studinger, M., Sun, B., Tinto, B. K., Welch, B. C., Wilson, D., Young, D. A., Xiangbin, C., and Zirizzotti, A.: Bedmap2: improved ice bed, surface and thickness datasets for Antarctica, The Cryosphere, 7, 375–393, doi:10.5194/tc-7-375- 2013, 2013.

Frieler, K., Clark, P. U., He, F., Buizert, C., Reese, R., Ligtenberg, S. R. M., van den Broeke, M. R., Winkelmann, R., and Levermann, A.: Consistent evidence of increasing Antarctic accumulation with warming, Nature Clim. Chan., 5, 348–352, 2015.

Fronval, T. and Jansen, E.: Rapid changes in ocean circulation and heat flux in the Nordic seas during the last interglacial period, Nature, 383, 806–810, 1996.

Galaasen, E. V., Ninnemann, U. S., Irvali, N., Kleiven, H. F., Rosenthal, Y., Kissel, C., and Hodell, D.: Rapid reductions in North Atlantic deep water during the peak of the last interglacial period, Science, 343, 1129–1132, 2014.

Garrett, P. and Gould, S. J.: Geology of New Providence Island, Bahamas, Geol. Soc. Am. Bull., 95, 209–220, 1984.

Gent, P. R. and McWilliams, J. C.: Isopycnal mixing in ocean circulation models, J. Geophys. Res., 20, 150–155, 1990.

Goldberg, D., Holland, D. M., and Schoof, C.: Grounding line movement and ice shelf buttressing in marine ice sheets, J. Geophys. Res., 114, F04026, doi:10.1029/2008JF001227, 2009.

Govin, A., Michel, E., Labeyrie, Laurent,Waelbroeck, C., Dewilde, F., and Jansen, E.: Evidence for northward expansion of Antarctic Bottom Water mass in the Southern Ocean during the last glacial inception, Paleocenography, 24, PA1202, doi:10.1029/2008PA001603, 2009.

Grant, K. M., Rohling, E. J., Bar-Matthews, M., Ayalon, A., Medina-Elizade, M., Ramsey, C. B., Satow, C., and Roberts, A. P.: Rapid couplings between ice volume and polar temperature over the past 150,000 years, Nature, 491, 744–747, 2012.

Greenbaum, J. S., Blankenship, D. D., Young, D. A., Richter, T. G., Roberts, J. L., Aitken, A. R. A., Legresy, B., Schroeder, D. M., Warner, R. C., van Ommen, T. D., and Siegert, M. J.: Ocean access to a cavity beneath Totten Glacier in East Antarctica, Nat. Geosci., 8, 294–298, 2015.

Gregory, J. M., Dixon, K. W., Stouffer, R. J., Weaver, A. J., Driesschaert, E., Eby, M., Fichefet, T., Hasumi, H., Hu, A., Jungclaus, J. H., Kamenkovich, I. V., Levermann, A., Montoya, M., Murakami, S., Nawrath, S., Oka, A., Sokolov, A. P., and Thorpe, R. B.: A model intercomparison of changes in the Atlantic thermohaline circulation in response to increasing atmospheric CO2 concentration, Geophys. Res. Lett., 32, L12703, doi:10.1029/2005GL023209, 2005.

Guillevic, M., Bazin, L., Landais, A., Kindler, P., Orsi, A., Masson-Delmotte, V., Blunier, T., Buchardt, S. L., Capron, E., Leuenberger, M., Martinerie, P., Prié, F., and Vinther, B. M.: Spatial gradients of temperature, accumulation and 18O-ice in Greenland over a series of Dansgaard–Oeschger events, Clim. Past, 9, 1029–1051, doi:10.5194/cp-9-1029-2013, 2013.

Guillevic, M., Bazin, L., Landais, A., Stowasser, C., Masson- Delmotte, V., Blunier, T., Eynaud, F., Falourd, S., Michel, E., Minster, B., Popp, T., Prié, F., and Vinther, B. M.: Evidence for a three-phase sequence during Heinrich Stadial 4 using a multiproxy approach based on Greenland ice core records, Clim. Past, 10, 2115–2133, doi:10.5194/cp-10-2115-2014, 2014.

Hansen, J.: A slippery slope: How much global warming constitutes “dangerous anthropogenic interference”?, Climatic Change, 68, 269–279, 2005.

Hansen, J.: Scientific reticence and sea level rise, Environ. Res. Lett., 2, 024002, doi:10.1088/1748-9326/2/2/024002, 2007.

Hansen, J.: Climate threat to the planet: implications for energy policy and intergenerational justice, Bjerknes lecture, American Geophysical Union, San Francisco, 17 December, available at: pdf (last access: 4 March 2016), 2008.

Hansen, J.: Storms of My Grandchildren, New York, Bloomsbury, 304 pp., 2009.

Hansen, J. and Sato, M.: Predictions Implicit in “Ice Melt” Paper and Global Implications, available at: ~jeh1/mailings/2015/20151012_IceMeltPredictions.pdf, last access: 4 March 2016.

Hansen, J., Lacis, A., Rind, D., Russell, G., Stone, P., Fung, I., Ruedy, R., and Lerner, J.: Climate sensitivity: Analysis of feedback mechanisms, in: Climate Processes and Climate Sensitivity, AGU Geophysical Monograph 29, Maurice Ewing Vol. 5., edited by: Hansen, J. E. and Takahashi, T., American Geophysical Union, 130–163, 1984.

Hansen, J., Sato, M., Ruedy, R., Lacis, A., and Oinas, V.: Global warming in the twenty-first century: an alternative scenario, Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 97, 9875–9880, 2000.

Hansen, J., Sato, M., Ruedy, R., Nazarenko, L., Lacis, A., Schmidt, G. A., Russell, G., Aleinov, I., Bauer, M., Bauer, S. Bell, N., Cairns, B., Canuto, V., Chandler, M., Cheng, Y., Del Genio, A., Faluvegi, G., Fleming, E., Friend, A., Hall, T., Jackman, C., Kelley, M., Kiang, N. Y., Koch, D., Lean, J., Lerner, J., Lo, K., Menon, S., Miller, R. L., Minnis, P., Novakov, T., Oinas, V., Perlwitz, J. P., Perlwitz, J., Rind, D., Romanou, A., Shindell, D., Stone, P., Sun, S., Tausnev, N., Thresher, D.,Wielicki, B.,Wong, T., Yao, M., and Zhang, S.: Efficacy of climate forcings, J. Geophys. Res., 110, D18104, doi:10.1029/2005JD005776, 2005a.

Hansen, J., Nazarenko, L., Ruedy, R., Sato, M.,Willis, J. Del Genio, A., Koch, D., Lacis, A., Lo, K., Menon, S., Novakov, T., Perlwitz, J., Russell, G., Schmidt, G. A., and Tausnev, N.: Earth’s energy imbalance: Confirmation and implications, Science, 308, 1431– 1435, doi:10.1126/science.1110252, 2005b.

Hansen, J., Sato, M., Ruedy, R., Kharecha, P., Lacis, A., Miller, R., Nazarenko, L., Lo, K., Schmidt, G.A., Russell, G., Aleinov, I., Bauer, S., Baum, E., Cairns, B., Canuto, V., Chandler, M., Cheng, Y., Cohen, A., Del Genio, A.,Faluvegi, G., Fleming, E., Friend, A., Hall, T., Jackman, C., Jonas, J., Kelley, M., Kiang, N. Y., Koch, D., Labow, G., Lerner, J., Menon, S., Novakov, T., Oinas, V., Perlwitz, J. P., Perlwitz, J., Rind, D., Romanou, A., Schmunk, R., Shindell, D., Stone, P., Sun, S., Streets, D., Tausnev, N., Thresher, D., Unger, N., Yao, M., and Zhang, S.: Climate simulations for 1880-2003 with GISS modelE, Clim. Dynam., 29, 661–696, doi:10.1007/s00382-007-0255-8, 2007a.

Hansen, J., Sato, M., Kharecha, P., Russell, G., Lea, D. W., and Siddall, M.: Climate change and trace gases, Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A, 365, 1925–1954, doi:10.1098/rsta.2007.2052, 2007b.

Hansen, J., Sato, M., Ruedy, R., Kharecha, P., Lacis, A., Miller, R., Nazarenko, L., Lo, K., Schmidt, G. A., Russell, G., Aleinov, I., Bauer, S., Baum, E., Cairns, B., Canuto, V., Chandler, M., Cheng, Y., Cohen, A., Del Genio, A., Faluvegi, G., Fleming, E., Friend, A., Hall, T., Jackman, C., Jonas, J., Kelley, M., Kiang, N. Y., Koch, D., Labow, G., Lerner, J., Menon, S., Novakov, T., Oinas, V., Perlwitz, Ja., Perlwitz, Ju., Rind, D., Romanou, A., Schmunk, R., Shindell, D., Stone, P., Sun, S., Streets, D., Tausnev, N., Thresher, D., Unger, N., Yao, M., and Zhang, S.: Dangerous human-made interference with climate: a GISS modelE study, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 7, 2287–2312, doi:10.5194/acp-7- 2287-2007, 2007c.

Hansen, J., Sato, M., Kharecha, P., Beerling, D., Berner, R., Masson-Delmotte, V., Pagani, M., Raymo, M., Royer, D. and Zachos, J.: Target Atmospheric CO2: Where Should Humanity Aim?, Open Atmos. Sci. J., 2, 217–231, 2008.

Hansen, J., Ruedy, R., Sato, M., and Lo, K.: Global surface temperature change, Rev. Geophys., 48, RG4004, doi:10.1029/2010RG000345, 2010.

Hansen, J., Sato, M., Kharecha, P., and von Schuckmann, K.: Earth’s energy imbalance and implications, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 11, 13421–13449, doi:10.5194/acp-11-13421-2011, 2011.

Hansen, J., Kharecha, P., Sato, M., Masson-Delmotte, V., Ackerman, F., Beerling, D., Hearty, P. J., Hoegh-Guldberg, O., Hsu, S.-L., Parmesan, C., Rockstrom, J., Rohling, E. J., Sachs, J., Smith, P., Steffen, K., Van Susteren, L., von Schuckmann, K., and Zachos, J. C.: Assessing “dangerous climate change”: Required reduction of carbon emissions to protect young people, future generations and nature, PLOS ONE, 8, e81648, doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0081648, 2013a.

Hansen, J. E., Sato, M., Russell, G., and Kharecha, P.: Climate sensitivity, sea level and atmospheric CO2, Phil. Trans. Roy. Soc. A, 371, 20120294, doi:10.1098/rsta.2012.0294, 2013b.

Hansen, J., Kharecha, P., and Sato, M.: Climate forcing growth rates: Doubling down on our Faustian bargain, Environ. Res. Lett., 8, 011006, doi:10.1088/1748-9326/8/1/011006, 2013c.

Hay, C. C., Morrow, E., Kopp, R. E., and Mitrovica, J. X.: Probabilistic reanalysis of twentieth-century sea-level rise, Nature, 517, 481–484, 2015.

Hays, J. D., Imbrie, J., and Shackleton, N. J.: Variations in the Earth’s orbit: pacemaker of the ice ages, Science, 194, 1121– 1132, 1976.

Hearty, P. J.: Boulder deposits from large waves during the Last Interglaciation on North Eleuthera Island, Bahamas, Quataernary Res., 48, 326–338, 1997.

Hearty, P. J. and Kaufman, D. S.: Whole-rock aminostratigraphy and Quaternary sea-level history of the Bahamas, Quarternary Res., 54, 163–173, 2000.

Hearty, P. J. and Kaufman, D. S.: A high-resolution chronostratigraphy for the central Bahamas Islands based on AMS 14C ages and amino acid ratios in whole-rock and Cerion land snails, Quat. Geochronol., 4, 148–159, 2009.

Hearty, P. J. and Kindler, P.: Sea-level highstand chronology from stable carbonate platforms (Bermuda and Bahamas), J. Coastal Res., 11, 675–689, 1995.

Hearty, P. J. and Neumann, A. C.: Rapid sea level and climate change at the close of the Last Interglaciation (MIS 5e): evidence from the Bahama Islands, Quaternary Sci. Rev., 20, 1881–1895, 2001.

Hearty, P. J., Neumann, A. C., and Kaufman, D. S.: Chevron ridges and runup deposits in the Bahamas from storms late in oxygenisotope substage 5e, Quaternary Res., 50, 309–322, 1998.

Hearty, P., Tormey, B., and Neumann, A.: Discussion of palaeoclimatic significance of co-occurring wind- and water-induced sedimentary structures in the last interglacial coastal deposits from Bermuda and the Bahamas, (Kindler and Strasser, 2000), Sediment. Geol., 131, 1–7; Sediment. Geol., 147, 429–435, 2002.

Hearty, P. J., Hollin, J. T., Neumann, A. C., O’Leary, M. J., and Mc- Culloch, M.: Global sea-level fluctuations during the Last Interglaciation (MIS 5e), Quaternary Sci. Rev., 26, 2090–2112, 2007.

Heinrich, H.: Origin and consequences of cyclic ice rafting in the northeast Atlantic Ocean during the past 130,000 years, Quaternary Res., 29, 142–152, 1988.

Held, I. M., Winton, M., Takahashi, K., Delworth, T., Zeng, F., and Vallis, G. K.: Probing the fast and slow components of global warming by returning abruptly to preindustrial forcing, J. Climate, 23, 2418–2427, 2010.

Hemming, S. R.: Heinrich events: massive late Pleistocene detritus layers of the North Atlantic and their global climate imprint, Rev. Geophys., 42, RG1005, doi:10.1029/2003RG000128, 2004.

Heuze, C., Heywood, K. J., Stevens, D. P., and Ridley, J. K.: Southern Ocean bottom water characteristics in CMIP5 models, Geophys. Res. Lett., 40, 1409–1414, doi:10.1002/grl.50287, 2013.

Heuze, C., Heywood, K. J., Stevens, D. P., and Ridley, J. K.: Changes in global ocean bottom properties and volume transports in CMIP5 models under climate change scenarios, J. Climate, 28, 2917–2944, 2015.

Hills, R. L.: Power from steam: A history of the stationary steam engine, Cambridge University Press, 354 pp., 1993.

Hofmann, M. and Rahmstorf, S.: On the stability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation, Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 106, 20584–20589, 2009.

Hu, A., Meehl, G. A., Han, W., and Yin, J.: Transient response of the MOC and climate to potential melting of the Greenland Ice Sheet in the 21st century, Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L10707, doi:10.1029/2009GL037998, 2009.

Hu, A., Meehl, G. A., Han, W., and Yin, J.: Effect of the potential melting of the Greenland ice sheet on the meridional overturning circulation and global climate in the future, Deep-Sea Res. Pt. II, 58, 1914–1926, 2011.

Huang, B., Banzon, V. F., Freeman, E., Lawrimore, J., Liu, W., Peterson, T. C., Smith, T. M., Thorne, P. W., Woodruff, S. D., and Zhang, H. M.: Extended reconstructed sea surface temperature version 4 (ERSST.v4). Part I: Upgrades and intercomparisons, J. Climate, 28, 911–930, 2015.

Huhn, O., Rhein, M., Hoppema, M., and van Heuven, S.: Decline of deep and bottom water ventilation and slowing down of anthropogenic carbon storage in the Weddell Sea, 1984–2011, Deep- Sea Res. Pt. I, 76, 66–84, 2013.

Huybrechts, P., Janssens, I., Poncin, C., and Fichefet, T.: The response of the Greenland ice sheet to climate changes in the 21st century by interactive coupling of an AOGCM with a thermomechanical ice-sheet model, Ann. Glaciol., 35, 409–415, 2002.

Hwang, Y. T. and Frierson, D. M. W.: Link between the double- Intertropical Convergence Zone problem and cloud biases over the Southern Ocean, Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 110, 4935– 4940, 2013.

IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change): Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis, edited by: Houghton, J. T., Ding, Y., Griggs, D. J., Noguer, M., van der Linden, P. J., Dai, X., Maskell, K., and Johnson, C. A., Cambridge University Press, 881 pp., 2001.

IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change): Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis, edited by: Solomon, S., Dahe, Q., Manning, M., Chen, Z., Marquis, M., Averyt, K. B., Tignor, M., and Miller, H. L., Cambridge University Press, 996 pp., 2007.

IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change): Climate Change 2013, edited by: Stocker, T., Qin, D., Q., Plattner, G. K., Tignor, M. M. B., Allen, S. K., Boschung, J., Nauels, A., Xia, Y., Bex, V., and Midgley, P. M., Cambridge University Press, 1535 pp., 2013.

IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change): Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability, Field, C., Barros, V. R., Dokken, D. J., Mach, K. J., and Mastrandrea, M. D., Cambridge University Press, 1132 pp., 2014.

Irvali, N., Ninnemann, U. S., Galaasen, E. V., Rosenthal, Y., Kroon, D., Oppo, D. W., Kleiven, H. F., Darling, K. F., and Kissel, C.: Rapid switches in subpolar hydrography and climate during the Last Interglacial (MIS 5e), Paleoceanography, 27, PA2207, doi:10.1029/2011PA002244, 2012.

Jackson, L. C., Kahana, R., Graham, T., Ringer, M. A., Woolings, T., Mecking, J. V., and Wood, R. A.: Global and European climate impacts of a slowdown of the AMOC in a high resolution GCM, Clim. Dynam., 45, 3299–3316, 2015.

Jacobs, S. S. and Giulivi, C. F.: Large multidecadal salinity trends near the Pacific-Antarctic continental margin, J. Climate, 23, 4508–4524, 2010.

Jacobs, S. S., Jenkins, A., Giulivi, C. F., and Dutrieux, P.: Stronger ocean circulation and increased melting under Pine Island Glacier ice shelf, Nature Geosci., 4, 519–523, 2011.

Jenkins, A. and Doake, C. S. M.: Ice-ocean interaction on Ronee Ice Shelf, Antarctica, J. Geophys. Res., 96, 791–813, 1991.

Johns,W. E., Baringer, M. O., Beal, L. M., Cunningham, S. A., Kanzow, T., Bryden, H. L., Hirschi, J. J. M., Marotzke, J., Meinen, C. S., Shaw, B., and Curry, R.: Continuous, array-based estimates of Atlantic Ocean heat transport at 26.5 N, J. Climate, 24, 2429– 2449, 2011.

Johnson, G. C., Mecking, S., Sloyan, B. M., and Wijffels, S. E.: Recent bottom water warming in the Pacific Ocean, J. Climate, 20, 5365–5375, 2007.

Jolly, W. M., Cochrane, M. A., Freeborn, P. H., Holden, Z. A., Brown, T. J., Williamson, G. J., and Bowman, D. M. J. S.: Climate-induced variations in global wildfire danger from 1979 to 2013, Nature Commun., 6, 7537, doi:10.1038/ncomms8537, 2015.

Jouzel, J., Masson-Delmotte, V., Cattani, O., Dreyfus, G., Falourd, S., Hoffmann, G., Minster, B., Nouet, J., Barnola, J. M., Chappellaz, J., Fischer, H., Gallet, J. C., Johnsen, S., Leuenberger, M., Loulergue, L., Luethi, D., Oerter, H., Parrenin, F., Raisbeck, G., Raynaud, D., Schilt, A., Schwander, J., Selmo, E., Souchez, R., Spahni, R., Stauffer, B., Steffensen, J. P., Stenni, B., Stocker, T. F., Tison, J. L., Werner, M., and Wolff, E. W.: Orbital and millennial Antarctic climate variability over the past 800,000 years, Science, 317, 793–796, 2007.

Jungclaus, J. H., Haak, H., Esch, M., Roeckner, E., and Marotzke, J.: Will Greenland melting halt the thermohaline circulation?, Geophys. Res. Lett., 33, L17708, doi:10.1029/2006GL026815, 2006.

Kandiano, E. S., Bauch, H. A., and Muller, A.: Sea surface temperature variability in the North Atlantic during the last two glacial-interglacial cycles: comparison of faunal, oxygen isotopic, and Mg/Ca-derived records, Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology, 204, 145–164, 2004.

Keegan, K. M., Albert, M. R., McConnell, J. R., and Baker, I.: Climate change and forest fires synergistically drive widespread melt events of the Greenland Ice Sheet, Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 111, 7964–7967, 2014.

Keeling, R. F. and Stephens, B. B.: Antarctic sea ice and the control of Pleistocene climate instability, Paleoceanography, 16, 112– 131, 2001.

Keigwin, L. D. and Jones, G. A.: Western North Atlantic evidence for millennial-scale changes in ocean circulation and climate, J. Geophys. Res., 99, 12397–12410, 1994.

Kemp, A. C., Horton, B. P., Donnelly, J. P., Mann, M. E., Vermeer, M., and Rahmstorf, S.: Climate related sea-level variations over the past two millennia, Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 108, 11017– 11022, 2011.

Kent, D. V. and Muttoni, G.: Equatorial convergence of India and early Cenozoic climate trends, Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 105, 16065–16070, 2008.

Khan, S. A., Kjaer, K. H., Bevis, M., Bamber, J. L.,Wahr, J., Kjeldsen, K. K., Bjork, A. A., Korsgaard, N. J., Stearns, L. A., van den Broeke, M. R., Liu, L., Larsen, N. K., and Muresan, I. S.: Sustained mass loss of the northeast Greenland ice sheet triggered by regional warming, Nature Clim. Chan., 4, 292–299, 2014.

Khazendar, A., Schodlok, M. P., Fenty, I., Ligtenberg, S. R. M., Rignot, E., and van den Broeke, M. R.: Observed thinning of Totten Glacier is linked to coastal polynya variability, Nature Commun., 4, 2857, doi:10.1038/ncomms3857, 2013.

Kindler, P. and Hearty, P. J.: Carbonate petrology as in indicator of climate and sea-level changes: new data from Bahamian Quaternary units, Sedimentology, 43, 381–399, 1996.

Kindler, P. and Strasser, A.: Palaeoclimatic significance of cooccurring wind- and water-induced sedimentary structures in last-interglacial coastal deposits from Bermuda and the Bahamas, Sediment. Geol., 131, 1–7, 2000.

Kindler, P. and Strasser, A.: Palaeoclimatic significance of cooccurring wind- and water-induced sedimentary structures in last-interglacial coastal deposits from Bermuda and the Bahamas: response to Hearty et al.’s comment, Sediment. Geol., 147, 437–443, 2002.

Kleiven, H. F., Kissel, C., Laj, C., Ninnemann, U. S., Richter, T. O., and Cortijo, E.: Reduced North Atlantic Deep Water coeval with the glacial Lake Agassiz fresh water outburst, Science, 319, 60–64, 2008.

Kohler, P., Fischer, H., Munhoven, G., and Zeebe, R. E.: Quantitative interpretation of atmospheric carbon records over the last glacial termination, Global Biogeochem. Cy., 19, GB4020, doi:10.1029/2004GB002345, 2005.

Kopp, R. E., Simons, F. J., Mitrovica, J. X., Maloof, A. C., and Oppenheimer, M.: Probabilistic assessment of sea level during the last interglacial stage, Nature, 462, 863–867, 2009.

Kuhl, N. and Litt, T.: Quantitative time series reconstruction of Eemian temperature at three European sites using pollen data, Veg. Hist. Archaeobot., 12, 205–214, 2003.
Site Admin
Posts: 30799
Joined: Thu Aug 01, 2013 5:21 am

Re: Ice melt, sea level rise and superstorms: evidence from

Postby admin » Sun May 01, 2016 5:09 am

Part 2 of 2

Lacis, A. A., Schmidt, G. A., Rind, D., and Ruedy, R. A.: Atmospheric CO2: Principal control knob governing Earth’s temperatur, Science, 330, 356–359, doi:10.1126/science.1190653, 2010.

Lacis, A. A., Hansen, J. E., Russell, G. L., Oinas, V., and Jonas, J.: The role of long-lived greenhouse gases as principal LW control knob that governs the global surface temperature for past and future climate change, Tellus B, 65, 19734, doi:10.3402/tellusb.v65i0.19734, 2013.

Lambeck, K. and Chappell, J.: Sea level change through the last glacial cycle, Science, 292, 679–686, 2001.

Lambeck, K., Rouby, H., Purcell, A., Sun, Y., and Sambradge, M.: Sea level and global ice volumes from the Last Glacial Maximum to the Holocene, Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 111, 15296–15303, 2014.

Land, L. S., Mackenzie, F. T., and Gould, S. J.: The Pleistocene history of Bermuda, Bull. Geol. Soc. Amer., 78, 993–1006, 1967.

Landais, A., Masson-Delmotte, V., Stenni, B., Selmo, E., Roche, D. M., Jouzel, J., Lambert, F., Guillevic, M., Bazin, L., Arzel, O., Vinther, B., Gkinis, V., and Popp, T.: A review of the bipolar seesaw from synchronized and high resolution ice core water stable isotope records from Greenland and East Antarctica, Quaternary Sci. Rev., 114, 18–32, 2015.

Large,W. G., McWilliams, J. C., and Doney, S. C.: Oceanic vertical mixing: a review and a model with a nonlocal boundary layer parameterization, Rev. Geophys., 32, 363–403, 1994.

LeGrande, A. N., Schmidt, G. A., Shindell, D. T., Field, C. V., Miller, R. L., Koch, D. M., Faluvegi, G., and Hoffmann, G.: Consistent simulations of multiple proxy responses to an abrupt climate change event, Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 103, 837–842, 2006.

Lehmann, J., Coumou, D., Frieler, K., Eliseev, A., and Levermann, A.: Future changes in extratropical storm tracks and baroclinicity under climate change, Environ. Res. Lett., 9, 084002, doi:10.1088/1748-9326/9/8/084002, 2014.

Lehman, S. J., Sachs, J. P., Crotwell, A. M., Keigwin, L. D., and Boyle, E. A.: Relation of subtropical Atlantic temperature, high-latitude ice rafting, deep water formation, and European climate 130,000-60,000 years ago, Quaternary Sci. Rev., 21, 1917–1924, 2002.

Levitus, S. and Boyer, T. P.:World ocean atlas 1994, vol. 4: Temperature, NOAA Atlas NESDIS 4, US Government Printing Office, Washington, DC, 177 pp., 1994.

Levitus, S., Antonov, J., and Boyer, T. P.: World ocean atlas 1994, vol. 3: Salinity, NOAA Atlas NESDIS 3, US Government Printing Office, Washington, DC, 99 pp., 1994.

Li, C., Battisti, D. S., Schrag, D. P., and Tziperman, E.: Abrupt climate shifts in Greenland due to displacements of the sea ice edge, Geophys. Res. Lett., 32, L19702, doi:10.1029/2005GL023492, 2005.

Li, C., Battisti, D. S., and Bitz, C. M.: Can North Atlantic sea ice anomalies account for Dansgaard-Oeschger climate signals?, J. Climate, 23, 5457–5475, 2010.

Lisiecki, L. E. and Raymo, M. E.: A Pliocene-Pleistocene stack of 57 globally distributed benthic 18O records, Paleoceanography, 20, PA1003, doi:10.1029/2004PA001071, 2005.

Lozier, M. S.: Overturning in the North Atlantic, Annu. Rev. Mar. Sci., 4, 291–315, 2012.

Lumpkin, R. and Speer, K.: Global ocean meridional overturning, J. Phys. Oceanogr., 37, 2550–2562, 2007.

Luthi, D., Le Floch, M., Bereiter, B., Blunier, T., Barnola, J. M., Siegenthaler, U., Raynaud, D., Jouzel, J., Fischer, H., Kawamura, K., and Stocker, T. F.: High-resolution carbon dioxide concentration record 650,000–800,000 years before present, Nature, 453, 379–382, 2008.

MacAyeal, D. R.: Binge/purge oscillations of the Laurentide icesheet as a cause of the North-Atlantic’s Heinrich events, Paleoceanography, 8, 775–784, 1993.

Machguth, H., MacFerrin, M., van As, D., Box, J. E., Charallampos, C., Colgan, W., Fausto, R. S., Meijer, H. A. J., Mosley- Thompson, E., and van de Wal, R. S. W.: Greenland meltwater storage in firn limited by near-surface ice formation, Nature Clim. Change, doi:10.1038/nclimate2899, online first, 2016.

Manabe, S. and Stouffer, R. J.: Multiple-century response of a coupled ocean-atmosphere model to an increase of atmospheric carbon dioxide, J. Climate, 7, 5–23, 1994.

Manabe, S. and Stouffer, R. J.: Simulation of abrupt climate change induced by freshwater input to the North Atlantic Ocean, Nature, 378, 165–167, 1995.

Marcott, S. A., Clark, P. U., Padman, L., Klinkhammer, G. P., Springer, S. R., Liu, Z., Otto-Bliesner, B. L., Carlson, A. E., Ungerer, A., Padman, J., He, F., Cheng, J., and Schmittner, A.: Iceshelf collapse from subsurface warming as a trigger for Heinrich events, Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 108, 13415–13419, doi:10.1073/pnas.1104772108, 2011.

Marcott, S. A., Bauska, T. K., Buizert, C., Steig, E. J., Rosen, J. L., Cuffey, K. M., Fudge, T. J., Severinghaus, J. P., Ahn, J., Kalk, M. L., McConnell, J. R., Sowers, T., Taylor, K. C., White, J. W. C., and Brook, E. J.: Centennial-scale changes in the global carbon cycle during the last deglaciation, Nature, 514, 616-619, 2014.

Marshall, G. J.: Trends in the Southern Annular Mode from observations and reanalyses, J. Climate, 16, 4134–4143, 2003.

Marshall, J. and Speer, K.: Closure of the meridional circulation through Southern Ocean upwelling, Nat. Geosci., 5, 171–180, 2012.

Martin, J. H. and Fitzwater, S. E.: Iron deficiency limits phytoplankton growth in the north-east Pacific subarctic, Nature, 331, 341– 343, 1988.

Martinez-Garcia, A., Sigman, D. M., Ren, H., Anderson, R., Straub, M., Hodell, D., Jaccard, S., Eglinton, T. I., and Haug, G. H.: Iron fertilization of the subantarctic ocean during the last ice age, Science, 343, 1347–1350, 2014.

Martinson, D. G., Pisias, N. G., Hays, J. D., Imbrie, J., Moore, T. C., and Shackleton, N. J.: Age dating and the orbital theory of the ice ages: development of a high-resolution 0 to 300,000-year chronostratigraphy, Quatern. Res., 27, 1–29, 1987.

Masson-Delmotte, V., Jouzel, J., Landais, A., Stievenard, M., Johnsen, S. J., White, J.W. C.,Werner, M., Sveinbjornsdottir, A., and Fuhrer, K.: GRIP deuterium excess reveals rapid and orbitalscale changes in Greenland moisture origin, Science, 309, 118– 121, doi:10.1126/science.1108575, 2005.

Masson-Delmotte, V., Dreyfus, G., Braconnot, P., Johnsen, S., Jouzel, J., Kageyama, M., Landais, A., Loutre, M.-F., Nouet, J., Parrenin, F., Raynaud, D., Stenni, B., and Tuenter, E.: Past temperature reconstructions from deep ice cores: relevance for future climate change, Clim. Past, 2, 145–165, doi:10.5194/cp-2-145- 2006, 2006.

Masson-Delmotte, V., Stenni, B., Pol, K., Braconnot, P., Cattani, O., Falourd, S., Kageyama, M., Jouzel, J., Landais, A., Minster, B., Barnola, J.M., Chappellaz, M., Krinner, G., Johnsen, S., Röthlisberger, R., Hansen, J., Mikolajewicz, U., and Otto-Bliesner, B.: EPICA Dome C record of glacial and interglacial intensities Quaternary Sci. Rev., 29, 113–128, doi:10.1016/j.quascirev.2009.09.030, 2010.

Masson-Delmotte, V., Buiron, D., Ekaykin, A., Frezzotti, M., Gallée, H., Jouzel, J., Krinner, G., Landais, A., Motoyama, H., Oerter, H., Pol, K., Pollard, D., Ritz, C., Schlosser, E., Sime, L. C., Sodemann, H., Stenni, B., Uemura, R., and Vimeux, F.: A comparison of the present and last interglacial periods in six Antarctic ice cores, Clim. Past, 7, 397–423, doi:10.5194/cp-7- 397-2011, 2011.

Masson-Delmotte, V., Schulz, M., Abe-Ouchi, A., Beer, J., Ganopolski, A., Gonzalez Rouco, J. F., Jansen, E., Lambeck, K., Luterbacher, J., Naish, T., Osboorn, T., Otto-Bliesner, B., Quinn, T., Ramexh, R., Rojas, M. Shao, X., and Timmermann, A.: Information from paleoclimate Archives, in: Climate Change 2013: The Physical Basis, edited by: Stocker, T. F., Qin, D., Plattner, G.-K., Tignor, M., Allen, S. K., Boschung, J., Nauels, A., Xia, Y., Bex, V., and Midgley, P. M., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom, 2013.

May, S. M., Engel, M., Brill, D., Cuadra, C., Lagmay, A. M. F., Santiago, J., Suarez, J. K., Reyes, M., and Brückner, H.: Block and boulder transport in Eastern Samar (Philippines) during Supertyphoon Haiyan, Earth Surf. Dynam., 3, 543–558, doi:10.5194/esurf-3-543-2015, 2015.

Menviel, L., Joos, F., and Ritz, S. P.: Simulating atmospheric CO2, 13C and the marine carbon cycle during the last glacialinterglacial cycle: possible role for a deepening of the mean remineralization depth and an increase in the oceanic nutrient inventory, Quaternary Sci. Rev., 56, 46–68, 2012.

Mercer, J. H.: West Antarctic ice sheet and CO2 greenhouse effect: a threat of disaster, Nature, 271, 321–325, 1978.

Miller, R. L., Schmidt, G. A., Nazarenko, L. S., Tausnev, N., Bauer, S. E., Del Genio, A. D., Kelley, M., Lo, K. K., Ruedy, R., Shindell, D. T., Aleinov, I., Bauer, M., Bleck, R., Canuto, V., Chen, Y.-H., Cheng, Y., Clune, T. L., Faluvegi, G., Hansen, J. E., Healy, R. J., Kiang, N. Y., Koch, D., Lacis, A., LeGrande, A. N., Lerner, J., Menon, S., Oinas, V., Pérez García-Pando, C., Perlwitz, J. P., Puma, M., Rind, D., Romanou, A., Russell, G., Sato, M., Sun, S., Tsigaridis, K., Unger, N., Voulgarakis, A., Yao, M.-S., and Zhang, J.: CMIP5 historical simulations (1850-2012) with GISS ModelE2, J. Adv. Model. Earth Syst., 6, 441–477, doi:10.1002/2013MS000266, 2014.

Mishchenko, M. I., Cairns, B., Kopp, G., Schueler, C. F., Fafaul, B. A., Hansen, J. E., Hooker, R. J., Itchkawich, T., Maring, H. B., and Travis, L. D.: Accurate monitoring of terrestrial aerosols and total solar irradiance: Introducing the Glory mission, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 88, 677–691, doi:10.1175/BAMS-88-5-677, 2007.

Morlighem, M., Rignot, E., Mouginot, J., Seroussi, H., and Larour, E.: Deeply incised submarine glacial valleys beneath the Grenland ice sheet, Nat. Geosci., 7, 418–422, 2014.

Munk, W. and Wunsch, C.: Abyssal recipes II: energetics of tidal and wind mixing, Deep-Sea Res. Pt. I, 45, 1977–2010, 1998.

Myhre, G., Shindell, D., Breon, F., Collins, W., Fuglestvedt, J., Huang, J., Koch, D., Lamarque, J. F., Lee, D., Mendoza, B., Nakajima, T., Robock, A., Stephens, G., Takemura, T., and Zhang, H: Anthropogenic and natural climate forcing, in: Climate Change 2013: The Physical Basis, edited by: Stocker, T. F., Qin, D., Plattner, G.-K., Tignor, M., Allen, S. K., Boschung, J., Nauels, A., Xia, Y., Bex, V., and Midgley, P. M., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom, 2013.

Mylroie, J. E.: Late Quaternary sea-level position: evidence from Bahamian carbonate deposition and dissolution cycles, Quaternary Int., 183, 61–75, 2008.

Neff, W., Compo, G., Ralph, F. M., and Shupe, M.D.: Continental heat anomalies and the extreme melting of the Greenland ice surface in 2012 and 1989, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 119, 6520– 6536, 2014.

Nerem, R. S., Chanmber, D. P., Choe, C., and Mitchum, G. T.: Estimating mean sea level change from the TOPEX and Jason altimeter missions, Mar. Geod., 33, 435–446, 2010.

Neumann, A. C. and Hearty, P. J.: Rapid sea-level changes at the close of the last interglacial (substage 5e) recorded in Bahamian island geology, Geology, 24, 775–778, 1996.

NGRIP (North Greenland Ice Core Project members): High-resolution record of Northern Hemisphere climate extending into the last interglacial period, Nature, 4341, 147–151, 2004.

Ohkouchi, N., Eglinton, T. I., Keigwin, L. D., and Hayes, J. M.:Spatial and temporal offsets between proxy records in a sediment drift, Science, 298, 1224–1227, 2002.

Ohmura, A.: Completing the world glacier inventory, Ann. Glaciol., 50, 144–148, 2009.

Ohshima, K. I., Fukamachi, Y., Williams, G. D., Nihashi, S., Roquet, F., Kitade, Y., Tamura, T., Hirano, D., Herraiz- Borreguero, L., Field, I., Hindell, M., Aoki, S., and Watasuchi, M.: Antarctic bottom water production by intense sea-ice formation in the Cape Darnley polynya, Nat. Geosci., 6, 235–240, 2013.

O’Leary, M. J., Hearty, P. J., Thompson, W. G., Raymo, M. E., Mitrovica, J. X., andWebster, J. M.: Ice sheet collapse following a prolonged period of stable sea level during the last interglacial, Nat. Geosci., 6, 796–800, doi:10.1038/NGEO1890, 2013.

Oppo, D. W., McManus, J. F., and Cullen, J. L.: Evolution and demise of the last interglacial warmth in the subpolar North Atlantic, Quaternary Sci. Rev., 25, 3268–3277, 2006.

Orsi, A. H., Johnson, G. C., and Bullister, J. L.: Circulation, mixing, and production of Antarctic bottom water, Progr. Oceanogr., 43, 55–109, 1999.

Paillard, D.: Glacial cycles: toward a new paradigm, Rev. Geophys., 39, 325–346, 2001.

PALAEOSENS Project Members: Rohling, E. J., Sluijs, A., Dijkstra, H. A., Köhler, P., van de Wal, R. S. W., von der Heydt, A. S., Beerling, D. J., Berger, A., Bijl, P. K., Crucifix, M., De- Conto, R., Drijfhout, S. S., Fedorov, A., Foster, G. L., Ganopolski, A., Hansen, J., Hönisch, B., Hooghiemstra, H., Huber, M., Huybers, P., Knutti, R., Lea, D. W., Lourens, L. J., Lunt, D., Masson-Delmotte, V., Medina-Elizalde, M., Otto-Bliesner, B., Pagani, M., Pälike, H., Renssen, H., Royer, D. L., Siddall, M., Valdes, P., Zachos, J. C., and Zeebe, R. E.: Making sense of palaeoclimate sensitivity, Nature, 491, 683–691, doi:10.1038/nature11574, 2012.

Paolo, F. S., Fricker, H. A., and Padman, L.: Volume loss from Antarctic ice shelves is accelerating, Science, 348, 327–331, 2015.

Parrenin, F., Masson-Delmotte, V., Kohler, P., Raynaud, D., Paillard, D., Schwander, Barbante, C., Landais, A., Wegner, A., and Jouzel, J.: Synchronous change of atmospheric CO2 and Antarctic temperature during the last deglacial warming, Science, 339, 1060–1063, 2013.

Pedro, J. B., Rasmussen, S. O., and van Ommen, T. D.: Tightened constraints on the time-lag between Antarctic temperature and CO2 during the last deglaciation, Clim. Past, 8, 1213–1221, doi:10.5194/cp-8-1213-2012, 2012.

Peltier, W. R. and Fairbanks, R. G.: Global glacial ice volume and Last Glacial Maximum duration from an extended Barbados sea level record. Quartern Sci. Rev., 25, 3322–3337, 2006.

Petersen, S. V., Schrag, D. P., and Clark, P. U.: A new mechanism for Dansgaard-Oeschger cycles, Paleoceanography, 28, 24–30, 2013.

Pol, K., Masson-Delmotte, V., Cattani, O., Debret, M., Falourd, S., Jouzel, J., Landais, A., Minster, B., Mudelsee, M., Schulz, M., and Stenni, B.: Climate variability features of the last interglacial in the East Antarctic EPICA Dome C ice core, Geophys. Res. Lett., 41, 4004–4012, doi:10.1002/2014GL059561, 2014.

Pollard, D., DeConto, R. M., and Alley, R. B.: Potential Antarctic ice sheet retreat driven by hydrofracturing and ice cliff failure, Earth Planet. Sc. Lett., 412, 112–121, 2015.

Pritchard, H. D., Ligtenberg, S. R. M., Fricker, H. A., Vaughan, D. G., van den Broeke, M. R., and Padman, L.: Antarctic ice-sheet loss driven by basal melting of ice shelves, Nature, 484, 502–505, 2012.

Purkey, S. G. and Johnson, G. S.: Antarctic bottom water warming and freshening: contributions to sea level rise, ocean freshwater budgets, and global heat gain, J. Climate, 26, 6105–6122, 2013.

Rahmstorf, S.: Rapid climate transitions in a coupled ocean-atmosphere model, Nature, 372, 82–85, 1994.

Rahmstorf, S.: Bifurcations of the Atlantic thermohaline circulation in response to changes in the hydrological cycle, Nature, 378, 145–149, 1995.

Rahmstorf, S.: On the freshwater forcing and transport of the Atlantic thermohaline circulation, Clim. Dynam., 12, 799–811, 1996.

Rahmstorf, S., Box, J. E., Feulner, G., Mann, M. E., Alexander, R., Rutherford, S., and Schaffernicht, E. J.: Exceptional twentieth-century slowdown in Atlantic Ocean overturning circulation, Nature Clim. Change, 5, 475–480, 2015.

Rasmussen, S. O., Bigler, M., Blockley, S. P., Blunier, T., Buchardt, S. L., Clausen, H. B., Cvijanovic, I., Dahl-Jensen, D., Johnsen, S. J., Fischer, H., Gkinis, V., Guillevic, M., Hoek, W. Z., Lowe, J. J., Pedro, J. B., Popp, T., Seierstad, I. K., Steffensen, J. P., Svensson, A. M., Vallelonga, P., Vinther, B. M.,Walker, M. J. C., Wheatley, J. J., and Winstrup, M.: A stratigraphic framework for abrupt climatic changes during the Last Glacial period based on three synchronized Greenland ice-core records: refining and extending the INTIMATE event stratigraphy, Quaternary Sci. Rev., 106, 14–28, 2014.

Rasmussen, T. L., Oppo, D. W., Thomsen, E., and Lehman, S. J.: Deep sea records from the southeast Labrador Sea: ocean circulation changes and ice-rafting events during the last 160,000 years, Paleoceanography, 18, 1018, doi:10.1029/2001PA000736, 2003.

Raymo, M. E.: The timing of major climate terminations, Paleoceanography, 12, 577–585, 1997.

Rayner, D., Hirschi, J. J.-M., Kanzow, T., Johns, W. E., Wright, P. G., Frajka-Williams, E., Bryden, H. L., Meinen, C. S., Baringer, M. O., Marotzke, J., Beal, L. M., and Cunningham, S. A.: Monitoring the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation, Deep Sea Res. Pt. II, 58, 1744–1753, 2011.

Rhein, M., Rintoul, S. R., Aoki, S., Campos, E., Chamber, D., Feely, R. A., Gulev, S., Johnson, G. C., Josey, S. A., Kostianoy, A., Mauritzen, C. Roemmich, D., Talley, L. D., and Wang, F.: Observations: Ocean, in: Climate Change 2013: The Physical Basis, Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, edited by: Stocker, T. F., Qin, D., Plattner, G.-K., Tignor, M., Allen, S. K., Boschung, J., Nauels, A., Xia, Y., Bex, V., and Midgley, P. M., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom, 2013.

Ridgwell, A. and Arndt, S.: Why dissolved organics matter: DOC in ancient oceans and past climate change, in: Biogeochemistry of Marine Dissolved Organic Matter, edited by: Hansell, D. A. and Carlson, C. A., Elsevier, Amsterdam, 713 pp., ISBN 978-0- 12-405940-5, 2015.

Rignot, E. and Jacobs, S. S.: Rapid bottom melting widespread near Antarctic ice sheet grounding lines, Science, 296, 2020–2023, 2002.

Rignot, E. and Steffen, K.: Channelized bottom melting and stability of floating ice shelves, Geophys. Res. Lett., 35, L02503, doi:10.1029/2007GL031765, 2008.

Rignot, E., Koppes, M., and Velicogna, I.: Rapid submarine melting of the calving faces of West Greenland glaciers, Nat. Geosci., 3, 187–191, 2010.

Rignot, E., Velicogna, I., van den Broeke, M. R., Monaghan, A., and Lenaerts, J. T. M.: Acceleration of the contribution of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets to sea level rise, Geophys. Res. Lett., 38, L05503, doi:10.1029/2011GL046583, 2011.

Rignot, E., Jacobs, S., Mouginot, J., and Scheuchl, B.: Ice shelf melting around Antarctica, Science, 341, 266–270, doi:10.1126/science.1235798, 2013.

Rignot, E., Mouginot, J., Morlighem, M., Seroussi, H., and Scheuchl, B.: Widespread, rapid grounding line retreat of Pine Island, Thwaites, Smith, and Kohler glaciers, West Antarctica, from 1992 to 2011, Geophys. Res. Lett., 41, 3502–3509, 2014.

Rinterknecht, V., Jomelli, V., Brunstein, D., Favier, V., Masson- Delmotte, V., Bourles, D., Leanni, L., and Schlappy, R.: Unstable ice stream in Greenland during the Younger Dryas cold event, Geology, 42, 759–762, 2014.

Rintoul, S.: Rapid freshening of Antarctic Bottom Water formed in the Indian and Pacific oceans, Geophys. Res. Lett., 34, L06606, doi:10.1029/2006GL028550, 2007.

Robinson, A., Calov, R., and Ganopolski, A.: Multistability and critical thresholds of the Greenland ice sheet, Nature Clim. Change, 2, 429–432, doi:10.1038/NCLIMATE1449, 2012.

Robson, J., Hodson, D., Hawkins, E., and Sutton, R.: Atlantic overturning in decline?, Nat. Geosci., 7, 2–3, 2014.

Roche, D., Paillard, D., and Cortijo, E.: Constraints on the duration and freshwater release of Heinrich event 4 through isotope modelling, Nature, 432, 379–382, 2004.

Roemmich, D., Church, J., Gilson, J., Monselesan, Sutton, P., and Wijffels, S.: Unabated planetary warming and its ocean structure since 2006, Nature Clim. Chan., 5, 240–245, 2015.

Rohling, E. J., Grant, K., Bolshaw, M., Roberts, A., Siddall, M., Hemleben, C., and Kucera, M.: Antarctic temperature and global sea level closely coupled over the past five glacial cycles, Nat. Geosci., 2, 500–504, 2009.

Ruddiman,W. F.: The atmospheric greenhouse era began thousands of years ago, Climate Change, 61, 261–293, 2003.

Ruddiman, W. F.: The Anthropocene, Ann. Rev. Earth Planet. Sci., 41, 45–68, doi:10.1146/annurev-earth-050212-123944, 2013.

Russell, G. L., Miller, J. R., and Rind, D.: A coupled atmosphere-ocean model for transient climate change studies, Atmos. Ocean., 33, 683–730, 1995.

Ruth, U., Barnola, J.-M., Beer, J., Bigler, M., Blunier, T., Castellano, E., Fischer, H., Fundel, F., Huybrechts, P., Kaufmann, P., Kipfstuhl, S., Lambrecht, A., Morganti, A., Oerter, H., Parrenin, F., Rybak, O., Severi, M., Udisti, R., Wilhelms, F., and Wolff, E.: “EDML1”: a chronology for the EPICA deep ice core from Dronning Maud Land, Antarctica, over the last 150 000 years, Clim. Past, 3, 475–484, doi:10.5194/cp-3-475-2007, 2007.

Rye, C. D., Naveira Garabato, A. C., Holland, P. R., Meredith, M. P., Norser, A. J. G., Hughes, C.W., Coward, A. C., and Webb, D. J.: Rapid sea-level rise along the Antarctic margins in response to increased glacial discharge, Nat. Geosci., 7, 732–735, 2014.

Saba, V. S., Griffies, S. M., Anderson, W. G., Winton, M., Alexander, M. A., Delworth, T. L., Hare, J. A., Harrison, M. J., Rosati, A., Vecchi, G. A., and Zhang, R.: Enhanced warming of the Northwest Atlantic Ocean under climate change, J. Geophys. Res., 121 118–132, doi:10.1002/2015JC011346, 2016.

Sachs, J. P. and Lehman, S. J.: Subtropical North Atlantic temperatures 60,000-30,000 years ago, Science, 286, 756–759, 1999.

Sato, M., Hansen, J. E., McCormick, M. P., and Pollack, J. B.: Stratospheric aerosol optical depths, 1850–1990, J. Geophys. Res., 98, 22987–22994, doi:10.1029/93JD02553, 1993.

Schilt, A., Baumgartner, M., Schwander, J., Buiron, D., Capron, E., Chappellaz, J., Loulergue, L., Schupach, S., Spahni, R., Fischer, H., and Stocker, T. F.: Atmospheric nitrous oxide during the last 140,000 years, Earth Planet. Sc. Lett., 300, 33–43, 2010.

Schmidt, G. A., Ruedy, R., Hansen, J., Aleinov, I., Bell, N., Bauer, M., Bauer, S., Cairns, B., Canuto, V., Cheng, Y., Del Genio, A., Faluvegi, G., Friend, A. D., Hall, T. M., Kelley, M., Kiang, N. Y., Koch, D., Lacis, A. A., Lerner, J., Lo, K. K., Miller, R. L., Nazarenko, L., Oinas, V., Perlwitz, J. P., Perlwitz, J., Rind, D., Romanou, A., Russell, G.L., Sato, M., Shindell, D. T., Stone, P. H., Sun, S., Tausnev, N., Thresher, D., Yao, M. S.: Present day atmospheric simulations using GISS modelE: comparison to insitu, satellite and reanalysis data, J. Climate, 19, 153–192, 2006.

Schmidtko, S., Heywood, K. J., Thompson, A. F., and Aoki, S.: Multidecadal warming of Antarctic waters, Science, 346, 1227– 1231, 2014.

Schmitt, J., Schneider, R., Elsig, J., Leuenberger, D., Lourantou, A., Chappellaz, J., Kohler, P., Joos, F., Stocker, T. F., Leuenberger, M., and Fischer, H.: Carbon isotope constraints on the deglacial CO2 rise from ice cores, Science, 336, 711–714, 2012.

Schmittner, A., Latif, M., and Schneider, B.: Model projections of the North Atlantic thermohaline circulation for the 21st century assessed by observations, Geophys. Res. Lett., 32, L23710, doi:10.1029/2005GL024368, 2005.

Schulz, M.: On the 1470-year pacing of Dansgaard- Oeschger warm events, Paleoceanography, 17, 1014, doi:10.1029/2000PA000571, 2002.

Shaffer, G., Olsen, S. M., and Bjerrum, C. J.: Ocean subsurface warming as a mechanism for coupling Dansgaard-Oeschger climate cycles and ice-rafting events, Geophys. Res. Lett., 31, L24202, doi:10.1029/2004GL020968, 2004.

Shakun, J. D., Clark, P. U., He, F., Marcott, S. A., Mix, A. C., Liu, Z., Otto Bliesner, B., Schmittner, A., and Bard, E.: Global warming preceded by increasing carbon dioxide concentrations during the last deglaciation, Nature, 484, 49–54, 2012.

Sheen, K. L., Naveira Garabato, A. C., Brearley, J. A., Meredith, M. P., Polzin, K. L., Smeed, D. A., Forryan, A., King, B. A., Sallee, J. B., St.Laurent, L., Thurnherr, A. M., Toole, J. M., Waterman, S. N., and Watson, A. J.: Eddy-induced variability in Southern Ocean abyssal mixing on climatic timescales, Nat. Geosci., 7, 577–582, 2014.

Shepherd, A., Ivins, E. R., A, G., Barletta, V. R., Bentley, M. J., Bettadpur, S., Briggs, K. H., Bromwich, D. H., Forsberg, R., Galin, N., Horwath, M., Jacobs, S., Joughin, I., King, M. A., Lenaerts, J. T. M., Li, J., Ligtenberg, S. R. M., Luckman, A., Luthcke, S. B., McMillan, M., Meister, R., Milne, G., Mouginot, J., Muir, A., Nicolas, J. P., Paden, J., Payne, A. J., Pritchard, H., Rignot, E., Rott, H., Sørensen, L. S., Scambos, T. A., Scheuchl, B., Schrama, E. J. O., Smith, B., Sundal, A. V., van Angelen, J. H., van de Berg, W. J., van den Broeke, M. R., Vaughan, D. G., Velicogna, I., Wahr, J., Whitehouse, P. L., Wingham, D. J., Yi, D., Young, D., and Zwally, H. J.: A reconciled estimate of ice-sheet mass balance, Science, 338, 1183–1189, 2012.

Sigman, D. M. and Boyle, E. A.: Glacial/interglacial variations in atmospheric carbon dioxide, Nature, 407, 859–869, 2000.

Sigmond, M. and Fyfe, J. C.: The Antarctic ice response to the ozone hole in climate models, J. Climate, 27, 1336–1342, 2014.

Sirocko, F., Seelos, K., Schaber, K., Rein, B., Dreher, F., Diehl, M., Lehne, R., Jager, K., Krbetshek, M., and Degering, D.: A late Eemian aridity pulse in central Europe during the last glacial inception, Nature, 436, 833–836, 2005.

Skinner, L. C., Fallon, S., Waelbroeck, M. E., and Barker, S.: Ventilation of the deep Southern Ocean and deglacial CO2 rise, Science, 328, 1147–1151, 2010.

Solomon, S., Daniel, J. S., Sanford, T. J., Murphy, D. M., Plattner, G. K., Knutti, R., and Friedlingstein, P.: Persistence of climate changes due to a range of greenhouse gases, Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 107, 18354–18359, 2010.

Srokosz, M., Baringer, M., Bryden, H., Cunningham, S., Delowrth, T., Lozier, S., Marotzke, J., and Sutton, R.: Past, present, and future changes in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 93, 1663–1676, 2012.

Stenni, B., Buiron, D., Frezzotti, M., Albani, S., Barbante, C., Bard, E., Barnola, J.M., Baroni, M., Baumgartner, M., Bonazza, M., Capron, E., Castellano, E., Chappellaz, J., Delmonte, B., Falourd, S., Genoni, L., Iacumin, P., Jouzel, J., Kipfstuhl, S., Landais, A., Lemieux-Dudon, B., Maggi, V., Masson-Delmotte, V., Mazzola, C., Minster, B., Montagnat, M., Mulvaney, R., Narcisi, B., Oerter, H., Parrenin, F., Petit, J. R., Ritz, C., Scarchilli, C., Schilt, A., Schüpbach, S., Schwander, J., Selmo, E., Severi, M., Stocker, T. F., and Udisti, R.: Expression of the bipolar see-saw in Antarctic climate records during the last deglaciation, Nat. Geosci., 4, 46–49, 2011.

Stirling, C. H., Esat, T. M., Lambeck, K., and McCulloch, M. T.: Timing and duration of the last interglacial: evidence for a restricted interval of widespread coral reef growth, Earth Planet. Sc. Lett., 160, 745–762, 1998.

Stocker, T. F.: The seesaw effect, Science, 282, 61–62, 1998.

Stocker, T. F. and Johnsen, S. J.: A minimum thermodynamic model for the bipolar seesaw, Paleoceanography, 18, 1087, doi:10.1029/2003PA000920, 2003.

Stocker, T. F. and Wright, D. G.: Rapid transitions of the ocean’s deep circulation induced by changes in surface water fluxes, Nature, 351, 729–732, 1991.

Sutterley, T., Velicogna, I., Rignot, E., Mouginot, J., Flament, T., van den Broeke, M., van Wessem, J. M., and Reijmer, C. H.: Mass loss of the Amundsen Sea Embayment of West Antarctica from four independent techniques, Geophys. Res. Lett., 4, 8421– 8428, 2014.

Swingedouw, D., Braconnot, P., Delecluse, P., Guilyardi, E., and Marti, O.: Quantifying the AMOC feedbacks during a 2 CO2 stabilization experiment with land-ice melting, Clim. Dynam., 29, 521–534, 2007.

Swingedouw, D., Mignot, J., Braconnot, P., Mosquet, E., Kageyama, M., and Alkama, R.: Impact of freshwater release in the North Atlantic under different climate conditions in an OAGCM, J. Climate, 22, 6377–6403, 2009.

Swingedouw, D., Rodehacke, C. B., Olsen, S. M., Menary, M., Gao, Y., Mikolajewicz, U., and Mignot, J.: On the reduced sensitivity of the Atlantic overturning to Greenland ice sheet melting in projections: a multi-model assessment, Clim. Dynam., 44, 3261– 3279, doi:10.1007/s00382-014-2270-x, 2014.

Talley, L. D.: Closure of the global overturning circulation through the Indian, Pacific, and Southern Oceans, Oceanography, 26, 80– 97, 2013.

Tedesco, M., Fettweis, X., van den Broeke, M. R., van de Wal, R. S. W., Smeets, C. J. P. P., van de Berg, W. J., Serreze, M. C., and Box, J. E.: The role of albedo and accumulation in the 2010 melting record in Greenland, Environ. Res. Lett., 6, 014005/1– 014005/6, doi:10.1088/1748-9326/6/1/014005, 2011.

Tedesco, M., Fettweis, X., Mote, T., Wahr, J., Alexander, P., Box, J. E., and Wouters, B.: Evidence and analysis of 2012 Greenland records from spaceborne observations, a regional climate model and reanalysis data, The Cryosphere, 7, 615–630, doi:10.5194/tc- 7-615-2013, 2013.

Thompson, D. W. J., Solomon, S., Kushner, P. J., England, M. H., Grise, K. M., and Karoly, D. J.: Signatures of the Antarctic ozone hole in Southern Hemisphere surface climate change, Nat. Geosci., 4, 741–749, 2011.

Toggweiler, J. R.: Variation of atmospheric CO2 by ventilation of the ocean’s deepest water, Paleoceanography, 14, 571–588, 1999. Toggweiler, J. R., Russell, J. L., and Carson, S. R.: Midlatitude westerlies, atmospheric CO2, and climate change during the ice ages, Paleoceanography, 21, PA2005, doi:10.1029/2005PA001154, 2006.

Tormey, B. R.: Evidence of rapid climate change during the last interglacial in calcarenites of Eleuthera, Bahamas. Master’s Thesis, Univ North Carolina, Chapel Hill, 149 pp., 1999.

Tormey, B. R. and Donovan, B. G.: Run over, run up and run out: a storm wave origin for fenestral porosity in last interglacial eolianites of the Bahamas, GSA Abstracts with Programs, Vol. 47, No. 2, 2015.

Tschumi, T., Joos, F., Gehlen, M., and Heinze, C.: Deep ocean ventilation, carbon isotopes, marine sedimentation and the deglacial CO2 rise, Clim. Past, 7, 771–800, doi:10.5194/cp-7-771-2011, 2011.

United Nations: Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), United Nations, New York, NY, available at: http: // (last access: 3 March 2016), 1992.

United States National Climate Assessment (USNCA): Climate Change Impacts in the United States: The Third National Climate Assessment, edited by: Melillo, J. M., Richmond, T. C., and Yohe, G. W., U.S. Global Change Research Program, 841 pp., doi:10.7930/J0Z31WJ2, 2014.

Vacher, H. L. and Rowe, M. P.: Geology and hydrogeology of Bermuda, in: Geology and Hydrogeology of Carbonate Islands, edited by: Vacher, H. L., and Quinn, T., Devel. Sedimentol., Elsevier, 54, 35–90, 1997.

Vaughan, D. G., Bamber, J. L., Giovinetto, M., Russell, J., and Cooper, A. P. R.: Reassessment of net surface mass balance in Antarctica, J. Climate, 12, 933–946, 1999.

Vaughan, D. G., Comiso, J. C., Allison, I., Carrasco, J., Kasaer, G., Kwok, R., Mote, P., Murray, T., Paul, F., Ren, J., Rignot, E., Solmina, O., Steffen, K., and Zhang, T.: Observations: Cryosphere, in: Climate Change 2013: The Physical Basis, edited by: Stocker, T. F., Qin, D., Plattner, G.-K., Tignor, M., Allen, S. K., Boschung, J., Nauels, A., Xia, Y., Bex, V., and Midgley, P. M., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom, 2013.

Velicogna, I., Sutterley, T. C., and van den Broeke, M. R.: Regional acceleration in ice mass loss from Greenland and Antarctica using GRACE time-variable gravity data, Geophys. Res. Lett., 41, 8130–8137, doi10.1002/2014GL061052, 2014.

Veres, D., Bazin, L., Landais, A., Toyé Mahamadou Kele, H., Lemieux-Dudon, B., Parrenin, F., Martinerie, P., Blayo, E., Blunier, T., Capron, E., Chappellaz, J., Rasmussen, S. O., Severi, M., Svensson, A., Vinther, B., and Wolff, E. W.: The Antarctic ice core chronology (AICC2012): an optimized multi-parameter and multi-site dating approach for the last 120 thousand years, Clim. Past, 9, 1733–1748, doi:10.5194/cp-9-1733-2013, 2013.

Visbeck, M., Marshall, J., Haine, T., and Spall, M.: Specification of eddy transfer coefficients in coarse resolution ocean circulation models, J. Phys. Oceanogr., 27, 381–402, 1997.

Vizcaino, M., Mikolajewicz, U., Groger, M., Maier-Reimer, E., Schurgers, G., and Winguth, A. M. E.: Long-term ice sheetclimate interactions under anthropogenic greenhouse forcing simulated with a complex Earth System Model, Clim. Dynam., 31, 665–690, 2008.

Von Schuckmann, K., Palmer, M. D., Trenberth, K. E., Cazenave, A., Chambers, D., Champollion, N. Hansen, J., Josey, S. A., Loeb, N., Mathieu, P. P., Meyssignac, B., and Wild, M.: An imperative to monitor Earth’s energy imbalance, Nature Clim. Change, 6, 138–144, doi:10.1038/nclimate2876, 2016.

Wanless, H. R. and Dravis, J. J.: Carbonate Environments and Sequences of Calcos Platform. Field Trip Guidebook T374, 28th International Geological Congress, American Geophysical Union, 75 pp., 1989.

Watson, A. J. and Garabato, A. C. N.: The role of Southern Ocean mixing and upwelling in glacial-interglacial atmospheric CO2 change, Tellus, 58B, 73–87, 2006.

Watson, C. S., White, N. J., Church, J. A., King, M. A., Burgette, R. J., and Legresy, B.: Unabated global mean sea-level rise over the satellite altimeter era, Nature Clim. Change, 5, 565–568, 2015.

Weaver, A. J., Eby, M., Kienast, M., and Saenko, O. A.: Response of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation to increasing atmospheric CO2: sensitivity to mean climate state, Geophys. Res. Lett., 34, L05708, doi:10.1029/2006GL028756, 2007.

Williams, G. D., Meijers, A. J. S., Poole, A., Mathiot, P., Tamura, T., and Klocker, A.: Late winter oceanography off the Sabrina and BANZARE coast (117–128 E), East Antarctica, Deep-Sea Res. Pt. II, 58, 1194–1210, 2011.

Winton, M., Anderson, W. G., Delworth, T. L., Griffies, S. M., Hurlin, W. J., and Rosati, A.: Has coarse ocean resolution biased simulations of transient climate sensitivity?, Geophys. Res. Lett., 41, 8522–8529, 2014.

Wunsch, C.: What is the thermohaline circulation?, Science, 298, 1179–1180, 2002.

Wunsch, C.: Quantitative estimate of the Milankovitch-forced contribution to observed Quaternary climate change, Quaternary Sci. Rev., 23, 1001–1012, 2004.

Wunsch, C. and Ferrari, R., Vertical mixing, energy, and the general circulation of the oceans, Annu. Rev. Fluid. Mech., 36, 281–314, 2004.

Yasunari, T. J., Koster, R. D., Lau, W. K. M., and Kim, K. M.: Impact of snow darkening via dust, black carbon, and organic carbon on boreal spring climate in the Earth system, J. Geophys. Res. Atmos., 120, 5485–5503, doi:10.1002/2014jd022977, 2015.

Yokoyama, Y., Esat, T. M., and Lambeck, K.: Coupled climate and sea-level changes deduced from Huon Peninsula coral terraces of the last ice age, Earth Planet. Sc. Lett., 193, 579–587, 2001.

Zachos, J., Pagani, M., Sloan, L., Thomas, E., and Billups, K.: Trends, rhythms, and aberrations in global climate 65 Ma to present, Science, 292, 686–693, 2001.
Site Admin
Posts: 30799
Joined: Thu Aug 01, 2013 5:21 am

Re: Ice melt, sea level rise and superstorms: evidence from

Postby admin » Sun May 01, 2016 5:46 am



1. Where ocean depth exceeds 1000 m, these conditions yield D D1000 m, thus excluding any first-order abyssal bathymetric imprint on upper ocean eddy energy, consistent with theory and observations. The other objective of the stated condition is to limit release of potential energy in the few ocean gridboxes with ocean depth less than 400 m, because shallow depths limit the ability of baroclinic eddies to release potential energy via vertical motion.

2. Other parts of Fig. 27 are discussed later, but they are most informative if aligned together. In interpreting Fig. 27, note that long-lived greenhouse gas amounts in ice cores have global relevance, but ice core temperatures are local to Greenland and Antarctica. Also, because our analysis does not depend on absolute temperature, we do not need to convert the temperature proxy, ɤ(18) O, into an estimated absolute temperature. We include CH4 and N2O in the total GHG climate forcing, but we do not discuss the reasons for CH4 and N2O variability (see Schilt et al., 2010), because CO2 provides ~80% of the GHG forcing.

3. The tight fit of CO2 and Antarctic temperature (Fig. 28a) implies an equilibrium Antarctic sensitivity of 20° C for 2 CO2 (4 Wm(-2) forcing (200→300 ppm forcing is ~2.3 Wm(-2); Table 1 of Hansen et al., 2000) and thus 10 C global climate sensitivity (Antarctic temperature change is around twice that of global change) with CO2 taken as the ultimate control knob, i.e., if snow/ice area and other GHGs are taken to be slaves to CO2-driven climate change. This implies a conventional climate sensitivity of 4° C for 2 x CO2, as GHG and albedo forcings are similar for glacial-to-interglacial climate change and non-CO2 GHGs account for ~20% of the GHG forcing. The inferred sensitivity is reduced to 2.5–3° C for 2 x CO2 if, as some studies suggest, global mean glacial–interglacial temperature change is only about one-third of the Antarctic temperature change (Palaeosens, 2012; Hansen et al., 2013b).

4. For comparison, our assumed freshwater injection of 360 Gt year(-1) in 2011 with 10-year doubling yields an average mass loss of 292 Gt year(-1) for 2003–2013. Further, Velicogna et al. (2014) find an ice mass loss of 74±7 Gt year(-1) from nearby Canadian glaciers and ice caps with acceleration of 10±2 Gt year(-2), and there is an unknown freshwater input from melting ice shelves. Thus our assumed Northern Hemisphere meltwater was conservative.

5. Planetary energy imbalance induced by meltwater cooling helps provide the energy required by ice heat of fusion. Ice melt to raise sea level 1m requires a 10-year Earth energy imbalance 0.9Wm(-2) (Table S1; Hansen et al., 2005b).
Site Admin
Posts: 30799
Joined: Thu Aug 01, 2013 5:21 am


Return to Planet on Fire

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 0 guests